Last night, the 2008 season of the Indianapolis Colts came to a grinding halt in San Diego as Philip Rivers, Darren Sproles, and the Charges upended the Colts in overtime 23-17.
The Colts have been amazingly consistent this decade, with this past season standing out because of its roller-coaster nature. Peyton Manning had to have knee surgery during the preseason, the team stumbled to a 3-4 start, they never found a consistent ground game, dealt with injuries all season long, and somehow racked up nine straight wins, another MVP for Manning, and cruised into the playoffs once again.
After going 3-13 in 1998, the Colts have had only one losing season in the last ten (2001, 6-10). And 2008 marked the team’s sixth straight season of tallying 12 or more wins. Tony Dungy, who took over the Colts from former head coach Jim Mora in 2002, has compiled an 85-28 record in Indianapolis; that’s a winning percentage of greater than 75%.
Wow.
As the 2008 season of the Indianapolis Colts ends, however, there are many questions heading into 2009. The answers to these questions will ultimately provide the answer to overriding question facing the Colts franchise: Can the Colts possibly continue their incredibly consistent year-in, year-out performance?
Let’s run down a few of the most pressing questions:
1 — Will Tony Dungy return as coach?
Tony Dungy has made no secret of the fact that he has considered retirement every year since the Colts won the Super Bowl. As the Colts playoff game against the Chargers approached this past week, speculation about a potential Tony Dungy retirement began swirling again. Dungy has said that we will take at least a week to unwind from the season and see how he feels. If he does decide to retire, the Colts have already named Jim Caldwell the head-coach-in-waiting.
There is no doubt that if Dungy decides to retire, his imprint will still define the Indianapolis Colts in 2009. I have read a few different places that the Colts may just be ready for Tony Dungy to retire, in hopes of avoiding a Favresque Will-He-or-Won’t-He scenario. I don’t really buy that. The Colts have a succession plan already in place, and will move in that direction should Dungy decide it is his time to go. But they will welcome him back with open arms as long as he wants to continue coaching. I hope that he does, and I know that Colts fans everywhere agree.
2 — What will happen with Marvin Harrison?
Mike Florio at Pro Football Talk posted an interesting item earlier today regarding Marvin Harrison’s exorbitant cap number for next season. Currently, that cap number is $13.4 million. If he was the Marvin Harrison of old, one of the best receivers in the NFL, that amount might be palatable. But for the declining version we saw this season, a shell of the dominant receiver Colts fans remember, there is no way the Colts can afford that much for Harrison. By cutting Marvin Harrison, as Florio points out, the Colts could free up $7 million in 2009.
More importantly, at least I think, is will Marvin Harrison even be a free man when the 2009 season comes around? Do not forget that there are still pending charges against Marvin Harrison for a shooting that took place in his hometown of Philadelphia in March of 2008. Colts fans always get mad when I bring this up, and many think this is a closed case simply because the DA’s office in Philly has not yet pushed forward, but make no mistake: this case is not over.
I am keeping an eye on this case, because sources close to the investigation say it could come to a head sometime during the first few months of 2009. Just as the New York GIants face uncertainty with the legal status of Plaxico Burress, the Colts face similar questions with Marvin Harrison; and in the end, these issues could actually make the Colts’ decision regarding Harrison’s cap number quite simple.
3 — What will the Colts do to get under the 2009 salary cap?
Another post by Mike Florio at PFT today goes into a little more detail regarding the effect of Peyton Manning’s monster contract on the Colts’ no-so-good salary cap status heading into 2009. Peyton Manning’s $21.2 million salary cap number for 2009 accounts for 17% of the team’s expected spending of $123 million; and makes Harrison’s cap number seem miniscule in comparison. (Of course, Peyton Manning is still highly productive and playing at an MVP level, while Harrison is nowhere close to being that valuable to the team.)
As Florio points out in the Marvin Harrison post, the Colts are projected to be $2.5 million over the expected $123 million cap for 2009. This is not unexpected, of course, as the Colts’ philosophy is to build their team around highly-paid superstars (Manning, Harrison, Wayne, Freeney, Sanders) and then fill in the gaps with younger players playing closer to the minimum. The drawback to this strategy is the expected reduction of depth, but the Colts proved this season that they were able to develop solid depth even with younger, lesser-paid backups.
Luckily for the Colts, most of their key players are signed through next season. Their free agents after the 2008 season, all unrestricted, are Matt Giordana, Keiwan Ratliff, Dominic Rhodes, Jeff Saturday, and Josh Thomas. You have to think that the Colts will want to resign Saturday, but for how much? He is getting up there in years and has been more prone to injury lately. Dominic Rhodes proved to be a very valuable backup to the oft-injured Joseph Addai. And Keiwan Ratliff and Matt Giordano provide good depth in the secondary.
Oh yeah, and the Colts have to sign their rookies too.
Thus, the Colts will be in dire need of the $7 million they can save by cutting Marvin Harrison, and may have to ask stars like Peyton Manning to take less money in 2009 for the best interest of the team. These monetary concerns, and how the Colts decide to deal with them, will define what the Colts look like in 2009.
4 – The running game
The Colts struggled all season to run the ball effectively. Part of this was due to injuries along the offensive line, as well as nagging injuries that seemed to hinder Joseph Addai all season long. The lack of a consistent running game made life that much more difficult for the Colts offense and Peyton Manning. Manning’s ability to overcome the inconsistent running attack was one reason why he won the MVP; but something tells me he would much rather have the luxury of a dependable running game in 2009.
Obviously, these are only a few of the many questions that the Colts must answer heading in 2009. But they are probably the most important. The first domino will be Tony Dungy, and then we’ll have to see how the rest of them fall from there.
Time to go watch the Dolphins. Have a great Sunday everyone.