Among the topics discussed on this week’s episode:

• The rest of Rob and Troy’s road trip
• Potential tournament teams from the ACC
• Slumping Kansas State
• The resurgence of Pitt and Notre Dame as well as UConn’s continued struggles
• Wisconsin’s place in the Big Ten
• Washington and Arkansas’ chances at making the Big Dance.
• We also looked at the BracketBusters matchups that were released on Monday and looked ahead to the Kansas-Missouri game this weekend.

How to subscribe to The Bottoms Line College Basketball Podcast:

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Interestingly enough though, finding teams for this week’s stock watch was tough because so many teams appear to be locked into win-one, lose-one mode.

Bottoms Line: Stock Up

Davidson

After beating Chattanooga on Thursday, the Wildcats improved to 9-0 in the SoCon, and they are starting to at least generate some at-large buzz.  They are 15-4 overall with a win over Kansas in Kansas City, and losses to Duke and Vanderbilt certainly won’t kill them.  Even losing at UMass isn’t terrible, but they also lost at Charlotte who is outside of the RPI Top 100.  In the meantime, Davidson is just inside the Top 50, although future league games won’t help their strength of schedule.

The Wildcats have five players scoring at least 9.1 points per game, led by De’Mon Brooks (14.9 ppg, 6.3 rpg) and Jake Cohen (14.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg), both of whom play less than 25 minutes per contest.

While they are sure to be favored in all of their remaining conference games, they are also slated to play at home as part of the BracketBusters.  Depending on the opponent, it could give them another shot at a profile-enhancing win.

Drexel

After getting off to a painfully slow start where they lost four of their first six games, the Dragons have now won 14 of their last 15 and are within a game of George Mason for the CAA lead.  As was the case last season, Drexel is solid defensively and ranks 26th in adjusted defensive efficiency.  They shut down the three-point line and clean the defensive glass as well as anyone, but they actually rank first in the league in offensive efficiency during conference play.

Bruiser Flint has three players scoring at least 11.8 points per game, including Frantz Massenat (12.2 ppg, 4.1 apg, 3.4 rpg) who hits 47.4 percent from deep and Samme Givens (11.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 53.1 FG%) who is a terrific rebounder at 6-foot-5.

The schedule lays out relatively well for the Dragons, as the season finale against Old Dominion is their only game left against the top teams in the league.

Notre Dame

Even without Tim Abromaitis, the Irish have managed to get off to a 5-3 start in Big East play with road wins at Louisville and Seton Hall and last weekend’s home upset of Syracuse.  Given a few of their losses, Notre Dame is definitely fighting an uphill battle for at-large consideration, but they are working their way into the conversation.

The Irish are essentially using a six-man rotation, and they are getting solid play from Jack Cooley, Eric Atkins, and Jerian Grant.  Cooley has 39 points and 30 rebounds over the last three games, including two double-doubles.  Atkins’ scoring has been inconsistent, but he’s hitting over 40 percent from beyond the arc and has a solid assist rate.  Grant’s assist rate is even better, and he’s averaging 13.3 points over the last 10 games.  All three have strong free throw rates as well, with each hitting at least 71.8 percent from the line.

Notre Dame has three tough games up next with road trips to Connecticut and West Virginia and a home date with Marquette.

Oregon

If you can make heads or tails of the Pac-12, you are definitely smarter than me.  However, I do know that the Ducks have played well of late, winning five of their last six games including victories over Stanford and Arizona.

The mid-December addition of Devoe Joseph has been key, as the Minnesota transfer is leading the team with 14.6 points per game and hitting 43.2 percent from deep.  Oregon is also getting solid play from E.J. Singler, and they seem to have rebounded from the surprising departure of freshman Jabari Brown.

If you look at Oregon’s profile, they don’t have a horrible loss, which this year is a rarity.  The issue is that they don’t have a ton of marquee wins either, and the conference provides more chances for bad losses than signature wins.  That means they need to keep winning at home against Oregon State on Sunday followed by a road trip to Utah and Colorado.

Wisconsin

Despite a 1-3 start in Big Ten play, it’s no surprise the Badgers have bounced back to win five straight, including a pair of road wins against Purdue and Illinois.  While their offense seems improved, they still rank in the middle of the pack for efficiency in conference play.  However, their defense still ranks among the best and can keep them close in virtually every game.  In fact, they have held all but three opponents to 1.00 points per possession or less.

Jordan Taylor has continued to struggle with his shot, and a number of other players have stepped up periodically.  That said, they need one or two other guys to become more consistent contributors from game to game.

Starting with Tuesday’s trip to Penn State, the Badgers play five of their next seven away from home, so it will be interesting to see if they can sustain their level of play during that stretch.

Bottoms Line: Stock Down

Iona

At one point, I considered the Gaels to be an at-large contender, but following losses to Hofstra, Manhattan (albeit on a crazy last-second shot), and Siena, that is no longer the case.  They are currently just outside of the RPI Top 50 but they also have no Top 50 wins with their best victories both coming in overtime against Saint Joseph’s and Denver.

Iona boasts an elite-level point guard in Scott Machado (13.1 ppg, 10.2 apg, 5.1 rpg) and a terrific big man in Michael Glover (19.1 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 67.0 FG%), so talent isn’t an issue.  That said, there was some concern about how well Arizona transfer Momo Jones would fit into the mix.  And while he is averaging 15.3 points, his long-range shooting hasn’t been great, and it’s likely no coincidence that he attempted 20 shots in two of their five losses.  Even so, the offense has strong efficiency numbers, but there is room for improvement on the defensive end.  Outside of limiting opponents to a low free throw rate, the Gaels rank outside of the Top 100 in the other three key factors on KenPom.

A BracketBusters matchups could give them another shot at a strong victory depending on who they play, but more than likely they will need to win the MAAC Tournament to go dancing.

Marshall

After beating Central Florida at home, the Herd stood at 4-0 in Conference USA, but they have since dropped three straight games.  Losses to West Virginia and Southern Miss are forgivable, but the same can’t be said about Wednesday’s home loss to UAB.

Marshall ranks in the top five nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, but their shooting, particularly from three-point range and the foul line, has been really poor.  Guards DeAndre Kane and Damier Pitts are both scoring in double figures, but neither guy makes over 42.9 percent from the field or better than 33.1 percent from deep.

Wins over Cincinnati, Iona, and Belmont definitely help their at-large case, but they need to perform well in remaining games against Memphis (who they play twice), Central Florida, and Southern Miss.  The Herd also needs to avoid losing to any of the lesser teams left on their schedule.

Northwestern

A home win over Michigan State had people thinking maybe this would be the year for the Wildcats.  They have since followed that up with two losses by a combined 43 points, so their status is once again tenuous at best.

Northwestern takes more than 42 percent of their shots from beyond the arc, and since they don’t get to the line much and don’t grab many offensive rebounds, they really can’t survive off shooting nights.  So since they hit just 13-of-40 (32.5%) of their three-pointers in the last two games, it’s not necessarily surprising that they got crushed.  The Wildcats aren’t strong defensively either, so their ability to succeed during times when they struggle offensively is limited.

Northwestern plays three of their next four games at home, so they can ill afford to perform poorly over that stretch before the schedule gets a bit tougher down the stretch.

Purdue

The Boilers have now dropped four of their last six games, and they are slowly sliding toward the bubble.  The team ranks eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency in Big Ten games, which is a departure from the ability they have shown on that end of the floor in recent years.  They have struggled to defend the three-point line but have also allowed opponents to shoot over 50 percent on two-pointers.

Offensively they have an extremely low turnover rate, but their shooting from the field and at the line ranks in the lower half of the league.  The Purdue offense is extremely reliant on Robbie Hummel and a banged up Lewis Jackson, neither of whom has been practicing fully.

The schedule doesn’t do them any favors with their next six contests featuring two games against Northwestern, home dates with Indiana and Michigan State, and road trips to Ohio State and Illinois.

Xavier

After starting out 4-1 in the Atlantic 10, it felt like the Musketeers were finally back on track, but following losses to Dayton and Saint Louis, some of the question marks about the team have resurfaced.  When looking at per possession stats, it’s very easy to tie Xavier’s success to their defensive effort.  In the eight games where they have allowed at least 1.02 points per possession, the Musketeers are 1-7.  In virtually every case, Xavier has allowed a lot of open looks and/or put their opponents on the line a lot.

Offensively, they have played a bit better of late, but they have to get more out of Kenny Frease.  The senior big man has just nine points over the last two games and has some pretty ugly efficiency numbers for the season.  Even if it’s not Frease, someone needs to assert themselves as a consistent contributor outside of Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons.

The Musketeers have three straight road games starting on Saturday, and they have games remaining against Temple, Dayton, and St. Louis as well.  They aren’t quite on the bubble yet, but a few more losses could change that in a hurry.

**********

Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

As always, Jerod, Ryan, and Andy will be here with another episode of The Assembly Call as soon as the game ends with instant analysis and fan reaction.

IU-Wisconsin Gameday Info

• Date: Thursday, January 26th
• Time: 9:00 ET, 8:00 CT
• TV: ESPN2
• Announcers: Dave O’Brien and Stephen Bardo
• Point Spread: Wisconsin by 6.5
• Over-Under: 125
• KenPom Prediction: Wisconsin 66-58 with 78% chance of winning
• Peegs: IU Gameday
• Inside the Hall: What to Expect – Wisconsin
• IU-Penn State live tweet coverage: @AssemblyCall
• Assembly Call IU Postgame Show: http://assemblycall.com/live

IU-Wisconsin Preview

After starting out just 1-3 in the Big Ten, the Badgers have bounced back to win four straight heading into Thursday’s game.  On Sunday, Wisconsin picked up their third road victory in league play, winning at Illinois behind 19 points, nine rebounds, and five assists from Jordan Taylor.  Big man Jared Berggren chipped in 18 points, and the Badgers shot better than 40 percent from beyond the arc.

This season’s Wisconsin offense is reliant on a couple things: hitting three-pointers and limiting turnovers.  The Badgers take nearly 40 percent of their field goal attempts from long range (and nearly 42 percent in league play), where they are hitting 37.5 percent for the season.  While Taylor has struggled with his outside shot, guys like Berggren (37.0%), Mike Bruesewitz (38.0%), Ben Brust (39.0%), and Josh Gasser (52.0%) have all had big games throughout the season.  Limiting open looks will be critical for the Hoosiers, who have struggled defensively in conference play.

