As always, Jerod, Ryan, and Andy will be here with another episode of The Assembly Call as soon as the game ends with instant analysis and fan reaction.

IU-Purdue Gameday Info

• Date: Saturday, February 4th
• Time: 7:00 ET, 6:00 CT
• TV: BTN
• Announcers: Dave Revsine and Jimmy Jackson
• Point Spread: Purdue by 4.5
• Over-Under: 144
• KenPom Prediction: Indiana 73-72 with a 53% chance of winning
• Peegs: IU Gameday
• Inside the Hall: What to Expect – Purdue
• IU-Penn State live tweet coverage: @AssemblyCall
• Assembly Call IU Postgame Show: http://assemblycall.com/live

IU-Purdue Preview

Purdue

The Boilers come in losers of four of their last seven games, including a pair of home losses, but they have been idle since last Saturday when they picked up a nice road win at Northwestern.  Robbie Hummel hit the game winner and tallied 11 points, while Terone Johnson came up big with 14 points for Purdue.

Without E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, this Purdue team has a significantly different look than in years past on a number of fronts.  Offensively, the team has very limited production in the post and relies heavily on Robbie Hummel and Lewis Jackson.  Hummel leads the team with 15.2 points and 6.0 rebounds per game, but he’s hitting just 39.5 percent from the field.  He can step out and knock down three-pointers but has struggled from long range in conference play.

Jackson is the kind of quick point guard that has given Indiana trouble off the dribble.  He has battled back injuries of late, but he comes in averaging 10.2 points and a team-high 3.9 assists.  IU needs to keep him out of the lane where he can be dangerous at either finishing or kicking it out to open teammates.

Ryne Smith is the team’s designated sharpshooter and is hitting 41.8 percent from beyond the arc this season.  The Hoosiers allowed a number of Michigan players to get open looks from three-point range, and they cannot afford to lose track of Smith.  The aforementioned Terone Johnson has shown flashes this season, while veteran D.J. Byrd has been a solid contributor off the bench.

The Boilers have struggled with their shooting in conference play, hitting 33.9 percent of their three-pointers, 47.6 percent of their two-pointers, and a league-worst 64.3 percent from the line.  They rank eighth in free throw rate in league play and 10th in offensive rebounding percentage, but they do boast the lowest turnover rate in the nation.  As a result, the Hoosiers can’t afford to gamble on defense and get themselves out of position.  They also need to do a better job of stopping dribble penetration and not allowing uncontested layups, as they did on multiple occasions against the Wolverines.

As has not been customary in recent years, Purdue has struggled defensively this season.  They are in the middle of the pack for overall efficiency, but they rank 11th in league play in effective field goal percentage defense.  They are dead last in three-point defense, which the Hoosiers should look to exploit with Jordan Hulls and Matt Roth outside.  The Boilers are eighth in defensive rebounding percentage and ninth in opponents’ free throw rate, so Indiana needs to remain aggressive at driving to the basket and crashing the glass.  Purdue does have a solid turnover rate, which is an area that has plagued the Hoosiers at times this year.

Indiana

Once again, the Hoosiers got off to a slow start on Wednesday night, falling in 13-0 hole against the Wolverines and trying to dig their way out over the remaining 35 minutes.  They got as close as two points but allowed a pair of clutch three-pointers and faltered down the stretch.  Tom Crean called his starting lineup “a joke” after the game, so it will be interesting to see if any changes are made.

One change that may be made for him is related to Verdell Jones, who hurt his shoulder late in the first half against Michigan and sat out the second half.  Jones is expected to be a game-time decision, but if he can’t go, it might free up more playing time for Matt Roth and freshman Remy Abell, who has played well in recent games.

As always, it will be important for Indiana to pound the ball inside to Cody Zeller given Purdue’s lack of quality big men.  Zeller posted his second career double-double against Michigan but certainly didn’t play one of his best games.  He seems to still be struggling with the physicality of Big Ten play but needs to be more aggressive in carving out position for himself and attacking the basket.  Given Purdue’s three-point defense, it would again be wise for the Hoosiers to play from the inside-out.

Jordan Hulls is coming off of a terrific game against Michigan.  He scored 18 points and dished out five assists, but more than that his leadership helped the team claw its way back into the game.  It will be important for him to carry over his hot shooting, as the Indiana native looks for his first win over the Boilers.

The Hoosiers also need a more consistent effort from Christian Watford.  He played poorly in the first half against the Wolverines and started the second half on the bench.  Watford responded to the benching with some inspired basketball on both ends of the floor, but he needs to bring that effort from the opening tip.  Otherwise, he may continue to cede playing time to Derek Elston, who has been a spark off the bench in recent games.

Will Sheehey also needs to respond following a rough night against Michigan that saw him go scoreless with three turnovers and two fouls in just 10 minutes of action.  He played well in his first start against Iowa, but it’s unclear whether he will retain a starting role for the third straight game.  Meanwhile, Victor Oladipo seems to have embraced his role off the bench, scoring 18 points and grabbing 12 boards over the last two games.

Final Thought

To some extent I feel like a broken record here in saying that IU needs to stop dribble penetration and feed the ball to Zeller inside.  They also have to bring a consistent defensive effort throughout the game, something they have struggled to do in recent games.

And while those things will be critical, how Indiana plays at the start of the game will be even more important.

