Throughout 2011, I posted  monthly updates on these “predictions,” so as to capriciously praise or condemn myself. Today, on the 1st of October with the playoffs upon us, I offer the final “results.”

Underrated

Miguel Cabrera

The definition of a superstar. He totally lived up to my remarks, and more importantly, still didn’t get enough national love  in 2011.

The 28 year-old won the batting title with a robust .344 average, finished 2nd in walks, OPS and Top 10 in every other relevant offensive category.  As a bonus, in this era of Ryan Howard, Drew Stubbs, Curtis Granderson and Adam Dunn, only 89 strikeouts in 161 games.

That’s what makes a great ballplayer: consistently good all around. And still, few notice him amongst the Jose Bautistas, Paul Konerkos, Adrian Gonzalezes, Mark Teixeiras, Robinson Canos and Jacoby Ellsburys of the AL world who garner our attention. Already off to a hot start in the playoffs, Cabrera’s a legit MVP contender again. In fact, he’d get my vote.

{Grade on my prediction: A+ }

Paul Konerko

.300, 30+ HRs, 100 + RBIs. Period. Need more be said? (And that included a rough September where he struggled alongside the whole team’s concurrent collapse.)

Pauly continues to be under-appreciated, and though I dislike the ChiSox, I will keep praising Paul  — because there are people who actually think Ryan Howard is a better player, despite Konerko being better in nearly every category, and by a long shot in some.

Howard will never get 2000 hits, and 400 HRs is questionable. Konerko, just three years older than the Philly first baseman, has the former, and will achieve the latter in April 2012. And unlike Howard and most others, the White Sox first baseman somehow gets better with age.  He was in the AL Top 10 in nearly all major offensive categories.

{Grade: A}

Adam Dunn:

I often compare the media love for Ryan Howard to Adam Dunn, as I feel they’re similar players (same age, same style, etc), but if I’m to call out Ryan, Adam needs the same treatment.

You can’t spin this anymore now than you could at any juncture this season: he was a disaster! 

Adam hit .159 in 122 games this season, with just 11 homers and 42 RBIs. He would have probably led the league in strikeouts (177) but was benched most of the final six weeks. Dunn was a startling 6 for 94 versus left-handed pitching in 2011. Yes, that’s a .064 clip! {Grade: F}

Ryan Zimmerman and Shin Soo-Choo missed too much time for evaluation in 2011. Zimmerman hit near.300, and Choo, in half a season marred by various ailments, managed eight homers and 36 RBIs overall, with a .340 batting average in limited time post All Star break.

Overrated:

Ryan Howard:

The “centerpiece” of my article was the Phillies’ big first baseman, who’s been at the top of my list (and emails, texts and tweets) of overhyped ballplayers for years. I saw absolutely nothing in 2011 to change my mind; in fact, no matter what ESPN or the media says or ignores, I’m more confident in my views than ever.

There was a devastating critique of Howard’s absurd $25 million/year salary and declining stats in Yahoo Sports back in July, hitting every angle statistically and factually. While some commenters applauded, most ignored the content and chose to call the writer names and use profanity. It was classic to read his backers getting so flummoxed.

Then, in mid-August, Baseball Reference exposed his supporters’ one reasonable claim: RBIs. They showed that given Ryan’s unmatched opportunities with men on base, about 20 other guys (including JJ Hardy and Michael Morse) would’ve had as many or more RBIs than Howard (who had 95 then, and only knocked in 21 during the season’s final six weeks). He truly lives a blessed life, having nearly 20 at bats per season with the bases loaded.

Though his RBI and home run numbers remained relatively high, vital categories (and overall power categories like slugging, OPS and OBP) continue to fall precipitously, while Howard’s strikeouts remained 2nd in the National League (a hideous 172 in 152 games).

Ryan hit just THREE homers off a lefty in 170 at bats this season, and no clutch hits that anyone can recall.

Howard’s 2011 OPS — the most relevant category for a power guy — was an abysmal 19th in the NL. Despite his power numbers, he was also still a distant 19th in Slugging, while his On Base Percentage didn’t even crack the top 30 on the Senior Circuit. Very telling.

Unless you’re looking for a player on the back-end of his career; less durable than in the past; is quite replaceable; who doesn’t get on base enough; whiffs a lot; is slow; suspect with the glove, but will get you 30 HRs with 100 RBIs and a .250 average, he’s not your man.

And despite a homer in Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday — that his desperate fans and obsequious media treated with more excitement than George Washington crossing the Delaware — look for the decline to continue in 2012 and beyond — as his salary rises to nearly the top of baseball. What a bad joke.

(I won’t get into past postseason futility since I covered it last fall and, starting late in last night’s game, you’re seeing it again. In the 2011 playoffs, Howard’s had a cumulative 13 men on base in his first six at bats. Considering that, his six RBIs is understandable.)

{Grade on my prediction that Howard is overrated: A}

Carlos Pena:

The Cubs first baseman hit 28 bombs, but that’s around his career average. He still finished at his customary .225 and a putrid .133 off lefties; yet this overpaid 33-year old is a lifetime .239 hitter, so what do we expect? Losing player, losing teams. He doesn’t strikeout quite as much as Howard or Dunn (still had 161 in 153 games though), but that proves little. He’s still vastly overrated, and his signing didn’t help the Cubs one iota.

{Grade: A}

BJ Upton:

Upton rightly doesn’t get the love he once received, but still, when you think of the Rays, after Longoria, BJ’s name comes up. Why?  You like .240 hitters who strikeout WAY too much (5th in AL, 161 in 153 games), with mediocre power and bad attitudes? He had a nice September, and Tampa will need him in October, but until his average improves…

{Grade: A-}

Jeff Francoeur:

Jeff’s finished at .285/20/87, which is mighty impressive. He was part of the best defensive outfield in baseball this year — in terms of throwing out baserunners (second best in MLB history).

He’s not an old player (27), so KC expected him to produce, which is why they extended him through 2013 . Coupled with Gordon, Cabrera, Hosmer and the rest of the young studs, he’ll be part of a playoff team in KC soon.

{Grade: C-}

Mark Reynolds:

His average was .221, which is apparently impressive for a guy coming off a .198 season. “Only” 196 whiffs in 155 games for a guy who punched out over 200 times each of the past three seasons. Reynolds did have 37 homers and 86 RBIs; however, the Orioles were one of baseball’s biggest disappointments in 2011, so I’m really not sure what he brought to Baltimore.

{Grade: B+}

So I’m looking at very decent grades for 2011…

Agree/disagree? Bring facts, not conjecture nor ad hominem attacks. Thanks.

The Rays have a juggernaut of momentum going their way as they closed the season with five straight wins to bamboozle a stunned Boston Red Sox team and storm into the playoffs. They set a record by being the first team to make the playoffs after heading into the final month 9 games out. Tampa posted a 32-17 record after Aug. 8, showing that their surge is for real.

The Texas Rangers, on the other hand, led the AL West for the majority of the season and just concluded the best season in franchise history with 96 wins.

From a historical standpoint, Texas holds a distinct advantage. These two teams faced each other last year in the playoffs with Texas coming out on top en route to their first World Series appearance. Texas won five of its nine meetings with the Rays this season, taking two of three in Arlington, while splitting six games at Tropicana Field.