Led by Taylor, the Badgers have the second-lowest turnover rate in the country with a miniscule 15.2 percent mark, so don’t expect the Hoosiers to force a lot of turnovers.  They will also need to improve their defense on ball screens, which is an area that has plagued them recently and something that Taylor and Wisconsin use frequently.

Wisconsin has a relatively low offensive rebounding percentage, so they don’t seem likely to take advantage of IU’s weakness on the defensive glass.  They also have one of the lowest free throw rates in the country, which is not unexpected for a team that shoots so many three-pointers.

Taylor’s scoring and shooting percentages are down, but keep in mind that he lit up the Hoosiers for 67 points in two games last season.  Still, he leads the team with 14.1 points per game to go with 4.4 assists and 4.2 rebounds, and he’s been scoring more of late with 53 points in the last three games.  Five other Badgers average at least 6.5 points, but they have struggled with consistent production throughout the year.

Defensively the Badgers are as impressive as ever and allow just 0.83 points per possession for the year.  In fact, they have allowed just three teams to score over 1.00 ppp this season.  Wisconsin is first in the nation in defensive effective field goal percentage, and they rank 17th in both defensive rebounding percentage and opponents’ free throw rate.  They don’t force many turnovers, but nothing will come easy for Indiana on the offensive end.

The Hoosiers are coming off of a much-needed win over Penn State on Sunday where they blitzed the Nittany Lions for 46 points in the second half and won by 19.  Cody Zeller led the way for IU with 18 points, and he now has 75 points over the last four games.  As always, the Hoosiers need to get him involved early and often.

Indiana also got 18 bench points in the win over Penn State, and the team will need guys like Matt Roth and Will Sheehey to come in and make shots against the stingy Wisconsin defense.  Jordan Hulls posted 14 points against the Nittany Lions, and he enjoyed some success against Wisconsin last season with 31 points in the teams’ two matchups.

The game will also be a battle of tempos, as the Badgers play at one of the slowest paces in the country, while Indiana would like to get out and push the pace.  They will certainly find it challenging to score in the half court against the Badgers, but if they can find ways to involve Zeller and create open threes, they should be able to score enough points to win.

Once again, it will come down to defense for IU.  The Badgers aren’t particularly explosive offensively, but the Hoosiers have made lesser teams look like offensive forces in conference play.  Their defense on ball screens and three-pointers will go a long way toward deciding the outcome of the game.

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Listen to Andy Thursday on The Assembly Call. Follow him on Twitter at @AndyBottoms.

I’ll be releasing my own projections starting next week, but for now I thought it would be worthwhile to look at how Big Ten teams are shaping up with as many as nine of them in some of these mock brackets.

For the purposes of this exercise, I have narrowed down the projections to Andy Glockner of SI.com, Shawn Siegel of College Hoops Net, and Dave Ommen of Bracketville.  The latter two names both rank atop the bracket project matrix which has tracked success over the last few years, and Glockner is a great follow on Twitter and does a tremendous job of sharing his thought process as he brackets the teams each Sunday night.

One other thing to keep in mind is that while the committee uses RPI in the selection and seeding process, it can be a bit misleading at this point of the season.  You’ll currently find a number of teams from outside of the six major conferences with high RPI’s, fueled largely by their strength of schedule numbers.  Once they start playing teams in their own leagues, and once major conference teams start challenging themselves in conference play as well, things should start to shift.

In order of average seed, here are the nine Big Ten teams in the discussion:

Ohio State (Glockner/Ommen: 1, Siegel: 2)

Kentucky and Syracuse were unanimous top seeds, while Ohio State and North Carolina showed up on two of the three projections.

Siegel opted for Baylor over the Buckeyes, which is an argument you can certainly make.  The Bears have more wins against the RPI Top 100 and have a number of good wins against teams like Mississippi State, San Diego State, Saint Mary’s, and at BYU.  However, the Buckeyes have knocked off Duke and Florida, so their “best” wins are better.

Still, they have two losses, although neither can be considered “bad” since one game at Kansas without Jared Sullinger and the other came in a close game on the road against Indiana, who is 13th in the RPI.

Barring a collapse, it’s hard seeing the Buckeyes getting anything lower than a two seed come March.

Indiana (Glockner/Siegel/Ommen: 3)

With wins over Kentucky and Ohio State, you could argue that no team has two better wins than the Hoosiers.  If you want to nitpick though, seven of their 13 wins have come against teams outside of the RPI Top 200, so strength of schedule is one factor keeping them from getting a higher seed.

Their SoS should climb as they move through Big Ten play, and with UConn losing to Seton Hall, the opportunity to move up is certainly there.  Indiana’s lone loss came at Michigan State, so there’s no shame in that.

Michigan State (Glockner/Siegel/Ommen: 3)

These projections came out prior to Sparty’s road win over Wisconsin, so Tom Izzo’s squad has a good chance to improve their seed when the next set of projections come out.  Both of their losses came against teams in the RPI Top 15, one of which was on a aircraft carrier so who knows how much stock you can put in that.

MSU has now won 14 straight games and is playing as well as anyone in the nation’s top conference.  The only knock on them is that just two of their wins (Indiana, at Gonzaga) are against the RPI Top 50.  If they keep playing the way they are, a two-seed is definitely realistic.

Wisconsin (Glockner/Siegel: 5, Ommen: 6)

The Badgers are an interesting case.  They rank 60th in the RPI and are just 1-3 against the Top 50 and 5-4 against the Top 150.  Outside of an 11-point home win over UNLV, there really isn’t much else on their profile in terms of a marquee win.  Their next two games are on the road against Michigan and Purdue, so a split there would help stop their seeding freefall.

Michigan (Siegel: 4, Glockner/Ommen: 6)

The Wolverines are one of the teams I can’t quite figure out yet.  Their two best wins are against Memphis in Maui and at home against Minnesota, and at this point neither of those teams is safely in the field.  They currently sit at 31st in the RPI with seven of their 12 victories against teams outside of the Top 150.

Thursday’s game at Indiana is a chance to prove themselves, as is Sunday’s home date with Wisconsin.  At this point, I lean more toward Glockner and Ommen’s seed for Michigan.

Purdue (Siegel/Ommen: 7, Glockner: 10)

Purdue’s road win at Iowa looked better after the Hawkeyes knocked off Wisconsin, and I think their win over Miami (FL) will look better by the end of the year.  For now, the loss to Butler hurts, but that may change as well.

The Boilers also have wins over Iona, Temple, and Illinois, all of which are in the Top 32 of the RPI.  That said, they are 4-3 against the Top 100 with six of their 12 wins over sub-150 teams.  For seeding purposes, their losses to Alabama and Xavier may become important, because right now those teams are right around the same seed range.

Illinois (Siegel/Ommen: 8, Glockner: 9)

Since winning their first 10 games, the Illini have dropped three of five with their two wins over that span coming by four over Cornell and in double overtime against Minnesota.  A home win against Gonzaga is nice, but otherwise there isn’t much meat on their resume.  They are 3-3 against the RPI Top 100, but they also don’t really have a bad loss.  T

he schedule doesn’t do them any favors with just one game against Iowa and Penn State in Big Ten play.  A few more losses could send Illinois careening toward the bubble.

Minnesota (Glockner: 11, Siegel/Ommen: 12)

The Gophers have performed better than most people expected following the loss of Trevor Mbakwe, but they are off to a 0-2 start in Big Ten play.  They are just 1-3 against the RPI Top 50, but they are 5-0 against teams ranked 51-100 (Bucknell, Fairfield, Indiana State, North Dakota State, and South Dakota State).

I’m not sure how realistic it is for many of those teams to remain in that range, which means the Gophers need to start picking up some quality wins to remain in the field.

Northwestern (Siegel/Ommen: 13, Glockner: First Four Out)

The good news is that the wins against LSU and Seton Hall look better now than they did earlier this year.  The bad news is they have been crushed by a combined 61 points in games against Baylor and Ohio State.  Eight of their 11 wins have come against teams outside of the RPI Top 150, which leaves them just 3-3 against everybody else.

Their next six games are critical with home games against Illinois, Michigan State, and Purdue and road trips to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

 **********

Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

Topics in this week’s episode include:

• Michigan State’s win over Wisconsin
• Seton Hall’s win over UConn
• A look at teams like Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Louisville, Marquette, Pitt, LSU, Miami, Kansas State and more.
• Plus we spend time talking about Rob and Troy’s upcoming road trip of college games.

Click play on the player below to listen:

How to subscribe to The Bottoms Line College Basketball Podcast:

• Subscribe to the the Midwest Sports Fans Podcast on iTunes
• Join the The Bottoms Line College Basketball Email Digest to get an email whenever a new post or podcast is posted
• Follow the The Bottoms Line on Twitter or via RSS to get updates as soon as new articles and podcasts are posted.
• Download this podcast in mp3 format for later: Right-click this link, then hit “save link as”
• For all MSF podcast subscriptions options, click here.

The BCS bowl games are coming up after the New Year’s Day NFL games Sunday, with the Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl Monday, the Sugar Bowl on Tuesday, the Orange Bowl and on Wednesday and then the BCS National Championship Game the following Monday, January 9th.

Here is a quick preview of the BCS bowl games with picks and current point spreads.

