UFC 98 Preview, Odds, and Precitions: S@!t Hits the Fan

We are merely days away from UFC 98 and that can mean only one thing: I’ve been wasting money making predictions about winners and losers online. Here ladies and gents, is my guide to you for UFC 98!

Lets get the where’s and whens out of the way right now:

• UFC 98 Date and Start Time: May 23, 2009 at 7:00 pm PT / 10:00 pm ET
• UFC 98 Viewing: PPV
• UFC 98 Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
• UFC 98 Tickets: Buy & Sell UFC 98 Tickets at StubHub
• UFC Gear: Click Here to Get Up to 65% off at the UFC Store!
• UFC Gear: UFC Store Best Sellers – Click here to check it out!

I have been doing my research on this event for the last month and I am still not sure how these lines came to be, so consider this me going head to head against the odds makers. Also interesting about this event: the number of times the line up has changed. There have been six big named fighters preciously scheduled to fight here and each one has gotten injured causing a scramble to fill in spots. As a result I am only making two predictions.

(If you don’t understand how to read betting lines, go here and read an overly long explanation I wrote a long time ago involving Mike Tyson’s Punch Out)

UFC 98 Preview: Evans v Machida Odds and Prediction

“Sugar” Rashad Evans (+160) Vs. Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (-200)

These are two undefeated fighters, neither of then gets hit very much when they fight, and both have been criticized for their stand up game in the past. Also, both come off of amazing KO victories. Lyoto knocked Thiago SIlva into another dimension back at UFC 94, and Evans won the Light-Heavy title by dribbling Forrest Griffin’s head on the mat like a basketball back at UFC 92.

Lyoto’s strength is his karate. This means he works angles and counter strikes. He isn’t going to chase after Evans nor is he going to be very keen to go to the ground with him. I can see Lyoto trying to keep this standing and continuously moving away from Rashad like he has swine flu. Lyoto’s best chance at winning this fight is for it to go to decision like 4 of his 6 UFC fights have.

Evans’ strengths lay in his wrestling and his much improved stand up. He will start the fight tentative and try not to move into Lyoto’s counters. I see Rashad eventually getting frustrated and shooting in for take downs. I also see him succeeding in getting the fight to the ground. Rashad will probably try to ground and pound if that happens; scratch that, when that happens.

MY PICK: Rashad Evans TKO Round 4

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UFC 98 Preview: Hughes v Serra Odds and Prediction

Matt Hughes (-250) Vs. Matt Serra (+190)

Two old men enter, one old man leaves. That’s how I feel about this fight.

Will I watch it? Yes. Will it be fun? Maybe. But at the end of the day what does it mean?

Serra is 34 and Hughes is 35, in pro-fighter terms, that makes them both Nintendo 64’s. Sure they were fun back in their time, and yeah you can go back every now and then to play WCW Vs. NWO, but at the end of the day you would rather play the new Mario Kart.

I keep reading people picking Huges because they feel he can bully Serra around and throw him all over the ring. I see this happening a few times, but for some reason I see Hughes getting tapped out by some good old fashion Jiu-Jitsu. The last few times I have seen Hughes fight he hasn’t been the Matt of old. He has dropped 3 of his last 4 and he hasn’t fought in over a year. This is usually the place where I would mention that Serra has a win over Georges St Pierre, and look there I did it, but Hughes does also.

This fight is going to come down to which guy gets frustrated. These two hate each other. Matt Hughes is outspoken in his dislike for Serra, and Serra has made it known he is no fan of crotchety old man Hughes and his redneck ways.

MY PICK: Matt Serra Submission Round 1

Due to the aforementioned plague of injuries and the appearent curse of UFC 98 those are the only fights I have any sort of insight on. While there are a few more interesting fights, there is nothing that I find overly compelling or surprising (at least in Vegas odds). I will mention that I expect “Professor X” Xavier Foupa-Pokam to win, and I know some sites had him as a dog.

MMA Roundup: Quick UFC 92 Review and Notes

UFC 92 has come and gone and so has my gambling account. Let me tell you, there is nothing like telling your fiancee that there is no going out for sushi for a few weeks because Frank Mir learned how to punch.

Ultimate 2008 was an entertaining card. Personally, I though UFC 91 was a better broadcast but if you bought UFC 92 you definately got your money worth. If you look at “safe bets” UFC 92 took your account. I went 1-3 on my predictions, and the one I hit on was a Vegas underdog.

Rampage, Frank Mir, Rashad Evans, and Cheick Kongo all won by decisive knockouts. Of that group I only hit on Rampage. Too bad I took him in a parlay with Forrest Griffin.

While on the UFC 92 card, I have one question… Has Kongo ever been in a fight where he didn’t deliver one obviously deliberate cock punch? His fight against M. Al Turk saw Al Turk deliver one accidental knee to the groin. AT that point 5 of the people in my room made joks that all suggested we knew Kongo wouldnt allow someone to get by with his trademarked knee to the nuts. Sure enough during the next clench Kongo got himself into position, looked down to make sure where his knee was, then lifted Al Turn off his feet via a knee to the junk.

