Here is a list of the many passing and receiving records that were broken or tied during the 2011 NFL season:

Most passing yards in a single season

• Old record: 5,084—Dan Marino, Miami Dolphins, 1984
• Record breakers: 5,476—Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints; 5,235—Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Highest single-season quarterback rating

• Old record: 121.1—Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts, 2004
• Record breaker: 122.5—Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Most passing yards in a single season for a rookie

• Old record: 3,739—Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts, 1998
• Record breaker: 4,051—Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

Most receiving yards in a single season for a tight end

• Old record: 1,290—Kellen Winslow, San Diego Chargers, 1980
• Record breakers: 1,327—Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots; 1,310—Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints

Most touchdown receptions in a single season for a tight end

• Old record: 13—Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers, 2004 and Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers, 2009
• Record breaker: 17—Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots

Most net passing yards surrendered in a single season

• Old record: 4,541—Atlanta Falcons, 1995
• Record breakers: 4,796—Green Bay Packers; 4,703—New England Patriots

Most 500-yard passing games in a single season

• Old record: 1 (1951, 1962, 1982, 1985, 1988, 1990, 1996, 2000, 2006, 2009)
• New record: 2 (Matthew Stafford, 520 in Week 17; Tom Brady, 517 in Week 1)

Most 4,000-yard passers in a single season (tie)

• Old record: 10—2009 (Schaub, P. Manning, Romo, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Favre, E. Manning)
• Tied record: 10 (Brees, Brady, Stafford, E. Manning, Rodgers, Rivers, Romo, Ryan, Roethlisberger, Newton)

Most 5,000-yard passers in a single season

• Old Record: 1—1984 (Dan Marino) and 2008 (Drew Brees)
• New Record: 3 (Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Matthew Stafford)

Most 3,000-yard rookie passers in a single season

• Old Record: 1—1998 (Peyton Manning), 2008 (Matt Ryan), and 2010 (Sam Bradford)
• New Record: 2 (Cam Newton and Andy Dalton)

Drew Brees shattered records this year with the help of his sentient Muppet football.

There’s your list. I’ll leave it to someone with more football expertise than myself to explain why all of these records went down in a single season. But I would caution you not to write off all these record-breaking performances as a consequence of rule changes to protect quarterbacks and defenseless receivers. While passing numbers have been on an upward trend since the first of these rules was put in place in the 1970s, there isn’t a single 2011 rule change that accounts for all of these records—some of which have stood since the early 1980s—falling this year.

Moving the kick-off to the 35-yard line has not had a substantial effect on starting field position. (Drew Brees’ average starting position this year was his 28.24-yard line; last year he started from the 28.64.) While the league has put a premium on player safety and banned “launching,” it has also eased roughing-the-passer rules so that a player is not penalized for grazing a quarterback’s helmet with his hand. This latter rule should have resulted in more pressure on quarterbacks.

It is also interesting that all of this happened in a year when one of the most prolific passers in league history—Peyton Manning—didn’t play and when Matt Schaub, one of the most prolific passers during the last several seasons, suffered a season-ending injury in November.

I’m sure I’m not the only person who is still scratching their head and trying to figure out why this is a primetime game. Both teams are struggling with the game and fighting injuries leaving fans less than thrilled.

What do I think you should watch for in this game? Check it out.

The Rams

When it comes to the Rams’ offense, it’s a guessing game.

Both quarterback, Sam Bradford and AJ Feeley, have struggled with injuries and both sat out of practices this week. Even with Bradford back on the field Saturday, Coach Steve Spagnuolo was not ready to decide on a starter for Monday’s game. If both Bradford and Feeley are ruled out, the Rams will most likely start Tom Brandstater, who has yet to take his first NFL snap.

Their struggle to keep key offensive players healthy has shown. The Rams are at the bottom of the league for average points per game (11.7) and ranked 30th for total number of yards per game (284). Guard Jacob Bell has joined offensive tackles Jason Smith and Rodger Saffold on the IR.

The defense is not a lot of help to St. Louis’ mess either.

The Rams are horrible at stopping the run. Counters and cutbacks bring out the flaws in the defense, exposing where linebackers fail to fill the proper gaps. While this team is only ranked 25th in the league for the number of total yards (366.2) given up per game, they sit at the bottom of the league for rushing yards (157.8). Injuries are surely a huge part of their struggle.

The Seahawks

While the Seahawks could come close to finishing 7-9 like last year’s team, they won’t be lucky enough to get a home playoff game again. This Seattle team has struggled a lot as well, but they look a little better than their Monday night opponent.

Quarterback Travaris Jackson is inconsistent. His first two passes against the Rams on November 20th were intercepted, setting up St. Louis’ only touchdown of the game. Jackson has thrown for 2,225 yards on the season, with a completion percentage of 60.2, 10 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.

Seattle has a small gem in running back Marshawn Lynch, who has run for 854 yards with 8 touchdowns. Lynch, who has recently blossomed into a key player, will be the one to watch during this game.

The Seahawks defense has held their own this season. The team is ranked 10th in the league for number of points given up (20.5) and 14th for total yards (339.7) given up per game. Defensive end Chris Clemons has had 8 sacks this season and will look to get more from the Rams injury plagued offense.

My Seahawks-Rams Prediction

This is an easy one.

Offensively, the Rams don’t have a lot going for them except for injuries. If they can incorporate running back Steven Jackson involved into their game plan, the Rams could put up a decent fight on offense; but considering their QB woes, they probably won’t.

With key running back Lynch healthy and in a groove, and the Rams inability to stop a run, the Seahawks will be sitting pretty by the end of this game. The Rams defense will continue to be their downfall.

While both teams are struggling this season, the Rams are a bigger mess.

Final Score: Seattle Seahawks: 21  | St. Louis Rams: 10

**********

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks            

• Rams-Seahawks Date: Monday, December 12 at 8:30 PM on ESPN
• Rams-Seahawks Announcers: Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, and Ron Jaworski
• Rams-Seahawks Point Spread: Seahawks -10
• Rams-Seahawks Over-Under Odds: 36.5

This is a question I’ve been thinking about a lot over the past several weeks, as I continue to be more and more impressed (and surprised) by how well Cam Newton is transitioning to the NFL in his first season.

Cam Newton’s Impressive Start

Frankly, I did not think that Newton was going to become a good NFL quarterback. I certainly did not think it would happen this quickly. But this is why I blog about the NFL in my underpants while typing with Cheetos-stained fingers and other people get paid to scout and draft players*.

* – Of course, plenty of people who do not blog about the NFL in their underpants with Cheetos-stained fingers, and who get paid to scout players, agreed with my assessment about Newton. This just goes to show how inexact a science scouting quarterbacks can be. Except for this guy.

As good as he’s been,nobody is ready to put Cam Newton into Canton yet. It takes more than 8 statistically strong games to classify someone as an elite QB, especially when six of those games have resulted in losses.

In fact, we’re going to learn a lot about Newton over these final 8 weeks while the Panthers essentially “play out the string” and Newton is forced to endure the first losing season of his football career. Leading your team in spite of adversity is one of the most important attributes for a successful NFL QB. We’ll see if Newton has that ability. So far he’s given us no reason to doubt him.

Certainly there is no reason to doubt Newton’s physical skills. He is passing for nearly 300 yards per game (299.1), completing 60.6% of his passes, and has thrown 11 touchdown passes against 9 interceptions. Those are solid numbers for any quarterback, let alone a rookie, and they are made even more impressive when his superlative running stats added to the discussion: 5.1 yards per carry and 7 rushing touchdowns.

And the numbers don’t tell the whole story.

Whereas Tim Tebow’s numbers are not nearly as poor as you might think, and in fact compare favorably to several Hall of Famers’ stats through five starts, Tebow hasn’t looked at all like an NFL QB. Cam Newton, on the other hand, has. He’s played with poise throughout games, including late, and he’s shown that he can make all the throws. He also has shown the ability to hit guys for big plays down the field when they are a open, which is an absolute requisite skill for a quarterback in the NFL. When a QB has a chance to make a big play, it must be made more often than not; simple as that.

Newton has been far from perfect, and he has plenty of growing to do, but I don’t think anyone is anything but highly impressed with his first eight games as an NFL quarterback. Many may not have been as low on Newton as I was before the season, but I doubt anyone other than Cam himself expected this kind of success out of the gate.

And all of this leads me back to my original question: how many NFL teams would trade their QB right now for Cam Newton?

Hypothetically Speaking…

For our purposes, assume that everything is how it is (team records, contracts, rosters, coaches, etc) and that every NFL team is given the option of swapping its current QB right now for Newton. I admit that is 100% ridiculous because Carolina wouldn’t trade Cam Newton for anyone (except maybe Aaron Rodgers…), but humor me for the sake of discussion. The result of this hypothetical transaction would be Newton quarterbacking the team for the rest of this season, in place of their current QB, and then being their QB through the rest of his rookie contract.

There are a number of easy answers on both sides, teams that wouldn’t even think twice about saying yes or no:

• Automatic No: New England, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, New Orleans, New York Giants
• Automatic Yes: Miami, Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver, Washington, Seattle

I shouldn’t have to defend any of the automatic “no” choices. Each team has a Super Bowl-winning QB, and each team feels it is a contender this season. As tantalized as they may be by Newton, none of these teams would trade their guy for him. (And anyone who doesn’t think Eli deserves this kind of respect is, in my opinion, crazy.)

As for the automatic yeses, I can maybe-possibly see some saying that Tennessee and Jacksonville have “QBs of the future” in Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert, but both teams would have rather had Newton in the draft and surely would rather have him now. These and the others are absolute no-brainers to me.

Now let’s go one-by-one through the remaining teams and figure out a) if they would trade their current QB for Cam Newton, and b) if they should trade their current QB for Cam Newton, because I bet the answers won’t often be the same. Of course these are all just my opinions based on how I see each team’s situation.

As always, I encourage disagreement, discussion, and even constructive criticism. That’s what comment sections are for. And there is a poll at the end of this post so we can crowdsource some kind of consensus for the non-obvious teams.

Here goes…

Buffalo Bills – Ryan Fitzpatrick (current record: 5-2)

The Bills just locked Fitzpatrick up to a long-term contract that will pay him $24 million and keep him as the signal caller in Buffalo for at least the next 2-3 years. Considering the deal Arizona signed Kevin Kolb to in the offseason, Fitzpatrick certainly deserves this contract. He has passed for 1,739 yards this year and twice as many touchdowns as interceptions, and he’s led Buffalo to first place in the AFC East. There is perhaps concern that Fitzpatrick is playing over his head, as his current completion rate is 8 points higher than his career average, and his QB rating is 20 points higher than his career average, but Fitzpatrick also could just be showing the normal progression that a good young NFL quarterback will make.

Personally, I’m not sold on Fitzpatrick as a top-tier option for the future who can compete against the likes of Brady, Roethlisberger, and Peyton Manning If He Plays Again (his new name). Fitzpatrick is a solid guy who can transition you from one franchise QB to the next, but I don’t think he is the type of QB who will make you a winner year in, year out. Cam Newton may be. But with the Bills sitting in first place in the AFC East, and the good feelings of the contract still fresh, I don’t think they’d make the move even though I would.

• Would they? No
• Should they? Yes

New York Jets – Mark Sanchez (4-3)

This is one of the more intriguing ones.

Even though Mark Sanchez has really done nothing to show that he can or will become a top-tier NFL quarterback (54.7% completions, 41 TD:39 INT for career), he has ridden the coattails of a great defense and an above-average running game to two straight AFC title games. His coach continues to profess confidence in him, and I think would rather win with “his guy” Sanchez, or die trying, than admit he was wrong and bring in another QB…at least right now.

Simply put: I think most objective people would make this trade in a heartbeat, and maybe the Jets front office would force it to happen; but I think Rex Ryan is so dug in with Sanchez that he’d do everything to veto it and give Sanchez another chance to finish the job this year. (I’ll be curious to hear from Jets fans on this one…)

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes

Cincinnati Bengals – Andy Dalton (5-2)

Here is another one where short-term success might lead to myopic thinking.

The Bengals are, shockingly, sitting at 5-2 with their red-haired rookie QB and glue-handed rookie WR leading the offense. The Bengals’ defense has been great so far this season, but Dalton has been far from just a caretaker. He’s thrown 9 TDs and is completing 62.4% of his passes. Dalton’s sprint out of the gate has been nothing short of shocking.

But here is where I throw a little cold water on the fire: Cincinnati has beaten Cleveland, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Seattle. Buffalo is good, the other four teams are not. So do we really know how good Dalton is? I don’t think so. In his one start against a god defense this year, Week 3 versus San Francisco, he was putrid. We’ll know a lot more about Dalton after his four games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Like many teams, Cincy would have jumped at the chance to draft Cam Newton, but their first place positioning in the AFC North, and the fans’ growing attachment to Dalton, plus their history of personnel ineptitude, lead me to believe that the Bengals would forgo the chance to get Newton to hang onto Dalton. It would be a mistake.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes

As you can see, I have little faith in Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, or Andy Dalton, at least in relation to Cam Newton; but I also have little faith that any of their teams would trade them for Newton.

This next one though might be the most intriguing of all.

Baltimore Ravens – Joe Flacco (5-2)

Ever since Joe Flacco has taken over as QB in Baltimore, the Ravens’ offense has been as up-and-down as any offense in the NFL. Flacco has seven games in which he has tossed three or more touchdowns. He also 24 games in which he’s thrown zero touchdowns, including four playoff games (though he often gets credited with being a “winning” playoff QB). All the while, Baltimore has had a good-to-great defense and a solid running game.

Now in his fourth year, and with just one TD pass in his last four games, can the Ravens and team leaders like Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs really still have that much confidence in Flacco? I know they call him “Joe Cool” because he never seems rattled, but that’s mostly because he barely looks like he has a pulse at times. Cam Newton also never gets rattled, but he plays with an energy and smile that are both infectious. Yes, I’m one of those who believes that how you “look” and what your body language says means something when you’re the QB. Whatever Flacco may have over Newton in experience is negated by his comatose on-field appearance.

All of this is to say that I would, in a heartbeat, trade Flacco for Newton if I was the Ravens. After the last four games, and with Lewis especially running out of time, I think the Ravens would too.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes

Indianapolis Colts – Peyton Manning (0-8)

Of course the Colts would trade Curtis Painter straight up for Cam Newton. Duh. But what’s the fun in that? The real juicy question would be, right this very moment, would the Colts trade Peyton Manning If He Plays Again for Newton? And the answer is that none of us have enough information to answer. It would all come down to Manning’s health.

If there is even an iota of a chance that he can come back and play at 80-85% of his previous effectiveness, Indy would hold onto Peyton. But if they doubt he ever plays again, even if he wants to and is working like the dickens to get back, wouldn’t Indy have to trade for Cam as opposed to waiting around to see if they suck enough for Luck?

Ultimately, I think the uncertainty would tip the scales in favor of keeping Manning, and that’s the right call. It feels like there is something unfinished about Manning’s tenure in Indianapolis, and though I logically know that neck injuries can end careers, I’d still be shocked if Manning never suits up for Indy again. So I can’t see Indy pulling the trigger on this move. And with the team possibly positioning itself to draft Andrew Luck anyway, there would be no reason to trade Manning before they know as much as possible about his potential comeback.

I anticipate a lot of debate and perhaps disagreement about this one. In fact, I’m already starting to disagree with myself. I better just move along.

• Would they? No
• Should they? No

Houston Texans – Matt Schaub (5-3)

I don’t think for a second that Houston would even entertain this thought, not with Schaub and Kubiak finally on the cusp of making it to the playoffs. As good/bland as Schaub may be, good/bland isn’t necessarily an awful thing for a QB to be on a team that has a great running game, an elite WR, and a strong defense. This is the first time Houston has had all three working in the same season, and Schaub is the right guy to lead them. I wouldn’t mess with what they have going right now, not with the AFC South up for grabs this year and into the future, and I don’t think they would either.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No

San Diego Chargers – Philip Rivers (4-2)

Coming into this season it would have seemed laughable for Philip Rivers to be on this list, and perhaps it still is, but Rivers has thrown 7 TDs against 9 INTs this year, and it’s not like he has a Super Bowl title or many playoff skins on the wall to grant him immunity from at least entering this discussion.

