One, you are in your league’s championship round and looking for some advice as you try to make the most important lineup decisions of the season. We congratulate you, and we’re here for you. Skip ahead and start soaking in the analysis as you go for your league’s equivalent of The Shiva.

Two, you are in your league’s semifinal round, which means that you play your championship in Week 17. We’re still happy to help you make lineup decisions, but just know that we vehemently disagree with how your league is setup and blame you personally for going along with it.

Or three, you are devastated after a bad beat in Week 15 and engaging in the masochistic act of still reading fantasy football analysis even though you have nothing left to play for. This is pathetic and you should should be ashamed of yourself. Get over it man (or woman). Still though, we feel your pain. We’ve been there. So we welcome your wandering eyes as well.

I suppose you could also be in some kind of keeper league that uses the consolation bracket to help determine next year’s draft order (something we do highly encourage as a great idea) or a league in which money is doled out for third place (a less great idea). Either way, we group you with the first set of folks who still need advice even in Week 16.

Okay, onto this week’s Start/Sit picks…for anyone and everyone who may have stumbled upon this post today.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em QB – Matt Moore

Matt Moor-ino has been very solid the past seven games for which he’s been healthy, putting up at least 13 points in six of them. He’s not at all a high-profile name, but if you don’t have a top 12 QB, or Tim Tebow, I would look at giving Moore the nod in Week 16.

His best WR, Brandon Marshall, has been a TD-machine as of late, and they will also be playing the porous New England passing defense.

If you don’t have another option, look at Moore. You might even be able to pick him up off of the waiver wire.

Matt Moore fantasy football Week 16 projection: 285 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 30 yards rushing

Other Start Em QBs:

• Tim Tebow – On the road in Buffalo…depending on weather…he may RUSH for 100 yards…and throw in a few TDs as well.
• Mike Vick and Tony Romo – Let’s just say, I don’t think there will be a lot of great defense in this game on Saturday.

Sit Em – Ryan Fitzpatrick

Hopefully, you got off of the Fitzpatrick bandwagon in week six…but he is still the #12 ranked fantasy QB and presents a LITTLE value from week to week based on matchups.

Not this week.

The Denver defense is incredibly over-rated (They are ranked 22nd overall, Tebow-haters. That’s a fact. Don’t try to argue against it.), but they have been much better against mediocre offenses. Fitzpatrick should have plenty of trouble against Denver’s speedy linebackers. Most of Buffalo’s offense has come on the ground lately, anyways…don’t expect that to change in week 16.

Ryan Fitzpatrick fantasy football Week 16 projection: 225 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other Sit Em QBs:

• Andy Dalton – This is not your “beginning-of-the-year-Cardinals-secondary” (stats forthcoming).
• Carson Palmer – We should all just sit him out of principle at this point, don’t you think?

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em RB – CJ Spiller

Spiller has had GREAT days two of the last three weeks, including his monstrous 28-point performance last week. If the weather is bad in Buffalo this weekend, look for Spiller to have another breakout.

On wet/slippery/cold fields, the offense ALWAYS has the advantage – especially shifty playmakers like CJ Spiller.

CJ Spiller fantasy football Week 16 projection: 75 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 50 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other Start Em RBs:

• Kendall Hunter – Look for Hunter (who has looked absolutely AWESOME at times) to carry a little larger load down the stretch run of the season as Jim Harbaugh tries to keep Frank Gore fresh for the post-season.
• DeAngelo Williams – Favorable matchup against Tampa Bay, and plus, doesn’t he seem to KILL everybody in the fantasy playoffs like every single year?

Sit Em RB – Marshawn Lynch

Man. What a tough one. I absolutely LOVE Beast Mode. He’s been an absolute fantasy stud the past several weeks. This brings us to the age-old quandary, “Do you play the stud, or do you sit him because of the matchup?”

98% of the time, I would say you should always play the stud. But this year’s San Francisco run defense is FAR from ordinary. Through 14 weeks games, they have not allowed one single rushing touchdown all year!

It’s possible you have NO other options at RB and are forced to start Lynch, but if you have 2 or 3 other guys you like, don’t hesitate to sit Lynch against one of the best run defenses ever – that’s not hyperbole.

Marshawn Lynch fantasy football Week 16 projection: 60 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 12 receiving yards, 0 TDs

Other Sit Em RBs:

• Mike Tolbert – I think Mathews gets most of the touches this week.
• Ryan Grant – The Bears’ defense is great, and they will keep Grant blocked in all day.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em WRs

Start Em WR – Plaxico Burress

A complete hunch…but I think this is one of those weeks where he has like 4 catches for 28 yards…and TWO touchdowns.

He’s been pretty quiet lately, and the Giants will definitely be focusing on stopping the Jets’ running game. I think the Jets will counter by trying to give Sanchez some easier throws…and as bad as he is at times, Sanchez can throw that fade on the sideline very well. Look for Plax to get several looks in the red zone this week.

Plaxico Burress fantasy football Week 16 projection: 4 receptions, 28 yards, 2 TDs

Other Start Em WRs:

• DeSean Jackson, Laurent Robinson, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant – Yes, I’m predicting at least 10 points for ALL of these WRs this week.
• DeMariyus Thomas – He’s actually the #1 WR in fantasy over the last three weeks. Tebow loves him, and he should have another good day in Buffalo this week.
• Victor Cruz – Read below.

Sit Em WR – Hakeem Nicks

Darrelle Revis is an awesome CB…but he’s slightly less awesome when he has to move inside and cover the slot WR. I expect Revis to stay outside and try to shut down the Giants’ deep threat this week. Victor Cruz will be the primary beneficiary as Eli will have to check down to him constantly.

Nicks MIGHT get free on one or two deep balls, but if he doesn’t (or if he drops them when perfectly thrown, like he did last week), he will be a fantasy disappointment in Week 16.

Hakeem Nicks fantasy football Week 16 projection: 4 receptions, 45 yards, 0 TDs

Other Sit Em WRs:

• Brandon Lloyd – Against Pittsburgh AND he’s banged up AND the Rams have QB issues.
• Reggie Wayne – I’m finally turning on him…he’s just nothing without Peyton Manning. It’s a good thing it took me sixteen weeks…

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em TEs

Start Em Tight End – Greg Olsen

Cam LOVES his tight ends in the red zone, and look for Olsen to be the recipient this week.

Greg Olsen fantasy football Week 16 projection: 3 receptions, 40 yards, 1 TD

Sit Em Tight End – Owen Daniels

The big fella is banged up, and I expect Houston to pull him as soon as they can tonight against the Colts. If they get up big, look for all of Houston’s studs to sit.

Owen Daniels fantasy football Week 16 projection: 2 receptions, 25 yards, 0 TDs

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em D/STs

Start Em Defense – ARIZONA CARDINALS

This is my game-changing pick of the week.

Did you know that the Cardinals defense has been improving all year, and that in the last seven weeks, they have only allowed EIGHT touchdowns.

I’ll let you guess where that ranks, league-wide.

Anyway, they will be playing a good Cincinnati team, but a team whose offense is definitely not “lights out” by any means.

If you don’t have one of the top three defenses, go ahead and swoop up the Arizona defense…to the surprise of everyone. And then dominate them this week to win your league.

Sit Em Defense – Detroit

All flash, no substance…especially against a rejuvenated San Diego offense. I would stay away from BOTH defenses in this game.

**********

Best of luck in Week 16 everyone! We’ll be here all week answering questions in the comment section, and we will have our weekly live chat on Saturday this week. We’ll see you then!

Did you miss me?

Jon has himself a busy schedule this week, so he texted me this morning and asked if I’d be up for reprising my role as the author of our weekly Start/Sit column here at MSF. I have to admit, as soon as I saw his text I was pretty pumped.

Doing these posts every week, week after week, can admittedly be a bit of a grind, as I learned over the last couple of years; so I was happy to let Jon take it over this year and focus my efforts in other areas. But I’ve missed the weekly challenge of poring over matchups and stats and trends to figure out which players to recommend to you as starts and sits.

So it’s good to be back in the saddle.

Anyway, It’s not like I’ve been totally absent. I still offer commentary on Jon’s posts, answer questions in the comment sections, and monitor the @FantasyMSF Twitter account. So I haven’t really given you a chance to miss me even if you wanted to. Now though, for the first time all year, I have to go on record with start and sit picks.

I’m ready. Let’s roll.

First up, let’s take a quick old school look back at how Jon did with his top-line start/sit picks last week:

• Start ‘em hits: Ben Roethlisberger, Dwayne Bowe, Fred Davis
• Start ‘em misses: Ryan Torain
• Sit ‘em hits: Vincent Jackson, Willis McGahee, Dustin Keller
• Sit ‘em misses: Cam Newton

Other suggestions he was slam-dunk correct on: sit Philip Rivers and Kevin Kolb; sit Larry Fitgerald and Brandon Lloyd

Other suggestions he was dead wrong on: start Matt Hasselbeck; sit Mark Sanchez; sit Jonathan Stewart; that Visanthe Shiancoe would be the “worst” tight end

Overall, a decent week for Jon. His top-line picks were solid, but some of his bolder “other” suggestions went awry. Jon has had a very strong track record this season though, so the bar is high for my relief appearance.

Here are my thoughts on who you should start and who you should sit in Week 8.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em
Lineup Advice and Projections

Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 8:

• Falcons
• Bears
• Packers
• Jets
• Raiders
• Buccaneers

Several startable QBs are out this week (Rodgers, Ryan, Freeman), as are some RBs that teams have come to count on (Turner, Forte, DMC), and some top flight WRs (R. White and the Packers crew, among many others). That means that not only do you need to bone up on your waiver wire knowledge, you need to be prepared to make the key start/sit decisions at the fringes of your roster that will be the difference between winning and losing.

Lucky for you, that’s why we’re here.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em Picks: Quarterbacks

Start ‘Em QB: Joe Flacco, Baltimore (v Arizona)

Know that I am currently writing this at 6:23 pm Central time on Monday evening. So the Monday night game between Baltimore and Jacksonville hasn’t even started. Thus, there is a chance that Flacco throws up one of his patented stinkers tonight against Jacksonville’s better-than-you-think pass defense (210 yards per game, 9 TDs heading into week 7).

Even if he does, I don’t care. You start him against Arizona and expect top 5 stats.

Here are some numbers:

• Cam Newton: 422 yards
• Rex Grossman: 291 yards
• Eli Manning: 321 yards
• Ben Roethlisberger: 361 yards

These are the yardage numbers that four of the Cardinals’ opponents have hung on their pass D this year. The two I left out were Minnesota and Seattle, because neither team had competent quarterbacking when they faced the Cardinals. Joe Flacco may not be a superstar, but he is certainly competent, and he has been a guy in the past who has put up huge numbers against inferior defenses. Consider his performance against St. Louis earlier this year, one of the few pass defenses that could be considered as bad as Arizona’s: 389 yards, 3 TDs for Flacco.

Flacco’s overall numbers are somewhat depressed by some tough matchups early in the season (Jets, Texans, Titans when they were actually trying), but don’t forget that this is a guy who has tossed at least 21 TD passes the last two seasons and who tends to get them in bunches when they come. This week will be one of those weeks when they come in bunches. Start Flacco.

Joe Flacco fantasy football Week 8 projection: 275 yards, 3 TDs

Other start ‘em QBs for Week Eight:

• Eli Manning isn’t sexy from a fantasy perspective, but you can win with him. And you can certainly win with him when he has tasty matchups like the one he has this week against Miami.
• You realize Cam Newton is a top 10 option at QB now, right? Okay, just checking. Make sure he’s in your lineup.

Sit ‘Em QB: Tim Tebow, Denver (v Detroit)

Yep, I’m going to throw some cold water on Tebowmania.

Despite finishing with respectable fantasy numbers in Week 7 (2 TDs, 200+ total yards), you really have to have watched the full game to put those numbers into context. Through 55 minutes, Tebow was hovering around negative fantasy points when you take into account his fumble, but then he led a furious five minute comeback that included most of his passing yards and both of his TDs.

A few things to keep in mind as you analyze Tebow’s chances against Detroit:

• Miami has given up 12 TD passes and picked off only two through six games, so the matchup was very favorable. Detroit, on the other hand, gives up barely 200 passing yards per game, has picked off opposing QBs ten times, and has allowed only 8 TD passes in 7 games. This matchup is not favorable.
• Miami only had eight sacks coming into Week 7 before amassing seven against on Tebow. Detroit has 17 sacks in 7 games thanks to a ferocious defensive line that makes indecisive quarterbacks pay. Tebow looked very indecisive in Week 7, which will not bode well at all for him against Suh, Avril, and Co.

