As soon as I opened up my big mouth and proclaimed that 2011 was going to be the most prolific fantasy year ever, scoring around the league plummets.  No worries.

At least I had a great week on the predictions front, as I was right on nearly 80% of my picks.

As always, here is a quick look back at last week before we move on to week 7.

Week Six Recap

• Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Best Player/Start Em/Other Guys I Liked - (Hits:  Top 12 for QBs/TEs and Top 30 for RBs/WRs)
• Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Worst Player/Sit Em/Other Guys I Didn’t Like - (Hits:  13th or worse for QBs/TEs and 31st or worse for RBs/WRs)
• Quick Note:  The following players got injured and have been removed from the grading scale for fairness:  Peyton Hillis, Julio Jones

Overall: 30 for 38 (79%)

Best Player Predictions: 4 for 4

• Hits: Tom Brady, Ray Rice, Calvin Johnson, Aaron Hernandez

• Misses: None

Start Em Predictions: 2 for 3

• Hits: Tony Romo, Dez Bryant

• Misses: Benjamin Watson

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 13 for 15

• Hits: Josh Freeman, Michael Vick, Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Adrian Peterson, Mike Wallace, Wes Welker, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, Jimmy Graham, Dallas Clark, Jason Witten
• Misses: Ben Roethlisberger, Curtis Painter

Worst Player Predictions: 3 for 4

• Hits: Miami QB, Mike Thomas, Scott Chandler
• Misses: Jahvid Best

Sit Em Predictions: 2 for 4

• Hits: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jermichael Finley
• Misses: Arian Foster (although I was VERY close…), Steve Johnson

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 6 for 8

• Hits: Matt Schaub, Alex Smith, Sam Bradford, Tim Hightower, Ted Ginn Jr., Randall Cobb
• Misses: Jonathan Stewart, Mark Ingram

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Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em Sit Em

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 7:

• Buffalo
• Cincinnati
• New England
• NY Giants
• Philadelphia
• San Francisco

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Quarterbacks

Projected Best Performer – Tony Romo

Dez Bryant and Miles Austin came back off of injury last week and played very well.  Unfortunately, none of them could get into the end zone against the Patriots’ defense.  Week seven should be a different story as the Cowboys host the hapless St. Louis Rams.  I feel VERY good about this pick – when you can seamlessly insert the word “hapless” into a sentence and nobody disagrees, you know you are in for a good week in fantasy.

Tony Romo Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 380 yards, 4 TDs

Start Em – Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben got off to a great start last week before Rashard Mendenhall got rolling.  Look for Big Ben to have a big day against the very average Arizona secondary.

Ben Roethlisberger Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 295 yards, 3 TDs

Other Start ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Seven:

• Jay Cutler – First of all, he just DOMINATES. Secondly, haven’t you been more and more impressed with him every week?  Tampa Bay is good, but not against the pass (27th in the league), and Cutler has clearly proven that he is an elite QB.  If Mike Martz really HAS solved their offensive line problems with the heavier protection packages, look for Cutler to dominate yet again.
• Matthew Stafford – Atlanta has the sixth worst passing defense in the league…and Calvin Johnson won’t be happy about getting shut out for the first game all year.  Big day for Stafford and Co.
• Drew Brees – He’s amazing…and playing the Colts.
• Matt Hasselbeck – As long as he stays healthy, he should put up some good numbers.  Plus, he’s playing the Texans who are in the bottom half of the league at defending the pass.

Projected Worst Performer – Blaine Gabbert

Rookie…who may not be that good…playing on MNF…against Baltimore.  Yikes.

Blaine Gabbert Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 140 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs

Sit Em – Cam Newton

Coming off of his first rough game of the year, Cam Newton would like to be playing someone soft on the defensive side of the ball.  Unfortunately, he will be facing the Redskins, who are sixth in the league against the pass.  Look for Cam to still get his points (running the ball and maybe scoring a TD or two), but not come anywhere close to the production he had in weeks one through five.

Cam Newton Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 230 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; 40 yards rushing.

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Seven:

• Mark Sanchez and Philip Rivers – San Diego and NY are ranked 1st and 4th against the pass respectively.  Don’t expect either team to really air it out in this one.
• Kevin Kolb – Isn’t it an amazing testament to Dick LeBeau that for years you couldn’t run on the Steelers, and as soon as the league turned pass-happy the Steelers became impossible to pass against?  So far, they are second in the league against the pass, allowing a paltry 5.9 yards per attempt.  Wow.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I agree that Tony Romo is a start this week against the Rams’ secondary, but it should be noted that I was VERY high on Romo last week against New England and he disappointed. I think there are some real confidence issues on the Dallas offense. Watch this game carefully. If Romo doesn’t have a big day with Dez and Miles, and Jason Garrett continues to be a conservative play caller, I’m going to start to worry about Romo’s fantasy potential for the rest of the season.

As for Gabbert, I think you’re over-shooting his potential. One TD against Baltimore? Only in extreme garbage time. (So I guess it’s possible…)

I don’t know if you opinions on Cutler and Cam will be popular, but I agree with them. Sound reasoning on both.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Running Backs

Projected Best Performer – Ray Rice

Monday Night Football against the Jaguars.  Don’t get your hopes up if you have a ten point lead going into Monday if the other guy has Ray Rice.

Ray Rice Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 190 total yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Ryan Torain

Torain got a lot of touches last week, and the Panthers are last in the league against the run.  Torain, and maybe even Roy Helu should have a very good game against the fighting Cam-Cams.

Ryan Torain Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 140 total yards, 1 TDs

Other Start ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Seven:

• Whoever is rushing for TB – Either way, he should have a good game against a poor Chicago front seven.
• Rashard Mendenhall – Back to back productive weeks for the Pittsburgh running game, and finally a good week for Mendenhall, who has been extremely disappointing this season.
• Michael Turner – Detroit’s outstanding defensive line is surprisingly lackluster against the run.  Plus, ATL is trying to get back to their old, conservative ways.  Big day for Michael Turner.

Projected Worst Performer – GB Running Backs

Green Bay’s running backs aren’t good…and Minnesota’s rush defense is really good…and it doesn’t matter because Aaron Rodgers and the Packers simply don’t need to run the ball.

Packers’ RBs Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 65 total yards

Sit Em – Willis McGahee

The Dolphins will be thinking one thing this week: “let’s see if Tim Tebow can beat us.”  They will be stacking the box to stuff the run, and they are already great against the run (third in the league).  This is especially staggering considering they have been so awful this year and have faced offenses that have been conserving leads late in games.  Look for McGahee and Moreno to have very quiet weeks as Miami and everyone else watches to see if Timmy can beat them.

Knowshon Moreno Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 45 total yards

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Seven:

• Adrian Peterson – Green Bay is great against the run…and might be up by 60 points in the first quarter.  Just think about it.
• Rams’ Running Backs – Dallas is #1 against the run…and could be playing with a lead for most of the game.
• Jonathan Stewart – Washington’s defense is solid all over, and Stewart will be left out of the mix this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

First off, just so we’re clear: DO NOT SIT ADRIAN PETERSON. Okay? Under no circumstances does this guy ever come out of your lineup. Is Green Bay a potentially troublesome matchup from a touch perspective? Sure. And are they good against the run? Yes, they’re pretty good. But this is ADRIAN PETERSON. Start him. Always.

Moving on now…

I would never tell anyone to sit Ray Rice, and you shouldn’t. But I am not nearly as bullish as Jon is considering the matchup. Jacksonville is many things, and most of them bad, but their defense is actually pretty good. Rice will find the going tougher than many might think.