Still, I doubt there is a chance the Chargers would seriously consider it. Rivers has a strong regular season track record over multiple seasons, and he has undoubtedly been hurt by Antonio Gates’ absence early this season. Just like I don’t think teams should overreact to a fast early season start and overrate their players (as may be the case right now in Buffalo and Cincy), I don’t think teams should underrate their players because of a slow start.

The irony of ironies, of course, is that the slow-starting Chargers are off to a fast 4-2 start during the season when their QB has more or less stunk. Go figure.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No

Philadelphia Eagles – Michael Vick (3-4)

Another one that is fascinating to think about. The Eagles went all-in on this season and are just now starting to dig themselves out of their early season hole. As tempting as it might be to get Newton, who is similar to Vick but with 6-7 years less mileage, I can’t see Andy Reid doing it. Vick is the better choice for this season and the Eagles are in it to win it in 2011.

That said, I think Newton is showing the ability to do a lot of the things Vick couldn’t or wouldn’t do early in his career. I’d love to see what Reid could do with a guy like Newton, who is not quite the runner Vick is but who is light years ahead of where Vick was as a passer in his rookie season. Just because the Eagles picked this year as the year to go for it all doesn’t mean they should necessarily mortgage a chance to improve themselves for the long term. And is Vick really playing so well that Newton couldn’t come close to replicating him, thus keeping the Eagles in contention this year? I don’t think so.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Dallas Cowboys – Tony Romo (3-4)

Whatever my answer is here it is sure to stir up some controversy, just because that’s how any discussions about Tony Romo are sure to go.

I’ve always been a Romo supporter, thinking that his critics didn’t give him enough credit for being one of the top 10 QBs in the league. While I still think Romo is an above average QB, I’m not as sold on him anymore as a potential champion. Sure, with the right supporting cast he could win a Super Bowl – hell, Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl – but I’m no longer sure that Romo can lead a franchise to a Super Bowl, and there is a big difference.

I don’t know if Cam Newton can lead a team to a Super Bowl either. It’s way to early to even consider such questions. But we did just see him lead his college team to a championship in the toughest conference in all of college football, all while rumors and innuendo and investigations were swirling around him constantly. Newton’s got it, whatever it is, and Tony Romo hasn’t proven that he does. So wouldn’t it be worth taking a chance on Newton if you’re convinced Romo probably can’t be the guy to lead a champion?

The answer to this one comes down to your belief in Romo. I no longer believe. Give me Cam. Unfortunately for Cowboys fans, Jerry Jones probably still believes in Romo. At the least, he believes in his own ego and won’t want to admit Romo can’t get it done. Hell, he wouldn’t even trade Martellus Bennett to Cincinnati for a second round pick. Why would he trade Romo for Newton?

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Detroit Lions – Matthew Stafford (6-2)

I considered putting the Lions in the automatic no category, but Mr. Glass didn’t deserve to be considered on par with Brady, Ben, Aaron Rogers, and Drew Brees. He hasn’t played a full season yet, and he hasn’t been so transcendent when he has played that Detroit wouldn’t at least consider the move.

I don’t think they’d do it though. Even with Stafford making way more money than Cam, he is the guy they have built around, and I don’t think the Lions would shake up the franchise that drastically when it is finally experiencing a true ascension.

As for me, I’d do it. Cam is showing that he knows how to utilize a top-fight receiver, and he he does not carry the same injury-prone reputation of Stafford. Add in the cost savings of Newton’s contract over Stafford’s, and I’d much rather have the rookie over the third year guy, even for the rest of the this year and certainly beyond.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Chicago Bears – Jay Cutler (4-3)

See the entry above about Joe Flacco, replace his name with “Jay Cutler” and replace “Ray Lewis” with “Brian Urlacher”. There is no reason for me to repeat myself.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes

Minnesota Vikings – Christian Ponder (2-6)

Ponder and the Vikings beat Newton and the Panthers this past weekend, with Ponder having his second straight impressive start. And while Vikings fans are slowly talking themselves into the Ponder Era, the reality is that the Vikings would have traded St. Paul to draft Newton last year, and as polished as Ponder seems to be both on and off the field, he doesn’t have 1/10th the physical potential of Newton. Minnesota probably should have been an automatic.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Josh Freeman (4-3)

Freeman was the up-and-coming superstar young quarterback coming into this season, but he has fallen back down to earth a bit through the first half of the year. His interceptions are way up, and he just doesn’t seem as comfortable or confident as he was last year, when he and rookie Mike Williams were as explosive as just about any QB-WR combo in the league.

Still, despite his struggles, I think Tampa Bay is committed to Freeman as the future of its franchise, and I know that Raheem Morris (who coached Freeman in college) believes in his young QB. Freeman is another guy who surprised me by having a smoother transition to the NFL than I thought he would. He has all of the physical tools to bust out of his current slump and still become a top-10 QB. I’d hold tight, and I think Tampa Bay would too.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No
  

Atlanta Falcons – Matt Ryan (4-3)

Like the Lions with Stafford, I don’t think Atlanta would consider making this move for more than a few seconds, but Ryan is not quite the slam dunk franchise QB that some make him out to be. He has not risen to the occasion in the Falcons’ biggest games, and he does not possess the accuracy that the top flight quarterbacks all have. He does “look” the part, he’s tough, and he’s a strong leader, which is why Atlanta is surely satisfied with Ryan and not looking to move on, nor should they be. As many questions as I have about Ryan, he’s shown enough to make me think that, unlike Romo, he could lead a franchise to a Super Bowl. With the investment Atlanta has already made in him, they’d hold tight, and I agree.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No
  

San Francisco 49ers – Alex Smith (6-1)

Another very, very intriguing one simply because of how this season has started. This one falls right in line with the Bills and Bengals, two teams doing far better than anyone expected thanks to solid play from their QB. Smith has not been asked to win games for the 49ers this year, he’s just been asked not to lose them with a great defense and solid running game by his side. And he hasn’t.

Still, this is Alex Smith. He has not done anything spectacular this year that Cam Newton couldn’t have done, even as a rookie. The issue would be whether Newton would have made mistakes that Smith wouldn’t have made to sabotage the 49ers in a game or two. That I don’t know. But I do know that, again, this is Alex Smith. As solid as he’s been, and as much of an impact as Jim Harbaugh has made on him, the difference in talent and swagger between he and Newton is obvious.

To me, the 6-1 record of the 49ers, and their incredible four game lead this early in this season, would make the team more likely to do such a deal. They’d have some cushion if Newton struggled to adapt to his new surroundings; though one thing we have learned about Newton is that he rarely if ever struggles to adapt. It may be his greatest strength of all.

• Would they? Yes (Well…maybe…probably)
  
• Should they? Yes
  

St. Louis Rams – Sam Bradford (1-6)

Following right along with my thoughts on Stafford and Ryan, I don’t think there is much of a chance that St. Louis would pull the plug on the Bradford Era already, especially considering Bradford was the NFL’s Rookie of the Year last year and just needs protection and a few good targets to showcase his pinpoint accuracy. But like Stafford and Ryan, Bradford hasn’t earned Automatic No status. So the Rams might think about it, especially considering the money, but I think they’d stick with Bradford, and I wouldn’t blame them. I still think he’s going to be a star.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No
  

Arizona Cardinals – Kevin Kolb (1-6)

I thought long and hard about putting Arizona in Automatic Yes territory, but would they really cut the cord on Kolb so soon after giving him a long-term deal? Of course they should, but we know how egos sometimes get in the way of sound decision making, so I just wonder if they would.

Ultimately, I think so. Larry Fitzgerald has to be watching Cam Newton resuscitate Steve Smith’s career and get horribly jealous. That’s what Kolb was supposed to do for Fitzy, but obviously he hasn’t come close. Not that Arizona should be surprised by this mind you, because Kolb is basically just doing exactly what he did in Philadelphia. What, should he have turned down the money?

I don’t think it would take Arizona very long to say yes here.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes

###

So, how many teams would trade their current QB for Cam Newton right now?

Okay, let’s tally up the “would they” column, as decided by me:

• No: Buffalo, New York Jets, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Houston, San Diego, Philadelphia, Dallas, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, St. Louis
• Yes: Baltimore, Chicago, Minnesota, San Francisco, Arizona

Combined with the automatics from up above, that means I think 14 teams would trade their current starting quarterback straight up for Cam Newton. That seems very low to me; and of course it would seem low to me because I personally project a lot of disconnect between what teams should do and what they would do were this a real rather than hypothetical situation.

If I tally it up in terms of my “should they” answers, it would look much different:

• No: Indianapolis, Houston, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, St. Louis
• Yes: Buffalo, New York Jets, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Dallas, Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota, San Francisco, Arizona

Based on what I would do in each team’s case, I think 20 teams’ QB situations would be improved immediately with Cam Newton. Maybe for a few there would be a short-term step back, but it would be worth it for the projected long-term steps forward.

But what I am really interested in here is your opinion.

Below is a poll that lists all of the teams I think are not obvious. Vote for all of the ones who you think should (not necessarily would) trade their current QB straight up for Cam Newton in our hypothetical fantasy. Then take to the comment section to state your peace or to agree/disagree with any of my assessments.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

I invite your thoughts below.

The good news is that we are through most of the bye weeks, and just four teams (Carolina, Detroit, Jacksonville, and Minnesota) are off in Week Nine.  While most of those teams haven’t racked up many wins, there are some big fantasy names on those rosters for which owners may need a replacement.

As always, players listed here are owned in fewer than 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Waiver Wire Pickups: Quarterback

Kevin Kolb (46%), Arizona

I’m not putting Kolb on here because he played well on Sunday, because, well, he didn’t.  However, the Cardinals face a St. Louis pass defense that has given up multiple touchdown passes in five of seven games.  In fact, the Rams have allowed seven passing scores in their three road games, making Kolb a decent bye week fill-in based solely on the matchup.

Matt Cassel (37%), Kansas City

Since I’m writing this on Sunday night, I can’t speak to Cassel’s Week Eight performance, but I can speak for the quality of his next few matchups.  The Chiefs face Miami, Denver, and New England during weeks 9, 10, and 11, and those just so happen to be the three defenses who allow the most points to opposing fantasy quarterbacks.

Andy Dalton (37%), Cincinnati

The Red Rifle now has two total touchdowns in three of his past four games, and my belief in him is undeterred by his two picks on Sunday, as they were made while he was being aggressive down the field.  His matchup against Tennessee next week is decent, given that the Titans have allowed at least 250 passing yards and/or multiple TD passes in five straight games.  What looks even better than that are Dalton’s fantasy playoff dates with St. Louis and Arizona.

Sam Bradford (29%), St. Louis

As I have mentioned the last couple weeks, Bradford still has some great matchups remaining on the schedule, starting with this week’s game against Arizona who has routinely been torched by opposing signal callers.  Keep an eye on his injury status this week to see if his ankle will allow him to take advantage of the deficiencies in the Cardinal secondary.

Carson Palmer (27%), Oakland

Like Kevin Kolb, let’s file this one under the “I know he played like Ryan Leaf the last time you saw him, but look at the matchup!” category.  Palmer used the bye week to develop timing with his new teammates, and he’ll face a Broncos defense allowing the most points to fantasy quarterbacks this year.  He’s worth a gamble if you’re looking for a one week fill-in for the likes of Matthew Stafford or Cam Newton.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Waiver Wire Pickups: Running Back

Bernard Scott (42%), Cincinnati

Obviously Cedric Benson will be back next week, but Scott had some decent runs against a stout Seattle run defense and finished with 76 yards on the ground.  That isn’t enough to take the starting job from Benson, but it should be enough to get him a few more touches.  As is the case with Dalton, there are some great matchups to round out the year, making Scott a decent option to stash on your bench in the interim.

Maurice Morris (35%), Detroit (bye)

With Jahvid Best still out with a concussion, Morris had another solid game with 65 total yards and a short rushing TD.  He outplayed Keiland Williams by a fairly wide margin this week and would again be the starter if Best still isn’t recovered following Detroit’s bye.  As I have mentioned before, Best is far from the picture of health, which makes Morris a valuable handcuff.

Roy Helu (32%), Washington

After the last couple weeks Ryan Torain is dead to me, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Mike Shanahan shared that sentiment.  That said, you never really know what’s going through Shanahan’s head, so the fact that Helu didn’t receive a single carry in Sunday’s loss to Buffalo means virtually nothing.  Consequently, it isn’t beyond the realm of possibility that Helu gets a shot as the starter sometime between now and the end of the season.

Javon Ringer (6%), Tennessee

It was Ringer, and not well-paid mega bust Chris Johnson, who was taking fourth quarter handoffs against the Colts.  Johnson remained woefully ineffective, and while the offensive line didn’t do either back any favors, Ringer clearly looked like the better runner.  After the game Mike Munchak alluded to a committee approach going forward, which makes Ringer among the top waiver wire targets.  It’s worth noting he has 12 receptions in the last three games, so he’s an even better option in PPR leagues.  Next week’s matchup against the Bengals isn’t particularly enticing, but there are a number of games looming against teams who struggle to stop the run, starting with Carolina in Week Ten.

Kregg Lumpkin (5%), Tampa Bay

It sounds as though LeGarrette Blount will be back this week, but the Bucs will turn to Lumpkin if he experiences any setbacks.  Even if he doesn’t, Lumpkin is expected to serve as the third-down back, giving him some value in deep PPR leagues.

Lance Ball (1%), Denver

Both Ball and Knowshon Moreno rushed for over 60 yards against the Lions on Sunday, with Ball reaching that mark on just six carries.  If Willis McGahee misses another game next week, Ball is potentially worth a flier given the matchup against an Oakland defense that has given up some big games to running backs earlier this year.

Chris Ogbonnaya (1%), Cleveland

Healthy running backs are pretty tough to come by in Cleveland right now.  Peyton Hillis has missed the last two weeks with a hamstring injury, and backup Montario Hardesty is headed for a MRI on his calf after leaving Sunday’s game.  Ogbonnaya was just signed a couple weeks ago, but he has five receptions in each of his two games with the Browns and ran for 37 yards on 11 carries against the 49ers.  The Cleveland running game hasn’t been too impressive so far this year, but assuming Hillis and/or Hardesty are limited or out, Ogbonnaya stands to be a potential flex option this week, particularly in PPR leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Waiver Wire Pickups: Wide Receiver

Torrey Smith (48%), Baltimore

Smith still hasn’t shown great hands and will continue to be inconsistent, but if Joe Flacco could actually hit him in stride more than once a game, the big play ability is there.  That said, I don’t love the matchup with Pittsburgh this week, but given Baltimore’s remaining schedule, there will be some weeks when you’ll want to roll the dice and get him in your lineup.

Steve Breaston (40%), Kansas City

Similar to Cassel, there’s a lot to like about his upcoming schedule, particularly given his consistency in recent weeks.

Michael Crabtree (40%), San Francisco

I’ve been hyping Crabtree for a few weeks now, and on Sunday he came through with his first touchdown of the season to go with five receptions and 54 yards.  His foot continues to look healthy, and his rapport with Alex Smith is growing.  Crabtree now has at least five receptions in three of the last four weeks and has a number of favorable matchups over the latter half of the season.

Doug Baldwin (28%), Seattle

Like anyone who watched or attended it, Baldwin just wanted to forget about his week seven game against Cleveland.  He bounced back this week after being shutout against the Browns, catching five passes for 73 yards in a loss to Cincinnati.  Baldwin has at least five catches in three of the last four games and will continue to factor prominently in the Seattle passing game (yes, that actually exists) given what seems to be solid chemistry with Tarvaris Jackson.

