Update 12/14: I posted the spreads and picks for a few more games that are now on the board. Still a few more to go.

I believe the term is “humble pie.” I should know, because I have been fed a couple of nice helpings of that over these past two weeks.

After my terrific 10-4-1 mark in Week 12, I went 6-9 in Week 13 and am currently at 5-9 in Week 14 with the Ravens leading the Texans 28-7 on Monday Night Football. Who do I have? Gulp. Houston +3.

[Update: Looked like Houston might cover or at least push there for a while when the game went into OT, but then Schaub threw the damn Pick 6. Crap. 5-10 for the week it is.]

My current record on the season is 104-85-8. It looked a hell of a lot better two weeks ago.

Regardless, I’ve always gotten more right than I’ve gotten wrong picking games my way – first impression based on early lines – so I’ll keep doing it that way. I never put a dime on sports, but for anyone who uses these picks for such purposes, trust that I take these picks seriously even if my performance the last two weeks hasn’t shown it.

A couple of quick things to keep in mind:

• All times are ET.
• Spread info is from Monday night for most games. If you want updated point spread info, or some expert advice as you make your weekly picks, below are a few helpful links.
• DocSports: NFL Odds
• DocSports: NFL Picks

And with all that said, here are your Week 15 picks, point spreads, and over-under odds.

NFL Week 15 Bettor’s Guide

Free Picks Against the Spread – Point Spreads – Over-Under Odds

San Francisco 49ers at San Diego Chargers

• 49ers-Chargers Date: Thursday, December 16th at 8:20 pm on NFLN
• 49ers-Chargers Point Spread: Chargers -8.5
• 49ers-Chargers Over-Under Odds: 44.5
• 49ers-Chargers Pick: That was a very nice performance by the 49ers last week with Alex Smith back at the helm. Unfortunately, it was against the Seahawks away from Seattle, where most teams beat their ass. San Diego is still one of the best December teams in the NFL and simply has too many weapons for the inconsistent 49ers to overcome. Chargers-49ers free pick: Chargers -8.5

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

• Bills-Dolphins Date: Sunday, December 19th at 1:00 pm on CBS
• Bills-Dolphins Point Spread: Dolphins -6
• Bills-Dolphins Over-Under Odds: 41
• Bills-Dolphins Spread Pick: I like the Dolphins to win this game, but I’m not sure their offense can even score six points. I am, however, even less confident in the Bills’ ability to score six points against the surging Dolphins D. This should be a defensive battle. I think Buffalo keeps it close but ultimately loses.  Bills-Dolphins free pick: Bills +6

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys

• Redskins-Cowboys Date: Sunday, December 19th at 1:00 pm on FOX
• Redskins-Cowboys Point Spread: Cowboys -6
• Redskins-Cowboys Over-Under Odds: 45
• Redskins-Cowboys Spread Pick: Tough game to figure. The Cowboys are playing better than the Redskins, but neither team has anything to play for and both have been wildly inconsistent this year. Because it’s a divisional game, and because these two teams always seem to play eachother tough, I’ll be conservative and take the points. Redskins-Cowboys free pick: Redskins +6

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

• Texans-Titans Date: Sunday, December 19th at 1:00 pm on CBS
• Texans-Titans Point Spread: Titans -1.5
• Texans-Titans Over-Under Odds: 47.5
• Texans-Titans Spread Pick: Oh the poor Texans. Actually, oh the poor Titans too. Both of these teams have seen their seasons slip away. Since Tennessee is at home and has a competent quarterback – well, Kerry Collins at least – I’m picking them to win this one and break their long losing streak. Actually, while writing this I just got a nagging feeling that Houston will keep playing hard for its embattled coach, but we’ve already seen that Tennessee really hasn’t been. Screw it, I’m going with the Texans. Gotta trust the gut. Texans-Titans: Texans +1.5