As for Torain, I trusted him in Week 6 and he failed me. I still like him going forward, especially with the matchup this week, but just know that whenever you start a running back for Mike Shanahan you are taking on the risk of that running back getting benched for the hot hand. It’s just how it is. Still, Torain is probably a low-top 20 option this week.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer – Megatron

He will be mad after being shut out last week for the first time.  Plus, Atlanta is ATROCIOUS defending the pass (29th in the league for receiving defense).

Calvin Johnson Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 120 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Dwayne Bowe

He’s big, he’s strong, he’s rested, and he’s facing a terrible secondary.  Bowe won’t disappoint his owners in week 7.

Dwayne Bowe Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 130 receiving yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Seven:

• Mike Wallace – He’s a big play machine.
• Greg Jennings – He was left out of the shuffle a little bit last week.  Rodgers will get him involved again.
• Devin Hester – If the Bears run more 7 and 8 man protection schemes, they will have to utilize Hester more because he is one of their only receivers that is explosive enough to beat his man one on one.  Plus, he’s money in the return game.
• Pierre Garcon – His speed and size create matchup problems for the Saints.  Despite a huge drop, he killed them in the Super Bowl and he will do it again this week.

Projected Worst Performer – Mike Thomas

I almost feel bad for the guy.  His team is terrible, his QB is young (and possibly terrible), and he will be facing a tough Baltimore defense on national television.

Mike Thomas Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 4 catches for 30 yards.

Sit Em – Vincent Jackson

A little bit overrated…and facing Darrelle Revis.  Not a good combination.

Vincent Jackson Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 3 catches for 40 yards 

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Seven:

• Larry Fitzgerald – Dick LeBeau will make it his personal mission to ensure that Kolb won’t even have enough time to throw the ball up to Larry.
• Santonio Holmes – Rough week for Sanchez, the Jets’ offensive line, and in consequence, Mr. Holmes.
• Brandon Lloyd – Receivers don’t do much when they switch teams mid-season.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Yes, Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe should both off this week. Solid choices. However, I cannot tell people to sit Larry Fitzgerald. I know the matchup isn’t great and Kevin Kolb is a turd disguised as a franchise QB, but Fitzgerald remains one of the five most talented receivers in football. He can pop for two TDs any week. Play him.

I also am not a big fan of Brandon Lloyd for this week, but I do like him long-term. He is back with Josh McDaniels, and Sam Bradford has been yearning for a true #1 WR, a role that Lloyd can fill. Once Bradford gets healthy and the Rams’ schedule eases up, Lloyd could pay huge fantasy dividends. Buy low, and buy now.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer – Jimmy Graham

He might go for 400 yards against the Colts’ defense.

Jimmy Graham Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 110 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Fred Davis

Look for whoever is playing QB for Washington to check down often and look for Davis on safe, quick passes all day.

Fred Davis Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 8 catches for 95 receiving yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘Em Picks at TE for Week Seven:

• Tony Gonzalez – Matt Ryan will look Tony’s way against the Detroit Defensive Line.
• Greg Olsen – Cam Newton loves him, and he will be one of the only guys that has a good game against the ‘Skins.

Projected Worst Performer – Visanthe Shiancoe

Not a good matchup against Green Bay’s linebackers.

Visanthe Shiancoe Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 2 catches for 20 yards

Sit Em – Dustin Keller

Once again, it’s very hard to choose a TE that will play poorly when most of them seem to be playing so well, but I think Keller and the rest of the Jets’ offense will have a rough game against San Diego.

Dustin Keller Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 4 catches for 50 yards.

Jerod’s thoughts:

It’s very hard to quibble with any of these picks. Jimmy Graham has a ridiculous four straight games with 100 yards receiving or more. That is insane. And despite injuring his coach in Week 6, I’m sure Drew Brees will continue targeting him incessantly this week and beyond. He’s the clear #1 tight end in football right now.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em D/ST

[Editor's note: As always, the D/ST picks are written by Jerod, not Jon.]

Start Em D/ST: Dallas Cowboys

Do you realize the Cowboys D is owned in only 47% of Yahoo leagues? Wow. When was the last time anything associated with the Cowboys was underrated? Folks, you can forget about the porous unit from last year. Rob Ryan has done wonders with this year’s Cowboys. Anchored by the spectacular Demarcus Ware and the emerging Sean Lee, the 2011 Cowboys D is solid. They also have a great matchup in Week 7 against St. Louis. Pick up and start.

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 7:

• The New Orleans Saints defense hasn’t been great this year, but I like a blitz-happy D against the Colts’ Curtis Painter.
• Tim Tebow makes his first start of the season in Week 7. Considering his throwing deficiencies, the Dolphins aren’t a terrible option if the bye week has you desperate.

Sit Em D/ST: Minnesota Vikings

I recommended the Vikings D to a few people last week, thinking they’d have a field day against the Bears’ terrible O-line, but I was proven horribly wrong. So let me state the obvious to make amends: you don’t want to start the Vikings’ D against Aaron Rodgers and the Pack.

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 7:

• The Jets’ D has been shaky this year – don’t let their strong performance against Matt Moore and the Dolphins fool you. Facing Phil Rivers and the Chargers, who are coming off a bye and should have Antonio Gates back, could be trouble for Rex Ryan’s crew.

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That’s all we’ve got for you this week folks. Pose your questions in the comment section and we’ll be here all week to answer. Good luck in Week 7!

Don’t miss the rest of our Week 7 Fantasy Football coverage:

• Week 7 Waiver Wire Advice

Also, don’t forget that if your NFL fantasy team is struggling, or you’re just getting bored with the NFL, our friends over at Daily Joust over weekly college fantasy football games with real money prizes at stake. Check them out:

This game isn’t just a competition of who can play the best, no; it will be a vicious fight for a win between two teams desperate for Ws.

Let’s take a look at why the teams are where they are.

The Miami Dolphins

Besides the winless record they currently hold, the Miami Dolphins have suffered their fair share of injuries and struggles, which have put them far behind the rest of the league’s contenders. In week 4, quarterback Chad Henne suffered a shoulder injury that has ended his season. Matt Moore has taken over for Henne and will start Monday night, and the Dolphins signed Sage Rosenfels to add depth to the position.

Everyone can see that the Dolphins aren’t getting quite the numbers they thought they were going to with the addition of Reggie Bush before the season. In four games, Bush has only rushed for 119 yards on 40 carries. Rookie Daniel Thomas, who has shown flashes of his potential, has struggled with injuries, leaving few options for this Miami team.

For some added drama and mystery, wide receiver Brandon Marshall expects to be ejected in Monday night’s game. How? I’m not really sure. But he did mention that he’s going to just have fun. I’ll let your imagination do the rest.

The good news for the Dolphins is that with Coach Tony Sparano, the team is 3-0 playing in Jets’ territory.

The New York Jets

The Jets have home field advantage, except they are playing the Dolphins, who happen to do quite well at Met Life Stadium. The Jets this year look a little different than the Jets who fought the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Championship game, and teammates are starting to get frustrated with eachother.

Wide receiver Santonio Holmes expressed the need to incorporate more deep passes into their offense. Of course if the Jets want to do that, they need to protect quarterback Mark Sanchez to avoid pressure, panic, and interceptions. The offense is really where this team is struggling. Sanchez has a completion percentage of 56.1 and has been sacked 13 times. Plus, the Jets are lacking depth at positions like right guard and left tackle. Surely this doesn’t help Sanchez’s situation and ability to make plays happen.

