Sweet 16: Louisville-Arizona Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

This post will analyze the Louisville-Arizona game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

Two coaching titans will take to the floor Friday night when the Louisville Cardinals meet up with the Arizona Wildcats.

The Louisville Cardinals are led by Mr. White Suit himself Rick Pitino, a man who was born to be a college basketball coach and who has been successful at every stop along his college basketball path (and we’ll just forget about the whole Celtics thing…).

Pitino went to the Final Four with Providence, led by Billy Donovan and his short shorts. After leaving Providence, Pitino built upon the storied tradition in Lexington by going 219-50 at Kentucky and winning one National Championship, reaching two other Final Fours, two other Elite 8’s, and never losing in the first round of the tournament. And now at Louisville, Pitino is at it again, with a 199-87 record, already one Final Four appearance, and a championship this season in the conference that many have said is the best ever.

The Arizona Wildcats are led by Lute Olson, who has ammassed 781 wins during his storied career, with stops at Long Beach State, Iowa, and Arizona. His Wildcats made the NCAA Tournament every year between 1985 and 2007, winning the National Championship in 1997. And now, Olson has his troops on the precipice of another Elite Ei–

Wait — what? I’m an idiot Midwesterner you say…and Lute Olson isn’t coaching Arizona? And they’re playing in the Sweet 16?! Okay…but who the hell is Russ Pennell?

Well, in the irony of all ironies, here is the first hit for a google search on Russ Pennell’s name: his bio at the Arizona…State website. And here is the Russ Pennell basketball bio, as described by Pat Forde of ESPN:

Until May 2008, he had been out of coaching for four years — working as a radio analyst and directing a basketball academy in Phoenix. Prior to that, he had worked under Rob Evans until he was fired at Arizona State and previously at Mississippi. And there was a two-year stint at Oklahoma State under Eddie Sutton.

Yet here he is in the Sweet 16, a man whose de facto job title is Coach Until He Loses. Now the trick is to beat a couple of coaching legends and remain employed as long as he can.

No matter what, that tenure doesn’t figure to last past April 6. This isn’t a Steve Fisher story, or a Steve Lavin story, or a Mike Davis story. No matter how well he has done in a difficult spot, the interim guy won’t be rewarded with the full-time job.

So, we have a guy who is 8-0 in Sweet 16 games, has 521 victories, and wears badass pimp suits (Pitino), going up against a guy who has 21 career victories, was a radio analyst at this time last year, and who has ostensibly no shot at getting the full-time gig after this season (Pennell).

Oh yeah, this is fair.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to go try and shake the words “a Mike Davis story” out of my head, otherwise I’ll have nightmares tonight.

Louisville v Arizona Sweet 16 Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: Midwest Region Sweet 16 Tickets
• Midwest Regional Breakdown
• Date: Friday, March 27
• TV Time: 7:07 PM on CBS
• Site: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN
• Announcers: Gus Johnson and Len Elmore
• Point Spread: Louisville -9 1/2
• Over-Under: 139
• My prediction: Louisville

Okay, time now to hop on over to the Game Predictor and see what it says about this game. I have a very strong feeling that this will be the most lopsided of the projections, especially considering the seed differential and strength of schedule differential between these two teams.

Here is the breakdown of the five statistical categories we have been analyzing for each game:

• Offensive Efficiency: Louisville – 1.054 | Arizona – 1.095
• Defensive Efficiency: Louisville – 0.878 | Arizona – 1.030
• Assist/TO Ratio: Louisville – 1.244 | Arizona – 1.141
• Free Throw %: Louisville – 0.639 | Arizona – 0.739
• Defensive Field Goal %: Louisville – 0.396 | Arizona – 0.433

Wow…the differential between the two teams in defensive efficiency rating is staggering. Considering Louisville is from the Big East and Arizona is from the Pac-10, it is not all that surprising though. And yes, I am stereotyping and saying that teams eest of the Mississippi tend to play better defense than teams west of it. But that’s an analysis for another day.

Here is the Game Predictor projection for the Louisville-Arizona game:

• Odds to Win Game: Louisville – 86.3% | Arizona – 13.7%
• Most Likely Final Score: Louisville – 75.7 | Arizona – 65.7
• Odds to Cover Spread (Arizona +9.5): Louisville – 51.9% | Arizona – 48.1%
• Confidence Level: 5 Stars

Damn. Looks like Louisville is the favorite huh? Well, like I said, these results are not all that unexpected. And the Game Predictor is obviously quite confident about it, as their confidence level is at 5 stars.

