Two-Start Pitchers

Must Starts:

Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado Rockies

Chacin has surpassed Ubaldo as the Rockies ace this year.  He has been unreal in his last 4 starts going at least six innings with no more than one run.

Zack Greinke, Milwaukee Brewers

Greinke has been unlucky this year but has still provided great strikeout numbers.  Other than one poor start with the wind blowing out at Wrigley, Greinke has made 5 quality starts in his last 6 games.

Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies

Lee gets Boston’s juggernaut lineup in his first start, but owners should not worry.  The lefty is an elite talent who has hit his stride in a big way in his last few starts.

Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks

Kennedy has flown under the radar this season, but has still provided owners with great numbers.  This week, he gets two struggling offenses in Cleveland and Oakland, so look for him to continue his run of success.

Other Must Starts: CJ Wilson, Texas Rangers; Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox; Erik Bedard, Seattle Mariners; Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay Rays

Take a Chance:

Brandon Beachy, Atlanta Braves

Beachy was absolutely phenomenal in his return from the DL this week, striking out 11 in just 6 innings.  However, this was not his first great pitching performance this season.  This week, he has one start in Seattle and one at home against the Orioles.  Beachy owns a 3.22 ERA overall and can provide solid strikeout totals.  Another reason to believe in Beachy is that he owns a 1.45 ERA against non-NL East opponents.

Spot Start Options

Jason Vargas, Seattle Mariners

Vargas was masterful against the Phillies at home last week and for most of the year has been solid.  This week, he gets the punchless San Diego offense at home.  Two of his last three home starts have been complete game shutouts.  The Padres provide less offensive firepower than the struggling Phillies and Rays, whom he already shut out, so give him a chance.

Carlos Zambrano, Chicago Cubs

There are rumors that Big Z may finally be getting his head straight, which is dangerous for opponents.  Long overcome by emotional outbursts, Zambrano has settled in for his last two starts with consecutive starts of at least 7 innings and three or fewer runs.  This week, Zambrano gets the Giants at Wrigley, where he owns a sub-4.00 ERA.  To top it off, he owns a 2.38 career ERA against the Giants, including a 1.64 mark last season.

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* – Zack Greinke photo credit: Morry Gash — Associated Press via Madison.com

In this post, we’ll look at some of the biggest names who will be playing in new AL & NL Central cities and assess their outlook for 2011. Then you can hop over to MSF Fantasy Sports for a more complete look at the fantasy impact of this year’s offseason movement.

Adam Dunn to the White Sox

Dunn will have a 50 home run season on the South Side.  Dunn is a great power hitter, who has steadily improved his batting average.  He is a top notch first baseman when placed in the home run palace that is U.S. Cellular Field.  Pick Dunn early because he is poised for a huge year as a White Sock.

[Editor's note: is it "White Sock" or "White Sox" when used in this tense? I know how it's pronounced, but how is properly spelled? I'm not sure there is a correct answer...]

Zack Greinke to the Brewers

Greinke gets a big boost in the form of some run support, finally.  He should see his win total rise greatly if he can continue his recent success.  Greinke will be a top-10 starting pitcher this year.  Greinke has great strikeout numbers so he should be looked at as an early draft pick.  Also, the Brewers have put together a nice top three in their rotation combining Greinke with Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum.  Consider Greinke and Gallardo elite pitchers this year, while Marcum is still a solid option.

Victor Martinez to the Tigers

Martinez is the top catcher after this move. Miguel Cabrera backs up Martinez in the lineup now, and that means more fastballs for a great fastball hitter.  While Comerica Park is a death spot for power numbers, Martinez will still be a top notch catcher.

Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see Ryan McElroy’s complete analysis of the fantasy impact of the offseason movement by guys like Cliff Lee, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Adrian Beltre, Jayson Werth, and many more.

Comments are closed here but you can ask your fantasy baseball questions in the comment section at MSF Fantasy Sports.

Royals hurler Zack Greinke was named the AL Cy Young Award winner today, beating out Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, C.C. Sabathia, and Roy Halladay.

Curiously, Jose Contreras did not receive any votes.

For the season, Greinke went 16-8 with a 2.16 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and struck out 242 batters in 229.1 innings. Clearly he was the most dominant pitcher the AL with the putrid performance of his team being the only black mark on his resume.

Good for the voters for not holding that against him.

