Texas Tech, led by Bloomington-born and raised Pat Knight, scored a thrilling come-from-behind victory last night over Texas A&M to move into the second round of the Big 12 Tournament. The Red Raiders’ victory featured an unbelievable performance by Mike Singletary, who scored at will in the second half.

And just a few minutes ago the Baylor Bears finished off a 71-64 upset of #1 seed Kansas. Baylor is led by Butler graduate Scott Drew, the son of legendary Valpo coach Homer Drew.

Scott Drew has engineered a remarkable turnaround at Baylor, which suffered through a scandal under Dave Bliss in the early part of this decade that rocked the foundation of the basketball program. The Bears made the NCAA Tournament last year, ultimately losing to Purdue in the first round, and were a trendy pick to be there again in this year. They fell on hard times in conference play, however, and are now fighting tooth and nail to earn the Big 12’s automatic berth.

Considering what Scott Drew started with in 2003, his 12-52 conference record over his first four years is not all that surprising. Despite their struggles this season, Baylor’s upset of Kansas today proves that the Bears’ basketball program is still on the upswing under Scott Drew.

While I predicted an IU victory over Penn State tonight, and am hoping beyond hope that the Hoosiers pull off the upset and can face Purdue in round two, our 1-17 conference record, and the injury to Devan Dumes, does not give me a whole lot of legitimate confidence. Should the Hoosiers’ season end later today, I will happily jump onto the Baylor bandwagon as long as it’s rolling — in addition to the Tech bandwagon that I’ve already been on ever since Bob Knight went there.

Congratulations Pat and Scott. Two more wins for Tech and one more for Baylor and the two will meet in the Big 12 Championship game. That is a looooonnnnnggggg way from being a reality, but hey — with Indiana suffering through the worst season in school history, a Hoosier can dream, can’t he?

If you came to this page looking for picks and predictions for the 2009 NCAA Tournament, we’ve got you covered.

Follow the link to our 2009 NCAA Tournament Game-by-Game Picks all the way through the Final Four.

Or, you can view them by region:

• Midwest Region Breakdown and Predictions
• East Region Breakdown and Predictions
• South Region Breakdown and Predictions
• West Region Breakdown and Predictions

And if you actually came to this page to review our 2009 Big 12 Tournament predictions, pardon the interruption and continue reading below.

So, if you didn’t realize from my Big 12 Tournament Preview post earlier this week, I have always thought one thing when I look at Kansas head coach Bill Self: Jon Arbuckle. I was a huge Garfield fan when I was a kid, and Self is the spitting image of Garfield’s toolish owner.

Luckily for Kansas fans though, Self has been much more successful as a college basketball coach than Jon Arbuckle ever was…at anything.

The Jayhawks enter the 2009 Big 12 Tournament as the champions of the last three, and winners of six of the twelve Big 12 tournaments that have taken place. I don’t think many people expected Kansas to have the #1 seed this year, considering what they lost off of last year’s NCAA Championship team, but here they are.

Will Kansas achieve a very impressive Four-Peat? Or will they ar-buckle under the pressure and allow a new Big 12 Tournament champion to emerge?

Before I give you my predictions, let’s break down a few important things first: a) a few links on the Big 12 Tourney and to help you buy tickets to the Big 12 or NCAA Tournament; b) the bracket, which I will update as the games become final; and c) the current odds for each team. Here we go:

Links:

• Big 12 Tournament History: Past Champions and MVPs
• StubHub Tickets: 2009 Big 12 Basketball Tournament Tickets
• StubHub Tickets: 2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

And here are the odds of winning the 2009 Big Ten Championship game for each team (according to OffShoreInsiders.com):

• Oklahoma odds: +140
• Kansas odds: +150
• Missouri odds: +350
• Texas odds: +800
• Texas A&M odds: +800
• Kansas State odds: +1000
• Baylor odds: +2500
• Nebraska odds: +2500
• Field (any other team): +2500

And now, let’s break down the 2009 Big 12 Tournament game-by-game until we come up with a hypothetically predicted Big 12 champion:

Big 12 Tournament Bracket and Predictions: Wednesday Games

What a disappointment Baylor has been this season. Coming off last year’s success, Scott Drew was the favorite of some IU fans to become the new head coach in Bloomington. And with guys like Curtis Jerrells and LaceDarius Dunn back, Baylor was a trendy pick to be a Top 25 team in 2008-09. However, the Bears are 17-13 (5-11 in conference) after starting the season 12-2. Still, I think the Bears’ ability to score (despite recent struggles), and their postseason experience from last year, makes them a darkhorse in the Big 12 Tournament. Nebraska just beat Baylor 66-62 in each team’s final regular season game, but I think Baylor pulls off the mini-upset here and advances. Baylor wins.