The thing I most look forward to in this match-up are the pitching matches as these two teams rank 2nd and 3rd in pitching the AL. Since the MLB postseason often becomes a pitcher’s game, these two squads are built to go the distance.

Joe Madden dropped a starting rotation pipe bomb earlier this week with his decision to start rookie pitcher Matt Moore for Game 1. Moore has only pitched in 3 big league games in his career, only one of which was a start. Now, the kid (we are all older than him, if you aren’t, you should be doing your homework right now young man) is obviously going to be the next in a long line of fantastic young pitchers for Tampa, but wouldn’t the nerves of starting the first game of the postseason get to a 22-year-old?

His task will not be easy on Friday, as he goes up against not only a lethal Texas line-up, but he goes toe-to-toe with “The Straight-Edge Southpaw” C.J. Wilson. Wilson, in addition to being Texas’s clear ace, was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball this past season.

Rangers Ace C.J. Wilson, who will start Game 1

Game 2 will feature a very game Derek Holland facing “Big/Complete Game” James Shields. He and Ian Kennedy have really come up huge this season, like a pair of Roy Halladay impersonators. Shields always had the talent and the ability, but this season he has really turned the swag on to join David Price at the front of the rotation.

Holland, no slouch in his own right, also had a breakout season in Texas that went largely under the radar. The pitching complete match-ups are at end of this preview and show Holland’s record. Tell me you expected him to have a record that good. If you knew he went 16-5, you obviously had him on your fantasy team or are Nana Holland.

From there, the probable pitchers are me going with my gut on match-ups. Nothing has been announced, but with the likes of Price, Hellickson, Ogando, Lewis and Harrison all available, these two teams have way too many weapons to utilize.

For an offensive perspective, there is 100%, absolutely no question that Texas dominates. In fact, of all eight playoff teams, Texas boasts the most dangerous offense in my opinion.

Josh Hamilton (.298/.346/.536, 25HR, 94RBI), Adrian Beltre (.296/.331/.561, 32HR, 105RBI), Ian Kinsler (32HR, 30SB, 121Runs), Nelson Cruz (29HR, 87RBI), Michael Young (.338/.380/.474 106RBI) and Mike Napoli (.320/.414/.631, 30HR, 75RBI) read like a laundry list of hitters any other team in the league would want in their lineups. Can you believe Napoli was traded by both the Angels and the Blue Jays last offseason? Or that Texas nearly traded what they believed was a declining Michael Young? In both cases Texas benefited huge from other teams napping, as almost every member of the roster has had a big season.

By contrast, the Rays have focused on “The Extra 2%” (if you don’t get that, you need to read more. Great book), but coming into this year, their offense looked anemic compared not only to previous Rays teams, but most of the rest of the league.

Their one incoming ace-in-the-hole, Manny Ramirez, played five games before “retiring” due to failing another drug test. Things looked bleak. Tampa however was able to come up with offense when needed (unless Price was starting). Evan Longoria (31HR, 99RBI) led the majors in second-half RBI, including 2HR and 4RBI in Tampa’s now famous 8-7 victory vs. The Yankees to make the playoffs. They also received a shot in the arm from “The Desmond Jennings Experience” but that came at the expense of playing time for Twitter’s favorite son Sam Fuld.

To me, Tampa’s offense, which does not boast a .300 hitter besides a surprising Casey Kotchman, a single 100RBI guy ,and only three players with 20HR (Longoria, Zobrist and the crappy Upton brother) only has one statistic going it’s way: success.

Tampa is a true-life example of that awful sports cliché of a team that “finds a way to win”. A team comprised of spare parts and utility players should not be this successful, but they just are. Yes, the reason Tampa wins games is amazing pitching, but you won’t win any games 0-0.

Joe Madden has this successful team in the AL East playing like a National League team from the 1980s. Smallball, speed, and “clutch” performances. The only thing missing is Keith Hernandez’s glorious lipjacket and wide-spread cocaine use.

Now let’s point out the elephant in the room here: Joe Madden is a super genius. He’s counting cards or has a time machine or something. No manager in baseball always seems to make the right move like he does.

Wednesday’s game vs. the Yankees, while a thin slice of the season, is the prototypical example of his ability to manage. Not to mention his demeanor and coaching style has to be something special the way he always brings these rag-tag teams to victory. He could call for a triple play with 2 outs and somehow record baseball’s first 5 out inning.

At this point, I not only drink the Joe Madden Kool-Aid, I’m smashing through brick walls and saying, “OH YEAH!”

He is the intangible, the X-Factor and the reason why, despite equal pitching and an inferior offense, Tampa Bay will somehow beat Texas when they have no right to.

ALDS Prediction: Tampa Bay in 5 games

**********

Tampa Bay Rays v Texas Rangers ALDS TV Schedule and Pitching Matchups

TV Schedule

• TV Network: TBS (Game 2 on TNT taking the spot of WCW Saturday Night)
• Game 1: Friday, Sep. 30 at 5:07 p.m. ET @ Texas
• Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 1 at 7:07 p.m. ET @ Texas
• Game 3: Monday, Oct. 3 at 5:07 p.m. ET @ Tampa Bay
• Game 4: Tuesday Oct. 4 time TBA @ Tampa Bay
• Game 5: Thursday Oct. 6 time TBA @ Texas

Pitching Matchups

• Game 1: Matt Moore (1-0, 2.89 ERA) vs. CJ Wilson (16-7, 2.94)
• Game 2: James Shields (16-12, 2.82) vs. Derek Holland (16-5, 3.95)
• Game 3 (probable): David Price (12-13, 3.49) vs. Colby Lewis (14-10, 4.40
• Game 4 (probable): Jeremy Hellickson (13-10, 2.95) vs. Matt Harrison (14-9, 3.39)
• Game 5 (probable): James Shields (16-12, 2.82) vs. CJ Wilson (16-7, 2.94)

**********

* – C.J. Wilson photo credit: Sports And Meat
* – Joe Madden photo credit: cltampa.com

What a great, great night of baseball. Wow.

And for the record, my favorite part was the ending.

Sure, Shaughnessey was just saying what everyone else was thinking, but when your franchise has a history of curses and jinxes…you think it, don’t say it!

On Dan Johnson’s pinch hit home run in the 9th inning, which sent the Yankees-Rays game to extras, an uncoordinated and/or slow to react fan in the outfield took it in the worst possible spot.

Now, I’ll grant that it isn’t indisputable evidence that his twig n’ berries got clipped here, but let’s put it this way: the call on the field is a nut shot and there is not clear enough visual evidence to overturn.

Here also is an animated GIF of the Johnson-on-johnson crime, for no reason other than so I had an excuse to use that Johnson-on-johnson line:

GIF source: Imgur via Reddit

I’m going to assume that the fan in question here is a Yankees or Rays fan. If by some random chance it was a Tampa-area Red Sox fan who had wandered into the Trop to root against the Rays, this would have to go down as one of the most painful simultaneous double-nut shots in sports history. Red Sox fans can be an insufferable lot, but I wouldn’t wish that on anyone.

Take a look at the screenshot below and tell me what you see:

Yes, incredibly, both Wild Card races in both leagues are tied on the final day of the regular season, which sets up an absolutely epic set of games to pay attention to tonight. The word “epic” gets overused a lot on the web; not here.

Here are the particulars of the four big games being played today.