The team has fallen behind early in virtually every game they have lost.  Michigan State jumped out to a nine point lead in the first 6:30, Ohio State was up 11 in roughly the same amount of time, Wisconsin led by five before the first TV timeout, and Michigan was up 13-0 early in Wednesday’s game.  For a team still learning to win on the road, they simply can’t afford to get that “here we go again” feeling.  More than that, a quick early start might help quiet what is sure to be an electric atmosphere at Mackey Arena.

Indiana needs to win this game to get back to .500 in conference play and prove they can win on the road.  Purdue needs this win to protect their home court before a number of tough games down the stretch and to help preserve their spot in the NCAA field.  If the Hoosiers want to come away with what would be their best road win of the season, it will be imperative that they get off to a good start, play solid position defense, and cut back on unforced turnovers.

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Listen to Andy Saturday on The Assembly Call. Follow him on Twitter at @AndyBottoms.

Interestingly enough though, finding teams for this week’s stock watch was tough because so many teams appear to be locked into win-one, lose-one mode.

Bottoms Line: Stock Up

Davidson

After beating Chattanooga on Thursday, the Wildcats improved to 9-0 in the SoCon, and they are starting to at least generate some at-large buzz.  They are 15-4 overall with a win over Kansas in Kansas City, and losses to Duke and Vanderbilt certainly won’t kill them.  Even losing at UMass isn’t terrible, but they also lost at Charlotte who is outside of the RPI Top 100.  In the meantime, Davidson is just inside the Top 50, although future league games won’t help their strength of schedule.

The Wildcats have five players scoring at least 9.1 points per game, led by De’Mon Brooks (14.9 ppg, 6.3 rpg) and Jake Cohen (14.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg), both of whom play less than 25 minutes per contest.

While they are sure to be favored in all of their remaining conference games, they are also slated to play at home as part of the BracketBusters.  Depending on the opponent, it could give them another shot at a profile-enhancing win.

Drexel

After getting off to a painfully slow start where they lost four of their first six games, the Dragons have now won 14 of their last 15 and are within a game of George Mason for the CAA lead.  As was the case last season, Drexel is solid defensively and ranks 26th in adjusted defensive efficiency.  They shut down the three-point line and clean the defensive glass as well as anyone, but they actually rank first in the league in offensive efficiency during conference play.

Bruiser Flint has three players scoring at least 11.8 points per game, including Frantz Massenat (12.2 ppg, 4.1 apg, 3.4 rpg) who hits 47.4 percent from deep and Samme Givens (11.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 53.1 FG%) who is a terrific rebounder at 6-foot-5.

The schedule lays out relatively well for the Dragons, as the season finale against Old Dominion is their only game left against the top teams in the league.

Notre Dame

Even without Tim Abromaitis, the Irish have managed to get off to a 5-3 start in Big East play with road wins at Louisville and Seton Hall and last weekend’s home upset of Syracuse.  Given a few of their losses, Notre Dame is definitely fighting an uphill battle for at-large consideration, but they are working their way into the conversation.

The Irish are essentially using a six-man rotation, and they are getting solid play from Jack Cooley, Eric Atkins, and Jerian Grant.  Cooley has 39 points and 30 rebounds over the last three games, including two double-doubles.  Atkins’ scoring has been inconsistent, but he’s hitting over 40 percent from beyond the arc and has a solid assist rate.  Grant’s assist rate is even better, and he’s averaging 13.3 points over the last 10 games.  All three have strong free throw rates as well, with each hitting at least 71.8 percent from the line.

Notre Dame has three tough games up next with road trips to Connecticut and West Virginia and a home date with Marquette.

Oregon

If you can make heads or tails of the Pac-12, you are definitely smarter than me.  However, I do know that the Ducks have played well of late, winning five of their last six games including victories over Stanford and Arizona.

The mid-December addition of Devoe Joseph has been key, as the Minnesota transfer is leading the team with 14.6 points per game and hitting 43.2 percent from deep.  Oregon is also getting solid play from E.J. Singler, and they seem to have rebounded from the surprising departure of freshman Jabari Brown.

If you look at Oregon’s profile, they don’t have a horrible loss, which this year is a rarity.  The issue is that they don’t have a ton of marquee wins either, and the conference provides more chances for bad losses than signature wins.  That means they need to keep winning at home against Oregon State on Sunday followed by a road trip to Utah and Colorado.

Wisconsin

Despite a 1-3 start in Big Ten play, it’s no surprise the Badgers have bounced back to win five straight, including a pair of road wins against Purdue and Illinois.  While their offense seems improved, they still rank in the middle of the pack for efficiency in conference play.  However, their defense still ranks among the best and can keep them close in virtually every game.  In fact, they have held all but three opponents to 1.00 points per possession or less.

Jordan Taylor has continued to struggle with his shot, and a number of other players have stepped up periodically.  That said, they need one or two other guys to become more consistent contributors from game to game.

Starting with Tuesday’s trip to Penn State, the Badgers play five of their next seven away from home, so it will be interesting to see if they can sustain their level of play during that stretch.

Bottoms Line: Stock Down

Iona

At one point, I considered the Gaels to be an at-large contender, but following losses to Hofstra, Manhattan (albeit on a crazy last-second shot), and Siena, that is no longer the case.  They are currently just outside of the RPI Top 50 but they also have no Top 50 wins with their best victories both coming in overtime against Saint Joseph’s and Denver.

