Nothing serious happened beyond some jawing, but it definitely carried over into the game. Despite Kansas running out to an early win, the game was chippy throughout.

Since it’s a slow early session of games, here is the video in case you didn’t see it:

———-

Coach Arbuckle, what do you say?

It’s okay coach. You’ve been up by 20 all game. And no signs of Faroukmanesh!

So once the games start, head on over here and join us for the most riveting, irreverent, humorous and occasionally insightful basketball commentary you will find anywhere. At least, that’s the plan.

To set the stage, here is the TV schedule for tonight, plus links to our previews of the four games to be played tonight.

Sweet 16 Games on Friday, March 25th

Southwest Region:

• 7:27 ET: #1 Kansas v #12 Richmond on TBS
• 9:57 ET: #10 Florida State v #11 VCU on TBS
• Southwest Regional games will be played in San Antonio at the Alamo Dome.
• The announcers will be Marv Albert and Steve Kerr with Craig Sager
  

East Region:

• 7:15 ET: #2 North Carolina v #11 Marquette on CBS
• 9:45 ET: #1 Ohio State v #4 Kentucky on CBS
• East Regional games will be played in Newark at the Prudential Center.
  
• The announcers will be Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg with Tracy Wolfson

I might be a little bit late tonight, depending on traffic, but everything will kick off right around 7:00 ET. Should be a fun night of basketball!

***********

On one line is Virginia Commonwealth University, a team that was so uneven during the regular season that they were nothing more than a “First Four” team in this year’s tournament. Yet, despite the outrage over their selection, VCU stays standing.

Florida State garnered a 10 seed despite suffering a late season injury to their best player. Undeterred, the Seminoles have followed the lead of the nation’s best defense to the Tournament’s second weekend.

Who will win? The Sports Muse analyzes.

Sweet 16: VCU v Florida State Game Info:

• Date: Friday, March 25th
• Tip Time: 9:57 ET
• TV: TBS
• Announcers: Marv Albert and Steve Kerr
• Location and Arena: San Antonio, TX at Alamo Dome
• Point Spread: FSU -4
• Over-Under: 131

Legend has it that in December of 1981, the phone rang in the home of Jay Bilas’ parents.  The caller, an assistant with one of the schools recruiting their son, asked if Mrs. Bilas, from California, had heard of Appalachian State?  When Mrs. Bilas responded “no”, the caller said “Well, they beat Duke last night.”

Nobody would be surprised if a similar call were made on January 3^rd, 2011, when Florida State lost to Auburn, a team ranked 215^th by Ken Pomeroy (Appalachian St. finished 209^th this year in case you were wondering!!).

The difference between the two situations is that Duke was awful that year.  They were 10-17 and Bilas’ class later helped resurrect a once proud program.  The Auburn game for FSU clearly seems to be an anomaly.  This team has been strong and getting stronger, and is playing its best ball of the season as it fights to keep those Cinderella slippers firmly planted.

Despite playing well for the last few weeks without him, getting Chris Singleton back for the Tourney has been the straw to stir the Seminoles’ drink.  This team relies on stifling (really, this is not just hyperbole) defense to claw out hard fought, physical battles, and after dispatching of a finesse team in Notre Dame, survives and continues to dream of a magical run to the Final 4.

And not everyone should be completely surprised by the Seminole run.  As I said in my ACC review on 1/27, other than Duke and UNC, “the other team most likely to make a dent in March is Florida State, who plays hard nosed defense and half court offense that is a strong formula for winning in the tournament.”

Trivia: Who is Dr. Richard L. Sander?  Hint: He knows how to identify strong basketball leaders.

Sander is the outgoing AD at Virginia Commonwealth who has been responsible for hiring, in rapid fire succession, Jeff Capel, Anthony Grant, and now Shaka Smart as VCU’s last three head basketball coaches. That should get him invited to the hoops-savvy AD convention along with the guys from Xavier, Butler, and Tulsa (don’t forget they had Nolan Richardson, Tubby Smith, and Bill Self).

Smart is a master motivator that turned down three Ivy League schools to attend Kenyon College.  After losing four of their last five down the stretch in the regular season in the underrated Colonial Athletic Conference, they avenged two of those losses in the conference tourney before losing in the final and squeaking out one of the final at-large bids.  The controversy around their selection was huge, as all of the ESPN experts bashed the choice of the Rams.  All they did in response was win three games in five days against USC, Georgetown, and Purdue, all in double digit fashion.

So who gets to keep dancing when the clock strikes midnight this Friday?

Well, at least neither of these teams has to do what #1 overall seed Ohio State might and beat the four winningest programs in NCAA basketball history (Kentucky, North Carolina, Kansas, and Duke) to cut down the nets in Houston! [Editor's note: after last night's Duke loss, the Buckeyes no longer have to worry about this.]

Both teams are going to struggle scoring the ball.  Don’t let VCU’s 94-point outburst against Purdue’s normally staunch defense fool you.  The fact of the matter is that even that offensive explosion barely got VCU into the top 100 (#99) in points per game at about 71 per game.  When you combine that with Florida State’s sensational defense, #2 in the country in points per possession, combined with being the 13th best rebounding in the country, it is going to be a challenge for VCU to score the basketball.

Florida State does not figure to have a much easier time of it.  They average only 69 points per game and are not ranked in the top 200 in offensive efficiency.  So despite VCU’s relatively poor defense which is average on its best day, FSU does not have the scoring prowess to be able to take full advantage.

VCU is led by a feisty point guard in Joey Rodriguez and a nice balanced offense, led by a 1-2 scoring punch of Jamie Skeen and Brad Burgess.  Skeen should be familiar to Florida State and vice versa as he played his first two years at Wake Forest (averaging about 20 minutes per game) before transferring up to his new home in Richmond.

FSU is led by Chris Singleton, a defensive stud and team leader who also fills it up to the tune of 14 points and 7 boards a night.  But they have a nice cohesive group of complimentary players led by Derwin Kitchen and Deividas Dulkeys.  It is a testament to the brand of team ball that this group plays that they played very competitive basketball when they lost Singleton, their heart and soul and leading scorer and rebounder, for six games down the stretch.

The big advantage that VCU has is that they tend to take care of the ball much better than the Seminoles.  FSU turns the ball over on a whopping 5% more of its possessions (19% to 14%) than the Rams.

Florida State should neutralize that advantage with one of their own on the glass.

I consider coaching to be a wash.  I think Shaka Smart is a savvy young coach who has done a nice job, but is still relatively inexperienced as a head man.  Leonard Hamilton teaches good defense but is a mediocre strategist, but he has loads of experience at both the college and NBA levels.

At the end of the day, at the risk of sounding like a cliché, I think you have to look at the individual matchups.  The one guy on the court, if he is playing well and can stay out of foul trouble, that should be the difference maker is Chris Singleton.  He is the only legitimate NBA prospect on the floor in this one, and he can put the Seminoles on his shoulders in crunch time to make the one play to put his team on his back.

• Florida State-VCU Prediction: Florida State 65 – VCU 61
• Florida State-VCU Spread Pick: Push (VCU +4)
• Florida State-VCU Over-Under Pick: Under

Something interesting to think about: Wouldn’t it be interesting if, after the game, Smart and Jeff Capel switched gigs, with Smart backfilling Capel at Oklahoma and Capel getting his old job back in Richmond.

Follow The Sports Muse on Twitter @TheSportsMuse

So once the games start, head on over here and join us for the most riveting, irreverent, humorous and occasionally insightful basketball commentary you will find anywhere. I promise. (But I haven’t signed a letter of intent, so don’t hold me to it!)

To set the stage, here is the TV schedule for tonight, plus links to our previews of the four games to be played tonight.

Southeast Region:

• 7:27 ET: #2 Florida v #3 BYU on TBS
• 9:57 ET: #4 Wisconsin v #8 Butler on TBS
• Southeast Regional games will be played in New Orleans at New Orleans Arena.
  
• The announcers will be Gus Johnson, Len Elmore, and Reggie Miller with Marty Snider
  

West Region:

• 7:15 ET: #2 San Diego State v #3 UCONN on CBS
• 9:45 ET: #1 Duke v #5 Arizona on CBS
• West Regional games will be played in Anaheim in the Honda Center.
  
• The announcers will be Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery with Leslie Visser

Not sure when the other dudes are showing up, but I’ll probably be here around 7:00 ET to start the chatting festivities. See you then.

**********

Team A has much more of an inside presence on both ends than Team B…so it will be a tough matchup for B.

Team A has nobody that can guard Player X on Team B…so it will be a tough matchup for A.

Many times, we line up the teams, compare individual players, maybe look at the bench and the coach, and come away with a good synopsis of what is likely to happen.

