I know for sure that I have thought and will continue to think that I can assemble a team better than some GMs out there.

My favorite time to pretend I am a GM is when the NFL Draft rolls around. Most people who have a favorite team, in my case the Minnesota Vikings (sad, yes I know), have an opinion for what area said team needs to improve whether it is for talent or personal reasons.

Today’s topic, however, has nothing to do with who the Vikings should draft. As long as it is a quality pick and they don’t reach for a project pick who is then rushed along without proper development (See: Jackson, Tarvaris), I don’t mind who they pick.

Rather, let us take a look at something more general, and one the biggest yearly debates and uncertainties of the NFL Draft: the debate of production vs. potential.

Today we will look at this debate through the prism of two different receivers. Both played for teams in BCS conferences and both were in a BCS bowl game this past season. They will be referred to as WR1 and WR2 to prevent bias.

First up is WR1, who measures out at 6’3” 224 lbs. and had a 40 time in the 4.5 range during the NFL combine in February. He is projected as a late first round pick.

The following quote about WR1 is from Todd McShay on his weekly podcast ESPN First Draft.

“He can come in, run a bunch of nine routes, and run down the field. He can’t run the route tree in the NFL, inconsistent catching the ball intermediate, blocking is not there, all sorts of questions with his game and needs lots of coaching.”

His bio on NFL.com also includes the following:  (WR1) runs sloppy routes and is raw with his route-running in general. Needs to be more consistent with his concentration on the ball. Blocking must improve at the next level, which is tough to swallow given his size.

WR1 seems to lack a lot of the required skills and abilities that it takes to be a top flight receiver, something we have seen in Braylon Edwards, who claims he is a top five receiver in the league, and actually gets paid like one, even though he can’t catch the ball.

Obviously this player has some positives that make him a first round pick. Along with his outstanding size, speed, strength and potentially outstanding upside, he thrived as a receiver in a run dominated offense, which has to count for something. He also has that magical asset that everyone looks for in a receiver, “Playmaking Potential”, which is like being seven feet tall and playing basketball.

Remember: WR1 will be receiving a four year contract and will be in the top 20% of receiver salaries in all of the league.

Now let’s take a look at WR2. He is 5’11” 193 lbs. and finished this past season as the second leading receiver in catches, fifth in yards and seventh in TD catches in all of D-I football. He also ran his 40 yard dash in the 4.5 range and was a punt and kick returner for three years.

Despite the numbers, WR2 is projected as a third round pick because of his size and lack of explosiveness in the vertical game. This makes sense because WR2 is definitely a slot receiver, where as WR1 is projected and expected to be a number one receiver in the league. Number one receivers are always going to be drafted ahead of number two and three receivers. Always.

The key in this debate is time.

How much time does an organization have to sit and wait on a player to potentially become great? There aren’t a lot of teams that can allow a first round pick to be a non-factor for up to three years. Players like that make coaches, GMs, and quarterbacks lose their jobs. Teams without that timetable are more likely to draft guys like WR2.

Then there are teams like the Ravens. The Ravens have a stable, accomplished, and relatively new coaching staff. They also have a young QB who is still developing.

Would the logical pick be to take a slot receiver, one much like WR2, and allow him to step in and contribute right away? He would likely get matched up with nickel corners and linebackers most of the time, and wouldn’t have to face the Darrelle Revises of the league.

Or would the Ravens prefer to take a guy like WR1, let him grow, and have a dynamic one-two punch for ten years? It is no secret the NFL is more of a passing league than it has ever been, and the key to passing the ball is getting it down field. WR1-type guys can do that. WR2-type guys cannot.

We’ve seen the Darius Heyward-Beys and Troy Williamsons of the world come in with superb height and speed and that magical “Playmaking Potential” that we all dream about. And we’ve seen a lot of them fail.

While first round receivers fail, we see guys like Wes Welker thrive in a low profile slot receiver roll and make a greater contribution than anyone else at their position.

It is common knowledge that first round receivers struggle to make their way in the league within the first two or three years. Why take that risk when it is easily avoidable?

Most GMs are afraid of missing “that guy” and taking the wrong player. This happens in every sport. If a player has the potential to make multiple All-Pro teams and become the face of a franchise, it is likely that he will go as early as possible. Who wants to root for a faceless team?

So which receiver is the better pick?

• The guy who can come in right away, catch 60-70 balls and potentially upgrade the passing offense from week one?
• Or the one that takes up to three years to potentially have 100+ catches, lead the league in touchdowns and be in the pro bowl year after year?

The Bears’ first string WR is Devin Hester, a return man turned WR. At first I didn’t agree with the change, but now that the Bears have committed him to at the WR position, Hester has shown a lot of improvment. He is a big threat downfield, and even more now because he has a QB that can hit him farther down the field.

The Bears also have one of the greatest route-running and receiving tight ends in the game today. Greg Olsen has produced great numbers throughout his tenure with the Bears. He has 7 career TDs and his receptions increase every year. He was a great pick in the 2007 draft and his numbers will only improve.