Greinke’s Cy Young victory completes an incredible turnaround for the 26-year old pitcher whose promising career seemingly bottomed out in 2005 when he went 5-17 with a 5.80 ERA. It was later learned that Greinke suffers from social anxiety disorder, something that he clearly has a much better handle on now.

MSF salutes Zack Greinke, clearly the right choice for this year’s AL Cy Young Award.

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* – Zack Greinke photo credit: Robert Beck  via SI.com

But it also means something else: it’s time to dole out some midseason awards.

Since our primary focus here at Midwest Sports Fans is, well, the Midwest, I am going to focus my award giving to just the Central divisions of the American and National League. Let’s get right to it.

NL Central 1st Half MVP: Albert Pujols, and I really don’t need to say anything else about it. His name itself is becoming hyperbole. I want to see a new version of “The Most Interesting Man in the World” commercials featuring Pujols. They could be called “The Most Dominating Presence in Baseball” and include lines like “he once struck out, just to see what it felt like” and “he’s seen less pitches than the World Cup, yet his goatee alone has hit more home runs than Ryan Ludwick.” Albert Pujols is amazing and is not just the NL Central MVP, but the MLB MVP for the first half of 2009.

AL Central 1st Half MVP: This one is not so clear cut. Let’s take a look at a few of the candidates (stats as of July 9th):

• Joe Mauer, Twins: 60 G, 224 AB, .388 BA, 15 HR, 47 RBI, 48 R, 1.118 OPS
• Justin Morneau, Twins: 84 G, 319 AB, .317 BA, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 56 R, .984 OPS
• Jermaine Dye, White Sox: 77 G, 276 AB, .297 BA, 20 HR, 54 RBI, 51 R, .940 OPS
• Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals: 10-5, 2.12 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 129 K, 29 BB

Obviously I really want to say JD, or even Scott Podsednik, and I think there is an argument to be made for them as their value has been highlighted by the injury to Carlos Quentin, but I have a hard time giving it to anyone other than Justin Morneau or Joe Mauer with the impressive stats both have racked up.

It certainly isn’t Zack Greinke, whose team becomes more irrelevant with each passing week. If his ERA was still 1.00, then maybe. But he hasn’t been as lights-out recently, which is to be expected since he isn’t the greatest pitcher in the history of mankind and all beings, as some have suggested.

While everyone is salivating over Mauer, and don’t get me wrong — he has been great since returning from injury, Morneau has been producing at a high level for 24 more games and over the span of almost 100 more ABs than Mauer. Plus, batting average is an overrated stat, so Mauer gets no bonus points from me because he’s making everyone dream about .400. Both are great candidates, and by the end of the year such a difference in games won’t be so magnified, but right now I have to go with Morneau, who has been the most consistent run producer in the division over the course of the entire first half.

NL Central 1st Half Cy Young: I see two primary contenders: Adam Wainwright of St. Louis and Yovani Gallardo of Milwaukee. Here are the stats:

• Yovani Gallardo, Brewers: 8-6, 109.2 innings, 2.95 ERA, 120 K, 51 BB
• Adam Wainwright, Cardinals: 9-5, 122.1 innings, 3.09 ERA, 110 K, 45 BB

Pretty damn close based on the numbers (and you could probably throw Ryan Franklin in the mix here too, who has been great as the Cardinals’ closer). My first instinct when comparing Gallardo and Wainwright is to go with the guy pitching for the team in first place, but it’s hard to use team record as a tie-breaker considering the Cardinals are only one game up on the Brewers in the standings. Or is it? With two pitchers this close, sometimes it comes right down to head-to-head battles.

Thus far in 2009, Wainwright has absolutely dominated Milwaukee. He is 2-0 in two starts against the Brewers, going 15.1 innings and giving up just a single run while striking out 18. Gallardo, on the other hand, has struggled somewhat against his team’s primary competition for the division title. Despite having a better overall ERA and WHIP than Wainwright, Gallardo is 0-1 against St. Louis. Sure, he pitched 8 innings of shutout ball while only giving up 2 hits in the teams’ May 25th battle, so you can’t blame him for the no decision there, but that game was not head-to-head against Wainwright like the July 7th game was. In that battle, Gallardo lasted only five innings and gave up four runs in a 5-0 loss for the Brew Crew.

So maybe that one game difference for the Cardinals is the difference between Wainwright and Gallardo. I’m giving the 1st half Cy Young for the NL Central to Adam Wainwright.

