Start Em Sit Em | Midwest Sports Fans

Attention Fantasy Football Players: Revised Week 9 Outlook for Matt Schaub

November 7, 2009 By Jerod Morris 2 Comments

Earlier this week in my start em, sit em post, I recommended that you should start David Garrard over Matt Shaub in Week 9. I’ll let you read the post to get the full detail of the reasoning, but it boiled down to the following two points:

#1 – the Colts have the 7th best pass defense in the league in terms of yards given up (180.1 yards per game) and have given up the fewest touchdown passes (three). Thus, I looked at Matt Schaub as a shaky start.

#2 – David Garrard and his Jaguars are at home this week taking on the Kansas City Chiefs and their crappy pass defense. Garrard is only playable when he’s at home and this seems like about as plum a matchup as you’ll get if you’re a Garrard owner.

There is a problem though. A couple of them. And I’m changing my vote to Schaub over Garrard for Week 9.

MSF Podcast: Week 5 Fantasy Flash

October 6, 2009 By Jerod Morris Leave a Comment

I am proud to have a new weekly feature to unveil this week for everybody: the Fantasy Flash, a weekly podcast during which Fraschetti and I discuss start ‘ems, sit ‘ems, and sleepers for the current fantasy football week.

Among the topics discussed in this week’s Fantasy Flash:

The top overall scorer may very well come from Sunday night, but will it be Peyton Manning or Chris Johnson?
The Giants are playing Oakland this week: should you start all of New York’s offensive players?
Are there actually some Cleveland Browns offensive players to recommend this week?
What do you do with Donovan McNabb know that he’s back?

Kurt and I both give our prediction for the week’s top scorer, as well as provide two start ‘ems, two sit ‘ems, and two sleepers a piece.

For the record, I tried not to just regurgitate the same information I provide in this week’s start em, sit em post. So even if you read that post, the podcast is still worth listening to.

Here it is. Enjoy:

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Note: If you have any problems with the player above, here is a link to mp3 file and you can also download the MSF Podcast on iTunes.

And please use the comment section if you have additional start ‘em, sit ‘em questions or to provide feedback on the podcast and features you’d like to see for the future.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Sports, Podcast Tagged With: fantasy flash, Fantasy Football, fantasy football week 5, start em sit em

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice and Projections

September 29, 2009 By Jerod Morris 104 Comments

The Week 17 start em, sit em lineup advice post is up.

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Looking back at my Week 3 Start Em, Sit Em post as I begin Week 4′s, and it was a pretty solid week.

The definite hits: Derrick Mason (start), Brent Celek (start), Denver D (start), Carson Palmer (sit), Ben Watson (sit), Donnie Avery (sit).

The definite misses: Trent Edwards (start), Dallas D (sit).

The ones I predicted relatively well but touchdowns (or lack thereof) skewed value: Steve Slaton (start), Cedric Benson (sit).

All in all, a pretty solid week, and hopefully most of the 157 comments on that post led to sound fantasy decision making for everyone.

And now, it’s time to do it all over again.

As we pointed out in our recently posted NFL Week 4 TV schedule, odds, and picks post, the following teams all have byes this weekend: Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Philadelphia Eagles. Obviously keep that in mind when you’re setting your lineups.

And remember: I’m trying to avoid the obvious choices here and instead pinpoint guys that folks might be on the fence about. And as we do every week, I will do my absolute best to answer every question that comes through in the comment section.

[Editor's Note: At some point in the not-to-distant future, MSF will be holding special, "members-only" Sunday morning live chats to help you out with all of your last minute fantasy football decision making. We are going to be hosting these sessions at our new MSF community at Explodium.com.

I'll be writing a post at some point soon telling you about Explodium, but it's pretty badass. When you click on the link, you do have to sign up, but it's free...and trust me, the benefits are there well beyond our Sunday morning fantasy help.]

Now, onto the Week 4 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks:

Fantasy Football: Week 2 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

September 15, 2009 By Jerod Morris 27 Comments

This post is from 2009!

Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports for our Fantasy Football Week 2 Start Em, Sit Em post for 2010.

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I am nothing if not accountable, and I come to you a humbled man this week. I let you and myself down with start ‘em, sit ‘em advice that left much to be desired in Week 1.