Early Doucet (24%), Arizona

For the most part, the yardage hasn’t been there for Doucet, but he does have a TD grab in each of the last two games.  As I mentioned with Kolb, the matchup against St. Louis is enticing, which makes Doucet a possible one week fill-in if you are in a bind.

Damian Williams (2%), Tennessee

Williams has shown decent chemistry with Matt Hasselbeck after Kenny Britt went down, catching TD passes in weeks four and five and posting 60 yards against the Colts on Sunday.  Hasselbeck is really spreading the ball around, so no one player is going to assume Britt’s role as the go-to guy.  Still, Williams is a decent red zone target and has a few good matchups left on the slate.

Greg Salas (1%), St. Louis

After a less than inspiring start to his NFL career, Salas continues to play well out of the slot in St. Louis.  He caught five passes for 47 yards and seems to have put his early drops behind him.  As I mentioned with Bradford, the schedule gets much easier, making Salas an intriguing option in PPR leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Waiver Wire Pickups: Tight End

Jake Ballard (30%), New York Giants

Ballard is now averaging 60 receiving yards with a pair of touchdowns over the past four weeks.  The Patriots have shown vulnerability against the pass, and tight ends have done some damage against them in their last two games.  At this point, Ballard doesn’t look like a flash in the pan and is firmly entrenched as a TE2 going forward.

Scott Chandler (26%), Buffalo

After posting four catches for nine yards over the last three games, it seemed that the honeymoon was over for Chandler owners.  He caught just two passes on Sunday, but both went for touchdowns in Buffalo’s win over the Redskins.  Despite his gaudy TD total, Chandler has more than two receptions just once this season, making him a risky play against a Jets defense that has allowed only one score to opposing tight ends.

Marcedes Lewis (22%), Jacksonville (bye)

Even after his four-catch, 45-yard performance on Sunday, he’s not a guy to run out and grab.  However, the Jags made a concerted effort to get him the ball with nine targets, which is a good sign for one of last season’s breakout performers at the position.

Brent Celek (10%), Philadelphia

After a disappointing 2010 season and a painfully slow start to this one, Celek caught seven passes for 94 yards and a score against Dallas Sunday night.  He now has a touchdown in two straight games and faces a Bears defense that has been vulnerable to opposing tight ends this season, allowing an average of over six receptions and 70 yards per game with six touchdowns.

Streaming Defense(s) of the Week

Atlanta (20%) at Indianapolis

At this point of the season, I think it goes without saying that you want to grab the defense facing Indy.

Kansas City (19%) vs. Miami

The Chiefs showed against Oakland that they can take advantage of poor offensive line and quarterback play against an inferior team.  That formula should work again versus the Dolphins, who almost forgot to suck for Luck on Sunday.

Update: The Week 9 Start/Sit column is posted. Check it out.

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Have any questions or feedback?  Leave them in the comments below or hit me up on Twitter (@andybottoms).

Here’s your injury update for week 8!

AFC North

The Baltimore Ravens wide receiver, Lee Evans, will miss Sunday’s game against the Arizona Cardinals. Evans has missed the past four games recovering from an ankle injury. According to the Ravens website, Evans is at the end of his recovery and should be back in the game soon.

The Cleveland Browns are hurting from a few injuries this week. Mohammad Massaquoi, wide receiver, suffered a concussion and will sit out of Sunday’s game against the San Fransisco 49ers. Fellow teammate and tight end, Ben Watson, returned to practice on Friday after suffering from a concussion. Watson is listed as questionable along with running back Peyton Hillis who is dealing with a hamstring injury.

Hines Ward, wide receiver for the Pittsburgh Steelers, is listed as questionable. Ward didn’t practice all week due to a sprained ankle.

AFC South

Houston Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson was ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The hamstring injury kept him out last week, and ever after practice, Johnson didn’t feel ready to play.

Running back Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts, is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Tennessee Titans. The hamstring injury continues to bother Addai. And for those of you who might care (not sure why you’d be), Kerry Colins, quarterback, has been put on injured reserve after suffering from a concussion.

AFC East

The Buffalo Bills wide receiver Donald Jones will not play in Sunday’s game against the Washington Redskins. Jones is recovering from an ankle injury.

Daniel Thomas, running back for the Miami Dolphins, continues to struggle with hamstring issues. He was limited at practice on Thursday and is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the New York Giants.

New England Patriots running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis is still dealing with a toe issue that arose two weeks ago. He is listed as questionable, but doesn’t seem to want to give any details about his progress.

AFC West

Running back Mike Tolbert, of the San Diego Chargers, will most likely sit out of Monday’s game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Tolbert is suffering from a hamstring and hand injury. Malcom Floyd, wide receiver, was able to practice a little on Friday along with tight end Antonio Gates, and both will hopefully be set for Monday’s game.

NFC North

The Green Bay Packers lost rookie running back Alex Green last Sunday when playing the Minnesota Vikings. Green will remain out for the rest of the season due to a knee injury he suffered in the game.

The Detriot Lions have seen a few injuries that will take a hit to their team. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has been dealing with an ankle injury all week. Stafford was able to practice both Thursday and Friday. Although listed as questionable, it looks as though only a major setback will prevent him from playing. However, running back Jahvid Best has been ruled out after suffering from a concussion. The Lions take on the Denver Broncos on Sunday.

Receiver Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings, is listed as questionable while dealing with a rib injury. Adrian Peterson was dealing with an ankle issue but returned to practice on Thursday and will play in Sunday’s game against the Carolina Panthers.

NFC South

The New Orleans Saints running back Mark Ingram has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the St. Louis Rams. Ingram missed the entire week of practice due to a right heel injury.

NFC East

Brandon Jacobs, running back for the New York Giants, is listed as probable for Sunday’s game against the Miami Dolphins because of a knee ailment. Expect him to return to the field.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals running back Chris Wells (Beanie Wells) will be a game time decision for their match up against the Baltimore Ravens. Wells practiced on his bad knee on Thursday, and they were hoping to see him continue to advance.

Wide receiver, Braylon Edwards, for the San Fransico 49ers will also be a game time decision due to a knee injury. Edwards practiced limitedly this week and looked as though he could play, but no one seems to have a for sure answer.

The Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch is listed as probable for Sunday’s game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Lynch sat out last week after suffering from back spasms.

Sam Bradford, quarterback for the St. Louis Rams, will miss his second game while he sits out with an ankle injury on Sunday when the Rams take on the New Orleans Saints. Wide receiver Danario Alexander is doubtful for the game as well, as he continues to deal with a hamstring issue.

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That’s your injury update for week 8. I hope these games prove to be as exciting as the games of the World Series! Happy football!

As always, players listed here are owned in fewer than 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Waiver Wire Pickups: Quarterback

Carson Palmer (40%), Oakland (bye)

With three interceptions in less than a half, I haven’t seen Palmer play this poorly since, well, last year.  Is he an upgrade over Kyle Boller?  Of course, but then again Jeff George would be too.  Many will chalk this debacle up to rust or a lack of familiarity with his receivers, and while that played a role, it’s not as if Palmer was lighting up opposing secondaries last season.  The matchup against Denver following this week’s bye looks tempting, but nothing I saw yesterday gives me confidence in the newly unretired Palmer.

Sam Bradford (37%), St. Louis

Perhaps Sunday’s performance from A.J. Feeley will give people a new appreciation for Bradford’s talents and willingness to take a beating behind a woeful offensive line.  His ankle injury is a concern, but as I mentioned last week, there are plenty of good fantasy matchups left on the St. Louis schedule, particularly now that Brand Lloyd is in the mix.

Alex Smith (22%), San Francisco

Smith entered San Fran’s bye with six passing touchdowns in his last three games.  The 49ers face Cleveland in Week Eight, but don’t read too much into the Browns’ gaudy numbers against opposing quarterbacks.  Their opponents haven’t exactly been a who’s who of prolific signal callers.

Andy Dalton (20%), Cincinnati

I’ve listed Dalton in each of the last two columns, and I still like his matchup against the Seahawks this week.  Their pass defense isn’t as good as the numbers indicated against Cleveland, and their tough run defense, coupled with the absence of the suspended Cedric Benson, should give the “Red Rifle” opportunities to air it out.

John Beck (9%), Washington

In his first start of the season, Beck ran for one touchdown and threw for another while racking up 279 passing yards.  That’s now two straight weeks with a rushing score, and his ability to move around and extend plays stood out.  Next up for Beck is a Buffalo pass defense who has allowed at least 292 passing yards in each of the last five games.  That said, the loss of Santana Moss to a hand injury is a potential red flag.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Waiver Wire Pickups: Running Back

Knowshon Moreno (46%), Denver

With Willis McGahee’s broken hand almost certain to keep him out of action this week, Moreno is sure to be a hot waiver wire target.  He rushed for 28 yards on seven carries in relief of McGahee this week, but he has failed to show any ability to live up to his lofty draft status over the course of his brief career.  The Broncos take on Detroit next week, who has been victimized on the ground the last few weeks, but I have a hard time recommending Moreno outside of PPR leagues.  It’s also worth noting that Lance Ball and Tim Tebow are more likely options around the goal line.

Ben Tate (42%), Houston

Obviously Arian Foster looks as healthy as ever, but Tate’s 104-yard performance on Sunday proved his value as a handcuff should Foster suffer any setbacks.  Keep in mind that the Texans face Carolina and Indianapolis in Weeks 15 and 16, giving Tate even more value.

Montario Hardesty (36%), Cleveland

The good news is that Hardesty held up under a heavy workload on Sunday and compiled 122 total yards against a solid Seattle defensive front.  The bad news is that he averaged fewer than three yards per carry and had just one run of over eight yards.  If Peyton Hillis misses next week’s game against San Francisco, Hardesty would still be a flex option based on the workload despite a tough matchup, but that’s about it.

Maurice Morris (35%)/Keiland Williams (3%), Detroit

Morris and Williams essentially split the backfield touches with Jahvid Best out on Sunday.  Morris got 31 of his 50 rushing yards on one play, but he was more involved in the passing game.  Williams also looked decent on the ground and looks like the better short yardage option.  Given the rumors about Best potentially missing the rest of the year, it’s worth stashing one of these guys just in case.  Those rumors have obviously been denied, but you have to acknowledge Best’s lengthy injury history.  Next week’s matchup with Denver isn’t quite as good as it may seem since the Broncos have yet to allow an opposing running back to rush for a score.

Delone Carter (19%), Indianapolis

With Joseph Addai aggravating his hamsting injury, Carter stepped in and ran for 89 yards and a TD on 10 carries while the Colts were being dismantled by New Orleans.  The game was already out of hand when Addai was injured (yes, I know it was only the first quarter), so the severity of the injury is unclear.  However, the Colts face a Tennessee defense that was just shredded on the ground and has allowed a 100-yard rusher in each of their last two games.

Bernard Scott (9%), Cincinnati

With Cedric Benson serving his suspension this week, Scott will get the start against Seattle.  I like Scott’s skill set, but the Seahawks have been tough on opposing runners this year.  Based on his workload, Scott becomes a decent flex option as a bye week fill-in.

Alfonso Smith (1%), Arizona

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but Beanie Wells got dinged up this week.  With Wells on the sideline, Smith stepped in and rushed for a score against the Steelers.  He finished with 17 rushing yards on five carries, and he also filled in for Wells in Week Three with 75 total yards.  Wells has typically been a slow healer, but Smith isn’t a particularly attractive option with the Ravens up next on the schedule.  LaRod Stephens-Howling will also take over on passing downs, further limiting Smith’s value.

Kregg Lumpkin (1%), Tampa Bay (bye)

Early reports are that Earnest Graham has a torn Achilles, which would end his season.  The Bucs have the bye week for LeGarrette Blount’s knee to get healthy, but if that isn’t enough time, Lumpkin would be the de facto starter.  He struggled on the ground against the Bears, tallying just 15 yards on eight carries.  Lumpkin did catch six balls for 37 yards, which makes him far more intriguing in PPR leagues should Blount remain out.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Waiver Wire Pickups: Wide Receiver

Michael Crabtree (38%), San Francisco

I’ve been on the Crabtree bandwagon for a couple weeks, and even with Joe Haden looming on Sunday, his ownership percentage is way too low.  It’s probably a week where you think twice about starting him, but his foot seems healthy and there are a number of great matchups left on the San Francisco schedule.

Steve Breaston (29%), Kansas City

With five catches and 64 yards on Sunday, Breaston has at least 50 yards in four straight games.  One of those games was against the Chargers, who just gave up three scores to a number two wideout and travel to Arrowhead on Sunday.

Antonio Brown (29%), Pittsburgh

Brown had a career day with seven catches for 102 yards against the woeful Arizona secondary.  With Hines Ward banged up, Brown seized the opportunity as the Steelers went to more wide open offensive sets.  The Steelers continue to struggle at establishing the run game (as my fellow Rashard Mendenhall owners can attest), which could mean more big games from Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh passing attack.

Greg Little (29%), Cleveland

The rookie receiver now has at least five catches in three straight games and led the Browns with seven targets on Sunday.  The yardage was disappointing, but he’s emerging as a strong PPR league option and remains a solid red zone target.  Beware this week, as the 49ers have given up just one TD to an opposing wideout since Week Two.  Still, the Browns are sure to force feed Little the ball either way.

Jabar Gaffney (19%), Washington

With Santana Moss out with a hand injury, Gaffney will be asked to step up as the number one wideout.  He has significantly more value in PPR leagues, but with the exception of a matchup with the 49ers, there are some decent matchups on Washington’s schedule over the next month or so.  Terrence Austin has also showed some chemistry with Beck, so keep an eye on him as well.

Demaryius Thomas (9%), Denver

The numbers, three catches for 27 yards and a score, don’t necessarily stand out.  But the 10 targets do.  Thomas did have a couple drops, but he’s sure to be a huge part of the Denver passing game with Brandon Lloyd now in St. Louis.  He’s worth adding in any format.

Michael Jenkins (7%), Minnesota

As I said four weeks ago, the numbers might be tempting, but don’t go pick him up.  Sometimes old advice is the best advice, like never eat yellow snow.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Waiver Wire Pickups: Tight End

Jermaine Gresham (42%), Cincinnati

As I mentioned above, I think the Bengals will be forced to throw it a decent amount against Seattle.  While that is good news for Gresham in and of itself, it’s worth noting that the Seahawks have given up a touchdown to an opposing tight end in two of the last three games.

Heath Miller (31%), Pittsburgh

Always one of Roethlisberger’s favorite red zone targets, Miller now has touchdowns in two of the last three weeks.  The Patriots have given up a couple big games to opposing tight ends, making Miller a decent bye week fill-in.

Visanthe Shiancoe (19%), Minnesota

A solid tight end can be a young quarterback’s best friend, which could help Shiancoe re-emerge as a fantasy factor over the remainder of the year.  Next week Minnesota takes on a Carolina defense that just got lit up by Fred Davis, which makes Shiancoe a reasonable option if you’re desperate.

Streaming Defense(s) of the Week

Cincinnati (24%) at Seattle

The Bengals have been a terrific fantasy defense this season, and words can’t do justice to the ineptitude of the Seattle offense on Sunday.  Charlie Whitehurst actually made Seattle fans pine for Tarvaris Jackson, maybe even Dan McGwire from the early 90s.  That Seahawks-Browns game could have single-handedly killed any interest for football in London.  Hell, it almost killed interest in my own home.

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Have any questions or feedback?  Leave them in the comments below or hit me up on Twitter (@andybottoms).

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Lee Evans has not played most of the season because of an ankle injury. However, the Ravens are confident he will return this season. When that will be is another story. He’s not quite ready yet.

Running back Peyton Hillis of the Cleveland Browns missed his third straight practice Friday and is looks questionable for Sunday’s game against the Seattle Seahawks. Hillis is dealing with a hamstring issue that has plagued him for awhile. Montario Hardesty would start in his place.