I do like Tebow as a solid fantasy backup this season. He’ll be able to produce decent fantasy stats when the matchup is favorable. This one absolutely is not. In fact, it’s just about the worst matchup for Tebow at this stage in his career, especially with Willis McGahee being out and removing the Broncos’ only consistent rushing threat.

Stay far, far away…this week at least.

Tim Tebow fantasy football Week 8 projection: 125 yards passing, 45 yards rushing, 0 TDs, 2 INTs

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Eight:

• What the hell is wrong with Philip Rivers? I know Jon is as baffled as anyone. He thought Rivers would be the best fantasy QB this year, but Rivers has just 7 TDs through six games to go along with 9 INTs. He now has to face a Kansas City secondary that picked Oakland QBs off six times last week (I know it was Boller & Palmer, but still) and who Rivers hasn’t lit up historically (only 17 TDs in 12 career games). Plus the game is at Arrowhead, always a tough place to play. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I think if you have a reasonable alternative, it’s time make Rivers (and by extension Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson) prove that he’s the Rivers of old before you start him with confidence.
• Be wary of Ryan Fitzpatrick this week, despite what Cam Newton did against the Redskins last week. Washington has problems, but pass defense hasn’t been one of them. The ‘Skins, now desperate after another loss, have given up only five TD passes all season long. Fitzy doesn’t pose the running threat that Cam did, so Washington should have an easier job containing him.

Jon’s thoughts:

I really don’t have much to disagree with here…although I would say I am even higher on Eli Manning than Jerod is.  He should absolutely light up the Miami secondary.

One other guy I would definitely look at starting would be Matt Hasselbeck…he will be playing against the Colts.  All I really need to say here is, “62-7.”

One more under-the-radar guy I would look at is Andy Dalton.  The Seattle secondary is nearly as bad as Arizona’s, and at this point, it looks like the Red Rifle might just be good.  Plus, he has the Rookie of the Year Runner-Up (AJ Green) on his team.  You all know how much I love him…start the Red Rifle if your guy is on a bye.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em Picks: Running Backs

Start ‘Em RB: Chris Johnson, Tennessee (v Indianapolis)

Longtime readers know that when I do these start/sit posts, I try to never make my top-line picks obvious ones. Why would I tell you to start Adrian Peterson or Aaron Rodgers? That offers no one any value. So how crazy is it that in Week 8, former fantasy super-duperstar Chris Johnson warrants mention in the start ‘em category?

What’s even crazier is that some of you may think I’m crazy for trusting CJ268 (his actual rushing total this year) as my start ‘em RB!

But there is plenty of reason to expect the long-awaited CJ breakout this week, and it has everything to do with the matchup: Indianapolis. The Colts make every opposing running back look like Gale Sayers. Through seven games this year Indy is allowing 150.9 rushing yards per game and has allowed 9 touchdowns. If CJ can’t have a fantasy-relevant day against them then the Titans need to sue him for fraud immediately. I’m only half joking.

With that said, keep this in mind: just because Johnson torches Indy’s run D (which I expect), it doesn’t mean he’s “back”. It just means he has a pulse. On the bright side, there are some tasty matchups upcoming on the schedule (Carolina, Tampa Bay, Indy again, Buffalo, all in the bottom third in the league in run D), so feel free to enjoy a bit of optimism if the old CJ returns on Sunday.

Chris Johnson fantasy football Week 8 projection: 140 yards rushing, 2 TDs, 5 receptions, 45 yards

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 8:

• Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles are both definite starts this week, and in deeper leagues or on teams especially decimated by injury or bye weeks Pierre Thomas has some value as well. It all comes down to the matchup. New Orleans faces St. Louis in Week 8, the team with by far the worst run defense in the NFL. Last week the Saints faced the team with the second-worst run D in the NFL, Indiacrapolis, and all three of these guys put up solid fantasy numbers. Sure, it’d be great if there was one guy racking up all the fantasy goodness that Sean Payton and Drew Brees create, but come 6-team bye weeks like this one, just be thankful that the Saints will give opportunities to three running backs against a team like the Rams. 
• I can’t believe I’m doing this, but Ryan Torain is probably a top 20 back in Week 8. Despite two straight awful outings after his supposed breakout a few weeks back, Torain has a) a good matchup (Buffalo, 30th against the run) and b) the starting role with Tim Hightower injured and Roy Helu apparently not yet in good enough graces with Mike Shanahan to warrant the starting nod. We’ve seen Torain produce before in Shanahan’s system when given the chance, so you can start him with some measure of confidence…but don’t come blaming me if he ends up getting five carries and doing nothing. You and I both know we’re playing with fire talking about starting a Shanny RB, but the circumstances do seem to make the risk worth the potential reward in this case.
• I probably don’t need to tell you to start DeMarco Murray after his performance last week, but just in case you were worried that he only succeeded because of the matchup, his matchup is pretty good in Week 8 too. Philly gives up 123.8 rushing yards and a TD per game. With Felix Jones expected to still be out, Murray should get the lion’s share of the work. But take note: if you can, now isn’t a bad time to try to sell high on Murray’s inflated value.

Sit ‘Em RB: Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty, Cleveland (at San Francisco)

I don’t care who is healthy, who starts, or even if Cleveland signs Jim Brown for the week to come play. San Francisco has the best front 7 in football right now. Yes, I’m serious…watch them. Remember how we all used to look at Pittsburgh, and still do with Baltimore, and consider sitting even our studs against them? If you’re not thinking of San Fran in that light now, you’re mistaken. Just trust me. I’ve watched every minute of every one of their games this year. They are legit.

Plus, even when healthy Hillis has been far from a stud this year. Not only is he not nearly as effective this year as he was for much of last year, the Browns offense has regressed, leading to very few scoring opportunities for the backs. The ceiling for Cleveland’s RBs right now is quite likely what Montario Hardesty put up in Week 7: 122 total yards on 35 touches with no TDs. And that was against Seattle, a decent but not great run D. The 49ers are giving up just 74.7 rushing yards per game and have not allowed a running TD all season. Yikes.

Unless Cleveland signs the young Jim Brown to play on Sunday, sit whoever is carrying the ball for them. And against this 49ers run D, rested after the bye, even a young Jim Brown might have trouble finding holes.

Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty combined fantasy football projection for Week 8: 65 rushing yards, 40 receiving yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 8:

• Willis McGahee is out, which will lead some people to get excited about Knowshon Moreno, as will the matchup against Detroit’s less than stellar run D. I disagree. Granted, he’s not a terrible option if your lineup is decimated, but I’m waiting until he does something positive to trust him with a starting slot. Detroit will be able to stack the box against Tebow, which will make the going tough for Knowshon.
• That’s it. I’m off the DeAngelo Williams train. I’ve given him plenty of chances, and he always seems to repay me with flaming piles of turd like his 10-carry, 35-yard performance in Week 7, which was made even more frustrating by the fact that Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart ran wild against the Redskins. Make this guy have two straight solid weeks before you trust him. (And for the record, I’m not all that high on Jonathan Stewart either this week. Minnesota is good against the run.)
• Don’t get too excited about Bernard Scott, who will be filling in for the suspended Cedric Benson this week. Not only is Seattle decent against the run (105 yards per game, 5 TDs allowed) but Brian Leonard is there to siphon carries. Plus, offensive coordinator Jay Gruden clearly has confidence in Andy Dalton, AJ Green, et al, and he won’t hesitate to keep airing it out.

Jon’s thoughts:

I LOVE LOVE LOVE Ryan Torain this week.  Start him with confidence!

Also, let me pass along a quick story for all of you Knowshon Moreno lovers (I am one by the way…but this may make you wary of him as an NFL back).  Allegedly, the kid had never even played football until one day, his high school coach saw him playing tag with a bunch of kids and nobody could touch him.  He thought to himself, “Wow…that kid would make a great running back.”  The legend was born.  Anyway, Know (I have it on very good authority that this is what all of his friends call him) began torching people in high school, and even excelled in college because of his shear athletic ability.  However, he doesn’t really LOVE football like a lot of these guys, and he has never been a guy that people would describe as a “workout warrior.”  Now that he’s in the NFL, he can’t beat people just based off of his talent anymore.  Really, he’s a lot like Julio Jones.  Add all of this to the fact that the Broncos aren’t very good, and a 30-year-old with a blown apart knee has been BETTER than him all season…and I would stay away from Knowshon…maybe forever.

As for the Panthers’ running backs, I’m actually much higher on Jonathan Stewart (and not just because I own him in my league).  Minnesota is great against the run, so Williams will be neutralized.  However, Cam Newton LOVES throwing to Stewart out of the flat, and with Minnesota’s pass rush, I expect Newton to make a lot of quick, short throws to his tight ends and Stewart.  Stewart may not have a lot of yards on the ground, but I could see him approaching triple digits through the air.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em Picks: Wide Receivers

Start ‘Em WR: Brandon Lloyd, St. Louis (v New Orleans)

Regardless of whether Sam Bradford plays or not, I like Lloyd this week. In his first start with his new team last week, he compiled 6 receptions for 74 yards with A.J. Feeley at QB. That was in a blowout against Dallas. Clearly the potential for a blowout is there this week with the awful Rams going up against the juggernaut that just obliterated Indy to the tune of 62 points.

It is safe to assume that St. Louis will be passing a lot to try to keep with Brees and Co, and if they are, either St. Louis QB will surely continue to target their new toy. Plus, the Saints have given up 12 TD passes in 7 games, so they can be had through the air.

Lloyd proved last year that he’s a top flight wide receiver in Josh McDaniels’ system. He’s back with McD now, and I think he’s a possible top 10 WR from here on out, especially when you consider that St. Louis’ schedule eases up in the second half.

Brandon Lloyd fantasy football Week 8 projection: 7 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Eight:

• After two very subpar weeks, Antonio Brown took advantage of a favorable matchup against Arizona to bust out with 7 catches and 102 yards. He has another favorable matchup against New England in Week 8. Seeing as how Bill Belichick likes to take out the other team’s #1 offensive option, the focus of the Patriots D will likely be Mike Wallace. That should provide opportunities for Brown to make a few big plays, which he’s proven he can make.
• Michael Crabtree is quickly becoming Alex Smith’s go-to guy. He had his best game of the season in Week 6 when he snared 9 passes for 77 yards. With Braylon Edwards expected to return and stretch the defense, Crabtree should have even more room to do his Cris Carter impression. Cleveland’s pass defense stats are pretty solid from a yardage perspective, but they have given up 8 passing TDs in 6 games. I have a suspicion Crabtree makes his first venture into the end zone in Week 8.
• I haven’t been very complimentary of Steve Breaston over the past few weeks, but he is starting to win me over with his consistency. Breaston has at least 50 yards in four straight games and scored two TDs against Indy in Game 5. He faces a San Diego defense in Week 8 that allowed three TD passes to the Jets’ #2 receiver, Plaxico Burress. Though Dwayne Bowe will always be the top red zone option for Matt Cassel, the QB is clearly gaining trust in Breaston, so it’s time I do too. (Take note: just because Breaston is listed doesn’t mean I consider him a slam dunk start, but as a guy that may be on your waiver wire he offers some value for those desperate with six teams on bye.)

Sit ‘Em WR: Deion Branch, New England (at Pittsburgh)

I had a really, really hard time coming up with a sit ‘em WR for this week. With six teams on bye, it’s hard to say that any top 40 WR is a sit, especially in leagues where three wide receivers start. But I didn’t want to tell you to sit someone obvious or from a crappy offense, so I’m going to step out on a limb with Branch.

I’ll give you my reasons for suggesting Branch as a sit candidate so you can see if you agree with my thinking or not:

• Pittsburgh is #1 in the NFL against the pass this year, giving up just 171.9 yards per game and only 8 TDs in 7 games.
• Branch is the fourth option in the New England passing attack behind Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and Rob Gronkowski.
• Despite his ballyhooed rapport with Tom Brady, Branch has one game with zero receptions this year, another with one reception, and another with three catches. Yes, he’s had at least 69 yards receiving in four of his six games, and he’s caught two TDs, but there is a lot of inconsistency here.
• In his career, Branch averages just over 5 catches and 61.5 yards per game and against Pittsburgh, which is decent, but he’s only hit paydirt once.

I would not be shocked at all if Branch ends up having a good or even great game on Sunday. Such is the nature of New England’s offense. But I think there are plenty of reasons to think this will be another of Branch’s off weeks, so if you’re blessed with four or five good options this week despite all the byes, consider those options strongly.