Iona boasts an elite-level point guard in Scott Machado (13.1 ppg, 10.2 apg, 5.1 rpg) and a terrific big man in Michael Glover (19.1 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 67.0 FG%), so talent isn’t an issue.  That said, there was some concern about how well Arizona transfer Momo Jones would fit into the mix.  And while he is averaging 15.3 points, his long-range shooting hasn’t been great, and it’s likely no coincidence that he attempted 20 shots in two of their five losses.  Even so, the offense has strong efficiency numbers, but there is room for improvement on the defensive end.  Outside of limiting opponents to a low free throw rate, the Gaels rank outside of the Top 100 in the other three key factors on KenPom.

A BracketBusters matchups could give them another shot at a strong victory depending on who they play, but more than likely they will need to win the MAAC Tournament to go dancing.

Marshall

After beating Central Florida at home, the Herd stood at 4-0 in Conference USA, but they have since dropped three straight games.  Losses to West Virginia and Southern Miss are forgivable, but the same can’t be said about Wednesday’s home loss to UAB.

Marshall ranks in the top five nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, but their shooting, particularly from three-point range and the foul line, has been really poor.  Guards DeAndre Kane and Damier Pitts are both scoring in double figures, but neither guy makes over 42.9 percent from the field or better than 33.1 percent from deep.

Wins over Cincinnati, Iona, and Belmont definitely help their at-large case, but they need to perform well in remaining games against Memphis (who they play twice), Central Florida, and Southern Miss.  The Herd also needs to avoid losing to any of the lesser teams left on their schedule.

Northwestern

A home win over Michigan State had people thinking maybe this would be the year for the Wildcats.  They have since followed that up with two losses by a combined 43 points, so their status is once again tenuous at best.

Northwestern takes more than 42 percent of their shots from beyond the arc, and since they don’t get to the line much and don’t grab many offensive rebounds, they really can’t survive off shooting nights.  So since they hit just 13-of-40 (32.5%) of their three-pointers in the last two games, it’s not necessarily surprising that they got crushed.  The Wildcats aren’t strong defensively either, so their ability to succeed during times when they struggle offensively is limited.

Northwestern plays three of their next four games at home, so they can ill afford to perform poorly over that stretch before the schedule gets a bit tougher down the stretch.

Purdue

The Boilers have now dropped four of their last six games, and they are slowly sliding toward the bubble.  The team ranks eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency in Big Ten games, which is a departure from the ability they have shown on that end of the floor in recent years.  They have struggled to defend the three-point line but have also allowed opponents to shoot over 50 percent on two-pointers.

Offensively they have an extremely low turnover rate, but their shooting from the field and at the line ranks in the lower half of the league.  The Purdue offense is extremely reliant on Robbie Hummel and a banged up Lewis Jackson, neither of whom has been practicing fully.

The schedule doesn’t do them any favors with their next six contests featuring two games against Northwestern, home dates with Indiana and Michigan State, and road trips to Ohio State and Illinois.

Xavier

After starting out 4-1 in the Atlantic 10, it felt like the Musketeers were finally back on track, but following losses to Dayton and Saint Louis, some of the question marks about the team have resurfaced.  When looking at per possession stats, it’s very easy to tie Xavier’s success to their defensive effort.  In the eight games where they have allowed at least 1.02 points per possession, the Musketeers are 1-7.  In virtually every case, Xavier has allowed a lot of open looks and/or put their opponents on the line a lot.

Offensively, they have played a bit better of late, but they have to get more out of Kenny Frease.  The senior big man has just nine points over the last two games and has some pretty ugly efficiency numbers for the season.  Even if it’s not Frease, someone needs to assert themselves as a consistent contributor outside of Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons.

The Musketeers have three straight road games starting on Saturday, and they have games remaining against Temple, Dayton, and St. Louis as well.  They aren’t quite on the bubble yet, but a few more losses could change that in a hurry.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

1. Draymond Green, Michigan State

Justified or not, these types of awards typically go to the best player on the best team, but that isn’t why I have Green ranked this high despite the fact the Spartans are playing the best basketball of anyone in the league.

Quite simply, Green does everything for this team.

In terms of raw numbers, he leads them in points (15.9 ppg), rebounds (9.8 rpg), and blocks (1.2 bpg) and is second in assists (3.4 apg) and steals (1.5 spg).  He’s the only player in the league to be in that Top 15 in each of those categories and one of just three players to rank that high in four of them.

Green has scored in double figures in 16 of MSU’s 17 games with eight double-doubles, and he’s narrowly missed three others.  He ranks among the nation’s leaders in defensive rebounding percentage and has a tremendous assist rate, particularly when you consider he doesn’t play guard.  Throw in the fact that he also attacks the offensive glass, draws a lot of fouls, and is an above average defender.

Perhaps most importantly, he is the unquestioned leader of the Michigan State team and has helped propel one of last season’s most disappointing teams to a Top 10 ranking, even after losing their first two games.

Image credit: Al Goldis – AP via The Only Colors

2. Jared Sullinger, Ohio State

Sullinger’s absence, either via injury or foul trouble, played a key role in Ohio State’s first two losses this season against Kansas and Indiana.  Brandon Paul can take credit for the third.  But ultimately, that shows what a game-changer Sullinger is and how vital he is to OSU’s success.  The 17.4 points and 9.3 boards per game speak to that too I suppose.