Colorado went 1-15 in conference play and sucks. Texas only went 9-7, but this is a solid 20-10 team that will play in the NCAA Tournament. I’d be shocked if this is even a game. Texas wins.

Oklahoma State finished in the four-team quagmire at 9-7, and this is a team that can really score and that is playing well. In their last 7 games, OSU is 6-1 with a four-point loss to Oklahoma being the only blemish. They spanked Iowa State earlier this year and the Cyclones, losers of 5 out of their last 7, have done nothing to show they have improved since the first meeting. Oklahoma State wins.

As a die-hard Hoosiers, Texas Tech has been my 2nd-favorite team since Bob Knight took over there. Now that Pat Knight is the head coach, the Red Raiders remain a favorite of mine. Unfortunately, Tech has sucked this season, going 3-13 in conference play and not stopping anyone on D. A&M beat them twice, scoring 79 each time. Of course, Texas Tech did recently beat Kansas by 19, so anything is possible. I hope Texas Tech proves me wrong, but I think Texas A&M wins.

Big 12 Tournament Bracket and Predictions: Thursday Games

Assuming that my Wednesday picks prove true, my darkhorse Baylor will be playing Kansas in Round 2. Can the Bears win? Probably not. Kansas has really played well in conference play, minus the hiccup against Tech. They beat Baylor earlier this year, and while I think the Bears will make this a good game, I don’t think they play enough D to win it. Kansas advances.

Texas would play Kansas State in my hypothetical 2nd round. Both teams went 9-7 in conference play and both teams went 20-10 overall. However, Kansas State beat Texas in their one meeting in Austin. This game is a really toss up, so I’m going with Kansas State — because I live in Dallas and Longhorn fans can be really annoying. Not a very scientific way to pick a victor, I know, but there just is not much separating these two teams.

An Oklahoma-Oklahoma State matchup in the 2nd round would be fun. Most people think, and I agree, that Oklahoma is the best team in the conference. Had Blake Griffin not gotten hurt, they might not have dropped that back-to-back set against Texas and Kansas. Still, the Sooners have lost three of their last five. But they beat Oklahoma State twice during the regular season, and are now back at full health. I think Griffin and the Sooners will be on a mission to prove that they are the best team in the Big 12. Oklahoma wins.

Texas A&M-Missouri in the second round would be a rematch of both teams’ final regular season game, in which A&M won by 10 at home. In the two previous games, Missouri lost to Kansas by 25 and then beat Oklahoma by 9. Will the real Tigers please stand up? The Aggies are playing very good defense of late and have won six in a row entering the tourney. I think the Aggies score another win over Missouri and advance to the semi-finals.

Big 12 Tournament Bracket and Predictions: Friday Games

The battle of Kansas would ensure if my above predictions prove true. They played twice this season, with Kansas winning by double figures each time. And while I think Kansas State will pull of the win over Texas, the Wildcats have not scored an impressive victory since February 7th at Texas A&M. The Jayhawks will march on to the Big 12 Championship game.

Oklahoma-Texas A&M could be a very good game, and one the Aggies could win. However, Oklahoma won both regular season meetings and this would be A&M’s third game in three days. I think their Big 12 Tournament run ends here, as the Sooners and Blake Griffin will just be too much to overcome with less-than-100% legs.

Big 12 Tournament Championship Game on Saturday

It is the matchup that everyone wants to see: Kansas versus Oklahoma. You know Blake Griffin wants a chance to avenge the February 23rd loss, and a pissed off/motivated Blake Griffin is not a good thing for any opponent. Oklahoma is the best team in the Big 12 when healthy, and is still gunning for a #1 seed. I think the beat Kansas, and beat them convincingly to win the Big 12 title.

So there you go — one man’s first impression, quick hit predictions for the 2009 Big 12 Tournament. As always, I suggest that you run to your nearest bookie and bet completely the opposite way, but that’s your call. Game 1 between Nebraska and Baylor tips off in a little over an hour, so I’ll be updating the bracket above as the day and week goes on.

(Photo Art by Midwest Sports Fans.)

First off, I want to congratulate Sam Bradford on winning the Heisman Trophy. He put up some of the most ridiculous numbers college football has ever seen this year, and led the Oklahoma Sooners to five straight 60-point outings to close out the season. That is remarkable.

