Please, whatever you do, do not raise your child as a Chicago Cubs fan.

I was raised a Cubs fan since the day I could watch baseball. Some of my favorite memories are watching the Cubs with my dad in our living room.

I was still young at that point, and I didn’t totally understand how much the Cubs sucked and have sucked for 100+ years now.

Initially, being a Cubs fan brought me joy and a sense of pride; but as I got older, especially after the 2003 playoff debacle, I began to see the Cubs as they truly were and are: losers.

But as true fans do, I stuck with them.

Worst decision of my life.

Since 2003 the Cubs have made the playoffs twice (2007 and 2008), and during those stints they failed to win a single game, allowing themselves to be swept in the first round both years. These losses were worse because just 2-3 years prior the White Sox had won the World Series with virtually a no-name team and one of the craziest managers I’ve seen in my life.

Since then, every time the Cubs, or any other Chicago team, goes on a hot streak or fans become excited and think the team is going to start playing well, I don’t join in on the excitement.

I don’t get excited when Sports Illustrated or ESPN predicts that the Cubs or Bears will have a good season; I laugh because I can’t think of anything more stupid to write or believe.

I am not a cynical fan, just one that has become so accustomed to the losing nature of the Cubs that I’ve lost total faith in the franchise.

So parents, please don’t do this your kids.

But if you must, I recommend you sharing this Pearl Jam song to them to calm their inevitable sadness.

1. If you play a historically great 7-game series, they will come.

Through 5 games this year’s World Series was on pace to be the lowest rated Fall Classic ever. Last Monday’s Game 5 did a historically dismal 8.8 rating. (The low rating was especially surprising considering that Monday Night Football’s number was even worse.)

But by Thursday, American sports fans and television owners realized that they were missing out on one of the great World Series of their lifetimes. Thursday night’s 11-inning classic did a 13.7. Game 7 did even better. Its 14.7 was the best rating for a World Series game since 2004.

2. Oklahoma State is as good as any college football team in the country.

After Saturday’s 59-24 beatdown of Baylor, the Cowboys are #3 in the BCS for the second consecutive week and are #1 in 6 of the 7 BCS computer polls.

While OSU’s much celebrated offense is averaging 50 points per game behind Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon, the Cowboys’ defense is statistically one of the nation’s worst. But SI’s Stewart Mandel argues that Oklahoma State’s defense is much better than the numbers suggest:

Oklahoma State reminds me a lot of last year’s Oregon team, and not because of the array of uniforms. The Cowboys and Ducks both had an electrifying offense that overshadowed an unsung and frankly misunderstood defense. In fact, Brandon Weeden and Co.’s quick-strike attack contributes to the Cowboys’ unflattering defensive numbers. For one thing, the defense is constantly on the field, having played 660 snaps, including 105 on Saturday. By comparison, Alabama’s defense has seen 458 plays. Oklahoma State’s defense has essentially played two extra games.

Meanwhile, [defensive coordinator Bill] Young usually empties the bench by the fourth quarter, so the other team piles up meaningless yards and points against second- and third-stringers.

Regardless of what you think of their defense, the Cowboys control their BCS Championship Game destiny. And Bedlam is in Stillwater this year. I’m just hoping we get to see more of this:

3. Case Keenum is setting records that won’t be broken for a long time.

Thursday night, while you were watching Game 6 of the World Series, Houston quarterback Case Keenum was throwing for 534 yards and 9 touchdowns against Rice. The 6th-year senior now has a record 139 touchdown passes in his college career, 5 better than previous Division I-FBS record holder Graham Harrell. Keenum already holds the FBS record for total offense and likely will break Timmy Chang’s record for passing yards next week against 1-7 UAB.

The ubiquity of the spread offense in recent years has changed the way we look at college football passing records. Chang set his record for total passing yards in 2004, and 9 of the top 10 passers in FBS history have played their entire careers since 2000. Harrell set his touchdown record in 2008, breaking a record set by Colt Brennan the year before.

Given this recent assault on the record books, it may seem naive to expect Keenum’s records to last. But Keenum has 6 more games (assuming that the 8-0 Cougars qualify for the C-USA championship game) in which he can pad his statistics. He is on pace to finish his career with more than 19,000 passing yards and 150 touchdowns. Even by spread offense standards, those numbers may be untouchable.

4. North Dakota State is the class of Division I-FCS.

Drew Lange’s North Dakota State Bison went into Saturday’s game against #2 Northern Iowa ranked 3rd in the Football Championship Subdivision. NDSU beat their Missouri Valley Football Conference rivals 27-19 in the Fargodome.

Image credit: Tina Haines Photography via GoBison.com

Meanwhile, top-ranked Georgia Southern lost to Appalachian State.

The 8-0 Bison, who likely will be #1 when the new FCS polls come out, are now one of two undefeated teams remaining in the Championship Subdivision. (Sam Houston State is the other.)

5. The Cardinals’ winningness rubbed off on their city’s football team.

On August 24 the St. Louis Cardinals were 10.5 games behind the Braves in the National League Wild Card race. You know the rest.

The Cardinals made an appearance with the World Series trophy before Sunday afternoon’s game between the previously winless St. Louis Rams and the New Orleans Saints. The Saints were favored by 13.5 points; they lost by 10. The Rams took control early in the game, leading 17-0 at the half and 24-0 in the third quarter. New Orleans scored 21 second-half points, but never managed to cut the lead to single digits.

The Cardinals didn’t rub off on the St. Louis Blues, who lost two games in western Canada this weekend.

6. Curtis Painter has wheels.

He may not be Peyton Manning, and he may not win games, but Colts quarterback Curtis Painter can run. Painter was the leading rusher in the Colts’ 27-10 loss to the Titans on Sunday, rushing for 79 yards on 7 carries (mostly in the 4th quarter after the game had been decided). He ran for more than twice as many yards on half as many attempts as the Titans’ Chris Johnson. (Maybe Tennessee should sign Curtis Painter, and his hair, to a $53.5 million deal.)

7. The worst team in the NFL will win the right to draft Stanley Spadowski.

Every time I see Andrew Luck, I ask myself, “Who does he remind me of?” Saturday night, while Luck was talking to reporters following Stanford’s triple-overtime win over USC, it hit me. He looks like Stanley Spadowski, Michael Richards’s character from Weird Al Yankovic’s 1989 cult comedy UHF:

What? You don't see it?

If you think that’s anything but a compliment, you need to see UHF.

8. Women’s Professional Soccer won’t leave its most marketable players in the hands of a negligent owner.

Late last week WPS eliminated its magicJack franchise. The Boca Raton team’s roster boasted some of the nation’s most recognizable women’s soccer players, including Hope Solo, Abby Wambach, and Meghan Rapinoe.

The magicJack’s owner, Dan Borislow, bought the team when it was the Washington Freedom, moved it to south Florida (where he lives), named it after his company (which makes a device that enables you to plug a standard phone into your computer’s USB port), then grossly mismanaged it. Apparently, Borislow did nothing to market the team; he didn’t even bother to set up an official team website. He neglected to submit game footage to the league and said that he was not interested in selling tickets.

Borislow also wore cleats to the practice facility so that he could scrimmage with the team. He fired magicJack coach Mike Lyons early in the season then made players double as coaches. Sometimes he coached the team himself.

WPS decided it would have no more of this nonsense. Unfortunately, cutting the magicJack leaves the league with only 5 teams, 4 of which are in the northeast.

I’m sad because the baseball season over, and with it, the beauty of summer and fall slowly disappear
as well. I’m also melancholy because I love baseball. It’s my favorite sport,  and in my view, by far the best sport on earth, as I’ve argued ad nausea for years on this site  and others.