Then, there are the games like this year’s Sweet 16 matchup between Wisconsin and Butler.

Sweet 16: #4 Wisconsin v #8 Butler (Southeast Region)

• Wisconsin-Butler Date: Thursday, March 24th
• Wisconsin-Butler Tip Time: 9:57 ET
• Wisconsin-Butler Location: New Orleans
• Wisconsin-Butler Announcers: Gus Johnson, Len Elmore, and Reggie Miller with Marty Snider
• Wisconsin-Butler Spread: Wisconsin -4
• Wisconsin-Butler Over-Under: 123.5
• RazorGator: Wisconsin-Butler Sweet 16 Tickets – ($20 off on orders of $200 or more at RazorGator.com. Use code ORDR20RG.)
• Vivid Seats: Wisconsin-Butler Sweet 16 Tickets

Both of these teams are perfect examples of the classic “whole is greater than the sum of their parts” ballclub. While really trying to decide the winner of this game, it would be easy to get bogged down in the stats (below) or the individual matchups – most of which are surprisingly fantastic and which we will delve into shortly

Wisconsin-Butler Statistical Analysis

Statistical breakdown via ESPN Bracket Predictor.

Wisconsin-Butler Star Matchup Analysis

Shelvin Mack vs. Jordan Taylor

Both of these players lead their teams in similar ways. They are both kind of the “silent-assassin” type, but they each have the flair for the dramatic. If you’re reading this, you most likely saw “Mack the Knife” light up Pitt for 30 points, including 7 of 12 from distance. If you then stayed up and watched the Wisconsin-KState game, you may have been less impressed by Jordan Taylor.

Don’t be.

While he struggled from the floor (only finishing 2 of 16 from the field) and was lit up on the defensive end by Jacob Pullen, he still came up with the play of the game. In the closing seconds, Pullen came around a screen and rose for what would have been his 41st points of the game, only to be met in mid-air by Jordan Taylor and have the ball blocked as it left his hand.

For anyone that has watched the Big Ten all year, it was fitting that the Badgers’ most important player came up with the biggest play of the game, in spite of all the troubles that he had.

This Mack-Taylor matchup is about as close to being a wash as is possible. Mack is a little better shooter, Taylor is probably the better penetrator and passer. Both guys can and will make big plays in crunch time.

If forced to choose, I would lean Butler’s way because of Mack’s tournament experience…but it’s definitely not enough of a lean to make a game decision.

Matt Howard vs. Jon Leuer

Leuer by far has more pro potential. He looks smoother with the basketball in his hands, his post moves are a little more refined, and his jump shot more fluid.

But Howard, the awkward kid from Connersville, IN, just keeps getting it done.

To be honest, the most important part of this matchup may just be who stays out of foul trouble. In all likelihood, Leuer will usually be matched up against Butler center Andrew Smith, but Leuer and Howard are still the most important post player for each team. Howard has racked up at least four fouls in twelve games this year and fouled out of four of them. Leuer has only received four fouls six times and has yet to foul out.

From the eye test, Leuer blows Howard away, but the matchup will be much closer than it looks at first glance. I would give the edge to Wisconsin because of the foul trouble potential, but don’t be surprised if Howard wins the matchup if he ends up staying on the floor.

Wisconsin-Butler Difference Makers on Each Side

You could go down the list comparing starters, role players, etc. and end up frustrating yourself to no end. The reality is that in this matchup, it probably won’t come down to individual players.

Really, in order to pick this game, you have to trust your own basketball experience.

This may be a complete cop-out (especially from an article that is supposed to be picking the winner), but let’s just look at this game from both sides: The Butler Way, and the Wisconsin Way.

Butler has three distinct advantages going into this game that give them an edge in the matchup.

3 Reasons Butler Will Win

1.  Ronald Nored

Maybe you haven’t been watching Butler all year, but if you have, you know that he’s the real leader of their team. Not only that, he might be the best all-around defender in the nation.

A quick look at his stat line tells you almost nothing about him besides the fact that he can’t shoot (which really…he CAN’T shoot). 5.5 points, 2.6 assists, 3.1 rebounds, and 1.3 steals. Not much to look at.

But just ask Ashton Gibbs, a guy averaging 17 points a game in the VAUNTED BIG EAST about Nored’s defense. Gibbs was only able to even attempt 7 shots as he finished the game with 11 points…2 in the second half. Nored truly is a coach’s dream. He gets lower than anyone I have ever seen on defense, and his strides are so small and quick that his man never gets a chance to set up his move.

Nored will be the key to the Mack-Taylor matchup, because while Taylor will most likely have to wear himself out guarding Mack (like he did against Pullen with little success), Nored will make Taylor work just as hard on the offensive end. If Wisconsin needs Taylor to play another full 40 minutes, this will be a huge edge for Butler.

2.  Overall Defense

There really is no way to adequately put Butler’s defense into print. Let’s just say this: last March, when Butler made their run, I taped every single one of their games and watched them over and over for one reason – their defensive rotation. It really is a work of art.

This team plays man-to-man defense against better athletes every game and still routinely holds its opponents under 60. No metric can really effectively measure it – Once Butler got all of their players back from injury this year, the same smothering defense returned – just like no metric could predict that they would outrebound the best rebounding team in the country while their two best big men were in trouble the entire second half.

If you have been watching the games, you have seen them hold better athletes to well-below their normal scoring output. Against Wisconsin, they will actually be playing against athletes that are their relative equal. I shudder to think of what they could do to a team that only scored 33 points a week and a half ago.

3.  Brad Stevens

This weekend, Rick Pitino was on TBS with the panel trying not to punch Charles Barkley for making fun of “The Itty Bitty East.” When he finally got the chance to speak, Pitino said the following:

“If Brad Stevens is the future of coaching in college basketball, the sport is in a good place.”

Well said Coach. I couldn’t put it any better.

On the other hand, Wisconsin owns a few advantages of their own in this matchup.

3 Reasons Wisconsin Will Win

1.  Mike Bruesewitz

Wisconsin has a super sub of their own, and he provides a number of emotional intangibles. Everybody loves it when the lanky red-head hits a three. He’s almost like the revolutionary Matt Bonner (besides the fact that he plays nothing like Matt Bonner).

To be honest, Bruesewitz is the one player on the floor that Butler kind of has a hard time matching up against. At 6 foot 6 with long arms, he will be a tough matchup for Mack, Vanzant, Hahn, or anyone else that Butler has on the floor. Past that, if he gets just one jumper to fall, his team will ride the momentum as far as it can.

If I was Butler, I would be very worried about the big red-head. If he gets going, they could be in for a long night.

2.  Overall Offense

I know I haven’t thrown a lot of stats at you, but here is one that is just unbelievable: the Badgers are SECOND in the entire nation in points per possession and FIRST in turnover %. It’s quite rare for one team to rank in the top 30 of two separate offensive categories…and they rank in the top two of arguably the two most important offensive categories.

A lot of people hate Bo Ryan. And I admit, his teams often play a style of basketball that is borderline unwatchable (especially to an NBA fan like myself). But guess what? His teams win games. Lots of them. Because they just execute on offense.

You will not see any ridiculous pull-up 20-footers with 23 seconds left on the shot clock while his team holds an 8 point lead.

(Yeah, I’m talking to you, Jimmer. You are awesome…but unbelievably dumb and borderline selfish at times. Maybe it’s the Honor Code…maybe it’s your way of rebelling…whatever it is, it’s going to kill your team. Write it down).

If Wisconsin gets a 5 or 6 point lead at any point in the second half, be prepared for them to take the air out of the ball…and frustrate Butler to no end.

3.  Bo Ryan

If everything in the above section didn’t convince you that he’s an elite coach, just try these stats on for size:

• Ryan is one of only 17 active division one coaches with 500 victories and his winning percentage in that span is second only to Roy Williams.
• Ryan’s winning percentage, .711 (101-41) in Big Ten games is the best of any Big Ten coach in history, surpassing both Bob Knight (353-151, .700) and Tom Izzo’s (168-72, .700) percentage.
• This season, Ryan tied legendary Indiana coach Branch McCracken as the second-fastest coach in conference history to record 100 Big Ten wins, accomplishing this milestone in 140 games. Only Indiana coach Bob Knight reached that plateau sooner (131 games).
• He is 11-8 in the NCAA Tournament and has never missed the tourney while at Wisconsin.

All of that to say, when we talk about the best coaches in college basketball, old Bo often gets unfairly left out.

Wisconsin-Butler Prediction

So who wins the game?

Again, this matchup comes back to you. I gave you three reasons for each team to feel confident, but you will have to decide for yourself. Maybe you like the big red head. Or maybe you like Ronald Nored more. You have to base the decision on what YOU know and believe about basketball.