Here is the Week 1 start ‘em, sit ‘em column if you’d like to review, but I’ll lay out the hits and misses right here for you.

Start ‘em hits: Vernon Davis…barely, in a PPR league…maybe? (5 catches, 40 yards)
Start ‘em misses: David Garrard (122 yds, 0 TDs); Willie Parker (19 yds, 0 TDs); Braylon Edwards (1 rec, 13 yds, 0TDs); New England D/ST (24 points allowed, 1 turnover)
Sit ‘em hits: Matt Schaub (166 yds, 0TDs); Chris Johnson & LenDale White (8.6 fantasy points combined); Miami D/ST (19 points allowed, 0 turnovers)
Sit ‘em misses: Roy Williams (3 rec, 86 yds, 1 TD); Kellen Winslow (5 rec, 30 yds, 1 TD)

So, not a great start.

In fact, the results of my Week 1 start ‘em, sit ‘em lineup advice reminds me a little bit of the Carolina Panthers…with me playing the role of Jake Delhomme: high hopes, big expectations…and then a depressing thud as interceptions get fired all over the field.

But, in my defense, in the “others” category for start ‘em I did nail all of the three QBs listed — Hasselbeck, Flacco, and Shaun Hill, plus I recommended Julius Jones. And I told you to sit Steve Slaton! That should count for something right?

Umm…no.

We’re all about results here. Like fantasy football, it’s about touchdowns (or LOTS of yards) and I did not get into the endzone enough last week with my primary start ‘em, sit ‘em recommendations at each position. But what we love about sports is that there is always next week…so I am looking forward to Week 2.

I’m here to rebound, both for you and for myself, to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start. And no, I will not give into the temptation to pick obvious ones (start Adrian Peterson against Detroit!) just to pad my stats.

Let’s get right to it.

Fantasy Football

Week 2 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

Week 2 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Quarterbacks

Start ‘Em: Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears (vs Pittsburgh Steelers)

What, am I crazy? Start the guy who had 4 picks on national TV last week against the defending champs and their suffocating defense this week?

I say yes, and there is one primary reason why: no Troy Polamalu.

The lynchpin of the Steelers’ secondary is out with a sprained MCL, which will make Pittsburgh’s D more susceptible to the pass and less dangerous overall. Granted, the Bears’ WR corps leaves a lot to be desired, but I think the determination of Jay Cutler will overcome that.

Cutler may be a bit of a whiny douche, but he’s a very talented and prideful player. He also did not complete a pass to RB Matt Forte in Week 1, and only a single one to TE Greg Olsen, which I have to think will change after taking a look at the film.

The Bears are at home and will do everything to avoid going 0-2. I’m not sold on Cutler as a consistent fantasy starter throughout the season, but I do like him this week despite the matchup.

Others I like: Jason Campbell, Washington (vs St. Louis); Trent Edwards, Buffalo (vs Tampa Bay)

Sit ‘Em: Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts (@ Miami Dolphins)

Let me guess what you are probably thinking right now: this idiot is recommending Jay Cutler as a start against Pittsburgh and Peyton Manning as a guy you should sit? Is he insane?

Well, perhaps.

But I don’t think so in this particular case for this particular week.

Courtesy of Stats Inc. (via Yahoo Sports), Peyton Manning has thrown for 16 TDs and 18 INTs lifetime against the Dolphins. Now, clearly that stat line spans a decade and many different coaches and players for the Dolphins. But considering that Manning will be going into a hornet’s nest (on the road in Miami, home opener for Dolphins, Monday night, team coming off of a bad loss and looking for redemption, etc.) and will not have Anthony Gonzalez, I’m not all that optimistic about his chances.

The Colts offense is becoming a little worrisome. They could not establish a consistent ground attack in Week 1 against Jacksonville, which they need for Manning’s play-action to be effective. Miami, despite its struggles to contain Matt Ryan, did an effective job of limiting the Falcons’ powerful ground attack last Sunday (3.0 yards per carry for Michael Turner).

I think an emotional Dolphins’ D bottles up Manning and the Colts offense, at least enough that he is limited to one TD pass and harassed into a turnover or two. If you have a decent backup for Manning, this might be a good week to use him.

