UFC 99 The Comeback

Broadcast Live from the Lanxess Arena in Germany

Saturday June 13, 3pm EST live and replay at 10pm EST

Rich “Ace” Franklin -145 Vs. Wanderlei “The Ax Murder” Silva +105

I would not touch these lines. “Ace” lost his last fight against Dan Henderson, no big deal. His other 2 UFC losses come at the hands of one Anderson SIlva, also nothing to be ashamed of. Wande has lost 2 of his last three UFC fights. One, a questionable decision to Liddell, the other a highlight reel KO at the hands of Rampage. The reason I want nothing to do with this fight is because Wanderlei is fighting for his career. He is a guy who is backed against a corner. Dana White has said that the Chuck Liddell forced retirement could be in the cards for Silva if he drops this fight.

Another twist in this fight is Rich Franklin’s training partner for this fight. The man that has handed him two UFC losses, Anderson Silva. Anderson and Wanderlei used to be training partners, they had a fall out and now cant seem to stand each other. Right now Rich is not only training with the best in the world, but he is training with someone who has spent a great deal of time with his opponent.

One last thing to consider for this fight is it’s weight class. This is a catch-weight battle at 195. It’s heavier then Franklin usually fights at, and lighter then Silva. Now, does Franklin hold the advantage from not having to cut as much as he usually does, or does “The Ax Murder” hold the edge by not carrying as much weight as his body is used to.

MY PICK: Wanderlei Silva, KO RD 1 (if he doesn’t end it early, Franklin will take it)

Cheick Kongo +150 Vs. Cain Velasquez -185

If I could bet on one aspect of this fight it wouldn’t be the winner, but how many times Kongo “Kongo’s” Velasquez. As I have mentioned, being “Kongoed” means to get hit in the groin. My friends and I have turned all Kongo fights into drinking games. Every hit to the man berrys is a drink.

Now Cain is an up and commer in the sport. He appears to want to become a KO artists, but I dont think he has what it takes to get Kongoed and keep moving. He’s young, so I dont see this as a major setback to him, and if he can turn in a good preformance, ,it could be good for his career.

Kongo is looking for a title shot, to get it he needs to make this a highlight reel victory. Be it KO or tap out, this needs to become his “Mr. Hollands Opus” if he hopes to move up in the Heavyweight ranks and be more then a gate keeper.

MY PICK: Cheick Kongo Via TKO after a hard punch to the junk

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic -500 Vs. Mostapha Al Turk +300

As much as I hate to say this, it might not be a bad idea to put about %10 of what you would normally bet in a fight on Al Turk. I am picking Cro Cop, but I am also an unbiased Cro Cop fanboy. The fact of the matter is Cro Cop hasn’t fought anyone except Alistair Overeem (which he won via DQ due to shots to the junk despite being manhandled the entire fight) since last UFC stint.

Cro Cops last UFC run ended the same way Al Turks started, getting hit in the dick by and loosing to Cheick Kongo. Al Turk has a great build, a pro-wrestling made name, and a few believers. Cro Cop has special forces training, the entire Croatian Government, and me behind him.

MY PICK: MIrko Cro Cop Via Kick to the head.

UFC betting is reaching a fever pitch with UFC 100 coming up next month, but first, UFC 99 takes place this Saturday in Cologne, Germany.

Here are the particulars, via the UFC 99 page on Wikipedia:

UFC 99 Preview

• UFC 99 Date: Saturday, June 13, 2009
• UFC 99 Location: Cologne, Germany
• UFC 99 TV: Pay Per View

UFC 99 Main Card:

• Catchweight: Rick Franklin vs Wanderlei Silva
• Heavyweight: Cheick Kongo vs Cain Velasquez
• Welterweight: Mike Swick vs Ben Saunders
• Welterweight: Marcus Davis vs Dan Hardy
• Lightweight: Spencer Fisher vs Caol Uno
• Heavyweight: Mostapha Al-turk vs Mirko Filipovic

(Follow the link to view the UFC 99 preliminary card.)

Rich Franklin and Wanderlei Silva are the headliners for the UFC’s first trip to Germany, but there are also a couple of other MMA betting bouts to consider in your offshore sportsbook.

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RICH FRANKLIN VS WANDERLEI SILVA ODDS AND PREDICTION

Franklin (24-4-0-1), the former middleweight champ, is a slight -140 sports wagering favorite against Silva (22-9-1-1), who has lost four of his last five fights. This will be held at a catchweight of 195 pounds, where Franklin will have a reach advantage but Silva may have a power edge. Franklin is coming off a split-decision loss to Dan Henderson at UFC 93, which was his first loss to an American as his three previous losses had come at the hands of Brazilian fighters (two to Anderson Silva, one to Lyoto Machida). Silva will surely come out swinging for the fences, while Franklin will do the same, but he has an edge on the ground as well.

