Week Three is over, and you are probably wondering one thing: How is a guy that’s giving such great advice 0-3 in his own fantasy league?
I wish I knew…injuries have just killed me…and I’ve lost each week by an average of 1.2 points. Just heartbreaking.
Some of you are probably in the same boat as me. Even if you aren’t, it’s the time in the fantasy football season when leagues are won and lost. Now is when we have to start making the tough calls.
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Maybe you chose to ride Chris Johnson through the first three weeks because you spent so much money on him and “he is just too good to keep failing.” You can’t be stubborn any longer. It’s time to cut your losses and start doing the unthinkable…it’s time to start other guys that are just having better years, or maybe even cut someone you felt good about going in.
Don’t be afraid to admit your mistakes. The worst thing you could ever do is hold onto a guy too long, or keep starting a guy every week, just because you want to prove that you were right at the beginning. You may be 0-3, but all you need to do is get into the playoffs…then, anything can happen.
Let’s quickly recap my picks from last week and then look ahead to Week 4. Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.
Week Three Recap
Overall – 26 for 45 (58%)
Best Player Predictions: 3 for 4
Hits: Tom Brady, Maurice Jones-Drew, Rob Gronkowski
Misses: Brandon Marshall
Start Em Predictions: 2 for 4
Hits: Rex Grossman, Santana Moss,
Misses: Rashard Mendenhall, Brent Celek
Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 10 for 16
Hits: Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, LeSean McCoy, Fred Jackson, Shonn Greene, Ray Rice, Larry Fitzgerald, Dustin Keller, Tony Gonzalez, Owen Daniels
Misses: Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, Reggie Wayne, AJ Green, Steve Smith, Jermaine Gresham
Worst Player Predictions: 3 for 4
Hits: Matt Cassell, Denarius Moore, Todd Heap
Misses: Colts’ RBs
Sit Em Predictions: 2 for 4
Hits: Jahvid Best, Dallas Clark,
Misses: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dwayne Bowe
Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 6 for 13
Hits: Donovan McNabb, Kerry Collins, Julio Jones, Jeremy Maclin, Santonio Holmes, Ben Watson
Misses: Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Darren McFadden, Packers’ Running Backs, Adrian Peterson, Scott Chandler, Jimmy Graham
Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Quarterbacks
Projected Best Performer: Matt Stafford
Stafford (as long as he stays healthy) will be a Top 5 Fantasy QB at the end of the year, and the Dallas secondary should provide little resistance. Expect a lot of points in this old-school battle of Thanksgiving Day football teams.
Matthew Stafford Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 375 yards, 4 TDs
Start Em QB: Ben Roethlisberger
Pittsburgh’s appalling lack of commitment to the running game is one of the biggest surprises of this season. I’m not sure if their philosophy has changed (possible), if they have realized Mendenhall isn’t that good (very possible), if their offensive line has regressed yet again (probably), or if a combination of all three has happened (most likely). Either way, start Big Ben with confidence this week against the Texans.
Ben Roethlisberger Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 330 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Other Start ‘Em QBs for Week Four:
- Eli Manning – Lots of yards against Arizona’s porous secondary.
- Philip Rivers – Bounce back game after a lackluster game against the Chiefs
- Matt Hasselbeck – Expect him to play very well until the inevitable injury in week 8.
- Jay Cutler – Having a very solid season despite the storyline.
Projected Worst Performer: Kyle Orton
And you thought the Tebow chants were loud in week one? I almost feel bad for Orton at this point. A horrible game against Green Bay will about seal his fate and future with the Broncos.
Kyle Orton Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 180 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs
Sit Em QB: Joe Flacco
Joe Flacco has really come out with a huge season so far, and I actually expect it to continue. He has some very good weapons, and he appears to have made a “leap” of sorts. However, I just hate the matchup this week. The Jets will be angry and ready to prove to the world on Sunday Night Football that what happened in Oakland was a fluke.
Joe Flacco Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 225 Yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Other Sit ‘Em QBs for Week Four:
- Matt Cassel – Minnesota’s defense is underrated, and I think they will finally finish a game.
- Blaine Gabbert – Obvious reasons.
- Matt Schaub – Troy Polamalu looks really fast again…this is bad news for the rest of the league.
- Chad Henne – After a ho-hum win over Kansas City, San Diego’s entire team will rebound well this week.
Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Running Backs
Projected Best Performer: Adrian Peterson
The best running back in the league is going against the worst team in the league…and his coach will probably ride him hard in order to not blow another huge lead.
Adrian Peterson Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 160 yards, 1 TD; 65 receiving yards, 1 TD
Start Em RB: BJGE – The Law Firm
I think the Pats’ passing attack is fantastic, but Coach Belichik also knows that they will eventually need to be able to run the ball once winter sets in. A lot of people will be expecting a lot of fast-paced drives and big plays in Oakland this week, but I think the Pats surprise a lot of people and start grinding it out a little more. Look for the Law Firm to have a big day.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 90 yards, 2 TDs; 65 receiving yards
Other Start ‘Em RBs for Week Four:
- Brandon Jacobs – He looked fresh on Sunday, and he’s also becoming more of a threat out of the backfield.
