As a quick background: I’m a native of St. Louis (Parkway North High ‘02), steadfast in my belief that Imo’s is the greatest pizza in the world, and I count Stan the Man, Willie McGee, and Albert Pujols among my heroes. In 2006, I was given my “sabermetric baptism” when I read Michael Lewis’s “Moneyball,” and I haven’t viewed baseball the same ever since. (Seriously, it was like Salomé removing one of her seven veils or Neo at the end of the first Matrix…I mean, Nate Silver’s PECOTA system made me nearly wet myself. Life-altering to say the least.)

Anyway, biblical intros and sci-fi references aside, I want to start this post off by throwing two names at you: Edgar Renteria and Felipe Lopez. Both of these former All-Stars (and current Free Agents) may very well comprise the Cardinals double play combo in 2009. And this would be great news…if only it were 4 seasons ago.

Unfortunately, as the 2009 Hot Stove Season begins to heat up, this is the current state of affairs in Cardinal Nation. In fact, multiple outlets have reported that the team has an offer on the table for Lopez, so it appears that he will be our man at the keystone next year. And really, I guess Lopez isn’t so bad since one can make a decent case for signing him: At 29, he is one of the youngest available 2B/SS on the market, he had a nice final quarter of the season with the Birds, hitting (small sample size alert!) .385/.426/.538 with 4 homeruns and 21 RBI in 169 plate appearances. Further, Baseball Prospectus rated him at just over 20 runs above replacement in 2008 (among the likes of Alexi Ramirez, Clint Barmes, and Akinori Iwamura).

Looking ahead to 2009, erstwhile sabermatrician Tom Tango just released his 2009 Marcels Projections , which predicts a line of .263/.330/.446 with 8 homeruns and 44 RBI for Felipe in 2009. That seems pretty accurate, and with a little luck, we could have a second basemen posting an OPS above .800. Except…except for the fact that he made $4.9 million last season. How much and how long are we willing to go with Felipe Lopez’s defense at the keystone? Is there enough offensive upside left to justify committing millions to a poor defender over multiple years? Where are you Pete Kozma ?

Even more disconcerting, however, is the interest the Cardinals have shown in Edgar Renteria, who had his worst offensive season in 8 years in 2008, and finished the season as one of the worst defensive regulars at SS. According to vivaelbirdos , best estimates put Renteria at 4-5 runs above replacement next season, or about 2 wins. In the current market, this is worth around $8-10 million for one season, far exceeding what I think this team should be paying a 33 year old shortstop with a diminished skill set. Even if the number was closer to $4-6 million, why not put that toward another lefty in the pen, or for a back-end starter with a higher upside?

I’ll leave you with those questions to discuss in the comments. Thanks for coming by, and be sure to check back here often for analysis and reactions to the 2009 Cardinals’ off-season.

Stay warm out there.

[tags]st. louis cardinals, felipe lopez, mlb, hot stove, edgar renteria[/tags]