UFC 103 Preview: The co-main events

While we await the NFL week 2 matchups on Saturday, we can treat ourselves to some exciting UFC action. UFC 103 lacks title fights but its two main events feature big boys who swing for the fences. Forget Mayweather-Marquez; Franklin/Belfort and Cro Cop/Dos Santos will give you more bang for your buck.

CATCHWEIGHT BOUT (195 lbs)

Rich Franklin (25-4) vs Vitor Belfort (18-8)

UFC 103 fight card odds: Franklin -155, Belfort +125

After four years away from the Octagon, power puncher Vitor Belfort makes his highly anticipated return. He broke into the UFC over a decade ago as a teenager, earning the moniker “The Phenom” because of his vicious knockout ability. He rose to prominence and battled legends like Randy Couture, Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz, though he came out the loser in almost all those fights. The former UFC light heavyweight champ spent the last four years destroying lesser-known fighters and has looked particularly strong since dropping to 185 pounds.

He’ll have a tough opponent in the reliable, entertaining Rich Franklin. The former UFC middleweight champ throws opponents off with his southpaw stance and has true knockout power. His submission defense is outstanding and his great fitness helps him outlast opponents. His only losses are to Anderson Silva, Lyoto Machida and Dan Henderson; Franklin is an elite fighter.

Though Belfort’s power makes him intimidating, he hasn’t fought anyone relevant for years. He’ll be rusty against the smart, energetic Franklin. Go with the more battle-ready fighter in your sports picks.

Pick: Rich Franklin

HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (25-6-2) vs Junior Dos Santos (8-1)

UFC 103 fight card odds: Filipovic +110, Dos Santos -140

To longtime fight fans, Mirko Cro Cop is a heavyweight legend, widely considered the best pure striker ever in his weight class. In his heyday, he was known for brutal head-kick knockouts and beat star fighters like Josh Barnett, Mark Coleman and Wanderlei Silva. New UFC fans, however, aren’t impressed with what they’ve seen since Cro Cop joined the UFC. Now 35, he’s just 2-2 in the Octagon and most famous for getting knocked out by a Gabriel Gonzaga kick. After a two-year absence, he’s anxious to prove he can still contend.

I’m betting management of the UFC wants a Cro Cop victory for the sake of the sport, but Junior Dos Santos has something to say about that. The up-and-comer has major knockout power, never having fought into round two. Cro Cop has outstanding takedown defense but Dos Santos has the ground advantage if he gets Cro Cop down thanks to his purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

As is the case with Belfort, we should make Cro Cop earn back our trust. Bet on powerful Dos Santos, who is capable of ending the fight quickly.

Pick: Junior Dos Santos

As the sport grows in popularity, fans demand an image. Basketball has seen guys like Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Kobe, and LeBron. Football has boasted poster-boys such as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in recent times.

So who is, or may become, the face of MMA?

Follow the link to StubHub for great deals on UFC tickets

True MMA loyalists may say Fedor Emilenenko. While I would agree that pound-for-pound he may be the best fighter in MMA, he has yet to join the bandwagon of what has become the juggernaut of MMA, The UFC.

So, looking at the talent that seems to ooze from the UFC, who could it possibly be?

How about a guy who after just 4 professional fights was given a shot at, and won, the UFC Heavyweight Title?

That Guy is Brock Lesnar.

Brock was an All-American wrestler in his college days at Minnesota, and transformed himself quickly into what became one of the most popular wrestlers in Vince McMahon’s version of Motley Crue’s White Trash Circus, the WWE. He was “crowned” the youngest champion in WWE history, and given  the nickname “The Next Big Thing”.

But Lesnar walked away from the WWE in 2004 for a short stint in the NFL as a lineman for the Minnesota Vikings. After being cut before the end of the preseason, Lesnar contemplated his next move, eventually turning to MMA.

His first UFC fight pitted him against UFC headliner Frank Mir, Heavyweight Champion, in the UFC. He came out firing, but inexperience took over as Frank Mir would eventually submit him with a knee bar in the first round.

Lesnar would bounce back quickly, defeating Heath Herring and Randy Couture, securing himself a rematch against Frank Mir at UFC 100, this time for Mir’s title.

Lesnar learned from his mistakes in his first bout with Mir, and would control Mir on the ground, eventually securing a win via TKO. Lesnar was the champ after only four fights in the UFC.

He then made a string of controversial comments and gestures: flipping off the crowd, talking trash to Mir, mentioning that he may even “get on top of his wife” later that evening, and putting the cherry on top by denouncing the main sponsor for UFC 100, Bud Light, by saying “they won’t pay me nothin’” then proceding to promote his sponsor, Coors Light. Lesnar would later apologize for his actions.

Here’s the point: agree or disagree, Brock Lesnar has become the face of the UFC, and in turn, the face of MMA. Whether you love him or hate him, that’s the point. He’s young, He’s exciting. He’s controversial. Don’t expect any of that to change any time soon.

Everyone knows who he is, and whether he is liked or not does not matter. This truly makes Brock Lesnar — already The Next Big Thing — the face of MMA.

That’s not that case at the UFC’s 100th anniversary of events. Dana White is making a big splash and a big statement – particularly to the boxing world – that UFC is deep enough to boast a card of tantalizing fights from start to finish. While we all know about the Frank Mir-Brock Lesnar, George St. Pierre-Thiago Alves, Michael Bisping-Dan Henderson breakdowns, here’s a look at some of the lesser fights on the UFC 100 odds and some predictions.

Paulo Thiago versus Jon Fitch

Fitch is basically the biggest favorite on the entire evening as the UFC odds makers are not expecting him to slip up against Thiago.

Fitch is a -410 favorite and Jon “Bones” Jones and George St. Pierre are next in line.

Fitch is a very good wrestler and he’ll be looking to take Thiago to the ground from the get-go. That’s bad news for Thiago, who doesn’t match up well in that realm.

Sports pick: Fitch

Mark Coleman versus Stephan Bonnar

How old is Mark Coleman? Put it this way: he fought in UFC 10 and is now set to fight at UFC 100. He’s lasted 90 UFC events and is one of the few athletes in all of sports that is both in the Hall of Fame and is still participating.

