One, you are in your league’s championship round and looking for some advice as you try to make the most important lineup decisions of the season. We congratulate you, and we’re here for you. Skip ahead and start soaking in the analysis as you go for your league’s equivalent of The Shiva.

Two, you are in your league’s semifinal round, which means that you play your championship in Week 17. We’re still happy to help you make lineup decisions, but just know that we vehemently disagree with how your league is setup and blame you personally for going along with it.

Or three, you are devastated after a bad beat in Week 15 and engaging in the masochistic act of still reading fantasy football analysis even though you have nothing left to play for. This is pathetic and you should should be ashamed of yourself. Get over it man (or woman). Still though, we feel your pain. We’ve been there. So we welcome your wandering eyes as well.

I suppose you could also be in some kind of keeper league that uses the consolation bracket to help determine next year’s draft order (something we do highly encourage as a great idea) or a league in which money is doled out for third place (a less great idea). Either way, we group you with the first set of folks who still need advice even in Week 16.

Okay, onto this week’s Start/Sit picks…for anyone and everyone who may have stumbled upon this post today.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em QB – Matt Moore

Matt Moor-ino has been very solid the past seven games for which he’s been healthy, putting up at least 13 points in six of them. He’s not at all a high-profile name, but if you don’t have a top 12 QB, or Tim Tebow, I would look at giving Moore the nod in Week 16.

His best WR, Brandon Marshall, has been a TD-machine as of late, and they will also be playing the porous New England passing defense.

If you don’t have another option, look at Moore. You might even be able to pick him up off of the waiver wire.

Matt Moore fantasy football Week 16 projection: 285 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 30 yards rushing

Other Start Em QBs:

• Tim Tebow – On the road in Buffalo…depending on weather…he may RUSH for 100 yards…and throw in a few TDs as well.
• Mike Vick and Tony Romo – Let’s just say, I don’t think there will be a lot of great defense in this game on Saturday.

Sit Em – Ryan Fitzpatrick

Hopefully, you got off of the Fitzpatrick bandwagon in week six…but he is still the #12 ranked fantasy QB and presents a LITTLE value from week to week based on matchups.

Not this week.

The Denver defense is incredibly over-rated (They are ranked 22nd overall, Tebow-haters. That’s a fact. Don’t try to argue against it.), but they have been much better against mediocre offenses. Fitzpatrick should have plenty of trouble against Denver’s speedy linebackers. Most of Buffalo’s offense has come on the ground lately, anyways…don’t expect that to change in week 16.

Ryan Fitzpatrick fantasy football Week 16 projection: 225 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other Sit Em QBs:

• Andy Dalton – This is not your “beginning-of-the-year-Cardinals-secondary” (stats forthcoming).
• Carson Palmer – We should all just sit him out of principle at this point, don’t you think?

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em RB – CJ Spiller

Spiller has had GREAT days two of the last three weeks, including his monstrous 28-point performance last week. If the weather is bad in Buffalo this weekend, look for Spiller to have another breakout.

On wet/slippery/cold fields, the offense ALWAYS has the advantage – especially shifty playmakers like CJ Spiller.

CJ Spiller fantasy football Week 16 projection: 75 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 50 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other Start Em RBs:

• Kendall Hunter – Look for Hunter (who has looked absolutely AWESOME at times) to carry a little larger load down the stretch run of the season as Jim Harbaugh tries to keep Frank Gore fresh for the post-season.
• DeAngelo Williams – Favorable matchup against Tampa Bay, and plus, doesn’t he seem to KILL everybody in the fantasy playoffs like every single year?

Sit Em RB – Marshawn Lynch

Man. What a tough one. I absolutely LOVE Beast Mode. He’s been an absolute fantasy stud the past several weeks. This brings us to the age-old quandary, “Do you play the stud, or do you sit him because of the matchup?”

98% of the time, I would say you should always play the stud. But this year’s San Francisco run defense is FAR from ordinary. Through 14 weeks games, they have not allowed one single rushing touchdown all year!

It’s possible you have NO other options at RB and are forced to start Lynch, but if you have 2 or 3 other guys you like, don’t hesitate to sit Lynch against one of the best run defenses ever – that’s not hyperbole.

Marshawn Lynch fantasy football Week 16 projection: 60 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 12 receiving yards, 0 TDs

Other Sit Em RBs:

• Mike Tolbert – I think Mathews gets most of the touches this week.
• Ryan Grant – The Bears’ defense is great, and they will keep Grant blocked in all day.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em WRs

Start Em WR – Plaxico Burress

A complete hunch…but I think this is one of those weeks where he has like 4 catches for 28 yards…and TWO touchdowns.

He’s been pretty quiet lately, and the Giants will definitely be focusing on stopping the Jets’ running game. I think the Jets will counter by trying to give Sanchez some easier throws…and as bad as he is at times, Sanchez can throw that fade on the sideline very well. Look for Plax to get several looks in the red zone this week.

Plaxico Burress fantasy football Week 16 projection: 4 receptions, 28 yards, 2 TDs

Other Start Em WRs:

• DeSean Jackson, Laurent Robinson, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant – Yes, I’m predicting at least 10 points for ALL of these WRs this week.
• DeMariyus Thomas – He’s actually the #1 WR in fantasy over the last three weeks. Tebow loves him, and he should have another good day in Buffalo this week.
• Victor Cruz – Read below.

Sit Em WR – Hakeem Nicks

Darrelle Revis is an awesome CB…but he’s slightly less awesome when he has to move inside and cover the slot WR. I expect Revis to stay outside and try to shut down the Giants’ deep threat this week. Victor Cruz will be the primary beneficiary as Eli will have to check down to him constantly.

Nicks MIGHT get free on one or two deep balls, but if he doesn’t (or if he drops them when perfectly thrown, like he did last week), he will be a fantasy disappointment in Week 16.

Hakeem Nicks fantasy football Week 16 projection: 4 receptions, 45 yards, 0 TDs

Other Sit Em WRs:

• Brandon Lloyd – Against Pittsburgh AND he’s banged up AND the Rams have QB issues.
• Reggie Wayne – I’m finally turning on him…he’s just nothing without Peyton Manning. It’s a good thing it took me sixteen weeks…

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em TEs

Start Em Tight End – Greg Olsen

Cam LOVES his tight ends in the red zone, and look for Olsen to be the recipient this week.

Greg Olsen fantasy football Week 16 projection: 3 receptions, 40 yards, 1 TD

Sit Em Tight End – Owen Daniels

The big fella is banged up, and I expect Houston to pull him as soon as they can tonight against the Colts. If they get up big, look for all of Houston’s studs to sit.

Owen Daniels fantasy football Week 16 projection: 2 receptions, 25 yards, 0 TDs

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em D/STs

Start Em Defense – ARIZONA CARDINALS

This is my game-changing pick of the week.

Did you know that the Cardinals defense has been improving all year, and that in the last seven weeks, they have only allowed EIGHT touchdowns.

I’ll let you guess where that ranks, league-wide.

Anyway, they will be playing a good Cincinnati team, but a team whose offense is definitely not “lights out” by any means.

If you don’t have one of the top three defenses, go ahead and swoop up the Arizona defense…to the surprise of everyone. And then dominate them this week to win your league.

Sit Em Defense – Detroit

All flash, no substance…especially against a rejuvenated San Diego offense. I would stay away from BOTH defenses in this game.

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Best of luck in Week 16 everyone! We’ll be here all week answering questions in the comment section, and we will have our weekly live chat on Saturday this week. We’ll see you then!

Fantasy Football Week 12: Big Names Who Could Disappoint

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Fitzpatrick is quickly falling from the plateau that he and the Bills were on earlier this season. They started off 4-1, and Fitzpatrick looked like one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks. He has since signed a contract extension, and has played terribly.

The Bills have scored a combined 15 points in their last two games, and it does not seem things will change this week against the Jets. New York has the fifth ranked pass defense, and is very frustrated after a loss to Tim Tebow and the Broncos last Thursday. Keeping Fitzpatrick on the bench is a good idea this week.

Maurice Jones-Drew

Jones-Drew has been a consistent bright spot for the Jaguars over the past few seasons, and he has continued that into this season. He has a touchdown in his last three games, and has rushed for 941 yards on the year.

He and the Jaguars are facing divisional foe Houston today, who only allowed 63 yards to Jones-Drew in their first meeting. Houston has the fourth ranked rush defense at just over 90 yards, and will not let Jones-Drew reach that number today.

Dwayne Bowe

Bowe will once again have Tyler Palko as his quarterback today, even after the Chiefs picked up Kyle Orton on waivers. Orton could start next week, but he has not had enough time to learn the playbook in Kansas City.

Bowe has not had a touchdown catch since Week 5 against the Colts, and it will be tough to find one tonight against the Steelers and their third ranked pass defense. It is tough to bench a high quality receiver like Bowe, but it is tough to expect great results with Palko under center.

Fantasy Football Week 12: Under-the-Radar Players to Consider

John Skelton

Skelton had a game to forget last week against the 49ers, but things will be much better this week and he and the Cardinals are facing the lowly Rams.

Prior to last week’s debacle, Skelton threw for over 300 yards and had 3 touchdowns against the Eagles. He has faced the Rams once already, and threw for 222 yards and a touchdown. In a deep league, he is a reasonable bet to take.

Toby Gerhart

Adrian Peterson is out this week against the Falcons, so Toby Gerhart is taking his place as the Vikings’ main threat out of the backfield.

Gerhart will be going up against the Falcons second ranked rush defense, but he is a power-back who could easily get two touchdowns without even reaching 60 yards.

Lance Moore

Moore has been a reliable option for Drew Brees all season, even though Brees may not always look his way.

Moore is a slot receiver who fits perfectly into the Saints’ offense, and has the ability to have a breakout game, as he did in Weeks 3 and 8. He is a low-risk bet to put in the starting lineup as the second receiver on any fantasy team.

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And don’t forget, we will be live chatting starting at 10:00 CT and going all the way until kickoff. Bring any and all start/sit questions here and we’ll get them answered.

In my opinion though, the hardest thing is staying in the present.

What do I mean?

Well, not only do you have to keep track of all of your players -  every rookie, waiver wire guy, and breakout performer on both your regular teams and weekly fantasy football teams – but you also have to be able to forget about the past and the future.

Who cares if Fred Jackson was bad last week…how will he do THIS week?

I know LeGarrette Blount’s prognosis for the rest of the year looks bleak…but can he give me one more week of solid production?

Most importantly, you have to remember that nobody can be perfect; and no matter how much you know, sometimes the athletes just have bad days.  (Yes, Jerod…I’m talking to you.  I will take my Tim Tebow, Fred Jackson, and Julio Jones predictions with me on my way to a big time network.)

[Editor's note: FINE! GO! I presciently told some people to sit Vincent Jackson and DeMarco Murray with very solid reasoning last week...you think I'm worried about losing YOU and your successful picks? HA!]

In all seriousness though, making predictions is quite hard…especially when you know it’s impossible to hit every pick out of the park.  Fortunately, I was on the money last week, nailing almost 75% of my picks.

Once again, I have to thank Verizon for helping me get there.

As you know, Verizon has hooked me up with a pretty sweet deal.  As part of our agreement, they have given me a Droid Bionic, equipped with NFL Mobile.  No matter where I am, I have instant access (on unbelievable 4G LTE speeds) to every fantasy player on my team.

Once again, I can’t talk about this enough.  Every time a new piece of technology comes out, we all ask ourselves the same question: “Is this REALLY going to be worth it?”  Sometimes, the new creation is called the iPad…and it revolutionizes everything.  Other times, it’s the iPad 2…where a company basically changed a device’s color, put a sticker, and made you waste $600.  When I heard about 4G speeds, I didn’t think twice about it.  I figured it was all a scam, and a waste of money.  Boy was I wrong.  Every time I watch my wife pull out her old-school Blackberry, and simply try to pull up google, I laugh at her.  Then, I get annoyed.  In a world full of impatient people, 4G speeds have made me a happier person.

Anyways, Verizon has helped me to stay current, and even better they have offered the MSF readers something spectacular:

Let me just repeat that again to make sure you noticed:

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Yes, it’s as easy as asking a start/sit question about your fantasy team, which you probably were going to do anyway.

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As always, we begin this week’s post with a quick recap of last week’s picks.  (And also, don’t forget: the Raiders and Chargers play this Thursday Night, so make sure you set your rosters now!)

Last Week’s Picks: 16 for 22 (73 %)

• Hits: Matt Ryan, Tim Tebow, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ben Roethlisberger, Michael Turner, Fred Jackson, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Steve Johnson, Nate Washington, NE Wide Receivers, Jake Ballard, and Scott Chandler
• Misses: LeGarrette Blount, Beanie Wells, Roy Helu, Plaxico Burress (by a half-yard), Dustin Keller, and Vernon Davis.

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 10: Quarterback

Start Em QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick (@ Dallas)

Is Dallas’ defense better this year?  Yes.

Has it regressed in recent weeks?  Yes.

Is their passing defense still below average?  Yes.

Is Fitzpatrick coming off of a rough week and ready to showcase his Harvard pedigree?  Who knows.  I think he is.  And I think that he’s a must-start this week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick fantasy football Week 10 projection: 290 yards, 3 TDs.

Other start ‘em QBs for Week Ten:

• Mark Sanchez – Not that he’s good…but New England’s pass defense is BAD.
• Philip Rivers – Very favorable matchup against a reeling Oakland defense.  Hey, you would be reeling too if your coach just traded TWO #1 draft picks for Carson Palmer.
• Tony Romo – He’s been pretty good at home this year, and Buffalo’s pass defense is atrocious.

Sit Em QB: Jay Cutler (v Detroit)

I actually REALLY like Jay Cutler.

I think he’s a really good quarterback, and he’s incredibly underrated for reasons that are completely unrelated to his actual play on the field.  Unfortunately for him, his offensive line has been, let’s just say…below average this year.  And in Week Ten, he will be matched up against the Detroit defensive line that is coming off a bye.

Yikes.

Jay Cutler fantasy football Week 10 projection: 240 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs.  8 sacks.

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Ten:

• Andy Dalton – He’s good…but Pittsburgh’s pass defense is better.
• Eli Manning – As I’m sure Jerod will note, San Francisco MIGHT have the best defense in the league…Eli might not be ELI-TE this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I like Ryan Fitzpatrick this week, but I don’t want to take him out for Valentine’s Day dinner, get down on one knee, and give him a ring…as you seem to want to do. Fitzpatrick has actually thrown 3 TD passes in a game twice this year, but both came in the first two weeks of the season. The league has caught up to Buffalo since them. Fitzpatrick is a solid start at QB, but hold off the Washburnian marriage proposals.

I’m fine with sitting Cutler against Detroit. The Lions’ D-Line is at least 5X better and tougher than the Eagles’, so I can see this game going much, much differently.

As for Eli struggling against the 49ers, yes I think it will be tough for him. Still, I think Eli is a borderline top-10 QB this week because the way to beat San Fran is through the air – you do not run on them – and frankly, Eli deserves as much respect as any non-Aaron Rodgers QB in the league this year. So sit him at your peril.

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 10: Running Back

Start Em RB: DeAngelo Williams (v Tennessee)

Coming off a bye, Williams will be fresher than he’s been all year.  He’s also playing a Tennessee defense that is ranked 23rd in the league against the run.  With an increased emphasis on stopping Cam Newton, I expect the Panthers to respond by pounding it out on the ground just like old times.

I actually like Jonathan Stewart this week as well, but I expect DeAngelo Williams to have a big game.

DeAngelo Williams fantasy football Week 10 projection: 140 total yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week Ten:

• All starters in the Kansas City/Denver game
• Michael Turner – Atlanta really likes to pound the ball on the ground against the Saints in order to try and control the clock.  Expect Turner to have a great game.

Sit Em RB: Jahvid Best (at Chicago)

He’s a little banged up, and he’s been slipping a lot lately.  The fact is, if not for a few lucky home run plays the last few games he played, Best has been a huge disappointment.  Plus, he only has 3 TOTAL TDs this season – even with Megatron’s unbelievable dominance and all.

I don’t trust Best against Chicago this week at all, even if he somehow plays.  Expect the Lions to throw it…a lot…and be successful.

Jahvid Best fantasy football Week 10 projection: 45 total yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week Ten:

• Knowshon Moreno – HE’S NOT GOOD!!!
• Patriots’ RBs – The Jets will make NE completely one-dimensional this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Loyal MSF fantasy readers, I cannot in good faith endorse DeAngelo Williams as a start in all but the most desperate of circumstances. Just know if you start him that DAW has had one – one – useful fantasy week all season (Week 5 v New Orleans…thanks to one big run). So trust Washburn at your own peril on this one.

As for Jahvid Best, well I can’t let this go without some lampooning, now can I? Jon, you realize you’re telling us all to sit a guy that is widely expected not to start anyway, right?

Best is dealing with yet another concussion, a problem he’s had since college. It’s sad, because he’s a talented player, but I don’t think he’ll ever be able to reach his potential because of injury.

Regardless, Best is a guy to consider dropping, not just sitting, so don’t give Washburn any bonus points next week if he correctly predicted a fantasy football invalid to be worthless.

And finally…sit Knowshon Moreno??? Really? Was that before or after Willis McGahee almost single-handedly spurred the Broncos to victory last week while Moreno had 8 total yards?

Come on Jon. You’re better than these picks; and I only feel comfortable honestly calling you out because I know our readers like you and respect you and will demand more from you.

Besides, honesty and candidness is the MSF way.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 10: Wide Receiver

Start Em WR: Steve Breaston (Denver)

He’s quietly having a solid season, and Denver’s pass defense is very mediocre.

Look for Champ Bailey to cover Dwayne Bowe all day, and look for Breaston to run wild in the process.  This isn’t to say that Bailey will shut down Bowe; actually, I’m trying to point out that a mildly washed up Champ Bailey is Denver’s BEST defensive back, which is good news for KC WRs.

Steve Breaston fantasy football Week 10 projection: 5 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Ten:

• Josh Cribbs – He is having a randomly solid season as well…and he should put up some nice numbers against St. Louis.
• Pierre Garcon – This week might be Indy’s best chance for a W all season.  Look for “the waiter” to have a solid day against Jacksonville.

Sit Em WR: Deion Branch (@ NY Jets)

At this point, if you are still starting New England wide eeceivers not named Wes Welker, you are DEFINITELY not staying current.  However, just in case, don’t start Deion Branch.

Darrelle Revis does NOT do a great job of defending the slot, so he will probably be matched up with Branch all day.  I shouldn’t have to say anything else.

Deion Branch fantasy football Week 10 projection: No catches

Jerod’s thoughts:

I guess we don’t get any other potential sit ‘em WRs this week? Geez Jon; I know you’re distraught about the NBA lockout, but there is no reason to take it out on our loyal fantasy football readers.

Here you go folks…here are a few normally startable WRs that you may want to think twice about:

• AJ Green and the Bengals finally face a good defense, the Steelers. Be wary. The last elite defense Cincy faced was when San Fran shut Green down to the tune of 4 catches for 29 yards.
• You know I like Brandon Lloyd for the balance of the season, but I could see him struggling a bit this week in a low-scoring affair against Cleveland in which Joe Haden will surely be draped all over him.
• Mike Williams has six catches in each of his last three games for Tampa Bay, but he’s averaging less than 10 yards per catch over his last four. Last year’s TD machine isn’t producing TDs, and while I continue to profess patience with him, I’d be okay with you placing the burden of proof on him.

As for Jon’s picks, I think Breaston is a solid option at WR this week, and Deion Branch is a weekly wild card; but with Tom Brady and New England’s offense struggling, I too would sit Branch against the Jets and Revis.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 10: Tight Ends

Start Em TE: Jake Ballard, New York Giants (@ San Francisco)

San Francisco’s defense is VERY good, especially at shutting down opposing running games. Ballard should get a lot of touches in Week Ten as Eli will probably have to throw but still be under pressure much more than he was this past week. Plus, he is gaining trust with Big Play Ballard by the week.

Jake Ballard fantasy football Week 10 projection: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week Ten:

• Brandon Pettigrew – Chicago has a rough time defending TEs.

Sit Em TE: Dallas Clark (Jacksonville)

May he Rest In Peace.

Dallas Clark fantasy football Week 10 projection: 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD

Jerod’s Thoughts:

Hmm…well since Dallas Clark reportedly has a “significant leg injury” I suppose that’s a pretty good Sit ‘Em pick, though I hope you won’t take credit for that as a “hit” next week.

As for Ballard, I continue to like him, so I endorse that start ‘em pick, and I think Brandon Pettigrew could have success against the Bears like Brent Celek did last week.

As for the potential misses in Week 10, I continue to look at Jermichael Finley with skepticism because he just isn’t that involved in the Packers’ offense. He wouldn’t be in my top 12 TEs for this week, and I think you’d be well within your right to place a “prove it” tag on him.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 10: Defenses

[Editor's note: the rest of this post is written by Jerod.]

Start Em Defense: Miami Dolphins (v Washington)

The Dolphins have played better than their record, and their defense showed a lot in last week’s drubbing of the Chiefs. Kansas City isn’t a great team this year, but they can be explosive on offense. The Dolphins wouldn’t let them. This week they face a John Beck-led offense that could do nothing more than dump off to the running back last week against San Francisco.

