The first time these two teams played each other was in Week 14, and the Giants won the game 37-34. That win set them up to stay alive in the NFC East, and gave them a shot to win it this week.

Eli Manning and Tony Romo (Tom Fox/The Dallas Morning News)

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are coming off a loss against Philadelphia in a game that turned out to be meaningless in the playoff race. The part of the game that concerned Cowboys fans was the fact that Tony Romo bruised his throwing hand after following through on the helmet of an Eagles defender. He is going to play in this game, and it will be interesting to see how much the injury affects his passes.

Dallas has been on the decline since their controversial loss in Arizona in Week 13 in which Jason Garrett iced his own kicker. They followed up that game with a loss to the Giants, and then beat the Bucs before losing to the Eagles last week. They could have wrapped up the division already, but their shortcomings are the reason why they are in a win or go home situation.

The ‘Boys are without DeMarco Murray as he is out for the season, so Felix Jones will have to step up this week. With Romo having the bruised hand, Jones will have to attack the Giants’ 22nd ranked rush defense. However, he has been nursing a hurt hamstring, so he will have to play through the pain in order to help his team.

New York Giants

The Giants are 2-5 in their last seven games, but they still find themselves with a chance to win the weak NFC East. They easily took care of the Jets last week, 29-14, which was a must-win for the Giants. If they lost, the Eagles would have a chance to win the division, so now the Giants control their own destiny.

The defense for New York could get immense help with the expected return of Osi Umenyiora, who has been out with ankle and knee problems. His return could help bring pressure on Romo, who had four touchdowns and no interceptions in the first meeting between the two teams.

Cowboys-Giants Prediction

After last week, it seems that the Giants are the better team. They looked sharp against the Jets, while the Romo-less Cowboys could get nothing going against the Eagles.

The only problem I have with the Giants is that they have been inconsistent all year, as evident by their four game losing streak in the middle of the season.

The Cowboys have had their mental toughness questioned by Emmitt Smith, but I feel that they will pull through on Sunday night.

Prediction: Cowboys 31 | Giants 27

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One, you are in your league’s championship round and looking for some advice as you try to make the most important lineup decisions of the season. We congratulate you, and we’re here for you. Skip ahead and start soaking in the analysis as you go for your league’s equivalent of The Shiva.

Two, you are in your league’s semifinal round, which means that you play your championship in Week 17. We’re still happy to help you make lineup decisions, but just know that we vehemently disagree with how your league is setup and blame you personally for going along with it.

Or three, you are devastated after a bad beat in Week 15 and engaging in the masochistic act of still reading fantasy football analysis even though you have nothing left to play for. This is pathetic and you should should be ashamed of yourself. Get over it man (or woman). Still though, we feel your pain. We’ve been there. So we welcome your wandering eyes as well.

I suppose you could also be in some kind of keeper league that uses the consolation bracket to help determine next year’s draft order (something we do highly encourage as a great idea) or a league in which money is doled out for third place (a less great idea). Either way, we group you with the first set of folks who still need advice even in Week 16.

Okay, onto this week’s Start/Sit picks…for anyone and everyone who may have stumbled upon this post today.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em QB – Matt Moore

Matt Moor-ino has been very solid the past seven games for which he’s been healthy, putting up at least 13 points in six of them. He’s not at all a high-profile name, but if you don’t have a top 12 QB, or Tim Tebow, I would look at giving Moore the nod in Week 16.

His best WR, Brandon Marshall, has been a TD-machine as of late, and they will also be playing the porous New England passing defense.

If you don’t have another option, look at Moore. You might even be able to pick him up off of the waiver wire.

Matt Moore fantasy football Week 16 projection: 285 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 30 yards rushing

Other Start Em QBs:

• Tim Tebow – On the road in Buffalo…depending on weather…he may RUSH for 100 yards…and throw in a few TDs as well.
• Mike Vick and Tony Romo – Let’s just say, I don’t think there will be a lot of great defense in this game on Saturday.

Sit Em – Ryan Fitzpatrick

Hopefully, you got off of the Fitzpatrick bandwagon in week six…but he is still the #12 ranked fantasy QB and presents a LITTLE value from week to week based on matchups.

Not this week.

The Denver defense is incredibly over-rated (They are ranked 22nd overall, Tebow-haters. That’s a fact. Don’t try to argue against it.), but they have been much better against mediocre offenses. Fitzpatrick should have plenty of trouble against Denver’s speedy linebackers. Most of Buffalo’s offense has come on the ground lately, anyways…don’t expect that to change in week 16.

Ryan Fitzpatrick fantasy football Week 16 projection: 225 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other Sit Em QBs:

• Andy Dalton – This is not your “beginning-of-the-year-Cardinals-secondary” (stats forthcoming).
• Carson Palmer – We should all just sit him out of principle at this point, don’t you think?

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em RB – CJ Spiller

Spiller has had GREAT days two of the last three weeks, including his monstrous 28-point performance last week. If the weather is bad in Buffalo this weekend, look for Spiller to have another breakout.

On wet/slippery/cold fields, the offense ALWAYS has the advantage – especially shifty playmakers like CJ Spiller.

CJ Spiller fantasy football Week 16 projection: 75 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 50 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other Start Em RBs:

• Kendall Hunter – Look for Hunter (who has looked absolutely AWESOME at times) to carry a little larger load down the stretch run of the season as Jim Harbaugh tries to keep Frank Gore fresh for the post-season.
• DeAngelo Williams – Favorable matchup against Tampa Bay, and plus, doesn’t he seem to KILL everybody in the fantasy playoffs like every single year?

Sit Em RB – Marshawn Lynch

Man. What a tough one. I absolutely LOVE Beast Mode. He’s been an absolute fantasy stud the past several weeks. This brings us to the age-old quandary, “Do you play the stud, or do you sit him because of the matchup?”

98% of the time, I would say you should always play the stud. But this year’s San Francisco run defense is FAR from ordinary. Through 14 weeks games, they have not allowed one single rushing touchdown all year!

It’s possible you have NO other options at RB and are forced to start Lynch, but if you have 2 or 3 other guys you like, don’t hesitate to sit Lynch against one of the best run defenses ever – that’s not hyperbole.

Marshawn Lynch fantasy football Week 16 projection: 60 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 12 receiving yards, 0 TDs

Other Sit Em RBs:

• Mike Tolbert – I think Mathews gets most of the touches this week.
• Ryan Grant – The Bears’ defense is great, and they will keep Grant blocked in all day.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em WRs

Start Em WR – Plaxico Burress

A complete hunch…but I think this is one of those weeks where he has like 4 catches for 28 yards…and TWO touchdowns.

He’s been pretty quiet lately, and the Giants will definitely be focusing on stopping the Jets’ running game. I think the Jets will counter by trying to give Sanchez some easier throws…and as bad as he is at times, Sanchez can throw that fade on the sideline very well. Look for Plax to get several looks in the red zone this week.

Plaxico Burress fantasy football Week 16 projection: 4 receptions, 28 yards, 2 TDs

Other Start Em WRs:

• DeSean Jackson, Laurent Robinson, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant – Yes, I’m predicting at least 10 points for ALL of these WRs this week.
• DeMariyus Thomas – He’s actually the #1 WR in fantasy over the last three weeks. Tebow loves him, and he should have another good day in Buffalo this week.
• Victor Cruz – Read below.

Sit Em WR – Hakeem Nicks

Darrelle Revis is an awesome CB…but he’s slightly less awesome when he has to move inside and cover the slot WR. I expect Revis to stay outside and try to shut down the Giants’ deep threat this week. Victor Cruz will be the primary beneficiary as Eli will have to check down to him constantly.

Nicks MIGHT get free on one or two deep balls, but if he doesn’t (or if he drops them when perfectly thrown, like he did last week), he will be a fantasy disappointment in Week 16.

Hakeem Nicks fantasy football Week 16 projection: 4 receptions, 45 yards, 0 TDs

Other Sit Em WRs:

• Brandon Lloyd – Against Pittsburgh AND he’s banged up AND the Rams have QB issues.
• Reggie Wayne – I’m finally turning on him…he’s just nothing without Peyton Manning. It’s a good thing it took me sixteen weeks…

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em TEs

Start Em Tight End – Greg Olsen

Cam LOVES his tight ends in the red zone, and look for Olsen to be the recipient this week.

Greg Olsen fantasy football Week 16 projection: 3 receptions, 40 yards, 1 TD

Sit Em Tight End – Owen Daniels

The big fella is banged up, and I expect Houston to pull him as soon as they can tonight against the Colts. If they get up big, look for all of Houston’s studs to sit.

Owen Daniels fantasy football Week 16 projection: 2 receptions, 25 yards, 0 TDs

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em D/STs

Start Em Defense – ARIZONA CARDINALS

This is my game-changing pick of the week.

Did you know that the Cardinals defense has been improving all year, and that in the last seven weeks, they have only allowed EIGHT touchdowns.

I’ll let you guess where that ranks, league-wide.

Anyway, they will be playing a good Cincinnati team, but a team whose offense is definitely not “lights out” by any means.

If you don’t have one of the top three defenses, go ahead and swoop up the Arizona defense…to the surprise of everyone. And then dominate them this week to win your league.

Sit Em Defense – Detroit

All flash, no substance…especially against a rejuvenated San Diego offense. I would stay away from BOTH defenses in this game.

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Best of luck in Week 16 everyone! We’ll be here all week answering questions in the comment section, and we will have our weekly live chat on Saturday this week. We’ll see you then!

In my league of 14 teams, I finished right in the middle of the pack in terms of points…but because I had the third most points scored on me, I missed the playoffs…by a lot.

I finished second to last.

Lame.

Sometimes, fantasy football goes that way. I will spare you my three heart-breaking losses of the year because, quite frankly, we all have them…and nobody else cares.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Nobody cares Jon except for certain other people in that same league who finished in first place with an 11-2 record despite only scoring the 6th-most points but having by far the least points scored against.

DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS!]

Let’s get to this week.

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25. Why? Because if you have a guy in the top 20…you should be thinking about starting him anyway. I’m not going to sit here and tell you “enlightening” information like, “LeSean McCoy is going to score points this week!”

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em QB: Tim Tebow (at NE)

He’s tied for 18th among QBs…AND HE’S ONLY PLAYED EIGHT GAMES!

If you don’t believe in Tebow yet (and by that, I mean in terms of fantasy football), you probably never will.

Tebow will be playing against the New England Patriots and their league-worst defense. It should also be mentioned that for the first time all year, John Fox was complimentary of Tebow’s passing this past week. He admitted that Tebow is improving a lot, and they will be able to start trusting him more and more in the passing game. This is great news for Tebow-owners.

Will The Broncos win this week? I’m not sure, but that doesn’t matter for your fantasy team.

Tebow will go crazy like he did two weeks ago against Minnesota. New England’s pass defense is ranked dead last in the league. Start Tebow with confidence.

Tim Tebow fantasy football Week 15 projection: 260 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT; 80 rushing yards, 1 TD

Other Start Em QBs for Week 15:

• Tony Romo – Tampa Bay is ranked 27th in the league against the pass, and Romo finally has four legitimate receiving weapons now that Miles Austin is back. Add this to the fact that they just lost DeMarco Murray, and I expect Romo to be the #1 QB of Week 15.
• Matt Stafford – Playing against Oakland (Carson Palmer…you can LOL right now). They are awful.
• Andy Dalton – Love his matchup against St. Louis. Cincinnati needs a win right now, and Dalton and AJ Green should make beautiful music in the dome on Sunday.

Sit Em QB: Mark Sanchez (at Philadelphia)

Mark Sanchez is, unbelievably, the 10th ranked QB in all of fantasy right now. Don’t be fooled though.

Sanchez has padded his stats against poor pass defenses. He put up at least 17 points against Dallas, Oakland, Miami, New England, and Buffalo. None of those teams are ranked in the top 14 in the league against the pass. Against Baltimore, Jacksonville, Denver, and Washington, he failed to break THIRTEEN.

The Eagles aren’t a great pass defense, but they are ranked 12th in the league. The way you beat the Eagles is on the ground.
Once you factor Shonn Greene’s resurgence into the picture, Sanchez is a must-sit in week 15.

Mark Sanchez fantasy football Week 15 projection: 180 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other Sit Em QBs for Week 15:

• Alex Smith – I really hope you weren’t planning on starting him. He’s been terrible lately, AND he’s playing the Steelers. Good luck with that, Mr. Smith.
• Matt Ryan – He’s the most hit or miss QB in fantasy. He could very well have a big game, especially if Julio Jones stops dropping the ball, but I think he’s a miss this week. Jacksonville has the 4th best defense in the league against the pass, and both teams are playing off of a short week on Thursday night. Stay away from Matty-Ice this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Jon, you picking Tebow as your start ‘em QB this week is the most predictable choice of 2011. It’s also correct.

Picking Sanchez as the sit ‘em QB though? Boy, I don’t know. I certainly do not agree that he a “must sit”. Do you really trust Philly and its defense that much? Even if Shonn Greene does the heavy lifting, the Jets still like to pass in the red zone.  I don’t love Sanchez, and he’s certainly not a “must start” by any means, but he does have 7 TDs over the last three games. I don’t care who they are against, that’s good. Let’s put it this way: you could do worse.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em RBs

Start Em RB: Ryan Grant (at Kansas City)

After losing Greg Jennings last week, I have the feeling that Green Bay will start playing a little bit more conservatively late in games. Fortunately for them, Ryan Grant appears to be peaking at the right time.

It always takes a while to fully recover from injury, and Grant appeared to be at top form last week.

Look for Green Bay to start shortening games in the second half as the season ends. They will definitely start this week against Kansas City and their atrocious run defense.

Ryan Grant fantasy football Week 15 projection: 150 total yards, 1 TD

Other Start Em RBs for Week 15:

• Shonn Greene AND LaDainian Tomlinson – Don’t be freaked out that they might steal each other’s points…BOTH players should be good for more then 10 this week against Philadelphia.
• Chris Johnson – Against Indianapolis in a game that really doesn’t matter? (Tennessee is basically out of the playoffs at this point) Come on…I think we all know that this is the type of game that Chris Johnson will EXPLODE in.

Sit Em RB: Rashard Mendenhall (v San Francisco)

I will let Jerod confirm this one by explaining to you once again how impossible it is to run on San Francisco.

Rashard Mendenhall Projections: 60 total yards

Other Sit Em RBs for Week 15:

• Ryan Mathews – Tough matchup against Baltimore. San Diego will have to air it out to beat the Ravens.
• DeAngelo Williams – Houston is great against the run as well. I actually like Jonathan Stewart a little bit this week – he’s the Panthers’ threat to catch the ball out of the backfield – but stay away from DeAngelo Williams in Week 15.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Wow, I pretty much agree with everything here. I’m not as high on Grant as you are, but I certainly think he’s worthy of playing for the exact reasons you explained.

As for Mendenhall, San Francisco still has not allowed 1,000 total rushing yards this year – they give up just 70.5 rushing yards per game – and have not allowed a single rushing touchdown. Sure, that second stat is a bit fluky (everyone else has allowed at least five) but you can’t even be in a position to have it unless your run D is awesome. I would sit Mendy too. If he scores, oh well. Can you really be upset with yourself?

Other running backs who simply have to be in your starting lineups because of their matchups:

• Felix Jones – yes, Felix Jones. Dallas is playing Tampa Bay, a team that has essentially quit on the season and can’t stop anyone.
• Cedric Benson – the Rams can’t stop anyone from running either.
• Roy Helu – He’s on fire, has Shanahan’s trust, and gets to face a Giants’ D that rushes the passer but barely passes the rushers.
• Arian Foster and Ben Tate – Carolina’s run D is that bad.
• Beanie Wells – Cleveland can defend the pass, at least statistically, in large part because they can’t defend the run.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em WRs

Start Em WR: Demaryius Thomas (v NE)

New England, as I covered before, is just atrocious against the pass. World-renowned Patriots fan Bill Simmons even thinks that Julian Edelman is their BEST defensive back.

Thomas has quickly become Tebow’s favorite target in the end zone ever since he returned from injury. Look for Thomas to have a BIG day again in Week 15.

Demaryius Thomas fantasy football Week 15 projection: 8 catches for 140 yards and 2 TDs

Bonus Start Em WR: James Jones (at KC)

Usually, I only give you one guy that I’m super strong on, but I felt that this was too important to skip over.

The Greg Jennings injury will not hurt the Packers too badly; they will just spread around the points a little more. Look for James Jones (and Jordy Nelson) to have a huge day in Jennings’ absence.

James Jones fantasy football Week 15 projection: 6 catches for 120 yards and 1 TD

Other Start Em WRs for Week 15:

• AJ Green – Big day for the Cincinnati passing game on the turf in St. Louis. I expect AJ to catch AT LEAST two bombs in this game.
• EVERY wide receiver for the Saints and Vikings playing in Minnesota this week – Both teams are terrible against the pass…both teams have tons of speed…both teams are playing inside. Yay, free points.

Sit Em WR: Roddy White (v JAX)

I hate his matchup, and I hate his QB this week. The only receiver I like for the Falcons this week against Jacksonville is Tony Gonzalez. I would stay away from Roddy AND Julio Jones actually, but Roddy is the guy that’s ranked in the top fifteen, so that is why he is my sit ‘em wide receiver for Week 15.

Roddy White fantasy football Week 15 projection: 4 catches, 50 yards, 0 TD

Other Sit Em WRs for Week 15:

• Michael Crabtree – Won’t do much against the Steelers this week.
• DeSean Jackson – Revis Island.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I was going to say that’s scary how much we are agreeing this week, but then I got down to Roddy White and realized that we do disagree on something. I’m not a huge fan of White’s upside this week, but I do like his consistency. Look at those last three games (all with TDs). That’s tough to sit in the playoffs.