He’s a popular fighter but he’ll be up against a tough, savvy, desperate veteran in Stephan Bonnar. Bonnar has a tough chin and he knows that another loss would mean bad news for him in the UFC. Look for him to scrap out a tough win.

Coleman looked completely wiped by the second round of his January bout with Shogun Rua, which might mean that Coleman doesn’t even have it in him to last three rounds.

Jake O’Brien versus Jon Jones

We mentioned that Jones is one of the biggest favorites on the fight card and I’m betting management set this up as a showcase for their 21-year-old star.

Jake O’Brien is basically just a stepping stone for Jones. Jones is heading to bigger and better things and this is just another win for him.

UFC 100

• UFC 100 Date: Saturday July 11th
• UFC 100 Start Time 7pm PT/10pm ET
• UFC 100 TV: Live only on Pay Per View

UFC 100 Betting Lines and Predictions:

Brock Lesnar (Heavyweight Champion) -240 Vs. Frank Mir (Interim Heavyweight Champion) +190

It seems like only yesterday that Brock Lesnar was F-5ing the Big Show on WWE Smackdown, my how time flies. Lesnar is now 2-1 in the UFC and appears to be unstoppable. His combination of size, redneck fervor, and brute force seems to have turned him into some kind of superhuman fighting manufactured home owner.

Back in 2004 Frank Mir captured the Heavyweight Title, then was injured in a motorcycle accident. It was two years before he returned to the octagon, and two more years before he returned to title holder status. The man is a submission expert and seems to have figured out how to win on his feet.

Mir welcomed Lesnar to the UFC by allowing Brock to pound on his face then making him tap out to an ankle lock in the first round. Brock hates Mir for that and for not wearing Death Clutch T-shirts in every interview.

What makes this pick problematic for me is the first fight. Mir said, in a few interviews, he was going to wait for Brock to expose his legs and then attack them because wrestlers tend to forget about them. While Mir was getting pounded by Lesnars meet hooks, he found Brock’s legs, and then attacked them. That says a lot to me about both guys. One, Lesner was relaying on his power and wasn’t paying attention to Mir. Two, Mir actually gameplans.

My Pick: Brock Lesnar… though I don’t feel good about it.

Georges St-Pierre (Welterweight Champion) -300 Vs. Thiago Alves+220

The big news coming into this fight is that Thiago Alves is near making weight. Yeah, nothing about the actual match up. I guess that becomes a big deal when you cut weight to fight at 170 but walk around over 200lbs. Also, he has a history of missing weight for big fights (ok one big fight, but it was the one which gave him this fight).

Georges St-Pierre, the man is invincible. He is like MMAs’ Rambo. He will out wrestle a wrestler, submit a BJJ blackbet, KO and standup fighter, and then shake your hand, bow and wish you the best after he wins. After it’s all said and done he will have probably boinked your sister and you’ll shrug it off saying “Well, that guys good.”

This is where I usually give the underdog some kind of fighting chance then mention what the favorite does well. Alves is good at eating and knocking people out; GSP is great at everything else. This money line may be too close (and that line will decide my fate when Alves hits a flash KO and GSP falls while cursing my name)

My Pick: Georges St-Pierre

Jon Jones -450 Vs. Jake O’Brien +325

Yeah there are some bigger fights on the main card like Fitch Vs. Thiago, the TUF coach fight of Henderson Vs. Bisping, or the two grizzled vets Coleman Vs. Bonnar, but this fight is much more interesting. Not because it will be a back and forth battle between two guys fighting for their livelihoods; or because the two men hate each other and it will quickly divulge into an old fashion slug fest. This is interesting because one of these guys is two fights away from being a headliner, and the other guy is from my hometown.

Jon “Bones” Jones is one good opponent or two more wins away from being the UFC’s next big star. He’s only 21 years old but he is already 8-0 in MMA. In two UFC fights he has pounded his way to decision victories. His last fight should have ended in a spectacular KO via a spinning elbow, but Stephen Bonnar somehow stumbled his way back into a defensive position and was able to make it through the rest of the match while getting manhandled. This guy is fast, powerful, and a showman.

Jake O’Brien isn’t exacly someone to overlook though. He had a lot of success as a heavyweight until he ran into the Pitbull Andrei Arlovski. He suffered one more defeat after that and has decided to drop weight to fight in the stacked Light-Heavyweight division. If Jones wasn’t such a young phenom, I would expect to see something out of O’Brien. Though this fight isn’t on the main card, I would look forward to seeing it.

My Pick: Jon “Bones” Jones

HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
Brock Lesnar (3-1) vs Frank Mir (12-3)
UFC odds: -225, Mir +185

The wait for the big rematch is almost over. What makes Lesnar/Mir II so interesting is that both fighters have evolved so much since their last bout that the rematch may as well feature two different fighters. Lesnar is a new-age mixed martial artist – not just a “guy who likes to fight” or a skilled competitor in one discipline who learns a few extra skills. He’s an athlete, one who learns at a seemingly geometric rate and seemingly can do whatever he wants to. From collegiate wrestling champ, to WWE superstar, to NFL roster member, to interim UFC heavyweight champion, Lesnar is a ridiculous physical specimen. He has tremendous wrestling ability and punching power and is slowly but surely developing his ground defense.

He’ll need that against Frank Mir, one of the heavyweight division’s best Jiu-JItsu specialists. It’s no secret that Mir is great on the ground – he proved that when he submitted Lesnar in their first meeting – but Mir is more dangerous now because he’s added strong boxing to his repertoire. No one saw his upset of Minotauro Nogueira coming; Mir’s surprisingly technical boxing helped him become the first man to knock out Nogueira.

Since this fight is so tough to call based on skills, athleticism is the tiebreaker. If Lesnar’s ground game keeps improving, he’s virtually unstoppable; no one can physically dominate him and it’s a tall order to knock him out. He’ll overpower Mir and become the undisputed champ.