I could rattle off stats for quite a while about just how impressive Sullinger is, but here are just a few.  His 126.9 offensive rating is among the best in the country.  His 31.0 defensive rebounding percentage means he grabs nearly one out of every three of their opponents’ missed shots, which has helped the Buckeyes become the most efficient defensive team.  Sullinger makes better than 60 percent of his field goal attempts, is a monster on the offensive glass, and draws a ton of fouls.  He has eight double-doubles in 16 games, and the only game where he hasn’t scored at least 11 points is the one he left with a foot injury.

Interestingly, Sullinger’s free throw rate has fallen from last season, and he’s attempted just six free throws in the last three games.  That said, with the team struggling from beyond the arc, they would be well served to pound the ball inside to him even more.  Without a doubt, he is the top low-post player in college basketball and the top player on one of the nation’s elite teams.

3. Cody Zeller, Indiana

For a player who came in with extremely high expectations from a fan base starving for success, it’s hard to believe that Zeller has already blown those out of the water.  You can add to that what his signing meant for the program and its future, but let’s focus on his play on the court.

Zeller is in the Top 11 in the Big Ten in points (14.2 ppg), rebounds (6.4 rpg), steals (1.7 spg), and blocks (1.5 bpg).  He’s shooting over 66 percent from the field, and as Luke Winn pointed out, he rarely gets into foul trouble.  His offensive rating is in the nation’s Top 25, and he quite simply has changed the way the Hoosiers play due to his ability to score in the post, draw fouls, rebound, and run the floor.

The scary part is that he’s only going to get better once he adds more bulk and gets used to the physical nature of conference play.  And while you can’t give him all the credit, the reality is that the Hoosiers are the most surprising team in the country.  They returned virtually everyone from a team that went 12-20, and the only addition to play substantial minutes is Zeller.  Take from that what you will.

4. Tim Frazier, Penn State

Frazier will never actually win this award, because his team is barely over .500 at this point.  But I’m not sure they would have won more than a game or two without him.

Like Zeller, he ranks among the Big Ten leaders in points (17.4 ppg), rebounds (5.4 rpg), assists (6.8 apg), and steals (2.2 spg), all of which are tops on the team.  He has played just under 90 percent of the team’s minutes this season, ranks second in the nation in assist rate at 47.8, and draws 7.0 fouls per 40 minutes, which he has parlayed into 125 free throw attempts already.  In short, he is Penn State’s team, and even though their opponents knows that coming in, he continues to produce.

The team’s reliance on him ultimately leads to the two knocks against him, a high number of turnovers and a relatively poor shooting percentage.  Even so, I would argue that no player in the league means more to his team.

5. Trey Burke, Michigan

Coming into the season, my biggest question about the Wolverines was how they could (or if they could) replace Darius Morris at the point.  Burke has provided a resounding answer to that question, and if not for Zeller, he would be a lock for Freshman of the Year.

After logging just 18 minutes in the opener, Burke has played at least 30 minutes in every game since, reaching double figures in 14 of 15 games including the last ten.  He leads the team with 5.0 assists per game, and his 29.8 assist rate ranks just outside the Top 100 nationally and is among the five best in the league.  His turnover rate and decision-making bely his youth, and ultimately his ability to run the offense so effectively has allowed the Wolverines to pick up where they left off last season.

As with Zeller, the fact that Burke is only going to get better is a frightening proposition for Big Ten coaches, and he has the talent to be a contender for this award over the next few years as well.

6. Robbie Hummel, Purdue

It’s hard not to feel good for Hummel after suffering not one, but two, devastating knee injuries.  He’s leading the Boilers in scoring (16.2 ppg), rebounding (6.2 rpg), and blocks (1.2 bpg)  while hitting over 38 percent from three-point range.  Hummel has been remarkably consistent, scoring at least 10 points in all but one game and grabbing at least five boards in 14 of 17 contests.

With JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore gone, Hummel has been counted on as the primary scorer for the first time in his career, as evidenced by the fact he’s taken 109 more shots than anyone else on the team.  Given how much he handles the ball, his paltry 7.2 turnover rate is that much more impressive.

While Hummel isn’t a flashy player by any means, he’s as steady as they come and has given a relatively young Purdue team a rock to build around.  And a year after losing two of the best players in school history, the Boilers are in good position to get a tournament bid, which is a testament to his leadership and overall ability.

7. Christian Watford, Indiana

While Watford played hero in one of the top moments (ok, the top moment) of the season so far with his buzzer-beater to knock off then top-ranked Kentucky, focusing only on that play would be a disservice to Watford’s overall productivity this season.  You could argue that he’s one of the most improved players in the conference as well despite the fact that he led the Hoosiers in scoring last season.

Tom Crean cites a change in Watford’s mindset following Spring Break last season, but the transformation was most evident to me starting with the second half of the N.C. State game.  He scored 11 points and grabbed seven rebounds after halftime to lead the Hoosiers to a key road win.  In the nine games since, he has eight double-digit scoring games, four 20-point performances, and a pair of double-doubles.

The addition of Zeller has allowed Watford to play more on the perimeter where he’s hitting 52.9 percent from beyond the arc, but he continues to draw fouls and get to the line at a relatively high rate.  He and Zeller are still learning how best to play with one another, but Watford is playing like an All-Conference performer of late and deserves some credit for IU’s overall success – as well as its signature moment.

8. Keith Appling, Michigan State

Just one month ago I would have been committed for putting Appling on this list, but his play over the last eight games has been a huge factor in Michigan State’s improvement.  After being used primarily as a defensive stopper as a freshman, he was asked to take on an expanded role at the point this season.  Through two games, he had zero assists, although he did show flashes with a 22-point outburst against Duke.