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

• Browns-Bengals Date: Sunday, December 19th at 1:00 pm on CBS
• Browns-Bengals Point Spread: Bengals -1
• Browns-Bengals Over-Under Odds: 40
• Browns-Bengals Spread Pick: Like the Dolphins-Bills game, this is going to be a boring game between offenses that just aren’t very good. Cincinnati is at home, and they are only laying one point. I’ll give that point and assume the Bengals can finally break through and get their 3rd win of the season. Browns-Bengals free pick: Bengals -1

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

• Eagles-Giants Date: Sunday, December 19th at 1:00 pm on FOX
• Eagles-Giants Point Spread: Giants -3
• Eagles-Giants Over-Under Odds: 46
• Eagles-Giants Spread Pick: What a terrific game this will be. I’m taking the Eagles here for a few reasons: first, they have the best individual player on the field in Michael Vick; second, the Eagles are getting points and may just be better than New York anyway; and third, the Giants are coming off a short week in which they had all kinds of travel craziness. Add it up, and it’s the difference in a close game. Eagles-Giants free pick: Eagles +3

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

• Cardinals-Panthers Date: Sunday, December 19th at 1:00 pm on FOX
• Cardinals-Panthers Point Spread: Panthers -2.5
• Cardinals-Panthers Over-Under Odds: 37.5
• Cardinals-Panthers Spread Pick: The Cardinals are coming off a big win over a Denver team going through all kinds of tumult right now. Working against the Cardinals’ favor is the fact that they are a West Coast time flying East and having to play early. Given Arizona’s struggles to stop the run, and the Panthers’ commitment to running, I’ll show the Panthers some faith and lay the points. Cardinals-Panthers free pick: Panthers -2.5

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens

• Saints-Ravens Date: Sunday, December 19th at 1:00 pm on FOX
• Saints-Ravens Point Spread: Ravens -1.5
• Saints-Ravens Over-Under Odds: 43.5
• Saints-Ravens Spread Pick: My first thought for this game is that I don’t trust the Ravens’ pass defense to be able to stop the Saints. I’m also not big on taking teams that were in the Monday night game the next week if they are favored against a really good team. The Saints are clicking, with a consistent offense. The Ravens’ offense has not been so consistent, though it has been better at home than on the road. Still, I’ll take the point and a half if you give me Drew Brees over Joe Flacco. Saints-Ravens free pick: Saints +1.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

• Jaguars-Colts Date: Sunday, December 19th at 1:00 pm on CBS
• Jaguars-Colts Point Spread: Colts -5
• Jaguars-Colts Over-Under Odds: 48.5
• Jaguars-Colts Spread Pick: The Jags and Colts often play eachother very close, and I do expect this game to relatively close throughout. However, the Jags have always been a team that has shrunk from the biggest moves. The Colts, on the other hand, are experienced in winning important December games. After getting on track against Houston, I expect the Colts to play one of their best games of the season and tighten up the AFC South race. Jaguars-Colts free pick: Colts -5

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Lions-Buccaneers Date: Sunday, December 19th at 1:00 pm on FOX
• Lions-Buccaneers Point Spread: Bucs -6
• Lions-Buccaneers Over-Under Odds: 42
• Lions-Buccaneers Spread Pick: Oh those Lions. They keep on playing teams close and they finally broke through against the Packers last week. With Tampa Bay coming off a close battle against woeful Washington, I’m not feeling confident enough to lay nearly a touchdown. Josh Freeman will probably pull out another late win for Tampa Bay, but Detroit will make it interesting. Lions-Buccaneers free pick: Lions +6

Kansas City Chiefs at St. Louis Rams

• Chiefs-Rams Date: Sunday, December 19th at 1:00 pm on CBS
• Chiefs-Rams Point Spread: Rams -3
• Chiefs-Rams Over-Under Odds: 42.5
• Chiefs-Rams Spread Pick: St. Louis has played better at home all year long. I don’t like the momentum the Chiefs have right now. Chiefs-Rams free pick: Rams -3

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks

• Falcons-Seahawks Date: Sunday, December 19th at 4:05 on FOX
• Falcons-Seahawks Point Spread: Falcons -6
• Falcons-Seahawks Over-Under Odds: 45
• Falcons-Seahawks Spread Pick: The Seahawks just keep fading, playing terrible football by the week it seems. Atlanta, on the other hand, continues to play terrifically well, and are being pushed by the surging New Orleans Saints. That will help keep Atlanta focused and help them put away the Seahawks and not look back. Falcons-Seahawks free pick: Falcons -6