Pick: Brock Lesnar

WELTERWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
Georges St-Pierre (18-2) vs Thiago Alves (22-4)
UFC odds: St-Pierre -260, Alves +200

The welterweight title fight seems like a mismatch to some fight fans making sports predictions, but don’t be so sure. Challenger Thiago Alves has one thing GSP has never faced before: raw striking power. St-Pierre, considered by some the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world, had his chin called into question when Matt Serra – not a hard hitter – famously upset him in their first bout. As great as GSP is, all his notable victims – Matt Hughes, BJ Penn, Jon Fitch, to name a few – are known more for their ground work than heavy hands.

Thiago “the Pit-bull” Alves thus poses a new challenge for the champ. With his aggression and deadly Muay Thai knees and kicks, Alves can knock opponents out at any time. On the flip side, St-Pierre is among the best strikers in the sport too. He can just as easily drop Alves and he’s far superior on the ground. St-Pierre, a true champ, also prepares for fights like no one else. He’ll be ready for anything Alves throws his way and you can bet he’ll have a set gameplan entering the fight.

Anything can happen and GSP won’t have an easy time, but he’ll still pull out a victory. Going against him is poor betting management.

Pick: Georges St-Pierre

UFC 99 The Comeback

Broadcast Live from the Lanxess Arena in Germany

Saturday June 13, 3pm EST live and replay at 10pm EST

Rich “Ace” Franklin -145 Vs. Wanderlei “The Ax Murder” Silva +105

I would not touch these lines. “Ace” lost his last fight against Dan Henderson, no big deal. His other 2 UFC losses come at the hands of one Anderson SIlva, also nothing to be ashamed of. Wande has lost 2 of his last three UFC fights. One, a questionable decision to Liddell, the other a highlight reel KO at the hands of Rampage. The reason I want nothing to do with this fight is because Wanderlei is fighting for his career. He is a guy who is backed against a corner. Dana White has said that the Chuck Liddell forced retirement could be in the cards for Silva if he drops this fight.

Another twist in this fight is Rich Franklin’s training partner for this fight. The man that has handed him two UFC losses, Anderson Silva. Anderson and Wanderlei used to be training partners, they had a fall out and now cant seem to stand each other. Right now Rich is not only training with the best in the world, but he is training with someone who has spent a great deal of time with his opponent.

One last thing to consider for this fight is it’s weight class. This is a catch-weight battle at 195. It’s heavier then Franklin usually fights at, and lighter then Silva. Now, does Franklin hold the advantage from not having to cut as much as he usually does, or does “The Ax Murder” hold the edge by not carrying as much weight as his body is used to.

MY PICK: Wanderlei Silva, KO RD 1 (if he doesn’t end it early, Franklin will take it)

Cheick Kongo +150 Vs. Cain Velasquez -185

If I could bet on one aspect of this fight it wouldn’t be the winner, but how many times Kongo “Kongo’s” Velasquez. As I have mentioned, being “Kongoed” means to get hit in the groin. My friends and I have turned all Kongo fights into drinking games. Every hit to the man berrys is a drink.

Now Cain is an up and commer in the sport. He appears to want to become a KO artists, but I dont think he has what it takes to get Kongoed and keep moving. He’s young, so I dont see this as a major setback to him, and if he can turn in a good preformance, ,it could be good for his career.

Kongo is looking for a title shot, to get it he needs to make this a highlight reel victory. Be it KO or tap out, this needs to become his “Mr. Hollands Opus” if he hopes to move up in the Heavyweight ranks and be more then a gate keeper.

MY PICK: Cheick Kongo Via TKO after a hard punch to the junk

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic -500 Vs. Mostapha Al Turk +300

As much as I hate to say this, it might not be a bad idea to put about %10 of what you would normally bet in a fight on Al Turk. I am picking Cro Cop, but I am also an unbiased Cro Cop fanboy. The fact of the matter is Cro Cop hasn’t fought anyone except Alistair Overeem (which he won via DQ due to shots to the junk despite being manhandled the entire fight) since last UFC stint.

Cro Cops last UFC run ended the same way Al Turks started, getting hit in the dick by and loosing to Cheick Kongo. Al Turk has a great build, a pro-wrestling made name, and a few believers. Cro Cop has special forces training, the entire Croatian Government, and me behind him.

MY PICK: MIrko Cro Cop Via Kick to the head.

UFC betting is reaching a fever pitch with UFC 100 coming up next month, but first, UFC 99 takes place this Saturday in Cologne, Germany.

Here are the particulars, via the UFC 99 page on Wikipedia:

UFC 99 Preview

• UFC 99 Date: Saturday, June 13, 2009
• UFC 99 Location: Cologne, Germany
• UFC 99 TV: Pay Per View

UFC 99 Main Card:

• Catchweight: Rick Franklin vs Wanderlei Silva
• Heavyweight: Cheick Kongo vs Cain Velasquez
• Welterweight: Mike Swick vs Ben Saunders
• Welterweight: Marcus Davis vs Dan Hardy
• Lightweight: Spencer Fisher vs Caol Uno
• Heavyweight: Mostapha Al-turk vs Mirko Filipovic

(Follow the link to view the UFC 99 preliminary card.)

Rich Franklin and Wanderlei Silva are the headliners for the UFC’s first trip to Germany, but there are also a couple of other MMA betting bouts to consider in your offshore sportsbook.

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RICH FRANKLIN VS WANDERLEI SILVA ODDS AND PREDICTION

Franklin (24-4-0-1), the former middleweight champ, is a slight -140 sports wagering favorite against Silva (22-9-1-1), who has lost four of his last five fights. This will be held at a catchweight of 195 pounds, where Franklin will have a reach advantage but Silva may have a power edge. Franklin is coming off a split-decision loss to Dan Henderson at UFC 93, which was his first loss to an American as his three previous losses had come at the hands of Brazilian fighters (two to Anderson Silva, one to Lyoto Machida). Silva will surely come out swinging for the fences, while Franklin will do the same, but he has an edge on the ground as well.

Franklin-Silva UFC 99 Prediction: Rich Franklin. He’s more well-rounded and Silva has lost a step.



