A sports blog by and for Midwest Sports Fans
Week Six saw relatively few big fantasy performances, and with some potent offenses among the six teams on bye in Week Seven (Buffalo, Cincinnati, New England, New York Giants, Philadelphia, and San Francisco), that may well repeat itself. The lack of reliable options at some positions, coupled with the bye week crunch, will surely send many owners back to the waiver wire where they will find some intriguing options, particularly at wide receiver.
Every year there is a player who emerges late in the season to propel a mediocre team to fantasy football championship around the world…
Hey, remember Jerome Harrison? You probably do if you had him on your fantasy team… I sure as hell do seeing as he single-handedly knocked me out of the playoffs last year.
So maybe you just snuck into the playoffs or you’re a good team who happens to have some brutal match-ups (i.e. Cedric Benson against the Steelers) – well you’re in luck because you have a Choice – crash out the playoffs in a blaze of glory or make the only logical Choice there is – add Tashard.
We have now had three weeks of the 2009 fantasy football season and everyone should have a decent idea of what kind of team they have.
I’m in six leagues and am at least 2-1 in five of them, so I’m feeling pretty good.
But the equations change a little bit this week as the bye week rotations begin.
This week, Arizona, Carolina, Philadelphia, and Atlanta are all on byes. This means that teams with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, DeAngelo Williams, Desean Jackson, and Tony Gonzalez, among many others, have to find productive fill-ins to keep them competitive in Week 4.
And that’s what we’re going to look at this morning.
So far, my start em, sit em picks have worked out a lot better than my sleeper picks on a weekly basis (Byron Leftwich last week, ’nuff said). In reality, though, Weeks 1-3 are really like the preseason when it comes to waiver wire trolling in the 50% -or-less category.
Most teams, if they drafted at least semi-competently, should not have been digging too far down the wire to plug any holes yet.
It’s a different ballgame now, with each team needing to find bye week replacements. This morning, I will attempt to identify players at each primary fantasy position (no kickers…not now, not ever) who have favorable matchups in Week 4 and could do some damage.
Here we go:
Editor’s Note: AJ Kaufman’s weekly MNF coverage on MSF is sponsored by Sadler’s Smokehouse, a producer of premium pit smoked meats that are best described by Sadler’s slogan: Legendary since 1948.
Sadler’s premium meats are perfect for tailgating on Saturday, for grilling out at home on Sunday, or for when you are hosting a group of friends, or even just the family, on Monday night.
With a variety of delicious choices (beef, pork, ribs, turkey, brisket, and more) and availability at grocery stores throughout the U.S., Sadler’s meats are the tasty, convenient choice when you want to watch the big game and eat well while you’re doing it.
Panthers-Cowboys MNF Preview Podcast presented by Sadler’s
(FYI…audio player may take a second or two to load)
MNF Preview Podcast: Cowboys-Panthers
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Though it may seem silly and emotional, in Dallas, hope turned to despair from week one to two.
However, after a closer look, it is a very good sign for your offense when you are playing one of the top rated defenses in the conference, your quarterback plays one of the worst games of his career, and you still manage 31 points.
These results convey two important points: (1) that your offense is balanced, and (2) that your offensive line is getting the job done.
It should come as no surprise that given the production of said offensive line, the Cowboys running game is firing on all cylinders as Marion Barber and Felix Jones represent arguably the best 1-2 running back punch in the NFC, if not the NFL. Barber is averaging more than six yards per carry in 2009. Unfortunately for Cowboys fans, Barber is still questionable for Monday with a quad injury.
Fortunately for ‘Boys fans though, his backup, Tashard Choice, is no slouch, and should pick up the slack nicely if pressed into a more prominent role in the offense. Last year, Choice put together a string of three excellent games against Pittsburgh, New York, and Baltimore. Therefore, he should serve solidly in a time-share with Jones.
Expect Mr. Jones to maintain his role as the change of pace and 3rd down back with Choice claiming the “workhorse” duties. The duo should come up big against a Panthers defense that has an injury riddled front-line and has given up over 150 rushing yards in each of their first two games.
As for Romo, odds are he’ll be fine. The bigger issue is the uncertainty over a reliable third option for the Cowboys’ receiving game (after Jason Witten and Roy Williams). Patrick Crayton seems destined to be nothing more that a slot receiver, leaving Miles Austin in the driver’s seat to run away with second wideout duties. His talent and big play ability has left Jerry Jones watering at the mouth, but Austin has yet to consistently manifest that talent into reality.