Keep in mind the following:

• All games listed are EST
• Point spreads are of Sunday, January 1st. For updated point spreads and expert advice, here you go: BCS Bowls Odds and Lines

BCS Bowl Games Bettor’s Guide

Point Spreads – Free Picks ATS – Over-Under Odds

TV Schedule – Lock Pick

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Rose Bowl: #10 Wisconsin Badgers vs. #5 Oregon Ducks

• Wisconsin-Oregon Date: Monday, January 2nd at 5:00 PM on ESPN
• Wisconsin-Oregon Point Spread: Ducks -6
• Wisconsin-Oregon Over-Under Odds: 71.5
• Wisconsin-Oregon Spread Pick: Expect a high scoring shootout in what could be the best game of the BCS bowls, as both teams can light up the scoreboard in a hurry. The Badgers rely on the dual passing/rushing threat of QB Russell Wilson  (2,879 yds, 31 TDs, 4 INTs ) and Heisman finalist Montee Ball (1,759 yds, 32TDs).  The Ducks counter with QB Darron Thomas (2,493 yds, 30 TDs, 6 INTs) and Ducks all-time rushing leader LaMichael James (1,646 yds, 17 TDs). Oregon looks to improve on their all-time bowl record of 9-15 and having lost bowl games the past 2 seasons. Wisconsin looks to avenge their Rose Bowl loss last year vs. TCU. Look for the Ducks speed to eventually be too much for the Badgers defense, winning 42-31.
• Pick: Ducks -6

Fiesta Bowl: #4 Stanford Cardinal vs. #3 Oklahoma State Cowboys 

• Stanford-Oklahoma State Date: Monday, January 2nd at 8:30 PM on ESPN
• Stanford-Oklahoma State Point Spread: Cowboys -4
• Stanford-Oklahoma State Over-Under Odds: 73.5
• Stanford-Oklahoma State Spread Pick: Only a devastating 37-31 double overtime loss at Iowa State prevented Oklahoma St. from playing in the BCS Championship Game against LSU. The Cowboys finished their regular season by crushing Oklahoma 44-10. Led by outstanding WR Justin Blackmon (113 rec, 1,336 yds, 15 TDs) and 28-year-old QB Brandon Weeden ( 4,328 yds, 34 TDs), the #3 ranked team in the nation looks to prove it belonged in the BCS title game. Stanford, led by consensus #1 pick in the NFL draft Andrew Luck ( 3,170 yds, 35 TDs) and RB Stepfan Taylor (1,153 yds, 8 TDs), will need to apply the same defensive  pressure on Weeden that has earned them the #6 national ranking with 38 sacks. Look for the Oklahoma St. offense to ultimately take the game over and pull away from Stanford, 45-35.
•  Pick: Cowboys -4  

Sugar Bowl: #13 Michigan vs. #11 Virginia Tech

• Michigan-Virginia Tech Date: Tuesday, January 3rd at 8:30 PM on ESPN
• Michigan-Virginia Tech Point Spread: Wolverines -3
• Michigan-Virginia Tech Over-Under Odds: 50.5
• Michigan-Virginia Tech Spread Pick: Two solid defenses (Virginia Tech-13th nationally, Michigan-18th) and rushing offenses collide in The Superdome in what looks to be a close game. The Wolverines’ star quarterback Denard Robinson (2,056 yds, 18 TDs passing-1,163 yds, 16 TDs rushing) and running back Fitzgerald Toussaint (1,011 yds, 9 TDs) lead a bruising, clock controlling rushing offense. The Hokies are led by ACC player of the year David Wilson (1,627 yds, 9 TDs) and sophomore QB Logan Thomas (2,799 yds, 19 TDs).  Look for the Hokies to rebound from their embarrassing 38-10 loss to Clemson in the ACC title game. Special teams play and a defense keyed on Michigan’s rushing game will pace the Hokies to a 27-19 win.
• Pick: Hokies +3

Orange Bowl: #23 West Virginia vs. #15 Clemson

• West Virginia-Clemson Date: Wednesday, January 4th at 8:30 on ESPN
• West Virginia-Clemson Point Spread: Tigers -3
• West Virginia-Clemson Over-Under Odds: 61.5
• West Virginia-Clemson Spread Pick: In what may be the least attractive BCS bowl game with slow ticket sales in South Florida, the on-field game may turn out to be better than imagined, with two potent offenses both averaging over 33 points per game and 440 yards of offense. West Virginia has the 7th rated passing offense and a 17th rated total offense, led by QB Geno Smith (3,978 yds, 25 TDs, 7 INTs) and WR Stedman Bailey (1,197 yds, 11 TDs). Clemson counters with QB Tajh Boyd (3,578 yds, 31 TDs), RB Andre Ellington (1,062 yds, 10 TDs) and Freshman WR Sammy Watkins (1153 yds, 11 TDs). With more offensive weapons, Clemson eventually pulls away from West Virginia, winning 35-24.
• Pick: Tigers -3

BCS National Championship: #2 Alabama vs. #1 LSU

• Alabama-LSU Date: Monday, January 9th at 8:30 on ESPN
• Alabama-LSU Point Spread: Crimson Tide -1
• Alabama-LSU Over-Under Odds: 40.5
• Alabama-LSU Spread Pick: The rematch between these 2 top defensive squads for the BCS title in New Orleans. No idea why top-ranked LSU is an underdog after winning in OT at Alabama and now playing in what will be a decided home field advantage in The Superdome. Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide ranks first in the country at yards allowed per game (191.3) with LSU #2 allowing 252.1 yards/game. Offensively, LSU ranks #13 in points scored with 38.5 and Alabama ranks #16 with 36 points a game. Crimson Tide is led by Doak Walker award winner Trent Richardson (1,583 yds, 20 TDs) and QB A.J. McCarron (2,400 yds, 16 TDs). Tigers are sparked by dual QBs Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee, who combined for 20 TDs and nearly 2,000 yards and RBs Michael Ford (755 yds, 7 TDs) and Spender Ware (700 yds, 8 TDs). Points will be at a premium for this game, which is where LSU Heisman finalist Tyrann Mathieu comes in to play with his knack making big plays as a punt returner. Look for the Tiger’s to claim the national title in convincing fashion, pulling away from the Crimson Tide in the 2nd half 27-10.
• Pick: Tigers +1

Lock Pick: LSU +1

Cotton Bowl Bonus Lock Pick: Friday, January 6th 8:00 PM on Fox. Arkansas -8 vs. Kansas State. No way Wildcats can hang with Razorbacks in this one. Arkansas 44 Kansas State 23.

Enjoy your 2012 BCS Bowl Games!

For the first time, both leagues have the same number of teams, so there are 12 games on this year’s slate.  (In the event of a 6-6 tie, the Big Ten will retain the Commissioner’s Cup in case you were wondering.  Spoiler alert: That shouldn’t be an issue.)

Here’s a look at the schedule for the two-day event.  I also wrote a preview for Run The Floor, which focuses more on advanced metrics and is a bit snarkier since the Managing Editor there is an ACC guy.

ACC/Big Ten Challenge Games on Tuesday, Nov 29th

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#15 Michigan at Virginia – 7:00 EST (ESPN2)

Expect this one to be played at a painfully slow pace, but the tip time is early enough that it shouldn’t put you to sleep. Virginia is among the most efficient teams on the defense end, while Michigan is just outside the Top 25 in offensive efficiency, so something has to give.

The Wolverines have played better competition thanks to their time in Maui, while the Cavaliers recently returned from the Paradise Jam where they rebounded to win two games after a disappointing loss to TCU in the tournament opener.  UVA big man Mike Scott could give Michigan some trouble inside, but both teams are largely perimeter-oriented in terms of their personnel.

Tim Hardaway Jr. will be the best player on the floor, but I also like the contributions Michigan is getting from veterans Zach Novak and Stu Douglass as well as freshman point guard Trey Burke.  Still, the Wolverines have struggled to defend the three-point shot, and Virginia excelled from long range last season.

The other red flag has been Michigan’s propensity to put their opponents on the free throw line, and their 13th-ranked free throw rate suggests the Cavaliers will be able to take advantage of that deficiency.  I expect a close game, with Virginia having the slight edge based on concerns about Michigan’s defense.

• Prediction: Virginia

Northwestern at Georgia Tech – 7:15 EST (ESPNU)

Both of these teams participated in the Charleston Classic with Northwestern winning the tournament and the Jackets finishing 1-2.  It’s worth noting they played one of those games without leading scorer Glen Rice Jr., who was wrapping up a three-game suspension.  At 17.7 points per game, Rice leads five Georgia Tech players averaging over 8.0 points, but they aren’t getting much outside of those five guys.

Defense has been the Yellow Jackets’ calling card so far, but they will be tested by the duo of John Shurna and Drew Crawford, who have combined to score better than 40 points per game so far.  Keep an eye on how freshman point guard Dave Sobolewski handles Georgia Tech’s defense, as that will go a long way toward deciding the outcome.

The other area to monitor is Northwestern’s ability to limit second shots.  The Jackets have posted a strong offensive rebounding percentage and could give the Wildcats trouble on the glass.

• Prediction: Northwestern

Illinois at Maryland – 7:30 EST (ESPN)

For a number of reasons, the Terps are forced to play mostly young and/or inexperienced players, which has them off to a 3-2 start.  They lost two of their three games in Puerto Rico, to Alabama by 20 and to Iona by 26.

Maryland Sophomore Terrell Stoglin is emerging as a star with 20.2 points per game.  His shooting percentages have dropped across the board, but he’s the clear focal point of the offense with nearly twice as many field goal attempts as any of his teammates.  Maryland’s efficiency numbers have been absolutely brutal on both ends of the floor, leaving little reason for optimism there.

The Illini are also young, so neither team has a clear advantage in that regard.  Junior guard D.J. Richardson is off to a good start with 13.5 points per game to go with 40.5 percent shooting from beyond the arc.  Inside, soph big man Meyers Leonard is posting 12.3 points, 6.8 boards, and an impressive 3.2 blocks per game.  In a game with two relatively inexperienced teams, Illinois’ defense and inside play should be the difference.

• Prediction: Illinois

Miami (FL) at Purdue – 9:00 EST (ESPN2)

Had injuries not ravaged the Miami frontcourt, this would be a tougher matchup for Purdue given the composition of their team.

As it stands, the Canes are 4-1 while relying heavily on their talented backcourt of Malcolm Grant and Durand Scott, who combine to average 30.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 5.2 assists.  Miami is shooting just 40 percent from the field, which is not a good sign against a Purdue defense ranked in the Top 15 for defensive efficiency.

The Boilers picked up solid wins over Iona and Temple in Puerto Rico before falling to Alabama in the championship, but the best news is that Robbie Hummel looks healthy after missing last season with a knee injury.  He is pacing the team with 19.3 points per game while hitting 46.7 percent from deep.  Sharpshooter Ryne Smith has been red hot for most of the season, and Lewis Jackson has been terrific at the point.

Look for Kelsey Barlow to lock down either Grant or Scott and for the Boilers to emerge victorious.

• Prediction: Purdue

Clemson at Iowa – 9:15 EST (ESPNU)

I won’t blame you if you don’t go out of your way to watch this one.  Clemson has losses to College of Charleston and Coastal Carolina, while Iowa just lost at home by 15 to Campbell.

The Tigers have four players averaging at least 9.8 points, led by guard Andre Young with 14.4 points per contest.  Clemson has been solid defensively, but they haven’t been impressive on offense, particularly in terms of getting to the free throw line.  Of course, they’re only making 64.5 percent once they get there, so maybe it’s by design.

Meanwhile, Iowa has eight players scoring at least 7.2 points per game, and as a team they are hitting over 39 percent from deep.  Like Clemson, they have struggled to get to the stripe, but they have really struggled defensively, and their opponents have routinely shot a high percentage from the field.

• Prediction: Clemson

#4 Duke at #2 Ohio State – 9:30 EST (ESPN)

This is easily the marquee matchup of the event’s first day.