CAIN VELASQUEZ VS CHEICK KONGO ODDS AND PREDICTION

Cain Velasquez (5-0) is a -200 favorite in your sportsbook against Cheick Kongo (14-4-1), and the 26-year-old Velasquez is one of the top up-and-comers in MMA, as all five of his fights have come by knockout, four of which came in the first round. Both of these fighters have extreme knockout power, and it’s difficult to imagine this fight going more than two rounds. Kongo replaces Heath Herring, who beat Kongo at UFC 82, and if he manages to beat Velasquez, he’ll fight the winner of the Brock Lesnar-Frank Mir heavyweight title bout which takes place at UFC 100.

Velasquez-Kongo UFC 99 Prediction: Cheick Kongo. Velasquez will be a star but he’s not ready to face a fighter of Kongo’s caliber.

MIKE SWICK VS BEN SAUNDERS ODDS AND PREDICTION

Mike Swick (13-2) is the UFC betting favorite for this welterweight tilt at -225 over Ben Saunders (7-0-2), and both are known for appearing on the “Ultimate Fighter” television show. Swick won his fight in the first UF season, dropping Alex Schoenauer after 20 seconds to earn the nickname “Quick.” Saunders defeated Dan Barrera in the sixth UF season, and he’s improved each fight since joining UFC. Both have kickboxing backgrounds, while Swick has more power, but Saunders is more well-rounded. If he can get Swick on the ground, Saunders could be in line for a UFC betting upset.

Swick-Saunders UFC 99 Prediction: Ben Saunders. This could be a big step in a special career.

Sunday June 6, 9pm ET on Versus WEC presents Brown Vs Faber 2

This is my pick for fight of the weekend. No matter how it ends, as long as it happens no other fight holds the interest this does. Urijah Faber is 22-2 and was considered an unstoppable featherweight until last November when Mike Brown man handled him for just over 2 minutes then scored a TKO victory. Both fighters have fought once since then. Both scored first round submission victories, and both plan on doing the same in this fight.

While both fighters are determined and skilled, I just cant see Faber loosing this. In his last fight (a rematch Vs. Jens Pulver) Faber came to the ring with an air of victory. He could have been fighting Brock Lesner that day and won. His will was so strong that it came through the TV and let you know, as soon as you saw him, that he was going to win decisively. That being said, Browns domination of Faber in the first fight was surprising. Faber never stood a chance on that day and Brown seemed to have his number. I really hope this fight goes past the first round.

Saturday June 5, ,10pm ET on Showtime Strikeforce presents Lawler Vs Shelds

For me, the headlining match isn’t the biggest match on this card. While I fully expect Robbie Lawler and Jack Shelds to tear the house down and have a great fight (who could forget the two EliteXC contest between Lawler and Smith?) I am much more interested in the match between Andrei Arlovski and Brett Rogers. This could very well be showcasing 2 of the three best Heavyweights outside of the UFC (Fedor being the other), maybe I am a little overzealous to name Rogers as a top heavyweight, but that dude has potential to be a star. I believe him to be much better the Josh Barnett (whom Fedor is fighting in August) and I can see him having a very bright future in MMA. I hope Arlovski can hold Rogers off, but I’m not sure I can see it happening. No matter the outcome of this fight, the UFC needs to do all it can to sign whoever wins.

This Strikeforce event will also showcase someone who is becoming a begrudging favorite of mine, Nick Diaz. He will be fighting Scott Smith in what will probably turn into a stand up war. Smith has a habit of being in the most intense battles in MMA. His chin seems to be made of adamantium and his fist are of steel. Nick Diaz however is a BJJ black belt who fancies himself as a boxer. In my opinion, the smart move would be for Diaz to take Smith down and try to submit him, but I don’t think he will. This fight wont go all 3 rounds, but however long it does last, it will be a war. Diaz will trash talk, and maybe even flip the bird. Diazs’ brother (UFC fighter Nate Diaz) will stand on the outside talking smack and almost definitely flipping the bird. Smith will take a ton of punishment, seem to be knocked out, then comeback again and again. In the end I don’t know who will win. I am starting to really enjoy the side show that is the Diaz family, but I also really pull for Smith who seems to be a good guy with a family to feed. After this fight is over I just hope both fighters aren’t too hurt and can move on to their next fights soon.

While UFC 99 doesn’t happen for another week, it hasn’t exactly been quiet over at the Zuffa offices. For those of you who don’t know, The Ultimate Fighter 10 started filming this last week and the big news coming out of the taping doesn’t concern either Rashad Evans or Quintin “Ramapge” Jackson who are the coaches, nor does it concern the reported 4 former NFL players who are on the show this season. It seems that Kimbo Slice has won the “Brass Balls” award for the week by joining the cast of TUF 10. This is a guy who was criticized by UFC President Dana White almost none stop just over a year ago as being a freak show. White always stated that Kimbo could come on TUF if he ever wanted to get a UFC contract, well it appears Kimbo decided to take him up on it.

I am pulling for Slice. If that guy can get his head together and get and sort of condition he could be really good for MMA. He was in the 1st and 3rd most watched events in the history of MMA and has ridiculous charisma . With the UFC in need of some, what I call, placeholder stars no one could be better for them then Kimbo.

Lets get the where’s and whens out of the way right now:

• UFC 98 Date and Start Time: May 23, 2009 at 7:00 pm PT / 10:00 pm ET
• UFC 98 Viewing: PPV
• UFC 98 Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
• UFC 98 Tickets: Buy & Sell UFC 98 Tickets at StubHub
• UFC Gear: Click Here to Get Up to 65% off at the UFC Store!
• UFC Gear: UFC Store Best Sellers – Click here to check it out!

I have been doing my research on this event for the last month and I am still not sure how these lines came to be, so consider this me going head to head against the odds makers. Also interesting about this event: the number of times the line up has changed. There have been six big named fighters preciously scheduled to fight here and each one has gotten injured causing a scramble to fill in spots. As a result I am only making two predictions.