Miami Dolphins fantasy Football Week 10 projection: 14 or fewer points, 3 or more sacks, 1 or more turnovers

Other Start em D/ST units for Week 10:

• I know that Philly’s D has let you down this year, but against John Skelton and the Cardinals it could be very worthwhile to start them this week.
• The Detroit Lions get to face the porous Bears’ O-Line. Please tell me you aren’t fooled by the Eagles going sackless against them Monday night; the Bears O-Line remains not very good.

Sit Em Defense: Cincinnati Bengals (v Pittsburgh)

I just have a bad feeling that the Steelers are going to exact revenge on Cincy for Sunday night’s loss to Baltimore. I think a major part of it is that I don’t totally trust the Bengals’ D yet. They are good, but are they great?

Big Ben, Mike Wallace, and Antonio Brown can take full advantage of a good-but-not-great D, and I have a feeling that is what will happen here.

Cincinnati Bengals fantasy football Week 10 projection: 21 or more points, 2 sacks, 1 turnover

• Houston’s D has been great this year, but I just have a feeling they will underperform your expectations against a desperate Tampa Bay team in Tampa.
• Stay away from the Saints’ and Falcons’ defenses in Week 10. I would not be surprised if 70+ points are scored in that game.

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There are your start em, sit em picks for Week 10 of the fantasy football season. You know the drill from here. Read ‘em, digest ‘em, and then ask about ‘em. The comment section awaits your lineup-specific questions below.

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Fantasy Football Week 9 Tips: Stars Who Could Disappoint

[Editor's note: remember, these are just players who could disappoint based on what is expected of them. It is not an automatic suggestion that you sit them - that decision could only be made based on who your alternatives are.]

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Fitzpatrick has emerged as one of the top quarterbacks in the league for one of the biggest surprises of the year in the Buffalo Bills. He has thrown at least two touchdowns in five of seven games this year, while leading the Bills to a 5-2 record.

He and the Bills are going up against the Jets and their seventh-ranked pass defense this week. The Jets tough D, coupled with Fitzpatrick’s injured chest, makes it a smart idea to bench Fitzpatrick this week. He is fully expected to play, but the Bills run game will have to take on a heavier load against the Jets’ 25th ranked run defense.

Ray Rice

Rice and the Ravens are preparing to battle the Steelers on Sunday Night Football, in what should be a low-scoring affair. The two teams have two of the NFL’s top five defenses, which will create a problem for Rice and the rest of the Ravens’ offense.

The Steelers allow just under 100 rushing yards on average. They also have the top-ranked pass defense in the NFL, but Joe Flacco will have to take his chances downfield in order for the Ravens to score. Rice had 107 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting between the two teams, a game in which the Ravens won 35-7, but the Steelers defense had to deal with the offense giving up the ball seven times. Don’t expect Rice to put up 100 yards this time around.

Greg Jennings

This is a bold prediction, but Jennings may struggle against the Chargers’ fourth ranked pass defense. They held Dwayne Bowe to 62 yards on four catches last week, and they only allowed one passing touchdown.

I am not doubting the Packers offense this week, but if Jennings is given extra attention by the Chargers’ secondary, Rodgers has plenty of options. He can throw to the likes of Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley, and James Jones if Jennings is covered.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Tips: Under-the-Radar Players

Carson Palmer

Carson Palmer’s situation is far from being under-the-radar, but that does not have to do with his fantasy value. After throwing three interceptions in half of the game two weeks ago, many might have dismissed Palmer as being of any value.

It is important to note that the Raiders are coming off a bye week, which gave Palmer enough time to actually learn the playbook and get to know his receivers. Two weeks ago against Kansas City, Palmer was not supposed to play, as he just joined the team at the beginning of the week. After Kyle Boller had a dreadful first half, Palmer seemed like a better option than continuing on with Boller. With a full week of preparation under his belt, look for Palmer to tear up the weak Denver defense.

Chris Ogbonnaya

With Peyton Hillis missing yet another game, Ogbonnaya will get the start for the Browns as they head into Houston. The key with Ogbonnaya is that he is a primary receiver for Colt McCoy, so he will pick up both receiving and rushing yards. He should be able to reach the endzone at least once in Houston.

Jerome Simpson

Simpson had a tough week last week, as he only caught one pass from Andy Dalton, but it did go for a touchdown. This week should be different for Simpson, who has only failed to have at least three catches in two of seven games this year.

He is the other starting receiver, besides A.J. Green, and should be able to have a big day against the average Tennessee secondary.

First, thank you to everyone who understood my main point: that it’s simply too early to say whether or not Timmy will be good or bad yet.  In no way was I trying to say that Tebow will be better than Elway, Marino, and Manning; my point was how do we REALLY know after only five starts?

Second, while Tebow’s struggles have been magnified because Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, and Christian Ponder have looked so good thus far as rookies.   I think we can all agree that all three of those guys have MUCH better weapons around them than anything the Broncos have this season.

• Cam Newton has FOUR offensive weapons that are better than anyone on the Broncos: Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Greg Olsen.
• Andy Dalton has three: AJ Green, Cedric Benson, and a fantastic defense (seriously…Dalton threw for 160 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs this week…and his team won by TWENTY-TWO!!!! The only way Tebow and the Broncos are doing that anytime soon is if they play Vanderbilt).
• As for the Vikings, Christian Ponder has the best non-QB offensive player in the game on his team (Adrian Peterson) as well as a receiver (Percy Harvin) who is better than anyone in Denver now that Brandon Lloyd is gone.

Once you factor in the defenses (Denver’s is second to last in the league when it comes to scoring defense and worse than Cincinnati, Carolina, and Minnesota in every single category), it shouldn’t surprise anybody that both Tebow and Orton have struggled in 2011 so far with the Broncos.

I guess what’s so troubling to me is the unforgiving stance everyone is taking with Tebow.  Look at the following two stat lines and tell me which QB you would rather have.

• QB #1 – 57 of 118 for 891 yards.  48% completion. 7.55  yards per attempt. 7 TDs, 3 INTs.
• QB #2 – 64 for 137 for 638 yards.  47% completion. 4.65 yards per attempt. 4 TDs, 2 INTs.

Though neither QB is all that desirable, anyone in his or her right mind would take QB #1, who has thrown for more yards, a slightly higher completion rate, and scored more TDs as well.  This is all before taking into account the fact that QB #1 outrushed QB #2 by a margin of 302 to 43 in those games as well.

In this example I’m comparing Tim Tebow to Blaine Gabbert – a guy who was drafted higher than Tebow and who has, so far, gotten through the media scope almost completely unscathed.  In fact, articles have been written explaining why he deserves a free pass for his entire first year.

Once again, I don’t necessarily think Tebow WILL make it as an NFL QB…but shouldn’t we at least make him earn our judgments either way?  Let’s extend to him the same long rookie leash that we give everybody else.

Onto this week’s start em, sit em picks!

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Advice for Week 9

Last Week’s Picks: 21 for 35 (60 %)

Note: last week’s top-line picks were made by Jerod

• Hits: Eli Manning, Cam Newton, Matt Hasselbeck, Tim Tebow, Philip Rivers, Darren Sproles, Peyton Hillis, Montario Hardesty, Knowshon Moreno, DeAngelo Williams, DeMarco Murray, Brandon Lloyd, Antonio Brown, Michael Crabtree, Steve Breaston, Eric Decker, Demariyus Thomas, Reggie Wayne, Brent Celek, Fred Davis, Owen Daniels
• Misses: Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chris Johnson, Mark Ingram, Ryan Torain, Bernard Scott, Sidney Rice, Deion Branch, Jake Ballard, Vernon Davis, Dallas Clark, Heath Miller, Scott Chandler.

As a quick reminder, the following teams have a bye during week 9:

• Detroit
• Minnesota
• Carolina
• Jacksonville

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Quarterbacks

Start Em QB: Matt Ryan, Atlanta (v Indianapolis)

Ryan is currently ranked as the 14th overall fantasy QB, meaning in most leagues he should be a backup.  Fortunately for Matty Ice owners, the Falcons are traveling to Indy this week, where they will face one of the worst pass defenses in history.

Start Matt Ryan with no regrets in week 9.

Matt Ryan fantasy football Week 9 projection: 275 yards passing, 2 TDs

Less Obvious Start Em QB: Tim Tebow, Denver (v Oakland)

Don’t laugh.

The Raiders have the 24th ranked pass defense in the league this year and have gotten into several shootouts with teams already.  I understand the lack of weapons in the Denver passing game may scare you, but Tebow performed pretty well against Oakland last year (150 passing yards, 80 rushing yards, and 2 TDs).

If you have a top 8 QB, you shouldn’t be starting Tebow, but if Matt Stafford or Cam Newton is your starter and thus is on a bye, don’t sweat starting Timmy in week 9.

Tim Tebow fantasy football Week 9 projection: 140 yards passing, 60 yards rushing, 2 total TDs (and probably two total turnovers also)

Other start ‘em QBs for Week Nine:

• Tony Romo – This week, the Romo Coaster goes back up against the Seattle Seahawks…before throwing his fans and owners off a cliff in week ten against the Bills.
• Philip Rivers – The Chargers will probably be playing from behind, and the Packers’ secondary has been very average so far.

Sit Em QB: Joe Flacco, Baltimore (v Pittsburgh)

Don’t be fooled into thinking that since he lit up the Steelers in week one, he will do it again.  He won’t.

I said it a few weeks ago, but I’ll say it again. If you didn’t think Dick LeBeau was a genius before this year, just consider that for over a decade the Steelers have been impossible to run against yet in 2012, as soon as the NFL became a full-fledged passing league, he transformed the Steelers’ defense into the league’s #1 ranked passing defense, allowing opponents a paltry 5.1 yards per attempt.  Unbelievable.

Stay away from Flacco this week.

Joe Flacco fantasy football Week 9 projection: 175 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Nine:

• Ryan Fitzpatrick – Playing the Jets who are coming off a bye…yikes.
• Ben Roethlisberger – I think this week’s Steelers/Ravens game will be a true throwback affair.

Jerod’s thoughts

I love the Ryan pick, and I think he is a guy who owners need to keep an eye on as we move into the second half of the season. He hasn’t been a great fantasy quarterback so far this year, but with a lot of dome games and some favorable matchups coming up, he could be a top-10 QB from here on out, which is all that matters.

As for Tebow, he certainly has more potential value this week than he did last week against the Suh and the Lions, but I think there is a lot of risk there. I want to see him play a decent game from start to finish before I trust my one QB slot to him. What if he’s awful and gets pulled at halftime? Without the backing of his own coaching staff, and how poor he’s looked, I can’t justify starting him unless I’m desperate.

And yes, sit Flacco. He couldn’t get a pass in the end zone last week versus Arizona, and now has zero TD passes in three of his last four games (and in the other game he had just one).

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Running Backs

Start Em RB: Beanie Wells, Arizona (v St. Louis)

While I don’t necessarily love Beanie Wells’ prospects for the rest of the season due to his lingering injury issues, I really like him this week against the Rams.  St. Louis has proven to be vulnerable on the ground this season, and Beanie is coming off of a fantastic game against a very good defense in Baltimore.

Despite his lingering knee issues, look for Beanie to have one or two more good efforts before he tails off to end the year.

Beanie Wells fantasy football Week 9 projection: 95 yards rushing, 2 TDs

Other start ‘em RBs for Week Nine:

• Michael Turner – Against the Colts…okay this one is too obvious, so let’s just ignore it and move on.
• LeGarrette Blount – At this point, it’s still a little early to completely trust Blount, but I really like the Bucs’ running game this week against a suddenly reeling Saints team.  New Orleans just got lit up on the ground against St. Louis, and the Bucs will be looking to keep Dreww Brees off the field as much as possible.  Give Blount your complete trust this week.

Sit Em RB: Fred Jackson, Buffalo (v New York Jets)

I actually like Fred Jackson, who has yet to have a really bad day, a lot for the rest of the season.  However, now is as good a time as ever for that first clunker of 2011 with the Jets coming to town fresh off a bye.

Rex Ryan’s team hasn’t been as consistently good against the run this year as in years’ past, but it was a point of emphasis for their defense all week.  Look for Jackson and the entire Bills offense to have a tough time on Sunday.

Fred Jackson fantasy football Week 9 projection: 40 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week Nine:

• Redskins’ Running Backs – I think Ryan Torain and Roy Helu can be good backs, but I also think that with John Beck starting the 49ers defense, which is already good against the run, will be able to send an 8th man into the box. This is not good news for the Redskins in real life or fantasy.
• Ryan Mathews – Just trust me that when the Chargers are down 21-0 with 12 minutes left in the second quarter, or Mathews is dinged up again, you will wish you had left him on the bench.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Beanie Wells is a very inviting start this weekend, and I would not be surprised to see him finish as a top 5 overall player this week. Except that I would…because I also wouldn’t be surprised to see him scratched from the starting lineup at the last second or removed midway through the game because of an injury. Such is life with Beanie Wells. This is a week to definitely have him in your lineup, but just remember to take nothing for granted on Sunday morning.

And while I agree with your basic premise that Fred Jackson could struggle this week, he’s not sitting on any of my rosters. The Jets have not been their previously dominant selves against the run, and Jackson has earned every-week start status for his ability to run and be a receiver out of the backfield. How many true lead backs are there anymore in the NFL? FJax is one. You better have two or three elite 2011 options if you’re even thinking about sitting him.

And I agree on Blount. A great option for this week, and a solid buy low candidate if you’re looking to make a trade.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Wide Receivers

Start Em WR: Julio Jones, Atlanta (v Indianapolis)

At this point, you all know how I feel about Julio Jones.  I think he’s overrated.  I think AJ Green is 4x better than him.  I think Jones drops a lot of balls, and I think he’s a poor route-runner.

And that’s all well and good, but he’s still super-duper talented athletically…and he’s playing the Colts this week.  I expect at least two home run plays from him in yet another Colts blowout loss.

Julio Jones fantasy football Week 9 projection: 125 yards receiving, 2 TDs

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Nine: 

• Plaxico Burress – He’s already a great target in the end zone, and I have a sneaky suspicion that he and the Sanchize got even MORE acquainted over their bye week.  Even if they didn’t, they are still playing the porous Buffalo passing defense.  Good day for Plaxico.
• Antonio Brown – Ed Reed will be shading towards Mike Wallace all game, and while that won’t completely shut down the speedster, I think that Antonio Brown will rise to the occasion like he did last week and catch a lot of balls underneath, as well as pick up another TD or two.

Sit Em WR: Stevie Johnson, Buffalo (v New York Jets)

Revis Island.  Off a bye week.  Oh boy.

Stevie Johnson fantasy football Week 9 projection: 45 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week Nine:

• Nate Washington – Cincinnati has been surprisingly great against the pass, ranking fifth overall in passing defense.  Look for Washington to be bottled up, especially since the Titans lack a really reliable #2 option now that Chris Johnson has passed away.
• Patriots’ Wide Receivers not named Wes Welker – Uh oh…the Steelers just showed us that the Pats have absolutely no deep threat.  Needless to say, it’s not Welker’s, Hernandez’s, or Gronkowski’s fault.

Jerod’s thoughts:

At this point in the presentation, I can deduce two things: you think Atlanta is going to roughshod over Indianapolis (safe prediction) and you trust Rex Ryan and the Jets’ D to shut down a Buffalo offense that has been pretty good this year (a riskier but not outrageous bet). With that said, I agree with you on sitting Stevie Johnson, assuming someone has strong depth at WR. Stevie is not devoid of value, because he has a nose for the end zone, but Darrelle Revis has certainly locked down better receivers.

I also like Julio Jones this week. I don’t love him, because I think the Falcons have moved away from trying to force-feed him the ball. His targets will now come more in the flow of the offense, and if the Colts jump out to a big lead over Indy – a likely occurrence with Atlanta’s ability to run the ball – then they won’t need to take as many shots down the field. I think it’s a good matchup for Jones, but without the upside you seem to think.

One guy not mentioned that people need to keep their eye on is Michael Crabtree. He is healthy, and having Braylon Edwards opposite him will “take the top off the defense” as they say. Alex Smith looks at Crabtree first in the passing game. In PPR leagues especially, he will be golden for the rest of the year.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Tight Ends

Start Em TE: Jake Ballard, New York Giants (v New England)

After seeing Heath Miller step out of the time machine and look like a young Tony Gonzalez on Sunday, I’m willing to say that the Patriots have a VERY difficult time stopping opposing tight ends.  I fully expect Eli Manning to take note of that, and use Jake Ballard a lot, especially early on in Week 9.

Jake Ballard fantasy football Week 9 projection: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Nine:

• Dustin Keller – He’s having a solid year so far, and Sanchez loves him nearly as much as Plax in the red zone.
• Vernon Davis – He will have a nice bounce back week against a Washington defense that is actually pretty good.  Look for Alex Smith to check down quite a bit to the big tight end.

Sit Em TE: Scott Chandler, Buffalo (v New York Jets)

There’s no way he scores any more TDs this week against the Jets.

Scott Chandler fantasy football Week 9 projection: 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD

Jerod’s thoughts:

I’m now officially beginning to wonder if Rex Ryan wrote this article. You chose a Bill as your sit em RB, WR, and TE, and you mentioned the Bearded Wonder in your “other” section under the QBs. Jon, bro, we get it: you think the Jets’ defense is going to have a strong effort coming off the bye.

I love Ballard. Eli Manning always seems to turn his tight end into a fantasy relevant commodity as the season goes along. Same thing is happening here.

As for Chandler, he made me eat my disparaging words last week, but I agree with you that starting him would make me very nervous this week. He has value, because he’s always a TD threat, but it’s all or nothing with him. Just know that when you start him (and know that none of us can predict with any certainty when he will or will not find openings in the end zone).

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: D/ST

[Editor's Note: because we would not allow Jon to pick the Jets’ defense as his “start ‘em” defense/special teams unit, he decided to boycott this last section of the post. What a baby. So these picks are made by Jerod.]

Start ‘em D/ST: Oakland Raiders (v Denver)

Every year I try to target specific offenses that are so inept as to make even mediocre defenses valuable for one week. The Broncos made the Dolphins’ rag-tag defense very valuable two weeks ago, and an already strong fantasy defense in Detroit become out-of-this-world valuable last week.

This week, the Broncos and struggling QB Tim Tebow face Oakland. The Raiders are physical up front, which is the same formula the Lions used to pressure Tebow last week. Until the young QB proves he can avoid sacks and fumbles, I’m starting any D going up against the Broncos.

Also working in your favor if you nab the Raiders: Jacoby Ford. He’s a weekly threat to get you a bonus TD.

Oakland D/ST fantasy football Week 9 projection: 17 or fewer points allowed, 4+ sacks, 2+ turnovers, 1 TD

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week Nine:

• I like both the Pittsburgh and Baltimore defenses this week. I agree with Jon that this game will be an old school battle. (If by some chance you have to pick one or the other, go with Pittsburgh. Joe Flacco is playing far worse than Big Ben right now).
• I’d want to stay away from Washington offensive players this week against San Francisco, but the Washington defense isn’t a bad option. The 49ers have to travel cross-country and play an early game, which is rarely a good recipe for success for West Coast teams. And with San Fran already being more of a running team than an explosive passing team, it limits their potential to put up big scoring numbers, especially against a solid D like Washington’s.

Sit ‘em D/ST: Seattle Seahawks (v Dallas Cowboys)

I don’t know how many people have been employing the Seahawks D, but there was a groundswell of support for them a few weeks back because they are decent against the run. While that remains true, and the Seahawks have some decent matchups moving forward, I don’t like their chances against an angry, embarrassed Cowboys team that gets to lick its wounds at home this week.

The Cowboys’ offense isn’t nearly as good as everyone thought it would be coming into the season, but it’s much better than it showed last week. The poor Seahawks will feel the brunt of it this weekend.

Seattle D/ST fantasy football Week 9 projection: 27+ points, 2 or fewer sacks, 1 turnover

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week Nine:

• I wouldn’t want either the Giants or Patriots defenses going this week. That game just smells like one that gets into the 30s on both sides.
• The Jets’ D is not as obvious a start candidate as Jon would have you think it is, and I do not say this just to needle Jon. While I like the Jets’ D is general, they simply have not been a dominant unit this year, and the Bills have been a pretty consistent offense. I would not at all be surprised to see this game played in the 20s, which means the Jets would need a defensive TD or a bunch of sacks/turnovers to turn in a great day. It’s possible, but I don’t consider it likely.

 ###

Best of luck to everyone in Week 9.

Make sure you also take a look at Andy’s waiver wire wire pickups for Week 9, and then load up the comment queue with questions. We’ll be around all week to answer them, and of course we’ll be here on Sunday morning to help out with those difficult last minute start/sit questions.

This is a question I’ve been thinking about a lot over the past several weeks, as I continue to be more and more impressed (and surprised) by how well Cam Newton is transitioning to the NFL in his first season.

Cam Newton’s Impressive Start

Frankly, I did not think that Newton was going to become a good NFL quarterback. I certainly did not think it would happen this quickly. But this is why I blog about the NFL in my underpants while typing with Cheetos-stained fingers and other people get paid to scout and draft players*.

