Well just ask Ty Lawson, who set the NBA record for consecutive three-pointers made in a game last night:

Congrats to Ty Lawson for breaking the record! The kid works hard and his strong play got lost amidst all of the Carmelo hoopla. This shows how talented and mentally ready the young kid is!

Make sure to follow me on Twitter!

Come on Crean. I think it’s time for another one in Bloomington.

Congratulations are also in order for my dad, who won the first ever Midwest Sports Fans Bracket Challenge. He picked North Carolina to win it all, and his bracket ended up in the 99.8 percentile. Not too shabby. And his bracket at home was even better. Maybe instead of me writing 4,000-word long posts about the tournament games we should just have him do the previews. I finished 10th out 41, 72.6 percentile. Back to the drawing board next year for a bracket-picking system.

The day after the NCAA Tournament is always a sad day for me, and for college basketball fans across the country. Luckily, we have the Masters and baseball to jump right into.

But thank you, college basketball, for a great season. You have always been, and will always be, my favorite. And now that March Madness is over, I’m already counting down the days until Midnight Madness next season.

Note: This post is from 2009. To view our 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:

• March Madness 2010 Schedule, Sites, and Tickets
• MSF Bracket Challenge
• Mens NCAA Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule, Announcers, Spreads
• Midwest Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• East Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• South Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• West Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• History of Final Four in Indianapolis
• Women’s NCAA Tournament Schedule, Sites, Tickets

——————–

This post will analyze the Michigan State-North Carolina NCAA Championship game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

From the Maui Invitational to March Madness, it all comes down to Championship Monday. One of the participants in this year’s Mens NCAA Championship Game was excepted: North Carolina. The other, Michigan State, surprised a lot of people (but not me) by surpassing Louisville to even make it to Detroit for the Final Four. They then surprised even more people (including me) by knocking off UConn Saturday night.

Now, the Spartans and head coach Tom Izzo have an opportunity to bring even more joy to the city of Detroit by capturing the 2009 NCAA Championship. All that stands in their way is the most talented team in America and the team that has been more dominant than any other during the NCAA Tournament. Monday night’s game will be, undoubtedly, the most challenging yet for Izzo, Kalin Lucas, and the mighty Spartans.

But so was Saturday night’s game against UConn, and Michigan State was able to impose their will in an 82-73 victory.

And so was last weekend’s game against Louisville, but the Spartans took the Cardinals behind the woodshed in the second half and made all fans of Big Ten basketball proud in a 64-52 victory.

The question now is: can these magic Spartans pull another unexpected rabbit out of their hat with an upset over North Carolina?

I’m about to put my 12-2 record predicting all of the games since the Sweet 16 on the line. I went against Michigan State in their Final Four matchup with UConn. It will take a lot for me to pick against them again.

Unfortunately for all of the Big Ten and Spartan supporters who will be cheering on the guys in green Monday night, North Carolina has proven there are a lot of reasons to like their chances. Will it be enough to overcome the decidedly home court-like advantage that Michigan State will enjoy on Monday night? That’s what we’re here to find out. (Or, at least, predict.)

First, a few of the specifics for the 2009 NCAA Mens Basketball Championship game between Michigan State and North Carolina:

Michigan State v North Carolina National Championship Game Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: 2009 Mens NCAA Championship Game Tickets
• RazorGator: 2009 Mens NCAA Championship Game Tickets
• Hotels.com: Find Hotels in Detroit for Mens NCAA Championship Game
• What: 70th Mens Basketball NCAA Championship Game
• Where: Ford Field in Detroit, MI
• When: Monday, April 6th
• TV Time: 9:21 ET on CBS
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Point Spread: North Carolina -7.5
• Over-Under: 153

(FYI…the spread and over-under info are the initial lines from BetUs.com from Saturday night. You may want to check there for the most up-to-date info.)

And now, let’s head over to Game Predictor and see how Michigan State and North Carolina match up with respect to the same five statistical categories we have used to analyze every game thus far since the Sweet 16:

• Offensive Efficiency: North Carolina – 1.155 | Michigan State – 1.058
• Defensive Efficiency: North Carolina – 0.932 | Michigan State – 0.925
• Assist/TO Ratio: North Carolina – 1.416 | Michigan State – 1.181
• Free Throw %: North Carolina – 0.765 | Michigan State – 0.698
• Defensive Field Goal %: North Carolina – 0.414 | Michigan State – 0.414

So the Tar Heels win three out of the five categories, with the teams being identical in terms of the field goal percentage they give up. For anyone who has been following these predictions, we know that Game Predictor will choose the Tar Heels. They are the higher seed and have the advantage in the stat categories. The question is, how strong will the prediction be? Let’s find out:

• Odds to Win Game: North Carolina – 59.2% | Michigan State – 40.8%
• Most Likely Final Score: North Carolina – 74.7 | Michigan State – 71.8
• Odds to Cover Spread: (I did this before the spread had been posted. Use the link above to go to Game Predictor and analyze it on your own, using your own stats, if you really want to know. I don’t bet on sports, so I don’t really care that much.)
• Confidence Level: 2 Stars

Now that we know how Game Predictor sees the game, with no real surprises, it’s time for a little analysis and prediction.

