Like why, for example, Marshawn Lynch finds it necessary to stop running when he hits the line of scrimmage (and killing my fantasy season in the process) or when we can expect Favre’s new Wrangler ads? So, what do ya got, Greg and Dan? (Note: actual exchange forthcoming):

Dan: Man, there’s a lot to like about Thomas Jones…and what he likes is a lot of blocking up front.
Greg: The Jets are up to 300 yards on offense early in the 3rd Quarter. Now that’s very, very productive.

But I digress. Let’s talk about baseball.

The fellas in St. Louis have been quiet on the acquisition front since they inked Trever Miller to a $500K incentive-laden deal and traded for Khalil Greene (taking on the entire $6.5 million he’s owed). Brian Fuentes remains firmly within Tony La Russa’s sights, but, GM John Mozeliak was more guarded in his assessment:

“We’ve said all along that if there’s a chance we can address the closer role, we’re going to try…We’re open and willing to explore. We also are not giving up hope on some other fronts as well should we not be able to accomplish this.”

I would have a tough time drinking the Kool-Aid if they commit 3 years and $40+ 30 million to a 33 year old reliever. Not to belabor the point, but even with the bullpen problems of 2008, I don’t see the point to signing a big-ticket closer. It’s such a volatile position, and we already have the arms to get those tough outs on the team. I’m willing to ride the Perez/Motte/Kinney train rollercoaster into next Spring and see what happens. If they can’t get the job done, it’s not like there won’t be a closer available when Pittsburgh or San Francisco or Washington are having their annual fire sales in June. I simply don’t understand locking up a closer, who’ll pitch 70 innings during a good year, to a long-term deal…unless the name on the back of his jersey reads “Rivera” or “Sutter”.

Regarding our new shortstop, I was lukewarm on Khalil to begin with, and I’m still not very optimistic, but…at least there’s a bit of offensive upside with him (certainly something you can’t say about new Orioles SS Cesar Izturis). Still, there’s not a whole lot to like about Greene. His defense is not as good as Izturis’, but Cesar played above his ability last season, and I imagine there will be some regression with his age and a switch back to the DH league. Thus, any defensive “drop-off” from Izturis to Greene should be limited.

But this trade wasn’t about defense. No, the real reason the Cards picked up this “close-out special” is the career .427 SLG Greene brings with him (as compared to a baffling .331(!) from Izturis). Unfortunately, that slugging percentage does NOT come equipped with any ability to reach base or hit a baseball with any frequency.

Khalil Greene had a nice rookie campaign in 2004, hitting .273/.349/.446 with 15 HR and 65 RBI over 139 games (he finished 2nd in the RoY voting). Since that season, though, he has posted an OBP above .300 exactly once, and had the worst season of his career in 2008, playing in only 105 games and hitting .213/.260/.339…brutal! Worth noting however, Greene was nearly as valuable offensively last year in 105 games as Izturis was in 135, (67 OPS+ for Cesar, 64 for Greene). That said, I think the team is getting a player in Greene who provides an overall upgrade at the position (provided he can stay healthy…and thats questionable). I don’t think a line of .245/.300/.450 wouldn’t be unrealistic to expect, and that would be a nice addition to the lineup. As of December 15th, I remain cautiously optimistic. To be continued…

Finally, before I go, there’s an intriguing name floating around in Free Agentland as of last week. The Orioles did not offer a contract to Daniel Cabrera before the December 13th deadline (I guess because they felt comfortable with that veritable pitching stockpile they have featuring…um…Jeremy Guthrie…Garrett Olson…and Brian Burres? I’ll say!). Admittedly, there’s not a lot to like about Cabrera, but let’s look at the positives, shall we?

He’ll only be 28 in May of next year, and he’s pitched 384.3 innings over the last two seasons. Granted, his ERA was north of 5.00 both years, but a portion of that is certainly due to the level of competition in the AL East coupled with having the Baltimore Orioles play behind him. Tough times are certain to follow in those circumstances. Also on the plus side, Cabrera can strike out a lot of guys. 651 over his five-year career to be exact.

Now, Daniel Cabrera is not a prospect, but he does have potential given the right situation. His control, which has never been great, was terrible last season, and he generally seemed like he was struggling all the time. Nonetheless, he’s shown flashes of brilliance in the past, and has the ability to strike out 150-160 hitters over 180-200 innings in a season. I don’t see why a ticket out of Baltimore and some advice from Dave Duncan couldn’t turn things around, even slightly.

A move to the Senior Circuit, with the luxury of facing the pitcher 2-3 times/game could probably shave 0.5-1.0 run off of Cabrera’s ERA, making him a younger, cheaper Braden Looper, with a better ability to miss bats. Cabrera made $2.87 million last season, and probably shouldn’t expect too much of a raise. Do I like him on a 1-year deal at $3 million or 2 years at $6.5? Yes I do. Very much, thank you.

Well, what do you all think?

1. Do we need Brian Fuentes’ left arm to reach the post-season in ‘09 or can the team walk a tight rope with the youth movement?
2. Should Mozeliak kick the tires on Daniel Cabrera or should we keep looking for another arm in the rotation?

Roster spots are going fast!

UPDATE: Per MLBTradeRumors, It seems 11 teams have expressed interest in signing Cabrera. The only specific team mentioned is the Pittsburgh Pirates. I would hope the Cardinals are among the remaining 10.

The initial thought was that Miller would sign a two year deal but reports are now stating that Miller and the Cards have agreed on a one year deal. Compensation appears to be in the 2 million dollar range assuming Miller meets certain performance incentives.