* – Of course, plenty of people who do not blog about the NFL in their underpants with Cheetos-stained fingers, and who get paid to scout players, agreed with my assessment about Newton. This just goes to show how inexact a science scouting quarterbacks can be. Except for this guy.

As good as he’s been,nobody is ready to put Cam Newton into Canton yet. It takes more than 8 statistically strong games to classify someone as an elite QB, especially when six of those games have resulted in losses.

In fact, we’re going to learn a lot about Newton over these final 8 weeks while the Panthers essentially “play out the string” and Newton is forced to endure the first losing season of his football career. Leading your team in spite of adversity is one of the most important attributes for a successful NFL QB. We’ll see if Newton has that ability. So far he’s given us no reason to doubt him.

Certainly there is no reason to doubt Newton’s physical skills. He is passing for nearly 300 yards per game (299.1), completing 60.6% of his passes, and has thrown 11 touchdown passes against 9 interceptions. Those are solid numbers for any quarterback, let alone a rookie, and they are made even more impressive when his superlative running stats added to the discussion: 5.1 yards per carry and 7 rushing touchdowns.

And the numbers don’t tell the whole story.

Whereas Tim Tebow’s numbers are not nearly as poor as you might think, and in fact compare favorably to several Hall of Famers’ stats through five starts, Tebow hasn’t looked at all like an NFL QB. Cam Newton, on the other hand, has. He’s played with poise throughout games, including late, and he’s shown that he can make all the throws. He also has shown the ability to hit guys for big plays down the field when they are a open, which is an absolute requisite skill for a quarterback in the NFL. When a QB has a chance to make a big play, it must be made more often than not; simple as that.

Newton has been far from perfect, and he has plenty of growing to do, but I don’t think anyone is anything but highly impressed with his first eight games as an NFL quarterback. Many may not have been as low on Newton as I was before the season, but I doubt anyone other than Cam himself expected this kind of success out of the gate.

And all of this leads me back to my original question: how many NFL teams would trade their QB right now for Cam Newton?

Hypothetically Speaking…

For our purposes, assume that everything is how it is (team records, contracts, rosters, coaches, etc) and that every NFL team is given the option of swapping its current QB right now for Newton. I admit that is 100% ridiculous because Carolina wouldn’t trade Cam Newton for anyone (except maybe Aaron Rodgers…), but humor me for the sake of discussion. The result of this hypothetical transaction would be Newton quarterbacking the team for the rest of this season, in place of their current QB, and then being their QB through the rest of his rookie contract.

There are a number of easy answers on both sides, teams that wouldn’t even think twice about saying yes or no:

• Automatic No: New England, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, New Orleans, New York Giants
• Automatic Yes: Miami, Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver, Washington, Seattle

I shouldn’t have to defend any of the automatic “no” choices. Each team has a Super Bowl-winning QB, and each team feels it is a contender this season. As tantalized as they may be by Newton, none of these teams would trade their guy for him. (And anyone who doesn’t think Eli deserves this kind of respect is, in my opinion, crazy.)

As for the automatic yeses, I can maybe-possibly see some saying that Tennessee and Jacksonville have “QBs of the future” in Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert, but both teams would have rather had Newton in the draft and surely would rather have him now. These and the others are absolute no-brainers to me.

Now let’s go one-by-one through the remaining teams and figure out a) if they would trade their current QB for Cam Newton, and b) if they should trade their current QB for Cam Newton, because I bet the answers won’t often be the same. Of course these are all just my opinions based on how I see each team’s situation.

As always, I encourage disagreement, discussion, and even constructive criticism. That’s what comment sections are for. And there is a poll at the end of this post so we can crowdsource some kind of consensus for the non-obvious teams.

Here goes…

Buffalo Bills – Ryan Fitzpatrick (current record: 5-2)

The Bills just locked Fitzpatrick up to a long-term contract that will pay him $24 million and keep him as the signal caller in Buffalo for at least the next 2-3 years. Considering the deal Arizona signed Kevin Kolb to in the offseason, Fitzpatrick certainly deserves this contract. He has passed for 1,739 yards this year and twice as many touchdowns as interceptions, and he’s led Buffalo to first place in the AFC East. There is perhaps concern that Fitzpatrick is playing over his head, as his current completion rate is 8 points higher than his career average, and his QB rating is 20 points higher than his career average, but Fitzpatrick also could just be showing the normal progression that a good young NFL quarterback will make.

Personally, I’m not sold on Fitzpatrick as a top-tier option for the future who can compete against the likes of Brady, Roethlisberger, and Peyton Manning If He Plays Again (his new name). Fitzpatrick is a solid guy who can transition you from one franchise QB to the next, but I don’t think he is the type of QB who will make you a winner year in, year out. Cam Newton may be. But with the Bills sitting in first place in the AFC East, and the good feelings of the contract still fresh, I don’t think they’d make the move even though I would.

• Would they? No
• Should they? Yes

New York Jets – Mark Sanchez (4-3)

This is one of the more intriguing ones.

Even though Mark Sanchez has really done nothing to show that he can or will become a top-tier NFL quarterback (54.7% completions, 41 TD:39 INT for career), he has ridden the coattails of a great defense and an above-average running game to two straight AFC title games. His coach continues to profess confidence in him, and I think would rather win with “his guy” Sanchez, or die trying, than admit he was wrong and bring in another QB…at least right now.

Simply put: I think most objective people would make this trade in a heartbeat, and maybe the Jets front office would force it to happen; but I think Rex Ryan is so dug in with Sanchez that he’d do everything to veto it and give Sanchez another chance to finish the job this year. (I’ll be curious to hear from Jets fans on this one…)

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes

Cincinnati Bengals – Andy Dalton (5-2)

Here is another one where short-term success might lead to myopic thinking.

The Bengals are, shockingly, sitting at 5-2 with their red-haired rookie QB and glue-handed rookie WR leading the offense. The Bengals’ defense has been great so far this season, but Dalton has been far from just a caretaker. He’s thrown 9 TDs and is completing 62.4% of his passes. Dalton’s sprint out of the gate has been nothing short of shocking.

But here is where I throw a little cold water on the fire: Cincinnati has beaten Cleveland, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Seattle. Buffalo is good, the other four teams are not. So do we really know how good Dalton is? I don’t think so. In his one start against a god defense this year, Week 3 versus San Francisco, he was putrid. We’ll know a lot more about Dalton after his four games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Like many teams, Cincy would have jumped at the chance to draft Cam Newton, but their first place positioning in the AFC North, and the fans’ growing attachment to Dalton, plus their history of personnel ineptitude, lead me to believe that the Bengals would forgo the chance to get Newton to hang onto Dalton. It would be a mistake.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes

As you can see, I have little faith in Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, or Andy Dalton, at least in relation to Cam Newton; but I also have little faith that any of their teams would trade them for Newton.

This next one though might be the most intriguing of all.

Baltimore Ravens – Joe Flacco (5-2)

Ever since Joe Flacco has taken over as QB in Baltimore, the Ravens’ offense has been as up-and-down as any offense in the NFL. Flacco has seven games in which he has tossed three or more touchdowns. He also 24 games in which he’s thrown zero touchdowns, including four playoff games (though he often gets credited with being a “winning” playoff QB). All the while, Baltimore has had a good-to-great defense and a solid running game.

Now in his fourth year, and with just one TD pass in his last four games, can the Ravens and team leaders like Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs really still have that much confidence in Flacco? I know they call him “Joe Cool” because he never seems rattled, but that’s mostly because he barely looks like he has a pulse at times. Cam Newton also never gets rattled, but he plays with an energy and smile that are both infectious. Yes, I’m one of those who believes that how you “look” and what your body language says means something when you’re the QB. Whatever Flacco may have over Newton in experience is negated by his comatose on-field appearance.

All of this is to say that I would, in a heartbeat, trade Flacco for Newton if I was the Ravens. After the last four games, and with Lewis especially running out of time, I think the Ravens would too.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes

Indianapolis Colts – Peyton Manning (0-8)

Of course the Colts would trade Curtis Painter straight up for Cam Newton. Duh. But what’s the fun in that? The real juicy question would be, right this very moment, would the Colts trade Peyton Manning If He Plays Again for Newton? And the answer is that none of us have enough information to answer. It would all come down to Manning’s health.

If there is even an iota of a chance that he can come back and play at 80-85% of his previous effectiveness, Indy would hold onto Peyton. But if they doubt he ever plays again, even if he wants to and is working like the dickens to get back, wouldn’t Indy have to trade for Cam as opposed to waiting around to see if they suck enough for Luck?

Ultimately, I think the uncertainty would tip the scales in favor of keeping Manning, and that’s the right call. It feels like there is something unfinished about Manning’s tenure in Indianapolis, and though I logically know that neck injuries can end careers, I’d still be shocked if Manning never suits up for Indy again. So I can’t see Indy pulling the trigger on this move. And with the team possibly positioning itself to draft Andrew Luck anyway, there would be no reason to trade Manning before they know as much as possible about his potential comeback.

I anticipate a lot of debate and perhaps disagreement about this one. In fact, I’m already starting to disagree with myself. I better just move along.

• Would they? No
• Should they? No

Houston Texans – Matt Schaub (5-3)

I don’t think for a second that Houston would even entertain this thought, not with Schaub and Kubiak finally on the cusp of making it to the playoffs. As good/bland as Schaub may be, good/bland isn’t necessarily an awful thing for a QB to be on a team that has a great running game, an elite WR, and a strong defense. This is the first time Houston has had all three working in the same season, and Schaub is the right guy to lead them. I wouldn’t mess with what they have going right now, not with the AFC South up for grabs this year and into the future, and I don’t think they would either.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No

San Diego Chargers – Philip Rivers (4-2)

Coming into this season it would have seemed laughable for Philip Rivers to be on this list, and perhaps it still is, but Rivers has thrown 7 TDs against 9 INTs this year, and it’s not like he has a Super Bowl title or many playoff skins on the wall to grant him immunity from at least entering this discussion.

Still, I doubt there is a chance the Chargers would seriously consider it. Rivers has a strong regular season track record over multiple seasons, and he has undoubtedly been hurt by Antonio Gates’ absence early this season. Just like I don’t think teams should overreact to a fast early season start and overrate their players (as may be the case right now in Buffalo and Cincy), I don’t think teams should underrate their players because of a slow start.

The irony of ironies, of course, is that the slow-starting Chargers are off to a fast 4-2 start during the season when their QB has more or less stunk. Go figure.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No

Philadelphia Eagles – Michael Vick (3-4)

Another one that is fascinating to think about. The Eagles went all-in on this season and are just now starting to dig themselves out of their early season hole. As tempting as it might be to get Newton, who is similar to Vick but with 6-7 years less mileage, I can’t see Andy Reid doing it. Vick is the better choice for this season and the Eagles are in it to win it in 2011.

That said, I think Newton is showing the ability to do a lot of the things Vick couldn’t or wouldn’t do early in his career. I’d love to see what Reid could do with a guy like Newton, who is not quite the runner Vick is but who is light years ahead of where Vick was as a passer in his rookie season. Just because the Eagles picked this year as the year to go for it all doesn’t mean they should necessarily mortgage a chance to improve themselves for the long term. And is Vick really playing so well that Newton couldn’t come close to replicating him, thus keeping the Eagles in contention this year? I don’t think so.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Dallas Cowboys – Tony Romo (3-4)

Whatever my answer is here it is sure to stir up some controversy, just because that’s how any discussions about Tony Romo are sure to go.

I’ve always been a Romo supporter, thinking that his critics didn’t give him enough credit for being one of the top 10 QBs in the league. While I still think Romo is an above average QB, I’m not as sold on him anymore as a potential champion. Sure, with the right supporting cast he could win a Super Bowl – hell, Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl – but I’m no longer sure that Romo can lead a franchise to a Super Bowl, and there is a big difference.

I don’t know if Cam Newton can lead a team to a Super Bowl either. It’s way to early to even consider such questions. But we did just see him lead his college team to a championship in the toughest conference in all of college football, all while rumors and innuendo and investigations were swirling around him constantly. Newton’s got it, whatever it is, and Tony Romo hasn’t proven that he does. So wouldn’t it be worth taking a chance on Newton if you’re convinced Romo probably can’t be the guy to lead a champion?

The answer to this one comes down to your belief in Romo. I no longer believe. Give me Cam. Unfortunately for Cowboys fans, Jerry Jones probably still believes in Romo. At the least, he believes in his own ego and won’t want to admit Romo can’t get it done. Hell, he wouldn’t even trade Martellus Bennett to Cincinnati for a second round pick. Why would he trade Romo for Newton?

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Detroit Lions – Matthew Stafford (6-2)

I considered putting the Lions in the automatic no category, but Mr. Glass didn’t deserve to be considered on par with Brady, Ben, Aaron Rogers, and Drew Brees. He hasn’t played a full season yet, and he hasn’t been so transcendent when he has played that Detroit wouldn’t at least consider the move.

I don’t think they’d do it though. Even with Stafford making way more money than Cam, he is the guy they have built around, and I don’t think the Lions would shake up the franchise that drastically when it is finally experiencing a true ascension.

As for me, I’d do it. Cam is showing that he knows how to utilize a top-fight receiver, and he he does not carry the same injury-prone reputation of Stafford. Add in the cost savings of Newton’s contract over Stafford’s, and I’d much rather have the rookie over the third year guy, even for the rest of the this year and certainly beyond.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Chicago Bears – Jay Cutler (4-3)

See the entry above about Joe Flacco, replace his name with “Jay Cutler” and replace “Ray Lewis” with “Brian Urlacher”. There is no reason for me to repeat myself.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes

Minnesota Vikings – Christian Ponder (2-6)

Ponder and the Vikings beat Newton and the Panthers this past weekend, with Ponder having his second straight impressive start. And while Vikings fans are slowly talking themselves into the Ponder Era, the reality is that the Vikings would have traded St. Paul to draft Newton last year, and as polished as Ponder seems to be both on and off the field, he doesn’t have 1/10th the physical potential of Newton. Minnesota probably should have been an automatic.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Josh Freeman (4-3)

Freeman was the up-and-coming superstar young quarterback coming into this season, but he has fallen back down to earth a bit through the first half of the year. His interceptions are way up, and he just doesn’t seem as comfortable or confident as he was last year, when he and rookie Mike Williams were as explosive as just about any QB-WR combo in the league.

Still, despite his struggles, I think Tampa Bay is committed to Freeman as the future of its franchise, and I know that Raheem Morris (who coached Freeman in college) believes in his young QB. Freeman is another guy who surprised me by having a smoother transition to the NFL than I thought he would. He has all of the physical tools to bust out of his current slump and still become a top-10 QB. I’d hold tight, and I think Tampa Bay would too.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No
  

Atlanta Falcons – Matt Ryan (4-3)

Like the Lions with Stafford, I don’t think Atlanta would consider making this move for more than a few seconds, but Ryan is not quite the slam dunk franchise QB that some make him out to be. He has not risen to the occasion in the Falcons’ biggest games, and he does not possess the accuracy that the top flight quarterbacks all have. He does “look” the part, he’s tough, and he’s a strong leader, which is why Atlanta is surely satisfied with Ryan and not looking to move on, nor should they be. As many questions as I have about Ryan, he’s shown enough to make me think that, unlike Romo, he could lead a franchise to a Super Bowl. With the investment Atlanta has already made in him, they’d hold tight, and I agree.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No
  

San Francisco 49ers – Alex Smith (6-1)

Another very, very intriguing one simply because of how this season has started. This one falls right in line with the Bills and Bengals, two teams doing far better than anyone expected thanks to solid play from their QB. Smith has not been asked to win games for the 49ers this year, he’s just been asked not to lose them with a great defense and solid running game by his side. And he hasn’t.

Still, this is Alex Smith. He has not done anything spectacular this year that Cam Newton couldn’t have done, even as a rookie. The issue would be whether Newton would have made mistakes that Smith wouldn’t have made to sabotage the 49ers in a game or two. That I don’t know. But I do know that, again, this is Alex Smith. As solid as he’s been, and as much of an impact as Jim Harbaugh has made on him, the difference in talent and swagger between he and Newton is obvious.

To me, the 6-1 record of the 49ers, and their incredible four game lead this early in this season, would make the team more likely to do such a deal. They’d have some cushion if Newton struggled to adapt to his new surroundings; though one thing we have learned about Newton is that he rarely if ever struggles to adapt. It may be his greatest strength of all.

• Would they? Yes (Well…maybe…probably)
  
• Should they? Yes
  

St. Louis Rams – Sam Bradford (1-6)

Following right along with my thoughts on Stafford and Ryan, I don’t think there is much of a chance that St. Louis would pull the plug on the Bradford Era already, especially considering Bradford was the NFL’s Rookie of the Year last year and just needs protection and a few good targets to showcase his pinpoint accuracy. But like Stafford and Ryan, Bradford hasn’t earned Automatic No status. So the Rams might think about it, especially considering the money, but I think they’d stick with Bradford, and I wouldn’t blame them. I still think he’s going to be a star.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No
  

Arizona Cardinals – Kevin Kolb (1-6)

I thought long and hard about putting Arizona in Automatic Yes territory, but would they really cut the cord on Kolb so soon after giving him a long-term deal? Of course they should, but we know how egos sometimes get in the way of sound decision making, so I just wonder if they would.

Ultimately, I think so. Larry Fitzgerald has to be watching Cam Newton resuscitate Steve Smith’s career and get horribly jealous. That’s what Kolb was supposed to do for Fitzy, but obviously he hasn’t come close. Not that Arizona should be surprised by this mind you, because Kolb is basically just doing exactly what he did in Philadelphia. What, should he have turned down the money?

I don’t think it would take Arizona very long to say yes here.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes

###

So, how many teams would trade their current QB for Cam Newton right now?

Okay, let’s tally up the “would they” column, as decided by me:

• No: Buffalo, New York Jets, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Houston, San Diego, Philadelphia, Dallas, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, St. Louis
• Yes: Baltimore, Chicago, Minnesota, San Francisco, Arizona

Combined with the automatics from up above, that means I think 14 teams would trade their current starting quarterback straight up for Cam Newton. That seems very low to me; and of course it would seem low to me because I personally project a lot of disconnect between what teams should do and what they would do were this a real rather than hypothetical situation.

If I tally it up in terms of my “should they” answers, it would look much different:

• No: Indianapolis, Houston, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, St. Louis
• Yes: Buffalo, New York Jets, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Dallas, Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota, San Francisco, Arizona

Based on what I would do in each team’s case, I think 20 teams’ QB situations would be improved immediately with Cam Newton. Maybe for a few there would be a short-term step back, but it would be worth it for the projected long-term steps forward.

But what I am really interested in here is your opinion.

Below is a poll that lists all of the teams I think are not obvious. Vote for all of the ones who you think should (not necessarily would) trade their current QB straight up for Cam Newton in our hypothetical fantasy. Then take to the comment section to state your peace or to agree/disagree with any of my assessments.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

I invite your thoughts below.

Now for this week we have some interesting picks for you, but a lot of them are on the down side of the stock.  I had one person ask me how I could have DeMarco Murray down this week after his big game last week; easy.  Just look at Adrian Peterson’s stats after he set the NFL record for yards in a game.  Stay here: he scored 5 points.

We have a special treat for you in this installment of the stock report: kickers, tricks and more.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Stock Report: Stock Up

Ben Roethlisberger

Everyone knows how polarizing the Patriots offense and defense are, which fall into the lap of Big Ben this week.  This game seriously has potential for each team to get into the 30s and here is why: yes the Steelers defense is very good, but not against Tom Brady who is 6-1 against them with a 104 rating for his career…so a shootout looks probable.

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Are fantasy owners starting to shy away from the early season success story that is thee Ryan Fitzpatrick?  We are talking about the resurgence of the Jim Kelly-run no-huddle offense that had the Bills in four consecutive Super Bowls, in which Ryan Fitzpatrick will be directing!  All jokes aside, this is the time to see what the Bills are really made of, and if they are to play at a high level then Fitz will as well.

Ryan Torain

It looks like some fantasy owners are glad that their recent acquisition of Torain a few weeks ago is finally going to pay off with Tim Hightower going down for the season.  The Santana Moss injury puts more pressure on the RB, but also should get his more carries as John Beck is still the starter.  John Beck.

Jackie Battle

If anyone is in need of starting back, you had better at least get Battle on your roster while he is still available.  At this point in the season the Chiefs are at a crossroads.  After coming back to a respectable 3-3 record, the boys in KC are a game away from claiming the division lead.  Either way, Battle clearly gives them the best option at running back with Jamaal Charles out, though they still give everyone the ball.  They’ll take note of Battle’s 5.2 YPC average sooner or later.

Greg Little

5 catches for 31 yards and 3 points doesn’t exactly scream hope for a rookie in a dysfunctional offense that just lost two other starters not named Peyton Hillis.  And to tack onto the problems, the Browns are at San Francisco too.  Who cares!?  Little has the ability to hold his own in this league, and with two of those starters out being pass catchers, he’s going to be counted on heavily.

Braylon Edwards

Oh what do you know, Braylon Edwards facing his old team again, only this time with a new one.  This wild prediction hinges upon the fact that he actually plays this week against the Browns.  He has too much talent for this matchup to not inspire him to get back at a few old teammates during a home game in “his” house.  This league is so coincidental that I could see him having a big day just because…and I don’t know why.