Boston at Baltimore

• Time: 7:00 ET
• TV: ESPN
• Pitching Matchup: Jon Lester v Alfredo Simon

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays

• Time: 7:00 ET
• TV: ESPN
• Pitching Matchup: TBA v David Price

Philadelphia at Atlanta

• Time: 7:00 ET
• TV: ESPN2
• Pitching Matchup: Joe Blanton v Tim Hudson

St. Louis at Houston

• Time: 8:00 ET
• TV: ESPN2
• Pitching Matchup: Chris Carpenter v Brett Myers

In terms of national coverage, all games are listed as being on ESPN or ESPN2, so I have to assume it will be regionally divvied up. Surely MLB Network will be following all four closely; that’s the channel that will be on at my house.

Now, you may be wondering what will happen if the standings remain tied at the end of today. Easy: there will be a play-in game to determine the Wild Card representative. And the schedule is already set for these games, should they occur:

AL Play-In Game*

• Location: Tampa Bay
• TV: ESPN
• Time: 4:07 ET

NL Play-In Game*

• Location: St. Louis
• TV: ESPN
• Time: 8:07 ET

* – if necessary (and first pitch times won’t change if there is only one play-in game and not two)

I have been relatively disengaged from baseball over the past few weeks with the beginning of football and the collapse of my thoroughly disappointing White Sox. Today will be nice a primer for the playoffs to get me re-amped up.

Remember all that talk about how there were no pennant races? Ha. At the time I suppose such talk was apt, but things can change quickly in baseball, as they did this year. What a day, and possibly two days, this will be.

Play ball!

The departure of several players to free agency, most notably Carl Crawford (Red Sox), Carlos Pena (Cubs), Rafael Soriano (Yankees), Joaquin Benoit (Tigers) and Matt Garza (Cubs), will make this season challenging for the Rays.

Will the Yankees or Red Sox reclaim the top spot in 2011?

Tampa Bay Rays

Several new players – Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Kyle Farnsworth and non-roster invitee Casey Kotchman, to name a few, will be counted on to continue the Rays’ success. But it’s Tampa’s starting rotation that’ll tell the story this year for the Rays. If they pitch as well as expected, the team will continue to succeed. David Price will get the opening day start, with James Shields, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, and Jeremy Hellickson finishing out the rotation.

Evan Longoria will start at third base, and will either bat in front of or behind Manny, whomever Joe Maddon feels will produce from those slots. Dan Johnson will be the primary starter at first base, with Damon and Kotchman possibly getting some starts. Ben Zobrist will be an everyday platoon player, getting starts in right field, at second base, and perhaps first base, where he’s seen action this spring.

Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac will get most of the playing time at shortstop and second base. John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach will probably split time behind the plate, as Maddon likes to play matchup on a regular basis. B.J. Upton, the starting center fielder, will look to put up better numbers, as he’s pain free for the first time in almost two years.

With the departure of Soriano and Benoit, it will be closer by committee on the Gulf Coast, with J.P. Howell (out indefinitely, shoulder surgery, possible May return), Kyle Farnsworth, Jake McGee, and non-roster invitee Juan Cruz the most likely candidates to finish the game.

Maddon is very optimistic about this up and coming season, as the new faces will present yet another challenge for the philosophical manager.

The Rays may not win the division, but they will give Boston and New York a run for their money, even with a payroll lower than it has been in the past three seasons.

Prediction: I see the Rays winning 90 plus games, and battling it out with either New York or Boston, for the Wild Card spot.

New York Yankees

The Yankees finished one game behind the Rays last season at 95-67. So what do the big money Yanks do? Sign Rafael Soriano and Russell Martin to hopefully get that game or two back this season.

Looking at the starting lineup, it is impossible to think the Yankees don’t make the playoffs. The team is loaded with All Stars C.C. Sabathia(’03, ’04, ’07, ’10), Phil Hughes (’10), Mark Teixeira(’05, ’09, ’10), Robinson Cano (’10), Derek Jeter(’98-02, ’04, ’06-10), Alex Rodriguez (’96-’98, ’00-08, ’10), Nick Swisher (’10), Curtis Granderson (’09), Jorge Posada(’01-’03, ’07), Russell Martin (’07-’ 08), Mariano Rivera (’97, ’99-01, ’02, ’04-06, ’08-’10) and Rafael Soriano (’10) to name a few.

I just about named an All Star for every spot in the lineup. Did I forget to mention Andruw Jones (’00, ’02-’03, ’05-’06), Bartolo Colon (’98, ’05) and Freddy Garcia (’01-’02). Mark Prior (’03) is another former All Star, who’s also a non-roster invitee with Colon and Garcia.

With all the talent the Yankees have, they still have to play baseball, which is a team game. Can manager Joe Girardi and pitching coach Larry Rothschild get the team to play as one? Can A.J. Burnett find his control? Will Derek Jeter have a better year, or will he continue to break down? Will A-Rod and Teixeira continue to produce? If the answer is yes to all these questions, the Yankees will win 100 games this year.

The Yankees will have hot streaks where they win 12 out of 15 games all year, but can they avoid the streaks the other way, i.e. losing 7 of 10?

Prediction: New York will be on top of the division all year, more than likely winning over 90 games this year, challenging Boston and Tampa Bay all summer. This is going to be an exciting race.

Boston Red Sox

The injury bug plagued the Red Sox last season, as Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Jacoby Ellsbury lost considerable playing time. Still, Boston finished the season at 89-73, only seven games behind the Rays.

In the off season the Red Sox acquired Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, which will help bolster an already potent offense. David Ortiz will have the pleasure of hitting in the middle of four great hitters, and Terry Francona will have an easy job filling out the batting order.

You could draw the names from a hat to put together this lineup. It could go like this: Scutaro, Pedroia, Crawford, Ortiz, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Drew, Saltalamacchia, Ellsbury. That’s just me —  and it was easy – but I know it will probably be totally different coming from Francona. Jed Lowrie will get some time at shortstop, Mike Cameron will be the fourth outfielder, and Jason Varitek will mentor and be backup to Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

The starting rotation will consist of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Bobby Jenks will pitch the eighth inning and Jonathan Papelbon will be the closer, looking to rebound from a disappointing 2010 season. Non-Roster invitee Andrew Miller, a southpaw, could get a spot in the bullpen.

The Red Sox have everything they need to win, again. Can they stay healthy, and will the talent on paper show up on the field? The AL East is a very tough division, and playing the Yankees and Rays, along with a better Oriole team will make it a tough task.

Prediction: I do see the Red Sox winning 90-95 games, which would put them fighting for the division, but more than likely battling it out with the Rays for the Wild Card spot.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays had a pretty good year last season, finishing at 85-77, eleven games out of first place. The Jays lost Vernon Wells to the Angels, and Lyle Overbay went to the Pirates. Rajai Davis came over from Oakland and Jaun Rivera joins Toronto from Los Angeles, while Travis Snider will get a chance to play everyday in right field.

The infield starters will be Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Yunel Escobar and Jose Bautista, who led the league in homeruns last season with 54. Edwin Encarnacion will DH and play some first base. J.P. Arencibia will get a majority of starts behind the dish, and should he falter Jose Molina will take over.