Before we get into the nitty-gritty, let’s discuss one thing that does not matter heading into Monday night’s MSU-UNC game:

Back in December, North Carolina beat Michigan State 98-63 at Ford Field in Detroit

A lot of people are going to point to the Michigan State-North Carolina game from earlier this season as a reason for why North Carolina can and should beat Michigan State on Monday. Why? Same teams + same season + same venue (should) = same result…right?

Not so fast, and here are the reasons:

• In December, the announced attendance was 25,267 out of the 70,000 person capacity at Ford Field. Monday night, there will be 70,000 strong at the game and the vast majority will be partial to the Spartans. Michigan State may not be in East Lansing, but it will be as close to a home game as possible for a game like this in terms of fan support.
• Goran Suton did not play in the first meeting. He was out with a sprained knee. Suton did not have a good game against UConn Saturday, but he was huge in the Spartans’ wins over Kansas and Louisville.
• Michigan State came into the game having only two days rest after playing three games in four nights at the Old Spice Classic in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. After the game, Tom Izzo said, “The blame goes on me for the scheduling. We were dead.” The Tar Heels had finished up their championship run in the Maui Invitational on November 26th and then played a tune-up game against UNC-Asheville that resulted in a relaxing 116-48 victory. Ty Lawson smartly said during the press conference after the Villanova game that the previous game would have no bearing on Monday night.
• Kalin Lucas scored six points on 2-10 shooting. Have you seen him play in the tournament? Do you think he’ll do that again? I don’t think so.

Okay, now that we have that out of the way, let’s take a look at where each team has an advantage with three reasons why each team will win.

Three Reasons Why North Carolina Will Beat Michigan State

1 – Plain and simple, North Carolina at its best is better than Michigan State at its best.

Can anyone truly, honestly dispute this?

If both of these teams play their absolute best basketball of the season, North Carolina will win. But luckily for the Spartans, the game is not played in such a vacuum. Many people thought Michigan State and Kansas were an even match, and the Spartans came out on top. Most people gave Louisville and UConn the advantage over Michigan State, but the Spartans still came out on top.

Nearly everyone, again, will give North Carolina the advantage over Michigan State — so can the Spartans come out on top?

Well, they can…but they have to force the Tar Heels to play below their ability. And while this is certainly possible in a one game scenario, you would lose more money that you’d win betting against the team with superior ability.

An old adage of winning in the NCAA Tournament is that usually the teams with the most NBA-level talent end up going the furthest. North Carolina certainly has more players projected to make an impact at the next level than Michigan State. Again, this does not necessarily mean that North Carolina will win, but their chances of doing so are certainly better.

2 – Ty Lawson is the best player on the floor.

I realize that this somewhat piggybacks on the last one, but it’s an important distinction. Having a lot of talent is great, but if that talent does not function together as a unit, it does not matter. The reason why Michigan State has beaten Louisville and UConn is that Kalin Lucas has been an oustanding floor general and has guided the talent on the floor with him to play better team basketball than its opponents.

Ty Lawson is doing the exact same thing, and now we know why everyone was so concerned about his toe injury. This guy is magnificent.

And as good as Kalin Lucas is, Ty Lawson is still a notch above. I love Kalin, but he is not as consistent a shooter nor quite as effective a playmaker in the open court as Lawson. A quick comparison:

• Points per game: Ty Lawson – 16.3 | Kalin Lucas – 14.6
• Assists per game: Ty Lawson – 6.5 | Kalin Lucas – 4.6
• Field Goal %: Ty Lawson – .542 | Kalin Lucas – .394
• Free Throw %: Ty Lawson – .815 | Kalin Lucas – .814
• Free Throw Attempts per game: Ty Lawson – 5.2 | Kalin Lucas – 5.52
• 3 Point %: Ty Lawson – .485 | Kalin Lucas – .388

Look, I love Kalin Lucas. (In fact, I’ve now said that I love him in two consecutive paragraphs, but it’s just a basketball crush and nothing more, I promise.) And you can chalk up Lawson’s advantage in points and assists to the style of play North Carolina employs. Surprisingly, the more slight-of-frame Lucas actually get to the foul line more than Lawson, which proves the kid’s toughness and ability to get into the teeth of the defense. (As well as the fact that Michigan State has played in a few more close games.)

However, those shooting percentages are difficult to ignore. In a one game scenario, either of these guys could be hot or cold. The question is, who is more likely to be hot and who is more likely to be cold? The stats say Ty Lawson is more likely to a great shooting night.

I think the frontcourts for these two teams are very similar (assuming either Raymar Morgan or Goran Suton shows up), and that guard production will likely decide the outcome; if this is true, then it’s hard to choose against the Tar Heels and Lawson.

3 – The Tar Heels have been on a mission since this time last year.

After North Carolina got royally spanked by Kansas in the Final Four last year, the Tar Heels’ terrific trio of Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, and Tyler Hansbrough all decided to come back for another run. Without question, they had one primary goal in mind: win the national title.

Now, I realize that every top echelon team (Michigan State included) enters a season hoping to win a national title. But the Tar Heels entered the season expecting to win a national title, and knowing they had the talent to do it. Plus, they had the extra motivation of erasing last year’s Final Four embarrassment. They did that tonight by beating Villanova, and now they have one more step left to complete their season-long journey.

I think this is a big difference between these two teams.