Fred Davis

In the small pond that is the Washington Redskins offense, Fred Davis is the big fish by default.  If you ask why, just think of it this way; the offense went from a modest crew of Grossman, Moss, Hightower and Cooley to Beck, Gaffney, Torain and Davis.  We hope that Davis’ skills will help back that claim up.

Rob Bironas

Kicker Alert!  Kickers don’t get the love they should. Even though their success is often dependent on the offense they are on, that doesn’t mean they should be forgotten about.  Now, because this is a team game let’s look at who the Titans have on their schedule this week.  Oh yes the Colts, and everyone blows out the Colts right?

Fantasy Football Week 8 Stock Report: Stock Down

Cam Newton

The Panthers’ run defense is terrible to say it nicely, and going up against Adrian Peterson right now isn’t exactly a favorable matchup.  What does this mean for Killa Cam?  Minnesota wanting to play ball control in a winnable game leading to less possessions for Carolina and ultimately less points for the rookie.  Who knows, he could go off for 30+ this weekend, but he can’t be this good all the time can he?

DeMarco Murray

Just like the Dow Jones, this stock report will have guys up and down from week to week just because you need to know.  Murray will return to earth this week, as it’s hard to see the Eagles giving up such huge numbers to the rookie who put huge numbers against the lowly Rams.  Critics are looking for something big from teammate Tony Romo, so chances are Murray is going to take a backseat to his quarterback this time around.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis

Toe injuries are one of the worst for running backs because they are going to feel that sharp pain on every step.  If there is one thing that the Steelers are going to be able to take away from the Patriots offense it is the running game, and Green-Ellis won’t be 100% anyways.

Larry Fitzgerald

It is kind of sad how a stand up guy such as Fitzgerald could garner all of the hype any other great receiver in the NFL receives, but when his team is 1-5, all of that goes out of the door.  Sure the scouting report on Larry is that he has the best hands in the league, but going against the Ravens after a loss is a tough task, so temper expectations.

DeSean Jackson

Foolish as it is to say that Jackson’s stock is down, because of the simple fact that there is a chance he could score at anytime whether it is on offense or special teams, the two catch games become very frustrating and can boil the blood of even the coolest fantasy owner.  While he does perform at crunch time and loves the spotlight (night game versus Dallas) it would be nice to see a little bit of consistency going forward.

Heath Miller

Naturally, people have gravitated towards Miller due to his recent production over the last few games, but when he doesn’t score can you live with a 4 point game out of him?

Jacksonville D/ST

A fluke is what we would like to call Monday night’s effort against the Baltimore Ravens, holding them to only 7 points.  The game couldn’t have been set up any better for the Jags at home on MNF and these types of outcomes just happen from time to time, but if you are looking for a repeat performance, with a chance that Houston will get Andre Johnson back, you have to be kidding yourself.

Nick Novak

If we are going to give you the stock report for kickers poised to do well this week, then we have to let you know whose stock is down as well.  Regardless if the Chargers are playing on the road at Kansas City, Phillip Rivers should be poised to have a break out game after his sluggish start to the season.  At least he better have a break out game for a few of our sakes, and if he does, that would mean more touchdowns and less field goals for Novak.

Did you miss me?

Jon has himself a busy schedule this week, so he texted me this morning and asked if I’d be up for reprising my role as the author of our weekly Start/Sit column here at MSF. I have to admit, as soon as I saw his text I was pretty pumped.

Doing these posts every week, week after week, can admittedly be a bit of a grind, as I learned over the last couple of years; so I was happy to let Jon take it over this year and focus my efforts in other areas. But I’ve missed the weekly challenge of poring over matchups and stats and trends to figure out which players to recommend to you as starts and sits.

So it’s good to be back in the saddle.

Anyway, It’s not like I’ve been totally absent. I still offer commentary on Jon’s posts, answer questions in the comment sections, and monitor the @FantasyMSF Twitter account. So I haven’t really given you a chance to miss me even if you wanted to. Now though, for the first time all year, I have to go on record with start and sit picks.

I’m ready. Let’s roll.

First up, let’s take a quick old school look back at how Jon did with his top-line start/sit picks last week:

• Start ‘em hits: Ben Roethlisberger, Dwayne Bowe, Fred Davis
• Start ‘em misses: Ryan Torain
• Sit ‘em hits: Vincent Jackson, Willis McGahee, Dustin Keller
• Sit ‘em misses: Cam Newton

Other suggestions he was slam-dunk correct on: sit Philip Rivers and Kevin Kolb; sit Larry Fitgerald and Brandon Lloyd

Other suggestions he was dead wrong on: start Matt Hasselbeck; sit Mark Sanchez; sit Jonathan Stewart; that Visanthe Shiancoe would be the “worst” tight end

Overall, a decent week for Jon. His top-line picks were solid, but some of his bolder “other” suggestions went awry. Jon has had a very strong track record this season though, so the bar is high for my relief appearance.

Here are my thoughts on who you should start and who you should sit in Week 8.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em
Lineup Advice and Projections

Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 8:

• Falcons
• Bears
• Packers
• Jets
• Raiders
• Buccaneers

Several startable QBs are out this week (Rodgers, Ryan, Freeman), as are some RBs that teams have come to count on (Turner, Forte, DMC), and some top flight WRs (R. White and the Packers crew, among many others). That means that not only do you need to bone up on your waiver wire knowledge, you need to be prepared to make the key start/sit decisions at the fringes of your roster that will be the difference between winning and losing.

Lucky for you, that’s why we’re here.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em Picks: Quarterbacks

Start ‘Em QB: Joe Flacco, Baltimore (v Arizona)

Know that I am currently writing this at 6:23 pm Central time on Monday evening. So the Monday night game between Baltimore and Jacksonville hasn’t even started. Thus, there is a chance that Flacco throws up one of his patented stinkers tonight against Jacksonville’s better-than-you-think pass defense (210 yards per game, 9 TDs heading into week 7).

Even if he does, I don’t care. You start him against Arizona and expect top 5 stats.

Here are some numbers:

• Cam Newton: 422 yards
• Rex Grossman: 291 yards
• Eli Manning: 321 yards
• Ben Roethlisberger: 361 yards

These are the yardage numbers that four of the Cardinals’ opponents have hung on their pass D this year. The two I left out were Minnesota and Seattle, because neither team had competent quarterbacking when they faced the Cardinals. Joe Flacco may not be a superstar, but he is certainly competent, and he has been a guy in the past who has put up huge numbers against inferior defenses. Consider his performance against St. Louis earlier this year, one of the few pass defenses that could be considered as bad as Arizona’s: 389 yards, 3 TDs for Flacco.

Flacco’s overall numbers are somewhat depressed by some tough matchups early in the season (Jets, Texans, Titans when they were actually trying), but don’t forget that this is a guy who has tossed at least 21 TD passes the last two seasons and who tends to get them in bunches when they come. This week will be one of those weeks when they come in bunches. Start Flacco.

Joe Flacco fantasy football Week 8 projection: 275 yards, 3 TDs

Other start ‘em QBs for Week Eight:

• Eli Manning isn’t sexy from a fantasy perspective, but you can win with him. And you can certainly win with him when he has tasty matchups like the one he has this week against Miami.
• You realize Cam Newton is a top 10 option at QB now, right? Okay, just checking. Make sure he’s in your lineup.

Sit ‘Em QB: Tim Tebow, Denver (v Detroit)

Yep, I’m going to throw some cold water on Tebowmania.

Despite finishing with respectable fantasy numbers in Week 7 (2 TDs, 200+ total yards), you really have to have watched the full game to put those numbers into context. Through 55 minutes, Tebow was hovering around negative fantasy points when you take into account his fumble, but then he led a furious five minute comeback that included most of his passing yards and both of his TDs.

A few things to keep in mind as you analyze Tebow’s chances against Detroit:

• Miami has given up 12 TD passes and picked off only two through six games, so the matchup was very favorable. Detroit, on the other hand, gives up barely 200 passing yards per game, has picked off opposing QBs ten times, and has allowed only 8 TD passes in 7 games. This matchup is not favorable.
• Miami only had eight sacks coming into Week 7 before amassing seven against on Tebow. Detroit has 17 sacks in 7 games thanks to a ferocious defensive line that makes indecisive quarterbacks pay. Tebow looked very indecisive in Week 7, which will not bode well at all for him against Suh, Avril, and Co.

I do like Tebow as a solid fantasy backup this season. He’ll be able to produce decent fantasy stats when the matchup is favorable. This one absolutely is not. In fact, it’s just about the worst matchup for Tebow at this stage in his career, especially with Willis McGahee being out and removing the Broncos’ only consistent rushing threat.

Stay far, far away…this week at least.

Tim Tebow fantasy football Week 8 projection: 125 yards passing, 45 yards rushing, 0 TDs, 2 INTs

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Eight:

• What the hell is wrong with Philip Rivers? I know Jon is as baffled as anyone. He thought Rivers would be the best fantasy QB this year, but Rivers has just 7 TDs through six games to go along with 9 INTs. He now has to face a Kansas City secondary that picked Oakland QBs off six times last week (I know it was Boller & Palmer, but still) and who Rivers hasn’t lit up historically (only 17 TDs in 12 career games). Plus the game is at Arrowhead, always a tough place to play. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I think if you have a reasonable alternative, it’s time make Rivers (and by extension Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson) prove that he’s the Rivers of old before you start him with confidence.
• Be wary of Ryan Fitzpatrick this week, despite what Cam Newton did against the Redskins last week. Washington has problems, but pass defense hasn’t been one of them. The ‘Skins, now desperate after another loss, have given up only five TD passes all season long. Fitzy doesn’t pose the running threat that Cam did, so Washington should have an easier job containing him.

Jon’s thoughts:

I really don’t have much to disagree with here…although I would say I am even higher on Eli Manning than Jerod is.  He should absolutely light up the Miami secondary.

One other guy I would definitely look at starting would be Matt Hasselbeck…he will be playing against the Colts.  All I really need to say here is, “62-7.”

One more under-the-radar guy I would look at is Andy Dalton.  The Seattle secondary is nearly as bad as Arizona’s, and at this point, it looks like the Red Rifle might just be good.  Plus, he has the Rookie of the Year Runner-Up (AJ Green) on his team.  You all know how much I love him…start the Red Rifle if your guy is on a bye.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em Picks: Running Backs

Start ‘Em RB: Chris Johnson, Tennessee (v Indianapolis)

Longtime readers know that when I do these start/sit posts, I try to never make my top-line picks obvious ones. Why would I tell you to start Adrian Peterson or Aaron Rodgers? That offers no one any value. So how crazy is it that in Week 8, former fantasy super-duperstar Chris Johnson warrants mention in the start ‘em category?

What’s even crazier is that some of you may think I’m crazy for trusting CJ268 (his actual rushing total this year) as my start ‘em RB!

But there is plenty of reason to expect the long-awaited CJ breakout this week, and it has everything to do with the matchup: Indianapolis. The Colts make every opposing running back look like Gale Sayers. Through seven games this year Indy is allowing 150.9 rushing yards per game and has allowed 9 touchdowns. If CJ can’t have a fantasy-relevant day against them then the Titans need to sue him for fraud immediately. I’m only half joking.

With that said, keep this in mind: just because Johnson torches Indy’s run D (which I expect), it doesn’t mean he’s “back”. It just means he has a pulse. On the bright side, there are some tasty matchups upcoming on the schedule (Carolina, Tampa Bay, Indy again, Buffalo, all in the bottom third in the league in run D), so feel free to enjoy a bit of optimism if the old CJ returns on Sunday.

Chris Johnson fantasy football Week 8 projection: 140 yards rushing, 2 TDs, 5 receptions, 45 yards

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 8:

• Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles are both definite starts this week, and in deeper leagues or on teams especially decimated by injury or bye weeks Pierre Thomas has some value as well. It all comes down to the matchup. New Orleans faces St. Louis in Week 8, the team with by far the worst run defense in the NFL. Last week the Saints faced the team with the second-worst run D in the NFL, Indiacrapolis, and all three of these guys put up solid fantasy numbers. Sure, it’d be great if there was one guy racking up all the fantasy goodness that Sean Payton and Drew Brees create, but come 6-team bye weeks like this one, just be thankful that the Saints will give opportunities to three running backs against a team like the Rams. 
• I can’t believe I’m doing this, but Ryan Torain is probably a top 20 back in Week 8. Despite two straight awful outings after his supposed breakout a few weeks back, Torain has a) a good matchup (Buffalo, 30th against the run) and b) the starting role with Tim Hightower injured and Roy Helu apparently not yet in good enough graces with Mike Shanahan to warrant the starting nod. We’ve seen Torain produce before in Shanahan’s system when given the chance, so you can start him with some measure of confidence…but don’t come blaming me if he ends up getting five carries and doing nothing. You and I both know we’re playing with fire talking about starting a Shanny RB, but the circumstances do seem to make the risk worth the potential reward in this case.
• I probably don’t need to tell you to start DeMarco Murray after his performance last week, but just in case you were worried that he only succeeded because of the matchup, his matchup is pretty good in Week 8 too. Philly gives up 123.8 rushing yards and a TD per game. With Felix Jones expected to still be out, Murray should get the lion’s share of the work. But take note: if you can, now isn’t a bad time to try to sell high on Murray’s inflated value.

Sit ‘Em RB: Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty, Cleveland (at San Francisco)

I don’t care who is healthy, who starts, or even if Cleveland signs Jim Brown for the week to come play. San Francisco has the best front 7 in football right now. Yes, I’m serious…watch them. Remember how we all used to look at Pittsburgh, and still do with Baltimore, and consider sitting even our studs against them? If you’re not thinking of San Fran in that light now, you’re mistaken. Just trust me. I’ve watched every minute of every one of their games this year. They are legit.

Plus, even when healthy Hillis has been far from a stud this year. Not only is he not nearly as effective this year as he was for much of last year, the Browns offense has regressed, leading to very few scoring opportunities for the backs. The ceiling for Cleveland’s RBs right now is quite likely what Montario Hardesty put up in Week 7: 122 total yards on 35 touches with no TDs. And that was against Seattle, a decent but not great run D. The 49ers are giving up just 74.7 rushing yards per game and have not allowed a running TD all season. Yikes.

Unless Cleveland signs the young Jim Brown to play on Sunday, sit whoever is carrying the ball for them. And against this 49ers run D, rested after the bye, even a young Jim Brown might have trouble finding holes.

Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty combined fantasy football projection for Week 8: 65 rushing yards, 40 receiving yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 8:

• Willis McGahee is out, which will lead some people to get excited about Knowshon Moreno, as will the matchup against Detroit’s less than stellar run D. I disagree. Granted, he’s not a terrible option if your lineup is decimated, but I’m waiting until he does something positive to trust him with a starting slot. Detroit will be able to stack the box against Tebow, which will make the going tough for Knowshon.
• That’s it. I’m off the DeAngelo Williams train. I’ve given him plenty of chances, and he always seems to repay me with flaming piles of turd like his 10-carry, 35-yard performance in Week 7, which was made even more frustrating by the fact that Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart ran wild against the Redskins. Make this guy have two straight solid weeks before you trust him. (And for the record, I’m not all that high on Jonathan Stewart either this week. Minnesota is good against the run.)
• Don’t get too excited about Bernard Scott, who will be filling in for the suspended Cedric Benson this week. Not only is Seattle decent against the run (105 yards per game, 5 TDs allowed) but Brian Leonard is there to siphon carries. Plus, offensive coordinator Jay Gruden clearly has confidence in Andy Dalton, AJ Green, et al, and he won’t hesitate to keep airing it out.

Jon’s thoughts:

I LOVE LOVE LOVE Ryan Torain this week.  Start him with confidence!

Also, let me pass along a quick story for all of you Knowshon Moreno lovers (I am one by the way…but this may make you wary of him as an NFL back).  Allegedly, the kid had never even played football until one day, his high school coach saw him playing tag with a bunch of kids and nobody could touch him.  He thought to himself, “Wow…that kid would make a great running back.”  The legend was born.  Anyway, Know (I have it on very good authority that this is what all of his friends call him) began torching people in high school, and even excelled in college because of his shear athletic ability.  However, he doesn’t really LOVE football like a lot of these guys, and he has never been a guy that people would describe as a “workout warrior.”  Now that he’s in the NFL, he can’t beat people just based off of his talent anymore.  Really, he’s a lot like Julio Jones.  Add all of this to the fact that the Broncos aren’t very good, and a 30-year-old with a blown apart knee has been BETTER than him all season…and I would stay away from Knowshon…maybe forever.

As for the Panthers’ running backs, I’m actually much higher on Jonathan Stewart (and not just because I own him in my league).  Minnesota is great against the run, so Williams will be neutralized.  However, Cam Newton LOVES throwing to Stewart out of the flat, and with Minnesota’s pass rush, I expect Newton to make a lot of quick, short throws to his tight ends and Stewart.  Stewart may not have a lot of yards on the ground, but I could see him approaching triple digits through the air.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em Picks: Wide Receivers

Start ‘Em WR: Brandon Lloyd, St. Louis (v New Orleans)

Regardless of whether Sam Bradford plays or not, I like Lloyd this week. In his first start with his new team last week, he compiled 6 receptions for 74 yards with A.J. Feeley at QB. That was in a blowout against Dallas. Clearly the potential for a blowout is there this week with the awful Rams going up against the juggernaut that just obliterated Indy to the tune of 62 points.

It is safe to assume that St. Louis will be passing a lot to try to keep with Brees and Co, and if they are, either St. Louis QB will surely continue to target their new toy. Plus, the Saints have given up 12 TD passes in 7 games, so they can be had through the air.

Lloyd proved last year that he’s a top flight wide receiver in Josh McDaniels’ system. He’s back with McD now, and I think he’s a possible top 10 WR from here on out, especially when you consider that St. Louis’ schedule eases up in the second half.

Brandon Lloyd fantasy football Week 8 projection: 7 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Eight:

• After two very subpar weeks, Antonio Brown took advantage of a favorable matchup against Arizona to bust out with 7 catches and 102 yards. He has another favorable matchup against New England in Week 8. Seeing as how Bill Belichick likes to take out the other team’s #1 offensive option, the focus of the Patriots D will likely be Mike Wallace. That should provide opportunities for Brown to make a few big plays, which he’s proven he can make.
• Michael Crabtree is quickly becoming Alex Smith’s go-to guy. He had his best game of the season in Week 6 when he snared 9 passes for 77 yards. With Braylon Edwards expected to return and stretch the defense, Crabtree should have even more room to do his Cris Carter impression. Cleveland’s pass defense stats are pretty solid from a yardage perspective, but they have given up 8 passing TDs in 6 games. I have a suspicion Crabtree makes his first venture into the end zone in Week 8.
• I haven’t been very complimentary of Steve Breaston over the past few weeks, but he is starting to win me over with his consistency. Breaston has at least 50 yards in four straight games and scored two TDs against Indy in Game 5. He faces a San Diego defense in Week 8 that allowed three TD passes to the Jets’ #2 receiver, Plaxico Burress. Though Dwayne Bowe will always be the top red zone option for Matt Cassel, the QB is clearly gaining trust in Breaston, so it’s time I do too. (Take note: just because Breaston is listed doesn’t mean I consider him a slam dunk start, but as a guy that may be on your waiver wire he offers some value for those desperate with six teams on bye.)

Sit ‘Em WR: Deion Branch, New England (at Pittsburgh)

I had a really, really hard time coming up with a sit ‘em WR for this week. With six teams on bye, it’s hard to say that any top 40 WR is a sit, especially in leagues where three wide receivers start. But I didn’t want to tell you to sit someone obvious or from a crappy offense, so I’m going to step out on a limb with Branch.

I’ll give you my reasons for suggesting Branch as a sit candidate so you can see if you agree with my thinking or not:

• Pittsburgh is #1 in the NFL against the pass this year, giving up just 171.9 yards per game and only 8 TDs in 7 games.
• Branch is the fourth option in the New England passing attack behind Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and Rob Gronkowski.
• Despite his ballyhooed rapport with Tom Brady, Branch has one game with zero receptions this year, another with one reception, and another with three catches. Yes, he’s had at least 69 yards receiving in four of his six games, and he’s caught two TDs, but there is a lot of inconsistency here.
• In his career, Branch averages just over 5 catches and 61.5 yards per game and against Pittsburgh, which is decent, but he’s only hit paydirt once.

I would not be shocked at all if Branch ends up having a good or even great game on Sunday. Such is the nature of New England’s offense. But I think there are plenty of reasons to think this will be another of Branch’s off weeks, so if you’re blessed with four or five good options this week despite all the byes, consider those options strongly.