The starting rotation looks to be set with Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, Kyle Drabek and Jesse Litch. Marc Rzepczynski will be available if any of the five have injury issues. Frank Francisco, acquired from Texas, looks to have won the closer job. Octavio Dotel will be the set up man, unless Francisco doesn’t perform or is slowed by injury, at which time Dotelwill become the closer.

First year manager John Farrell, who spent the last four seasons as the Red Sox pitching coach, will bring a different kind of baseball north of the border. This being his first season, I see some growing pains headed their way. Farrell already knows the AL East is tough, and now he will experience it from a whole new angle.

Prediction: If the Jays can win 80 games this year, I would consider that a success. But Toronto will more than likely finish last in the division.

Baltimore Orioles

Buck Showalter took over the manager job on August 2nd last season, and the Orioles went 34-23 with him calling the shots, finishing last in the division at 66-96.

I think Baltimore will continue to improve, as they acquired Derek Lee, J.J. Hardy and Mark Reynolds to solidify the infield, and hopefully give the offense a jolt. Brian Roberts will play second base, and looks to stay healthy as neck and back issues allowed to play in only 59 games last season.

The outfield is set with Nick Markakis in right, Adam Jones in center, and Felix Pie in left. Nolan Reimold will be the fourth outfielder; Jake Fox, who can play catcher, first base and some outfield, and Cesar Izturis will fill the bench as backups; Vladimir Guerrero will be the primary DH, with Luke Scott getting some starts between DH and first base.

Matt Wieters will get most of the starts at catcher, and Craig Tatum could be his backup with a good spring. Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Brad Bergesen and Justin Duchscherer will fill the rotation, with Chris Tillman going to the minors unless an injury occurs. Kevin Gregg, who faltered last year, will be given a chance at closing again. Koji Uehara will be the setup man unless Gregg has issues again. Non-Roster invitees Mark Hendrickson, Brendan Harris, Nick Green and Randy Winn will get good looks in the spring.

All signs point to a better year for Baltimore. If the acquisitions of Lee, Reynolds, Guerrero and Hardy help the offense be more consistent, they’ll give the rest of the division fits, causing a log jam at the top of the AL East. The Orioles could be a surprise this year.

Prediction: I think they can win 8o plus games this year, which still only gets them out of the cellar in the East, finishing in fourth place.

(All rosters are taken from mlb.com active rosters, depth charts and non-roster invitee lists as of 03-20-11)

As someone who does not follow football until November, I am thrilled for October baseball in 2010.

The next few weeks, as always, will offer great drama, upsets, and the crowning of a champion who began their quest way back in February on the ball fields of Arizona or Florida.

While 2009 gave us two big market powers  in the World Series — after numerous stellar Octobers this decade of wild card championship teams (2002 Anaheim, 2003 Florida , 2004 Boston ) and/or Cinderella stories (2002 Anaheim, 2003 Florida, 2004 Boston, 2005 Chicago, 2006 St. Louis/Detroit, 2007 Colorado, 2008 Tampa Bay) – 2010 seems to promise more  upsets and unpredictability.

Today we look at the American League playoffs. Tomorrow, the Senior Circuit:

Yankees-Twins

A friend emailed me last week:

“I can’t believe the Twins are 3-16 in their last 19 playoff games. They just seem like they’ve been better than that. I guess the furious finishes the last couple of years had them spent for the playoffs. I love their chances this year especially if Texas knocks out the Yankees.”

Well, even though the Yankees faltered enough that they’ll actually play Minnesota (not Texas), 2010 is far different than any past playoff season for the Twins. Despite a sub-standard finish once they wrapped up the AL Central, I need not enumerate how much better and deeper this Twins team is. It starts with their home-field advantage in sold-out and soon-to-be-frigid Target Field, where they’re an AL best 53-28 at home regular season.

Last October, with a much inferior team versus a much better Yankee team — despite no rest after a Tuesday one-game playoff thriller and much else — Minnesota still could have won 2 of the 3 against New York.

This October, the Twins have some major upgrades, including:

THREE closers in Brian Fuentes from the left, with Matt Capps and Jon Rauch from the right; a healthy and solid Francisco Liriano;  a top-tier hurler in Carl Pavano; a much-improved Bryan Duensing, Delmon Young, Denard Span, Mike Cuddyer and Jason Kubel; the addition of veteran Orlando Hudson;  and a rookie stud named Danny Valencia who New Yorkers probably have never heard of.

Also, for a change, many of Minnesota’s best hitters come from the right-hand side: Valencia, Young, Cuddyer, etc. Oh, and these Twins also have some guy with 589 career dingers (a startling 25 this year, which leads the club) named Jim Thome.

One key to Minnesota’s success is that the “small market” Twins spent more on salary this year than ever before, and the fans responded by filling their new park out every night — breaking the club’s attendance record despite Target Field seating nearly 15,000 fewer fans than the Metrodome. This team has now made the playoffs six of the past nine seasons with a small budget due to excellent scouting and development, dispelling the old, inaccurate cliché that baseball teams can “buy success.”

With all the spending on additions this season though, I suppose it’s debatable whether they’re still “small market.” What is not debatable is that the Twins still overachieved in 2010, considering they lost their stand-out closer for the season before it even began, Joe Mauer missed nearly 30 games, and 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau has played in only 81 games, none since July 7 after suffering a concussion.

Despite losing 54 of their past 72 to New York, this year, like many, I feel that Minnesota wins at least one series. If they get Morneau back from post concussion symptoms, that can give them the extra gear they have lacked in years’ past. Morneau was out for the 2009 playoffs. Anyway, to reiterate,  Minnesota is simply not the same team as Octobers past, which I don’t expect fans of the Pinstripes to know since their vision gets blurry west of the Hudson River. Ron Gardenhire is the best skipper in baseball. Give him the Joe Torre Yankees and he’d win seven titles between 1996-2006, not four like Torre did.

As to the New York Yankees, despite losing players, lulls in the season, and subpar campaign from Teixeira, Rodriguez and Jeter, they’re still stacked. But the key, especially with AJ Burnett’s weak 2010 — 1-7 with a 6.61 ERA since Aug. 1, and the first Yankee pitcher to lose 15 games and have an ERA over 5 – is Andy Pettitte’s health and Phil Hughes’ effectiveness as a playoff starter. C.C. Sabathia will need to outduel Liriano in game one or the Yanks have issues.

As reported on MLB.com over the weekend, “No starter behind CC Sabathia can or should be trusted right now. And the man behind everyone — Mr. Automatic, Mariano Rivera — is struggling in a manner he rarely does, and at a time he never has.”

Indeed, Yankee starters have a putrid three wins since Sept. 3. Digest that for a moment. Then realize while all the other playoff teams dealt with injuries, aside from Pettitte, the Yanks were healthy. It’s undeniable that the Yanks are just not as good as last season. Lacking home field in their hitters’ paradise of a park will be a major factor hindering the Bronx Bombers.

If New York cannot beat the Pawtucket Red Sox in a key series – Boston started seven minor leaguers this weekend — how will they beat the the Twins?

Minnesota in 5. Many similarities between this and the 1997 ALDS where Cleveland took the Yanks in five.

Rangers-Rays

The Texas Rangers are the feel-good story of the postseason (along with the Reds in the NL.) Last I checked, they were a bankrupt organization that  still added key components in pursuit of their first October in over a decade. Cliff Lee, like in Philadelphia in 2008, came off a trade, was hot, then cooled, then hot into playoffs. As a Philly fan noted recently on this site, “Ranger fans will be very happy if this is a sequel.”

