Colts-Chargers Wild Card Preview, Prediction, and Injury Updates
Wild Card weekend is upon us, with four games to try to satiate America’s insatiable appetite for the NFL. (Follow the think for a breakdown of the TV schedules, announcer lineups, and point spreads of each game this weekend.)
There is one clear marquee matchup this weekend though, and it will take place Saturday night at 8:00 in San Diego, California when the Indianapolis Colts take on the San Diego Chargers.
Why is this game the marquee matchup of the weekend?
- These are the two hottest teams in the NFL. The Colts started 3-4 and then won 9 straight to finish 12-4 and capture the Wild Card. The Chargers started 4-8 and then reeled off four straight wins to finish 8-8 and win the AFC West. That’s 13 straight victories between the two, and proof that I have elementary math skills.
- The game features superstars on both sides of the ball for each team. Peyton Manning is now a three-time MVP winner, while the Chargers have a former MVP of their own in LaDainian Tomlinson. Bob Sanders is a former NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Philip Rivers rubs some people the wrong way, but has had an outstanding season. Antonio Gates, Antonio Cromartie, Reggie Wayne, Dwight Freeney…yeah, there are stars all over the field.
- The Colts and Chargers have a history of playing great, meaningful games against eachother in both the regular season and the playoffs. Earlier this season, the Colts beat the Chargers 23-20 in a game that helped turn the Colts season around. They have played three times in the last two seasons, and each game has been decided by four points or less.
- It is possible that this could be Tony Dungy’s last game on an NFL sideline if the Colts fall short Saturday night.
There are plenty more reasons, but there is no need to state the obvious any more. Everyone knows that this will be the best game of the weekend, and I can’t wait to park myself on the couch and watch it Saturday night.
If you are looking for some solid analysis of the game, here are a few relevant links for you:
USA TODAY Colts-Chargers Preview and Prediction
Scouts, Inc Colts-Chargers Preview and Prediction
Stampede Blue – a great source for up-to-the-minute Colts news and notes
Now, let’s discuss for a minute one of the most important factors leading up to this game: injuries. The Colts have been hampered by injuries all season long, but are relatively healthy heading into this game. Oft-injured superstar SS Bob Sanders will play, as will RB Joseph Addai, although he only has one carry over the last three weeks. As of right now, only Gary Brackett is listed as out on the injury report. CB Keiwan Ratliff is questionable, but participated fully in the most recent practice.
On the San Diego side, the injury outlook is a little less clear and positive. Both Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson are questionable as of the most recent updates on the injury report. According to ProFootballTalk.com, they both have a 50-50 chance of playing. Obviously, the availability of stars like Tomlinson and Gates will have a huge impact on the game.
(Update: Just heard John Clayton say on ESPN that Tomlinson should be able to play, despite not practicing all week. Antonio Gates, however, is “more questionable.” Norv Turner was reportedly more pessimistic after the most recent practice and Gates will be a game-time decision.)
Now let’s get down to the nitty-gritty. It’s prediction time. I will come right out and say that I think the Colts are winning this game. Who do you think will win?
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Here are my reasons for liking the Colts on Saturday night:
- The Colts’ superstars are healthier. Playoff games are won by stars, and with Tomlinson and Gates hindered, it is a huge advantage to a Colts team that has gotten healthy at just the right time.
- Who do you have more confidence in: Tony Dungy or Norv Turner? I thought so.
- Who do you have more confidence in: Peyton Manning or Philip Rivers? I thought so. (And let me just say, this is no disrespect to Philip Rivers, who is proving to be an outstanding quarterback. But Peyton Manning won the MVP for a reason, and he has proven more in the postseason than Rivers.)
- The Chargers are 3-7 against teams outside the AFC West. And remember, the AFC West sucks. If the Chargers were in any other AFC division, they most likely would not even be in the playoffs.
However, this is not going to be any type of cake walk for the Colts, regardless of whether Gates and Tomlinson play. Peyton Manning has always struggled against the Chargers defense, and the gap between Manning and Rivers is actually closer than you might think. Plus, you have to give San Diego a slight bump because of 
the homefield advantage.
Still, in close games, I always go with the coach and QB I trust more. And regardless of whether you think Manning or Rivers is playing better right now, I don’t think anyone can argue that Tony Dungy is a better coach, and specifically a better big-game coach, than Norv Turner. For that reason in particular, I’m taking the Colts.
Colts-Chargers Prediction:
Indianapolis Colts 31 | San Diego Chargers 30
(And this, of course, means that you should go run and put money on the Chargers. I would say that my success predicting games this year has been bad, but I don’t want to overstate my abilities.)
Enjoy the game everyone, and then get ready for the Dolphins to upset the Ravens on Sunday. It’s happening.