Franklin-Silva UFC 99 Prediction: Rich Franklin. He’s more well-rounded and Silva has lost a step.



CAIN VELASQUEZ VS CHEICK KONGO ODDS AND PREDICTION

Cain Velasquez (5-0) is a -200 favorite in your sportsbook against Cheick Kongo (14-4-1), and the 26-year-old Velasquez is one of the top up-and-comers in MMA, as all five of his fights have come by knockout, four of which came in the first round. Both of these fighters have extreme knockout power, and it’s difficult to imagine this fight going more than two rounds. Kongo replaces Heath Herring, who beat Kongo at UFC 82, and if he manages to beat Velasquez, he’ll fight the winner of the Brock Lesnar-Frank Mir heavyweight title bout which takes place at UFC 100.

Velasquez-Kongo UFC 99 Prediction: Cheick Kongo. Velasquez will be a star but he’s not ready to face a fighter of Kongo’s caliber.

MIKE SWICK VS BEN SAUNDERS ODDS AND PREDICTION

Mike Swick (13-2) is the UFC betting favorite for this welterweight tilt at -225 over Ben Saunders (7-0-2), and both are known for appearing on the “Ultimate Fighter” television show. Swick won his fight in the first UF season, dropping Alex Schoenauer after 20 seconds to earn the nickname “Quick.” Saunders defeated Dan Barrera in the sixth UF season, and he’s improved each fight since joining UFC. Both have kickboxing backgrounds, while Swick has more power, but Saunders is more well-rounded. If he can get Swick on the ground, Saunders could be in line for a UFC betting upset.

Swick-Saunders UFC 99 Prediction: Ben Saunders. This could be a big step in a special career.

Sunday June 6, 9pm ET on Versus WEC presents Brown Vs Faber 2

This is my pick for fight of the weekend. No matter how it ends, as long as it happens no other fight holds the interest this does. Urijah Faber is 22-2 and was considered an unstoppable featherweight until last November when Mike Brown man handled him for just over 2 minutes then scored a TKO victory. Both fighters have fought once since then. Both scored first round submission victories, and both plan on doing the same in this fight.

While both fighters are determined and skilled, I just cant see Faber loosing this. In his last fight (a rematch Vs. Jens Pulver) Faber came to the ring with an air of victory. He could have been fighting Brock Lesner that day and won. His will was so strong that it came through the TV and let you know, as soon as you saw him, that he was going to win decisively. That being said, Browns domination of Faber in the first fight was surprising. Faber never stood a chance on that day and Brown seemed to have his number. I really hope this fight goes past the first round.

Saturday June 5, ,10pm ET on Showtime Strikeforce presents Lawler Vs Shelds

For me, the headlining match isn’t the biggest match on this card. While I fully expect Robbie Lawler and Jack Shelds to tear the house down and have a great fight (who could forget the two EliteXC contest between Lawler and Smith?) I am much more interested in the match between Andrei Arlovski and Brett Rogers. This could very well be showcasing 2 of the three best Heavyweights outside of the UFC (Fedor being the other), maybe I am a little overzealous to name Rogers as a top heavyweight, but that dude has potential to be a star. I believe him to be much better the Josh Barnett (whom Fedor is fighting in August) and I can see him having a very bright future in MMA. I hope Arlovski can hold Rogers off, but I’m not sure I can see it happening. No matter the outcome of this fight, the UFC needs to do all it can to sign whoever wins.

This Strikeforce event will also showcase someone who is becoming a begrudging favorite of mine, Nick Diaz. He will be fighting Scott Smith in what will probably turn into a stand up war. Smith has a habit of being in the most intense battles in MMA. His chin seems to be made of adamantium and his fist are of steel. Nick Diaz however is a BJJ black belt who fancies himself as a boxer. In my opinion, the smart move would be for Diaz to take Smith down and try to submit him, but I don’t think he will. This fight wont go all 3 rounds, but however long it does last, it will be a war. Diaz will trash talk, and maybe even flip the bird. Diazs’ brother (UFC fighter Nate Diaz) will stand on the outside talking smack and almost definitely flipping the bird. Smith will take a ton of punishment, seem to be knocked out, then comeback again and again. In the end I don’t know who will win. I am starting to really enjoy the side show that is the Diaz family, but I also really pull for Smith who seems to be a good guy with a family to feed. After this fight is over I just hope both fighters aren’t too hurt and can move on to their next fights soon.

While UFC 99 doesn’t happen for another week, it hasn’t exactly been quiet over at the Zuffa offices. For those of you who don’t know, The Ultimate Fighter 10 started filming this last week and the big news coming out of the taping doesn’t concern either Rashad Evans or Quintin “Ramapge” Jackson who are the coaches, nor does it concern the reported 4 former NFL players who are on the show this season. It seems that Kimbo Slice has won the “Brass Balls” award for the week by joining the cast of TUF 10. This is a guy who was criticized by UFC President Dana White almost none stop just over a year ago as being a freak show. White always stated that Kimbo could come on TUF if he ever wanted to get a UFC contract, well it appears Kimbo decided to take him up on it.

