The BCS bowl games are coming up after the New Year’s Day NFL games Sunday, with the Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl Monday, the Sugar Bowl on Tuesday, the Orange Bowl and on Wednesday and then the BCS National Championship Game the following Monday, January 9th.

Here is a quick preview of the BCS bowl games with picks and current point spreads.

Keep in mind the following:

• All games listed are EST
• Point spreads are of Sunday, January 1st. For updated point spreads and expert advice, here you go: BCS Bowls Odds and Lines

BCS Bowl Games Bettor’s Guide

Point Spreads – Free Picks ATS – Over-Under Odds

TV Schedule – Lock Pick

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Rose Bowl: #10 Wisconsin Badgers vs. #5 Oregon Ducks

• Wisconsin-Oregon Date: Monday, January 2nd at 5:00 PM on ESPN
• Wisconsin-Oregon Point Spread: Ducks -6
• Wisconsin-Oregon Over-Under Odds: 71.5
• Wisconsin-Oregon Spread Pick: Expect a high scoring shootout in what could be the best game of the BCS bowls, as both teams can light up the scoreboard in a hurry. The Badgers rely on the dual passing/rushing threat of QB Russell Wilson  (2,879 yds, 31 TDs, 4 INTs ) and Heisman finalist Montee Ball (1,759 yds, 32TDs).  The Ducks counter with QB Darron Thomas (2,493 yds, 30 TDs, 6 INTs) and Ducks all-time rushing leader LaMichael James (1,646 yds, 17 TDs). Oregon looks to improve on their all-time bowl record of 9-15 and having lost bowl games the past 2 seasons. Wisconsin looks to avenge their Rose Bowl loss last year vs. TCU. Look for the Ducks speed to eventually be too much for the Badgers defense, winning 42-31.
• Pick: Ducks -6

Fiesta Bowl: #4 Stanford Cardinal vs. #3 Oklahoma State Cowboys 

• Stanford-Oklahoma State Date: Monday, January 2nd at 8:30 PM on ESPN
• Stanford-Oklahoma State Point Spread: Cowboys -4
• Stanford-Oklahoma State Over-Under Odds: 73.5
• Stanford-Oklahoma State Spread Pick: Only a devastating 37-31 double overtime loss at Iowa State prevented Oklahoma St. from playing in the BCS Championship Game against LSU. The Cowboys finished their regular season by crushing Oklahoma 44-10. Led by outstanding WR Justin Blackmon (113 rec, 1,336 yds, 15 TDs) and 28-year-old QB Brandon Weeden ( 4,328 yds, 34 TDs), the #3 ranked team in the nation looks to prove it belonged in the BCS title game. Stanford, led by consensus #1 pick in the NFL draft Andrew Luck ( 3,170 yds, 35 TDs) and RB Stepfan Taylor (1,153 yds, 8 TDs), will need to apply the same defensive  pressure on Weeden that has earned them the #6 national ranking with 38 sacks. Look for the Oklahoma St. offense to ultimately take the game over and pull away from Stanford, 45-35.
•  Pick: Cowboys -4  

Sugar Bowl: #13 Michigan vs. #11 Virginia Tech

• Michigan-Virginia Tech Date: Tuesday, January 3rd at 8:30 PM on ESPN
• Michigan-Virginia Tech Point Spread: Wolverines -3
• Michigan-Virginia Tech Over-Under Odds: 50.5
• Michigan-Virginia Tech Spread Pick: Two solid defenses (Virginia Tech-13th nationally, Michigan-18th) and rushing offenses collide in The Superdome in what looks to be a close game. The Wolverines’ star quarterback Denard Robinson (2,056 yds, 18 TDs passing-1,163 yds, 16 TDs rushing) and running back Fitzgerald Toussaint (1,011 yds, 9 TDs) lead a bruising, clock controlling rushing offense. The Hokies are led by ACC player of the year David Wilson (1,627 yds, 9 TDs) and sophomore QB Logan Thomas (2,799 yds, 19 TDs).  Look for the Hokies to rebound from their embarrassing 38-10 loss to Clemson in the ACC title game. Special teams play and a defense keyed on Michigan’s rushing game will pace the Hokies to a 27-19 win.
• Pick: Hokies +3