Let me iterate that the 2011 postseason confirmed my views of baseball’s superiority to the other
major sports even more so.

Consider that Major League Baseball attendance rose during a recession, brought in more revenue than ever, and put out some of the highest-quality play in the game’s history during the past 30 days.

Sadly though, the national media can somehow ignore everything and obsessively focus on “TV ratings.” ESPN’s Colin Cowherd — who mocks the AGE of baseball fans, of all things –  is by far the worst offender, but even local Omaha radio was guilty yesterday.

An hour before Game 7 as I drove back from Chicago, the host said, “Well, baseball should finally get the nation’s attention tonight. Hope they don’t stink it up.”

I can’t enumerate how lazy, dishonest, yet expected this type of remark is, other than to say football,  especially the Cornhusker State’s beloved college ball, regularly sees blow outs or duds in “big games” that were hyped up enormously.  Yet no one mocks football before or condescends afterwards, whereas the hypocrisy of baseball bashers is legendary.

And whether or not the east coast and sports media (one in the same, really) unfairly covered the World Series is immaterial. Ratings were high overall (beat primetime NFL games twice; Game 7 was seen by more homes in DFW than any Cowboys Super Bowl), and we had a proud, historic franchise with baseball’s best fans take the title over a likable team now owning improbable back to back AL pennants, representing America’s most patriotic state.

It was awesome theatre, and neither of my favorite teams was close to postseason play. Does not matter. It’s baseball. And nothing in sports beats October  baseball.  One month before the final pitch from Jason  Motte, all the thrills started on a historically consequential  night.

And, as even Jeff  Passan, noted Yahoo curmudgeon opined,who cares about ratings?

“Baseball needs to stop apologizing for its poor TV ratings. They are the furthest thing from a
smudge on the game and where it has moved in today’s sporting  world.”

ESPN Radio’s banal Mike and Mike, who audaciously talked April NFL  Draft the morning of Game 6 of World Series and Eagles football the morning of Game 7, might care about viewing numbers — but most do not. Mature people, “old” people, know what the best game is. I suppose, being over 30, I’m old now too; but on the other hand, everyone under 30 I know loved every pitch the past four weeks.

Why?

The product for the last month was simply marvelous. And again, this began on Sept. 28, a night that was arguably the single greatest in the sport’s regular season history.

As for those errors that baseball critics, and fans of long-gone teams (Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox in particular) will allude to, Tim McCarver aptly noted yesterday on radio that baseball’s “imperfections”  make it the perfect sport. So true.

As Jerod Morris and I recapped on the eve of the World Series, in round one we had 19 of a possible 20
games, with two teams winning Game 5 on the road versus the two “best” teams — in the biased media’s eyes. Like 2010, the two teams (Yankees/Phillies) that spent the most money were therefore the putative favorites, but the beauty of baseball is there are NO favorites.

Baseball is truly the antithesis of college football where, yes, the two “best” teams arguably meet for the title, but that sport is a farce because teams’ seasons are rendered meaningless if not ranked by pundits in the top 10 in August, or when they lose their first game. Computers decide their fate.

The LCS in both leagues went six, and though some say it was sloppy or “too high scoring” (same critics who get bored in low scoring games) on the NL side, both were awesome. These were the best playoffs since 2003 or 2004, and in the long view, considering the 2011 Fall Classic went the distance, likely better.

The National League title bout had division rivals who despise each other, and the Texas-Detroit series, in hindsight, was actually one of the best and most competitive in years. Somehow this was also ignored by critics, just as baseball being the only affordable and safe professional sport a regular family can still afford, also is. Attendance won’t plummet anytime soon, Mr. Cowherd.

I’ll close by echoing where Passan culminated, but in my own words:

Give me a five month moratorium on the elite media’s cacophony about Major League baseball’s “declining television ratings.” Following the most compelling World Series in a decade, the overriding theme was that nobody watched?

Quoting Passan directly: “And to those people, all I have to say is: Sorry, suckers. You’re missing something great.”

38 of a possible 41 games, three one run game 5s in a 24-hour period to close round one, walk off wins,
unknown heroes, three one-run World Series tilts…andGame 6. Heck, even Bob Costas raved about
it. The Great Curt Schilling said Midwest fans, Midwest players, and Cardinal Baseball is everything that’s good about America, sports-wise. I can’t disagree.

Sadly, some people prefer to hate and espouse ignorance. For the rest of us, 112 days until pitchers and catchers report!

I’ll write more about the game tomorrow. I need to process it. Need my head to stop spinning.

So I’ll leave you this evening with two videos. One is from 1991, the other is from tonight.

The first features Jack Buck’s famous “And we’ll see you tomorrow night!” call on Kirby Puckett’s home run. The second features his son saying the same words on David Freese’s home run tonight.

I’ve said a lot of disparaging things about Joe Buck. Not tonight. That was awesome, and frankly it was the absolute perfect way for a game like this to end.

Update: As you’ll see below, they removed the original video I had of Joe Buck’s call from last night. Here is another video someone put together that features both calls:

Jack Buck, 1991 World Series, Game 6

Joe Buck, 2011 World Series, Game 6

What an awesome, awesome moment.

I don’t often find myself on the save wavelength as Buck in big sporting events. I rarely find his tone or excitement level matching my own. But there was no better way for such a unique, memorable, historical game to end than Buck paying the ultimate homage to his father calling a sport shared by so many fathers and sons.

Indeed, we will see you tomorrow night baseball.

But thanks for tonight. What a night. Awesome. Sublime.

Though I’m a White Sox fan first, foremost, and forever, I’ve had the good fortune of seeing the rise of the Texas Rangers from up close over the last four years. In fact, their ascent from AL West doormat to the cusp of a world championship coincided neatly with me moving here. (And, for the record, I’ve been in attendance for both of their ALCS clinching wins. Coincidence? Hell no it’s not. Which is why I’ll be requesting a ring if they win one.)

Perhaps the largest sea change in this town, a town that only has time for football and winners, has occurred with respect to public opinion of Ron Washington, affectionately dubbed the Old School Brother here in Dallas. When I first got down here, it seemed like Washington was managing for his job* on a near daily basis. As things stand in the sports world right now, there may be no coach outside of Bill Belichick and Mike Tomlin with more job security than Wash.

* – In fact, there is a famous story often told on the radio that Nolan Ryan and/or Jon Daniels was ready to fire Washington but didn’t want to do it on the manager’s birthday. The Rangers then proceeded to go on a winning streak, Wash’s job was saved, and the rest as they say is history.

And for those of you who cheer for another team as I do, and who haven’t been able to watch from up close as this Rangers thing has coalesced over the last several years, allow me to give you some keen (but easily deducible) insight into the Ron Washington Managerial Doctrine.

Image source: RollingOut.com

Wash can be at once revered and reviled for his simple approach to things – simple at least in how it appears from the outside looking in – but this simplicity, at least in one respect, and in concert with Washington’s belief in aggressive baseball, is a huge part of the reason why the Texas Rangers are in the World Series for the second year in a row. It is a simplicity that can be perfectly viewed and understood through one quick Washington sound byte from yesterday:

Via ESPN:

“Harrison has been a big part of this team all year,” Washington said. “I am not changing the things that I’ve been doing all year. That’s why we are where we are and that’s why I’m saying Harrison.”

The quote is Washington’s response to the notion that yesterday’s rain delay opens up Game 7 to be started by Game 4 hero (and Game 5 comedian) Derek Holland. Matt Harrison, who started Game 3, has been slated to start a potential Game 7 all along. Would Wash ride the hot hand of Holland instead, people wondered, now that the Dutch Oven would be able to pitch with requisite rest?