If your offense can’t score, then you have to rely on your defense, right? Unfortunately, the Jets defense is not talented enough, or at least not performing well enough this season, to do all the magic.

If you have been living under a rock for the past week, you should probably take note that wide receiver Derrick Mason was traded to the Houston Texans. This sent an expected shock through the team. Statistically, receivers Dustin Keller and Holmes don’t really look that much better, and they have an extra game under their belt.

Dolphins-Jets Prediction

Both of these teams have experienced their fare share of drama this season. Mental game seems to be the most significant challenge for both of these teams, as both have talent.

I am going to have to go with Jets on this one.

Miami will be fighting, and fighting hard, to get their first win. You know they are hungry for it. The Dolphins have had the bye week to prepare Moore for the starting quarterback position and to help adjust the rest of the team to his playing style. Marshall says he wants to just have fun, and sometimes fun brings out the best in players, allowing them to succeed more than when they are under immense amounts of stress to win. As long as he avoids the ejection, he has the ability to put up some good numbers even with Darrelle Revis on him.

While they are in a rut, the Jets probably have better players. The Mason trade may or may not have helped bring them together, and there is a chance that all of the controversy this week could make the team not be as focused as they should be. However, the flaws of the Dolphins will outdo those of the Jets. The New York O-line might actually stand a chance, allowing Sanchez to make plays and get Holmes those deep passes he’s been anticipating.

The Dolphins bye week might have made them sharper, but I have a feeling it didn’t make them better.

New York Jets 21 | Miami Dolphins: 10

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Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

• Dolphins-Jets Date, Time, and TV: Monday, October 17th at 8:30 ET on ESPN
• Dolphins-Jets Announcers: Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, and Ron Jaworski
• Dolphins-Jets Point Spread: Jets -7
• Dolphins-Jets Over-Under Odds: 42.5

Because we at MSF try our best to get you our Start Em, Sit Em picks before everyone else, we have to take a few chances. One of the downsides to coming out with these picks on Tuesday is that we won’t know all of the injury updates that come out later in the week. We answer your questions and update our predictions accordingly as more information comes out.

However, a few predictions didn’t pan out this week because of injuries (either during the game, or because guys with nagging injuries didn’t end up suiting up on Sunday)…so out of fairness to me, we are going to throw out Michael Vick, Felix Jones, and Dez Bryant.

So besides those guys who caught the injury bug, I went 29 out of 46 overall…a little under 65%. I improved from week one…and that’s exactly what you should try to do from week to week in fantasy.

If you missed the $250 MSF Week 1 Freeroll Challenge at FanDuel, shame on you. But the good news is that we’ll be doing another one in Week 3! Details to come soon.

Click here to sign up at FanDuel to play the best weekly fantasy football game around.

Fantasy Football Week Three

Also, don’t miss Andy Bottoms’ Week 3 waiver wire advice!

Week Two Recap

Best Player Predictions: 2 for 3
Picks: Ray Rice, Megatron, and Jermaine Gresham (Michael Vick)
Calvin Johnson had two TDs, and Rice still put up 15 fantasy points in a horrible week for Baltimore. Gresham, however, was a complete no-show. Unfortunately for him, AJ Green announced himself to the world this week, and Gresham didn’t get a lot of targets.

Start Em Predictions: 2.5 for 4
Picks: Tony Romo, Shonn Greene, Jabar Gaffney, and Dallas Clark
Romo was an absolute “hit” of a pick…and he didn’t even play the whole game. However, Greene, Gaffney, and Clark were all lukewarm. None of them killed you if you started them, but none of them really went out and crushed it either. Greene and Clark both got TDs to salvage their days, and Gaffney had a solid amount of yards with no TDs. I’m giving myself 1/2 points for all three of them.

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 13 for 17
Hits: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Darren Sproles, LeSean McCoy, Hakeem Nicks, Miles Austin, Jason Witten, Dustin Keller, and Aaron Hernandez
Misses: Kerry Collins, Devin Hester, Jacoby Jones, and Ed Dickson

Worst Player Predictions: 3 for 4
Picks: Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams, Mike Thomas, and Brandon Pettigrew
Completely missed on the Auburn alum…and completely nailed the other three. I still find it hard to believe that Cam Newton is going to be doing this all year, but he is definitely worth a look right now, especially if you need a solid backup. Also, since I live in Charleston, SC, and am forced to have every single second of every Panther game shown to me on tv, I have to say I’ve loved the young guy’s attitude in both losses this year.

Sit Em Predictions: 0.5 for 4
Picks: Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Santonio Holmes, and Scott Chandler
Holmes scored a TD to salvage an otherwise mediocre day, so I’m giving myself a half point on that one. Other than that, Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Chandler were all misses.

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 8 for 14
Hits: Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford, Colts’ RBs, LaDainian Tomlinson, Mark Ingram, Mike Thomas, Ben Watson, Greg Olsen, Todd Heap
Misses: Matt Hasselbeck, Sam Bradford, LeGarrette Blount, AJ Green, Steve Smith 1.0, and Dwyane Bowe.

On to Week Three!

Just a little clarification… “Top Performer” predictions can be anybody…I can put Tom Brady in there every single week if I want to (and by the looks of it, I may just have to do that). However, “Start Em” guys will be QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25 at their position (unless, for some reason, a lot of people are predicting them to have a terrible week and I disagree). “Sit Em” guys will be QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25 at their position.

Again, the goal of this article is to help you with the FRINGE guys…any idiot could sit down and predict, with great accuracy, that the top 10 fantasy QBs will have good weeks. At MSF, we try to help you with the difficult choices.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Quarterbacks

Projected Best Performer: Tom Brady
What? You were expecting someone else? It’s possible it will be incredibly windy in Buffalo this weekend…unfortunately, that is the Bills’ only hope at slowing down Justin Bieber on Sunday.

Tom Brady fantasy football Week 3 projection – 390 yards; 4 TDs, 1 INT

Projected Worst Performer: Matt Cassel
He’s been awful so far this year…and now he will be playing without his best offensive weapon against a team that will be trying to exact revenge after making so many dumb mistakes against the Pats last week.

Matt Cassel fantasy football Week Three projection – 195 yards; 1 TD, 3 INTs

Start Em QB: Rex Grossman
This is a combination of two things: I actually really like what Grossman has done so far this year; and the Cowboys’ secondary is terrible. The possibility exists that Washington will be in for a tough game on the road in Dallas, but I don’t think it will affect Grossman’s numbers very much on Monday Night.

Rex Grossman fantasy football Week 3 projection – 330 yards; 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other Start ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• Philip Rivers – Always.
• Matt Stafford – As long as he’s healthy.
• Cam Newton – Home against Jacksonville…he should have a very solid day again.
• Matt Ryan – Big game against Tampa Bay.

Sit Em QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick
This might not sound like a huge leap of faith, but Fitzpatrick is currently the fifth overall ranked fantasy QB, and New England’s pass defense isn’t exactly spectacular. Nevertheless, I really don’t like Fitzpatrick this week.

If the Bills end up trailing by 14 or more early on (I think they will), Fitzpatrick won’t have the time to sit back in the pocket like he did against Oakland this week. NE will get him uncomfortable, and force him into a few more mistakes than normal.

Ryan Fitzpatrick fantasy football Week Three projection – 230 yards; 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other Sit ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler – (Relatively to what they will normally do)…I think the GB/CHI game will be a lot uglier than what people will be expecting.
• Donovan McNabb – Against Suh…yikes!
• Kerry Collins – Maybe the last game of his career.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Running Backs

Projected Best Performer: Maurice Jones-Drew
Mo-Joe should get lots of carries if and when Blaine Gabbert starts on Sunday, and he will probably be fantastic until he dies in week 5 due to being unbelievably over-worked for the past twenty years.