Over the last eight games though, he has 43 assists compared to just 16 turnovers.  Appling’s scoring has ramped up as well with 17.8 points per game over the last fives contests.  His best game came against Indiana where he 25 points, seven assists, and six rebounds while being incredibly dispruptive on defense and holding Jordan Hulls to just four points on 2-of-10 shooting with four turnovers.  In Sparty’s road win over Wisconsin, he was the MSU offense at certain points in the second half.

There were plenty of questions about Michigan State’s offense after their first few games, and Appling’s improved play at the point has spurred them to become significantly more effective on that end of the floor.  Many of his efficiency numbers are among the best in the league, and considering his age, he’s only going to get better as the season rolls along.

9. John Shurna, Northwestern

Regardless of whether you think the Wildcats will be able to make the tournament for the first time ever (which I don’t), you can’t really leave the conference’s leading scorer off of this list.  Shurna is scoring 18.7 points per game while also grabbing 6.1 boards and blocking 1.7 shots per game.

Despite an unorthodox shooting motion, Shurna is hitting over 42 percent from beyond the arc and shoots over 83 percent from the line, although he could stand to get there more often.  For a team that is limited defensively, the Wildcats are forced to rely heavily on Shurna and Drew Crawford to post big offensive numbers every night.  He’s played at least 35 minutes in all but three games and has scored at least 15 points in all but four contests with six 20-point efforts and two 30-plus point outbursts.

If Northwestern somehow finds a way to go dancing in March, you can be certain that Shurna will be the main reason why, which gives him the opportunity to climb this list as the season moves forward.

10. Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin

I know Taylor and the Badgers have struggled this season, and my first pass at this list didn’t even have him on it.  Sure, his numbers are down from last season, but I would argue that has more to do with how much Wisconsin misses guys like Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankivil.

In the end, Taylor’s value to the team is probably second only to Tim Frazier’s, because while some of his teammates have played at times, none of them have been a reliable Robin to Taylor’s Batman.  Even so, his assist rate is just slightly lower than last season, and his turnover rate has remained outstanding for someone with the ball in his hands so much.  His two-point shooting is virtually even with last year, but his three-point shooting has dropped with fewer wide open looks than he saw as a junior.

In many ways, the Badgers are playing as poorly as I can recall in recent years, but I’m not convinced that is an indictment of Jordan Taylor.  What I do know is that they wouldn’t have even been competitive against teams like North Carolina or Michigan State without him.

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It’s worth noting that I am writing this the day after Illinois’ Brandon Paul went off for 43 points against Ohio State, so you may be surprised to not see his name on this list.  It was a phenomenal performance – one of the best so far this season – but his play earlier in the season doesn’t exactly warrant his inclusion.  He was scoring but had posted some pretty ugly efficiency numbers in the process with just a 91.7 offensive rating heading into that game.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

I’ll be releasing my own projections starting next week, but for now I thought it would be worthwhile to look at how Big Ten teams are shaping up with as many as nine of them in some of these mock brackets.

For the purposes of this exercise, I have narrowed down the projections to Andy Glockner of SI.com, Shawn Siegel of College Hoops Net, and Dave Ommen of Bracketville.  The latter two names both rank atop the bracket project matrix which has tracked success over the last few years, and Glockner is a great follow on Twitter and does a tremendous job of sharing his thought process as he brackets the teams each Sunday night.

One other thing to keep in mind is that while the committee uses RPI in the selection and seeding process, it can be a bit misleading at this point of the season.  You’ll currently find a number of teams from outside of the six major conferences with high RPI’s, fueled largely by their strength of schedule numbers.  Once they start playing teams in their own leagues, and once major conference teams start challenging themselves in conference play as well, things should start to shift.

In order of average seed, here are the nine Big Ten teams in the discussion:

Ohio State (Glockner/Ommen: 1, Siegel: 2)

Kentucky and Syracuse were unanimous top seeds, while Ohio State and North Carolina showed up on two of the three projections.

Siegel opted for Baylor over the Buckeyes, which is an argument you can certainly make.  The Bears have more wins against the RPI Top 100 and have a number of good wins against teams like Mississippi State, San Diego State, Saint Mary’s, and at BYU.  However, the Buckeyes have knocked off Duke and Florida, so their “best” wins are better.

Still, they have two losses, although neither can be considered “bad” since one game at Kansas without Jared Sullinger and the other came in a close game on the road against Indiana, who is 13th in the RPI.

Barring a collapse, it’s hard seeing the Buckeyes getting anything lower than a two seed come March.

Indiana (Glockner/Siegel/Ommen: 3)

With wins over Kentucky and Ohio State, you could argue that no team has two better wins than the Hoosiers.  If you want to nitpick though, seven of their 13 wins have come against teams outside of the RPI Top 200, so strength of schedule is one factor keeping them from getting a higher seed.

Their SoS should climb as they move through Big Ten play, and with UConn losing to Seton Hall, the opportunity to move up is certainly there.  Indiana’s lone loss came at Michigan State, so there’s no shame in that.

Michigan State (Glockner/Siegel/Ommen: 3)

These projections came out prior to Sparty’s road win over Wisconsin, so Tom Izzo’s squad has a good chance to improve their seed when the next set of projections come out.  Both of their losses came against teams in the RPI Top 15, one of which was on a aircraft carrier so who knows how much stock you can put in that.