North Carolina started the season as the #1 team in America in both polls, with no other team receiving a first place vote. Then they went out and dominated the majority of their competition and are peaking at just the right time. Michigan State started out at #6 and #7 in the two polls, had an up and down season, but they too are peaking at the right time. But I get a small sense to happy-to-be-here from Michigan State. I think their goal was to make it to Detroit entering the season. North Carolina’s goal was to win it in Detroit.

You will see below that I think the home court advantage is big for Michigan State, but I also think the confidence, belief, and season-long championship tunnel-vision of North Carolina is a big advantage for the Tar Heels. If North Carolina was going to lay an egg, I think they would have done it tonight in the Final Four; but they stared down the evil memory of last year and overcame it emphatically. Now freed from that pressure, there is only one more sprint to the only finish line they were targeting all season: the National Championship.

A supremely talented team that is on a mission, and peaking as they approach their mission’s achievement, is extremely dangerous. North Carolina heading into Monday night is extremely dangerous.

Three Reasons Why Michigan State Will Beat North Carolina

1 – Michigan State can work the offensive glass and control teams in transition

Watch North Carolina play and you are likely to wear our your neck going back and forth trying to keep up with the action. The Tar Heels push the ball and push the ball and push the ball some more. If you are going to beat North Carolina, you absolutely have to be able to play strong transition defense. Surprisingly though, you do not have to dominate the Tar Heels on the glass to win.

Case in point, in their four losses this year:

• North Carolina outrebounded Maryland 46-38 in an 88-85 loss
• North Carolina outrebounded Wake Forest 46-35 in a 92-89 loss
• North Carolina outrebounded Boston College 45-38 in an 85-78 loss
• North Carolina was outrebounded by Florida State 35-34 in a 73-70 loss

And earlier tonight, Villanova outrebounded North Carolina 50-46, but still lost 83-69. So clearly, rebounding by itself is not a key to beating North Carolina. But here is what is a key: getting solid offensive rebounding from your frontcourt players, while your backcourt guys are heading back to slow down the North Carolina transition. A deeper look at the Carolina losses this year:

• Maryland had 12 offensive rebounds, seven of which came from frontcourt players
• Wake Forest had 8 offensive rebounds, all of which came from frontcourt players
• Boston College had 14 offensive rebounds, 10 of which came from frontcourt players
• Florida State had 12 offensive rebounds, 10 of which came from frontcourt players

And tonight, Villanova had 19 offensive rebounds, but 10 of them came from backcourt players Dwayne Anderson, Scottie Reynolds, Reggie Redding, and Corey Fisher. With those guys battling inside for offensive rebounds, North Carolina was able to get into transition and get open looks. The result was 83 points and 11-22 shooting from downtown.

Look at the Oklahoma-UNC game. The Sooners tied the Tar Heels on the glass 27-27 overall and beat them 10-6 on the offensive end, with all of those offensive rebounds coming from frontcourt guys. The Sooners held the Tar Heels to 72 points, which is 11 less than the Heels scored in any other tournament game and 17 fewer than their season average. Unfortunately for Oklahoma, they simply could not hit a shot themselves (2-19 from downtown) and only scored 60.

If Michigan State shoots 2-19 from downtown, obviously they have no chance. They had a poor shooting night tonight and still went 6-19 from deep. But if they can follow Oklahoma’s blueprint for slowing down UNC’s pace, the Spartans can win a game played in the 70s.

Can they follow that blueprint?

Well, just look at tonight — because they did. Against a much bigger UConn team, the Spartans were outrebounded only 41-40 and won on the offensive side 16-15. Most importantly, neither Kalin Lucas nor Travis Walton contributed even one rebound to the excellent effort on the offensive glass. What they did do is get back and slow down AJ Price and the Huskies’ running game. UConn only shot 42.4% overall and 2-6 from downtown, both stats proving that they did not get many easy shots, most of which typically come out of transition.

2 – To beat North Carolina you must have guards who can score; Michigan State does

Let’s take a look at North Carolina’s three losses again:

• G Greivis Vasquez scored 35 points on 13-24 shooting and 5-10 from downtown in the Maryland loss
• Gs Tyrese Rice and Rakim Sanders combined for 47 points on 16-28 shooting and 6-13 from downtown in the Boston College loss
• G Jeff Teague scored 34 points on 9-17 shooting and 3-4 from downtown in the Wake Forest loss
• G Toney Douglas scored 27 points on 10-18 shooting and 3-8 from deep in the Florida State loss in the ACC Tournament.

I actually thought that this was a reason why Villanova would have a chance against North Carolina. And while Scottie Reynolds, Reggie Redding, and Corey Fisher combined for 45 points, they were a combined 16-46 from the field. Villanova’s shot selection on Saturday night was, in a word, atrocious.

Michigan State is a much more disciplined team offensively, and should use better shot judgment and be more patient to get open looks. And while I do not think you will see any of their players individually match the output that Vasquez, Rice, Sanders, Teague, and Douglas had in leading their teams to victory, Michigan State does have five players capable of scoring in double-digits and hitting outside shots on a nightly basis: Kalin Lucas, Chris Allen, Durrell Summers, Travis Walton, and Korie Lucious.

Kalin Lucas is the most consistent of the bunch, and he will have to score points on Monday night. He has scored at least 10 in the Spartans’ last four tournament games, including 21 Saturday against UConn. I think Lucas needs to score in the 15-20 range for the Spartans to win, but most importantly they must get balance from these five guys.