AL Central 1st Half Cy Young: Lots of legit contenders here. Let’s list them out with stats:

• Mark Buehrle, White Sox: 9-2, 3.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 114.2 innings, 65 K, 25 BB
• Joe Nathan, Twins: 0-1, 1.13 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 33.1 innings, 22 saves, 43 K, 7 BB
• Justin Verlander, Tigers: 9-4, 3.59 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 115.1 innings, 141 K, 35 BB
• Edwin Jackson, Tigers: 6-4, 2.59 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 114.2 innings, 93 K, 33 BB
• Zack Greinke, Royals: 10-5, 2.12 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 127.1 innings, 129 K, 29 BB
• Fausto Carmona, Indians: 2-6, 7.42 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 60.2 innings, 36 K, 41 BB

If we were giving this out to the pitcher who has been the most generous to opposing hitters and teams, Fausto Carmona would win in a landslide. And yes, this is the same Fausto Carmona that went 19-8 with a 3.06 ERA in 2007. But obviously I only listed Carmona here to throw more salt in the multitude of open wounds Cleveland’s start has given its fans. More on him later.

Back to the subject at hand. Zack Greinke obviously has the best numbers, but I just don’t believe in handing out awards to players whose teams are not in the playoff race. There is a different level of pressure when your team is expected to win and when games are meaningful. If the award were Most Outstanding Pitcher, it’s Greinke by a landslide. It’s not, and it clearly states in the fine print of my own personal Cy Young and MVP criteria that last place teams (Cleveland sucks so bad they don’t count anymore) cannot have Cy Young or MVP winners, so we’ll let Willy Wonka tell Zack Greinke what he’s won:

(By the way, credit goes to Hugging Harold Reynolds for tweeting that video yesterday. I hadn’t seen that in forever, but always loved Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory. Charlie Bucket is a golden god.)

Honestly, I can’t find a whole lot to separate Buehrle, Verlander, and Jackson. All three have had excellent seasons. I’d give the edge to Buehrle because he owns the Tigers and Verlander sucks against the White Sox, and both have more wins than Jackson, but it’s really splitting hairs between those three.

My 1st half AL Central Cy Young goes to Joe Nathan, who has just be out-of-this-world awesome. The Twins’ pitchers (other than Nick Blackburn, who is having a very good yet under-the-radar season) have struggled this season. Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, and Kevin Slowey have all dealt with injuries and bouts of ineffectiveness. The one constant (throughout all the years Ray, has been baseball) has been Joe Nathan at the back end of the bullpen making sure that when the Twins do have a late lead, they do not surrender it.

I’m not a huge proponent of giving Cy Youngs to closers who typically pitch less than a third of the amount of innings a top-line starter does, but Joe Nathan has given up only 18 hits in 33.1 innings and is 22-24 in save opportunities. He has been beyond dominant and there is no way the Twins would be as close to first place as they are without him. It’s a competitive field, but Nathan is the choice.

NL Central Manager of the 1st Half: Tony LaRussa, and I don’t think it’s close. Ken Macha has done a nice job in Milwaukee keeping the Brewers in the race without C.C. Sabathia or Ben Sheets, but LaRussa has the Cardinals in first place with one legit hitter in his lineup. Yes, that hitter is the great Pujols, but look at the rest of the team’s offensive stats. Putrid. And it’s not like their pitching has been lights out. Ryan Franklin has been a revelation in the bullpen, and getting Chris Carpenter back has helped, but this is still a rotation that counts on guys like Kyle Lohse, Joel Piniero, and Todd Wellemeyer. That LaRussa has the Cardinals in first place is a testament to his managerial genius (and to Pujols’ utter dominance, of course).

AL Central Manager of the 1st Half: I really want to say Ozzie Guillen, and I think that he’s done a great job, but my vote goes to Jimmy Leyland of Detroit. It’s not just that the Tigers are in first place, it’s that they’ve been able to rebound from last season’s disappointment with a far less potent offensive attack and without the benefit of an above-average bullpen. Leyland has navigated his way through the struggles of Dontrelle Willis and Armando Gallarraga, plus had to deal with Magglio Ordonez’s sharp decline. Leyland essentially has a lineup with only three hitters who have been consistent producers (Miguel Cabrera, Brandon Inge, Curtis Granderson), yet there the Tigers sit, a couple games up and eight games over .500.