Deion Branch fantasy football Week 8 projection: 4 receptions, 45 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week Eight:

• Tim Tebow is my sit ‘em QB, so clearly I don’t have much confidence in the Denver passing game. Thus, stick Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas on your benches. If you have to play one of them, Thomas is the guy I’d want based on what I saw in Week 7. 
• Reggie Wayne is really struggling. He hasn’t eclipsed 77 yards or scored a touchdown since Week 1. Tennessee may or may not be a good matchup, it just depends on which Titans team shows up, but Pierre Garcon remains the Colts WR to start right now anyway, and I’m waiting until Wayne can string together a few solid weeks in a row before thinking of him as a must-start WR again.
• Sidney Rice had a stellar 8-catch, 109-yard performance in Week 3, but his numbers have gotten steadily worse in every week since. Seeing as how he is no longer playing with his Viking buddy Tarvaris Jackson, and how not every pass D is as friendly to opposing WRs as Arizona’s is, it’s not a surprise. As long as Charlie Whitehurst is playing QB and the opponent is halfway competent against the pass, sit all Seahawks WRs unless you’re desperate.

Jon’s thoughts:

How are you not starting Steve Smith?  After watching Greg Jennings run all over the field against the Vikings, I am supremely confident that Steve Smith (a guy who plays very similarly to Greg Jennings, but is even more explosive) will have a MASSIVE day.  Steve Smith has been carrying terrible quarterbacks for…well…for forever, and now that he has someone that is better than competent, he is better than ever.  Most people probably don’t realize this, but Smith is the #4 WR in fantasy this year…yet he STILL ISN’T OWNED IN EVERY LEAGUE IN YAHOO!!!  This is unacceptable.  Start Smith with confidence this week…he could very well have the best week of anyone not named Megatron.

Jerod’s rebuttal thoughts:

Excuse me, but where did I say I’m not starting Steve Smith? Of course you start Steve Smith. I don’t want to patronize our readers, so I assume they can make obvious decisions like that. Although your note about him not being owned in all Yahoo leagues is concerning and ridiculous, so I’m glad you pointed Smith’s greatness out for the few who are unaware. But believe me, Smith is starting on any team I have.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em Picks: Tight Ends

Start ‘Em TE: Jake Ballard, New York Giants (v Miami)

Do you realize that Jake Ballard has caught 11 balls for nearly 200 yards and two touchdowns over the Giants’ last three games? It’s true. Many were lamenting the fact that Kevin Boss left for Oakland, and the effect it would have on Eli Manning’s stats, but Manning seems to have found a nice rapport with the Boss-like Ballard.

Fortuitously, Ballard’s Week 8 matchup is solid. Miami is one of the worst defenses in the league in terms of points given up to opposing tight ends. Add it all up, and Ballard is an outstanding start candidate this week.

Jake Ballard fantasy football Week 8 projection: 4 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week Eight:

• The Browns are also very bad at containing opposing tight ends. That means Vernon Davis needs to be playing on all rosters who have him. 
• The Cowboys are another teams that has given up a decent amount of fantasy points to opposing tight ends this year. With Brent Celek coming off of his first good game of the year (4 catches, TD) he is a sneaky start if you’re desperate.
• By now, you shouldn’t need me to tell you to get Fred Davis in your lineups…do you? If so, get him in your lineups.

Sit ‘Em TE: Dallas Clark, Indianapolis (at Tennessee)

Clark did not record a catch on Sunday night after having his first Clark-like game of the season in Week 6 (6 catches, 53 yards). Tennessee is a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of holding down opposing tight ends, but this selection is more based on lack of faith in the Colts offense than any confidence in the Jekyll and Hide Titans.

Clark has only scored two TDs this year and has only one game with more than four catches or 46 yards. The safer bet this season has been to take the under on those numbers, which is just about the floor for being considered a solid start option in a standard fantasy league. Let someone else pretend Dallas Clark is still the Clark of old. Don’t you make that mistake.

Dallas Clark fantasy football Week 8 projection: 3 catches 35 yards, 0 TD

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week Eight:

• Heath Miller‘s production has been steadily increasing, but I’m a bit worried about him in Week 8. New England is pretty good against opposing tight ends, and Miller has to score TDs to have value, as his yardage totals rarely will get you excited.
• Scott Chandler has four TDs this season, which looks really good when you’re sorting your waiver wire in desperate need of a fill-in. Don’t be fooled. Chandler hasn’t scored since Week 3 and and he has a grand total of 1 yard receiving over the last two games.

Jon’s thoughts:

It’s very hard to find tight ends who are going to have bad games from week to week, however I would consider sitting Owen Daniels as well.  Jacksonville’s defense has been very good (even though the rest of their team is awful), and even though Houston has been very good this year, Schaub hasn’t necessarily been lighting anybody up through the air.  He’s been good, but not great every week, and he’s only thrown 12 touchdown passes.  With all of that said, there may not be a better option than Owen Daniels…but I think he will have a down week on Sunday.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em Picks: Defense/Special Teams

Start ‘Em D/ST: Detroit Lions (at Denver)

If you want a full explanation for why I’m recommending Detroit’s D this week, just scroll up and read what I wrote about Tim Tebow. I like him, I’m rooting for him, but this is just a great matchup for Detroit’s defense in terms of what they do well.

You beat Detroit on the ground, and the Broncos will struggle to run with McGahee out. That means Tebow will have to try to win the game through the air and, well, Ndamukong Suh and Co could have a lot of fun.

Detroit Lions D/ST fantasy football Week 8 projection: 13 or fewer points, 5+ sacks, 1 turnover

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week Eight:

• Houston’s defense continues to surprise me with how well it’s playing under new coordinator Wade Philliips. Jacksonville and rookie QB Blaine Gabbert, who will be coming off of a Monday night game, should be a tasty matchup.
• Cincinnati’s D will be a popular choice this week going up against Seattle, and it’s a good choice. Just be wary of those tricky Seahawks at home. They will often surprise teams that are traveling over a couple of time zones to play them in their very loud stadium. That said, Charlie Whitehurst is Charlie Whitehurst.

Sit ‘Em D/ST: Pittsburgh Steelers (v New England)

The Steelers’ defense is starting to play better as of late, but they are far from the dominating unit we’re used to. Wheras a Pittsburgh-New England game might once have been a battle of top defenses, it is now a meeting of two of the top passing attacks in football.

Between Tom Brady, Big Ben, Mike Wallace, Wes Welker, et al, this should be a fun game to watch…so long as you’re not starting either defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST fantasy football Week 8 projection: 27 or more points, 2 sacks, 1 turnover

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week Eight:

• Don’t get too excited about Kansas City’s defense after what they did to Oakland. Kyle Boller and Carson Palmer were predictably awful and the Chiefs took advantage, but I expect more out of Philip Rivers and a Chargers team smarting after a tough, embarrassing loss to the Jets. It may not be enough to make Rivers a sure-fire start (as I mentioned above), but I do think the balance of the Chargers’ offense should allow them to put up points against KC.
• Minnesota’s defense is still pretty good against the run, but they are getting torched through the air. And after what Cam Newton was able to do against a very good Washington defense last week, the whole “play any D going against a rookie QB” adage does not work when he’s involved. In fact, it’s becoming start to avoid defenses that are going up against the amazing Cam.

Jon’s thoughts:

I would start the NY Giants this week.  While it’s true that they are not the Giants’ defense of old, they have an unbelievably favorable matchup against the Dolphins…who barely scored 15 points against Denver last week.

Don’t be depressed by their lack of production so far…they could have a 3 or 4 turnover week in Week 8.

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There they are. My Week 8 start/sit picks are in the books and on the record. That was fun! My thanks to Jon for ceding his start/sit saddle this week and giving me the opportunity to give it another go.

Now hopefully all of these picks work out for everyone who visits this week.

As usual, we’ll be answering your questions all week. So drop them below, and then stay tuned to the site for the rest of the week as we post new fantasy content every day.

Regardless, there may be some surprises this week from a few highly unknown RBs.  This position may very well be the most important for owners in terms of touches for players, but on the professional level it is the most dispensable position, as almost anyone can succeed in the right situation.

If you are itching to see how Tim Tebow is going to follow up his breakthrough game in Week 5, then you are going to have to wait until next week, but if you want to hear a bunch of media chatter about him just turn on ESPN.

Having said that, we have a lot of good stuff for you in this week’s Stock Report.

Fantasy Football Week 6: Stocks Up

Sam Bradford

There is no doubt that he is talented with a bright future, but Bradford is going through a small sophomore slump.  While that may be, going up against the Packers could be good for his fantasy numbers.  Yes, Green Bay does cause turnovers, but Sam isn’t an interception machine and the secondary does give up its share of big plays.

Daniel Thomas

Probable for the matchup against New York on Monday night, Daniel Thomas has been steadily taking away from Reggie Bush’s action as the weeks go by.  The Jets defense hasn’t lived up to the hype that it was getting this preseason, and if Thomas is getting the touches you can be sure he will be getting the points.

Earnest Graham

With LeGarrette Blount sitting out this game at home against New Orleans, Graham is a more than capable back to replace him.  Simply put, this Tampa Bay offense is still looking for an identity and have close to no weapons with any playmaking ability.  Look for the Bucs to get back to the basics and run the ball this week.

Delone Carter

I am proud to say that this is not a homer pick.  Yes Delone and I played together in high school, but that isn’t why his stock is up this week.  The Colts just see something in him that could benefit fantasy owners a lot.  When the ball gets anywhere near the goal-line, you can bet the house that Carter is getting the ball.  Add in the fact that Addai looks like he is going to sit out, and the rookie may start and have a big day against a Bengals defense that won’t have Rey Maualuga.

Victor Cruz

Does it need to be said that Eli Manning can put up numbers?  He may be turnover prone, but he does get his guys the ball.  Also, the GGGGGGG-Men are going up against a Bills team that loves to get in shootouts and get continuously burned by third receiving options (think Jason Avant, but without all of the turnovers hopefully).

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Usually, one wouldn’t be caught dead trying to make a case for a sprinter with no hands for fantasy football, but that is about to happen right now.  Al Davis was the only person who really believed in Heyward-Bey, and with his passing the Raiders wide-out could continue to make the statement he’s been making the past few weeks.  Did I mention that Browns CB Joe Haden is listed as questionable too?

Cleveland Browns TEs

While the Browns have a few receivers on the squad, it is the tight ends who have been the most productive thus far.  Both Evan Moore and Benjamin Watson are more than capable of making plays for your squad.  Some people feel as if two tight ends would take away from each other, but not when those two are the best pass catchers on the team.

Buffalo D/ST

Although it was noted that a player earlier in the article could have a big day against the Bills’ defense, that doesn’t mean they can’t do what they do best.  Interceptions, well turnovers in general, is what they are best at on defense.  Hey, they picked off Brady and Vick a total of 8 times this year and the turnover machine Eli Manning is next on the schedule.

Fantasy Football Week 6: Stocks Down

Matt Schaub

Sometimes it is hard to rate how Schaub is go play becuae one day you will get a 25 point outing from him and then the very next week that number is cut to 9.  It is safe to say that if the over/under for him this week is 13, the Ravens defense is likely to play where he hits the under.

Michael Vick

DISCLAIMER!  His stock really isn’t down, but for a player of Vick’s caliber, yes it is down this week for a few reasons.  The record setting game last year in primetime has not been forgotten in D.C. and the Redskins will be doing everything they can to stop him.  Besides, the Skins have only allowed 3 touchdown passes this year.  Again, stock isn’t down, just treading water.

Redskins RBs

The circus that the backfield is in in the nation’s capital is just that, a show with many quirks.  Not even Mike Shanahan knows who he wants to be the feature back, and if Tim Hightower does in fact play, then he and Torain will surely take away from each other on Sunday.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis

The man who has four names in his name alone will be limited to that many toes on his foot if he is to play this week.  Even if he does play, the strength of the Cowboys defense has been the ability to stop the run and control the line of scrimmage, as good as any other team in the league.

Brandon Marshall

To receive fantasy points, one must acquire stats.  To get these stats, this person must be in the game and on the field, correct?  I’m not sure if fantasy owners are taking Brandon Marshall seriously, but getting ejected from the game before halftime is not going to help his numbers at all.  Now ask yourself: is this a risk that you really want to take?

Jason Avant

His popularity has gone up some, but 11 points isn’t much to get excited about; and ask yourself this: would I throw him the ball during crunch time seeing what happened in Buffalo last week?

Reggie Wayne

It is no secret that Curtis Painter has a new favorite target in Pierre Garcon, so naturally Wayne’s numbers will be down.  Take this into account as well: Leon hall doesn’t necessarily guard the speedy receivers, so instead of taking Garcon out of the game, it looks like Hall will be trying to shut down Reggie.

Aaron Hernandez

Now when you drop a sure touchdown pass, does Tom Brady forgive and forget or does he hold that against you and throw to his many other weapons?  Apparently it is circumstantial but Hernandez is still listed as questionable and won’t be 100% for the game so play accordingly.