The biggest question mark about North Carolina throughout the season was their defense, but they have proven over the last couple of games that they can step it up and play solid D. By no means is it a foregone conclusion that Michigan State’s guards can score enough points to keep up with the Tar Heels, but they do have the talent to do it, which is why they have a chance Monday night.

Without significant point production from the backcourt, you simply do not beat North Carolina; the Spartan guards need to bring it Monday night, and they are capable.

3 – The home court advantage and close game experience

I think these are a big deal. A very big deal.

North Carolina is a team with incredible “spurtability” that likes to lay the hammer down on opponents — a lot like they did against the Spartans early in the year, and a lot like they did against Villanova Saturday. North Carolina jumped out on the Wildcats early, and ‘Nova was never able to get back into it. It looked to me like Villanova was playing as if everything was going against them, and the self-fulfilling prophecy proved true.

The Tar Heels average point differential on the season is 17.8 points (89.8-72.0), so they are used to imposing their will and putting teams away. There is no question in my mind that North Carolina will make some runs on Monday night. They are too good and too talented not to. But with Michigan State having a raucous Detroit crowd willing them on at every opportunity, the Tar Heels will be hard pressed to “knock out” the Spartans.

For a team that gets lots of easy victories, being in a knock-down, drag-out fight can sometimes be challenging. Certainly, North Carolina has won close games this year (79-76 over Virginia Tech, 69-65 over Miami, for example), but they have only played 10 games decided by 10 points or less, going 6-4 in these contests. Michigan State, on the other hand, has been grinding out games all season long. The Spartans average point differential is 9.0 (72.0-63.0) and they are 12-2 in games decided by 10 points or less.

The point differential is obviously a double-edged sword. North Carolina’s shows its potential for dominance, which is why they are about a touchdown favorite on Monday night, and I don’t think anyone would walk away from Monday night completely shocked if North Carolina puts on a dominating performance; we’ve just seen it too often from them in the tournament. However, if Michigan State can battle and keep it close, I like the Spartans’ chances. They are used to playing in closer games and have a great record when it comes to pulling them out.

And that’s where the crowd comes in.

I saw first hand how much a crowd can will a team to stay in a game when the Spartans played in Bloomington this year. Michigan State is one of the finalists for the NCAA title, and Indiana fielded perhaps the worst team in school history. Yet, somehow, the Hoosiers were able to make it only a 5-point game, losing 64-59, with Indiana outscoring the Spartans 32-30 in the second half. With such a great disparity in talent, the Hoosiers used grit, determination, will, and the energy of the home crowd to fight until the end.

There is no question that while North Carolina is the more talented and explosive team, that Michigan State is far closer to the Tar Heels than Indiana was to Michigan State. A little more talent and Indiana might have pulled off the upset. For Michigan State, we have seen their grit, determination, and will — and we know how crazy the Ford Field crowd will be for them Monday night. I think all of those factors will help the Spartans keep it close; and if they do, as the stats prove, I think the Spartans have an advantage in a close game.

Okay, so now that we’ve run down three reasons why each team will win, it’s time to hop onto one side of the fence and choose which of these two teams will actually be the victor, and the 2009 NCAA Mens Basketball Champion, on Monday night. However, it’s not quite as easy as just picking one or the other.

My gut says that Tom Izzo’s game-planning brilliance, the Spartans’ grit, Kalin Lucas’ leadership, and the support of the Detroit crowd will keep this game close. And in a close game I like the Spartans, as I just mentioned. However, my head says that North Carolina has such a fierce combination of talent and focus that they are simply unbeatable by any team in college basketball right now. Yet, my heart says Michigan State because of my affinity for their coach and my desire to see the Big Ten gain back some of the prestige that has been lost in recent seasons.

It would be easy to go with my head on this one and make the “safe” pick. However, I’m going with the Spartans, and unlike during the games on Saturday night (when I picked UConn and UNC to win) I can actually cheer with my pick on Monday.

But in the end, I’m not just picking the Spartans because I want to. I saved a very important “why they will win” reason for the end, and here it is:

I trust Tom Izzo more in big games than I trust Roy Williams.

Both are great coaches — Hall of Famers, in fact — and both have won championships before. And while both coaches have had successes and failures in big spots, there is just something visceral about Tom Izzo’s fiery, underdog, energetic style that I buy into more than Roy Williams’ style. Unlike the analysis above, I don’t have lots of stats to back my support for Izzo up, and you are well within your right to say I am biased on this one. But I picked against Izzo in the Michigan State-Connecticut game, and I’m not about to do it again on Monday.

Plus, I think an overzealous North Carolina fan may have unwittingly jinxed the Tar Heels.

I just went to the Wikipedia pages for both Tom Izzo and Roy Williams to examine their career records for something quantitative to back up by claim of trusting Izzo more in big games.

Here is a screen shot of what the section on Izzo’s career coaching record looked like:

And here is a screen shot of what the section on Williams’ career coaching record looked like:

Notice anything funny about the Roy Williams page? Someone already edited it to say “National Championship” for this season. (If you go to the page now, it very well could be edited, but that’s why I did the screen capture. Readers of this site know that I like to have fun with Photoshop from time to time, but I promise you that this is exactly how the pages looked.)

Hmm…it’s 1:20 am Central Time on Sunday morning as I write this. Looks like somebody jumped the gun bit declaring a winner. And while it’s not the same as the New England Patriots copyrighting 19-0 before the Super Bowl, it’s still jinx-worthy in my book.

