This week’s topics include:

• Whether Duke is all that good
• Whether UConn might play their way out of the tournament
• Whether Baylor will beat either Kansas or Missouri this week
• Whether Alabama might miss the tournament
• Which of the four Big Ten bubble teams should be most concerned
• Whether the Pac-12 could get three bids,
• Whether Xavier can right the ship.

They also look ahead to a number of big games on Saturday.

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The Iowa State Cyclones look to stay undefeated as they head east to take on the Connecticut Huskies at Rentschler Field.  The Cyclones are coming off a triple overtime victory against their in-state rivals, while the Huskies lost a close one on the road to Vanderbilt last week.

This is final nonconference game for Iowa State and will be their first tough road game of the season.

Iowa State begins playing nine conference games this season and it is important for them to head into those tough Big 12 games undefeated if they want to make it to a bowl game this season.  Iowa State has a lot of momentum and confidence heading into this game after getting great quarterback play last week from Steele Jantz.

Steele Jantz was the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week and showed that he can play quarterback in a BCS conference.  Last week Jantz threw for 279-yards, 4 touchdowns and no interceptions in the Cyclones first victory over the Hawkeyes in three years.

As good of quarterback play as the Cyclones have gotten so far this season, the same cannot be said for the Huskies.  UConn is getting horrendous quarterback play this season and is 97^th in the country in passing yards averaging 166 yards-per-game.  Last week in UConn’s loss, quarterback Johnny McEntee had a game that he would like to forget and was held to 10-27 for 99 yards and 3 interceptions.

Both teams do feature running backs that are very solid that can easily rush for over 100-yards in any game.  Last week Shontrelle Johnson ran for 108 yards and averaged 6 yards-per-carry for the Cyclones.  Running back Lyle McCombs is the Huskies best offensive player and last week he ran for 118 yards.

On the defensive side of the ball the Huskies may have the better of the two defenses in this game.  No matter how bad the Huskies’ offense was last week, their defense kept them in the game and even scored a touchdown.

In the state of Iowa it is well known that the Cyclones only play one good game a season and that is when they play the Hawkeyes.   I look for Iowa State to struggle in this game and lose their first road game of the season.  They are predicted to finish towards the bottom of the Big 12 and one upset victory at home doesn’t change anything.

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* – Steele Jantz photo credit: Tim Reuter via Iowa State Daily

Update: Prediction posted.

Not a lot of people had Arizona facing off against Connecticut in the Elite 8 – heck, I had UCONN losing in the first round! (yes, I’m an idiot) – but that’s the matchup we’ve got. And you know what? It’s a fascinating one.

Other than Butler, nobody in America is hotter than the Huskies. After scuffling to a 9-seed in the Big East Tournament, Connecticut decided to turn it on and hasn’t lost since. The biggest reason, of course, is Kemba Walker, who is unquestionably the best guard in America right now.

Arizona is not far removed from the Lute Olson rubble, but Sean Miller has proven himself to be one of the best young coaches in America. The ‘Cats are both talented and athletic – just ask Duke – and have perhaps the nation’s best overall player in Derrick Williams.

This will be a fast, physical, athletic game between two well-coached team led by terrific stars. So while it may not have been the one anyone predicted, it’s quite possible that this is the most entertaining Elite 8 matchup we could have gotten in the West Region. Let’s look at it a closer.

Elite 8: Arizona-UCONN Game Info

• Arizona-UCONN Date: Saturday, March 26th
• Arizona-UCONN Tip Time: 7:00 ET
• Arizona-UCONN TV: CBS
• Arizona-UCONN Announcers: Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery
• Arizona-UCONN Location: The Honda Center in Anaheim, CA
• Arizona-UCONN Point Spread: UCONN -3
• Arizona-UCONN Over-Under: 145

Arizona-UCONN Statistical Analysis

Via the ESPN.com Bracket Predictor, here is a breakdown of Butler-Florida via some relevant, predictive metrics:

A couple quick notes about the stats:

• First off, the straws that stir the drinks in this game are UCONN’s Kemba Walker and Arizona’s Derrick Williams. With apologies to Jared Sullinger and the Morris twins, Walker and Williams are playing better than anyone else in this tournament. If one is appreciably better than the other Saturday night, that team will win. I think they’ll both be outstanding, which means their supporting cast will ultimately decide the game.
• Offensively, Arizona is very good: 14th in points per possession and 10th in effective field goal percentage. Where they struggle is with turnovers, which they do on 16.3% of their possessions. However, UCONN is a shocking 315th in the nation in forcing turnovers. To beat Arizona, UCONN will need to get turnovers and limit field goal attempts.
• UCONN is very solid on offense, as led by Walker. Arizona has not been a great defensive team throughout the season, other than on the glass. This will be a big battle. UCONN is 7th best in the nation in controlling their own offensive glass, while Arizona is 44th (pretty good, not great) in giving up offensive rebounds. The ‘Cats need to keep the Fighting Calhouns off the glass.

