Remember in the movie Men In Black how they had that little device that could wipe someone’s memory clean? After last week, I wouldn’t mind someone doing that to me.
Though I did a good job answering specific questions with all relevant lineup/league info (as I feel I usually do), Week 9 was certainly less than stellar with respect to the top-line picks.
While I nailed Eli Manning as a start and Seattle’s D as a sit…that was pretty much it. See below. The carnage was ugly.
But you know me. Bad weeks only motivate me more to dig deeper into the numbers and trends. I am committed to making Week 10 a much more accurate week over all…as much for your teams as for my own.
I am writing this while watching Monday Night Football. I need a 20 point night from Mike Wallace to pull out a win in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*, and with the Steelers up 17-7 and Wallace not having a TD yet, that seems unlikely. If I lose, I’ll be 5-4 and in pretty serious need of a winning streak to ensure I at least make the playoffs.
Remember, the stakes are the Super Bowl, so you know I’m overturning every stone in an effort to win – like my last minute of pick up of Seyi Atirotutu on Sunday (see, it wasn’t all bad!). The upshot is that I regurgitate all of this research into these columns, hopefully helping you out in the process.
Before we delve into the Week 10 start ’em, sit ’em picks, here are two quick notes and then a quick recap of how I did in Week 9 (ugh) with the top-line picks:
- Make sure you use your correct email address when commenting below. A random commenter will be chosen for a free P&G gift pack. Last week’s winner was commenter nik. Who will win this week?
- Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week
Week 9 recap:
- Start ’em hits: Eli Manning,
- Start ’em misses: Matt Forte, Calvin Johnson, Todd Heap, New England D
- Sit ’em hits: Seattle Seahawks D
- Sit ’em misses: Matthew Stafford, Steve Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, Cedric Benson
Fantasy Football Week 10 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A
Note: the following teams are on bye in Week 10:
- San Diego Chargers
- Oakland Raiders
- New Orleans Saints
- Green Bay Packers
Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.
If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.
Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ’em QB: David Garrard, Jacksonville (v Houston)
If you read this week’s waiver wire sleepers column, you know that David Garrard is my “gold star pickup of the week.” Why? Well look no further than the Houston Texans pass defense. This porous unit has given up 20 TDs in 8 games this year, and is one of the most targetable defensive units I can remember in my history playing fantasy football.
Also, Garrard has not been a slouch this year, despite his shoddy reputation. Sure, he’s been inconsistent, but that’s who he is. David Garrard is inconsistent. It’s a tenet of fantasy football.
But he has thrown for at least two TDs in four of his seven starts this year, and the games he struggled in were against the solid pass defenses of Tennessee, Philly, and San Diego. Against more suspect pass defenses like Dallas and Buffalo, Garrard has taken advantage. And suspect would be a kind way of describing Houston’s pass D.
Worth noting as well: Garrard has historically been much better at home than away. He is absolutely a must start this week. He’ll be in my top 10, the question is will he be top 5?
David Garrard fantasy football Week 10 projection: 250 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Other start ’em QBs for Week 10:
- Michael Vick against Washington’s generous pass defense is an obvious play.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick actually had a decent showing against a very tough Bears defense. He faces the much more forgiving Detroit secondary in Week 10.
- Whoever starts for the Lions – Matthew Stafford or Shaun Hill (but not Drew Stanton, I don’t trust him) – is a solid start against the Buffalo Bills.
- Eli Manning is a very good start at home against Dallas. He torched them a few weeks ago and the Giants are red hot right now. The Cowboys are the opposite of red hot.
Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ’em QB: Brett Favre, Minnesota (at Chicago)
I know that you Brett Favre owners probably had the old man on your bench in Week 9 (a wise move, despite the result) and had to watch him put up two TDs and 446 passing yards. You are probably itching to get him in your lineup this week, especially if you have Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, or Aaron Rodgers.
Unfortunately for you (or perhaps fortunately), I am here to throw some cold water on you with the following realities:
- The Bears have allowed only five passing touchdowns all season
- Favre continues to start and finish most games, but he gets older and more dinged up each week. Don’t you think the physical Bears will try everything they can to smack their old nemesis around? Favre staying healthy is a major risk each week for the rest of the season.
- The numbers Brett put up last week were against a very weak Cardinals pass D. Sidney Rice is not expected to be back at full strength by next Sunday (though he should play) meaning Favre will have to go against the Bears’ secondary with Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian, and Greg Camarillo again.
I absolutely think Favre needs to be the starter for the Vikings, and I think he has a shot to put up more consistent numbers once Sidney Rice gets back to full strength, but with so many good “second tier” QB options like Garrard and Fitzpatrick out there, why risk playing Favre when he is throwing so many INTs and so banged up? I just don’t like the risk/return here.
Brett Favre fantasy football Week 10 projection: 275 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Other sit ’em QBs for Week 10:
- I would like to apologize to everyone for having Chad Henne ranked so highly last week. I’m done with him. He sucks.
- Carson Palmer against the Indy pass D? No thanks. At least, not top 10. He did have another solid game against Pittsburgh, I just don’t totally trust him yet.
- Don’t get cute and think you should start Colt McCoy because he’s playing well in real life. The Browns’ offense does not produce passing TDs, and the Jets have lots of talent in their secondary.
Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ’em RB: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle (at Arizona)
You probably think I’m crazy. Why would I tell you to start a running back who has 57 yards on 20 carries with no touchdowns the last two weeks? Well, to be honest, it’s all about the matchup.
The Seahawks face the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10. The Cardinals give up in the neighborhood of 130 rushing yards per game. They have also given up nine rushing TDs this season (and it should be 10 if the Vikings would have given Adrian Peterson one more goalline try in the 4th quarter…but I digress.)
So while Lynch has been a major disappointment the last couple of weeks, and will continue to be up and down, this is one of the “up” weeks. Hopefully Matt Hasselbeck will be back too, which should help the Seattle offense provide more scoring opportunities for its running backs.
Marshawn Lynch fantasy football Week 10 projection: 95 yards rushing, 1 TD
Other start ’em RBs for Week 10:
- I’m not a huge fan of the matchup versus the Jets, but Peyton Hillis is officially a must start now. How can he not be?
- I didn’t like Cedric Benson last week against Pittsburgh, but I do like him this week against Indy.
- Fred Jackson is a sneaky-good start against the relatively forgiving Lions’ D this week, and CJ Spiller is even worth a flyer in deeper leagues.
Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ’em RB: LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, New York Jets (at Cleveland)
Yes, that’s right. I’m telling you to sit the running backs from a 6-2 team against the Cleveland Browns. Here’s why:
Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see why LT and Shonn Greene are good sit ’em candidates this way, as well as the rest of the sit ’em RBs, and my Week 10 start em, sit em picks at WR, TE, and Defense.
Note that commenting is turned off here, but you can ask your team-specific questions in the comment section of any post over at MSF Fantasy Sports.
* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.