A sports blog by and for Midwest Sports Fans
Way back in February, USA Today’s 2011 MLB Preview Magazine published a lengthy piece by yours truly, whereupon I rendered my thoughts on who the most over and underrated players in the game were as we approached the new campaign.
Throughout 2011, I posted monthly updates on these “predictions,” so as to capriciously praise or condemn myself. Today, on the 1st of October with the playoffs upon us, I offer the final “results.”
During my long ride back from KC last night, ESPN radio had Tim Kurkjian on discussing the upcoming playoffs.
In my view, Tim’s one of the few bright minds left at ESPN, so I was disappointed in his response when they asked him the cliché “Can anyone beat the Phillies” question, and he basically gave the cliché answer of “I don’t think so.”
Way back in February, USA Today’s 2011 MLB Preview Magazine published a lengthy piece by yours truly, whereupon I rendered my thoughts on who the most over and underrated players in the game were as we approached the new campaign.
I figured I might as well do occasional updates — especially here at midseason — on these “predictions,” so as to capriciously praise or condemn myself.
Back in February, USA Today’s 2011 MLB Preview Magazine published a lengthy piece by yours truly, whereupon I rendered my thoughts on who the most over and underrated players in the game were as we approached the new campaign.
I figured I might as well do occasional updates on these “predictions,” so as to capriciously praise or condemn myself.
Back in February, USA Today’s 2011 MLB Preview Magazine published a lengthy piece by yours truly, whereupon I rendered my thoughts on who the most over and underrated players in the game were as we approached the new campaign.
I figured I might as well do a monthly update on these “predictions,” so as to capriciously praise or condemn myself.
On Super Bowl Sunday, we had the highest single-day traffic total that we have ever had here at Midwest Sports Fans. Needless to say, I was excited.
However, my pride in the mammoth visitor numbers we put up during the Big Game cannot compete with the pride I feel in seeing a member of the MSF team featured in one of the preeminent baseball preview magazines hitting newsstands everywhere as we zoom closer to pitchers and catchers reporting.
So, on behalf of the entire MSF team, I’d like to congratulate MSF’s own co-editor Ari Kaufman for earning the well-deserved honor of having his writing featured in the USA Today Baseball Preview Magazine. The article is entitled “Some players are overrated and others are underrated. We name names.” As usual, Ari provides strong opinions…and backs them up with numbers.
And for those of you familiar with Ari’s writing, it will not surprise you which side of the argument Ryan Howard is on.
[Editor's note: The article below originally appeared in the 2011 USA Today Baseball Preview Magazine, currently available at newsstands everywhere.]
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Baseball fans are a unique lot. They’re often obsessed with statistics, and they love lists. One particular interest, especially in the era of fantasy sports, is ranking current players either versus each other or those of the past.
With this in mind, as we steamroll toward the 2011 campaign, let’s take a look at the five most overrated and underrated position players in the game today, sticking with guys who have at least three seasons in the big leagues.
The most coveted free agent of this offseason chose to return to Philadelphia mainly because he loved his three months there in 2009. That’s quite a compliment to the city, the team, and their fans.
Those familiar with me personally or via my writing know I’m not exactly a fan of the mainstream sports or news media. I find them mostly arrogant, out of touch, and often unnecessarily condescending, especially toward bloggers out of (justified) fear that we — despite this being a second job for most of us — do a more thorough/accurate job than they.
All this is why I’ve been thrilled the past week or so with the baseball writers’ selections for the 2010 postseason awards.
Ryan Howard has struck out 21 times in his last 38 postseason at bats. That’s about as bad as it gets. In fact, it’s historically futile.
This is un-f’ing-believable.
Joey Votto, who would undoubtedly be in the top 5 if NL MVP voting were held today, was inexplicably not named as an NL All Star reserve by Phillies manager Charlie Manuel.
So who was named? Well, Ryan Howard was, of course.
Yeah, this would be the figurative definition of getting “f’d in the a”.
Continuing from the close of Wednesday’s article on Ryan Howard’s enormous new contract, let’s compare him to another slugger: Adam Dunn.
Mr. Howard had an MVP caliber and historic 2006. Adam Dunn has never had a year which has come close to that. That being said, 2006 was a while ago. Back in 2006, for instance, Travis Hafner hit 42 bombs, and he’s only hit 47 total since.