Others I don’t like: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati (@ Green Bay)

Week 2 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Running Backs:

Start ‘Em: Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants (@ Dallas Cowboys)

I liked Ahmad Bradshaw before the season started because he was stepping into a big void of opportunity left by the departure of Derrick Ward. After one game the returns are pretty solid, and I think his matchup on Sunday night against the Cowboys is a good one.

First off, Bradshaw got 12 carries against the Redskins last week, so we can see that some touches will be there. He also carried for 60 yards, a 5.0 yard average, against a pretty good run defense. Plus, he added 3 receptions, to get his total touches up to 15. All in all, a solid first week effort for Bradshaw against a good defense.

With the injury to Danny Ware, the Giants have announced that Bradshaw will be handling kickoff return duties this week, which should net him a few more touches and some extra all-purpose yards against a Cowboys’ special teams unit that was been a pretty significant question mark this offseason.

Most importantly, Bradshaw and the Giants are going up against a defense that is pretty adept at rushing the passer but not quite so adept at stopping the run. Last week, despite being behind most of the game and losing, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers torched the Cowboys on the ground over 160 yards and a pretty hefty per carry average. Cadillac Williams ran for 97 yards on 13 carries and scored a TD, while Derrick Ward ran for 62 yards on 12 carries and also scored.

The Jacobs-Bradshaw combo is just as good and they have a better O-Line than Tampa. I actually like the Cowboys to win this game, but I think the Giants will be able to get some work done on the ground. We certainly know that they will be committed to doing so.

You already know you’re starting Brandon Jacobs, but I wouldn’t hesitate to throw Bradshaw in there as a flex. This a good matchup for him.

Others I like: Thomas Jones, New York Jets (vs New England); Mike Bell, New Orleans (@ Philadelphia…but check on Pierre Thomas throughout the week.)

Sit ‘Em: Julius Jones, Seattle (@ San Francisco)

Yes, Julius Jones had a good game last week, but there are a few things you need to remember:

He’s Julius Jones.
The Seahawks were playing the Rams last week.
The 49ers are coached by Mike Singletary.

If Seattle is going to win this game, they are going to have to do it through the air. I think San Francisco has a chance to have a pretty stout run defense this year, and they gave a glimpse of it last week by bottling up Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells in Arizona. Granted, Tim Hightower had 12 receptions out of the backfield against them, but Jones has never been a guy to catch a lot of passes out of the backfield.

Enjoy it when Julius plays teams like the Rams; otherwise, remember who he is and consider his track record. The 49ers are an up-and-coming team that will be fired up for their home opener. I think Matt Hasselbeck will have to win this one with his arm if the Seahawks are to come into San Fran and get a W.

Others I don’t like: Cedric Benson, Cincinnati (@ Green Bay); Steve Slaton, Houston (@ Tennessee); Kevin Smith, Detroit (@ Minnesota)

Week 2 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Wide Receivers:

Start ‘Em: Terrell Owens, Buffalo (vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

He only had two catches on three targets Monday night, and he’s coming off a toe injury that sidelined him most of the preseason. If you’re a little bit skittish about T.O. right now, you’re well within your right to be so.

But I wouldn’t be skittish about starting him this week against Tampa Bay. And the truth is, you probably spent a high draft pick on T.O. so you may not have any other choice but to start him. (Don’t worry, I’m not taking the easy way out in the WR Sit ‘Em to balance out recommending T.O.)

Trent Edwards and the Bills proved, somewhat surprisingly, that they can move the ball on offense with their performance against the Patriots. And remember that Bill Belichick’s defensive strategy is usually to try to take away the opposing team’s #1 threat. The Patriots did that by doubling and bottling up T.O.

Buffalo plays Tampa Bay last week, which got absolutely shredded by Tony Romo and his trio of WRs last week. I don’t think Buffalo will have that much success against the Bucs, but they’ll get some work done through the air.

And after only being targeted three times in Week 1, you know T.O. will be both motivated and vocal about the need to get him the rock.

His huge games will be fewer and further between this season, but I think this is one of them.

Others I like: Desean Jackson, Philadelphia (vs New Orleans); Brandon Marshall, Denver (vs Cleveland); Percy Harvin, Minnesota (@ Deroit);

Sit ‘Em: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (vs Oakland)

As with T.O., you probably have to start Dwayne Bowe because of where you drafted him. If you have no other options, keep Bowe in the lineup because you have to and he will get his fair share of targets.