Add up North Carolina’s three reasons and the Game Predictor outcome, and then add up Michigan State’s three reasons plus Izzo over Williams, and the two teams are knotted at 4-4. Throw in the jinx and the tie is broken.

Prediction: Michigan State completes a storybook run to the National Championship by winning a close, hard-fought game on Monday night against the backdrop of a city that loves its Spartans, and certainly deserves some joy in the midst of its terrible economic woes.

I can’t wait for this one. It’s going to be one hell of a championship game.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Note: This post is from 2009. To view our 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:

• March Madness 2010 Schedule, Sites, and Tickets
• MSF Bracket Challenge
• Mens NCAA Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule, Announcers, Spreads
• Midwest Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• East Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• South Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• West Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• History of Final Four in Indianapolis
• Women’s NCAA Tournament Schedule, Sites, Tickets

——————–

This post will analyze the Villanova-North Carolina Final Four game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

Let’s make one thing clear right off the bat, just so there is no confusion: I want Villanova to win Saturday night.

In my original bracket I picked the Wildcats to lose in the Elite 8 to Pittsburgh (although I correctly reversed that in my preview last week) and picked North Carolina to make it to the title game before falling to UConn. Yet, while North Carolina is certainly fun to watch and I greatly respect their overall talents and abilities, there is just something special about how this emerging Villanova team is playing during the tournament.

They took UCLA behind the woodshed in round two and announced themselves as a tournament force to be reckoned with. Then, in the Sweet 16, they did college basketball fans everywhere a favor by kicking the snot out of Duke. And last week, Villanova and Pittsburgh treated us to the best game of the tournament, with Nova’s Scottie Reynolds providing the tournament’s most enduring moment thus far: his game-winner in the final seconds that propelled Villanova to Detroit and sent Pittsburgh home.

North Carolina has operated its way through the 2009 NCAA Tournament with surgical precision. After a close 25 or so minutes, they pulled away from LSU in Ty Lawson’s triumphant return from the toe injury that had led many people to question North Carolina coming into the tournament. Then they destroyed Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 and laid the hammer down on Oklahoma in the Elite 8.

Now these two teams, with their combined tournament margin of victory of 18.5 points, meet to decide who plays the winner of Michigan State-UConn for the NCAA title. A lot of people are expecting an easy North Carolina victory, and the Tar Heels are favored by 7.5; but Villanova has taught us during this postseason run that you underestimate the boys from Philly at your own risk.

Unfortunately for Villanova, North Carolina underestimated their Final Four opponent last year and got smoked in the process. With almost the exact same team back again this year, I do not think the Tar Heels will be taking anyone lightly.

Let’s take a quick look at the particulars for the Nova-UNC game on Saturday night and then proceed with the analysis and prediction.

Villanova-North Carolina Final Four Preview and Prediction

• Tickets: 2009 Final Four Tickets from StubHub
• Final Four Quick Preview
• Final Four Date: Saturday, April 4th
• TV: CBS (or March Madness On Demand)
• Villanova-UNC Game Time: 8:47 PM ET
• Location: Ford Field in Detroit, MI
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Spread: North Carolina -7.5
• Over-Under: 159
• ESPN Team Pages: Villanova | North Carolina

(FYI…the above spread and over-under are from BetUs on 3/31 at 7:30 am, so you may want to check there for the most up-to-date info if you see this later in the week. And I realize that this number is probably different from what Game Predictor shows below. I don’t know where ESPN gets that spread info.)

Now, as we always do in this spot, let’s take a look at the matchup between these two teams based on their season averages in the five statistical categories we have used to analyze every game thus far since the Sweet 16:

• Offensive Efficiency: North Carolina – 1.155 | Villanova – 1.076
• Defensive Efficiency: North Carolina – 0.932 | Villanova – 0.935
• Assist/TO Ratio: North Carolina – 1.416 | Villanova – 1.120
• Free Throw %: North Carolina – 0.765 | Villanova – 0.753
• Defensive Field Goal %: North Carolina – 0.414 | Villanova – 0.403

North Carolina’s numbers are pretty impressive aren’t they? One thing is for sure: this is the best matchup since the Sweet 16 in terms of free throw shooting.

Well we know from experience that Game Predictor will spit out North Carolina as a heavy favorite. The question is by how much. Let’s look:

• Odds to Win Game: North Carolina – 74.9% | Villanova – 25.1%
• Most Likely Final Score: North Carolina – 74.3 | Villanova – 67.7
• Odds to Cover Spread (Nova +7): North Carolina – 57.8% | Villanova – 42.2%
• Confidence Level: 4 Stars

So Game Predictor basically believes that if North Carolina and Villanova took the court to play their Final Four matchup ten times, that North Carolina would win seven or eight of them. And I do not disagree with that at all. However, as we know, they only play once. And there are two important reasons why Villanova absolutely has hope heading into Saturday:

1. 1985
2. April 5, 2008

The first reason, of course, refers to the legendary upset victory by Villanova over Georgetown in the 1985 NCAA Championship game. The Wildcats were seeded 8th and somehow found a way to overcome Patrick Ewing and the Hoyas. The second reason refers to last year’s Final Four, when North Carolina was absolutely demolished by Kansas 84-66. That North Carolina team was led by Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough, and Wayne Ellington. This year’s North Carolina team is led by Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough, and Wayne Ellington. If they are capable of throwing up that kind of egg in the Final Four once, does it not stand to reason that they are capable of doing it again?

