Tonight, the 15th ranked Hoosiers travel to their own personal house of horrors, The Breslin Center, to face 17th ranked Michigan State. It is the first Big Ten game for both teams.

Indiana enters the game an unblemished 12-0 while Michigan State is 11-2, having reeled off 11 straight victories after starting 0-2 with losses to North Carolina and Duke.

As always, we will be hosting The Assembly Call IU Postgame Show, which starts as soon as the final buzzer sounds.

The Toms, Izzo and Crean (Photo credit: Kevin Fowler, LansingStateJournal.com)

IU-Michigan State Game Info

• Date: Wednesday, December 28th, 2011
• Tip Time: 7:30 ET (6:30 CT)
• TV: BTN
• Announcers: TBD (according to Peegs’ Gameday page)
• Point Spread: Michigan State -5
• Over-Under: 140
• Postgame Show: The Assembly Call

Indiana is one of three Big Ten teams currently in the top 6 of Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. Michigan State is 14th. Kenpom’s projections for the game have Indiana losing 71-69 with a 43% chance of coming away victorious.

If the Hoosiers are able to find a way to win, it would be their first win in the Breslin Center since Calbert Cheaney was wearing #40. Tonight, he’ll be on the bench watching Cody Zeller wear #40.

Indiana Injuries

Of course the biggest storyline for Indiana is injuries. Coming out of the Hoosiers’ win over UMBC, there were question marks about Will Sheehey, Derek Elston, and Verdell Jones.

Elston should be fine to play, but he will be forced to wear a protective mask due to the nose surgery he had to undergo after taking a stray elbow from Victor Oladipo.

As best I can tell, the latest update on Sheehey and Jones is this from Tom Crean’s recent press conference (via Inside The Hall):

On the team’s health:

“There is really nothing new to report. Will and Verdell stayed back and got some extra treatment before heading out for Christmas and they continue to get better.”

So that’s that. We’ll just have to see who suits up tonight at 6:30.

If I were to guess, I’d say Verdell plays and Sheehey doesn’t, but I am basing that on nothing more than watching Sheehey on the sidelines last week and the lack of any catastrophic news regarding Jones’ injury. I hope they both play, but more importantly I hope they come back 100%, whenever that is.

I know that we all want to get off to a good start in the Big Ten season, and it will be tough to do against Michigan State, Ohio State, and Michigan even at full strength; but even if we go 1-2 or 0-3, it’s not the end of the world. This is a good, mentally tough team that – I think – can overcome a slow Big Ten start and still get to 10, 11, or even more wins. There is no reason to sacrifice the long-term to rush guys back who aren’t fully healed.

I don’t know about you, but I’m ready to go. The nonconference schedule was great, and far more enjoyable than I ever could have imagined, but now it’s time for conference play. The Hoosiers have only won eight games in conference play under Tom Crean, even regressing last year from four wins to three; 12-0 against non-Big Ten teams is nice, but the real season starts now. Hopefully it gets off on the right foot tonight.

IU-Michigan State Postgame Show

As soon as the final buzzer sounds, the postgame show begins. Feel free to listen right here:

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Use this number to call in and provide your thoughts on-air or to listen on your phone.

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IU-Michigan State Chat

Our postgame chat will start late in the 2nd half and continue on throughout the postgame show. We may or may not have a moderator tonight, but feel free to talk amongst yourselves, and the hosts will pop in from time to time to see what the hot topics are.

I’m too old to stay up for the whole thing, but for those of you wishing to check it out, I can offer you two things: 1) a link to the complete schedule of the games and commentators and 2) my thoughts and predictions for each contest.

Washington State at #23 Gonzaga – 12:00 AM EST (ESPN)

The Zags had to come back from a second-half deficit to beat Eastern Washington in their opener.  Gonzaga’s big men were the difference with Robert Sacre and Elias Harris combining for 38 points and 18 rebounds, and both should give the Cougars fits inside.

Gonzaga still needs someone to emerge at the point (see 11 assists and 17 turnovers in the opener), while the backcourt duo of Reggie Moore and Faisal Aden forms the strength of Wazzu. Both players are a little banged up already, so it’s difficult to predict how effective they might be.  The Cougars are picked to finish toward the bottom of the Pac-12, and it’s going to take time for them to find their stride without Klay Thompson around to pace the offense.

• Gonzaga-Washington State Pick: Gonzaga

Northern Iowa at Saint Mary’s – 2:00 AM EST (ESPN)

Both teams come in 1-0, and Northern Iowa’s win at Old Dominion was an impressive way to get their season started.  In fact, the MVC had a few solid performances over the weekend, with Missouri State winning by 23 at Nevada and Evansville knocking off Butler in OT.  The Panthers hit nearly 40 percent from deep but got to the free throw line just seven times.

Meanwhile, the Gaels beat Fresno Pacific by 40, led by a career-high 25 from Rob Jones.  Eight players scored at least six points, and the team tallied 25 assists on 35 made field goals.  Jones will likely lead the team in scoring, but the player to watch is Matthew Dellavedova, one of the nation’s most underrated guards. 

• Northern Iowa-Saint Mary’s Pick: Saint Mary’s

Cal State Northridge at Hawaii – 4:00 AM EST (ESPN)

Cal State Northridge lost their opener to USC and is expected to finish toward the bottom of the Big West, while Hawaii is breaking in a number of new players but is a potential sleeper team in the WAC.  The Rainbow Warriors have a solid frontcourt tandem with Vander Joaquim and Josten Thomas, but guard Zane Johnson should lead them in scoring after averaging nearly 16 points last year and knocking down over 40 percent from deep. 

• Cal State Northride-Hawaii Pick: Hawaii

Drexel at Rider – 6:00 AM EST (ESPN)

The Dragons are one of the preseason favorites to win the Colonial, while Rider got blown out by Robert Morris in their opener before surprisingly testing Pitt in their second contest.  But when the game starts at 6:00 AM, you can throw out the records.

It’s hard to believe this will be Bruiser Flint’s 11th year at the helm for Drexel, and it’s easily one of his most talented teams.  Forward Samme Givens averaged a double-double last season and is a monster on the offensive glass despite his 6-foot-5 frame.  Look for Givens, guard Chris Fouch, and a tenacious Drexel defense to be the difference here.

It’s also worth noting that Andy Katz and Doug Gottlieb will be calling this game.  Here’s hoping Katz makes it through the marathon in a bit better shape than he did a couple years ago, when it looked and sounded like he had been drug behind a truck for its duration. 

• Drexel-Rider Pick: Drexel

Morehead State at College of Charleston – 8:00 AM EST (ESPN)

No offense to this year’s squads, but this game is a year too late now that Kenneth Faried and Andrew Goudelock are gone.  Morehead State got blown out by NC State on Sunday, which means a quick turnaround for this early morning tilt.  Charleston beat Holy Cross by nine in their opener and placed four guys in double figures, led by 18 points from Antwaine Wiggins and a double-double from Trent Wiedeman.

One guy to watch here is freshman Adjehi Baru, who posted 11 points and eight boards in his debut, but 17 turnovers compared to nine assists is a potential red flag.  Perhaps most importantly this is a rare opportunity to inject some Stephen Bardo into your morning routine.  I’ll let you decide whether that is a good thing or not. 

• Morehead State-College of Charleston Pick: College of Charleston

Kent State at West Virginia – 10:00 AM EST (ESPN)

West Virginia held off a tough Oral Roberts team in their opener, but they were thoroughly outrebounded and had 21 turnovers in the process.  Kevin Jones got his senior year off to a good start with 20 points and eight boards, and the Mountaineers got some nice contributions from their freshmen with Aaron Brown, Gary Browne, and Jabarie Hinds combining for 28 points, 12 assists, seven rebounds, and six steals.

Kent State watched rival Akron knock off Mississippi State in the opening week but has yet to play a game of their own.  The Zips bring back four starters from a team that won 25 games last season, led by MAC Player of the Year Justin Greene.  They also boast the reigning Defensive POY and Sixth Man and add Juco All-American Chris Evans to the mix.  The Flashes have players who can pressure the ball and give West Virginia fits on the glass, which makes this my upset special.

Bill Raftery is calling this one, so it’s a great chance for some “early onions!”

• Kent State-West Virginia Pick: Kent State

Belmont at #9 Memphis – 12:00 PM EST (ESPN)

The Bruins nearly pulled off a road win at Duke, but in the process they showed why so many people (including yours truly) are high on them this year.  Their second road trip is a shorter one and gives them another shot to pick up a signature win.

This will be Memphis’ first game of the season, and it will be interesting to see the strides their heralded sophomore class made in the offseason as well as highly-touted freshman Adonis Thomas.  Among a number of matchups to watch here is a point guard showdown between Belmont’s Kerron Johnson and Memphis’ Joe Jackson and a battle inside featuring BU’s Mick Hedgepeth and Scott Saunders and Memphis soph Tarik Black.

Belmont clearly isn’t intimidated to play major programs away from home, and just to show I am firmly on the bandwagon, they’re upset number two.

In other good news, it’s way too early for Jimmy Dykes to pull out any kind of Jimmy’s Jet graphic while calling the game.  Thank God. 

• Belmont-Memphis Pick: Belmont

San Diego State at #12 Baylor – 2:00 PM EST (ESPN)

The Aztecs are in rebuilding mode after losing a ton from last year’s Top Five squad, but they are off to a 3-0 start.  They are led by guards Chase Tapley and Jamaal Franklin, who scored a career-high 31 points off the bench on Sunday.

Baylor is without top returnee Perry Jones as he serves a suspension for improper benefits, but freshman Quincy Miller has stepped up in his absence with 17 points in each of his first two games.  The Bears are absolutely loaded up front, while they are continuing to sort out their backcourt rotation before they get into the meat of their schedule.  Expect at least a couple highlight reel dunks from athletic forward Quincy Acy. 

• San Diego State-Baylor Pick: Baylor

Rhode Island at Texas – 4:00 PM EST (ESPN)

The Rams lost their opener in an overtime shootout with George Mason and are picked to finish in the lower half of the Atlantic 10.  Guard Jamal Wilson went off for 38 points in 41 minutes after scoring just 172 points over his first three seasons at URI, but what will he do for an encore?

The Longhorns blew out Boston in their first game, led by 28 points and eight assists from J’Covan Brown, one of the team’s only returning players.  A couple Texas freshmen to watch are point guard Myck Kabongo, who had seven dimes in his debut, and backcourt mate Julien Lewis, who poured in 18 points in the season-opening victory. 

• Rhode Island-Texas Pick: Texas

Florida International/George Mason at Virginia Tech – 6:00 PM EST (ESPNU)

GMU will be the likely opponent in this matchup and should provide a great test for the Hokies as part of the preseason NIT.  The Patriots have a terrific player in Ryan Pearson, who totaled 28 points and 12 boards in the opener, as well as guards Vertrail Vaughns and Sherrod Wright, both of whom scored 17 points.