49ers D/ST

The week could go either way for this defense.  On the year they have caused 14 turnovers and have notched an interception every game.  Three out of the five they have played were multi-interception games.  Now for the bad news: playing on the road is no easy test and especially against the flaming hot Detroit Lions.  If Megatron gets hot, it could be a long day.

Andre Johnson is gone.  Ben Roethlisberger is banged up.  Miles Austin is on the mend.  Marques Colston is back, but when will he get on track?

With the bye weeks now here, the time has come when fantasy leagues are truly won and lost.  If you drafted well, and got a little lucky, you should be near the top of the standings.  But nobody can ever completely escape the injury bug.  Managing your lineup properly when byes and injuries attack is what separates the good owners from the great ones.

So let’s look at the Week Five games and decide who to start and who to sit this week.

As always, let’s briefly recap last week’s picks just to see how we did.

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Week Four Recap

Overall – 29 for 47 (62%)

Best Player Predictions: 2 for 4

• Hits: Megatron and Rob Gronkowski
• Misses: Matt Stafford and Adrian Peterson

Start Em Predictions: 2 for 4

• Hits: BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Greg Olsen
• Misses: Ben Roethlisberger and Plaxico Burress (Thanks a lot…Sanchez…)

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 12 for 16

• Hits: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Matt Hasselbeck, Fred Jackson, Michael Turner, Brandon Jacobs, AJ Green, Wes Welker, Roddy White, Jimmy Graham, Jermaine Gresham, and Tony Gonzalez
• Misses: Jay Cutler, Jahvid Best, Reggie Wayne, and Jermichael Finley.

Worst Player Predictions: 0 for 4

• Misses: Kyle Orton, Texans’ Running Backs (HUGE MISS…sorry guys), Sidney Rice, and Owen Daniels

Sit Em Predictions: 1 for 4

• Hits: Joe Flacco
• Misses: Ray Rice (Never will I ever doubt him again), Dwayne Bowe, and Vernon Davis

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 12 for 15

• Hits: Matt Cassel, Blaine Gabbert, Matt Schaub, Chad Henne, Daniel Thomas, James Starks, Cowboys’ Running Backs, Chad Ochocinco, Jeremy Maclin, Anquan Boldin, Heath Miller, and Kellen Winslow
• Misses: Denver Running Backs, Steve Smith 1.0, and Benjamin Watson

And now onto the Week 5 start em, sit em picks.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit Em Projections

One brief change this week:

As you know, Jerod did the Start/Sit column the last two years before handing the keys to me this year. He still edits the column before it’s posted though, and helps out in the comment section answering questions throughout the week. And while we agree on the majority of these picks, there are some spots where we differ, and we think it will add value to the column to have him chime in with alternate viewpoints when he has them.

So at the end of each position section, you’ll see a blockquote with Jerod’s quick-hit thoughts on the picks, especially any he strongly disagrees with. As always when it comes to our fantasy advice, MSF is an ego-free zone where helping readers put the best possible lineup together is the goal. This is just one more way we can work together to do that.

Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 5:

• Cleveland
• Dallas
• St. Louis
• Miami
• Washington
• Baltimore

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Quarterbacks 

Projected Best Performer – Michael Vick

Vick started to look like the Vick of last season on Sunday, and his team still got the loss.  Buffalo’s secondary leaves a lot to be desired, as they have been torched by several teams already this season.  Look for Vick to try and put the Eagles on his shoulders as they travel to Buffalo trying to save their season.  The Eagles may not win, but Vick should have a MONSTER day.

Michael Vick Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 380 passing yards, 3 TDs and 1INT; 85 rushing yards, 1 TD

Start Em – Philip Rivers

I almost feel like this is cheating, but Rivers is only ranked 14th among fantasy quarterbacks.  Look for him to start moving up the charts this week in Denver.

Philip Rivers Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 350 yards, 3 TDs

Other Guys I Like:

• Eli Manning – At home against Seattle.
• Drew Brees – On the road in Carolina.
• Curtis Painter – Played well in his debut, and will be doing his best against the Chiefs to make sure the Colts don’t finish with the worst record in the league.
• Mark Sanchez – The Pats’ defense is beyond banged up right now…and they weren’t all that good to begin with – especially against the pass.

Projected Worst Performer – Cam Newton

No, this is not one of those “He can’t really be this good!  He’s going to fail eventually!” picks… I have actually been very impressed by the youngster so far this year.  Unfortunately, the Saints’ defense will be unlike anything he has played so far.  The Packers were definitely a better defense, but they played very vanilla against him.  He has never faced a defense that will attack him like New Orleans will this Sunday.  I think Newton will go on to have a very good season, but not this week against New Orleans.

Cam Newton Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 180 passing yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs; 45 rushing yards, 2 fumbles

Sit Em – Tom Brady

Just hear me out.  Obviously, if you have Tom Brady, you probably don’t have a reliable backup.  That’s ok.  He could still get you 15 to 18 fantasy points this week.  However, if you are in a small league, and you were able to pick up someone like Matt Stafford as a backup, you should look very seriously at benching Brady this week, and it has everything to do with the Patriots’ Week 5 opponent and Brady’s checkered history against them.

The Jets have one of the best passing defenses in the league, and Darrelle Revis will be able to shut down Wes Welker better than anyone else in the league.  That leaves Brady with only Rob Gronkowski as a legitimate weapon all day, and the Jets will be licking their chops to rush Brady if New England only has five guys protecting him.

Plus, consider Brady’s last five starts against the Jets:

• 2010 Playoffs: 299 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
• 2010 Week 2: 248 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
• 2010 Week 13: 326 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INT
• 2009 Week 11: 310 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
• 2009 Week 2: 216 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

Based on the averages, Brady will still throw for 250 yards, and may even have a few TDs…and of course he has the potential to throw a 4 TD gem against anyone…but the Jets have also proven that more often than not they at least pull Brady back to the pack; thus, there could definitely be much better options than him for your lineup this week.

Tom Brady Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 250 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• Ben Roethlisberger – The Steelers are just bad, and he’s banged up.
• Donovan McNabb – I’m just trying to pad my stats for next week…
• Matt Ryan – They might lose by 50 points to Green Bay.
• Jay Cutler – Detroit’s defensive line will make him dance by the second quarter.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Everything here sounds reasonable, including Jon’s thoughts on Brady (who I’d still start though, personally), but I disagree on Matt Ryan. He and the Falcons offense are much better at home and in domes, and the Green Bay defense is giving up a lot through the air. I say start Ryan. He’s a top 10 QB this week.

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Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Running Backs

Projected Best Performer – Maurice Jones-Drew

Jacksonville is just awful, and they will ride Mo-Joe until he falls over in the second quarter during week 8.  I feel bad for the guy, having his prime ruined on lousy teams.  Fortunately, his fantasy owners will make good – especially this week against Cincinnati.

Maurice Jones-Drew Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 180 yards, 1 TD; 80 yards receiving

Start Em – Joseph Addai

He’s quietly had a pretty decent year, despite all of the upheaval in Indy.  The Colts’ offense should move a little more fluidly with Curtis Painter as well.  To top that off, Indy will be playing Kansas City in a game that the Colts foolishly think they need to win.  Colts’ fans will watch in horror as Indy ruins their chances at Andrew Luck.

Joseph Addai Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 135 yards, 1 TD; 45 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other Guys I Like

• Darren Sproles – He’s just so fast…and Carolina’s LBs are hurt.
• LeGarrette Blount – San Francisco is actually sneaky decent…Tampa Bay will be forced to grind it out more than normal.
• LaDainian Tomlinson – He might have 150 yards receiving against the Pats.
• Mike Tolbert – Playing Denver…enough said.

Projected Worst Performer – Rashard Mendenhall

He’s awful, and Tennessee is good.

Rashard Mendenhall Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 10 yards rushing

Sit Em – Michael Turner

Remember the last time Green Bay played Atlanta, on that fast turf, indoors, and jumped out to a huge lead, and rendered Michael Turner unusable against a defensive line that was already amazing at stuffing the run?  Oh.  Me neither…

Michael Turner Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 25 yards rushing; 15 yards receiving

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• Shonn Greene – Not a great matchup against NE.
• BJGE – Pats won’t have a good day on offense.
• James Starks – The Packers don’t run the ball…and they don’t need to.
• Matt Forte – Detroit’s defensive line will make him cry by the second quarter.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Joseph Addai has been surprisingly effective this season, and I like him as a flex option this week, perhaps even over Mendenhall (who I’m growing to hate), but I personally would not start him over Michael Turner. I know the Packers held him down in the playoffs last year, but in Week 12 of 2010 he had over 100 yards and a TD against Green Bay in the Georgia Dome, and Green Bay’s defense is not nearly as good this year. Hell, let me just say it: I like everyone in the Packers-Falcons game, and with Turner averaging 4.6 yards per carry this year, I can’t recommend sitting him.

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Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer – Megatron

I will continue to pick him every week until he becomes human.

Calvin Johnson Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 8 catches for 120 yards and 3 TDs.

Start Em – Deion Branch

If the Jets do what I think they will do, I think Branch will have a breakout game of sorts.  Look for Gronkowski and Welker to be neutralized, and Branch to have a pretty decent game.

Deion Branch Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 7 catches for 90 yards and 1 TD.

Other Guys I Like

• Reggie Wayne – Got a lot of targets last week with Painter, and should have a favorable matchup against anyone on KC.
• Hakeem Nicks – Huge game for him.
• AJ Green – He’s unbelievable…I keep telling you.
• Devery Henderson – Despite registering zero catches last week, Carolina won’t be able to stay in front of him and Henderson will bounce back.

Projected Worst Performer – David Nelson

Nnamdi Asomugha finally justifies the money that was spent on him this summer.

David Nelson Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 4 catches for 30 yards.

Sit Em – Pierre Garcon

Don’t chase TDs!  He only had two catches on Monday Night, and although they ended up being two giant home runs, he only caught the ball one-fourth of the time it was thrown to him.  Believe me, this is hard for me to say, because Pierre is my favorite player.  I may or may not have spent more than 100 bucks on a Super Bowl jersey with his name and number that ended up being a curse against the Saints.  Either way, don’t be fooled by his “big game” against Tampa.  He’s hit or miss…and this week is a miss.

Pierre Garcon Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 0 catches

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• Wes Welker – Bad game by his standards.
• Victor Cruz – Stop drinking the Cruz kool-aid…right now…at least for one more week.
• Steve Smith 1.0 – Tough game for Newton and the Panthers.
• Jacoby Jones – Don’t be fooled…he won’t have a break out game, no matter who is hurt on his team.

Jerod’s Thoughts:

So long as people make sure to still start Wes Welker – because you can’t sit him right now – I’m fine with him being in Jon’s dislike section. I also agree on Garcon. Don’t overreact to one big week and a couple of fluky touchdowns. As for Nelson, the question is who will Nnamdi cover? The Eagles play a lot of zone, which has been part of their secondary’s downfall since they have a lot of good cover corners. And I agree on Branch. I thought he’d bounce back last week, but I think it comes this week with one of Brady’s favorite all-time targets getting the 3rd or 4th best cover option on the Jets.

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Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer – Jermaine Gresham

He’s really good and the Jaguars are really bad.

Jermaine Gresham Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection: 7 catches for 120 yards and 1 TD.

Start Em – Brandon Pettigrew

I watched, first hand, two weeks ago as the Chicago Bears proved they couldn’t guard tight ends and Jermichael Finley went off.  Look for Pettigrew to have a big day in a huge Monday Night Football game that the city of Detroit deserves.

Brandon Pettigrew Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 5 catches for 130 yards and 1 TD

Other Guys I Like

• Greg Olsen – Cam Newton’s security blanket all game against the blitzing Saints.
• Dallas Clark – Let’s just hook everybody up the the Curtis Painter rejuvenation machine!
• Owen Daniels – He’s the guy that will get more looks with Andre Johnson being out.
• Scott Chandler – I know I always say not to chase TDs…but I think he grabs one or two this week.

Projected Worst Performer – Heath Miller

When Tight Ends lose it…they LOSE it…and Heath Miller has lost it.

Heath Miller Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 1 catch for 8 yard

Sit Em – Vernon Davis

Tampa Bay did a great job of locking down Dallas Clark, and they should have similar success against the 49ers.

Vernon Davis Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 4 catches for 40 yards

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• I originally picked Jimmy Graham, but as I thought about it, I started to have second thoughts.  Then, I read Jerod’s thoughts below, and completely agreed.  There really aren’t any of the big name tight ends that I dislike this week…so I am sticking to Davis and these other two guys.
• Jeff King – Rough day for Arizona
• Jeremy Shockey – One get enough looks against New Orleans.