And I want to congratulate the Oklahoma Sooners on becoming Big 12 Champs and being selected to play the Florida Gators in the BCS National Championship game. The Sooners are on quite a roll right now and the Oklahoma-Florida matchup to determine the champion should be exciting.

But what the hell did the University of Texas do to become the toilet of college football in 2008? All they did was go 11-1, beat Oklahoma, and have a QB set the NCAA record for completion percentage. With all that said, let’s count the ways that Texas has been shit on this season:

1 — Despite having an identical 11-1 record with Oklahoma, and owning the head-to-head tie-breaker with the Sooners, Texas was left home during the Big 12 Championship while Oklahoma played Missouri.

2 — Again, despite having the same record as Oklahoma and beating them, Texas experienced their one loss a few weeks later in the season and fell behind Oklahoma in the polls and BCS standings. This is what gave Oklahoma the right to play in the Big 12 Championship game and make it to the BCS National Championship game…despite the ugly fact that a team with an identical record, and that they lost to, will have to watch the championship game from home.

3 — Colt McCoy was sensational in his head-to-head matchup against Sam Bradford. He made the plays to win his school’s biggest game of the year. Sam Bradford did not. The #1 and #2 vote-getters in the Heisman balloting met on the same field, and the the guy who lost and played worse ended up winning the award for Most Oustanding Player in America.

If I were a Texas fan, I’d be feeling a little salty right now. If I were an Oklahoma fan, I’d be thanking my lucky stars that the 2008 Sooners somehow defied the most basic logic that is supposed to govern sports: nothing is more important than what happens on the field.

Oh wait — this is college football we are talking about, the sport where logic is nowhere to be found.

I am having a hard time coming up with a more egregious set of circumstances to end a season and determine a national champion than what has happened this year. And if the Illogical Quagmire of 2008 cannot galvanize change and inspire a movement towards a playoff, I’m not sure what will. If you have the same record as another team, but you beat them on the field of play, you should take priority and be rewarded. That did not happen this year, and Texas got royally screwed because of it.

And if choosing the winner of an individual honor requires the splitting of hairs, as this year’s Heisman Trophy voting clearly did (based on the fact that the difference between #1 and #3 was smaller than the typical difference between #1 and #2), then beating the other candidate head-to-head should carry some pretty serious weight. Obviously it did not in this case, as Sam Bradford came out ahead of Colt McCoy.

And here’s the really sad thing: I know a lot of people are reading this and chomping at the bit to get the comments and tell me I’m an idiot for arguing about Texas and ignoring Texas Tech. Well guess what? That is even more proof for my point!

Texas Tech beat Texas who beat Oklahoma who beat Texas Tech. And yet, the big argument at the end of the season was between Texas and Oklahoma, with Texas Tech all but forgotten. Sure, Oklahoma wiped the floor with Texas Tech. And I would rank them 3rd out of those three on my own personal ballot. But who cares!? Does the old saying, “That’s why they play games” mean anything in college football?

Apparently not.

Not only was Texas Tech shut out of the Big 12 championship game, shut out of the BCS, and shut out of even getting an invite to the Heisman ceremony (despite having the #4 and #5 vote-getters in Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree), but they weren’t even in the conversation! How ridiculous is that?

Unfortunately, that is college football.

I love college football. I grew up going to games every Saturday, and I love nothing more than watching, debating, and reading about college football all Fall long. But I love college basketball more, and for one extremely important reason: champions are determined on the court, and not through media politicking or in a computer.

Oklahoma had a historic season in many ways in 2008. One feat that should definitely go down in the record books is that they recorded the first loss in the history of college football that, apparently, was not a loss.

In the absence of a playoff, when two teams with identical records do not play eachother, subjective opinions must be solicited to attempt to determine who is better. This has always been a part of college football, and there is no way around it to a certain degree. But when teams play eachother on the field, that game has to mean something. In this case, Oklahoma may as well have just won that game 45-35 instead of what actually happened. Oklahoma was treated like a 12-0 team, while Texas was dealt the fate of a team that went 10-2 and lost to the Sooners.

Oh yeah, and don’t forget about Texas Tech.

My head is starting to hurt just writing this, because it is such a sad and ridiculous circle of idiocy. The only thing standing between college football and a playoff is excuses. College basketball does it. The other college football divisions do it. And somehow, a better method simply has to be implemented to determine champions.

One of the most popular arguments bandied about in opposition of a playoff is that a playoff would lessen the importance of the regular season, that what makes college football different is that a game in October is just as meaningful as a game in January. Well to all of the people who make that argument, I present the 2008 college football season as the quintessential counter-argument that you simply cannot refute.