2009 has been an excellent rebound season for Detroit, and Leyland deserves credit as the man steering the ship. He also deserves credit for having one of the most hilarious old school baseball cards ever. The hat, the mustache, the sunburned face…I’m not sure if he’s at Spring Training, a train conductor, or working at a carnival.

And with that, let’s transition into a few “alternative” awards for the first half.

NL Central Least Valuable Player of the 1st Half: Milton Bradley wins this one. Signed in the offseason after putting up terrific numbers in Texas, The Angry One has only gotten 203 ABs so far this season and hasn’t done much with them. He’s hitting .236 and, even worse, is slugging only .374. Ouch. Plus, he is being his usual distracting self and getting into public pissing matches with his manager when he’s not forgetting how many outs there are in an inning. Like most things having to do with the Cubs, you just get the feeling that this is not going to end well.

AL Central Least Valuable Player of the 1st Half: Fausto Carmona of the Indians. We touched on his stats above, and they really say it all. This guy has just gone straight downhill since 2007 and the Indians have to be wondering if he’ll ever be able to recapture the ability that made him appear to be one of the bright young pitching stars in the big leagues. Despite a rough 2008, a lot was expected out of Carmona this year. Well, the Indians have gotten a lot out of him…it’s just all been bad.

AL/NL Central Worst Manager of the 1st Half: Hands down Eric Wedge. You need look no further than this site, where our very own AJ Kaufman calls for Wedge’s head in pretty much every article he writes. The Indians were expected to contend for the AL Central crown, yet they are 13.5 games out and 19 games under .500 already.

AL/NL Central Manager with the most potential to give his kids truly awful awesome names: Eric Wedge. If he had any sense of humor he would name his kids Orange, Potato, and Cheese. No such luck though. As it is, he and his wife named their kids Ava and Dalton Cash. Oh well.

Come to think of it though, Dalton Cash Wedge is a pretty sweet and unique name. The kid is either going be a scrappy middle infielder/#2 hitter in the majors or the lead actor in his generation’s version of Dawson’s Creek. Well done Eric. (See, we don’t always criticize you on Midwest Sports Fans.)

AL/NL Central Quote of the 1st Half: This one is easy and goes to (who else?) Ozzie Guillen. And there were a few of them, all of which were gloriously derogatory towards the team from the North Side.

“But one thing about Wrigley Field, I puke every time I go there. That’s just to be honest. And if Cub fans don’t like the way I talk about Wrigley Field, it’s just Wrigley Field. I don’t say anything about the fans or anything now. But Wrigley Field, they got to respect my opinion. That’s the way I feel…I don’t care if they hate me. They don’t feed my kids. If they hate me, that’s cool.”

That’s just a great quote, although the part about Ozzie not talking about Cubs fans may not be entirely true. Ozzie also had this gem:

“…our fans are not stupid like Cubs fans.”

AL/NL Central Home Run Call of the Year: Hawk Harrelson, two days ago. Hell yeah!

That’s all I’ve got. Sorry for not even mentioning your teams Reds, Astros, and Pirates fans…they’ve all been pretty uninteresting so far this year, at least as far as I’m concerned. But feel free to add your own midseason awards in the comments.

The White Sox bring out the brooms again tonight, and then play the Twins in a pivotal pre-All Star Break series. As Hawk might say, I loooove baseball.

* – Jim Leyland baseball card image credit: Vinewood Sports Cards

* – Albert Pujols photo credit: Urban Shocker

It is unfortunately important to note that just because Quentin will be taking swings in Charlotte, it is not automatic that his foot will hold up:

The 2008 MVP candidate has been on the shelf with plantar fasciitis in his left foot since May 26. He said two weeks ago that even if the tendon in the foot holds up the rest of the season, he might have surgery after the season.

If it doesn’t hold up?

”We’re aware that if a relapse happens where the tendon ruptures even more, well, that’s major,” Quentin said.

Guillen and the organization want to make sure that Quentin gets to the end of this season without any setbacks. Then they can make a decision on the next step.

”We’ll see what happens,” Guillen said. ”I’m very optimistic about his improvement. But in the meanwhile, I have to see it first, then I’ll get excited.”

Still, for White Sox fans (and especially this one, who banked a lot of pride on Quentin’s eventual healthy return) today is a positive sign. Hopefully the reports from Charlotte will be as good as the reports were from Kansas City yesterday.