Me? It’s close, but not that close.

I remember watching this Wisconsin team last year in the tournament. As soon as they got down, they faded into obscurity. That doesn’t happen to this Butler team. That’s what most impressed me Saturday against Pitt. As soon as Pitt reclaimed the lead in the second half, everyone (especially the announcers) assumed that they would cruise to victory. But this Butler team is just too tough. Mack will make a play. Howard will make a play. Vanzant will make a play. Nored will make a play. And when it’s none of them, Andrew Smith is laying the ball in softly with 2 seconds left.

Expect more of the same on Thursday.

Vegas expects it to be close, and it will be, but free throws at the end will give the edge to the Bulldogs.

• Wisconsin-Butler Prediction: Butler 62, Wisconsin 53.
• Wisconsin-Butler Spread Pick: Butler +4
• Wisconsin-Butler Over-Under Pick: Under

With the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 coming this weekend, and the intensity and stakes increasing, we need Gus now more than ever – plus it’s the last weekend you’ll get to hear him calling college basketball this year.

So here are the games Gus is announcing this weekend, plus a bonus video from Funny or Die called “Great Moments in History with Gus Johnson.” It’s predictably outstanding.

Gus Johnson Announcing Schedule for Sweet 16 and Elite 8

Sweet 16 Games on Thursday, March 24th:

• During the Sweet 16 (and I assume for Elite 8 as well) Gus is paired with his usual partner Len Elmore as well as Reggie Miller.
• Games televised on TBS
• 7:27 ET: #2 Florida v #3 BYU
• 9:57 ET: #4 Wisconsin v #8 Butler

Elite 8 Game on Saturday, March 26th:

• Time TBA: Florida/BYU Winner v Wisconsin/Butler Winner

And now, as promised, great moments in history with Gus:

Jim Calhoun and his Big East Tournament champion Huskies take on Steve Fisher and his #2 seeded San Diego State Aztecs. There will be plenty of athleticism to go around in this one, plus two guys with very bright futures at the next level: Kemba Walker and Kawhi Leonard.

Sweet 16: Connecticut v San Diego State

• Date: Thursday, March 24th
• Time: 7:15 ET
• TV: CBS
• Announcers: Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery
• Location and Arena: Anaheim, CA at The Honda Center
• Point Spread: Pick ‘em
• Over-Under: 128.5

Statistical breakdown via ESPN Bracket Predictor:

Connecticut-San Diego State Analysis and Prediction

I underestimated Connecticut coming into this tournament. They were just 9-9 in the Big East during the regular season, and I was not sure that their sterling performance in the Big East tournament was anything more than just a hot week. And, truth be told, I’m still not sure exactly what Connecticut is after following that great 5-day run up with wins over Bucknell and Cincinnati.

Here is what I do know about Connecticut: Kemba Walker is outstanding. He can get his shot almost anytime he wants it, and his presence – and the defensive attention he demands – frees up other people on the floor. The Huskies score 1.07 points per possession, which is a solid number, in large part because of their catalyst.

For San Diego State, it’s all about defense. The Aztecs were one of the best defensive teams in the country this year, holding opponents to fewer than .9 points per possession and to an outstanding effective field goal percentage of 43.8%. Now, obviously they did not play a schedule as tough as UCONN’s, but the schedule SDSU played is not as light as you might think. They beat fellow Sweet 16 team BYU multiple times, and the Mountain West Conference is much better than people give it credit for.

I will readily admit that I have not watched these two teams play much. I caught some of Connecticut in the Big East Tournament and I watched San Diego State play Temple. When you look at their body of work this season, it is hard to know just how representative, if at all, those games were of who these two teams are. So I don’t feel comfortable writing out a long, wordy analysis because, well, I just do not have that much to say.

But here is what I know. When I look to make a pick between two teams I don’t know much about, I usually look at the following criteria:

• Who is better on defense? San Diego State.
• Who has the best player? Connecticut.
• Who has the best coach? Toss up. Jim Calhoun is outstanding, but don’t discount Steve Fisher’s ability to get his team playing loosely and confidently come tourney time. Remember, he’s coached in three national championship games.

Well crap. It comes out at 1-1-1, which really doesn’t help me pick!

I guess for me this game comes down to gut feel. When I originally did my bracket predictions, I had San Diego State in the Final 4. I would revise that now, with Kyrie Irving back for Duke, but I still think the Aztecs are underrated and have what it takes to get to Houston. Connecticut is definitely on a roll, but I think San Diego State will present a better, more athletic defense than I’ve seen in a while – yes, even considering the Big East Tournament.

This one will definitely be a close one, and a UCONN victory would not shock me in the least, but I’m sticking with Steve Fisher and the Aztecs.

• San Diego State-UCONN Prediction: San Diego State 65 – UCONN 62
• San Diego State-UCONN Spread Pick: San Diego State (pick ‘em)
• San Diego State-UCONN Over-Under: Under

The #2 seed North Carolina faces one of the two remaining Big East teams, #11 seed Marquette. The Tar Heels are the favorite, but in this preview I’ll explain why there is legitimacy to the growing buzz that Marquette could pull off another upset.

Sweet 16: North Carolina v Marquette Game Info

• Date: Friday, March 25th
• Tip Time: 7:15 ET
• Arena and Location: The Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey
• TV: CBS
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Point Spread: North Carolina -4.5
• Over-Under: 150

North Carolina and Marquette: How They Got Here

The North Carolina Tar Heels have done a great job of improving during the season this year, taking a talented but young team that struggled in non-conference play and winning the ACC’s regular season outright. Roy Williams learned from adversity last year and did a better job of coaxing growth out of this year’s squad that he was able to do with last year’s mess.

UNC has improved due to a number of factors.  As Dennis Green would appreciate, it turns out that Harrison Barnes was who we thought he was, not the player who struggled out of the gate.

In addition, Kendall Marshall is going to be an absolutely elite point guard at the college level.  His vision is exemplary, his mistakes few.  His 24 assists while only turning the ball over six times during the first two tournament games are simply phenomenal, especially for a Freshman.

Finally, the Heels are an absolute load down low, with John Henson and Tyler Zeller providing a potent if not imposing 1-2 punch down low.

You could see this improvement coming from mid-season onwards, as I noted in my January 27^th post regarding the ACC:

(Other than Duke), North Carolina is the most likely candidate to get to the Sweet 16 or beyond.  They have loads of talent, and with Kendall Marshall supplanting Larry Drew II at the point guard spot (which was long overdue), they can get the consistency they need to be a winning team.  If they can figure out ways to open up Harrison Barnes and get him producing up to his talent level, this team can be nasty by March.

Marquette, on the other hand, is an under the radar team that embodies the personality of its previously underrated coach Buzz Williams.  The man who replaced Tom Crean and kept this program moving on without missing a beat has a tremendous will to win. His team embodies this spirit and almost always finds a way to compete.

Despite being 11^th in the Big East pecking order, this team backed down from nobody.  They may not have the talent of some teams, but they take a backseat to no one in terms of heart.

While UNC boasts two future lottery picks (Barnes, Henson) and two others that should have long NBA careers in Marshall and Zeller, Marquette doesn’t have a single player that is a favorite to play in the league.  What they do have is a bunch of solid college players who, because of their coach, play together to make a sum that is greater than its parts.  Of those parts, the best of the bunch is Jimmy Butler, a senior leader who averages 16 points and six rebounds a night, and also does the intangibles to help his team get over the hump.

So, North Carolina is the higher rated team with more pure talent.  Of course, the last time these two teams met in the NCAA tournament, UNC was also ranked higher and boasted the higher profile players.  If you are old like me, you may remember it as Al McGuire’s last game, as the Warriors (that was PC back then) beat UNC 67-59 to win the 1977 National Championship behind Butch Lee, Jerome Whitehead and Bo Ellis.  Walter Davis, Phil Ford and Mike O’Koren would never win a title while Dean Smith had to wait five more years until Fred Brown had a brain fart to win his first.

But back to 2011…

North Carolina-Marquette Statistical Analysis and Prediction

Here is a statistical breakdown of the two teams, via the ESPN Bracket Predictor.

Surprisingly for a Roy Williams coached team, UNC is actually stronger defensively than they are with the ball.  Of course, those numbers are misleading since they played the first half of the season without Kendall Marshall.  His vision and passing skills take the Tar Heel offense to another dimension.

These teams’ strengths match up against each other.  Marquette is a solid offensive team, scoring well overall and in points per possessions.  On the flip side, UNC defends well, allowing the 22^nd least points per possession.