Let me say this about Demaryius Thomas though: be careful. He is still a rookie with questionable hands. And if he hadn’t caught that late TD from Tebow, all people would be talking about regarding him is all the drops early in the game. Can he handle the pressure of a game this big? I like him. He has explosive potential because of his talent and the matchup. Just be careful.

Other guys I particularly like this week include:

• Mike Williams of Tampa – Dallas’ secondary is pretty poor.
• Nate Washington and Damian Williams against Indianapolis.
• Antonio Brown‘s underrated consistency against San Francisco.
• Laurent Robinson – I know that Dallas has all of its weapons back, but they did last week too and he exploded again. He’s not flash in the pan. Romo loves him.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em TEs

Start Em Tight End: Jermichael Finley (at KC)

The irony here is that if you have Jermichael Finley, you probably didn’t advance in your fantasy playoffs after his goose egg from last week. However, I think he will get much more involved in the passing attack now that Greg Jennings is out, and he should have his typical explosive day that he gets once a month.

Jermichael Finley fantasy football Week 15 projection: 95 yards, 2 TDs

(Yes, everybody, I’m well aware that I predicted at least three receiving TDs for the Packers after I said they would run the ball more. I don’t care. I expect all of the throwing to be done in the first half, and then Grant to dominate in the second.)

Sit Em Tight End: Vernon Davis (at PIT)

As you well know, I’m pretty high on the Steelers’ pass defense. This game will be ugly one way or the other, and nobody on the 49ers (outside of their running backs) will have a big game offensively.

Jerod’s thoughts:

What, no “other guys” to start and sit? Come on Jon! This is Week 15!

By the way, I agree on both Finley and Davis. You’d have to have balls of steel to start Finley this week, but those who made it this far probably do.

A couple of other names to consider:

• I know that Aaron Hernandez no longer gets the red zone looks in New England, but there is still value in a tight end who catches 4-5 balls per week and gets 50-70 yards. Plus, he’s due for a TD one of these days right?
• Jake Ballard continues to be a solid under-the-radar selection. He should be as well this weekend against Washington.

Guys not to consider:

• Dallas Clark caught one ball last week in his return to lineup. Don’t be seduced by the name.
• Marcedes Lewis has some yardage potential, but I just don’t see many scoring chances for anyone other than MJD against the Falcons.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em Defenses

Start Em Defense: Chicago (v SEA)

They are playing with their backs against the wall, and pretty much have to hold their opponents scoreless. Fortunately for them, they are playing against Seattle. Look for the Bears to contain the Beast and dominate the Seahawks.

Also, whenever their backs are up against the wall, Devin Hester seems to do something crazy, which helps the Bears D/ST unit. 
Da Bears will play well this week.

Chicago Bears D/ST fantasy football Week 15 projection: 10 or fewer points, 2+ turnovers, 2+ sacks, 1 TD

Sit Em Defense: Denver (v NE)

I love Denver’s offense this week, in part because I think the New England offense will have their way with the Broncos.

You can’t stop Rob Gronkowski…even with OLBs as good as Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil.

I will be cheering for Denver to pull it off again this week, but once again it looks like Tim Tebow will have to carry the load.

Denver Broncos D/ST fantasy football Week 15 projection: 24 or more points, 1 turnover, 2 sacks

Jerod’s thoughts:

Okay, now I forgive you for not doing the “other” tight ends. You stepped up with some D/ST analysis! And I like both picks.

Also consider that Seattle gave up two return TDs to Ted Ginn back in Week 1. While their special teams may now be better, Hester is Hester. He offers lots of upside for Bears owners.

And as for the Broncos, you’re exactly right. Miller and Dumervil are rushing OLBs, not coverage guys. Gronk will dominate, and Welker should find plenty of success too.

Other D/STs to consider:

• Seattle’s D is criminally underrated. Facing Caleb Hanie, they too should be able to get the scoring to a minimum.
• Cincinnati playing at St. Louis is a no-brainer. So is Tennessee at Indy.

D/STs to stay away from:

• Baltimore is excellent, but they are facing a San Diego offense that is starting to click. If I had Seattle or Cincy, I’d play them over the Ravens, who face a desperate Chargers team that literally almost never loses in December.

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There you go. 2,500 words of fantasy analysis for Week 15, which should have you all ready to make every lineup decision facing you for Week 15.

Wait…what’s that? You still have questions? Well of course be our guest and pop on down to the comment section below. We’ll take good care of you, as well as be here on Sunday morning for our weekly live chat to make sure you are ready to win your playoff matchup.

Good luck in Week 15 everyone!

“I love the NFL, and I need my start/sit advice for Week 13, but I’m just SO pumped for the Big Ten Championship game this weekend that I can’t even think about it!”

You’re in luck!

Click here (or here for a work-friendly page) and comment, “I want tickets!!!!” in order to win FOUR free tickets to the Big game this weekend between Michigan St. and Wisconsin, courtesy of our friends at Verizon.

Seriously…that’s all you have to do.  What have you got to lose? We’re even going to save you time by helping you out with your start em, sit em questions in this post and in the comment section!

Now on to week 13.

A Quick Piece of Advice…One More Time

There is no room left for excuses.  At this point in the season, we have ALL dealt with injuries.  We have ALL battled through our bye weeks.  We have ALL left points on the table.

If I could give you one piece of advice before the stretch run, it would be something I have emphasized all year: listen to expert advice…but trust your gut first.

Again, none of us have the time to really study fantasy football full time.  It is impossible (well, for those of us who have real jobs) to completely keep track of every single player, every matchup, every injury, and every game.  If you don’t have a good read on a player or a matchup, you should definitely consult “the experts.”

However, so much of fantasy football comes back to gut feelings.

If you have a gut feeling that Ryan Grant is going to run all over the Giants this week, and that gut is based on some stats or game play that you have actually seen, go for it!  Even if the expert disagrees, I would rather go down on my own terms.  Believe me, you will hate yourself if Grant goes off and you started Chris Johnson just because that’s what the expert said.

If you are ambivalent and have no opinion, seek counsel…but don’t be afraid to trust your gut on the tough calls.

Last Week’s Picks: 17 for 25 (68 %)

• Hits: Matt Moore, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, Carson Palmer, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Jonathan Stewart, Roy Helu, Mike Tolbert, KC Running Backs, Percy Harvin, Laurent Robinson, Anquan Boldin, Devin Hester, Jermichael Finley
• Misses:  Josh Freeman, Tim Tebow, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brandon Jacobs, Pierre Garcon (picked the wrong Colt), Mario Manningham, Johnny Knox, Kellen Winslow

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 13: QB

Start Em QB: Tim Tebow

Fantastic matchup against a Minnesota team that has been reeling lately without Adrian Peterson.

Tebow and the Broncos will be playing in the dome up in Minnesota, which means both he AND Von Miller will play even faster.  I expect Tebow to run wild and for Miller and the incredibly fast Broncos’ defense to force several turnovers.

If Tebow gets a few shots with a short field, he should put up a lot of points this week.

Still not convinced?  He’s 21st in points this year…after starting only 6 games. He’s only 11 points behind Jay Cutler.  Tebow is a must-start right now as the fantasy playoffs approach…amazing.

Tim Tebow Fantasy Projections for Week 13: 200 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; 80 rushing yards, 1 TD.

Other start ‘em QBs for Week Twelve:

• Philly QB – Whether it’s Vick or Young, I think that the Eagles will explode in a game that doesn’t matter.
• Tony Romo – In Arizona, against their atrocious secondary.
• Alex Smith – Enticing matchup against St. Louis in a game that the 49ers want to win big in order to get their mojo back.

Sit Em QB: Matt Ryan

You might be tempted to start Matty Ice this week since Houston will be starting T.J. Yates with Jake Delhomme waiting in the wings.  While it’s true that Atlanta should get more chances than normal, Houston’s defense is one of the top five units in the league, and should make it incredibly tough sledding on Matt Ryan.

If Houston can control clock at all with their fantastic running game, Matt Ryan owners will be in for a long afternoon.

Matt Ryan Week 13 Fantasy Projection: 220 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Twelve:

• Andy Dalton – He’s really good…but so is Pittsburgh’s defense.
• QB’s in the KC/Chi game – LOL…don’t even look at this game.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I’ve been skeptical of Tebow from a fantasy standpoint ever since he took over the starting job, mostly because I worried about him getting pulled. But with a 5-1 record, the playoffs in reach, and Kyle Orton gone, Tebow is safe through the end of the year. And this is a great matchup, even though Minnesota’s strength is against the run. I’d play him.

I agree that Ryan’s potential is a bit muted this week. Loved him last week, lukewarm on him this week.

Tony Romo is a top 5 fantasy QB this week. Start him. With confidence. (Which means, since it’s Romo, that you should expect him to suck. Because wouldn’t that just be the Romo thing to do?)

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 13: RBs

Start Em RB: LeGarrette Blount

Blount is ranked 30th overall among fantasy running backs right now, so that makes him on the cusp of starting nearly every single week.  This week, he’s a must start against Carolina.

In fact, Blount may have the best fantasy week among ALL running backs in week 13.

Carolina’s run defense is so bad they made Donald Brown relevant last week.  Just imagine what someone with actual talent will do against them.

LeGarrette Blount’s Week 13 Projected Stats: 180 rushing yards, 2 TD; 55 receiving yards

Other start ‘em RBs for Week Twelve:

• LeSean McCoy – If he only gets ten rushes this week, we will all light ourselves on fire.
• Chris Johnson – He’s back, and facing the Buffalo defense.  Big week again for CJ2K.
• Denver Broncos….duh.

Sit Em RB: Shonn Greene

I admit that this is a complete hunch.  I try to base nearly all of my predictions on statistical evidence or game play that I have actually seen…but I feel compelled to put Shonn Greene on the bench this week.

First of all, Washington has a pretty decent defense, especially on the ground (13th in yards per attempt). Secondly, I really think that they will try to make Mark Sanchez win two consecutive games.  I really don’t think anyone will be fooled by his 4-TD performance last week.

Washington will force Sanchez to do it again in order for NY to win.  He might.  But Shonn Greene will have another lackluster effort.

Shonn Greene Week 13 Projection: 45 yards rushing

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week Thirteen:

• Rashard Mendenhall – Pitt will have to win this game through the air against the Bengals.
• Detroit Running Backs – On the road in New Orleans…if this game isn’t high scoring, that means that the Saints won big.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Wow, recommending Chris Johnson two straight weeks. I can’t believe it’s true, but it is. He seems safe. (Of course, what I really can’t believe is true is how quickly confidence has been lost in CJ. But such is the case when you have a season like he’s had.)

Be careful sitting Mendenhall. Certainly he hasn’t lived to the billing of a top 5 back (like some idiot analysts predicted before the season started…analysts who will remain nameless to protect our pride here at MSF) but he always has the potential for 80-90 yards and a score. That’s tough to find with a high degree of confidence this late in the season.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 13: WRs

Start Em WR: Antonio Brown

He has been a little hit or miss lately, but I think that he will have a great game against Cincinnati this week.

Brown is an absolute terror from the slot, and Cincinnati will definitely be trying to limit Mendenhall on the ground and Mike Wallace from any big plays.

Watch for Brown to play extremely well.

Antonio Brown fantasy football Week 13 projection: 9 receptions, 120 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Twelve:

• Laurent Robinson – It seems like Romo picks a new random dude every year to become his go-to guy halfway through the season. As long as Miles Austin is out, expect Robinson to put up some good numbers. (Yes, I copied this from the last two weeks…I still feel the same way, even though Miles Austin could play this week.)
• Eric Decker – If Tebow throws for more yards, and I think he will, Decker will definitely be the number one recipient.
• Vincent Jackson – This game might as well be meaningless for San Diego…so they should win by 60.

Sit Em WR: Dwyane Bowe

The Bears defense is good…and Tyler Palko is almost as good as me.

No…I’m not good at all.

Dwyane Bowe fantasy football Week 13 projection: 3 catches for 45 yards

Other Sit ‘em WRs for Week Thirteen:

• Julio Jones – Bad day for Matt Ryan AND him…Roddy White is the only ATL non-RB I like this week.
• Brandon Lloyd – I don’t know if you have heard, but San Francisco’s defense is really good.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I love Antonio Brown and am always willing to find an excuse to sit Dwayne Bowe, so I concur with those picks.

As for Lloyd, I love the 49ers defense, but I also love #1 WRs who have the trust of their QB. St. Louis will have to throw the ball, which means plenty of targets for Lloyd. Careful sitting him. He’s not a top 10 WR this week, but I think he’s still top 20.

Any #1 receiver against Minnesota is a good play, so Decker gets the nod this week.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 13: TEs

Start Em TE: Greg Olsen

The Tampa defense will do their best to limit Steve Smith this week, and Olsen will reap the benefits.

Greg Olsen fantasy football Week 13 projection: 7 receptions, 80 yards, 1 TD

Sit Em TE: Owen Daniels

A lot of times, young QB’s = good days for Tight Ends.  But boy, is TJ Yates low on the totem pole.  Sure, he may not be Jake Delhomme, but…oh wait.

That’s right.  Jake Delhomme.

I will stop talking right now.

Owen Daniels fantasy football Week 13 projection: 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD

Jerod’s Thoughts:

One could also make the case that the young QB (or the old one, if Delhomme sees any action) will rely on his tight end more. Still, I wouldn’t trust any Houston pass catchers this week, and that includes Andre Johnson.

I continue to like Vernon Davis down the stretch, so consider him a top-10 option. Brent Celek is also a guy who is playing well and warrants consideration.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 13: D/ST

Start Em D/ST: Denver Broncos

Who would have thought that by Week 13 Tim Tebow would be a must-start and the Broncos’ defense would also be a must-start? Well, it’s happened. And with Denver’s relentless pass rush and solid secondary facing rookie Christian Ponder with perhaps no Adrian Peterson, the Broncos are a good choice yet again.

Denver Broncos fantasy football Week 13 projection: 14 or fewer points, 4 sacks, 2 turnovers

Other start ‘em D/ST units:

• The Patriots’ D is facing Indy. Start ‘em!
• Atlanta’s defense is a sneaky start this week. Their strength is stopping the run, which is what Houston does well. Surely they’ll be able to contain T.J. Yates. If you think Atlanta can hold Foster and Tate down, they’re worthy of starting.

Sit Em S/ST: Green Bay Packers and New York Giants

The Packers’ D isn’t a terrible option because they do force turnovers, but I expect this game to be high scoring with both quarterbacks putting up very good numbers. There just isn’t a lot of upside here on either side.

Packers and Giants fantasy football Week 13 projection: Lots of points, lots of yards, a few turnovers for the Packers

Other sit ‘em D/ST units:

• Jacksonville’s season is over, their coach just got fired, and the Chargers come in trying to salvage some pride. I think they do, and put up a lot of primetime points on the Jags in the process.
• I was high on Seattle’s defense last week, then they gave up 20+ points at home to Washington. Philly and all of its weapons comes a calling this week. No thanks.

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Good luck in Week 13 everybody! We’ll see you in the comments.

And remember: Go here and leave a comment! By doing so, you’ll be entered to win tickets to the Big Ten Championship game! (And enter quickly. We have to choose a winner tomorrow early afternoon.)

The first portion begins with the 10-0 Green Bay Packers against the Detroit Lions (AMANDA’S PREVIEW). Dessert is the 9-1 San Francisco 49ers visiting the Baltimore Ravens. (Throw in a certain Indiana Hoosiers hoops coach and the Harbaugh clan is fast becoming the most annoying coaching dynasty in the history of Western Civilization.)

Just don’t forget the main course in the middle; because as any true elitist knows, it is just not quite Thanksgiving without the Dallas Cowboys.

Thanksgiving Football in Big D

Sure, the Packers, Bears, and Lions have their own little thing going far away from America’s vapid coasts (and some people actually notice) – but the Cowboys are still America’s team, confirmed in 1970 when the NFL wisely placed the franchise in the NFC East, instantly creating legendary rivalries with the New York Football Giants, Washington Redskins, and Philadelphia Eagles.

The NFL was also wise in the late 1960′s to make Thanksgiving football an annual event in the Metroplex, and Turkey Day has provided some of the franchise’s greatest memories.

What about Clint Longley coming off the bench replacing a concussed Roger Staubach and heaving a last-minute bomb against the Skins in 1974?

Or an even more unlikely hero when now-coach Jason Garrett got the start in 1994 victory over the Packers, who even at the apex of the Reggie White/Brett Favre/Mike Holmgren era could not buy a win in Texas Stadium.

Then there is the most surreal Thanksgiving memory of all:

Leon Lett and The Most Infamous Play in Thanksgiving Football History

1993, Cowboys, Dolphins, two sun-belt teams, playing on an ice-covered Texas Stadium turf. (TRIVIA – WHO WAS THE DOLPHINS’ QB THAT DAY?? Answer at end of post.) Hoosier alum Pete Stoyanovich attempts a 40-yard field goal. Kick is blocked, and NBC immediately cuts to a celebrating Jerry Jones on the sidelines and Troy Aikman/Michael Irvin hugging each other.

Only one problem: Stoyo was going to get another shot from point blank range.

The commentary from Bob Trumpy said it all, ‘NOT LEON LETT!!!!!’, followed by Dick Enberg exclaiming ‘OH, OH, OH, MY!!!’, and a young Ed Hochuli front and center.

Yup, getting the ball knocked from your hands in the waning minutes of a Super Bowl that kept a 52-17 win from being 59-17 was one thing; but insanely trying to recover a ball on a skating rink when the game was essentially over was quite another.

