UFC 102 Preview: Odds and Predictions for Couture-Nogueira and Silva-Jardine

August 21, 2009 By Leave a Comment

The UFC 102 fight card that will take place next weekend is being touted by some MMA betting fans as being a much better card than UFC 100 or 101, and the main bouts are being headlined by the fighters who are 205 pounds and over.

UFC 102 Odds – Saturday, August 29, 10:00 PM ET

Randy Couture (16-9) vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (31-5-1-1)

This heavyweight bout features two of the legendary fighters in MMA history, and both are coming off losses. Couture is a -180 favorite despite losing his belt to Brock Lesnar at UFC 91, but that was a bad fight for him as Lesnar was too big for the “Natural” to control with his wrestling skill. Nogueira was beaten by Frank Mir at UFC 91 for the interim heavyweight title, but it was revealed that “Minotauro” had a staph infection which hospitalized him in the run-in to the fight. That, combined with being a +150 underdog, should be more than enough motivation for Nogueira to prove that he’s still a draw in the UFC. If you’re a betting management player, take Nogueira in the upset pick.

Thiago Silva (13-1) vs Keith Jardine (14-5-1)

Silva is coming off a loss to Lyoto Machida in a match for Machida’s light-heavyweight belt, as he was knocked out just before the end of the first round. Jardine, as known as the “Dean of Mean”, has lost three of his last five fights, but he can’t be counted out. Jardine has racked up wins over guys like Chuck Liddell, Brandon Vera and Forrest Griffin, which is the only reason I can come with for him being a -160 favorite against Silva, who will be hungry to make his way back up the 205-pound ladder after losing to Machida. He has devastating power, as 10 of his 13 wins have come by knockout, and he’s well versed in the ways of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Muay Thai. Jardine is in an unfamiliar spot as a favorite, and that could stand to hurt him in the long run. Go with Thiago Silva as a +130 underdog in your UFC sports picks next weekend.

Filed Under: MMA, Sports Betting Tagged With: Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera, Keith Jardine, MMA, randy couture, Sports Betting, Thiago Silva, UFC 102

UFC 94 Recap: The Aftermath

February 1, 2009 By Leave a Comment
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St-Pierre v PennIt’s in the books, UFC94 is done and over. BJ Penn, Nate Diaz, Stephen Bonnar, and Thiago Silva are all scratching their heads trying to figure out what happened. I went 1-2 on my picks and finally hit an upset special. Here’s my quick review.

Starting at the top:

GSP defeated BJ Penn Via Stoppage.

GSP dominated this fight. After watching these two mix it up, it almost seems silly that anyone ever doubted GSP. The only thing Penn showed us in this fight is that he can take a beating, then have his brother throw in the towel. This was 1 round of feeling out and then 3 rounds of dominance. Two questions now remain: 1) How does BJ Penn respond to this beating and 2) Do we now get to see GSP fight Anderson Silva?

The answer to the first question has already started to be answered as BJ’s camp has filed a formal complaint with the Nevada State Athletic Comission over GSP’s corner adding Vaseline to his back in between rounds 1 and 2. As Dana White put it “some Vaseline on a guy’s back didn’t change the outcome of that fight, but you don’t do it.”

Lets hope that UFC continues its tradition of giving us fans what we want and talks Anderson Silva into going down in weight, or GSP into going up in weight so we can finally see who the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world really is (no offense meant toward Fedor).

Next we will look at Jon “Bones” Jones defeating “The American Psycho” Stephen Bonnar Via Decision

I used their ring names because I love them both for different reasons. Bonnar has the best in MMA, and Jones may have the worst. Therefore I am quite fond of them both. UFC94 Review

Jones dominated the first and second round of this fight. He showed aggressiveness and the ability to throw a sick spinning elbow (pictured). “Bones” gassed out in the third, but by that point all he had to do was keep from getting knocked out or submitted.