How meaningful is the college football regular season when Texas can beat Oklahoma, yet Oklahoma goes to the Big 12 championship, the national championship, and the Oklahoma QB beats out the Texas QB for the Heisman?

How meaningful is the college football regular season when Texas Tech can beat Texas, and their arguments are not even taken seriously, for the most part because they do not have the same prestige as Texas and Oklahoma?

It doesn’t seem all that meaningful to me. Not after this season.

What do you think?

So congratulations to Oklahoma. 2008 truly has been the Year of the Sooners, because somehow Oklahoma was able to defy sports logic and completely erase the typical consequences of losing. And this is not a knock on Oklahoma, their coaches, or their players — they have an amazing team. And it is hard to argue that they are not deserving of a spot in the championship game. The problem is that it is not hard to argue for Texas or Texas Tech either.

So the knock is not on Oklahoma, but rather on the idiotic system of college football over which the Sooners have no control.

I just hope that 2008 was a step backwards that can ultimately lead to a giant leap forward — in the form of a playoff. All of this illogical BS has gone on for far too long in college football and it is time for what happens on the field to matter more than what happens on a ballot.

Discussion Questions for Comments Section:

1. Do you think that Texas and Texas Tech got screwed in 2008?
2. Do you want to see a playoff in college football? Why or why not?

Looking forward to everyone’s responses on this topic. And let’s just hope that one of these days, logic can actually become a part of college football.

Texas Tech comes into Saturday night’s matchup (at 8:00 ET on ABC) with an 10-0 record, a #2 ranking, and off of back-to-back wins over top 10 teams Texas and Oklahoma State. The Oklahoma Sooners will defend their home turf Saturday with a 9-1 record, a #5 ranking, and a loss to Texas (in Dallas at the Cotton Bowl) as their only blemish of the year.

Both teams have offenses that are pretty much ridiculous. Texas Tech, powered by the lethal combo of Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, is #1 in the nation in passing yards per game with 438.6, and they are #2 in overall offense. Oklahoma is led by superstar sophomore Sam Bradford and is #4 in total offense and #3 in passing offense. Holy crap I am getting excited for this game.

If the over-under is anything less 100, take the over.

What are the keys to victory? I’ll run down a few in the preview and then offer up a prediction. But first, chime in with your prediction:

Texas Tech-Oklahoma Preview: Keys to victory for Texas Tech

1 — Emotion and Mindset

For two straight weeks, Texas Tech has played “the biggest game in school history” and they have won both of them. The Texas game was a knock down, drag out fight that they were able to pull out by the skin of their teeth with an incredible touchdown pass from Graham Harrell to Michael Crabtree in the final seconds. It is the kind of play a team makes when they are that season’s “darling of destiny.” (Case in point: think about Tennessee in 1998 and how they won a game on a phantom pass interference and another when Clint Stoerner fumbled while attempting to run out the clock. Some teams just get all the breaks for an entire season.)

Texas Tech needed no breaks against Oklahoma State, however. They thoroughly whooped the Cowboys, who failed to get Dez Bryant enough play-making opportunities. Now, the Red Raiders are 10-0 and have spent a two weeks since the Texas win listening to everyone tell them they are the greatest thing since sliced bread. Not to mention, they have played with a very high level of emotion and concentration for two consecutive weeks.

Can they maintain it? That is the key question. Norman will be a hostile environment and Oklahoma usually jumps out to early leads with their high-octane offense. If Texas Tech gets down, they can’t panic or lose their emotion. Emotion and mindset have been a strength of Texas Tech all year. It needs to be again.

2 — Pressure Sam Bradford to force turnovers

In Oklahoma’s lone loss this year, Sam Bradford was picked off twice by Texas. He has only been picked off four times in their other 9 games. Texas fell behind early but was able to come back because of timely special teams plays and turnovers. Sam Bradford has been spectacular through nearly two seasons, but has shown a propensity to lose his poise late in games or when Oklahoma is down. Texas Tech needs to capitalize on this and get to him every chance they can.

3 — Establish a ground game

Texas Tech is known for its aerial assault, but Texas won because they stayed committed to running the football. Colt McCoy threw 35 passes and as a team they ran it 35 times. Texas Tech doesn’t need such an even split (McCoy ran it 14 times himself, while Harrell won’t do that), but they do need to try to control the ball, especially late if they have a lead. The top two running backs for Texas Tech average over 5 yards per carry. The Red Raiders will rack up points behind the superb ability of Graham Harrell in leading the spread, but they can salt away a victory by pounding a struggling Oklahoma defense with the run.