The White Sox had one of their most impressive wins of the season against Zack Greinke and the fading Royals last night, a 5-0 shutout. A few performances in particular stood out:

• Scott Podsednik (the 2009 AL MVP? That’s not as ridiculous as it sounds…) went 3-4 with 2 runs and a double and continues to be a stalwart atop the White Sox order. He also continued his impressive and surprising dominance of Zack Greinke. Look at this numbers: 16-30 (.533 BA), 5 2B, 1 3B, 1.342 OPS. Wow.
• AJ Pierzynski continued his hot hitting by going 3-4 with a home run and evening his average up at .300 for the season.
• John Danks captured his 7th win of the season, pitching 7 1/3 shutout innings and striking out 5 while giving up only 5 hits and, most importantly, walking no one. Danks now has a 2.70 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP lifetime in 7 starts against the Royals.

Today, Gavin Floyd looks to continue his hot pitching and lead the White Sox to their 8th straight victory of the year. He will be opposed by Luke Hochevar. The White Sox are currently only 2.5 games out of first place with Minnesota and Detroit beating up on eachother this weekend. Either way, a victory for the White Sox will see them get closer to Detroit or put more distance between 2nd and 3rd place. And if Carlos Quentin has a successful first step in Charlotte, even better.

It’s not too greedy to ask for a double-dose of good news on July 4th is it? Let’s see some fireworks White Sox, and a safe, comfortable, healthy return to the field for Carlos Quentensity. (I like this name a lot better than Mr. Pocelain…)

Without question, Zack Greinke’s meteoric rise into the pantheon of top pitchers in Major League Baseball has been one of the best stories this April.

Zack Greinke’s story — falling into the abyss of social anxiety disorder and coming back from it — deserves both respect and adulation. The following passage from the SI article paints the depressing picture perfectly:

During a dreadful 2005 season in which he would finish with a 5–17 record and a 5.80 ERA, Brian Anderson remembers Greinke once suddenly announcing in the dugout, “I’m going to throw a 50-mph curveball next inning.” That was all he said.

Next inning, Greinke threw a preposterously slow curve to Detroit’s Dmitri Young, the kind that made the whole crowd shout “Oooh.” Anderson stuck his head out of the dugout to get the reading. It was precisely 50 mph.

The incident says something about Greinke’s quirkiness and a virtuoso’s feel for pitching, but it reveals more than that, too. It shows that Greinke was in trouble. He hated pitching so much that he had to invent little games to keep himself from crumbling. Everything was falling apart. He feuded with his pitching coach, Guy Hansen, who wanted him to move five inches to the left on the rubber. Never close to his teammates, he became even more distant, occasionally hostile.

The SI story about Zack Greinke, from where the above passage is taken, is written by Joe Posnanski, one of the most consistently sublime sportswriters out there. If he says that Zack Greinke is the best pitcher in baseball, then Greinke has a pretty powerful and respectable source in his corner. (And, truth be told, Posnanski does only say that Greinke is the best pitcher in baseball “for the moment.”)

I have to say, it’s pretty hard to argue with Zack Greinke’s stat line thus far through his first four games in April:

• Record: 4-0
• ERA: 0.00
• WHIP: 0.86
• K/BB: 36/6
• Complete game shutouts: 2
• Consecutive starts without an earned run dating back to last season: 6

To say that those numbers are preposterously good would be an understatement. If I was playing a video game and had a pitcher with those kind of stats I would raise the difficulty level. So it is hard to dispute that at this very moment Zack Greinke is the best pitcher in baseball. He may even be, at this very moment right now, the best player in baseball — bar none (with apologies to Albert Pujols).

But is Zack Greinke really the best pitcher in baseball?

Off the top of my head I can think of a few guys that I would certainly consider to be on Greinke’s level who are far more proven over the long haul: C.C. Sabathia, Roy Halladay, and Jake Peavy. Tim Lincecum, while only in his third year, has already proven that he can be dominant over the course of an entire season, which is something that Greinke has yet to do.

I can’t say off-hand whether I would take any of these guys over Zack Greinke if I was the GM of an MLB team, but I do think they would all be worthy debates.

There is one pitcher, however, for whom there would be no debate: Johan Santana — the true best pitcher in baseball.

I know that Sports Illustrated wants to go out on a limb with their cover claim in an effort to sell more magazines, and that calling Johan Santana the best pitcher in baseball has become something of a cliche, but that’s because it is true. And if SI’s cover story is any indication of the general perception of baseball writers or baseball fans, then we are not truly appreciating the consistent greatness of Johan Santana.