(If you don’t understand how to read betting lines, go here and read an overly long explanation I wrote a long time ago involving Mike Tyson’s Punch Out)

UFC 98 Preview: Evans v Machida Odds and Prediction

“Sugar” Rashad Evans (+160) Vs. Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (-200)

These are two undefeated fighters, neither of then gets hit very much when they fight, and both have been criticized for their stand up game in the past. Also, both come off of amazing KO victories. Lyoto knocked Thiago SIlva into another dimension back at UFC 94, and Evans won the Light-Heavy title by dribbling Forrest Griffin’s head on the mat like a basketball back at UFC 92.

Lyoto’s strength is his karate. This means he works angles and counter strikes. He isn’t going to chase after Evans nor is he going to be very keen to go to the ground with him. I can see Lyoto trying to keep this standing and continuously moving away from Rashad like he has swine flu. Lyoto’s best chance at winning this fight is for it to go to decision like 4 of his 6 UFC fights have.

Evans’ strengths lay in his wrestling and his much improved stand up. He will start the fight tentative and try not to move into Lyoto’s counters. I see Rashad eventually getting frustrated and shooting in for take downs. I also see him succeeding in getting the fight to the ground. Rashad will probably try to ground and pound if that happens; scratch that, when that happens.

MY PICK: Rashad Evans TKO Round 4

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UFC 98 Preview: Hughes v Serra Odds and Prediction

Matt Hughes (-250) Vs. Matt Serra (+190)

Two old men enter, one old man leaves. That’s how I feel about this fight.

Will I watch it? Yes. Will it be fun? Maybe. But at the end of the day what does it mean?

Serra is 34 and Hughes is 35, in pro-fighter terms, that makes them both Nintendo 64’s. Sure they were fun back in their time, and yeah you can go back every now and then to play WCW Vs. NWO, but at the end of the day you would rather play the new Mario Kart.

I keep reading people picking Huges because they feel he can bully Serra around and throw him all over the ring. I see this happening a few times, but for some reason I see Hughes getting tapped out by some good old fashion Jiu-Jitsu. The last few times I have seen Hughes fight he hasn’t been the Matt of old. He has dropped 3 of his last 4 and he hasn’t fought in over a year. This is usually the place where I would mention that Serra has a win over Georges St Pierre, and look there I did it, but Hughes does also.

This fight is going to come down to which guy gets frustrated. These two hate each other. Matt Hughes is outspoken in his dislike for Serra, and Serra has made it known he is no fan of crotchety old man Hughes and his redneck ways.

MY PICK: Matt Serra Submission Round 1

Due to the aforementioned plague of injuries and the appearent curse of UFC 98 those are the only fights I have any sort of insight on. While there are a few more interesting fights, there is nothing that I find overly compelling or surprising (at least in Vegas odds). I will mention that I expect “Professor X” Xavier Foupa-Pokam to win, and I know some sites had him as a dog.

First, all of the particulars for UFC 97 Redemption:

UFC 97 Redemption Preview, Date, Time, Location, Tickets

• UFC 97 Date: April 18, 2009
• UFC 97 Time: 10:00 pm ET / 7:00 pm PT
• UFC 97 TV / viewing information: PPV Live | UFC 97 Viewing Info
• UFC 97 Location: Centre Bell, Canada
• UFC 97 Official Website: UFC 97 Redemption
• UFC 97 Lineup: UFC 97 Redemption Fight Card
• Official UFC 97 description: UFC® middleweight champion Anderson “The Spider” Silva returns to the Octagonâ„¢ on Saturday, April 18th to defend his crown against number one contender Thales Leites in the main event of UFC® 97. The pound for pound king has already defended his title more times than anyone in UFC middleweight history and will battle Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt Leites – winner of five in a row.
• UFC Tickets at StubHub: Buy and Sell Tickets to all UFC Events
• UFC 97 Tickets at StubHub: Buy and Sell UFC 97 Redemption Tickets

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UFC 97 Redemption Matchups, Odds, and Predictions

ANDERSON SILVA (23-4) VS THALES LEITES (14-1) – For UFC Middleweight Championship
Silva odds: -500
Leites odds: +350

The Silva vs Leites line is one of the most lopsided for a title fight in recent memory, and with good reason. Anderson “The Spider” Silva has been positively untouchable since winning the middleweight title off Rich Franklin, defending four times and finishing each fight before it could go to a decision. Some sports betting fans were perplexed by Silva’s last fight against Patrick Cote, during which he danced around the ring without really going on the offensive before Cote succumbed to a knee injury.

MMA betting fans should give Silva a mulligan on the Cote fight; his Muay Thai skills remain devastating and he ground game is very solid, which is important considering that challenger Thales Leites excels in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Silva will have to be careful on the ground, but this fight still won’t be close; Leites hasn’t beaten anyone of consequence in his UF C betting career, unless you count a split-decision victory over Nate Marquardt in which Marquardt was deducted two points for illegal blows.

Online betting pick: Silva -500

CHUCK LIDDELL (21-6) VS MAURICIO RUA (17-3)
Liddell odds: -175
Rua odds: +145

It may be do or die for both fighters in the Liddell vs Rua odds. Liddell is 39 and has lost three of his last four fights; among those defeats were brutal knockouts at the hands of “Rampage” Jackson and Rashad Evans. The Iceman has had a phenomenal career in MMA betting, but he’s nearing the end of the road. Could one more loss push him into retirement?

“Shogun” Rua is just 27 but he’s on the bubble too. Though immensely talented, he was out of shape and sluggish in his last fight, during which he eked out a final-round knockout over 44-year-old Mark Coleman. Dana White is questioning Rua’s dedication to the sport and there are whispers that Rua will be handed his walking papers if he doesn’t show up for this one.

According to some MMA betting pundits, Rua has rededicated himself and trained hard for this fight, which is horrible news for Liddell. Chuck has lost a step and he’ll be in over his head against an in-shape Rua, whose vicious strike combinations should overwhelm him. Bet on Rua, who offers nice value as a sportsbook “underdog” here.

Online betting pick: Rua +145

CHEICK KONGO (23-4-1) VS ANTONI HARDONK (8-4)
Kongo odds: -300
Hardonk odds: +240

This battle of gargantuan kickboxers should be a barn burner. Kongo’s UFC betting career sagged for a year or two, but the powerful Frenchman is back in a big way. He’s the more experienced fighter and, if he can avoid Hardonk’s deadly leg kicks and get close, should take him down and ground-and-pound Hardonk into oblivion. Go with the seasoned Kongo.