The Tar Heel advantage really comes when they possess the ball. They have been a decent offensive team throughout the season, while Marquette has been average at best defensively (only ranked #133 in points per possession).  The advantage here is magnified by the fact that the Tar Heels hit the offensive glass hard, while the Warriors, errr, Golden Eagles, do a poor job of owning the defensive glass.  This gives a huge opportunity to the long Henson and his counterpart Zeller to create second chance points.

In order to compensate for this weakness, Marquette will have to pressure the ball defensively and force turnovers.  UNC does an OK but not spectacular job of taking care of the basketball, and this is the area Marquette will need to exploit to offset their disadvantage defensively and on the glass.

It seems as though the majority of Marquette games are extremely close and hard fought and this team is used to being in difficult situations.  Under the bright lights of the Sweet 16, their veteran squad who is used to the wars is more likely to stay composed than a young UNC squad who is probably already thinking about how to beat Ohio State.

Pace is another key to this game.  UNC loves to create pace, and run up and down the court.  Marquette on the other hand is happy to play a bit more deliberately.  While they want to convert on the easy opportunities they can create via the turnover as discussed above, the Hilltoppers turned Warriors turned Golden Eagles will want to frustrate UNC by making the Heels play more slowly than they feel comfortable doing.

North Carolina has the better talent.  They have the Hall of Fame Coach.  They have the statistics that favor them.  But Marquette has cohesion, they play as a superior team, and this team is not going to make it easy for the Baby Blues to have their way.  All logic says that the Tar Heels will prevail and that they will advance to the Elite 8, but I have a feeling Marquette is going to win the battle of pace, frustrating the Tar Heels and ultimately pulling off the upset.

• North Carolina-Marquette Prediction: Marquette 73, North Carolina 71
• North Carolina-Marquette Spread Pick: Marquette +4.5
  
• North Carolina-Marquette Over-Under: Under

The Jayhawks make it back to the Sweet 16 after being upset by Northern Iowa in the second round in 2010. Kansas has what some would consider the easiest path the the Final Four considering the 10, 11, and 12 seeds are the teams still left in their bracket.

The 12 seed, Richmond, has returned to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1998, defeating Vanderbilt and Morehead State to get there. The Spiders have won 16 of their last 18 games with the only loses coming against Temple and Xavier, who both made the NCAA Tournament.

This sets up Kansas and Richmond in the Southwest semifinal. Game information is below.

Sweet 16: Kansas-Richmond Game Info

• Date: Friday, March 25
• Location: Alamo Dome in San Antonio, TX
• Tip Time: 7:27 ET
• TV: TBS
• Announcers: Marv Albert, Steve Kerr and Craig Sager
• Point Spread: Kansas -10.5
• Over-Under: 138

Kansas Jayhawks and Richmond Spiders by the Numbers

Here is the statistical breakdown of the two teams, via the ESPN Bracket Predictor.

What the Numbers Mean

Statistically, Kansas has almost every advantage. The only areas that Richmond holds over Kansas are Opponents Free Throw Attempts per Field Goal Attempts and Turnover Percentage. Kansas ranks fifth in the nation in points per game (82.4) compared to Richmond ranking 129th (70.2). Kansas also leads the nation in field goal percentage and grabs almost seven more rebounds per game than Richmond.

Fortunately for Richmond, the game of basketball isn’t played on paper, especially in March.

Richmond has thrived late in the season on their overall athleticism. They can match up athletically with any team in the nation, and that will definitely help them against Kansas. Both Morris twins can step out to the three point line and knock down open shots, which can be extremely difficult to cover.

Richmond has superb athletes, including Darrius Garrett who has contributed some fantastic blocks so far this tournament. If Richmond is able to cover the Morris brothers on the perimeter and force the ball out of their hands, they will force Kansas to rely on their guards to win, a position the Jayhawks have had problems with this year.

Part of that guard play has been indecision, which shows in the turnover percentage, one of the few statistics that is in Richmond’s favor. If Richmond can get their guards and athletes up and down the court, it might not be in their favor, but it may force Kansas’ guards to also push the tempo and create turnovers.

For Kansas to win this game, it is simple: come out to play early. A staple of Bill Self and this Kansas team is that they start slow and sometimes take too long to adjust and take over. That’s what we saw last year against Northern Iowa and at times in the first round against Boston. The Jayhawks need to control the boards as they have all year, make sure the Morris twins get involved early and often, and limit mistake from their guards.

Kansas-Richmond Prediction

This could end up being one of the better Sweet 16 games. Richmond is an extremely underrated team athletically and can hang with any team in the nation. They match up well against this Kansas team. Unfortunately, they don’t have the experience or a player like Marcus Morris to carry them through a full game.

Richmond will keep this game too close for too long, and if Kansas doesn’t show up early, we could have our second #1 seed fall. I don’t see that happening, but you can bet it will an exciting game.

• Kansas-Richmond Prediction: Kansas 76, Richmond 66
• Kansas-Richmond Spread Pick: Richmond +10.5
• Kansas-Richmond Over-Under Pick: Over

Twelve months and one week later, the stakes and aspirations of each squad are much higher with just two wins separating each school from the Final Four and #1 seed Pittsburgh already eliminated. The oddsmakers currently have Florida as a three point pick, and they have the slight advantage of playing in the middle of SEC country. Can Jimmer and the Cougars overcome the odds to advance?

Sweet 16: Florida v BYU Game Info

• WHO: #3 seeded BYU Cougars v. #2 Florida Gators
• WHAT: NCAA Southeast Regional Semi-Final
• WHERE: New Orelans Arena, New Orleans, LA
• WHEN: 7:27 PM Eastern Time, Thursday, March 24
• TELEVISION: TBS
• ANNOUNCERS: Gus Johnson, Len Elmore, Reggie Miller, Marty Snider (sideline)
• POINT SPREAD: Florida -3
• OVER-UNDER: 149

Thursday in particular is going to be a dream day in the NCAA tournament, with the Southeast double-header also featuring the incredibly intriguing Butler v. Wisconsin pairing. Meanwhile the West Region in Anaheim has #2 seeded San Diego State v. #3 UCONN along with top-seeded Duke against Derrick Williams and fifth-seeded Arizona.

The biggest storyline in this game, besides Jimmer Fredette himself, will be the man who is supposed to guard Jimmer. Late in Saturday’s Round of 32 game, Florida’s Kenny Boynton turned an ankle, tried to return to the game, only to be removed after being beaten for a basket. Florida is saying that Boynton is fully expecting to play, and he has not been on crutches or walking with a boot. That said, sprained ankles are tricky issues, and can easily be re-injured trying to catch up with one of Jimmer’s patented cross-overs.

Boynton knows Fredette well. Last year, as a highly touted freshman, he played nearly the entire contest but came up fatigued late – as Fredette scored ten points (including two three-balls) in the decisive overtimes before Boynton fouled out.

This time around, Billy Donovan’s game plan will also involve rotating freshman Scott Wilbekin and Casey Prather (known as an athletic, on-ball defender) onto Fredette, in an attempt to slow down the shock and awe arsenal of college basketball’s most valuable player. However, Boynton will still do the heavy lifting in guarding Jimmer, and traditionally draws the teams toughest defensive assignment, which in conference this year included Kentucky’s Brandon Knight, as well as Ohio State’s David Lighty and K-State’s Jacob Pullen in the non-conference schedule.

On paper, it would appear that UF should be able to handle things inside, with Vernon Macklin, Chandler Parsons, and Alex Tyus going 6’10” 6’10” and 6’8” respectively. They have handled taller opposition within the conference and went up against 300+ lb man-child Joshua Smith of UCLA last weekend. Last year Florida out-rebounded BYU by 12 and scored 16 more points in the paint, and that was with currently suspended Brandon Davies in the Brigham Young lineup.

Free throw shooting could also be a decisive factor, BYU is traditionally among the nation’s best from the stripe, but Florida has been a very respectable 13-17 (.765) in each of the Gators two tourney wins.

PREDICTION: BYU will clearly live or die with Jimmer; although if the likes of Chuck Abouo and Noah Hartsock can take at least some of the pressure off him, that can certainly help. Fredette is capable of taking his team to Houston, and maybe even winning the entire thing – but Billy Donovan also has experience with Final Fours and national titles.

With Gus at the mic, this should live up to all of the expectations. Just seconds remaining, Fredette with the rock…

‘JIMMER IS GOING TO DO IT HIMSELF, FROM 30 FEET, FOR THE WIIINNNN – OOOOOHHHHHH!!!!!’

• BYU-Florida Prediction: BYU 84, Florida 81
• BYU-Florida Spread Pick: Push (Florida -3)
• BYU-Florida Over-Under: Over

And for those of you interested in how these teams break down statistically, here is the matchup breakdown from the ESPN.com Bracket Predictor:

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Arizona, on the other hand, is the rebuilding former juggernaut that had to knock off favored Texas to advance past the Tournament’s first weekend.