Orange Bowl: #23 West Virginia vs. #15 Clemson

• West Virginia-Clemson Date: Wednesday, January 4th at 8:30 on ESPN
• West Virginia-Clemson Point Spread: Tigers -3
• West Virginia-Clemson Over-Under Odds: 61.5
• West Virginia-Clemson Spread Pick: In what may be the least attractive BCS bowl game with slow ticket sales in South Florida, the on-field game may turn out to be better than imagined, with two potent offenses both averaging over 33 points per game and 440 yards of offense. West Virginia has the 7th rated passing offense and a 17th rated total offense, led by QB Geno Smith (3,978 yds, 25 TDs, 7 INTs) and WR Stedman Bailey (1,197 yds, 11 TDs). Clemson counters with QB Tajh Boyd (3,578 yds, 31 TDs), RB Andre Ellington (1,062 yds, 10 TDs) and Freshman WR Sammy Watkins (1153 yds, 11 TDs). With more offensive weapons, Clemson eventually pulls away from West Virginia, winning 35-24.
• Pick: Tigers -3

BCS National Championship: #2 Alabama vs. #1 LSU

• Alabama-LSU Date: Monday, January 9th at 8:30 on ESPN
• Alabama-LSU Point Spread: Crimson Tide -1
• Alabama-LSU Over-Under Odds: 40.5
• Alabama-LSU Spread Pick: The rematch between these 2 top defensive squads for the BCS title in New Orleans. No idea why top-ranked LSU is an underdog after winning in OT at Alabama and now playing in what will be a decided home field advantage in The Superdome. Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide ranks first in the country at yards allowed per game (191.3) with LSU #2 allowing 252.1 yards/game. Offensively, LSU ranks #13 in points scored with 38.5 and Alabama ranks #16 with 36 points a game. Crimson Tide is led by Doak Walker award winner Trent Richardson (1,583 yds, 20 TDs) and QB A.J. McCarron (2,400 yds, 16 TDs). Tigers are sparked by dual QBs Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee, who combined for 20 TDs and nearly 2,000 yards and RBs Michael Ford (755 yds, 7 TDs) and Spender Ware (700 yds, 8 TDs). Points will be at a premium for this game, which is where LSU Heisman finalist Tyrann Mathieu comes in to play with his knack making big plays as a punt returner. Look for the Tiger’s to claim the national title in convincing fashion, pulling away from the Crimson Tide in the 2nd half 27-10.
• Pick: Tigers +1

Lock Pick: LSU +1

Cotton Bowl Bonus Lock Pick: Friday, January 6th 8:00 PM on Fox. Arkansas -8 vs. Kansas State. No way Wildcats can hang with Razorbacks in this one. Arkansas 44 Kansas State 23.

Enjoy your 2012 BCS Bowl Games!

(And courtesy of our friends at Verizon, you have a chance to win four free tickets to the game, but you need to act quickly. Click here.)

Wisconsin and Michigan State also have quite a bit of excitement in their recent history against each other, courtesy of Spartans’ quarterback Kirk Cousins’ Hail Mary touchdown pass to Keith Nichol as time expired to beat the Badgers in East Lansing on October 22.

That game was the most thrilling game of the Big Ten’s conference season, so it’s only fitting that these two teams get a chance to go at it again, this time on the neutral field of Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

A trip to the Rose Bowl is the prize, and we can only hope the game comes close to the drama of the first matchup.

Things to consider for Saturday

It’s hard to imagine a more exciting game than the one we saw last month featuring these eventual division winners, but all of the things that made that game so great are still in play for this weekend.

In that game, Wisconsin came out hot on the road, scoring on their opening drive and again after a Michigan State fumble, to open up a 14-0 lead after the first quarter.

We can only hope for another moment this exciting.

Michigan State responded by forcing Wisconsin quarterback Russell Wilson into an intentional grounding penalty in his own end zone, which gave the Spartans a safety and their first points.  From then on, the rest of the first half belonged to Michigan State, as they scored 3 consecutive touchdowns (KeShawn Martin rush, Cousins to B.J. Cunningham pass, blocked punt return) to lead 23-14 at the half.

In the 4th quarter, Michigan State scored again on a 15-yard pass from Cousins to Martin, and added a two-point conversion to go up 14.  Wisconsin wouldn’t stay down long, scoring 2 unanswered touchdowns to tie the game and set up the game’s final play.

With 4 seconds left, Cousins launched a prayer of a pass that bounced off the facemask of star receiver Cunningham, only to land in the arms of Nichol for a touchdown and the win.

Following that game, both teams had moments where they played uneven football.  Wisconsin’s only other conference loss came the very next week against Ohio State in Columbus.  That game featured another late breakdown by the Badgers, as they allowed a game-winning 40-yard touchdown pass with just 20 seconds left.  Wisconsin was never threatened again, though; they won their final four Big Ten games by a total score of 177-54 (including a 45-7 drubbing of Penn State last week in which a spot in the conference championship was on the line) on their way to winning the Leaders division.