Maurice Jones-Drew fantasy football Week 3 projection – 140 Rushing Yards, 1 TD; 85 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Projected Worst Performer: Colts’ RBs
They are awful…and they will be playing Pittsburgh. There’s just nothing to like about the Colts’ offense this week.

Joseph Addai and Delone Carter fantasy football Week Three projection – 28 Rushing Yards TOTAL

Start Em RB: Rashard Mendenhall
I’m really down on Mendenhall this year, but against the Colts on Sunday Night, he will haul a lot people back onto his bandwagon.

Rashard Mendenhall fantasy football Week 3 projection – 115 Rushing Yards; 45 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• LeSean McCoy – Maybe no Vick…maybe tons of stats for the RB.
• Fred Jackson – Gets a surprising amount of yardage on the ground against NE.
• Ray Rice – Could be the overall top performer against St. Louis.
• Shonn Greene – The second of like six or seven straight great weeks for him.

Sit Em RB: Jahvid Best
I think the Lions will do pretty well against Minnesota this week, but I don’t necessarily love the matchup for Best. The Vikings’ D-Line is still solid, but more importantly, they have shown to be vulnerable in the air. Megatron and his friends will be targeted early and often…and for good reason.

Jahvid Best fantasy football Week Three projection – 45 Rushing Yards; 45 Receiving Yards

Other Sit ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• Adrian Peterson – Ndomakong Suh (you’re still starting him of course, but temper expectations)
• Darren McFadden – Not against the Jets. He may break one big reception, but otherwise, he will be bottled up.
• Packers Running Backs – The platoon is killing both of them…and neither will run well in Chicago.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer: Brandon Marshall
Marshall will most likely be playing in an ugly game at Cleveland. Both teams will try to run the ball quite a bit in order to control the clock, and the passing games will be left out a little bit. That won’t be a problem for Marshall though. He will create matchup problems for the undersized Cleveland secondary all day, and while the Dolphins may lose, Marshall should have a big day.

Brandon Marshall fantasy football Week 3 projection – 8 Catches for 165 Yards and 1 TD.

Projected Worst Performer: Denarius Moore
Revis Island. Moving on.

Denarius Moore fantasy football Week Three projection – 1 Catch for 9 Yards

Start Em WR: Santana Moss
Moss is quietly having a very solid fantasy season once again. At this point, he is the 27th ranked WR, and he only has one TD meaning his value hasn’t been super inflated. He should have a great game against the soft Dallas secondary, and if the game turns into a high-scoring affair, Moss will get a lot of targets. Surprisingly, he’s still Washington’s big-play guy at this point in his career, and I expect him to break a couple on Monday Night.

Santana Moss fantasy football Week 3 projection – 9 Catches for 140 Yards and 1 TD.

Other Start ‘em WRs for Week 3:

• Reggie Wayne – The only Colt player that will have a good week.
• Larry Fitzgerald – He is becoming more comfortable with Kolb…look out.
• AJ Green – I think he’s one of the top 5 talented WRs in the league already…and I’m not kidding. Just watch this. Plus, it looks like Andy Dalton knows that now as well.
• Steve Smith 1.0 – If Cam has a big day, Steve will have a big day.

Sit Em WR: Dwayne Bowe
Just a bad day to be a Chiefs fan. Cassel will most likely struggle, and San Diego will concentrate on shutting Bowe and the running game down. Last year against San Diego, Bowe combined for 2 catches and 16 yards…that’s the TOTAL for both games. Be very careful before Tasting the Dwayne Bowe this weekend.

Dwayne Bowe fantasy football Week Three projection – 3 Catches for 30 Yards.

Other Sit ‘em WRs for Week 3:

• Julio Jones – I still don’t think he’s that good. He may break out in week 8, but he’s way too inconsistent to be looked at this early in his career. Just click on this article for proof.
• Jeremy Maclin – He and DeSean Jackson are just too inconsistent…but I think it’s Jackson’s turn this week to have a big week and Maclin will be left out.
• Santonio Holmes – Keller and Plaxico are options 1 and 2 in the red zone for the Jets right now. And Greene is probably #3.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start em, Sit em Projections: Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer: Rob Gronkowski
This is a no-brainer. Hernandez is banged up and will miss a few games. Gronkowski may go for 400 yards in this offense right now.

Rob Gronkowski fantasy football Week 3 projection – 9 Catches for 145 Yards and 2 TDs.

Projected Worst Performer: Todd Heap
There is a reason that Baltimore let him go so easily…and you should let him go as well.

Todd Heap fantasy football Week Three projection – 0 Catches

Start Em TE: Brent Celek
If Vick is banged up and can’t go, or even if he is healthy but playing a little more conservatively, Celek should have a big game. Currently, he sits 30th overall in the TE rankings, but Celek owners should look forward to this Sunday.

Brent Celek fantasy football Week 3 projection – 8 Catches for 85 Yards and 1 TD.

Other Start ‘em TEs for Week 3:

• Dustin Keller – Quickly becoming the Sanchize’s favorite target.
• Tony Gonzalez – He’s still got a little left in the tank…I was wrong.
• Jermaine Gresham
• Owen Daniels – High scoring affair against New Orleans…Schaub will look to him often to beat the Saints’ blitz.

Sit Em TE: Dallas Clark
I just hate the matchup. Polomalu will be ranging all over the middle of the field, and Collins will be on his back for much of the game. Clark may be needed to pass block more than normal, and he just won’t be able to get into the game at all.

Dallas Clark fantasy football Week 3 projection – 5 Catches for 40 Yards and 1 Fumble

Other Sit ‘Em TEs for Week 3:

• Scott Chandler – Don’t chase Touchdowns! They will end up disappointing you.
• Jimmy Graham – One of those weeks that Brees finds everybody but him.
• Ben Watson – The classic “I scored a TD early and I look better than I really am” guy. Take it out, and you have a guy with 6 catches for 61 yards. Not terrible…but not a starter in a league with less than 25 teams.

Good Luck in Week Three!  As always, feel free to ask questions in the comment section, or on my twitter (@The_Dr_Twitch) or to our MSF Fantasy Twitter account (@FantasyMSF).

**********

Stay caught up with all of our Week 3 fantasy football analysis:

• Week 3 Start em, Sit em Projections
• Week 3 Waiver Wire Advice
• Week 3 Stats to Know
• Week 3 Fantasy Football Talk Start/Sit Podcast
• Week 3 Player Rankings at QB, RB, WR, TE, K, and D/ST
• Week 3 Sleeper Picks

[Editor's note: this was originally published on September 13th, but I'm bringing back to the front of the site for easy Sunday morning access.]

If there is one word of advice I could give you before week two of your fantasy league this year, it would be this: “Don’t overreact. Panic time doesn’t hit until week 4.”

Every player is due to have a bad week or two; and luckily for Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson owners, they already got one of theirs out of the way.

Does that mean that we should take nothing from week one? Of course not. It’s possibly time to drop Colts’ players not named Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark.

But don’t go scrambling for Cam Newton just yet.

If you missed the $250 MSF Week 1 Freeroll Challenge at FanDuel, shame on you.

Click here to sign up at FanDuel to play the best weekly fantasy football game around and so you don’t miss the next MSF Freeroll (likely Week 3)!