In this post, The Sports Muse analyzes the journey these two teams took to get to the 2011 Sweet 16, how they stack up statistically this season, and how Thursday night’s game will most likely play out.

First the basics:

Sweet 16 Preview: Duke v Arizona Game Info:

• Date: Thursday, March 24th
• Tip Time: 9:45 ET
• TV: CBS
• Announcers: Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery
• Location: Anaheim, CA
• Arena: The Honda Center
• Point Spread: Duke -8.5
• Over-Under: 144

Duke v Arizona – How They Got Here

Duke is a team that was ranked #1 in the preseason, hung in the Top 5 for the entire season, and everyone (many begrudgingly) expected the Blue Devils to still be dancing when the Sweet 16 rolled around.

Arizona is a different story.  Lute Olson, et al, left the program a complete mess two years ago. They struggled to a 16-15 record with eight new players in Sean Miller’s first year as head coach last season, and another year of rebuilding was expected before contending in the Pac-10 next season.  In fact, in the preseason polls, Arizona was ranked tied for 46^th, with a whopping 2 points, behind such 2011 powerhouses like N.C. State, Mississippi State, and California.

Needless to say, nobody thought the Wildcats would still be chasing a dream in the Sweet 16.

Duke did not disappoint.  Despite losing perhaps the best player in the country in Kyrie Irving eight games into the season (whom they got back for March Madness), Duke reinvented itself, worked its way to a 32-4 record, Coach K’s 13^th ACC tournament title, a #1 seed in the West, and survived a scare from John Beilein’s young and gritty Michigan squad on Sunday.

Arizona, on the other hand, blossomed a year earlier than expected, led by Derrick Williams, who went from Pac-10 Freshman of the Year to All American stud. They did not enter the polls until the end of January, but had a nice consistent season.  This team won all the games they were supposed to (with the exception of a road loss at Corvallis), and steadily improved under Miller’s tutelage and Williams’ dominance.  Like Duke, they survived and advanced with two very tough and close games against Memphis and Texas.

As we move ahead to the Sweet 16, Duke and Arizona meet up with a spot in the Elite 8 on the line.  Who will win? Who will have their dreams shattered?

Duke v Arizona – Statistical Breakdown and Analysis

Duke v Arizona Personnel

Duke features three of probably the top 15 players in the country in Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, and Kyrie Irving.

Nolan Smith was probably the best all-around player in the country this season, averaging over 21 points and 5 assists per game, all while playing suffocating defense (ask Malcolm Delaney) and providing tremendous leadership skills.

In addition to the Big 3, Duke features two knock down shooters in Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins, and three inside guys who can rebound, play strong off ball defense (especially Ryan Kelly), shot block (especially Mason Plumlee), and in the case of Kelly, hit from the outside as well.

Arizona relies more heavily on one guy, with Williams their only double digit scorer on the season. However, they have a bunch of complimentary players who are all capable of stepping up. Solomon Hill, Kyle Fogg, Lamont “MoMo” Jones, Kevin Parrom, and Jordin Mayes (who off the bench is a perfect 5-for-5 on 3’s in the tourney to date) are all capable of being a viable second option for the ‘Cats behind Williams.

Duke v Arizona Statistical Breakdown

Before we go any further, let’s quickly analyze some important metrics for this game, courtesy of the ESPN Bracket Predictor (which MSF is now using for the third straight year to provide an objective basis for comparing teams’ season-long body of work.)

Where does Duke have the advantage?

When they have the ball.

When Duke has the ball, they are a top 10 team in efficiency, scoring the 9^th highest points per possession.  Arizona, on the flip side, is poor at defensive efficiency, ranking only 116^th in the country.  With Kyrie Irving back with another week of practice under his belt, that will create more open perimeter shots for the Devils’ lethal three point shooters.  If Singler or Kelly hit from the perimeter, this advantage becomes big.

Turnovers.

Duke has done a really good job of taking care of the ball this season, and they have gotten better as the season has evolved.  Arizona, however, tends to struggle in this area, and turns the ball over more frequently than the Devils.  The Wildcats simply have to take care of the ball to have a chance in this one, which is possible because Duke does not always force a ton of mistakes (Michigan had single digit turnovers on Sunday, which helped give them a chance at the upset).

Experience.

Duke has more of it.  They have senior stars in Smith and Singler who have played in 13 NCAA games, winning 11 including a National Championship.  They also have four other players (the three bigs and Dawkins) who saw minutes last year when they cut down the nets.

Coaching.

Sean Miller is an excellent, not just a good coach.  He gets the most out of his players.  He knows Duke from his days as an assistant under Herb Sendek at N.C. State.  He has been extremely successful as a head coach at Xavier (man can that place produce coaches) and he could probably run for Mayor in Tucson based on his quick success.

But you have to give the slight edge here to Coach K, who has won 900 games overall (827 at Duke), won 79 NCAA Tournament games, been to 11 Final 4’s, won 4 National Championships, plus an Olympic Gold Medal and a World Championship.  Coach K has done a superior job this season morphing his team mid-stream to adjust to Irving’s loss, and he is more than capable of getting them back to a quicker tempo now that Irving is back with two games under his belt.

Where is it even?

When Arizona is on offense

When Arizona has the ball, they are an efficient team who scores at the 18^th highest rate in the country.  However, Duke is equally adept on the defensive side of the ball, giving up the 6^th fewest points per possession.  Arizona shoots the ball well, and Duke plays good field goal defense.  Duke does pressure the perimeter well (better with Irving back) and that could give the Wildcats trouble from behind the arc.

Where does Arizona have the advantage?

Derrick Williams. Plain and simple.

Williams can score on the inside and from the outside.  His field goal percentage is a fantastic 60% for the season.  Amazingly, he shoots 58% from behind the arc.  That is a better percentage from 3-point land than all-time UA sharpshooter Steve Kerr ever converted.  That is almost not fair.  Duke has a couple athletic bigs (Mason Plumlee followed by Miles Plumlee), but I look for Williams to use up most of the 15 fouls that Plumlee, Plumlee, and Kelly have at their disposal.

Arizona is not a great offensive rebounding team, but I look for Williams to relentlessly crash the offensive glass against a Duke team that is vulnerable to offensive rebounds. It is interesting to note a discrepancy in coaching styles.  Miller favors (and always has) using depth, playing 9-10 guys and sitting everyone.  Williams has averaged less than 30 minutes per game during the season, although I will be surprised if he does not play 36+ in this one.

Home Cooking.

Arizona is playing close to home, and they will have a huge crowd advantage, especially if San Diego State wins the opening game on Thursday (as all the Aztec fans will be rooting against Duke).  Duke is used to playing in hostile environments, and in a similar situation last year, beat Baylor in Houston to advance to the Final 4.  But this is an advantage for Arizona that will multiply exponentially if they stay within striking distance for the first 30 minutes.

Duke v Arizona Prediction

Can Arizona Win?

Of course they can.

They can win if Williams gets their bigs in early foul trouble by dominating the inside, if they have 1-2 other guys (most likely “MoMo” Jones) who step up and hit multiple big shots, if they take care of the ball, and if Singler especially continues to struggle from the outside.  It will also help if Irving is not completely back in early season form, and if they get the crowd energized early and make it a home game.

The other thing that Arizona should try to do is to get Singler in foul trouble, which would keep him from effectively helping to guard Williams and limit his defensive aggressiveness in general.

But What Will Happen?

Coach K will design a game plan in which all-for-one tries to beat one-for-all (see Portland Trail Blazers vs. Julius Erving’s Philadelphia 76ers, 1977).  He will not consume himself with stopping Williams.  K will let him have his, get his guys to play solid defense but without taking too many dumb fouls.  He will take away the other options.

If Duke does that, they simply have too many weapons on the other end of the floor for Williams to keep up by himself.  Arizona does not have the defensive talent to keep all the Duke shooters and scorers at bay.

• Duke-Arizona Prediction: Duke 79, Arizona 65
• Duke-Arizona Spread Pick: Duke -8.5
• Duke-Arizona Over-Under: Push (144)

Follow The Sports Muse on Twitter @TheSportsMuse.

But no matchup has me more intrigued than the matchup between the #1 seed and the #4 seed in the East Region – Ohio State versus Kentucky.

That’s why I am kicking off my part of our Sweet 16 previews off with this matchup. No sense saving the best for last. The most compelling matchup comes first for me.

First, the basics.