Obviously, I think Louisville will win this game. More importantly, I think they will cover the spread as well.

Arizona is a nice team with a core of talented players, but Louisville is a great team with a great coach. Now, I think Louisville will lose to whoever wins the Michigan State-Kansas game, but I do not think they will have a problem disposing of Arizona. The Wildcats simply do not play the kind of defense that can slow down Terrence Williams, Earl Clark, and the rest of the Cardinal attack. Arizona might be able to keep it close early, but I think this game turns into a 20-25 point blowout in the second half.

It’s been a nice run for Russ Pennell, and the Wildcats have provided a little drama by being the only double-digit seed in the tournament, but let’s not get carried away here. They had a nice victory over #5 seed Utah and then beat a #13 seed (albeit a good and talented one in Cleveland State) in round two. Playing Louisville is a couple notches up the rung and while the Wildcats have the talent to play with Louisville for 40 minutes on a given night, I do not think they have the defensive consistency nor the sideline leadership to warrant the forecast of a close one Friday night.

Friday night, Rick Pitino will move to 9-0 in the Sweet 16 and get one step closer to a Final Four. Russ Pennell will most likely begin his search for another job. But hey — making it to the Sweet 16 as an unlikely head coach for Arizona is a great story for Russ Pennell. Arizona may be able to take his job, but they’ll never be able to take the pleasant memory of this season away.

Who do you think will win the Arizona-Louisville game on Friday night?

• Arizona
• Louisville

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Sweet 16: Duke-Villanova Preview, Prediction, and Analysis

This post will analyze the Villanova-Duke game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

I realize that I am beginning to sound like a broken record, but I can’t wait for this game. When the brackets first came out, a potential Villanova-Duke Sweet 16 matchup was one of the games I circled and that made me pause at length before figuring out who I thought would win.

Now it’s here, and I think it has a chance to be one of the best games of the weekend, Elite 8 included. Here is the quick breakdown of the Villanova-Duke Sweet 16 game:

Villanova-Duke Sweet 16 Quick Preview

• StubHub: East Region Sweet 16 Tickets
• East Regional Breakdown
• Date: Thursday, March 26
• TV Time: 9:57 PM on CBS
• Site: TD Banknorth Garden in Boston, MA
• Announcers: Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery
• Point Spread: Duke -2 1/2
• Over-Under: 148
• My prediction: Villanova

Before we jump into what Game Predictor foretells for this matchup, let me just say that I have become a big fan of Villanova as this season has worn on. I place a high value on guard play and Villanova has one of the best backcourts in America. Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, and Corey Stokes combine for over 35 points a game as part of one of the most balanced attacks in America. They are then complemented by Dante Cunningham, one of the best senior frontcourt players in America. The Wildcats Achilles’ heel is that they do not have great size, but that certainly should not hurt them against Duke.

I am also a big fan of Villanova coach Jay Wright. He has been a Division 1 head coach since 1994 when he started at Hofstra and took them to two straight NCAA Tournaments in 2000 and 2001. In his first three seasons at Villanova, the program was rebuilding and was nothing more than an NIT team. Since 2005, however, Villanova has reasserted itself as one of the top 20 programs in America under Wright. Over the last 5 seasons (including this one), Villanova has made three Sweet 16s and one Elite 8, and Wright has not won less than 22 games in a season while playing in the increasingly competitive Big East.

Oh, and for the record, I really don’t like Duke. It’s nothing personal really (okay, yes it is); and in fact, my affinity for Bob Knight obviously makes me respect Coach K a great deal. But ever since the 1992 Final Four, when I legitimately think that Ted Valentine took the game out of IU’s hands (remember how many key guys fouled out late?) I have focused the resulting vitriol on the damn Dookies, who dominated that era of college basketball. The residue lingers…

So, with all that being said, let’s see how Game Predictor views this game, using the established set of statistical criteria we have been using for each Sweet 16 game:

• Offensive Efficiency: Villanova – 1.076 | Duke – 1.103
• Defensive Efficiency: Villanova – 0.937 | Duke – 0.926
• Assist/TO Ratio: Villanova – 1.141 | Duke – 1.110
• Free Throw %: Villanova – 0.746 | Duke – 0.728
• Defensive Field Goal %: Villanova – 0.406 | Duke – 0.434

Looks pretty close right? Well once again, the seed bias that is becoming obvious in these Game Predictor analyses shows through. There is an automatic strength of schedule analysis factored in, which would obviously be in Villanova’s favor. Considering that, plus the fact that they own 3 out of the 5 categories, I would think the Wildcats would be the pick. Not so much.