But if you’re stacked at WR, this could be a week when Bowe hits your bench as he will be matched up with Nnamdi Asomugha, against whom Bowe has yet to catch a TD pass in his career. Last year, Bowe had 8 catches for 117 yards in two games against Oakland. As a rookie, he had 7 catches for 147 yards.

The weakness of the Oakland defense is their ability to stop the run, although they were more effective than expected in Week 1 against San Diego. And while Philip Rivers completed 24 passes for 252 yards on Monday night, look a little deeper: only 11 of the completions were to WRs, the rest went to RBs and TEs.

There is also flux at the QB position in Kansas City, as well as an entire team getting used to a new offensive system. Bowe had 4 catches and a TD last week with Brodie Croyle at QB, but only tallied 40 yards. Who will be starting this week? Matt Cassel? Croyle?

There are enough question marks surrounding Bowe this week that I’d be wary. He may still garner 5-6 fantasy points because he could accumulate a few catches and some yards, but don’t expect big numbers.

Others I don’t like: Laveraneus Coles, Cincinnati (@ Green Bay); Donald Driver, Green Bay (vs Cincinnati);

Week 2 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Tight Ends:

Start ‘Em: Robert Royal, Cleveland Browns (@ Denver)

If you watched the Browns-Vikings game on Sunday, you noticed a few things:

Brady Quinn often had time to throw, but there rarely appeared to be WRs open down the field.
Quinn and Braylon Edwards simply are not on the same page yet.
Quinn looked in the direction of TE Robert Royal a lot.

In fact, Quinn targeted Royal nine times on Sunday, resulting in four catches, 60 yards, a TD for Royal. With the Browns’ WR corps likely to continue to struggle, and with Quinn’s well-known deficiencies throwing the ball deep down the field, I think Quinn will again be looking at Royal early and often.

Denver did do a nice job of shutting down the Cincinnati tight ends last week, but the Bengals rarely involve their TE anyway so I don’t read too much into that.

The targets for Royal are not going to stop. If you are unsettled at tight end, he could be a solid play through at least the first few weeks of the season, until Brady Quinn can get more comfortable throwing the ball down the field to Braylon and the Browns’ other WRs.

Others I like: Brent Celek, Philadelphia (vs New Orleans); Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay (@ Buffalo); Kevin Boss, New York Giants (@ Dallas)

Sit ‘Em: Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans (@ Philadelphia)

Yes, Shockey caught 2 TD passes last week and is a part of the best offense in the league, so it’s hard to sit him. But his entire value from last week is wrapped up in those TD catches (he had only 4 catches for 31 yards), which are hard to predict and expect from week to week.

Add to that the fact that the Saints are playing a much better defense this week in Philadelphia, and one that is very familiar with Shockey from his days in New York, and I think we could see a reversion to the no-TD Shockey that we became accustomed to during his first season with New Orleans.

And what do you trust more: a 16-game schedule during which he caught no TDs, or one game against a team that’s lost 18 in a row in which he caught two?

I thought so.

With Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, and Robert Meachem all more dynamic downfield playmakers than Shockey, he is the fifth option when Drew Brees drops back to pass. Shockey fattened up against the porous Lions, but this week the law of averages pulls his fantasy numbers back to what we’ve come to expect from him.

Others I don’t like: Owen Daniels, Houston (@ Tennessee); Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler, Denver (vs Cleveland)

Week 2 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em Defense/Special Teams:

Start ‘Em: Green Bay Packers D/ST (vs Cincinnati)

How can you not like the Packers’ D right now? They stifled the Bears in Week 1 and goaded Jay Cutler into 4 interceptions. They also have players like Charles Woodson and Al Harris who are always threats to take one to the house.

The real key, however, is the Packers’ improvement in the front 7 and their ability to stop the run. In Week 1, the Pack held Bears phenom Matt Forte to 55 yards rushing and nada out of the backfield as a receiver.

Cincinnati comes into Green Bay with a far less accomplished and dynamic running back in Cedric Benson. They also have a passing game that struggled against Denver in Week 1 and still looks as if it needs time to get in sync with Carson Palmer back under center and no T.J. Houshmandzadeh on the outside.

I think Chad Ochocinco will get his on Sunday, but that’s about it. Green Bay is one of the emerging contenders in the NFC and they’ll play like it at home against the Bengals.