I think it’s time to start fining guys for repeated rules violations. I’m not talking about the occasional accidental kick to the groin, thumb to the eye, or accidental blow to the back of the head. I’m talking about patterns that arise and violate the rules whenever a certin fighter fights. Kongo has built a career using knees to the balls, every fight there is at least one. If I were a heavyweight I wouldn’t want to fight the guy, not because he’s good, but because I saw what happened to every other guy he has fought.

Moving on to new news it appears the door is open for Andrei “The Pitbull” Arlovski to return to the UFC. Dana White was quoted this week as saying that Arlovski is the one who got away. Andrei wanted to do some boxing and stuff outside UFC and Dana wanted Arlovski all to himself. I would look for Andrei to start talking with Dana seriously after he his upcoming Affliction bout against Fedor Emelianenko on January 24. As for that bout, I’ll take Arlovski, I dont care how great Fedor is or was, there is just something special about Andrei’s fanged mouthpiece and that smile which makes me pick him every time. Side note: as soon as I saw Rashad Evans was wearing a fanged mouth piece against Forrest Griffin I knew my money was on the wrong fighter. One of my rules is never bet against the fangs.

In other Dana White news, it is reported that he may be interested in bringing back Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic. It was reported on Cagepotato.com that Dana said (On Best Damn Sports Show) if Cro Cop wins his New Years eve freakshow fight against Hong Man Choi he will be welcomed back in the UFC. Adding more fuel to this fire, Cro COp still has his cage up in his training facility. Now, I dont want to run with speculation, but UFC needs heavyweights. Cro Cop is a marketable heavyweight, even if he went 1-2 in his UFC stint and had a horrible 2008 (Hey who didn’t?), he is still a former top 5 heavyweight who has crazy knock out power. I’m not saying this will happen, I’m just saying I would pay to watch Mirko fight anyone, especially if he is coming in with a point to prove.

Money Lines for UFC 92 – Money Well Spent?

Before I start this article I want to make clear I don’t endorse gambling. Not because I don’t like it, but because I am very bad at it. Sure i go to Vegas twice a year but that is beside my point. In these rough economic times one should be saving money under their bed cushions, in the sock drawer, or in a Rocky 5 DVD case (No one would ever dare open a copy of Rocky 5). All that being said, Vegas and odds makers are pretty good at knowing who is going to win, so with that in mind I am going to take you through the money lines for UFC 92.

For you experienced degenerates who know how to read money lines, skip to the next paragraph, the rest of you read on. A money line has a + or a – in front of it. If there is a + it means that person or team is

supposed to lose. If there is a – then they are the favorite to win. The number following the + or -

indicates what you would win or lose. A typical lines reads like this: Mike Tyson -200 Vs Little Mac +700. That means if you bet on Tyson (the favorite), and he won, you would have to wager $200 in order to win $100. If you bet $100 on Little Mac (the underdog), and he won, you would win $700. Hope that helps.

I gave some predictions at the beginning of the month, if you want to check them out go here. Now I am going to look at the top three lines, give my opinion, pick an upset, then post the lines for the rest of the card.

Quintin “Rampage” Jackson +110 V. Wanderlei “The Ax Murder” Silva -140 I keep seeing this line change. Everything points to Rampage getting his third beating by Wande, but something tells me he is going to win this fight. He feels like his title was stolen from him, he dropped his old manager, went crazy, got himself together, joined a new fight camp in England, and now has what Micky would call “that Eye of the Tiger” again. Wanderlie on the other hand never lost his urge to … well… Ax Murder. He had a highlight reel knockout of Keith Jardine last time he fought, but before that he seemed to be on his way down. Silva does have two, count ‘em, two brutal KO and TKO victories over Jackson back in the Pride F/C years and he hasn’t recently been involved with tabloid scandals.

This line is so close it’s not really worth betting on Rampage unless you feel he is a lock. With Silva having been around the block a few times I wouldn’t feel right putting my money on him either.

My Pick: Rampage wins and makes some people very little money.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (Interm Champ) -350 Vs. Frank Mir +275 I’m not supposed to like Frank Mir. He’s cocky, doesn’t train hard, and makes light of serious situations. But damn it, he’s made me laugh a lot. As a result I hate to see him face Nogueria. There is just nothing funny about a man who can be beaten within one breath of death, then pull out a submission victory and do that on a regular basis. Nogueira is a freak of nature, the fact the guy can walk is a testament to how tough his skull is. Tim SIlvia pounded it until I though his hands were broke, and then what happened? Nog made that fat f… guy tap. Keep in mind, the winner of this fight will soon be facing Brock Lesnar to unify the heavyweight title.

The line on this is what it should be, I’d bet on the return of Corey Haim before I’d put money on Mir. Sure it’s tempting to throw a few bucks on him, but that’s money you’ll never see again.

My Pick: Big Nog chokes Mir out in 3.