Deion Branch fantasy football Week 8 projection: 4 receptions, 45 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week Eight:

• Tim Tebow is my sit ‘em QB, so clearly I don’t have much confidence in the Denver passing game. Thus, stick Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas on your benches. If you have to play one of them, Thomas is the guy I’d want based on what I saw in Week 7. 
• Reggie Wayne is really struggling. He hasn’t eclipsed 77 yards or scored a touchdown since Week 1. Tennessee may or may not be a good matchup, it just depends on which Titans team shows up, but Pierre Garcon remains the Colts WR to start right now anyway, and I’m waiting until Wayne can string together a few solid weeks in a row before thinking of him as a must-start WR again.
• Sidney Rice had a stellar 8-catch, 109-yard performance in Week 3, but his numbers have gotten steadily worse in every week since. Seeing as how he is no longer playing with his Viking buddy Tarvaris Jackson, and how not every pass D is as friendly to opposing WRs as Arizona’s is, it’s not a surprise. As long as Charlie Whitehurst is playing QB and the opponent is halfway competent against the pass, sit all Seahawks WRs unless you’re desperate.

Jon’s thoughts:

How are you not starting Steve Smith?  After watching Greg Jennings run all over the field against the Vikings, I am supremely confident that Steve Smith (a guy who plays very similarly to Greg Jennings, but is even more explosive) will have a MASSIVE day.  Steve Smith has been carrying terrible quarterbacks for…well…for forever, and now that he has someone that is better than competent, he is better than ever.  Most people probably don’t realize this, but Smith is the #4 WR in fantasy this year…yet he STILL ISN’T OWNED IN EVERY LEAGUE IN YAHOO!!!  This is unacceptable.  Start Smith with confidence this week…he could very well have the best week of anyone not named Megatron.

Jerod’s rebuttal thoughts:

Excuse me, but where did I say I’m not starting Steve Smith? Of course you start Steve Smith. I don’t want to patronize our readers, so I assume they can make obvious decisions like that. Although your note about him not being owned in all Yahoo leagues is concerning and ridiculous, so I’m glad you pointed Smith’s greatness out for the few who are unaware. But believe me, Smith is starting on any team I have.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em Picks: Tight Ends

Start ‘Em TE: Jake Ballard, New York Giants (v Miami)

Do you realize that Jake Ballard has caught 11 balls for nearly 200 yards and two touchdowns over the Giants’ last three games? It’s true. Many were lamenting the fact that Kevin Boss left for Oakland, and the effect it would have on Eli Manning’s stats, but Manning seems to have found a nice rapport with the Boss-like Ballard.

Fortuitously, Ballard’s Week 8 matchup is solid. Miami is one of the worst defenses in the league in terms of points given up to opposing tight ends. Add it all up, and Ballard is an outstanding start candidate this week.

Jake Ballard fantasy football Week 8 projection: 4 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week Eight:

• The Browns are also very bad at containing opposing tight ends. That means Vernon Davis needs to be playing on all rosters who have him. 
• The Cowboys are another teams that has given up a decent amount of fantasy points to opposing tight ends this year. With Brent Celek coming off of his first good game of the year (4 catches, TD) he is a sneaky start if you’re desperate.
• By now, you shouldn’t need me to tell you to get Fred Davis in your lineups…do you? If so, get him in your lineups.

Sit ‘Em TE: Dallas Clark, Indianapolis (at Tennessee)

Clark did not record a catch on Sunday night after having his first Clark-like game of the season in Week 6 (6 catches, 53 yards). Tennessee is a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of holding down opposing tight ends, but this selection is more based on lack of faith in the Colts offense than any confidence in the Jekyll and Hide Titans.

Clark has only scored two TDs this year and has only one game with more than four catches or 46 yards. The safer bet this season has been to take the under on those numbers, which is just about the floor for being considered a solid start option in a standard fantasy league. Let someone else pretend Dallas Clark is still the Clark of old. Don’t you make that mistake.

Dallas Clark fantasy football Week 8 projection: 3 catches 35 yards, 0 TD

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week Eight:

• Heath Miller‘s production has been steadily increasing, but I’m a bit worried about him in Week 8. New England is pretty good against opposing tight ends, and Miller has to score TDs to have value, as his yardage totals rarely will get you excited.
• Scott Chandler has four TDs this season, which looks really good when you’re sorting your waiver wire in desperate need of a fill-in. Don’t be fooled. Chandler hasn’t scored since Week 3 and and he has a grand total of 1 yard receiving over the last two games.

Jon’s thoughts:

It’s very hard to find tight ends who are going to have bad games from week to week, however I would consider sitting Owen Daniels as well.  Jacksonville’s defense has been very good (even though the rest of their team is awful), and even though Houston has been very good this year, Schaub hasn’t necessarily been lighting anybody up through the air.  He’s been good, but not great every week, and he’s only thrown 12 touchdown passes.  With all of that said, there may not be a better option than Owen Daniels…but I think he will have a down week on Sunday.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em Picks: Defense/Special Teams

Start ‘Em D/ST: Detroit Lions (at Denver)

If you want a full explanation for why I’m recommending Detroit’s D this week, just scroll up and read what I wrote about Tim Tebow. I like him, I’m rooting for him, but this is just a great matchup for Detroit’s defense in terms of what they do well.

You beat Detroit on the ground, and the Broncos will struggle to run with McGahee out. That means Tebow will have to try to win the game through the air and, well, Ndamukong Suh and Co could have a lot of fun.

Detroit Lions D/ST fantasy football Week 8 projection: 13 or fewer points, 5+ sacks, 1 turnover

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week Eight:

• Houston’s defense continues to surprise me with how well it’s playing under new coordinator Wade Philliips. Jacksonville and rookie QB Blaine Gabbert, who will be coming off of a Monday night game, should be a tasty matchup.
• Cincinnati’s D will be a popular choice this week going up against Seattle, and it’s a good choice. Just be wary of those tricky Seahawks at home. They will often surprise teams that are traveling over a couple of time zones to play them in their very loud stadium. That said, Charlie Whitehurst is Charlie Whitehurst.

Sit ‘Em D/ST: Pittsburgh Steelers (v New England)

The Steelers’ defense is starting to play better as of late, but they are far from the dominating unit we’re used to. Wheras a Pittsburgh-New England game might once have been a battle of top defenses, it is now a meeting of two of the top passing attacks in football.

Between Tom Brady, Big Ben, Mike Wallace, Wes Welker, et al, this should be a fun game to watch…so long as you’re not starting either defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST fantasy football Week 8 projection: 27 or more points, 2 sacks, 1 turnover

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week Eight:

• Don’t get too excited about Kansas City’s defense after what they did to Oakland. Kyle Boller and Carson Palmer were predictably awful and the Chiefs took advantage, but I expect more out of Philip Rivers and a Chargers team smarting after a tough, embarrassing loss to the Jets. It may not be enough to make Rivers a sure-fire start (as I mentioned above), but I do think the balance of the Chargers’ offense should allow them to put up points against KC.
• Minnesota’s defense is still pretty good against the run, but they are getting torched through the air. And after what Cam Newton was able to do against a very good Washington defense last week, the whole “play any D going against a rookie QB” adage does not work when he’s involved. In fact, it’s becoming start to avoid defenses that are going up against the amazing Cam.

Jon’s thoughts:

I would start the NY Giants this week.  While it’s true that they are not the Giants’ defense of old, they have an unbelievably favorable matchup against the Dolphins…who barely scored 15 points against Denver last week.

Don’t be depressed by their lack of production so far…they could have a 3 or 4 turnover week in Week 8.

**********

There they are. My Week 8 start/sit picks are in the books and on the record. That was fun! My thanks to Jon for ceding his start/sit saddle this week and giving me the opportunity to give it another go.

Now hopefully all of these picks work out for everyone who visits this week.

As usual, we’ll be answering your questions all week. So drop them below, and then stay tuned to the site for the rest of the week as we post new fantasy content every day.

Like I said at the beginning of the season, gone are the days of fantasy rule by the RBs.  Of those 18 players, only 5 are RBs…simply a staggering thought to anyone living in 2006 or before.

Already frustrated with your NFL fantasy team or just up for something new? Check out Daily Joust, where you can enter weekly NFL and fantasy college football tournaments and compete for real cash prizes. (Keep your eyes peeled for our next freeroll tournament with Daily Joust…)

With the rise in scoring, it is getting increasingly easy to predict breakout performances for players…as well as increasingly difficult to predict who will have a bad day.  For instance, this week, I was 17 for 24 on my predictions for guys that I thought would be successful.  On the other hand, I was only 11 for 20 on guys I thought you should sit.  It’s just so difficult to predict who will play poorly when everyone is putting up record numbers.

Nevertheless, Jerod and I stand here undeterred in our predictions (as did Andy Bottoms in his Waiver Wire Pickups column).  Let’s quickly recap those picks from last week before moving on to Week Six.

Week Five Recap

• Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Best Player/Start Em/Other Guys I Liked - (Hits:  Top 12 for QBs/TEs and Top 30 for RBs/WRs)
• Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Worst Player/Sit Em/Other Guys I Didn’t Like - (Hits:  13th or worse for QBs/TEs and 31st or worse for RBs/WRs)
• Quick Note:  The following players got injured and have been removed from the grading scale for fairness: Joseph Addai, Mike Tolbert, and Rashard Mendenhall.

Overall: 29 for 44 (66%)

Best Player Predictions: 4 for 4

• Hits: Michael Vick, Maurice Jones-Drew, Calvin Johnson, and Jermaine Gresham.

Start Em Predictions: 4 for 4

• Hits: Philip Rivers, Deion Branch, Pierre Garcon, and Brandon Pettigrew.
• Misses: None

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 10 for 16

• Hits: Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Curtis Painter, Darren Sproles, Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks, AJ Green, Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham, and Owen Daniels.
• Misses: Mark Sanchez, LeGarrette Blount, LaDainian Tomlinson, Devery Henderson, Dallas Clark, and Scott Chandler.

Worst Player Predictions: 1 for 3

• Hits: David Nelson
• Misses: Cam Newton and Heath Miller.

Sit Em Predictions: 1 for 3

• Hits: Tom Brady
• Misses: Michael Turner and Vernon Davis.

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 9 for 14

• Hits: Donovan McNabb, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, James Starks, Matt Forte, Wes Welker (Special exception…I said it would be a bad game FOR HIM and it was), Jacoby Jones, Jeff King, and Jeremy Shockey.
• Misses: Ben Roethlisberger, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Shonn Greene, Victor Cruz, Steve Smith.

Onto this week.

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em Sit Em

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 6:

• Denver
• Kansas City
• Seattle
• Tennessee
• Arizona
• San Diego

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Quarterbacks 

Projected Best Performer – Tom Brady

He’s the best fantasy QB there is right now…and he’s playing against Dallas.  The Pats might score 60 points.

Tom Brady Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 420 passing yards, 4 TDs

Start Em – Tony Romo

Last week, I predicted that Mark Sanchez would have a big day against New England’s banged up secondary that was already below average.  Well, my reasoning was right, but I forgot one thing – that Mark Sanchez is awful.  Don’t worry, the oft-maligned Tony Romo should put up great numbers this week, especially considering both Miles Austin and Dez Bryant should be fully healed.

Tony Romo Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 380 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other Start ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Six:

• Ben Roethlisberger – We finally saw the Big Ben I thought we would see all season last week.  He should have another big game against Jacksonville.
• Josh Freeman – Bounceback game against the Saints at home.
• Curtis Painter – I’m all in on Curtis Painter…and he’s facing another decent matchup against Cincinnati.
• Michael Vick – If he doesn’t play well this week…well…um…yeah.

Projected Worst Performer – Miami’s QB

Let me just put it this way: in the pre-season, Dolphins’ fans were chanting the name of a QB in Denver who threw for 30 yards in the first half this week before being benched in favor of Tim Tebow.  Don’t expect much from Miami QBs for the rest of the year…especially against the Jets.

Dolphins’ QBs’ Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 180 Passing Yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs

Sit Em – Ryan Fitzpatrick

I think this will be a weird game for the Bills.  I think it’s going to be a little bit of a trap game (not unlike Cincinnati a few weeks ago), and the Giants will be looking to respond from their poor performance against Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst.  Fitzpatrick won’t play AWFUL…but there should be plenty of better options in Week 6.

Ryan Fitzpatrick Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 240 yards, 1 TDs, 1 INT

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Six:

• Matt Schaub – Not against a Ravens’ team coming off of a bye.
• Alex Smith – I think the Lions and 49ers will face off in a defensive struggle.  Plus, he’s been surprisingly very good against the blitz this year, but the Lions don’t have to blitz to bring pressure.
• Sam Bradford – Sophomore slump…mixed with the Packers’ defense.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I agree on Romo. The Cowboys are coming off of their bye, have their receivers healthy, and I’m sure are itching to put the Detroit debacle behind them. Plus they get the Patriots a week after they played a major rival. I actually think the Cowboys are a sneaky upset pick in this game, and for that to happen Good Romo must be on display.

Also, I don’t think Jon should get any credit for telling you that whoever plays QB for Miami (Matt Moore, at least to start) will be awful.

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Running Backs 

Projected Best Performer – Ray Rice

He’s one of the best in the business…and he’s coming off a bye, facing an average run defense missing their best linemen.  Rice could run wild against the Texans.

Ray Rice Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 150 Rushing Yards, 1 TD; 60 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Start Em – Peyton Hillis

As you can see, I like guys that are coming off a bye this week, but Hillis should be fully healthy, and facing an Oakland team that could very well be emotionally and physically spent after the draining week that they just completed.  Look for the Big White Avalanche to run a lot of people over this week.

Peyton Hillis Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 140 yards, 2 TDs

Other Start ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Six:

• Michael Turner – Maybe one of these weeks, Atlanta will get back to their roots and actually start running the ball.  Nice matchup against Carolina.
• DeAngelo Williams – I think he has finally shaken off the offseason rust, and should have a nice game against a banged up Atlanta line.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis – He’s looked great in back to back weeks, and the Pats are trying to prove that they have some sort of running game.  Nice matchup against Dallas as well.
• Adrian Peterson – Always…I know…but should have a nice game against Chicago.

Projected Worst Performer – Jahvid Best

I don’t know if he’s not that good*, or if Detroit just doesn’t feel like running the ball when they can throw it up to the cheat-code every single play.  Either way, the San Francisco defense is great, and Best won’t be a big factor unless he can break free on a few screens.

*As I’m writing this, Best runs for an 88 yard TD against Chicago proving that once again, I’m an idiot.  My counter?  Take that one run out and what has he done tonight?!? And the matchup still stinks.

Jahvid Best Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 30 Rushing Yards, 30 Receiving Yards

Sit Em – Arian Foster

I know he’s really good, but the Ravens are allowing less than 75 yards a game on the ground AND are coming off a bye.  A lot of you might have a gut feeling that says to play Foster, and that’s fine.  But my gut is telling me that he will be bottled up early and often this week.

Arian Foster Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 60 total yards

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Six:

• Tim Hightower – He’s going to start getting fewer and fewer touches as the year goes on.
• Jonathan Stewart – Look for his production to diminish as his teammate’s goes up.
• Any Saints’ RB not named Darren Sproles – Just say no to them.  They hardly run the ball, and Sproles is the only guy that Brees really trusts on a consistent basis.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I cannot recommend that anyone sit in Arian Foster. In fact, I’ll say this: whoever is starting at RB for Houston is a must-start player until the Texans RBs put up two straight dud weeks. Even if the Ravens bottle up Foster between the tackles, which is in fact likely, he is a terrific receiver as he showed against Oakland.

And I would not start Peyton Hillis as anything other than a flex. Even at flex I’d be nervous. Hillis has been losing carries to Montario Hardesty, and the hard-line stance he is taking about his contract (which he needs to do for his own sake) is not endearing him to anyone on the new coaching staff I wouldn’t imagine. Look for Hardesty to continue siphoning carries, which kills Hillis’ value.

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Wide Receivers 

Projected Best Performer – Megatron

Just pencil him in every week.

Calvin Johnson Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 120 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Dez Bryant

I think that Bryant and Austin will both have big days against the New England secondary, but Bryant is starting to become Romo’s go to guy in the red zone.  He’s big, athletic, and has great hands.  He should take advantage of mismatches all game.

Dez Bryant Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 95 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Other Start ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Six:

• Mike Wallace – We finally saw the Big Ben I thought we would see all season last week.  Wallace will be benefactor #1.
• Wes Welker – Free points.
• Percy Harvin – He’s quietly having a very solid year for Minnesota despite all of the problems.  I bet you didn’t realize that he’s ranked in the Top 25 of all WRs, thanks in large part to his return skills.  He should get free often against a mediocre Chicago secondary.
• Jeremy Maclin – He’s been quiet for a few weeks, and I think he’s due for a big game against the Redskins.

Projected Worst Performer – Mike Thomas

Bad day for Jacksonville…just like every other day for their fans.

Mike Thomas Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 3 catches for 28 yards

Sit Em – Stevie Johnson

Like I said earlier, I think the Bills will falter a little bit this week, and Stevie J will have a tough game, along with the rest of their offense that isn’t named Fred Jackson

Stevie Johnson Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 5 catches for 55 yards.

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Six:

• Julio Jones – He’s Roy Williams 2.0.  Or maybe Michael Crabtree 2.0.  Either way, it’s not good.
• Ted Ginn Jr. – Ginn is also having a better year than people realize, as he’s ranked the 30th overall WR.  However, I think it will be a defensive struggle against Detroit.  Bad day for Alex Smith = bad day for Ginn.
• Randall Cobb – Not many return yards for him this week against a team coming off a bye…he’s only a play in VERY deep leagues…like, I’m talking 20 team leagues.

Jerod’s thoughts:
First off, from here on out let’s just call the “Projected Best Performer” at WR the “Calvin Johnson Award”. Then you can stop taking the easy answer and be forced to pick who you think will be the 2nd best performer at WR.

As for Percy Harvin, yes he is very quietly having that solid year you alluded to, as in one reception for 11 yards last week. He only has 18 catches in five games. He’s not a must start. He’s a flex at best.

I think you are way too hard on Julio Jones. Yes he struggled in Week 5, but he’d had 100+ yards each of the previous two weeks. He’s already better than Roy Williams ever was, and Julio Jones through five weeks a handful of preseason games has probably already participated in more practices than Michael Crabtree has in his career.

Also, never mention Ted Ginn Jr. in a Start/Sit column again. It hurts my stomach to laugh that hard.

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Tight Ends 

Projected Best Performer – Aaron Hernandez

He’s back, and he would have had a MONSTER game last week if he could have completely shaken off the rust.  He’s the number one TE in the game in my opinion, and he should have a great game against Dallas

Aaron Hernandez Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 150 receiving yards, 1 TD

Start Em – Benjamin Watson

The Raiders gave up a ton of points to BOTH of Houston’s Tight Ends last week.  Watson is a good player, and should have a solid game as the Browns look to rebound after their bye.

Benjamin Watson Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 8 catches for 120 yards, 1 TD

Other Guys I Like:

• Jimmy Graham – He’s unbelievable.
• Dallas Clark – He has to break out eventually, right?
• Jason Witten – Big game for all of Dallas’ receivers against New England

Projected Worst Performer – Scott Chandler

I’ve missed on him every single week.  All of you should probably trade for him now.

Scott Chandler Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 3 catches for 15 yards

Sit Em – Jermichael Finley

I don’t love this pick at all…but I have to pick a guy in the top 12 to have a bad day and he’s my choice.  Rodgers has been spreading the ball out a lot, and it’s possible that Finley gets overlooked for a week or two.  It’s also possible that he catches three TDs like he did against Chicago a few weeks back…but like I said, of all the top TEs, I think he’s the riskiest play at this point.

Jermichael Finley Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 2 catches for 25 yards

Jerod’s thoughts:

Jon, you need to make up your mind. I distinctly remember you saying that Rob Gronkowski was the top tight end in the game before. Now you’re picking his teammate who is still getting back into the groove off of his injury? And what about Jimmy Graham? Yes, is absolutely unbelievable! He has three straight 100 yards, has the love and trust of one of the NFL’s most accurate passers, and has no other tight ends to compete for targets. Jimmy Graham is #1!

As for Finley, I’d never sit him (unless I had Graham, Gronk, Hernandez, or Witten), but the fact that he dropped a few passes Sunday night won’t help him out any either. He’s still a stud though, so I just want people to make sure they have a great alternate option if they are going to sit him.

And now, back by popular demand…

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Defense/Special Teams

[Editor's note: These D/ST picks are all done by Jerod.]

Start Em Defense: New York Jets

They are playing the Miami Dolphins, are getting desperate for a win, and their pride has been challenged. What else really needs to be said?

Other Start ‘Em D/ST Picks for Week Six:

• Pittsburgh Steelers – they got back on track last week and get to face Blaine Gabbert and the one dimensional Jags this week. Gotta love it.
• Green Bay Packers – their secondary has been suspect this year, but they get to face a St. Louis team in Week Six that, while coming off a bye, hasn’t been able to get into any rhythm at all. Also, Clay Matthews will feast on Sam Bradford unless St. Louis’ O-Line really improves.
• San Francisco 49ers – this defense is for real folks; not only do they stop the run, but the secondary is opportunistic. Yes the Detroit offense is explosive, but the 49ers are going to give them all they can handle.

Sit Em Defense: Washington Redskins

The ‘Skins D has been outstanding this year, and they are coming off a bye, and they are facing a reeling 1-4 team that cannot seem to stop turning the ball over. So why am I telling you to sit them? Call it a hunch. Andy Reid is still one of the best offensive coaches on the planet, and the Eagles have explosive talent all over the field. Remember, they may be losing but they’re scoring plenty of points while they do it. Plus, need I remind you what Michael Vick did to Washington last year? The Eagles are 1-4 and really have their backs up against the wall. I expect them to play their best football this week, and that makes them very, very dangerous.