Virginia Tech beat ETSU by 11 in their first game, although they played without top guard Errick Green, who sat out with an Achilles injury.  He said he hoped to miss only one game, and the Hokies will need him in this one.  Freshman Dorian Finney-Smith had an impressive debut for the VT with 10 points, 16 rebounds, five assists, and four blocks, so keep an eye on him.  Injuries have limited depth on a team that lost a lot from last season, and Va Tech shot poorly in the opener.  This should be one of the better games of the day.

• FIU/George Mason-Virginia Tech Pick: George Mason

#6 Duke vs. Michigan State – 7:00 PM EST (ESPN)

After facing North Carolina and Duke in their first two games, Michigan State might be looking for a new approach to scheduling.

It’s hard to know how many conclusions can be drawn from Sparty’s opener given the uniqueness of the venue, but I was certainly impressed with their effort on the glass, a staple of some of Tom Izzo’s best teams over the years.  While Draymond Green grabbed 18 rebounds, he also missed 13 shots and had five turnovers, so the Spartans need more from him offensively.  The same can be said of their backcourt tandem of Keith Appling and Brandon Wood, who combined for just 12 points and one assist.

Duke got quite a scare from Belmont before boatracing Presbyterian, which enabled Coach K to tie Bob Knight for the most all-time wins.  Through two games, the signs point toward Mason Plumlee becoming a reliable contributor, and freshman phenom Austin Rivers is already leading the team in scoring.  Seth Curry has been decent at the point, and Ryan Kelly has turned in a couple double-digit scoring efforts.  I’m still not sold on Duke from a defensive standpoint on the outside, but I’m also not sure Michigan State will be able to take full advantage of that.

I think the Spartans can keep it close with toughness and rebounding, but I just don’t see enough reliable scorers from them at this stage of the season. 

• Duke-Michigan State Pick: Duke

Albany/Brown at Syracuse – 7:00 PM EST (ESPN3)

In the interest of space, I’m going to breeze through some of these ESPN3 tilts.  The Orange played nine guys at least 16 minutes in the opener and should win handily over either opponent.  I’m interested to see if soph Dion Waiters can keep up his hot streak after pouring in 14 in the opener.

• Albany/Brown-Syracuse Pick: Syracuse

Rutgers at Miami (FL) – 7:00 PM EST (ESPN3)

I love the intensity of Rutgers coach Mike Rice, but they are relying heavily on younger players, particularly in the backcourt.  The Hurricanes are essentially the exact opposite with a number of talented guards but virtually no one inside thanks in large part to injury.  Consequently, I think Rutgers soph Gilvydas Biruta could give them some trouble inside, but the veteran backcourt of Miami should be the difference. 

• Rutgers-Miami Pick: Miami (FL)

LaSalle at Villanova – 7:00 PM EST (ESPN3)

After going off for 27 points in the opener, I want to see what guard Dominic Cheek does for an encore.  Look for another big game from big man Mouphtaou Yarou as Nova rolls.

• LaSalle-Villanova Pick: Villanova

#10 Florida at #3 Ohio State – 8:00 PM EST (ESPN2)

These two teams won by a combined 71 points in their openers, but there were a few things to take away from those blowouts.

Florida’s quartet of guards was as advertised, scoring 62 points (including 11 made three-pointers) with 12 assists and just one turnover.  Patric Young logged a double-double inside to complement their strong outside game, but he will obviously have his hands full with Jared Sullinger.

Sullinger picked up right where he left off with 19 points, nine rebounds, and three blocks.  He made 10 free throws and even knocked down a three-pointer.  William Buford, Aaron Craft, and DeShaun Thomas were solid as expected, but Lenzelle Smith also played well.  He posted eight points, seven rebounds, and two steals in just 20 minutes, so I am interested to see if he can replicate that against tougher competition.

This should be one of the day’s most competitive games and your first chance to catch Dan Dakich on the mic this season. 

• Florida-Ohio State Pick: Ohio State

Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Oklahoma State – 8:00 PM EST (ESPN3)

Let’s be honest, with the other games here you probably aren’t tuning in to this one.  But if you do, be sure to check out Oklahoma State’s LeBryan Nash, who scored 13 points in his debut and should be one of the nation’s top freshmen. 

• Arkansas-Pine Bluff-Oklahoma State Pick: Oklahoma State

#2 Kentucky vs. #13 Kansas – 9:00 PM EST (ESPN)

This will be the first chance to get a look at this year’s crop of Kentucky freshmen on national TV.

The Cats beat Marist by 50 in their first game, and first-year phenom Anthony Davis got his college career off to an impressive start with 23 points, 10 rebounds, and five blocks.  The other three UK freshmen all scored at least 14 points, and soph Doron Lamb dished out eight assists.  I didn’t even mention preseason SEC Player of the Year Terrence Jones, who along with Davis will be charged with defending Kansas forward Thomas Robinson, who posted a double-double in KU’s opener.

The Jayhawks assisted on 30 of 41 made baskets, and deft passing will be critical if Kansas wants to bridge the talent and depth gap between these teams.  I’ll also be watching the leadership of Tyshawn Taylor and whether Travis Releford can continue his emergence after spending his first few seasons on the bench.

Brace yourself for Dickie V in this one, although is anyone else surprised he isn’t calling the game in which Coach K can earn his record-breaking win? 

• Kentucky-Kansas Pick: Kentucky

Austin Peay at #24 California – 10:00 PM EST (ESPN2)

The Governors come in 0-1 after losing by nine to Middle Tennessee State.  The guy to watch for them is TyShwan Edmondson who went for 20 points in the opener and averaged over 17 points a year ago.

The Bears feature a terrific backcourt duo in Allen Crabbe and Jorge Gutierrez.  Through two games, Crabbe has 45 points and has drained 9-of-17 from deep.  He’s one of the nation’s best emerging scorers, and he may well battle it out with Gutierrez for Pac-12 Player of the Year honors.  Gutierrez is one of my favorite players to watch and does a little of everything for this team, as evidenced by his 26 points, 13 rebounds, and 13 assists in the two Cal victories.  The combination of Crabbe and Gutierrez might be enough in this game, but the Bears really need other players to step up and be consistent contributors if they intend to challenge for the Pac-12 title.

Dave Flemming and Shawn Farnham will be calling their second game of the marathon after having called the Northern Iowa-Saint Mary’s tilt earlier in the day. 

• Austin Peay-California Pick: Cal

Colorado State/SMU at Stanford – 11:00 PM EST (ESPNU)

The Cardinal blew out Central Arkansas in their opener and should win handily over Fresno State on Monday.  Freshman Chasson Randle got his career off to a good start with 15 points, six rebounds, and four assists, while fellow guard Aaron Bright hit four out of five from deep.  Stanford also has Josh Owens inside, which should be enough to get past either potential opponent.  If SMU can beat Colorado State though, Owens may have his hands full inside with Robert Nyakundi.

• Colorado State/SMU-Stanford Pick: Stanford

Enjoy the games everyone.  College hoops is officially back!

**********

Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

That’s a rant for another day, but a quick look shows that the conference lost three first team All-Conference performers, eight of its top 12 scorers (including the top three), six of its top 10 rebounders, and its top two assist men.

Still, the league will be bolstered by the unexpected return of Jared Sullinger and may well boast the nation’s top point guard in Jordan Taylor.  Throw in do-it-all forward Draymond Green, the return of Robbie Hummel, and three or four Top 25 recruiting classes (depending on which recruiting site you trust), and the Big Ten may not be down quite as much as people think.

Since the conference is my first love despite being the butt of its share of jokes around the style and pace of play, I’m starting in the midwest with an early look at how each team is shaping up.

Keep in mind that there is still time for additional transfers or signings, so this picture is still taking shape.

Illinois

The Illini lost starters Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis, and Mike Tisdale to graduation, and with Jereme Richmond’s questionable decision to remain in the NBA Draft, Bruce Weber returns just two players who averaged over three points.

That duo of juniors Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson will lead a roster comprised largely of a highly touted class of newcomers.  They’ll be helped in the backcourt by Bradley transfer Sam Maniscalco who led the Braves in assists during his first three seasons before an injury limited him to just six games last year.  Freshman Tracy Abrams, who Rivals tabbed as the Big Ten’s best incoming passer and perimeter scorer, should also see time at the point, while fellow frosh Mycheal Henry adds depth on the wing.

The serious question marks are on the interior with sophomore Meyers Leonard the best returning option.  While I expect a jump in production from Leonard due to a steep increase in minutes, freshmen Nnanna Egwu, Mike Shaw, and Ibrahima Djimde will be counted on to contribute immediately.  Chemistry issues led this team to underachieve a year ago, so despite the losses, it could be an addition by subtraction scenario.

Indiana

The good news is that the Hoosiers lost only defensive stopper Jeremiah Rivers and added big man Cody Zeller in Tom Crean’s biggest recruting coup to date.  The bad news is that the returning core of players finished 12-20 last season.

Forward Christian Watford showed significant improvement and was starting to peak when he suffered a broken hand against Michigan State.  Guard Jordan Hulls also asserted himself more offensively and knocked down better than 40 percent of his three-pointers, while Victor Oladipo and Will Sheehey exceeded expectations as freshmen.

However, the fact that the Hoosiers return their top seven scorers and top five rebounders from last year won’t matter if they don’t show significant improvement on the defensive end. In addition to surrendering plenty of wide open shots, the team also fouled at a high rate and had trouble taking care of the basketball.

Stability at the point guard position will be important as Verdell Jones III, who led the team in both assists and turnovers, and the aforementioned Hulls shared duties there a year ago.

Aside from a lack of interior depth, the biggest question mark for IU is the health of guard Maurice Creek who suffered his second knee injury in as many seasons.  Hoosier fans are expecting Crean’s team to take the next step this season, and their progress defensively will ultimately determine their fate.

Iowa

By all accounts, the Hawkeyes overachieved in year one of the Fran McCaffery era.  They knocked off Purdue and Michigan State at home, took Wisconsin and Michigan to OT, and tested the second-ranked Buckeyes.  Another year in McCaffery’s system only helps, as does the return of six of their top seven scorers, including the top three.

Bryce Cartwright excelled at the point over the latter half of the season, finished third in the conference with 5.9 assists per game, and relieved some of the pressure on Matt Gatens.  Throw in solid inside play from the undersized Melsahn Basabe, and there is reason for optimism in Iowa City.

The Hawkeyes add a couple decent recruits in shooting guard Josh Oglesby and small forward Aaron White.  However, their most intriguing signing was 25-year old forward Anthony Hubbard, who averaged better than 20 points and 10 boards for Frederick C.C. last year.  The intrigue comes from the four years Hubbard spent in prison following a robbery arrest.  He should provide them with another scorer as well as a guy not afraid to mix it up on the glass even at 6-foot-5.

This team won’t make the NCAA Tournament, but if they can get anything inside from guys like Andrew Brommer, Devon Archie, or freshman Gabe Olaseni, they won’t be easy to beat.