Jerod’s thoughts:

First off, you can’t sit Jimmy Graham. Sorry Jon, but I disagree here strongly. He hasn’t caught fewer than four passes this year and he’s had over 100 yards the last two weeks. He’s also scored three times. The reality is that Graham, not Colston, not Meachem, not Moore, not Henderson, is Drew Brees’ #1 target right now. Also, I’d think long and hard before sitting Vernon Davis. Alex Smith gained a lot of confidence last week, and Davis remains the best receiving threat on the team. If you’re going to sit him, make sure it’s for someone the caliber of Gronkowski, Pettigrew, or Graham. Remember: talent usually wins out over time, and few tight ends are as talented as Vernon Davis.

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As always, feel free to ask your questions in the comment section and I will do my best to respond.  Or, you can send them to me on twitter anytime: @The_Dr_Twitch.

I wish I knew…injuries have just killed me…and I’ve lost each week by an average of 1.2 points. Just heartbreaking.

Some of you are probably in the same boat as me. Even if you aren’t, it’s the time in the fantasy football season when leagues are won and lost. Now is when we have to start making the tough calls.

Image source: AOLNews.com

Maybe you chose to ride Chris Johnson through the first three weeks because you spent so much money on him and “he is just too good to keep failing.” You can’t be stubborn any longer. It’s time to cut your losses and start doing the unthinkable…it’s time to start other guys that are just having better years, or maybe even cut someone you felt good about going in.

Don’t be afraid to admit your mistakes. The worst thing you could ever do is hold onto a guy too long, or keep starting a guy every week, just because you want to prove that you were right at the beginning. You may be 0-3, but all you need to do is get into the playoffs…then, anything can happen.

Let’s quickly recap my picks from last week and then look ahead to Week 4. Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Week Three Recap

Overall – 26 for 45 (58%)

Best Player Predictions: 3 for 4
Hits: Tom Brady, Maurice Jones-Drew, Rob Gronkowski
Misses: Brandon Marshall

Start Em Predictions: 2 for 4
Hits: Rex Grossman, Santana Moss,
Misses: Rashard Mendenhall, Brent Celek

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 10 for 16
Hits: Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, LeSean McCoy, Fred Jackson, Shonn Greene, Ray Rice, Larry Fitzgerald, Dustin Keller, Tony Gonzalez, Owen Daniels
Misses: Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, Reggie Wayne, AJ Green, Steve Smith, Jermaine Gresham

Worst Player Predictions: 3 for 4
Hits: Matt Cassell, Denarius Moore, Todd Heap
Misses: Colts’ RBs

Sit Em Predictions: 2 for 4
Hits: Jahvid Best, Dallas Clark,
Misses: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dwayne Bowe

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 6 for 13
Hits: Donovan McNabb, Kerry Collins, Julio Jones, Jeremy Maclin, Santonio Holmes, Ben Watson
Misses: Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Darren McFadden, Packers’ Running Backs, Adrian Peterson, Scott Chandler, Jimmy Graham

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Quarterbacks

Projected Best Performer: Matt Stafford
Stafford (as long as he stays healthy) will be a Top 5 Fantasy QB at the end of the year, and the Dallas secondary should provide little resistance. Expect a lot of points in this old-school battle of Thanksgiving Day football teams.

Matthew Stafford Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 375 yards, 4 TDs

Start Em QB: Ben Roethlisberger
Pittsburgh’s appalling lack of commitment to the running game is one of the biggest surprises of this season. I’m not sure if their philosophy has changed (possible), if they have realized Mendenhall isn’t that good (very possible), if their offensive line has regressed yet again (probably), or if a combination of all three has happened (most likely). Either way, start Big Ben with confidence this week against the Texans.

Ben Roethlisberger Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 330 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other Start ‘Em QBs for Week Four:

• Eli Manning – Lots of yards against Arizona’s porous secondary.
• Philip Rivers – Bounce back game after a lackluster game against the Chiefs
• Matt Hasselbeck – Expect him to play very well until the inevitable injury in week 8.
• Jay Cutler – Having a very solid season despite the storyline.

Projected Worst Performer: Kyle Orton
And you thought the Tebow chants were loud in week one? I almost feel bad for Orton at this point. A horrible game against Green Bay will about seal his fate and future with the Broncos.

Kyle Orton Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 180 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs

Sit Em QB: Joe Flacco
Joe Flacco has really come out with a huge season so far, and I actually expect it to continue. He has some very good weapons, and he appears to have made a “leap” of sorts. However, I just hate the matchup this week. The Jets will be angry and ready to prove to the world on Sunday Night Football that what happened in Oakland was a fluke.

Joe Flacco Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 225 Yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other Sit ‘Em QBs for Week Four:

• Matt Cassel – Minnesota’s defense is underrated, and I think they will finally finish a game.
• Blaine Gabbert – Obvious reasons.
• Matt Schaub – Troy Polamalu looks really fast again…this is bad news for the rest of the league.
• Chad Henne – After a ho-hum win over Kansas City, San Diego’s entire team will rebound well this week.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Running Backs

Projected Best Performer: Adrian Peterson
The best running back in the league is going against the worst team in the league…and his coach will probably ride him hard in order to not blow another huge lead.

Adrian Peterson Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 160 yards, 1 TD; 65 receiving yards, 1 TD

Start Em RB: BJGE – The Law Firm
I think the Pats’ passing attack is fantastic, but Coach Belichik also knows that they will eventually need to be able to run the ball once winter sets in. A lot of people will be expecting a lot of fast-paced drives and big plays in Oakland this week, but I think the Pats surprise a lot of people and start grinding it out a little more. Look for the Law Firm to have a big day.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 90 yards, 2 TDs; 65 receiving yards

Other Start ‘Em RBs for Week Four:

• Brandon Jacobs – He looked fresh on Sunday, and he’s also becoming more of a threat out of the backfield.
• Fred Jackson – Big day for Jackson against the Bengals.
• Jahvid Best – Massive day for Detroit players…yet again.
• Michael Turner – Playing the Seahawks…enough said.

Projected Worst Performer: Texans’ Running Backs
The Colts had a decent night running the ball because they had no other choice…and Pittsburgh wasn’t really prepared for it. The Texans, on the other hand, will try to establish their passing attack first, and if the Steelers shut it down, Houston will find itself trailing early. Add to that the fact that seemingly all of their running backs have nagging injuries, and I foresee a rough day for Houston RBs…no matter who is lined up in the backfield.

Ben Tate and Arian Foster Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 38 yards; 44 receiving yards

Sit Em RB: Ray Rice
I know I have been burned by doubting Ray Rice before, but I really hate their matchup this week against New York. I don’t expect the Ravens to get an early lead like they did against the Steelers, and I’m afraid that Rice will only get something like 11 carries and a few receptions this week. If that happens, Rice owners will be in for a long day.

Ray Rice Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 49 yards; 36 receiving yards

Other Sit ‘Em RBs for Week Four:

• Daniel Thomas – I need him to do it again against somebody legit.
• James Starks – I saw Ryan Grant in person this week…and he looks like he’s COMPLETELY back from injury. Look for the Packers to gradually stop splitting the load between the two backs.
• Denver Running Backs – Green Bay might have the best rushing defense in the league.
• Cowboys Running Backs – If Green Bay isn’t first, Detroit is.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer: Megatron
After last week’s performance, I’m penciling him into this spot until he blows out his knee in 4 places and even then…I will need to make sure he isn’t in the lineup.

Calvin Johnson Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 7 Catches for 145 yards and 2 TDs

Start Em WR: Plaxico Burress
Once again, Sanchez really loves him in the red zone, and I think he will get a lot of chances against Baltimore’s good, but smallish secondary.

Plaxico Burress Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 5 Catches for 75 yards and 2 TDs

Other Start ‘Em WRs for Week Four:

• Reggie Wayne – Painter is his guy…and he’s in the starting lineup.
• Roddy White – Finally the performance his owners have been waiting for.
• AJ Green – He’s good! I promise! Buffalo is also a good matchup for him.
• Wes Welker – As long as their TEs are banged up and Chad Ochocinco is an option, expect Welker to have monster days.

Projected Worst Performer: Sidney Rice
One of those games where nothing goes right for Seattle. You know, like all of their other games that don’t come against NFC West opponents.

Sidney Rice Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 3 catches for 25 yards

Sit Em WR: Dwayne Bowe
Minnesota’s secondary actually isn’t that bad. If you take out Megatron and one 60 yard reception by Best, Stafford actually had a pretty modest day against them. Well, Dwayne Bowe is not Megatron…and the Chiefs are awful. Bowe will be in for a long day against the Vikings.

Dwayne Bowe Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 4 catches for 38 yards.

Other Sit ‘Em WRs for Week Four:

• Chad Ochocinco – I just wanted to give myself an easy point for my record next week.
• Steve Smith 1.0 – Tough day for the Newtons.
• Jeremy Maclin – Just not the same player without Michael Vick, plus he’s injured and may not even play.
• Anquan Boldin – Revis Island.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer: Rob Gronkowski
See above, Megatron.

Rob Gronkowski Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 12 catches for 120 yards and 1 TD.

Start Em TE: Greg Olsen
I witnessed, first hand, the worst safety in the league on Sunday: Craig Steltz for the Bears…and boy did he win that award easily. His biggest problem is covering tight ends, as evidenced by Jermichael Finley’s outstanding day. The Panthers won’t have a great day against the Bears, but expect big things from Olsen.

Greg Olsen Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 9 catches for 100 yards a 1 TD.

Other Start ‘Em TEs for Week Four:

• Jermichael Finley – He’s baaaa-aack.
• Jimmy Graham – He’s quickly becoming one of Brees’ favorite targets.
• Tony Gonzalez – Just a touchdown machine at this point. Even though I don’t like to chase touchdowns, Gonzo is almost good for one a game.
• Jermaine Gresham – Buffalo showed us last week that they have a hard time defending the pass, and especially tight ends.

Projected Worst Performer: Owen Daniels
Troy Polamalu is back to roving the middle of the field. This is bad news for Daniels.

Owen Daniels Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 3 catches for 15 yards.

Sit Em TE: Vernon Davis
Philly has done a very good job of defending tight ends this year. Besides Tony Gonzalez’s unbelievable catch on Monday Night Football, they have basically shut them down. Look for Davis to have a rough week this week against the Eagles.

Vernon Davis Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 5 catches for 45 yards

Other Sit ‘Em TEs for Week Four:

• Heath Miller – Pitt’s WRs will get a lot more action this week.
• Ben Watson – I still don’t trust him.
• Kellen Winslow – Will be forced to help out with pass protection against Freeney and Mathis more than he wants.

Best of luck in Week 4! Pose your Week 4 questions below.

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Don’t miss the rest of our Fantasy Football Week 4 coverage:

• Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Projections
• Week 4 Waiver Wire Advice
• Week 4 Rankings

Because we at MSF try our best to get you our Start Em, Sit Em picks before everyone else, we have to take a few chances. One of the downsides to coming out with these picks on Tuesday is that we won’t know all of the injury updates that come out later in the week. We answer your questions and update our predictions accordingly as more information comes out.

However, a few predictions didn’t pan out this week because of injuries (either during the game, or because guys with nagging injuries didn’t end up suiting up on Sunday)…so out of fairness to me, we are going to throw out Michael Vick, Felix Jones, and Dez Bryant.

So besides those guys who caught the injury bug, I went 29 out of 46 overall…a little under 65%. I improved from week one…and that’s exactly what you should try to do from week to week in fantasy.

If you missed the $250 MSF Week 1 Freeroll Challenge at FanDuel, shame on you. But the good news is that we’ll be doing another one in Week 3! Details to come soon.

Click here to sign up at FanDuel to play the best weekly fantasy football game around.

Fantasy Football Week Three

Also, don’t miss Andy Bottoms’ Week 3 waiver wire advice!

Week Two Recap

Best Player Predictions: 2 for 3
Picks: Ray Rice, Megatron, and Jermaine Gresham (Michael Vick)
Calvin Johnson had two TDs, and Rice still put up 15 fantasy points in a horrible week for Baltimore. Gresham, however, was a complete no-show. Unfortunately for him, AJ Green announced himself to the world this week, and Gresham didn’t get a lot of targets.

Start Em Predictions: 2.5 for 4
Picks: Tony Romo, Shonn Greene, Jabar Gaffney, and Dallas Clark
Romo was an absolute “hit” of a pick…and he didn’t even play the whole game. However, Greene, Gaffney, and Clark were all lukewarm. None of them killed you if you started them, but none of them really went out and crushed it either. Greene and Clark both got TDs to salvage their days, and Gaffney had a solid amount of yards with no TDs. I’m giving myself 1/2 points for all three of them.