Michigan State also stumbled the week after the thriller against Wisconsin in East Lansing, falling at Nebraska 24-3 in their worst offensive showing of the season.  The Spartans gained just 187 yards of total offense in Lincoln, but rebounded with 4 consecutive wins of their own to clinch the Legends division.

What Wisconsin must do to win

Running back Montee Ball, who some have argued should have a shot at the Heisman (I agree), had his worst two rushing yardage totals in conference play against Michigan State (18 carries, 115 yards) and Ohio State (17 carries, 85 yards).

Clearly, as Ball goes, the Badgers go.

If they want to avoid a repeat of the East Lansing game, they will get Ball involved and force the Spartans to stop him.  He ran effectively in the first game, but 18 carries is not enough.  If Ball gets 25-30 touches and the massive Wisconsin offensive line can hold the Spartan front at bay, the Badgers will control the clock and win the game.

Wisconsin’s defense hasn’t struggled against anyone like they did against Cousins and the Spartans.  Cousins was having a good game even before the last-second scoring pass, but Wisconsin seems to have righted the ship in their last 4 games.  Granted, Purdue, Minnesota, Illinois and Penn State don’t offer nearly the same caliber of offense as Michigan State, but it seems that Wisconsin has toughened up.  Holding Cunningham in check will be key, and they must also watch for KeShawn Martin on reverses and trick plays.  He is an elusive ball carrier who can turn a single missed tackle into a touchdown.

Wisconsin does a great job protecting the ball, and they will need to do that again this week.  Wilson threw 2 interceptions in the last Wisconsin-Michigan State game, which is uncharacteristic of him.  It is vital for Wisconsin to not give Michigan State any easy opportunities.  This includes special teams, where they allowed Michigan State to score a touchdown off a blocked punt and also allowed a blocked field goal.  Wilson’s safety via intentional grounding also occurred because of a Michigan State punt that started the Badgers at their own 5-yard line.

What Michigan State must do to win

The Spartans' defense will be tested Saturday night.

Despite getting the win on a Hail Mary that defied all odds, a lot of things went right for Michigan State last time against Wisconsin.  They forced two Wilson turnovers, had several key special teams plays, and were able to throw the ball with great success.  They will need more of the same to hope to win the Big Ten and get to Pasadena.

For Michigan State, everything starts on defense.  They are 11th in the FBS against the run, but perhaps no running back can abuse a defense like Montee Ball.  In the first meeting, they allowed Ball to go for 115 yards; if they allow him 6.4 yards per carry like this time like they did then, they will have trouble.  I expect Ball to receive a healthier workload this time around, so it’s up to defensive tackle Jerel Worthy and end William Gholston (who was suspended for the first Wisconsin game) to limit his effectiveness.

Of course, stacking the line to stop the run may allow Wilson to get loose, which is just as dangerous.  Last time, the second of Wilson’s two interceptions allowed Michigan State to hold off a scoring drive that might have iced the game for Wisconsin.  The Spartans must force a turnover or two in order to win this game.

B.J. Cunningham (67 catches, 1125 yards, 9 TD) is the clear star of the receiving corps, but it is KeShawn Martin who intrigues me most.  I would like to see Michigan State get him the ball in a variety of ways, including bubble screens, reverses and end-arounds.  He can big play ability, and they will need a few big plays to beat the Badgers.

Big Ten Championship Game Prediction

I think almost everything that could have gone right for Michigan State in the final three quarters of the first matchup, did go right.  Even though they enter as the team with only one Big Ten loss to Wisconsin’s two, I see the Badgers winning this game.

The combination of Montee Ball’s brilliance and Russell Wilson’s efficiency will be too much, and I think that Michigan State will have much more trouble passing the ball this time.

Final Score: Wisconsin 38 | Michigan State 24

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Big Ten Championship Game Info

• Wisconsin-Michigan State Date: Saturday, December 3rd
• Wisconsin-Michigan State Kickoff Time: 8:17 PM EST
• Wisconsin-Michigan State Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
• Wisconsin-Michigan State TV: FOX
• Wisconsin-Michigan State Point Spread: Wisconsin -10
• Wisconsin-Michigan State Over/Under: 54.5

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Oh, and the great link of all: things that are tougher than Adam James. It’s priceless.