Mike Wallace and Rashard Mendenhall of the Pittsburgh Steelers are listed as probable for Sunday’s game against the Arizona Cardinals.

AFC South

Sorry Andre Johnson owners. The Houston Texans wide receiver will not play against the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.

Indianapolis Colts running back Joseph Addai practiced on Friday but is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the New Orleans Saints. It’s a prime time game, so the best you can do is check before the noon games on Sunday and hope they’ve decided before you set your roster. Grab Delone Carter or even Donald Brown if you’re counting on Addai, so you can make a last minute switch if need be.

AFC East

Miami Dolphins running back Daniel Thomas is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Denver Broncos. Thomas continues to suffer from a hamstring injury, but he is expected to play. Wide receiver Brandon Marshall is expected to play as well.

AFC West

Antonio Gates is expected to play Sunday against the New York Jets. This will be Gates first appearance since week 2.

NFC North

There are mixed reports for Chicago Bears wide receiver Earl Bennett. He is listed as probable. However, most reports note that his chest is still an issue he’s dealing with and that he will likely not play on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Bucs.

Jahvid Best has been ruled out of Sunday’s game against the Atlanta Falcons due to a concussion.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game against the Detroit Lions. Jones is suffering from a strained hamstring. Tight end Tony Gonzalez, who was experiencing issues with his elbow, is listed as probable.

Tight end Jimmy Graham of the New Orleans Saints was limited in Friday’s practice because of a sore ankle. He is listed as probable for Sunday’s game against the Indianapolis Colts.

Carolina Panthers tight end Greg Olsen is listed as probable, after dealing with a toe injury. However, he practiced in full on Friday should play Sunday against the Washington Redskins.

LeGarrette Blount, running back for the Tampa Bay Bucs, is out for Sunday’s game against the Chicago Bears. Blount is dealing with a knee injury.

NFC West

St. Louis Rams quarterback, Sam Bradford, suffered an ankle sprain and is listed as a game time decision for Sunday’s game against the Dallas Cowboys.

Alright fantasy fans. Get to it! And good luck!

As always, players listed here are owned in fewer than 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Waiver Wire Pickups: Quarterback

Sam Bradford (47%), St. Louis

It’s tough to blame people for giving up on Bradford after an ugly start to the season for both him and the Rams.  While the team didn’t fare any better against Green Bay, Bradford showed signs of life with 321 passing yards.  His receivers have consistently let him down with drops (and continued to do so on Sunday), but the Rams have also faced one of the tougher schedules in the league.

Next week Bradford takes on the Cowboys, who have allowed four of five opposing quarterbacks to throw for two touchdowns.  He also has four games left against Arizona and Seattle, so there should be better days ahead.

Tim Tebow (46%), Denver

Just in case you’ve been on a six-day bender, John Fox announced last week that Tebow will start Sunday’s game against Miami.  Through their first four games, the Dolphins have given up the second most points to fantasy quarterbacks.  And while everyone has their opinion of Tebow, he has produced solid fantasy numbers whenever he has played.  He’s absolutely worth adding to see how he responds this week.

Matt Cassel (34%), Kansas City

To rehash a few of the numbers I referenced on Cassel last week, he has seven touchdowns compared to just one interception over his last three games.  He also faces an Oakland defense that has allowed 11 passing touchdowns in the past five games, which makes him a prime replacement for any of the bigger name quarterbacks on bye this week.

Andy Dalton (20%), Cincinnati (bye)

The “Red Rifle” couldn’t extend his streak of two-TD games, but he did complete nearly 80 percent of his passes for 264 yards and one score against the Colts.  The surprising Bengals are on bye this week, but they face Seattle in Week Eight.  The Seahawks have allowed their last four opponents to throw for at least 252 yards, and given their solid run defense, Dalton may need to air it out.

John Beck (1%), Washington

We had started to see signs of it the past couple weeks, but Rex Grossman is, in fact, Rex Grossman.  Beck completed 8-of-15 passes for 117 yards and ran for a score in relief of Grossman, and it would be surprising if he wasn’t under center for Washington’s next game against Carolina.  He’s not an option outside of two quarterback leagues, but he does have a few decent matchups over the remainder of the season.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Waiver Wire Pickups: Running Back

Jackie Battle (36%), Kansas City

Even during KC’s bye week, Battle’s ownership percentage skyrocketed in preparation for next week’s matchup with the Raiders.  Oakland’s run defense has shown improvement over the past couple weeks, but don’t forget that they allowed opposing ball carriers to run for 465 yards over the previous three weeks.  Todd Haley has talked about getting Battle more involved and did just that against the Colts in Week Five.

Image credit: AP Photo/Bill Kostroun via Arrowhead Addict

Delone Carter (31%)/Donald Brown (5%), Indianapolis

With Joseph Addai sidelined, Carter got 14 carries compared to just five for Brown, but it was Brown who found the end zone.  The Bengals have a solid run defense, so that played a role in Carter’s struggles, but Brown did show some ability in passing situations and as a change of pace for the bruising Carter.  Addai’s status for next week is unknown, but the Colts face a New Orleans defense that is allowing 5.1 yards per carry.  They were victimized this week by a bigger back (Earnest Graham), which might bode well for Carter if the Colts can keep from getting too far behind.

Montario Hardesty (16%), Cleveland

There weren’t many key injuries on Sunday, but Peyton Hillis had to leave Cleveland’s game against Oakland with a bum hamstring.  There were initial reports that he was pulled as a coach’s decision, and rumors continue to fly in Cleveland that he may be traded due to the lack of progress in contract discussions.  Hillis is set to have a MRI to assess the damage, but Hardesty should see a fair amount of work.

The bad news for Hardesty is that he has continued to drop passes and botched a handoff that resulted in a turnover.  Seattle’s run defense is also one of the better units in the league, so while his touches may increase, don’t bank on a breakout performance from Hardesty in the short-term.

DeMarco Murray (5%)/Tashard Choice (5%), Dallas

Felix Jones sustained an ankle injury and has taken up permanent residence in the trainer’s office.  The Cowboys kept Jones on the sidelines for the entire second half against the Patriots, which opened the door for Murray and/or Choice to make an impression.  Neither really seized the opportunity, with Murray tallying 32 yards on 10 carries and Choice rushing for 14 yards on five attempts.  Choice was more involved in the passing game, but Jerry Jones said after the game he would entertain trade offers for him.  Murray looked like the more effective runner, and if I had to choose one to pursue, that’s who I would go with.

If Jones is out next week, either of these runners have a nice matchup against a St. Louis defense that has routinely been shredded on the ground.  Of course, they’ve also been shredded through the air, but you get my point.

Maurice Morris (1%), Detroit

Lost amidst the post-game shenanigans and tomfoolery between Jim Schwartz and Jim Harbaugh was the fact that Jahvid Best sustained a concussion in the fourth quarter.  He actually returned to the game after hitting his head, but given his history of concussions both in the NFL and at Cal, there’s a better than average chance that he doesn’t play against Atlanta this week.

Compared to fellow reserve Keiland Williams, Morris is the best bet to earn the bulk of the backfield touches, as he is the better receiver of the two.  The Falcons are holding their opponents to under 90 yards per game on the ground, but given his involvement in the passing game, Morris has value as a bye week fill-in.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Waiver Wire Pickups: Wide Receiver

James Jones (47%), Green Bay

I said last week that it’s tough to predict which Packers wideout not named Greg Jennings is the safest to start, and despite the fact that Jones has now scored in three straight games, that remains the case.  Jones saw just one target against St. Louis, which he converted to a 35-yard touchdown.  He’s not an every week starter, but he’s a solid guy to gamble on given how prolific Green Bay’s offense has been.

Darrius Heyward-Bey (45%), Oakland

After another solid game on Sunday, DHB now has 17 receptions for 296 yards over the past three weeks.  Quite frankly, I would have thought I had a better chance of recording an album of duets with Mike Tyson than advocating DHB in fantasy leagues.  The loss of Jason Campbell hurts his ability to keep the streak going, but Oakland’s next two games are against Kansas City and Denver, who are among the worst in the league at limiting the fantasy production of opposing wide receivers.

Torrey Smith (42%), Baltimore

Following Smith’s breakout game in Week Three, I asked that you temper your expectations due to his inconsistency.  In the two games since, he caught one pass for one yard before reeling in three passes for 84 yards against the Texans.  Smith will certainly have other big games this year, but next week the Ravens take on a Jacksonville secondary that has allowed just two receiving touchdowns to opposing wideouts in the past four weeks.

Michael Crabtree (42%), San Francisco (bye)

Crabtree showed no ill effects from his previous foot injury, and he continues to show flashes of the ability that earned him his lofty draft status.  Crabtree was targeted 15 times against the Lions on Sunday and finished with nine receptions for 77 yards.  He narrowly missed catching a touchdown and has a number of favorable matchups following the bye this week.

Jacoby Jones (34%), Houston

After laying an egg in Houston’s first game without Andre Johnson, Jones bounced back with four catches, 76 yards, and a score against Baltimore.  However, he was still targeted fewer times than Kevin Walter and faces a Tennessee defense that has limited opposing wideouts pretty well this year, at least those not wearing Steeler uniforms.

Doug Baldwin (24%), Seattle (bye)

I mentioned Baldwin last week following his big game against the Giants.  He has at least 83 yards in three of Seattle’s five games this season, including the last two contests.  It’s uncertain who will be under center for the Seahawks next week, but Baldwin has shown decent chemistry with both Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst.  Even if Joe Haden is back for Cleveland, he’s likely to spend most of his time on Sidney Rice, leaving Baldwin with a much more favorable matchup.

Early Doucet (23%), Arizona

Like Baldwin, I touched on Doucet last week heading into Arizona’s bye.  He is routinely being targeted in the passing game, and with the Cardinals consistently falling behind, they will be forced to air it out.  Against a stout Steelers pass defense this week, he’s not a great option, but he does have a number of good matchups in the coming weeks.

Steve Breaston (22%), Kansas City

Breaston has at least 50 receiving yards in three straight games, and as I mentioned above with Cassel, this week’s matchup against Oakland is favorable for the KC passing attack.

Jerome Simpson (18%), Cincinnati (bye)

It’s been feast of famine for Simpson this season.  In his two good games, he’s totaled 10 catches for 237 yards.  In the other four, he has 12 receptions for 116 yards.  Even on the heels of Sunday’s 100-yard effort, Marvin Lewis was critical of his play, particularly his continued struggles with dropped passes.  With Cincinnati heading into their bye and a number of challenging matchups looming, there are certainly better options out there.

Greg Little (16%), Cleveland

The Cleveland coaching staff talked about wanting to get Little more involved following their bye week, and they made good on that promise on Sunday, targeting him 12 times.  He converted those looks into six receptions and 72 yards, and had he not slipped just short of the goal line, Little would have scored his first NFL touchdown.  He is by far the most talented wide receiver on the team and should continue to play a major role in the passing game.  Pick him up before it’s too late.

Danario Alexander (12%)/Greg Salas (0%)/Mark Clayton (0%), St. Louis

As I mentioned above with Bradford, the Rams have some nice matchups remaining this year, but someone has to become a consistent threat as a receiver.  Alexander was promoted to the starting lineup on Sunday and finished with six catches for a team-high 91 yards on 10 targets.  He dropped what could have been an 81-yard touchdown, but if he can stay healthy, he should remain a starter.  Salas shook off a terrible start to his NFL career and bounced back on Sunday with eight catches for 77 yards.  With Danny Amendola out, the Rams have been searching for a slot receiver, and Salas has now staked his claim to that role.  He’s most valuable in PPR leagues.  Clayton has been on the PUP list and can’t play until Week Eight at the earliest.  Still, he put up huge numbers over the first four weeks of last season and was recently cleared to start practicing with the team.  Clayton is at minimum a name to file away.

Arrelious Benn (4%), Tampa Bay

Benn showed his big-play ability as he got wide open on a 65-yard TD, but he’s behind Mike Williams and Kellen Winslow (and maybe even Preston Parker) in the pecking order.  Benn has some terrific skills in the open field, but he’s isn’t consistent enough to warrant picking up just yet outside of deep leagues.

Jason Hill (2%), Jacksonville

That’s now back-to-back games with TDs for Hill, but in a passing offense that has shown so little, it’s tough to recommend owning any part of the Jacksonville passing game.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Waiver Wire Pickups: Tight End

Fred Davis (42%), Washington

Davis feasted on the Eagles defense to the tune of six catches for 95 yards, and now Chris Cooley is expected to miss time with an injured finger.  The potential insertion of John Beck into the starting lineup doesn’t hurt Davis’ value, and he has a few games coming up against teams who have been recently victimized by opposing tight ends.

Jared Cook (32%), Tennessee

I mentioned last week that I expected the Titans to use their bye week to find more ways to get Cook involved following his two best games of the season.  This week should be a solid test against the Texans, who have done a nice job of limiting tight ends not named Jimmy Graham so far this year.

Lance Kendricks (11%), St. Louis

Following his four-catch, 71-yard performance against the Packers, Kendricks should be starting to rebuild his confidence after a shaky start to his NFL career.  Still, the talent is there, as is a matchup with a Dallas defense who is among the worst at defending opposing tight ends.  Obviously it’s a huge gamble, but as I mentioned with the other Rams, better days are to come.  They have to be.

Jake Ballard (10%), New York Giants (bye)

He now has three straight weeks of at least eight fantasy points in standard leagues, so perhaps the bye doesn’t come at the best time for Ballard.  Still, he’s clearly become a part of the offense and is posting Kevin Boss-esque numbers for the Giants.  No need to pick Ballard up while he is off this week, but he’s a potential fill-in going forward.

Brent Celek (9%), Philadelphia (bye)

Celek came into Sunday’s game with nine receptions for 73 yards, so you can understand why the Redskins seemed ill-prepared for him to the lead the Eagles in targets.  The matchup against Dallas following Philly’s bye is a decent one, but very few things point to a repeat performance of Sunday’s 42 yards and a score.

Streaming Defense(s) of the Week

Dallas (43%) vs. St. Louis

The Rams have yet to score more than 16 points this season, and the Cowboys are coming off of their best defensive effort of the year against the potent Patriots offense.

Cleveland (4%) vs. Seattle

The Seahawks are among the worst at giving up points to opposing fantasy defenses, and they’re heading east for an early start.

Don’t miss the rest of our Week 7 Fantasy Football coverage:

• Week 7 Start em, Sit em

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Have any questions or feedback?  Leave them in the comments below or hit me up on Twitter (@andybottoms).

Regardless, there may be some surprises this week from a few highly unknown RBs.  This position may very well be the most important for owners in terms of touches for players, but on the professional level it is the most dispensable position, as almost anyone can succeed in the right situation.

If you are itching to see how Tim Tebow is going to follow up his breakthrough game in Week 5, then you are going to have to wait until next week, but if you want to hear a bunch of media chatter about him just turn on ESPN.

Having said that, we have a lot of good stuff for you in this week’s Stock Report.

Fantasy Football Week 6: Stocks Up

Sam Bradford

There is no doubt that he is talented with a bright future, but Bradford is going through a small sophomore slump.  While that may be, going up against the Packers could be good for his fantasy numbers.  Yes, Green Bay does cause turnovers, but Sam isn’t an interception machine and the secondary does give up its share of big plays.

Daniel Thomas

Probable for the matchup against New York on Monday night, Daniel Thomas has been steadily taking away from Reggie Bush’s action as the weeks go by.  The Jets defense hasn’t lived up to the hype that it was getting this preseason, and if Thomas is getting the touches you can be sure he will be getting the points.

Earnest Graham

With LeGarrette Blount sitting out this game at home against New Orleans, Graham is a more than capable back to replace him.  Simply put, this Tampa Bay offense is still looking for an identity and have close to no weapons with any playmaking ability.  Look for the Bucs to get back to the basics and run the ball this week.