Online betting pick: Kongo -300

OTHER FIGHTS TO BET ON IN THE UFC 97 ODDS

Nate Quarry and Jason McDonald are two evenly matched, athletic fighters with strong ground skills, but Quarry is the more versatile fighter. Look for him to stay standing and try and knock out McDonald. David Loiseau and his trademark elbows return to UFC betting after a three-year absence; he should succeed in his return with a win over Ed Herman.

Let’s start with the news from the reigning champions of MMA, the UFC.

UFC 100 would be a huge event no matter what was on the card. The number 100 is a milestone many tried to keep MMA from reaching. Just think back to the late 90’s, when John McCain was petitioning to get MMA banned in the US, the UFC was just getting out of it’s “No Holds Barred” era, and many people viewed the sport as “human cock fighting”. Say what you will about the Feritta brothers, Dana White, and the TapouT Crew (one of whom passed away this week), but without them MMA would have never made it this far.

Just over a month ago it seemed White and company planned on relying on the number “100″ itself to sell the event. They shot down rumors of all titles being on the line that night, they made clear the superfight of our generation between Anderson Silva and Georges St. Pierre wouldn’t happen, and they had planned to have Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir have their rematch to unify the Heavyweight title at UFC 98. Well what a difference a month makes.

None of this is “official” yet, but the current plans for UFC 100 have Dan Henderson and Michael Bisping facing off in the traditional battle of Ultimate Fighter coaches, GSP is supposed to defend his title against Thiago Alves, and of course the much delayed rematch between Frank Mir and Brock Lesnar for the unification of the UFC Heavyweight Title.

While the UFC is trying to make UFC 100 something special, they still had a UFC 98 that was missing a main event. It was initially announced that if Quintin “Rampage” Jackson defeated Keith Jardine at UFC 96 he would face off with “Sugar” Rashad Evans for the UFC’s Light Heavyweight Title. Rampage defeated Jardine, had a face off with Evans immediately following the fight, and promptly had to pull out of the fight.

It appears Rampage will be undergoing surgery on his jaw to fix an injury suffered during training for his bout against Wanerlei Silva last December. Now Evans is set to face off against Lyoto Machida. While it is much to early to make predictions, I can tell you that the champion is the early underdog in this fight. Not that I would ever gamble online, but if I did, I may have already taken Evans at +160 in this one.

In order to move away from UFC news, I would like to mention that I will be attending Wrestlemania 25 on April 5th in Houston, Texas. What does this have to do with MMA you ask? Let me tell you, part of this week’s big news involved two former WWF/E champions.

Former UFC Heavyweight and WWF Intercontinental Champion Ken Shamrock was supposed to face the former WWE US and ECW World Champion Bobby Lashley at the upcoming Roy Jones Jr.-promoted Boxing/MMA March Badness event. Well, Ken Shamrock has since been suspended for a year from fighting within the US due to testing positive for steroids. Lashley is now scheduled to face off against Clay Guidas’ bigger, not-as-talented brother Jason. Lashley has come out in the last few days saying he wouldn’t mind taking the Shamrock fight to Japan where they don’t uphold US suspensions.

My last little bit of news involves two of the most entertaining fighters in MMA.

Frank Shamrock (adoptive and estranged brother of Ken) will be facing off against perpetual menace to society Nick Diaz. For the record, I am a Frank Shamrock fan. I want to see him fight and I enjoy his spirited verbal sparring most of the time. Nick Diaz I see as a person who has no respect for the sport and the prototype of all that is wrong with meat head fans/fighters. That being said, I am super excited that Strikeforce is making this match-up happen. It could turn into the most entertaining build up to a match since Ali Foreman. As we get closer to the April 11th Showtime fight I will preview more, but for now I will just leave you with quotes from both men. These come courtesy of Cagepotato.com:

“Someone asked me the other day how my comeback was going so I guess I’ve come back. I love fighting. I love this art. I want to thank Nick Diaz for the opportunity and just warn him that when I punch his head and he lands in the second row he’ll need someone to catch him.” — Frank Shamrock

“Frank can talk all he wants, but I’m going to beat him up. Let’s see how much he fights back.’’ — Nick Diaz

As mentioned above, this match was to unify the Heavyweight title Lesnar had won from Randy “The Natural” Coture at UFC 91 last November, and the Interm Heavyweight Title Mir won from Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in December at UFC 92. Mir’s upset victory not only garnered him that interim title, but it added heat to the unification bout since he defeated Lesnar in the first round of his UFC debut.

Now to more immediate info.

UFC 96 is live this Saturday on PPV. As has been my duty in the past, I’m going to give you a look into the money lines, the backgrounds, and my feelings on a few of the fights. First lets his the specifics:

UFC 96 Live on Pay-Per-View, Saturday March 7th, 10pm est. All lines courtesy of BetUs.com.

Quintin “Rampage” Jackson (-350) v Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine (+250)

The top fight on this event will see one of my all time favorites take on one of the ugliest men in the business. Rampage has been up and down over the last year. He lost the Light-Heavy title to Forrest Griffin, decided to stop eating and sleeping for a week, went for a highly publicized drive that resulted in injuries and damages to other people and their cars, fired his trainer, and joined a new camp in England. After all of that he still found it in him to turn out the lights on Wanderlei Silva and win the Knockout of the Night award back at UFC 92 in December. It’s rumored if Rampage wins, his next fight will be to reclaim the Light-Heavy title against a surging Rashad Evans.

There isn’t a lot of nice things I have to say about Keith Jardine. He has never wronged me personally and I haven’t met him. As a fighter I just don’t like him.

He is a guy who fights up to the talent level of whoever he’s fighting. That tells me he is lazy. He’s beaten both Forrest Griffin and Chuck Liddell, but during this span he has also lost to a failing Wanderlei Silva (who placed one hand on Keith’s neck and used the other to punch him ugly) and a worthless Houston Alexander.