Others I like: New England Patriots (@ New York Jets); Washington Redskins (vs St. Louis)

Sit ‘Em: Philadelphia Eagles D/ST (vs New Orleans)

This one is all about the matchup.

Philadelphia has a very good defense, forced lots of turnovers last week against Carolina, and will be a solid start most weeks. This week, however, they face the Saints’ juggernaut. And until the Saints and Drew Brees provide a reason to doubt them, I’m sitting any defense that plays against them.

With Troy Polamalu out for Pittsburgh right now, there is no unit in the NFL that I trust more than the Saints’ offense. Sorry Philly.

Others I don’t like: New York Jets (vs New England); Baltimore Ravens (@ San Diego)

It’s early in the week, so obviously injuries could wreak havoc on these predictions, but I’ll update this post if anything pertinent happens. As always, feel free to submit any lineup questions you may have in the comment section and I’ll answer them as soon as I’m able.

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* – Jay Cutler photo credit: Bleacher Report

* – Jeremy Shockey photo credit: Ted Jackson / The Times-Picayune via Nola.com

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Sports, Featured Column Tagged With: ahmad bradshaw, Dwayne Bowe, Fantasy Football, fantasy football lineup advice, fantasy football start em sit em, fantasy football week 2, jay cutler, Jeremy Shockey, Julius Jones, peyton manning, Robert Royal, start em sit em, Terrell Owens, week 2 start em sit em

Fantasy Football: Week 1 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

September 9, 2009 By Jerod Morris 3 Comments

The Week 17 start em, sit em lineup advice post is up.

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Welcome to the first edition of what will be a weekly post here at MSF throughout the NFL season: start ‘em – sit ‘em lineup advice for your fantasy football rosters.

We all know how important overall position rankings are for valuing players on draft day. Typically there are pretty clear tiers of players at each position. Making sure that you get players in certain tiers at appropriate draft positions is a key to maximizing value.

But — and it’s an important but — as you go through the season, weekly values can fluctuate based on a player’s injury, a teammate’s injury, and the opponent for that week.

For a guy like Drew Brees, or most guys picked in the first two or three rounds, it will rarely matter. You lock these guys into your starting lineups and count on them to anchor your team.

For mid- and late-round guys, however, the players who may fill out your #2 RB / WR positions or your flex spot, keeping an eye on fluctuations in expected value on a week-by-week basis is important.

That’s the goal of this post and will be the goal every week.

Follow the links to StubHub for great deals on all NFL tickets or College Football tickets.

I won’t tell you to start Drew Brees; you know that. And if you don’t know that, there is a good chance that you are wasting your time doing research because your team is doomed with your Kotite-level leadership.

On the other hand, maybe you waited to get a QB and your choices are Joe Flacco and Eli Manning. Neither is a clear-cut weekly starter, but will have particular matchups throughout the year that you will want to leverage or avoid.

Please take note: Just because a guy is a “start ‘em” doesn’t mean he should necessarily start for your team. If I say that David Garrard is worthy of a start, it does not mean he should play over Tom Brady or Philip Rivers. And just because I say that Matt Schaub may struggle, it doesn’t mean you should start Shaun Hill over him. Everything is relative and dependent on your roster.Â

We’re all looking for an edge that can help us on weekly basis. I have eight teams this year and obviously want to win with every one of them every single week. This post is my way of using the research I’ve done to help you out as well.

So without further adieu, let’s get right to it: a start ‘em – sit ‘em highlight at each position other than kicker. And obviously we can’t get to every player in this post, so feel free to ask follow-up questions in the comments. I’ll respond as quickly as I’m able all the way up until Sunday morning.

Week 1 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Quarterbacks

Start ‘em:Â David Garrard, Jacksonville (@ Indianapolis)

David Garrard was a major disappointment last year. He threw for only 15 TDs against 13 INTs coming off of his breakout 2007 season during which his QB rating was the third best in the NFL (102.2). I think we may have seen Garrard’s ceiling in 2007, but that does not mean he is not a capable starter in certain spots.

This week is a great matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, primarily because the most important component of the Colts’ D, Bob Sanders, will be unavailable.