Dunn has better career stats (130 more RBIs and close to 100 more HRs), though that’s a result of his time in the majors commencing earlier than Howard’s. Consequently, career stats isn’t a fair way to gauge the better “current” player.
Therefore, the best and perhaps only way one can compare the two is to take their last three seasons and look at what I believe to be the two most important offensive statistics: On Base Percentage (OBP) and On Base Plus Slugging (OPS).
Ryan Howard’s extravagant seven year contract is excessive, to put it kindly.
The money is too high, but more poignantly, the length is absurd, which has even caused the media — normally very pro Howard — to question the Phillies’ sanity.
ESPN baseball writer Keith Law opened with this salvo Monday night (subscription only):
“The contract extension the Phillies gave Ryan Howard made me laugh when I first heard about it. If you sign a player two years before he hits free agency, you’re supposed to get a discount. Instead, the Phillies paid a premium, giving Howard more money to cover years when he won’t produce nearly enough value to justify the salary.”
Growing up, the Home Run Derby was always my favorite part of baseball’s All Star weekend. I used to love it. Â I remember my dad telling me about the Home Run Derby TV show that he used to watch with the old stars like Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, and Mickey Mantle; and there was just something inherently exciting about seeing baseball’s biggest and best stars step up to the plate with one thing on their mind: swinging for the fences.
And, of course, this was back in the late 80s and early 90s when my love for the long ball was still untainted by steroids. Â It was the same innocent awe with which I watched Big Mac and Sammy’s 1994 1998 (thanks Scott)Â pursuit of Roger Maris.
Times have changed now, and the home run isn’t quite what it used to be. Â And neither is the Home Run Derby. Â Maybe it’s because of steroids, maybe it’s just because I’m older, or maybe it’s because my childhood heroes like The Big Hurt and The Kid are no longer sweet-swinging for the fences the night before the All Star Game anymore. Â For whatever reason, the Home Run Derby is no longer must-watch TV for me now. Â I’m still interested in it, but I don’t plan my night around watching it.
With all that being said, I had the opportunity to re-watch last year’s Home Run Derby this past weekend. Â They replayed it on either ESPN or the MLB Network, I don’t remember which one, but I sat through the first hour of it just so I could watch Josh Hamilton put on the most amazing 10-out sequence in the history of the Derby. Â I didn’t get to watch the entire thing last year, but after seeing highlights and hearing people gush about it non-stop (especially here in Dallas), I had to watch.
And my goodness, it was everything it was cracked up to be and more. Â I could not find the actual TV broadcast on YouTube, but there is plenty of amateur video available from people who were in the stands that night. Â One of them is below:
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I have never seen a baseball player in that kind of zone before. Â And as the fans realized how hot Hamilton was, they seemed to cheer louder and louder with each successive blast. Â As the announcers said repeatedly, Hamilton may have only broken Bobby Abreu’s single-round record by four, but the difference in the sheer power on display was night and day. Â
Josh Hamilton wasn’t just hitting home runs, he was murdering baseballs and attacking bleachers.  He appeared to be doing it so effortlessly too.  And even though this comparison has been made millions of times over the past 16 or so months, I could not help thinking about how much Hamilton’s incredible story reminded me of one of my all-time favorite movies: The Natural.
Amazingly, Hamilton was not actually crowned the champion last year. Â Justin Morneau of the Twins won it all (as you can see from the chart below). Â But Morneau winning was simply a technicality based on the rules. Â The lasting memory of the 2008 Home Run Derby was Josh Hamilton’s record first round, for everything it was and everything it represented. Â We love baseball because it can provide such magical and majestic moments; last year, Josh Hamilton certainly provided that.
But that was 2008. Â
Tonight, eight players will do their best to provide an encore to Hamilton’s marvelous performance from last year. Â Here are the 2009 Home Run Derby participants:
At first glance, one thing is pretty clear: this has to be the biggest disparity ever between the stature of the players competing for the AL and NL, respectively. Â I have never been so underwhelmed at a Home Run Derby roster as I am looking at the AL. Â In fact, there is not one guy in the AL that I’m looking forward to seeing. Â All I hope is that Joe Mauer does incredibly well and then suffers a post-HR Derby dropoff like so many others have. Â The same goes for Brandon Inge. Â The best thing that could happen this weekend for the White Sox (who were screwed out of a couple additional All Star spots, damnit) would be Mauer and Inge screwing up their swings. Â Come on guys…you can do it!