Bonnar is still good, but he needs to really work to catch up to his TUF 1 opponent Forrest Griffin. Joe Rogan mentioned he is now training at Extreme Couture and that will help him in the future, but if he wants to keep in the mix at 205 he really needs a convincing victory soon.

Now onto the fights I missed:

Lyoto Machida defeated Thiago Silva via KO

UFC 94 RecapYes you read that right. Lyoto KO’ed my pick Silva. This fight went the way I thought it would with Silva trying to be aggressive against Lyoto’s bait and counter style. That being said, I never thought that Lyoto would be so efficient. He knocked Silva silly two times before finishing him off. All it took was a picture perfect foot sweep followed by a fist to the face on his way to the mat with one second left in the first round. When the bell sounded Lyoto got up to walk to his corner and Silva laid motionless. It was an awkward KO and a surprising one given Lyotos penchant for winning by decision. I could be wrong about Lyoto… maybe he is good.

Clay Guida defeated Nate Diaz Via Split Decision

So, due to me working late last night, and not being able to find this fight online, I haven’t seen it yet. I can only assume that Nate Diaz made some profaine gestures then cussed at Clay a bunch. Guida was forced to start swinging his arms like the Tasmanian Devil until one shot hit Nate in the face and they then went to the mat. Now I’ll say Nate again flipped the bird at Guida while Guida was in Nate’s guard. Guida then began to smother Diaz with his curly locks of hair. This went on for 3 rounds. One judge was impressed at Diaz’s ability to keep his brother from jumping into the ring and starting a scuffle, so he gave the fight to Nate. The other two judges were enamored with Guida’s ability to use his hair as a weapon, so they gave it to him. I’ll also assume that after the fight Stocton’s favorite sons, The Diaz Brothers, gave big props to their home town then went on call out fighters who are still under contract to Elite XC.

As mentioned above, I missed the rest of the show, so here is a list of the rest of the fights:

Matt Arroyo defeated Dan Cramer Via Split Decision

Jake O’Brien defeated Christian Wellisch Via Split Decision

John Howard defeated Chris Wilson Via Split Decision

Thiago Tavares defeated Manny Gamburyan Via Decision

Jon Fitch defeated Akihiro Gono Via Decision

Karo Parisyan defeated Dong Hyun Kim Via Split Decision

Filed Under: Featured Column, MMA Tagged With: BJ Penn, Clay Guida, Georges St-Pierre, Jon Jones, Lyoto Machida, MMA, Nate Diaz, Stephen Bonnar, Thiago Silva, ufc, UFC 94

UFC 94: St-Pierre v Penn 2 – Preview, Predictions, and Lines

January 28, 2009 By 1 Comment
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UFC 94 Preview - St Pierre-Penn | Preview and Prediction - Betting LinesLadies and gentlemen it’s finally here.

After three weeks of hype, two weeks of underwhelming PPV’s, and a lucky punch by Fedor, we have now come to UFC 94: St-Pierre Vs. Penn 2. Now I’m going to take a moment and let you all know my predictions have been off the last few months. I have gone a total 2-5 since picking for this site and am 0-2 on my upset specials. This has not only hurt my pride but also my check book.

A quick breakdown of the particulars:

  • What: UFC 94: St-Pierre v Penn
  • When: Saturday, January 31 at 10:00 PM ET
  • Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas
  • TV: PPV – $44.95 ($54.95 if you want HD)

Let’s start this preview at the top:

Georges St-Pierre ( Welterweight Champion) -185 Vs. BJ Penn (Lightweight Champion) +130

This is one of the most anticipated rematches in UFC history. It has all the makings of a true blood feud. St-Pierre and Penn legitimately dislike each other, their first fight was won on a split decision, and both men are current UFC champions.

If you look at common opponents both men have fought Sean Sherk, Matt Hughes, and Matt Serra. They both beat Sean Sherk by TKO, so no advantage there. They have both beaten Matt Serra, but Penn did it in his first try (decision). St-Pierre got unlucky in their first fight and lost to a TKO, but followed it up with a dominate TKO victory in the rematch. I have to give Penn the advantage there.