I am not a big believer in the Jacksonville receivers, although I do think that Torry Holt will have sneaky good rebound season as the #1 option. Still, despite the Jags’ deficiencies on the outside, Garrard completed 64% of his pass attempts in the preseason and has rumbling bowling ball Maurice Jones-Drew ready to catch 5-6 passes out of the backfield.

I think the Colts will score a lot of points on Sunday and I think the Jags, led by Garrard, will score a bunch too. I don’t think Jacksonville goes into Indianapolis and wins the game, but I do think Garrard is capable of 2 TDs (rushing or passing) and 200+ passing yards. Indy’s D just isn’t that good and Garrard should be able to take advantage and get off to a good start in 2009.

Other guys I like: Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle (vs. St. Louis); Joe Flacco, Baltimore (vs Kansas City); Shaun Hill, San Francisco (@ Arizona)

Sit ‘em: Matt Schaub, Houston (vs New York Jets)

I really like Matt Schaub this year, if he stays healthy. (It is required by law that anyone writing about liking Matt Schaub include the health caveat.) However, I’m not a huge fan of his for this week.

Why? I think the New York Jets’ defense has a chance to be among the top handful of defenses in the NFL with Rex Ryan at the helm.

Certainly we know that the Jets’ D will attack Schaub with a variety of blitzes all game long. This will be a good test as to whether Houston’s offensive line will be up to the task of keeping Schaub upright consistently. If they can, Schaub has a strong enough rapport with Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter to make any defense pay. I am honestly a little worried though that Schaub will get banged around by the Jets and that this could turn into a lower scoring game.

I think Schaub will get a TD somewhere along the line to Andre Johnson, but that might be it. If you have an alternative, this might be a good week to do a little wait-and-see with Houston and Schaub.

Other guys I don’t like: Whoever is starting for Kansas City (@ Baltimore); Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (vs Tennessee)

Week 1 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Running Backs

Start ‘em:Â Willie Parker, Pittsburgh (vs Tennessee)

I chronicled in my Titans-Steelers preview the success that Willie Parker has had coming off of long layoffs either due to the offseason or injury. Parker did not have a good year overall last season, but did start out strong and also played well for a few games after coming back from a midseason injury.

Tennessee has a very good defense, but the Titans are now without Albert Haynesworth. This is a guy who dominated the middle last year while playing for a new contract and it may take the Titans a little while to shore up their front line without him.Â The Titans are, however, very good against the pass, forcing two INTs of Ben Roethlisberger in their meeting last year.Â

I think Pittsburgh and coach Mike Tomlin will want to establish their running game early in the 2009 season and will take advantage of Parker’s fresh legs to do so. You may want to think about trading Fast Willie after Week 3 or 4, because he tends to wind down, but this is a week to take advantage of having him on your roster.

Others I like: Julius Jones, Seattle (@ St. Louis Rams); Felix Jones, Dallas (@ Tampa Bay); Beanie Wells, Arizona (@ San Francisco)

Sit ‘em: Chris Johnson and LenDale White, Tennessee (@ Pittsburgh)

I like both of these guys a lot for the season, just not playing at the NFL’s #1 run defense in their home field on the first night of their title defense.

I touched on the Steelers-Titans game yesterday and discussed the game these two teams played in Week 16 last year. Johnson actually scored a TD and the two combined for a 3.8 yard per carry average, which was 0.5 better than Pittsburgh allowed on the season. That game, however, was in Tennessee. Thursday night’s game is at Heinz Field.

Johnson was probably an early round pick for you, and if so, you may have no choice but to start him. For comparison purposes however, I would seriously consider starting a guy like Felix Jones this week because of the matchup. If you can’t stomach sitting such a high draft pick, I understand.Â But at least take a look at your options.

Chris Johnson and LenDale White will have 15 weeks to offer value against teams other than the Steelers. They might get a TD between them, but who will get it? There won’t be much to go around Thursday night and it will probably be split between them. Stay away if you can.

Others I don’t like: Pierre Thomas, New Orleans (vs Detroit…check his injury status leading up to the game and remember that the Saints have lots of options on offense, so they won’t force it to him if he’s not ready); Steve Slaton, Houston (vs New York Jets); All Cleveland running backs (vs Minnesota)

Week 1 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Wide Receivers

Start ‘em:Â Braylon Edwards, Cleveland (vs Minnesota)

I know that I am often harsh of Braylon on this site, mainly because he killed the Browns and numerous fantasy teams on so many occasions last year. However, while I don’t think Braylon will equal his sterling 2007 stats, I do expect him to rebound in 2009.