Delone Carter

I am proud to say that this is not a homer pick.  Yes Delone and I played together in high school, but that isn’t why his stock is up this week.  The Colts just see something in him that could benefit fantasy owners a lot.  When the ball gets anywhere near the goal-line, you can bet the house that Carter is getting the ball.  Add in the fact that Addai looks like he is going to sit out, and the rookie may start and have a big day against a Bengals defense that won’t have Rey Maualuga.

Victor Cruz

Does it need to be said that Eli Manning can put up numbers?  He may be turnover prone, but he does get his guys the ball.  Also, the GGGGGGG-Men are going up against a Bills team that loves to get in shootouts and get continuously burned by third receiving options (think Jason Avant, but without all of the turnovers hopefully).

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Usually, one wouldn’t be caught dead trying to make a case for a sprinter with no hands for fantasy football, but that is about to happen right now.  Al Davis was the only person who really believed in Heyward-Bey, and with his passing the Raiders wide-out could continue to make the statement he’s been making the past few weeks.  Did I mention that Browns CB Joe Haden is listed as questionable too?

Cleveland Browns TEs

While the Browns have a few receivers on the squad, it is the tight ends who have been the most productive thus far.  Both Evan Moore and Benjamin Watson are more than capable of making plays for your squad.  Some people feel as if two tight ends would take away from each other, but not when those two are the best pass catchers on the team.

Buffalo D/ST

Although it was noted that a player earlier in the article could have a big day against the Bills’ defense, that doesn’t mean they can’t do what they do best.  Interceptions, well turnovers in general, is what they are best at on defense.  Hey, they picked off Brady and Vick a total of 8 times this year and the turnover machine Eli Manning is next on the schedule.

Fantasy Football Week 6: Stocks Down

Matt Schaub

Sometimes it is hard to rate how Schaub is go play becuae one day you will get a 25 point outing from him and then the very next week that number is cut to 9.  It is safe to say that if the over/under for him this week is 13, the Ravens defense is likely to play where he hits the under.

Michael Vick

DISCLAIMER!  His stock really isn’t down, but for a player of Vick’s caliber, yes it is down this week for a few reasons.  The record setting game last year in primetime has not been forgotten in D.C. and the Redskins will be doing everything they can to stop him.  Besides, the Skins have only allowed 3 touchdown passes this year.  Again, stock isn’t down, just treading water.

Redskins RBs

The circus that the backfield is in in the nation’s capital is just that, a show with many quirks.  Not even Mike Shanahan knows who he wants to be the feature back, and if Tim Hightower does in fact play, then he and Torain will surely take away from each other on Sunday.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis

The man who has four names in his name alone will be limited to that many toes on his foot if he is to play this week.  Even if he does play, the strength of the Cowboys defense has been the ability to stop the run and control the line of scrimmage, as good as any other team in the league.

Brandon Marshall

To receive fantasy points, one must acquire stats.  To get these stats, this person must be in the game and on the field, correct?  I’m not sure if fantasy owners are taking Brandon Marshall seriously, but getting ejected from the game before halftime is not going to help his numbers at all.  Now ask yourself: is this a risk that you really want to take?

Jason Avant

His popularity has gone up some, but 11 points isn’t much to get excited about; and ask yourself this: would I throw him the ball during crunch time seeing what happened in Buffalo last week?

Reggie Wayne

It is no secret that Curtis Painter has a new favorite target in Pierre Garcon, so naturally Wayne’s numbers will be down.  Take this into account as well: Leon hall doesn’t necessarily guard the speedy receivers, so instead of taking Garcon out of the game, it looks like Hall will be trying to shut down Reggie.

Aaron Hernandez

Now when you drop a sure touchdown pass, does Tom Brady forgive and forget or does he hold that against you and throw to his many other weapons?  Apparently it is circumstantial but Hernandez is still listed as questionable and won’t be 100% for the game so play accordingly.

49ers D/ST

The week could go either way for this defense.  On the year they have caused 14 turnovers and have notched an interception every game.  Three out of the five they have played were multi-interception games.  Now for the bad news: playing on the road is no easy test and especially against the flaming hot Detroit Lions.  If Megatron gets hot, it could be a long day.

Like I said at the beginning of the season, gone are the days of fantasy rule by the RBs.  Of those 18 players, only 5 are RBs…simply a staggering thought to anyone living in 2006 or before.

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With the rise in scoring, it is getting increasingly easy to predict breakout performances for players…as well as increasingly difficult to predict who will have a bad day.  For instance, this week, I was 17 for 24 on my predictions for guys that I thought would be successful.  On the other hand, I was only 11 for 20 on guys I thought you should sit.  It’s just so difficult to predict who will play poorly when everyone is putting up record numbers.

Nevertheless, Jerod and I stand here undeterred in our predictions (as did Andy Bottoms in his Waiver Wire Pickups column).  Let’s quickly recap those picks from last week before moving on to Week Six.

Week Five Recap

• Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Best Player/Start Em/Other Guys I Liked - (Hits:  Top 12 for QBs/TEs and Top 30 for RBs/WRs)
• Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Worst Player/Sit Em/Other Guys I Didn’t Like - (Hits:  13th or worse for QBs/TEs and 31st or worse for RBs/WRs)
• Quick Note:  The following players got injured and have been removed from the grading scale for fairness: Joseph Addai, Mike Tolbert, and Rashard Mendenhall.

Overall: 29 for 44 (66%)

Best Player Predictions: 4 for 4

• Hits: Michael Vick, Maurice Jones-Drew, Calvin Johnson, and Jermaine Gresham.

Start Em Predictions: 4 for 4

• Hits: Philip Rivers, Deion Branch, Pierre Garcon, and Brandon Pettigrew.
• Misses: None

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 10 for 16

• Hits: Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Curtis Painter, Darren Sproles, Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks, AJ Green, Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham, and Owen Daniels.
• Misses: Mark Sanchez, LeGarrette Blount, LaDainian Tomlinson, Devery Henderson, Dallas Clark, and Scott Chandler.

Worst Player Predictions: 1 for 3

• Hits: David Nelson
• Misses: Cam Newton and Heath Miller.

Sit Em Predictions: 1 for 3

• Hits: Tom Brady
• Misses: Michael Turner and Vernon Davis.

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 9 for 14

• Hits: Donovan McNabb, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, James Starks, Matt Forte, Wes Welker (Special exception…I said it would be a bad game FOR HIM and it was), Jacoby Jones, Jeff King, and Jeremy Shockey.
• Misses: Ben Roethlisberger, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Shonn Greene, Victor Cruz, Steve Smith.

Onto this week.

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em Sit Em

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 6:

• Denver
• Kansas City
• Seattle
• Tennessee
• Arizona
• San Diego

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Quarterbacks 

Projected Best Performer – Tom Brady

He’s the best fantasy QB there is right now…and he’s playing against Dallas.  The Pats might score 60 points.

Tom Brady Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 420 passing yards, 4 TDs

Start Em – Tony Romo

Last week, I predicted that Mark Sanchez would have a big day against New England’s banged up secondary that was already below average.  Well, my reasoning was right, but I forgot one thing – that Mark Sanchez is awful.  Don’t worry, the oft-maligned Tony Romo should put up great numbers this week, especially considering both Miles Austin and Dez Bryant should be fully healed.

Tony Romo Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 380 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other Start ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Six:

• Ben Roethlisberger – We finally saw the Big Ben I thought we would see all season last week.  He should have another big game against Jacksonville.
• Josh Freeman – Bounceback game against the Saints at home.
• Curtis Painter – I’m all in on Curtis Painter…and he’s facing another decent matchup against Cincinnati.
• Michael Vick – If he doesn’t play well this week…well…um…yeah.

Projected Worst Performer – Miami’s QB

Let me just put it this way: in the pre-season, Dolphins’ fans were chanting the name of a QB in Denver who threw for 30 yards in the first half this week before being benched in favor of Tim Tebow.  Don’t expect much from Miami QBs for the rest of the year…especially against the Jets.

Dolphins’ QBs’ Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 180 Passing Yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs

Sit Em – Ryan Fitzpatrick

I think this will be a weird game for the Bills.  I think it’s going to be a little bit of a trap game (not unlike Cincinnati a few weeks ago), and the Giants will be looking to respond from their poor performance against Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst.  Fitzpatrick won’t play AWFUL…but there should be plenty of better options in Week 6.

Ryan Fitzpatrick Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 240 yards, 1 TDs, 1 INT

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Six:

• Matt Schaub – Not against a Ravens’ team coming off of a bye.
• Alex Smith – I think the Lions and 49ers will face off in a defensive struggle.  Plus, he’s been surprisingly very good against the blitz this year, but the Lions don’t have to blitz to bring pressure.
• Sam Bradford – Sophomore slump…mixed with the Packers’ defense.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I agree on Romo. The Cowboys are coming off of their bye, have their receivers healthy, and I’m sure are itching to put the Detroit debacle behind them. Plus they get the Patriots a week after they played a major rival. I actually think the Cowboys are a sneaky upset pick in this game, and for that to happen Good Romo must be on display.

Also, I don’t think Jon should get any credit for telling you that whoever plays QB for Miami (Matt Moore, at least to start) will be awful.

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Running Backs 

Projected Best Performer – Ray Rice

He’s one of the best in the business…and he’s coming off a bye, facing an average run defense missing their best linemen.  Rice could run wild against the Texans.

Ray Rice Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 150 Rushing Yards, 1 TD; 60 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Start Em – Peyton Hillis

As you can see, I like guys that are coming off a bye this week, but Hillis should be fully healthy, and facing an Oakland team that could very well be emotionally and physically spent after the draining week that they just completed.  Look for the Big White Avalanche to run a lot of people over this week.

Peyton Hillis Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 140 yards, 2 TDs

Other Start ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Six:

• Michael Turner – Maybe one of these weeks, Atlanta will get back to their roots and actually start running the ball.  Nice matchup against Carolina.
• DeAngelo Williams – I think he has finally shaken off the offseason rust, and should have a nice game against a banged up Atlanta line.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis – He’s looked great in back to back weeks, and the Pats are trying to prove that they have some sort of running game.  Nice matchup against Dallas as well.
• Adrian Peterson – Always…I know…but should have a nice game against Chicago.

Projected Worst Performer – Jahvid Best

I don’t know if he’s not that good*, or if Detroit just doesn’t feel like running the ball when they can throw it up to the cheat-code every single play.  Either way, the San Francisco defense is great, and Best won’t be a big factor unless he can break free on a few screens.

*As I’m writing this, Best runs for an 88 yard TD against Chicago proving that once again, I’m an idiot.  My counter?  Take that one run out and what has he done tonight?!? And the matchup still stinks.

Jahvid Best Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 30 Rushing Yards, 30 Receiving Yards

Sit Em – Arian Foster

I know he’s really good, but the Ravens are allowing less than 75 yards a game on the ground AND are coming off a bye.  A lot of you might have a gut feeling that says to play Foster, and that’s fine.  But my gut is telling me that he will be bottled up early and often this week.

Arian Foster Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 60 total yards

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Six:

• Tim Hightower – He’s going to start getting fewer and fewer touches as the year goes on.
• Jonathan Stewart – Look for his production to diminish as his teammate’s goes up.
• Any Saints’ RB not named Darren Sproles – Just say no to them.  They hardly run the ball, and Sproles is the only guy that Brees really trusts on a consistent basis.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I cannot recommend that anyone sit in Arian Foster. In fact, I’ll say this: whoever is starting at RB for Houston is a must-start player until the Texans RBs put up two straight dud weeks. Even if the Ravens bottle up Foster between the tackles, which is in fact likely, he is a terrific receiver as he showed against Oakland.

And I would not start Peyton Hillis as anything other than a flex. Even at flex I’d be nervous. Hillis has been losing carries to Montario Hardesty, and the hard-line stance he is taking about his contract (which he needs to do for his own sake) is not endearing him to anyone on the new coaching staff I wouldn’t imagine. Look for Hardesty to continue siphoning carries, which kills Hillis’ value.

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Wide Receivers 

Projected Best Performer – Megatron

Just pencil him in every week.

Calvin Johnson Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 120 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Dez Bryant

I think that Bryant and Austin will both have big days against the New England secondary, but Bryant is starting to become Romo’s go to guy in the red zone.  He’s big, athletic, and has great hands.  He should take advantage of mismatches all game.

Dez Bryant Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 95 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Other Start ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Six:

• Mike Wallace – We finally saw the Big Ben I thought we would see all season last week.  Wallace will be benefactor #1.
• Wes Welker – Free points.
• Percy Harvin – He’s quietly having a very solid year for Minnesota despite all of the problems.  I bet you didn’t realize that he’s ranked in the Top 25 of all WRs, thanks in large part to his return skills.  He should get free often against a mediocre Chicago secondary.
• Jeremy Maclin – He’s been quiet for a few weeks, and I think he’s due for a big game against the Redskins.

Projected Worst Performer – Mike Thomas

Bad day for Jacksonville…just like every other day for their fans.

Mike Thomas Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 3 catches for 28 yards

Sit Em – Stevie Johnson

Like I said earlier, I think the Bills will falter a little bit this week, and Stevie J will have a tough game, along with the rest of their offense that isn’t named Fred Jackson

Stevie Johnson Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 5 catches for 55 yards.

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Six:

• Julio Jones – He’s Roy Williams 2.0.  Or maybe Michael Crabtree 2.0.  Either way, it’s not good.
• Ted Ginn Jr. – Ginn is also having a better year than people realize, as he’s ranked the 30th overall WR.  However, I think it will be a defensive struggle against Detroit.  Bad day for Alex Smith = bad day for Ginn.
• Randall Cobb – Not many return yards for him this week against a team coming off a bye…he’s only a play in VERY deep leagues…like, I’m talking 20 team leagues.

Jerod’s thoughts:
First off, from here on out let’s just call the “Projected Best Performer” at WR the “Calvin Johnson Award”. Then you can stop taking the easy answer and be forced to pick who you think will be the 2nd best performer at WR.

As for Percy Harvin, yes he is very quietly having that solid year you alluded to, as in one reception for 11 yards last week. He only has 18 catches in five games. He’s not a must start. He’s a flex at best.

I think you are way too hard on Julio Jones. Yes he struggled in Week 5, but he’d had 100+ yards each of the previous two weeks. He’s already better than Roy Williams ever was, and Julio Jones through five weeks a handful of preseason games has probably already participated in more practices than Michael Crabtree has in his career.

Also, never mention Ted Ginn Jr. in a Start/Sit column again. It hurts my stomach to laugh that hard.

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Tight Ends 

Projected Best Performer – Aaron Hernandez

He’s back, and he would have had a MONSTER game last week if he could have completely shaken off the rust.  He’s the number one TE in the game in my opinion, and he should have a great game against Dallas

Aaron Hernandez Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 150 receiving yards, 1 TD

Start Em – Benjamin Watson

The Raiders gave up a ton of points to BOTH of Houston’s Tight Ends last week.  Watson is a good player, and should have a solid game as the Browns look to rebound after their bye.

Benjamin Watson Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 8 catches for 120 yards, 1 TD

Other Guys I Like:

• Jimmy Graham – He’s unbelievable.
• Dallas Clark – He has to break out eventually, right?
• Jason Witten – Big game for all of Dallas’ receivers against New England

Projected Worst Performer – Scott Chandler

I’ve missed on him every single week.  All of you should probably trade for him now.

Scott Chandler Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 3 catches for 15 yards

Sit Em – Jermichael Finley

I don’t love this pick at all…but I have to pick a guy in the top 12 to have a bad day and he’s my choice.  Rodgers has been spreading the ball out a lot, and it’s possible that Finley gets overlooked for a week or two.  It’s also possible that he catches three TDs like he did against Chicago a few weeks back…but like I said, of all the top TEs, I think he’s the riskiest play at this point.

Jermichael Finley Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 2 catches for 25 yards

Jerod’s thoughts:

Jon, you need to make up your mind. I distinctly remember you saying that Rob Gronkowski was the top tight end in the game before. Now you’re picking his teammate who is still getting back into the groove off of his injury? And what about Jimmy Graham? Yes, is absolutely unbelievable! He has three straight 100 yards, has the love and trust of one of the NFL’s most accurate passers, and has no other tight ends to compete for targets. Jimmy Graham is #1!

