A sports blog by and for Midwest Sports Fans
March Madness 2012 can’t get here soon enough for me, although last Saturday’s action brought plenty of madness on its own.
Interestingly enough though, finding teams for this week’s stock watch was tough because so many teams appear to be locked into win-one, lose-one mode.
You could probably count on one hand the numbers of minutes I have spent watching bowl games over the last couple weeks. It’s obviously difficult to match the excitement of seeing whether Clemson will allow 80 points or whether they can get in the end zone to cut the lead to 40, but somehow I managed to keep myself entertained with a number of close games on the hardwood.
Things are only going to get better as conference play heats up, but for now, here are the latest risers and fallers in the college basketball world, starting with someone hoops fans in the Hoosier state will be very familiar with.
College hoops is essentially taking a few days off for Christmas, but after a number of close games and exciting finishes on Thursday night, I am almost as excited for conference play to begin as my four-year-old is for Christmas. I say “almost” because there’s pretty much no way I will ever be as excited about anything as she is right now.
Some teams are entering league play brimming with confidence based on their recent performances while others are trying to prevent things from snowballing in the wake of a few losses. Here’s my weekly look at college basketball’s risers and fallers. [Read more...]
Another exciting week of college hoops is in the books, so it’s time to look at this week’s risers and fallers. The Stock Up section is full of mid-majors who have chalked up key wins in the early going, while the Stock Down teams reached that status due to injury or inefficiency.
The final team on the Non-BCS Watch List is a perennial NCAA Tournament team that boasts one of the top players in the nation.
My good friends, you know me. I wear my emotions and my allegiances unabashedly on my sleeve.
If you follow MSF or if you follow me on Twitter, you know that I live and die (figuratively speaking…for the most part) by the success and failure of my Indiana Hoosiers. I grew up in an around Assembly Hall, I went to IU, I spoke passionately on the steps of the Hall to thousands of my peers the day Coach Knight got fired, and I will have cream and crimson running through my veins until the day I die.
So forgive me if I do not find it all that enjoyable to watch the Xavier Musketeers enjoy an NCAA Tournament run (next stop: Thursday night against Kansas State) while my Hoosiers wallow in the depths of 16 wins over two seasons.
Xavier’s backcourt of Terrell Holloway and Jordan Crawford, you might remember, should be showcasing their hardwood talents in Bloomington, not Cincinnati. At least, that was the plan under the Lying Snake Who Shall Not Be Named.
Then there were phone calls…and then there were rumors of marijuana use among many players…and then were F’s (and lots of them)…and then there were defections…and then there were releases granted from Letters of Intent…and then there was…
Oh to hell with it. F— you K.S. Yes, it’s two years later and I’m still bitter. F— you.
Let’s get on with the damn preview of two Sweet 16 teams not named Indiana.
The March Madness odds continue and it’s hard to believe we’re already down to just 16 teams. Here’s what we know so far: (a) Cleveland State’s win over Wake Forest is the upset of the tournament right now; (b) Blake Griffin is justifying his projected NBA No. 1 overall draft pick status; (c) President Obama’s Final Four remains intact; and (d) some major bad karma should follow Missouri into the Sweet 16 odds.
Let’s break down what should be an extremely tight round of March Madness betting. (Editor’s note: All picks are straight up, not against the spread. Go to the homepage and check out the recent game-by-game posts for a closer look at how to pick these games against the spread.)
EAST REGION
No. 1 Pittsburgh Panthers vs No. 4 Xavier Musketeers
Xavier is like the plucky little kid trying to measure up to his older brother in this NCAA basketball betting matchup. What do the Musketeers do best? Play defense and rebound like crazy. They showed off those skills in the first two rounds of the tournament, totally stymieing Wisconsin in the round of 32 after shooting the lights out against Portland State.
Problem: Pittsburgh battles the same way Xavier does and does it better. While the Musketeers are fifth in the nation in rebounding, the Panthers are second. Pittsburgh will eke out a win here thanks to superior backcourt talent with Levance Fields leading the way alongside outstanding big man DeJuan Blair.