In a scene resembling something straight out of curling, Miami players spent the next several minutes clearing Stoyanovich’s eventual kicking spot while at least one Cowboys player attempted to kick snow back on the area while the officiating crew attempted to sort out the mess.

Stoyanovich would make good on his second chance and the Dolphins won. That would be Dallas’ last hiccup of the season as Troy/Emmitt/Irvin, and Jimmy Johnson would recover to win a second consecutive Super Bowl. On the other side, this would be the final Dolphins win of the year, they would lose their final five games to miss the playoffs.

Well, the lid on the new Cowboys Stadium eliminates any chance of weather being a factor this time around, but still there are plenty of storylines leading in. Can the current Tony Romo-led team win the NFC East and make the playoffs? And even more importantly, can the Cowboys of this era ever approach the level of their 1990′s predecessors?

And what is there to make of the Dolphins? Four weeks ago the team looked destined to make another run at 0-16 and coach Tony Sparano even mentioned his impending termination to a game official. Now just three weeks after being Tebowed (kind of like being Jimmered), Sparano may still be a dead coach walking, but the Dolphins have since won three straight and at least Tony and Rex Ryan can spend their coaching after-lives wondering how their defenses could let Touchdown Jesus off the hook.

Now for the analysis…

MATT MOORE DOMINATES

Who needed the Chad Henne anointing oil anyway?

And who needs to tank games in order to be able to draft Andrew Luck or Matt Barkley when a team can just simply pick up the undrafted Matt Moore of the scrapheap?

Moore has completed 63.6% of his passes and has had QB ratings of 147.5 and 133.3 in two of the past three weeks. Moore has also completed over 70% of his passes over those three games, only being picked off once in that span.

And then there is another player who got slightly more hype than Matt Moore coming out of the Pac-10. In recent weeks Reggie Bush is finally resembling the talent that was picked #2 overall in the draft in 2006. In the past four games Reggie has accounted for 379 combined yards, 274 of those on the ground. If Bush rushes for a mere 76 yards on Thursday, he will eclipse his previous season-rushing high of 581 yards.

Although Reggie seems to have been around forever (and probably has considering his USC days) it should be noted he is still only age 26. The Dolphins still have a few years of tread left on those tires.

ROMO IS BURNING

Earlier in the season, the criticism reached an all-time high with critics (me included) labeling Tony Romo as the latest incarnation of Brett Favre with his erratic play and penchant of falling short in the clutch. Well, in the past three weeks Romo has thrown eight TD passes v. zero picks, with QB ratings of 112.2, 148.4, and 113.8 in those games. Granted the opposition was not the greatest (Bills, Seahawks, Skins), but he did lead his team to a winning drive in OT Sunday in Washington.

Regardless of what happens v. the Phins, the real kool-aid battery acid test will come in Dallas’ two upcoming games v. the Giants, and ultimately the playoffs. But I don’t think replacing Romo as QB is a necessity at this point.

Others have helped lighten that load, including rookie DeMarco Murray (on track to be a top-ten overall fantasy pick in 2012) who has emerged as a potential franchise back; and Felix Jones is rounding back into form after his annual injury bug and can now resume the role he is more accustomed to as a change-of-pace option.

Then there is much-maligned diva/wide receiver Dez Bryant. He is not THE man, as the Cowboys offensive scheme spreads itself around, but Dez came up with two big plays in Washington, including a 26-yard reception in overtime, that led to the winning score.

THE DEFENSES

Six field goals. That is all that the Dolphins defense has conceded over the past three weeks, and they kept league leading rusher Fred Jackson in check (before he got hurt) this past Sunday.

And Jason Taylor? He’s still in the league!

But the Phins impressive run has been against the likes of the downward-spiraling Bills and Chiefs, Dallas will provide a much stiffer test.

And for the Cowboys, it’s all about Demarcus Ware, approaching perhaps his best season yet with 14 sacks in ten games, which puts him on pace to best his career-high 20 sack season in 2008. He is simply the best pass-rusher in the game right now (with all apologies to Jared Allen groupies). Ex-Cowboy reject Marc Columbo has the difficult task of trying to hold Ware in check Thursday. Look for the Phins to utilize a blocking tight end in an effort to max-protect.

DOLPHINS-COWBOYS PREDICTION

Both teams have two common opponents over the past two weeks. The Redskins lost in Miami 20-9 before losing to the Cowboys in OT. Meanwhile Dallas routed the Bills 44-7 while the Dolphins beat them 20-8 a week later.

Both teams have a three-game winning streak, one will make it four…

Cowboys 27 | Dolphins 16

What do you think?

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TRIVIA ANSWER: STEVE DEBERG (39 AT THE TIME)

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys Game Info

• Dolphins-Cowboys Date: Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, November 24th
• Dolphins-Cowboys Kickoff Time: 4:15 PM EST
• Dolphins-Cowboys TV Network: CBS
• Dolphins-Cowboys Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms
• Dolphins-Cowboys Point Spread: Cowboys -6.5
• Dolphins-Cowboys Over/Under: 44

So in this post I’ll do just that, providing analysis and recommendations for the key players you need to decide on before Turkey Day.

Quickly, before I get to the start/sit analysis for the Thanksgiving Day games, I want to tell you about a fun fantasy contest from our friends at Daily Joust. They are hosting a Thanksgiving Day Turkey Shootout that uses only players playing on Thanksgiving Day in the player pool, has a $5 entry free, and $300 guaranteed prize pool. Plus, not only is it a Super Joust Qualifier, but you can submit multiple entries.

I plan on joining. I’ll post my team later in the week. Are you up to the challenge? Click here. (And yes, if you sign up, it helps us out. But we wouldn’t promote it if we didn’t play ourselves.)

Now onto the start/sit picks.

Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Day Start/Sit Quarterbacks

Start em QB: Matt Moore, Miami (at Dallas)

Over the last three weeks, few quarterbacks not named Rodgers have been as consistently good in both real life and fantasy football as Matt Moore. He has six touchdown passes and has been intercepted just once. That’s solid, consistent production that we can somewhat count on.

Granted, he did all of this against Kansas City, Washington, and Buffalo, so this matchup against Dallas will be the best defense Moore has faced in a month. But the Cowboys are better against the run than they are the pass, and Rex Grossman threw for 250+ yards and two TDs on them last week.

Moore isn’t an automatic start like the three QBs mentioned below are, but he is a solid play with upside in two-QB leagues or for anyone stuck with Joe Flacco.

Matt Moore fantasy football Thanksgiving Day projection: 225 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 INT

Other start em QBs:

• Hopefully I don’t need to tell you to start Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. I haven’t looked at the other matchups, but those two guys may be the #1 and #2 QBs this week.
• It’s still November, which means that Mr. November Tony Romo is still a very good start. He’s hot, and while the Dolphins are playing well they haven’t faced a QB of Romo’s caliber during their win streak.

Sit em QB: Alex Smith, San Francisco (at Baltimore)

Alex Smith has been playing the best football of his career this year; and while I know the Ravens gave up a lot of passing yardage to Andy Dalton and the Bengals last week, they also picked Dalton off three times. I expect the Harbaugh Bowl to be a low scoring, physical affair; and I want no part of Alex Smith against a motivated Ravens defense playing at home in primetime against a team you know they won’t take lightly.

So even though Andy Bottoms likes Smith long-term in his Week 12 waiver wire pickups column, wait a week before deploying him in your lineup.

Alex Smith fantasy football Thanksgiving Day projection: 200 yards passing, 0 TD, 0 INT

Other sit em QBs:

• I don’t like Joe Flacco against the stout 49ers’ defense. I’d play him before I’d play Smith, but I’d hope to need neither.

Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Day Start/Sit Running Backs

Start em RB: Kevin Smith, Detroit (v Green Bay)

Well…that came out of nowhere.

Last Sunday during the live chat, I was telling everyone who would listen that I thought a Detroit running back was a good play because of the matchup against Carolina. Turns out I was right, but it also turns out I had the wrong Detroit running back. Rather than Maurice Morris, it was Kevin Smith who made his triumphant return to the Motor City and amassed 200+ total yards and three TDs.

Is Smith for real? I don’t know. Carolina is one of the most generous defenses to opposing running backs. That said, Smith is the guy now in Detroit, certainly until Jahvid Best gets back. Additionally, of all the defenses playing on Thanksgiving Green Bay’s actually gives up the most points to opposing RBs. Just ask LeGarrette Blount.

I wouldn’t get too excited about Smith…yet…but if you win him in this week’s most hotly contested waiver wire battle, feel good about deploying him on Thanksgiving.

Kevin Smith fantasy football Thanksgiving Day projection: 80 yards rushing, 3 receptions, 40 yards, 1 TD

Other start em RBs:

• Frank Gore looked healthy and spry last week, and he faces a Baltimore defense that gave up two scores to Cedric Benson. If Gore plays, you start him. It’s that simple.
• Do you know the Dolphins are the second stingiest defense in terms of fantasy points scored by opposing running backs? It’s true. Still, I’d start DeMarco Murray. He is the focal point of the Cowboys’ offense now, and I think they’ll put up numbers against Miami.
• I thought about making Ray Rice the sit ‘em RB, but I just can’t. Even though San Francisco has given up a whopping total of zero rushing touchdowns this year, they have had a game in which they allowed 14 receptions by Roy Helu. Baltimore has to get their best player involved on offense, and while I expect Rice’s numbers to depressed by the 49ers’ suffocating do, I do think Rice can have enough impact yardage-wise and catching passes to be at least a strong flex play.
• Reggie Bush has scored a touchdown in three straight games, and in the fourth game he had over 100 yards rushing. So he’s been productive, even though his yard per touch rate has decreased the last two weeks. While Dallas is very good at stopping opposing running backs, Bush remains a solid flex play because Miami is finding creative ways to use him around the goalline.

Sit em RB: James Starks, Ryan Grant, et al, Green Bay (at Detroit)

The two-headed running back monster of James Starks and Ryan Grant simply isn’t much of a monster at all. They rarely, if ever, score touchdowns. They don’t rack up great yardage totals to offset the dearth of TD production. And John Kuhn and BJ Raji vulture all the goalline carries.

Plus, Starks is dinged up, and the Detroit defense has been improving some when it comes to holding down opposing running backs. They are in the top half in terms of points allowed. I’d look elsewhere, even if Grant gets the starting job all to himself with Starks out.

James Starks/Ryan Grant fantasy football Thanksgiving Day projection: 75 total yards, 5 receptions, 30 yards

Other sit em RBs:

• Kendall Hunter still has value long-term, especially as a handcuff for Frank Gore owners, but he doesn’t get enough carries as Gore’s backup to warrant starting.
• Maurice Morris…great last name buddy, but enjoy your parting gifts.
• Daniel Thomas is still the running back of the future for Miami, but Reggie Bush is the one scoring touchdowns. Against a stingy Dallas defense, Thomas is probably not worth playing.
• Felix Jones is back. *crickets* On six touches last week he delivered an “explosive” 22 yards. Keep him on your bench. DeMarco Murray is the guy in Dallas now.

Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Day Start/Sit Wide Receivers

Start em WR: Torrey Smith, Baltimore (v San Francisco)

You know I’m not big on rookie wide receivers, but I do warm to them later in the season when they prove they can be trusted. Torrey Smith is earning that trust.

Smith had a huge clutch TD against Pittsburgh that built his QB’s faith in him, and then popped for 6 catches, 165 yards, and a TD in a key divisional battle last week. I know that a 3-catch, 28-yard dud against Seattle is sandwiched in there, but Smith is getting the targets and hasn’t caught fewer than three balls since Week 6. There is some risk/reward with him as a deep threat, but the reward is worth it.

And don’t get too scared off by the San Fran defense when it comes to Smith and his buddy Anquan Boldin. Because the 49ers are so stout against the run, teams often take to throwing on them. The 49ers are actually in the bottom half of the league in terms of points allowed to opposing WRs.

Torrey Smith fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 4 receptions, 85 yards, 1 TD

Other start em WRs:

• Michael Crabtree and Alex Smith are developing a nice rapport. He may not get into the end zone, but he’ll rack up at least 5-6 catches and 60-70 yards, with upside for more.
• With Miles Austin likely out again, both Dez Bryant and Laurent Robinson are top-25 wide receivers.
• Jordy Nelson, even though it goes without saying at this point. Also, keep playing Greg Jennings. I know his last few games have been less than what we expect, but do you really want your Thanksgiving to be ruined because he popped for 100 yards and a TD? No, you don’t.
• I’m not quite sure where that 1-catch dud in Week 11 by Brandon Marshall came from, but it’s the only game this year he’s had fewer than four catches. He stays in your lineup.
• ‘Tron. Also Nate Burleson, who has two straight excellent games and faces the inviting Packers’ defense this week.

Sit em WR: James Jones, Green Bay (at Detroit)

Jones flashed his potential in weeks 3-7 when he averaged 3+ catches and 62 yards per game to go along with three touchdowns. However, in the three games since then Jones has caught just two total passes. This has coincided with Jordy Nelson becoming the most explosive receiver in the NFL, and though I don’t watch Green Bay games I have to think there is some level of causation to that correlation.

I know you’ll be tempted to play Jones because it’s Thanksgiving – and he certainly has TD potential any week, any play – but the targets just aren’t there to justify it right now; plus, Detroit is actually the second-stingiest defense for opposing wide receivers playing on Thanksgiving (after Dallas).

James Jones fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 2 receptions, 35 yards, 0 TD

Other sit em WRs:

• I don’t like any Dolphins receiver not named Brandon Marshall.
• Lee Evans is supposedly back for Baltimore. Whoop-de-doo. Torrey Smith stole his role as deep threat.
• Braylon Edwards let a touchdown slip right through his fingers last week. You can’t start him until he proves he can make an impact.

Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Day Start/Sit Tight Ends

Start em TE: Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit (v Green Bay)

The Chicago Bears give up the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Do you know who is second? The Green Bay Packers. This makes Pettigrew an automatic start this week, as does his consistency.

No, Pettigrew has not been as explosive lately as he was earlier in the season, but he’s caught at least three balls in every game but one this year, and he remains a redzone target as he scored a TD last week.

Brandon Pettigrew fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 5 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD

Other start em TEs:

• The Ravens are actually the stingiest defense against opposing tight ends, so you’re forewarned; still, I’d start Vernon Davis. He’s becoming more and more involved in the passing game, and he has scored in two straight weeks. He’s not an automatic start, but unless you have a top-10 alternative I’d keep him in there.
• Jason Witten. ‘Nuff said.

Sit em TE: Jermichael Finley, Green Bay (at Detroit)

Remember when Jermichael Finley was supposed to be the next Antonio Gates? Since that time, Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski have clearly passed him, along with Aaron Hernandez and even the likes of Jermaine Gresham. Finley has talent, but the targets and touchdowns just aren’t there. Plus, Detroit is pretty stingy to opposing tight ends.

Finley has immense potential every week, but it’s crunch time. You need guaranteed production from the tight end spot. I’d look elsewhere but hang onto Finley for depth.

Jermichael Finley fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 2 receptions, 30 yards, 0 TD

Other sit em TEs:

• Ed Dickson came out of nowhere to score two TDs two weeks ago against Seattle. That game is sandwiched between games in which Dickson averaged two catches and 15 yards. San Fran is solid against tight ends thanks to the marvelous Patrick Willis. You can do better.
• Anthony Fasano has scored four touchdowns over his last four games, but in three of those games he had only two receptions. Dallas is pretty stingy to opposing TEs. Again, you can do better.

Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Day Start/Sit D/STs

Start em D/ST: San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens

I like both defenses in this game. San Fran is #1 in the league in points allowed (14.5 per game) and Baltimore is #3 (17.6). Plus, neither team’s QB exactly inspires confidence. So expect a physical, low-scoring game, with both defenses looking to make the play that turns the tide and wins it.

If you happen to have both defenses, the edge goes to San Francisco because of the added dimension and potential Ted Ginn brings in the return game.

San Francisco 49ers fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 14 or fewer points, 3+ sacks, 2 turnovers

Baltimore Ravens fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 14 or fewer points, 2+ sacks, 1 turnover

Other start em D/STs:

• The Dallas defense isn’t an automatic start, not after giving up 24 points to Sexy Rexy and the Rexskins, but they are a decent play against Miami.

Sit em D/ST: Miami Dolphins (at Dallas)

I know that the Miami defense has been very good lately, especially last week against Buffalo, but this Dallas offense is light years better than Buffalo’s. Miami has faced Matt Cassel, John Beck, and Ryan Fitzpatrick during their three-game winning streak. This week they face at hot Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Laurent Robinson in Cowboys Stadium. That’s not favorable.

Miami Dolphins fantasy football Thanksgiving Day projection: 24 or more points, 1 sack, 1 turnover

Other sit em D/STs:

• Is there anyone who doesn’t expect a shootout in Detroit? Though both defenses have weekly sack and TD potential, it’s a safe bet to expect 60+ points in this game. I wouldn’t want either D playing for me (but Green Bay would be the choice if I had to play one.)

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I’m looking back on my selections, and I just realized I told you to sit a wide receiver and a tight end in what could be the highest-scoring Thanksgiving Day game ever. I’m not re-thinking either suggestion though. The potential is there, but the production just hasn’t been evident on the field to make me trust either Jones or Finley. We’ll see how those picks work out.

And don’t forget about the Thanksgiving Day Turkey Shootout. Click here to enter and make your Thanksgiving Day of football even more exciting.

Jon will be here tomorrow with start/sit advice on the rest of the Week 12 action. The comment section is open for your questions. Try to keep this thread Thanksgiving-specific if you can…although I guess it doesn’t really matter.