Miller has been very consistent over the past 6 seasons posting 60 plus innings in each. Miller has a lifetime ERA of 4.43 in 422 1/3 innings. Millers 2008 stats for the AL Champion Tampa Bay Rays were a little better than his career stats. Miller posted a 4.15 ERA in 68 appearances with 44 strikeouts and 20 walks while surrendering only 2 home runs.

Miller has been dominant against lefties to the tune of a .209 batting average, a .305 on base percentage and a .308 slugging percentage.

I can see Miller being very comfortable playing for Tony Larussa. Tony is known to pick his spots and his match ups very carefully. They don’t always work out but Tony is very consistent in how he uses his left handed relievers.

I Feel the Cards may look to add additional left handed relief as we head into the Winter meetings next week. I will be very curious to see how the Cards address the rest of the pen as well as the holes at second and short.

Was this a good move by the Cards, I guess time will tell. I can say that 2 million is not a huge investment as long as it provides the stability we need from the left side.

What say ye about this move and whats your thoughts about how MO is going to shape the rest of the team.

coop92 is a contributing author to Midwest Sports Fans, as well as the editor at Midwest Sports Junkies.  Check out his site for additional analysis of the Cardinals, the BCS, and Missouri Tigers football.

Before getting to Miller, though, I thought you would be interested to know that there was an actual signing by the team this week…two signings, in fact: Charlie Manning and Ian Ostlund. Both are 29 year old lefties who have spent most of their careers in the minors.

Manning actually got his first shot in the Big Leagues last season, pitching 42 innings for the Washington Nationals, and held lefties to an opponent batting line of .203/.284/.392 (that’s: Average/On-Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage, in case you’re wondering), while striking out 37. Unfortunately, he also walked 31 hitters.

Ostland, on the other hand, has no experience in the “Big Show,” having spent all 8 of his pro seasons at various levels of the Detroit Tigers system. In 2008 he had a nice season with AAA Toledo, striking out 77, while walking only 17, batters in 69.2 innings. At that level and his age, however, those numbers lose a lot of their shine. Hopefully the team can get a few solid innings out of at least one of these guys. The two signings resulted in Mike Parisi and his 8.22 ERA being outrighted. (Good times when he was on the mound last season.)

Alright, now let’s take a closer look at the “poor-man’s Brian Fuentes.”

Trever Miller will turn 36 years old in May of the coming season. He has 10 years of major league experience, most recently with Tampa Bay, and he was designated a Type B Free Agent after the 2008 season. I’m a bit hazy on the finer points of the Free Ageny rules, but I believe that when Miller signs with a different team this off-season, the Rays will be given a “sandwich” draft pick, between the first and second rounds of the June Draft. Before returning to Tampa Bay in ‘08, where he had spent the 2004 and 2005 seasons, he pitched for NL Central Division rival Houston, where he struck out 102 batters (against just 36 walks) in 97 innings pitched over two seasons.

It is unquestionable that Miller is an above average lefty-specialist, or LOOGY, as they’re often called. His career line against left-handed hitters is .235/.327/.382, and he was even better than that in 2008, with lefties hitting just .209/.305/.308 against him.

One other thing is clear about Miller’s game: He’s learned how to strike out big league hitters. After Miller made the jump from the AL to the NL in 2006, his number of strikeouts per plate appearance jumped 10%. Now, that isn’t completely unexpected as pundits refer to the NL as the “Senior Circuit” for a reason (I think it’s because Jaime Moyer pitches there…), so one could expect his strikeouts to increase against weaker competition. However, he’s been able to keep that number of Ks/PA, at age 35, consistently higher than it was in his mid-twenties.

Also, and I promise this will be the last statistic I mention in this piece, Miller actually pitched his best baseball last season if you look at “FIP” – which stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. This is a great metric that “helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.” The reason I like this stat so much is because it takes defense out of the Earned Run Average equation, thus not punishing or rewarding a hurler for the performance of his teammates. FIP is even more valuable when considering a Free Agent who, likely, will not have the same defense behind him that he did in the previous season. Anyway, all of this is to say that, in 2008, Miller’s ERA was 4.15, which is very average, but his FIP was 3.33, which is very much above-average. Unfortunatley, 2008 was the only season that Miller posted a FIP that was lower than his ERA, meaning that he’s actually been *slightly* worse than his ERA would indicate.

I think the final question, then, becomes: “Stew, you’ve written 3,000 words about various statistics and things I really don’t care about…Just tell me whether or not I should get excited about this guy!”

Ok, that’s fair. And my answer is…Yes, I think he would be a nice addition to the bullpen.

The Rays bought out his contract for $400,000 rather than exercise a $2 million option, but that’s mostly because they have plenty of young lefties, like J.P. Howell and phenom David Price, rather than a knock on his ability. The market for average-to-above average LOOGYs is generally old and practically non-existent, so even at 36, Miller is capable, and brings plenty of experience with him. He’ll probably command a 2-year deal, maybe around $5-6 million total, and I believe we’ll have him on the roster early next week.

Two last notes before I go watch the Rams get blown out by the Bears:

• The Giants are negotiating with Edgar Renteria. As a general rule of thumb, I prefer not to pursue any of the same players as Brian Sabean. If he wants to sign a player that’s a good enough reason NOT to sign him if you ask me. Jeez…that guy, Sabean. He’s like the anti-Theo Epstein.
• The Dodgers are going to let lefty reliever Joe Beimel leave. He had a great season in 2008, posting a 2.02 ERA in 49 innings. He doesn’t strike out as many guys as Miller, and does walk his share of hitters, but he is much younger at 31. Beimel has drawn interest from the Mets, Reds, Tigers, and Rockies, in addition to the Cardinals. MLBTradeRumors says he is looking for a 3-year deal.