• Odds to Win Game: Villanova – 38.4% | Duke – 61.6%
• Most Likely Final Score: Villanova – 66.9 | Duke – 69.4
• Odds to Cover Spread (Nova +2.5): Villanova – 47.3% | Duke – 52.7%
• Confidence Level: 3 Stars

Duke had to go to the final seconds to beat Texas and Game Predictor thinks Duke has a better chance of covering a 2.5 point spread over Villanova? (Of course, Villanova lost to Texas early in the season, so that may not be the best argument for me to use here.)

I wholeheartedly disagree with the Game Predictor on this one.

One very important factor in this game that is not explicitly taken into account in the above analysis is 3-point shooting. Both of these teams are undersized and rely on the 3 as a major part of their offense. For the season, Duke make 262 3-pointers and shot 35.5% from downtown. Villanova made 232 3-pointers and shot 36.5 from downtown.

To analyze, I changed up the stats in Game Predictor and added 3 Point % and defensive 3 Point % instead of Free Throw % and Defensive Field Goal % to see how it might alter the prediction:

I would much rather have added these two stats instead of substituting, but Game Predictor only allows for five stats. Villanova has an advantage in defensive 3 Point % (0.339 to 0.342), in addition to their shooting advantage, but their advantages over Duke in these stats are less than their advantages in Free Throw % and overall defensive field goal %. Hence, the updated analysis (not pictured) has Duke winning by more. With these stats added to the original analysis, there is no doubt Villanova would have inched closer.

So while I like Game Predictor, I oppose their pick on this one.

By no means do I think this game is a slam dunk for Villanova. Duke is a very good team with a tremendous trio of players in Gerald Henderson, Jon Scheyer, and Kyle Singler that is as solid as any trio in the country. And if the Blue Devils are making 3s they will be extremely tough to beat. But like Villanova, Duke is not a team that is going to win games down low. Even Singler, despite his height, seems more comfortable out on the wing.

What will make this game fun is the similarity between the two teams. This game should have absolutely been a pick ‘em game. I don’t know how you favor Duke over Villanova by 2.5 when the teams are so evenly matched. I would take Villanova and the points in a heartbeat, and I expect Villanova to win the game outright.

Who do you predict will win the Sweet 16 game between Duke and Villanova?

• Duke
• Villanova

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Sweet 16: Memphis-Missouri Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

This post will analyze the Memphis-Missouri game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

If John Calipari were to have read MSF over the past couple of weeks, he would know that I was not among those who thought Memphis should have received a #1 seed and that I picked the Tigers to lose in the second round. (And I predicted that loss to come against Cal, who lost in the first round to Maryland. Shows you how much I know.)

Of course, John Calipari has plenty of more important things to do than read our little blog here. On the off chance he did, he would probably just chalk our site up as another one of the haters and naysayers and not give it a second thought. Calipari is a pretty cool customer who does not seem to get rattled or frustrated in the face of people constantly doubting his team, or disparaging its conference and schedule.

Now, if John Chaney read MSF and I had been down on Temple, he might not be such a cool customer…

Video: John Chaney v John Calipari

Forgive me, I had to get that in there. It’s been years since I’ve seen that video, but it never gets old. If only we could have seen how the fight ended up…

But I digress.

Mike Anderson, the coach of Missouri, would probably not think much of this site either. I picked the Tigers to lose in the Big 12 tournament and I predicted a second round loss for them against Marquette. Obviously, neither happened.

So it is with great shame, humility, and surprise that I type this Memphis-Missouri Sweet 16 preview. I did not expect either team to make it this far, yet here they are: my own personal bracket busters duking it out to ensure that I cannot have a perfect Elite 8 this year.