MSU has now won 14 straight games and is playing as well as anyone in the nation’s top conference.  The only knock on them is that just two of their wins (Indiana, at Gonzaga) are against the RPI Top 50.  If they keep playing the way they are, a two-seed is definitely realistic.

Wisconsin (Glockner/Siegel: 5, Ommen: 6)

The Badgers are an interesting case.  They rank 60th in the RPI and are just 1-3 against the Top 50 and 5-4 against the Top 150.  Outside of an 11-point home win over UNLV, there really isn’t much else on their profile in terms of a marquee win.  Their next two games are on the road against Michigan and Purdue, so a split there would help stop their seeding freefall.

Michigan (Siegel: 4, Glockner/Ommen: 6)

The Wolverines are one of the teams I can’t quite figure out yet.  Their two best wins are against Memphis in Maui and at home against Minnesota, and at this point neither of those teams is safely in the field.  They currently sit at 31st in the RPI with seven of their 12 victories against teams outside of the Top 150.

Thursday’s game at Indiana is a chance to prove themselves, as is Sunday’s home date with Wisconsin.  At this point, I lean more toward Glockner and Ommen’s seed for Michigan.

Purdue (Siegel/Ommen: 7, Glockner: 10)

Purdue’s road win at Iowa looked better after the Hawkeyes knocked off Wisconsin, and I think their win over Miami (FL) will look better by the end of the year.  For now, the loss to Butler hurts, but that may change as well.

The Boilers also have wins over Iona, Temple, and Illinois, all of which are in the Top 32 of the RPI.  That said, they are 4-3 against the Top 100 with six of their 12 wins over sub-150 teams.  For seeding purposes, their losses to Alabama and Xavier may become important, because right now those teams are right around the same seed range.

Illinois (Siegel/Ommen: 8, Glockner: 9)

Since winning their first 10 games, the Illini have dropped three of five with their two wins over that span coming by four over Cornell and in double overtime against Minnesota.  A home win against Gonzaga is nice, but otherwise there isn’t much meat on their resume.  They are 3-3 against the RPI Top 100, but they also don’t really have a bad loss.  T

he schedule doesn’t do them any favors with just one game against Iowa and Penn State in Big Ten play.  A few more losses could send Illinois careening toward the bubble.

Minnesota (Glockner: 11, Siegel/Ommen: 12)

The Gophers have performed better than most people expected following the loss of Trevor Mbakwe, but they are off to a 0-2 start in Big Ten play.  They are just 1-3 against the RPI Top 50, but they are 5-0 against teams ranked 51-100 (Bucknell, Fairfield, Indiana State, North Dakota State, and South Dakota State).

I’m not sure how realistic it is for many of those teams to remain in that range, which means the Gophers need to start picking up some quality wins to remain in the field.

Northwestern (Siegel/Ommen: 13, Glockner: First Four Out)

The good news is that the wins against LSU and Seton Hall look better now than they did earlier this year.  The bad news is they have been crushed by a combined 61 points in games against Baylor and Ohio State.  Eight of their 11 wins have come against teams outside of the RPI Top 150, which leaves them just 3-3 against everybody else.

Their next six games are critical with home games against Illinois, Michigan State, and Purdue and road trips to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

For instance, this week I learned Marquette coach Buzz Williams’ fashion sense is questionable at best.

I also learned that sometimes big games can actually live up to the hype (yeah, I’m talking to you Alabama and LSU).

And I learned that whenever there’s a game I’m really excited to watch, somehow Jimmy Dykes always ends up on the call trying to ruin it for me.

I also learned about some teams and conferences, which I’ll share in this week’s stock watch.

Stock Up

Baylor

In terms of raw talent and athleticism, very few teams can match the Bears.  The question marks coming into this season were point guard play and Scott Drew’s coaching.  So far, I think we have an answer to one of those.

Juco transfer Pierre Jackson has played pretty well at the point, and his 39.2 assist rate ranks in the Top 20 nationally.  Even the much-maligned A.J. Walton has a solid assist rate, but his turnover rate is an absurd 40.2.  That said, Jackson’s turnover rate is still fairly high as well, and that’s the one area where the Bears struggle offensively.  Their outside shooting has been solid, and they’ve done a nice job attacking the offensive glass and getting to the line.

On defense, the Bears’ dynamic front line is blocking a lot of shots, which they have parlayed into the country’s top two-point defense.  Freshman Quincy Miller has been terrific early on, averaging 13.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.0 assists while shooting over 46 percent from beyond the arc.  Perry Jones sat out the first five games due to a suspension, but his return adds yet another talented frontcourt option for the Bears.

Baylor’s two biggest wins are over San Diego State and Northwestern, but they have additional non-conference tests remaining against BYU, Saint Mary’s, West Virginia, and Mississippi State.   Those should help answer the questions around Drew’s coaching, but if ever there was a time for Baylor to win the Big 12, it’s now.

Georgetown

The Hoyas have been one of the season’s biggest early surprises.  They gained confidence in Maui by giving Kansas all they could handle in the opener and later knocked off Memphis in overtime, but last week’s win at Alabama was their best performance of the season.  Hollis Thompson, who hit the game winner to beat Bama, has had the breakout season many expected with 15.0 points and 5.5 rebounds per game while hitting 20-of-34 (58.8%) from deep.