Arizona-UCONN Prediction

One our college basketball-obsessed writers will have a more complete analysis and prediction for this game later today or tomorrow morning (at the latest). Until then, we want to know what you think:

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Check back soon for our analysis and pick.

Update: Okay, time to quit procrastinating and offer a pick; but I’ll be honest in that I really do not feel strongly either way.

Connecticut is obviously red hot, seemingly still riding a way of confidence and energy from their Big East tourney run. They also have the best hand-handling player in America in Kemba Walker leading the charge. If this game is close in the final minutes, I always want the team with the best guard, so in a close game I like UCONN.

However, Arizona just showed us that they are capable of dominating a really good team and turning a deficit of their own into a 2nd half blowout. Derrick Williams was sensational against Duke, and there is not reason to think he will not have another explosive game. Could Arizona play near-perfect basketball gain, like they did in the 2nd half against Duke, and run the Huskies out of the gym? I guess anything is possible, and it’s a tough image to shake from my mind after the Duke game.

But I see this one being a close game between two pretty evenly matchup teams that had up-and-down regular seasons but are peaking at the right time. Like I said, in a close game give me the team with the best guard. That’s Kemba. This UCONN team looks like one you’ll have to beat by 7-10 to eliminate, because in tight games Kemba is going to make the play.

• UCONN-Arizona Prediction: Connecticut 75 – Arizona 73
• UCONN-Arizona Spread Pick: Arizona +3
• UCONN-Arizona Over/Under Pick: Over

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Once again you can’t blame the offense because the Fighting Irish’s offense played very well today. They did a very nice job of balancing the running and passing game, but once again the defense let this team down. The Irish let thew Huskies run all over them, with the Huskies running for a total of 231 yards and two TDs.

And you can’t overlook the dedication that UConn showed all game. You could tell they were playing with a purpose. This was UConn’s most memorable win in its existence because it is the first time they have won since cornerback Jasper “Jazz” Howard was stabbed to death.

Jazz this is for you,” UConn coach Randy Edsall said. “Best win we have ever had.”

Coach Edsall and his players will remember this game for the rest of their lives. It was a deserving win for a deserving team.

As for Weis, this loss won’t help his cause on hoping to return next year. His winning percentage, .573, is now lower than both of the two former coaches before him. It is now the second time in row Weis hasn’t been able to win on Senior night.

Jimmy Clausen, Golden Tate, and Michael Floyd all shared very productive nights. Clausen threw for 329 yards and two TDs. Tate caught nine balls for 128 yards and a TD while Floyd caught eight balls for 104 yards and a TD.

Notre Dame, now 6-5, plays Stanford next Saturday, November 28th.

Anyway, for the Spartans fans out there (presumably), there will now be plenty of UConn fans’ tickets (presumably) out there for buying. And if UConn ends up coming back, the opposite is true. Here is the TV schedule for the Mens NCAA Championship game on Monday, plus some resources to buy tickets if you’re looking to go to the game:

2009 Mens NCAA Championship Game in Detroit

• What: 70th Mens Basketball NCAA Championship Game
• Where: Ford Field in Detroit, MI
• When: Monday, April 6th
• TV Time: 9:21 ET on CBS
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Participants: Michigan State and North Carolina
• Point Spread: North Carolina -7.5 (initially on Saturday night…check your favorite sportsbook for most up-to-date info)
• Over-Under: 153
• StubHub: 2009 Mens NCAA Championship Game Tickets
• RazorGator: 2009 Mens NCAA Championship Game Tickets
• Hotels.com: Find Hotels in Detroit for Mens NCAA Championship Game
• Midwest Sports Fans Analysis: Michigan State v North Carolina Preview and Prediction

Okay…time to go watch the rest of the game and see if UConn and make a miracle happen. They’ve got it within six…

Note: This post is from 2009. To view our 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:

• March Madness 2010 Schedule, Sites, and Tickets
• MSF Bracket Challenge
• Mens NCAA Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule, Announcers, Spreads
• Midwest Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• East Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• South Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• West Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• History of Final Four in Indianapolis
• Women’s NCAA Tournament Schedule, Sites, Tickets

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This post will analyze the Michigan State-Connecticut Final Four game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

This is the Final Four matchup, Michigan State versus UConn, that I picked from the very start. I have to admit that I became less and less confident that it would actually happen as the tournament unfolded, but it has proven a few tournament cliches true:

• Teams with talented, experienced, and battle-tested guards win in March.
• Teams that get consistent production from their low-post players win in March.
• Free throw shooting matters in March.

