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Now on to week 13.
A Quick Piece of Advice…One More Time
There is no room left for excuses. At this point in the season, we have ALL dealt with injuries. We have ALL battled through our bye weeks. We have ALL left points on the table.
If I could give you one piece of advice before the stretch run, it would be something I have emphasized all year: listen to expert advice…but trust your gut first.
Again, none of us have the time to really study fantasy football full time. It is impossible (well, for those of us who have real jobs) to completely keep track of every single player, every matchup, every injury, and every game. If you don’t have a good read on a player or a matchup, you should definitely consult “the experts.”
However, so much of fantasy football comes back to gut feelings.
If you have a gut feeling that Ryan Grant is going to run all over the Giants this week, and that gut is based on some stats or game play that you have actually seen, go for it! Even if the expert disagrees, I would rather go down on my own terms. Believe me, you will hate yourself if Grant goes off and you started Chris Johnson just because that’s what the expert said.
If you are ambivalent and have no opinion, seek counsel…but don’t be afraid to trust your gut on the tough calls.
Last Week’s Picks: 17 for 25 (68 %)
- Hits: Matt Moore, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, Carson Palmer, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Jonathan Stewart, Roy Helu, Mike Tolbert, KC Running Backs, Percy Harvin, Laurent Robinson, Anquan Boldin, Devin Hester, Jermichael Finley
- Misses: Josh Freeman, Tim Tebow, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brandon Jacobs, Pierre Garcon (picked the wrong Colt), Mario Manningham, Johnny Knox, Kellen Winslow
Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.
Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 13: QB
Start Em QB: Tim Tebow
Fantastic matchup against a Minnesota team that has been reeling lately without Adrian Peterson.
Tebow and the Broncos will be playing in the dome up in Minnesota, which means both he AND Von Miller will play even faster. I expect Tebow to run wild and for Miller and the incredibly fast Broncos’ defense to force several turnovers.
If Tebow gets a few shots with a short field, he should put up a lot of points this week.
Still not convinced? He’s 21st in points this year…after starting only 6 games. He’s only 11 points behind Jay Cutler. Tebow is a must-start right now as the fantasy playoffs approach…amazing.
Tim Tebow Fantasy Projections for Week 13: 200 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; 80 rushing yards, 1 TD.
Other start ‘em QBs for Week Twelve:
- Philly QB – Whether it’s Vick or Young, I think that the Eagles will explode in a game that doesn’t matter.
- Tony Romo – In Arizona, against their atrocious secondary.
- Alex Smith – Enticing matchup against St. Louis in a game that the 49ers want to win big in order to get their mojo back.
You might be tempted to start Matty Ice this week since Houston will be starting T.J. Yates with Jake Delhomme waiting in the wings. While it’s true that Atlanta should get more chances than normal, Houston’s defense is one of the top five units in the league, and should make it incredibly tough sledding on Matt Ryan.
If Houston can control clock at all with their fantastic running game, Matt Ryan owners will be in for a long afternoon.
Matt Ryan Week 13 Fantasy Projection: 220 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT
Other sit ’em QBs for Week Twelve:
- Andy Dalton – He’s really good…but so is Pittsburgh’s defense.
- QB’s in the KC/Chi game – LOL…don’t even look at this game.
I’ve been skeptical of Tebow from a fantasy standpoint ever since he took over the starting job, mostly because I worried about him getting pulled. But with a 5-1 record, the playoffs in reach, and Kyle Orton gone, Tebow is safe through the end of the year. And this is a great matchup, even though Minnesota’s strength is against the run. I’d play him.
I agree that Ryan’s potential is a bit muted this week. Loved him last week, lukewarm on him this week.
Tony Romo is a top 5 fantasy QB this week. Start him. With confidence. (Which means, since it’s Romo, that you should expect him to suck. Because wouldn’t that just be the Romo thing to do?)
Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 13: RBs
Start Em RB: LeGarrette Blount
Blount is ranked 30th overall among fantasy running backs right now, so that makes him on the cusp of starting nearly every single week. This week, he’s a must start against Carolina.
In fact, Blount may have the best fantasy week among ALL running backs in week 13.
Carolina’s run defense is so bad they made Donald Brown relevant last week. Just imagine what someone with actual talent will do against them.
LeGarrette Blount’s Week 13 Projected Stats: 180 rushing yards, 2 TD; 55 receiving yards
Other start ‘em RBs for Week Twelve:
- LeSean McCoy – If he only gets ten rushes this week, we will all light ourselves on fire.
- Chris Johnson – He’s back, and facing the Buffalo defense. Big week again for CJ2K.
- Denver Broncos….duh.
Sit Em RB: Shonn Greene
I admit that this is a complete hunch. I try to base nearly all of my predictions on statistical evidence or game play that I have actually seen…but I feel compelled to put Shonn Greene on the bench this week.
First of all, Washington has a pretty decent defense, especially on the ground (13th in yards per attempt). Secondly, I really think that they will try to make Mark Sanchez win two consecutive games. I really don’t think anyone will be fooled by his 4-TD performance last week.
Washington will force Sanchez to do it again in order for NY to win. He might. But Shonn Greene will have another lackluster effort.