Fantasy Football Week 2 Start Em, Sit Em

Week 1 In Review

Before we move on to this week’s Start Em, Sit Em picks, let’s recap how we did last week.

Of course, it would be impossible to be right on EVERY guy every single week, but as Jerod always stressed to you the last two years: I would encourage you to at least look at the reasoning behind each pick. For instance, I let my emotions get the better of me when thinking about QBs last week, and it showed when I completely whiffed on Mark Sanchez and Joe Flacco. However, I didn’t miss on a single Colts’ player as I predicted a great game from Reggie Wayne and nobody else.

Overall, I went 28 1/2 out of 50…a little under 60%. Let’s do better this week!

(Important note: “Best Player Prediction” will often be someone that is a no-brainer to start. I’m just trying to predict who will have the biggest week. I try to choose guys for the Start Em/Sit Em portion that are actually on the line between starter and bench player. Any idiot could tell you to start Aaron Rodgers every week and have nearly 100% success rate…but that wouldn’t help anyone.)

Best Player Predictions: 2 for 4

Picks: Phillip Rivers, Jamaal Charles, Larry Fitzgerald, and Jason Witten.

Two great games from Rivers and Witten…and two fantastic flops on Charles and Fitzgerald. The KC game was surprising, and Charles actually put up some decent numbers despite trailing the entire game…but the Fitzgerald thing might be a little worrisome. I still think he and Kolb will end up having good years, but it might take a few more weeks to develop some continuity.

Worst Player Predictions: 1 for 3

Picks: Chad Henne, Fred Jackson, and Dwayne Bowe. (No tight end chosen)

Fred Jackson had a solid game, and Henne was obviously a fantasy stud despite his team getting manhandled by New England, but Bowe started off 2011 with a big thud.

Start Em Predictions: 3 for 4

Picks: Ben Roethlisberger, Tim Hightower, Reggie Wayne, and Aaron Hernandez.

Roethlisberger was a fantastic flame-out. He played worse than he has in over a year, and the Ravens defense looked feisty yet again. However, Hightower had a solid game and Hernandez and Wayne were both top five guys at their position. At least I seem to have the Colts’ picks on lock down…it’s probably the only part of the Colts’ season that will bring me joy this year.

Sit Em Predictions: 1 1/2 for 4

Picks: Tony Romo, Ray Rice, Dez Bryant, and Jermichael Finley

Romo and Rice both had fantastic fantasy days. If anything, Rice just showed us that he is worthy of consideration as the #1 overall running back. If he can do that on Pittsburgh’s defense…look out. Jermichael Finley got in the flow early, but only ended up with 3 catches without a TD. Bryant was a mixed bag. He was fantastic early…until Revis switched over on him. So my prediction came true…eventually. Bryant still ended up with 70 yards and a TD before Revis switched over though, so I’m only giving myself a half point.

Other Guys I Liked: 11 for 19

Hits: Tom Brady, Colt McCoy, Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, LeSean McCoy, Peyton Hillis, Megatron, Brandon Marshall, Percy Harvin, Vernon Davis, Jimmy Graham, and Greg Olsen.

Misses: Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Mario Manningham, Roddy White, Owen Daniels, and Brandon Pettigrew.

Other Guys I Didn’t Like: 10 for 16

Hits (Not Including Manning and Foster which were slam-dunks because they did not play): Rashard Mendenhall, Knowshon Moreno, Colts’ Running Backs, LeGarrette Blount, AJ Green, Santonio Holmes, Mike Thomas, Zach Miller, Marcedes Lewis, and Dallas Clark.

Misses: Michael Vick, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, Greg Jennings, Anquan Boldin, and Tony Gonzalez.

###

Now onto the Week 2 picks!

Fantasy Football Week Two Start Em, Sit Em: Quarterbacks

Projected Best Performer: Michael Vick

Vick will be visiting Atlanta for the first time since he was in prison. He will be playing on a fast surface, in front of a raucous crowd, against a defense that barely put up any resistance against a Bears’ team with less weapons this past weekend. Look for Vick to have one of his “I’m winning this week for you singlehandedly today” fantasy weeks.

Michael Vick fantasy football Week 2 projection - 290 Passing Yards with 2 TDs, 108 Rushing Yards with 2 TDs

Projected Worst Performer: Cam Newton

I actually think Newton will become a good player in this league. But in his second week ever? Against the defending Super Bowl Champions? Against those DBs? AND those LBs? Forget about it.

Cam Newton fantasy football Week 2 projection – 118 Passing Yards with 1 TD and 3 INTs, 4 Rushes for 18 Yards

Start Em: Tony Romo 

Despite being on everybody’s hate list this morning, Romo played a great game Sunday Night against one of the best pass defenses in the league…for 55 minutes. Even with the fumble and terrible interception, he was still a top ten QB in week one. Look for him to come out this week with something to prove on the road in San Francisco.

The 49ers are improved, but the Cowboys’ will have too many weapons on the offensive side of the football. The man everybody loves to hate will definitely bounce back in week two.

Tony Romo fantasy football Week 2 projection – 330 Passing Yards, 3 TDs

Other QBs I Like in Week Two:

• Jay Cutler and Drew Brees (shootout in New Orleans)
• Tom Brady and Philip Rivers (shootout in NE)
• Matthew Stafford (against KC…huge game)
• Kerry Collins (yes, really. He will get a lot of yards against a Browns defense that will be much better against the run in week two.)

Sit Em: Matt Ryan

Saying that I didn’t like what I saw in week one against Chicago would be an understatement. Obviously, you don’t want to overreact after one week, but Ryan has always been one of those guys that was a much better QB in real life than in Fantasy. During week one, he didn’t even look good in real life.

If the Eagles come out and put on a full court press like I think they might, the Dirty Birds could be looking at 0-2…just like Matty Ice owners.

Matt Ryan fantasy football Week 2 projection - 210 Passing Yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other QBs I Don’t Like in Week Two:

• Donovan McNabb (he won’t be starting by week five)
• Sam Bradford (banged up and playing AT New York)
• Matt Hasselbeck (against Baltimore with almost no weapons outside of Kenny Britt).

Fantasy Football Week 2 Start Em, Sit Em: Running Backs

Projected Best Performer: Ray Rice 

Dear Ray Rice,

I’m sorry I ever doubted you. You are the best running back in fantasy this year. Have fun against Tennessee.

Sincerely, Jon

Ray Rice fantasy football Week 2 projection – 150 Rushing Yards, 1 TD; 48 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Projected Worst Performer: DeAngelo Williams

Is it too early to be talking about “worst contracts in history?” It is? Ok. Well then let’s just say this: if Williams couldn’t run against Arizona, there is no way on earth he’s doing anything against BJ Raji, Clay Matthews, and the rest of the gang in Green Bay.

DeAngelo Williams fantasy football Week 2 projection - 38 Rushing Yards; 12 Receiving Yards

Start Em: Shonn Greene

While the Jets got out of Sunday Night with a win throwing the ball often, I think they will get back to their roots against Jacksonville this week. Mark Sanchez looked great against a secondary that was beyond banged up, and it will only help the Jets’ running game in the future as they hope to become a more balanced attack. All that said, Rex Ryan loves to pound it out on the ground, and that’s what Shonn Greene will do in Week 2.

Shonn Greene fantasy football Week 2 projection – 114 Rushing Yards, 1 TD

Other RBs I Like in Week Two:

• Matt Forte (could be turning into Marshall Faulk in Chicago)
• Darren Sproles (maybe the quickest guy since Barry Sanders…he will give Chicago fits)
• Felix Jones (gets a lot more opportunities against SF)
• LeSean McCoy (always…but still…I REALLY like him this week).