Other Sit ‘EM D/ST Picks for Week Six:

• New York Giants – don’t let their reputation fool you, this is not a top defense anymore, and we know how explosive Buffalo can be.
• Chicago Bears – they are coming off a disappointing, demoralizing Monday night loss and face their nemesis Adrian Peterson, who is in beast mode right now.
• Dallas and New England – this game will be a shootout; stay away from both.

**********

Okay everyone, there is your Start Em, Sit Em for Week 6. The comment section awaits your questions. Let’s all get some Ws this week.

We don’t like them, but the players do need their rest.  With the rest periods starting now, there are some crucial decisions that need to be made regarding your roster.

Who is going to fill in for Ray Rice?  Issac Redman can’t carry the load for an injured Mendenhall…can he?  And so many more.

Now is the time that we want to highlight players who might be on your bench or floating around on waivers waiting to be picked up in hopes that he can provide that stopgap service.  Everyone knows that Jason Witten is good for your health but how about Brandon Pettigrew?

There are questions galore to be answered in the Week 5 stock report.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Stock Report: Stocks Up

Matt Hasselbeck

Going up against a Steelers defense is something that no quarterback wants to deal with.  Taking out Chris Johnson is a natural part of the game plan but what about the passing game?  Most people project the game to be close and even if it is, the Titans will have to throw the ball to keep it that way; but if it isn’t and Pittsburgh gets out to a big home lead, the ball could be thrown all over the place.

Mark Sanchez

Now before you hang, draw, and quarter this installment of the fantasy stock report, just give it a chance.  I did have Mark’s stock down last week and that horrid -4 point performance came along, but for some reason it is up this time.  The reason is that the New England defense is really bad right now in terms of fantasy, scoring a total of FOUR points for the entire year thus far.  The Jets need a spark on offense and if it is to come from anybody, it has to be Sanchez.

Michael Bush

Keep a few things in consideration.  There are a lot of teams that are on bye weeks that have major fantasy RBs and Bush almost always gets touches down around the goal-line.  Add to that the fact that the Raiders will be trying to use the running game to slow down that Houston offense, nd he could prove to be fairly valuable.

Isaac Redman-*

That is an asterisk for the simple fact that teammate Rashard Mendenhall may or may not play this week.  If Redman is the starter, he does possess the skills to help the Steelers offense remain respectable.

Jonathan Stewart

Carries between Stewart and Williams have been split pretty evenly this year, but the Panthers seem to involve Stewart in the passing game a little more.  It is very possible that the Saints will jump out to a 14-0 lead within the first 10 minutes of the game leaving the projection to pan out.

Eric Decker

If you haven’t been drinking the Kool-Aid, then the time to do so would be now.  Things are changing in Denver and fast.  Anybody who has a hot-streak going for them will be seeing some playing time.  Averaging five catches per game, Decker has been receiving a lot of attention from quarterback Kyle Orton which is proving to be well deserved.

Johnny Knox

Until the Bears give Jay Cutler some time to throw the ball, this passing game is going to be inconsistent at best.  Having said that, if there is one receiver that Chicago can, well actually has to rely on as a downfield threat, that would be Johnny Knox because the play of the other wide-outs on the roster is very weak.

Brandon Pettigrew

As the Detroit Lions attempt to prove that they have a balanced offense when teams decide to send the cavalry at Calvin Johnson in the red-zone, Pettigrew has already proven he can be reliable in the passing game, which should help him finally score a touchdown.

Bengals D/ST

It is very surprising as to why this defense doesn’t receive more attention than it already does.  This unit doesn’t intercept passes very often, but it will recover a couple fumbles and keep the opposing team from scoring a lot of points.  Another case for the underrated defense is the fact that they have rookie Blaine Gabbert on the schedule.  If you have the Ravens defense, these guys could serve as a decent one week option.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Stock Report: Stocks Down

Ryan Fitzpatrick

It’s no secret that the Eagles have been struggling as a team, but the pass defense can’t take all the blame when the unit doesn’t do a good job stopping the run.  As for Fitzpatrick, those first three games came against some poor defenses.  Once he went up a decent Bengals D, the numbers dropped a little.  Now the stock isn’t exactly in the dumps but a number in the neighborhood of 10-12 should be expected.

Josh Freeman

Freeman tends to stay solid regardless of the situation on the field, but this San Francisco defense is good, especially against teams that lack playmakers.  The Bucs are one of those teams.  Not that any respect should be taken away from Freeman but in the fantasy world, where individual stats matter, teammates are important as well.

Marshawn Lynch

Now who is guilty of drafting Lynch just because of the touchdown run against the Saints last year?  Well, he actually does have some value because he is the only guy in the Seattle backfield that has the ability to start week in and week out.  The problem is the two straight road games in the Eastern Time zone that west coast teams usually have a problem with.  Besides, the Seahawks have trouble moving the ball as a whole.  So if they don’t score, he won’t.

New York Jets RB’s

If the Jets want to have a remote chance at slowing down the Pats’ aerial assault, then the ground game is going to have to be clicking on all cylinders.  That’s the problem; it hasn’t all year.  Only averaging a dismal 71 yards a game, things look grim; and if Nick Mangold doesn’t play, the situation could be worse.

Denarius Moore

As a receiver Moore is most likely the best on the team, but after Heyward-Bey’s 115 yard game I can only think of one thing.  Al Davis to Jason Campbell, “throw him the damn ball!”  One must hope the play calling will do what is best for the team and throw to who can get open and actually CATCH the ball.

Marques Colston

Don’t take this an ax to his fantasy value, but expecting a lot of points this week could be wishful thinking.  The Saints have more than enough talent on the roster to work Colston in slowly and besides, even on the road the Panthers don’t look like a daunting matchup.

Falcons D/ST

This is the team that put a fair amount of eggs into the basket of one Ray Edwards to help boost a pass rush that was more than weak last year.  Did they forget that Edwards was a great compliment to Jared Allen, not literally Jared Allen?  Aside from that, Aaron Rodgers is coming to town and we all remember what he was able to do in the dome during the playoffs.

Jets D/ST

All the grumbling about whether or not the Jets are for real could be answered this week.  All of the defensive touchdowns scored by the Ravens can’t be blamed on the defense but the stat-line still reads, 64 points over the last two games.  Rex thinks he can slow down Tom Brady but that isn’t likely in New England.  Expect an old western shootout on

I saw him hit tons of three pointers. I met him and got his autograph. I remembered him scoring like 130 points in 3 seconds against the Knicks.

For my entire life, all I had known was Reggie. I was used to him. I loved him. To me, he was the best. It was only later, when I stood back and objectively looked at the facts, that I realized there were better players. I had to forget everything I thought I knew, and actually look at what was really going on.

Well, it’s time for us to all do that again, only with our fantasy football players.

I THOUGHT Chris Johnson was gonna be great.

I THOUGHT Reggie Wayne was one of the best.

I THOUGHT Dallas Clark was a no-brainer.

Time to think again.

Some of you may look at the following rankings system in disbelief. That’s fine. You can continue ignoring the truth. But the rest of you will use this as a guide to finally win some games in your league.

Don’t keep holding on to a mistake, just because you spent $40 on him. Sometimes, we have to cut our losses and move forward with our lives.

As always, here are the biggest movers and shakers of the week before we get to the actual list.

Quarterbacks

Biggest Rise – Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ryan Fitzpatrick wasn’t even in the Top 20 two weeks ago, and now he’s #8. I think Fitz will definitely tail off a little after his hot start, but the Buffalo offense is legit. He has several weapons on the outside to go along with a solid running game.

Also of note is Matt Hasselbeck, who has an asterisk by his name. I think he will be the eleventh best QB until his inevitable injury in week 8 or 9. Nobody has ever questioned the guy’s talent…but he’s a bigger injury risk than Vick at this point in his career.

Biggest Fall – Philip Rivers

Rivers fell five spots to #5. Don’t be too worried though. He has had a startlingly low number of TDs early on, and they will definitely start coming soon. However, Brady, Stafford, Brees, and Rodgers all look to be better options at this point in time.

Running Backs

Biggest Rise – Darren Sproles

Sproles jumped 13 spots to #15 in the rankings. He is clearly New Orleans’ best playmaker at the RB position, he’s an unbelievable threat out of the backfield, and Brees seems to trust him more than almost anyone else on the team right now. Look for Sproles to put up lots of points in the Saints’ exciting offense.

Biggest Fall – Pick Em

Whether it’s Chris Johnson and DeAngelo Williams plummeting into the 30s, or Knowshon Moreno falling completely off the board, there has been no shortage of disappointments at the RB slot this year. Again, don’t be afraid to start benching these guys or even dropping them. Their talent is undeniable, but they just haven’t looked good at all so far in 2011.

Wide Receivers

Biggest Rise – Nate Washington

Washington has always been a good player, and with Kenny Britt’s injury, look for him to start putting up some big numbers. He’s actually still on the waiver wire in a lot of leagues, so you might be able to pick him up for free!

Also, Wes Welker moved all the way up to #2, and with good reason. He’s really the Patriots’ only threat on the outside, he’s practically unguardable from the slot position, and Tom Brady has been throwing the ball all over the place so far. The only thing that keeps Welker from moving to #1 is the magnificence of Megatron.

Biggest Fall – Mike Williams (TB)

It’s not really Williams’ fault, but the Bucs have no other weapons to worry teams. Defenses, so far, have been doubling Williams all over the field and he hasn’t been able to produce to his talent level. I don’t think Williams is going to be TERRIBLE all year, but he’s definitely not in the Top 20 anymore.

Tight Ends

Really, the list is Gronkowski, Hernandez, and everybody else. Jermichael Finley looks like he’s finally cemented himself back into the GB offense, and Tony Gonzalez has shown us that he’s not washed up just yet.

As for the disappointments, they abound as well. Dallas Clark just isn’t the same without #18, and Marcedes Lewis is just awful…he fell off the board completely.

As always, please direct your questions to to comment section or to my twitter account @The_Dr_Twitch.

And remember, if you’re already in an 0-3 hole because you drafted Peyton Manning, Jamaal Charles, Kenny Britt, and Antonio Gates, keep plugging away and try making some bold moves to salvage your season, but also consider playing a weekly fantasy football league where season-ending injuries aren’t an anchor holding you down.

Fantasy Football Player Rankings

Rankings for Rest of Season

Note: Remember that these rankings for how many points these players will score from here on out in the season, not how many points they’ll finish with overall and not specific to Week Four (those come on Thursday, via PlayThisGuy, and will be added at the bottom of this post.)

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Don’t miss the rest of our Fantasy Football Week 4 coverage:

• Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Projections
• Week 4 Waiver Wire Advice
• Week 4 Rankings

Because we at MSF try our best to get you our Start Em, Sit Em picks before everyone else, we have to take a few chances. One of the downsides to coming out with these picks on Tuesday is that we won’t know all of the injury updates that come out later in the week. We answer your questions and update our predictions accordingly as more information comes out.

However, a few predictions didn’t pan out this week because of injuries (either during the game, or because guys with nagging injuries didn’t end up suiting up on Sunday)…so out of fairness to me, we are going to throw out Michael Vick, Felix Jones, and Dez Bryant.

So besides those guys who caught the injury bug, I went 29 out of 46 overall…a little under 65%. I improved from week one…and that’s exactly what you should try to do from week to week in fantasy.

If you missed the $250 MSF Week 1 Freeroll Challenge at FanDuel, shame on you. But the good news is that we’ll be doing another one in Week 3! Details to come soon.

Click here to sign up at FanDuel to play the best weekly fantasy football game around.

Fantasy Football Week Three

Also, don’t miss Andy Bottoms’ Week 3 waiver wire advice!

Week Two Recap

Best Player Predictions: 2 for 3
Picks: Ray Rice, Megatron, and Jermaine Gresham (Michael Vick)
Calvin Johnson had two TDs, and Rice still put up 15 fantasy points in a horrible week for Baltimore. Gresham, however, was a complete no-show. Unfortunately for him, AJ Green announced himself to the world this week, and Gresham didn’t get a lot of targets.

Start Em Predictions: 2.5 for 4
Picks: Tony Romo, Shonn Greene, Jabar Gaffney, and Dallas Clark
Romo was an absolute “hit” of a pick…and he didn’t even play the whole game. However, Greene, Gaffney, and Clark were all lukewarm. None of them killed you if you started them, but none of them really went out and crushed it either. Greene and Clark both got TDs to salvage their days, and Gaffney had a solid amount of yards with no TDs. I’m giving myself 1/2 points for all three of them.

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 13 for 17
Hits: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Darren Sproles, LeSean McCoy, Hakeem Nicks, Miles Austin, Jason Witten, Dustin Keller, and Aaron Hernandez
Misses: Kerry Collins, Devin Hester, Jacoby Jones, and Ed Dickson

Worst Player Predictions: 3 for 4
Picks: Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams, Mike Thomas, and Brandon Pettigrew
Completely missed on the Auburn alum…and completely nailed the other three. I still find it hard to believe that Cam Newton is going to be doing this all year, but he is definitely worth a look right now, especially if you need a solid backup. Also, since I live in Charleston, SC, and am forced to have every single second of every Panther game shown to me on tv, I have to say I’ve loved the young guy’s attitude in both losses this year.

Sit Em Predictions: 0.5 for 4
Picks: Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Santonio Holmes, and Scott Chandler
Holmes scored a TD to salvage an otherwise mediocre day, so I’m giving myself a half point on that one. Other than that, Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Chandler were all misses.

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 8 for 14
Hits: Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford, Colts’ RBs, LaDainian Tomlinson, Mark Ingram, Mike Thomas, Ben Watson, Greg Olsen, Todd Heap
Misses: Matt Hasselbeck, Sam Bradford, LeGarrette Blount, AJ Green, Steve Smith 1.0, and Dwyane Bowe.

On to Week Three!

Just a little clarification… “Top Performer” predictions can be anybody…I can put Tom Brady in there every single week if I want to (and by the looks of it, I may just have to do that). However, “Start Em” guys will be QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25 at their position (unless, for some reason, a lot of people are predicting them to have a terrible week and I disagree). “Sit Em” guys will be QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25 at their position.

Again, the goal of this article is to help you with the FRINGE guys…any idiot could sit down and predict, with great accuracy, that the top 10 fantasy QBs will have good weeks. At MSF, we try to help you with the difficult choices.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Quarterbacks

Projected Best Performer: Tom Brady
What? You were expecting someone else? It’s possible it will be incredibly windy in Buffalo this weekend…unfortunately, that is the Bills’ only hope at slowing down Justin Bieber on Sunday.

Tom Brady fantasy football Week 3 projection – 390 yards; 4 TDs, 1 INT

Projected Worst Performer: Matt Cassel
He’s been awful so far this year…and now he will be playing without his best offensive weapon against a team that will be trying to exact revenge after making so many dumb mistakes against the Pats last week.

Matt Cassel fantasy football Week Three projection – 195 yards; 1 TD, 3 INTs

Start Em QB: Rex Grossman
This is a combination of two things: I actually really like what Grossman has done so far this year; and the Cowboys’ secondary is terrible. The possibility exists that Washington will be in for a tough game on the road in Dallas, but I don’t think it will affect Grossman’s numbers very much on Monday Night.

Rex Grossman fantasy football Week 3 projection – 330 yards; 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other Start ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• Philip Rivers – Always.
• Matt Stafford – As long as he’s healthy.
• Cam Newton – Home against Jacksonville…he should have a very solid day again.
• Matt Ryan – Big game against Tampa Bay.

Sit Em QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick
This might not sound like a huge leap of faith, but Fitzpatrick is currently the fifth overall ranked fantasy QB, and New England’s pass defense isn’t exactly spectacular. Nevertheless, I really don’t like Fitzpatrick this week.

If the Bills end up trailing by 14 or more early on (I think they will), Fitzpatrick won’t have the time to sit back in the pocket like he did against Oakland this week. NE will get him uncomfortable, and force him into a few more mistakes than normal.

Ryan Fitzpatrick fantasy football Week Three projection – 230 yards; 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other Sit ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler – (Relatively to what they will normally do)…I think the GB/CHI game will be a lot uglier than what people will be expecting.
• Donovan McNabb – Against Suh…yikes!
• Kerry Collins – Maybe the last game of his career.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Running Backs

Projected Best Performer: Maurice Jones-Drew
Mo-Joe should get lots of carries if and when Blaine Gabbert starts on Sunday, and he will probably be fantastic until he dies in week 5 due to being unbelievably over-worked for the past twenty years.

Maurice Jones-Drew fantasy football Week 3 projection – 140 Rushing Yards, 1 TD; 85 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Projected Worst Performer: Colts’ RBs
They are awful…and they will be playing Pittsburgh. There’s just nothing to like about the Colts’ offense this week.

Joseph Addai and Delone Carter fantasy football Week Three projection – 28 Rushing Yards TOTAL

Start Em RB: Rashard Mendenhall
I’m really down on Mendenhall this year, but against the Colts on Sunday Night, he will haul a lot people back onto his bandwagon.

Rashard Mendenhall fantasy football Week 3 projection – 115 Rushing Yards; 45 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• LeSean McCoy – Maybe no Vick…maybe tons of stats for the RB.
• Fred Jackson – Gets a surprising amount of yardage on the ground against NE.
• Ray Rice – Could be the overall top performer against St. Louis.
• Shonn Greene – The second of like six or seven straight great weeks for him.

Sit Em RB: Jahvid Best
I think the Lions will do pretty well against Minnesota this week, but I don’t necessarily love the matchup for Best. The Vikings’ D-Line is still solid, but more importantly, they have shown to be vulnerable in the air. Megatron and his friends will be targeted early and often…and for good reason.

Jahvid Best fantasy football Week Three projection – 45 Rushing Yards; 45 Receiving Yards

Other Sit ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• Adrian Peterson – Ndomakong Suh (you’re still starting him of course, but temper expectations)
• Darren McFadden – Not against the Jets. He may break one big reception, but otherwise, he will be bottled up.
• Packers Running Backs – The platoon is killing both of them…and neither will run well in Chicago.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer: Brandon Marshall
Marshall will most likely be playing in an ugly game at Cleveland. Both teams will try to run the ball quite a bit in order to control the clock, and the passing games will be left out a little bit. That won’t be a problem for Marshall though. He will create matchup problems for the undersized Cleveland secondary all day, and while the Dolphins may lose, Marshall should have a big day.

Brandon Marshall fantasy football Week 3 projection – 8 Catches for 165 Yards and 1 TD.

Projected Worst Performer: Denarius Moore
Revis Island. Moving on.

Denarius Moore fantasy football Week Three projection – 1 Catch for 9 Yards

Start Em WR: Santana Moss
Moss is quietly having a very solid fantasy season once again. At this point, he is the 27th ranked WR, and he only has one TD meaning his value hasn’t been super inflated. He should have a great game against the soft Dallas secondary, and if the game turns into a high-scoring affair, Moss will get a lot of targets. Surprisingly, he’s still Washington’s big-play guy at this point in his career, and I expect him to break a couple on Monday Night.

Santana Moss fantasy football Week 3 projection – 9 Catches for 140 Yards and 1 TD.

Other Start ‘em WRs for Week 3:

• Reggie Wayne – The only Colt player that will have a good week.
• Larry Fitzgerald – He is becoming more comfortable with Kolb…look out.
• AJ Green – I think he’s one of the top 5 talented WRs in the league already…and I’m not kidding. Just watch this. Plus, it looks like Andy Dalton knows that now as well.
• Steve Smith 1.0 – If Cam has a big day, Steve will have a big day.

Sit Em WR: Dwayne Bowe
Just a bad day to be a Chiefs fan. Cassel will most likely struggle, and San Diego will concentrate on shutting Bowe and the running game down. Last year against San Diego, Bowe combined for 2 catches and 16 yards…that’s the TOTAL for both games. Be very careful before Tasting the Dwayne Bowe this weekend.

Dwayne Bowe fantasy football Week Three projection – 3 Catches for 30 Yards.

Other Sit ‘em WRs for Week 3:

• Julio Jones – I still don’t think he’s that good. He may break out in week 8, but he’s way too inconsistent to be looked at this early in his career. Just click on this article for proof.
• Jeremy Maclin – He and DeSean Jackson are just too inconsistent…but I think it’s Jackson’s turn this week to have a big week and Maclin will be left out.
• Santonio Holmes – Keller and Plaxico are options 1 and 2 in the red zone for the Jets right now. And Greene is probably #3.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start em, Sit em Projections: Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer: Rob Gronkowski
This is a no-brainer. Hernandez is banged up and will miss a few games. Gronkowski may go for 400 yards in this offense right now.

Rob Gronkowski fantasy football Week 3 projection – 9 Catches for 145 Yards and 2 TDs.

Projected Worst Performer: Todd Heap
There is a reason that Baltimore let him go so easily…and you should let him go as well.

Todd Heap fantasy football Week Three projection – 0 Catches

Start Em TE: Brent Celek
If Vick is banged up and can’t go, or even if he is healthy but playing a little more conservatively, Celek should have a big game. Currently, he sits 30th overall in the TE rankings, but Celek owners should look forward to this Sunday.