Sweet 16 Preview: Ohio State v Kentucky Game Info

• Date: Friday, March 25th
• Tip Time: 9:45 ET
• TV: CBS
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Location: Newark, NJ
• Arena: The Prudential Center
• Point Spread: OSU -5
• Over-Under: 140
• RazorGator: Ohio State-Kentucky Sweet 16 Tickets – ($20 off on orders of $200 or more at RazorGator.com. Use code ORDR20RG.
• Vivid Seats: Ohio State-Kentucky Sweet 16 Tickets

If you have followed my NCAA Tournament predictions before, you know that I like to use objective data when assessing teams. This has worked out pretty well for single-game predictions, though not always when applied in a blanket way to an entire bracket. But hey – we’re past the point of predicting the whole bracket. Now it’s all single-game analysis, where we excel here at MSF.

So before we go any further, let’s quickly analyze some important metrics for this game, courtesy of the ESPN Bracket Predictor (which I am now using for the third straight year to give me an objective basis for comparing teams’ season-long body of work as a whole.)

As you can see, there are only two out of the 15 metrics measure where Kentucky has an edge: turnover % (Kentucky ranked 6th, Ohio State ranked 7th) and opponent’s effective FG percentage (Kentucky ranked 11th, Ohio State ranked 123rd). So if we are looking at this game strictly on the basis of these very predictive stats, the Buckeyes are the obvious choice.

This is an Ohio State team that scores more points per possession than any other team America, and only 11 others allow fewer points per possession to opponents. That is pretty impressive stuff. Combine it with the Buckeyes’ bevy of NBA-level talent – literally every player in their rotation is an NBA prospect – and how much they have destroyed their first two opponents (combined winning margin: 63 points) in this year’s NCAA Tournament, and it suggests to me that the common notion that “there is no dominant team this year” might just be a big bunch of malarkey.

Ohio State has lost two games all season. They lost at Wisconsin and at Purdue (back when Purdue was actually playing like a #1 seed), two of the toughest places to win in college basketball. In fact, neither team lost a home game to anyone else.

So can this dominant Thad Matta-led Ohio State team, which has not been beaten all season anywhere but in the most of hostile road environments, be beaten by a young, talented Coach Cal-led Kentucky team that was within a tiger stripe of being knocked out in the first round?

Yes.

However, this is not a game where Ohio State can play its best and Kentucky can play its best and the whims of the basketball’s bounces will decide the game. If the Buckeyes bring their A game, it’s over. Ohio State wins. Kentucky is talented, but they do not have the lethal blend of talent and experience that Ohio State has. So Kentucky needs Ohio State to be slightly of its game, and the Wildcats need to do some things to push the Buckeyes in the direction of a B, B+ performance.

If Ohio State plays at a B/B+ level and Kentucky plays up to its potential, which admittedly would not be any kind of miraculous occurrence, we’ll have a game. Here are three ways the Wildcats can do it.

1. Guard the MF’ing 3-point line!

In listening to analysis of the Buckeyes during this tournament, I have often heard that controlling Jared Sullinger is the key to stopping Ohio State. So I expected that in the rare instances this season when the Buckeyes have lost that Sullinger has been held in check. Has he?

Here are Sullinger’s numbers in Ohio State’s two losses:

• @ Wisconsin – 19 points on 7-12 shooting, 12 rebounds, 1 foul, 40 minutes played
• @ Purdue – 25 points on 9-14 shooting, 6 rebounds, 4 turnovers, 4 fouls, 33 minutes played

For the season, Sullinger averaged 17.1 points per game and 10.0 rebounds per game. In Ohio State’s two losses, he averaged 23 points and 8 rebounds. So it seems to me that even when the Buckeyes lose, Sullinger is going to get his.

In looking at the box score, however, one statistic jumped out. The Buckeyes went 3-9 from downtown against Wisconsin and 4-15 from downtown against Purdue. That’s 7-24 (29%) in the two losses for a team that averaged 8 made threes and 18.7 attempts per game (approximately 42.7%) in their 34 wins. In fact, had five more of the Buckeyes 25 field goals against Wisconsin had been three-pointers – giving them their average of 8 – they win the game 72-71 rather than lose it 71-67.

It seems pretty clear: Kentucky must defend the 3-point line, and the stats certainly seem to suggest that they can.

Look back at the stat images above. One of the most impressive numbers for Kentucky is their effective field goal percentage defense, which is a KenPom stat that gives 50% more credit for defending the three-point line as opposed to normal field goal percentage defense. This bodes well for the Wildcats if we agree that it is imperative that they must limit the number of good looks the Buckeyes get behind the line. They did it against Princeton (3-14) but not quite as well against West Virginia (7-19).

If Kentucky can hold the Buckeyes to 3-4 three point field goals made, Sullinger can put up his usual stats and the Wildcats should have a chance to win in the end.

2. Everyone else can be normal, but Brandon Knight has to be great

Again, I’m not sure I agree with the conventional wisdom. This time, it is the conventional wisdom about Kentucky big man Josh Harrellson.

I keep hearing the Harrellson is the key to Kentucky winning, but I just don’t buy it. Sure, he’s important, and he needs to make life tough on Jared Sullinger, but we have already established that Ohio State can be beaten when Sullinger gets his numbers. Here now is something else we can establish: beating Ohio State does not require a great game from the guys inside.

Here are the numbers for the big men in the two games Ohio State lost this year:

• @Wisconsin: Keaton Nankivil – 7 pts, 2 rbs; Jon Leuer – 12 pts, 6 rbs; Mike Bruesewitz – 12 pts, 2 rbs
• @Purdue: JaJuan Johnson – 13 pts, 6 rbs, 4-10 FGs

Wisconsin does not have a traditional low block center like a Harrellson or a Johnson, so the comparison there is incomplete. But it is telling that even the very good Jon Leuer had just 12 points and 6 rebounds in his team’s biggest regular season win of the year. More telling is JaJuan Johnson’s stat line. This is the Big Ten Player of the Year, so you would think he would have to be terrific to beat a team led by Jared Sullinger. He wasn’t. In fact, Sullinger almost doubled him up in points.

So how did Purdue and Wisconsin win then?

• @Wisconsin: Jordan Taylor: 27 points on 5-8 3FGs, 7 assists, 1 TO, 39 minutes
• @Purdue: E’Twaun Moore: 38 points on 13-18 FGs, 7-10 3FGs, 5 assists, 4 rebounds, 38 minutes

Clearly, the Buckeyes lost because the best guard on the opposing team decided to put his team on his back and have a career day.

Brandon Knight, the floor is yours.

For Kentucky to beat Ohio State, Knight simply must be spectacular, and there does not appear to be any way around it. Sure, Harrellson needs to be solid and eat up space down low. And yes, Terrence Jones probably needs a double-double. And sure, Doron Lamb and Darius Miller are going to need to score more than the 9 combined points they scored against West Virginia. But the key is Knight.

In the Wildcats’ first tournament game, Knight infamously scored just one bucket. Luckily for he and the ‘Cats it was the most important bucket of the game and they moved on. But another 1-8 shooting night from Knight and it will be goodnight for Kentucky.

To his credit, the cerebral and mature freshman bounced back against West Virginia in the Round of 32 and poured in 30 points on 9-20 shooting. He only had four assists and he turned the ball over four times, but against the Buckeyes I don’t think that matters. Knight needs to play balls-to-wall, even if that means a few mistakes, and be the ultimate scoring catalyst for his team.

Based on how this year has gone for Ohio State, going up against such a guard is the only way they lose.

And now the final thing that needs to happen for Kentucky to beat Ohio State and advance to the Elite 8…

3. The game needs to be moved to Lexington

Uh oh. I don’t think even John Calipari, the greatest salesman in the history of college basketball, could pull this one off. (Not that I’d necessarily bet against him…)

Has Kentucky shown it can guard the three-point line well enough to contain Diebler and Co from downtown? Yes.

Has Brandon Knight shown Jordan Taylor- and E’Twaun Moore-like ability to have an out-of-this-world scoring day? Yes, he just did.

So Kentucky has a chance. They really do. But the other element of Ohio State’s losses this year is something Kentucky simply cannot recreate: home court advantage.

Not many teams go into Mackey Arena or the Kohl Center and come out alive. If those are the only two places you lose all year, you’re a pretty damn good team. Well, Ohio State is a pretty damn good team, and I think they are going to win Friday night.

Now, if this game were in Lexington, where Big Blue Nation could rowdy it up and Ashley Judd could clap-clap-clap from the stands and the ghost of Adolph Rupp could spin a few Jon Diebler threes out instead of in…well then maybe the ‘Cats could do what the Badgers and Boilermakers could do. But this game is not in Lexington; it’s in Newark. And so even if Kentucky does everything right – if they guard the 3 and Brandon Knight goes off – they won’t have the home court edge to knock Ohio State from their A- game down to a B+ or a B.