Sit Em: Michael Turner

Last year, he only had 49 yards TOTAL against this same Eagles’ team. Look for more of the same this year. If Atlanta starts trailing in this game (and I think they will), Turner will take a back seat…and crush your hopes for a win in week two.

Projection - 46 Rushing Yards; 10 Receiving Yards

Other RBs I Don’t Like in Week Two:

• Colts Running Backs (not even a little bit)
• LaDainian Tomlinson (week one is the best you will get from him this year…and it was only 8 points)
• Mark Ingram (just too many guys in NO)
• LeGarrette Blount (I think TB airs it out a little more in Minnesota)

Fantasy Football Week 2 Start Em, Sit Em Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer: Calvin “Megatron” Johnson

The dude is just unstoppable right now. If KC’s defense looks AT ALL like they did in week one, Johnson should have another monster day.

Calvin Johnson fantasy football Week 2 projection  - 8 Catches for 140 Yards and 2 TDs

Projected Worst Performer: Mike Thomas

Revis Island. Moving on.

Mike Thomas fantasy football Week 2 projection - 2 Catches for 14 Yards

Start Em: Jabar Gaffney

He only had 3 catches for 54 yards in week one, but he was targeted by Rex Grossman seven times. The two clearly have a strong history together, and they should be able to connect a lot against Arizona’s atrocious pass defense (they were 8th worst in the league last year and that was before losing DRC).

Jabar Gaffney fantasy football Week 2 projection - 6 Catches for 105 Yards and 1 TD

Other WRs I Like in Week Two:

• Jacoby Jones (very solid #2 emerging in Houston)
• Devin Hester (big day in NO)
• Hakeem Nicks (he’s just really good…assuming he’s healthy)
• Both Cowboys’ WRs (big day for Romo = big day for them).

Sit Em: Santonio Holmes 

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Plaxico Burress actually looked really good on Sunday night. More importantly, Sanchez was looking his way in the red zone on a regular basis. Holmes will still get a lot of targets throughout the game, and will probably be a possession guy for the Jets, but Plax and Keller are both better options in the red zone, and Holmes might be the odd man out in the end zone.

Santonio Holmes fantasy football Week 2 projection-  6 Catches for 48 Yards

Other WRs I Don’t Like in Week Two:

• AJ Green (not with those QBs against Champ Bailey)
• Mike Thomas (Revis Island)
• Steve Smith 1.0 (not against GB)
• Dwyane Bowe (his owners will begin to start freaking out).

Fantasy Football Week 2 Start Em, Sit Em Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer: Jermaine Gresham

Dude is really talented, and he will get lots of looks with a young QB at the helm. Also, Denver’s secondary isn’t exactly scary, and Gresham will take advantage.

Jermaine Gresham fantasy football Week 2 projection  - 88 Yards and 1 TD

Projected Worst Performer: Brandon Pettigrew 

It looks like Tony Scheffler will be the big play TE in Detroit, and with Megatron and Burleson also stealing balls. There just isn’t much to go around for the talented big man.

Brandon Pettigrew fantasy football Week 2 projection - 4 Catches for 30 Yards

Start Em: Dallas Clark

Dallas had a bad first week, but don’t expect to see it happen again. The Colts will try to get the ball out quicker against the Browns, and get Collins some confidence early on. Joe Haden will probably do a reasonably good job of slowing down Reggie Wayne as well, and that will give Clark a lot more opportunities against the Browns.

Dallas Clark fantasy football Week 2 projection  - 9 Catches for 70 Yards and 1 TD

Other TEs I Like in Week Two:

• Jason Witten (big day for Dallas)
• Dustin Keller (good for 1 TD at least)
• Ed Dickson (crazy athleticism…could have a big season)
• Aaron Hernandez (he’s just really good).

Sit Em: Scott Chandler

One of the first rules in Fantasy is that you can’t “chase touchdowns.” While it looked like Chandler had a fantastic opener against KC, he would have had less than 5 points without both TDs. Don’t be fooled – more than likely, he won’t repeat the formula this week.

Scott Chandler fantasy football Week 2 projection  - 2 Catches for 28 Yards

Other Guys I Don’t Like:

• Ben Watson (will have to play more pass protection against Freeney/Mathis)
• Greg Olsen (Green Bay Packers)
• Todd Heap (might not even be the #1 TE in Arizona right now).

Jerod and I will be monitoring the comments all week, and someone will be here Sunday morning to help out with your last minute lineup questions. Best of Luck in Week Two!

The first week was full of hard-hitting action and high scores, and with that combination comes the injuries. Here’s your injury update to make sure your second week goes better than my first!

AFC North Fantasy Football Injury Updates

Baltimore Ravens

Wide receiver Lee Evans from the Baltimore Ravens was spotted in a boot early this week after having zero catches against the Pittsburg Steelers. However, John Harbaugh claimed he was ready to go after practicing in full the past two days. Expect Evans to play against the Tenenssee Titans on Sunday.

Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals’ quarterback, Andy Dalton was cleared to start Sunday’s game against the Denver Broncos. Dalton, who was hit on his throwing arm during week 1′s game against the Cleveland Browns, has not officially been named the starter but speculation from media sources assume he will.

AFC South Fantasy Football Injury Updates

Houston Texans

Arian Foster, running back for the Houston Texans, will play at Sunday’s game against the Miami Dolphins. According to NFL.com, Foster might be limited on the amount of playing time he gets to slowly ease him back into the game after his hamstring injury. If you are expecting big points from him, you might want to rethink your strategy for week 2.

Don’t expect Derrick Ward of the Texans, to play. From the team website, they noted Ward is out and probably won’t even make the trip.

AFC East Fantasy Football Injury Updates

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Steve Johnson is dealing with a nagging groin issue. The team stated he rested on Thursday and practiced in full on Friday. I would expect to see him play on Sunday against the Oakland Raiders after noting he practiced in full today.

Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins continue to search for the perfect balance between Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas, with both recovering from hamstring injuries. Thomas, who missed week 1, practiced in full on Friday. I would expect to see the Dolphins to try to incorporate both running backs into action against the Texans.

New York Jets

Wide receiver Santonio Holmes is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Plaxico Burress, who was dealing with ankle issues, practiced in full on Friday and is expected to play on Sunday.

AFC West Fantasy Football Injury Updates

Denver Broncos

Knowshon Moreno, running back for the Denver Broncos, did not practice on Friday and is listed as questionable. I wouldn’t expect him to play since rumor has it they are lining up others to take his spot. Brandon Lloyd practiced Friday and will most likely play Sunday.

Oakland Raiders

Oakland Raiders’ running back, Darren McFadden, was one of the players with a minor shoulder injury. However, they expect him to play on Sunday against the Bills.

NFC North Fantasy Football Injury Updates

Chicago Bears

Roy Williams, wide receiver for the Chicago Bears, didn’t practice on Thursday and is questionable for Sundays game. While the Bears still have him listed as first string on the depth chart, I would be wary that his groin injury could keep from the game.

Teammate and running back Marion Barber will not participate in Sunday’s game against the New Orleans Saints after experiencing soreness in his calf.

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers tight end Jermichael Finley is expected to play on Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. Finley was limited at practice this week because of an ankle issue.

Detroit Lions

Wide receiver Calvin Johnson is expected to play in the Lions game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Johnson returned to practice on Friday, but the final decision won’t be made until Sunday. Because he played in full at practice, I would play Johnson.