As insanely good as Zack Greinke’s start has been, is anyone noticing the incredible four-game start of Santana this season?

• Record: 3-1 (and his one loss was a 13K gem in which he went 7 innings while giving up only 3 hits and no earned runs)
• ERA: 0.70
• WHIP: 0.90
• K/BB: 37/6

Clearly, Greinke’s start has been better. But let’s compare their numbers from last season:

• ERA: Santana – 2.53 | Greinke – 3.47
• WHIP: Santana – 1.15 | Greinke – 1.28
• Ks: Santana – 206 | Greinke – 183
• IP: Santana – 234.1 | Greinke – 202.1

Greinke was good last year, and certainly my hat is off to him for overcoming what he has overcome to rebound from his awful 2005 season, but I think SI is jumping the gun just a bit by proclaiming him the best pitcher in baseball. Johan Santana is only 3 1/2 years older than Greinke and has been producing at a high level in the majors since 2002. Greinke finally started coming into his own last season, and has followed that success up with a ridiculous start to this season, but just look at the year-by-year career stats of Johan Santana compared with the year-by-year career stats of Zack Greinke.

There really is no comparison.

If the claim was “best pitcher in baseball over the last 6 starts,” then yes Zack Greinke is your choice. But we all know that high atop the list of important characteristics for a pitcher is the ability to produce consistently over the long haul, season after season. Zack Greinke may yet prove that he can be this type of pitcher, but no one, not even the great Roy Halladay, can compete with Johan Santana in this area right now.

Besides, just by putting Zack Greinke on their cover and subjecting him to the infamous jinx, Sports Illustrated may be ensuring that he will not continue to be the “best pitcher in baseball.” Maybe from that perspective Johan Santana is happy they did not choose him. Of course, Santana has been on the SI cover before and it hasn’t seemed to bother him much.

(Update: And the SI cover jinx may have already begun. In his first start since the new SI was issued, earlier tonight against Toronto, Greinke gave up his first earned runs of the year. It wasn’t a complete jinx though, as he improved to 5-0 and struck out 8 over 7 innings. Johan Santana also pitched tonight, going 7 innings, giving up two earned, and striking out 7.)

If I was starting a team today, and I could choose any pitcher in baseball to start it with, I’m choosing Johan Santana without even a split second thought. And when I think of the best pitcher in baseball, Johan Santana is the first and only pitcher who comes to mind.

Sports Illustrated picked a great pitcher to profile, and Joe Posnanski was his usual proselific* self, but Zack Greinke still has a ways to go before I would even consider him as the best pitcher in baseball. Considering his personal backstory, and the underdog nature of his team, I wouldn’t mind seeing him get there though.

Kudos to Zack Greinke for beginning to fulfill his immense potential, but best pitcher in baseball is a torch that will have to be passed by Johan Santana, rather than handed out by the SI headline writers.

What do you think?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

* – Just made that one up while typing. Pretty apt word to describe Joe Posnanski, don’t you think?

Suck it, Cubs fans

Alright, maybe it’s a little early for impetuous smack-talk, but I just watched Alexei Ramirez jack his 5th grand slam with the White Sox last night, and I remembered suddenly that euphoric stroke of what it means to be a White Sox fan. Furthermore, my boy Paul Konerko finally looks like he has his body healthy and capable this season.

Amidst the strange standings referenced above come equally aberrant fantasy stats for many players. I’m here to sort out the current hot starters that you should deal high and the frosty players to reel in low.

Note: I am a firm believer in praising AVG in standard 5×5 leagues. If you can get on base, you have the world of stats open to you. Every stat has a greater potential to react positively if a batter’s average is higher.  Also, all rankings and position eligibilities referenced below are based on Yahoo! rankings.

Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice and Tips: Players to Reel In

Alexei Ramirez – Yeah, he nailed a grand slam last night, but that only minutely fuels the alarming path Alexei is going to be on for the rest of the season. Ignore the average. He bats .172 in April on average, then the Cuban Missile launches to .288 in May, and doesn’t look back as he soars beyond .300 the next months.

Move over, Robin Ventura. With five career grand slams already as a White Sox player, Alexei is as clutch as they come.