Texas Tech-Oklahoma Preview: Keys to victory for Oklahoma

1 — Special frieking teams

Oklahoma has been plagued by special teams breakdowns all season long. They had Texas dead to rights with a 14-3 lead and all of the momentum before Jordan Shipley gave the Longhorns a glimmer of hope with a kickoff return for a TD. Oklahoma scored on the very next possession and could have been up 21-3. Instead, it was 21-10, and Texas got it back to 21-20 before the half. The Sooners dominated the first half in every way, but led by only one at the break. Take away the special teams failure and the game could have had a drastically different outcome.

Oklahoma almost always jumps out and has their offense clicking early. Texas Tech’s D has played well this year, but the offenses in the Big 12 this year, and Oklahoma specifically, have proven they could rack up points with 15 defenders on the field. If Oklahoma gets up early at home, they need to maintain their lead. If a special teams play can spark a struggling Red Raiders team, it could be deja vu all over again for Oklahoma in a big game at home.

2 — Sam Bradford needs to be better than Graham Harrell

In each of the key Big 12 games this year, the quarterback who has played better has been on the winning team. Colt McCoy outdueled Sam Bradford in Dallas, and Texas won. Graham Harrell made one more play that Colt McCoy in Lubbock, and Texas Tech won. Graham Harrell was better than Zack Robinson, Colt McCoy was better than Chase Daniel, and so on it goes.

Sam Bradford’s statistics are incredible. But the one whisper I continuously hear from people who watch the Big 12 closely is that Sam Bradford, while he has the prototypical body and arm of an NFL quarterback, lacks the moxie and winning ability of Colt McCoy and Graham Harrell. This game will be Sam Bradford’s chance to prove that he is a legit Heisman contender and that he can lead a team to victory in a hue game. He failed against Texas, but Oklahoma needs him to be better than the de facto Heisman front-runner right now, Graham Harrell. And part of Sam Bradford being able to do this will be the ability of his offensive line to protect him adequately.

3 — Bob Stoops needs to be better than Mike Leach

Last week, Texas Tech kicked the snot out of Oklahoma State because Mike Leach had his team mentally, emotionally, and tactically more prepared to play than Mike Gundy did. Oklahoma State inexplicably did not use Dez Bryant correctly, and their defense had no answer for Texas Tech. The defense part is not so egregious, because no defense can stop Texas Tech.

But no defense has been able to stop Oklahoma either. And while Texas Tech possesses one of the better defense’s Oklahoma has faced all year, they shouldn’t be able to contain Sam Bradford and the balanced attack of the Sooners — if Bob Stoops doesn’t screw it up, that is. His offense has been superb all year, but coaches sometimes outthink themselves and try to do “special” things in big games. I think this is what has made Mike Leach such a great coach: Texas Tech does what it does and it doesn’t seem to change from the preseason to regular season. They just execute and understand their identity.

Bob Stoops, however, does not have the reputation of a great big game coach; and I think part of the reason why is that he makes the same mistake other coaches make by not staying committed to doing the things they do well. Stoops and the Oklahoma coaches need to let Sam Bradford run the show and not outthink themselves. You know that Mike Leach will do so for Graham Harrell, which is why Graham Harrell has been so good in key spots.

Texas Tech-Oklahoma Prediction

I was really leaning towards picking Oklahoma when I began writing this. They are at home, Texas Tech has to be emotionally drained from the last two weeks, and Oklahoma’s offense is, overall, every bit as good as Texas Tech’s.

But there are two key differences between Texas Tech and Oklahoma: Graham Harrell-Mike Leach and Sam Bradford-Bob Stoops.

Graham Harrell has proven that he is clutch this season, and that he is the type of zone where he believes that he can make every play. Sam Bradford couldn’t do this in his biggest test of the season against Texas. And despite Bob Stoops longer and more decorated coaching resume, I actually trust Mike Leach more in a big game to have his team ready to play, and to not lose its identity. Bob Stoops and Sam Bradford can change my mind with a win Saturday night, but I’m not ready to bank my credibility as a prognosticator on it.

The Sooners are favored by somewhere around 6, but I’m taking the Red Raiders outright (and, like I said, the over if it’s anywhere under 100).

Texas Tech 56 – Oklahoma 52 in an another 2008 Big 12 instant classic.

[tags]texas tech red raiders, oklahoma sooners, college football, big 12[/tags]