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 13 for 17
Hits: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Darren Sproles, LeSean McCoy, Hakeem Nicks, Miles Austin, Jason Witten, Dustin Keller, and Aaron Hernandez
Misses: Kerry Collins, Devin Hester, Jacoby Jones, and Ed Dickson

Worst Player Predictions: 3 for 4
Picks: Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams, Mike Thomas, and Brandon Pettigrew
Completely missed on the Auburn alum…and completely nailed the other three. I still find it hard to believe that Cam Newton is going to be doing this all year, but he is definitely worth a look right now, especially if you need a solid backup. Also, since I live in Charleston, SC, and am forced to have every single second of every Panther game shown to me on tv, I have to say I’ve loved the young guy’s attitude in both losses this year.

Sit Em Predictions: 0.5 for 4
Picks: Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Santonio Holmes, and Scott Chandler
Holmes scored a TD to salvage an otherwise mediocre day, so I’m giving myself a half point on that one. Other than that, Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Chandler were all misses.

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 8 for 14
Hits: Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford, Colts’ RBs, LaDainian Tomlinson, Mark Ingram, Mike Thomas, Ben Watson, Greg Olsen, Todd Heap
Misses: Matt Hasselbeck, Sam Bradford, LeGarrette Blount, AJ Green, Steve Smith 1.0, and Dwyane Bowe.

On to Week Three!

Just a little clarification… “Top Performer” predictions can be anybody…I can put Tom Brady in there every single week if I want to (and by the looks of it, I may just have to do that). However, “Start Em” guys will be QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25 at their position (unless, for some reason, a lot of people are predicting them to have a terrible week and I disagree). “Sit Em” guys will be QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25 at their position.

Again, the goal of this article is to help you with the FRINGE guys…any idiot could sit down and predict, with great accuracy, that the top 10 fantasy QBs will have good weeks. At MSF, we try to help you with the difficult choices.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Quarterbacks

Projected Best Performer: Tom Brady
What? You were expecting someone else? It’s possible it will be incredibly windy in Buffalo this weekend…unfortunately, that is the Bills’ only hope at slowing down Justin Bieber on Sunday.

Tom Brady fantasy football Week 3 projection – 390 yards; 4 TDs, 1 INT

Projected Worst Performer: Matt Cassel
He’s been awful so far this year…and now he will be playing without his best offensive weapon against a team that will be trying to exact revenge after making so many dumb mistakes against the Pats last week.

Matt Cassel fantasy football Week Three projection – 195 yards; 1 TD, 3 INTs

Start Em QB: Rex Grossman
This is a combination of two things: I actually really like what Grossman has done so far this year; and the Cowboys’ secondary is terrible. The possibility exists that Washington will be in for a tough game on the road in Dallas, but I don’t think it will affect Grossman’s numbers very much on Monday Night.

Rex Grossman fantasy football Week 3 projection – 330 yards; 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other Start ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• Philip Rivers – Always.
• Matt Stafford – As long as he’s healthy.
• Cam Newton – Home against Jacksonville…he should have a very solid day again.
• Matt Ryan – Big game against Tampa Bay.

Sit Em QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick
This might not sound like a huge leap of faith, but Fitzpatrick is currently the fifth overall ranked fantasy QB, and New England’s pass defense isn’t exactly spectacular. Nevertheless, I really don’t like Fitzpatrick this week.

If the Bills end up trailing by 14 or more early on (I think they will), Fitzpatrick won’t have the time to sit back in the pocket like he did against Oakland this week. NE will get him uncomfortable, and force him into a few more mistakes than normal.

Ryan Fitzpatrick fantasy football Week Three projection – 230 yards; 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other Sit ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler – (Relatively to what they will normally do)…I think the GB/CHI game will be a lot uglier than what people will be expecting.
• Donovan McNabb – Against Suh…yikes!
• Kerry Collins – Maybe the last game of his career.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Running Backs

Projected Best Performer: Maurice Jones-Drew
Mo-Joe should get lots of carries if and when Blaine Gabbert starts on Sunday, and he will probably be fantastic until he dies in week 5 due to being unbelievably over-worked for the past twenty years.

Maurice Jones-Drew fantasy football Week 3 projection – 140 Rushing Yards, 1 TD; 85 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Projected Worst Performer: Colts’ RBs
They are awful…and they will be playing Pittsburgh. There’s just nothing to like about the Colts’ offense this week.

Joseph Addai and Delone Carter fantasy football Week Three projection – 28 Rushing Yards TOTAL

Start Em RB: Rashard Mendenhall
I’m really down on Mendenhall this year, but against the Colts on Sunday Night, he will haul a lot people back onto his bandwagon.

Rashard Mendenhall fantasy football Week 3 projection – 115 Rushing Yards; 45 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• LeSean McCoy – Maybe no Vick…maybe tons of stats for the RB.
• Fred Jackson – Gets a surprising amount of yardage on the ground against NE.
• Ray Rice – Could be the overall top performer against St. Louis.
• Shonn Greene – The second of like six or seven straight great weeks for him.

Sit Em RB: Jahvid Best
I think the Lions will do pretty well against Minnesota this week, but I don’t necessarily love the matchup for Best. The Vikings’ D-Line is still solid, but more importantly, they have shown to be vulnerable in the air. Megatron and his friends will be targeted early and often…and for good reason.

Jahvid Best fantasy football Week Three projection – 45 Rushing Yards; 45 Receiving Yards

Other Sit ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• Adrian Peterson – Ndomakong Suh (you’re still starting him of course, but temper expectations)
• Darren McFadden – Not against the Jets. He may break one big reception, but otherwise, he will be bottled up.
• Packers Running Backs – The platoon is killing both of them…and neither will run well in Chicago.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer: Brandon Marshall
Marshall will most likely be playing in an ugly game at Cleveland. Both teams will try to run the ball quite a bit in order to control the clock, and the passing games will be left out a little bit. That won’t be a problem for Marshall though. He will create matchup problems for the undersized Cleveland secondary all day, and while the Dolphins may lose, Marshall should have a big day.

Brandon Marshall fantasy football Week 3 projection – 8 Catches for 165 Yards and 1 TD.

Projected Worst Performer: Denarius Moore
Revis Island. Moving on.

Denarius Moore fantasy football Week Three projection – 1 Catch for 9 Yards

Start Em WR: Santana Moss
Moss is quietly having a very solid fantasy season once again. At this point, he is the 27th ranked WR, and he only has one TD meaning his value hasn’t been super inflated. He should have a great game against the soft Dallas secondary, and if the game turns into a high-scoring affair, Moss will get a lot of targets. Surprisingly, he’s still Washington’s big-play guy at this point in his career, and I expect him to break a couple on Monday Night.

Santana Moss fantasy football Week 3 projection – 9 Catches for 140 Yards and 1 TD.

Other Start ‘em WRs for Week 3:

• Reggie Wayne – The only Colt player that will have a good week.
• Larry Fitzgerald – He is becoming more comfortable with Kolb…look out.
• AJ Green – I think he’s one of the top 5 talented WRs in the league already…and I’m not kidding. Just watch this. Plus, it looks like Andy Dalton knows that now as well.
• Steve Smith 1.0 – If Cam has a big day, Steve will have a big day.

Sit Em WR: Dwayne Bowe
Just a bad day to be a Chiefs fan. Cassel will most likely struggle, and San Diego will concentrate on shutting Bowe and the running game down. Last year against San Diego, Bowe combined for 2 catches and 16 yards…that’s the TOTAL for both games. Be very careful before Tasting the Dwayne Bowe this weekend.

Dwayne Bowe fantasy football Week Three projection – 3 Catches for 30 Yards.

Other Sit ‘em WRs for Week 3:

• Julio Jones – I still don’t think he’s that good. He may break out in week 8, but he’s way too inconsistent to be looked at this early in his career. Just click on this article for proof.
• Jeremy Maclin – He and DeSean Jackson are just too inconsistent…but I think it’s Jackson’s turn this week to have a big week and Maclin will be left out.
• Santonio Holmes – Keller and Plaxico are options 1 and 2 in the red zone for the Jets right now. And Greene is probably #3.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start em, Sit em Projections: Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer: Rob Gronkowski
This is a no-brainer. Hernandez is banged up and will miss a few games. Gronkowski may go for 400 yards in this offense right now.

Rob Gronkowski fantasy football Week 3 projection – 9 Catches for 145 Yards and 2 TDs.

Projected Worst Performer: Todd Heap
There is a reason that Baltimore let him go so easily…and you should let him go as well.

Todd Heap fantasy football Week Three projection – 0 Catches

Start Em TE: Brent Celek
If Vick is banged up and can’t go, or even if he is healthy but playing a little more conservatively, Celek should have a big game. Currently, he sits 30th overall in the TE rankings, but Celek owners should look forward to this Sunday.

Brent Celek fantasy football Week 3 projection – 8 Catches for 85 Yards and 1 TD.

Other Start ‘em TEs for Week 3:

• Dustin Keller – Quickly becoming the Sanchize’s favorite target.
• Tony Gonzalez – He’s still got a little left in the tank…I was wrong.
• Jermaine Gresham
• Owen Daniels – High scoring affair against New Orleans…Schaub will look to him often to beat the Saints’ blitz.

Sit Em TE: Dallas Clark
I just hate the matchup. Polomalu will be ranging all over the middle of the field, and Collins will be on his back for much of the game. Clark may be needed to pass block more than normal, and he just won’t be able to get into the game at all.

Dallas Clark fantasy football Week 3 projection – 5 Catches for 40 Yards and 1 Fumble

Other Sit ‘Em TEs for Week 3:

• Scott Chandler – Don’t chase Touchdowns! They will end up disappointing you.
• Jimmy Graham – One of those weeks that Brees finds everybody but him.
• Ben Watson – The classic “I scored a TD early and I look better than I really am” guy. Take it out, and you have a guy with 6 catches for 61 yards. Not terrible…but not a starter in a league with less than 25 teams.

Good Luck in Week Three!  As always, feel free to ask questions in the comment section, or on my twitter (@The_Dr_Twitch) or to our MSF Fantasy Twitter account (@FantasyMSF).

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Stay caught up with all of our Week 3 fantasy football analysis:

• Week 3 Start em, Sit em Projections
• Week 3 Waiver Wire Advice
• Week 3 Stats to Know
• Week 3 Fantasy Football Talk Start/Sit Podcast
• Week 3 Player Rankings at QB, RB, WR, TE, K, and D/ST
• Week 3 Sleeper Picks

You only have one job left to do: start the right guys.

Nothing could be worse than having an awesome team…on your bench.

Each and every one of us has a fantasy sob story or two, and it’s almost a guarantee that one of them revolves around sitting the wrong guy.

So who are you going to start this week?

If you haven’t signed up yet to participated in the $250 MSF Week 1 Freeroll Challenge at FanDuel, click here to do so now! (For more information click here.)

It’s free to enter, you get to compete against MSF writers and readers, and $250 in prizes will be awarded. What could be better than that?

Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Em, Sit Em Lineup Advice

Obviously, if you have Adrian Peterson, Tom Brady, or Larry Fitzgerald, he will be in your starting lineup. But who is going to have a better week THIS week? Pierre Garcon or Malcom Floyd? Mike Tolbert or Shonn Greene?

Overall season predictions won’t help you win this week; so as we do every week here at Midwest Sports Fans, here are the guys to start and sit in Week 1.

One theme you will see this week is that I am really downplaying two groups of players: players on new teams and rookies.

While Julio Jones, AJ Green, and Mark Ingram may very well become great players, I just don’t see them doing much early on this season. Rookies already have a hard enough time adjusting to the NFL. Now you add a four month lockout, and it’s almost an insurmountable deficit they have to make up.

(The “Projected Worst Performer” – a new wrinkle in our Start/Sit coverage this year, is obviously chosen from among guys who will be in their team’s starting lineup this week. Of course a guy like Brady Quinn will be a poor performer…but hopefully, nobody will be starting him this week.)

As always, follow me on twitter @The_Dr_Twitch and @FantasyMSF for updates on this week’s fantasy goings on and to get any last minute lineup questions answered.  Or feel free to comment at the bottom and I will try to answer as many of your thoughts as possible.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Em, Sit Em – Quarterbacks

Projected Top Performer: Philip Rivers

My overall #1 QB should have a fantastic week at home against a soft Minnesota secondary. He may get sacked a few times, but he will also hit on at least two or three home run balls.

Philip Rivers Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 340 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Projected Worst Performer: Chad Henne

I actually don’t think he’s as bad as everybody thinks, but the Patriots should win this game walking away and their new and improved defense will absolutely love pinning their ears back and getting to the QB throughout the entire second half.