Michigan

I argued earlier this week that the departure of Darius Morris could cripple a Michigan team that snuck up on people a season ago.  It’s now unclear who will get into the lane and set up teammates for open looks, despite the fact that everyone else is back in maize and blue.

Sophomore Tim Hardaway Jr. came on strong over the second half of the season, scoring in double figures the final 16 games of the year.  He’ll be counted on to shoulder the scoring load with Morris out of the picture. Veterans Stu Douglass and Zack Novak will provide plenty of leadership, and talented freshmen Trey Burke and Carlton Brundidge also enter the backcourt fray.

Big man Jordan Morgan was the beneficiary of many of Morris’ assists, so it will be interesting to see how he performs as a sophomore.  Morgan will need to enhance his arsenal of post moves in order to continue his development into a reliable low post scorer.  Jon Horford’s bloodlines suggest improvement in his second season, which would give Michigan another option down low.

Ultimately Burke will be the X-factor for this team.  If he can slide in and produce at the point, the other pieces are there for John Beilein’s squad to finish in the top third of the Big Ten.

Michigan State

While teams like Iowa and Michigan overachieved last season, the Spartans were unable to live up to their lofty preseason expectations.

Gone are Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers along with recent transfers Chris Allen and Korie Lucious, leaving the Spartans pretty thin in the backcourt.  Keith Appling was relegated largely to a defensive stopper as a freshman, but he’ll be asked to do more this season to pick up the slack.  One of the more unheralded transfers will also be key for Sparty, as former Valparaiso guard Brandon Wood joins the team after scoring 16.7 points per game for the Crusaders last year.

There’s more experience up front with versatile forward Draymond Green and senior Delvon Roe.  Green does a little of everything for this team and has consistently improved his all-around game and skill set from year to year, while knee ailments have limited Roe’s development.  Tom Izzo needs more from Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix, both of whom were highly rated coming out of high school.  Redshirt freshman Russell Byrd can also provide a lift on the perimeter after missing last season due to injury.

A talented recruiting class will have the chance to step in and play extended minutes early.  Forward Branden Dawson is the most talented of the bunch and can play on the wing as well as pound the glass.  Point guard Travis Trice can knock down open threes and could factor into the backcourt rotation immediately if his body can hold up to the rigors of Big Ten basketball.

Outside of Green, there are no sure things for the Spartans, and expectations are probably as low as they have been in recent years in East Lansing.  Expect them to finish in the top half of the conference, but don’t expect them to challenge for the title.

Minnesota

A promising start to the 2010-11 season came unraveled after the transfer of Devoe Joseph and Al Nolen’s foot injury.  Without Nolen, the offense struggled to consistently produce, and fears of a repeat performance are at the forefront of fans’ minds with limited backcourt experience and depth on this year’s roster.

Returnees Austin Hollins and Chip Armelin both scored fewer than five points per game, and while they had some bright spots, neither one is a good fit at the point.  That puts a lot of pressure on juco transfer and former Big West Freshman of the Year Julian Welch who joins the team this season. Freshmen Andre Hollins and Joe Coleman have a chance to earn early minutes at shooting guard as well.

Minnesota’s strength is on the interior led by double-double machine Trevor Mbakwe.  Ralph Sampson III eventually decided to eschew the NBA draft, and Mo Walker is expected to be at full strength after a knee injury cut short his freshman season, both of which should help ease the blow of Colton Iverson’s transfer.  Throw in athletic wing Rodney Williams, and the Gophers look impressive across the frontline.

Last season’s team is proof positive as to how important a strong floor general is, so the overall success of the season rests largely on how well Welch can acclimate himself to the team.

Nebraska

The Huskers made a late push for the NCAA Tournament last season but faltered in the wake of a wild comeback win over Texas.  Their only notable loss was point guard Lance Jeter, who led the team in scoring and assists.

Nebraska does boast six players who averaged at least five points a year ago, and they expect to add LSU transfer Bo Spencer to the mix.  Spencer put up better than 14 points per game with the Tigers in 2009-10, but he’s apparently got some work to do in order to become academically eligible.  While things are reportedly moving in the right direction for Spencer, it’s no sure thing at this point.

There is no shortage of size up front for the huskers with 6-foot-11 Brian Diaz, 6-foot-10 Brandon Ubel, and 6-foot-11 Andre Almeida, all of whom seem well suited for the Big Ten battles down low.

Like so many other teams in the conference, point guard is the biggest question mark.  Brandon Richardson is the top returning option, but freshman Corey Hilliard also has a shot to earn playing time there.  If Spencer is ineligible, there’s really no go-to scorer on the roster despite a glut of juniors and seniors.

Northwestern

Following the graduation of four-year starter Juice Thompson, the Wildcats are also uncertain at the point.  John Shurna is in line for a bounce-back season after suffering from a variety of injuries and ailments last year.  It sounds odd to call it a bounce-back since despite those issues, he still led the team in scoring for a second straight season and shot better than 40 percent from beyond the arc.

Including Shurna, Northwestern returns seven of its top eight scorers, including wing players Drew Crawford and JerShon Cobb.  Crawford has shown flashes but also disappears at times, and Cobb displayed solid potential as a freshman last year.  The fact that neither is really cut out to run the show puts a lot of pressure on incoming freshman Tre Demps. Recruiting descriptions of Demps reference a high basketball IQ and a savvy approach to the game, both of which seem reminiscent of what Thompson provided during his underrated career.

Inside, Luka Mirkovic is back, but there isn’t much depth there.

I feel like a broken record, but point guard play is the key for this team as they look to replace Thompson.

Ohio State

The return of Sullinger along with William Buford and Aaron Craft give the Buckeyes a strong foundation even after the graduation of David Lighty and Jon Diebler.  With all the attention given to Sullinger last season, Buford’s impressive numbers (14.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.9 apg, 44.2 3P%) flew a bit under the radar.

The other returning player to watch is DeShaun Thomas, who averaged 7.5 points despite logging just 14 minutes per game.  His propensity to shoot helped him make up for lost time, but he’ll need to be more selective in an expanded role this year.

Once again, the Buckeyes boast the top recruiting class in the conference led by McDonald’s All-Americans Shannon Scott and Amir Williams.  Scott fits the mold of the talented wing players Thad Matta has had so much success with in recent years, while Williams will provide length and athleticism alongside Sullinger inside.  Throw in a few more talented freshmen like Sam Thompson and LaQuinton Ross, and Ohio State is once again the prohibitive favorite to win the conference.

One of the knocks on Matta’s teams in recent years has been a lack of depth, but that doesn’t appear to be an issue with this year’s squad, which is ranked in the Top Five of most preseason rankings I’ve seen.

Penn State

No team was ravaged more by the departures of seniors than the Nittany Lions, who lost All-Conference guard Talor Battle along with Jeff Brooks, David Jackson, and Andrew Jones.  That leaves point guard Tim Frazier as the leading returning scorer at 6.3 points per game.

No one else on the roster averaged more than three points, and only five players played at all.  So unlike most Big Ten teams, there is stability at the point, but who Frazier will be passing the ball to remains to be seen. Jermaine Marshall should slide into a starting role in the backcourt and had some moments coming off the bench last year.

Up front, redshirt freshman Jon Graham should see time along with sophomore Sasa Borovnjak, who missed last season after tearing his ACL.  Penn State does have a couple big guys among their incoming recruits, but it seems unlikely that either one could step in and play major minutes.  Their top newcomer is small forward Ross Travis, whose versatility will likely land him a spot in the starting lineup.

With so many questions and unknowns, it’s tough to envision the Nittany Lions finishing anywhere but in the cellar.

Purdue

What Penn State lost in quantity, Purdue lost in quality due to the departure of four-year starters JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore.  If you’re looking for a silver lining as a Boiler fan, you do have Robbie Hummel back to serve as the team leader, and you have everyone else back in the fold.

Lewis Jackson played well over the latter half of the season and provides continuity in the backcourt along with sharp shooter Ryne Smith.  D.J. Byrd is an undersized and gritty player up front, but the real void for this team will be down low.

The trio of Patrick Bade, Travis Carroll, and Sandi Marcius hasn’t shown much thus far in their careers, although with Johnson around not much was expected of them.  Freshmen Donnie Hale and Jacob Lawson are a bit undersized but will be asked to contribute at least a little bit inside, particularly on the glass.

After being suspended for the tournament last season, Kelsey Barlow is also expected to return and provides Matt Painter with a lockdown defender.  John Hart is also healthy again, but the guy I am anxious to see is Terone Johnson.  With Moore in the backcourt, Johnson was limited to around 19 minutes per game and wasn’t counted on for scoring.  You know the Boilers will be sound defensively, so if Johnson becomes a double-digit scorer in his second season and someone steps up inside, Purdue could surprise people.

Wisconsin

If history has taught us anything, it’s that you cannot write off Bo Ryan’s Badgers under any circumstances.  So even though they lost two of their top three scorers, including big man Jon Leuer, don’t expect a huge dropoff in Madison.

The biggest reason for optimism is the return of Jordan Taylor, who averaged 18.1 points to go with a ridiculous assist-to-turnover ratio of nearly 4:1.  He makes everyone around him better and enters the season as the early favorite for Big Ten Player of the Year.

Forward Mike Bruesewitz came up big on a few occasions last year and will be asked to play a much larger role as a junior.

Keep an eye on sophomore-to-be Josh Gasser in the backcourt.  He did a little bit of everything for the team as a freshman, and he even messed around and got a triple-double against Northwestern.  Forward Ryan Evans took a step back as a sophomore but should be in line for increased minutes.

The big hole for this team is in the post, but they have a few options to fill the void left by Leuer and Keaton Nankivil.  Junior Jared Berggren has the most experience, but redshirt freshman Evan Anderson, a highly regarded recruit in the 2010 class, will be in the mix as well.  A pair of freshmen, Jarrod Uthoff and Frank Kaminsky, will also factor into the frontcourt equation.  Uthoff has more upside of the two but may need a year to bulk up.

Regardless, the Badgers have made a living in recent years on the “next man up” philosophy, so you’d be hard pressed to bet against Wisconsin finishing in the top three of the league.

Follow me on Twitter for more college hoops thoughts and analysis.

After Wednesday, the Boilers will go as far as seniors E’Twaun Moore and JaJaun Johnson can take them in the Big 10 and NCAA Tournaments, but will then have to fill those gargantuan shoes next season. Indiana, on the other hand, loses only defensive specialist Jeremiah Rivers while adding McDonald’s All-American Cody Zeller to a lineup that will be more experienced and more talented than any IU team since Eric Gordon was wearing the Cream & Crimson. And with Tom Crean already lining up commitments from top in-state recruit after top in-state recruit for the 2012, 2013, and 2014 classes, the balance of power in the Basketball State seems to be shifting back towards Bloomington.

Crean and Purdue head coach Matt Painter recently discussed the relative states of their programs, and as expected MSF was there to capture the entire conversation. It is presented below, verbatim, in photo story format.

If the image above does not load properly, click here to view in a new window.