Michael Young, in his 11th campaign, finally will taste October baseball. Can the Rangers win a postseason series for the first time in franchise history? Believe it or don’t, every other current major league team has.

C.J. Wilson and Lee  back to back from the left-side, against the myriad lefties these Rays have, could be the difference.

While Tampa, New York and Minnesota were all pedestrian down the stretch, Texas played well despite major injuries: 15-9 since Sept. 8. Though that doesn’t always translate to success, it can’t hurt.

The Rays are an oddity. They knocked the Yankees from their perch, finished with the AL’s best record, and just one off the Phillies for best in baseball, yet they seem to have weaknesses in every area: young pitchers who’ve struggled at times; veterans like Carlos Pena who suddenly hit under .200 for an entire season; a nicked up Evan Longoria; one player who hit over .300 this season (Carl Crawford); and the worst home field “advantage” of any playoff team.

The Rays are also not exactly entering October baseball on a hot streak. Since clinching a postseason berth Tuesday, the Rays lost five of seven, only scoring nine runs in those contests. During those seven outing, they were shut out three times.

Yet the Rays still have home field throughout the AL playoffs, plenty of guys with experience from 2008, and a favorable matchup against the AL club with the worst record of any playoff team. Tampa Bay also has  a solid bullpen, a very good closer, depth, speed and much else.

If the Rangers steal one of the first two in Tampa — and I think they will — my gut says they finish off the Rays in Arlington, especially if Lee comes back on short rest. So…Rangers in 4.

In that time, a person forms an opinion about you based upon your appearance, body language, demeanor, mannerisms, and a veritable plethora of other factors, both conscious and unconscious. These initial impressions can be nearly impossible to reverse or undo, making these first encounters extremely important, as they set the tone for the all the relationships that follow.

First impressions also apply to the world of sports. An athlete being scouted can receive too much, or too little credit based on a five minute performance. For this reason, I am compelled to make this week’s player Chad Bradford. He is one of those players that almost never made it due to flaws in scouting. He also made me a fan after seeing only one pitch.

I have a long standing love affair with the utterly ridiculous. I eat cereal that should be served as dessert. My favorite TV show is the 1960′s Batman. But my biggest love are athletes that perform despite approaches that seem psychotic at best. And nobody embodies this like Chad Bradford.

Some would incorrectly call Bradford a side-arm pitcher. That does not do him justice. Bradford’s delivery begins not with a high leg kick, but a swivel of the hips, ending in an underhand delivery which occasionally results in his hitting the mound with his hand. His fastball is a paradox, usually topping out at around 84MPH, but he’s been incredibly effective over the span of his career. A career that almost never happened.

Bradford is not sexy. (Well, not to pitching scouts anyways. He’s really quite dashing, especially with that manly, lumberjack mustache) In fact, he was only scouted by one team throughout his high school and college career: Jerod’s beloved Chicago White Sox.

The Sox actually drafted him twice — both 1994 and 1996. He would make his “cup of coffee” debut in 1998, and was seen as the type of player who was not going to be more than a Quadruple A player. He didn’t have the pedigree of your prototypical major league pitcher.

Thankfully for Bradford, Billy Beane was in the process of “Moneyballing up” the Oakland A’s, and therefore saw just how good Bradford was, trading Miguel Olivo for him. Over the next four seasons, Bradford pitched 250 games with a 3.34ERA with an ERA+ of 133. This was thanks in large part to that zany delivery.

The reason his delivery is so effective is how it induces an extraordinarily high percentage of ground balls. In fact, Bradford routinely maintained a Ground Ball to Fly Ball Ratio of 70-80% and was in the top five every season from 2001-2008 in that category. In 515.2 career innings pitched, Bradford has only allowed 28 Home Runs (of which Carl Everett somehow has three and Manny Ramirez hit his 500th career dinger).

Bradford was traded by Oakland to the Boston Red Sox, and later signed with both the New York Mets and Baltimore Orioles, before being traded to Tampa Bay in 2008.

Tampa proceeded to make The World Series that season but Bradford was only used twice in the Series (he only gave up one measly hit). This lead to my yelling loudly as I watched Tampa Bay lose. To this day, I still think the Rays should always have brought in Bradford. The numbers back me up on this too. In 24 career postseason games, Bradford posted a sparkling0.39 ERA, allowing just one run.

Bradford spent most of last season injured and currently remains unsigned. Last I read, he had been thinking of retirement, which would be a shame. I firmly believe any team in the league could benefit from having him in their pen. Apparently I’m the only one.

Every HR Bradford has given up

Bradford invited to play himself in “Moneyball” movie

If you have any suggestions for future Obscure Players, drop them in the comments.

First, I gloat over the fact that my week 1 college football picks (exclusive to MSF) went 4-0 on Saturday with Virginia Tech pending on Monday.  Then I check the scores from late last night and I realize that LSU somehow failed to score a point in the entire second half against UNC’s JV defense and choked away the easiest of covers.

Needless to say, as a Duke fan (don’t tell anyone, I know most of you find that gross), I blame Roy Williams for this backdoor disgusting cover, and I now doubly hope that all the UNC suspensions are followed by probation and the death penalty.  In fact, I root for Craig James to show up as a consultant for UNC now that he has helped administer the execution of both the SMU football program and the career of Mike Leach.

The second thing I realize is that this is the last Sunday for approximately 20 weeks that won’t entail about 12 straight hours of NFL football.

The exception, of course, are the Sundays spent at an NFL stadium, which is more like a 30/70 split between NFL football and tailgating.  This brings a smile to my face.  Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for my wife.  As this fact has slowly dawned on her over the past few days, her facial expression has slowly morphed into the look one might get when they learn of a close relative’s death while waiting to see the dentist.  Part concern. Part fear. Part anger.  And all unbearable sadness.

So as I think through some nice things to do on this last Sunday or normalcy of 2010, I ponder all the things I could do as a token of my unyielding gratitude for her continuing to put up with me.  I could buy her a gift, like the fancy coffee maker or new tennis racket she has had her eye on.  I could opt for some quality time, perhaps a picnic with the family featuring some homemade delectables prepared by yours truly.  Or maybe just some flowers.

So what, you are wondering, did I decide to do?

Well, I decided to break down the baseball season as we move from the dog days of August down the home stretch.  First of all, you’re welcome.  Second of all, does anyone have a couch I could borrow for a couple of days until things cool down here?

Keep in mind, these are not all the answers of what will happen once October hits, but merely some things I believe will transpire based on what we know now.

One American League Pennant Race Left: AL Central

Let’s start with the American League.  There are five teams fighting for four spots, with New York, Tampa Bay, and Texas all but locked in.  Minnesota and Chicago are fighting it out for the American League Central to take the fourth spot.

I give Kenny Williams a lot of credit for continuing to do whatever he can to provide Ozzie Guillen the tools to get over the hump.  He got Jake Peavy a year ago when most thought he was overpriced and washed up.  He took Alex Rios when nobody wanted him and his bloated eight figure annual paycheck.  And he took Manny last week, because the conventional wisdom is that the skills have eroded enough that the circus sideshow is no longer worth it.

And you know what?  It should have worked.

The Pale Hose have put together a nice year while Detroit has underachieved more than Chone Figgins.  But, unfortunately for the South Siders, Minnesota just continues to defy the odds and win, win, win.