Senior Jason Clark has provided stability in the backcourt with terrific shooting and leadership, but the real surprise has been big man Henry Sims.  After scoring just 3.6 points per game last season,  Sims has come out of nowhere to put up 12.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.5 blocks.

With many middle of the pack Big East teams struggling, the Hoyas are positioning themselves for a finish in the upper half of the league and should be 9-1 heading into late-December games against Memphis and Louisville.

Marquette

Since I’ve both written and podcasted about my love for the Golden Eagles this week, I’ll try to keep this brief.  They picked up a huge road win at Wisconsin last weekend and followed that up with a last-second win over Washington at Madison Square Garden.

The duo of Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder is as tough as they come, and the overall depth is the best of the Buzz Williams era.  That depth will be tested after big man Chris Otule injured his knee against the Huskies, but the team has received contributions from virtually everyone on the roster already this season.

While the calling card for this team will continue to be aggressiveness and toughness on both ends of the floor, there is plenty of talent as well.  Marquette looks like a Top Three team in the Big East and should be 12-0 when they take on Vanderbilt later this month.

Murray State

The Racers are the least-heralded of the remaining undefeated teams, and their biggest test awaits when they travel to Memphis on Sunday.  In their last game, Murray State beat Dayton by 17 points, a win that looks even better after the Flyers just knocked off Alabama.

Guard Isaiah Canaan is leading the offensive attack with 20.3 points per game and is hitting over 50.8 percent from three-point range.  Donte Poole and Ivan Aska are also scoring at least 12 points per game, and as a team, the Racers are shooting 43.1 percent from beyond the arc.

Defensively, they’ve done a nice job of forcing turnovers, but their other numbers aren’t particularly impressive.  Still, they are clearly the class of the Ohio Valley, and we’ll get a much better idea of how good this team really is once we see how they play against the Tigers this weekend.

Wichita State

After a disappointing 1-2 trip to Puerto Rico, the Shockers have rebounded nicely with a 19-point home win over UNLV and a 10-point road victory against Tulsa.

Wichita State has six players scoring at least nine points per game, led by Toure’ Murry and Joe Ragland with 13.8 and 11.8 points, respectively.  Ragland went off against the Rebels, hitting 8-of-9 from three-point range, and juco All-American Carl Hall has stepped his game up with 47 points in the last three contests.

Throw in 7-footer Garrett Stutz and you have a solid nucleus for the Shockers, who have the potential to challenge Creighton for the Missouri Valley crown.  They should be 10-2 when they face off with the Bluejays on New Year’s Eve.

Stock Down

Alabama

The home loss to Georgetown is excusable, but the Tide trailing virtually the entire game against a Dayton team that had just been blown out by Buffalo is more than a little disconcerting.

Outside of the talented trio of JaMychal Green, Tony Mitchell, and Trevor Releford, Alabama’s offense has been inconsistent at best.  Much of that has to do with a reliance on a quartet of freshmen who are going to experience the typical ups and downs, but if Alabama wants to go anywhere in March, they have to find a reliable outside shooter to bolster their dreadful 26.7 percent shooting from three-point range.

Anthony Grant’s teams have typically been known for their defense, but outside of a solid field goal percentage defense, their advanced metrics aren’t particularly impressive.  Next up for Alabama is a date with a Detroit squad who recently got big man Eli Holman back, followed by games against Kansas State and Oklahoma State.

Florida

I had questions about Florida’s guard-heavy attack coming into this season, and while there’s no shame in losing road games to Ohio State and Syracuse, the Gators haven’t done much to calm those fears.  Against Arizona, big man Patric Young was dominant inside, yet somehow guards Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton continued to jack up shots and finished 5-of-27 from the field and 2-of-15 from three-point range.

SI’s Andy Glockner also wrote an article this week detailing how unlikely it is that the Gators would be able to continue their early season shooting from outside, and Wednesday’s game against the Wildcats may well have signaled the start of that normalization.  With such a reliance on the three-point shot, Florida is rarely getting to the free throw line, and there are some reasons for concern on defense as well.

All that being said, the Gators are still a talented team who should finish toward the top of the SEC, but a shift in offensive philosophy and better shot selection could make this team even more dangerous as conference play approaches.

Gonzaga

The Zags failed their first road test of the season, losing by seven at Illinois last Saturday.  Point guard play was the team’s biggest question mark heading into the season, and Gonzaga posted 16 turnovers compared to just 10 assists against the Illini.

Perhaps even more surprising was the fact that they allowed Illinois big man Meyers Leonard to go off for 21 points while Robert Sacre was limited to just two rebounds before fouling out.  That simply can’t happen for a team so reliant on its experienced frontcourt.

Offensively, the Bulldogs have done a great job of getting to the free throw line, and freshman sniper Kevin Pangos has bolstered the team’s three-point shooting.  However, they have allowed their opponents to hit over 38 percent from beyond the arc and have struggled to clean the defensive glass.  With December games remaining against Michigan State, Arizona, and Xavier, the schedule doesn’t get any easier for the Zags.

Pac-12

At some point it feels like piling on, but this conference is an absolute train wreck.  You can hardly go one day without someone getting suspended or transferring, and things on the floor aren’t much better.  To name just a few, Cal got destroyed by Missouri, Washington fell to struggling Nevada, Washington State lost to UC Riverside, Arizona state has been beaten by Pepperdine and DePaul, USC lost to Cal Poly, and Utah has yet to beat a Division One opponent and just got dumptrucked by Cal State Fullerton.