 NFC South Fantasy Football Injury Updates

New Orleans Saints

Lance Moore, wide receiver for the New Orleans Saints, is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Chicago Bears. He expects to play but his owners will check his status on Sunday.

NFC East Fantasy Football Injury Updates

Dallas Cowboys

It’s not looking good for the Dallas Cowboys. Both wide receivers Dez Bryant and Miles Austin have suffered from injuries this week. Bryant hasn’t practiced all week and remains questionable, while Austin was able to practice to some extent on Friday. I’d leave out Bryant but think you could consider Austin in your roster.

New York Giants

Hakeem Nicks, wide receiver for the New York Giants, expects to play on Monday night against the St. Louis Rams. After running some drills at Friday’s practice, he feels confident that his knee will hold up just fine in the game.

NFC West Fantasy Football Injury Updates

St. Louis Rams

St. Louis Rams running back, Steven Jackson, didn’t practice on Friday. Most likely he will be out Monday night. Sit ‘em folks.

Seattle Seahawks

Sidney Rice, wide receiver for the Seattle Seahawks will not play on Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers. While he has practiced with limitations all week, the Seahawks don’t want to throw one of their key players in too soon.

Alright week 2…Let’s GO!

You only have one job left to do: start the right guys.

Nothing could be worse than having an awesome team…on your bench.

Each and every one of us has a fantasy sob story or two, and it’s almost a guarantee that one of them revolves around sitting the wrong guy.

So who are you going to start this week?

If you haven’t signed up yet to participated in the $250 MSF Week 1 Freeroll Challenge at FanDuel, click here to do so now! (For more information click here.)

It’s free to enter, you get to compete against MSF writers and readers, and $250 in prizes will be awarded. What could be better than that?

Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Em, Sit Em Lineup Advice

Obviously, if you have Adrian Peterson, Tom Brady, or Larry Fitzgerald, he will be in your starting lineup. But who is going to have a better week THIS week? Pierre Garcon or Malcom Floyd? Mike Tolbert or Shonn Greene?

Overall season predictions won’t help you win this week; so as we do every week here at Midwest Sports Fans, here are the guys to start and sit in Week 1.

One theme you will see this week is that I am really downplaying two groups of players: players on new teams and rookies.

While Julio Jones, AJ Green, and Mark Ingram may very well become great players, I just don’t see them doing much early on this season. Rookies already have a hard enough time adjusting to the NFL. Now you add a four month lockout, and it’s almost an insurmountable deficit they have to make up.

(The “Projected Worst Performer” – a new wrinkle in our Start/Sit coverage this year, is obviously chosen from among guys who will be in their team’s starting lineup this week. Of course a guy like Brady Quinn will be a poor performer…but hopefully, nobody will be starting him this week.)

As always, follow me on twitter @The_Dr_Twitch and @FantasyMSF for updates on this week’s fantasy goings on and to get any last minute lineup questions answered.  Or feel free to comment at the bottom and I will try to answer as many of your thoughts as possible.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Em, Sit Em – Quarterbacks

Projected Top Performer: Philip Rivers

My overall #1 QB should have a fantastic week at home against a soft Minnesota secondary. He may get sacked a few times, but he will also hit on at least two or three home run balls.

Philip Rivers Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 340 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Projected Worst Performer: Chad Henne

I actually don’t think he’s as bad as everybody thinks, but the Patriots should win this game walking away and their new and improved defense will absolutely love pinning their ears back and getting to the QB throughout the entire second half.

Chad Henne Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 150 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs

Now for the tough calls:

Week One Start Em QB: Ben Roethlisberger

Don’t be too scared by the “vaunted” Baltimore defense. A quick look at their lineup reveals a lot of flashy names and not nearly as much production. While Ed Reed will still be running around and may even come up with an interception, Big Ben and his new and improved passing attack should be flying on all cylinders. Look for Baltimore to do a reasonably good job stuffing the run and Pittsburgh to adjust accordingly by throwing the ball all over the field.

Ben Roethlisberger Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 285 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other Start Em QBs for Week 1:

• Tom Brady (#2 by a hair)
• Colt McCoy (home against Cincinnati)
• Matthew Stafford (will explode at Tampa)
• Matt Schaub (no run against Indy? No problem)
• Jay Cutler (shootout with Atlanta)
• Matt Ryan (see Cutler, Jay).

Week One Sit Em QB: Tony Romo

It pains me – as a guy that drafted Tony Romo and NO OTHER QBs in his own league – to say this, but Romo will not have a good Week 1. I’m actually very high on Romo this year, and have him as the sixth ranked overall QB, but I don’t think he will be able to overcome everything in New York Sunday night.

Not only is the Jets’ pass defense one of the best in the league, but you also have the whole “9-11” thing. A few years ago, the Saints played the Falcons at home, shortly after Hurricane Katrina. It wouldn’t have mattered if the All-Madden Team walked out onto that field that day…the Saints weren’t losing. I have the feeling it will be more of the same in Week 1.

Look for Romo to have a decent amount of yards, but break down late near the red zone.

Tony Romo Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 245 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other Sit em QBs for Week 1:

• Peyton Manning (obvious reasons)
• Michael Vick (on the road…in a dome…against an underrated defense…without a few weapons)
• Josh Freeman (Detroit’s line will be too much)
• Mark Sanchez (he’s just not good)
• Joe Flacco (Pittsburgh has his number).

Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Em, Sit Em – Running Backs

Projected Top Performer: Jamaal Charles

To be honest, Charles would be my #1 running back if I wasn’t so scared about him getting hurt or worn down halfway through the season. Good thing for Charles owners he opens up the season at home against the Buffalo Bills.

He is probably the best home-run threat in football outside of Chris Johnson, and if your league rewards big plays, Charles could REALLY stand out in Week 1. I could easily see Charles rushing for over 200 yards, a-la Arian Foster last year against the Colts.

Jamaal Charles Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 22 carries for 190 yards and 2 TDs; 4 Receptions for 39 yards and 1 TD

Projected Worst Performer: Fred Jackson

There’s just not a lot going Jackson’s way this weekend. First, he’s not that good. Secondly, he has no quarterback so an already good run defense in Kansas City will be able to load the box against him. Third, CJ Spiller will probably be a better matchup against the Chiefs’ defense so FJax will get less touches. Fourth, I expect KC to win handily. And fifth, he’s not that good.

Fred Jackson Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 9 carries for 23 yards; 2 catches for 12 yards

Week One Start Em RB: Tim Hightower

He recently won the starting running back job in Washington and will be rushing in Mike Shanahan’s famous “zone blocking” scheme. You might be scared to start him week one because of Ryan Torain and Roy Helu; and I agree that eventually, as Torain and Helu will end up stealing carries from Hightower, but not until later on in the year. Helu is still a rookie that missed an entire summer’s worth of practice. Shanahan will need to rely on a running back that can pick up the Giants’ pass rush and Hightower will do the job. Also, the Giants’ rush defense is surprisingly mediocre, and Washington will rely heavily on the running game as long as John Beck and Rex Grossman are their quarterbacks. Don’t be scared to start Hightower early on in the season as the talented Helu struggles to learn the offense.

Tim Hightower Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 18 carries for 92 yards and 1 TD; 5 catches for 34 yards and 1 TD

Other Start Em RBs for Week 1:

• Peyton Hillis (home against Cincinnati)
• DeAngelo Williams (look for him to get a lot more touches now that he is healthy and Fox has moved on)
• LeSean McCoy (only player for Philly that will have a good game in a shocking loss at St. Louis)
• Chris Johnson (I think he sends a message to all the “fake” Tennessee fans).