Brent Celek fantasy football Week 3 projection – 8 Catches for 85 Yards and 1 TD.

Other Start ‘em TEs for Week 3:

• Dustin Keller – Quickly becoming the Sanchize’s favorite target.
• Tony Gonzalez – He’s still got a little left in the tank…I was wrong.
• Jermaine Gresham
• Owen Daniels – High scoring affair against New Orleans…Schaub will look to him often to beat the Saints’ blitz.

Sit Em TE: Dallas Clark
I just hate the matchup. Polomalu will be ranging all over the middle of the field, and Collins will be on his back for much of the game. Clark may be needed to pass block more than normal, and he just won’t be able to get into the game at all.

Dallas Clark fantasy football Week 3 projection – 5 Catches for 40 Yards and 1 Fumble

Other Sit ‘Em TEs for Week 3:

• Scott Chandler – Don’t chase Touchdowns! They will end up disappointing you.
• Jimmy Graham – One of those weeks that Brees finds everybody but him.
• Ben Watson – The classic “I scored a TD early and I look better than I really am” guy. Take it out, and you have a guy with 6 catches for 61 yards. Not terrible…but not a starter in a league with less than 25 teams.

Good Luck in Week Three!  As always, feel free to ask questions in the comment section, or on my twitter (@The_Dr_Twitch) or to our MSF Fantasy Twitter account (@FantasyMSF).

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Stay caught up with all of our Week 3 fantasy football analysis:

• Week 3 Start em, Sit em Projections
• Week 3 Waiver Wire Advice
• Week 3 Stats to Know
• Week 3 Fantasy Football Talk Start/Sit Podcast
• Week 3 Player Rankings at QB, RB, WR, TE, K, and D/ST
• Week 3 Sleeper Picks

Cam Newton (QB – CAR)

At this exact point last year Michael Vick wound up being a godsend for those who missed out on a top-flight QB on draft day…if he was still on your waiver wire and you ponied up the appropriate FAAB $$$ for him. The closest facsimile to Vick this time around would be Newton.

You know he is going to start, has already proved himself with an unprecedented first game out of the box as an NFL rookie, and even in games where he may struggle through the air, Cam can bail you out with some rushing yards, like Vick.

In all standard waiver wire formats he’s worth a claim even if set at QB. The agenda is a bit different in a FAAB format however. If you already have an elite QB (Rodgers/Brady/Brees/Rivers) don’t bother making a bid. But if you are in need Cam’s worth a $35-$40 bid out of a $100 FAAB allotment.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB-BUF)

This would be the cheaper, less extravagant option to Cam. And some day I’m going to come to realize that the man is actually more than a halfway decent QB. Fitzpatrick now has 27 TD passes in his last 14 appearances. You can do far worse than that and can be had with a reasonable FAAB bid if available.

Chad Henne (QB-MIA)

Fourth QB in league history to throw for 400 yards and rush for 50 yards in the same game. Even if not convinced that he is following in Tom Brady’s Michigan footsteps, he can always dump off to Reggie Bush, and is a nice QB2 at the very worst.

Christian Ponder (QB-MN)

I don’t know what is smelling more out of the state of Minnesota right now, the Boundary Waters fire or Donovan McNabb’s magnificent 39-yard debut. Could the Vikes end up turning to Ponder sooner than anyone expects??? I would suspect they would at least be THINKING of it…

Ben Tate (RB-HOU)

I boldly predicted a 150-yard rushing game out of Tate last weekend, and wasn’t far off. I was this confident because I was asleep at the switch with the FA pick-ups for Week 1 and he was actually still available in a 10-team league I’m in.

And no, it wasn’t going to take too long for Tate to supplant Derrick Ward on the depth chart. Maybe in the long run Tate still ends up behind Arian Foster, but then again who was Arian before Week 1 last year??? In fantasy football trash becomes treasure and vice versa very fast. Those who were begging Arian to get back on the field the past few weeks should had instead been busy fitting a set of handy-dandy wrist warmers and using Tate as a handcuff.

Cadillac Williams (RB-TB)

Without trying to play doctor on just how bad Stephen Jackson’s injury is, the fact is he is ALREADY ruled out for next Monday Night. The Rams also have a Week 5 bye. Add those two facts together and you are ensured that Cadillac should be the STL’s featured back if healthy the next three weeks. If all goes well, Jackson would be eased in for Week 6, but re-aggravation risks could linger the entire season.

There is a ceiling on Cadillac’s potential as a starter, but worth a $15-20 bid if in need of a RB – but look at his employment with you as a three-week ‘temporary’ assignment.

Deji Karim (RB-JAX)

Good news is there isn’t a Brandon Jackson this year to blow 60% of a FAAB budget in Week 2 (remember, he was going to go nuts on those Buffalo Bills), which leaves some cheaper more speculative picks available. Even in the best case scenario, Maurice Jones-Drew will have a pitch-count this year, so I see Karim getting ten or so touches per game. Bad news is a lot of fantasy owners are already on him, saw him flying off a lot of 12-team formats last week.

Dexter McCluster (RB/WR – KC)

I actually drafted/bidded him as a handcuff to Jamaal Charles in a couple of leagues. If Charles were to get hit by a bus, Thomas Jones would gets some carries, but Dexter would then get a lot of Charles’ current workload. Another plus with McCluster is multiple-position eligibility in many formats, not unlike how some players in fantasy baseball prove valuable.

Alex Green (RB-GB)

I am thinking a few moves ahead here. Ryan Grant is, Ryan Grant. James Starks is decent but his ceiling is limited as well. I would not be shocked to see the final pick of the third round see significant time by November or December. If you have a slot to stash him he’s worth it, before he does something that gets him noticed. Yes, I know he didn’t do much in pre-season (16 carries/23 yards) but small sample size.

Early Doucet (WR-AZ)

Devery Henderson is obviously on a lot of waiver wire columns as well with Marques Colston down, so I will focus on Doucet, who like Henderson has been derailed trying to get his career off the ground. But Doucet did have a moderate breakout game in Week 1 (3 catches/105 yards) and somebody has to step up as a #2 receiver with the Cardinals. Don’t go too nuts on a FAAB bid, I would had been more impressed with a 6-72 stat line which would show that the receiver was getting more targets. Doucet and the Cards do get a nice Week 2 matchup v. Washington.

Randall Cobb (WR-GB)

Good news is Cobb is still under the radar fantasy-wise even after incredible knockout debut. Bad news is GBP players come at a premium in the fantasy realm. And Cobb is still only #5 on the depth chart, although there is always plenty of balls to go around in Packerland, Aaron Rodgers completed passes to ten different players in the opener. Still I see Cobb getting 2-3 catches per game and is worth a stash, especially in deeper leagues – think poor man’s Percy Harvin.

Fred Davis (TE-WSH)

If you don’t have an elite player at this position, TE is a very difficult position to fill on the waiver wire – unless you have Jacob Tamme stepping in catching passes from Peyton Manning last season. For that reason I would definitely jump on Davis after his 105-yard day v. NYG. Chris Cooley’s best days are behind him and going forward he is lukewarm at best. And Davis isn’t exactly new on the scene, he caught 48 passes in 2009.

Nick Novak (K-SD)

If you need a kicker this is your man after Nate Kaeding tore his ACL making the mistake of making a lunge at Percy Harvin on his opening KO return. Novak has been signed by the Chargers and has experience, so he has a good chance at being a top-ten kicker for the balance of the season.

Sebastian Janikowski (K-OAK)

Not available on the waiver wire but still fun to watch. Most kickers who have the opportunity at a 63-yard attempt would have to pull driver out of the bag. SeaBass?? He just takes out the six-iron, clears the crossbar by plenty, and probably would had even released on a golf green. The record-tying kick was no surprise, I was actually more impressed by a would-be game winning 52-yard FG that he missed in Denver four years ago. That ball ended up hitting the TOP of the upright. No kicker is worth the first-round choice Al Davis spent on him years ago, but that leg remains freakish – but still glad that Tom Dempsey’s original 63-yarder continues to stand the test of time.

If there’s one piece of advice I can give you following Week One, that’s it.

If a player on your roster had an off week (yeah, I’m talking to you DeAngelo Williams), ask yourself whether you would dump them if they did the same thing in the middle of the season.  If so, cut away.  Otherwise, trust your draft research and strategy for another week or two.  Now, if you took a few late-round fliers and see someone on the waiver wire you like more, go for it.

If you missed the $250 MSF Week 1 Freeroll Challenge at FanDuel, shame on you.

Click here to sign up at FanDuel to play the best weekly fantasy football game around and so you don’t miss the next MSF Freeroll (likely Week 3)!

As always, I’m looking only at players owned in less than 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 2 Waiver Wire Pickups: Quarterback

Ryan Fitzpatrick (46%), Buffalo

No team laid a bigger egg than the Chiefs on Sunday, and Fitzpatrick took full advantage, throwing for 208 yards and four touchdowns.  Keep in mind that he got off to a hot start once he became the starter last season, throwing for 11 TDs in his first four games.  The other 12 scores came over a nine-game span, so consistency isn’t necessarily his strong suit.  Still, Fitzpatrick has Oakland next up on the schedule, which makes him an option if your other matchups are bad or you had the misfortune of drafting Peyton Manning.

Cam Newton (33%), Carolina

When you see gaudy yardage totals like the 422 passing yards that Newton hung on Arizona in his first game as a starter, you may be inclined to chalk it up to garbage time.  Not the case here, as Newton was effective and productive throughout before coming up just short on the final drive.  In addition to the passing yards, Newton was used at the goal line on consecutive runs, the second of which he converted after diving over the pile like a running back.  A date with Green Bay next week may provide some “Welcome to the NFL” moments, but Newton has solidified his status as a QB2 and potential matchup play against the right opponent.

Rex Grossman (6%), Washington

Grossman has been basically a pigskin punchline, but over his last four games with Washington, he’s thrown for 1145 yards and nine touchdowns.  Who knows how long he remains the starter for the ever-fickle Mike Shanahan, but for now, it’s Rex’s gig.  Grossman faces the Cardinals next week – yes, the same Cardinals defense that gave up 422 yards to a rookie QB making his first start.  That’s fantasy gold for those in two quarterback leagues as well as those desperate for a starter in other formats.

Update: Since we pride ourselves on getting this out early, I submitted the Week 2 waiver wire advice column prior to the Monday night games. When applicable, I will submit updates to the column with any waiver-worthy players from Monday night.

So don’t start going Ron Jaworski on me and cussing about missing these games! I’ve got you covered.

As luck would have it, only one man stood out among the fantasy neglected on Monday night. And that man was none other than…Chad Henne of the Miami Dolphins.

Fantasy Football Week 2 Waiver Wire Advice: Running Back

Ben Tate (43%), Houston

With Arian Foster inactive, both Tate and Derrick Ward ran for touchdowns against the Colts.  Ward tweaked his ankle, so Tate got the bulk of the carries and finished with 116 rushing yards.  Foster is expected back next week against the Dolphins, but he’s one more hamstring issue away from missing a significant portion of the season.  It’s also not inconceivable that Gary Kubiak eases Foster back into the mix, which means more work for Tate and/or Ward.  With such a large lead, the Texans took the cautious approach with Ward this week, so the true extent of his injury is unclear.  However, if I’m going after one of these guys, it’s Tate at this point.

Deji Karim (10%), Jacksonville

I listed Karim last week due to my lack of faith in Maurice Jones-Drew’s knees.  That’s still a factor here, but even with MJD at full strength (albeit on some kind of snap count), Karim had 17 touches.  He ran 14 times for 33 yards and caught all three of his targets for 39 more.  The Jags ran the ball over 40 times, and if they continue to use that game plan (not a bad idea with Luke McCown at QB), Karim should see double-digit touches on a weekly basis.  Next week’s date with the Jets isn’t ideal, but his involvement in the offense proves Karim is worth owning in more than 10 percent of leagues.

Cadillac Williams (7%), St. Louis

Steven Jackson got the Rams’ season off to a quick start with a 47-yard TD scamper on their first play from scrimmage.  Unfortunately, he injured his quad in the process, which opened the door for Cadillac Williams to roll up 140 total yards.  He ran 19 times for 91 yards and caught six passes on a team-high 10 targets for 49 more.  If Jackson misses any time, Williams is in line to be the workhorse.  That workload only increases if Sam Bradford’s finger injury puts him on the shelf.  Next week the Rams take on the Giants, who surrendered 97 total yards and a TD to Tim Hightower in their first game.

Earnest Graham (1%), Buccaneers

This one is only for those in the deepest of PPR leagues, but Graham had eight receptions for 58 yards to go with 13 rushing yards in Tampa Bay’s loss to the Lions.  After falling behind, the Bucs went to a pass-heavy attack which rendered LeGarrette Blount virtually useless.  Graham has established himself as the team’s third-down back and was targeted nine times, mostly on short dump-off passes.  Keep an eye on him in the coming weeks to see if he’s able to sustain this kind of involvement in the offense.

Fantasy Football Week 2 Waiver Wire Advice: Wide Receiver

Devery Henderson (22%), New Orleans

It’s getting tough to find healthy wideouts for the Saints these days with Lance Moore missing the opener with a groin injury and Marques Colston out for at least a month with a broken collarbone.  Enter Devery Henderson, who most fantasy owners have rostered at one point or another, thinking he’s finally ready to become a consistent producer.  Many of you may even be in some Devery Henderson-related support group at this point based on the way he’s treated fantasy owners over time.  Anyway, he led the Saints with 100 receiving yards and a TD in the opener, and even if Moore is back this week, Henderson will remain a factor against Chicago.  Fellow wideout Robert Meachem missed the cut here since he’s owned in 54 percent of leagues, but he’s another strong waiver option if he’s still out there in your league.

Jacoby Jones (19%), Houston

The Texans didn’t need to throw it much against Indy on Sunday, but it’s worth noting that Kevin Walter has apparently broken his shoulder and is out for at least a few months if not the season.  Someone is bound to benefit from all the attention directed at Andre Johnson, and that would seem to be Jones.  He’s shown flashes but has been largely inconsistent over the course of his career.  Jones did catch at least five passes in the last four games last year, and he’s an excellent return man in leagues that use return yards.

Antonio Brown (27%), Pittsburgh

The bad news: Brown had just two catches for 14 yards, and Emmanuel Sanders caught Pittsburgh’s lone TD.  The good news: Brown was targeted nine times.  He simply isn’t startable in fantasy leagues at this point, but if you stick with him during the growing pains, it could pay dividends later this season.

Anthony Armstrong (5%), Washington

Armstrong finished with just two receptions for 24 yards on Sunday, but there is reason for optimism.  First, one of those grabs was a nice six-yard TD.  Second, he dropped a couple bombs that could have pushed his yardage total over the century mark.  Armstrong displayed good chemistry with Grossman toward the end of last season, and that continued today.  If you’re desperate for help at wide receiver, you could do worse.

Kevin Ogletree (0%), Dallas

Let’s look at a few things.  1) Dallas has virtually no depth at wide receiver.  2) Dez Bryant already got banged up with a quad bruise and leg cramps in the opener against the Jets, and the biggest question heading into this season surrounded his health.  3) The Cowboys are going to throw it a ton.  So all that said, Ogletree becomes a guy to put on your watch list just in case.

Greg Salas (0%), St. Louis

Danny Amendola dislocated his elbow and is out for a while, which leaves a huge hole in the Rams passing game.  While Mike Sims-Walker should benefit, don’t count out Salas, a rookie from Hawaii.  He caught one pass for 21 yards on Sunday, but if he slides into the slot with Amendola sidelined, he’s worth a look in PPR leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 2 Waiver Wire Advice: Tight End

Lance Kendricks (34%), St. Louis

I won’t sugarcoat it.  The stat line was ugly.  The drops (one of which would have been a TD) were ugly.  But Bradford wasn’t afraid to go back to him, and with Amendola injured, Kendricks may see even more targets.  I’m going down with the ship on this one.

Jermaine Gresham (15%), Cincinnati

There weren’t too many people investing heavily in the Cincinnati passing game heading into this season, and there wasn’t a ton I saw from either Andy Dalton or Bruce Gradkowski to make me reconsider that stance.  Except for their second-year tight end who hauled in six catches for 58 yards and a score.  He was targeted eight times and doesn’t have a murderer’s row coming up on the schedule.  Just another example of how deep tight end is this year.

Ed Dickson (2%), Baltimore

Take a wait-and-see approach here, but Dickson, who was a terrific tight end at Oregon, acquitted himself well in his first start.  He caught all five of his targets for 59 yards and a TD.  Dickson was unable to gain much separation from fellow TE Dennis Pitta in the preseason, but this performance could be enough.  Consider him a TE2 at best for now.

Fred Davis (1%), Washington

After catching a TD in each of the final two games last season, Davis and Rex Grossman picked up right where they left off, hooking up five times for 105 yards.  Davis saw twice as many looks than veteran Chris Cooley, and it’s worth noting that Davis did a terrific job when filling in for an injured Cooley in 2009, catching five TDs over one four-game stretch.  Again, he can’t be considered more than a TE2, but the upside is there.

Scott Chandler (0%), Buffalo

It seems like every year a tight end goes off in the first week that make everyone go “Who the hell is this guy?”  Chandler is that guy this year after catching five passes for 63 yards and two scores.  He entered the game with one reception for eight yards in his career.  Is it possible he’s a breakout candidate?  I suppose, but it’s more likely that the Chiefs were just that horrendous.

Streaming Defense(s) of the Week

I am a huge fan of streaming defenses based on matchups, so each week I will try to throw out one or two for those of you in the same boat.

Houston (23%)

It was hard to get a true read on just how improved this defense was given the junior varsity nature of their opponent’s play, but there is reason to be intrigued, particularly against the Dolphins.

Cleveland (23%)

Save for a TD pass to A.J. Green when the Browns had just started to break the huddle and a late TD to Cedric Benson, the Cleveland defense wasn’t terrible.  You know who was terrible?  The Colts, who Cleveland plays in Week Two.

Have any questions or feedback?  Leave them in the comments below or hit me up on Twitter (@andybottoms).

Unfortunately, the eternal King of Pop is no longer with us (he would have turned 53 just a few days ago on August 29th), and he thus he will never be able to follow in the footsteps of Bruce Springsteen, The Who, John Mellencamp, and others who have taken to the Super Bowl stage as older musicians, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t weave the musical brilliance of Michael Jackson into a post about the National Football League.

So enjoy this homage to my favorite musician of all time, Michael Jackson, as we kick off our coverage of the 2011 NFL season. Here are all 32 Week One starting QBs in the NFL…as Michael Jackson songs.

AFC East

Tom Brady (NE) – “Blame It On The Boogie”

There are high hopes for the reigning NFL MVP heading into 2011. Coming off of the second best statistical season of his career, but yet another playoff loss, it feels like there is more urgency to capture Super Bowl #4 for he and Brilliant Bill. (How else do you explain bringing in a certified turd like Albert Haynesworth?)

However, if you are a Patriots fan, how much confidence can you have after seeing your quarterback dance like this during the offseason?

Is there any kind of historical precedent for a superstar NFL quarterback being videotaped dancing in such a sacless manner and then winning a Super Bowl? I can’t think of one.

So if things do not go as planned in New England this year – and let’s be honest, the plan is Super Bowl or Bust, as it always should be when you have Brady and Belichick – then Patriots fans can simply blame it on the (Brady) boogie.

———

Mark Sanchez (NYJ) – “Mama’s Pearl”

Ever since Jets mama bear Rex Ryan named Mark Sanchez his Week 1 starter before Sanchez’s rookie season, the coach has joined Jets supporters across the nation in making excuse after excuse for Sanchez’s overall poor play. For his career, Sanchez has completed just 54.4% of his passes and has thrown four more INTs than he has thrown touchdowns.

Of course, the immediate counter-argument is that Sanchez has also played in his conference’s championship games the last two season, something no other QB in the NFL can say. And as long as the Jets keep on winning, even if Sanchez’s stats and overall play remain underwhelming, in the eyes of mother bear Rex his young QB will undoubtedly remain mama’s pearl.

———

Chad Henne (MIA) – “Bad”

To say that Chad Henne has been a disappointment to Dolphins fans would be a gross understatement. His 27:33 career TD:INT ratio has been, in a word, bad. His inability to make good decisions in the red zone has been even worse.

But in Michael Jackson’s song “Bad” he is not singing about someone who sucks. MJ is singing about being a badass. And hey, despite being scrawny, certifiably kooky, and even at times somewhat effeminate, Michael Jackson was a badass.

But can Chad Henne come anything close to badass?

Chad Henne has two choices in 2011: he can either continue being bad in the literal sense of the word, or he can carry his impressive preseason play into the regular season and be bad. Like, say, Drew Brees bad (which actually means good, in this case). And there’s precedent, so says no less an authority than the great Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders and Grantland fame.

No pressure Chad; it’s only the entire Dolphins’ season riding on which “bad” you choose.

———

Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF) – “They Don’t Care About Us”

Ryan Fitzpatrick is still the quarterback in Buffalo, and he is actually more productive than most people give him credit for. However, I’ll reiterate: he plays in Buffalo, which is why many people don’t give him or any other Bills player much credit.