The Blue Devils should have plenty of confidence coming off of their win in Maui.  Duke is hitting a ridiculous 45.9 percent from beyond the arc so far, led by Seth Curry at 57.1 percent and Andre Dawkins at 44.7.  They are two of the five Blue Devils scoring in double figures, but there hasn’t been a ton of production from others with the notable exception of Tyler Thornton’s two huge three-pointers to seal the win over Kansas.  Duke has been adept at getting to the free throw line, and they have been better than I expected on defense.

As for the Buckeyes, they have been outstanding on both ends of the floor, as evidenced by Pomeroy Ratings in the Top Five for both offensive and defensive efficiency. Jared Sullinger has picked up right where he left off with 18.8 points and 10.7 rebounds along with 63.3 percent shooting from the field.

Like most teams in college basketball, Duke will have a hard time containing him on the inside.  William Buford complements Sullinger outside where he’s averaging 17.7 points and hitting 50 percent from deep.  Throw in point guard Aaron Craft, who is one of my favorites guys to watch, and you have a really intriguing backcourt matchup between these two squads.

Ohio State has struggled with its long-range shooting, but its defense should be enough to disrupt Duke on offense.

• Prediction: Ohio State

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ACC/Big Ten Challenge Games on Wednesday, Nov 30th

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Indiana at North Carolina State – 7:15 EST (ESPN2)

While many predicted a rebuilding year for Mark Gottfried and the Wolfpack, they have played fairly well so far and came back from a healthy second half deficit to knock off Texas on a neutral floor.  After serving a three-game suspension to start the season, C.J. Leslie has been impressive with 16.7 points, 5.7 boards, 2.3 steals, and 2.3 blocks while hitting 63.0 percent from the field.  He leads six players scoring in double figures, including point guard Lorenzo Brown who is dishing out 6.5 assists per game as well.  While N.C. State has done a nice job taking care of the ball, they have struggled to hit and defend shots from beyond the arc.

The Hoosiers are off to their best start in years, thanks in large part to their hot shooting both inside and outside the arc.  Seven players are averaging at least 7.0 points, led by freshman phenom Cody Zeller with 14.8 points and 7.7 rebounds per contest. The biggest difference for IU has come on the defensive end where they have seen a sharp increase in their turnover rate.  They have also done a much better of job of not putting opponents on the line while getting there with much more regularity on offense.

This will be another solid road test for the Hoosiers but one they seem poised to pass based on their defense and outside shooting.

• Prediction: Indiana

Penn State at Boston College – 7:15 EST (ESPNU)

Unless you attended one of these schools or both of the other games are at commercial breaks, you probably aren’t tuning in for this one.

Both teams lost virtually everyone from last season’s rosters and are in full blown rebuilding mode this year.  Both teams have also been woefully inefficient offensively, with Boston College being the worse of the two on the defensive end.

With 19.1 points per game, Penn State guard Tim Frazier is the only Nittany Lion scoring in double figures, and he’s also pacing the team with 7.1 assists.  Freshman Patrick Heckmann leads BC with 13.8 points per game, but tons of questions remain on the roster, particularly once you get past their top four scorers.

Penn State’s offensive rebounding could be the difference in this one, but in the end, I simply can’t write any more about this game.

• Prediction: Penn State

Florida State at Michigan State – 7:30 EST (ESPN)

Like the previous matchup, these two teams are pretty similar.  The difference is that they both aren’t terrible, at least not on both ends of the floor.  These squads are built around defense and rebounding, while both struggle to put points on the board.

Seven Noles are scoring at least 7.0 points per game, but the team is shooting just 31.7 percent from beyond the arc.  The Spartans are actually worse, hitting just 23.8 percent of their triples.  They have also been unable to find a true point guard, which has led to an ugly turnover rate.  Draymond Green is averaging a double-double with 12.7 points and 11.2 rebounds, but his shooting has been poor and he’s trying to do too much on offense.

Aside from the battle on the glass, keep an eye on Florida State’s ability to get to the free throw line.  The Noles have a decent free throw rate, while Michigan State is putting opponents on the line with regularity.  Ultimately it’s hard to see Sparty solving their shooting woes against a team ranked 10th in effective field goal percentage defense.

I’m pretty sure it’s ok to plagiarize yourself, so as I said in my Run The Floor piece: In short, these two teams are mirror images of one another, which is ironic since watching either one play offense will make you want to break a mirror and start cutting yourself with the shattered pieces.  This one is a toss-up, so give me the home team!

• Prediction: Michigan State

Virginia Tech at Minnesota – 9:15 EST (ESPN2)

The Hokies gave Syracuse a scare in the NIT semi-finals before squeaking out a two-point win over Oklahoma State in the consolation game.  Their strength lies in the backcourt with Erick Green and Dorenzo Hudson leading the way with over 29 points per game between them.  Freshman wing Dorian Finney-Smith has impressed early in his career and is averaging 10.3 rebounds through six games.  On offense, the Hokies have struggled with turnovers but have done a nice job of getting to the stripe.

For Minnesota, the recent loss of forward Trevor Mbakwe is devastating in every possible way, as everything they did well on offense resulted from his relentlessness inside.  The Gophers are still searching for answers in the backcourt, but juco transfer Julian Welch played well in the Old Spice Classic.

Since the Hokies have struggled to force turnovers, it seems unlikely they will be able to take advantage of Minnesota’s biggest weakness, and without Mbakwe the Gophers will struggle to exploit Va Tech’s weakness on the offensive glass.  Instead, they will end up shooting more from the perimeter, where the Hokies are at their best on defense.

• Prediction: Virginia Tech

Wake Forest at Nebraska – 9:15 EST (ESPNU)

On the surface, this would appear to be another matchup of two teams picked to finish in the bottom of each league.

OK, that’s actually what it is, but I do think Nebraska could surprise a few teams in the Big Ten.  They have a pair of talented guards in Bo Spencer and Dylan Talley, who are averaging a combined 28.4 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 7.2 assists, to go with Jorge Brian Diaz inside.  Outside of solid shooting, their offensive efficiency numbers aren’t impressive, as they struggle to get to the line or grab offensive boards.  The Huskers also don’t force many turnovers, but otherwise they’ve been solid defensively.

The Demon Deacons are coming off of a 8-24 season and just went 1-2 in the Old Spice Classic.  C.J. Harris and Travis McKie each score better than 19 points per game and pace the offense.  Outside of the 6-foot-7 McKie, Wake isn’t getting much from its frontcourt.  They are doing a woeful job on the offensive glass and an equally poor job on the defensive boards, while their opponents are routinely shooting a high percentage from the field.

Look for the Huskers to take advantage of Wake’s poor defense to pick up the victory.

• Prediction: Nebraska

#7 Wisconsin at #5 North Carolina – 9:30 (ESPN)

This will be an interesting contrast in styles to close things out. The Badgers play at one of the slower paces in all of college hoops, while North Carolina wants to get up and down the floor.

Wisconsin is the top team in terms of limiting opponents’ effective field goal percentage and offensive rebounding, while the Heels have struggled to defend the three-point shot over their last few games.  The Badgers have Jordan Taylor (11.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 5.8 apg) and a bunch of guys no one has heard of, while UNC’s roster is full of McDonald’s All-Americans and lottery picks, led by Harrison Barnes (17.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg), John Henson (15.8 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 3.0 bpg), and Tyler Zeller (13.5 ppg, 7.2 rpg).

After being outplayed by UNLV on Saturday night, I will be interested to see how North Carolina responds.  They forced shots and got dominated on the glass by the Rebels, and they were unable to prevent penetration on defense, which led to a number of kick-outs for three-pointers.  That could be bad news against a Wisconsin team hitting better than 47 percent from downtown.

The Badgers were tested by BYU on Saturday before going on a second half run to win by 17 points, but going into the Dean Dome and winning is a pretty tall order.  Their defense will keep it close, but they will need big shooting days from Ben Brust and Josh Gasser to spring the upset. Given UNC’s defense so far, that isn’t as far-fetched as it might seem.

• Prediction: North Carolina

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

Albert Pujols did something with a stick of wood that no other man in the history of baseball has done. Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints put on one of the most impressive offensive clinics in the history of football. Aaron Rodgers was so spectacular yet again that his supreme excellence is starting to be taken for granted. I could go on and on.

These were individual feats though, which occurred in games that ended predictably. Two games however, did not end predictably, and in fact ended in the most unlikely ways possible. In this post, I’ll quickly break down each and we’ll vote to see which incredible sports feat was more unlikely.

Michigan State’s Hail Mary Win over Wisconsin

Hail Mary victories are among the most unlikely outcomes in sports. First off, specific circumstances must be in place: a team must be have the ball with 6 or fewer seconds, be down by 7 points or less, and have the ball between the 40s. Then secondly, they must complete a pass into a crowded end zone that everyone knows is coming when all the defense has to do is bat the ball down.

In college football history, the two most famous Hail Mary victories were tossed by Doug Flutie and Kordell Stewart. Now it’s time to add another name to that list: Kirk Cousins.

Here is the play heard ’round the world this past Saturday night:

The amount of unlikely elements that coalesced to make this play possible are stunning.

• The specific set of circumstances above.
• Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema calling timeout during Michigan State’s drive. He’d hoped to stop the Spartans and get the ball back, but his decision ended up giving them the time they needed to complete the Hail Mary.
• Jared Abbrederis, a superb athlete, badly mistiming his jump, thus allowing the ball to get into the end zone.
• The ball ricocheting perfectly out of the end zone right into the hands of Keith Nichol.
• Nichol, despite extreme effort from the Wisconsin defenders, being able to ever-so-slightly break the plane of the goalline with the ball.
• The call on the field was initially that he did not catch the ball, meaning that clear evidence would have to be seen to overturn the call. (Note: thanks to the commenter who pointed out my initial brain fart in getting this in reverse.)
• Replay officials finding clear evidence to overturn. Call stands, Michigan State wins.

Any way you slice it, this was one of the most unlikely and exciting finishes to a college football game in some time, especially since Michigan State had to beat the 6th ranked team in the country, which had looked like a juggernaut coming into this game. Because of the amazing final play and the stakes, this will surely go down as one of the defining plays in college football this season.

But was it the most unlikely sport feat of the weekend? Tim Tebow and the Broncos might have something to say about that…

Tim Tebow’s Immaculate Deception

In cast you haven’t heart, Tim Tebow led the Denver Broncos to a thrilling 4th quarter comeback over the Miami Dolphins yesterday afternoon. As I noted in this week’s Suck 4 Luck Power Rankings, it was the first time a team has come back from 15 points down with less than three minutes to play in the 4th quarter to win.