Online betting pick: Pittsburgh
No. 2 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 3 Villanova Wildcats
Playing in the powerful Big East, Villanova has flown under the radar for much of the season. This weekend, the Wildcats be outed as major contenders when they knock off the Blue Devils. Duke’s overreliance on perimeter shooting doesn’t bode well against the defensively sound Villanova. Expect the Wildcats to control the pace and reach the Elite 8.
Online betting pick: Villanova
SOUTH REGION
No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels vs No. 4 Gonzaga Bulldogs
There aren’t too many “pretenders†left in the March Madness betting field, but Gonzaga is close. Yeah, the Bulldogs put up some points against Akron and Western Kentucky, but those were No. 13 and No. 12 seeds, respectively. Gonzaga barely survived those matchups, coming from behind to beat Akron and downing Western Kentucky with a last-second shot.
Jumping from that competition to No. 1 North Carolina, still the odds-on sportsbook favorite to win the March Madness odds, will be too much for the ’Zags to handle. The Tar Heels should drop major points on the Bulldogs in a high-scoring affair here. Bet on North Carolina, who should keep getting better with Ty Lawson regaining his form.
Online betting pick: North Carolina
No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners vs No. 3 Syracuse Orange
It’s Blake Griffin Versus the World in what could be the closest of all the Sweet 16 lines. Well, maybe that’s an overstatement, but the point is that Griffin has been the force of the Tournament so far, averaging 30.5 points and 15 rebounds. Is Syracuse up to the task after breezing through the first two rounds?
I say yes. The Orange are a potent offensive unit with well-distributed scoring; five different Orange players averaged 10 or more points per game this regular season. The Orange offense can top Griffin’s inevitable powerhouse performance and guard Jonny Flynn has been sensational. Bet on Syracuse to pull off what some online betting experts would call a minor upset.
Online betting pick: Syracuse
WEST REGION
No. 1 Connecticut Huskies vs No. 5 Purdue Boilermakers
So, uh…Connecticut did pretty well in its first two March Madness betting contests, averaging a 46-point victory margin. Does that mean the Huskies are extremely sharp or extremely untested? Only time will tell. What we do know is that Purdue enters the Sweet 16 nicely battle-hardened, being the only No. 5 seed to avoid the dreaded 5/12 loss and grinding out a tough win over Washington. Center JaJuan Johnson in particular has stepped up his play and will need to maintain that high standard against UConn.
It’s tempting to pick Purdue to pull off the sportsbook upset here, but UConn sure isn’t getting much respect for a No. 1 seed. Better to have the Huskies surprise you with a loss than to pick the No. 5 seed and kick yourself afterwards. Go with Connecticut until they prove you wrong.
Online betting pick: Connecticut
No. 2 Memphis Tigers vs No. 3 Missouri Tigers
It just doesn’t feel right picking Missouri. For one, J.T. Tiller’s convenient last-second injury, which allowed Kim English to shoot the game-winning free throws in his place, seemed shady. Missouri also got pretty darn lucky when Marquette’s Lazar Hayward blew the game by stepping on the baseline during an inbound.
Karma aside, Memphis is still be better of the two March Madness picks here. It got its major scare out of the way in the first round and should ride its outstanding defense to the Elite 8 and maybe the Final Four.
Online betting pick: Memphis
MIDWEST REGION
No. 1 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 12 Arizona Wildcats
Like them or not, the Arizona Cardinals have impressed in the March Madness odds after many detractors felt they shouldn’t have qualified for the tournament at all. Many online betting sharps correctly predicted their upset over Utah in the first round and they had the lucky draw of No. 13 Cleveland State in the second round, so the Wildcats haven’t really been tested.
Louisville, the top overall seed in the tourney, won’t be like anything the Wildcats have faced so far. This may be the only Sweet 16 betting matchup with blow-out potential.