- Fred Jackson – Big day for Jackson against the Bengals.
- Jahvid Best – Massive day for Detroit players…yet again.
- Michael Turner – Playing the Seahawks…enough said.
Projected Worst Performer: Texans’ Running Backs
The Colts had a decent night running the ball because they had no other choice…and Pittsburgh wasn’t really prepared for it. The Texans, on the other hand, will try to establish their passing attack first, and if the Steelers shut it down, Houston will find itself trailing early. Add to that the fact that seemingly all of their running backs have nagging injuries, and I foresee a rough day for Houston RBs…no matter who is lined up in the backfield.
Ben Tate and Arian Foster Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 38 yards; 44 receiving yards
Sit Em RB: Ray Rice
I know I have been burned by doubting Ray Rice before, but I really hate their matchup this week against New York. I don’t expect the Ravens to get an early lead like they did against the Steelers, and I’m afraid that Rice will only get something like 11 carries and a few receptions this week. If that happens, Rice owners will be in for a long day.
Ray Rice Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 49 yards; 36 receiving yards
Other Sit ‘Em RBs for Week Four:
- Daniel Thomas – I need him to do it again against somebody legit.
- James Starks – I saw Ryan Grant in person this week…and he looks like he’s COMPLETELY back from injury. Look for the Packers to gradually stop splitting the load between the two backs.
- Denver Running Backs – Green Bay might have the best rushing defense in the league.
- Cowboys Running Backs – If Green Bay isn’t first, Detroit is.
Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Wide Receivers
Projected Best Performer: Megatron
After last week’s performance, I’m penciling him into this spot until he blows out his knee in 4 places and even then…I will need to make sure he isn’t in the lineup.
Start Em WR: Plaxico Burress
Once again, Sanchez really loves him in the red zone, and I think he will get a lot of chances against Baltimore’s good, but smallish secondary.
Plaxico Burress Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 5 Catches for 75 yards and 2 TDs
Other Start ‘Em WRs for Week Four:
- Reggie Wayne – Painter is his guy…and he’s in the starting lineup.
- Roddy White – Finally the performance his owners have been waiting for.
- AJ Green – He’s good! I promise! Buffalo is also a good matchup for him.
- Wes Welker – As long as their TEs are banged up and Chad Ochocinco is an option, expect Welker to have monster days.
Projected Worst Performer: Sidney Rice
One of those games where nothing goes right for Seattle. You know, like all of their other games that don’t come against NFC West opponents.
Sidney Rice Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 3 catches for 25 yards
Sit Em WR: Dwayne Bowe
Minnesota’s secondary actually isn’t that bad. If you take out Megatron and one 60 yard reception by Best, Stafford actually had a pretty modest day against them. Well, Dwayne Bowe is not Megatron…and the Chiefs are awful. Bowe will be in for a long day against the Vikings.
Dwayne Bowe Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 4 catches for 38 yards.
Other Sit ‘Em WRs for Week Four:
- Chad Ochocinco – I just wanted to give myself an easy point for my record next week.
- Steve Smith 1.0 – Tough day for the Newtons.
- Jeremy Maclin – Just not the same player without Michael Vick, plus he’s injured and may not even play.
- Anquan Boldin – Revis Island.
Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Tight Ends
Projected Best Performer: Rob Gronkowski
See above, Megatron.
Rob Gronkowski Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 12 catches for 120 yards and 1 TD.
Start Em TE: Greg Olsen
I witnessed, first hand, the worst safety in the league on Sunday: Craig Steltz for the Bears…and boy did he win that award easily. His biggest problem is covering tight ends, as evidenced by Jermichael Finley’s outstanding day. The Panthers won’t have a great day against the Bears, but expect big things from Olsen.
Greg Olsen Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 9 catches for 100 yards a 1 TD.
Other Start ‘Em TEs for Week Four:
- Jermichael Finley – He’s baaaa-aack.
- Jimmy Graham – He’s quickly becoming one of Brees’ favorite targets.
- Tony Gonzalez – Just a touchdown machine at this point. Even though I don’t like to chase touchdowns, Gonzo is almost good for one a game.
- Jermaine Gresham – Buffalo showed us last week that they have a hard time defending the pass, and especially tight ends.
Projected Worst Performer: Owen Daniels
Troy Polamalu is back to roving the middle of the field. This is bad news for Daniels.
Owen Daniels Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 3 catches for 15 yards.
Sit Em TE: Vernon Davis
Philly has done a very good job of defending tight ends this year. Besides Tony Gonzalez’s unbelievable catch on Monday Night Football, they have basically shut them down. Look for Davis to have a rough week this week against the Eagles.
Vernon Davis Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 5 catches for 45 yards
Other Sit ‘Em TEs for Week Four:
- Heath Miller – Pitt’s WRs will get a lot more action this week.
- Ben Watson – I still don’t trust him.
- Kellen Winslow – Will be forced to help out with pass protection against Freeney and Mathis more than he wants.
Best of luck in Week 4! Pose your Week 4 questions below.
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