Matt Forte is one of the great all-around running backs in the game. He can run, catch, and block. What a gem from the 2nd round. His catching abilities are one of his greatest assests. He can be counted on to get that extra yard or block that blitzing corner back. Forte is one of the best athlete in the league.

And how can we forget Desmond Clark? He might not produce amazing numbers, but he can be counted on every time his number is called. He is also a great blocking tight end. Clark is the veteran every team should have.

Rookie WR Juaqin Iglesias will need a few years to transition to the NFL, but that doesn’t mean he won’t make an impact this year. He is a sure-handed WR who can run routes very well. Look for him to be a sleeper, as soon as this season.

So I don’t want to hear how the Bears don’t have any good receivers. The offense is a great one that can produce touchdowns. The defense, in fact, needs to be tweaked more than the offense. I am glad Lovie is back to calling the plays and with all of the potential that this team possesses, It seems like it will be an interesting Chicago Bears season in 2009.

BEAR DOWN!!!

* – Devin Hester/Matt Forte photo credit: Paul Sancya / Associated Press via NFL.com

Controversy in the Desert

The Cardinals have some incredible talent in the desert. Kurt Warner prayed that his team wouldn’t suck after he got Anquan Boldin rocked by the Jets and his prayers were answered by Steve Breaston. Breaston proved to fill the spot well and has averaged 98 YPG since week 4. Everyone saw his value hitting the floor, though, when Anquan Boldin bounced back. It didn’t. This week against the Panthers he had 91 yards and made it clear that he was still considered a key part of the offense. Not to mention, sticky contract negotiations with Boldin have Steve Breaston in the front office looking to ink a deal with the Cards.

Even with Anquan Boldin back, look for his value to even out slightly, and Steve Breaston’s to stay consistent. Remember the Cardinals throw the ball 60% of the time and Breaston is a primary kick returner, too. (Even with that, Tim Hightower has been the touchdown hawk for the Cards, so don’t count on blowup numbers for Breaston.)

There are some other key dudes back from injury that will change value around the league:

Brandon Stokely looks set to take the field in Denver after a concussion and has been seen as “the best slot receiver in the game” according to teammates. Trouble is with the return of Tony Scheffler and Eddie Royal as well, Stokely won’t get the lovely looks you want. He should be solid coming off the bye week, though, and look for Cutler to light it up against the Dolphins after an embarrassing loss to the Pats. (Jay Cutler has a huge ego…shhh, don’t tell him I told you, even though he wants you to know.)

Brandon Lloyd hit the practice field this week for the Bears. After a knee injury in the Philly game, Kyle Orton lost his most talented prospect. With Orton on the rise, the Bears coming off the bye and looking at Detroit at home, anyone on the Bears might be a good pickup. Keep your eye on his status though; if the knee goes south he will likely wait another week, then Rasheid Davis is probably your best bet in Chicago.

Joey Galloway, back in the Bay. This is great news for a Bucs’ team that has yet to establish an offensive identity. Galloway has not made much noise yet, because he is still splitting time with Antonio Bryant and even Ike Hillard. Joey Galloway is a beast though and has wheels, when his timing returns with Garcia he will find big gains for a Bucs’ team that really can’t run the ball consistently.

Sidney Rice looks like he will be back and healthy for the Vikings this week after struggling to get to 100% with a knee injury. He is the number two wide receiver in Minnesota and will be in the game this week against Houston.

Blow ups in Week 8

If someone in your league hasn’t found Donnie Avery, yet. Get him. I think that goes without saying. The Rams, it turns out, know how to play football and Donnie Avery is a beast.

Ted Ginn Jr. might be more likely to still be floating around in some leagues. The Ohio State alum proved that Chad Pennington has a target on the rise in Miami. He’s still a risk for a big start but will certainly start to show up more, so get him while you can.

Finally, David Garrard might have a target. Reggie Williams might be the go-to in Jacksonville after starting the season with an injury. Plus, Matt Jones can’t stay off the white horse and is looking at a suspension and looking skinnier, I might add.

Be wary of your “studs”

T.O. is losing value with every snap Brad Johnson takes and every move Jerry Jones makes. It’s like a bad Sting ballad. His fantasy stud status is real questionable with this team struggling like it has. Don’t be afraid to sit him if you have a viable option to back him up. On the road in New York won’t be a trip the boys want to remember on Monday morning.

Plaxico Burress is a virus, a virus that Tom Coughlin hates and Eli Manning can avoid. The Giants want to keep this guy as distant from the core of their team as possible and with other receiving options for Eli – Steve Smith, Domenik Hixon, Kevin Boss and even Derrick Ward – he can find someone else open to do the job who likes playing there. Plaxico Burress had 3 catches for 15 yards last week against the Steelers, and while he gets looks in the red zone, the Giants are good enough to stay away from him if they need to.

Questions? Thoughts? Leave them in the comment thread below and let’s discuss.

(For additional Fantasy Football Week 9 information, also check out the Week 9 Fire and Ice Fantasy Football Forum and the Week 9 Fantasy Football Sleeper Focus.)

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