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Following last season’s unexpected Final Four run, the Spartans were expecting six of their top seven scorers to suit up this year.  They dodged a bullet when Tom Izzo spurned the Cavaliers (who have turned into an even bigger dumpster fire than MSU), and Sparty seemed prime for another deep NCAA run.

But as Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast my friend.”

Now less than a year removed from the second of back-to-back Final Fours, Michigan State has dismissed two players (Chris Allen and Korie Lucious), been run out of the gym by a rebuilding Iowa squad, and are three come-from-behind OT wins away from being 2-9 in the league and mired in a nine-game losing streak.

It seems easy to blame the players, and I’ll admit that the history of offcourt issues involving Allen and Lucious was a potential red flag.  After averaging 18.8 points and 5.6 boards and canning 17-of-34 three-pointers in the Big Dance last year, Durrell Summers seemed to have turned the corner.  However, Summers continues to be enigmatic and often disappears during key stretches, even earning a seat on the bench for lacking enthusiasm. Reigning Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas doesn’t seem fully recovered from the Achilles injury sustained in the last year’s tournament, and the graduation of Raymar Morgan hurt the team far more than expected.

But as Doug Gottlieb argued on a recent podcast, the fact that Tom Izzo has skirted any blame for this is fascinating.  While I think Izzo’s track record of tournament success has earned him a bit of a pass, the performance of recent recruiting classes indicates the area where you can take him to task is player evaluation.

I looked at the past 16 basketball recruits who have suited up during at least one season in East Lansing, which dates back through the incoming class of the 2005-06 season.  According to the Rivals rankings, five of them were three-star recruits, nine earned four stars, and two were tabbed as five-star prospects, so Sparty hasn’t exactly been scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Of those players, only four (Morgan, Summers, Lucas, and Draymond Green) have averaged in double-figures for at least one season.  Four guys (Travis Walton, Lucas, Lucious, and Green) have posted at least three assists per game, and just two players (Morgan and Green) have posted more than six rebounds per contest.

In total, 46 seasons (or parts of seasons) have been played by these 16 recruits.  Of those, there were 11 with double-digit scoring averages, while nearly twice that (20) finished averaging fewer than 4.0 points per game.  There were also 11 “player seasons” with at least three assists per contest, and while Izzo-coached teams are known for pounding the glass, there were just four times where the recruits grabbed more than six boards per game.

For the sake of discussion let’s use those benchmarks (10.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg, or 3.0 apg) to quantify solid performance, which I think we’d all agree are fairly conservative.  Six of the 16 recruits have accounted for all 26 “successes” as defined above.  That means 10 of the 16 players (62.5 percent) have made limited contributions at best.  Given the parity in college basketball and the cutthroat recruiting world, that type of success rate is a recipe for disaster even at a storied program like MSU.

Of the 16 recruits, none have been NBA early entrants, and the Spartans haven’t produced a first-rounder since 2006 when Shannon Brown and Maurice Ager were both taken.  More than that, they’ve had just four total players selected since 2002.  Ironically, that’s the same number of players to transfer out of the 16-player pool.

I’m not saying Michigan State needs to move toward the Kentucky model of filling the roster with one-and-done players as essentially a minor league NBA team, but a program like MSU should be able to attract and develop at least some NBA-caliber talent.  The fact is they haven’t done it for one of two reasons.  Either they can’t identify and target the right players in the first place, or they can’t develop them once they get there.

It’s interesting to see Draymond Green’s name show up so frequently above as a recent success story.  According to Rivals, Green was “just” a three-star recruit but has drastically outperformed more highly-rated frontcourt players like Tom Herzog, Delvon Roe, Derrick Nix, and Garrick Sherman.

The under-performance of those last three names has left the Spartans with virtually no post presence this season, which has been a major factor in their issues on offense.  Roe suffered a knee injury his senior year of high school and has never been able to recapture the explosiveness he showed on the prep level.  Nix and Sherman both came in as four-star recruits but have barely averaged over 20 minutes combined this season.  Nix even left the team briefly earlier this year.

Given the desperate need for more interior scoring, if either one of these guys had shown any flashes, they would be getting minutes.  They’d have to.  The same can be said of freshman Adreian Payne, who came in as a five-star prospect.  He’s playing fewer than nine minutes per game, and in close games he routinely logs less than five.  It’s a scary proposition for the future to see Payne unable to wrestle more minutes away from the likes of Nix and Sherman based on how poorly they have played.

According to Rivals, Izzo and the Spartans have the 16th-rated class for next season as they look to replace Lucas and Summers in what has suddenly become a very thin backcourt.  If the interior players continue to develop slowly, fans in East Lansing might be in for another long season.

So while the likes of Chris Allen and Korie Lucious will be the scapegoats for this season’s shortcomings, those excuses won’t fly if the Spartans struggle again.  The reality is that the addition of guys like Allen and Lucious circles right back to the recruiting process, and it proves that Izzo’s recent misses on the recruiting trail have come home to roost.

As you may have heard, the Super Bowl takes place this weekend. But while that is exciting, it is still only one game. In the meantime, we have 176 Division I College hoops games, and exactly zero of them take place at the same time as the big game, as non-Super Bowl sponsors artfully refer to it in their advertising. So what better time to start scouting for your bracket picks.

Michigan State seems like as good a place to start as any. What a colossal disappointment. This team, three months ago, was almost universally picked as the #2 team in the country, and a prohibitive favorite between their returning talent, returning coach, and postseason track record, to be one of the combatants in the Final 4.

Nine losses (including a 20-point demolition at the hands of Iowa. Yes, Iowa) later, Sparty is a longshot (based on resume and current trends) to do any better than an NIT invite when the brackets are unveiled in 37 days. OUCH.

Could these struggles have anything to do with Izzo flirting with the NBA last summer? I will say that when coaches flirt then don’t leave (see Billy Donovan et al), it often doesn’t go smoothly. I will also say that never in the history of the world has a job coaching a team on a current 22-game losing streak looked like such bliss from a distance.

While we are on the subject of East Lansing, a serious question for a moment. How has Magic Johnson had HIV for 20 years and never developed AIDS? I still remember where I was when I heard that news (some people recall where they were when Kennedy and/or Reagan got shot, I remember sports news and/or moments), and it was an absolute death sentence at the time. Is this something that gives people with HIV everywhere hope, or is Earvin truly Magic? I ask this because I really NEVER hear anyone talk about this. Has AIDS slipped that far beneath the radar? Can someone give me a status update on this please?

Back to our regularly scheduled program, I apologize for the diversion.

While Michigan State has been woeful and underachieved, the single most disappointing team this season is Butler. With all due respect to Gordon Hayward, who was a great college talent (who probably left a year early for the NBA in retrospect), this team was left loaded, with a tremendous inside-outside tandem of Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard — both of whom were good enough to play on the USA Men’s Select Team last summer. In addition, Ronald Nored is a good enough on-ball defender to be in the running for National Defensive Player of the Year. And they are well coached by Brad Stevens, who could have picked from probably 10 jobs last summer, but chose to stay and build at Butler.

But, alas, these mighty Bulldogs are a paltry 6-5 in the solid but not special Horizon League, with nine losses overall. This team is simply way too talented for that. Unlike Michigan State (on paper at least), Butler has zero chance for an at-large, so they absolutely have to win their conference tourney to go dancing this year.

Not sure if it was the uncertainty surrounding Stevens last summer (see Izzo above); the fact that they miss Hayward; the fact that their best players have played in a lot of big games including over the summer and are worn out; or the effect that Super Bowl losers seem to go through when they struggle the year after losing the big game; but this team has underperformed in a huge way this season.

My prediction on Butler: now that the regular season spotlight has dimmed and the pressure is gone, they are going to go into a hostile environment this weekend at first place Cleveland State, a tough minded defensive squad who will be hyped beyond belief for this game which they sure view as a figurative passing of the torch, and they are going to instead torch the hosts. Butler will win this game outright. Take that one to the bank. And thank me later.

While Michigan State, Butler and others have disappointed, there has been no better story this year in college basketball that nobody is talking about than…..DUQUESNE. Talk about a team flying way below the radar. This team is one of only six Division I schools (not including the Ivy League, which is still in the infancy of its conference schedule) that are still undefeated in conference play (the others are Ohio St, Texas, Oakland, Utah St, and the vaunted Chanticleers of Coastal Carolina). And they play in the Atlantic 10, which includes really good teams including Temple, Xavier, and Richmond.

Duquesne has been competitive with the big boys this year as well, almost pulling off wins at Penn St (ask the Big 10 teams how easy that is this year) and against West Virginia. This is a team that could be anywhere from a 7-10 seed, and I would not want to be a fan of the team on the other side of them in either the first or second round. Pretty exciting for a program that has been reeling in recent years from the shooting of five of their players just four years ago. Go Dukes!

When the going gets tough, Larry Drew II gets going. As in leaving. As in transferring. Drew II lost his starting job (rightfully so) a few weeks ago to Kendall Marshall. He has responded by playing well, and the team has been one of the better teams in the country over the past several weeks. But for whatever reason, Drew II decided to walk away with only a year of eligibility left after this one. Strange decision, and very disappointing. I can’t stand the Tar Heels, and I am disappointed!

The ACC, SEC, and Pac 10 are all having down years. And I know some of you don’t agree with this, but the Big 10 is not as great as many thought it would be (including myself) earlier in the year. The bottom line is that there are fewer really good teams from major conferences than ever before. That, in combination with the three additional at-large bids from the expansion to 68 teams, and we could be in position for more mid-major bids than ever before. When you consider the lack of truly great teams in the country as well, we should have a tournament as wide open as ever, with more upsets than usual and more Cinderella schools and players than ever before. Should be a great ride.

Some picks for this weekend.

· Already mentioned this, but Butler will win on the road at Cleveland State, giving the Vikings just their 4th loss of the year

· St. John’s will lose by double digits in Lavin’s homecoming game at UCLA

· Old Dominion will upset Jim Larranaga’s George Mason’s club on the road in Colonial play

· After a heartbreaking loss at home to San Diego St, Colorado State will compound the problem by losing at Wyoming, who is 1-7 to date in Mountain West play

· Will North Carolina be looking ahead to their Wednesday matchup against Duke? Not sure. But it will be very, very close as defensive minded Florida State will give the Heels fits in the Dean Dome. It does not help that Larry Drew allegedly left the team.

· Pittsburgh 27, Green Bay 17. Just think Pittsburgh has better balance offensively. They will be able to draw up some looks that Green Bay will not have seen before (this is what happens when you have a Hall of Fame defensive coordinator). And they have more experience both as players and coaches. Surprised that the Pack are favored. Take the money line. Take Pittsburgh. Enjoy the game.

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The Sports Muse is a regular contributor to Midwest Sports Fans. You can follow him on twitter @TheSportsMuse.

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With the Super Bowl set and the NFL season nearly over, fans will be looking to fill their sports void with college hoops as we press on toward March Madness.  However, with many spending their time calling in Amber Alerts for Reggie Wayne during the fantasy playoffs, or wondering how to earn spare cash as Mark Sanchez’s human Kleenex, NCAA basketball has taken an unfortunate back seat.