It is a very bad sign for your secondary when Eli Manning, Mario Manningham, and Steve Smith look like the second coming of the Three Amigos. That said, I think the Cowboys will be fine defensively, so long as they abandon the experiment to rotate Orlando Scandrick (who was repeatedly burned by Manningham) and Mike Jenkins at the corner, and it seems like Wade Phillips has already started to move in that direction.
Panthers fans can take some solace in the fact that Jake Delhomme, coming off two straight awful performances that led to major criticism, wasn’t nearly as bad last week against Atlanta; but that being said, his 308 passing yards shed far too positive a light on his actual performance. This simply isn’t the Delhomme of five years ago, and the Panthers have to be second guessing the heck out of themselves for his exorbitant contract extension this past off-season.
Though he indicated he “felt good out there,” Jake was nearly an early disaster. Though he began the game 4-4 for 54 yards, he could have thrown an early interception when he inexplicably tossed a weak underhand pass, which was dropped by a Falcons defender. If Delhomme would have thrown a pick there, things probably would have snowballed on him again, as they would have been in another big early hole.
So, though it’s not outrageous to muse that the 34 year-old is on the downward arc of his career, the Panthers do indeed have a dangerous rushing attack with DeAngelo Williams and 22 year-old Jonathan Stewart that will make things significantly easier for Mr. Delhomme at times.
All that being said, I just don’t see how the Panthers stop the Cowboys’ rushing attack, especially with the season ending ankle injury to defensive tackle Louis Leonard, one of the team’s primary run stuffers. This is yet another hindrance to a defensive line already crippled by injuries.
Ultimately, I just don’t see the Panthers as being able to stop the Cowboys’ ground game without bringing a safety in the box, and in doing so, they will open up the passing attack for Tony Romo, who should have a good bounce back game. Dallas needs this win, and it’s highly likely they’ll get it, perhaps easily.
Cowboys-Panthers Prediction and Spread Pick: Cowboys do cover the large spread.
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* – Felix Jones photo credit: Dallas Observer Sportatorium
* – Jake Delhomme photo credit: Snort Report
Pro Football Insight is back again with our Week 3 waiver wire steals and sleepers.
If you caught last week’s waiver wire steals column, you benefitted from picking up Todd Heap and from a quality performance off the waiver wire in the Atlanta Falcons Defense.
Here is a quick teaser of this week’s predictions, and then a link to this week’s complete set of waiver wire steals.
I will start by saying that if anyone is calling Steve Smith or Mario Manningham a sleeper or waiver wire pick up, they are definitely not going out on a limb. These two are no-brainers to get on your roster if available, and are worthy of starts if you do not have a quality #1 receiver.
I was going to call Manningham a waiver wire steal last week, but as a Wolverines fan, I avoid picking from my heart. With that in mind, I did pick him up for last week in every league I’m…I just did not start him. Enough small talk, onto this week’s injury and/or poor draft pick fillers:
1. Tashard Choice – RB – Dallas Cowboys
If you own Marion Barber and did not draft Felix Jones, Choice will get carries in Barber’s absence. As Jerod updated earlier today here on MSF, reports out of Dallas are saying that Barber will most likely miss Monday’s game against Carolina. You still want to check the injury reports heading into Sunday, but that’s the latest as of right now.
As for Choice, no he will not put up Barber numbers, but he will produce points in a tandem with Felix Jones. Tashard Choice is a solid substitute for Barber and is a solid flex-level play who could produce RB#2-like numbers.
Update: Definitely keep your eye on Marion Barber’s status. The latest update, at least according to ESPN, is that Barber received treatment yesterday and hopes to play Monday night. Looks like this will be a Sunday morning decision and you’ll just have to base your thoughts on Barber’s status for Monday night — which will obviously influence Choice’s value — on as much info as you have.
There are still four more solid gold Week 3 waiver wire steals awaiting you at ProFootballInsight.net. Follow the link for the rest the Week 3 waiver wire steals.
And, as always, feel free to use the comment section here or at PFI to ask your fantasy football lineup question.
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* – Tashard Choice photo credit: Tom Fox / DMN Photo Staff via Denton Record-Chronicle
Starting at 9:00 CT (10:00 ET), Josh and I will be hosting another Sunday morning Start Em, Sit Em Live Chat over at the Fantasy Sports Blog. Get your last minute lineup questions and sleeper recommendations there.
It’s been a little while since we’ve done a Fantasy Football Sleeper Focus, so I figured I’d fire one up real quick and help you make those uber-important Week 14 lineup decisions. You may be in the playoffs already, or fighting for that final spot, but everyone can use a sleeper or some last-minute advice.