Here are two of the key plays, which tied the game up at the end of regulation:

It truly was a remarkable game in every way, including the aftermath, because it’s the most Tim Tebow game ever. Tebow was beyond atrocious for 55 minutes on Sunday, so much so that you almost felt embarrassed for him; but then, as Tebow is wont to do, he somehow found a way to make the necessary plays with the opportunities given to him to rally the Broncos to a victory.

And this is where the name “Immaculate Deception” comes from. (Because every cool NFL feat that can be described as Immaculate Something Rhyming With Conception must be!)

Tebow supporters will be deceived by the final five minutes of the game into believing that he’ll definitely succeed in the NFL. Tebow detractors, on the other hand, will be deceived by the first first 55 minutes of the game into believing that he definitely cannot succeed. It truly is amazing how Tebow could prove both sides of an argument “right” in one game; except that he didn’t.

Tebow simply proved that, as with most things, the truth is somewhere in the middle. The truth is that Tebow has severe shortcomings as a passer that will limit any offense he is on, but his belief in himself, athleticism, and ability to come through in clutch situations means that he has a chance to be a winning QB if he has a coach who believes in him and a gameplan/roster tailored to his strengths.

We don’t know a damn thing more about Tebow now than we knew before yesterday.

But here is what we do know: a crazy confluence of events had to take place for Tebow and the Broncos to pull off that win:

• Tony Sparano’s idiotic call to go for two early in the fourth quarter. If Miami kicks the extra point, Denver’s 15 points lose by one.
• Tebow, who had made terrible passes all day long, threw a beautiful pass down the middle of the field that his receiver made a spectacular catch on.
• Demaryius Thomas had to make a very athletic, but questionable, grab on the first touchdown pass. The official then had to call it a TD on the field (the right call it looked like to me) and the replay booth had to confirm this call.
• Denver then had to recover an onside kick, which is unlikely as it is, but especially unlikely when a Dolphins player appears to have it easily at first before getting hit and dropping it.
• Tebow and the previously moribund Denver offense then had to march down the field again, which they did, ultimately scoring a TD, after which they had to score on a two-point conversation when everyone knew what play was coming.
• The Broncos had to withstand the Dolphins doing nothing on their first possession in sudden death overtime
• After getting a trip sack fumble on the Dolphins’ next possession, the Broncos simply ran three times to set up Matt Prater for a game-winning 50+ yard field goal on the same day when he’d missed two kicks previously. Of course, he made it.

And then, after the most unpredictable of finishes, the most predictable of postgame outcomes ensued: Tebow Mania, all night, all day today, and likely for this entire week and beyond.

Now that you’ve seen these two feats broken down into the series of unlikely elements that made them possible, it’s your turn to decide: which was more unlikely?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

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This Saturday night two of the Big Ten’s best teams will meet in East Lansing, Michigan.  The game will have Big Ten Championship game implications as both teams are currently favored to win their divisions in the Big Ten.

#16 Michigan State, ranked 4^th in the FBS in points allowed (10.8), is coming off a signature win against rival Michigan.  In that game, the Spartans held Denard Robinson, one of the most talented playmakers in all of college football, to just 165 total yards en route to a convincing 28-14 win.  Running back Edwin Baker struggled to hold onto the ball but still powered the offense with 167 yards and a touchdown.

#6 Wisconsin is coming off another impressive beat down, this time of hapless Indiana.  In the last two games between Wisconsin and Indiana the Badgers have outscored the Hoosiers by a score of 142-27.  Russell Wilson threw for a score and caught another, and the Badgers used their strong running back to beat the Hoosiers into submission.

Wisconsin-Michigan State: Things to consider for Saturday

One popular cliché is that good defense beats good offense.  In this case both teams have good defenses, while Wisconsin would seem to have a decided advantage on offense.

The visiting Badgers haven’t faced a serious challenge yet as they have won their 6 games by an average of more than 40 points.  Wisconsin’s powerful offense averages over 500 yards per game.  Quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown for 1557 yards and accounted for 17 total touchdowns and just one interception.  Running backs Montee Ball (653 yards, 16 TD) and James White (416 yards, 4 TD) are both averaging over 6 yards per carry.  Nick Toon leads the receiving corps with 447 yards and 6 scores.

Wisconsin is so effective because they pressure the defense in many different ways.  Wilson is very mobile and can run when he needs to, and the strength of the running game makes the defense stay honest.  With so many weapons and the ability to play almost any offensive style with success, coach Bret Bielema has to like his team’s chances in any game.

The Badgers’ defense deserves credit as well, as they lead the FBS in points allowed with just 9.7 per game.  Of course, with the exception of Nebraska – who was held 20 points below their season average – they haven’t been truly tested by a great offense yet.  Still, Wisconsin has done what they are supposed to do in each game, dominating on both sides of the ball.  They also are plus-6 in turnover differential, having only given away three possessions in 6 games.

The Badgers haven’t won in Spartan Stadium since 2002.

Michigan State has succeeded mostly because of a stifling defense.  Unfortunately, one of their best defensive playmakers, defensive end William Gholston, due to a suspension for throwing a punch and twisting the helmet of Robinson during the Michigan game.

The Spartans have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher, so the matchup against Ball and White will be especially interesting to watch.  No team Michigan State has faced so far has such a complete offense, so coach Mark Dantonio must have his team ready to defend the balanced attack of the Badgers.

Offensively, the Spartans will look to Edwin Baker and LeVeon Bell to carry their ground game.  Both backs have been effective combining for 706 yards and 8 touchdowns through 6 games while averaging nearly 5 yards per carry.

Kirk Cousins will try to shake off a lackluster game against Michigan and reestablish his connection star receiver B.J. Cunningham.  Nearly 37% of Cousins’ completions have gone to Cunningham, and on those completions Cunningham is responsible for 47% of Cousins’ passing yardage.  This is a dynamic quarterback-receiver tandem.

What Wisconsin must do to win

It sounds obvious, but Wisconsin must do exactly what they have done for 6 straight games – run the ball effectively, hit a few big pass plays, and continue to play mistake-free football.

Wilson will need to react to pressure, since this will be the toughest defense he has faced all season.  If he handles that pressure well and makes some big plays through the air, Michigan State will be forced to drop an extra man in coverage and that will open up wider lanes for Ball and White.  As talented as those two backs are, any extra running room could result in huge plays.  That will also allow them to control the clock, and shorten the game.  For a team that doesn’t make many mistakes, the less possessions in the game, the better.

Defensively, Wisconsin must limit Cunningham.  The loss of starting cornerback Devin Smith in week 2 hasn’t hurt the Badgers yet, but it could against a tough receiver like Cunningham.  They also must be able to stop the rushing attack of Baker and Bell, for the exact reasons they need to have success with Ball and White on their own offense.

What Michigan State must do to win

The Spartans must be able to run with effectiveness early in the game.  If they can, Wisconsin will be forced to cheat toward the run, allowing Cousins, a very accurate passer (65% completion percentage), to hit his receivers for big gains.  If they get stuffed early, setting up long 2^nd and 3^rd downs, look for Cousins to be forced into bad throws that could end up as turnovers.

Michigan State must also be able to play with intensity and get after Wilson, even without the dominating presence Gholston brings.  If they allow Wilson to sit back and make throws without being under duress, the game is over.  If they can harass him like they did Robinson (who is not as good a thrower but is a better runner than Wilson), look for the Spartans to have a very good chance of winning this game.

Lastly, Spartan Stadium will need to be a loud, rowdy place for the home team to win.  In college football, perhaps more than any other sport, home field advantage can have a huge effect on the outcome of games.  Against Nebraska, Wisconsin didn’t get rattled because they controlled a double-digit lead for most of the game.  Michigan State will need to keep it close to allow the crowd to have an effect.

Wisconsin-Michigan State Prediction

I expect this game to be very close.  Even though Wisconsin seems to have a decided edge, the home field advantage and the fact that Wisconsin hasn’t faced a defense as good as the Spartans’ yet make me think this will come down to the wire.

I think Wilson will play well.  Ball and White will start slowly, but their style of running tends to make them more effective as the opposing defenses tire.  Michigan State will play better on offense than most expect, but I think they will ultimately come up short.  They have turned the ball over a little too much this year, and I think in the end a turnover will doom them Saturday night.

Wisconsin 27, Michigan State 17.

What do you think?

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Wisconsin-Michigan State Game Info

• Wisconsin-Michigan State Date: Saturday, October 22
• Wisconsin-Michigan State Kickoff Time: 8:00 PM EST
• Wisconsin-Michigan State TV: ESPN
• Wisconsin-Michigan State Point Spread: Wisconsin -9
• Wisconsin-Michigan State Over/Under: 48

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Follow me on Twitter @keithmullett

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Image credits: monteeball.com, laketheposts.com, rr.com, espn.com

Passion.

And more specifically, youthfully exuberant passion, like the kind that was on display in Blacksburg, Virginia over the weekend.

If you’ve ever been to a big time college sporting event in a packed house, watching this video will give you chills and take you down memory lane.

And I bet for many in our target audience here at MSF, it will immediately remind them of this, and rightfully so:

As a proud Hoosier, I have no such football traditions I can point to, but all I’ll say is damn I miss Assembly Hall, and leave you with the single greatest college basketball timeout that there is and ever will be.

1. The Midwest owns baseball.

All 3 Midwestern Playoff teams—the Brewers, Cardinals, and Tigers—advanced to their respective League Championship Series, and at least one team will represent the region in the World Series. If the fifth inning of yesterday’s NLCS Game 1 is any indication, the Playoffs will not suffer from the elimination of the Red Sox, Yankees, and Phillies.

Dominance, with puppy.

2. Alex Smith dominates Jay Cutler style.

It may be too soon to remove Alex Smith’s name from the list of top draft picks that didn’t pan out (a list that includes Tim Couch, David Carr, and Jamarcus Russell). At the moment Smith is third in the league in quarterback rating (104.1), and he’s only thrown a single interception. (Prior to this year, Smith averaged one interception per start.) The 49ers, after a 48-3 drubbing of the Bucs, are 4-1 and maintain a 2-game lead in the NFC West.

3. Wisconsin and Michigan are still doing well.

In addition to the Brewers and Tigers advancing to their respective League Championship Series and the Brewers winning Game 1, the Packers, Badgers, Lions, and Wolverines all remain perfect. (The Badgers were off this week and the Lions play tonight, but still.)