Luckily, my Indiana roots have rendered me unable to fall victim to such traps, which is a bad thing for my family but a good thing for those of you looking to start prepping for the Big Dance.  In the coming weeks, I’ll give a crash course in what you may have missed over the first couple months of the season and what to look for as we near the midway point of conference play.

The Big Ten is up first.  You may remember this conference from dreaming up the dumbest division names in the history of organized sport or going 0-5 in New Year’s Day bowls. But the conference does boast some pretty good basketball teams.

Best Team: Ohio State (20-0, 7-0)

After losing do-it-all National Player of the Year Evan Turner, it’s hard to imagine the Buckeyes being improved, but their play certainly suggests it.  Freshman sensation Jared Sullinger is a beast down low with nine double-doubles already, including his most recent 27-point, 16-board masterpiece in a road win at Illinois.  He gives OSU the inside presence they’ve lacked since losing Greg Oden, and Thad Matta has surrounded Sullinger with talented wing players like William Buford, David Lighty, and Jon Diebler.

A thin seven-man rotation leaves some cause for concern, but Matta has shown the ability to work with limited depth in the past.  While I don’t think the undefeated mark of the ’76 Hoosiers is in jeopardy (six of OSU’s final 11 games are against ranked opponents), Ohio State is looking like a lock as a top seed barring a complete collapse.

Biggest Suprise: Purdue (17-3, 6-1)

Despite losing Robbie Hummel to a second ACL tear on the first weekend of practice, fellow seniors JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore have carried the Boilers to a strong start.  Johnson has vaulted himself into the National POY conversation by averaging 20.5 points with eleven 20-point performances and seven double-doubles.  Moore is posting a career best 18.1 points per contest, which helps make up for the fact that no other Boiler averages more than seven.

The team is coming off of its biggest win of the season against Michigan State on Saturday night, but Purdue will be tested with six of their next seven against ranked foes, including home-and-homes against Ohio State and Wisconsin.  How the Boilers handle that stretch will go a long way to determining their seed, which would be around a four if the tournament tipped off today.

Biggest Disappointment: Michigan State (12-7, 4-3)

With nearly everyone back from last season’s Final Four squad, the Spartans were tabbed by many pundits as a National Championship contender, but as Tom Izzo teams have fallen into the habit of doing in recent years, they’ve gotten off to a slow start.  Neutral court losses to Connecticut and Syracuse are explainable, as is a road loss to Duke, but getting manhandled in East Lansing by Texas and falling on the road at Penn State are a little tougher to swallow.

Draymond Green gives them a versatile presence up front, and Kalin Lucas continues to gain strength as he recovers from the Achilles injury he suffered in the tournament last season.  But they struggle to consistently knock down shots, and the enigmatic Durrell Summers has returned in place of the guy who took over games late last year.  Sparty isn’t in danger of missing the tournament (yet), but if Izzo’s squad wants to make another run in March, they’ll need to shake off a series of underachieving performances.

Best of the Rest:

Wisconsin (15-4, 5-2) – As usual, Bo Ryan’s team just keeps on winning.  The Badgers don’t have a bad loss and have arguably the easiest remaining schedule of any if of the league’s top teams.  Jon Leuer and Jordan Taylor give the Badgers a potent inside-outside combo, which should net them around a four seed.

Illinois (14-6, 4-3) – The talent is there for the Illini, but they’ve lost three of their last four games.  Even so, their upcoming slate gives them a chance to get on a roll heading into the stretch run.  The key player may well be freshman Jereme Richmond who has responded to transfer rumors by posting 32 points and 15 boards in his last two contests.

Minnesota (15-4, 4-3) – The Gophers knocked off North Carolina and West Virginia to win the Puerto Rico Tip-Off, but the depth that played a factor in those victories is all but gone after the transfer of Devoe Joseph and injuries to Mo Walker and Al Nolen.  Nolen, the team’s senior point guard, broke his foot in Saturday’s win against Michigan and will likely miss the rest of the season.  Trevor Mbakwe averages a double-double, and Blake Hoffarber may be asked to take on more responsibility with Nolen out.  Yes, Hoffarber is still in school.  No really, I mean it.

Penn State (10-8, 3-4) – Following wins over Michigan State and Illinois, the Nittany Lions lost to Ohio State and Purdue by a total of four points.  A non-conference loss to Maine looms large, but improved play from Jeff Brooks and David Jackson has Penn State in the discussion.

Northwestern (13-6, 3-5) – Even after the abrupt departure of Kevin Coble, the Wildcats remained optimistic they could earn their first NCAA Tournament berth.  So far…um, not so much.  They have no marquee wins and were just dumptrucked by Wisconsin on Sunday, so things look bleak to say the least.

The Rest

Indiana/Iowa/Michigan – These teams are a combined 3-18 in league play.  That seems like enough information.

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* – Jared Sullinger photo credit: Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images North America via Zimbio

Unfortunately, similarly positive vibes haven’t been enjoyed by Tom Izzo’s basketball Spartans this week. Quite the contrary.

First came news this morning that guard Korie Lucious had to undergo knee surgery and will miss 2-6 weeks. This comes during the same offseason when Lucious was pulled over for driving with a BAL of 0.9%. (He plead to a misdemeanor charge of reckless driving.)

Then came this afternoon’s news, which may not end up harming the Spartans on the court, but which is infinitely more disturbing. Two “high profile” Spartan basketball players have been accused, in excruciating detail, of sexual assault.

Thus far, no charges have been filed; and from the looks of it, they may never be filed. It is hard to read the account of the alleged sexual assault by Michigan State basketball players from The Michigan Messenger, however, without thinking that charges should be filed.

Here is an excerpt:

Documents obtained by Michigan Messenger show two high-profile Michigan State University basketball players have been accused of committing sexual assault on campus in August. Despite the allegations, prosecutors have declined to take up the case, and the victim disputes the reasons offered for not bringing charges.

The heavily redacted police report released by Ingham County Prosecutor Stuart Dunnings III alleges the two team members took turns assaulting an unidentified woman for nearly an hour in their Wonders Hall dormitory room late on Aug. 29 and into Aug. 30.

The police report indicates that one of the two players corroborated the victim’s story in his statement to police. Although the MSU Police Department forwarded the report to the prosecutor’s office with a recommendation that the men be charged with Criminal Sexual Conduct 1 — the most serious level of sexual assault under state law — Dunnings has declined to prosecute the case.

In a statement dated Sept. 14 and released on Friday, Dunnings says charging a criminal sexual conduct case “requires the element of force and/or coercion.” He said numerous prosecutors of both genders reviewed the case report and “none could find any of these necessary elements.” The police report and statements by the victim suggest otherwise.

Link: MSU Basketball Players Accused of Sexual Assault

That is just the introduction. The article is lengthy and detailed and certainly worth a read. It will be very interesting to see if anything comes of this. Certainly it is going to be, at a minimum, a distraction for the Spartans and coach Tom Izzo as Midnight Madness nears.

The assault allegations plus Lucious’ offseason trouble both on-court and off-court make you wonder if Izzo is second-guessing not riding off into the college basketball sunset for the challenge of the NBA. He doesn’t strike me as the second-guessing type, but he cannot be excited about this story breaking publicly.

Surely Izzo cannot be surprised though. Any college coach as thorough, intense, and consistently successful as Izzo knows just about everything that goes on with his players, especially something this major. I’ll be intrigued to see how or if he reacts to it publicly.

Despite reports over the past week that Izzo’s decision was imminent, no such decision has been made.

Our good pals at Sparty and Friends are on record as saying that people need to lay off Izzo for taking his time in making the decision (especially idiots who would flippantly make Izzo-Favre comparisons on Twitter.) And Sparty’s right.

Izzo is weighing a lot of important factors right now, not the least of which is whether or not he’d have the luxury (necessity?) of a roster that includes LeBron James. Seeing as how he has one of the best situations in college basketball if he stays put, I think a reasonable mind could understand why Izzo is being meticulous.

We certainly do here at MSF, and that is why we have opened up our pages to Coach Izzo as he weighs this important decision.

The current-Spartan-possible-Cavs coach wanted to blow of some steam by creating a photo diary of his offseason, so of course we let him. The photo diary is below for your enjoyment.

(Tip: It will be more enjoyable if you let this song play in the background.)

Tom Izzo’s Offseason Photo Diary

Unfortunately, my offseason started off a game sooner than I’d hoped when Butler and its screaming student manager beat us in the Final Four.

The truth is that my own personal offseason might have started even sooner had Draymond Green not had the presence of mind to hold me back from attacking the Final Four officials, whose ears I momentarily contemplated taking a biet out of because they were screwing us!

But it’s okay. I’ve gotten over it.

In the days and weeks after that frustrating Final Four in Indianapolis, I had the good fortune of going on some lovely walks on the beach with my wife (who thankfully didn’t take the advice being subliminally given to her by my T-shirt)…

…and partying with my old pal Steve Mariucci.

My wife and Mooch always know how to take the edge off and help me relax after a long season.

I even had time to do fun stuff like perform on stage…

…and frame this picture for my old friend Tom Crean, just to remind him of what a tool he was back when we were coaching under Jud (and how no matter how much he tans or claps, he’ll never harness the Tao of Izzo).

But then it happened, and my offseason got turned on its head. I got the phone call from my old friend Dan Gilbert, the owner of Cleveland Cavaliers.

Unfortunately, the call came during my second theater performance of the offseason. I was playing King Leonidas in the East Lansing Civic Theater’s production of 300. That Gilbert is a feisty one though. As you can see, they interrupted me mid-line to tell me he was one the phone.

I was like, “WTF?” But I took the call anyway.

And boy am I glad he did.

Dan Gilbert was calling to offer me the head coaching job of the Cleveland Cavaliers!

Sure, I’d been offered NBA jobs before, but usually they were with really crappy franchises. This was the Cavs, the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs, run by a guy who loves his Spartan basketball, and, of course, a team that has the 2nd best basketball player on Earth: LeBron James.

(BTW, who is the best basketball player on Earth, you ask? Why, none other than Mateen Cleaves, of course.)

And the Cavs wanted…me! Little ol’ Tommy Izzo, #24, from Iron Mountain.

Oh, and did I mention how much money Dan Gilbert said they would pay me?

$6 million dollars!

That’s actually more than the annual gross domestic product of the state of Michigan nowadays!

So of course I had to really listen and really consider the offer.

I know that people in East Lansing wish that I would just turn it down and get back to whoring myself around the country to beg high school kids to play basketball for us, and I know that Cavs fans just wish I’d make up my mind so they can move on either way…ut it’s not that simple.

You see, I love Michigan State and I especially love the team I have coming back next year, which could win another national title. Everyone who knows me knows how attached I get to these kids.

On the other hand though, I’m sick and tired of recruiting. It sucks. I have to run around for months out of the year begging like this in the living rooms of high school twerps who haven’t done anything but dominate other high school twerps.

So while I understand why Spartan fans want me to not even think about it, you have to understand that someone is telling me that they will pay me $3 million dollars more per year than I’m making now and I can leave recruiting in my rearview mirror.

Are you serious?

Score!

Except, of course, that it’s not that simple, and this is where I need the understanding of Cavs fans.

As you know, LeBron James’ future is completely up in the air. He is a free agent and obviously intends to treat this offseason like the high school twerps I mentioned earlier treat their senior years. LeBron wants to be wined and dined and begged and all of that, but at least he’s won MVP awards and has talent so prodigious that grown men feel perfectly justified groveling at his feet.

Except, Dan Gilbert is asking me to be the Cavs coach and to put my coaching legacy on the line…without knowing what LeBron is going to do.

Let me ask you something Cavs fans: how many of you are withholding ordering season tickets for next year until you find out what LeBron does? Or if you’re not a normal season ticket holder, how many of you would be holding out to see if LeBron is on the team or not?

See, now you can understand my plight.

Because here’s the thing: I can do it. I can coach in the NBA. I know I can. I didn’t rise up from little Iron Mountain to the top of the coaching ranks without being able to accept and overcome challenges.

Some people say I won’t be able to handle not having control, or dealing with the egos in the NBA. Look, I have plenty of experience dealing with petulant, child-like attitudes.

So I can handle the petulant, child-like attitudes of NBA players, okay?

And the other thing to understand is that I study other people who are successful coaching basketball. So I’ve watched Phil Jackson. What, you don’t think I can pull off his Zen-triangle-American-Indian-1960s stuff? Please. I’m The Izzo.

Of course John Calipari and Rick Pitino couldn’t handle the NBA. You think that worries me? Calipari also can’t handle a blue chip recruit without cheating and Rick Pitino can’t handle an after hours dinner without, well, cheating.

I’m not those guys. I’m different. Once again, in case you need a reminder, I’m The Izzo. I can and would win big.

But I’m also a realist. And I know that I need LeBron, which is why I have been trying and trying to get ahold of him. He doesn’t seem to want to return my calls, so I’ve been forced to just scream at the top of my lungs in hopes that he’ll hear me…

…and then decide to scream back.

Yes, hopefully we’ll have better communication if I end up being his coach, but the truth is that it ultimately won’t really matter. LeBron will do his thing, listening to me when it’s convenient for him, and I’ll coach up the other 14 guys with it all hopefully coalescing somehow into a championship. If not, he and I will both be viewed as failures and we’ll go our separate ways.

But it could and would work. I know it would.

If I take the job.

And so, now we’re back where we started. I’m torn between a great job that I already have and a great opportunity that sits out there for the taking. I really appreciate Jerod and Midwest Sports Fans for hosting this photo diary because now I can tap into all eight MSF readers for input.

What do you think I should do?

I don’t promise I’ll take your advice, but who knows? Maybe I’ll need a tie-breaker.

I’ve already talked to Magic, so I’m running out of people to consult.

The only thing I know for sure is that I’m going to be doing this somewhere next year:

You’ll just have to wait a little while longer to find out if it’s going to be for the Spartans or the Cavs.

Update 6/15 8:30 CT: And it looks like I’ll be staying in East Lansing…Spartan for life baby!

My apologies to my good friend Dan Gilbert, but I made Magic happy.

And honestly, when you coach at Michigan State, that’s really all you’re trying to do: make Magic happy. (I swear Magic! I never really wanted to leave!)

Now let’s go win another national title!

Remember, Jud only won one. It’s time for me to get number…

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[Editor's note: For anyone who doesn't "get it", please don't ask me if this really was written about Tom Izzo. Seriously?

I mean, what kind of a stupid question is that?

Of course it was.]

Whether on mainstream ESPN, or internet media outlets, or your local radio shows, the topic that is trending on Twitter - and is sadly overshadowing the NBA Finals – is Tom Izzo, LeBron, and the Cavs.

It was reported first by Brian Windhorst of the Plain Dealer that Izzo is the Cavs’ top choice, but even then things seemed like a long shot. As the weeks passed though, more insiders began shedding light, breaking some news, and getting the story.

Then, came the official announcement from Cavs owner Dan Gilbert and newly announced GM Chris Grant:

Tom izzo and the Cavs have been flirting quite a bit in the past week, especially since the firing of Brown and resigning of Ferry, but today could be the day that it becomes official:

Tom Izzo could be the new head coach of the Cleveland Cavaliers.

But there is always the IF factor…

[Editor's Note/Update: Our friends at Waiting For Next Year were the first ones to report that Tom Izzo had already informed his team that he intended to take the Cavs job. They, of course, took heat for this, but I thought Denny did a great job defending their decision to report this anonymously sourced story.]

It was first reported today in the early morning today by Windhorst, that Tom Izzo and the Cavaliers would have a meeting today to discuss everything Cavs.

Then more insight came in the early morning, as Yahoo! Sports Adrian Wojnarowski reported that today’s meeting is indeed the deciding factor for Izzo, and that the topics to be discussed are the following:

A huge part of the deal is obviously and without question going to have to include the staying of LeBron, right?

Wrong! Sources close to Izzo, say that while LeBron is a savory part of the deal, it is not going to be the deciding factor for Izzo. Sources close say that Izzo has been looking more closesly at what the Cavaliers would do if the star never returned, and how they would revamp the roster for a plan B. While others say that Izzo, and the Cavs both strongly believe that LeBron would return to his Cleveland throne.

But another huge factor, is money.

Plain and simple amigos, money talks in this world, and when Dan Gilbert – whom has attempted to pry Tom Izzo from the MSU faithful since 05 – is offering Izzo a a 5-year, $30 million dollar deal, you’d have to imagine that Tom is strongly considering the deal this time around. There has been word of other perks, such as use to one of Gilbert’s private jets, and a couple others. Also note that Gilbert is a MSU alum, and – as I said – has been trying to pry Izzo from the Spartans since ’05!

So can today’s meeting be enough to bring Izzo to Ohio? It just might.

While as of late Dan Gilbert has been talking to the media, Izzo and his reps, and the others in the Cavs front office, there has been one person that he is primarily trying to get his word out to. Not you, not me, not even Tom Izzo, but…

…LeBron James.

Dan Gilbert has been playing his cards well, and now that he might be closer than ever to bringing in the MSU coach, he might, just might, giving The King one more reason to stay home.

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Tom Izzo photo courtesy: Sparty and Friends

Dan Gilbert photo courtesy: Cleveland.com

But just because Izzo isn’t packing his bags for the West coast doesn’t mean that he won’t pack his bags and leave East Lansing…if his Spartans win the National Championship.

According to sources close to Izzo, the New Jersey Nets have made clandestine overtures too attractive and convincing for Izzo to ignore. And, the source explains, if Izzo wins his second title — on the heels of making the Final Four in six out of his last 12 seasons — he will have little else to prove at the college level and will be ready for a new challenge, among many reasons why he’d leave.

If the Spartans win, it’s a “done deal,” says my source.

Speculation about Izzo’s possible move to the Nets will intensify once a recent statement new Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov gave to Belarus Sports Magazine gains traction in the U.S.

According to the most recent issue of B.S. Magazine, the billionaire has had his sights set on Izzo ever since acquiring the team.

I have given immense study to basketball and what makes successful basketball player and team. Often I have heard about the, what you call it, “izzone” that players credit for good performance. “I was just in the izzone that night,” they say. In the Nets, we want to have this izzone on nightly basis. Money is no concern.

While Prokhorov is careful not to explicitly state his desire to pry the Michigan State coach away from the Breslin Center, not wanting to create a distraction for the coach during the Final Four, the inference is clear.

My source for this story, who did not want to be identified for obvious reasons, has said that the initial contract offer for Izzo is $10 million per year plus perks like unlimited corporate jet use. The source explained that it will not be an easy decision for Izzo because of his Michigan roots and affinity for Michigan State University, but that the money and opportunity simply may be too good to pass up if he can win his second title.

Plus, Izzo knows that the Nets will be actively courting the NBA’s best free agents and will likely get one or two of them. Previous college coaches have failed in the NBA because they often went to terrible teams. The Nets are awful this year but could be turned around immediately with the addition of one or two superstars and a competent coach.

Additionally and on a related note, I was given a tip regarding documents floating around the Nets marketing department that are rather interesting. These documents reveal that work is being done for a remix of a song first recorded by Prokhorov’s Nets co-owner Jay-Z in 2000. The song, called “Izzo (H.O.V.A.)“, would obviously have new relevance and be purportedly be given an eponymous second life as the official theme song of the Nets and their new coach.

The next obvious question for Spartan fans and Big Ten fans is who would take over at Michigan State in the event that Izzo leaves. When I posed this question to my source, he answered almost before I get the question out: Tom Crean. In fact, the ability to hand the job over to Crean would be a motivating factor in Izzo leaving.

Remember, Crean was hired by the Spartans in 1989 as a graduate assistant by Jud Heathcoat based on Izzo’s recommendation. That hire led to this awesome picture:

Once Izzo got the head job in East Lansing in 1995, he immediately hired his tan friend to be one of his assistants and the two built Izzo’s national title team together before Crean left to take the Marquette job.

Now, Crean is coaching at Indiana and mired in a two-season stretch during which he’s gone 16-46 and is already feeling heat from petulant, impatient, unrealistic IU zealots. Izzo apparently feels that Crean is in a no-win situation and would love to help his friend out by turning over Michigan State’s well-oiled machine to Crean. Considering the hand Crean had in getting the program to where it is today , Izzo feels — according to my source — that he owes him and that it provides further impetus and justification to leave for the Nets.

And that’s where this story gets really interesting.

The name I am hearing whispered as Crean’s possible replacement in Bloomington? You’ll think I’m making this up, but it’s Bob Knight.

The university is reportedly ready to offer Knight a blank chank, rename Assembly Hall after him, replace the statue in Showalter fountain with one of Kent Benson boxing out, and give him final say over everything basketball-related, as well as a 50-tolerance policy in place of his previously mandated zero-tolerance policy — meaning he can engage in 50 blowups, assaults, profanity-laced lambastes, etc., before the university will consider action…like how things were in the 80s.

Okay, fine. Indiana isn’t ready to give Knight all of that. I take it back. April Fool’s! Ha, ha. But…for obvious reasons he would be the #1 choice should the Izzo-Crean dominoes fall as described above. And why not? The Indiana fan base has had nothing to feel good about in over two years while reports have circulated ever since he left Texas Tech that Knight still wants to coach. Knight would reportedly want to bring his son Pat with him and then hand the program over after 2-3 years.

We’ll have to wait and see on that one. IU fans shouldn’t get too excited yet as a lot still has to happen for the Red Sweater to be back roaming the IU bench.

Now the question for Michigan State fans is this: knowing that Tom Izzo will probably bolt East Lansing if the Spartans win the title, do you want them to win it all and then have Tom Crean take over next year? Or would you rather the Spartans fall just short, as they did last year, but keep your coach and the expectation of a Final Four once every two years?

Chime in below.

Butler has been one of the most compelling stories of this tournament. They are not a Cinderella, though, as many people have described them; and it is sheer laziness or ignorance if you hear any basketball talking head refer to Butler this way over the course of the next week. Cinderellas do not start out the season ranked #10.

Rather, Butler is a terrific example of how a succession of good coaches, a system built around defense and teamwork, and a tradition of fielding a team with kids from Indiana can still be a recipe for success in college basketball. Now, if the Bulldogs can successfully navigate what will be an immensely challenging two game gauntlet against very good teams and very, very good coaches, they can capture their first ever national title in their own Indianapolis backyard.

Before Butler can even think about a national title though, they must first face a red hot, tournament tested team that is led by a man who would probably be a close to unanimous answer to the question: if your life depended on winning one NCAA Tournament game, who would you want coaching your team? I am referring, of course, to the great Tom Izzo, who will lead his Spartans against Butler on Saturday night.

Here is a quick breakdown of all the info you need to know for Saturday night’s game:

Final Four: West #5 Butler v Midwest #5 Michigan State

• Butler-Michigan State Final 4 Date: Saturday, April 3rd (Title Game on April 5th)
• Butler-Michigan State Final 4 Tip Time: 6:07 ET
• Butler-Michigan State Final 4 TV: CBS
• Butler-Michigan State Spread: Butler -1.5
• Butler-Michigan State Over-Under: 126
• Butler-Michigan State Final 4 Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• ESPN: Butler Bulldogs
• ESPN: Michigan State Spartans
• MSF: Duke-West Virginia Analysis and Prediction
• MSF: 2010 Final Four TV Schedule
• MSF: Final Four History – Past Champions, Runners-Up, Participants
• MSF: History of Final Four in Indianapolis
• StubHub: Butler-Michigan State Final Four Tickets

Before I jump into my analysis and prediction, chime in with yours:

Butler-Michigan State Preview

Next, let’s analyze this Final Four matchup.

[Note: If you followed our NCAA Tournament coverage here at MSF last year, you know that I published previews similar to this one for each game from the Sweet 16 on. Using statistical analysis from the ESPN Bracket Predictor, which is powered by TeamRankings.com, plus my own knowledge an intuition, I went 12-3 picking the 15 games that concluded the 2009 Tournament. The methodology is essentially the same this year; we'll see if the results are. (So far, through Sweet 16 and Elite 8, I'm 8-4.)]

Here is how the numbers break down between Butler and Michigan State:

Butler-Michigan State Analysis and Prediction

Let’s start out by quickly analyzing the numbers above.

This is obviously the first time we’ve had the opportunity to look at two teams seeded the same; hence the 50-50 split in the seed difference category. Butler actually has a nice advantage in their Power Ratings model, which is obviously more a function of their higher scoring margins and 18-0 record during Horizon League play than their strength of schedule, which was 30 spots below Michigan State in the rankings. The Spartans own advantages in the other three categories for a 3-1-1 total advantage.

On offense we have two teams that are very similar. The Spartans and Bulldogs score nearly the same number of points per possession, have almost identical effective field goal percentages, and Michigan State turns the ball on 0.7% of their possessions. There are huge differences, however, in the other two categories. Expectedly, Michigan State owns a significant advantage on the offensive glass, while Butler is one of the most effective teams at getting to the line in America. Overall, it’s a very slim 3-2 advantage for Butler.

Defensively, Butler holds an advantage in three of the five categories as well, and no team has played better defense during the NCAA Tournament than the Bulldogs. Syracuse and Kansas State are two of the most explosive offensive teams in the country, yet Butler controlled the tempo of both games while seriously frustrating both opponents with their lock-down D. Michigan State has an advantage in rebounding and also does not send opponents to the line as much as Butler.

Statistically, if you add up the 15 categories above, it comes out to 7-7-1. An absolute dead heat. Makes sense to me. However, Butler is the 1.5 point favorite, which I was very surprised by. It’s a terrific sign of respect for the Bulldogs that they would be favored against a yearly tournament stalwart like Michigan State, and I would assume that the reasons factored into the 1.5 number include:

1. A perceived home court advantage for Butler, getting to stay home in Indianapolis
2. The continued absence of Michigan State’s purported best play, Kalin Lucas
3. A recognition (and perhaps over compensation) that, hey, this Butler team is pretty damn good!

The third reason is obviously valid. Butler is good. And while I doubt the oddsmakers themselves underestimates the Bulldogs – too much money on the line – they may be expecting bettors to ride the hot team/story. Despite being ranked #10 in the preseason rankings, Butler was a #5 seed after going 18-0 in its conference. How that made sense, I don’t really know. What it showed was the obvious lack of respect still given to the Bulldogs on a national scale. That all changed with their wins over Syracuse and Kansas State.

I am not sure, however, that the first two reasons are all that meaningful.

Yes, I think it’s an advantage for Butler to not have to travel this week, and they will obviously enjoy the loudest cheering of the four teams in Indy this weekend, but it’s not like the atmosphere at Lucas Oil Stadium is going to be like it is at Hinkle. The Final Four, like the Super Bowl, is largely a corporate event, meaning many of the people with the best seats will have no particular rooting interest in the game.

Sure, Butler will have a large contingent of fans, but so will Michigan State, whose fans are Big Ten based and used to traveling to Final Fours…considering this is their sixth time doing it in 12 years. The same goes with the team. If any coach and team is used to tournament travel and not at risk of being overwhelmed or distracted by the moment, the pomp, or the circumstance, it’s the grizzled tournament veterans of Michigan State.

As for the absence of Kalin Lucas, I think Korie Lucious has more than proven himself capable of leading the Spartans to victory. He was terrific at the end of the Maryland game, he played superbly against Northern Iowa, and the Spartans beat Tennessee with Lucious playing well defensively (5 steals) but struggling on offense (2-9 shooting, 5 TOs). Moral of the story: Tom Izzo’s bunch has proven itself tough, resourceful, and capable of winning in a variety of ways; Kalin Lucas’ absence is no longer an issue.

The previous six paragraphs have been my way of saying that I think this game should be a pick ‘em, and when it comes down to determining who will win this game, or any game that I anticipate to be very close, there are five key areas I look at to break a perceived tie: coaching experience, player experience, defense, free throw shooting, and rebounding. Let’s quickly break each area down.

Michigan State-Butler Matchup Analysis: Coaching Experience

This one is pretty much a no-brainer.

Brad Stevens is an excellent coach who has won more games during his first three years at the helm than any other coach in college basketball history. He showed on a national stage against Syracuse and Kansas State that he can go toe-to-toe with some of the best coaches in the business and devise expert game plans that exploit strategic weaknesses. But he’s no Tom Izzo. Not yet. And he’s got a long way to go to get there.

As calm, cool, and poised as Stevens has been during the tournament, he’s never coached in a Final Four before. This is Izzo’s sixth. There is absolutely no way that this is not an advantage for Izzo. There is nothing Stevens can do about it; it just is what it is. This is a big plus on the side of the Spartans.

Advantage: Michigan State

Michigan State-Butler Matchup Analysis: Player Experience

Gordon Hayward, Shelvin Mack, Ronald Nored, and the rest of the Bulldogs have proven that they can rise to the occasion in big spots. We’ve seen it time and time again during this tournament and throughout the season. We do not know, however, how they will respond to the bright lights of the Final Four.

On the other hand, it was just a year ago that we saw exactly how these Spartans reacted to the Final Four.

Despite being big underdogs, Michigan State knocked off UCONN to reach the title game. (I realize they got blasted two days later against UNC, but any team in America would have.) Raymar Morgan was superb in that UCONN game, scoring 18 points, grabbing 9 rebounds, and getting 5 steals. Kore Lucious during one stretch scored 9 straight points for the Spartans. Durrell Summers, Chris Allen, Delvon Roe, and Draymond Green all played big minutes.

Remember, it’s only a 40 minute game. Even if it takes Butler 4-5 minutes to get their “sea legs” playing on the biggest stage of their careers, that could be enough time for Michigan State to jump out to an early lead. In a game expected to be won by a razor thin margin, that could be important.

Advantage: Michigan State

Now, while the two categories above are important, they are far from be all, end all. We’ve seen teams and coaches perform very well during their first Final Four, and Butler’s ability to be in familiar surroundings will help. Still, all else being equal, you’d rather have the coach and team with more experience; and in this game, the “all else being equal” statement is pretty close to true (for evidence, see beginning of this analysis).

Michigan State-Butler Matchup Analysis: Defense

Michigan State teams under Izzo have a well-earned reputation for playing for tough, physical defense. I don’t think this year’s Spartans are as good on defense as last year’s – you can’t lose a guy like Travis Walton without experiencing some drop off on D – but they are still very good defensive as a team.

Butler, however, has proven itself to be outstanding defensively. Led by the lockdown prowess of Nored, Butler has held opponent after opponent in check during the season and during the tournament. The Bulldogs do not have the length or athletic ability of Tennessee, but they make up for it with tenacity, teamwork, and a tremendous ability force difficult shots.

If you have watched Butler’s last two games, you can’t possibly give the defensive advantage to anyone else. (Note: check above. The season defensive stats back me up here too.)

Advantage: Butler

Michigan State-Butler Matchup Analysis: Free Throw Shooting

Another extremely important element that often decides close games is free throw shooting. This one is pretty easy to assess; let’s just look at the percentages: Butler shot 73.9% from the line during the regular season while Michigan State shot 68.8% (and it may be a misleading 68.8%; Lucas took the most free throws on the team and made them at a 77.2% rate, meaning the remaining Spartans are far less than 68.8% shooters from the line based on their season stats). Give the Spartans credit though, as they shot 73.7% and 76.2% from the line during their Sweet 16 and Elite 8 victories.

Michigan State’s experience suggests that they will probably continue to shoot well from the line in the Final Four. Regardless, I trust the team that’s made the significantly higher percentage during the season, and continued to make them during the tournament.

Advantage: Butler

Michigan State-Butler Matchup Analysis: Rebounding

Do I really need to provide explanation here? Is there any team that you give an advantage to over Michigan State when it comes to rebounding? The Spartans have the better rebounding numbers, and while Butler is no rebounding slouch, they need Matt Howard to stay out of foul trouble to compete on the glass versus of the Spartans, which he’s had trouble doing the last few games.

Advantage: Michigan State

So…the statistical breakdown to begin this post was a 7-7-1 tie. The the “Five Components of Winning Big Games” section broke Michigan State’s way 3-2. That makes for a total of 10-9-1 Michigan State in the different areas of analysis used for this matchup, and it confirmed what I suspected when I first starting thinking about who I was going to pick: I’m taking the Spartans.

As I’ve mentioned already in previous posts, I picked Michigan State to lose in the second round. Then I picked them to lose to Northern Iowa. I finally wised up and picked them to beat Tennessee and swore I wouldn’t pick against Tom Izzo again. And the more I think about it, such faith in Izzo is warranted in the absence of an opposing coach or team that demands the same or more based on past success.

Butler is an emerging basketball power, and Brad Stevens is an emerging coach, and they are more than capable of winning…but I want to see it against Tom Izzo and Co. before I believe it.

Regardless of who wins, one thing is for sure: we’re going to be treated to a great game between these two teams on Saturday night. And whoever wins, they are my adopted rooting interested against whichever villain (Duke or Bob Huggins) wins the other game.

Michigan State-Butler Prediction: Michigan State 63 | Butler 61

Michigan State-Butler Spread Pick: Michigan State +1.5

Michigan State-Butler Over-Under Pick: Under 126

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* – Tom Izzo cutting nets photo credit: AllBigTen.com

* – Brad Stevens photo credit: AP via SI.com

* – Tom Izzo spazzing on sidelines photo credit: Golf.com

* – Ronald Nored, Gordon Hayward, and Shelvin Mack photo credit: AP Photo/Duane Burleson via Indy Star

* – Raymar Morgan photo credit: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images via SI.com

Despite being one of two teams to hand the mighty Kentucky Wildcats a loss this season, many people underestimated Bruce Pearl’s club headed into the tournament. I had them getting to the Sweet 16 and losing to Ohio State; Wayne Chism, J.P. Prince and Co. had other ideas and decided to send Evan Turner home early.

In the second Sweet 16 game in the Midwest, Michigan State came out on top after an entertaining, physical battle, setting up  a very interesting Elite 8 matchup.

Let’s take a look at this year’s Midwest Regional Final.

Midwest Regional Final: #6 Tennessee v #5 Michigan State

• Tennessee-Michigan State Date: Sunday, March 28
• Tennessee-Michigan State Tip Time: 2:20 ET
• Tennessee-Michigan State Location: Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, MO
• Tennessee-Michigan State Announcers: Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery
• Tennessee-Michigan State Spread: Tennessee -1
• StubHub: Tennessee-Michigan State Regional Final Tickets
• StubHub: Midwest Regional Final Tickets

Follow the link to view the complete Elite 8 TV schedule or to see our previews for the Butler-Kansas State, Kentucky-West Virginia game, or Baylor-Duke game.

Tennessee-Michigan State Preview

Next, let’s analyze this Elite 8 matchup.

[Note: If you followed our NCAA Tournament coverage here at MSF last year, you know that I published previews similar to this one for each game from the Sweet 16 on. Using statistical analysis from the ESPN Bracket Predictor, which is powered by TeamRankings.com, plus my own knowledge an intuition, I went 12-3 picking the 15 games that concluded the 2009 Tournament. The methodology is essentially the same this year; we'll see if the results are.]

Here is how the numbers break down between Tennessee and Michigan State:

Before I give you my MSU-UT prediction, what do you think?

Tennessee-Michigan State Analysis

If you have Tennessee and Michigan State meeting in the Elite 8 of a bracket that had the tournament’s best team (Kansas) and its best player (Evan Turner) then huge kudos from me. You are either extremely lucky or a prognosticating savant. Either way, you have benefitted from two tournament truths that Tennessee and Michigan State have perpetuated this year:

1. Tom Izzo is the most consistently outstanding tournament coach of the last 15 years in college basketball.
2. Experienced teams with athletic ability, length, and a willingness to defend cause matchup problems for any team. (Oh, and Bruce Pearl can safely be considered underrated for the consistent success he’s brought to a football school.)

I guess when you consider the two points above, the Vols and Spartans being in the Elite 8 isn’t that surprising…oh who am I kidding; it’s surprising. It should also be a hell of a game.

The win odds are close, with Michigan State holding a 3-2 advantage. Offensively the Spartans hold a 4-1 advantage, which includes their 6th ranked offensive rebounding percentage. Defensively the Volunteers hold a 3-2 advantage, including their sterling 19.8% defensive turnover percentage.

I am glossing over the numbers a bit more in this preview because I don’t really know how important they are. We know that Michigan State can rebound, we know that Tennessee can defend, and we know that both of these teams are capable but inconsistent on offense, with Michigan State’s season-long advantage in offensive numbers now seeming dubious with point guard Kalin Lucas out.

So rather than dwell on the stats, I think this is a game where you have to try as best you can to predict emotion, to predict the tangible and intangible influence that fiery guys like Tom Izzo and Bruce Pearl will have on their teams, to predict how a backup point guard will respond to some of the most imposing defense he’s seen all year, to predict…

As you can see, I think this is a hard game to predict.

Let’s talk about Korie Lucious for a minute, because he just may be the unsung hero of the NCAA Tournament so far this year. He gamely stepped in for Lucas against Maryland and hit the game-winning shot. Then he played 39 minutes against a very good Northern Iowa team and produce 10 points, 4 assists, 6 rebounds, and 4 steals. Oh, and he hit one of the biggest shots in the game.

Everyone knows how valuable Kalin Lucas is to Michigan State and there is no question the Spartans would be better equipped to handle Tennessee and any future opponents with him; but I think it’s time to realize that Lucious is more than capable of playing well – and winning – in Lucas’ place.

Of course, making Lucious’ job easier is the bevy of versatile size that Michigan State has at its disposal: Chris Allen, Durrell Summers, Draymond Green, Raymar Morgan, and Delvon Roe are 6’3 or taller with tremendous athletic ability and a wide range of skills.

Come to think of it, this Michigan State team, in many ways, resembles the Volunteer team that they will be opposing. In J.P. Prince, Bobby Maze, Scotty Hopson, Wayne Chism, Brian Williams, et al, Tennessee has their own deep bench of big, explosive, skilled athletes.

The question is: whose athletes will come more ready to play and win?

Michigan State-Tennessee prediction: I made the mistake of doubting Tom Izzo and picking the inconsistent Spartans to lose to Maryland. I then compounded that mistake when given a second chance and picked Northern Iowa to beat Michigan State because of Kalin Lucas’ absence.

Now that the stakes are higher and the opponent is better, am I foolish enough to make that same mistake again? No. No I’m not.

Tennessee is going to harass the hell out of Michigan State’s ball handlers, and the Spartans better be prepared to protect the ball and prevent Tennessee from getting out in transition. We know Michigan State will limit run outs and second chance points because of their rebounding ability, but they have to do better than turning the ball over on 17.2% of their possessions.

If Tennessee wins, it will be because their strength – forcing turnovers on defense – overwhelmed Michigan State’s weakness of turning the ball over.

Last night, without Kalin Lucas, the Spartans turned the ball over just 10 times. Granted, they weren’t facing the athletes Tennessee has, but it was a strong sign that Michigan State is experienced enough and good enough to compensate for Lucas’ absence and to do so without losing ball security.

I ultimately think that this is pick ‘em type game, and the gamblers pretty much agree as evidenced by Tennessee being just a 1-point favorite. The only problem I have with that is I think the oddsmakers gave the extra point to the wrong team.

Games between teams that are virtually equal often come down to coaching. Bruce Pearl has announced himself as one of the nation’s best, most underrated coaches this season and over the last few. Unfortunately for Pearl and the Vols, the coach on the opposing bench may just be the greatest tournament coach of his generation.

Michigan State 72 | Tennessee 71

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* – Bruce Pearl photo credit: John Clay’s Sidelines

* – Tom Izzo photo credit: Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images via ESPN.com

* – Korie Lucious photo credit: Elsa/Getty Images via ESPN.com

Fifteen years and five Final Four appearances later, Izzo is among the top handful coaches in all of America, as well as the most consistently successful Big Ten coach since Bob Knight ruled the roost from the mid-70s through the late 1980s.

Perhaps even more impressive than his wins, his Big Ten titles, or his masterful ability to produce tournament success, however, is Tom Izzo’s ability to be captured candidly on film in hilariously expressive ways.

If you want some actual analysis of Izzo’s career and how it stacks up against his peers, go here. If you want to see the 20 most intense, funny pictures of Tom Izzo on the first 10 pages of a Google Image Search for his name, well here you go.

Note: Click on the thumbnail to enlarge. Then use the arrows to view as slideshow or click the enlarged image to return to page.

[View with PicLens]

Few people expected Izzo and his up and down 09-10 Spartans team to crack the Sweet 16. They did, however, because Earvin Johnson is not the only Spartan who knows how to work NCAA Tournament magic.

Michigan State takes on Northern Iowa in one Midwest regional semifinal game on Friday night. I picked the Northern Iowa to win because the Spartans will be without star point guard Kalin Lucas. I immediately regretted that decision, then regretted it even more when Northern Iowa ended up on the cover of SI this week.

I may very well change my pick  before Friday night.

You know the old Jim Croce song that suggets you “don’t mess around with Jim?” Croce uses analogous reasoning like “you don’t tug on Superman’s cape” and “you don’t spit into the wind” in an effort to get his point across that this Jim fellow is pretty hardcore and is not to be messed with. Well, right up there with those obvious don’ts is “don’t pick against Tom Izzo in the NCAA Tournament.”

He may be short, and he may have a perpetually raspy voice, and he may have a funny last name…but he also may be the best basketball coach in America, and no one is better in March.

Best of luck this weekend Spartans. Keep on making Big Ten fans everywhere proud.

However, they very well may have to do it without the services of point guard Kalin Lucas, who left the game in the first half and may have torn his Achilles’.

Here is the latest injury update on Kalin Lucas, posted on ESPN.com shortly after the Spartans’ game against Maryland ended:

Two-time All-Big Ten player Kalin Lucas was in a walking boot with whatMichigan State coach Tom Izzo says is likely a torn Achilles tendon.

That would make it almost impossible for Lucas to play for Michigan State against Northern Iowa in the Midwest Regional semifinals this week.

…

“It looks like it might be a torn Achilles, to be honest with you,” Izzo said moments after the Spartans advanced thanks to a 3-pointer at the buzzer by Korie Lucious, Lucas’ replacement.

Lucas will have an MRI on Monday to determine the extent of the damage, so Spartan fans can hold out hope that the Achilles is not torn and that Lucas can somehow play. Izzo did say, however, that they were about 85% sure of the prognosis.

What a shame. Kalin Lucas was tremendous during the Spartans’ run to the title game last year, and despite an up and down regular season he had started out very well in this year’s tournament.

Luckily for Michigan State, they do not have to face Kansas and Sherron Collins next week, but Northern Iowa is a superb defensive team that would have caused the turnover-prone Spartans trouble even with Lucas.

I’ll update this post if anything surprisingly positive comes out of Monday’s MRI. As it stands now, it looks like Kore Lucious will need to be ready to step up and fill Lucas’ shoes. If his game-winning shot against Maryland is any indication, he seems more than capable of doing so.

Update: As of Monday morning, still awaiting MRI results, Tom Izzo now says he is “90% sure” that his Spartans will be without Kalin Lucas when they face Northern Iowa in the Sweet 16.

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* – Tom Izzo and Kalin Lucas photo credit: AP Photo/Rajah Bose via Washington Post