Week One Sit Em RB: Ray Rice

Rice is my #4 ranked RB, and he will have a fantastic year, but facts are facts: nobody runs against the Steelers. Rice will probably be a decent threat out of the backfield, and may end up getting close to 80 yards on the ground and in the air, but that’s not exactly what you are hoping for out of your #1 running back.

You may not have much depth at the RB position, and you may feel compelled to start your first round draft pick…but don’t be scared. Nobody runs against the Steelers, not even Rice. Sit him with confidence, and try to hit a home run with a wild card.

Ray Rice Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 12 carries for 42 yards; 4 catches for 18 yards

Other Sit Em RBs for Week 1:

• Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh will begin throwing early and often against the Ravens)
• Knowshon Moreno (as soon as McGahee gets hurt, Moreno will break out…but the platoon system will hurt his value early on)
• Arian Foster (obvious reasons)
• Colts running backs (Houston will load up against the run with no Peyton Manning)
• LeGarrette Blount (Two words: Ndomakong Suh).

Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Em, Sit Em – Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer: Larry Fitzgerald

Kevin Kolb isn’t great…but he is better than me…and that’s really all Fitzgerald needs this season…especially against the Panthers in Week One.

Larry Fitzgerald Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 11 catches for 176 yards and 2 TDs

Projected Worst Performer: Dwayne Bowe

Not that it will hurt the Chiefs in any way…but I really don’t expect KC to be throwing the ball around too much against the Bills. Look for them to march out to a comfortable lead, and Bowe to take a backseat in the offense, at least for one day.

Dwayne Bowe Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 4 catches for 35 yards

Week One Start ‘Em WR: Reggie Wayne

Yes, I’m serious.

The Colts will definitely struggle in Week 1, especially without Peyton Manning. Houston will almost definitely stack the box to stuff the run, and if they get an early lead, the Colts will be forced to throw the ball a lot. Whether it’s Painter or Collins, one thing is for sure: Wayne will have a good day.

He has been outspoken in his defense of Painter, and Painter has clearly trusted him in the pre-season. Clark, Collie, Garcon, and Gonzalez may have bad days, but you can start Reggie with confidence this week.

Reggie Wayne Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 14 catches for 145 yards

Other Start Em WRs for Week 1:

• Calvin Johnson (statement win for Detroit)
• Mario Manningham (he and Nicks will take turns having mammoth games…it’s Super Mario Week in Week 1)
• Brandon Marshall (Dolphins will be playing from behind so he’ll rack up yards)
• Percy Harvin (probably 8 catches…and he gets to return the ball against San Diego)
• Roddy White (obvious reasons)
• Johnny Knox (shootout in Chicago).

Week One Sit ‘Em WR: Dez Bryant

It was either him or Miles Austin, and I think Revis Island will settle on Bryant for most of the night. Romo still trusts Miles Austin a little more, and will look to him and Jason Witten on hot routes while trying to escape pressure all night.

It’s definitely possible that Bryant will be able to make something happen in the return game on Sunday night, but if not, look for Bryant to have a frustratingly poor opening night.

Dez Bryant Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 2 catches for 14 yards; 1 rush for -2 yards

Other Sit Em WRs for Week 1:

• Greg Jennings (just a weird game for the Packers…I think their rushing attack and role players get more touches against Sean Payton and Gregg Williams’ D)
• Anquan Boldin (because Joe Flacco’s awful)
• AJ Green (not yet…just wait for him)
• Santonio Holmes (because Mark Sanchez is awful)
• Mike Thomas (new QB in Jax).

Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Em, Sit Em – Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer: Jason Witten

Romo and his best friend will connect on a lot of underneath passes all game long. If Witten can even get into the end zone once, he should have a huge day.

Jason Witten Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 12 catches for 125 yards and 1 TD

Week One Start Em TE: Aaron Hernandez

I have been very outspoken about Hernandez, so I will just keep it simple with facts: nobody in the entire league has caught more balls than him this pre-season; he’s the more talented of the two tight ends in New England and wants to prove it this season; and Tom Brady will be throwing the ball all over the place against Miami.

Aaron Hernandez Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 8 catches for 110 yards and 2 TDs

Other Start Em TEs for Week 1:

• Vernon Davis (against Seattle)
• Owen Daniels (against the Colts)
• Jimmy Graham (GB shuts down the Saints’ WRs and Graham gets a lot of touches)
• Greg Olsen (Cam Newton’s new best friend)
• Brandon Pettigrew (everyone in Detroit will have a good fantasy week).

Week One Sit Em TE: Jermichael Finley

Finley has been getting lots of love this season because in the past he’s been a TD machine. However, Aaron Rodgers adapted quite well without him, and with the extended lockout I think it will take Finley a few weeks to find his niche in the offense again. Finley won’t have a HORRIBLE week, but he won’t be blowing anyone away either if you another good option.

Jermichael Finley Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 5 catches for 43 yards

Other Sit Em TEs for Week 1:

• Zach Miller (normally, bad QBs equate to good days for TEs…but Tarvaris Jackson hasn’t even attained the “bad QB” level yet)
• Marcedes Lewis (I just don’t think he’s good, and the new QB will be rough for him)
• Tony Gonzalez (you are starting him for his name, and nothing else…so don’t start him
• Dallas Clark (rough day for the Colts and Dallas)

So there you have it. The first Start Em, Sit Em post for 2011 is in the books. The comment section is now yours.

Best of luck in Week 1 everybody!

You may remember that earlier this season Santonio Holmes was busted for marijuana possession. To his credit, Santonio took full responsibility and came forward during Super Bowl week with a very candid account about his childhood in Florida and the year he spent dealing drugs. He said that he wanted to use his story as an example of what kids who look up to him should not do.

Well, Santonio Holmes will have an even grander stage to be a role model and a positive influence now, as he has forever etched his name among Super Bowl immortals with an amazing 9 rec, 131 yard, 1 TD performance on the way to the MVP award of Super Bowl 43.

And no catch was bigger than the one you can watch below, which effectively clinched the sixth Super Bowl title for the Pittsburgh Steelers and the MVP award for Holmes. (Special thanks to the great Robert Littal over at Black Sports Online for the video.)

Congratulations to Santonio Holmes, who became the sixth WR ever to be named Super Bowl MVP, joining teammate Hines Ward. Holmes certainly proved his resiliency by making the superb catch above one play after letting another game-clincher slip through his outstretched fingers.

As a Browns fan, it’s never pleasant watching the Steelers win the Super Bowl. But I have to tip my hat to Santonio Holmes, Mike Tomlin, Ben Roethlisberger, James Harrison, and the entire Steelers team. They had the toughest schedule in the NFL and fought off a very determined Arizona Cardinals team tonight. The Steelers earned it, and and can now lay claim to six Super Bowl titles, more than any other franchise in NFL history.

A Steelers spokesman said that the team was still looking into the matter before they make a comment.

If Santonio Holmes is lucky enough to be suspended for the Steelers next game against the Giants, he will not have to suffer through the embarrassment that the rest of his teammates will endure when the New York Football Giants make them look like a high school team on Sunday. In addition, Steelers “fans” will have an additional excuse as to why they didn’t fare as well as Cleveland did against the exact same team.

In the end, this blogger expects Sunday’s game to be a blowout, with or without Santonio Holmes, who incidentally attended THE Ohio State University.

Prediction:

Giants 34 – Pittsburgh 10