The Old School Brother put a swift end to that notion, and in the process showed everyone in America why his players would, maybe even literally, run through a brick wall for him.

Ron Washington believes in his players. He trusts his players. Even when public opinion has turned against a member of the Rangers, Washington’s never does – so long as that guy has a track record of producing for Washington in the past, of course. It’s not blind faith that Washington puts in his players, it’s earned faith; and there is a huge difference. Matt Harrison is a great example.

Harrison went 14-9 with a 3.39 ERA during the regular season. That’s outstanding for an AL pitcher, especially considering where he pitches half of his home games. And though Harrison has an ERA north of 5.00 during the playoffs, and hasn’t pitched more than 5.0 innings in any game, his 15:7 rate of Ks to walks is reasonably good and he hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in any start.

Considering Holland’s superlative outing in Game 4 (8+ shutout innings) it’s natural for fans and media alike to wonder if Washington is at all wavering in who he’d throw for Game 7 – as Tony La Russa is, stating that he’d likely go with Chris Carpenter – but Wash is not a man who wavers easily.

His players love him for it. The fans and media and Dallas have learned to love him for it. Objective Rangers observers like me have come to respect him for it. And certainly the “baseball gods” look upon it kindly, because we have example after example of Wash’s players coming through for him when he’s stuck by them.

One such example took place in Game 6 of this year’s ALCS when many in the Metroplex were clamoring for scuffling Michael Young to be dropped in the order. Wash hung tough with Young in the cleanup spot and his most tenured regular responded with 3 hits, a homer, and 5 RBIs in the game that sent Texas to the Fall Classic. Another example was Game 2. Josh Hamilton is clearly hampered by his groin injury and many here in Dallas wondered if he should be benched or dropped in the order. Wash said no. Hamilton delivered a key sac fly and has gotten at least one hit in each of the last three games.

At some point, Wash’s faith in his guys will fail him. It’s inevitable. Ask any White Sox fan how well staying the course with aging, struggling veterans works after watching the dreadful 2011 season. As with many human qualities, a person’s greatest strength can sometimes prove to also be their greatest weakness when circumstances turn against them. It may not happen in Game 7 (if there is one), it may not happen next year, but it will happen. It always does. That’s how baseball go.

Josh Hamilton’s skills will begin eroding. Neftali Feliz won’t be able to find the strike zone. Ian Kinsler’s running and defense won’t be able to make up for the stretches when he can’t make contact, and on and on. Wash will stick them, and at some point the hits won’t come or the saves will be blown or the defensive plays won’t get made. The Rangers will have to adjust, and so will Wash. And we’ll see if he will, but that’s a long, long ways off.

What matters tonight and what matters tomorrow is that every player on the Rangers’ roster is capable of helping Texas win a World Series, so Washington’s trust in the guys who got him here is well-placed and will likely be rewarded. Even if it’s not, the Rangers won’t lose because Washington put the faith in the wrong guy. They wouldn’t be here, one game from a championship, if he hadn’t so steadfastly supported the players in the clubhouse over the last two years.

And just watch. If there is a Game 7, I bet Matt Harrison comes out and pitches well. Wash’s players do that for him when he stands by them. Besides, it’s not a wall Harrison would have to run through for Washington, just five or six innings to deliver a winnable score to the bullpen. Harrison has proven that when he’s at his best he can do that, and Ron Washington brings out the best in his players.

That’s why no manager in baseball has been better over the last two years than Wash, and his earned faith in his players just may be returned to him in the form a championship.

It would be a great moment for the team and this entire city where I now pay my rent, and it would be a well deserved one for this oft misunderstood and underestimated manager who could not be a more perfect fit for the collection of ballplayers in his dugout.

And I have to tip my cap to this Rangers fan.

Is it cheap? Yes.

Does he need to do something about the number? Sure.

But for the thousands upon thousands of Rangers fans whose Cliff Lee t-shirts and jerseys were only relevant for half a season, there is no better way to salvage a perfectly usable article of clothing.

It is, after all, the Year of the Napoli.

Image source: Twitter

**********

As anyone who has ever written about, watched, or even just thought about sports can tell you, statistics can paint whatever picture you want them to based on how you present them. This is, of course, not just limited to sports. As the old saying goes, “there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

With Colby Lewis set to take the mound for the Texas Rangers in Game 6 of what has been an incredibly compelling World Series in which even the blowout treated us to an individual performance for the ages by Albert Pujols, I am intrigued by the superlative playoff statistics compiled by Lewis over the past two seasons and their power to comfort or antagonize Rangers fans, Cardinals fans, and objective bystanders alike.

It just depends on how you look at them.

Image credit: AP Photo/Brian Snyder via Bakersfield Observed

Colby Lewis’ Playoff Dominance

For Rangers fans, or those like me who predicted that the Rangers would win the series in 6 games, all they need to see to have confidence in Lewis taking the bump Wednesday night is this: a 4-1 record in 44 postseason innings over the last two years with a 2.22 ERA and a 1.075 WHIP. The Rangers are 5-2 in Lewis’ seven playoff starts in 2010 and 2011.

With stats like that, how can anyone expect anything other than Schilling-like greatness from Lewis in Game 6? I certainly am.

In fact, Lewis is the reason I picked the Rangers to win the series in 6 games. Based on his playoff track record, I felt certain that he would outduel young Jaime Garcia in their two starts. For the same reason, I felt that Chris Carpenter and his solid playoff track record would outduel C.J. Wilson and his shaky playoff history.

If all went according to my master plan, that meant Texas would take one of the two opening games in St. Louis (they did), and that St. Louis would win at least one in Texas (they did), and that if Texas could take two out of three at home (which they did), the series would go back to St. Louis with the Rangers up 3-2 and Lewis on the hill. I got the sequence a bit wrong, as the Rangers were able to win Carpenter’s start last night after dropping Game 3, but the end result and current circumstance is what I anticipated.

And now it’s up to Colby Lewis, who we should expect greatness from based on his clear emergence as a “big game pitcher”…right?

Well…maybe.

Again, it’s all in how you look at the stats.

“Regression To The Mean” and Sample Size

I am no advanced statistics buff, as you’ll soon see from the rudimentary (but still telling) statistical analysis I’m about to present. I do understand the basics though, and I know all about the irresistible power of regression toward the mean.

Regression toward the mean is defined at Wolfram MathWorld thusly:

Reversion to the mean, also called regression to the mean, is the statistical phenomenon stating that the greater the deviation of a random variate from its mean, the greater the probability that the next measured variate will deviate less far. In other words, an extreme event is likely to be followed by a less extreme event.

To put this in rudimentary baseball terms that even Joe Morgan could understand, consider the following example:

Gordon Beckham is a lifetime .249 hitter after three seasons and 1,485 major league at bats. That means that, on average, we would expect Beckham to get roughly one hit every four at bats. That is his established track record over a relatively large sample size at the major league level.

During the 2011 season, Beckham had six games in which he got three hits, either in four at bats or five depending on the game. His batting average in those extremely small sample sizes was .750 (if 3-4) or .600 (if 3-5). These are outliers. White Sox fans would love it if Beckham could do that every game, but no baseball player could. 100+ years of data collection has told us that a player hitting just .300 over any statistically significant sample size is outstanding. Hitting .600 or .750 is impossible. Even hitting .300 for Beckham over the course of a full season would be seen as a large and unexpected deviation from his already established average.

This is a very important concept to understand when it comes to discussing the playoffs, especially the notion of a “big game pitcher” or “big game player.”

The problem with playoff stats is sample size. As any fantasy baseball player knows, anyone in the Bigs can get hot for a week. Who has had their fantasy team carried by Garrett Jones for one monster week? Who parlayed Brent Morel’s hot September into playoff wins down the stretch? Did you know that Javier Vazquez went 5-0 with a 0.71 ERA and a 0.63 WHIP in five September starts this season?