What I am saying is Keith wins fights he should lose and loses fights he should win. His best bet at beating Rampage is by using leg kicks and hoping he can cause the same type damage Forrest Griffin did against Jackson.

My Pick: Rampage via KO in the First.

Gabriel “Napo” Gonzaga (-160) V. Shane Carwin (+130)

This is a fight I want to watch. I have no idea what is going to happen in it, but we have one guy in Gonzaga who has the ability to have really fun bouts, and we have a guy in Carwin who is something of an up and comer. Gonzaga has a two-fight win streak going, and both have been dominate. That being said Fabrico Wedum and Randy Couture both TKO’ed him not that long ago.

Shane Carwin is someone I don’t know much about. I have watched his fights without ever really remembering him, of course that probably speaks more to my alcohol consumption then to his memorability. What I have learned about Carwin is that he is a wrestler by nature and he looks like he belongs in the WWE. Most importantly, he has never had to go out of the first round to get a win.

I don’t see it being out of the realm of reasonability that, with Mir out, this becomes a #1 contenders match. Whoever wins gets a shot at Lesnar at 98? I know it’s a bit of a stretch, but it would help the UFC add some last minute heat to a PPV which is seriously lacking buzz.

Just for you the reader, as I was finishing this article I happened across an interview with both Gonzaga and Carwin. It is because of this interview I am changing my prediction:

My Pick: Gonzaga via armbar in the second

Outside of these two fights, there isn’t a whole lot for me to add to this prediction. The actual PPV card is a bit weak for the UFC. Sure the Pete Sell Vs. Matt Brown match could turn into a slug fest, but neither man will turn into a title contender by winning. I am personally hoping to see Matt “The Hammer” Hamill drop to the new comer Mark Muno, but that is solely based on the fact Muno trains with Urijah Faber.

What is probably the most interesting fight on this card is the Brandon Vera v Michael Patt. It’s not interesting because of the matchup, but because Vera is within one loss of becoming a sports cautionary tale. He spent a year in a contract holdout to make huge money, pissed people off, got what he wanted, came back and hasn’t been impressive at all since. If Vira looses this fight, he will have gone from main event-caliber name to a pink slip in less then a year. After having watched the fighters weigh in, Patt looks like the town drunk, but Vera looked like he was already beaten. I wont be suprised if this goes to a decision or if Vera looses via TKO.

Starting at the top:

GSP defeated BJ Penn Via Stoppage.

GSP dominated this fight. After watching these two mix it up, it almost seems silly that anyone ever doubted GSP. The only thing Penn showed us in this fight is that he can take a beating, then have his brother throw in the towel. This was 1 round of feeling out and then 3 rounds of dominance. Two questions now remain: 1) How does BJ Penn respond to this beating and 2) Do we now get to see GSP fight Anderson Silva?

The answer to the first question has already started to be answered as BJ’s camp has filed a formal complaint with the Nevada State Athletic Comission over GSP’s corner adding Vaseline to his back in between rounds 1 and 2. As Dana White put it “some Vaseline on a guy’s back didn’t change the outcome of that fight, but you don’t do it.”

Lets hope that UFC continues its tradition of giving us fans what we want and talks Anderson Silva into going down in weight, or GSP into going up in weight so we can finally see who the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world really is (no offense meant toward Fedor).

Next we will look at Jon “Bones” Jones defeating “The American Psycho” Stephen Bonnar Via Decision

I used their ring names because I love them both for different reasons. Bonnar has the best in MMA, and Jones may have the worst. Therefore I am quite fond of them both.

Jones dominated the first and second round of this fight. He showed aggressiveness and the ability to throw a sick spinning elbow (pictured). “Bones” gassed out in the third, but by that point all he had to do was keep from getting knocked out or submitted.

Bonnar is still good, but he needs to really work to catch up to his TUF 1 opponent Forrest Griffin. Joe Rogan mentioned he is now training at Extreme Couture and that will help him in the future, but if he wants to keep in the mix at 205 he really needs a convincing victory soon.

Now onto the fights I missed:

Lyoto Machida defeated Thiago Silva via KO

Yes you read that right. Lyoto KO’ed my pick Silva. This fight went the way I thought it would with Silva trying to be aggressive against Lyoto’s bait and counter style. That being said, I never thought that Lyoto would be so efficient. He knocked Silva silly two times before finishing him off. All it took was a picture perfect foot sweep followed by a fist to the face on his way to the mat with one second left in the first round. When the bell sounded Lyoto got up to walk to his corner and Silva laid motionless. It was an awkward KO and a surprising one given Lyotos penchant for winning by decision. I could be wrong about Lyoto… maybe he is good.

Clay Guida defeated Nate Diaz Via Split Decision

So, due to me working late last night, and not being able to find this fight online, I haven’t seen it yet. I can only assume that Nate Diaz made some profaine gestures then cussed at Clay a bunch. Guida was forced to start swinging his arms like the Tasmanian Devil until one shot hit Nate in the face and they then went to the mat. Now I’ll say Nate again flipped the bird at Guida while Guida was in Nate’s guard. Guida then began to smother Diaz with his curly locks of hair. This went on for 3 rounds. One judge was impressed at Diaz’s ability to keep his brother from jumping into the ring and starting a scuffle, so he gave the fight to Nate. The other two judges were enamored with Guida’s ability to use his hair as a weapon, so they gave it to him. I’ll also assume that after the fight Stocton’s favorite sons, The Diaz Brothers, gave big props to their home town then went on call out fighters who are still under contract to Elite XC.

As mentioned above, I missed the rest of the show, so here is a list of the rest of the fights:

Matt Arroyo defeated Dan Cramer Via Split Decision

Jake O’Brien defeated Christian Wellisch Via Split Decision

John Howard defeated Chris Wilson Via Split Decision

Thiago Tavares defeated Manny Gamburyan Via Decision

Jon Fitch defeated Akihiro Gono Via Decision

Karo Parisyan defeated Dong Hyun Kim Via Split Decision

After three weeks of hype, two weeks of underwhelming PPV’s, and a lucky punch by Fedor, we have now come to UFC 94: St-Pierre Vs. Penn 2. Now I’m going to take a moment and let you all know my predictions have been off the last few months. I have gone a total 2-5 since picking for this site and am 0-2 on my upset specials. This has not only hurt my pride but also my check book.