Everything:

• A pretty damn comprehensive look back at the year in the sports — (FanSided)

College Football:

• What We Learned From the Fiesta Bowl — (Bootlegger Sports)
• Fiesta Bowl Full of Funny — (Detroit 4 Lyfe)
• Erin Andrews nearly gets tackled during Fiesta Bowl — (NESW Sports)
• Tailgating, Rose Bowl Style — (Thunder Treats)
• Awesome! Things tougher than Adam James — (TideSports.com Forum)

NFL:

• The biggest flops of the 2009-2010 NFL season — (Rumors and Rants)
• Chad Ochocino hooks Fireman Ed up with a trip to Cincy — (Steady Burn)
• Wild Card Weekend: Re-Run Style — (Global Sports Fraternity)
• Cowboys-Eagles Part II – (Dallas Sports Fans)

College Basketball:

• How good does that IU victory over Pitt look now? — (Post-Gazette)

NBA:

• Even Pau Gasol has an impersonator – (That NBA Lottery Pick)

NHL:

• Rapping About the Washington Capitols — (Outside the Box Score)

Misc:

• How Do You Hire? — (Small Hands, Big Ideas)
• Building a Compliance Program Part I: Developing a Risk Profile and Risk Management Program — (CCI)
• Building a Network Using Social Media — (How-to-Blog.tv)

Championship Saturday has ended, which means the BCS projections are pretty much set. Check out the updated BCS projections.

I was trying to figure out in my own mind what all of the BCS scenarios are and who will be playing who. So, while I go through the process of figuring it out, I’ll just type a post and share my knowledge.

First, here are the updated BCS Standings going into the conference championship games:

BCS Standings

And now, the BCS schedule, with tie-ins:

January 1, 2009 – Rose Bowl presented by Citi in Pasadena, CA | Big Ten Champ vs Pac 10 Champ

January 1, 2009 – FedEx Orange Bowl in Miami, FL | ACC Champ vs BCS At-Large

January 2, 2009 – AllState Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA | SEC Champ vs BCS At-Large

January 5, 2009 – Tostitos Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, AZ | Big 12 Champ vs BCS At-Large

January 8, 2009 – FexEx BCS National Championship Game in Miami, FL | BCS #1 v BCS #2

Let’s take a look at some of the scenarios:

The winner of the SEC title game between Florida and Alabama will almost assuredly play in the BCS Title game against either Oklahoma (if they win the Big 12 Title game) or Texas (if Oklahoma should lose to Missouri in the Big 12 Title game).

I don’t really see any way that the BCS National Championship game is not the SEC winner versus either Oklahoma or Texas. And that is how it should be.

With the way Oklahoma is playing right now, and considering that Missouri just lost to Kansas, I think it is a safe assumption that Oklahoma will win the Big 12. (Well, at least as safe as any assumption can be in college football. And Missouri knows what that’s like in the Big 12 title game.)

If Oklahoma wins, the BCS will most likely look like this:

BCS National Championship: Oklahoma versus Alabama/Florida winner

Fiesta Bowl: At-Large vs At-Large

Sugar Bowl: At-Large vs At-Large

Orange Bowl: Boston College/Virginia Tech winner in ACC title game vs At-Large

Rose Bowl: Penn State vs USC

Because the Fiesta Bowl is played closest to the National Championship game, it gets the first pick of replacement team (since the Big 12 champ would be in the BCS National Championship game). I am thinking that the Fiesta Bowl would take Texas and then match them up with Penn State. Those traveling fan bases talk baby!

The Sugar Bowl would then pick next, and they would take the SEC #2, whoever loses between Alabama and Florida…

and I’m spent. I just spent the last fifteen minutes toggling back and forth between writing this and trying to figure out all of the different rules for how the BCS teams are chosen, and my head hurts. I am officially calling this Reason #4,672 why we need a playoff!

How about this? Take the top 8 damn teams (Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas, Florida, USC, Utah, Texas Tech, Penn State) and let them duke it out in an Elite 8 tourney for the champion. Want to cry because the ACC isn’t represented? Too bad. The highest rated ACC team is Georgia Tech and they are 15th. If your conference sucks so bad that you don’t have a team in the top 8, then you’re screwed. Or if you need to appease the ACC, then give them an automatic tie-in for the conference champ and bump out the lowest rated team that didn’t win its conference. In this case, Texas Tech would be gone.

Now we would have (if the standings stayed as they are now):

1 Alabama/Florida vs 8 ACC Champion

2 Oklahoma/Texas vs 7 Penn State

3 Oklahoma/Texas vs 6 Utah

4 Alabama/Florida vs 5 USC

You would need two more games so add in the Cotton Bowl and another bowl and then the teams can decide it on the field. Why is it so hard to make this happen??? I just don’t get it.

For anyone who came to this post looking for a detailed explanation of the potential BCS scenarios, you have my apologies. If you’d like to figure it out on your own, here you go:

BCS Selection Procedures

Good luck.

I’m glad I went through this little exercise. The BCS National Championship game will be the champions of the two best conferences, so that is good. And the Rose Bowl will be the Big 10 champ and the Pac 10 champ, so that is good.