In small sample sizes, anything is possible depending on who’s hot and who’s not. Especially in baseball, you cannot declare a player “clutch” or a “choker” just because he does or does not perform well in a single baseball playoff series.

Billy Hatcher hit .750 in the 1990 World Series en route to being named the MVP. Talk about clutch, right? He had 9 hits, four of them doubles, in 15 at bats. But how statistically significant was Hatcher’s series? It wasn’t. It was impressive, yes; but Hatcher was a career .264 hitter who caught lightning in a bottle. Just because he was magical over four October nights in 1990, would you rather have he or Alex Rodriguez (and his career .277 playoff batting average) up in a key spot in the Fall Classic needing a base hit? Say what you will about ARod, but in general I’ll take the guy who has hit .302 and mashed 629 HRs over close to 10,000 career at bats as opposed to the guy who hit .264 over 4,000+ at bats.

Why? Because baseball history has shown us that as playoff sample sizes increase, a player’s playoff stats tend to closely resemble his regular season stats. Regression to the mean.

Look at Derek Jeter, who is renowned for rising to the occasion in October.

In 1996, as a 22-year old, Jeter got 22 hits in 61 playoff at bats. That’s a .360 batting average, 0.44 points higher than he hit during the regular season. The Yankees won the World Series and Jeter was hailed as Mr. Clutch for his performance on the grand stage. In his next playoff appearance, in 1997, Jeter hit .333 (after hitting just .291 in the regular season) as the Yankees lost to the Indians. In 1998, with the Yankees back in the World Series, Captain Clutch came through again in crunch time, hitting .353 (after a .324 regular season) against the Padres to help deliver another title to the Bronx.

But an interesting thing has happened over time as Jeter has accumulated more and more playoff at bats (623 in 152 games, to be exact): playoff Jeter has started to look a lot like regular season Jeter.

Jeter’s career batting average is .313. His playoff average is .307. His OBP is a little higher during the regular season and his SLG is a little higher in the postseason.

What does this mean? It means that Jeter isn’t necessarily “clutch” come playoff time. He’s just…Jeter, a very, very good player who is really no better or worse in “big” spots than he is in “little” spots. In the playoffs Jeter tends to do what we’ve come to expect from him in the regular season.

Taken in isolation, there are small playoff sample sizes that are great as well as some that are bad (.118 BA in the 2001 ALCS, .176 in the .2007 ALDS). We’ve had the luxury of seeing the playoff highs and lows of Jeter smoothed out over time because he’s had so many opportunities. And the conclusion we can draw is that Jeter is no better or no worse in the playoffs. He’s played nearly a full season’s worth of playoff games and his overall playoff numbers (.307/.374/.465, 20 HR, 107 R, 18 SB) are pretty close to what we’d expect from a normal Jeter regular season.

This is a long, roundabout way to illustrate this, using Jeter as a general example: whether he starts off well or poorly, the more playoff games a player plays, the closer he tends to look like his regular season self. Said another way: the larger the sample size, the more a player regresses towards his mean.

So what does this mean for Colby Lewis and the Rangers Wednesday?

It might not mean a damn thing. Or it might.

Colby Lewis vs History

As I said when I previewed Game 5, anything can happen in the small sample size of a 9 inning baseball game. Colby Lewis could fail to record an out and he could throw a no-hitter, and everything in between. No one person in the world can state with any certainty what will happen. We can, however, use statistical trends to deduce what is likely to happen. And this is where looking at Colby Lewis in particular becomes so damn intriguing as it relates to Game 6.

As I mentioned above, Lewis has come to acquire the label of “big game pitcher” because of his 4-1 record and 2.22 ERA in the playoffs, and rightfully so. Legends are made/born in October, and there is something to be said for a guy who performs at his best when the stakes are the highest. But the question that must be answered for anyone trying to predict what will happen Wednesday night is this: how long can playoff Colby Lewis continue to so thoroughly outperform regular season Colby Lewis?

If we are to put our trust in the concept of regression toward the mean, the answer to that question is not one that will comfort Rangers fans.

Since he returned from Japan in 2010, Lewis has taken the mound 64 times for the Rangers during the regular season. In those 64 starts he has logged 401.1 innings and delivered a record of 26-23 with an ERA of 4.059 and a WHIP of 1.201. Those are decent but not great numbers, certainly nowhere near as dominant as his playoff numbers of 4-1, 2.22, and 1.075.

What I wondered, though, thinking back to guys like Curt Schilling and David Wells and Andy Pettitte, all legendary for being “clutch” in the playoffs, is just how unprecedented this chasm between Lewis’ regular season stats and his postseason stats may or may not be. Because certainly we should reasonably expect Lewis’ playoff numbers over time to revert closer to his personal career mean, but Rangers fans and people who predicted the Rangers in 6 don’t want to hear that. They want to keep thinking that Lewis really is a “big game pitcher” and that his outstanding playoff stats are not simply a statistical anomaly.

So I prepared the chart below, which shows the top 11 pitchers all-time for career playoff wins, compared to Colby Lewis and with Chris Carpenter thrown in just for fun. I chose these 11 pitchers to compare Lewis against because the all-time leaders in ERA were all relievers or pitchers from long, long ago whose numbers are skewed by the era in which they pitched. This list of 11 includes some of the greatest hurlers of the past three decades, all of whom have larger playoff sample sizes than pitchers from the era before them thanks to introduction of the wild card.

What I want you to focus your attention on, and what I used this chart to illustrate for myself, is the difference between these pitchers’ playoff performances and their regular season performance as compared to that of Colby Lewis.

Let’s break down the findings.

What this chart shows us is that, on average, the 11 pitchers with the most wins in MLB history (a sample size that encompasses 1,862 innings) had ERAs nearly a half run better than their regular season ERA (the -0.473 figure) and WHIPs that were 0.057 lower in the playoffs as compared to the regular season.

In general, we can make the following statement based on this data: the winningest playoff pitchers tended to perform a half earned run and a half baserunner better in the playoffs than in the regular season.

Compare that with Colby Lewis’ career playoff stats. Playoff Colby is performing nearly two earned runs better per nine innings (1.839) and 1.26 baserunners per inning better than Regular Season Colby.

Of all the pitchers on this chart, Lewis is the outlier. The closest comparables in terms of ERA are El Duque (-1.580 ERA), Dave Stewart (-1.180), and Curt Schilling (-1.230). In WHIP, three pitchers actually have bigger differences than Lewis (Schilling, Stewart, and Wells), but Lewis still obliterates the average.

It’s clear from this chart there are pitchers like Lewis who have been just okay in the regular season but who have, compared to their own track record, risen to the occasion in the playoffs. And they are names you might expect to hear if you asked a random assortment of 1,000 baseball fans to name the best postseason pitchers of the last 25 years: El Duque, Schilling, Wells, Stewart, and John Smoltz.

It’s also clear that there are incredible pitchers, sure-fire Hall of Famers, who pitched below their established norms come playoff time. Again, they are names a grizzled baseball fan would expect to be such a list: Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens, both somewhat ignominious for not quite living up to postseason expectations.

And then there are guys who proved to be pretty much the same pitcher in the playoffs as they were in the regular season: Andy Pettitte, Tom Glavine, Whitey Ford, and Catfish Hunter.

So to bring it all back full circle, here is what this chart and the concept of regression towards the mean suggests is in store for Colby Lewis: simply put, it suggests that the more playoff innings that Lewis logs, the closer his current playoff ERA (2.22) will come to resemble his regular season ERA (4.059).