Thus, Thad Matta and the Buckeyes march on to the Elite 8 – but not easily. Every eventual national champion seems to have a dramatic, nail-biter game before they reach the Final 4. The Buckeyes haven’t had theirs yet. They will on Friday night, as both teams hit their season averages for points right on the money.

• Ohio State-Kentucky Prediction: Ohio State 77 – Kentucky 76
• Ohio State-Kentucky Spread Pick: Kentucky +5
• Ohio State-Kentucky Over/Under: 140 (keep in mind folks, for this game to go under the two teams would have to combined for 14 fewer points than their aggregate average.

**********

What do you think? Will the Buckeyes breeze? Will the Wildcats pull of a Sweet 16 upset? The comment section yours to agree with, disagree with, challenge, or expound on anything you just read. That’s how we do things here.

To wit – BYU and San Diego State can indeed pair off with anyone in the country and the mistake is still being made involving sleeping on the Butler Bulldogs.

Meanwhile, North Carolina and Duke both survived their second round games by the skin of their teeth, partly because the NCAA always mandates that one of the tourney sites during the first two weekends be somewhere in the state of North Carolina.

If Washington v. Tar Heels were played instead in say Cleveland or Tulsa, does Carolina still survive the round of 32??

And the Big East surpassed all expectations of a possible thud; throw out UConn and Marquette (who beat other Big East members over the weekend) and the conference was essentially shut out. Charles Barkley may be outspoken, but before Selection Sunday I was one of those that suggested that the Big East be capped at eight teams, even if it would have left out the school whose campus I drive through every day and that now gets their long-awaited tourney rematch with North Carolina in the Sweet 16.

When the smoke finally cleared last night, the chalk survived with ten of the 16 top seeds. As we decompress after four days of wall-to-wall hoops, a synopsis on the four Regionals, and some of the teams that went by the wayside.

EAST (Newark)

• Still alive: #1 Ohio State/#2 North Carolina/#4 Kentucky/#11 Marquette

The Buckeyes are still the clear front-runners to be king of the dance, but they are going to have to earn their ticket to Houston with Kentucky and, potentially, North Carolina as formidable chicanes. That said, Ohio State will be tough, especially if Jon Diebler and David Lighty continue to go ballistic with three pointers.

And the best thing that ever happened to Marquette?? The day Tom Crean finally decided to leave town. Buzz Williams continues to steer that ship just fine, thank you – and the program is finally rewarded by getting out of the first weekend for first time since the D-Wade 2003 team.  But now the buzz is that Buzz’s name is in the coaching rumor-mill, most notably Arkansas or Oklahoma.

As for the departed, for a team that had to fly cross-country to get there, Lorenzo Romar and the University of Washington continues to make a great impression.

WEST (Anaheim)

• Still alive: #1 Duke/#2 San Diego St./#3 Uconn/#5 Arizona

Obviously a star-studded regional, and we will find out once and for all how legit Steve Fisher and his San Diego St. squad is after grinding out a double-overtime win over Temple that was not totally impressive. Being close to home will be the one intangible in favor of the Aztecs.

Arizona’s Derrick Williams is being touted as #1 overall material in what will be a wide-open 2011 NBA Draft, but he was not exactly golden until saving Arizona over Texas late.

I may have to think twice about writing off Duke and still white-hot UConn, especially if soon-to-be draft bound Kyrie Irving can step it up and be a difference maker. Coach K’s troops have a great chance to make it to the Final Four yet again.

SOUTHWEST (San Antonio)

• Still alive: #1 Kansas/#10 Florida St./#11 VCU/#12 Richmond

There is this town out east called Richmond – turns out they play some pretty good hoops over there. Assuming there will be a lot of flights from Virginia to San Antonio this week, and although VCU at least has a punchers chance against Florida St., it might be slightly too much to dare dream about that Richmond v. VCU regional final.

And then there are the Seminoles, who sent Notre Dame packing (at least not far to go from Chicago to South Bend) with it’s stifling defense. Conceding just over 35% from the field, FSU touts the lowest FG% to the opposition of any D-1 team in the last ten years. From a Kansas perspective however, you can not possibly ask for a bracket that has been busted more wide open, as the Jayhawks truly have the Yellow Brick Road paved from San Antonio to Houston.

SOUTHEAST (New Orleans)

• Still alive: #2 Florida/#3 BYU/#4 Wisconsin/#8 Butler

When the Latter-Day Saints Come Marching In. While San Diego St.’s win over Temple was more like a tooth extraction, Team Jimmer went shock and awe in a surprisingly easy win over future conference rival Gonzaga, capping off a weekend in Denver that saw the Cougar faithful in Denver break out the best signs outside of a Scott Walker protest in Madison. (Bonus BYU take: Turns out Ivory-Coast born Charles Abouo spent part of his childhood in Milwaukee!!)

As far as Butler is concerned, the last two seconds of their upset of Pitt will remain well chronicled for eternity, but the first 39:58 was what put the Bulldogs in position to win. 20 years from now will we be talking about Brad Stevens like we do currently about Mike Kryzewski now?? Or down the road Stevens even becomes Coach K’s successor. It would only be a plum job like Duke that I would see Stevens leaving Butler anytime soon.

And then there is Bo Ryan and the Wisconsin Badgers. Under Ryan, Sconnie has made it to the Round of 32 nine of ten years and to the Sweet 16 three times.

Finally Billy Donovan and Florida complete the bracket, they are the highest seed left in the region, but getting blown out by Kentucky in the SEC final shows how vulnerable they can potentially be.

Butler/Wisconsin may be the best game of the Sweet 16, with BYU/Florida not far behind. A Wisconsin/BYU showdown featuring Jordan Taylor v. Jimmer would be an absolute dream. Any one of these four are truly capable of crashing the Final Four party.

My Final Four picks:

• #1 Ohio State
• #1 Duke
• #1 Kansas
• #3 BYU

I sound like the ESPN/Yahoo talking heads going chalk…

This post is from 2010!!!

Click to view the 2011 Sweet 16 TV Schedule and Announcers.

What an opening weekend.

I am sure that there have been opening weekends that have been as good or close to as a good, but I can’t imagine another NCAA Tournament opening weekend being better than what we just saw.

There were buzzer beaters, huge upsets, Cinderellas that lasted to the second weekend, tremendous individual performances, and just a lot of really, really good basketball. This weekend proved, once again, why the NCAA Tournament is the most exciting event in sports.

Now it is time for the second weekend, the Sweet 16 and then the Elite 8, and we have all of the TV schedule, announcer, and spread info you need.

First, let’s talk about tickets. If you are thinking about going to any of the four regional sites this weekend, here the links to StubHub that you need:

• All Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Tickets
• South Region in Houston: Sweet 16 and Regional Final Tickets
• West Region in Salt Lake City: Sweet 16 and Regional Final Tickets
• Midwest Region in St. Louis: Sweet 16 and Regional Final Tickets
• East Region in Syracuse, NY: Sweet 16 and Regional Final Tickets

Now, let’s break down the TV schedule, announcer assignments (courtesy of FangsBites.com), and spreads for each of the Sweet 16 matchups. Throughout this week I will be posting previews and prediction for each game (or as many as I’m able to get to). I’ll update this post with links once those posts are done.

Follow the link to view the entire 2010 NCAA Tournament schedule.

East Region (Thursday/Saturday Games)

#2 West Virginia v #11 Washington

• West Virginia-Washington Date: Thursday, March 25
• West Virginia-Washington Tip Time: 7:27 ET
• West Virginia-Washington Location: The Carrier Dome in Syracuse, NY
• West Virginia-Washington Announcers: Dick Enberg and Jay Bilas
• West Virginia-Washington Spread: West Virginia -4.5
• MSF Analysis: West Virginia-Washington Preview and Prediction
• StubHub: West Virginia-Washington Tickets
• StubHub: East Regional Final Tickets
• StubHub: East Regional Tickets (both sessions)

#1 Kentucky v #12 Cornell

• Kentucky-Cornell Date: Thursday, March 25
• Kentucky-Cornell Tip Time: 9:57 ET
• Kentucky-Cornell Location: The Carrier Dome in Syracuse, NY
• Kentucky-Cornell Announcers: Dick Enberg and Jay Bilas
• Kentucky-Cornell Spread: Kentucky -9.5
• MSF Analysis: Cornell-Kentucky Preview and Prediction
• StubHub: Kentucky-Cornell Tickets
• StubHub: East Regional Final Tickets
• StubHub: East Regional Tickets (both sessions)

The winners of this game will play on Saturday, March 27th. The time will be determined once the matchups are known. The announcers will be the same.