And does Roy Williams really – I mean really — have your complete trust in the NCAA Tournament? How many times has this guy fallen below expectations in March? I understand that the expectations and the bar he set at Kansas and North Carolina have been ridiculously high, and Roy Williams has certainly compiled an impressive record and list of accomplishments, including Final Fours and Elite 8s and even one title. But If this North Carolina team, favored by most to win the title, falls just short of that goal, they will only be carrying on the postseason legacy of Roy Williams: close, but rarely (just once) a cigar.

Starting to feel good Villanova fans!?!

Well, calm down. The odds of winning are still not even close to being stacked in your favor.

But let’s look a little deeper and see if we can’t find some reasons why Villanova will win this game. Carolina is the prohibitive favorite, but nothing is guaranteed in sports, which is what makes them so great. So as we did with Michigan State-UConn, let’s look at three reasons why Villanova will win and then three reasons why they will not.

Three Reasons Why Villanova Can Beat North Carolina

1 — All you have to do is stop Ty Lawson

Take a look at the four losses North Carolina suffered this year and you begin to understand why so many people in Chapel Hill were worried about Ty Lawson’s toe heading into the tournament.

In North Carolina’s ACC Tournament loss to Florida State, Lawson did not play. Bobby Frasor did a wonderful job of filling in by going 0-1 from the field, scoring 2 points, grabbing 2 rebounds, and dishing out 1 assist…in 33 minutes, which surprisingly was not enough.

In North Carolina’s three regular season losses, all ACC contests to Boston College, Wake Forest, and Maryland, Lawson was not his usual all-around great self. In UNC’s loss to Maryland, Lawson did score 24 points, but had only two assists against four turnovers in 41 minutes of play. Against Wake Forest, a 92-89 loss for the Tar Heels, Lawson played 34 minutes and only scored 9 points on 4-12 from the field with 5 assists and 4 turnovers. And in North Carolina’s 85-78 loss to Boston College, Ty Lawson scored 10 points on 3-13 shooting with 4 assists and 4 turnovers.

The key to beating North Carolina is pretty simple: shut down Ty Lawson; and Villanova has very good guards, with experience playing against very good guards in the Big East. (More on this to come later.)

2 — Villanova has momentum and confidence

Villanova has beaten two good teams (UCLA and Duke) into submission and then pulled out a gritty, exciting win in the final seconds over one of the four or five best teams in the last country last weekend. Plus, Villanova has the Big East arrogance that they are well within their right to have, knowing that they duked it out in one of the best conferences ever this season. The Wildcats will not be intimidated by the mystique and 2009 reputation of mighty North Carolina.

To contrast, look at North Carolina’s last two opponents.

Sure, Oklahoma played a great game against Syracuse in the Elite 8, but that was just a week after they endured a knock-down, drag-out fight against a Michigan team that — I’m sorry Wolverine fans — just is not that good. And this came on the heels of a poor performance in the Big 12 Tournament and over the last few weeks of the season as the Sooners struggled to return to form after Blake Griffin’s injury. Plus, the Sooners relied a freshman guard in Willie Warren to help shoulder the scoring load, and he just was not up to the task.

In the Sweet 16, North Carolina took on a Gonzaga team that had been taken to the final seconds by Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are a good team, but by no means great. It had to be in the back of the Zags’ collective mind that they were within a hair of losing to Western Kentucky; how in the hell could they compete with one of the most talented teams in America?

Villanova will have no such self-doubt and will not be intimidated. And say what you will, but North Carolina dominated Oklahoma and Gonzaga as much mentally as they did physically and from an execution standpoint.

Villanova has an experienced backcourt led by a guy in Scottie Reynolds who is proving himself to be a player who comes through in big March moments. He is that one guy that every championship team needs who will come through in big situations, regardless of how well he is playing that night. Case in point: the Pitt game. Reynolds was 4-11 from the field and 0-3 from downtown. He had 1 assist and 4 turnovers. Yet he came through with the game-winning play.

Plus, Villanova is one of the few schools in America that can legitimately lay claim to a pedigree that includes one of the five or ten biggest upsets in the history of sports. The underdog role suits this school just fine. I think that matters. A lot.

Combine all of these individual components and Villanova can look North Carolina in the eye and not blink, and that is huge.

3 — If you are going to beat North Carolina, you better have a guy who can deliver an incredible individual performance.

Look at the evidence:

• 85-78 loss to Boston College: Tyrese Rice scores 25 points, grabs 8 boards, and dishes on 5 assists (and gets 22 points and 6 rebounds worth of help, plus 4-7 3-point shooting, from Rakim Sanders).
• 92-89 loss to Wake Forest: Jeff Teague scores 34 points on 9-17 shooting (3-4 from downtown) while grabbing 6 boards and dishing 4 assists.
• 88-85 loss to Maryland: Greivis Vasquez is sensational, scoring 35 points in 44 minutes of play on 13-24 shooting (5-10 from downtown). He also has 11 rebounds and 10 assists.
• 73-70 loss to Florida State: Toney Douglas scores 27 points on 10-18 shooting, plus 4 assists and 4 boards.