Michigan State and UConn have not been perfect in these areas through four games, but they have been better and more consistent in these areas than any other team on their side of the bracket. And the reason is the two incredible coaches that are on the sideline: Tom Izzo and Jim Calhoun.

UConn coach Jim Calhoun started his career at Northeastern University in 1972. He remained their coach until 1986 and compiled a 248-137 record. In five out of his last six seasons there, they made the NCAA Tournament, three times advancing to the second round. In 1986, Calhoun took over a struggling Connecticut program and went a combined 13-35 in the Big East during his first three seasons in Storrs. Since then, he has won two national championships, reached the Final Four this year, made five other Elite 8 appearances, four additional Sweet 16 appearances, and earned 556 victories against only 204 losses. Without question, Jim Calhoun is among the top handful of coaches in America today.

Also with him in the handful of top coaches is Tom Izzo of Michigan State. I have made no secret of my basketball-man-crush on Tom Izzo, and the Spartans’ tournament run this season is only reinforcing what I’ve already thought: Tom Izzo is one of the best coaches in America, period. You can debate who is the best, but you better include Izzo in the debate. (And I hope that someday his protege Tom Crean is in the debate as well, but that remains to be seen.)

Just look at the resume Tom Izzo has compiled in East Lansing since taking over for Jud Heathcote in 1995. Izzo is 335-136 and has tied or won the Big Ten conference five times. His true greatness, however, can be seen in the NCAA Tournament.

The Spartans made the NIT during Izzo’s first two years in town, but have made the NCAA Tournament every season since 1997-98. During that span, Izzo and the Spartans have won a national championship (2000), reached the Final Four four other tmes (1999, 2001, 2005, 2009), reached the Elite 8 in 2003, and have been to the Sweet 16 two other times (1998, 2008). The Spartans’ masterful upset stomping of Louisville yesterday in Indianapolis was a microcosm of the tournament greatness that Izzo has consistently displayed at Michigan State.

This Saturday in Detroit, Izzo and the Spartans battle Calhoun and the Huskies for the chance to play for all the marbles on Monday night. UConn and its Big East pedigree are favored, but if we learned anything from this weekend, it is this: don’t count the Spartans out. They knocked off the Big East champions in impressive fashion and will no doubt give UConn all it can handle.

Let’s take a look at the particulars and then break down the game itself.

Michigan State-UConn Final Four Preview and Prediction

• Tickets: 2009 Final Four Tickets from StubHub
• Final Four Quick Preview
• Final Four Date: Saturday, April 4th
• TV: CBS (or March Madness On Demand)
• MSU-UConn Game Time: 6:07 PM ET
• Location: Ford Field in Detroit, MI
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Spread: Connecticut -4.5
• Over-Under: 135
• ESPN Team Pages: Michigan State Spartans | Connecticut Huskies

(FYI…the above spread and over-under are from BetUs on 3/30 at 7:45 am, so you may want to check there for the most up-to-date info if you see this later in the week. I don’t know where ESPN gets the spread info listed below that is used on the Game Predictor.)

And now, it’s time to analyze this matchup.

As you know, I have been using the ESPN Game Predictor to analyze every game since the Sweet 16 started. Based on the output from the Game Predictor, plus my own intuition, I have correctly picked 11 out of the last 12 games (missing only on Syracuse-Oklahoma). And that’s straight up, I don’t know what the record is against the spread, but it’s probably 9 or 10 out of 12. (I don’t gamble, so I don’t pay attention to how the spread picks do.)

Either way, I have become significantly more accurate forecasting games with some actual data as opposed to just going on gut feeling and my limited experience watching all of these teams play.