4. Luke Fickell won’t be Ohio State’s head football coach next year.

And Jim Bollman won’t be the offensive coordinator. The Buckeyes blew a 21-point second-half lead on Saturday, losing 34-27 to Nebraska. Bucknuts, the Ohio State fan site, is calling the loss “arguably the biggest collapse in school history.” For Nebraska, the win was the biggest comeback in the history of the program. Ohio State is now 3-3, with consecutive losses for the first time in 7 years, and has 4 games remaining against ranked opponents.

Ohio State didn’t want Fickell to spend the year wearing the “interim” tag (the proverbial scarlet “I”), but functionally, he’s an interim head coach. Unless the Buckeyes win every remaining game (except, maybe, the Wisconsin game but including the bowl game), Fickell and Bollman won’t be back next year. And I get the impression that Ohio State fans won’t be sad to see embattled senior quarterback Joe Bauserman follow them out of Columbus.

5. Air Force refused an invitation from the Big 12 and will be joining the Missouri Valley Conference?!

A couple weeks ago a rumor surfaced that the Big East was interested in adding Air Force and Navy as football-only members. Saturday, Air Force athletic director Hans Mueh told the Denver Post that the interest was mutual. Mueh floated a plan that “would have the Falcons joining the Big East only in football, while moving teams in other sports to the Missouri Valley Conference.” (Of course, as we learned from Oklahoma, just because a school wants to join a conference doesn’t mean that the presidents of the schools in that conference will give the school an invitation.)

Mueh added:

We were approached by the Big 12, and I told them we’re not a good fit for that conference. In the Big 12, geography makes sense, the economics make sense, but recruiting makes no sense for us. I can’t recruit against Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State.

What does that say about the Big East?

At any rate, I look forward to many Falcons-Purple Aces basketball games to come.

Jimmie Johnson, and his beard, led 197 of 267 laps Sunday in Kansas. (AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)

6. Don’t be surprised if Jimmie Johnson wins his sixth consecutive Sprint Cup Championship.

Johnson followed up a second-place finish last week in Dover with a win this week in Kansas. Two weeks ago, Johnson was 10th in the Sprint Cup Standings and on a 20-race winless streak. Now, he’s in third place, only four points behind leader Carl Edwards, with a good chance of winning yet another Sprint Cup Championship. Six races remain, including the Tums Fast Relief 500 in Martinsville, which Johnson has won 4 times, and the Kobalt Tools 500 in Phoenix, which Johnson has won thrice.

7. Craig Smith is an early candidate for NHL Rookie of the Year.

I know that October is way to early to start talking about NHL, but Nashville Predators rookie Craig Smith is off to an impressive start. The Preds decided that Smith, a Wisconsin native and University of Wisconsin product, would not spend any more time in his home state. Instead of starting their first-round draft pick with the Milwaukee Admirals, Nashville’s farm team, the Preds put Smith in the opening day lineup. The move paid off. In two games, both Predators wins, Smith already has two goals and two assists.

8. We’re going to spend the week talking about Tim Tebow, aren’t we?

The Broncos are 1-4, and the quarterbacks on their roster have been selected to a total of zero Pro Bowls, but I get the feeling that we’re going to be talking about Orton and Tebow this week like they’re Montana and Young.

The usually serviceable Kyle Orton Sunday went 6-for-13 for 34 yards and an interception. Tim Tebow, who replaced Orton in the second half, more than doubled Orton’s passing output, added another 38 yards rushing, and scored two touchdowns (one on the ground and one through the air). The Broncos still lost to the Chargers, but they made a game of it.

I have no idea what Tebow’s future in the NFL looks like, but maybe he could be this year’s version of 2006 Vince Young. That year Young led a Titans team that started 0-5 to within a game of the Playoffs running the just-do-your-thing-Vince offense. Were it not for attitude problems, which have never plagued Tebow, Young likely would still be a starting quarterback in the NFL. Maybe Timmy has a future in this league after all. Then again, Broncos’ coach John Fox has given no indication that Tebow will replace Orton, so this may be a one-week conversation.

Anyway, here are some things we learned this week:

1. Minneapolis is the Mecca of bad football.

Major football teams that make their home in Minneapolis are a combined 1-8, and things were especially bad this weekend. The University of Minnesota Golden Gophers, who already have home losses to New Mexico State and North Dakota State on their resume, lost 58-0 in Ann Arbor on Saturday. Sunday, the Vikings dropped to 0-4 after losing to the similarly hapless Chiefs.

Wisconsin is lovely in the autumn.

2. States that have shores on Lakes Michigan and Superior are having a great fall.

Maybe Minnesota’s problem is that it borders only Lake Superior and not Lake Michigan. Things are much better in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Michigan is home to the Lions, who made yet another second-half comeback Sunday to remain undefeated; the Wolverines, who shut out the aforementioned Gophers 58-0 and have risen to #12 in the AP poll and #11 in the USA Today poll; and the Tigers, who are headed back to Detroit tied 1-1 with the Yankees in the American League Division Series.

Meanwhile in America’s Dairy, the Packers are a perfect 4-0, the Brewers are one game away from advancing to the National League Championship Series, and . . .

3. Wisconsin is a national championship contender

The Badgers, after a 48-17 creaming of Nebraska, are #4 according to the AP and #5 according to the coaches. Wisconsin’s toughest remaining game is either October 22 at Michigan State or November 19 at Illinois. Wisconsin should be favored in both. The Badgers have a clearer path to an undefeated season than any team other than Boise State. Don’t be surprised to see Wisconsin in New Orleans on January 9.

4. So is Clemson.

Yes, really. Clemson, currently #8 in both polls, may have a better trio of quality wins than anyone in the country. The Tigers are coming off of consecutive victories over defending national champion Auburn, preseason top-5 Florida State (albeit without starting QB EJ Manuel), and Virginia Tech in Blacksburg (by a score of 23-3). Clemson still has Georgia Tech in Atlanta, South Carolina in Columbia, and (possibly but probably) the ACC Championship Game, but the Tigers are more than capable of winning all three.

5. Brady Hoke made all my football dreams come true.

I’ve long been an advocate of 2-quarterback formations. Having 2 good quarterbacks should never be reason for controversy. Just play them both at the same time. (I’m not really an Xs-and-Os guy.)

Saturday, on the second play of Michigan’s public shaming of Minnesota, coach Brady Hoke put back-up QB Devin Gardner under center and lined up Denard Robinson as a third halfback. The Wolverines used the 2-QB set 4 times against the Gophers. I can only hope that they’ll return to this formation next week at Northwestern.

6. Alex Smith might be an NFL quarterback after all.

Smith went for a respectable 21-for-33 for 291 yards, 2 touchdowns, and zero interceptions in the 49ers’ road win over the Eagles on Sunday. I was going to make an “Alex Smith has gotten more chances than anyone not named ________” joke, but I couldn’t think of anyone in sports, entertainment, or any other walk of life who has gotten more chances, without doing anything to earn them, than Alex Smith.

At any rate, Smith is the starting quarterback on a team that is 3-1 (and was very nearly 4-0) and already has a 2-game lead in its division. He’s also 8th in the NFL in quarterback passer rating. (I know it’s a flawed stat, but still.)

7. Chris Johnson might still be an NFL running back.

In his first 3 games this season, Johnson rushed for a total of 98 yards on 48 carries. That’s barely 2 yards per attempt. Sunday against the Browns, he ran for 101 yards on 23 carries. Granted, it was one game, against the Browns. But for Titans fans and fantasy owners who had been waiting for C.J. To have a breakout game, “Johnson (101)” was a welcome sight.

8. Devin Hester is the most accomplished punt returner in NFL history.

Hester took a punt 69 yards into the end zone during the Bears’ victory Sunday over the Panthers, setting an NFL record with 11 career punt returns for touchdowns. You know who didn’t send Hester a congratulatory text? Hester’s old friend Nevin Shapiro.

9. Three NFL teams started Purdue quarterbacks this week.

Purdue football fans haven’t had much to feel good about lately. But on a weekend when the Boilers lost 38-10 to Notre Dame, 3 former Purdue quarterbacks started for pro teams (Brees, Orton, and Painter). Sure 2 of the 3 lost, but Curtis Painter (281 yards and no picks) played better than expected, and Purdue fans need something take pride in right now. Boiler up.

10. The MLB Playoffs have lived up to their opening act.

I feared that there was no way baseball’s Playoffs could be as exciting as the final night of the regular season, but so far the postseason hasn’t disappointed. Three of the 4 series were tied after 2 games, and there have been plenty of close games, lead changes, and gutty performances.

Last night the Rangers scored 4 runs in the 7th to edge out the Raymonds, and Justin Verlander pitched an 8-inning, 11-strikeout win against the Yankees. Sunday night, the Cardinals came back from down 4 to prove that Cliff Lee isn’t invincible in October. Perhaps last Wednesday was just an hors d’oeuvre.

11. Angel McCoughtry is the best professional athlete you’ve never heard of.

If you live in Minnesota and you’re depressed about the Vikings, Gophers, Twins, etc., you might want to follow the Lynx, who have a 1-0 lead in the WNBA Finals. If you do watch the remaining Finals games between the Lynx and the Atlanta Dream, pay attention to the Dream’s Angel McCoughtry, the best professional athlete you’ve never heard of.

Even people who ignore the WNBA have heard of Diana Taurasi, Candace Parker, and Maya Moore (of the Lynx). Casual fans know Cappie Pondexter and Tamika Catchings (this year’s MVP). But few know about McCoughtry who is as good as any of them. The 6-1 forward has carried the Dream through the Playoffs—along the way eliminating my Indiana Fever with a barrage of jump shots that would have won her a HORSE tournament—and Sunday night scored 33 in a losing effort. McCoughtry already holds WNBA records for points in a Conference Finals game (42) and in a Finals game (35). Don’t be surprised if she saves the Dream from elimination and leads them to a title.

12. Kobe Bryant is getting ready to return to his childhood home.

Bryant and Italian club Virtus Bologna are working on a deal to bring Bryant to the country where he spent much of his childhood. Joe “Jellybean” Bryant, Kobe’s dad, signed with an Italian basketball team when Kobe was 6. Joe retired and moved the family back to the states when Kobe was 13. Bryant has said it would be a “dream” to play in Italy, but I’m guessing that he’d have no trouble letting go of that dream if the NBA lockout were to end today (and it almost certainly won’t).