The purported Achilles’ Heel for North Carolina all season long has been their defense. They are prone to lapses every now and then, and on those nights individual players who are ready to step up can lead their team to victory. Does Villanova have a player capable of such a transcendent individual performance on a big stage?

We already mentioned him: Scottie Reynolds.

Reynolds popped for 40 points once already this season, in a road victory over Seton Hall. He scored 31 in a road win over Providence. He scored 27 in a dominating win for Villanova over a good Marquette team.

And if Reynolds is not completely on his game, or if Villanova needs two outstanding performances like Boston College had against UNC, the Wildcats have Dante Cunningham. Cunningham scored 31 points in a win over Syracuse this year and has numerous big games in big spots like his double-doubles against UCLA and Duke in the tournament.

Scottie Reynolds and Dante Cunningham are good enough to carry Villanova for a night and lead a victory, even over a team as good as North Carolina.

Three Reasons Why Villanova Cannot Beat North Carolina

1 — Both Scottie Reynolds and Dante Cunningham, as good as they are, have blemishes on their big game resume this year

As good as Scottie Reynolds and Dante Cunningham have proven themselves to be in some big spots this year, they have also played poorly in some of Villanova’s losses to good teams.

Cunningham had just 7 points and 6 rebounds in a 93-72 loss to West Virgnia earlier this year. He also was held to just 6 points and 3 rebounds in 14 minutes of play before fouling out against UConn. Granted, North Carolina does not have anyone like Hasheem Thabeet, but this is still a red flag.

For Reynolds’ part, he also also proven that he can shrink against good teams in big spots. In the Big East Tournament loss to Louisville, Reynolds scored 2 points on 1-6 shooting. In a loss to Texas early in the year he had 10 points on 2-7 shooting. And as well as he played in the clutch moments last weekend, Reynolds has not made more than 5 shots, or shot better than 50% from the field, in any NCAA Tournament game this year.

So while Reynolds and Cunningham are very good, sometimes great players, and are good more often than they are not, there is no margin for error on the part of either Saturday night. Scottie Reynolds and Dante Cunningham need to be Oustanding (yes, with a capital “O”) on for Villanova to have a chance against North Carolina. They have proven to be capable of such performances in big spots, but have also shown the capability to shrink in big moments as well.

Which Scottie Reynolds and Dante Cunningham will show up? The answer to that question will determine whether or not Villanova can compete.

2 — Shutting down Ty Lawson is no easy task

Yet another paradoxical dichotomy in this list of reasons. While it is true that the Tar Heels become a much more beatable team if Ty Lawson is having an off night, he very rarely has them. Look at Lawson’s game log for this season. He had terrible numbers against Georgia Tech and the Tar Heels still won by 30, but for the most part, Lawson has been very consistent outside of the four losses cited above.

And have you seen him play in the tournament? Is there anything that leads you to believe he won’t have a great game on Saturday?

In three tournament games, Lawson is 20-35 from the field, 14-16 from the line, and 7-11 from downtown. He has scored 23, 19, and 19 points in the three games he has played and has dished out 20 assists against 2 turnovers. And the final rankings of the last three Carolina opponents have been #20, #10, and #8. So he is doing this against solid competition, regardless of how intimidated they may have looked.

Simply put, Ty Lawson has been the best and most important player in the NCAA Tournament thus far.

Villanova has shown the ability to shut down good point guards. Just last weekend they held Levance Fields to only 10 points on 2-8 shooting, although he did have a 6/0 assist/turnover line. Against Syracuse earlier this year, they held Jonny Flynn to 5-17 shooting and only 12 points. Conversely, in a loss to UConn, AJ Price scored 29 points on 10-13 shooting and had 5 assists.

It is hard to predict Ty Lawson doing anything but having a stellar night. Villanova is capable of frustrating him and forcing Lawson to struggle, but it’s more of an I’ll-believe-it-when-I-see-it type proposition as far as I’m concerned. Ty Lawson has earned that trust with his play this season.

3 — There is a reason Villanova was a #3 seed: inconsistency

When Villanova is on their game, the Wildcats can obviously play with anybody in the country. However, they are also prone to having that game every now and then where they inexplicably play poorly and struggle.

For instance, after knocking off then-#20 Syracuse and then-#12 Marquette in back-to-back games in February, ‘Nova lost 93-72 to West Virginia. Furthermore, to begin December after a 12-1 start to the year, Villanova dropped 3 out of 5 games, losing to top-25 teams Marquette, Louisville, and UConn during the stretch while beating only Seton Hall and St. John’s. And after a thrilling win over Marquette in the Big East Tournament, the Wildcats were shellacked 69-55 by a Louisville team that was on an absolute roll.

I hate to say it, but I see some parallels between what happened in the Big East Tournament and what could happen on Saturday night.

The last four games of the season for Villanova:

• 77-60 dominant win at Notre Dame
• 97-80 dominant win over Providence
• 76-75 tough, hard-fought win over a very good Marquette team
• 69-55 loss to a streaking Louisville squad

The last four games of the tournament for Villanova:

• 89-69 dominant win over UCLA
• 77-54 dominant win over Duke
• 78-76 tough, hard-fought win over a very good Pitt team
• ??-?? ???? to a streaking North Carolina squad

Substitute the ?’s with the same result from the Louisville game and you being to understand my trepidation. And while I realize that UCLA and Duke are much better than Notre Dame and Providence, the fact remains that this is a troubling pattern for Villanova that I cannot get past when analyzing this game — no matter how much I want to pick the Wildcats.