With all that said, let’s see how these two teams stack up with respect to the same five statistical categories I have used to predict every game thus far:

• Offensive Efficiency: UConn – 1.096 | Michigan State – 1.058
• Defensive Efficiency: UConn – 0.891 | Michigan State – 0.925
• Assist/TO Ratio: UConn – 1.268 | Michigan State – 1.181
• Free Throw %: UConn – 0.679 | Michigan State – 0.698
• Defensive Field Goal %: UConn – 0.376 | Michigan State – 0.414

UConn holds advantages in four of the five statistical categories, although not significant advantages. Still, I expect a pretty strong pick by Game Predictor in the direction of UConn because of how the stats came out and by virtue of their seeding of their strength of schedule. Let’s see:

• Odds to Win Game: UConn – 60.0% | Michigan State – 40.0%
• Most Likely Final Score: UConn – 72.3 | Michigan State – 69.4
• Odds to Cover Spread (MSU +4): UConn – 53.6% | Michigan State – 46.4%
• Confidence Level: 3 Stars

Now, before I get into my thoughts on this game, I want to say a few very important things to all of the Spartans fans out there:

• The odds of Michigan State winning the Louisville game, according to Game Predictor, were 83.1% – 16.9%, with a confidence level of 4 stars. We know how that turned out.
• In my original bracket (which currently sits at 96.9% in the ESPN Bracket Challenge!) I picked UConn to beat Michigan State and eventually win it all over North Carolina.
• Bracket be damned, I will be rooting like crazy for Michigan State to win on Saturday.

However — and it pains me to say this — I do not have the same gut feeling about Michigan State beating UConn as I did about the Spartans defying the odds to beat Louisville.

Seeing as how this is a Midwest sports blog, and the Spartans have become my adopted team during this year’s tournament, let’s take a look at this game from an MSU perspective. Three reasons why they will win, and three reasons why they won’t.

Three Reasons Why Michigan State Will Beat Connecticut

1 — Goran Suton is playing out of his mind right now

Goran Suton, as he was against Kansas and Louisville, will be the key for Michigan State. In both of my previous Michigan State previews I’ve discussed the importance of Raymar Morgan, but the reality has been that Goran Suton has been the perfect Robin to Kalin Lucas’ Batman. Suton scored 19 points and had 10 boards against Louisville after going for 20-9 against Kansas. The Spartans need similar production from him on Saturday, and there is no reason to believe he can’t provide it.

Here is what else he needs to do: draw Hasheem Thabeet away from the basket at times, but also get the ball in the post and be savvy enough to draw fouls on the UConn big man. Connecticut only lost three games this year, two of them to Pitt and one to Georgetown. In one of the Pitt losses by UConn, Thabeet only played 23 minutes before fouling out with 5 points, 2 blocks and 4 rebounds. Against Georgetown, Thabeet played 34 minutes but only scored 4 points and had 7 rebounds to go along with 7 blocks. If Michigan State can get Thabeet in foul trouble and/or force him to struggle on the offensive end, it will greatly improve their chances. Goran Suton has to play a key role in any Thabeet neutralization strategy, and he certainly appears up to the task right now.

2 — Michigan State will be playing before a home-court crowd in Detroit

East Lansing is only a 90 minute from drive Detroit, and obviously there are lots of Spartan fans in the city already. Not since Duke played in the Final Four in Charlotte (eventually losing the title game to Arkansas) has a team enjoyed this kind of Final Four home court advantage. And it’s the best of both worlds for the Spartans: they were great away from home this year, but now get to play away from home in an environment that will still be hostile for their opponent. As an underdog, the home crowd can help to give the Spartans momentum. If Michigan State can keep the game close, the crowd will be their best friend.

3 — Kalin Lucas is one of the most underrated great players in America

I realize that Kalin Lucas was named Big Ten Player of the Year, but I still do not think he gets the recognition he deserves. I’m a Big Ten fan, and I did not truly come to appreciate Lucas until this tourney run. All he has done in the last two games is outduel Kansas’ scintillating point guard Sherron Collins, and then completely control the pace and tempo of the Louisville game against physical guys that were bigger than him. Lucas is a great ball-handler, an excellent passer, and an outstanding shooter. He is great spotting up or off the drive looking to score or to dish. He is slight of frame, and will be going up against a tremendously large and physical defense in UConn, but his quickness can help him overcome this disadvantage. If he can get into the lane, draw Hasheem Thabeet, and find open cutters or spot-up shooters, Michigan State can get open looks. If the Spartans knock them down, they will stay right with the Huskies.

3a — Depending on if there are any more revelations in the UConn recruiting controversy, the Huskies could be distracted

I don’t think this will be an issue, and it won’t e if nothing new develops with this story. I think Jim Calhoun is perfectly adept at dealing with the inevitable questions he will get about this story, and UConn did not seem the least bit distracted by it in disposing of Purdue and Missouri. I throw this out only as a caveat, since I am making this prediction on Monday. There are plenty of 24-hour news cycles between now and Saturday for the dust to be kicked up and distractions to take hold; but in the end, I don’t think the potential recruiting scandal at UConn will influence this game one way or the other.