Sleeper: Tashard Choice – Dallas Cowboys
As anyone who reads this site knows, I love Tashard Choice. And I am excited that the little-engine-that-could from Georgia Tech will get a chance to start this week with Marion Barber out of the lineup. However, I am not so excited that Tashard Choice will be facing Pittsburgh’s ridiculously awesome defense. The Steelers are #1 across the board in every defensive category, and don’t forget that the Cowboys have been fattening up recently on subpar teams like Seattle and San Francisco.
Tashard Choice is starting, so that makes him a bona fide sleeper pick. However, his matchup makes him only a #2 running back at best, and that’s if you’re desperate. Start Choice at flex if you don’t have a better option and hope that he can sneak his way into the endzone. He’ll be grinding out every yard against Pittsburgh.
Sleeper: Peyton Hillis – Denver Broncos
With 4 touchdowns in the last three weeks, it might something of a cop out to call Peyton Hillis a sleeper anymore. He is just another in a long line of Denver running backs who come out of the blue to determine fantasy football championships. With that said, if the other owners in your league are brain dead and Peyton Hillis is still available, run to the waiver wire and pick him up. NOW! Last week he carried 22 times for 129 yards and a TD against a pretty good Jets defense. What more proof do you need?
This week, Denver plays Kansas City. If you are wondering if that’s a good matchup, it is. Kansas City is ranked 32nd in the NFL in total defense and Denver seems to be to clicking based on their performance last week. Hillis could put up #1 running back numbers this week.
Or get yanked by Mike Shanahan in the first quarter…because Mike Shanahan is the devil.
Sleepers: Amani Toomer and Domenik Hixon – New York Giants
Plaxico Burress is out — you may have heard — and someone has to catch passes from Eli Manning. Amani Toomer had 5 catches for 85 yards and a TD last week. Domenik Hixon had 5 catches for 71 yards. Look for similar numbers for each this week as Eli Manning spreads it around to compensate for the loss of Burress. The Giants will still rely heavily on their ground game, so Toomer and Hixon are still only #3 WRs or flex options, but they could provide solid production in those slots. Temper your expectations a bit, though, as the Giants face a tough Eagles defense.
Sleeper: Le’Ron McClain – Baltimore Ravens
Let’s put it this way: I have Le’Ron McClain in the same league that I have Reggie Bush in, and I have much more confidence in McClain right now than Reggie Bush. The bruiser out of Alabama has totaled 88 and 86 yards the last two weeks and punched in a score last week against Cincinnati. This week, the Ravens take on Washington Monday night. The Redskins D is 6th in the league in total defense, but Baltimore’s offense has been on an absolute roll the past few weeks. They won’t have the field day they had last week, but it will be a more a smash-mouth, grind-it-out type game and I think it could bode well for McClain getting some goal line carries. Plus, he’ll be playing on Monday night — which means no matter how far you’re down after Sunday, you’ll still have a glimmer of hope that you can come back!
Sleeper: Kevin Boss – New York Giants
Yes, I realize this is another player from the Giants that is not a running back. But if you need a tight end for Week 14 (like all you Kellen Winslow owners out there), you could do a lot worse than Kevin Boss. He should prove to be a top-10 TE this week, and could start seeing some of the red zone opportunities that used to go to Plaxico Burress.
(Update: After going through my own rosters, I’m adding another sleeper: Ted Ginn Jr.)
Sleeper: Ted Ginn Jr. – Miami Dolphins
With Greg Camarillo on Injured Reserve, Chad Pennington has lost his most reliable receiver. And as crazy as it is to believe, the Dolphins actually control their own destiny in the AFC East. Sure, they’d have to win out to have true “control”, but that’s pretty sweet after they went 1-15 last year. This means that they have to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers, and do it often. Ted Ginn Jr. is the most explosive playmakers the Dolphins have.
If your league counts return yards, then Ginn is a very solid start as a #3 WR or flex. If you are weak at WR, Ginn could potentially have a solid day against Buffalo even as a #2 WR. Buffalo gives up over 200 yards per game through the air, and they have not exactly been lighting the world on fire lately. The positive for a Ginn owner is that while he may only have 4-5 receptions, he will get 10-15 touches minimum when you add in his returns and reverses. He’s starting for me at a #3 WR slot, and he could produce solid numbers for you too, and is probably sitting out there on waivers.
Well there is a nice, tidy list of guys who might possibly still be on waivers — or who are sitting on your bench because you can’t decide what to do with them. I think all of them could have some value in Week 14, depending on how your roster shapes up.
If you have any specific questions, submit them in the comments below so everyone can benefit from the answer. I will try to answer as many of them as possible leading up to kickoff tomorrow. And don’t forget about the Week 14 Start Em, Sit Em Chat going on over at the Fantasy Sports Blog. You can submit your last minute questions there too.
Good luck in Week 14!