If Colby Lewis truly is a “big game pitcher” in the sense that he can surpass even his own expected limits in pressure situations, then he might be able to continue to pitch better than a 4.059 clip, but more than likely the 2.22 is due to rise. How high? Who knows. But a regression, perhaps even an extreme one (unless Lewis himself proves extreme) is in order. Math dictates it*, and 1,862 innings pitched by some of the best pitchers in baseball history suggests it.

* – Granted, an alternate argument could be made that Lewis’ true mean is closer to 2.22 and that his regular season ERA will someday regress towards that figure, but such an argument would be trusting a 44 inning sample over a 401.1 inning sample, so it’s not very reasonable and thus dismissed for our purposes here.

Colby Lewis and Game 6

When his career is over, it is unlikely that Colby Lewis will be considered on par with any of the pitchers in the table above. The late-blooming righty is already 31 years old and has recorded just 38 wins in his major league career, so he probably doesn’t have time to accumulate the regular season numbers all of those guys possess.

But that old cliche is a cliche for a reason: legends are made in October. With a winning start on Wednesday night, Colby Lewis certainly becomes a legend in the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex. Depending on how dominant it is, he just may start to inch his way into the bottom rungs of conversations about the best playoff pitchers in MLB history, though he’d certainly need at least another 30-40 innings to legitimize his incredible first 45+ as a playoff pitcher.

I’ll restate the obvious – anything can happen in the small sample size of a 9 inning baseball game – before asking the only obvious follow-up question to this long and winding post: what is the most likely outcome of Colby Lewis’ start Wednesday night?

The answer is that, most likely, Lewis will regress towards his mean by putting up a stat line equivalent to some point in between his 2.22 playoff ERA and his 4.059 regular season era.

This suggests a 5 inning/2 run outing (3.60), a 6 inning/2 run outing (3.00), a 7 inning/2 run outing (2.57), a 7 inning/3 run outing (3.86), or an 8 inning/3 run outing (3.38). Each of those possibilities is a quality start and each would, theoretically, give the Rangers a chance to win by keeping the scoring at a reasonable level before turning it over to fearsome foursome of Feldman, Ogando, Adams, and Feliz. Of course, the Rangers scored just two runs in each of the two games in St. Louis to start the series, so unless the bats pick up that pace, none of these hypothetical Lewis stat lines would be winners.

Then again, the Rangers scored 855 runs during the regular season, good for a 5.27 per game clip. In this World Series, they are averaging just 3.8 runs per game. So if the Rangers progress from 3.8 runs towards their mean of 5.27, while Colby Lewis regresses from 2.22 runs towards his mean of 4.057, then we can reasonably expect…

…a baseball game.

We can expect a 9-inning baseball game, full of twists, and turns, and events that cannot be predicted or even explained. (And yes, that GIF represents my head exploding, which I felt about to happen the further I dizzied myself with stats, and means, and blah blah blah.)

One of the aspects I love so much about baseball is that statistics are fun to juggle and jostle, and we can gain plenty of insight into players and teams from trends over time, and we can even make predictions that prove out over large sample sizes; but at the end of the day it all comes down to what the players do on the field in those 9 isolated innings that determine the winner and loser of a single game.

In this case, Game 6 just happens to hold the potential to crown a World Series champion.

I think it will.

Statistically Insignificant World Series Game 6 Prediction

Rangers win 4-3.

Colby Lewis pitches 7 innings of 3-run ball before ceding the mound to Mike Adams and Neftali Feliz.

And Ron Washington can jiggle the jig of a champion.

What is your pick?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

**********

* – All stats courtesy of the greatest website in the history of the Internet: baseball-reference.com

Did you expect to see Albert Pujols jack three home runs in a single game? He did.

Did you expect the signature pitching performance of the 2011 playoffs to come from the mustachioed Derek Holland? It did.

Did you expect a team to win by driving in the tying and winning runs on consecutive sacrifice flies? It happened.

So I present this World Series Game 5 preview to you with absolutely no certainty that anything I say (except for one thing at the end) will come true or even seem reasonable once the 54th out of the night is recorded.

I’ve said all along that I expect the Rangers to win the series in 6 games. With the series currently knotted at two games a piece, that prediction still has a chance to come through, but the Rangers must win the next two games. When I made my prediction initially, I did so expecting the Cardinals to win Chris Carpenter’s two starts, both of which would be against the Rangers’ supposed ace C.J. Wilson. Now Wilson must come up big for Texas, otherwise the Cardinals head home needing to win just one of two in the friendly confines of both their own ballpark and their own league’s rules.

Is there any reason to be hopeful that Wilson can turn in a good start? The best I can say is…maybe.

Wilson’s playoff struggles are now well-known. He’s been terrific over the last two regular seasons for Texas, but his playoff ERA this season is 7.17. Rangers fans should be encouraged by the fact that Wilson did have a respectable 3.70 ERA over four playoff starts last year, including a solid 6 inning, 2 ER performance in his only start of the World Series. So it’s not like he in incapable of performing under the pressure of baseball’s brightest lights. But the fact remains that Texas doesn’t win enough of the games Wilson starts come October. They are now 2-6 in his eight playoff starts the last two seasons.

But, again on the bright side, Wilson’s best start of the 2011 playoffs came in Game 1 against Carpenter. It wasn’t great (5.2 innings, 3 ER, 6 BB), but it was something resembling progress. He’ll likely need to progress much more though tonight considering Chris Carpenter’s 8-2 record and 3.10 ERA in 13 career postseason starts. With the Rangers’ prowess in The Ballpark, I’d say Carpenter would do well to repeat the 6 inning, 2-run performance he had in Game 1. Wilson will get some run support. He just has to make sure he keeps his team in the game so the now rested bullpen can carry the Rangers home should they get a lead, or hold the Cardinals bats in check should the Rangers need to come back.

Yesterday in the early afternoon, I texted a friend of mine who is a Rangers fan and said “I think the Dutch Oven steps it up tonight.” Derek Holland proved me right with his performance. I just had a weird gut feeling that the guy who tossed four shutouts during the regular season would come alive. It was a gut feeling induced by law of averages. I figured at some point the dominant Derek Holland had to show himself. Such has been his career track record. And since it had been a while, Game 4 seemed like the perfect opportunity. I have no such gut feelings about tonight’s game.

I think Texas will win, because I think whoever wins this game will win the World Series, and I still believe Texas will win the World Series (even in six games); b.ut I have no real confidence that CJ Wilson can outduel or even evenduel Chris Carpenter, which means I think the Rangers’ bullpen will outduel the Cardinals bullpen and Texas will win in a comeback. That’s not an outlandish prediction, and certainly the Rangers’ bullpen has proven capable, but predicting a team to win when I think they lose the starting pitching battle is always worrisome.

But, alas, that’s what I’ve decided I think will happen. I think Carpenter will give Tony La Russa six pretty strong innings and then Dr. Tinker will start mixing and matching his bullpen, at which time the Rangers will start cutting into whatever lead St. Louis can jump out to off of Wilson.

We’ll see. I’ll be the first to tell you that I place zero confidence points on this prediction. It’s baseball. Anything can and will happen. But I’ll stay committed to my prediction of the series: Rangers in 6. And for that to happen, Texas has to win tonight. Either because of or despite their “ace” C.J. Wilson, they will.

Now it’s your turn:

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Here is one prediction I do feel good about making: whoever wins tonight is winning this series. Such a statement is not earth-shattering and should surprise no one. When a series is tied at 2-2, the winner of Game 5 wins the series far more often than they do not.

With Colby Lewis pitching in Game 6 (an expected win for the Rangers in my book) and a potential Game 7 being in St. Louis under NL rules (an expected win for the Cardinals in my book) this is the game most up in the air. So though one team will be crowned champion after either Game 6 or 7, the series will more than likely be won or lost tonight. Considering those stakes, and how boring the Monday night game should be, you have no excuse for not tuning in.