Let’s look at the facts:

• The Twins do not have a big market budget.
• They lost their premium stud closer for the season before it began.
• Joe Mauer, their best player, has had a year that makes him seem mortal.
• Justin Morneau has played in only 81 games, none since July 7 after suffering a concussion.
• Their starting rotation lacks a true ace, although Francisco Liriano is evolving into one.

But the Twins are the Twins.  They know how to win games.  Bill Smith and Terry Ryan have just done an incredible job keeping this team competitive for the last 10+ years with limited resources through great drafting, good player development, and wise, affordable signings.  Then when you throw Ron Gardenhire and his managing into the mix, you probably have the most competent front office/manager combination, and certainly the least heralded and most underrated.

Don’t get me wrong, I would love to see the White Sox playing into October as Ozzie Guillen is the best, most consistent sound byte in baseball since Joaquin Andujar (for example, “there is one word in America that says it all….You never know”).  However, with a 3.5 game lead with only 25 to go, I am giving the nod to the Twins.

Probable American League Playoff Matchups

Assuming the playoffs shape up as they appear now, you would have Yankees v. Rangers and Twins v. Devil Rays (I am sorry, but they will never be the Rays to me, sorry Dickie V).

Let’s start with the Rangers.  I declare them the new America’s Team, as they represent true America as a bankrupt organization that is somehow allowed to continue to add payroll to fund their pennant chase.  Charles Darwin is shaking his head disapprovingly somewhere.

But falling into the “karma is a bitch” category, they are playing their worst ball of the season and their star acquisition, Clfton Phifer Lee, has give up 4 earned runs or more in each of his last five starts, and six of seven overall, in which his ERA has ballooned from 2.40 to 3.37 (ouch). To top it off, he has been scratched from his next start with back problems (real ouch).  And their star position player, Josh Hamilton, is out with some severely bruised ribs.

The good news, Ranger fans, is that their losing is irrelevant.  They have the division wrapped up, and all they need to worry about is setting their rotation and getting everyone healthy and playing well for the playoffs.  In addition, any Phillies fan can tell you they have seen this Cliff Lee movie before.  Goes to a new team, great start, iffy stretch in August, then basically carries the team on his back in the playoffs.  Ranger fans will be very happy if this is a sequel.

The bad news is that they are likely to play the Yankees in the playoffs, that their rotation after Lee is talented but very green, and that my brother-in-law Ted is a huge Ranger fan, and I am pretty sure that he is actually jinxed.

The Yankees have the be considered the team to beat.  Their four man playoff rotation of Sabathia, Pettitte, Hughes, and Burnett is the best in the American League for sure.  Their offense features one of the most clutch players ever (Jeter), a 600-HR guy (A-Rod), potentially the most underrated player in the game (Cano), a gold glove first baseman with great power and plate discipline (Teixeira), and plenty of other legitimate weapons with experience, power and/or speed (Posada, Swisher, Gardner).  Oh, and they have the best closer maybe to ever play the game.

I would pick Texas with my heart, but New York should win this series.

In the other AL series,  I am going with the Twins.  I like Joe Maddon, but I think Gardenhire is better.  I like Longoria, and Carl Crawford is outstanding setting the table, but I think the Twins just have more desire, and I think Joe Mauer can carry this team on his back.  And I think Liriano is the best starting pitcher in the series (and he will be ion the hill in two of the 5 games, if it goes the distance).

This Twins team has been to the playoffs often in the past decade, but has not done a lot of damage once there because they play on all cylinders all year and there is no extra gear to accelerate to come playoff time.  This year, I just feel like it is their time to advance.  They will have home field, and they have been tough to beat in the new and beautiful Target Field.  And if (I know, it is a big if), they get Justin Morneau back from post concussion symptoms, that can give them the extra gear they have lacked in years’ past.

National League Playoff Outlook: Phillies Again?

In the National League, it is too tough to pick first round matchups because all the records are too close, both throughout the league and in the NL East (and now West) specifically).  I will say that it appears that the four playoff teams will be the Braves, Phillies, Reds, and I still think the Padres. Long current losing streak aside, the Pads have been the most consistent team in the NL all season long and I think they will regain enough form to hold off a Giants team that seems to have not quite enough down the stretch in recent years.

So without an ability to pick matchups, I can declare that there is no reason that the Phillies shouldn’t be the first team since the Cardinals over 60 years ago to represent the National League in the World Series three straight years.

The Phillies’ rotation is sick.  Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels is the best Big 3 of any of the NL playoff teams (and the Braves and Padres both have very solid starting pitching).  Offensively, they have fantastic weapons in Utley, Howard, Werth, Victorino, Rollins, Ibanez, and even Ruiz and his clutch hitting.  Contreras, Madson, and Lidge have been back to being unhittable over the past 4-6 weeks.  Their manager, while never being confused with someone who is strategic, or even knows how to spell strategic, understands what buttons to push on this team.  They are finally healthy for the first time all season.  And they have more playoff experience than anyone.  They have been here before and they know what it takes to win.

All that being said, I am just not feeling the Phillies this year.  This team, despite its myriad offensive weapons, has struggled mightily way too often this season.  They have struggled to score runs repeatedly (just ask Cole Hamels!!), and have had to win five different 1-0 games this season.  My thought is that in the playoffs, unless they can get more consistent hitting, they are going to put too much pressure on their tremendous pitching staff.  And at the end of the day, their margin for error will be small, probably smaller than it is fair to ask of any staff, even if the names are Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels.  Considering their rash of injuries, the Phillies have done a remarkable job getting into a position where they are the favorite to repeat and get to the Fall Classic for a third straight year, but they will fall short.  I just feel it.

So for now, I am saying the Twins and Yankees will meet in the ALCS, and that he Phillies will not win two playoff series and advance to the World Series.  To see how I feel the rest of the baseball playoffs will unfold, you will have top tune back in when it gets a little bit closer.

I would give you all the answers now, but I think I better go mow my lawn…

I do have some recommendations for the Major League Baseball, however (move the Astros to the AL West or simply abolish divisional play, lengthen round one of the postseason to best of seven, return to a balanced schedule…), but overall, I think the game is as good as ever. Attendance and pure human interest back that up, as 2010 itself has seen an unprecedented amount of excitement and history in just five short weeks:

We had a no hitter, a perfect game, a 20 inning classic, and last Friday, a 47 year old threw a two hit shutout the same night a 20 year-old had six RBI in his big league debut. Not bad.

Let’s look at the top “storylines” of the first one-fifth of the season:

1. Success of low-budget teams with even lower expectations

Every preseason ‘expert’ I read or heard picked the San Diego Padres (19-12) and Washington Nationals (18-14) to finish in the cellar of their division. And while, yes, it’s only mid-May, the Padres have been in first place most of the season, and the Nats, who now sit tied for second, will seemingly only get better when phenoms Stephen Strasburg and Indiana native Drew Storen are called up, perhaps sometime this summer.

Small or semi-small market clubs like Toronto, Oakland, Texas and Cincinnati also have winning records on May 11.

(The Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Rays, though expected to succeed by most, are also great for baseball. The former, in first place since day one, signed their hometown hero to a long-term deal and, just a few years removed from possible contraction, have a brand new ballpark sold out for the season.

