Elite 8: UConn-Missouri Preview, Analysis, and Prediction
This post will analyze the UConn-Missouri Elite 8 game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.
One of these two teams I expected to get this far. The other one not so much. One of these teams was my championship pick on my original bracket. The other team I had getting bounced in round two.
So you would think that this would be an easy prediction right?
Wrong.
The horse I decided to ride all the way through the brackets to the championship was UConn. I didn’t necessarily “decide” on them, per se, as much as I was led to picking them because of the bracket picking system I devised. Still, I wasn’t too upset or surprised. UConn is a very good team that is extremely strong at point guard and center. The loss of Jerome Dyson certainly hurt, but this appeared like a team with enough juice to go all the way.
And I still think they can. But I’m a little worried.
All of the hubbub over the investigation into potential recruiting violations has to be a distraction. It obviously did not affect them too much against Purdue, but it might start to as the story gains steam. Maybe it won’t affect the team as much as it will Jim Calhoun, but I think UConn needs their fiery coach at his best to navigate through the defensive scheme and intensity of Missouri.
Which brings me to the real reason I’m worried: Missouri is a damn good team. I underestimated them in the Big 12 Tournament. I underestimated them in the NCAA Tournament, and now here they are, ready to play for a shot at the first Final Four in school history.
Let’s outline the particulars of the game and then we’ll jump right into a prediction.
UConn-Missouri Elite 8 Regional Final Preview
- StubHub: West Region Elite 8 Regional Final Tickets
- West Regional Breakdown
- Date: Saturday, March 28
- TV Time: 4:40 PM on CBS
- Site: University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ
- Announcers: Dick Enberg and Jay Bilas
- Point Spread: UConn -5 (according to ESPN Game Predictor)
- Over-Under: 150 1/2
Before I offer my own first impressions and prediction for this game, let’s see how Game Predictor views the action, based on the same five statistical categories we used to analyze the Sweet 16 games.
- Offensive Efficiency: UConn – 1.098 | Missouri – 1.100
- Defensive Efficiency: UConn – 0.888 | Missouri – 0.918
- Assist/TO Ratio: UConn – 1.284 | Missouri – 1.538
- Free Throw %: UConn – 0.674 | Missouri – 0.668
- Defensive Field Goal %: UConn – 0.374 | Missouri – 0.418
Other than the significant advantage for UConn in terms of defensive field goal percentage, these two teams are very evenly matched across these five categories. My anticipation is that UConn will be a slight favorite by Game Predictor based on the SOS and higher seed (and I base this on the results of the Sweet 16 predictions). Let’s see:
- Odds to Win Game: UConn – 59.4% | Missouri – 40.6%
- Most Likely Final Score: UConn – 70.8 | Missouri – 68.2
- Odds to Cover Spread (MIZZOU +5): UConn – 45.9% | Missouri – 54.1%
- Confidence Level: 2 Stars
So a relatively solid vote of confidence for UConn, at least for an Elite 8 game where each team should be pretty evenly matched. Here the issues though:
- UConn was not as good after the Dyson injury as they were before. However, the stats used in my original bracket analysis and this Game Predictor analysis take into account their performance with a healthy Dyson in the lineup.
- Game Predictor obviously cannot factor in the swirling controversy about the recruiting violations. I don’t know to what extent this will affect UConn — no one does — but let’s put it this way: I don’t see it as a positive in any way.
Still, I can’t abandon the Huskies. Not yet anyway.
I really like this Missouri team. They obviously play a very frenetic style of defense and an up-tempo style, yet they have an impeccable Assist/TO ratio. Additionally, they have scoring balance on offense. All five 
starters scored in double figures against Memphis with JT Tiller leading the way with 23. Plus, the duo of DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons is outstanding. They had a combined 32 points and 18 rebounds against a Memphis team with a strong presence inside. This bodes well for their ability to compete against the inside presence of Hasheem Thabeet.
But, I am not going to get carried away yet and jump two-feet first onto the Missouri bandwagon. Yes, they had an impressive win over Marquette; but it was against a Marquette team playing with a hobbled Dominic James. And after jumping out to a big lead they had to hang on late. Their win over Memphis was obviously impressive as well; but I have not been a believer in Memphis all year so I am not ready to anoint them West Region champs simply because of that victory. And just like in the Marquette game, Missouri displayed an inability to shut the door by letting Memphis back into the game late — though they never relinquished the lead.
The fact of the matter is that a week ago, I would not have thought twice about who to pick in this game. After how well Missouri has played over the last three weeks, they have given me plenty of reasons to pause long and hard and consider their chances.
At the end of the day though, I am a sucker for experienced backcourts and teams that can control the paint defensive. UConn is led by a player I love, senior AJ Price, and his senior backcourt teammate Craig Austrie. And, of course, they have Hasheem Thabeet down low who has proven all year, and did again last night against Purdue, that if he stays out of foul trouble he is an absolute beast and gives UConn a huge advantage 
against every team in American that does not have a 7′3 center with great defensive timing — which is pretty much every team in America.
This is a fascinating game between two outstanding teams with plenty of compelling storylines to go around. In the end, this game will come down to what most UConn games come down to: can Hasheem Thabeet stay on the floor and can UConn get enough scoring from their backcourt. UConn beat Purdue because Thabeet played 36 minutes, grabbed 15 rebounds, scored 15 points, and controlled the paint with 4 blocks. UConn also got 32 points from Price and Austrie on 9-21 shooting, plus 11 assists against only 4 turnovers from the duo. If these three guys produce like that against Missouri, UConn will win.
But if Thabeet gets in foul trouble, or Price and Austrie get out of their comfort zone against the Tigers’ D, Missouri has a great chance to win. Mix in the prospect of the Huskies being distracted as a result of the recruiting violation story, and the game gets ever so close to being a complete toss-up in my mind — and I start to think that Missouri may even be the “safer” pick.
There are lots of variables on the UConn side, but they are also the better team when they are at their best. I’m not ready to say that I am still 100% committed to them as the eventual national champions, but I am willing to say that they’ll at least reach the Final Four. Missouri will put up a great fight, and UConn better be ready. I think they will be. I like Missouri with the points (assuming the spread stays at 5, and I’ve only seen it listed on ESPN), but UConn to win straight up. And I can’t wait to see how this one actually unfolds once the ball is tipped.
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Demarre Carroll photo credit: Jon Goering/KANSAN