**********

Jerod takes a stab at Ari’s most challenging slate of questions yet, and then they discuss what has made the 2011 MLB playoffs so memorable before previewing the World Series matchup between Texas and St. Louis.

Click play on the player below to listen to this week’s episode:

Click here to take MLB Trivia Challenge Podcast Quiz #14

The link above skips you to the bottom of this page where quiz is embedded. Podcast will continue playing.

Quick Standings Update (as of October 19th, 2:22 PM CT):

1. Craig Davey, Dan Greenham, Tony Nelson – 81
2. Chuck Dombrock, Jeff Wallack, Kevin Luljak – 80
3. John Krampf – 78
4. Louie Tartaglia – 75

This is everyone with 70 or more points. A few of the usual suspects haven’t turned in the last few quizzes, so I expect they will soon. If you think there is some error in your score, let us know and we can review.

Take note: ALL QUIZZES MUST BE TURNED IN BY THURSDAY, OCTOBER 27TH at 11:59 PM CT. No exceptions. We’ll announce the winner of the grand prize on Friday.

A few quick notes:

• The MLB Trivia Challenge is available on iTunes. Listen and subscribe here.
• Be sure to follow the MSF Trivia Challenge Podcast on Twitter: @MLBTriviaMSF.
• If you like the intro and outro music, and I know you will, it was provided to us by the Twin Cats out of Indianapolis. We encourage you to like them on Facebook or check out their music here.

Here are links to all the old quizzes, in case you missed one:

• Episode 1 with Ken Rosenthal
• Episode 2 with Will Carroll
• Episode 3 with Big League Stew
• Episode 4 with Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors
• Episode 5 with Derek Schultz of XL950 in Indianapolis
• Episode 6 with Deadspin founder Will Leitch
• Episode 7 with Gregg Doyel of CBS Sports
• Episode 8 with Scott Sargent of Waiting For Next Year
• Episode 9 with Jonah Keri of Grantland
• Episode 10 with Jim Margalus of South Side Sox
• Episode 11 with Al Beaton of Bless You Boys
• Episode 12 with Trenni Kusnierek
• Episode 13 with Amanda Rykoff
  

Your Turn to Compete and Win Prizes

Now onto the fun stuff: your chance to match wits with the “experts” and win prizes.

As explained on the rules and information page, we will be rewarding one winner each time a new MLB Trivia Challenge Podcast and quiz are posted. This winner will be awarded as follows:

• Each correct answer nets you one point. Most points wins.
• In the event of a tie, we will choose from the top group at random.
• The winner receives a $20 gift certificate to Chili’s*, which is perfect for a Chili’s Lunch Break.

• Weekly winners can go bold with the new six-dollar lunch break combo at Chili’s. Choose a house made soup or salad and then pick a half Texas Toast sandwich like the Southwestern BLT smothered in cilantro lime mayo.
• See all the great Lunch Break combos at Chilis.com.
• Note: You have ONE WEEK from today to submit yours answers and be eligible for the weekly prize. Next Thursday at 11:59 pm CT, entries are closed and we award a winner.

In addition to the weekly prizes, a grand prize winner will be chosen at the end of the season. Simply put, the grand prize winner will be the person who tallies up the most points throughout the season, regardless of when the quiz is taken.

A few final notes you need to know before we let you have at it:

• LISTEN to the podcast; each week we will be including one bonus question taken directly from our discussion.
• ONLY your first entry counts, for the weekly prize and grand prize.
• MAKE SURE you use the same UserID throughout the season. This is how we will keep track of your scores.
• PAY CLOSE ATTENTION to the instructions after each question. Due to the parameters of the quiz program we are using, and our inability to hand-grade thousands of quizzes each week, we must request that you very specific and particular in how you answer the questions. Thus, you MUST spell names correctly. Think of it this way: attention to detail is paramount in baseball, so shouldn’t it be part of the challenge? Absolutely.

And now, drumroll the please, we give you your chance to answer. Have fun!

**********

Obviously we cannot post the answers because this is an ongoing trivia challenge.

Check back next Friday when we post the final results of the MLB Trivia Challenge sponsored by Generational Equity. It very could include an announcement of a tie-breaker challenge, unless someone can separate themselves from the pack this week.

Remember: someone is winning an iPad and a subscription to MLB.tv when this is all said and done…it might as well be you.

* – Chili’s gift certificate good in U.S. only.

If the highest paid Yankee making the final out of the season sounds familiar, it is. Rodriguez also struck out last year to end Game 6 at The Ballpark in Arlington. At least this time he went down swinging.

The Yankees’ elimination means that their World Series drought now stands at two long, painful years. Yes, that means that young Yankees fans across the nation will be forced to suffer the indignity of celebrating their second birthdays never having experienced pinstripe glory.

Poor babies.

And if articles like this are any indication, the young ‘uns in the Yankee fan base aren’t the only ones we should be calling poor babies. (I don’t like ARod any more than the next guy, but that seemed a bit harsh.)

But I’ll cut the Yankees fans some slack. Everything in life is based on perspective. When you have a $203 million payroll, you expect championships. (Even when your #2 starter makes only 0.19% of that $203 million.) You certainly don’t expect to get just as far as a team from your own division that only paid $41 million for its players.

So I get it.

Yankees fans are upset, like all fan bases are the day after their team’s seasons end, so we should all cut them a little slack no matter now ridiculous and out of touch their complaining may sound to the rest of us.

I mean really. Put yourself in a Yankees fan’s shoes. Try cheering for a $203 million team that won more games than any other in the AL but can only muster a fifth game in the ALDS. I’m sure it sucks. Bad. So let them whine, bitch, and moan. You probably would be too.

Side note: for the most honest Yankees playoff coverage you’ll see all day, click here.

Now if you’ll excuse me, I have my omnipleasant existence as a White Sox fan to get back to.

**********

Image source for baby Yankees fan pic: Here

But I did not like the news in this tweet, which passed by on my Twitter feed just a few minutes ago:

A sad day in the Fornelli household. RT @Ken_Rosenthal: Just talked to Jermaine Dye. He is retiring.

Now, some may quibble with me calling a guy who only spent five season in the Windy City a legend, but quibble all you want. From Frank Thomas to Ernie Banks, from Sammy Sosa to Minnie Minoso, from Carlton Fox to this guy, over the last 200+ seasons of baseball in Chicago only one man has won a World Series MVP award while leading a Chicago baseball team to a World Series title:

Jermaine Dye.

I haven’t seen Ken Rosenthal’s article yet, so I’m not sure if anything has been announced in terms of the White Sox recognizing Dye, or of him signing a 1-day contract with the White Sox to officially retire a “good guy”, but I certainly hope something of this nature comes to fruition.

He’ll always be among my favorite White Sox players ever, not just for what he did in 2005, but for the unreal 2006 he put up. Dye finished fifth in the MVP voting that year – an OPS 0f 1.006, 44 HRs, 120 RBI – as he almost single-handedly tried to rescue a pitching staff that buckled late in the season as the innings from the 2005 World Series run took their toll. The White Sox missed the playoffs that year, but Dye proved his greatness by turning in one of the finest offensive seasons in White Sox history.

Thanks for all the memories Jermaine, most importantly for 2005. I know you played in five different uniforms during your career, but you’ll always look best in black.

In honor of JD, here’s random fan video of him hitting a home run off of Kevin Millwood. The homer comes around the 1:50 mark of the video, after Dye fouls off a number of pitches while facing a full count. Ahh…memories.