Chad Henne Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 150 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs

Now for the tough calls:

Week One Start Em QB: Ben Roethlisberger

Don’t be too scared by the “vaunted” Baltimore defense. A quick look at their lineup reveals a lot of flashy names and not nearly as much production. While Ed Reed will still be running around and may even come up with an interception, Big Ben and his new and improved passing attack should be flying on all cylinders. Look for Baltimore to do a reasonably good job stuffing the run and Pittsburgh to adjust accordingly by throwing the ball all over the field.

Ben Roethlisberger Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 285 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other Start Em QBs for Week 1:

• Tom Brady (#2 by a hair)
• Colt McCoy (home against Cincinnati)
• Matthew Stafford (will explode at Tampa)
• Matt Schaub (no run against Indy? No problem)
• Jay Cutler (shootout with Atlanta)
• Matt Ryan (see Cutler, Jay).

Week One Sit Em QB: Tony Romo

It pains me – as a guy that drafted Tony Romo and NO OTHER QBs in his own league – to say this, but Romo will not have a good Week 1. I’m actually very high on Romo this year, and have him as the sixth ranked overall QB, but I don’t think he will be able to overcome everything in New York Sunday night.

Not only is the Jets’ pass defense one of the best in the league, but you also have the whole “9-11” thing. A few years ago, the Saints played the Falcons at home, shortly after Hurricane Katrina. It wouldn’t have mattered if the All-Madden Team walked out onto that field that day…the Saints weren’t losing. I have the feeling it will be more of the same in Week 1.

Look for Romo to have a decent amount of yards, but break down late near the red zone.

Tony Romo Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 245 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other Sit em QBs for Week 1:

• Peyton Manning (obvious reasons)
• Michael Vick (on the road…in a dome…against an underrated defense…without a few weapons)
• Josh Freeman (Detroit’s line will be too much)
• Mark Sanchez (he’s just not good)
• Joe Flacco (Pittsburgh has his number).

Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Em, Sit Em – Running Backs

Projected Top Performer: Jamaal Charles

To be honest, Charles would be my #1 running back if I wasn’t so scared about him getting hurt or worn down halfway through the season. Good thing for Charles owners he opens up the season at home against the Buffalo Bills.

He is probably the best home-run threat in football outside of Chris Johnson, and if your league rewards big plays, Charles could REALLY stand out in Week 1. I could easily see Charles rushing for over 200 yards, a-la Arian Foster last year against the Colts.

Jamaal Charles Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 22 carries for 190 yards and 2 TDs; 4 Receptions for 39 yards and 1 TD

Projected Worst Performer: Fred Jackson

There’s just not a lot going Jackson’s way this weekend. First, he’s not that good. Secondly, he has no quarterback so an already good run defense in Kansas City will be able to load the box against him. Third, CJ Spiller will probably be a better matchup against the Chiefs’ defense so FJax will get less touches. Fourth, I expect KC to win handily. And fifth, he’s not that good.

Fred Jackson Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 9 carries for 23 yards; 2 catches for 12 yards

Week One Start Em RB: Tim Hightower

He recently won the starting running back job in Washington and will be rushing in Mike Shanahan’s famous “zone blocking” scheme. You might be scared to start him week one because of Ryan Torain and Roy Helu; and I agree that eventually, as Torain and Helu will end up stealing carries from Hightower, but not until later on in the year. Helu is still a rookie that missed an entire summer’s worth of practice. Shanahan will need to rely on a running back that can pick up the Giants’ pass rush and Hightower will do the job. Also, the Giants’ rush defense is surprisingly mediocre, and Washington will rely heavily on the running game as long as John Beck and Rex Grossman are their quarterbacks. Don’t be scared to start Hightower early on in the season as the talented Helu struggles to learn the offense.

Tim Hightower Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 18 carries for 92 yards and 1 TD; 5 catches for 34 yards and 1 TD

Other Start Em RBs for Week 1:

• Peyton Hillis (home against Cincinnati)
• DeAngelo Williams (look for him to get a lot more touches now that he is healthy and Fox has moved on)
• LeSean McCoy (only player for Philly that will have a good game in a shocking loss at St. Louis)
• Chris Johnson (I think he sends a message to all the “fake” Tennessee fans).

Week One Sit Em RB: Ray Rice

Rice is my #4 ranked RB, and he will have a fantastic year, but facts are facts: nobody runs against the Steelers. Rice will probably be a decent threat out of the backfield, and may end up getting close to 80 yards on the ground and in the air, but that’s not exactly what you are hoping for out of your #1 running back.

You may not have much depth at the RB position, and you may feel compelled to start your first round draft pick…but don’t be scared. Nobody runs against the Steelers, not even Rice. Sit him with confidence, and try to hit a home run with a wild card.

Ray Rice Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 12 carries for 42 yards; 4 catches for 18 yards

Other Sit Em RBs for Week 1:

• Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh will begin throwing early and often against the Ravens)
• Knowshon Moreno (as soon as McGahee gets hurt, Moreno will break out…but the platoon system will hurt his value early on)
• Arian Foster (obvious reasons)
• Colts running backs (Houston will load up against the run with no Peyton Manning)
• LeGarrette Blount (Two words: Ndomakong Suh).

Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Em, Sit Em – Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer: Larry Fitzgerald

Kevin Kolb isn’t great…but he is better than me…and that’s really all Fitzgerald needs this season…especially against the Panthers in Week One.

Larry Fitzgerald Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 11 catches for 176 yards and 2 TDs

Projected Worst Performer: Dwayne Bowe

Not that it will hurt the Chiefs in any way…but I really don’t expect KC to be throwing the ball around too much against the Bills. Look for them to march out to a comfortable lead, and Bowe to take a backseat in the offense, at least for one day.

Dwayne Bowe Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 4 catches for 35 yards

Week One Start ‘Em WR: Reggie Wayne

Yes, I’m serious.

The Colts will definitely struggle in Week 1, especially without Peyton Manning. Houston will almost definitely stack the box to stuff the run, and if they get an early lead, the Colts will be forced to throw the ball a lot. Whether it’s Painter or Collins, one thing is for sure: Wayne will have a good day.

He has been outspoken in his defense of Painter, and Painter has clearly trusted him in the pre-season. Clark, Collie, Garcon, and Gonzalez may have bad days, but you can start Reggie with confidence this week.

Reggie Wayne Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 14 catches for 145 yards

Other Start Em WRs for Week 1:

• Calvin Johnson (statement win for Detroit)
• Mario Manningham (he and Nicks will take turns having mammoth games…it’s Super Mario Week in Week 1)
• Brandon Marshall (Dolphins will be playing from behind so he’ll rack up yards)
• Percy Harvin (probably 8 catches…and he gets to return the ball against San Diego)
• Roddy White (obvious reasons)
• Johnny Knox (shootout in Chicago).

Week One Sit ‘Em WR: Dez Bryant

It was either him or Miles Austin, and I think Revis Island will settle on Bryant for most of the night. Romo still trusts Miles Austin a little more, and will look to him and Jason Witten on hot routes while trying to escape pressure all night.

It’s definitely possible that Bryant will be able to make something happen in the return game on Sunday night, but if not, look for Bryant to have a frustratingly poor opening night.

Dez Bryant Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 2 catches for 14 yards; 1 rush for -2 yards

Other Sit Em WRs for Week 1:

• Greg Jennings (just a weird game for the Packers…I think their rushing attack and role players get more touches against Sean Payton and Gregg Williams’ D)
• Anquan Boldin (because Joe Flacco’s awful)
• AJ Green (not yet…just wait for him)
• Santonio Holmes (because Mark Sanchez is awful)
• Mike Thomas (new QB in Jax).

Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Em, Sit Em – Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer: Jason Witten

Romo and his best friend will connect on a lot of underneath passes all game long. If Witten can even get into the end zone once, he should have a huge day.

Jason Witten Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 12 catches for 125 yards and 1 TD

Week One Start Em TE: Aaron Hernandez

I have been very outspoken about Hernandez, so I will just keep it simple with facts: nobody in the entire league has caught more balls than him this pre-season; he’s the more talented of the two tight ends in New England and wants to prove it this season; and Tom Brady will be throwing the ball all over the place against Miami.

Aaron Hernandez Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 8 catches for 110 yards and 2 TDs

Other Start Em TEs for Week 1:

• Vernon Davis (against Seattle)
• Owen Daniels (against the Colts)
• Jimmy Graham (GB shuts down the Saints’ WRs and Graham gets a lot of touches)
• Greg Olsen (Cam Newton’s new best friend)
• Brandon Pettigrew (everyone in Detroit will have a good fantasy week).

Week One Sit Em TE: Jermichael Finley

Finley has been getting lots of love this season because in the past he’s been a TD machine. However, Aaron Rodgers adapted quite well without him, and with the extended lockout I think it will take Finley a few weeks to find his niche in the offense again. Finley won’t have a HORRIBLE week, but he won’t be blowing anyone away either if you another good option.

Jermichael Finley Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 5 catches for 43 yards

Other Sit Em TEs for Week 1:

• Zach Miller (normally, bad QBs equate to good days for TEs…but Tarvaris Jackson hasn’t even attained the “bad QB” level yet)
• Marcedes Lewis (I just don’t think he’s good, and the new QB will be rough for him)
• Tony Gonzalez (you are starting him for his name, and nothing else…so don’t start him
• Dallas Clark (rough day for the Colts and Dallas)

So there you have it. The first Start Em, Sit Em post for 2011 is in the books. The comment section is now yours.

Best of luck in Week 1 everybody!

What? You hadn’t heard yet? Yeah, he’s got a bum ankle. He’s been in a walking boot all week. Hasn’t practiced. The streak – the streak – is in jeopardy.

Look, let’s just get the Brett Favre portion of this injury update out of the way right off the bat. I will believe that Brett Favre is not going to start on Sunday when Tarvaris Jackson is under center and has taken the first snap of the game. Until then, I don’t care if practices or doesn’t practice. I don’t care if he says he’s going to play or not. I don’t care if Brad Childress says Favre will play or not.

If we’ve learned one thing from all of the Favre nonsense over the past few years, it’s this: no matter what, when the issue is Brett Favre playing football, expect him to play. That’s it, it’s that simple.

When you can find me one, just one, example of the opposite being true, then we’ll talk. Until then, you simply have to assume he’ll play – the only debate is over how well he’ll play. For the record, I have Favre ranked #21 in this week’s player rankings.

So there’s your Brett Favre injury update. Now onto all of the other Week 8 injury updates for all fantasy-relevant offensive players.

Joseph Addai remains out for the Colts with a neck injury. He could miss a few weeks. Similarly, Austin Collie is out after have surgery on his hand. He will also likely miss a few weeks.

Stepping in for Addai will be, well, we’re not quite sure yet. Donald Brown is supposed to be the guy, but he continues to be slowed by a hamstring injury and still hasn’t practiced. WTF Donald!? The problem here is that the Colts play Monday night, so you need to know who is starting for them Sunday or use an alternative. The best case would be for you to snatch up Mike Hart and then just start whoever ends up playing. At this point, Hart is a decent guy to have with the inability of Addai and Brown to stay healthy.

Stepping in for Austin Collie could be Anthony Gonzalez, another guy who hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Gonzo has practiced all week and should play. How well? Who knows. We haven’t seen him on the field in a while.

Concerning me as I go through the injury report is that Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon, my top two WRs for Week 8 thanks to the matchup versus the Texans, are both on there with hamstring injuries. Garcon did not practice Thursday. Wayne practiced some. Both are expected to play, so I wouldn’t worry about it too much. With the injuries the Colts have had, look for Peyton Manning to lean on these two guys heavily against a Texans’ pass D that is simply awful.

Carson Palmer has not been practicing because of a hip issue. He is expected to play Sunday against the Dolphins, and should have another solid day. He’ll be throwing to Terrell Owens who is on the injury report but also expected to play.

Dexter McCluster has the dreaded high ankle sprain and will likely be out a few weeks. Bench him for now, if you were planning to play him at all anyway.

Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see the rest of the Week 8 injury updates, including Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd, Steven Jackson, DeAngelo Williams, and many more.

And he has two more impressive ones right around the corner.

MANNING FOR 60

Indianapolis quarterback PEYTON MANNING has 59 300-yard passing games in his career. With 300 yards this week against the Chiefs, Manning can become the third quarterback in NFL history with 60 such games.

The most 300-yard passing games by a quarterback in NFL history:

*Active

MANNING TO WAYNE FOR 64

Manning and wide receiver REGGIE WAYNE have combined for 63 touchdowns.  With one more Manning-to-Wayne touchdown, the tandem can pass the former Colts duo of JOHNNY UNITAS and RAYMOND BERRY for the fifth-most touchdowns by a quarterback-wide receiver tandem in NFL history.

Manning and former Colts wide receiver MARVIN HARRISON hold the record among QB-WR teammates with 112 touchdowns.