The NL, however, has the kind of stars that fans want to see in the Home Run Derby.  Albert Pujols will be competing in front of his home crowd, which is just great.  Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder are the kinds of behemoth mashers that harken us all back to the days and memories of guys like Babe Ruth. Â
If the NL guys don’t hit double the amount of HRs that the AL guys hit, I’ll be surprised.
In fact, here are the 2009 Home Run Derby odds and betting lines, at least from one guy. Â Most of the odds I’ve surveyed have been very similar:
As you can see, not a whole lot of balance. Â But no one cares who wins the Home Run Derby between the AL and NL; we all just want to see someone put on a magnificent show or see a couple of guys provide some drama by matching eachother HR for HR until the end. Â And if it’s the great Pujols in front of his home fans, even better. Â
Here are the particulars for tonight’s festivities:
2009 Home Run Derby Quick Preview
The final link above is the the Wikipedia page for the Home Run Derby, which provides the history of the event as well as a breakdown of every past derby. Â Below, I have re-created the table of past Home Run Derby champions. Â Tonight beginning at 7:00 ET, we’ll get to see which NL star will add his name to the list…because let’s be honest, if one of the guys from the AL wins it will be a monumental upset. Â (Go Mauer and Inge!!! Help swing the balance of the AL Central with your Home Run Derby title and subsequent second half swoon!)
| Year | Home Run Derby Champion | Team | Total Home Runs | Ballpark |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | Someone from the NL | Busch Stadium (STL) | ||
| 2008 | Justin Morneau | Minnesota Twins | 22 | Yankee Stadium (NY) |
| 2007 | Vladimir Guerrero | LA Angels | 17 | AT&T Park (SF) |
| 2006 | Ryan Howard | Philadelphia Phillies | 23 | PNC Park (PIT) |
| 2005 | Bobby Abreu | Philadelphia Phillies | 41 | Comerica Park (DET) |
| 2004 | Miguel Tejada | Baltimore Orioles | 27 | Minute Maid Park (HOU) |
| 2003 | Garret Anderson | LA Angels | 22 | U.S. Cellular Field (CHI) |
| 2002 | Jason Giambi | New York Yankees | 24 | Miller Park (MIL) |
| 2001 | Luis Gonzalez | Arizona Diamondbacks | 16 | Safeco Field |
| 2000 | Sammy Sosa | Chicago Cubs | 26 | Turner Field (ATL) |
| 1999 | Ken Griffey, Jr. | Seattle Mariners | 16 | Fenway Park |
| 1998 | Ken Griffey, Jr. | Seattle Mariners | 19 | Coors Field (COL) |
| 1997 | Tino Martinez | New York Yankees | 16 | Jacobs Field (CLE) |
| 1996 | Barry Bonds | San Francisco Giants | 17 | Veterans Stadium (PHI) |
| 1995 | Frank Thomas (Yeeessss!) | Chicago White Sox | 15 | The Ballpark (TEX) |
| 1994 | Ken Griffey, Jr. | Seattle Mariners | 7 | Three Rivers Stadium (PIT) |
| 1993 | Juan Gonzalez | Texas Rangers | 7 | Camden Yards (BAL) |
| 1992 | Mark McGwire | Oakland A's | 12 | Jack Murphy Stadium (SD) |
| 1991 | Cal Ripken, Jr. | Baltimore Orioles | 12 | Skydome (TOR) |
| 1990 | Ryne Sandberg | Chicago Cubs | 3 | Wrigley Field (CHI) |
| 1989 | Eric Davis | Cincinnati Reds | 3 | Anaheim Stadium (LAA) |
| 1988 | canceled due to rain | Riverfront Stadium (CIN) | ||
| 1987 | Andre Dawson | 4 | 4 | Oakland Coliseum (OAK) |
| 1986 | Tie (Wally Joyner, CA; Daryl Strawberry, NYM) | 4 | Astrodome (HOU) | |
| 1985 | Dave Parker | Cincinnati Reds | 6 | Metrodome (MIN) |
Enjoy the derby tonight everyone. Â I doubt we’ll see anything like what we saw from Josh Hamilton last year, but the trio of Pujols-Howard-Fielder should at least be good from some compelling long ball drama.
* – Josh Hamilton photo credit: Deadspin