This week’s matchup is a good one for Braylon in particular because the Browns are going to struggle mightily to run the ball against the Vikings’ Williams Wall (both are playing) and will obviously have trouble keeping Adrian Peterson in check. The Vikings just are not a good matchup for Cleveland as a team because they are proficient in the areas where Cleveland is weak: running and stopping the run.

I expect the Vikings to get up early and force the Browns, who will most likely have Brady Quinn at the helm, to throw a lot. Braylon Edwards is clearly the #1 option in the Browns passing game, and may be the 1st and 2nd option until another WR or a TE steps up.

He may not catch a high percentage of the balls thrown his way, but I think Braylon will lead the league in targets on Sunday and might even pick up a TD. Braylon will be up and down this season, but the big play capability is always there. In games where the Browns cannot run it he is going to see passes early and often.

Others I like: Desean Jackson, Philadelphia (@ Carolina); Torry Holt, Jacksonville (@ Indianapolis); Derrick Mason, Baltimore (vs Kansas City); Ted Ginn Jr, Miami (@ Atlanta)

Sit ‘em: Roy Williams, Dallas (@ Tampa Bay)

I guess you could call this a case of wanting to see it before I believe it.

As the season goes along, I do think that Tony Romo and Roy Williams will develop a rapport and that Williams can become a decent #2 WR or flex play, but I see Week 1 being much more about Dallas trying to establish an identity as a running team. Plus, with all of the 2-TE sets we’ve heard talked about for this season, I think Jason Witten and Martellus Bennett get their fair share of balls.

Williams has dealt with some injuries this preseason that have hindered his ability to work with Romo. Add to that his extreme struggles last year once he got to Dallas, and I’m just not buying in until I see it.Â

Williams is the Cowboys’ #1 option outside, so he will get targets and could have a decent to solid day. But if you have guys like Braylon Edwards, Chad Ochocinco, Hines Ward, Santana Moss, or others at or right below their class, I would start them and wait for Romo and Williams to prove that they will be the connection everyone thinks they can be.

Others I don’t like: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (@ Baltimore); Lee Evans, Buffalo (@ New England); Bernard Berrian, Minnesota (@ Cleveland)

Week 1 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Tight Ends

Start ‘em:Â Vernon Davis, San Francisco (@ Arizona)

I am really high on Vernon Davis this year, for a number of reasons:

Not unlike myself, he is freakishly athletic.
He seems to have bought into what Mike Singletary is selling.
The 49ers new offensive coordinator has pledged to get Davis more involved in the offense after Davis never saw eye-to-eye with previous OC Mike Martz, for whom he never became a prominent part of the gameplan.

Additionally, I am not a real big fan of Arizona’s defense. Â Remember, the Cardinals did not have that great of a defense in the regular season last year. They are also primed to become the NFL’s annual victim of the Super Bowl loss hangover.

I think the 49ers will run the ball a lot and try to establish a short, ball-control passing game with the underrated Shaun Hill at QB. With Michael Crabtree still being a douchy holdout, and Josh Morgan / Isaac Bruce barely being decent, I think the 49ers have to get the ball into the hands of their most talented, game-breaking receiver. That is Vernon Davis, and I would honestly not be surprised to see him sneak into the top 5 tight ends this year.

Others I like: Kevin Boss, New York Giants (vs Washington); Anthony Fasano, Miami (@ Atlanta); John Carlson, Seattle (vs St. Louis); Jeremy Shockey, New Orelans (vs Detroit)

Sit ‘em: Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay (vs Dallas)

Call it a hunch, or even call it sour grapes after how Winslow’s tenure in Cleveland ended. Either way, I call it a bad matchup against the Cowboys on Sunday.

Byron Leftwich will be starting at QB, and he scares no one. The Buccaneers brought in Derrick Ward in the offseason, have Cadillac Williams back from injury, and still have incumbent RB Earnest Graham on the roster. I think the Bucs try to run early and often, and when they don’t run I think Leftwich looks to Antonio Bryant much more than he looks to Winslow.