The latter, playing with a small budget, are proving their 2008 AL Pennant was no fluke. They’ve even bettered the Yanks all season, remaining in first place with baseball’s best record.

I also don’t think too many folks are discouraged by the slow starts and/or underachieving in big markets like Boston, Los Angeles or the north side of Chicago.)

2. Young Pitching

Excluding the aforementioned Nats and Cuban prospect Aroldis Chapman of Cincinnati — rolling through AAA Louisville with an ERA under 3 — there are a myriad of pitchers in baseball (AL & NL) with miniscule ERAs, most of them under 27. There are also a ton of solid young hitting prospects. This is obviously GREAT for baseball.

(By contrast, only one player being on pace for 50 homeruns is also a good thing, in my view.)

3. Weather

Laugh all you want, but one of the most annoying and idiotic criticisms the media and general public throw out at baseball is “cold weather.” They complain about April games with typical April weather, and the “endless playoffs” (actually, the shortest postseason of any major sport — but who cares about facts?) stretching deep into October.

“Global Warming” discourse aside, baseball’s schedule has hardly changed in my lifetime. Nonetheless, April 2010 weather was as balmy and dry as it’s been in years. Very few rainouts, some cold, but surely not unbearable weather, and mostly charming nights throughout America’s ballparks.

It has been a good year. Even a humorous year.  So enjoy America’s pastime. I know I will continue to do so.

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* – Ryan Zimmerman photo credit: Virginia Virtucon

Fox will broadcast their usual Saturday afternoon games, TBS will pick up on Sundays, and for the most part, you can expect ESPN to have games on Sunday and Monday evenings. (Mid-week, you might look for your local team networks and eventually, on Thursdays, the MLB Network will be back for their second season, though the schedule has yet to be released).

The MLB national TV schedule, which is always subject to change, is at the end of this post below.

Before getting to that, we provide the 11 “best” games during the first half of the season – at least so far as I can surmise in March.

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11 Best Early Season MLB Games on National TV

These are listed chronologically, not from best to worst or vice versa.

1. Yankees-Red Sox, April 4, 8pm EDT, ESPN2:

A baseball tradition unlike any other (cue Masters music — it’s that time of year too after all) — and on opening night, no less. You’ll probably see Sabathia vs. Beckett, Lackey or Lester. No further elaboration necessary.

2. Mariners-Rangers, April 10, 3pm, FOX (Regional):

Two major divisional challenges to the perennial champion Angels meet on the first weekend of the new season. Five days after the opener, the Mariners will be set to throw Cliff Lee or Felix Hernandez for certain in second 2010 start.

3. Rays-Red Sox, April 18, 130pm, TBS:

I cannot imagine the Red Sox have forgotten the upstart Rays ending their quest for back-to-back titles in the 2008 ALCS. Boston will probably also remember bold spring training predictions from Evan Longoria. These two teams now chase the Yankees, so every time they meet, it’s important.

4 & 5. Yankees-Angels or Mariners-White Sox, April 24, 4pm, FOX (Regional):

The Yankees and Angels have a lot of postseason history, with the Yanks finally topping Anaheim in the 2009 ALCS after losing to them in the 2002 and 2005 LDS – as well as constantly throughout the regular season this past decade.

The Mariners and White Sox have excellent and deep starting staffs, and both teams can potentially do damage in the 2010 AL.

6. Angels-Red Sox, May 3, 7pm, ESPN:

Look at the Angels recent history with New York and flip it versus Boston, all the way to the Halos finally besting the Red Sox in the 2009 ALDS — after losing to them in the same round in 2004, 2007 and 2008. These teams nearly always play stellar games. Former Angel icon John Lackey now pitching for Boston will up the intensity.

7. Twins-Yankees, May 16, 1pm, TBS:

The Yanks have stomped out Minnesota’s postseason dreams multiple times in the 21st century, including again in 2009. This will be their first series meeting in 2010.

8. Red Sox-Phillies, May 23, 1pm, TBS:

A matchup of two of the past three world champions based in big markets. A great regional interleague battle between two teams who’d love to unseat the Yankees come October.

9. Cardinals-Cubs, May 30, 220pm, TBS:

This is the only series these bitter rivals face off prior to the All-Star break. Few disagree that they are the two best teams in the NL Central as we look toward the 2010 campaign.

10. Angels-Mariners, June 5, 4pm, FOX (Regional):

Arguably the two best teams in the AL West match-up in the northwest. Chone Figgins, who played his entire eight year career with Anaheim, goes up against his former franchise.

11. Dodgers-Red Sox, June 19, 4pm, FOX (Regional):

Manny returns to Boston. That should say it all. Other than that, a great Interleague matchup between two legendary coastal clubs that just might meet in the Fall Classic.

MLB National TV Schedule (FOX, ESPN, TBS)

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* – Jake Peavy photo credit: Viva la Vidro

Each team has endured a bumpy road since they met in the 2008 World Series and, while the Rays are climbing toward the top of the AL East, the Phillies’ grasp on the NL East is tenuous. What will happen this week at Tropicana field?

Let’s make some MLB predictions.

Tuesday, June 23, 7:08 p.m. ET
Jamie Moyer (4-6, 6.35) vs David Price (1-1, 3.46)
MLB betting lines: Phillies +155, Rays -175

Is it swan song time for Jamie Moyer? It’s been an amazing run, but he may finally be out of gas, as his 6.35 ERA suggests. However, I have a feeling he helps bust the Phillies out of their six-game skid tonight. He has a somewhat useful 5.40 ERA on the road – good enough with the Phillies bats behind you – and he handled the Rays in the deciding game of the World Series. In fact, he held Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena hitless.

David Price is a special pitcher, so it’s understandable that sportsbooks favor the Rays. However, while many fans love his 30 strikeouts in 26 innings, it’s easy to forget his 18 walks during that time span. That’s simply too high for a major league pitcher, and the Phillies will punish him if he doesn’t hit the plate.

Pick: Phillies

Wednesday, June 24, 7:08 p.m. ET
Joe Blanton (4-3, 5.28) vs Matt Garza (4-5, 3.83)
MLB betting lines: Phillies +145, Rays -165

Time for Tampa to strike back. The Rays have to feel confident sending promising youngster Matt Garza to the hill against the Phillies. He’s quickly establishing himself as a big-game pitcher, having allowed just seven earned runs in 33.2 innings in five starts against the Yankees and Red Sox. Joe Blanton must have nightmares about Tropicana field, as he has a 7.64 ERA there. Carlos Pena has sweet dreams about facing Blanton, hitting .571 off the portly hurler. You have to give the edge to the Rays here.

Pick: Rays

Thursday June 25, 7:08 p.m. ET
Antonio Bastardo (2-2, 5.21) vs Andy Sonnanstine (5-7, 6.60)
MLB betting lines: Not posted yet

Oh, boy. Looks like the home run derby starts early this year. Andy Sonnanstine has been a special kind of bad in 2009 – the kind that usually earns you a ticket to Class-AAA. He’s allowed at least one homer in eight straight starts and 14 in total over that span. Is there any way he can handle a prolific power-hitting team like Philly?

Antonio Bastardo has taken his lumps (though I assume his jersey sales remain strong – what’s the price per head on those at Citizens Bank Park?), but only at home. He’s 2-0 with a 2.45 road ERA in his young career and is a good bet to survive on Thursday.