Good luck and happy Thanksgiving to all!

The Cowboys final opponents are Miami, Arizona, New York, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia and New York again.

Image source: NFLTouchdown.com

Let’s get one thing straight. I am not a disciple of Tony Romo. I think he is a great quarterback, but not an elite quarterback. His numbers tell you he is, but he seems to crumble under pressure. I will go with the Cowboys because I looked at the Giants and Eagles schedules. Wow.

The Giants schedule goes like this: New Orleans, Green Bay, Dallas, Washington, New York Jets and Dallas. That is absolutely brutal. Maybe they win three of those, and that is optimistic.

The Eagles schedule goes like this: New England, Seattle, Miami, New York Jets, Dallas and Washington. They could win three of those games, but don’t overlook the Redskins, who always rise up to play well against divisional rivals and the Seahawks, who are pesky and have already beaten the Giants and Ravens.

The Redskins schedule…doesn’t matter. They have Rex Grossman as their quarterback (and this guy gesturing…signals?). They will not win the division.

The Cowboys have found an established running game with DeMarco Murray, who looks like he gets shot out of a cannon at times, and Miles Austin will return. Until then, Laurent Robinson has filled in nicely. Don’t forget you still have Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, along with a Rob Ryan defense.

I feel confident the Cowboys will represent the NFC East in the postseason and proceed to be promptly eliminated in the first round.

As I stop with the filibuster lines, let’s discuss the injuries that have begun to rear their many ugly heads.  And I’m not just talking about injuries to players on your roster. Something else to pay attention to is injuries to your players’ opponents. These can sometimes affect your guys greatly. For example, Johnathan Joseph will play this week against Tampa Bay, but his hamstring isn’t 100%.

As a matter of fact, in the NFL, after week 1 nobody is 100% anymore. This is a tough game we play we with tough decisions, and we highlight who is healthy enough and good enough to play in this week’s stock report.

Fantasy Football Week 10: Stocks Up

Mark Sanchez

Don’t look now but Mark Sanchez is having a pretty good year. Aside from that horrible game against the Ravens, his play since then, especially against the Patriots, has been fairly encouraging.

Maybe playing under the radar is what suits him best; and between the Pats and Jets, New York is the team that is playing like they want to win the division right now. Tune in Sunday at 8:20 to find out.

Reggie Bush

Fantasy points or Kim Kardashian? This is quite the perplexing question, but it goes directly to Reggie since we all know she is back on the market, so he has some decisions to make.

While he may want to have his cake and eat it too, fantasy owners have to be excited about his 6.9 ypc average over the last two weeks against some formidable defenses. He is running better every week, and when you add his catching into the equation a pleasant surprise should come from this.

Ben Tate

Don’t be afraid to play Ben Tate just because he sits behind one of fantasy’s best running backs. With Andre Johnson continuing to have issues with his hamstring, the Texans are going to do what they do best and that is run the football up and down the field.

Jerome Simpson

After seeing the early season success of the Dalton to Green connection, the truth will show whether this Bengals offense can keep them relevant in the AFC North. Four straight games against divisional opponents will pose a challenge, so if anyone needs to step up more for this team it is Simpson. The stats don’t lie, his 15.8 yard average is best on the team.

Sidney Rice

To win against the Ravens, Seattle simply won’t be able to run the ball, sorry Mr. Lynch.  If they really want to win, trying to expose the sometimes vulnerable Baltimore secondary is the way to go about it. This all hinges on the ability for the offensive line to block long enough for Tavaris Jackson to throw the ball downfield. This is truly wishful, but not absurd, thinking.

Brent Celek

14 catches over the last two weeks is good for anybody…but a tight end?  Pure excellence.

Jake Ballard

Eli Manning is a very good quarterback and he loves his tight ends. Jake Ballard is going to get a lot of looks in the red zone and for some reason teams haven’t caught on. Ride this one for as long as you want.

Fantasy Football Week 10: Stocks Down

Tony Romo

That Buffalo defensive secondary doesn’t play around when it comes to causing turnovers.  Given Romo’s history in games that are important, there isn’t a lot to be happy about when the Cowboys and Bills face off to see who is going to stay afloat in their respective divisions.

Matthew Stafford

The Bears gave Stafford his 2^nd lowest fantasy game back in week 5, but the tide could and most likely will change this week.  Chicago plays better at home, and they are tired of hearing how good the Lions are and need to keep up in the tight wild card race, so expect a tough game that is going to be rough on the offensive statistics.

Ray Rice

Are the Ravens for real?  Probably, but this week could see Joe Flacco developing some rapport with his young receivers in a game that the Ravens should win pretty easily. Rice may see some action in the passing game but as far as running the ball, the matchup isn’t good.

Rashard Mendenhall

Big Ben is arguably the most important player to the Pittsburgh Steelers, which creates a passing environment causing Mendenhall to take a back seat. In the grand scheme of things, this works out well for him as he doesn’t have to take a beating every game, but this is fantasy and that is no good for us.

Julio Jones

Atlanta knows that if they want to beat the Saints, running the football up and down the field is really the only option. Besides, New Orleans is so well coached that letting an upstart like Jones go off again for a 100+ yard game with a couple scores is out of the question.

Brandon Lloyd

Aside from a mental lapse by the whole defense in week one, nobody, and I mean nobody can say they have given Joe Haden problems this year. Plug in the fact that Lloyd and Bradford are still extremely new to each other, it is going to be some time before the gaudy fantasy numbers that owners are hoping for will surface.

New England TE’s

Who do you feel is the best team in the AFC East right now?  The Jets are playing like it right now, and they have a big home game against the Pats on Sunday. During the meeting in week 5, Gronkowski and Hernandez went on to score a combined 8 points. For all the doubters out there downing the Jets defense, know that it is still elite and will cause some problems for these guys.

Falcons D/ST

A “recurring theme” is the term that best explains what happens to defenses that go up against Drew Brees, and that theme is points given up. We used to be able to say that about Phillip Rivers, but I’ll put the salt down for now. As for the Falcons, this season has been somewhat of a disappointment, and when teams are down, the Saints go for the jugular. If the offense can stay on the field long enough, then things should be ok for this defense…but it doesn’t look that way with Brees and Co in town.

In my opinion though, the hardest thing is staying in the present.

What do I mean?

Well, not only do you have to keep track of all of your players -  every rookie, waiver wire guy, and breakout performer on both your regular teams and weekly fantasy football teams – but you also have to be able to forget about the past and the future.

Who cares if Fred Jackson was bad last week…how will he do THIS week?

I know LeGarrette Blount’s prognosis for the rest of the year looks bleak…but can he give me one more week of solid production?

Most importantly, you have to remember that nobody can be perfect; and no matter how much you know, sometimes the athletes just have bad days.  (Yes, Jerod…I’m talking to you.  I will take my Tim Tebow, Fred Jackson, and Julio Jones predictions with me on my way to a big time network.)

[Editor's note: FINE! GO! I presciently told some people to sit Vincent Jackson and DeMarco Murray with very solid reasoning last week...you think I'm worried about losing YOU and your successful picks? HA!]

In all seriousness though, making predictions is quite hard…especially when you know it’s impossible to hit every pick out of the park.  Fortunately, I was on the money last week, nailing almost 75% of my picks.

Once again, I have to thank Verizon for helping me get there.

As you know, Verizon has hooked me up with a pretty sweet deal.  As part of our agreement, they have given me a Droid Bionic, equipped with NFL Mobile.  No matter where I am, I have instant access (on unbelievable 4G LTE speeds) to every fantasy player on my team.

Once again, I can’t talk about this enough.  Every time a new piece of technology comes out, we all ask ourselves the same question: “Is this REALLY going to be worth it?”  Sometimes, the new creation is called the iPad…and it revolutionizes everything.  Other times, it’s the iPad 2…where a company basically changed a device’s color, put a sticker, and made you waste $600.  When I heard about 4G speeds, I didn’t think twice about it.  I figured it was all a scam, and a waste of money.  Boy was I wrong.  Every time I watch my wife pull out her old-school Blackberry, and simply try to pull up google, I laugh at her.  Then, I get annoyed.  In a world full of impatient people, 4G speeds have made me a happier person.

Anyways, Verizon has helped me to stay current, and even better they have offered the MSF readers something spectacular:

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As always, we begin this week’s post with a quick recap of last week’s picks.  (And also, don’t forget: the Raiders and Chargers play this Thursday Night, so make sure you set your rosters now!)

Last Week’s Picks: 16 for 22 (73 %)

• Hits: Matt Ryan, Tim Tebow, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ben Roethlisberger, Michael Turner, Fred Jackson, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Steve Johnson, Nate Washington, NE Wide Receivers, Jake Ballard, and Scott Chandler
• Misses: LeGarrette Blount, Beanie Wells, Roy Helu, Plaxico Burress (by a half-yard), Dustin Keller, and Vernon Davis.

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 10: Quarterback

Start Em QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick (@ Dallas)

Is Dallas’ defense better this year?  Yes.

Has it regressed in recent weeks?  Yes.

Is their passing defense still below average?  Yes.

Is Fitzpatrick coming off of a rough week and ready to showcase his Harvard pedigree?  Who knows.  I think he is.  And I think that he’s a must-start this week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick fantasy football Week 10 projection: 290 yards, 3 TDs.

Other start ‘em QBs for Week Ten:

• Mark Sanchez – Not that he’s good…but New England’s pass defense is BAD.
• Philip Rivers – Very favorable matchup against a reeling Oakland defense.  Hey, you would be reeling too if your coach just traded TWO #1 draft picks for Carson Palmer.
• Tony Romo – He’s been pretty good at home this year, and Buffalo’s pass defense is atrocious.

Sit Em QB: Jay Cutler (v Detroit)

I actually REALLY like Jay Cutler.

I think he’s a really good quarterback, and he’s incredibly underrated for reasons that are completely unrelated to his actual play on the field.  Unfortunately for him, his offensive line has been, let’s just say…below average this year.  And in Week Ten, he will be matched up against the Detroit defensive line that is coming off a bye.

Yikes.

Jay Cutler fantasy football Week 10 projection: 240 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs.  8 sacks.

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Ten:

• Andy Dalton – He’s good…but Pittsburgh’s pass defense is better.
• Eli Manning – As I’m sure Jerod will note, San Francisco MIGHT have the best defense in the league…Eli might not be ELI-TE this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I like Ryan Fitzpatrick this week, but I don’t want to take him out for Valentine’s Day dinner, get down on one knee, and give him a ring…as you seem to want to do. Fitzpatrick has actually thrown 3 TD passes in a game twice this year, but both came in the first two weeks of the season. The league has caught up to Buffalo since them. Fitzpatrick is a solid start at QB, but hold off the Washburnian marriage proposals.

I’m fine with sitting Cutler against Detroit. The Lions’ D-Line is at least 5X better and tougher than the Eagles’, so I can see this game going much, much differently.

As for Eli struggling against the 49ers, yes I think it will be tough for him. Still, I think Eli is a borderline top-10 QB this week because the way to beat San Fran is through the air – you do not run on them – and frankly, Eli deserves as much respect as any non-Aaron Rodgers QB in the league this year. So sit him at your peril.

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 10: Running Back

Start Em RB: DeAngelo Williams (v Tennessee)

Coming off a bye, Williams will be fresher than he’s been all year.  He’s also playing a Tennessee defense that is ranked 23rd in the league against the run.  With an increased emphasis on stopping Cam Newton, I expect the Panthers to respond by pounding it out on the ground just like old times.

I actually like Jonathan Stewart this week as well, but I expect DeAngelo Williams to have a big game.

DeAngelo Williams fantasy football Week 10 projection: 140 total yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week Ten:

• All starters in the Kansas City/Denver game
• Michael Turner – Atlanta really likes to pound the ball on the ground against the Saints in order to try and control the clock.  Expect Turner to have a great game.

Sit Em RB: Jahvid Best (at Chicago)

He’s a little banged up, and he’s been slipping a lot lately.  The fact is, if not for a few lucky home run plays the last few games he played, Best has been a huge disappointment.  Plus, he only has 3 TOTAL TDs this season – even with Megatron’s unbelievable dominance and all.

I don’t trust Best against Chicago this week at all, even if he somehow plays.  Expect the Lions to throw it…a lot…and be successful.

Jahvid Best fantasy football Week 10 projection: 45 total yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week Ten:

• Knowshon Moreno – HE’S NOT GOOD!!!
• Patriots’ RBs – The Jets will make NE completely one-dimensional this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Loyal MSF fantasy readers, I cannot in good faith endorse DeAngelo Williams as a start in all but the most desperate of circumstances. Just know if you start him that DAW has had one – one – useful fantasy week all season (Week 5 v New Orleans…thanks to one big run). So trust Washburn at your own peril on this one.

As for Jahvid Best, well I can’t let this go without some lampooning, now can I? Jon, you realize you’re telling us all to sit a guy that is widely expected not to start anyway, right?

Best is dealing with yet another concussion, a problem he’s had since college. It’s sad, because he’s a talented player, but I don’t think he’ll ever be able to reach his potential because of injury.

Regardless, Best is a guy to consider dropping, not just sitting, so don’t give Washburn any bonus points next week if he correctly predicted a fantasy football invalid to be worthless.

And finally…sit Knowshon Moreno??? Really? Was that before or after Willis McGahee almost single-handedly spurred the Broncos to victory last week while Moreno had 8 total yards?

Come on Jon. You’re better than these picks; and I only feel comfortable honestly calling you out because I know our readers like you and respect you and will demand more from you.

Besides, honesty and candidness is the MSF way.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 10: Wide Receiver

Start Em WR: Steve Breaston (Denver)

He’s quietly having a solid season, and Denver’s pass defense is very mediocre.

Look for Champ Bailey to cover Dwayne Bowe all day, and look for Breaston to run wild in the process.  This isn’t to say that Bailey will shut down Bowe; actually, I’m trying to point out that a mildly washed up Champ Bailey is Denver’s BEST defensive back, which is good news for KC WRs.

Steve Breaston fantasy football Week 10 projection: 5 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Ten:

• Josh Cribbs – He is having a randomly solid season as well…and he should put up some nice numbers against St. Louis.
• Pierre Garcon – This week might be Indy’s best chance for a W all season.  Look for “the waiter” to have a solid day against Jacksonville.

Sit Em WR: Deion Branch (@ NY Jets)

At this point, if you are still starting New England wide eeceivers not named Wes Welker, you are DEFINITELY not staying current.  However, just in case, don’t start Deion Branch.

Darrelle Revis does NOT do a great job of defending the slot, so he will probably be matched up with Branch all day.  I shouldn’t have to say anything else.

Deion Branch fantasy football Week 10 projection: No catches

Jerod’s thoughts:

I guess we don’t get any other potential sit ‘em WRs this week? Geez Jon; I know you’re distraught about the NBA lockout, but there is no reason to take it out on our loyal fantasy football readers.

Here you go folks…here are a few normally startable WRs that you may want to think twice about:

• AJ Green and the Bengals finally face a good defense, the Steelers. Be wary. The last elite defense Cincy faced was when San Fran shut Green down to the tune of 4 catches for 29 yards.
• You know I like Brandon Lloyd for the balance of the season, but I could see him struggling a bit this week in a low-scoring affair against Cleveland in which Joe Haden will surely be draped all over him.
• Mike Williams has six catches in each of his last three games for Tampa Bay, but he’s averaging less than 10 yards per catch over his last four. Last year’s TD machine isn’t producing TDs, and while I continue to profess patience with him, I’d be okay with you placing the burden of proof on him.

As for Jon’s picks, I think Breaston is a solid option at WR this week, and Deion Branch is a weekly wild card; but with Tom Brady and New England’s offense struggling, I too would sit Branch against the Jets and Revis.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 10: Tight Ends

Start Em TE: Jake Ballard, New York Giants (@ San Francisco)

San Francisco’s defense is VERY good, especially at shutting down opposing running games. Ballard should get a lot of touches in Week Ten as Eli will probably have to throw but still be under pressure much more than he was this past week. Plus, he is gaining trust with Big Play Ballard by the week.

Jake Ballard fantasy football Week 10 projection: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week Ten:

• Brandon Pettigrew – Chicago has a rough time defending TEs.

Sit Em TE: Dallas Clark (Jacksonville)

May he Rest In Peace.

Dallas Clark fantasy football Week 10 projection: 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD

Jerod’s Thoughts:

Hmm…well since Dallas Clark reportedly has a “significant leg injury” I suppose that’s a pretty good Sit ‘Em pick, though I hope you won’t take credit for that as a “hit” next week.

As for Ballard, I continue to like him, so I endorse that start ‘em pick, and I think Brandon Pettigrew could have success against the Bears like Brent Celek did last week.

As for the potential misses in Week 10, I continue to look at Jermichael Finley with skepticism because he just isn’t that involved in the Packers’ offense. He wouldn’t be in my top 12 TEs for this week, and I think you’d be well within your right to place a “prove it” tag on him.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 10: Defenses

[Editor's note: the rest of this post is written by Jerod.]

Start Em Defense: Miami Dolphins (v Washington)

The Dolphins have played better than their record, and their defense showed a lot in last week’s drubbing of the Chiefs. Kansas City isn’t a great team this year, but they can be explosive on offense. The Dolphins wouldn’t let them. This week they face a John Beck-led offense that could do nothing more than dump off to the running back last week against San Francisco.