Online betting pick: Louisville
No. 2 Michigan State Spartans vs No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks
Still feels weird to see Michigan State seeded higher than Kansas, doesn’t it? Most basketball betting fans didn’t expect much from Kansas in its attempted national title defense after the Jayhawks lost all their starters from last year’s team. However, they’ve looked very impressive early, riding the torrid play of Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins.
A couple of weeks ago, Michigan State would have been the consensus sportsbook pick here, but the Spartans had their hands full with USC and may not have an answer if Aldrich does anything close to the triple-double he posted against Dayton. Bet on Kansas to win one more round.
Online betting pick: Kansas
This post will analyze the Pitt-Xavier game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.
The Pitt-Xavier Sweet 16 game, which tip off about 20 minutes after Purdue and UConn get going on Thursday night, matches up two of the best young coaches in America: Xavier’s Sean Miller and Pitt’s Jamie Dixon.
Sean Miller is 117-45 in his five seasons as Xavier’s head coach and is coaching in his fourth NCAA Tournament. The Musketeers made the Elite 8 last year and are one win away from doing it again in 2009. A lot of IU fans were clamoring for the Hoosiers to go after Miller before last season. He stayed at Xavier and is building a juggernaut that has to be considered among the top 20 in programs in American right now.
Jamie Dixon is in the 6th season at Pitt and has been just as successful, if not moreso, than Miller. Dixon is 162-44, with a 70% winning percentage in the tough Big East. His Panthers have made three trips to the Sweet 16 (including this year) and have played in the NCAA Tournament in all six of his seasons. The consistency of the Pitt program has been impressive, with the next goal being an Elite 8 and Final Four appearance.
Can Dixon and the Panthers finally make that elusive jump beyond the Sweet 16? They’ll get their chance Thursday night. Here are the particulars for the Pitt-Xavier Sweet 16 showdown:
Full disclosure: I have not seen Xavier play this season but for bits and pieces, so I will have to rely heavily on the Game Predictor analysis on this one. I have, however, seen Pittsburgh play a few times and I agree with the majority of pundits who feel this is a legitimate Final Four team and potential national champion. They won’t blow anyone out, but they win, and they proved themselves in a beast of a conference.
Let’s look at how Game Predictor saw this game, using the five stat categories that I deemed the most significant and used for each of the eight Sweet 16 game predictions.
And based on these stats, Game Predictor offers up the following prediction for the Pitt-Xavier Sweet 16 game:
I was actually surprised at how one-sided the prediction was for Pittsburgh in this case. Obviously Pitt’s offensive efficiency and sterling Assist/TO ration provide a huge advantage. And surprisingly, Xavier is statistically superior in the two defensive categories analyzed. The strength of schedule rating that is automatically factored into the analysis no doubt game Pitt a huge edge, as Xavier’s superior defensive stats were no doubt helped by playing in a much weaker conference than the Big East.
Watching Pitt play, it is hard to imagine anyone in the country being able to compete with the incredible
physical presences of DeJuan Blair and Sam Young on the glass. Add in Levance Fields and you have a trio that is as good as any trio in the nation. I was also really impressed with Jermaine Dixon in the OK State game in Round 2. He only had 6 points in the game, but he made all four of his free throws, helped attack the Oklahoma State pressure while only turning the ball over once, and grabbed 6 rebounds.
Without question, Pitt will be the most physically imposing team that Xavier has played all year.
This is not to say that Xavier has no chance. In fact, I would be more comfortable picking Xavier to upset Pitt than Purdue to upset UConn. Connecticut is more apt to blow teams out early. Pitt, on the other hand, relies on its physical dominance taking a toll on teams and than extending their lead late. If Xavier can pressure Pitt into a few more turnovers than they usually commit, and if the Musketeers can make enough shots to keep the game close, anything can happen in the final 4:00.
I like the Pittsburgh to win in the end though, and to beat the spread in doing so. Xavier is a very good team, led by an outstanding coach, but I think this is the game where Pitt puts it all together. Their coach and their players are sick of hearing about Sweet 16 exits and I think they come out a little extra motivated to put all that talk to rest. In the Year of the Big East, the Panthers keep on marching towards Detroit.
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