Updated BCS Standings and BCS Projections

Championship Saturday has ended, which means the BCS projections are pretty much set. Check out the updated BCS projections.

I was trying to figure out in my own mind what all of the BCS scenarios are and who will be playing who. So, while I go through the process of figuring it out, I’ll just type a post and share my knowledge.

First, here are the updated BCS Standings going into the conference championship games:

BCS Standings

And now, the BCS schedule, with tie-ins:

January 1, 2009 – Rose Bowl presented by Citi in Pasadena, CA | Big Ten Champ vs Pac 10 Champ

January 1, 2009 – FedEx Orange Bowl in Miami, FL | ACC Champ vs BCS At-Large

January 2, 2009 – AllState Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA | SEC Champ vs BCS At-Large

January 5, 2009 – Tostitos Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, AZ | Big 12 Champ vs BCS At-Large

January 8, 2009 – FexEx BCS National Championship Game in Miami, FL | BCS #1 v BCS #2

Let’s take a look at some of the scenarios:

The winner of the SEC title game between Florida and Alabama will almost assuredly play in the BCS Title game against either Oklahoma (if they win the Big 12 Title game) or Texas (if Oklahoma should lose to Missouri in the Big 12 Title game).

I don’t really see any way that the BCS National Championship game is not the SEC winner versus either Oklahoma or Texas. And that is how it should be.

With the way Oklahoma is playing right now, and considering that Missouri just lost to Kansas, I think it is a safe assumption that Oklahoma will win the Big 12. (Well, at least as safe as any assumption can be in college football. And Missouri knows what that’s like in the Big 12 title game.)

If Oklahoma wins, the BCS will most likely look like this:

BCS National Championship: Oklahoma versus Alabama/Florida winner

Fiesta Bowl: At-Large vs At-Large

Sugar Bowl: At-Large vs At-Large

Orange Bowl: Boston College/Virginia Tech winner in ACC title game vs At-Large

Rose Bowl: Penn State vs USC

Because the Fiesta Bowl is played closest to the National Championship game, it gets the first pick of replacement team (since the Big 12 champ would be in the BCS National Championship game). I am thinking that the Fiesta Bowl would take Texas and then match them up with Penn State. Those traveling fan bases talk baby!

The Sugar Bowl would then pick next, and they would take the SEC #2, whoever loses between Alabama and Florida…

and I’m spent. I just spent the last fifteen minutes toggling back and forth between writing this and trying to figure out all of the different rules for how the BCS teams are chosen, and my head hurts. I am officially calling this Reason #4,672 why we need a playoff!

How about this? Take the top 8 damn teams (Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas, Florida, USC, Utah, Texas Tech, Penn State) and let them duke it out in an Elite 8 tourney for the champion. Want to cry because the ACC isn’t represented? Too bad. The highest rated ACC team is Georgia Tech and they are 15th. If your conference sucks so bad that you don’t have a team in the top 8, then you’re screwed. Or if you need to appease the ACC, then give them an automatic tie-in for the conference champ and bump out the lowest rated team that didn’t win its conference. In this case, Texas Tech would be gone.

Now we would have (if the standings stayed as they are now):

1 Alabama/Florida vs 8 ACC Champion

2 Oklahoma/Texas vs 7 Penn State

3 Oklahoma/Texas vs 6 Utah

4 Alabama/Florida vs 5 USC

You would need two more games so add in the Cotton Bowl and another bowl and then the teams can decide it on the field. Why is it so hard to make this happen??? I just don’t get it.

For anyone who came to this post looking for a detailed explanation of the potential BCS scenarios, you have my apologies. If you’d like to figure it out on your own, here you go:

BCS Selection Procedures

Good luck.

I’m glad I went through this little exercise. The BCS National Championship game will be the champions of the two best conferences, so that is good. And the Rose Bowl will be the Big 10 champ and the Pac 10 champ, so that is good.

Still, try telling me that an 8-game playoff wouldn’t be infinitely more exciting. I just don’t see any reasonable argument to the contrary.

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F$&k the BCS!

Big Ten Bowl Projections | Buckeyes Rose Bowl Scenario

This post was written a few weeks ago, and included the wishful thinking of an Ohio State fan who wanted the Buckeyes to make it to the Rose Bowl. Follow the link to view the 2008 college football schedule, which will be filled in with all the matchups once they are set.  You can also view the updated BCS Bowl projections, with Ohio State likely going to the Fiesta Bowl.