Miami Dolphins fantasy Football Week 10 projection: 14 or fewer points, 3 or more sacks, 1 or more turnovers

Other Start em D/ST units for Week 10:

• I know that Philly’s D has let you down this year, but against John Skelton and the Cardinals it could be very worthwhile to start them this week.
• The Detroit Lions get to face the porous Bears’ O-Line. Please tell me you aren’t fooled by the Eagles going sackless against them Monday night; the Bears O-Line remains not very good.

Sit Em Defense: Cincinnati Bengals (v Pittsburgh)

I just have a bad feeling that the Steelers are going to exact revenge on Cincy for Sunday night’s loss to Baltimore. I think a major part of it is that I don’t totally trust the Bengals’ D yet. They are good, but are they great?

Big Ben, Mike Wallace, and Antonio Brown can take full advantage of a good-but-not-great D, and I have a feeling that is what will happen here.

Cincinnati Bengals fantasy football Week 10 projection: 21 or more points, 2 sacks, 1 turnover

• Houston’s D has been great this year, but I just have a feeling they will underperform your expectations against a desperate Tampa Bay team in Tampa.
• Stay away from the Saints’ and Falcons’ defenses in Week 10. I would not be surprised if 70+ points are scored in that game.

**********

There are your start em, sit em picks for Week 10 of the fantasy football season. You know the drill from here. Read ‘em, digest ‘em, and then ask about ‘em. The comment section awaits your lineup-specific questions below.

**********

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First, thank you to everyone who understood my main point: that it’s simply too early to say whether or not Timmy will be good or bad yet.  In no way was I trying to say that Tebow will be better than Elway, Marino, and Manning; my point was how do we REALLY know after only five starts?

Second, while Tebow’s struggles have been magnified because Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, and Christian Ponder have looked so good thus far as rookies.   I think we can all agree that all three of those guys have MUCH better weapons around them than anything the Broncos have this season.

• Cam Newton has FOUR offensive weapons that are better than anyone on the Broncos: Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Greg Olsen.
• Andy Dalton has three: AJ Green, Cedric Benson, and a fantastic defense (seriously…Dalton threw for 160 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs this week…and his team won by TWENTY-TWO!!!! The only way Tebow and the Broncos are doing that anytime soon is if they play Vanderbilt).
• As for the Vikings, Christian Ponder has the best non-QB offensive player in the game on his team (Adrian Peterson) as well as a receiver (Percy Harvin) who is better than anyone in Denver now that Brandon Lloyd is gone.

Once you factor in the defenses (Denver’s is second to last in the league when it comes to scoring defense and worse than Cincinnati, Carolina, and Minnesota in every single category), it shouldn’t surprise anybody that both Tebow and Orton have struggled in 2011 so far with the Broncos.

I guess what’s so troubling to me is the unforgiving stance everyone is taking with Tebow.  Look at the following two stat lines and tell me which QB you would rather have.

• QB #1 – 57 of 118 for 891 yards.  48% completion. 7.55  yards per attempt. 7 TDs, 3 INTs.
• QB #2 – 64 for 137 for 638 yards.  47% completion. 4.65 yards per attempt. 4 TDs, 2 INTs.

Though neither QB is all that desirable, anyone in his or her right mind would take QB #1, who has thrown for more yards, a slightly higher completion rate, and scored more TDs as well.  This is all before taking into account the fact that QB #1 outrushed QB #2 by a margin of 302 to 43 in those games as well.

In this example I’m comparing Tim Tebow to Blaine Gabbert – a guy who was drafted higher than Tebow and who has, so far, gotten through the media scope almost completely unscathed.  In fact, articles have been written explaining why he deserves a free pass for his entire first year.

Once again, I don’t necessarily think Tebow WILL make it as an NFL QB…but shouldn’t we at least make him earn our judgments either way?  Let’s extend to him the same long rookie leash that we give everybody else.

Onto this week’s start em, sit em picks!

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Advice for Week 9

Last Week’s Picks: 21 for 35 (60 %)

Note: last week’s top-line picks were made by Jerod

• Hits: Eli Manning, Cam Newton, Matt Hasselbeck, Tim Tebow, Philip Rivers, Darren Sproles, Peyton Hillis, Montario Hardesty, Knowshon Moreno, DeAngelo Williams, DeMarco Murray, Brandon Lloyd, Antonio Brown, Michael Crabtree, Steve Breaston, Eric Decker, Demariyus Thomas, Reggie Wayne, Brent Celek, Fred Davis, Owen Daniels
• Misses: Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chris Johnson, Mark Ingram, Ryan Torain, Bernard Scott, Sidney Rice, Deion Branch, Jake Ballard, Vernon Davis, Dallas Clark, Heath Miller, Scott Chandler.

As a quick reminder, the following teams have a bye during week 9:

• Detroit
• Minnesota
• Carolina
• Jacksonville

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Quarterbacks

Start Em QB: Matt Ryan, Atlanta (v Indianapolis)

Ryan is currently ranked as the 14th overall fantasy QB, meaning in most leagues he should be a backup.  Fortunately for Matty Ice owners, the Falcons are traveling to Indy this week, where they will face one of the worst pass defenses in history.

Start Matt Ryan with no regrets in week 9.

Matt Ryan fantasy football Week 9 projection: 275 yards passing, 2 TDs

Less Obvious Start Em QB: Tim Tebow, Denver (v Oakland)

Don’t laugh.

The Raiders have the 24th ranked pass defense in the league this year and have gotten into several shootouts with teams already.  I understand the lack of weapons in the Denver passing game may scare you, but Tebow performed pretty well against Oakland last year (150 passing yards, 80 rushing yards, and 2 TDs).

If you have a top 8 QB, you shouldn’t be starting Tebow, but if Matt Stafford or Cam Newton is your starter and thus is on a bye, don’t sweat starting Timmy in week 9.

Tim Tebow fantasy football Week 9 projection: 140 yards passing, 60 yards rushing, 2 total TDs (and probably two total turnovers also)

Other start ‘em QBs for Week Nine:

• Tony Romo – This week, the Romo Coaster goes back up against the Seattle Seahawks…before throwing his fans and owners off a cliff in week ten against the Bills.
• Philip Rivers – The Chargers will probably be playing from behind, and the Packers’ secondary has been very average so far.

Sit Em QB: Joe Flacco, Baltimore (v Pittsburgh)

Don’t be fooled into thinking that since he lit up the Steelers in week one, he will do it again.  He won’t.

I said it a few weeks ago, but I’ll say it again. If you didn’t think Dick LeBeau was a genius before this year, just consider that for over a decade the Steelers have been impossible to run against yet in 2012, as soon as the NFL became a full-fledged passing league, he transformed the Steelers’ defense into the league’s #1 ranked passing defense, allowing opponents a paltry 5.1 yards per attempt.  Unbelievable.

Stay away from Flacco this week.

Joe Flacco fantasy football Week 9 projection: 175 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Nine:

• Ryan Fitzpatrick – Playing the Jets who are coming off a bye…yikes.
• Ben Roethlisberger – I think this week’s Steelers/Ravens game will be a true throwback affair.

Jerod’s thoughts

I love the Ryan pick, and I think he is a guy who owners need to keep an eye on as we move into the second half of the season. He hasn’t been a great fantasy quarterback so far this year, but with a lot of dome games and some favorable matchups coming up, he could be a top-10 QB from here on out, which is all that matters.

As for Tebow, he certainly has more potential value this week than he did last week against the Suh and the Lions, but I think there is a lot of risk there. I want to see him play a decent game from start to finish before I trust my one QB slot to him. What if he’s awful and gets pulled at halftime? Without the backing of his own coaching staff, and how poor he’s looked, I can’t justify starting him unless I’m desperate.

And yes, sit Flacco. He couldn’t get a pass in the end zone last week versus Arizona, and now has zero TD passes in three of his last four games (and in the other game he had just one).

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Running Backs

Start Em RB: Beanie Wells, Arizona (v St. Louis)

While I don’t necessarily love Beanie Wells’ prospects for the rest of the season due to his lingering injury issues, I really like him this week against the Rams.  St. Louis has proven to be vulnerable on the ground this season, and Beanie is coming off of a fantastic game against a very good defense in Baltimore.

Despite his lingering knee issues, look for Beanie to have one or two more good efforts before he tails off to end the year.

Beanie Wells fantasy football Week 9 projection: 95 yards rushing, 2 TDs

Other start ‘em RBs for Week Nine:

• Michael Turner – Against the Colts…okay this one is too obvious, so let’s just ignore it and move on.
• LeGarrette Blount – At this point, it’s still a little early to completely trust Blount, but I really like the Bucs’ running game this week against a suddenly reeling Saints team.  New Orleans just got lit up on the ground against St. Louis, and the Bucs will be looking to keep Dreww Brees off the field as much as possible.  Give Blount your complete trust this week.

Sit Em RB: Fred Jackson, Buffalo (v New York Jets)

I actually like Fred Jackson, who has yet to have a really bad day, a lot for the rest of the season.  However, now is as good a time as ever for that first clunker of 2011 with the Jets coming to town fresh off a bye.

Rex Ryan’s team hasn’t been as consistently good against the run this year as in years’ past, but it was a point of emphasis for their defense all week.  Look for Jackson and the entire Bills offense to have a tough time on Sunday.

Fred Jackson fantasy football Week 9 projection: 40 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week Nine:

• Redskins’ Running Backs – I think Ryan Torain and Roy Helu can be good backs, but I also think that with John Beck starting the 49ers defense, which is already good against the run, will be able to send an 8th man into the box. This is not good news for the Redskins in real life or fantasy.
• Ryan Mathews – Just trust me that when the Chargers are down 21-0 with 12 minutes left in the second quarter, or Mathews is dinged up again, you will wish you had left him on the bench.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Beanie Wells is a very inviting start this weekend, and I would not be surprised to see him finish as a top 5 overall player this week. Except that I would…because I also wouldn’t be surprised to see him scratched from the starting lineup at the last second or removed midway through the game because of an injury. Such is life with Beanie Wells. This is a week to definitely have him in your lineup, but just remember to take nothing for granted on Sunday morning.

And while I agree with your basic premise that Fred Jackson could struggle this week, he’s not sitting on any of my rosters. The Jets have not been their previously dominant selves against the run, and Jackson has earned every-week start status for his ability to run and be a receiver out of the backfield. How many true lead backs are there anymore in the NFL? FJax is one. You better have two or three elite 2011 options if you’re even thinking about sitting him.

And I agree on Blount. A great option for this week, and a solid buy low candidate if you’re looking to make a trade.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Wide Receivers

Start Em WR: Julio Jones, Atlanta (v Indianapolis)

At this point, you all know how I feel about Julio Jones.  I think he’s overrated.  I think AJ Green is 4x better than him.  I think Jones drops a lot of balls, and I think he’s a poor route-runner.

And that’s all well and good, but he’s still super-duper talented athletically…and he’s playing the Colts this week.  I expect at least two home run plays from him in yet another Colts blowout loss.

Julio Jones fantasy football Week 9 projection: 125 yards receiving, 2 TDs

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Nine: 

• Plaxico Burress – He’s already a great target in the end zone, and I have a sneaky suspicion that he and the Sanchize got even MORE acquainted over their bye week.  Even if they didn’t, they are still playing the porous Buffalo passing defense.  Good day for Plaxico.
• Antonio Brown – Ed Reed will be shading towards Mike Wallace all game, and while that won’t completely shut down the speedster, I think that Antonio Brown will rise to the occasion like he did last week and catch a lot of balls underneath, as well as pick up another TD or two.

Sit Em WR: Stevie Johnson, Buffalo (v New York Jets)

Revis Island.  Off a bye week.  Oh boy.

Stevie Johnson fantasy football Week 9 projection: 45 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week Nine:

• Nate Washington – Cincinnati has been surprisingly great against the pass, ranking fifth overall in passing defense.  Look for Washington to be bottled up, especially since the Titans lack a really reliable #2 option now that Chris Johnson has passed away.
• Patriots’ Wide Receivers not named Wes Welker – Uh oh…the Steelers just showed us that the Pats have absolutely no deep threat.  Needless to say, it’s not Welker’s, Hernandez’s, or Gronkowski’s fault.

Jerod’s thoughts:

At this point in the presentation, I can deduce two things: you think Atlanta is going to roughshod over Indianapolis (safe prediction) and you trust Rex Ryan and the Jets’ D to shut down a Buffalo offense that has been pretty good this year (a riskier but not outrageous bet). With that said, I agree with you on sitting Stevie Johnson, assuming someone has strong depth at WR. Stevie is not devoid of value, because he has a nose for the end zone, but Darrelle Revis has certainly locked down better receivers.

I also like Julio Jones this week. I don’t love him, because I think the Falcons have moved away from trying to force-feed him the ball. His targets will now come more in the flow of the offense, and if the Colts jump out to a big lead over Indy – a likely occurrence with Atlanta’s ability to run the ball – then they won’t need to take as many shots down the field. I think it’s a good matchup for Jones, but without the upside you seem to think.

One guy not mentioned that people need to keep their eye on is Michael Crabtree. He is healthy, and having Braylon Edwards opposite him will “take the top off the defense” as they say. Alex Smith looks at Crabtree first in the passing game. In PPR leagues especially, he will be golden for the rest of the year.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Tight Ends

Start Em TE: Jake Ballard, New York Giants (v New England)

After seeing Heath Miller step out of the time machine and look like a young Tony Gonzalez on Sunday, I’m willing to say that the Patriots have a VERY difficult time stopping opposing tight ends.  I fully expect Eli Manning to take note of that, and use Jake Ballard a lot, especially early on in Week 9.

Jake Ballard fantasy football Week 9 projection: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Nine:

• Dustin Keller – He’s having a solid year so far, and Sanchez loves him nearly as much as Plax in the red zone.
• Vernon Davis – He will have a nice bounce back week against a Washington defense that is actually pretty good.  Look for Alex Smith to check down quite a bit to the big tight end.

Sit Em TE: Scott Chandler, Buffalo (v New York Jets)

There’s no way he scores any more TDs this week against the Jets.

Scott Chandler fantasy football Week 9 projection: 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD

Jerod’s thoughts:

I’m now officially beginning to wonder if Rex Ryan wrote this article. You chose a Bill as your sit em RB, WR, and TE, and you mentioned the Bearded Wonder in your “other” section under the QBs. Jon, bro, we get it: you think the Jets’ defense is going to have a strong effort coming off the bye.

I love Ballard. Eli Manning always seems to turn his tight end into a fantasy relevant commodity as the season goes along. Same thing is happening here.

As for Chandler, he made me eat my disparaging words last week, but I agree with you that starting him would make me very nervous this week. He has value, because he’s always a TD threat, but it’s all or nothing with him. Just know that when you start him (and know that none of us can predict with any certainty when he will or will not find openings in the end zone).

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: D/ST

[Editor's Note: because we would not allow Jon to pick the Jets’ defense as his “start ‘em” defense/special teams unit, he decided to boycott this last section of the post. What a baby. So these picks are made by Jerod.]

Start ‘em D/ST: Oakland Raiders (v Denver)

Every year I try to target specific offenses that are so inept as to make even mediocre defenses valuable for one week. The Broncos made the Dolphins’ rag-tag defense very valuable two weeks ago, and an already strong fantasy defense in Detroit become out-of-this-world valuable last week.

This week, the Broncos and struggling QB Tim Tebow face Oakland. The Raiders are physical up front, which is the same formula the Lions used to pressure Tebow last week. Until the young QB proves he can avoid sacks and fumbles, I’m starting any D going up against the Broncos.

Also working in your favor if you nab the Raiders: Jacoby Ford. He’s a weekly threat to get you a bonus TD.

Oakland D/ST fantasy football Week 9 projection: 17 or fewer points allowed, 4+ sacks, 2+ turnovers, 1 TD

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week Nine:

• I like both the Pittsburgh and Baltimore defenses this week. I agree with Jon that this game will be an old school battle. (If by some chance you have to pick one or the other, go with Pittsburgh. Joe Flacco is playing far worse than Big Ben right now).
• I’d want to stay away from Washington offensive players this week against San Francisco, but the Washington defense isn’t a bad option. The 49ers have to travel cross-country and play an early game, which is rarely a good recipe for success for West Coast teams. And with San Fran already being more of a running team than an explosive passing team, it limits their potential to put up big scoring numbers, especially against a solid D like Washington’s.

Sit ‘em D/ST: Seattle Seahawks (v Dallas Cowboys)

I don’t know how many people have been employing the Seahawks D, but there was a groundswell of support for them a few weeks back because they are decent against the run. While that remains true, and the Seahawks have some decent matchups moving forward, I don’t like their chances against an angry, embarrassed Cowboys team that gets to lick its wounds at home this week.

The Cowboys’ offense isn’t nearly as good as everyone thought it would be coming into the season, but it’s much better than it showed last week. The poor Seahawks will feel the brunt of it this weekend.

Seattle D/ST fantasy football Week 9 projection: 27+ points, 2 or fewer sacks, 1 turnover

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week Nine:

• I wouldn’t want either the Giants or Patriots defenses going this week. That game just smells like one that gets into the 30s on both sides.
• The Jets’ D is not as obvious a start candidate as Jon would have you think it is, and I do not say this just to needle Jon. While I like the Jets’ D is general, they simply have not been a dominant unit this year, and the Bills have been a pretty consistent offense. I would not at all be surprised to see this game played in the 20s, which means the Jets would need a defensive TD or a bunch of sacks/turnovers to turn in a great day. It’s possible, but I don’t consider it likely.

 ###

Best of luck to everyone in Week 9.

Make sure you also take a look at Andy’s waiver wire wire pickups for Week 9, and then load up the comment queue with questions. We’ll be around all week to answer them, and of course we’ll be here on Sunday morning to help out with those difficult last minute start/sit questions.