13. Disney is really counting on people taking Real Steel seriously.

For each hour of sports you watched this weekend, you saw no fewer than 7 ads for Disney’s forthcoming movie Real Steel. Apparently, Disney believes that people will flock to theaters next week to see the Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots movie. Disney is probably right. As a species we can’t resist special effects.

In fairness, Real Steel wasn’t inspired by Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots but by a pretty good 1956 Richard Matheson short story (“Steel”) that was the basis for a pretty good Twilight Zone episode. Neither the story nor the Twilight Zone episode were about a kid building a fighting robot with his estranged father. Rather, both were about an aging former boxer who refused to give up on his battered, out-of-date boxing robot. In a desperate effort to win money to repair his bot, the old fighter takes the robot’s place in the ring. (It’s not as ridiculous as it sounds.)

The favorites in the Leaders Division, the Wisconsin Badgers (ranked #7 in both the AP and USA Today polls), will host the Nebraska Cornhuskers (ranked #8 in both the AP and USA Today polls) in the conference opener for both teams, this Saturday night at 8:00 pm ET.

Of course, for Nebraska this is more than just a conference opener, as this will be their first Big Ten game since moving to the conference to start this season.

The Huskers will get as tough a test as the Big Ten has to offer, playing in notoriously raucous Camp Randall Stadium as ABC’s marquee Saturday night game and with the ESPN College Gameday crew in attendance.

How they look headed into Saturday

Russell Wilson adds a whole new dimension to Wisconsin's offense.

Both teams enter 4-0, having gone unscathed through their non-conference slate to open the season.  Wisconsin hasn’t been tested yet, rolling through their 4 wins with an average margin of victory of 40 points.  Their non-conference schedule was weak, but the Badgers dominated defensively, allowing less than 9 points per contest.

First-year starting quarterback Russell Wilson has been dynamic as a thrower and capable as a runner, giving the Badgers a dimension offensively that hasn’t been seen in Madison in recent years.  Wilson ranks in the top 10 in the FBS in passing yards (1136, 9^th), touchdowns (11, t-8^th) and passer rating (218.4, 2^nd) while only throwing one interception.

Wisconsin has excelled in running the football, as usual.  Montee Ball and James White, the Badgers’ two-headed tailback beast, have combined for 663 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns so far.  The Badgers always display a punishing running game, and 2011 has been no different.

Nebraska has been less impressive, struggling to put away Fresno State until the 4^th quarter and Washington until a couple of costly turnovers by the Huskies allowed Nebraska to build a large lead.

Rex Burkhead could be the key to Nebraska's offense against Wisconsin.

Nebraska’s biggest concerns have been a struggling defense that is allowing 350 yards per game, including over 400 to both Fresno State and Washington, and the exciting but inconsistent sophomore quarterback Taylor Martinez.

Martinez is a spectacular playmaker, but his numbers as a thrower have regressed since his freshman season.  So far he has rushed for 421 yards – which is good for 18^th among all FBS players – and 7 touchdowns, but he is completing only 50% of his passes en route to only 162 passing yards per game.

Nebraska’s junior running back Rex Burkhead has gotten off to a great start, amassing 420 yards and 7 touchdowns in the first 4 games.  If Martinez continues to struggle passing, the Huskers will rely on Burkhead to shoulder a big chunk of the load offensively.

What Wisconsin must do to win

For the Badgers to win this game, they must continue to play tough, disciplined defense, particularly against Martinez’s running plays.

Last year, another scintillating running quarterback, Michigan’s Denard Robinson, threw for 239 yards, rushed for 121 yards, and combined for 4 scores.  Wisconsin won the game thanks to Michigan’s awful defense, but even as much as the Huskers have struggled to defend this season they are nowhere near as bad as Michigan was last year.

Wisconsin also must continue to do what they do best – manage the game by controlling the clock and running the ball.  The Badgers rarely turn the ball over, and with their powerful rushing attack can eat up huge chunks of the clock and keep opponents’ offenses off the field.

Russell Wilson needs to play a composed, patient game.  He has feasted on weaker defenses so far, so he needs to pick his spots for big plays and allow Ball and White to dominate the game.  If they are successful running the ball, Wilson’s opportunities will open up and he’ll be able to play pitch and catch with his receivers.

What Nebraska must do to win

The Huskers have had issues with turning the ball over this season, and although they are even in turnover margin (6 takeaways, 6 giveaways), they cannot expect Wisconsin to gift-wrap them any easy scores by putting the ball on the ground or throwing it to the wrong colored jersey.   So if the Huskers give the ball away, they will end up on the wrong side of the turnover battle and will likely lose.

Martinez will need to be decisive and get the ball out quickly.  He is the key to everything Nebraska does offensively, so as he goes, the Huskers go.  I would try to hit receivers on quick routes early and often, allowing the running game to open up for Martinez and Burkhead.

Lastly, they must handle the hostile environment.  Camp Randall is loud, and “Jump Around” will be blaring.  False starts and miscommunications could crush the Huskers’ hopes.  The Huskers have practiced with artificial noise, but there is no simulating what this game will be like, especially given its historical significance and spotlight on national television.  You know the Badgers’ fans would love to spoil this one for the Huskers.

Wisconsin-Nebraska Prediction

I expect the Badgers to come out hot.  I look for Wilson to hit on a couple of big scoring strikes in the first half while Nebraska’s offense sputters a bit.  Wisconsin will build a sizable lead by the third quarter and focus on controlling the clock with Ball and White and playing mistake-free football.

As the Huskers get more desperate and Wisconsin settles in, I see them scoring on some big plays of their own, but ultimately never putting the Badgers in any real danger.

Final Score: Wisconsin 34, Nebraska 24.

Wisconsin wins and covers the spread (-9.5 as of posting).  I also expect these two teams to meet again in December in Indianapolis with a trip to a BCS bowl – and maybe more for Wisconsin – on the line.

Now it’s your turn:

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Wisconsin-Nebraska Game Info

• Wisconsin-Nebraska Date: Saturday, October 1st
• Wisconsin-Nebraska Kickoff Time: 8:00 ET
• Wisconsin-Nebraska TV: ABC
• Wisconsin-Nebraska Point Spread: Wisconsin -9.5
• Wisconsin-Nebraska Over-Under: 56

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Follow me on Twitter @keithmullett

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Image credits: zimbio.com, offtackleempire.com, heismanpundit.com, ljworld.com

As highly touted as any signee might be out of the prep or even JC ranks, one doesn’t know how good that player will be until he steps out between the lines in front of 80,000 fans on Saturday. This time last year Cameron Newton was not even a household name (unless you are one of those obsessed souls in the South that breathes SEC football 24/7/365).

With that said, the Wisconsin Badgers just scored an amazing coup by getting Russell Wilson final year of eligibility under what is known as the “graduate student exception.”

Immediately, Wilson to Madison becomes one of college ball’s biggest storylines for 2011.

If the name sounds vaguely familiar it’s probably because of the experience Wilson already has under his belt being a three-year starter for North Carolina State.

In three seasons with the Wolfpack, Wilson threw for 76 touchdown versus only 26 interceptions, and in 2008-09 he threw 389 passes without a pick, the longest such streak in NCAA history. Accounting for his rushing stats, Wilson accumulated over 9,600 yards and 93 touchdowns in his time at NCSU. Already graduated after three years, Wilson is also the grandson of Harrison Wilson, who was the president of Norfolk State University from 1975 through 1997.

So why was Russell Wilson out on the open market? Wilson also happened to be a baseball prospect who was spending his summers in the Colorado Rockies organization, against the wishes of the NC State football staff, who ultimately released Wilson from his scholarship earlier this year.

Upon reporting to Spring Training, Wilson said:

“At this point in my life, the best thing for me is to concentrate fully on baseball in the same way that I concentrated fully on football. Ultimately, decisions about my athletic future will be made based on my potential to succeed at the highest professional level.”

Two plus months of hitting around .230 in A ball proved to be a good reason for Wilson to look back at the gridiron. With the option of being able to play immediately for any school in the nation, many had Wilson potentially succeeding Cam Newton and moving on to Auburn.

That was before Wilson was won over during a recent trip to Madison, and ultimately he decided to sign with Bucky, where he will also be taking graduate courses.

Take that SEC; take that Paul Finebaum.

But the signing brings up curious bar-stool talk in Sconnie, one usually reserved for the schools down south.

For the first time since Barry Alvarez arrived at the Wisconsin Athletic Department in 1990, an African-American will be under center for the Badgers, though the meaning of this pales in comparison with Auburn and the SEC, where the color barrier in athletics was not broken until 1970. In the Civil Rights Era, Bear Bryant was urged by Governor George Wallace to employ an all-white squad. It took a snub by voters towards Alabama after an undefeated 1966 season and a beatdown by the USC Trojans at Legion Field in 1970 for that program, and the rest of the SEC, to finally change course. Meanwhile Texas and Arkansas closed the 1969 season playing a de-facto National Championship game with all-white squads in a contest billed as ‘Dixie’s Last Stand‘.

Also, Wisconsin was the first Big Ten team to employ a black QB in 1956, that same year the Badgers took scheduled games against LSU off the schedule rather than abide with a Louisiana state law which outlawed ‘integrated’ athletic events.

The situation with Wisconsin not having a black QB over the past 20 years is for the most part coincidental, but also partially points to a system that’s utilized game-managers at QB, and difference makers at other positions. The Badgers first enjoyed success in the 1990′s with Darrell Bevell under center, who has since gone on to a NFL coaching career (Vikings and now Seahawks offensive coordinator). Brooks Bollinger and Jim Sorgi are some of the other notables since then.

The Badgers’ blueprint has historically featured a smash-mouth running game (Brent Moss/Ron Dayne/P.J. Hill/John Clay, and an occasional speedster like Michael Bennett) although there have also been stars at wide receiver (Lee Evans and Chris ‘The Time Has Come” Chambers) and at tight end (Owen Daniels). And then there is the offensive line where Joe Thomas, Mark Tauscher, Gabe Carimi and Casey Rabich are among those who have advanced to the next level.

Meanwhile, the likes of Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb, or even Tim Tebow would be considered round holes in the square peg that is the Barry Alvarez template.

Russell Wilson, conversely, does fit the qualifications and will easily fit into the Wisconsin system.

At 5’11”, he will be frowned upon in 2012 NFL Draft discussions. But this isn’t about the NFL Draft, this is about the Wisconsin Badgers winning this season, and winning big.

The new divisional set-up in the Big Ten has placed the Badgers in what I personally call the Southeast Division with Penn State and Ohio State. In case you have not heard, there is a lot of turmoil in Buckeye-land these days, which makes the Badgers front-runners to win their division and to ultimately play the winner of the “Northwest Division” (Iowa/Michigan/Nebraska) in the conference title game.