The Bills and their fans would not be wrong to say they don’t care about us in relation to the attention they receive from the national football media at large. But, of course, it’s hard to garner much attention when you don’t win games.

Sure, people cared about the Buffalo Bills at one time, back when they were running roughshod over the AFC on their way to four straight Super Bowls, when the “K-Gun” offense was the cat’s pajamas. But now? Like I said, other than residents of Buffalo and Toronto, no one really cares.

———

AFC North

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) – “Ben” and “Dirty Diana”

Obviously young MJ’s classic song “Ben” is a perfect fit for the player NFL analysts refer to simply by his first name, Ben. So let’s just get that out of the way right now.

But stopping at “Ben” for Ben Roethlisberger would be a copout. And we’re not coupouters here at MSF, so we’ll provide a second song for Mr. Roethlisberger aka Bathroom Ben.

And really, what song other than “Dirty Diana” would be appropriate for someone whose idea of a good time is getting drunk with random dirty Dianas and engaging in relations in the bathroom of a bar?

———

Joe Flacco (BAL) – “Beat It”

Do you realize that this Bert doppelganger has completed 62% of his passes and has a solid 60:34 TD:INT ratio for his three-year career? It’s quite possible, perhaps even probable, that Joe Flacco is the most underrated QB in the NFL.

But the stats are just a small part of it.

As we know, QBs are judged by wins and losses. Well, all Joe Flacco has done is beat it — the opposing team that it is — in two-thirds of the regular season games he has started. He has also won a playoff game in each of his three seasons in the NFL. Even the highly acclaimed Matt Ryan can’t beat that.

———

Colt McCoy (CLE) – “Little Bitty Pretty One”

The second-year player for the Browns stands just 6’1, which is just an inch taller than noted shorty Drew Brees. The cherubic McCoy also holds the Super Bowl (heck, Wild Card) aspirations of a starving Browns fan base on his little bitty pretty shoulders, as a town desperate for a solid QB and a winning team hopes that McCoy is the answer to its collective prayers.

And yes, I know that the Jackson 5 version of “Little Bitty Pretty One” is a cover of a Frankie Lymon song, but seeing as how Browns fans would be ecstatic if McCoy simply ends up being a cover of their beloved Bernie Kosar, it seems appropriate.

———

Andy Dalton (CIN) – “She’s Out of My Life”

In this case, it’s actually a he, not a she, that is out of Dalton and Bengals’ fans lives. And the he in question is Carson Palmer, who has chosen to retire rather than subject himself to anymore Bengals nonsense (assuming he doesn’t make a surprise 11th hour visit to camp).

Of course, while Bengals owner Mike Brown seems to be happily chirping He’s out of my life in reference to Palmer, other observers are criticizing Brown’s “damned indecision and cursed pride” seeing as how he could have traded Palmer and gotten something for him rather than wasting one of the team’s few valuable assets.

Now it’s up to the rookie Dalton to lead the Palmer-less and Ochocinco-less Bengals into 2011. For Bengals fans, it will probably just be another wicked season that “cuts like a knife”, and by Week 8 Bengals fans may be wishing the franchise, or at least the much-maligned Brown, was out of their life.

———

AFC South

Peyton Manning (IND) – “Smooth Criminal”

Is anyone smoother at running an offense than Peyton Manning? It’s almost criminal the way he picks apart opposing defenses as if he’s stolen their signals or planted a bug in their huddle.

Regardless, the reason why “Smooth Criminal” is the MJ song perfect for Peyton in 2011 is because all you have to do is substitute one word in the song to make it an almost perfect reenactment of every time the Colts QB has met with the press this offseason.

Peyton Are You OK?
So, Peyton Are You OK
Are You OK, Peyton
Peyton Are You OK?
So, Peyton Are You OK
Are You OK, Peyton
Peyton Are You OK?
So, Peyton Are You OK?
Are You OK, Peyton?
Peyton Are You OK?
So, Peyton Are You Ok, Are You Ok, Peyton?

Well Peyton? Are you? ARE YOU? We’ll find out Week 1.

And if Peyton is okay, and doesn’t miss a start, then the true “smooth criminal” will be Kerry Collins for getting paid $4 million to do…what, exactly?

Matt Schaub (HOU) – “Can You Feel It”

It seems like every year is the Texans’ year.

“No really, this will be the season that Kubiak, Schaub, Johnson, Williams, et al, finally put it together and make the franchise’s first playoff appearance.”

“No, no, this will be the year. Seriously!”

With questions surrounding Peyton Manning’s health, and vultures sure to circle Lucas Oil Stadium should Peyton have to miss any time, this year really could be the year in Houston.

Seriously. For real. I can almost feel it; can you feel it? This year actually will be THE year for the Texans. I even predicted it!

———

Matt Hasselbeck (TEN) – “One More Chance”

Matt Hasselbeck took the Seahawks to their only Super Bowl appearance and gave Seattle, for the most part, above average play at the QB position on a consistent basis for the better part of a decade. Yet despite leading the Seahawks to an unexpected playoff berth and an even more unexpected playoff win last year, he was jettisoned so that Seattle could move on to the…Tarvarlie Jackhurst Era. Win forever!

Hasselbeck landed on his feet though, taking over for the departed Vincerry Youngins in Tennessee. Sure, he’s just keeping the seat warm for Jake Locker, and may not even last the whole season as the starter, but at least Hasselback gets one more chance to lead a team.

Good for him. He’s earned it.

———

David Garrard (JAC) – “Somebody’s Watching Me”

Poor David Garrard. No matter what this guy does, he just can never seem to earn himself any job security.

Last year, Garrard completed 64.5% of his passes, threw 23 touchdowns, and had a QB rating of 90.8, keeping the Jags in the playoff hunt until their pathetic defense collapsed during a three-game skid to end the season. And how was Garrard repaid for his solid season? Jacksonville went out and drafted Blaine Gabbert in the first round, meaning Garrard gets to spend yet another season looking over his shoulder with somebody watching him.

Ironically, Jacksonville is one of the worst NFL franchises when it comes to attendance and avoiding blackouts, so perhaps a song called “Nobody’s Watching Me” would have been more appropriate; but “Somebody’s Watching Me” works because it’s one of Michael Jackson’s more recognizable yet underappreciated vocal performances, and Garrard similarly falls into that underappreciated category.

This song won’t make any MJ Greatest Hits CDs (hell, it’s not even his song, it’s Berry Gordy’s son Rockwell’s) just like Garrard won’t ever make an All Pro team, but both have their moments of greatness and are better than most people given them credit for.

———

AFC West

Philip Rivers (SD) – “You Wanna Be Starting Something”

Few players start more somethings on the field than Philip Rivers. It seems like he’s always barking at someone on the opposing team, talking trash, and just generally trying to stir things up.

Yes, Philip Rivers always wanna be starting something.

Relatedly, how great of a beat does this song have? It’s slick, quick, and sweet (just like Philip Rivers’ release, coincidentally). Damn the Thriller album was awesome.

———

Jason Campbell (OAK) – “Man In the Mirror”

“Man In the Mirror” is a triumphant song about change, and no quarterback I can remember has gone through more change than Jason Campbell.

I’m pretty sure that either Campbell’s head coach or coordinator has been different for each of his seasons in the NFL. Contrast that with the stability that guys like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees have had, and it’s no wonder why the strong-armed Campbell has toiled in relative obscurity and frustrated his fan bases for the last half decade.

But when Campbell looks at the man in the mirror he’ll see a guy who has never had a season in which he’s thrown more picks than touchdowns and a guy who had improved his accuracy every season before dropping off last year. If the Raiders can develop a few receivers, maybe Campbell can make some change instead of just enduring it.

———

Kyle Orton (DEN) – “Human Nature”

It is to be expected that fans will want young first round picks who are upstanding citizens and who were Heisman Trophy-winning college football heroes to play over fully-formed veterans. Kyle Orton, a fully-formed veteran who has proven himself to be solid but unspectacular, needs to remind himself of that this year when, no matter what he does on the field, fans clamor for Tim Tebow to be given a shot as the starting QB.

Why? Why? Tell Kyle that it’s human nature…for fans anyway. Orton just needs to hope it’s not the nature of John Fox. (It’s not.)

———

Matt Cassel (KC) – “The Lost Children”

Matt Cassel was never the starting quarterback at USC. For the first several years of his NFL career, he was never the starting quarterback for the New England Patriots. When it came to game experience, Cassel was among the few lost children who had none, but who had enough potential to continue advancing through the ranks.

Then Tom Brady got hurt, Cassel excelled, and he moved on to the Chiefs. After a rough first season he played well last year, taking advantage of a weak schedule and an absurd season by Dwayne Bowe, leading the Chiefs to the playoffs.

Hopes are high this year, but will Cassel be up to the task? If he’s not, he may go back to being a lost NFL child if the demanding Todd Haley and the Chiefs lose faith in his ability to be the franchise’s QB of the future.

———-

Okay, we’re through the AFC. Deep breath. Only 16 more QBs (actually 17; you’ll see…) and songs to go.

One song that did not make the cut, despite being one of my favorite Michael Jackson songs of all-time, is “Rock With You.” It just didn’t seem to fit with anyone.

But since you, dear reader, have continued rocking with me through this long but hopefully entertaining post, I dedicate this classic MJ diddy to you.

———-

NFC East

Tony Romo (DAL) – “The Girl Is Mine”

This is a pretty simple one: Jessica Simpson; this cute but non-famous blonde; Carrie Underwood; former MSF writer (and Chiefs fan!) and current Mrs. Romo Candice Crawford.

It seems like in Tony Romo’s world, he can always say the girl is mine.

Plus, Michael Jackson never wrote a song about fumbling a snap to lose a playoff game. So really, this was the only choice.

(Also, Paul McCartney has played at the new, immaculate Cowboys Stadium, so there is that too.)

———

Eli Manning (NYG) – “Scream”

Last year, no quarterback made his team’s fans scream, in both joy and agony, more than Eli Manning. He threw 31 TDs and surpassed 4,000 yards, but he also tossed 25 interceptions. ‘Nuff said.

Except that simply listing off some scream-worthy stats is not enough, because this song is appropriate in yet another way.

Has there ever been a more successful sibling QB tandem in NFL history than Peyton and Eli Manning? They both have Super Bowl rings, so no.

Likewise, has there ever been a more successful sibling pop music tandem in music history than Michael and Janet Jackson? No.

Add it all up and this one just may be the most appropriate song choice of all 32.

———

Michael Vick (PHI) – “Thriller”

Did I say that last song was the most appropriate song choice? It’s only one song later and I’m already re-thinking that bold and possibly foolish statement!

Michael Vick’s name is almost synonymous with the word thriller at this point. What more can I say on this one?

———

Jex Beckman (WAS) – “Who Is It?”

See, I told you the NFC would have 17 QBs rather than 16, and it’s all thanks to Mike Shanahan and the Jon Beck/Rex Grossman duo in Washington (shortened above to “Jex Beckman” because that’s so much more fun). Leave it to Daniel Snyder’s franchise to F it all up.

Despite everyone wondering who is it going to be, Mike Shanahan has not officially named a starting QB for Week 1 as of me writing this. And even when he does name a starter, does anyone think that guy will start all 16 games? Hell no.

As the old saying goes, if you have two quarterbacks you really have none. In the case of the Redskins, that most certainly is the case.

———

NFC North

Aaron Rodgers (GB) – “Billie Jean”

In my opinion, “Billie Jean” is Michael Jackson’s greatest song and Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL (right now), so this really was a perfect song-player match; but the match goes deeper than just that simple association.

Remember when Michael Jackson moonwalked to Billie Jean in 1983 at the Motown 25th Anniversary celebration? It was his coming out party as a solo artist, removed the shadow cast by his brothers, and established him as the King of Pop.

Similarly, when Aaron Rodgers guided the wild card Packers to the Super Bowl last year while playing near-flawless football, it was his coming out party as a superstar QB, removed the shadow of Brett Favre, and established him as the best quarterback going right now.

It was his Billie Jean moment.

This song is so good, as is Rodgers (did you know he has the highest QB rating of all-time?), that it deserves two videos. So here is the official video for “Billie Jean.”

Let me know when you’re done singing, snapping your fingers, and moonwalking around your house or office so we can continue.

…

Okay, onward we proceed.

Matthew Stafford (DET) – Will You Be There?

For the first time since Barry Sanders, there is legitimate, unmockable playoff hope in Detroit. And apparently I’m drinking the silver and blue Kool-Aid, because I predicted that it will happen*.

* – So, for the record, I officially picked the Lions and Texans to make the playoffs in the same season. Had I thought about in those absurd terms when I was making my picks, I doubt I would have gone through with it.

The biggest question mark on the Lions’ roster is their quarterback. Unfortunately, the Lions and their fans have legitimate reason to ask Matthew Stafford every week will you be there on Sunday? Despite his remarkable talent and big contract, he’s only played 13 out of a possible 32 games during his two-year career thus far.

On the plus side, Stafford did have a QB rating of 91.3 and six TDs against only one interception before getting hurt last year. Plus he’s been dynamite this preseason. Simply put, Stafford has to stay healthy and be there on the field for Detroit to have a shot; if he does, he and the young Lions are talented enough to finally be a force to be reckoned with.

———

Jay Cutler (CHI) – “Leave Me Alone”

Jay Cutler is renowned for his rocket arm, but he is not so renowned for his disposition. Of course, as Tom Fornelli points out, who cares if Cutler can be a jerk? If he treats people with a leave me alone attitude and doesn’t always act all Tebow rah-rah on the sidelines, what does it matter if he’s playing in the NFC Championship Game, right?

Hmm…about that whole playing part…

Let’s just say that I bet Jay Cutler wishes people like Maurice Jones-Drew would have kept their mouths shut and left he and his injured knee alone.

———

Donovan McNabb (MIN) – “Remember The Time”

Hey, do you remember the time when Donovan McNabb was one of the best QBs in the NFL? When he was leading the Eagles to NFC Championship Games (and even a Super Bowl) on a regular basis? When he was a perennial Pro Bowler?

Yeah, those were good times. Times the Minnesota Vikings are hoping they can relive this season.

Remembering McNabb’s ill-fated and short-lived tenure in Washington does not inspire much confidence, but hey, Eddie Murphy and Magic Johnson probably thought the same thing when they were pitched the idea for this video, yet it turned out pretty well. Maybe the Vikings 2011 season will as well. (Count Drew among those who thinks it could!)

———

NFC South

Drew Brees (NO) – “Heal The World”

Is any face more synonymous with the rebuilding of New Orleans in the post-Katrina era than that of Drew Brees? I say no.

A quarterback can’t heal the world, but he certainly can help heal a city, especially when he gives his time and resources to help out in the community and raises civic pride by leading the long-suffering home team to a Super Bowl championship.

The best way I can sum up the greatness of Drew Brees is to do so in the spirit of those ubiquitous Dos Equis commercials: I don’t always root for Purdue grads, but when I do, I prefer that they be truly awesome guys on and off the field…like Drew Brees.

Josh Freeman (TB) – “Dangerous”

Pretty easy, obvious one here right? Not only is this guy young, he’s got a strong arm, wheels, and similarly young and talented weapons to grow up with.

If I’m a defensive coordinator in the NFC South, knowing I have to face this guy twice a year for the next decade, there isn’t much I consider more dangerous than Josh Freeman.

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Matt Ryan (ATL) – “Butterflies”

Though Matt Ryan always gets mentioned before Joe Flacco when people list out the best quarterbacks in the NFL, Ryan has won fewer games, completed a lower percentage of his passes, and amassed a lower QB rating then his 2008 draft classmate.

Most importantly, Ryan is 0-2 in the playoffs while Flacco is 4-3. And even though Flacco’s playoff stats are actually more putrid than Ryan’s own putrid playoff stats, we all know that quarterbacks are judged by wins in December, January, and February. So far, Flacco has gotten them. Ryan hasn’t.

So even though people are anointing Matt Ryan as the Next Great NFL QB, he still has to prove he can shake the playoff butterflies, like Aaron Rodgers did last year, before he can truly enter such a discussion.

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Cam Newton (CAR) – “PYT (Pretty Young Thing)”

Some of these were so easy.

“PYT” is a kinetic, upbeat, exciting song…much like Cam Newton is a kinetic, upbeat, exciting QB (who just happens to also have a kinetic, upbeat, exciting smile that will make him a marketing darling should he be able to produce at all on the field).

And is the term “pretty young thing” more appropriate for anything in the NFL than a young QB filled with potential? Nope.

Winning franchises are built around winning QBs, and Cam Newton is the latest #1 draft pick to be his franchise’s pretty young thing upon which it constructs its hopes and expectations of future success.

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NFC West

Alex Smith (SF) – “Never Can Say Goodbye”

The San Francisco 49ers drafted Alex Smith first overall in the 2005 draft. Since then, he has compiled a paltry QB rating of 72.1, has thrown more picks than TDs, and has been yanked in and out of the lineup like a yo-yo. Most importantly, the team has barely sniffed the playoffs during Smith’s time with the franchise.

Yet the 49ers simply never can say goodbye to one of the most disastrous draft choices in franchise history.

With Smith a free agent after last season, the 49ers had a chance to cut the cord for good. They even drafted a potential QB of the future in Colin Kaepernick. But when push came to shove, Smith couldn’t do better than the 49ers and the 49ers couldn’t do better than Smith. So he’s back. Fans of San Fran are just hoping that the final verse of this classic Jackson 5 tune does not prove apropos for 2011:

Keep thinkin’ that our problems,
Soon are all gonna work out,
But there’s that same unhappy feeling,
And there’s that anguish, there’s that doubt…

49ers fans can’t take much more anguish and doubt, but can anything else be expected until, one day, they finally do say goodbye?

Smith has one final shot this year to turn it around. Otherwise it most certainly will mean goodbye, for good, before next year.

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Sam Bradford (STL) – “Hold My Hand”

In college, Sam Bradford completed 67.6% of his passes. This remarkable skill for throwing a football accurately was the main reason he was chosen #1 overall in the 2010 draft. As a rookie, he completed an impressive 60% of his passes, even with top target Mark Clayton getting injured early in the season. He also threw for over 3,500 yards and tossed more TDs than INTs. As a rookie. This is why so many people are predicting a breakout season from Bradford in 2011.

Another reason people are predicting a Bradford breakout is that Josh McDaniels is now coordinating the Rams’ offense. Yes, the same Josh McDaniels who coordinated the Patriots’ record-setting offense during their 18-1 season, and the same Josh McDaniels who made Kyle Orton a fantasy stud during the first half of last season. The man may be an idiot when it comes to personnel decisions, but he can coordinate a passing game.

Despite their lack of familiarity together, if the offensively brilliant McDaniels just says hold my hand to the prodigiously talented Bradford, and if Bradford acquiesces, these two could make sweet music together…kinda like MJ and Akon did.

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Kevin Kolb (ARI) – “You Are Not Alone”

Last year, Larry Fitzgerald must have felt like an NFL wide receiving orphan. He went from having a potential Hall of Famer (Kurt Warner) throwing him on-the-money lasers and playing in the Super Bowl to having a trio of quarterbacking dipshits (Derek Anderson, Max Hall, and John Skelton) tossing him inaccurate ducks while playing musical chairs behind center. Has an elite wide receiver ever felt more alone? That Fitzgerald still caught 90 balls and over 1,000 yards is a testament to his remarkable skills and further emboldened my belief that he’s the best wide receiver in football today.

Enter the unproven but seemingly solid Kevin Kolb, and Fitzgerald has reason to smile again.

The long-rumored acquisition of Kolb by the Cardinals finally happened once the lockout ended, and I’m sure that Kolb’s first words to his new #1 wide receiver were something along the lines of “You are not alone anymore, Larry.” Now all Kolb has to do is live up to the pressure of playing with the league’s best receiver while being paid like a franchise quarterback. Otherwise he’ll be the one feeling alone after the honeymoon period inevitably ends.

But can he?

In limited action, Kolb’s numbers are decidedly Alex Smith-like (73.2 rating, 60.8 completion percentage, 11:14 TD:INT ratio); and those numbers were all accumulated while playing in the passer-friendly system of Andy Reid. So Kolb is far from a slam dunk, but he can’t possibly be worse than Anderson, Hall, or Skelton, whose collective play last year, in comparison to the rest of the QBs in the league, was akin to the difference between the following awful video in comparison to the rest of Michael Jackson’s immaculate video catalog.

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Tarvaris Jackson (SEA) – “Black or White”

No need for me to ramble on and on for this one like I did for Kevin Kolb.

It’s pretty simple: it don’t matter whether Seattle’s QB is black (TJack) or white (Charlie Whitehurst)…the Seahawks are going to suck.

**********

Well, that’s it. I hope you enjoyed this post. I certainly enjoyed writing it. In fact, I’d rank creating this post among the five most entertaining posts I’ve ever had the privilege to create here at MSF. What could be better than listening to an artist I love while doing what I love? Nothing. Nothing at all.

But that doesn’t mean that I got ‘em all right.

• Are there any QB-song matches you disagree with?
• Any you’d switch up?
• Any Michael Jackson classics that you’re pissed didn’t make it and just want to embed the video for all to enjoy?

The comment section awaits.

So get up off the wall and comment!