As for Finley, I’d never sit him (unless I had Graham, Gronk, Hernandez, or Witten), but the fact that he dropped a few passes Sunday night won’t help him out any either. He’s still a stud though, so I just want people to make sure they have a great alternate option if they are going to sit him.

And now, back by popular demand…

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Defense/Special Teams

[Editor's note: These D/ST picks are all done by Jerod.]

Start Em Defense: New York Jets

They are playing the Miami Dolphins, are getting desperate for a win, and their pride has been challenged. What else really needs to be said?

Other Start ‘Em D/ST Picks for Week Six:

• Pittsburgh Steelers – they got back on track last week and get to face Blaine Gabbert and the one dimensional Jags this week. Gotta love it.
• Green Bay Packers – their secondary has been suspect this year, but they get to face a St. Louis team in Week Six that, while coming off a bye, hasn’t been able to get into any rhythm at all. Also, Clay Matthews will feast on Sam Bradford unless St. Louis’ O-Line really improves.
• San Francisco 49ers – this defense is for real folks; not only do they stop the run, but the secondary is opportunistic. Yes the Detroit offense is explosive, but the 49ers are going to give them all they can handle.

Sit Em Defense: Washington Redskins

The ‘Skins D has been outstanding this year, and they are coming off a bye, and they are facing a reeling 1-4 team that cannot seem to stop turning the ball over. So why am I telling you to sit them? Call it a hunch. Andy Reid is still one of the best offensive coaches on the planet, and the Eagles have explosive talent all over the field. Remember, they may be losing but they’re scoring plenty of points while they do it. Plus, need I remind you what Michael Vick did to Washington last year? The Eagles are 1-4 and really have their backs up against the wall. I expect them to play their best football this week, and that makes them very, very dangerous.

Other Sit ‘EM D/ST Picks for Week Six:

• New York Giants – don’t let their reputation fool you, this is not a top defense anymore, and we know how explosive Buffalo can be.
• Chicago Bears – they are coming off a disappointing, demoralizing Monday night loss and face their nemesis Adrian Peterson, who is in beast mode right now.
• Dallas and New England – this game will be a shootout; stay away from both.

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Okay everyone, there is your Start Em, Sit Em for Week 6. The comment section awaits your questions. Let’s all get some Ws this week.

The Chiefs team as a whole gets a lot of attention this week due mainly to the injury of Jamaal Charles, which opens up some opportunities for other guys on that squad.

The game itself is changing with the way teams throw the ball.  Yes running backs are still important but QBs and WRs are becoming the high scorers week in and week out.  Don’t be late to the party.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Stock Up

QB Colt McCoy

No, Colt is not the caliber of player as Matt Schaub or Tom Brady, but in terms of fantasy value, the Dolphins defense offers a lot of opportunity for the 2^nd year vet.

Two things jump out at me when you look at him this week.  First, the Browns throw the ball a lot in that West Coast system; and second, Miami’s best corner Vonte Davis is out with a hamstring injury.  Couldn’t get a much more favorable matchup than this.

QB Kevin Kolb

The Cards go up against a defense that is slightly underrated.  Be that as it may, the Seattle offense is so inept that 3 and outs have become the norm and the defense is forced to stay on the field.  The defense is averaging over 35 minutes on the field, which is going to create many opportunities for Kolb this week.

RB Jahvid Best

Forget all the talk about the Detroit defense, this offense is putting up some serious numbers.  It seems as if the NFL these days is a pass-first, run-second league, but running backs are still putting up numbers.  The best thing about Best is his versatility and ability to score points from catching passes out of the backfield as he has been targeted 13 times so far this year.

Chargers RBs

If you are looking for the KC defense to rebound after two straight weeks of getting burned for 40 points, this isn’t the week.  San Diego really knows how to spread the wealth around when it comes to their skill players.  On the year, Mike Tolbert and Ryan Mathews are ranked 8^th and 11^th for fantasy RBs and average 20 plus touches each week.

WR David Nelson

This is going to be the week in which we find out if the Bills and their 4 wide receiver offense are for real.  It might sound crazy but against the Patriots, (who aren’t exactly ball hawking this year so far) another 30-point shootout could be in the works.

WR Nate Burleson

Almost put Santana Moss in this spot, but you already know about him, so enough about Moss and more about the man opposite of “Megatron” in Detroit.  Here is an equation to love: fantasy star Matthew Stafford + Minnesota run defense = Nate Burleson big day.  It is looking like a 10-point day for the former Viking and a lot better option than Roy Williams, but more on that later.

TE Rob Gronkowski

While we were saying avoid him last week, and wrongly so, this week is the exact opposite.  No Aaron Hernandez means no more competition for targets amongst TEs and more love from Tom Brady.  Now who wouldn’t like that?

TE Fred Davis

After a few years of not living up to his potential, Davis looks like he has overtaken Chris Cooley as the number one fantasy option at tight end on the Redskins.  Everyone seems to be expecting the Cowboys defense to have a big game with the rival skins coming to town but as Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friend! Fred Davis is looking to have a big day.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Stagnant Stock

Kansas City Backfield

It isn’t normal to do this, but of all the suggestions this could be the most honest one.  Given the obvious, Jamaal Charles is done for the year and the Chiefs just don’t have the receiving options to sling the ball 45 times a game, so here is the deal: Dexter McCluster is small and can’t carry the ball 20 times a game; neither can Thomas Jones because he is a 33 year old RB in the NFL when the life expectancy is around four years; and the third option is Le’Ron McClain, who had a big year in Baltimore when he was one of the feature backs.  Any of these guys could step up and be leaned upon in KC, so its vital to stay up to date with what is going on with that trio.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Stock Down

QB Sam Bradford

Maybe you have him starting on your team, then again maybe you shouldn’t.  If Steven Jackson plays, the Ravens will have the choice of who they want to limit on Sunday.  With the skill of their run defense, chances are Bradford is going to have the cavalry thrown at him by way of the blitz.

QB Matt Cassel

I don’t know if LOL is appropriate for formal writing, but that is what I must say to the play of the 70% owned Cassel.  The Chiefs have scored 10 points this year and Cassel has put up 3 points himself.  Is it bad that he put up 6 of those points in week 1?

RB Shonn Greene

The experts and football heads all around the world can predict big things for anybody, but until they step up, it is best to leave them alone.  The Raiders’ run defense is not as bad as it seems and with a more formal run game, the Jets don’t have the type of offense that gets guys in space like Buffalo does.

RB Joseph Addai

What is worse than a rookie taking away your carries?  A visit from the run stopping Pittsburgh Steelers.  You tend to feel a little bad for this guy, as his skills were fitting well with Peyton Manning.  Check downs, protection changes, and change of pace run plays really let Addai do his thing.  Now he is being leaned upon as the go-to guy in this offense and he just isn’t cut out for that.

WR Early Doucet

It was easy for fantasy owners to get excited about the 16 point game in week 1 against the Panthers but that is in the past.  Why couldn’t he duplicate that performance against the Redskins?  Why is water wet?  All kidding aside, this NFC west matchup could go any way it wants to.  Just don’t count on a double digit game until Kevin Kolb is truly comfortable with this offense.

WR DeSean Jackson

Fantasy Blasphemy!  I just get the feeling that Tom Coughlin will do everything he can to make his day difficult.

TE Kellen Winslow

He’s projected as questionable for Sunday’s game vs Atlanta.  Tampa Bay hasn’t seen the big numbers expected out of Winslow so far in 2011 but its only week 3.  No need to panic about his production.  Just give it some time before you expect the double digit games.

Bills D/ST

That 13 point outing in week 1 was against the hopeless Chiefs.  Did you see what Jason Campbell did against this defense with a slew of his top receivers out?  Oh yea, and add to the fact that New England will hang 59 points on a team if they feel like it, a negative

Two of the biggest Week 1 disappointments square off Monday night in a huge game for both. Going down 0-2 is a huge hurdle to overcome, especially for teams expected to be on the fringe of playoff contention anyway. Because the Giants are the more veteran team, and have the healthier set of skill position players on offense, I think they’ll win this game; but the Rams aren’t going to just roll over and make it easy. If Rex Grossman could have a good day against the Giants, then Sam Bradford sure as hell can too. He will, and this game will be a good one.

Almost a week later and with the game now just hours away, I still feel that way; however, it’s hard to have any confidence in a prediction of this matchup when so many of the key players are question marks due to injuries suffered in Week 1.

So before we get into any analysis, let’s see who is actually playing.

St. Louis Rams Injury Updates

• Sam Bradford injured a finger on his throwing hand in Week 1. He practiced this week and is probable, though we’ll have to wait and see if it affects his accuracy or the zip on his passes.
• Danny Amendola, Bradford’s version of Wes Welker (note: this comparison has to be made by law because Amendola is white) has a dislocated elbow and is out indefinitely. The good news is that it sounds like he’ll be back sooner than was initially expected.
• Steven Jackson injured his quad and is officially listed as questionable, with Cadillac Williams slated to get the carries if SJax can’t go. He is officially a gametime decision, so we’ll have to wait and see.

New York Giants Injury Updates

• Hakeem Nicks injured his knee in Week 1 and has only practiced on a limited basis. Like Jackson, he will be a gametime decision tonight. It sounds like he’ll play, but we’ll have to wait and see.
• Justin Tuck is also a gametime decision. He has a neck injury and officially questionable, with only limited practice time this week.
• Osi Umenyiora, of course, is definitely out with the knee injury.

That’s six of the most important players on these two respective rosters with injury concerns heading into Week 2, with entire offensive gameplans sure to be affected depending on the status of centerpieces like Jackson and Nicks. Since it’s Monday Night Football, and players always want to play on Monday Night Football if at all possible, I’ll assume Jackson and Nicks will play for the purposes of this article.

Rams-Giants Preview

The Rams are and up-and-coming team with a promising young QB, a promising young head coach, and a promising young D. The Giants, on the other hand, are a once great but now over-the-hill bunch with an inconsistent veteran QB, an old and cantankerous head coach, and a banged-up defense.

Still, even as these two teams go in different directions – one ascending, one descending – I’m not sure they have passed eachother quite yet. If you were buying stock in one or the other, you’d want to buy on the Rams and sell on the Giants. For predicting one game, right now, in Week 2 of the 2011 season though, the edge probably still lies with the home team.

For as inconsistent as Eli Manning is, he did throw 31 touchdowns last year. He surprisingly did not throw one against Washington in Week 1, but I think he can rectify that tonight with the duo of Nicks and Manningham. Still, the Giants would be wise to not put this game in Eli’s hands; as evidenced by St. Louis’ defensive performance in Week 1, the Giants should attack the Rams on the ground.

St. Louis actually defended Michael Vick pretty well in Week 1, holding him to 14-32 passing and just 167 yards. The pass rush, led by Chris Long, sacked Vick three times and hit him 11 times. That’s solid pressure, and it’s the kind of pressure that could force Eli Manning into bad decisions – the kind of which he made 25 times last year.

St. Louis was not as successful stopping the Eagles’ ground game though. Led by Vick and LeSean McCoy, the Eagles racked up 236 rushing yards en route to their 31-13 victory. Neither Ahmad Bradshaw nor Brandon Jacobs is close to the runners that Vick and McCoy are, but they are good enough to do some damage if given 30-35 carries between them. That should be the Giants’ roadmap for success against St. Louis.

For the Rams on offense, a unit expected to improve greatly as Bradford matures and with the creative guidance of Josh McDaniels, averaging 5.0 yards per pass attempt in Game 1 had to be a little bit disappointing. The disappointment should be muted by the fact that St. Louis played a Philly team that may just have the best set of corners in the NFL, plus a great rush, so it’s a tough D for a young QB to succeed against. The Giants are nowhere near as talented on defense as the Eagles.

New York did a nice job of bottling up the Washington run game in Week 1, holding the Redskins to just 2.4 yards per carry, but Sexy Rexy Grossman passed for 305 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants’ depleted secondary. If Sam Bradford is destined to be the star that so many of us think he is destined to be, this is a defense he should find success against, even without Amendola. Mike Sims-Walker and Brandon Gibson are good enough receivers for the ultra-accurate Bradford to be able to succeed. I suspect he will.

Rams-Giants Prediction

I’m sticking with my original prediction: the Giants will win, but St. Louis will keep it close. Ultimately, I think the Giants go to back to being a run-first, physical team tonight and ride Bradshaw and Jacobs to victory while minimizing Eli Manning’s opportunities to make mistakes. The Rams’ offense will look better, but they won’t quite have enough.

To me, the edge for the Giants in this game comes from a) being at home, and b) being the more desperate team. There is simply more pressure on the Giants to win with Washington already sitting at 2-0 and Dallas and Philly both already notching a win. The Giants cannot afford to be two games out and in last place this early in the season. The Rams play in a far less competitive division and the worst they can be is one game back even with a loss. And this is still a growing team without the weight of expectation. It’s a subtle difference, but sometimes subtle differences decide close matchups.

Giants 21 | Rams 17

St. Louis Rams at New York Giants Game Info

• Rams-Giants Date, Time, and TV: Monday, September 19th at 8:30 ET on ESPN
• Rams-Giants Announcers: Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, and Ron Jaworski
• Rams-Giants Point Spread: Giants -4.5
• Rams-Giants Over-Under Odds: 43

Unfortunately, the eternal King of Pop is no longer with us (he would have turned 53 just a few days ago on August 29th), and he thus he will never be able to follow in the footsteps of Bruce Springsteen, The Who, John Mellencamp, and others who have taken to the Super Bowl stage as older musicians, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t weave the musical brilliance of Michael Jackson into a post about the National Football League.

So enjoy this homage to my favorite musician of all time, Michael Jackson, as we kick off our coverage of the 2011 NFL season. Here are all 32 Week One starting QBs in the NFL…as Michael Jackson songs.

AFC East

Tom Brady (NE) – “Blame It On The Boogie”

There are high hopes for the reigning NFL MVP heading into 2011. Coming off of the second best statistical season of his career, but yet another playoff loss, it feels like there is more urgency to capture Super Bowl #4 for he and Brilliant Bill. (How else do you explain bringing in a certified turd like Albert Haynesworth?)

However, if you are a Patriots fan, how much confidence can you have after seeing your quarterback dance like this during the offseason?

Is there any kind of historical precedent for a superstar NFL quarterback being videotaped dancing in such a sacless manner and then winning a Super Bowl? I can’t think of one.

So if things do not go as planned in New England this year – and let’s be honest, the plan is Super Bowl or Bust, as it always should be when you have Brady and Belichick – then Patriots fans can simply blame it on the (Brady) boogie.

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Mark Sanchez (NYJ) – “Mama’s Pearl”

Ever since Jets mama bear Rex Ryan named Mark Sanchez his Week 1 starter before Sanchez’s rookie season, the coach has joined Jets supporters across the nation in making excuse after excuse for Sanchez’s overall poor play. For his career, Sanchez has completed just 54.4% of his passes and has thrown four more INTs than he has thrown touchdowns.

Of course, the immediate counter-argument is that Sanchez has also played in his conference’s championship games the last two season, something no other QB in the NFL can say. And as long as the Jets keep on winning, even if Sanchez’s stats and overall play remain underwhelming, in the eyes of mother bear Rex his young QB will undoubtedly remain mama’s pearl.

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Chad Henne (MIA) – “Bad”

To say that Chad Henne has been a disappointment to Dolphins fans would be a gross understatement. His 27:33 career TD:INT ratio has been, in a word, bad. His inability to make good decisions in the red zone has been even worse.

But in Michael Jackson’s song “Bad” he is not singing about someone who sucks. MJ is singing about being a badass. And hey, despite being scrawny, certifiably kooky, and even at times somewhat effeminate, Michael Jackson was a badass.