Pick: Phillies

(Stay up to date with latest news on the World Series schedule at http://www.worldseries.com.)

Game 5 of the World Series between the Tampa Bay Rays and Philadelphia Phillies was suspended due to rain in Philadelphia before the bottom half of the 6th inning began.

The game is currently scheduled to resume Tuesday night at 8:00 and according to Commissioner Bud Selig will not be moved to Tampa Bay under any circumstances. Furthermore, regardless of what day the game is ultimately played, it will begin at 8:00 ET.

Tomorrow’s scheduled start time is obviously contingent on the weather. Click here to stay up to date on the latest Philadelphia area weather forecast. As of right now, according to the hour-by-hour forecast, it looks like rain is expected for tomorrow night as well. The 10-day forecast shows sunshine on Thursday.

As for the game, Carlos Pena came up with an RBI in the top of the 6th inning that pretty much bailed Major League Baseball out of a pretty embarrassing situation. Had BJ Upton not beaten out an infield single with 2 out and nobody, and had Pena not subsequently driven in the typing run, the Major League Baseball rulebook would not have allowed for the game to be suspended. The end result would have been a Philadelphia victory, and World Series championship, in the first rain-shortened game in Major League history.

Interestingly, the MLB rulebook was changed in 2007 to allow for suspended tie games in the World Series. Prior to 2007, the game would have been declared a tie and started over from the first inning. Jayson Stark and his crooked mustache do a great job of breaking the whole situation down in his Playoffs Blog on ESPN.com.

Another interesting note from the Stark blog: the Rays already checked out of their hotel rooms, thinking that they would be flying back to Tampa after the game. Apparently they were still scrambling for hotel rooms as of about 11:00pm because their original hotel rooms were booked.

What a wacky night in Philly. But thank goodness for Carlos Pena, because it would have been a real shame had the World Series ended with the score 2-1 because of the rain. Looks like the exorcism of the “devil” from the Rays’ name has paid dividends once again. Major League Baseball should definitely look into changing that rule. The mere chance that such a result could conceivably occur needs to be eliminated from the realm of possibility.

[tags]mlb, world series, game 5 suspended, tampa bay rays, philadelphia phillies[/tags]

Last night, after an hour and a half rain delay, the Philadelphia Phillies took advantage of the Tampa Bay Rays’ late-inning pitching mistakes to claim victory in Game 3 that ended at 1:47 am. The Phillies took a 2-1 advantage in the World Series. According to the SI.com account of the game, the Rays were also treated to the typically brotherly warm chilly reception given to visitors from the notorious Philadelphia fans.

Game 4 is scheduled for tonight, and the NFL does not have a Sunday Night Football game scheduled to accommodate the World Series. According to Weather.com, the projected forecast around Citizens Bank Park is clear for the entire evening. So the game should start on time, giving more people a chance to watch the finish, which many fans (including me), were not able to stay up and do last night.

The pitching matchup for tonight’s World Series Game 4, scheduled to begin at 8:00 on Fox, is as follows:

Tampa Bay Rays: Andy Sonnanstine (13-9), 4.38 ERA during the regular season

Andy Sonnanstine has only faced one batter currently on the Philadelphia Phillies roster: Matt Stairs; and Stairs did have good success in his 12 ABs versus Sonnanstine, going 4-12 with a HR.

Philadelphia Phillies: Joe Blanton (9-12), 4.69 ERA during the regular season

Joe Blanton has had pitched against all of the Rays primary hitters, as he only came over from Oakland this season. Carl Crawford is 7-22 lifetime against Blanton, while Carlos Pena is 4-7 with two bases on balls. This season, Blanton started once against the Rays and went 6 innings while given up four earned runs. He did pitched well at Citizens Bank Park after joining the Phillies, going 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA in 38 innings and 7 starts. In the three seasons prior to 2008, the Rays hit .315 off of Joe Blanton as a team.

It is hard to pick against the Philadelphia Phillies at home, even though I’d like to see the Rays even up the series; but I don’t see it happening. The Phillies’ offense appears to be waking up, and the Rays might have been a little unnerved by the nastiness at Citizens Bank Park last night. Joe Blanton has pitched well at home during his time as a Philly, and this will be the most difficult start of Andy Sonnanstine’s young career — and it comes in a pretty difficult venue to play in as a visitor. The Rays have had success against Joe Blanton, so I think both offenses will have success. But the Rays’ bullpen proved to be leaky last night, while the Phillies have Brad Lidge at the end of the game ready to shut it down.

My prediction: Philadelphia Phillies 8 | Tampa Bay Rays 6

Check out our World Series Preview for the rest of the World Series schedule, as well as the projected pitching matchups.

[tags]world series, tampa bay rays, philadelphia phillies, mlb[/tags]

No, neither of the Chicago teams that we were rooting for here at Midwest Sports Fans made the World Series. But still, as baseball fans, most of us will be taking an interest in the World Series.

I think that Boston-LA would have made for, at least on paper, better storylines and drama; but a Tampa Bay-Philadelphia World Series definitely features two exciting teams with great young players, and it features the best and most positive story in Major League Baseball since all the steroids madness started: the improbable run of the young, perennially down-trodden Tampa Bay Rays to the World Series.

The World Series follows the 2-3-2 format at all of the games are, of course, televised on Fox (Joe Buck! Tim McCarver!) and while MLB.com currently lists the Rays’ pitching rotation as TBD (as of this posting), ESPN.com at least made an educated guess. You may want to check these on a daily basis though, as the Rays getting stretched to 7 games by the Red Sox may necessitate Joe Maddon switching things up a bit.

Here is the schedule:

Game 1 — Wed, October 22nd, 8:00 ET — Philadelphia at Tampa Bay | Cole Hamels v Scott Kazmir

Game 2 — Thu, October 23rd, 8:00 ET — Philadelphia at Tampa Bay | Brett Myers v James Shields

Game 3 — Sat, October 25th, 8:00 ET — Tampa Bay at Philadelphia | Matt Garza v Jaime Moyer

Game 4 — Sun, October 26th, 8:00 ET — Tampa Bay at Philadelphia | Andy Sonnanstine v Joe Blanton

Game 5* — Mon, October 27th, 8:00 ET — Tampa Bay at Philadelphia | Cole Hamels v Scott Kazmir (projected)

Game 6* — Wed, October 29th, 8:00 ET — Philadelphia at Tampa Bay | Brett Myers v James Shields (projected)

Game 7* — Thu, October 30th, 8:00 ET — Philadelphia at Tampa Bay | Matt Garza v Jaime Moyer (projected)

* – if necessary

As far as predictions go, both teams are pretty significant rolls heading into the series. Tampa Bay has been on a magical roll all season long; and as with the White Sox in 2005 I just think that Tampa Bay is destiny’s darling this year.

I was surprised that they were able to beat the Red Sox in Game 7, and I think they will ultimately take the World Series in either Game 6 or Game 7 at Tropicana Field in front of some very deserving home fans. This is based on nothing more than a gut feeling, and in knowing that the Rays now have David Price at the end of games to ensure that Dan Wheeler doesn’t piss away a 9th inning lead.

All in all, it should be a great World Series (despite Joe Buck and Tim McCarver).

What is your prediction?

[tags]world series, mlb, philadelphia phillies, tampa bay rays[/tags]