So it should come as no surprise to you that I begrudgingly pick North Carolina to not just win the game Saturday night, but to cover the spread. And it should also come as no surprise that, just as I said after picking UConn to beat Michigan State, I hope I am wrong.

In both games Saturday night I will be cheering against my own picks. I want the underdogs Michigan State and Villanova to win, and I correctly picked them both to triumph as underdogs in the Elite 8. I just do not see in the stats, season history, or matchups, legitimate reasons to believe that they will be able to capture the magic for one more weekend.

Please Villanova fans, as I implored the Spartans fans to do, use the comment section to tell me why I am wrong and to give me hope heading into Saturday. I will be firmly in your corner, cheering loudly and hoping for a ‘Nova upset over the Tar Heels — I will just be very, very surprised if that hope turns into reality.

Of course, there was even less belief in 1985 and we all know how that turned out…

What do you think?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Note: This post is from 2009. To view our 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:

• March Madness 2010 Schedule, Sites, and Tickets
• MSF Bracket Challenge
• Mens NCAA Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule, Announcers, Spreads
• Midwest Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• East Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• South Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• West Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• History of Final Four in Indianapolis
• Women’s NCAA Tournament Schedule, Sites, Tickets

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This post will analyze the North Carolina-Gonzaga game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

There were plenty of questions surrounding North Carolina coming into the 2009 NCAA Tournament and almost every single one of them revolved around one player: Ty Lawson. The ankle injury suffered by Lawson towards the end of the season left many people wondering just how effective he would be come tournament time and whether or not North Carolina could reach the Final Four without their floor general at full strength.

I think Lawson has proven that he’s just fine with his stellar performance against LSU.

After halftime, Ty Lawson scored 21 of his 23 points and led North Carolina to an 84-70 victory. The Tar Heels pulled away late against and LSU team that came ready to play, but just did not have the talent to match up with the mighty Tar Heels.

The question for Gonzaga heading into Friday night’s game is whether or not they have the talent to match up, especially against a North Carolina team that will now have an even healthier Lawson leading from the point.

Let’s look at the particulars as you prepare for a night of March Madness viewing on Friday, and then we’ll jump into the prediction.

North Carolina v Gonzaga Sweet 16 Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: South Region Sweet 16 Tickets
• South Regional Breakdown
• Date: Friday, March 27
• TV Time: 9:57 PM on CBS
• Site: FedEx Forum in Memphis, TN
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Point Spread: North Carolina -8 1/2
• Over-Under: 162 1/2
• My prediction: North Carolina

Here is how UNC and Gonzaga stack up based on the same statistical categories we’ve used for each of the seven other Sweet 16 posts published this week:

• Offensive Efficiency: North Carolina – 1.154 | Gonzaga – 1.125
• Defensive Efficiency: North Carolina – 0.931 | Gonzaga – 0.888
• Assist/TO Ratio: North Carolina – 1.401 | Gonzaga – 1.368
• Free Throw %: North Carolina – 0.768 | Gonzaga – 0.715
• Defensive Field Goal %: North Carolina – 0.411 | Gonzaga – 0.374

Considering the seed differential and UNC’s strength of schedule advantage, it is no surprise that they are the heavy favorites as far as Game Predictor is concerned. Here is how the Game Predictor prediction stacked up:

• Odds to Win Game: North Carolina – 77.4% | Gonzaga – 22.6%
• Most Likely Final Score: North Carolina – 73.0 | Gonzaga – 65.9
• Odds to Cover Spread (Gonzaga +8.5): North Carolina – 52.8% | Gonzaga – 47.2%
• Confidence Level: 4 Stars

So Game Predictor is not quite as confident in North Carolina as it is in Louisville to beat Arizona, but still a pretty resounding vote of confidence for the Tar Heels. I agree, and would take UNC with the points in this one. This Tar Heels team is extremely talented, and while Gonzaga is a very good team, they are not a great team. I think with Lawson healthy, and the superb cast of players like Tyler Hansbrough and Wayne Ellington around him, this Carolina team is going to be very tough out for anyone, let along the Zags.

What I do like about Gonzaga is that they have great scoring balance. No player on their team averages more than Josh Heytvelt’s 14.9 points per game, but Matt Bouldin, Austin Daye, Jeremy Pargo, Micah Downs, and Steven Gray all average at least 9.2 And I am a big fan of Mark Few. No, he is clearly not on the level of Roy Williams, but he is a coach with plenty of experience getting an underdog hyped up and ready to play against a big favorite. Gonzaga has been in a unique position this season and over the past few years, no longer being the underdog just looking to pull an upset or two. Tournament success is now expected of them. I think Gonzaga will embrace the underdog role they are in Friday night and bring everything they’ve got.

But if both of these teams bring everything they’ve got, North Carolina is still ten points better, and I think that’s what we’ll see. Ty Lawson, as he proved against LSU, is a tremendous difference maker. As long as UNC does not fall into one of their games where they just refuse to play defense and get stops, they can put Gonzaga away in the second half. I actually think this game will look a lot like the LSU win.

A great season for Gonzaga falls short of the Elite 8, and the Tar Heels roll on, one step away from where everyone thought they’d be when the season started: the Final Four.