This is a question I’ve been thinking about a lot over the past several weeks, as I continue to be more and more impressed (and surprised) by how well Cam Newton is transitioning to the NFL in his first season.

Cam Newton’s Impressive Start

Frankly, I did not think that Newton was going to become a good NFL quarterback. I certainly did not think it would happen this quickly. But this is why I blog about the NFL in my underpants while typing with Cheetos-stained fingers and other people get paid to scout and draft players*.

* – Of course, plenty of people who do not blog about the NFL in their underpants with Cheetos-stained fingers, and who get paid to scout players, agreed with my assessment about Newton. This just goes to show how inexact a science scouting quarterbacks can be. Except for this guy.

As good as he’s been,nobody is ready to put Cam Newton into Canton yet. It takes more than 8 statistically strong games to classify someone as an elite QB, especially when six of those games have resulted in losses.

In fact, we’re going to learn a lot about Newton over these final 8 weeks while the Panthers essentially “play out the string” and Newton is forced to endure the first losing season of his football career. Leading your team in spite of adversity is one of the most important attributes for a successful NFL QB. We’ll see if Newton has that ability. So far he’s given us no reason to doubt him.

Certainly there is no reason to doubt Newton’s physical skills. He is passing for nearly 300 yards per game (299.1), completing 60.6% of his passes, and has thrown 11 touchdown passes against 9 interceptions. Those are solid numbers for any quarterback, let alone a rookie, and they are made even more impressive when his superlative running stats added to the discussion: 5.1 yards per carry and 7 rushing touchdowns.

And the numbers don’t tell the whole story.

Whereas Tim Tebow’s numbers are not nearly as poor as you might think, and in fact compare favorably to several Hall of Famers’ stats through five starts, Tebow hasn’t looked at all like an NFL QB. Cam Newton, on the other hand, has. He’s played with poise throughout games, including late, and he’s shown that he can make all the throws. He also has shown the ability to hit guys for big plays down the field when they are a open, which is an absolute requisite skill for a quarterback in the NFL. When a QB has a chance to make a big play, it must be made more often than not; simple as that.

Newton has been far from perfect, and he has plenty of growing to do, but I don’t think anyone is anything but highly impressed with his first eight games as an NFL quarterback. Many may not have been as low on Newton as I was before the season, but I doubt anyone other than Cam himself expected this kind of success out of the gate.

And all of this leads me back to my original question: how many NFL teams would trade their QB right now for Cam Newton?

Hypothetically Speaking…

For our purposes, assume that everything is how it is (team records, contracts, rosters, coaches, etc) and that every NFL team is given the option of swapping its current QB right now for Newton. I admit that is 100% ridiculous because Carolina wouldn’t trade Cam Newton for anyone (except maybe Aaron Rodgers…), but humor me for the sake of discussion. The result of this hypothetical transaction would be Newton quarterbacking the team for the rest of this season, in place of their current QB, and then being their QB through the rest of his rookie contract.

There are a number of easy answers on both sides, teams that wouldn’t even think twice about saying yes or no:

• Automatic No: New England, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, New Orleans, New York Giants
• Automatic Yes: Miami, Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver, Washington, Seattle

I shouldn’t have to defend any of the automatic “no” choices. Each team has a Super Bowl-winning QB, and each team feels it is a contender this season. As tantalized as they may be by Newton, none of these teams would trade their guy for him. (And anyone who doesn’t think Eli deserves this kind of respect is, in my opinion, crazy.)

As for the automatic yeses, I can maybe-possibly see some saying that Tennessee and Jacksonville have “QBs of the future” in Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert, but both teams would have rather had Newton in the draft and surely would rather have him now. These and the others are absolute no-brainers to me.

Now let’s go one-by-one through the remaining teams and figure out a) if they would trade their current QB for Cam Newton, and b) if they should trade their current QB for Cam Newton, because I bet the answers won’t often be the same. Of course these are all just my opinions based on how I see each team’s situation.

As always, I encourage disagreement, discussion, and even constructive criticism. That’s what comment sections are for. And there is a poll at the end of this post so we can crowdsource some kind of consensus for the non-obvious teams.

Here goes…

Buffalo Bills – Ryan Fitzpatrick (current record: 5-2)

The Bills just locked Fitzpatrick up to a long-term contract that will pay him $24 million and keep him as the signal caller in Buffalo for at least the next 2-3 years. Considering the deal Arizona signed Kevin Kolb to in the offseason, Fitzpatrick certainly deserves this contract. He has passed for 1,739 yards this year and twice as many touchdowns as interceptions, and he’s led Buffalo to first place in the AFC East. There is perhaps concern that Fitzpatrick is playing over his head, as his current completion rate is 8 points higher than his career average, and his QB rating is 20 points higher than his career average, but Fitzpatrick also could just be showing the normal progression that a good young NFL quarterback will make.

Personally, I’m not sold on Fitzpatrick as a top-tier option for the future who can compete against the likes of Brady, Roethlisberger, and Peyton Manning If He Plays Again (his new name). Fitzpatrick is a solid guy who can transition you from one franchise QB to the next, but I don’t think he is the type of QB who will make you a winner year in, year out. Cam Newton may be. But with the Bills sitting in first place in the AFC East, and the good feelings of the contract still fresh, I don’t think they’d make the move even though I would.

• Would they? No
• Should they? Yes

New York Jets – Mark Sanchez (4-3)

This is one of the more intriguing ones.

Even though Mark Sanchez has really done nothing to show that he can or will become a top-tier NFL quarterback (54.7% completions, 41 TD:39 INT for career), he has ridden the coattails of a great defense and an above-average running game to two straight AFC title games. His coach continues to profess confidence in him, and I think would rather win with “his guy” Sanchez, or die trying, than admit he was wrong and bring in another QB…at least right now.

Simply put: I think most objective people would make this trade in a heartbeat, and maybe the Jets front office would force it to happen; but I think Rex Ryan is so dug in with Sanchez that he’d do everything to veto it and give Sanchez another chance to finish the job this year. (I’ll be curious to hear from Jets fans on this one…)

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes

Cincinnati Bengals – Andy Dalton (5-2)

Here is another one where short-term success might lead to myopic thinking.

The Bengals are, shockingly, sitting at 5-2 with their red-haired rookie QB and glue-handed rookie WR leading the offense. The Bengals’ defense has been great so far this season, but Dalton has been far from just a caretaker. He’s thrown 9 TDs and is completing 62.4% of his passes. Dalton’s sprint out of the gate has been nothing short of shocking.

But here is where I throw a little cold water on the fire: Cincinnati has beaten Cleveland, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Seattle. Buffalo is good, the other four teams are not. So do we really know how good Dalton is? I don’t think so. In his one start against a god defense this year, Week 3 versus San Francisco, he was putrid. We’ll know a lot more about Dalton after his four games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Like many teams, Cincy would have jumped at the chance to draft Cam Newton, but their first place positioning in the AFC North, and the fans’ growing attachment to Dalton, plus their history of personnel ineptitude, lead me to believe that the Bengals would forgo the chance to get Newton to hang onto Dalton. It would be a mistake.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes

As you can see, I have little faith in Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, or Andy Dalton, at least in relation to Cam Newton; but I also have little faith that any of their teams would trade them for Newton.

This next one though might be the most intriguing of all.

Baltimore Ravens – Joe Flacco (5-2)

Ever since Joe Flacco has taken over as QB in Baltimore, the Ravens’ offense has been as up-and-down as any offense in the NFL. Flacco has seven games in which he has tossed three or more touchdowns. He also 24 games in which he’s thrown zero touchdowns, including four playoff games (though he often gets credited with being a “winning” playoff QB). All the while, Baltimore has had a good-to-great defense and a solid running game.

Now in his fourth year, and with just one TD pass in his last four games, can the Ravens and team leaders like Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs really still have that much confidence in Flacco? I know they call him “Joe Cool” because he never seems rattled, but that’s mostly because he barely looks like he has a pulse at times. Cam Newton also never gets rattled, but he plays with an energy and smile that are both infectious. Yes, I’m one of those who believes that how you “look” and what your body language says means something when you’re the QB. Whatever Flacco may have over Newton in experience is negated by his comatose on-field appearance.

All of this is to say that I would, in a heartbeat, trade Flacco for Newton if I was the Ravens. After the last four games, and with Lewis especially running out of time, I think the Ravens would too.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes

Indianapolis Colts – Peyton Manning (0-8)

Of course the Colts would trade Curtis Painter straight up for Cam Newton. Duh. But what’s the fun in that? The real juicy question would be, right this very moment, would the Colts trade Peyton Manning If He Plays Again for Newton? And the answer is that none of us have enough information to answer. It would all come down to Manning’s health.

If there is even an iota of a chance that he can come back and play at 80-85% of his previous effectiveness, Indy would hold onto Peyton. But if they doubt he ever plays again, even if he wants to and is working like the dickens to get back, wouldn’t Indy have to trade for Cam as opposed to waiting around to see if they suck enough for Luck?

Ultimately, I think the uncertainty would tip the scales in favor of keeping Manning, and that’s the right call. It feels like there is something unfinished about Manning’s tenure in Indianapolis, and though I logically know that neck injuries can end careers, I’d still be shocked if Manning never suits up for Indy again. So I can’t see Indy pulling the trigger on this move. And with the team possibly positioning itself to draft Andrew Luck anyway, there would be no reason to trade Manning before they know as much as possible about his potential comeback.

I anticipate a lot of debate and perhaps disagreement about this one. In fact, I’m already starting to disagree with myself. I better just move along.

• Would they? No
• Should they? No

Houston Texans – Matt Schaub (5-3)

I don’t think for a second that Houston would even entertain this thought, not with Schaub and Kubiak finally on the cusp of making it to the playoffs. As good/bland as Schaub may be, good/bland isn’t necessarily an awful thing for a QB to be on a team that has a great running game, an elite WR, and a strong defense. This is the first time Houston has had all three working in the same season, and Schaub is the right guy to lead them. I wouldn’t mess with what they have going right now, not with the AFC South up for grabs this year and into the future, and I don’t think they would either.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No

San Diego Chargers – Philip Rivers (4-2)

Coming into this season it would have seemed laughable for Philip Rivers to be on this list, and perhaps it still is, but Rivers has thrown 7 TDs against 9 INTs this year, and it’s not like he has a Super Bowl title or many playoff skins on the wall to grant him immunity from at least entering this discussion.

Still, I doubt there is a chance the Chargers would seriously consider it. Rivers has a strong regular season track record over multiple seasons, and he has undoubtedly been hurt by Antonio Gates’ absence early this season. Just like I don’t think teams should overreact to a fast early season start and overrate their players (as may be the case right now in Buffalo and Cincy), I don’t think teams should underrate their players because of a slow start.

The irony of ironies, of course, is that the slow-starting Chargers are off to a fast 4-2 start during the season when their QB has more or less stunk. Go figure.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No

Philadelphia Eagles – Michael Vick (3-4)

Another one that is fascinating to think about. The Eagles went all-in on this season and are just now starting to dig themselves out of their early season hole. As tempting as it might be to get Newton, who is similar to Vick but with 6-7 years less mileage, I can’t see Andy Reid doing it. Vick is the better choice for this season and the Eagles are in it to win it in 2011.

That said, I think Newton is showing the ability to do a lot of the things Vick couldn’t or wouldn’t do early in his career. I’d love to see what Reid could do with a guy like Newton, who is not quite the runner Vick is but who is light years ahead of where Vick was as a passer in his rookie season. Just because the Eagles picked this year as the year to go for it all doesn’t mean they should necessarily mortgage a chance to improve themselves for the long term. And is Vick really playing so well that Newton couldn’t come close to replicating him, thus keeping the Eagles in contention this year? I don’t think so.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Dallas Cowboys – Tony Romo (3-4)

Whatever my answer is here it is sure to stir up some controversy, just because that’s how any discussions about Tony Romo are sure to go.

I’ve always been a Romo supporter, thinking that his critics didn’t give him enough credit for being one of the top 10 QBs in the league. While I still think Romo is an above average QB, I’m not as sold on him anymore as a potential champion. Sure, with the right supporting cast he could win a Super Bowl – hell, Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl – but I’m no longer sure that Romo can lead a franchise to a Super Bowl, and there is a big difference.

I don’t know if Cam Newton can lead a team to a Super Bowl either. It’s way to early to even consider such questions. But we did just see him lead his college team to a championship in the toughest conference in all of college football, all while rumors and innuendo and investigations were swirling around him constantly. Newton’s got it, whatever it is, and Tony Romo hasn’t proven that he does. So wouldn’t it be worth taking a chance on Newton if you’re convinced Romo probably can’t be the guy to lead a champion?

The answer to this one comes down to your belief in Romo. I no longer believe. Give me Cam. Unfortunately for Cowboys fans, Jerry Jones probably still believes in Romo. At the least, he believes in his own ego and won’t want to admit Romo can’t get it done. Hell, he wouldn’t even trade Martellus Bennett to Cincinnati for a second round pick. Why would he trade Romo for Newton?

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Detroit Lions – Matthew Stafford (6-2)

I considered putting the Lions in the automatic no category, but Mr. Glass didn’t deserve to be considered on par with Brady, Ben, Aaron Rogers, and Drew Brees. He hasn’t played a full season yet, and he hasn’t been so transcendent when he has played that Detroit wouldn’t at least consider the move.

I don’t think they’d do it though. Even with Stafford making way more money than Cam, he is the guy they have built around, and I don’t think the Lions would shake up the franchise that drastically when it is finally experiencing a true ascension.

As for me, I’d do it. Cam is showing that he knows how to utilize a top-fight receiver, and he he does not carry the same injury-prone reputation of Stafford. Add in the cost savings of Newton’s contract over Stafford’s, and I’d much rather have the rookie over the third year guy, even for the rest of the this year and certainly beyond.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Chicago Bears – Jay Cutler (4-3)

See the entry above about Joe Flacco, replace his name with “Jay Cutler” and replace “Ray Lewis” with “Brian Urlacher”. There is no reason for me to repeat myself.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes

Minnesota Vikings – Christian Ponder (2-6)

Ponder and the Vikings beat Newton and the Panthers this past weekend, with Ponder having his second straight impressive start. And while Vikings fans are slowly talking themselves into the Ponder Era, the reality is that the Vikings would have traded St. Paul to draft Newton last year, and as polished as Ponder seems to be both on and off the field, he doesn’t have 1/10th the physical potential of Newton. Minnesota probably should have been an automatic.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Josh Freeman (4-3)

Freeman was the up-and-coming superstar young quarterback coming into this season, but he has fallen back down to earth a bit through the first half of the year. His interceptions are way up, and he just doesn’t seem as comfortable or confident as he was last year, when he and rookie Mike Williams were as explosive as just about any QB-WR combo in the league.

Still, despite his struggles, I think Tampa Bay is committed to Freeman as the future of its franchise, and I know that Raheem Morris (who coached Freeman in college) believes in his young QB. Freeman is another guy who surprised me by having a smoother transition to the NFL than I thought he would. He has all of the physical tools to bust out of his current slump and still become a top-10 QB. I’d hold tight, and I think Tampa Bay would too.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No
  

Atlanta Falcons – Matt Ryan (4-3)

Like the Lions with Stafford, I don’t think Atlanta would consider making this move for more than a few seconds, but Ryan is not quite the slam dunk franchise QB that some make him out to be. He has not risen to the occasion in the Falcons’ biggest games, and he does not possess the accuracy that the top flight quarterbacks all have. He does “look” the part, he’s tough, and he’s a strong leader, which is why Atlanta is surely satisfied with Ryan and not looking to move on, nor should they be. As many questions as I have about Ryan, he’s shown enough to make me think that, unlike Romo, he could lead a franchise to a Super Bowl. With the investment Atlanta has already made in him, they’d hold tight, and I agree.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No
  

San Francisco 49ers – Alex Smith (6-1)

Another very, very intriguing one simply because of how this season has started. This one falls right in line with the Bills and Bengals, two teams doing far better than anyone expected thanks to solid play from their QB. Smith has not been asked to win games for the 49ers this year, he’s just been asked not to lose them with a great defense and solid running game by his side. And he hasn’t.

Still, this is Alex Smith. He has not done anything spectacular this year that Cam Newton couldn’t have done, even as a rookie. The issue would be whether Newton would have made mistakes that Smith wouldn’t have made to sabotage the 49ers in a game or two. That I don’t know. But I do know that, again, this is Alex Smith. As solid as he’s been, and as much of an impact as Jim Harbaugh has made on him, the difference in talent and swagger between he and Newton is obvious.

To me, the 6-1 record of the 49ers, and their incredible four game lead this early in this season, would make the team more likely to do such a deal. They’d have some cushion if Newton struggled to adapt to his new surroundings; though one thing we have learned about Newton is that he rarely if ever struggles to adapt. It may be his greatest strength of all.

• Would they? Yes (Well…maybe…probably)
  
• Should they? Yes
  

St. Louis Rams – Sam Bradford (1-6)

Following right along with my thoughts on Stafford and Ryan, I don’t think there is much of a chance that St. Louis would pull the plug on the Bradford Era already, especially considering Bradford was the NFL’s Rookie of the Year last year and just needs protection and a few good targets to showcase his pinpoint accuracy. But like Stafford and Ryan, Bradford hasn’t earned Automatic No status. So the Rams might think about it, especially considering the money, but I think they’d stick with Bradford, and I wouldn’t blame them. I still think he’s going to be a star.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No
  

Arizona Cardinals – Kevin Kolb (1-6)

I thought long and hard about putting Arizona in Automatic Yes territory, but would they really cut the cord on Kolb so soon after giving him a long-term deal? Of course they should, but we know how egos sometimes get in the way of sound decision making, so I just wonder if they would.