Things get interesting as we look at Matt Hughes. Penn submitted a near his prime Hughes in ’04, but then got TKO’ed to a past his prime Hughes in ’06. St-Pierre was submitted by a near his prime Hughes in ’04 and then submitted a past his prime Hughes in ’07. I think St-Pierre gets this one because losing to Hughes in ’04 isn’t anything to be ashamed of, but losing to him in ’06, via TKO no less, is probably a bit of a blemish. While on the subject of Hughes, Saturday night will be the 5 year anniversary of Penn’s win.

The first match between Penn and St-Pierre was a split decision that saw St-Pierre win, but a split decision isn’t much to go off of. Looking at common opponents also wont give you much. I say go with your gut. Mine says St-Pierre wins. He works harder then Penn, seems to take his career more seriously then Penn, and he scares me more then Penn. All that being said, this fight could really go either way. Both are solid standing up and on the ground, both have a blood lust, and both are insanely competitive. I think Penn’s ego gets in his way and St-Pierresomehow pulls it out in the 2nd.. lets say by submission.

My Pick: Georges St-Pierre

What do you think?

Who will win?

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Lyoto Machida -265 Vs. Thiago Silva +200

I’m telling you right now, this will be an upset (but not my special). Both of these fighters stand undefeated with a record of 13-0. It’s my opinion the only reason Lyoto is favored so heavily is because he beat Tito Ortiz. The truth of the matter is that Lyoto won that fight by running away from Tito. He didn’t really land any shots and only seemed to have an advantage once in the fight. He also almost gaveUFC 94 Preview and Prediction and Betting Lines up a triangle to Tito (a man not known for his submission skills). Loyto has won 4 of his 5 UFC fights by decision.

On the other hand you have Thiago Silva. He has won all 4 of his UFC fights by TKO or submission. I don’t think he will let Lyoto run away from him like Tito and others have. Most importantly, Thiago is freaking scary man! I’ve seen all 4 of his UFC fights and he has been dominate. I say this is a first round TKO for Silva

MY Pick: Thiago Silva

Stephan Bonnar -185 Vs. Jon Jones +154

We all know and love “The American Psycho” Stephen Bonnar. His Ultimate Fighter 1 main event against Forrest Griffin helped to cement the UFC as Americas next big sport. He never backs down and he can take a crap load of punishment. We all always pull for the guy, but he hasn’t fought in the UFC since October of 2007 and he is 31 years old. The clock is ticking on Bonnar.

Jon Jones appears to be an up and comer, he’s only 21 and has a record of 7-0. That could be deceiving though as only one of his fights have come in the octagon.

UFC94 Preview, Prediction, LinesThis seems like a developmental fight to me. If Jones loses it wont hurt his stock because Bonnar is a known name with a fan base and a guy who’s only UFC losses come at the hands of the current and former Light Heavy Champions (Rashad Evans and Forrest Griffin). Yet, if he wins it is a upset victory and the UFC has the beginnings of a new star.

I don’t know enough about Jones to predict how this fight will go, but I get the feeling someone in the UFC may have decided to groom this guy. I will choose this as my upset special.

My Pick: Jon “Bones” Jones

Nate Diaz -130 Vs. Clay Guida EVEN

If you’re anything like me, chances are you think Nate and his brother Nick are both a waste of talent. Nate isn’t as bad as Nick, but the simple relation to him makes me hope that Clay justifies the way this line has been moving for the last 2 weeks.

I have no horse in this race, and I don’t know much about Clay Guida, but I want to see Nate Diaz loose. That being said, I pick him to win. He may be a mess as a person, but he has talent. It also doesn’t hurt that the few times I have seen Clay in action he has been inconsistent.

My Pick: Nate Diaz

Filed Under: Featured Column, MMA Tagged With: BJ Penn, Clay Guida, Georges St-Pierre, Jon Jones, Lyoto Machida, MMA, Nate Diaz, Stephan Bonnar, Thiago Silva, ufc