Three Reasons Why Connecticut will beat Michigan State

1 — Hasheem Thabeet is a presence unlike any Michigan State has dealt with this year.

Let’s be honest: Hasheem Thabeet is unlike any presence any opposing team has dealt with this year in college basketball. 13.5 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 4.3 blocks per game are the numbers, but Thabeet obviously affects a basketball game in multiple ways. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he will turn Michigan State into a jump shooting team, while offering UConn the ability to score down low on the other end.

Michigan State will undoubtedly try to draw Thabeet away from the basket by putting Suton out high like they did against Louisville. When this happens, I would not be surprised to see the Huskies let someone like Jeff Adrien or Stanley Robinson match up against him. Adrien is 6’7 with a big body and Robinson is 6’9 with a long wingspan. They can take turns bodying Suton up and making it hard for him to shoot his jumper, while simultaneously allowing Thabeet to roam the paint and take away the drive.

Either way, one of UConn’s great strengths is their ability to match up defensively with anyone they play. Tom Izzo will have to be ready to adjust and Kalin Lucas will need to penetrate into the teeth of the defense to create havoc.

2 — AJ Price is every bit as good as Kalin Lucas

Price is one of my favorite players in the country, and another guy that I think is underappreciated. he averages 14.7 points and 4.8 assists per game and is the Huskies’ most consistent shooter from three-point range. You need excellent guard play to win in the Final Four, especially against a team with a player as good as Kalin Lucas, and AJ Price gives UConn that dimension. And as Kemba Walker showed against Missouri, he can step in and provide clutch plays as well.

I like Price’s confidence and his calm demeanor and he will not get rattled even if Ford Field sounds like the Breslin Center. He has gone toe-to-toe with the best point guards in the Big East, playing in some of the most hostile environments, and has proven that he is one of the best in the country.

3 — Michigan State is a better free throw shooting team, but UConn gets to the line more often

As you can see above, the Spartans hold a 69.8% to 67.9% advantage over UConn in free throw shooting. However, for the season, Connecticut made 641 free throws out of 943 attempts, while Michigan State made 577 free throws on 828 attempts. The Huskies are big and physical at every position and the Spartans have to be careful not to foul too often. As we saw during the Elite 8 (especially in the Louisville-MSU and Pitt-Villanova games) the refs are calling things tight in the tournament. Against Louisville, Michigan State was whistled for 22 fouls and the Cardinals shot 18 free throws to the Spartans’ 7. Yet, Louisville only shot 55.6% from the line.

I don’t think the Spartans will be so fortunate if there is nearly a 2:1 ratio in free throw attempts and the ratio favors UConn.

The Huskies hit 26-32 from the line against Missouri, and 19-30 from the line against Purdue. In both games they dominated in free throws made and attempted, and the disparity in free throws made was larger than the final margin of victory. This is a huge part of the winning formula for UConn and the Spartans must be mindful of limiting the Huskies’ free attempts at the line.

With the way the tournament is being called this year, and UConn’s size and style of play, I think this could ultimately be the Spartans undoing.

As I said above, I picked UConn to win it all before the tournament started, but I have thrown my full fan support behind Michigan State. I love Tom Izzo, I love the way Kalin Lucas, Travis Walton, and Goran Suton are playing, and I love the fact that the city of Detroit gets to cheer on the home state team as we culminate another thrilling NCAA Tournament.

I just don’t think Michigan State will get by UConn.

I think they will keep it close and beat the 4-point spread, and I certainly think that they can win — in fact, I will never again be surprised by a Tom Izzo team winning a game it is not “supposed” to win in the tournament. And while I think that the Spartans’ chances are better than 40% to win, as predicted by Game Predictor, I think the chances are only about 46-47%. So if you ask me who I think will win, I have to answer UConn.

I hope I’m wrong, and I’ll be cheering hard that I am. But I do think that the most fitting way for this season to end is with an all Big East championship game. I don’t know yet whether or not I am predicting Villanova to upset North Carolina, but I am predicting Connecticut to hold up their end of the bargain.

What do you think?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Now that I’ve given you my keys to the UConn-MSU game, and my prediction, feel free to use the comment section for yours. I only chose three on each side, but there are plenty of other important storylines and matchups that will help determine this game. Spartan fans, your job is to please convince me why I’m wrong and give me more hope heading into Saturday.