Forrest Griffin (Champ) -130 Vs. Rashad Evans EVEN MONEY Wow, This is a close line. Ultimate Fighter Season 1 winner Vs. Ultimate Fighter Season 2 winner. This is getting my pick for fight of the night. I think Rashad Evans is turning into a hell of a fighter, and I think Forrest Griffin is a hell of a fighter. There is going to be a lot of take-downs followed by scrambles and stand up. Forrest has proven to be one of the toughest SOB’s in the history of the UFC. Everything from his T.U.F. final fight versus Stephen Bonner and his near upset over Tito Ortiz, to his controversial championship win over Rampage has proven that Forrest is the real deal. Rashad Evans has also proven himself worthy of the UFC and this title fight by taking Tito to a judges Draw and then knocking the hell outta Chuck Liddell.

If you bet on Rashad, and he wins, you double your money. To make any money on Forrest you don’t have to bet much more. This one is close enough you’re probably better served spending your gambling money on beer and just watching.

My Pick: Forrest retains by judges decision.

My Pick for random upset of the night goes to:

Mostapha Al Turk +250 Vs. Cheick Kongo -325 My only real reasoning for this is that Chuck seems overrated to me. Part of that is due to his fight against one of my favorite fighters (Cro Cop) in which he won after hitting Cro Cop in the junk about 8 times a round for three rounds. He has been impressive in one fight since then, but I have read some minor rumblings about Al Turk being an up and commer. So, don’t take my word for it, but I think Chuck “Dick Punch” Kongo goes down in round 1.

Here are the rest of the lines in no paticular order:

Yushin Okami -350 Vs. Dean Lister +275

Matt Hamill -500 Vs. Reese Andy +300

Ryo Chonan -170 Vs. Brad Blackburn+140

Dan Evensen +200 Vs. Pat Barry-250

CB Dollaway -150 Vs. Mike Massenzio +120

Antoni Hardonk -365 Vs. Mike Wessel +285

MMA Roundup: UFC 92 Preview and Predictions

It’s official, UFC 92 is my favorite UFC card ever. Here are my early top three picks for Ultimate 2008:

(Editor’s Note: UFC 92 takes place on December 27, 2008 live on Pay-Per-View from the MGM Grand.)

First we have my personal favorite fighter and monster truckowner in Quinton “Rampage the streets of LA” Jackson fighting Wanderlei “The Ax Murder” Silva (known around these parts as Clay Face).

Unless your an MMA, junkie you may not have heard about an organization known as Pride F/C, but these two fought there twice before. Both times Rampage got knocked out by Clay Faces’ knees.

Rampage is different now, and until he went crazy after his loss to Forrest Griffin, he was a more focused and better fighter then he had ever been. Clay Face on the other hand seemed to be on his way down the ranks until his brutal “grab him by the throat and punch him until he can’t move” beating of Keith “Overrated” Jardine.

My Pick – Rampage in 2nd via TKO

Also on this card we see former Heavyweight Champion Frank Mir fighting the Interim Heavyweight Champion “Minotaro” Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.

We all know the only reason this fight is happening is because they were the coaches of The Ultimate Fighter this season. More importantly, we also know that whoever wins has the daunting task of taking that interim title and facing Brock Lesnar to unify the heavyweight titles.

So in my estimation, whoever wins this fight is actually losing. That being said, these are two of the great submission artists in the heavyweight division. All of us BJJ fans out there this should find this to be a great match-up.

If you dont know who to cheer for look at it this way: Nogueira is like a zombie (credit goes to the video below and Frank Mir), and Mir has already beaten Lesnar. So If you don’t like Lesnar go for Mir; if you do like zombies go for Nogueira.

My Pick – Nogueira in 3rd vis submission after having his ass whipped by Mir for 2 1/2 rounds

The last fight I want to look at is the main event “Sugar” Rashad Evans Vs. Light Heavy Champ Forrest Griffin. I’m still a bit bitter about Griffin beating the common sense out of Rampage back in July and taking his title.

That being said, I like Forrest and think he comes off as a genuinely good guy who works as hard as anyone could to be the best at what he does. We all know the man can take a beating and keep on fighting. With Evans we don’t have a lot of history to work with. Yeah he’s the season 2 TUF winner, fought Ortiz to a draw, he started as a pure wrestler, and has since developed a stand-up game that seems to be one of the best in the sport.

Everyone talks about his knock out of Chuck Liddell, and while it was beautiful, it wasn’t that impressive. You have to be a Liddell fan boy or have never watched the sport to think that Liddell is half the fighter he used to be.

Let’s face it, Liddells‘ fight against an aging Clay Face was much closer then the UFC allows people to think it was, he got beat by “Over Rated” Jardine, and Rampage didn’t even let Chuck outta the first round. Not knowing that Evans was going to win would have been like not knowing you were 9 months pregnant.

When all is said and done, this should be an ultimate slug fest. Evans will try and take Griffin down, but Griffin wont let him and it will end up being toe to toe most of the fight.

My Pick – Forrest Griffin retains the 205lbs Belt by decision after having the snot pounded out of him

Here is a little video Preview: