NFL Quarterback Power Rankings

No position in the NFL is more highly scrutinized, debated, and discussed than the quarterback. It’s impossible to build a consistent winner without one (and people who follow the Cleveland Browns would tell you that it’s impossible to find one period).

After this weekend’s Packers loss to the Bucs, Aaron Rodgers was a popular topic of conversation on Twitter. I made the comment that he has not shown me that he has the “it” that people always talk about when it comes to QBs. Some agreed and some disagreed, but it got me thinking about where Rodgers falls in relation to today’s crop of QBs.

Thus, I set out to rank the quarterbacks currently holding starting NFL gigs, taking into account their current age and skill level, future potential, past accomplishments, and the general confidence level I would have if that player was the QB of my team.

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Jets-Patriots Preview and Prediction: Can Ryan/Sanchez Beat Belichick/Brady?

The last time the New England Patriots lost at Giants Stadium when playing against the New York Jets was when Vinny Testaverde, Wayne Chrebet, and Curtis Martin were suiting up for the green and white.

Nine years have passed since that dreadful 20-19 defeat on September 11, 2000, and the New York Jets are anxious, eager, and willing to do whatever it takes in their home opener to embarrass the Patriots and advance to a 2-0 record.

Here are is everything you need to know:

New England Patriots (1-0) at New York Jets (1-0)

• Patriots-Jets Date: Sunday, September 20
• Patriots-Jets Time: 1:00
• Patriots-Jets TV Network: CBS
• Patriots-Jets Announcers: Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf
• Patriots-Jets Point Spread: Patriots -5.5
• Patriots-Jets Over-Under: 46.5
• Jerod’s Patriots-Jets Pick: The Jets are going to come after Tom Brady big time, and are coming off of a great defensive performance against Houston. I don’t see the Jets winning, because there is no way I’m picking Mark Sanchez over a Belichick defense and Tom Brady, but I think they can keep it close with New England at home. Patriots-Jets spread pick: Jets +5.5.
• StubHub: Patriots-Jets tickets as low as $12!

Jets-Patriots Preview

Jets head coach Rex Ryan has called all the season ticket holders, admitting he may not be up to Coach Belichick’s standards. He also admitted that he probably does not have a quarterback like Tom Brady nor three Super Bowl rings, but overall wants to win this game… badly!

Numerous Jets players have spoken out publically calling this their “Super Bowl,” as well as admitting they just want to pummel any New England Patriot player that comes in their vicinity.

Believe me, I have never seen this much hype since 2006 when Terrell Owens’ return to Philadelphia as Dallas Cowboy began to escalate that summer; but all this chaos over a week 2 match-up? Seriously?

I still consider this just a regular divisional game for both teams, not a championship.

Let’s be completely honest: Tom Brady looked sloppy and not in sync with any of his receivers this past Monday night. He did, however, pull off a heroic comeback that resembled the original Boston Patriots in their day.

With the absence of Jerod Mayo, and a defense that seems to lack leadership, who knows if we will be ready to watch another stellar performance from rookie Mark Sanchez. Sanchez seemed to stretch Joe Willie Namath’s smile from ear to ear last week as the Jets’ hero watched the young quarterback tally up 272 yards in the air and throw his first career NFL touchdown.

Any chances we could be looking at the next “Broadway Joe”?

Doubt it.

Jets-Patriots Prediction

Look for an explosive and pulverizing effort from this New York Jets defense, as they look to pressure and blitz Tom Brady constantly. As for the New England Patriots, the key to this game is stopping Bart Scott, Kris Jenkins, and the rest of this talented defense from applying the kind of pressure they want to apply.

Tom Brady needs to gain back more confidence in the pocket while at the same time sending a few deep passes to Randy Moss. By stretching the Jets defense through the air, as well as utilizing Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney, and Fred Taylor as the three-headed running attack, the Patriots should be able to thwart what looks to be a very strong New York Jets defense.

This game should end up being close, but not a win for the Jets once the final second ticks away.

Sorry Jets fans, this one belongs to the Patriots!

Prediction: Patriots 30 – Jets 20

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* – Rex Ryan photo credit: AP via Newsday

I’ll Tell You This: Drew Brees and Tom Brady Display Greatness During NFL Kickoff Weekend

[Editor's note: Each week, Big MB's regales us with his post entitled I'll Tell You This, in which he tells us...whatever it is he wants to tell us. Enjoy...and stay tuned for an upcoming appearance by Big MB on the soon-to-be resumed MSF podcast. Big MB and I will be debating this week's Monday night game between the Colts and my first NFL love, the Dolphins.]

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It’s what we have all been waiting for: NFL Kickoff 2009.

After going through football withdrawls, the draft, and preseason, our moment of Glory finally came. And it was good…real good.

In honor of Week 1 I have decided to make this week’s I’ll Tell You This an “NFL Kickoff Special”.

Enjoy.

1. The Boston TD Party

In the first of two Monday Night Football games, Tom Brady stepped onto the field for a regular season game for basically the first time in two years (not counting his less-than-a-quarter stint a year ago before getting hurt) against the Buffalo Bills.

The Bills came out motivated and the Patriot came out flat. With time dwindling down in the final minutes of the 4^th quarter, Brady threw a line drive touchdown to tight end Ben Watson to bring the Bills lead to just 5 with 2:06 to go in the game. Instead of an onside kick, the Patriots chose to kick off deep.

Instead of taking a knee, Leodis McKelvin of the Bills decided to bring the ball out. After breaking a tackle or two, he got hammered and dumped the ball on the ground. The Patriots recovered near the 30 yard line of the Bills, and just a few short plays later Brady hit Watson again, on what seemed to be the exact same play, for another touchdown.

With only 50 seconds remaining, the Bills could not answer, and the Patriots would move to 1-0 on a miracle, or perhaps a follie.

I’ll Tell You This: As you may know about me, I am a die-hard Colts fan, and it pains me to talk about anything that has to do with the success of the New England Patriots.

But as for the Bills’ return man, I have a simple message: you are an idiot.

If you take a knee, your offense will run at least 30 seconds off of the clock, New England will use all of their time outs, and the entire AFC will take a collective breath as they realize that the mighty Patriots are 0-1.

But no.

You had to try to be the hero. Enjoy the practice squad.

The only consolation I can take is that MAYBE, just maybe, the Patriots aren’t the juggernaut that everyone seems to think they will be again.

2. The AFC South

Obviously, I can’t give the Patriots face time without spending a little time on my Colts and their division.

Houston, who has been deemed by many to possibly win the AFC South, came out flat and never caught fire. In their 24-7 loss to the Jets, Steve Slaton was not effective, Matt Schaub was disappointing, and the Jets ran for 150 yards on 49 attempts while protecting their rookie starter, Mark Sanchez.

Tennessee faced off against the defending Super Bowl champs, the Steelers. After an overtime slugfest, Tennessee dropped their battle on an OT field goal by Pittsburgh as the Steelers were victorious 13-10.

In the only divisional match-up, Jacksonville played the Colts.

Manning and Co. would have a rough start with a redzone interception, followed by a mid-field fumble by Joseph Addai.

After failing to convert a 4th and 1 at midfield in the closing minutes of the game, holding a 14-12 lead, the Colts’ defense would take a stand and force Jacksonville into a turnover on downs to hold onto the victory, leaving the Colts as the only team to be 1-0 in possibly the toughest division in football.

I’ll Tell You This: I’m sorry, did I just report that the Colts’ defense won the game? I think I did. And, the Colts now hold their own destiny for the rest of the season in the AFC South.

The AFC, and perhaps the entire NFL, must be asking themselves this: If Manning and his offense can get on track, and they presumably will, how dominant can this team be with a stronger defense, which get even better when vaunted safety Bob Sanders returns?

3. What a “Brees”

Drew Brees torched the Detroit Lions on Sunday completing 26 of 34 passes for 358 yards and 6, yes count them six, touchdowns in the Saints’ 45-27 romp of the cellar dweller Lions.

I’ll Tell You This: Everyone in the league has done nothing but talk about Peyton Manning and Tom Brady for the past 5 or 6 years. Recently talk has swung to Eli Manning, Big Ben, and Aaron Rodgers, who, among others, have been anointed the next line of MVPs of the NFL.

But Drew Brees is the real deal and deserves to be mentioned with the former group, not the latter.

He may even be…possibly…the best quarterback in the NFL right now.

Only time will tell, but I would even hazard to guess that Tom Brady’s 50 TD record is in serious jeopardy. Get over it NFL, I know he is not the most marketable player in the league, but Drew Brees could very well be your best.

4. The Replacements

With Week 1 in the books, several injuries have taken center stage. The most prominent injury is that of Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher. After dislocating his wrist, Urlacher is now done for the season. The Bears immediately looked at signing former Buc Derrick Brooks, but decided on Tim Shaw instead.

The other injury that has swept headlines is the broken ribs of Donovan McNabb. After what seemed to be a late hit in the end zone, McNabb left the game to find out the he had cracked ribs. The Eagles have activated Michael Vick, but since he is unavailable until week three, they have pursued and signed QB Jeff Garcia, and have released WR Hank Baskett to make room on their roster.

I’ll Tell You This: In Chicago, the loss of Urlacher is devastating. Brooks could be a nice player, but he is older and will not run this defense the way the Urlacher did. Who is Tim Shaw again?

In Philly, the stage has now been set for a three-way QB controversy that may very well find itself headlining on Jerry Springer. It’s my guess that things will never be the same in Philly, and I don’t see this situation working itself out.

5. The Great White Hype

In my final story of the week, I am going to do something a little different. I’m going to rant. No story, just a rant. So……

I’ll Tell You This:

I am sick and tired of hearing how awesome two players are. One is in the NFL; the other is a NCAA football player.

First, let me address the player who has already been involved in Heisman talk, True Freshman QB from USC, Matt Barkley.

I watched the Ohio State game. It was a phenomenal game, and USC truly outplayed Ohio State in the 4th quarter to get the W. However, following the end of the game the announcer, as it seems all of Sports Media have been doing, began to talk about Barkley and what a great game he had, and how he was truly a candidate in the Heisman Race.

For the love of God, he completed less than 50% of his passes (15 for 31) for 195 yards and one interception. No Touchdowns. Wow. If this is what it takes to be a Heisman candidate then I hereby nominate myself, and I think that I could possibly contend with those numbers.

My other complaint is focused on Green Bay Packers QB, Aaron Rogers.

His stats from Sunday’s bout with Chicago? He completed 17-28 passes for 184 yards and 1 touchdown. Not that this is a bad performance, but it is FAR from what I would consider an MVP performance, especially given the performance by Drew Brees this week. With the hype surrounding Rodgers this season, I expected more. 

All in all, it was a phenomenal Kick Off, with a lot of exciting games and finishes, and perhaps even a few surprises. Feel free to comment and tell me what your favorite moment of NFL Kick Off weekend was. I’d love to hear it.

Until next week kids…

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You can follow Myles on twitter at www.twitter.com/mylesb3269

* – Tom Brady photo credit: More Than an Electrician

* – Drew Brees photo credit: The Campus Socialite

Monday Night Football: Patriots-Bills Preview and Prediction

Editor’s Note: AJ Kaufman’s weekly MNF coverage on MSF is sponsored by Sadler’s Smokehouse, a producer of premium pit smoked meats that are best described by Sadler’s slogan: Legendary since 1948.

Sadler’s premium meats are perfect for tailgating on Saturday, for grilling out at home on Sunday, or for when you are hosting a group of friends, or even just the family, on Monday night.

With a variety of delicious choices (beef, pork, ribs, turkey, brisket, and more) and availability at grocery stores throughout the U.S., Sadler’s meats are the tasty, convenient choice when you want to watch the big game and eat well while you’re doing it.

• Check out Sadler’s Monday Night Football Recipe of the Week:  Sadler’s Smokehouse Brisket Nachos

And now, on with the preview of this week’s Bills-Patriots matchup on Monday Night Football. You can also view MSF’s preview and prediction for the Chargers-Raiders MNF game on immediately after the Patriots-Bills game.

Monday Night Football Week 1 Preview

Buffalo Bills (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)

Before we dive into analyzing the details of the first Monday Night Football game of 2009, here are the particulars to get you ready for kickoff:

• Bills-Patriots Date: Monday, September 14th
• Bills-Patriots TV & Kickoff Time: 7:00 ET on ESPN
• Bills-Patriots Location: Gillette Stadium in Foxboro
• Bills-Patriots Announcers: Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, and Jon Gruden
• Bills-Patriots Point Spread: NE -10.5
• Bills-Patriots Over-Under: 47.5
• StubHub: Patriots-Bills MNF tickets as low as $95
• StubHub: all 2009 New England Patriots tickets
• StubHub: all 2009 Buffalo Bills tickets
• StubHub: all 2009 NFL tickets

Patriots-Bills Analysis

Trent Edwards and the Bills offense is the big question mark on the shores of Lake Ontario. [Editor's note: We meant Lake Erie. Thanks to the commenter who pointed this out.] Last year, people said that Edwards didn’t have the right personnel around him, but now that they’ve added Terell Owens, does Edwards still have any excuses?

Unfortunately, he probably does, as the new receiver does not solve the Bills’ offensive line issues.

Therefore, Buffalo’s potential season-long question might be — along with the usual questions of T.O. co-existing with his quarterback — will Edwards prosper even with Owens when he still has very little time to throw?

And will Owens “accept” a team that can’t produce consistently on offense?

Oh, and mixed into all this uncertaintly, how will budding star Lee Evans accept being relegated to a secondary role?

To compound that, the team has other self-inflicted hurdles: their offensive coordinator Turk Schoenert was fired during the pre-season; Owens’ toe is nicked up; and, 1,000-yard running back Marshawn Lynch is suspended through the end of September.

So, while the Bills may prove decent as the season moves along, a prime-time game versus Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and a Patriot team juiced up after a playoff-less season is not the ideal opener.

Something that could help out the Bills would be the Patriots missing a key ingredient in their impressive aerial assault. Tom Brady may be back, but he could be without his most reliable possession receiver Wes Welker. The 100-catch man is dealing with a knee injury that is threatening his availability for Monday. 

Obviously the loss of Welker would hurt the Patriots, but did I mention that Tom Brady is back?

Despite its dynastic success this decade led by the Belichick-Brady duo, New England is like any other team at this early stage of the season and has unknowns just like the Bills do. For example, though it’s believed that the very recent loss of Richard Seymour is mitigated by the Pats’ great depth on the defensive line, it surely is not a given that a 2011 first round pick was worth losing a five-time Pro Bowler who is not yet 30.

Of course, Tom Brady’s knee is another major issue, especially in his first real test on Monday night. He looked good in the preseason, but generally quarterbacks coming off knee injuries start slowly (see Palmer, Carson; Manning, Peyton).

Laurence Maroney, injured nearly all of 2008, needs to return to his 2006-2007 form in order to be the top back. If he’s not, however, New England has capable backups in veterans Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris, as well as second-year man BenJarvus Green-Ellis (likely as a goal-line back).

Patriots-Bills Prediction

The Bills only scored ten points combined in their two meetings with New England last season (both losses). It might be semi-tight in the first half, but the talent level between the two teams, plus the home atmosphere on opening night with the national TV audience, will give the Pats a fairly comfortable triumph and cover.

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* – Terrell Owens photo credit: Football Nation Blogs

I’ll Tell You This: Dodgers Looking Strong, Pacman and RichRod Not So Much

[Editor's Note: This is the first of a new weekly series by Big MB called I'll Tell You This. MB loves to tell people things, and especially loves using that phrase when doing so, so this is a match made in sports blogging heaven. Have at it MB.]

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We are just over one week away from NFL kickoff 2009, less that a week from College Football, and coming down the stretch in Major League Baseball. Here are my top 5 stories for this week.

1 – LA Dodgers Make Deals to Solidify Playoff Roster

As the waiver deadline approaches the most active team seems to be the L.A. Dodgers, picking up White Sox slugger Jim Thome and Diamondbacks’ hurler Jon Garland. As of today the Dodgers hold a 5.5 game lead on Colorado, who also made a move trading for White Sox pitcher Jose Contreras.

I’ll tell you this: the Dodgers are putting together a team that will compete with the Yankees in the World Series. There is no doubt in my mind that the Dodgers are the team to beat in the National League, save for maybe (and this is painful for a Cub’s fan to admit) the Cardinals.

2 – A Tale of Two Cities: Minnesota and Philadelphia

Brett Favre and Michael Vick have made their comebacks and the inevitable debates have followed.

In Minnesota, talk of team mutiny was rumored, some sources saying that the locker room was split. These rumors were put to bed quickly, but Viking Nation may see it differently. One Vikings fan was found to have a live goat in her trunk painted purple and gold.

Vick has also been met with equivalent praise and disapproval, with Donovan McNabb going on record saying that Vick’s presence and the style of play-calling involving Vick was “a gimmick” and a distraction from their game plan.

I’ll tell you this: Like it or not, the Vikings became a contender when they signed Favre. However, Vick brings quite the distraction both on and off of the field. It will be interesting to see, but if McNabb is already skeptical about Vick’s role, then that can’t be a good sign for the Eagles.

3 – Trouble in Ann Arbor

In what has been a tumultuous summer of violations in College Football, one last situation has raised its ugly head right before the season’s start.

This week some former and current players accused Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez and his staff of exceeding the NCAA’s practice guidelines and complained that the staff was over-working student athletes beyond the maximum weekly and daily hours limitations. Rodriguez responded with an emotional press conference, completely denying the allegations by saying that they were “miscommunications” and “just not true.”

I’ll Tell You This: The Wolverines went 3-9 last year in Rodriguez’s first year at the helm. While it would not surprise me that these players were over-worked, I think the bigger issue is that, to save his job, Rodriguez has to find a way to bring Michigan back to being one of the premier teams in the NCAA.

4 – Injuries in the NFL Preseason

With the NFL preseason coming to an end, injuries have already begun to raise their ugly heads at big-time positions for teams.

Patriots QB Tom Brady injured his shoulder when Redskins $100 million dollar man Albert Haynesworth crushed him in the second quarter of their game last week. The master of masking issues, Bill Belichick, down-played the injury saying that Brady would be ready for the regular season.

Brett Favre has said that he has a cracked rib, but played in the Vikings’ preseason game against Houston without any protection. Could it be that Favre is preparing an excuse for what might become a disappointing season?

Finally, all of Kansas City stopped breathing for about 24 hours when off-season acquisition QB Matt Cassel went down hard with a knee injury. At first the prognosis was 4-6 weeks, seemingly a finishing blow to KC before the season even started; however, now reports are saying that the MCL strain that Cassel suffered was minor and he would return to the lineup possibly sooner rather that later, maybe even for the season opener.

I’ll Tell You This: Nothing can kill a team’s season faster than an unexpected and unnecessary preseason injury. Hopefully all of the above stay healthy so we can watch as many teams battle it out for the playoffs at full strength as possible. A healthy NFL is a more fan-friendly NFL.

5 – The Return of Pacman

Adam “Pacman” Jones has returned to football. But this time it’s not in the NFL. It’s not even with the upstart AFL, which launches next month. 

No, Pacman Jones is headed to the Canadian Football League. He has signed “in principal” a one year deal with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

I’ll tell you this: Who cares?

Apparently no-one in the NFL is ok with giving Jones yet another chance to prove that he can’t control his personal life, and honestly, I can’t blame them. Jones is just one of those players with all the talent in the world but no self-control. And playing professional sports is a luxury. He can’t control his life, he is a thug, and he is not a role model like we want our athletes of today to be.

Good riddance Pacman. Canada, you can have him.

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You can follow BigMB on twitter by going to www.twitter.com/mylesb3269

* – Jose Contreras and Jim Thome photo credit: by Charles Rex Arbogast – AP via South Side Sox

Tom Brady Shoulder Injury Update: Expects to Play in Season Opener

Doesn’t it seem somewhat oxymoronic to see “Tom Brady” and “injury update” placed next to eachother? If there is one thing we have come to learn about the New England Patriots and injuries, it’s that there are rarely any updates worth listening to.

(And Browns fans, get used to it…it’s how things will be with Mangini in charge.)

But there is at least one source of information that you would have to assume is somewhat credible: the player himself.

If you are like me and expect a big season from Tom Brady in 2009, so much so that you drafted him high in a couple of fantasy leagues this year, you cringed when Brady got flattened by Albert Haynesworth in the Patriots’ recent preseason game against the Redskins. Brady left the game shortly thereafter, although Bill Belichick said that Brady was not removed because of any injury concerns.

Still, worry has lingered in New England and in fantasy football circles about the health of Brady’s shoulder. This morning, on his weekly Boston radio show, Brady did his best to assuage the concerns of Pats fans and Brady fantasy owners.

Follow the links to StubHub for great deals on New England Patriots tickets and all 2009 NFL tickets.

Tom Brady injury update via ProFootballTalk:

“I certainly am expecting to [play],” he said. “A lot of players have bumps and bruises. I’m expecting to play this week if coach lets me. Anyone that plays this game needs to be ready to play at less than 100 percent of perfect.”

As Tom Curran points out, implicit in Brady’s statement is an acknowledgement that he is indeed hurt. We obviously will never know the extent of the injury until we see whether or not it affects him in Week 1 against Buffalo.

For now though, it appears safe to keep Brady penciled into your Week 1 lineups. The risk associated with drafting him however, which was already high considering he still has to prove there will be no lingering effects of the knee injury, did just go up a bit.

It might not be a bad time to float some trade offers, especially if there are any known Brady lovers in your league. Though he has looked good in the preseason, that’s now two injury issues with a guy you need be a star for your team to win. Don’t give him up for nothing, obviously, but it might be prudent to see if someone is willing to give you really good value to take the risk off of your hands.

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* – Tom Brady photo credit: More Than an Electrician

What I Learned From My First Fantasy Football Draft: I Love Tom Brady and Felix Jones

After spending a relaxing week of vacation in the Keys, then spending most of yesterday twirling in the inbox maelstrom that awaited me upon my return, I am officially back. And there is no better way to jump right back into sports and blogging than participating in a fantasy football draft.

Last night was my first draft of many over the next couple of weeks. This morning I am going to regale you with what I hope are educational and enlightening nuggets of knowledge and insight that drove my picks as the draft motored along. 

Let’s get right to it.

First, the league particulars so you have a frame of reference:

• 12-team, non-keeper, H2H, PPR
• Starting roster: 2 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 W/TE, 1 W/R, 2 K, 2 DEF
• Stat notes: 6 pts per passing TD; 1 pt per reception, Return yards counted

And here is my roster, with the draft position (I had the 8th and 15th picks to start) in parentheses:

• QB Tom Brady (1st pick, 8th overall)
• QB Donovan McNabb (3rd, 28th)
• QB Shaun Hill (14th, 145th)
• QB Kerry Collins (18th, 185th)
• RB Frank Gore (2nd, 15th)
• RB Felix Jones (7th, 78th)
• RB LeSean McCoy (10th, 105th)
• RB Darren Sproles (12th, 125th)
• RB Tim Hightower (15th, 158th)
• WR Hines Ward (5th, 48th)
• WR Anthony Gonzalez (6th, 55th)
• WR Torry Holt (8th, 85th)
• WR Steve Smith – NYG (11th, 118th)
• WR Chris Henry (16th, 165th)
• TE Jason Witten (4th, 35th)
• TE Vernon Davis (13th, 138th)
• K Matt Prater (17th, 178th)
• DEF New York Jets (9th, 98th)
• DEF San Francisco 49ers (19th, 198th)

And yes, I know I need another kicker, but for some reason the Yahoo! system wasn’t letting us draft a second kicker. Oh well. Kickers are a crapshoot anyway.

Before I analyze a few of the players individually, here a few picks after which I smiled with that smug feeling we all get when we think we’ve really made a good value pick: Felix Jones, LeSean McCoy, Chris Henry, Vernon Davis.

And, just for good measure, here a few picks from other people that really pissed me off because it removed someone from the board a pick or two before I was targeting them: Drew Brees (I picked Brady), Randy Moss (I picked Gore), Ronnie Brown (I picked McNabb), Percy Harvin and Ted Ginn Jr (I picked Steve Smith, the Giants one), Ahmad Bradshaw (I picked V Davis).

Now that we have all of that out of the way, here are a few of the important lessons that I am taking away from my first fantasy football draft of the 2009 season:

I am bullish on Tom Brady

I know that Tom Brady is coming off a pretty nasty knee injury, and as fantasy football owners we have all been (rightfully) conditioned to be wary of using high draft picks on guys coming off of injury, but…

It’s Tom F’ing Brady. 

In a 2-QB league, I knew I wanted to get either Brees or Brady with the 8th pick since the elite RBs would be gone. Brees obviously comes with less risk and is stellar every season, but Brady is the one guy that I think has a legitimate shot to surpass Brees’ production this year. All you have to do is look at Brady’s last full season in the league to see what he’s capable of producing. That is why I also targeted Randy Moss in the second round, although my dad got to him first.

I’d been going back and forth in my mind about whether or not I consider Brady a first round pick. In a standard 1-QB league, probably not. But he would still be the 2nd QB I’d want. In a 2-QB league I definitely think he is a first round pick and my lack of hesitation in clicking the “Draft” button proved to me that I’m confident in Brady’s ability for a strong rebound season. And you should be too.

Felix Jones has the potential to be a mid-round pick that produces top-round value

Maybe it’s listening to Dallas radio every day and hearing the perpetually negative Dallas talking heads always gushing about Felix Jones. Or perhaps it’s the memory of his scintillating but sparse performances as a rookie in which he seemed to create a big play TD every game until he got hurt. Or quite possibly it’s the memory of how Steve Slaton and Chris Johnson turned into great late-round picks for me last year at RB.

Either way, for those reasons and many more, I am extremely high on Felix Jones this season.

For goodness sakes, Felix Jones averaged 8.9 yards per carry last year as a rookie.  Granted, he only got 30 carries in six games…but 8.9 yards per carry. He also scored 3 TDs in the midst of those 30 carries. I know that it’s a small sample size, but the Cowboys had already started to increase Jones’ role in the offense before he got hurt in Week 6. This season, they are committed to increasing his role even more.

There is already talk that Felix Jones may add punt returning to his list of duties, and from everything I have seen and read the Cowboys want to get him 12-15 touches per game. For a lot of players that might not be enough to secure an every week starting position on fantasy rosters, but for a guy with the breakaway ability of Jones it’s plenty.

Sure, he’ll have a few weeks where he might not generate huge numbers, but that is not unlike a lot of players. This is a guy who does not need goalline carries to get touchdowns — which is good, because Marion Barber will get those — and a guy who plays for a team that is seeking playmakers to replace the lost production of Terrell Owens.

It sounds like the Cowboys are going to be committed to running the ball more this year and to lightening the load on Marion Barber somewhat, especially in early in games, so he is fresh to close them out in the 4th quarter. That opens the door for Felix Jones to get his touches, and I have a feeling Jones will get more and more as the season progresses and he proves himself to be the most dynamic playmaker on a Cowboys’ offense that may struggle to get big plays out of its passing game.

I don’t think Felix Jones will produce 1st or 2nd round value — although he could if Marion Barber were to get hurt — but I do think he can be a solid #2 running back that produces like a 3rd or 4th round pick. I might have taken him a bit early in the 7th round, but only because I knew my brother wanted him too. My advice would be to start targeting Jones around the late 7th to early 8th round, and then reap the rewards of his big play TDs all season long.

Those two picks — Brady in the 1st and Felix Jones in the 7th — were the two I felt the strongest about coming out of last night’s draft.  Here a few other quick-hit thoughts regarding my players:

I think Donovan McNabb could be primed for one of his best seasons, assuming he stays healthy. The Eagles have a solid backup to the oft-dinged and now old Brian Westbrook in rookie LeSean McCoy (more on him later), plus they added another playmaking speedster in Jeremy Maclin to go along with DeSean Jackson. Not to mention, Michael Vick may get out there in some wildcat formations which could lead to some unconventional yardage or TDs for McNabb.

Something about McNabb just seems more at ease, more confident this offseason. And with the Eagles playing for the memory of Jim Johnson, and with the bitter taste of last year’s NFC Championship Game loss, I think they will have a solid season…with McNabb leading them every step of the way.

Shaun Hill is sneaky good, by the way, and makes a solid late-round pick as a backup QB.  Did you know that in 12 career starts Hill has a 90.5 passer rating? He should get the nod in San Francisco and be able to get you through a bye week or short-term injury to your starter.

I mentioned LeSean McCoy earlier.  I really like his potential this year as a possible Steve Slaton type back. Remember last season when Slaton started out as Ahman Green’s backup and was considered too small to be an everydown back? Green spent the whole season injured and ineffective and now Slaton is being picked in the first 10-15 selections. That could be McCoy next season.

McCoy’s value obviously goes down if Brian Westbrook stays healthy all year, but with Westbrook already digned up and getting up there in age, it’s not the most outlandish of bets that Westbrook misses some time this year. When he does, McCoy will be there to put up similar numbers as a dual threat back. Plus, McCoy has value even when Westbrook is healthy. The Eagles are going to reduce Westbrook’s workload this year in an effort to try and keep him fresh and healthy. McCoy can produce as a 3rd RB or flex player with 10-15 touches per game.

If you can get McCoy in the 9th to 11th rounds I think you could have yourself a potential Slaton/Chris Johnson type late round steal.

Wide receiver appears to be the weakness of my team, but after the consistent production of Hines Ward I think I have three guys that could significantly trump their production from a year ago.

Anthony Gonzalez enters his third season (the typical breakout year for WRs) and is now firmly entrenched as the #2 WR behind Reggie Wayne. I think Gonzalez is primed for at least 75-80 catches (solid in a PPR league) and should grab 5-7 TDs. 

Torry Holt is getting older and had a terrible year last season in St. Louis, but I see him having a resurgence in Jacksonville.  He is their clear #1 WR and all of the training camp reports say that he has quickly developed a rapport with David Garrard. Plus, Jacksonville has no one else at WR. Holt won’t be the Holt of old, but could put up solid #2 WR numbers. I like him for 80-90 catches and the wily vet could find his way into the endzone 7-8 times as well.

Steve Smith of the Giants is another third year receiver who could have a breakout year. He quietly grabbed 57 balls last year, but only for a 10.1 yard average and 1 TD. He is not a big play guy, nor will he probably score a lot of TDs. But with Plaxico Burress gone and the Giants lacking proven receiving threats on the outside, Eli Manning will probably go to Smith a lot. He has more value in a PPR league and could grab 75-85 balls and get in the endzone a few times. Not bad for a bye week fill-in, #4 WR.

And watch out for Chris Henry in Cincinnati. I know the guy is a knucklehead, but he’s also extremely talented, has Carson Palmer back at QB, and there is a 90-100 catch void with TJ Houshmandzadeh’s departure. Plus, Henry is apparently a “changed man” this year.  We’ll see about that, but guys with proven 50-60 catch, 6-8 TD ability are worthy of late-round fliers, which is why I took one on Henry.

Obviously I love getting Jason Witten, even in the 4th round, because he will be Tony Romo’s #1 target this season. And Witten has more value in a PPR league than a non-PPR. But I also think I may have plucked a top-5 tight end in the 13th round by picking Vernon Davis.

Yes, Davis has proven himself to be a bit of a diva and has failed to fulfill the vast potential that made him a #1 pick. But he still grabbed 52 balls and scored 4 times last year. He is also another guy with a checkered past that appears to be taking his profession more seriously this year. As with Chris Henry, we’ll see. But on a team that lacks great WRs, the tight end will see lots of opportunities in SF.

And for the record, look at Tony Gonzalez’s career stats. It wasn’t really until his third year that he broke out (76 catches, 11 TDs after only 4 TDs in his first two years). Targeting talented pass catchers in their third seasons is a proven strategy for finding sleeper success, and Vernon Davis is a guy you can get cheap that could far outperform his draft position.

Finally, I hate the New York Jets but I love the potential of their defense this year. Not only should they have a healthy Kris Jenkins and be buoyed by the presence of Lito Sheppard opposite Derrelle Revis, but they have former Ravens DC Rex Ryan calling the shots this year. Even if the Jets give up points, they will be aggressive. That means lots of sacks and lots of forced turnovers. Those are the types of defenses that can offer value even when they give up higher scores. I think the Jets could easily finish the year as a top-5, maybe even a top-3, fantasy defense.

**********

Remember, to get any and all fantasy questions answered in a quick and timely fashion, jump on over to the MSF Fantasy Football Discussion Forum, where we are waiting to help you out with your draft preparation. And I know that owe you the other half of my Bust/Sleeper column, so look for that later this week.

* – Tom Brady photo credit: Noon Time Sports

* – Felix Jones photo credit: Dallas Observer Sportatorium

* – Donovan McNabb and LeSean McCoy photo credit: Sean Simmers, The Patriot News via PennLive

ESPN’s Current Top 10 Fantasy Football Players: Over or Under

Yes, not long now before every fantasy football nut is tearing apart the Internet and those extremely overpriced magazines to help them decide who to draft, when, where, why and how!  This year I am at a disadvantage, as I am passing on my knowledge to all of you.  My competition in the Midwest Sports Fans Fantasy Football League will be able to gain insight into my strategies and opinions, which for the most part are nails, and use that against me. 

Oh well, it is what it is, and you will still see me in the Super Bowl.

[Editor's Note: Kurt's trash talk has been left in, unedited, because...well...we all need a good laugh every now and then.]

Onto ESPN’s current Fantasy Football Top 10 players based on their projected 2009 stats through their point scoring system, and whether or not I think each player will over- or under-perform the projections.

T-1.  Tom Brady, QB, Patriots (288 Points)  OVER!!!  Even though I think that New England will run more this year than any of their previous three years, you have to have faith in the quarterback with the most prolific statistical passing year ever, which was only two years ago.  Brady has more weapons now than he did then, including a better running game then ever before.  The Patriots will, however, run more for two reasons.  First, to keep the defense honest and avoid heavy blitzes intended to either make Brady a non-factor, or remove him all together from the game.  Secondly, to remove some pressure from the offensive line in having to protect the greatest quarterback ever 40 to 50 times a game.  If healthy, Brady will have another 300 plus point season.  He is my number 1 overall pick.

T-1.  Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (288 Points)  Rodgers tied with Brady?  Under, but not by much.  Compare Rodgers’ weapons with Brady’s… that’s right, you can’t.  There should be no tie here.  Although Rodgers finished second among QB’s last year with 286 ESPN fantasy football points, the Packers will have to establish the run this year to win games.  Establishing the run is not only a quarterback’s best friend, but the defense’s as well.  Ground and pound eats minutes off of the clock, allowing the defensive personnel time to recover in between possessions.  There are several other QB’s that I would take over Rodgers this year.

3.  Drew Brees, QB, Saints (287 Points)  Over, and over Rodgers in my opinion.  Brees was the #1 QB last year with 311 fantasy points.  I don’t see him beating last year’s numbers, but Brees has been an owner’s best friend since landing in N.O.  I do, however, have a somewhat bad feeling on Brees this year.  Look back on all of the previous fantasy gods who posted incredible numbers over the past few years.  Brady, Peyton Manning, Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Kurt Warner and on and on.  What do they all have in common?  After posting god-like statistical years, they came back and posted subpar years, if they played at all.  All of these players suffered from injuries or reduced effectivness the year following their epic years.  He should still be very, very good…but will Brees be added to the aforementioned list as a 2009 letdown?

4.  Peyton Manning, QB, Colts (277 Points) Under!  I may eat my words on this one, but there are too many intangibles that make me see it this way.  Manning finished sixth among QB’s last year with 253 points.  You cannot tell me that he will have a better year than last after losing Tony Dungy as his head coach and losing Marvin Harrison, his record setting wide receiver for over a decade.  Not to mention, the loss of Harrison will place more pressure on Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez.  Wayne often made double team attempts look stupid last year, but Gonzalez’s stats suffered when he was not burning slow safties out of the slot position.  And will Joseph Addai return to his 2007 form?  He must improve upon last year’s numbers to help Manning.  Peyton Manning is the smartest quarterback in the league, but is he smart enough to make up for all of these key losses?  Time will tell.

5.  Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings (272 Points)  Push.  Peterson, even with injuries, finished third among RBs last year with 237 points.  Their offense will be more productive this year regardless who is at QB. Farve, Jackson or Rosenfels will be able to produce in this offense, which will open up the door for A Pete.  I take Peterson after Brady and Brees.

6.  Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars (252 Points) Under.  There are questions surrounding MJD now that he has no Fred Taylor to spell him.  They formed a great 1-2 punch, and Jones-Drew has flourished in his role as a change-of-pace back.  Also, will David Garrard return to 2007 form?  If the box is stacked on MJD, he will not be successful.  Will he still be on special teams?  If so, the physical toll could hurt him offensively as the season goes along.  I would take several backs over MJD, starting with Michael Turner.

7.  Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals (250 Points)  Under.  Warner had 265 fantasy points last year.  At 38 years old, can he repeat that this year?  I think not.  At some point, Matt Lienhart will have to see the field become an actual NFL QB (he already has the salary and ego) and earn his ridiculous paycheck.  More importantly, can Warner stay healthy for a full season?  Will Arizona ever figure out how to run the ball?  Edgerrin James looked incredible on the ground in the playoffs, but that was to prove a point.  Without him on the roster, will they ever get more than .2 yards per carry out of touchdown monster Tim Hightower?  I avoid Kurt Warner in the first three rounds this year for these reasons.

8.  Matt Cassel, QB, Cheifs (247 points)  UNDER, UNDER, UNDER.  Have you lost your minds?  He scored 238 points last year with more weapons than a naval ship…more nukes than North Korea!  How can anyone possibly score more points on what has been a dismal Kansas City offense?  Cassell will make them better, and Dwayne Bowe’s stock goes way up with his addition, but New England’s offensive talent versus Kansas City’s talent, not to mention offensive line comparisons, is like comparing….well, never mind.  You get the picture.

T-9.  LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers (246 Points)  Push.  I take several players over LT, including the other two that ESPN had him tied with, just because they both have a greater upside than LT.  I do think he will benefit from Sproles getting more carries, as this combo could mirror the one-two punch that the Titans and Jaguars displayed last year.  LT only had 216 fantasy points last year, and even though his best years are behind him, if healthy, LT is still a top-5 running back.

T-9.  Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (246 Points)  Over.  Romo had 208 fantasy points last year while missing 4 games.  Romo lost a migraine when T.O. landed in Buffalo, and still his a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball.  Romo is in my top 10, and much higher than number 9.  Romo rebounds after the Terrell Owens brick!

T-9.  Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers (246 Points)  Push.  Rivers had 279 points last year, and benefited greatly from the Chargers’ inability to run the ball.  This will not be the case this year, and ESPN adjusted his numbers accordingly.  Rivers is still a no brainer though if available in the first round.

There was ESPN’s top 10 (11).  I am lost as to how Michael Turner and Jay Cutler were left off of this list.  And more importantly, how ESPN has David Garrard at #17.  There are at least 60 players I would take over Garrard.  I will say this about Garrard: he must produce this year to save his head coach’s job, now two years removed from his punting on long time starter Byron Leftwich.  Jack Del Rio may be sent packing if the Jags do not find themselves playing in late January. 

Getting back on track, Michael Turner is an absolute beast, and is arguably the best back in the NFL going into this season.  And Jay Cutler is going to play with such a large chip on his shoulder, he will only make those around him better, and has something he did not have in Denver: talented tight ends!

Want more info to follow heading into and throughout the season, I am now on facebook and twitter.

http://twitter.com/fraschettik

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Kurt Fraschetti

Senior Fantasy Football Writer-MidwestSportsFans.com

Fantasy Football: Tom Brady Versus History

by Josh Morris

 

From pick #199 in the 2000 draft to 4 Pro Bowl appearances and 3 Super Bowl victories in a 4 year span, New England’s Golden Boy Tom Brady has surmounted an elongated path to become arguably the most dominant QB of the modern NFL era. Since 2002 Brady’s seasonal stats have flirted with excellence; Throwing 23+ touchdowns, Avg. QB Rating of 85+, and over 3500 Pass Yards. Not to mention his Single-Season record of 50 TDs in the 2007 season with almost half of those delicacies belonging to newcomer Randy Moss. And why not throw in that his 4,806 Passing Yards were the 3^rd best of all time for a QB. Peyton who?

So why ramble on about a player whose top tier performances hardly need any more textual recognition? One word: history.

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