Ramirez came up last year and fooled pitchers with his unique batting, and his technique continues to adapt. This guy’s potential has no limit; in AVG, HRs, RBIs, Runs, and SB, he has enormous potential to be a 5-category helper. 92% of leagues own him. If you can’t pick him up, trade now and be rewarded for the rest of the season. His versatility at positions 2B, SS, and OF make him easy to trade and put on your roster.

Lance Berkman – Berkman’s .167 is not a good average. It’s been 3 weeks already, but remember: it’s only been 3 weeks. Berkman delivers in AVG, HR, RBI, Runs, and, apparently from last year, his first season with double-digit steals at 18, he also is capable of producing in that category as well.

Many think the 33-year old is on the decline, but I say differently. You don’t switch from a career-high 9 SB to twice as many if you body feels “old.” Since 2001, only one year has Berkman missed more than 10 games. 6 out of 8 years he hits for more than 100 RBIs. In eight years, he is averaging 33 HRS a season.

Don’t be fooled by gossip; this guy is healthy, qualified, and April is his worst month in terms of almost every category anyway. Reel him in now, you will be showered with production the rest of the season.

Cole Hamels – He is pitching with an ERA of 10 and a WHIP of 2 right now. He had to readjust his delivery mechanics early on, and received a line drive to the shoulder last Thursday. Now that the grim beginning to 2009 is out of the way, the pitcher who is ranked around 194,036 (or 1166, give or take) looks “injury-prone” to many owners.

This is not the case.

When you increase from ’06’s 132 IP to 183, then to 227 in ‘08, aren’t you supposed to get “hurt” all the time from that increase? And is your ERA (4.08, 3.39, 3.09) WHIP (1.25, 1.12, 1.08) and K’s (145, 177, 196) supposed to improve substantially each year? These first 3 weeks are a fluke. They should not be precursors of any “indications” he is in trouble. I don’t believe he will be at a lower point in fantasy terms again in his career, so seize the opportunity to invest at Hamels’ low point.

Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice and Tips: Players to Deal Out:

Brandon Phillips – Mayday, Mayday, this liner is sinking faster than a brick. Every sign points to abandoning this ship. His career year came in ’07 with 30 HRs, 94 RBIs, and 32 SB. This was also the only year he didn’t miss 12+ games in his 7-year stint. With a career BA of .259, Phillips significantly lacks the power to have this squat average.

If you OBP fans are looking for a deal, turn away. Phillips has a .307 OBP in his career, and an average of 36 walks each of his 3 starting seasons. He is batting 4th, and this spot will stain his production in Runs. And if you’re batting .165, you’re not getting on base much. And if you don’t get on base with walks OR hits, you can’t steal them!

I do not trust one solid year to an overrated flop. He is owned in over 95% of leagues. Yes, finding 2nd basemen can be difficult, but trading his value now is a good idea before people realize he isn’t worth as much as they’d anticipated.

Matt Holliday – This is self-explanatory; going from the most renowned hitters’ ballpark of the MLB to McAfee Coliseum just demolishes any hopes of Holliday’s hitting numbers being what they were.

Since he is a solid hitter, his average may somehow make it’s way up to .300 by year’s end, but the dude won’t be hitting nearly the number of RBIs or HRs as he did in Coors Field. Expect to see his watered-down performance all year long. Do yourself a favor, and trade him quickly for value, and celebrate getting rid of the “Holliday.”

Orlando Husdon – Trade him immediately. His value will never be higher in his career. Several people want to hop on this gravy train for a hot 3-week start, but his career stats tell otherwise.

He will play about 135 games a year, produce around 11 HRs with 55 RBI and 14 SB a year. Does this look like the Number 15-ranked player in all of baseball? This is the perfect time to deal him out and get the most out of it. Anticipating his streak maintaining its course is like golfing in the dark. That analogy needs no further explanation.

Zack Greinke – The number 3 player in all of fantasy baseball. How much longer can his streak of 38 innings without an earned run keep up? All season hopefully? That would be great. But let’s see: increasing the pitch count from 122 innings to around 210? Looks alarming on paper.

Well it is. Pitchers have a history of injuries resulting from increasing innings over 30 from one year to the next. And Greinke did not just increase 30, but 90. He will throw his arm out at this rate.

Regardless of his amplified chance of going on the DL sometime this season, he is currently ranked number 3. Think of the possibilities. You reaped 38 flawless innings, so now trade for a more consistent, durable pitcher.