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers

• Jets-Steelers Date: Sunday, December 19th at 4:15 on CBS
• Jets-Steelers Point Spread: Steelers -6.5
• Jets-Steelers Over-Under Odds: 36
• Jets-Steelers Spread Pick: No way. With these two offenses both playing very poorly as of late, 6.5 might be the over-under, let alone what one team wins by. The Jets will at least keep this one close if they don’t pull out the W. Jets-Steelers free pick: Jets +6.5

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

• Broncos-Raiders Date: Sunday, December 19th at 4:15 on CBS
• Broncos-Raiders Point Spread: Raiders -6.5
• Broncos-Raiders Over-Under Odds: 44
• Broncos-Raiders Spread Pick: Tough one. After watching the Broncos get killed last week by pathetic Arizona, and seeing how explosive the Raiders running game was against Jacksonville, it’s hard to get excited about Denver. All I can think about is how Run DMC and Michael Bush ran all over Denver in their first meeting of the season. Thus, I’ll go with Oakland. Broncos-Raiders free pick: Raiders -6.5 Update: The spread is now Raiders -7.5 with Tim Tebow slated to start. I’ll stick with Oakland.
  

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots

• Packers-Patriots Date: Sunday, December 19th at 8:20 pm on NBC
• Packers-Patriots Point Spread: Patriots -14
• Packers-Patriots Over-Under Odds: 43.5
• Packers-Patriots Spread Pick: The Patriots against Matt Flynn at home? Yeah, you can have the 14 points. Packers-Patriots free pick: Patriots -14

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

• Bears-Vikings Date: Monday, December 20th at 8:30 pm on ESPN
• Bears-Vikings Point Spread: Bears -7.5
• Bears-Vikings Over-Under Odds: 33
• Bears-Vikings Spread Pick: Jay Cuter has been terrible lately, but Joe Webb isn’t even in the same class as Cutler…or even Tarvaris Jackson for that matter. I think the Bears roll the Vikings in this one, outside in the elements. Bears-Vikings spread pick: Bears -7.5

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Monday Night Football Preview

Tennessee Titans (3-6) at Houston Texans (5-4)

• Titans-Texans Date: Monday, November 23rd
• Titans-Texans Kickoff Time: 8:30
• Titans-Texans TV Network: ESPN
• Titans-Texans Announcers: Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, and Jon Gruden
• Titans-Texans Point Spread: Texans -4.5
• Titans-Texans Over-Under: 48
• Titans-Texans Spread Pick by Jerod: A few weeks ago this did not look like such a fun game. Now that Houston is a game out of the AFC Wild Card, and Vince Young has made the Titans competitive again, this should be a really entertaining game. First bit of advice: take the over. You’ve got Chris Johnson on the same field as Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. There will be scoring. I don’t think Tennessee is a world beater by any means, but this is still a team that went 13-3 last year and that is playing much better now with Vince Young at QB. And do you really trust Houston yet? I don’t. Titans-Texans free pick: Titans +4.5

Titans-Texans Analysis

After the Titans fell to 0-6, like many football fans, I let out a sigh and lamented, “How could it have gone so wrong, so quickly?”

Three wins later, the answer to what was wrong appears to have been Kerry Collins. During the Titans six-game losing streak, their fans were quick to excuse Collins’ consistently putrid performances as a function of the team’s “lack of weapons.”

With Vince Young now behind the helm however, this “weaponless” offense has begun to produce.

The big difference is that Young, who will carry a very respectable 66% completion percentage and 7.7 yards per attempt, has been making defenses pay for trying to stack the line to stop Chris Johnson. Young is still being handed a conservative playbook, but you can see the coaches slowly starting to increase his responsibilities.

But whether or not Vince Young turns into the next Randall Cunningham, or a pumpkin, the Titans offense is bright for two reasons:  Johnson and Kenny Britt.