The weakness in the Cowboys’ defense is at the corner spot opposite Terrence Newman and the safeties. If Leftwich is going to have success throwing, I think it will be to the outside. Bradie James leads a decent LB corps that should be able to contain Kellen.

Again, I’d make sure you have a solid replacement before benching Winslow. Just don’t be surprised if he struggles.

Others I don’t like: Zack Miller, Oakland (vs San Diego); Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota (@ Cleveland)

Week 1 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Defenses

Start ‘em:Â New England (vs Buffalo)

Much has been made about the demise of the impending Patriots defense with the losses of stalwarts Richard Seymour, Mike Vrabel, Rodney Harrison, and Tedy Bruschi. Certainly this amount of veteran leadership will be missed, but the Patriots have done a good job of bringing in young guys like Jerod Mayo and Brandon Meriweather whose time to step up is nigh.

In reality though, I don’t consider the Patriots a top 10 D anymore. They are a spot-start this season based on matchups, with a great matchup coming in Week 1.Â

Buffalo is without Marshawn Lynch, T.O. has been dealing with an injured toe all preseason, and the Bills fired their offensive coordinator less than two weeks before the start of the regular season. Add all of that up, plus mix in the brilliance of Bill Belichick, and the Patriots make for a solid start on Sunday.

Others I like: Dallas (@ Tampa Bay); San Diego (@ Oakland); New Orleans (vs Detroit…because playing against rookie QBs making their first start is often a recipe for turnovers and TDs); Houston (vs New York Jets…same reason as New Orleans)

Sit ‘em: Miami Dolphins (@ Atlanta) & Atlanta Falcons (vs Miami)

Yes, I know that the Fins have Jason Taylor back, but I am worried about the Dolphins being able to stop Michael Turner and Matt Ryan at the same time. I think this game turns into a shootout on the fast track of the Georgia Dome and I would want no part of either defense.

For the record, I am also worried about the Bears D playing at Green Bay, which appears to be developing an offensive juggernaut. The only thing that kept me from listing them here is the ubiquitous threat of Devin Hester in the return game. We know that the early weeks in a football season are replete with big plays on special teams. If you aren’t confident in Hester taking one to the house though, I’d sit Chicago too.

Others I don’t like: Tampa Bay (vs Dallas)

So there you have it, the Week 1 Start ‘em – Sit ‘em. Hopefully this has assisted you with some of your lineup decisions, and remember to chime in with a question below if you have a specific decision you need help with.

Best of luck in Week 1 everybody!

**********

* – David Garrard photo credit: Reuters / Mark Wallheister via theÂ San Francisco Chronicle

* â€“ James Harrison / Chris Johnson photo credit: Getty images viaÂ ESPN.com

* â€“ Braylon Edwards v Cincy photo credit:Â SortsOfSports.com

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Sports, Featured Column Tagged With: braylon edwards, chris johnson, David Garrard, Fantasy Football, fantasy football lineup advice, fantasy football week 1, kellen winslow, lendale white, Matt Schaub, roy williams, start em sit em, Vernon Davis, willie parker

Week 13 Start Em-Sit Em Live Chat – Fantasy Football Lineup Advice

November 30, 2008 By Jerod Morris 1 Comment

Welcome to the Week 13 Start Em-Sit Em live chat, as our team of fantasy experts here at Midwest Sports Fans offers up fantasy football lineup advice.

It is crunch time for setting your Week 13 rosters, and for many of you the decisions that you make over the next four hours will determine whether or not you continue playing in weeks 14, 15, 16 when your leagues hold their playoffs.

So we decided to hop online this morning and hold a live chat to help you out with all of the last minute questions. Our fantasy coverage has been a little sporadic lately (the fantasy blog will be up and running full-time for next season), but we’re hopeful that we can offer up one or two nuggets of knowledge that help you out this weekend.

Just use the chat window below, send your questions, and come back early and often to see if we’ve responded. We can usually get to questions pretty quickly, but not promises. We are live right now.

If the chat thing doesn’t work, or has disappeared (which happens from time to time), just click on the link below and it will open up in a new window.

Click Here

Week 13 Start Em-Sit Em Live Chat

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Featured Column, Uncategorized Tagged With: Fantasy Football, live chat, start em sit em

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Week 13 Start Em-Sit Em Live Chat – Fantasy Football Lineup Advice

Week 13 Start Em-Sit Em Live Chat

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