Ultimately, I think so. Larry Fitzgerald has to be watching Cam Newton resuscitate Steve Smith’s career and get horribly jealous. That’s what Kolb was supposed to do for Fitzy, but obviously he hasn’t come close. Not that Arizona should be surprised by this mind you, because Kolb is basically just doing exactly what he did in Philadelphia. What, should he have turned down the money?

I don’t think it would take Arizona very long to say yes here.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes

###

So, how many teams would trade their current QB for Cam Newton right now?

Okay, let’s tally up the “would they” column, as decided by me:

• No: Buffalo, New York Jets, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Houston, San Diego, Philadelphia, Dallas, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, St. Louis
• Yes: Baltimore, Chicago, Minnesota, San Francisco, Arizona

Combined with the automatics from up above, that means I think 14 teams would trade their current starting quarterback straight up for Cam Newton. That seems very low to me; and of course it would seem low to me because I personally project a lot of disconnect between what teams should do and what they would do were this a real rather than hypothetical situation.

If I tally it up in terms of my “should they” answers, it would look much different:

• No: Indianapolis, Houston, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, St. Louis
• Yes: Buffalo, New York Jets, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Dallas, Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota, San Francisco, Arizona

Based on what I would do in each team’s case, I think 20 teams’ QB situations would be improved immediately with Cam Newton. Maybe for a few there would be a short-term step back, but it would be worth it for the projected long-term steps forward.

But what I am really interested in here is your opinion.

Below is a poll that lists all of the teams I think are not obvious. Vote for all of the ones who you think should (not necessarily would) trade their current QB straight up for Cam Newton in our hypothetical fantasy. Then take to the comment section to state your peace or to agree/disagree with any of my assessments.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

I invite your thoughts below.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are currently 2-4 and are in need of a win against Dallas. Their only wins this season have come against St. Louis and Washington, which does not impress anyone, especially after the hype leading into the season.

Falling to 2-5 would put the Eagles in a very tough spot, as they still have games against Chicago, New England, and both New York teams. Their playoff hopes would likely be dashed, so they must come out and stop the Cowboys.

The Eagles have the top ranked rushing offense in the NFL, and will go up against Dallas’s top ranked defense in the NFL. Establishing the run game early will be key for the Eagles, considering Michael Vick is prone to throwing interceptions when the offense is one-dimensional.

On defense the Eagles must be wary of DeMarco Murrary of the Cowboys, who is coming off of a game against St. Louis in which he ran for 253 yards. He will not come anywhere near that number tonight, but the Eagles’ rush defense is towards the bottom of the league, so he can easily have a 100 yard game.

Dallas Cowboys

Dallas will look to give the Eagles their first loss following a bye under Andy Reid after winning the last twelve. The Cowboys are having a solid season, and could easily be undefeated. All three of their losses saw them leading in the fourth quarter before ultimately losing the lead and the game. They blew a three point lead against New England two weeks ago, a fourteen point lead against Detroit three weeks ago, and a fourteen point lead in the opener against the Jets.

Many enjoy to blame these losses on Tony Romo, but the battered quarterback is hardly to blame. He has been hurt all year, and is playing through the pain in order to help his team.

Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan is always talking in the media, and in the summer he said that the Cowboys would beat the Eagles. His defense is prone to fourth-quarter collapses, so it will be interesting to see how they hold up. Forcing a few turnovers can take the pressure off of Romo and the offense.

Cowboys-Eagles Prediction

The Cowboys should be able to hold off the Eagles and send Philly to 2-5 and last place in the NFC East.

Cowboys 27 – Eagles 21

**********

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles Game Info

• Cowboys-Eagles Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 30th at 8:20 ET on NBC
• Cowboys-Eagles Announcers: Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth
• Cowboys-Eagles Point Spread: Eagles -3
• Cowboys-Eagles Over-Under Odds: 50.5

As soon as I opened up my big mouth and proclaimed that 2011 was going to be the most prolific fantasy year ever, scoring around the league plummets.  No worries.

At least I had a great week on the predictions front, as I was right on nearly 80% of my picks.

As always, here is a quick look back at last week before we move on to week 7.

Week Six Recap

• Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Best Player/Start Em/Other Guys I Liked - (Hits:  Top 12 for QBs/TEs and Top 30 for RBs/WRs)
• Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Worst Player/Sit Em/Other Guys I Didn’t Like - (Hits:  13th or worse for QBs/TEs and 31st or worse for RBs/WRs)
• Quick Note:  The following players got injured and have been removed from the grading scale for fairness:  Peyton Hillis, Julio Jones

Overall: 30 for 38 (79%)

Best Player Predictions: 4 for 4

• Hits: Tom Brady, Ray Rice, Calvin Johnson, Aaron Hernandez

• Misses: None

Start Em Predictions: 2 for 3

• Hits: Tony Romo, Dez Bryant

• Misses: Benjamin Watson

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 13 for 15

• Hits: Josh Freeman, Michael Vick, Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Adrian Peterson, Mike Wallace, Wes Welker, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, Jimmy Graham, Dallas Clark, Jason Witten
• Misses: Ben Roethlisberger, Curtis Painter

Worst Player Predictions: 3 for 4

• Hits: Miami QB, Mike Thomas, Scott Chandler
• Misses: Jahvid Best

Sit Em Predictions: 2 for 4

• Hits: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jermichael Finley
• Misses: Arian Foster (although I was VERY close…), Steve Johnson

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 6 for 8

• Hits: Matt Schaub, Alex Smith, Sam Bradford, Tim Hightower, Ted Ginn Jr., Randall Cobb
• Misses: Jonathan Stewart, Mark Ingram

#####

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em Sit Em

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 7:

• Buffalo
• Cincinnati
• New England
• NY Giants
• Philadelphia
• San Francisco

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Quarterbacks

Projected Best Performer – Tony Romo

Dez Bryant and Miles Austin came back off of injury last week and played very well.  Unfortunately, none of them could get into the end zone against the Patriots’ defense.  Week seven should be a different story as the Cowboys host the hapless St. Louis Rams.  I feel VERY good about this pick – when you can seamlessly insert the word “hapless” into a sentence and nobody disagrees, you know you are in for a good week in fantasy.

Tony Romo Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 380 yards, 4 TDs

Start Em – Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben got off to a great start last week before Rashard Mendenhall got rolling.  Look for Big Ben to have a big day against the very average Arizona secondary.

Ben Roethlisberger Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 295 yards, 3 TDs

Other Start ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Seven:

• Jay Cutler – First of all, he just DOMINATES. Secondly, haven’t you been more and more impressed with him every week?  Tampa Bay is good, but not against the pass (27th in the league), and Cutler has clearly proven that he is an elite QB.  If Mike Martz really HAS solved their offensive line problems with the heavier protection packages, look for Cutler to dominate yet again.
• Matthew Stafford – Atlanta has the sixth worst passing defense in the league…and Calvin Johnson won’t be happy about getting shut out for the first game all year.  Big day for Stafford and Co.
• Drew Brees – He’s amazing…and playing the Colts.
• Matt Hasselbeck – As long as he stays healthy, he should put up some good numbers.  Plus, he’s playing the Texans who are in the bottom half of the league at defending the pass.

Projected Worst Performer – Blaine Gabbert

Rookie…who may not be that good…playing on MNF…against Baltimore.  Yikes.

Blaine Gabbert Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 140 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs

Sit Em – Cam Newton

Coming off of his first rough game of the year, Cam Newton would like to be playing someone soft on the defensive side of the ball.  Unfortunately, he will be facing the Redskins, who are sixth in the league against the pass.  Look for Cam to still get his points (running the ball and maybe scoring a TD or two), but not come anywhere close to the production he had in weeks one through five.

Cam Newton Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 230 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; 40 yards rushing.

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Seven:

• Mark Sanchez and Philip Rivers – San Diego and NY are ranked 1st and 4th against the pass respectively.  Don’t expect either team to really air it out in this one.
• Kevin Kolb – Isn’t it an amazing testament to Dick LeBeau that for years you couldn’t run on the Steelers, and as soon as the league turned pass-happy the Steelers became impossible to pass against?  So far, they are second in the league against the pass, allowing a paltry 5.9 yards per attempt.  Wow.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I agree that Tony Romo is a start this week against the Rams’ secondary, but it should be noted that I was VERY high on Romo last week against New England and he disappointed. I think there are some real confidence issues on the Dallas offense. Watch this game carefully. If Romo doesn’t have a big day with Dez and Miles, and Jason Garrett continues to be a conservative play caller, I’m going to start to worry about Romo’s fantasy potential for the rest of the season.

As for Gabbert, I think you’re over-shooting his potential. One TD against Baltimore? Only in extreme garbage time. (So I guess it’s possible…)

I don’t know if you opinions on Cutler and Cam will be popular, but I agree with them. Sound reasoning on both.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Running Backs

Projected Best Performer – Ray Rice

Monday Night Football against the Jaguars.  Don’t get your hopes up if you have a ten point lead going into Monday if the other guy has Ray Rice.

Ray Rice Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 190 total yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Ryan Torain

Torain got a lot of touches last week, and the Panthers are last in the league against the run.  Torain, and maybe even Roy Helu should have a very good game against the fighting Cam-Cams.

Ryan Torain Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 140 total yards, 1 TDs

Other Start ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Seven:

• Whoever is rushing for TB – Either way, he should have a good game against a poor Chicago front seven.
• Rashard Mendenhall – Back to back productive weeks for the Pittsburgh running game, and finally a good week for Mendenhall, who has been extremely disappointing this season.
• Michael Turner – Detroit’s outstanding defensive line is surprisingly lackluster against the run.  Plus, ATL is trying to get back to their old, conservative ways.  Big day for Michael Turner.

Projected Worst Performer – GB Running Backs

Green Bay’s running backs aren’t good…and Minnesota’s rush defense is really good…and it doesn’t matter because Aaron Rodgers and the Packers simply don’t need to run the ball.

Packers’ RBs Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 65 total yards

Sit Em – Willis McGahee

The Dolphins will be thinking one thing this week: “let’s see if Tim Tebow can beat us.”  They will be stacking the box to stuff the run, and they are already great against the run (third in the league).  This is especially staggering considering they have been so awful this year and have faced offenses that have been conserving leads late in games.  Look for McGahee and Moreno to have very quiet weeks as Miami and everyone else watches to see if Timmy can beat them.

Knowshon Moreno Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 45 total yards

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Seven:

• Adrian Peterson – Green Bay is great against the run…and might be up by 60 points in the first quarter.  Just think about it.
• Rams’ Running Backs – Dallas is #1 against the run…and could be playing with a lead for most of the game.
• Jonathan Stewart – Washington’s defense is solid all over, and Stewart will be left out of the mix this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

First off, just so we’re clear: DO NOT SIT ADRIAN PETERSON. Okay? Under no circumstances does this guy ever come out of your lineup. Is Green Bay a potentially troublesome matchup from a touch perspective? Sure. And are they good against the run? Yes, they’re pretty good. But this is ADRIAN PETERSON. Start him. Always.

Moving on now…

I would never tell anyone to sit Ray Rice, and you shouldn’t. But I am not nearly as bullish as Jon is considering the matchup. Jacksonville is many things, and most of them bad, but their defense is actually pretty good. Rice will find the going tougher than many might think.

As for Torain, I trusted him in Week 6 and he failed me. I still like him going forward, especially with the matchup this week, but just know that whenever you start a running back for Mike Shanahan you are taking on the risk of that running back getting benched for the hot hand. It’s just how it is. Still, Torain is probably a low-top 20 option this week.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer – Megatron

He will be mad after being shut out last week for the first time.  Plus, Atlanta is ATROCIOUS defending the pass (29th in the league for receiving defense).

Calvin Johnson Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 120 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Dwayne Bowe

He’s big, he’s strong, he’s rested, and he’s facing a terrible secondary.  Bowe won’t disappoint his owners in week 7.

Dwayne Bowe Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 130 receiving yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Seven:

• Mike Wallace – He’s a big play machine.
• Greg Jennings – He was left out of the shuffle a little bit last week.  Rodgers will get him involved again.
• Devin Hester – If the Bears run more 7 and 8 man protection schemes, they will have to utilize Hester more because he is one of their only receivers that is explosive enough to beat his man one on one.  Plus, he’s money in the return game.
• Pierre Garcon – His speed and size create matchup problems for the Saints.  Despite a huge drop, he killed them in the Super Bowl and he will do it again this week.

Projected Worst Performer – Mike Thomas

I almost feel bad for the guy.  His team is terrible, his QB is young (and possibly terrible), and he will be facing a tough Baltimore defense on national television.

Mike Thomas Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 4 catches for 30 yards.

Sit Em – Vincent Jackson

A little bit overrated…and facing Darrelle Revis.  Not a good combination.

Vincent Jackson Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 3 catches for 40 yards 

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Seven:

• Larry Fitzgerald – Dick LeBeau will make it his personal mission to ensure that Kolb won’t even have enough time to throw the ball up to Larry.
• Santonio Holmes – Rough week for Sanchez, the Jets’ offensive line, and in consequence, Mr. Holmes.
• Brandon Lloyd – Receivers don’t do much when they switch teams mid-season.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Yes, Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe should both off this week. Solid choices. However, I cannot tell people to sit Larry Fitzgerald. I know the matchup isn’t great and Kevin Kolb is a turd disguised as a franchise QB, but Fitzgerald remains one of the five most talented receivers in football. He can pop for two TDs any week. Play him.

I also am not a big fan of Brandon Lloyd for this week, but I do like him long-term. He is back with Josh McDaniels, and Sam Bradford has been yearning for a true #1 WR, a role that Lloyd can fill. Once Bradford gets healthy and the Rams’ schedule eases up, Lloyd could pay huge fantasy dividends. Buy low, and buy now.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer – Jimmy Graham

He might go for 400 yards against the Colts’ defense.

Jimmy Graham Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 110 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Fred Davis

Look for whoever is playing QB for Washington to check down often and look for Davis on safe, quick passes all day.

Fred Davis Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 8 catches for 95 receiving yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘Em Picks at TE for Week Seven:

• Tony Gonzalez – Matt Ryan will look Tony’s way against the Detroit Defensive Line.
• Greg Olsen – Cam Newton loves him, and he will be one of the only guys that has a good game against the ‘Skins.

Projected Worst Performer – Visanthe Shiancoe

Not a good matchup against Green Bay’s linebackers.

Visanthe Shiancoe Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 2 catches for 20 yards

Sit Em – Dustin Keller

Once again, it’s very hard to choose a TE that will play poorly when most of them seem to be playing so well, but I think Keller and the rest of the Jets’ offense will have a rough game against San Diego.

Dustin Keller Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 4 catches for 50 yards.

Jerod’s thoughts:

It’s very hard to quibble with any of these picks. Jimmy Graham has a ridiculous four straight games with 100 yards receiving or more. That is insane. And despite injuring his coach in Week 6, I’m sure Drew Brees will continue targeting him incessantly this week and beyond. He’s the clear #1 tight end in football right now.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em D/ST

[Editor's note: As always, the D/ST picks are written by Jerod, not Jon.]

Start Em D/ST: Dallas Cowboys

Do you realize the Cowboys D is owned in only 47% of Yahoo leagues? Wow. When was the last time anything associated with the Cowboys was underrated? Folks, you can forget about the porous unit from last year. Rob Ryan has done wonders with this year’s Cowboys. Anchored by the spectacular Demarcus Ware and the emerging Sean Lee, the 2011 Cowboys D is solid. They also have a great matchup in Week 7 against St. Louis. Pick up and start.

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 7:

• The New Orleans Saints defense hasn’t been great this year, but I like a blitz-happy D against the Colts’ Curtis Painter.
• Tim Tebow makes his first start of the season in Week 7. Considering his throwing deficiencies, the Dolphins aren’t a terrible option if the bye week has you desperate.

Sit Em D/ST: Minnesota Vikings

I recommended the Vikings D to a few people last week, thinking they’d have a field day against the Bears’ terrible O-line, but I was proven horribly wrong. So let me state the obvious to make amends: you don’t want to start the Vikings’ D against Aaron Rodgers and the Pack.

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 7:

• The Jets’ D has been shaky this year – don’t let their strong performance against Matt Moore and the Dolphins fool you. Facing Phil Rivers and the Chargers, who are coming off a bye and should have Antonio Gates back, could be trouble for Rex Ryan’s crew.

**********

That’s all we’ve got for you this week folks. Pose your questions in the comment section and we’ll be here all week to answer. Good luck in Week 7!

Don’t miss the rest of our Week 7 Fantasy Football coverage:

• Week 7 Waiver Wire Advice

Also, don’t forget that if your NFL fantasy team is struggling, or you’re just getting bored with the NFL, our friends over at Daily Joust over weekly college fantasy football games with real money prizes at stake. Check them out:

Like I said at the beginning of the season, gone are the days of fantasy rule by the RBs.  Of those 18 players, only 5 are RBs…simply a staggering thought to anyone living in 2006 or before.

Already frustrated with your NFL fantasy team or just up for something new? Check out Daily Joust, where you can enter weekly NFL and fantasy college football tournaments and compete for real cash prizes. (Keep your eyes peeled for our next freeroll tournament with Daily Joust…)

With the rise in scoring, it is getting increasingly easy to predict breakout performances for players…as well as increasingly difficult to predict who will have a bad day.  For instance, this week, I was 17 for 24 on my predictions for guys that I thought would be successful.  On the other hand, I was only 11 for 20 on guys I thought you should sit.  It’s just so difficult to predict who will play poorly when everyone is putting up record numbers.