I am pulling for Slice. If that guy can get his head together and get and sort of condition he could be really good for MMA. He was in the 1st and 3rd most watched events in the history of MMA and has ridiculous charisma . With the UFC in need of some, what I call, placeholder stars no one could be better for them then Kimbo.

For you experienced degenerates who know how to read money lines, skip to the next paragraph, the rest of you read on. A money line has a + or a – in front of it. If there is a + it means that person or team is

supposed to lose. If there is a – then they are the favorite to win. The number following the + or -

indicates what you would win or lose. A typical lines reads like this: Mike Tyson -200 Vs Little Mac +700. That means if you bet on Tyson (the favorite), and he won, you would have to wager $200 in order to win $100. If you bet $100 on Little Mac (the underdog), and he won, you would win $700. Hope that helps.

I gave some predictions at the beginning of the month, if you want to check them out go here. Now I am going to look at the top three lines, give my opinion, pick an upset, then post the lines for the rest of the card.

Quintin “Rampage” Jackson +110 V. Wanderlei “The Ax Murder” Silva -140 I keep seeing this line change. Everything points to Rampage getting his third beating by Wande, but something tells me he is going to win this fight. He feels like his title was stolen from him, he dropped his old manager, went crazy, got himself together, joined a new fight camp in England, and now has what Micky would call “that Eye of the Tiger” again. Wanderlie on the other hand never lost his urge to … well… Ax Murder. He had a highlight reel knockout of Keith Jardine last time he fought, but before that he seemed to be on his way down. Silva does have two, count ‘em, two brutal KO and TKO victories over Jackson back in the Pride F/C years and he hasn’t recently been involved with tabloid scandals.

This line is so close it’s not really worth betting on Rampage unless you feel he is a lock. With Silva having been around the block a few times I wouldn’t feel right putting my money on him either.

My Pick: Rampage wins and makes some people very little money.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (Interm Champ) -350 Vs. Frank Mir +275 I’m not supposed to like Frank Mir. He’s cocky, doesn’t train hard, and makes light of serious situations. But damn it, he’s made me laugh a lot. As a result I hate to see him face Nogueria. There is just nothing funny about a man who can be beaten within one breath of death, then pull out a submission victory and do that on a regular basis. Nogueira is a freak of nature, the fact the guy can walk is a testament to how tough his skull is. Tim SIlvia pounded it until I though his hands were broke, and then what happened? Nog made that fat f… guy tap. Keep in mind, the winner of this fight will soon be facing Brock Lesnar to unify the heavyweight title.

The line on this is what it should be, I’d bet on the return of Corey Haim before I’d put money on Mir. Sure it’s tempting to throw a few bucks on him, but that’s money you’ll never see again.

My Pick: Big Nog chokes Mir out in 3.

Forrest Griffin (Champ) -130 Vs. Rashad Evans EVEN MONEY Wow, This is a close line. Ultimate Fighter Season 1 winner Vs. Ultimate Fighter Season 2 winner. This is getting my pick for fight of the night. I think Rashad Evans is turning into a hell of a fighter, and I think Forrest Griffin is a hell of a fighter. There is going to be a lot of take-downs followed by scrambles and stand up. Forrest has proven to be one of the toughest SOB’s in the history of the UFC. Everything from his T.U.F. final fight versus Stephen Bonner and his near upset over Tito Ortiz, to his controversial championship win over Rampage has proven that Forrest is the real deal. Rashad Evans has also proven himself worthy of the UFC and this title fight by taking Tito to a judges Draw and then knocking the hell outta Chuck Liddell.

If you bet on Rashad, and he wins, you double your money. To make any money on Forrest you don’t have to bet much more. This one is close enough you’re probably better served spending your gambling money on beer and just watching.

My Pick: Forrest retains by judges decision.

My Pick for random upset of the night goes to:

Mostapha Al Turk +250 Vs. Cheick Kongo -325 My only real reasoning for this is that Chuck seems overrated to me. Part of that is due to his fight against one of my favorite fighters (Cro Cop) in which he won after hitting Cro Cop in the junk about 8 times a round for three rounds. He has been impressive in one fight since then, but I have read some minor rumblings about Al Turk being an up and commer. So, don’t take my word for it, but I think Chuck “Dick Punch” Kongo goes down in round 1.

Here are the rest of the lines in no paticular order:

Yushin Okami -350 Vs. Dean Lister +275

Matt Hamill -500 Vs. Reese Andy +300

Ryo Chonan -170 Vs. Brad Blackburn+140

Dan Evensen +200 Vs. Pat Barry-250

CB Dollaway -150 Vs. Mike Massenzio +120

Antoni Hardonk -365 Vs. Mike Wessel +285