But can Chad Henne come anything close to badass?

Chad Henne has two choices in 2011: he can either continue being bad in the literal sense of the word, or he can carry his impressive preseason play into the regular season and be bad. Like, say, Drew Brees bad (which actually means good, in this case). And there’s precedent, so says no less an authority than the great Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders and Grantland fame.

No pressure Chad; it’s only the entire Dolphins’ season riding on which “bad” you choose.

———

Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF) – “They Don’t Care About Us”

Ryan Fitzpatrick is still the quarterback in Buffalo, and he is actually more productive than most people give him credit for. However, I’ll reiterate: he plays in Buffalo, which is why many people don’t give him or any other Bills player much credit.

The Bills and their fans would not be wrong to say they don’t care about us in relation to the attention they receive from the national football media at large. But, of course, it’s hard to garner much attention when you don’t win games.

Sure, people cared about the Buffalo Bills at one time, back when they were running roughshod over the AFC on their way to four straight Super Bowls, when the “K-Gun” offense was the cat’s pajamas. But now? Like I said, other than residents of Buffalo and Toronto, no one really cares.

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AFC North

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) – “Ben” and “Dirty Diana”

Obviously young MJ’s classic song “Ben” is a perfect fit for the player NFL analysts refer to simply by his first name, Ben. So let’s just get that out of the way right now.

But stopping at “Ben” for Ben Roethlisberger would be a copout. And we’re not coupouters here at MSF, so we’ll provide a second song for Mr. Roethlisberger aka Bathroom Ben.

And really, what song other than “Dirty Diana” would be appropriate for someone whose idea of a good time is getting drunk with random dirty Dianas and engaging in relations in the bathroom of a bar?

———

Joe Flacco (BAL) – “Beat It”

Do you realize that this Bert doppelganger has completed 62% of his passes and has a solid 60:34 TD:INT ratio for his three-year career? It’s quite possible, perhaps even probable, that Joe Flacco is the most underrated QB in the NFL.

But the stats are just a small part of it.

As we know, QBs are judged by wins and losses. Well, all Joe Flacco has done is beat it — the opposing team that it is — in two-thirds of the regular season games he has started. He has also won a playoff game in each of his three seasons in the NFL. Even the highly acclaimed Matt Ryan can’t beat that.

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Colt McCoy (CLE) – “Little Bitty Pretty One”

The second-year player for the Browns stands just 6’1, which is just an inch taller than noted shorty Drew Brees. The cherubic McCoy also holds the Super Bowl (heck, Wild Card) aspirations of a starving Browns fan base on his little bitty pretty shoulders, as a town desperate for a solid QB and a winning team hopes that McCoy is the answer to its collective prayers.

And yes, I know that the Jackson 5 version of “Little Bitty Pretty One” is a cover of a Frankie Lymon song, but seeing as how Browns fans would be ecstatic if McCoy simply ends up being a cover of their beloved Bernie Kosar, it seems appropriate.

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Andy Dalton (CIN) – “She’s Out of My Life”

In this case, it’s actually a he, not a she, that is out of Dalton and Bengals’ fans lives. And the he in question is Carson Palmer, who has chosen to retire rather than subject himself to anymore Bengals nonsense (assuming he doesn’t make a surprise 11th hour visit to camp).

Of course, while Bengals owner Mike Brown seems to be happily chirping He’s out of my life in reference to Palmer, other observers are criticizing Brown’s “damned indecision and cursed pride” seeing as how he could have traded Palmer and gotten something for him rather than wasting one of the team’s few valuable assets.

Now it’s up to the rookie Dalton to lead the Palmer-less and Ochocinco-less Bengals into 2011. For Bengals fans, it will probably just be another wicked season that “cuts like a knife”, and by Week 8 Bengals fans may be wishing the franchise, or at least the much-maligned Brown, was out of their life.

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AFC South

Peyton Manning (IND) – “Smooth Criminal”

Is anyone smoother at running an offense than Peyton Manning? It’s almost criminal the way he picks apart opposing defenses as if he’s stolen their signals or planted a bug in their huddle.

Regardless, the reason why “Smooth Criminal” is the MJ song perfect for Peyton in 2011 is because all you have to do is substitute one word in the song to make it an almost perfect reenactment of every time the Colts QB has met with the press this offseason.

Peyton Are You OK?
So, Peyton Are You OK
Are You OK, Peyton
Peyton Are You OK?
So, Peyton Are You OK
Are You OK, Peyton
Peyton Are You OK?
So, Peyton Are You OK?
Are You OK, Peyton?
Peyton Are You OK?
So, Peyton Are You Ok, Are You Ok, Peyton?

Well Peyton? Are you? ARE YOU? We’ll find out Week 1.

And if Peyton is okay, and doesn’t miss a start, then the true “smooth criminal” will be Kerry Collins for getting paid $4 million to do…what, exactly?

Matt Schaub (HOU) – “Can You Feel It”

It seems like every year is the Texans’ year.

“No really, this will be the season that Kubiak, Schaub, Johnson, Williams, et al, finally put it together and make the franchise’s first playoff appearance.”

“No, no, this will be the year. Seriously!”

With questions surrounding Peyton Manning’s health, and vultures sure to circle Lucas Oil Stadium should Peyton have to miss any time, this year really could be the year in Houston.

Seriously. For real. I can almost feel it; can you feel it? This year actually will be THE year for the Texans. I even predicted it!

———

Matt Hasselbeck (TEN) – “One More Chance”

Matt Hasselbeck took the Seahawks to their only Super Bowl appearance and gave Seattle, for the most part, above average play at the QB position on a consistent basis for the better part of a decade. Yet despite leading the Seahawks to an unexpected playoff berth and an even more unexpected playoff win last year, he was jettisoned so that Seattle could move on to the…Tarvarlie Jackhurst Era. Win forever!

Hasselbeck landed on his feet though, taking over for the departed Vincerry Youngins in Tennessee. Sure, he’s just keeping the seat warm for Jake Locker, and may not even last the whole season as the starter, but at least Hasselback gets one more chance to lead a team.

Good for him. He’s earned it.

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David Garrard (JAC) – “Somebody’s Watching Me”

Poor David Garrard. No matter what this guy does, he just can never seem to earn himself any job security.

Last year, Garrard completed 64.5% of his passes, threw 23 touchdowns, and had a QB rating of 90.8, keeping the Jags in the playoff hunt until their pathetic defense collapsed during a three-game skid to end the season. And how was Garrard repaid for his solid season? Jacksonville went out and drafted Blaine Gabbert in the first round, meaning Garrard gets to spend yet another season looking over his shoulder with somebody watching him.

Ironically, Jacksonville is one of the worst NFL franchises when it comes to attendance and avoiding blackouts, so perhaps a song called “Nobody’s Watching Me” would have been more appropriate; but “Somebody’s Watching Me” works because it’s one of Michael Jackson’s more recognizable yet underappreciated vocal performances, and Garrard similarly falls into that underappreciated category.

This song won’t make any MJ Greatest Hits CDs (hell, it’s not even his song, it’s Berry Gordy’s son Rockwell’s) just like Garrard won’t ever make an All Pro team, but both have their moments of greatness and are better than most people given them credit for.

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AFC West

Philip Rivers (SD) – “You Wanna Be Starting Something”

Few players start more somethings on the field than Philip Rivers. It seems like he’s always barking at someone on the opposing team, talking trash, and just generally trying to stir things up.

Yes, Philip Rivers always wanna be starting something.

Relatedly, how great of a beat does this song have? It’s slick, quick, and sweet (just like Philip Rivers’ release, coincidentally). Damn the Thriller album was awesome.

———

Jason Campbell (OAK) – “Man In the Mirror”

“Man In the Mirror” is a triumphant song about change, and no quarterback I can remember has gone through more change than Jason Campbell.

I’m pretty sure that either Campbell’s head coach or coordinator has been different for each of his seasons in the NFL. Contrast that with the stability that guys like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees have had, and it’s no wonder why the strong-armed Campbell has toiled in relative obscurity and frustrated his fan bases for the last half decade.

But when Campbell looks at the man in the mirror he’ll see a guy who has never had a season in which he’s thrown more picks than touchdowns and a guy who had improved his accuracy every season before dropping off last year. If the Raiders can develop a few receivers, maybe Campbell can make some change instead of just enduring it.

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Kyle Orton (DEN) – “Human Nature”

It is to be expected that fans will want young first round picks who are upstanding citizens and who were Heisman Trophy-winning college football heroes to play over fully-formed veterans. Kyle Orton, a fully-formed veteran who has proven himself to be solid but unspectacular, needs to remind himself of that this year when, no matter what he does on the field, fans clamor for Tim Tebow to be given a shot as the starting QB.

Why? Why? Tell Kyle that it’s human nature…for fans anyway. Orton just needs to hope it’s not the nature of John Fox. (It’s not.)

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Matt Cassel (KC) – “The Lost Children”

Matt Cassel was never the starting quarterback at USC. For the first several years of his NFL career, he was never the starting quarterback for the New England Patriots. When it came to game experience, Cassel was among the few lost children who had none, but who had enough potential to continue advancing through the ranks.

Then Tom Brady got hurt, Cassel excelled, and he moved on to the Chiefs. After a rough first season he played well last year, taking advantage of a weak schedule and an absurd season by Dwayne Bowe, leading the Chiefs to the playoffs.

Hopes are high this year, but will Cassel be up to the task? If he’s not, he may go back to being a lost NFL child if the demanding Todd Haley and the Chiefs lose faith in his ability to be the franchise’s QB of the future.

———-

Okay, we’re through the AFC. Deep breath. Only 16 more QBs (actually 17; you’ll see…) and songs to go.

One song that did not make the cut, despite being one of my favorite Michael Jackson songs of all-time, is “Rock With You.” It just didn’t seem to fit with anyone.

But since you, dear reader, have continued rocking with me through this long but hopefully entertaining post, I dedicate this classic MJ diddy to you.

———-

NFC East

Tony Romo (DAL) – “The Girl Is Mine”

This is a pretty simple one: Jessica Simpson; this cute but non-famous blonde; Carrie Underwood; former MSF writer (and Chiefs fan!) and current Mrs. Romo Candice Crawford.

It seems like in Tony Romo’s world, he can always say the girl is mine.

Plus, Michael Jackson never wrote a song about fumbling a snap to lose a playoff game. So really, this was the only choice.

(Also, Paul McCartney has played at the new, immaculate Cowboys Stadium, so there is that too.)

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Eli Manning (NYG) – “Scream”

Last year, no quarterback made his team’s fans scream, in both joy and agony, more than Eli Manning. He threw 31 TDs and surpassed 4,000 yards, but he also tossed 25 interceptions. ‘Nuff said.

Except that simply listing off some scream-worthy stats is not enough, because this song is appropriate in yet another way.

Has there ever been a more successful sibling QB tandem in NFL history than Peyton and Eli Manning? They both have Super Bowl rings, so no.

Likewise, has there ever been a more successful sibling pop music tandem in music history than Michael and Janet Jackson? No.

Add it all up and this one just may be the most appropriate song choice of all 32.

———

Michael Vick (PHI) – “Thriller”

Did I say that last song was the most appropriate song choice? It’s only one song later and I’m already re-thinking that bold and possibly foolish statement!

Michael Vick’s name is almost synonymous with the word thriller at this point. What more can I say on this one?

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Jex Beckman (WAS) – “Who Is It?”

See, I told you the NFC would have 17 QBs rather than 16, and it’s all thanks to Mike Shanahan and the Jon Beck/Rex Grossman duo in Washington (shortened above to “Jex Beckman” because that’s so much more fun). Leave it to Daniel Snyder’s franchise to F it all up.

Despite everyone wondering who is it going to be, Mike Shanahan has not officially named a starting QB for Week 1 as of me writing this. And even when he does name a starter, does anyone think that guy will start all 16 games? Hell no.

As the old saying goes, if you have two quarterbacks you really have none. In the case of the Redskins, that most certainly is the case.

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NFC North

Aaron Rodgers (GB) – “Billie Jean”

In my opinion, “Billie Jean” is Michael Jackson’s greatest song and Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL (right now), so this really was a perfect song-player match; but the match goes deeper than just that simple association.

Remember when Michael Jackson moonwalked to Billie Jean in 1983 at the Motown 25th Anniversary celebration? It was his coming out party as a solo artist, removed the shadow cast by his brothers, and established him as the King of Pop.

Similarly, when Aaron Rodgers guided the wild card Packers to the Super Bowl last year while playing near-flawless football, it was his coming out party as a superstar QB, removed the shadow of Brett Favre, and established him as the best quarterback going right now.

It was his Billie Jean moment.

This song is so good, as is Rodgers (did you know he has the highest QB rating of all-time?), that it deserves two videos. So here is the official video for “Billie Jean.”

Let me know when you’re done singing, snapping your fingers, and moonwalking around your house or office so we can continue.

…

Okay, onward we proceed.

Matthew Stafford (DET) – Will You Be There?

For the first time since Barry Sanders, there is legitimate, unmockable playoff hope in Detroit. And apparently I’m drinking the silver and blue Kool-Aid, because I predicted that it will happen*.

* – So, for the record, I officially picked the Lions and Texans to make the playoffs in the same season. Had I thought about in those absurd terms when I was making my picks, I doubt I would have gone through with it.

The biggest question mark on the Lions’ roster is their quarterback. Unfortunately, the Lions and their fans have legitimate reason to ask Matthew Stafford every week will you be there on Sunday? Despite his remarkable talent and big contract, he’s only played 13 out of a possible 32 games during his two-year career thus far.

On the plus side, Stafford did have a QB rating of 91.3 and six TDs against only one interception before getting hurt last year. Plus he’s been dynamite this preseason. Simply put, Stafford has to stay healthy and be there on the field for Detroit to have a shot; if he does, he and the young Lions are talented enough to finally be a force to be reckoned with.

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Jay Cutler (CHI) – “Leave Me Alone”

Jay Cutler is renowned for his rocket arm, but he is not so renowned for his disposition. Of course, as Tom Fornelli points out, who cares if Cutler can be a jerk? If he treats people with a leave me alone attitude and doesn’t always act all Tebow rah-rah on the sidelines, what does it matter if he’s playing in the NFC Championship Game, right?

Hmm…about that whole playing part…

Let’s just say that I bet Jay Cutler wishes people like Maurice Jones-Drew would have kept their mouths shut and left he and his injured knee alone.

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Donovan McNabb (MIN) – “Remember The Time”

Hey, do you remember the time when Donovan McNabb was one of the best QBs in the NFL? When he was leading the Eagles to NFC Championship Games (and even a Super Bowl) on a regular basis? When he was a perennial Pro Bowler?

Yeah, those were good times. Times the Minnesota Vikings are hoping they can relive this season.

Remembering McNabb’s ill-fated and short-lived tenure in Washington does not inspire much confidence, but hey, Eddie Murphy and Magic Johnson probably thought the same thing when they were pitched the idea for this video, yet it turned out pretty well. Maybe the Vikings 2011 season will as well. (Count Drew among those who thinks it could!)

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NFC South

Drew Brees (NO) – “Heal The World”

Is any face more synonymous with the rebuilding of New Orleans in the post-Katrina era than that of Drew Brees? I say no.

A quarterback can’t heal the world, but he certainly can help heal a city, especially when he gives his time and resources to help out in the community and raises civic pride by leading the long-suffering home team to a Super Bowl championship.

The best way I can sum up the greatness of Drew Brees is to do so in the spirit of those ubiquitous Dos Equis commercials: I don’t always root for Purdue grads, but when I do, I prefer that they be truly awesome guys on and off the field…like Drew Brees.

Josh Freeman (TB) – “Dangerous”

Pretty easy, obvious one here right? Not only is this guy young, he’s got a strong arm, wheels, and similarly young and talented weapons to grow up with.

If I’m a defensive coordinator in the NFC South, knowing I have to face this guy twice a year for the next decade, there isn’t much I consider more dangerous than Josh Freeman.