West Region (Thursday/Saturday Games)

#1 Syracuse v #5 Butler

• Syracuse-Butler Date: Thursday, March 25
• Syracuse-Butler Tip Time: 7:07 ET
• Syracuse-Butler Location: Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake City, UT
• Syracuse-Butler Announcers: Gus Johnson and Len Elmore
• Syracuse-Butler Spread: Syracuse -7
• MSF Analysis: Syracuse-Butler Preview and Prediction
• StubHub: Butler-Syracuse Tickets
• StubHub: West Regional Final Tickets
• StubHub: West Regional Tickets (both sessions)

#2 Kansas State v #6 Xavier

• Kansas State-Xavier Date: Thursday, March 25
• Kansas State-Xavier Tip Time: 9:37 ET
• Kansas State-Xavier Location: Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake City, UT
• Kansas State-Xavier Announcers: Gus Johnson and Len Elmore
• Kansas State-Xavier Spread: Kansas State -4
• MSF Analysis: Xavier-Kansas State Preview and Prediction
• StubHub: Xavier-Kansas State Tickets
• StubHub: West Regional Final Tickets
• StubHub: West Regional Tickets (both sessions)

The winners of this game will play on Saturday, March 27th. The time will be determined once the matchups are known. The announcers will be the same.

South Region (Friday/Sunday Games)

#3 Baylor v #10 St. Mary’s

• Baylor-St. Mary’s Date: Friday, March 26th
• Baylor-St. Mary’s Tip Time: 7:27 ET
• Baylor-St. Mary’s Location: Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX
• Baylor-St. Mary’s Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Baylor-St. Mary’s Spread: Baylor -3.5
• MSF Analysis: Baylor-St. Mary’s Preview and Prediction
• DSF Analysis: Baylor-St. Mary’s Preview and Prediction
• StubHub: Baylor-St. Mary’s Tickets
• StubHub: South Regional Final Tickets
• StubHub: South Regional Tickets (both sessions)

#4 Purdue v #1 Duke

• Purdue-Duke Date: Friday, March 26th
• Purdue-Duke Tip Time: 9:57 ET
• Purdue-Duke Location: Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX
• Purdue-Duke Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Purdue-Duke Spread: Duke -8
• MSF Analysis: Purdue-Duke Sweet 16 Preview and Prediction
• StubHub: Purdue-Duke Tickets
• StubHub: South Regional Final Tickets
• StubHub: South Regional Tickets (both sessions)

The winners of this game will play on Sunday, March 28th. The time will be determined once the matchups are known. The announcers will be the same.

Midwest Region (Friday/Sunday Games)

#5 Michigan State v #9 Northern Iowa

• Michigan State-Northern Iowa Date: Friday, March 26th
• Michigan State-Northern Iowa Tip Time: 9:37 ET
• Michigan State-Northern Iowa Location: Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, MO
• Michigan State-Northern Iowa Announcers: Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery
• Michigan State-Northern Iowa Spread: Michigan State -1
• MSF Analysis: Michigan State-Northern Iowa Preview and Prediction
• StubHub: Michigan State-Northern Iowa Tickets
• StubHub: Midwest Regional Final Tickets
• StubHub: Midwest Regional Tickets (both sessions)

#2 Ohio State v #6 Tennessee

• Ohio State-Tennessee Date: Friday, March 26th
• Ohio State-Tennessee Tip Time: 7:07 ET
• Ohio State-Tennessee Location: Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, MO
• Ohio State-Tennessee Announcers: Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery
• Ohio State-Tennessee Spread: Ohio State -4.5
• MSF Analysis: Ohio State-Tennessee Preview and Prediction
• StubHub: Ohio State-Tennessee Tickets
• StubHub: Midwest Regional Final Tickets
• StubHub: Midwest Regional Tickets (both sessions)

The winners of this game will play on Sunday, March 28th. The time will be determined once the matchups are known. The announcers will be the same.

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* – Basketball image credit: eHow.com

I love the stories of St. Mary’s and Cornell, but I think their Sweet 16 matchups dictate a planr flight home after one game this weekend.

Washington, on the other hand, is a double-digit seed that could very well play on after Thursday night. That is not a knock on their opponent, West Virginia, which is an outstanding team led by a superlative player in Da’Sean Butler.

Rather, it is a testament to just hot Washington is right now and to the benefit of having a duo like Isaiah Thomas and Quincy Pondexter, probably the most underrated 1-2 punch in the nation.

Can the Huskies pull off their third straight upset and make the Elite 8? Let’s analyze.

Sweet 16: #2 West Virginia v #11 Washington (East Region)

• West Virginia-Washington Date: Thursday, March 25
• West Virginia-Washington Tip Time: 7:27 ET
• West Virginia-Washington Location: The Carrier Dome in Syracuse, NY
• West Virginia-Washington Announcers: Dick Enberg and Jay Bilas
• West Virginia-Washington Spread: West Virginia -4.5
• StubHub: West Virginia-Washington Tickets
• StubHub: East Regional Final Tickets
• StubHub: East Regional Tickets (both sessions)

West Virginia-Washington Analysis

Next, let’s analyze this Sweet 16 matchup.

[Note: If you followed our NCAA Tournament coverage here at MSF last year, you know that I published previews similar to this one for each game from the Sweet 16 on. Using statistical analysis from the ESPN Bracket Predictor, which is powered by TeamRankings.com, plus my own knowledge an intuition, I went 12-3 picking the 15 games that concluded the 2009 Tournament. The methodology is essentially the same this year; we'll see if the results are.]

Here is how the numbers break down between West Virginia and Washington:

Despite the big conference pedigree of Washington, this game is still a #2 seed versus a #11 seed, and the Pac-10 was abysmal this season. Thus, the win odds are stacked pretty heavily in the direction of Bob Huggins’ Mountaineers. That is not a surprise.

What is surprising to me are the offensive and defensive numbers. Even peripheral observers of Big East basketball like myself know that West Virginia is a team with a reputation for playing rugged defense, rebounding, but being uneven on the offensive side of the floor. Washington, on the other hand, is known for the explosive scoring capabilities of Thomas and Pondexter. Yet, look at how the numbers stack up.

Offensively, West Virginia is actually the 15th most efficient team in America in terms of points per possession. They also protect the ball very well, turning it over on only 14.0% of their possessions. It seems to me like maximizing the number of possessions and then maximizing the points scored per each of those possessions is a pretty solid recipe for success. Predictably, the Mountaineers also rebound well, grabbing 40.7% of the offensive rebounding opportunities that come their way.

Overall, despite their reputation, West Virginia holds a 3-2 advantage on Washington in the offensive categories.

Defensively, however, the story is a bit different. West Virginia is a pedestrian 84th in the nation in terms of points per possession allowed. Washington, on the other hand, is 50th in the nation for points per possession allowed and also has better opponents’ effective field goal percentage and opponents’ turnover percentage numbers. West Virginia has a slight edge in rebounding and free throw attempts allowed per game to make it only a 3-2 advantage for the Huskies with respect to the defensive stats.

Considering their respective records and seeds, and the general consensus coming into the tournament, I expected West Virginia to have a more decided statistical advantage. Clearly they do not.

What is also clear, if you watched Washington play last weekend, is that this is not a typical #11 seed. The Huskies dismantled #3 seed New Mexico after winning a hard fought battle with Marquette. The Huskies are not some upstart mid-major team that could become overwhelmed by the moment Thursday night. This team made a deep tournament run last year and apparently just needed some time to get warmed up this season, now in the midst of a season-long 9-game winning streak.

But before we go crowning Lorenzo Romar’s bunch prematurely, understand that West Virginia is the best team Washington will have played this season…and it’s not close.

The Mountaineers navigated a tough conference schedule, won a lot of close games, and have a clutch performing superstar they can lean on in Butler. West Virginia also benefits from the tournament experience of coach Bob Huggins. Mix in the Mountaineers’ depth and the versatility of forwards Kevin Jones and Devin Ebanks and you have a team that is built to survive the rugged, cutthroat nature of tournament basketball.

West Virginia-Washington Prediction: I went into this post thinking I would pick Washington in the upset. Thomas and Pondexter are really good, they are locked in, and Washington is on a roll. The problem is that they are simply facing a team that is too tough, too talented, and too good to be overwhelmed by a two-man show, no matter how good that two-man show is.

West Virginia does enough of the little things right that Washington has no chance of running them out of the gym the way the Huskies did to New Mexico. And if the game is close, a la Washington’s first round matchup against Marquette, the Mountaineers can unleash the late game brilliance of Butler. Regardless, West Virginia will find a way to survive and advance.

West Virginia 74 | Washington 70

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* – Bob Huggins photo credit: The House That Glanville Built

* – Da’Sean Butler photo credit: Andy Altenburger/Icon SM via SI.com