*Active

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As you know, Jerod is participating in the 2010 P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League, which is part of the Take It To The House program. In addition to competing for a trip to the Super Bowl, one of the perks Jerod received for participating was getting to spend a day at the NFL headquarters in New York. And that led to getting on the NFL’s media email list.

The NFL circulates interesting statistical and injury-related tidbits on a daily basis. Since we know that your appetite for NFL info is as insatiable as ours, we post them here for your enjoyment.

To get this info ever quicker, follow http://twitter.com/nflfootballinfo.

Update: 2/7/10: The latest on Reggie Wayne, per Suzy Kolber on ESPN, is that he is fine and good to go this evening. Exhale Colts fans. Now, as for Dwight Freeney…

All week, Colts fans and Super Bowl observers have been playing close attention to the injury status of DE Dwight Freeney.

Yesterday, it looked like another Colts star might be added to the questionable list for Sunday night.

WR Reggie Wayne, among the most productive receivers of this decade and one of the most underrated players in the NFL, had to leave Friday’s practice early after aggravating a right knee injury.

So how serious is the injury and will Wayne be on the field Sunday night?

According to SI.com’s article about the Reggie Wayne injury, Colts head coach Jim Caldwell said that Wayne “hurt the soft tissue below his knee cap.” But the injury does not appear to be all that serious and yes, of course, he will be playing on Sunday.

The knee injury that Wayne re-aggravated is one that he’s been fighting through all year. Considering his numbers – 100 catches, 1,264 yards, 10 TDs – I’d say he fought through it pretty well.

Reggie Wayne’s injury status is officially listed as probable and you can safely expect him to be on the field and ready go Sunday night.

Wayne has a tough matchup with Saints CB Jabari Greer, so don’t be surprised if his numbers are not overly impressive. He’ll undoubtedly have a solid game and come up with some big catches, but there will be plenty of openings for Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, and Austin Collie as well, and we know that Peyton Manning is not bashful about exploiting those.

But Colts fan, it does not look like there is any reason to worry about the Reggie Wayne injury reports. By all accounts he should be fine. You and Peyton can sleep a little easier tonight.

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* – Reggie Wayne injury update photo credit: PhotoBucket.com via win726

The coaching staff has experienced the most turnover, starting with the departure of head coach Tony Dungy, who was replaced by protégé and former assistant coach Jim Caldwell. Several other coaching changes also have been made in addition to Caldwell taking over.

Follow the links to StubHub for great deals on Indianapolis Colts tickets and all 2009 NFL tickets.

Longtime offensive coordinator Tom Moore retired as well, as did offensive line coach Howard Mudd, although both were brought back to the team before the start of training camp as “special advisors.” In addition, defensive coordinator Ron Meeks was replaced by Larry Coyer, who has been assigned the challenge of turning a mundane defense into at least a respectable one. And the most scrutinized position of late is that of new special teams coach Ray Rychlesky, who replaced Russ Purnell.

Other less notable coaching changes also have been made this offseason in an attempt to correct what was viewed by many as a subpar 2008 season despite a sixth straight 12+ win season, as well as a wildcard playoff berth, the first round ejection by 8-8 San Diego that capped the 2008 season.

As to players on the field, the draft brought much needed help at running back and on the defensive line.

The first round brought the Colts RB Donald Brown from Connecticut, who will hopefully boost a subpar running game and provide a sort of “Thunder and Lightning” combination between he and incumbent starter Joseph Addai.

Defensive tackles Fili Moala (Southern Cal) and Terrance Taylor (Michigan) were aquired in the second and fourth rounds, respectively. while receiver Austin Collie (BYU) was added in the fourth as well. Pat McAfee, a punter, was drafted to replace long time booter Hunter Smith who has found a new home in Washington with the Redskins.

Let’s break down each of the three units as the Colts get ready for the regular season, which is now less than two weeks away.

The Offense (The Good)

Of course any team with Peyton Manning will be successful offensively. The good news is that Manning’s knee is at full strength, and we won’t have to wait a hand full of games in the regular season to watch the timing get ironed out, as happened last year.

Joseph Addai has shown signs of returning to his former self in the preseason thus far, and rookie running back Donald Brown continues to impress. The question remains, however, will the offensive line be able to consistently open holes for these two feature backs to run through?

The line is healthier than last year, but there is a glaring issue in the worst possible spot: Peyton’s blind side. OT Tony Ugoh has been replaced as a starter by Charlie Johnson, due to the fact that no one on the coaching staff believes that Ugoh is working his hardest, nor living up to the potential his draft position and salary would suggest. However, Johnson has not been much better thus far, with the Colt’s O-line giving up a horrific three sacks in just the first possession alone of the first preseason game against the Vikings.

The most intriguing position on the Colts offense comes at wide receiver. With the departure of long time #1 receiver Marvin Harrison, the Colts are looking to fill a significant void of experience and production. Reggie Wayne will become the #1 WR (and basically was last year) while 3rd-year man Anthony Gonzalez will take over the #2 spot.

But who will be the #3 WR in the slot?

Dallas Clark, the Colts starting tight end, will no doubt be put into the slot with various personnel groupings. Through two weeks of the preseason, we have seen Pierre Garcon and rookie Austin Collie making great plays and looking to be solid contenders for the slot when the Colts go 3-wide. 

Tom Santi and Jacob Tamme look to have locked up the backup roles to starting TE Dallas Clark.

The Defense (The Bad)

Amidst all of the many questions that surround one of the NFL’s worst third down defenses is, what about Bob? It’s been a while since Bob Sanders has played an entire season, but when he is in the lineup we all know that his presence is invaluable as a stabilizing and inspirational force  in the Colts’ D.

The linebackers looks solid, anchored by Gary Brackett, Phillip Wheeler, and Clint Session, but still seems somewhat weak in certain coverage and run schemes and situation.

The defensive line seems to have improved, adding a couple of 300+ pounders, but the injury to Raheem Brock could make things a little more challenging. The pass rush, anchored by DE’s Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, seems as strong as ever; but, can the Colts stop the run?

Only time will tell if Larry Coyer can make a major difference replacing Ron Meeks as the leader of what was ranked as one of the worst run defenses in the league last year, as well as one of the worst defenses at getting off of the field on third down.

A lot of questions remain for the Colts on defense, and only time will tell how good the D can be in 2009.

Special Teams (The Ugly)

Where do I start with the special teams?

The Colts can boast that they have one of the most reliable placekickers in the league in Adam Vinatieri. However, the lack of touchbacks, the poor kick coverage, and poor kick returns that are often riddled with turnovers and bad decisions, have plagued the Colts for years and made both the offense and defense have to work much harder to attain victory.

They say that defense wins championships, but I personally believe that special teams plays just as important a role, if not slightly more. There must be change. There must be improvement. Need I say more? Ray Rychlesky, the pressure is on from Day 1.

2009 Outlook

This season’s schedule seems a little soft at first glance, but there could be teams that were weak last season that may be more of a challenge this year. The Colts will host the Jaguars, Seahawks, 49ers, Texans, Patriots, Titans, Broncos, and Jets, and will find themselves traveling to the Dolphins, Cardinals, Titans, Rams, Ravens, Texans, Jaguars, and Bills.

Will the Colts make it to 12 wins for a seventh consecutive season? Las Vegas thinks not. The over-under for the Colts is currently 10. My prediction is somewhere between 11 and 12 wins, but, of course, that’s why they play the games!

There has been a lot of change in Indianapolis this offseason, and the Colts have more competition in the AFC then ever before. Only time will tell if Peyton Manning will win his second Super Bowl, or perhaps a record 4th MVP. He’s Peyton, so anything is possible.

Either way, here’s hoping on another fun ride and successful season for the Colts — one of the NFL’s best and most consistent team over the course of this decade.

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* – Bob Sanders / Marlin Jackson photo credit: NFL Gridiron Gab

The latest injury problem for the Colts appears to be the knee of WR Reggie Wayne. There were conflicting reports on whether Reggie Wayne participated in practice on Thursday. One newspaper said he did practice, while the Colts’ official website listed Wayne as not having participated. Tony Dungy appears to think that Reggie Wayne will be okay to play on Sunday, but this appears to be one those game time decisions that can frustrate the hell out of fantasy owners. We’ll update you with more information on Reggie Wayne as it becomes available.

On an even more sour note for Colts fans, CB Marlin Jackson is out for the season. He hurt his right knee in Wednesday’s practice and was placed on injured reserve. The loss of Marlin Jackson is significant for the Colts, as he has been a defensive stalwart for the team ever since arriving from Michigan. According to NFL.com, the injury to Marlin Jackson was a torn ACL and a damaged meniscus that occurred during a no-pad, non-contact drill. Tim Jennings will likely serve as Marlin Jackson’s replacement.

The frustrating aspect of this for the Colts, in addition to the general frustration at yet another significant injury, is that it comes at a time when they appeared to finally be getting somewhat healthy, especially in the defensive secondary.

Bob Sanders and Kelvin Hayden both should be in the lineup on Sunday versus the Patriots. Hayden did not practice on Thursday, but Tony Dungy seems to think he’ll be fine. Bob Sanders was a full participant in Thursday’s practice.

Running back Joseph Addai appears poised to split carries with Dominic Rhodes this weekend, as Addai has somewhat recovered from his hamstring injury. Joseph Addai does not appear to be 100% healthy yet, but with Dominic Rhodes being slightly hobbled by a knee tweak of his own, it is a huge bonus for the Colts to have Addai back in the fold. Joseph Addai did participate fully in practice on Thursday.

For the latest news on the Colts prodigious injury list, stay tuned to our Indianapolis Colts news page. The game on Sunday is pretty much a must-win for the Colts, and they already seem a step slow and out of rhythm as a team. They need every healthy body they can get.

[tags]indianapolis colts, nfl, nfl injuries[/tags]

For those of you new to the weekly column, which began last week, I will post several players each week and rate them as being on fire or on ice. My fellow writers at Midwest Sports Fans, and our loyal readers as well, will then chime in with their own thoughts on the selected players. Keep in mind this is evaluated from a fantasy football perspective.

So, who is on fire or on ice for Week 8?

The Cleveland Browns Offense- On Ice. I argued this point last week when my fellow writers called me crazy for giving them the same title last week, and this past weekend against Washington was exactly why. One game does not mean squat. They should have produced the same numbers all year that they put up against the Giants, and did not. Until they prove to me that they can sustain the same high intensity offense for two to three weeks in a row, they are cold as ICE. What’s funny is the one factor different from the Giants game versus this weekend’s game was the addition of Kellen Winslow. The offense posted better runs with Steve Heiden blocking. Maybe Kellen Winslow should be moved to a slot position and let Heiden help with the run blocking. Just an observation.

The New Orleans Saints Offense- On Fire. Don’t let one bad game fool you, or the loss of Reggie Bush. This offense is still extremely talented as long as Drew Brees is under center. This offense will not look the same as it does when Reggie Bush is playing, but they were successful in his absence last year.

The Baltimore Ravens Defense- On Fire. After getting absolutely torched against the Indianapolis Colts, they put their top ranked “D” back onto the field in a dominating fashion against the Miami Dolphins. That should continue versus the Oakland Raiders and the Cleveland Browns, if the Browns still can’t find their identity by Week 9.

Steven Jackson and Marc Bulger- On Fire. This is a huge understatement; should be “inferno”. Steven Jackson was worth 39 fantasy football points last week and Bulger is looking like the old Bulger again. It’s amazing what firing your head coach can do for your ball club. Since Jim Haslet took over, the Rams are 2-0 with two very impressive wins against the Cowboys and Redskins!

In closing, the Indianapolis Colts are beginning to remind me of the Cleveland Browns offensively. They have more talent than 90% of the NFL on offense and were destroyed this past week. If you have Colts on your team like Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, and Reggie Wayne, you can’t sit them unless you have super studs to cover their starting spot; but what gives? These teams are capable of dropping serious points on their opponents, which means fantasy football victories for their owners, but not last week.

Braylon Edwards catches insane balls thrown to him that he should never catch, but drops wide open perfectly thrown balls? I don’t understand that one. I am also lost as to why Romeo Crennel did not pull Derek Anderson after such a miserable first half for Brady Quinn. I find it very hard to believe that Brady Quinn would produce the same miserable numbers which D.A. posted in the first half of the Redskins game. That was as ignorant as Red Sox Manager Terry Francona leaving Jon Lester in the game while he was getting throttled in the fifth inning. Both ended with the same result: a loss.

Look for specific insight into the upcoming NFL week on Thursday in the Fantasy Football Sleeper Focus here at www.midwestsportsfans.com

Kurt Fraschetti

[tags]sports forum, fantasy football, reggie bush, cleveland browns, st. louis rams[/tags]