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Matt Ryan (ATL) – “Butterflies”

Though Matt Ryan always gets mentioned before Joe Flacco when people list out the best quarterbacks in the NFL, Ryan has won fewer games, completed a lower percentage of his passes, and amassed a lower QB rating then his 2008 draft classmate.

Most importantly, Ryan is 0-2 in the playoffs while Flacco is 4-3. And even though Flacco’s playoff stats are actually more putrid than Ryan’s own putrid playoff stats, we all know that quarterbacks are judged by wins in December, January, and February. So far, Flacco has gotten them. Ryan hasn’t.

So even though people are anointing Matt Ryan as the Next Great NFL QB, he still has to prove he can shake the playoff butterflies, like Aaron Rodgers did last year, before he can truly enter such a discussion.

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Cam Newton (CAR) – “PYT (Pretty Young Thing)”

Some of these were so easy.

“PYT” is a kinetic, upbeat, exciting song…much like Cam Newton is a kinetic, upbeat, exciting QB (who just happens to also have a kinetic, upbeat, exciting smile that will make him a marketing darling should he be able to produce at all on the field).

And is the term “pretty young thing” more appropriate for anything in the NFL than a young QB filled with potential? Nope.

Winning franchises are built around winning QBs, and Cam Newton is the latest #1 draft pick to be his franchise’s pretty young thing upon which it constructs its hopes and expectations of future success.

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NFC West

Alex Smith (SF) – “Never Can Say Goodbye”

The San Francisco 49ers drafted Alex Smith first overall in the 2005 draft. Since then, he has compiled a paltry QB rating of 72.1, has thrown more picks than TDs, and has been yanked in and out of the lineup like a yo-yo. Most importantly, the team has barely sniffed the playoffs during Smith’s time with the franchise.

Yet the 49ers simply never can say goodbye to one of the most disastrous draft choices in franchise history.

With Smith a free agent after last season, the 49ers had a chance to cut the cord for good. They even drafted a potential QB of the future in Colin Kaepernick. But when push came to shove, Smith couldn’t do better than the 49ers and the 49ers couldn’t do better than Smith. So he’s back. Fans of San Fran are just hoping that the final verse of this classic Jackson 5 tune does not prove apropos for 2011:

Keep thinkin’ that our problems,
Soon are all gonna work out,
But there’s that same unhappy feeling,
And there’s that anguish, there’s that doubt…

49ers fans can’t take much more anguish and doubt, but can anything else be expected until, one day, they finally do say goodbye?

Smith has one final shot this year to turn it around. Otherwise it most certainly will mean goodbye, for good, before next year.

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Sam Bradford (STL) – “Hold My Hand”

In college, Sam Bradford completed 67.6% of his passes. This remarkable skill for throwing a football accurately was the main reason he was chosen #1 overall in the 2010 draft. As a rookie, he completed an impressive 60% of his passes, even with top target Mark Clayton getting injured early in the season. He also threw for over 3,500 yards and tossed more TDs than INTs. As a rookie. This is why so many people are predicting a breakout season from Bradford in 2011.

Another reason people are predicting a Bradford breakout is that Josh McDaniels is now coordinating the Rams’ offense. Yes, the same Josh McDaniels who coordinated the Patriots’ record-setting offense during their 18-1 season, and the same Josh McDaniels who made Kyle Orton a fantasy stud during the first half of last season. The man may be an idiot when it comes to personnel decisions, but he can coordinate a passing game.

Despite their lack of familiarity together, if the offensively brilliant McDaniels just says hold my hand to the prodigiously talented Bradford, and if Bradford acquiesces, these two could make sweet music together…kinda like MJ and Akon did.

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Kevin Kolb (ARI) – “You Are Not Alone”

Last year, Larry Fitzgerald must have felt like an NFL wide receiving orphan. He went from having a potential Hall of Famer (Kurt Warner) throwing him on-the-money lasers and playing in the Super Bowl to having a trio of quarterbacking dipshits (Derek Anderson, Max Hall, and John Skelton) tossing him inaccurate ducks while playing musical chairs behind center. Has an elite wide receiver ever felt more alone? That Fitzgerald still caught 90 balls and over 1,000 yards is a testament to his remarkable skills and further emboldened my belief that he’s the best wide receiver in football today.

Enter the unproven but seemingly solid Kevin Kolb, and Fitzgerald has reason to smile again.

The long-rumored acquisition of Kolb by the Cardinals finally happened once the lockout ended, and I’m sure that Kolb’s first words to his new #1 wide receiver were something along the lines of “You are not alone anymore, Larry.” Now all Kolb has to do is live up to the pressure of playing with the league’s best receiver while being paid like a franchise quarterback. Otherwise he’ll be the one feeling alone after the honeymoon period inevitably ends.

But can he?

In limited action, Kolb’s numbers are decidedly Alex Smith-like (73.2 rating, 60.8 completion percentage, 11:14 TD:INT ratio); and those numbers were all accumulated while playing in the passer-friendly system of Andy Reid. So Kolb is far from a slam dunk, but he can’t possibly be worse than Anderson, Hall, or Skelton, whose collective play last year, in comparison to the rest of the QBs in the league, was akin to the difference between the following awful video in comparison to the rest of Michael Jackson’s immaculate video catalog.

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Tarvaris Jackson (SEA) – “Black or White”

No need for me to ramble on and on for this one like I did for Kevin Kolb.

It’s pretty simple: it don’t matter whether Seattle’s QB is black (TJack) or white (Charlie Whitehurst)…the Seahawks are going to suck.

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Well, that’s it. I hope you enjoyed this post. I certainly enjoyed writing it. In fact, I’d rank creating this post among the five most entertaining posts I’ve ever had the privilege to create here at MSF. What could be better than listening to an artist I love while doing what I love? Nothing. Nothing at all.

But that doesn’t mean that I got ‘em all right.

• Are there any QB-song matches you disagree with?
• Any you’d switch up?
• Any Michael Jackson classics that you’re pissed didn’t make it and just want to embed the video for all to enjoy?

The comment section awaits.

So get up off the wall and comment!

Watch as the young Rams’ star makes a young lady get all verklempt by signing her “Marry Me” sign.

(hat tip: r/sports)

Nice work Sam.

Now leave the ladies alone until February and go out and prove me right about you being a top 12 fantasy QB this year.

Since I have now participated in several drafts and am starting to get a feel for how general values, ratings, and draft positions are shaping up this year, now seems like as good a time as any for the first Fantasy Football Tips Sheet post.

So here are some tips.

1. I’m still convinced that waiting on a quarterback is a good idea

As I said in last week’s fantasy football podcast, I am waiting to take my quarterback this year. There are numerous reasons why this is the case:

• I don’t want to overpay for the real-life Aaron Rodgers hype, which is inflating his fantasy value
• I certainly don’t trust Michael Vick enough to invest a first round pick in him
• Tom Brady’s TD passes the last four seasons: 50, 0, 28, 36 – that’s a lot of fluctuation
• Peyton Manning has his neck issues
• Underrated, steady guys like Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, and Eli Manning are often available in rounds 5 & 6
• High upside guys like Sam Bradford and Matthew Stafford are often available even later than that

Two guys I would consider taking late in the 2nd round or early in the 3rd round (preferably), depending on how the draft fell, would be Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. At that draft position, I think their combination of consistency and upside are worth it. Otherwise, I want to get a top flight running back and wide receiver, because there are big drop-offs at both positions after the first tier. Quarterback, however, has value and upside up and down the list, which is why waiting is a great idea this year.

2. Here are 5 guys I see going too early in drafts and being overrated in general

Arian Foster

To me, he’s a late first round value at best. Why? Allow me to count the ways:

• only one year of production
• coming off heavy workload
• already been hurt twice during offseason/preseason
• was an undrafted free agent (speaks generally to raw talent)
• crowded backfield with healthy Ben Tate means fewer carries

I tend to like my top 5 picks to have fewer question marks than that.

Michael Vick

He was spectacular last year, and like Foster his value was magnified by his low of cost of acquisition – which in many cases, including mine, was a free agent pickup. But remember that the beauty of grabbing Vick as a free agent guy last year was that he posed you no risk. If he was spectacular, great! If he wasn’t, you probably had another solid QB you drafted to sub in. This year, however, you have to spend a first round pick on Vick, which means that his injury history and propensity to be inconsistent come into play.

I do think that Vick can have a very nice season this year, and he certainly has the upside to be the best overall player in fantasy football, but he also has a potential downside that could sabotage your team. If you spend a first round pick on Vick, make sure you get yourself a solid backup somewhere around rounds 7-8, because there is a good chance you’ll need that guy to play a few weeks this year.

DeAngelo Williams

I am seeing DeAngelo Williams go in the 3rd or 4th round in some drafts, but I’m just not seeing the value. Not only has he had two straight years of pretty step production decline, he has missed 13 games. And with Carolina looking to be rather moribund again on offense – such is life breaking in a rookie QB for the second straight year – I don’t see where the touchdown opportunities are going to come from. Plus, you have Jonathan Stewart there to siphon off carries.

I’d love to take a flier on DeAngelo in the 5th or 6th round as a possible flex player, or as a second running back if I have a great first one and two elite WRs plus a QB, but anyone thinking DeAngelo Williams can anchor their RB position this year is setting themselves up to be disappointed.

Dez Bryant

ESPN has Dez Bryant rated as the #12 WR, and I’ve seen people jump up to grab him late in 2nd rounds and early in 3rd rounds. Unless you’re in a keeper league, I don’t see it.

Bryant has amazing talent, and I think that by next year he may be ready to anchor a fantasy WR corps, but right now he hasn’t shown the consistency for me to trust him. And if I’m investing a top 3 pick in a player, I want to be investing in not just talent but also a track record I can trust. Let someone else deal with probable ups and downs that will come with Dez this year.

Mark Ingram, Julio Jones, and A.J. Green (and any other rookie)

Despite years of evidence that it rarely is a smart investment, people continue to draft trendy rookie names too early. This year, the top names are Ingram, Jones, and Green; and while all three are sure to be excellent NFL players in time, fantasy owners are setting them up to disappoint by drafting them over more proven commodities.

In Jones’ case, I can see a reasonable argument for grabbing him in round 7 or 8 – though I wouldn’t – but Ingram and Green are definitely not in situations where they can provide value commensurate with a 4th or 5th round pick, which is where I’ve seen them go.

3. Here are 5 guys I see going too late in drafts and being underrated in general

Ray Rice

There is no one other than Adrian Peterson that I would draft over Ray Rice this year. In a PPR league, I’d take Rice #1. My faith in Rice is based, in part, on my perception that he is safer than all of the other possibilities for the #2 spot. Among my concerns:

• Question marks surrounding the health of Arian Foster and Chris Johnson’s contract status
• Jamaal Charles’ limited of touches in the KC offense
• Maurice Jones-Drew’s knee and the possibility Blaine Gabbert takes over at some point this year
• What I already said above about Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick

Plus, consider this about Rice:

• Willis McGahee is gone, and John Harbaugh has already said that it will be Rice, not Ricky Williams, who get the goalline touches
• Rice’s slow start last year masked the fact that he ended up having a second straight season with #1 RB production
• Rice generates a great deal of value from his receptions (78 and 63 the last two years, respectively), which not only helps in PPR leagues but also has allowed Rice to generate feature-back production while amassing fewer than 600 carries the last two years.

If you follow my fantasy advice, you know I consistently preach minimizing risk early in drafts. Get proven commodities. Be safe early, take chances late. After Adrian Peterson, there is no safer commodity in fantasy football this year than Ray Rice.

Rashard Mendenhall

For many of the reasons I like Ray Rice, I also like Rashard Mendenhall. Not only is Mendenhall on a good offense that will provide him with scoring opportunities, he has two straight years playing 16 games and proving he can anchor a fantasy football team’s running back position, all while amassing fewer than 600 total carries.

Mendenhall does not catch nearly as many passes as Rice, so he’s not the same kind of PPR monster, but in any format Mendenhall is worthy of a first round pick despite often lasting until Round 2. In my mind, as high as #5 or #6 overall is not unreasonable. And if you’re really risk averse and wanted to take Mendenhall ahead of Foster, CJ, Charles, or MJD in a non-PPR league, I would not quibble.

Eli Manning

One person who did not underrate Eli Manning is Jon Washburn, who had Eli as his #10 QB in his recently posted QB rankings for 2011. Unfortunately, many fantasy owners do underrate Eli, which has worked out great for me because I’ve been able to get him as a backup in a number of leagues. Anytime you can get a backup QB with two straight seasons of at least 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns, you’re in great shape. In fact, if you can wait until round 5 or 6 to get Eli as your starter, you’re in great shape.

I know what your rebuttal will be: but he threw 25 interceptions last year! Yes, he did. And that depressed his value a bit. But Eli averaged only 15.8 interceptions over the previous five years, so his INT total last year was most likely a grand aberration.

While losing Steve Smith and Kevin Boss will hurt, Manning still has the superb Hakeem Nicks and the underrated Mario Manningham to throw too. Plus, with the Giants’ dealing with significant issues in their defensive secondary, they could be giving up a lot of points this year. That means Eli will need to match it, which will be good for his yardage and TD totals.

Anquan Boldin

Boldin disappointed fantasy owners during his first year in Baltimore. He only had 64 catches and was held well under 1,000 yards. It was easily the worst statistical season of his career. While I don’t think Boldin will reach the heights of his days catching passes from Kurt Warner, there are reasons to expect a return to 80 catches, 1,000+ yards, and even double-digit TDs:

• Another year to get comfortable with Joe Flacco
• The absence of trusted Flacco targets Derrick Mason and Todd Heap means there are 101 receptions from last season that must be redistributed. Other than Ray Rice, Boldin suddenly has the longest tenure with Flacco of any primary Raven target in the passing game. How many of those 101 receptions do you think will now go Boldin’s way? Even a modest guess of 20 puts Boldin right back at 84 catches for the year.
• The signing of Lee Evans gives the Ravens a deep threat to stretch the field, which will draw some attention away from Boldin.

I’ve been able to get Boldin as a #2 or even #3 WR as late as the 6th and 7th rounds, despite thinking he is a 3rd or 4th round value. If he ends up producing like a 3rd round pick, that is the kind of pick that helps you win fantasy leagues.

Brandon Marshall

There are legit reasons why Marshall is no longer being treated like a #1 WR, his admitted mental issues and quarterback (Chad Henne baby!) chief among them. But it seems to me that the pendulum has swung too far in the opposite direction and that Marshall is now being vastly underrated.

Marshall underperformed his general draft position last year, but he wasn’t terrible. He caught 80+ balls and had over 1,000 yards, but he only had three touchdowns. Still, look at Marshall’s year-by-year numbers. Tell me which season sticks out as the anomaly.

I don’t think Marshall will ever again reach 1,300 yards or 10 TDs, but there is no reason to think he won’t get back to 95-100 catches, somewhere around 1,150 yards, and 6-7 TDs with another year to gain continuity with Henne and with the Dolphins moving away from their run-first focus this year.

Also, the Dolphins should be down in a lot of games this year, which means lots of 4th quarter receptions and yards. Hey, they all count the same!

4. If you’ve never done an auction draft before, do one.

I completed my first auction draft this past weekend, with another one coming up this Sunday. I thoroughly enjoyed the experience, and I have a feeling that I will now start suggesting auctions in every new league I join. Within about five minutes it became clear that the auction format separates the men from the boys when it comes to strategy and knowing the value of individual players. You can’t fake it or hide like you can in a normal snake draft.

I made a number of rookie mistakes – leaving $4 on the table, getting stuck paying $2 for a kicker, having a top-heavy roster – but I had fun and can’t wait to take what I learned into my next auction.

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Have questions? Pose them below or tweet our fantasy account on Twitter: @FantasyMSF. We’ll either answer you directly or save it for a podcast. Either way, we’ll make sure your questions are answered.