(Week 15 Update, Sunday morning: Marion Barber’s status for the Giants game is still up in the air. According to a report I just read on ProFootballTalk.com, John Clayton from ESPN is reporting that if Barber does indeed play he will not have a significant role. Monitor this one up to the kickoff of the early games, or up until tonight if you own Tashard Choice as well.)
Allow me the indulgence of a little bit of foreshadowing: prepare to get goosebumps. Trust me.
Now, a quick injury update on Dallas Cowboys running back Marion Barber as we head into this weekend’s titanic matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 14, a huge week for many fantasy football owners as well. According to the Dallas Morning News, as well as 1310 The Ticket in Dallas, Marion Barber is currently a dreaded “game-time decision.”
(Update 12/6, 5:00 PM: The game-time decision has been made. Marion Barber did not accompany the Cowboys to Pittsburgh. Tashard Choice will start.)
Other than “Dr. James Andrews” is there a worse phrase to hear in relation to one of your fantasy football players than “ga
me-time decision?” Well, perhaps “playing Pittsburgh’s defense,” but we’ll get to that in a second.
Here is the quote from Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips referring to the Marion Barber injury:
“We were assuming that Marion would play, but it’s a little more doubtful right now, so we’ll see [today],” coach Wade Phillips said.
Marion Barber is suffering from an injury to his toe, and according to the Morning News the Cowboys training staff is trying to find the right kind of shoe to give him support that may allow him to take the field Sunday. For now, they are not committing one way or the other, and the really frustrating part for fantasy owners is that it is a 4:00 game. If the decision drags past 12:00, setting rosters could be tricky.
Here’s something that is not tricky, however: don’t play running backs, or any offensive players for that matter, against the Steelers Defense. Why? They are first in the league in rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed, total yards allowed, and scoring defense. That’s domination. As a Browns fan it pains me to give the Steelers props like that, but they deserve it. Their defense has been outstanding.
Who would fill in for Marion Barber if he is unable to go? The first choice would obviously be Wade Phillips, in a Jerome Bettis-type battering ram role; but Phillips is what you may call “portly” and has lost some of the speed and explosiveness that once defined him as a…okay, never mind. With Felix Jones out for the season, rookie Tashard Choice would be the choice to fill in for Marion Barber.
For the season, Tashard Choice has carried the ball 30 times at a 4.9 yard per carry clip. Not too shabby in limited action. He was a very productive runner in college and I know, living in Dallas, that the people down here are really excited about his potential. He is smaller, and has much more an Emmitt Smith-style than the punishing style of Marion Barber, but Choice has always produced when given the chance. If Barber is out for any extended period of time, Tashard Choice could be a solid #2 RB or flex player.
Plus, and here comes the goosbumps part I alluded to earlier, Tashard Choice gave one of the most passionate and inspiring pre-game speeches by a player that I have ever heard while at Georgia Tech. Many of you may have seen this video before, some of you may not. We bring you the goods either way:
I was thinking about just ending this post right there with that video, but now I’ve decided that I’M GONNA WRITE, ‘TILL I CAN’T WRITE NO MO’! I’M GONNA GET UP — AND WRITE AGAIN!
Tashard Choice became my new personal hero the first time I saw that speech. He rocks, and if Marion Barber is out this weekend I hope Choice has a good game against Pittsburgh. I realize that Pittsburgh’s D is outstanding, but would you really question Tashard Choice’s ability to get the job done? Watch that video again and tell me you wouldn’t start him.
That’s what I thought. Everything or nothing.
Work be damned, I’m wrapping this up now so I can go watch Remember the Titans and Hoosiers.
(Update: After I posted this item, I emailed Florio over at PFT to give him the Barber update — which he probably knew anyway — and to remind him about the Tashard Choice speech. At 1:00 later that afternoon, this story was posted on PFT. They didn’t link to us, or mention us, and maybe they had been planning the story and the inclusion of the Choice video anyway, but we’ll take it as a little homage to MSF. Hey, we’re just a newbie on the block trying to gain some credibility in the blogging world, and don’t do any primary source reporting like they do. And Lord knows I’ve gotten enough story ideas from them, and linked out to them a lot, so if we helped alert them to this and that led to more people seeing Tashard Choice’s awesome speech, we’ll take some pride in that. If our tip meant nothing, we’ll just chalk it up to coincidence and keep plugging away trying to grow our little site here. For what it’s worth, they posted about the same story today, updating Barber’s status, and actually embedded the video this time. If you’re an NFL fan, this is one of the best sites out there. After you opt-in to our RSS feed below (if you so choose), make sure to subscribe to theirs as well. You will be a much more informed NFL fan.)