Shonn Greene Week 13 Projection: 45 yards rushing
Other sit ’em RBs for Week Thirteen:
- Rashard Mendenhall – Pitt will have to win this game through the air against the Bengals.
- Detroit Running Backs – On the road in New Orleans…if this game isn’t high scoring, that means that the Saints won big.
Wow, recommending Chris Johnson two straight weeks. I can’t believe it’s true, but it is. He seems safe. (Of course, what I really can’t believe is true is how quickly confidence has been lost in CJ. But such is the case when you have a season like he’s had.)
Be careful sitting Mendenhall. Certainly he hasn’t lived to the billing of a top 5 back (like some idiot analysts predicted before the season started…analysts who will remain nameless to protect our pride here at MSF) but he always has the potential for 80-90 yards and a score. That’s tough to find with a high degree of confidence this late in the season.
Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 13: WRs
Start Em WR: Antonio Brown
He has been a little hit or miss lately, but I think that he will have a great game against Cincinnati this week.
Brown is an absolute terror from the slot, and Cincinnati will definitely be trying to limit Mendenhall on the ground and Mike Wallace from any big plays.
Watch for Brown to play extremely well.
Antonio Brown fantasy football Week 13 projection: 9 receptions, 120 yards, 1 TD
Other start ‘em WRs for Week Twelve:
- Laurent Robinson – It seems like Romo picks a new random dude every year to become his go-to guy halfway through the season. As long as Miles Austin is out, expect Robinson to put up some good numbers. (Yes, I copied this from the last two weeks…I still feel the same way, even though Miles Austin could play this week.)
- Eric Decker – If Tebow throws for more yards, and I think he will, Decker will definitely be the number one recipient.
- Vincent Jackson – This game might as well be meaningless for San Diego…so they should win by 60.
Sit Em WR: Dwyane Bowe
The Bears defense is good…and Tyler Palko is almost as good as me.
No…I’m not good at all.
Dwyane Bowe fantasy football Week 13 projection: 3 catches for 45 yards
Other Sit ‘em WRs for Week Thirteen:
- Julio Jones – Bad day for Matt Ryan AND him…Roddy White is the only ATL non-RB I like this week.
- Brandon Lloyd – I don’t know if you have heard, but San Francisco’s defense is really good.
I love Antonio Brown and am always willing to find an excuse to sit Dwayne Bowe, so I concur with those picks.
As for Lloyd, I love the 49ers defense, but I also love #1 WRs who have the trust of their QB. St. Louis will have to throw the ball, which means plenty of targets for Lloyd. Careful sitting him. He’s not a top 10 WR this week, but I think he’s still top 20.
Any #1 receiver against Minnesota is a good play, so Decker gets the nod this week.
Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 13: TEs
Start Em TE: Greg Olsen
The Tampa defense will do their best to limit Steve Smith this week, and Olsen will reap the benefits.
Greg Olsen fantasy football Week 13 projection: 7 receptions, 80 yards, 1 TD
Sit Em TE: Owen Daniels
A lot of times, young QB’s = good days for Tight Ends. But boy, is TJ Yates low on the totem pole. Sure, he may not be Jake Delhomme, but…oh wait.
That’s right. Jake Delhomme.
I will stop talking right now.
Owen Daniels fantasy football Week 13 projection: 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD
One could also make the case that the young QB (or the old one, if Delhomme sees any action) will rely on his tight end more. Still, I wouldn’t trust any Houston pass catchers this week, and that includes Andre Johnson.
I continue to like Vernon Davis down the stretch, so consider him a top-10 option. Brent Celek is also a guy who is playing well and warrants consideration.
Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 13: D/ST
Start Em D/ST: Denver Broncos
Who would have thought that by Week 13 Tim Tebow would be a must-start and the Broncos’ defense would also be a must-start? Well, it’s happened. And with Denver’s relentless pass rush and solid secondary facing rookie Christian Ponder with perhaps no Adrian Peterson, the Broncos are a good choice yet again.
Denver Broncos fantasy football Week 13 projection: 14 or fewer points, 4 sacks, 2 turnovers
Other start ’em D/ST units:
- The Patriots’ D is facing Indy. Start ’em!
- Atlanta’s defense is a sneaky start this week. Their strength is stopping the run, which is what Houston does well. Surely they’ll be able to contain T.J. Yates. If you think Atlanta can hold Foster and Tate down, they’re worthy of starting.
Sit Em S/ST: Green Bay Packers and New York Giants
The Packers’ D isn’t a terrible option because they do force turnovers, but I expect this game to be high scoring with both quarterbacks putting up very good numbers. There just isn’t a lot of upside here on either side.
Packers and Giants fantasy football Week 13 projection: Lots of points, lots of yards, a few turnovers for the Packers
Other sit ’em D/ST units:
- Jacksonville’s season is over, their coach just got fired, and the Chargers come in trying to salvage some pride. I think they do, and put up a lot of primetime points on the Jags in the process.
- I was high on Seattle’s defense last week, then they gave up 20+ points at home to Washington. Philly and all of its weapons comes a calling this week. No thanks.
Good luck in Week 13 everybody! We’ll see you in the comments.
And remember: Go here and leave a comment! By doing so, you’ll be entered to win tickets to the Big Ten Championship game! (And enter quickly. We have to choose a winner tomorrow early afternoon.)