A quick breakdown of the particulars:

• What: UFC 94: St-Pierre v Penn
• When: Saturday, January 31 at 10:00 PM ET
• Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas
• TV: PPV – $44.95 ($54.95 if you want HD)

Let’s start this preview at the top:

Georges St-Pierre ( Welterweight Champion) -185 Vs. BJ Penn (Lightweight Champion) +130

This is one of the most anticipated rematches in UFC history. It has all the makings of a true blood feud. St-Pierre and Penn legitimately dislike each other, their first fight was won on a split decision, and both men are current UFC champions.

If you look at common opponents both men have fought Sean Sherk, Matt Hughes, and Matt Serra. They both beat Sean Sherk by TKO, so no advantage there. They have both beaten Matt Serra, but Penn did it in his first try (decision). St-Pierre got unlucky in their first fight and lost to a TKO, but followed it up with a dominate TKO victory in the rematch. I have to give Penn the advantage there.

Things get interesting as we look at Matt Hughes. Penn submitted a near his prime Hughes in ‘04, but then got TKO’ed to a past his prime Hughes in ‘06. St-Pierre was submitted by a near his prime Hughes in ‘04 and then submitted a past his prime Hughes in ‘07. I think St-Pierre gets this one because losing to Hughes in ‘04 isn’t anything to be ashamed of, but losing to him in ‘06, via TKO no less, is probably a bit of a blemish. While on the subject of Hughes, Saturday night will be the 5 year anniversary of Penn’s win.

The first match between Penn and St-Pierre was a split decision that saw St-Pierre win, but a split decision isn’t much to go off of. Looking at common opponents also wont give you much. I say go with your gut. Mine says St-Pierre wins. He works harder then Penn, seems to take his career more seriously then Penn, and he scares me more then Penn. All that being said, this fight could really go either way. Both are solid standing up and on the ground, both have a blood lust, and both are insanely competitive. I think Penn’s ego gets in his way and St-Pierresomehow pulls it out in the 2nd.. lets say by submission.

My Pick: Georges St-Pierre

What do you think?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Lyoto Machida -265 Vs. Thiago Silva +200

I’m telling you right now, this will be an upset (but not my special). Both of these fighters stand undefeated with a record of 13-0. It’s my opinion the only reason Lyoto is favored so heavily is because he beat Tito Ortiz. The truth of the matter is that Lyoto won that fight by running away from Tito. He didn’t really land any shots and only seemed to have an advantage once in the fight. He also almost gave up a triangle to Tito (a man not known for his submission skills). Loyto has won 4 of his 5 UFC fights by decision.

On the other hand you have Thiago Silva. He has won all 4 of his UFC fights by TKO or submission. I don’t think he will let Lyoto run away from him like Tito and others have. Most importantly, Thiago is freaking scary man! I’ve seen all 4 of his UFC fights and he has been dominate. I say this is a first round TKO for Silva

MY Pick: Thiago Silva

Stephan Bonnar -185 Vs. Jon Jones +154

We all know and love “The American Psycho” Stephen Bonnar. His Ultimate Fighter 1 main event against Forrest Griffin helped to cement the UFC as Americas next big sport. He never backs down and he can take a crap load of punishment. We all always pull for the guy, but he hasn’t fought in the UFC since October of 2007 and he is 31 years old. The clock is ticking on Bonnar.

Jon Jones appears to be an up and comer, he’s only 21 and has a record of 7-0. That could be deceiving though as only one of his fights have come in the octagon.

This seems like a developmental fight to me. If Jones loses it wont hurt his stock because Bonnar is a known name with a fan base and a guy who’s only UFC losses come at the hands of the current and former Light Heavy Champions (Rashad Evans and Forrest Griffin). Yet, if he wins it is a upset victory and the UFC has the beginnings of a new star.

I don’t know enough about Jones to predict how this fight will go, but I get the feeling someone in the UFC may have decided to groom this guy. I will choose this as my upset special.

My Pick: Jon “Bones” Jones

Nate Diaz -130 Vs. Clay Guida EVEN

If you’re anything like me, chances are you think Nate and his brother Nick are both a waste of talent. Nate isn’t as bad as Nick, but the simple relation to him makes me hope that Clay justifies the way this line has been moving for the last 2 weeks.

I have no horse in this race, and I don’t know much about Clay Guida, but I want to see Nate Diaz loose. That being said, I pick him to win. He may be a mess as a person, but he has talent. It also doesn’t hurt that the few times I have seen Clay in action he has been inconsistent.

My Pick: Nate Diaz

The PPV was the first UFC event I can remember that made me fell it was a wast of money. I am sure others feel differently, but I just cant handle so many judges decisions (3) and the just plan sloppy fights (Coleman Rua).

Hendo won a solid fight against Rich Franklin. It was one of the nights judges decisions (split decision) and it saw a Henderson headbutt open a gash on Franklin’s noggin then, with about 35 seconds left in the fight, Hendo poked Franklin in the eye. It wasn’t a bad fight but it wasn’t as good as I had expected. Final note on this fight, Franklin completely wore down Henderson. That is no small feat, Henderson is used to fighting in Pride where the first round was 10 minutes. Franklin may not be the best conditioned fighter in all of the UFC.

Now, on the opposite side of conditioning we have Coleman and Rua. In my preview article I picked Coleman to win by KO. I said Rua’s conditioning would come into play and I thought Coleman would land a KO blow or get a ground and pound victory. The match played out %99 the way I said it would, that final %1 I missed was Rua’s TKO on Coleman. For the record Coleman should not fight again, he was just as gassed as Rua.

My record since joining this site continues to suck. I went 1-1 on my picks bringing me to a combined 2-4 so far and 0-2 on my upset picks (Lytle was my upset pick. I don’t think I made that clear). At least I was right that Lytle and “The Irish Hand Grenade” won the fight of the night.

Here is to hoping that UFC 94 is a better event.