AJ is true old-school, and comes with the hard heat, much like Don Drysdale and the rest of the vintage Dodgers pitching staff. He is the true die-hard, even who even in late October, after a historic Midwest windstorm basically tells Bud Selig and everyone else that it is now officially winter, insists that the biggest drama in all of sports right now is a World Series that does not include the New York Yankees or even Philadelphia Phillies…

Bud Selig still tries as well, announcing this week that he’s looking at ways to further expand baseball’s post-season field, which just might finally fulfill Bud’s manifest destiny and stretch the World Series right into Thanksgiving.

But for now, MLB is enjoying a World Series between San Francisco and a Dallas-area team. Back in the day those two markets made for some pretty intense NFC Championship games.

Myself, I’m still trying to recover from that final fourth down in Green Bay last Sunday night when Brett Favre fell right on his Wrangler ‘Open Fly’, then got up, had time to read War and Peace (because the entire Packers defense is now on IR), and still have plenty of time to launch one final pass into the end zone.

I’m still waiting that ball to fall into the waiting arms of Randy Moss, as it would had been the ultimate alternate ending. Cris Collinsworth would had needed to take a AED device to bring Al Michaels back but it would had been epic.

So maybe Favre just has a broken ankle ‘glorified sprain’. Nothing that a few Vicodin can’t alleviate. And maybe Commissioner Goodell just does drop the hammer and puts BF out of his misery by Week 9 or Week 10 at the latest with a one-game suspension, just to prove one final time that there really is no one is above the NFL law.

But this Sunday Brett will be taking shotgun snaps in Foxboro after being rolled onto the field on a gurney, he will compete in his 956^th consecutive start and throw four TD’s…

Or four INT’s.

It’s just to the point that there’s so much to follow – and so little time.

Ari just couldn’t believe it when I tweeted how compelling the historic first regular season home game at the Orlando Magic’s new palace was: a spectacular venue featuring more sky-boxes, a much larger team store, a gigantic center-court scoreboard and the mother of all ribbon panels going around the place. The potential for new advertising revenue streams is enormous – and if you missed it don’t worry, the arena will be outdated and replaced with something even more jazzy in 20 years.

Still, was easily the most anticipated opening of a professional sports venue since the Pittsburgh Penguins opened their new barn a few weeks back.

Or maybe even since the New Meadowlands Stadium opened with the Jets and Giants playing on consecutive days. Never mind that both teams had a couple pre-season games, not to mention a soccer match, a few lacrosse games, and some concerts broke the place in before that.

Or JUST MAYBE, I have to go all the way back to the opening of Target Field to find such a grand opening. The Twins new stadium made the Minnesota Timberwolves so jealous that they let someone buy ad space on the outside wall of Target Center so everyone inside Target Field could at least see that.

But why am I even wasting time talking about the Twins or T-Wolves when the Minnesota Wild are on TV? With four inches of freshly wind-blown snow on the ground in the Cities, that definitely screams HOCKEY SEASON. Never mind that the NHL will go on until mid-June, because the Wild will be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention long before the 10,000 Lakes even thinks about starting to thaw.

And then there was Marian Hossa with the Blackhawks, who was FINALLY going to get that 50+ goal season. At least that was what the majority said in a recent fan poll on Comcast during a Hawks game last week, way back when he was on pace for 80…

Stress the words ‘WAS’ on pace. Hossa is now on the shelf for ‘a few weeks’ with his annual ‘upper body injury’, and Marian is the anti-Favre as far as injuries go. Tyler Juranovich with more details of Hossa’s injury in his next ‘Hawks Week in Review’.

And I haven’t even gotten to college football, where the BCS will still somehow find two teams to rank ahead of Boise State by season’s end, or the riveting Chase for the NASCAR Cup which heads to Talladega this weekend with the promise of 200 MPH restrictor-plate racing and a 23-car crash that everyone somehow manages to walk away from.

And then Jerod tells me there’s some TV show called Modern Family and something on another channel called The Office.

Somewhere, beneath all of this, a pitching duel between C.J. Wilson and Matt Cain rages on (at least for a few innings). But AJ Kaufman notes that sports talk radio instead focuses on football, and he’s right. Steven Jackson and his ‘game-time decision’ probably will out-trump the anticipation of World Series Game 4 in Arlington by Sunday morning.

But as Colin Cowherd noted earlier this year during the World Cup, explaining the once-every-four-years question of why Americans aren’t into soccer – talking about ANYTHING besides football (or maybe Lebron hype and March Madness) on sportstalk radio, is a ratings killer. And if a sports shock jock insists on giving anything beyond passing thoughts on MLB over the anticipation of NFL training camp, then the station fires that personality and replaces him with someone who WILL rant football.

And if a caller comes on (no doubt after faking out the call-screener) and insists on asking about the Atlanta Braves chances in the NL East, s/he is quickly shoved aside for the next caller who wants to talk about the heated recruiting battles between SEC football powerhouses.

Also, what does not help is that many times a World Series between teams that hardly know each other becomes anti-climatic, especially after two League Championship Series (Phillies/Giants, Yankees/Rangers) that were quite compelling.

Still, it’s great that sports shock jocks and even ESPN are quickly becoming old hat in the blog/Twitter/Facebook era. One can choose the content he/she is interested in, and join in on the conversation regarding the World Series, NHL, or God forbid…..MMA.

Meanwhile, I continue to give AJ-the-baseball-missionary his props, and continuing to knock on the door of football nation…

Even if the door keeps getting slammed on him.

This post is for one thing: predictions.

Vote in the poll below and use the comment section to explain your vote. (My pick under the poll.)

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

I think Texas has the clear offensive edge, but San Francisco has enough pitching to win a couple of games. With the chemistry and confidence that the Rangers have, plus how convincing they were in discarding the AL’s two best regular season teams, I can’t find a reason they won’t win this series.

The one Achilles’ heel for the Rangers is their bullpen. If the starters can go deep into games and hand the close ones off to Neftali Feliz (following the White Sox model from 2005), I think this is a quick series. If the bullpen has to get involved regularly, I think Giants’ chances improve greatly.

But I think Texas has the best pitcher (Cliff Lee), the best hitter (Josh Hamilton), and a catcher in Bengie Molina who will have insight on how to pitch to the Giants hitters. I haven’t heard that mentioned much yet, but it has to be at least a small factor.

Add it all up and I think the Rangers are the better all-around team. I’m going with the Rangers in 6.

And that’s just how baseball go.

**********

Oh wait, there is no established rivalry.

But with tickets selling at record pace with record prices, and die-hard fans quitting high-paying jobs to follow their teams, we do need some “themes,” no?

First off, a quick poll to see who everyone thinks will win. My prediction below.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

World Series Preview

I guess we can call it “the renewal” of the great football rivalry of the 90s between the cities of Dallas and San Francisco? Or if politics is your cup of tea, how about (former Rangers owner, 43rd president, and current Dallas resident who may “dare” to attend the games in SF) George W. Bush versus (SF congresswoman/speaker of the house — at least for a few more days) Nancy Pelosi? Or the “Bengie Molina series”? Or the two old codgers (Nolan Ryan and Ron Washington) leading their Texans against the trendy, elite folks in San Francisco? Choose your own, but give big congrats to these teams, who are apparently NOT really small-market, for dethroning the past two champs in convincing fashion.

The Rangers, 50 long years into their existence, arrive as the AL representative following their utter dominance of the defending champion Yankees, doubling New York 38-19 in the ALCS. Texas blew a lead during a game one meltdown, but won in convincing fashion in all four of their triumphs, outscoring NY 31-5 in those romps. Despite only needing stud starter Cliff Lee once in six games, they outplayed the Bronx Bombers in EVERY aspect of the game.