Sampling some of the other columnists, expectations are now sky high at Wisconsin. The usual 9-3 or 10-2 and the Citrus Bowl will not cut it. The Rose Bowl (or other BCS bowl game) is not even a lofty expectation. 12-1 (minimum) and a conference championship is where the bar is now set, along with BCS title game consideration (although there will be an SEC and possibly Pac-12 representative doing their usual posturing).

Let the hysteria, Heisman hype, and Championship talk begin. The best part is now we know where Russell Wilson will be playing, and unlike the NFL, we KNOW there will be a college football season.

Team A has much more of an inside presence on both ends than Team B…so it will be a tough matchup for B.

Team A has nobody that can guard Player X on Team B…so it will be a tough matchup for A.

Many times, we line up the teams, compare individual players, maybe look at the bench and the coach, and come away with a good synopsis of what is likely to happen.

Then, there are the games like this year’s Sweet 16 matchup between Wisconsin and Butler.

Sweet 16: #4 Wisconsin v #8 Butler (Southeast Region)

• Wisconsin-Butler Date: Thursday, March 24th
• Wisconsin-Butler Tip Time: 9:57 ET
• Wisconsin-Butler Location: New Orleans
• Wisconsin-Butler Announcers: Gus Johnson, Len Elmore, and Reggie Miller with Marty Snider
• Wisconsin-Butler Spread: Wisconsin -4
• Wisconsin-Butler Over-Under: 123.5
• RazorGator: Wisconsin-Butler Sweet 16 Tickets – ($20 off on orders of $200 or more at RazorGator.com. Use code ORDR20RG.)
• Vivid Seats: Wisconsin-Butler Sweet 16 Tickets

Both of these teams are perfect examples of the classic “whole is greater than the sum of their parts” ballclub. While really trying to decide the winner of this game, it would be easy to get bogged down in the stats (below) or the individual matchups – most of which are surprisingly fantastic and which we will delve into shortly

Wisconsin-Butler Statistical Analysis

Statistical breakdown via ESPN Bracket Predictor.

Wisconsin-Butler Star Matchup Analysis

Shelvin Mack vs. Jordan Taylor

Both of these players lead their teams in similar ways. They are both kind of the “silent-assassin” type, but they each have the flair for the dramatic. If you’re reading this, you most likely saw “Mack the Knife” light up Pitt for 30 points, including 7 of 12 from distance. If you then stayed up and watched the Wisconsin-KState game, you may have been less impressed by Jordan Taylor.

Don’t be.

While he struggled from the floor (only finishing 2 of 16 from the field) and was lit up on the defensive end by Jacob Pullen, he still came up with the play of the game. In the closing seconds, Pullen came around a screen and rose for what would have been his 41st points of the game, only to be met in mid-air by Jordan Taylor and have the ball blocked as it left his hand.

For anyone that has watched the Big Ten all year, it was fitting that the Badgers’ most important player came up with the biggest play of the game, in spite of all the troubles that he had.

This Mack-Taylor matchup is about as close to being a wash as is possible. Mack is a little better shooter, Taylor is probably the better penetrator and passer. Both guys can and will make big plays in crunch time.

If forced to choose, I would lean Butler’s way because of Mack’s tournament experience…but it’s definitely not enough of a lean to make a game decision.

Matt Howard vs. Jon Leuer

Leuer by far has more pro potential. He looks smoother with the basketball in his hands, his post moves are a little more refined, and his jump shot more fluid.

But Howard, the awkward kid from Connersville, IN, just keeps getting it done.

To be honest, the most important part of this matchup may just be who stays out of foul trouble. In all likelihood, Leuer will usually be matched up against Butler center Andrew Smith, but Leuer and Howard are still the most important post player for each team. Howard has racked up at least four fouls in twelve games this year and fouled out of four of them. Leuer has only received four fouls six times and has yet to foul out.

From the eye test, Leuer blows Howard away, but the matchup will be much closer than it looks at first glance. I would give the edge to Wisconsin because of the foul trouble potential, but don’t be surprised if Howard wins the matchup if he ends up staying on the floor.

Wisconsin-Butler Difference Makers on Each Side

You could go down the list comparing starters, role players, etc. and end up frustrating yourself to no end. The reality is that in this matchup, it probably won’t come down to individual players.

Really, in order to pick this game, you have to trust your own basketball experience.

This may be a complete cop-out (especially from an article that is supposed to be picking the winner), but let’s just look at this game from both sides: The Butler Way, and the Wisconsin Way.

Butler has three distinct advantages going into this game that give them an edge in the matchup.

3 Reasons Butler Will Win

1.  Ronald Nored

Maybe you haven’t been watching Butler all year, but if you have, you know that he’s the real leader of their team. Not only that, he might be the best all-around defender in the nation.

A quick look at his stat line tells you almost nothing about him besides the fact that he can’t shoot (which really…he CAN’T shoot). 5.5 points, 2.6 assists, 3.1 rebounds, and 1.3 steals. Not much to look at.

But just ask Ashton Gibbs, a guy averaging 17 points a game in the VAUNTED BIG EAST about Nored’s defense. Gibbs was only able to even attempt 7 shots as he finished the game with 11 points…2 in the second half. Nored truly is a coach’s dream. He gets lower than anyone I have ever seen on defense, and his strides are so small and quick that his man never gets a chance to set up his move.

Nored will be the key to the Mack-Taylor matchup, because while Taylor will most likely have to wear himself out guarding Mack (like he did against Pullen with little success), Nored will make Taylor work just as hard on the offensive end. If Wisconsin needs Taylor to play another full 40 minutes, this will be a huge edge for Butler.

2.  Overall Defense

There really is no way to adequately put Butler’s defense into print. Let’s just say this: last March, when Butler made their run, I taped every single one of their games and watched them over and over for one reason – their defensive rotation. It really is a work of art.

This team plays man-to-man defense against better athletes every game and still routinely holds its opponents under 60. No metric can really effectively measure it – Once Butler got all of their players back from injury this year, the same smothering defense returned – just like no metric could predict that they would outrebound the best rebounding team in the country while their two best big men were in trouble the entire second half.

If you have been watching the games, you have seen them hold better athletes to well-below their normal scoring output. Against Wisconsin, they will actually be playing against athletes that are their relative equal. I shudder to think of what they could do to a team that only scored 33 points a week and a half ago.

3.  Brad Stevens

This weekend, Rick Pitino was on TBS with the panel trying not to punch Charles Barkley for making fun of “The Itty Bitty East.” When he finally got the chance to speak, Pitino said the following:

“If Brad Stevens is the future of coaching in college basketball, the sport is in a good place.”

Well said Coach. I couldn’t put it any better.

On the other hand, Wisconsin owns a few advantages of their own in this matchup.

3 Reasons Wisconsin Will Win

1.  Mike Bruesewitz

Wisconsin has a super sub of their own, and he provides a number of emotional intangibles. Everybody loves it when the lanky red-head hits a three. He’s almost like the revolutionary Matt Bonner (besides the fact that he plays nothing like Matt Bonner).

To be honest, Bruesewitz is the one player on the floor that Butler kind of has a hard time matching up against. At 6 foot 6 with long arms, he will be a tough matchup for Mack, Vanzant, Hahn, or anyone else that Butler has on the floor. Past that, if he gets just one jumper to fall, his team will ride the momentum as far as it can.

If I was Butler, I would be very worried about the big red-head. If he gets going, they could be in for a long night.

2.  Overall Offense

I know I haven’t thrown a lot of stats at you, but here is one that is just unbelievable: the Badgers are SECOND in the entire nation in points per possession and FIRST in turnover %. It’s quite rare for one team to rank in the top 30 of two separate offensive categories…and they rank in the top two of arguably the two most important offensive categories.

A lot of people hate Bo Ryan. And I admit, his teams often play a style of basketball that is borderline unwatchable (especially to an NBA fan like myself). But guess what? His teams win games. Lots of them. Because they just execute on offense.

You will not see any ridiculous pull-up 20-footers with 23 seconds left on the shot clock while his team holds an 8 point lead.

(Yeah, I’m talking to you, Jimmer. You are awesome…but unbelievably dumb and borderline selfish at times. Maybe it’s the Honor Code…maybe it’s your way of rebelling…whatever it is, it’s going to kill your team. Write it down).

If Wisconsin gets a 5 or 6 point lead at any point in the second half, be prepared for them to take the air out of the ball…and frustrate Butler to no end.

3.  Bo Ryan

If everything in the above section didn’t convince you that he’s an elite coach, just try these stats on for size:

• Ryan is one of only 17 active division one coaches with 500 victories and his winning percentage in that span is second only to Roy Williams.
• Ryan’s winning percentage, .711 (101-41) in Big Ten games is the best of any Big Ten coach in history, surpassing both Bob Knight (353-151, .700) and Tom Izzo’s (168-72, .700) percentage.
• This season, Ryan tied legendary Indiana coach Branch McCracken as the second-fastest coach in conference history to record 100 Big Ten wins, accomplishing this milestone in 140 games. Only Indiana coach Bob Knight reached that plateau sooner (131 games).
• He is 11-8 in the NCAA Tournament and has never missed the tourney while at Wisconsin.

All of that to say, when we talk about the best coaches in college basketball, old Bo often gets unfairly left out.

Wisconsin-Butler Prediction

So who wins the game?

Again, this matchup comes back to you. I gave you three reasons for each team to feel confident, but you will have to decide for yourself. Maybe you like the big red head. Or maybe you like Ronald Nored more. You have to base the decision on what YOU know and believe about basketball.

Me? It’s close, but not that close.

I remember watching this Wisconsin team last year in the tournament. As soon as they got down, they faded into obscurity. That doesn’t happen to this Butler team. That’s what most impressed me Saturday against Pitt. As soon as Pitt reclaimed the lead in the second half, everyone (especially the announcers) assumed that they would cruise to victory. But this Butler team is just too tough. Mack will make a play. Howard will make a play. Vanzant will make a play. Nored will make a play. And when it’s none of them, Andrew Smith is laying the ball in softly with 2 seconds left.

Expect more of the same on Thursday.

Vegas expects it to be close, and it will be, but free throws at the end will give the edge to the Bulldogs.

• Wisconsin-Butler Prediction: Butler 62, Wisconsin 53.
• Wisconsin-Butler Spread Pick: Butler +4
• Wisconsin-Butler Over-Under Pick: Under