We are down to the final two weeks of Big Ten football play and I am pretty sure every fan believes their team underachieved this year. This probably doesn’t include Michigan State, Northwestern and Minnesota but all three got destroyed by Ohio State (30 plus point losses). All three teams probably lost a lot of their fan base before this year. Speaking of losing a fan base, I look at Indiana and Purdue in last place and Notre Dame barely bowl eligible and Ball State is the only exciting team in Indiana.

Anyway, moving on to the top of the Big Ten we virtually have a three way tie for first. Michigan State sits atop at 6-1 and they have a bye this week to prepare to go to Happy Valley for the Penn State rivalry game November 22nd.

Penn State is playing at home against IU this weekend and it could get ugly since they are coming off the last second FG loss at Iowa. The sports media world took a collective sigh of relief because they were not ready to cover a national championship game where a Big Ten champ gets their asses handed to them for a third straight year. Plus one model should be the motto for the future of the Big Ten conference so they can have a championship game.

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes go to Illinois for a noon game (ESPN) and they have revenge on their minds after last year’s 28-21 loss in Columbus. The Illibuck Trophy is up for grabs in Champaign which will be playing in freezing temperatures, maybe some flurries, before they get the Wolverines at home in The Game November 22nd. Now on to Bowl projections:

ROSE BOWL (Jan 1st) – Ohio State v. USC - The Buckeyes have a not so outside shot at a rematch against USC with a Michigan State win at Penn State. If the Spartans do win, Ohio State couldn’t be happier going to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1997 when they beat Jake “The Snake” Plummer’s Arizona State team 20-17. If Penn State wins out look for the Buckeyes to be in the BCS at-large game (Fiesta or Sugar) against maybe Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Utah, or even Ball State.

CAPITAL ONE BOWL (Jan 1st) – Michigan State v. Georgia - The Spartan faithful would enjoy a trip to the Capital One Bowl with a win at Happy Valley. Javon Ringer would go pro after this game if can run wild on the recently porous Georgia defense. The last four #2 Big Ten v. #2 SEC match ups have gone to the Big Ten squad in this January 1st Bowl game. Michigan, Wisconsin, Wisconsin, and Iowa over Florida, Arkansas, Auburn, and LSU respectively.

OUTBACK BOWL (Jan 1st) – Penn State v. South Carolina – Joe Pa versus the Ol’ Ball Coach. Sounds ironic considering Spurrier is about 30 years younger right? Anyway, who knows who will show up in this 11am New Years Day bowl. Then again it is premature to discuss this potential game two weeks before the season is over and since I am probably underestimating Penn State who could get their starting QB back for the MSU game.

ALAMO BOWL (Dec 29th) – Iowa v. Missouri - Most would look at the QB match up here and would check the spread for Chase Daniel’s Tigers, bet their savings, and laugh all the way home. But Kirk Ferentz’s Hawkeyes always stay competitive (or win) in these Bowl games that they are supposed to be over matched. They almost beat Texas last year, came close to Florida before that, and beat LSU and Florida respectively the previous years before the close losses.

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL (Dec 29th) – Northwestern v. Miami (FL) - Two private schools, North versus South (or Thugs vs. Dorks whichever you prefer). Both programs are young and on the rise so if they meet here, the winner could build off the momentum and be pretty tough next year. The loser could as well.

INSIGHT BOWL (Dec 31st) – Illinois v. Nebraska - This is a coin flip between Minnesota and Illinois but I think Illinois will get the nod based off of fan base. It is unbelievable to me that the Fighting Zooks even have a chance to make a bowl after tanking it against WESTERN Michigan last weekend. Illinois has to beat Ohio State or Northwestern to even become eligible.

MOTOR CITY BOWL (Dec 27th) – Minnesota v. Ball State - The Gophers had a pretty good year but a lot of their Bowl eligibility has to do with a horrible non-conference schedule. Ball State is probably better than their non-conference and half of their Big Ten schedule. If Ball State runs the table while Utah and Texas Tech lose, then you would see Ball U in a BCS game and Central Michigan here against Minnesota.