Nevertheless, Jerod and I stand here undeterred in our predictions (as did Andy Bottoms in his Waiver Wire Pickups column).  Let’s quickly recap those picks from last week before moving on to Week Six.

Week Five Recap

• Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Best Player/Start Em/Other Guys I Liked - (Hits:  Top 12 for QBs/TEs and Top 30 for RBs/WRs)
• Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Worst Player/Sit Em/Other Guys I Didn’t Like - (Hits:  13th or worse for QBs/TEs and 31st or worse for RBs/WRs)
• Quick Note:  The following players got injured and have been removed from the grading scale for fairness: Joseph Addai, Mike Tolbert, and Rashard Mendenhall.

Overall: 29 for 44 (66%)

Best Player Predictions: 4 for 4

• Hits: Michael Vick, Maurice Jones-Drew, Calvin Johnson, and Jermaine Gresham.

Start Em Predictions: 4 for 4

• Hits: Philip Rivers, Deion Branch, Pierre Garcon, and Brandon Pettigrew.
• Misses: None

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 10 for 16

• Hits: Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Curtis Painter, Darren Sproles, Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks, AJ Green, Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham, and Owen Daniels.
• Misses: Mark Sanchez, LeGarrette Blount, LaDainian Tomlinson, Devery Henderson, Dallas Clark, and Scott Chandler.

Worst Player Predictions: 1 for 3

• Hits: David Nelson
• Misses: Cam Newton and Heath Miller.

Sit Em Predictions: 1 for 3

• Hits: Tom Brady
• Misses: Michael Turner and Vernon Davis.

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 9 for 14

• Hits: Donovan McNabb, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, James Starks, Matt Forte, Wes Welker (Special exception…I said it would be a bad game FOR HIM and it was), Jacoby Jones, Jeff King, and Jeremy Shockey.
• Misses: Ben Roethlisberger, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Shonn Greene, Victor Cruz, Steve Smith.

Onto this week.

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em Sit Em

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 6:

• Denver
• Kansas City
• Seattle
• Tennessee
• Arizona
• San Diego

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Quarterbacks 

Projected Best Performer – Tom Brady

He’s the best fantasy QB there is right now…and he’s playing against Dallas.  The Pats might score 60 points.

Tom Brady Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 420 passing yards, 4 TDs

Start Em – Tony Romo

Last week, I predicted that Mark Sanchez would have a big day against New England’s banged up secondary that was already below average.  Well, my reasoning was right, but I forgot one thing – that Mark Sanchez is awful.  Don’t worry, the oft-maligned Tony Romo should put up great numbers this week, especially considering both Miles Austin and Dez Bryant should be fully healed.

Tony Romo Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 380 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other Start ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Six:

• Ben Roethlisberger – We finally saw the Big Ben I thought we would see all season last week.  He should have another big game against Jacksonville.
• Josh Freeman – Bounceback game against the Saints at home.
• Curtis Painter – I’m all in on Curtis Painter…and he’s facing another decent matchup against Cincinnati.
• Michael Vick – If he doesn’t play well this week…well…um…yeah.

Projected Worst Performer – Miami’s QB

Let me just put it this way: in the pre-season, Dolphins’ fans were chanting the name of a QB in Denver who threw for 30 yards in the first half this week before being benched in favor of Tim Tebow.  Don’t expect much from Miami QBs for the rest of the year…especially against the Jets.

Dolphins’ QBs’ Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 180 Passing Yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs

Sit Em – Ryan Fitzpatrick

I think this will be a weird game for the Bills.  I think it’s going to be a little bit of a trap game (not unlike Cincinnati a few weeks ago), and the Giants will be looking to respond from their poor performance against Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst.  Fitzpatrick won’t play AWFUL…but there should be plenty of better options in Week 6.

Ryan Fitzpatrick Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 240 yards, 1 TDs, 1 INT

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Six:

• Matt Schaub – Not against a Ravens’ team coming off of a bye.
• Alex Smith – I think the Lions and 49ers will face off in a defensive struggle.  Plus, he’s been surprisingly very good against the blitz this year, but the Lions don’t have to blitz to bring pressure.
• Sam Bradford – Sophomore slump…mixed with the Packers’ defense.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I agree on Romo. The Cowboys are coming off of their bye, have their receivers healthy, and I’m sure are itching to put the Detroit debacle behind them. Plus they get the Patriots a week after they played a major rival. I actually think the Cowboys are a sneaky upset pick in this game, and for that to happen Good Romo must be on display.

Also, I don’t think Jon should get any credit for telling you that whoever plays QB for Miami (Matt Moore, at least to start) will be awful.

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Running Backs 

Projected Best Performer – Ray Rice

He’s one of the best in the business…and he’s coming off a bye, facing an average run defense missing their best linemen.  Rice could run wild against the Texans.

Ray Rice Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 150 Rushing Yards, 1 TD; 60 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Start Em – Peyton Hillis

As you can see, I like guys that are coming off a bye this week, but Hillis should be fully healthy, and facing an Oakland team that could very well be emotionally and physically spent after the draining week that they just completed.  Look for the Big White Avalanche to run a lot of people over this week.

Peyton Hillis Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 140 yards, 2 TDs

Other Start ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Six:

• Michael Turner – Maybe one of these weeks, Atlanta will get back to their roots and actually start running the ball.  Nice matchup against Carolina.
• DeAngelo Williams – I think he has finally shaken off the offseason rust, and should have a nice game against a banged up Atlanta line.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis – He’s looked great in back to back weeks, and the Pats are trying to prove that they have some sort of running game.  Nice matchup against Dallas as well.
• Adrian Peterson – Always…I know…but should have a nice game against Chicago.

Projected Worst Performer – Jahvid Best

I don’t know if he’s not that good*, or if Detroit just doesn’t feel like running the ball when they can throw it up to the cheat-code every single play.  Either way, the San Francisco defense is great, and Best won’t be a big factor unless he can break free on a few screens.

*As I’m writing this, Best runs for an 88 yard TD against Chicago proving that once again, I’m an idiot.  My counter?  Take that one run out and what has he done tonight?!? And the matchup still stinks.

Jahvid Best Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 30 Rushing Yards, 30 Receiving Yards

Sit Em – Arian Foster

I know he’s really good, but the Ravens are allowing less than 75 yards a game on the ground AND are coming off a bye.  A lot of you might have a gut feeling that says to play Foster, and that’s fine.  But my gut is telling me that he will be bottled up early and often this week.

Arian Foster Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 60 total yards

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Six:

• Tim Hightower – He’s going to start getting fewer and fewer touches as the year goes on.
• Jonathan Stewart – Look for his production to diminish as his teammate’s goes up.
• Any Saints’ RB not named Darren Sproles – Just say no to them.  They hardly run the ball, and Sproles is the only guy that Brees really trusts on a consistent basis.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I cannot recommend that anyone sit in Arian Foster. In fact, I’ll say this: whoever is starting at RB for Houston is a must-start player until the Texans RBs put up two straight dud weeks. Even if the Ravens bottle up Foster between the tackles, which is in fact likely, he is a terrific receiver as he showed against Oakland.

And I would not start Peyton Hillis as anything other than a flex. Even at flex I’d be nervous. Hillis has been losing carries to Montario Hardesty, and the hard-line stance he is taking about his contract (which he needs to do for his own sake) is not endearing him to anyone on the new coaching staff I wouldn’t imagine. Look for Hardesty to continue siphoning carries, which kills Hillis’ value.

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Wide Receivers 

Projected Best Performer – Megatron

Just pencil him in every week.

Calvin Johnson Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 120 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Dez Bryant

I think that Bryant and Austin will both have big days against the New England secondary, but Bryant is starting to become Romo’s go to guy in the red zone.  He’s big, athletic, and has great hands.  He should take advantage of mismatches all game.

Dez Bryant Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 95 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Other Start ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Six:

• Mike Wallace – We finally saw the Big Ben I thought we would see all season last week.  Wallace will be benefactor #1.
• Wes Welker – Free points.
• Percy Harvin – He’s quietly having a very solid year for Minnesota despite all of the problems.  I bet you didn’t realize that he’s ranked in the Top 25 of all WRs, thanks in large part to his return skills.  He should get free often against a mediocre Chicago secondary.
• Jeremy Maclin – He’s been quiet for a few weeks, and I think he’s due for a big game against the Redskins.

Projected Worst Performer – Mike Thomas

Bad day for Jacksonville…just like every other day for their fans.

Mike Thomas Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 3 catches for 28 yards

Sit Em – Stevie Johnson

Like I said earlier, I think the Bills will falter a little bit this week, and Stevie J will have a tough game, along with the rest of their offense that isn’t named Fred Jackson

Stevie Johnson Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 5 catches for 55 yards.

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Six:

• Julio Jones – He’s Roy Williams 2.0.  Or maybe Michael Crabtree 2.0.  Either way, it’s not good.
• Ted Ginn Jr. – Ginn is also having a better year than people realize, as he’s ranked the 30th overall WR.  However, I think it will be a defensive struggle against Detroit.  Bad day for Alex Smith = bad day for Ginn.
• Randall Cobb – Not many return yards for him this week against a team coming off a bye…he’s only a play in VERY deep leagues…like, I’m talking 20 team leagues.

Jerod’s thoughts:
First off, from here on out let’s just call the “Projected Best Performer” at WR the “Calvin Johnson Award”. Then you can stop taking the easy answer and be forced to pick who you think will be the 2nd best performer at WR.

As for Percy Harvin, yes he is very quietly having that solid year you alluded to, as in one reception for 11 yards last week. He only has 18 catches in five games. He’s not a must start. He’s a flex at best.

I think you are way too hard on Julio Jones. Yes he struggled in Week 5, but he’d had 100+ yards each of the previous two weeks. He’s already better than Roy Williams ever was, and Julio Jones through five weeks a handful of preseason games has probably already participated in more practices than Michael Crabtree has in his career.

Also, never mention Ted Ginn Jr. in a Start/Sit column again. It hurts my stomach to laugh that hard.

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Tight Ends 

Projected Best Performer – Aaron Hernandez

He’s back, and he would have had a MONSTER game last week if he could have completely shaken off the rust.  He’s the number one TE in the game in my opinion, and he should have a great game against Dallas

Aaron Hernandez Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 150 receiving yards, 1 TD

Start Em – Benjamin Watson

The Raiders gave up a ton of points to BOTH of Houston’s Tight Ends last week.  Watson is a good player, and should have a solid game as the Browns look to rebound after their bye.

Benjamin Watson Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 8 catches for 120 yards, 1 TD

Other Guys I Like:

• Jimmy Graham – He’s unbelievable.
• Dallas Clark – He has to break out eventually, right?
• Jason Witten – Big game for all of Dallas’ receivers against New England

Projected Worst Performer – Scott Chandler

I’ve missed on him every single week.  All of you should probably trade for him now.

Scott Chandler Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 3 catches for 15 yards

Sit Em – Jermichael Finley

I don’t love this pick at all…but I have to pick a guy in the top 12 to have a bad day and he’s my choice.  Rodgers has been spreading the ball out a lot, and it’s possible that Finley gets overlooked for a week or two.  It’s also possible that he catches three TDs like he did against Chicago a few weeks back…but like I said, of all the top TEs, I think he’s the riskiest play at this point.

Jermichael Finley Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 2 catches for 25 yards

Jerod’s thoughts:

Jon, you need to make up your mind. I distinctly remember you saying that Rob Gronkowski was the top tight end in the game before. Now you’re picking his teammate who is still getting back into the groove off of his injury? And what about Jimmy Graham? Yes, is absolutely unbelievable! He has three straight 100 yards, has the love and trust of one of the NFL’s most accurate passers, and has no other tight ends to compete for targets. Jimmy Graham is #1!

As for Finley, I’d never sit him (unless I had Graham, Gronk, Hernandez, or Witten), but the fact that he dropped a few passes Sunday night won’t help him out any either. He’s still a stud though, so I just want people to make sure they have a great alternate option if they are going to sit him.

And now, back by popular demand…

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Defense/Special Teams

[Editor's note: These D/ST picks are all done by Jerod.]

Start Em Defense: New York Jets

They are playing the Miami Dolphins, are getting desperate for a win, and their pride has been challenged. What else really needs to be said?

Other Start ‘Em D/ST Picks for Week Six:

• Pittsburgh Steelers – they got back on track last week and get to face Blaine Gabbert and the one dimensional Jags this week. Gotta love it.
• Green Bay Packers – their secondary has been suspect this year, but they get to face a St. Louis team in Week Six that, while coming off a bye, hasn’t been able to get into any rhythm at all. Also, Clay Matthews will feast on Sam Bradford unless St. Louis’ O-Line really improves.
• San Francisco 49ers – this defense is for real folks; not only do they stop the run, but the secondary is opportunistic. Yes the Detroit offense is explosive, but the 49ers are going to give them all they can handle.

Sit Em Defense: Washington Redskins

The ‘Skins D has been outstanding this year, and they are coming off a bye, and they are facing a reeling 1-4 team that cannot seem to stop turning the ball over. So why am I telling you to sit them? Call it a hunch. Andy Reid is still one of the best offensive coaches on the planet, and the Eagles have explosive talent all over the field. Remember, they may be losing but they’re scoring plenty of points while they do it. Plus, need I remind you what Michael Vick did to Washington last year? The Eagles are 1-4 and really have their backs up against the wall. I expect them to play their best football this week, and that makes them very, very dangerous.

Other Sit ‘EM D/ST Picks for Week Six:

• New York Giants – don’t let their reputation fool you, this is not a top defense anymore, and we know how explosive Buffalo can be.
• Chicago Bears – they are coming off a disappointing, demoralizing Monday night loss and face their nemesis Adrian Peterson, who is in beast mode right now.
• Dallas and New England – this game will be a shootout; stay away from both.

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Okay everyone, there is your Start Em, Sit Em for Week 6. The comment section awaits your questions. Let’s all get some Ws this week.

I realize Cowboys fans are frustrated with Tony Romo for making a few bone-headed decisions yesterday that allowed the Detroit Lions back into the game, but I really cannot fathom any excuse for a grown man to decide he should teach his son to burn Romo’s jersey in retaliation.

Watch the video, which I just saw over at Black Sports Online courtesy of Robert Littal, and then let’s talk about it.

I tend to think that jersey burning of any kind is pretty stupid and pointless. For example, though I was disappointed myself that LeBron left Cleveland, I thought that Cavs fans burning his jersey – and thus disrespecting all of the things LeBron did do in Cleveland – was beyond ridiculous.

But for a Cowboys fan to burn the jersey of one of the five best quarterbacks in franchise history? There is just zero reason or rationalization for it.

And to set that kind of example for your son? Really? I suppose being a single guy with no kids, I have no basis for judging how other people raise their kids, so feel free to criticize me for discussing a topic for which I have no perspective. But you can be damn sure when when I do have kids, I’ll try really hard to instill a little more respect and perspective in them than this.

In the video, jackwagon dad says: “Tony, I’m sorry. But we just had to do this. The time has come.”

Yes, you had to do this.

You had to burn the jersey of a guy who played with cracked ribs so you could experience the thrill of victory. You had to set fire to the jersey of a guy who you should hold up to your son as an example of perseverance and self-belief. You had to light fire to the jersey of a guy who has never been in trouble, always displays respect for the game and sportsmanship, and who never shirks responsibility when he screws up.

Yes, you had to burn that guy’s jersey…with your young son who doesn’t know any better and isn’t in a position to make up his own mind about such things yet (but who will now be predisposed to such infantile acts of fan lunacy).

Forgive my language here, but give me a fucking break. Seriously.

As Rob points out in his article, “fan” is short for “fanatic”. I get that. We all do. And I know that I’m not always the most objective when it comes to the teams I love. But for goodness sakes have some perspective.

Just from a football sense, the vitriol tossed at Tony Romo is ridiculous. Sure, he does stupid things sometimes, and deserves criticism for them, but would you rather go back to the Chad Hutchinson/Drew Henson/Quincy Carter/et al days? If you’re going to lambaste Romo, at least offer up an alternative that would be 50% as good as he has been.

There are at least 15, and maybe more, franchises that would love to have Tony Romo as their QB. For all those in Dallas wishing for a new signal caller, just remember the old adage “Be careful what you wish for…you just might get it.” Life is a hell of a lot better now for Cowboys fans than it was before Romo came along.

And moving beyond football, just think about what you’re doing here: you are burning a replica of another man’s work uniform because you are angry at how he performed his job. How pathetic is that?

Sometimes some of us take sports just a wee bit too seriously and do really dumb things because of it. Exhibit A is the video in the post. Rob summed it up best:

“Cowboys fan need to get a grip, it is just a football game. The whole thing is sick and demented.“

And it’s far from just this guy or Cowboys fans, many of whom are reasonable and even-keeled (even if a bit fair-weather, in general). Any sports fans who lose sight of the fact that ultimately these are actual people playing games, which just happen to be for really, really high stakes, need a reality check.

And Cowboys fans need to lay off Tony Romo. The guy is a good quarterback. He’s erratic, but he’s a good quarterback. And with the right team around him, he can take a team to the Super Bowl. Time will tell if it ever happens, but good luck even having a prayer at getting back to the big game without him.

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Update: I just read Bill Barnwell’s latest “Upon Further Review” article over at Grantland, which did a great job of summing up just how misguided it is to blame all of the Cowboys’ Week 4 woes on Romo:

“The reality is that the Cowboys could easily be 4-0 or 0-4 with a few small breaks going in either direction for them in any of their four games. Romo has been inconsistent, a mix of big plays with some poor decision-making, injury limitations, and communication issues with his receivers. If you truly believe that Romo is holding back the Cowboys and that they lost on Sunday because he blew the game, you’re kidding yourself. He’s carrying them.”