But you know what? I can’t wait for this game. These two teams play an entertaining style of basketball that should make this one of the more exciting Sweet 16 games this year. Here are the particulars for the Mizzou-Memphis matchup later this week:

Memphis-Missouri Sweet 16 Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: West Region Sweet 16 Tickets
• West Regional Breakdown
• Date: Thursday, March 26
• TV Time: 9:37 PM on CBS
• Site: University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ
• Announcers: Dick Enberg and Jay Bilas
• Point Spread: Memphis -4 1/2
• Over-Under: 140
• My prediction (done before looking at the Bracket Predictor): Missouri

Let’s see how the Bracket Predictor sees this game going, based on the five statistical categories I submitted to the prediction engine:

• Offensive Efficiency: Memphis – 1.071 | Missouri – 1.097
• Defensive Efficiency: Memphis – 0.826 | Missouri – 0.913
• Assist/TO Ratio: Memphis – 1.149 | Missouri – 1.541
• Free Throw %: Memphis – 0.695 | Missouri – 0.668
• Defensive Field Goal %: Memphis – 0.366 | Missouri – 0.415

And based on these numbers, plus the strength of schedule factor that is automatically used to calculate the results, the Game Predictor sees the outcome as follows:

• Odds to Win Game: Memphis – 60.7% | Missouri – 39.3%
• Most Likely Final Score: Memphis – 70.6 | Missouri – 67.5
• Odds to Cover Spread (MIZZOU +4.5): Memphis – 42.8% | Missouri – 57.2%
• Confidence Level: 3 Stars

So, the Game Predictor sees this as being a closer matchup than UConn-Purdue and Pitt-Xavier, which one would expect. I am still a little bit surprised that Memphis’ odds are above 60%, and I completely agree that Missouri has a great chance to beat the spread in this one — if not win it outright.

Here is what I did not like about the Game Predictor analysis of this one: the historical comparisons (not shown in the images above). The majority of the teams Missouri was compared to were double-digit seeds. I don’t know exactly how these historical comparisons are generated, but the typical seed differentials of the ten comparisons provided was 6 or 7 seed slots. This game is a #2 seed versus a #3 seed, and two teams that I think are very, very comparable. Luckily, the final projection anticipates a close game that I project to be even closer.

Missouri plays a fast style of basketball, attacking on both ends of the court. I was shocked to see that their Assist/TO ratio is as good as it is. Obviously that number is driven by their great ability to pressure teams into turnovers; but it shows a strong ability on their part to protect the ball as well. Their high offensive rating shows that they are able to turn the majority of those turnovers into points.

Memphis, on the other hand, is not quite as strong in either category but still in the top 15% or so in the nation in both. And their defensive numbers are outstanding, with the best defensive efficiency and defensive field goal % ratings in the nation. My apologies to Coach Cal and the Memphis Tigers: I underestimated your ability on defense, otherwise I just might have had you advancing this far, if not further.

At the end of the day, I look at this game as a toss-up. Tyreke Evans has really improved Memphis as he has become more comfortable controlling the basketball as the season has gone on. He leads the team in points at 16.6 per game and also grabs 5.4 rebounds per. However, he also turns it over 3.6 times per game, only generating an Assist/TO ratio of 1.1/1. Antonio Anderson has been much more steady, with an Assist/TO of 2/1. Against the Missouri press, Evans will have to take better care of the basketball.

For Missouri, DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons must continue to lead with excellent all-around play from the forward slots. If the Tigers can get a performance out of Matt Lawrence like they got against Marquette (16 points) it will make them that much more difficult to overcome.

My gut is still telling me that Missouri is going to win, but obviously the Game Predictor, using the stats I fed it, has a 3 Star confidence level on Memphis. Either way, one of these teams is going to surprise me by making it to the Elite 8, only to have me (most likely) pick against them on Saturday. Luckily for Memphis and Missouri, the opinions of some idiot blogger mean nothing and they have been able to prove their worth on the court.

When these two skilled, athletic, well-coached teams meet up on Thursday, it could very well provide the most exciting game of the weekend.

Unless you picked neither to be here and your bracket is toast.

Then it’s just depressing.

Who do you predict will win the Sweet 16 game between Memphis and Missouri?

• Memphis
• Missouri

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Tyreke Evans photo credit: AP Photo/Nick Wass

Demarre Carroll photo credit: Jon Goering/KANSAN