Now only the Washington/Montreal and Seattle franchises have yet to appear in the Fall Classic, as the Rangers exorcised some Yankee “demons” from 1996, 1998 and 1999, as well as decades of past futility. Texas had never even won a playoff series before this season; they’ve now won two, and look for a third — and the first professional sports title for the Dallas/Fort Worth area in over a decade — this coming week.

The Giants beat a Phillies team many thought was invincible in six games, holding on for dear life in Saturday night’s Game Six nail biter. Brian “Black Beard” Wilson made it dicey in the end, but MVP Cody Ross and SF really handled Philly confidently and well throughout the NLCS. Both series may have gone six, but neither, especially the ALCS, had a surprising end.

While others will somehow make excuses, one Yankee fan friend honestly noted “I’ll get over this loss pretty quickly. The silver lining is that the Rangers going to the Series is good for baseball.”

How true. But still, pompous Yankee announcer Michael Kay, when he wasn’t accusing Cliff Lee of cheating, was saying “this series is over” after New York’s lucky game one win. Joel Sherman of the NY Post called Yanks-Phils “inevitable” prior to the beginning of each series, while the “classy” Yankee fans were literally spitting on Cliff Lee.

I don’t recall any Philadelphia-based blowhard pontificating similarly, but some players were “shocked.” They apparently forgot that games are played on the field, not on talk radio or paper.

As it is, the two highest paid players in baseball (Alex Rodriguez of New York and Ryan Howard of Philadelphia) made the final outs of the season for their teams — both caught with bat on shoulder.

Rodriguez hit only .190 with two RBIs in 21 at-bats during the ALCS. For nine games in this post-season, he hit .219 with no homers and three RBIs in 32 at-bats. Surely New York City has forgotten his clutch hits in the 2009 playoffs already.

Howard, he of ZERO RBIs in nine postseason games, failed in much more dramatic fashion, then condescended to the media. Though his average was .300 in the playoffs, he fanned a startling 17 times in 33 at bats. This followed his 13 punchouts in 25 World Series at bats in 2009. (That’s 30 in 58 for those honest types, like me, keeping score of the futility our media ignores.)

But enough of the losers. As for fans of “small market” success — or just the better teams winning — the 2010 World Series is truly going to be a treat. For northeasterners who only follow their teams, it’ll be “boring.” In fact, many have told me they will not even bother to watch. Fox’s Ken Rosenthanl tried his best to find a middle ground in a column last night.

As to the actual series, while Colby Lewis pitching the Rangers’ first World Series home game is a great story, having Cliff Lee (postseason career numbers: 7-0, 1.26 ERA) going in Game One – therefore nearly guaranteed to pitch twice (finally once at home), and perhaps three times if necessary — is a nice benefit Texas did not have in the ALCS.

The Giants rotation is also set as they wish, due to the three day layoff before we get going. San Francisco has the best starting pitching in the majors, but Texas has arguably the best hitting, especially in the playoffs where they’ve tattooed top hurlers like David Price, CC Sabathia and others. This World Series is, as many have noted, a “study in contrasts.”

These two squads, who no one, including yours truly, would’ve forecasted to play the final series of the baseball season, did their best work on the road in the playoffs. That is the sign of a good team.

Despite going just 39-42 away from the Metroplex during the regular season, Texas is 5-1 so far in the postseason, including three triumphs in Tampa and two dominating wins versus the overhyped Yankees in the Bronx. San Francisco was 4-1 away from the Bay Area, including taking two of three from a Phillies team most thought would roll into the World Series due to home field and pitching. Turned out SF was better at home and on the mound. Go figure.

Considering I’m 3-3 picking series this October — correct on three of four in the Division Series, but foolishly missed both LCS forecasts since I went with my “brain” in lieu of my gut — take this prediction with a grain of salt: {The beauty of baseball, as I often reiterate, is that it’s such a complex game that NO ONE can predict it (unlike the NBA, for example). Even a more intricate analysis — like this one for example – would be fruitless.}

World Series Prediction

I’m taking the Giants in a seven game classic. I think home field, secured by the NL for the first time in nine seasons, finally matters. While road teams are a brutal 10-17 in the 2010 postseason, ballclubs with home field have won seven of the past ten World Series, and San Francisco uses it to win Games 6 and 7 at home, especially by avoiding Cliff Lee in those crucial tilts. And additionally, if it matters, the Giants have won 11 of the past 12 contests with Texas, all during Interleague Play.

But who knows? 2010 has been a winning year for baseball all around. The best rookie crop in my lifetime as a fan; some shocking success stories from teams picked low, sub .500, or out of the playoffs (San Diego, Cincinnati, San Francisco, Texas, Oakland, Minnesota, Toronto); and of course, the best pitching in nearly two decades, which is what makes the game better:

Six no hitters (two of them perfect games), including one in the playoffs, and 15 hurlers with sub 3 ERAs in the era of small ballparks. Then, get this: NONE of those 15 were on the Giants nor the Rangers!

And as of this morning, rumors are we could finally get a longer MLB postseason ala the three other major sports.

Lastly, if it concerns you, aside from maybe Thursday night, weather should not be a factor, as it’s been nearly perfect all October in playoff cities, much to the chagrin of the anti-baseball “they cannot play into November” cliché-laden media.

Enjoy it!

UPDATE:  BLS Five Keys for Texas and San Francisco in this World Series.

You can make a legitimate argument that at the rate the players are getting paid, they should be performing at a higher level, yielding better results. Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to be the case.

The Cubs have the third highest payroll ($146,859,000), only trailing the Red Sox and, of course, the Yankees. Since you’re paying these players the big money to win, you hope they can win a division title or, ideally, a World Series title.

It doesn’t look the World Series drought will end this year for the Cubs though. Their record stands at 15-20, and the future is not looking bright for the ‘lovable losers’.

Kosuke Fukudome, Alfonso Soriano, and Geovany Soto have been playing much better this year than last (Soriano’s outfield misadventures notwithstanding), but Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez have both struggled miserably, slowing down the production of Fukudome, Soriano, and Soto.

Ramirez is batting a dismal .159. Lee’s is .229. Very low numbers for players that are supposed to be the backbone of the offense, hitting in the #3 and #4 spots of the lineup. Don’t even mention Ramirez’s strike-out rate. It’s just terrible.

Ramirez and Lee aren’t the only problems with the Cubs.

The pitching, especially the bullpen, have been subpar. The Cubs don’t have legitimate closer. They don’t even have a seasoned relief pitcher.

How can you expect to win games when your bullpen is loaded with a bunch of no-name rookies? You can’t.

The Cubs can also boast that they have the most overpaid setup man to ever play baseball. Zambrano had one good year. It should be no surprise he hasn’t done anything after that. His command can get way out of hand, and once that happens Zambrano loses his temper, and after that all hope is gone.

Ted Lily, the most consistent Cub pitcher of the past few years, is having a rough start of his year, going 1-3 with a 4.88 ERA. Granted he is coming back form a major injury and surgery so fans can expect him to get back on track, but that can’t happen if the offense just isn’t producing.

The offense, over the past seven games, has mustered an average of two runs per game. No wonder the Cubs aren’t winning.

So what do the Cubs have that’s positive?

Besides the three batters that are hitting well, the Cubs might have found a gem in Starlin Castro. It is still very early to tell, and he did have a game where he committed four errors, but let’s not hold that against him for too long. The kid showed he can hit the ball. The Cubs need more of that.

The season is still young and no team, yet, has taken total control of the Central Division. The Cubs, over the next month, need to start producing some wins for them to get any credibility around the league as a team that can get into the postseason.

**********

* – Alfonso Soriano dropped fly ball photo credit: Bleacher Nation