Still, try telling me that an 8-game playoff wouldn’t be infinitely more exciting. I just don’t see any reasonable argument to the contrary.

F$&k the BCS!

This post was written a few weeks ago, and included the wishful thinking of an Ohio State fan who wanted the Buckeyes to make it to the Rose Bowl. Follow the link to view the 2008 college football schedule, which will be filled in with all the matchups once they are set.  You can also view the updated BCS Bowl projections, with Ohio State likely going to the Fiesta Bowl.

We are down to the final two weeks of Big Ten football play and I am pretty sure every fan believes their team underachieved this year. This probably doesn’t include Michigan State, Northwestern and Minnesota but all three got destroyed by Ohio State (30 plus point losses). All three teams probably lost a lot of their fan base before this year. Speaking of losing a fan base, I look at Indiana and Purdue in last place and Notre Dame barely bowl eligible and Ball State is the only exciting team in Indiana.

Anyway, moving on to the top of the Big Ten we virtually have a three way tie for first. Michigan State sits atop at 6-1 and they have a bye this week to prepare to go to Happy Valley for the Penn State rivalry game November 22nd.

Penn State is playing at home against IU this weekend and it could get ugly since they are coming off the last second FG loss at Iowa. The sports media world took a collective sigh of relief because they were not ready to cover a national championship game where a Big Ten champ gets their asses handed to them for a third straight year. Plus one model should be the motto for the future of the Big Ten conference so they can have a championship game.

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes go to Illinois for a noon game (ESPN) and they have revenge on their minds after last year’s 28-21 loss in Columbus. The Illibuck Trophy is up for grabs in Champaign which will be playing in freezing temperatures, maybe some flurries, before they get the Wolverines at home in The Game November 22nd. Now on to Bowl projections:

ROSE BOWL (Jan 1st) – Ohio State v. USC - The Buckeyes have a not so outside shot at a rematch against USC with a Michigan State win at Penn State. If the Spartans do win, Ohio State couldn’t be happier going to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1997 when they beat Jake “The Snake” Plummer’s Arizona State team 20-17. If Penn State wins out look for the Buckeyes to be in the BCS at-large game (Fiesta or Sugar) against maybe Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Utah, or even Ball State.

CAPITAL ONE BOWL (Jan 1st) – Michigan State v. Georgia - The Spartan faithful would enjoy a trip to the Capital One Bowl with a win at Happy Valley. Javon Ringer would go pro after this game if can run wild on the recently porous Georgia defense. The last four #2 Big Ten v. #2 SEC match ups have gone to the Big Ten squad in this January 1st Bowl game. Michigan, Wisconsin, Wisconsin, and Iowa over Florida, Arkansas, Auburn, and LSU respectively.

OUTBACK BOWL (Jan 1st) – Penn State v. South Carolina – Joe Pa versus the Ol’ Ball Coach. Sounds ironic considering Spurrier is about 30 years younger right? Anyway, who knows who will show up in this 11am New Years Day bowl. Then again it is premature to discuss this potential game two weeks before the season is over and since I am probably underestimating Penn State who could get their starting QB back for the MSU game.

ALAMO BOWL (Dec 29th) – Iowa v. Missouri - Most would look at the QB match up here and would check the spread for Chase Daniel’s Tigers, bet their savings, and laugh all the way home. But Kirk Ferentz’s Hawkeyes always stay competitive (or win) in these Bowl games that they are supposed to be over matched. They almost beat Texas last year, came close to Florida before that, and beat LSU and Florida respectively the previous years before the close losses.

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL (Dec 29th) – Northwestern v. Miami (FL) - Two private schools, North versus South (or Thugs vs. Dorks whichever you prefer). Both programs are young and on the rise so if they meet here, the winner could build off the momentum and be pretty tough next year. The loser could as well.

INSIGHT BOWL (Dec 31st) – Illinois v. Nebraska - This is a coin flip between Minnesota and Illinois but I think Illinois will get the nod based off of fan base. It is unbelievable to me that the Fighting Zooks even have a chance to make a bowl after tanking it against WESTERN Michigan last weekend. Illinois has to beat Ohio State or Northwestern to even become eligible.

MOTOR CITY BOWL (Dec 27th) – Minnesota v. Ball State - The Gophers had a pretty good year but a lot of their Bowl eligibility has to do with a horrible non-conference schedule. Ball State is probably better than their non-conference and half of their Big Ten schedule. If Ball State runs the table while Utah and Texas Tech lose, then you would see Ball U in a BCS game and Central Michigan here against Minnesota.