Last year the Titans were panned for taking the little-known Johnson in the first round of the draft, since they already had a running back coming off a 1,000 yard season (Lendale White). Johnson was supposed to be the next Trung Canidate: a burner who probably wouldn’t amount to more than a third down back and return man in the NFL. Well what a difference two years makes; Johnson is now widely regarded as being among the elite RBs in the league.

He is the complete package: a home run threat that has the strength to grind it out between the tackles. He also is adept at picking up the blitz, and is one of the better receiving backs in the NFL. What makes Johnson so scary is that he can still improve his vision and anticipation in finding the holes made by his offensive line.

Meanwhile, the aforementioned Britt, this year’s first round pick for the Titans, has flashed the enormous potential that compelled the Titans to select him. Britt’s rookie season has been a success, as despite being the third receiver for one of the worst passing teams in the NFL, he’s still on pace for over 600 receiving yards.

After solid production last week in place of the injured Justin Gage, I would expect the Titans to increase his opportunities within the offense. And while Britt may not make that much of an impact this year, remember his name, because he may be one of the league’s better receivers for years to come.

For two years now, Texans fans have claimed that “if only Matt Schaub were healthy,” the Texans could be a playoff caliber team. Turns out they were right, as the typically fragile Schaub has remained uncharacteristically healthy through his first nine games and has been putting up MVP caliber statistics. The result is a Texans team on the brink of their first playoff berth in the franchise’s history.

Houston is coming off a heart-breaking three point loss to the Colts in Indianapolis, (missing a 42 yard FG in the waning seconds that would have sent the game to overtime) where they stayed neck and neck with the elite team of the AFC. This wasn’t a fluke either, as the Texans had already beaten the Bengals in Cincy earlier in the year.

Clearly this is now a team that is capable with playing with the big dogs of the NFL. In fact, many see many similarities between the 2009 Texans and the 2008 Arizona Cardinals: a veteran presence at QB, an explosive offense lead by a dominating WR, a murky RB situation, and a defense which is young and extremely athletic.

According to Gary Kubiak however, it is the defense, not the offense, which is the strength of his team. And with 17 take-away through their first nine games, Kubiak may have a point. The success of the defense this year has hinged on the All-Pro caliber play of defensive end Mario Williams and rookie linebacker Brian Cushing. Each will have a vital role in this week’s game.

Cushing will be assigned to stay with Chris Johnson and prevent the big play. Considering that Chris Johnson leads the NFL in runs over 20 yards, this will be no easy task. Williams, on the other hand, will have the responsibility to get to the elusive Vince Young and throw off his rhythm. Though Williams has only four sacks on the year, the former #1 overall pick has demanded constant double teams, and thereby his mere presence on the field makes the rest of the Texans D-line inherently stronger.

On the other hand, the running back situation truly is “murky” with fumble-ridden Steve Slaton more suited to be a third down back and gadget player akin to how Reggie Bush is being utilized on the Saints. Ryan Moats, who once upon a time was supposed to be the next Brian Westbrook (before injuries hit), has looked very good the past couple of weeks, running with speed and power. The Texans should bite the bullet and give him a legitimate chance to claim the starting running back duties.

[Editor's note: Late on Saturday the Texans announced the Steve Slaton will get the starting nod at running back Monday night. It is still unclear, however, exactly what that means. Kubiak has said he is committed to using Slaton, Moats, and goalline line back Chris Brown. We will have to wait and see what the carry split ends up being.]

Titans-Texans Prediction

These teams are close, but right now the Texans are better. Offensively, they will abuse the Titans through the air, and defensively, Houston has players who are athletic enough to contain Chris Johnson.

Hungry for their first playoff appearance in franchise history, and with a fortnight to rest after the Colts loss, the Texans will cover the spread.

I’d avoid the over/under, because whereas I’m fairly confident the Texans will put up points, the Titans may or may not. Vince Young is due for one subpar performance eventually.

Titans-Texans spread pick: Texans -4.5

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* – Vince Young photo credit: Ricua Talon

* – Brian Cushing photo credit: AP photo via Yahoo! Sports UK