As a league, they have just seven wins against teams in the Top 100 of the Pomeroy Ratings, with the “best” win being Oregon State’s victory over a Texas team that might not even make the tournament.  Other than that though, things are looking good out west.

Purdue

I was worried when the Boilers struggled with High Point earlier this season, but they bounced back to beat Iona and Temple in Puerto Rico to ease those fears.  Then they forced 18 first half turnovers against Xavier and built a 19-point second half lead, but Tu Holloway led the Musketeers to an improbable come from behind victory.  On Wednesday, the Boilers struggled against Western Carolina before eventually winning by five, which has me worried once again.

On offense, Purdue is doing a terrific job of taking care of the basketball with an extremely low turnover rate.  Outside of that, they have been heavily reliant on three-pointers thanks to the shooting of Robbie Hummel and Ryne Smith.  Lewis Jackson has been solid at the point, but the team has yet to find an inside presence that even comes close to replacing JaJuan Johnson.

Uncharacteristically, Purdue’s biggest struggles have been on the defensive end.  They are allowing opponents to shoot 35 percent from beyond the arc, and their lack of proven frontcourt options has a lot to do with their propensity to allow offensive rebounds.  Purdue is also putting their opponents on the free throw line more often.  Even so, their final three non-conference games are winnable, so we’ll have to wait until Big Ten play to get a better feel for just how good the Boilers are.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

For the first time, both leagues have the same number of teams, so there are 12 games on this year’s slate.  (In the event of a 6-6 tie, the Big Ten will retain the Commissioner’s Cup in case you were wondering.  Spoiler alert: That shouldn’t be an issue.)

Here’s a look at the schedule for the two-day event.  I also wrote a preview for Run The Floor, which focuses more on advanced metrics and is a bit snarkier since the Managing Editor there is an ACC guy.

ACC/Big Ten Challenge Games on Tuesday, Nov 29th

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#15 Michigan at Virginia – 7:00 EST (ESPN2)

Expect this one to be played at a painfully slow pace, but the tip time is early enough that it shouldn’t put you to sleep. Virginia is among the most efficient teams on the defense end, while Michigan is just outside the Top 25 in offensive efficiency, so something has to give.

The Wolverines have played better competition thanks to their time in Maui, while the Cavaliers recently returned from the Paradise Jam where they rebounded to win two games after a disappointing loss to TCU in the tournament opener.  UVA big man Mike Scott could give Michigan some trouble inside, but both teams are largely perimeter-oriented in terms of their personnel.

Tim Hardaway Jr. will be the best player on the floor, but I also like the contributions Michigan is getting from veterans Zach Novak and Stu Douglass as well as freshman point guard Trey Burke.  Still, the Wolverines have struggled to defend the three-point shot, and Virginia excelled from long range last season.

The other red flag has been Michigan’s propensity to put their opponents on the free throw line, and their 13th-ranked free throw rate suggests the Cavaliers will be able to take advantage of that deficiency.  I expect a close game, with Virginia having the slight edge based on concerns about Michigan’s defense.

• Prediction: Virginia

Northwestern at Georgia Tech – 7:15 EST (ESPNU)

Both of these teams participated in the Charleston Classic with Northwestern winning the tournament and the Jackets finishing 1-2.  It’s worth noting they played one of those games without leading scorer Glen Rice Jr., who was wrapping up a three-game suspension.  At 17.7 points per game, Rice leads five Georgia Tech players averaging over 8.0 points, but they aren’t getting much outside of those five guys.

Defense has been the Yellow Jackets’ calling card so far, but they will be tested by the duo of John Shurna and Drew Crawford, who have combined to score better than 40 points per game so far.  Keep an eye on how freshman point guard Dave Sobolewski handles Georgia Tech’s defense, as that will go a long way toward deciding the outcome.

The other area to monitor is Northwestern’s ability to limit second shots.  The Jackets have posted a strong offensive rebounding percentage and could give the Wildcats trouble on the glass.

• Prediction: Northwestern

Illinois at Maryland – 7:30 EST (ESPN)

For a number of reasons, the Terps are forced to play mostly young and/or inexperienced players, which has them off to a 3-2 start.  They lost two of their three games in Puerto Rico, to Alabama by 20 and to Iona by 26.

Maryland Sophomore Terrell Stoglin is emerging as a star with 20.2 points per game.  His shooting percentages have dropped across the board, but he’s the clear focal point of the offense with nearly twice as many field goal attempts as any of his teammates.  Maryland’s efficiency numbers have been absolutely brutal on both ends of the floor, leaving little reason for optimism there.

The Illini are also young, so neither team has a clear advantage in that regard.  Junior guard D.J. Richardson is off to a good start with 13.5 points per game to go with 40.5 percent shooting from beyond the arc.  Inside, soph big man Meyers Leonard is posting 12.3 points, 6.8 boards, and an impressive 3.2 blocks per game.  In a game with two relatively inexperienced teams, Illinois’ defense and inside play should be the difference.

• Prediction: Illinois

Miami (FL) at Purdue – 9:00 EST (ESPN2)

Had injuries not ravaged the Miami frontcourt, this would be a tougher matchup for Purdue given the composition of their team.

As it stands, the Canes are 4-1 while relying heavily on their talented backcourt of Malcolm Grant and Durand Scott, who combine to average 30.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 5.2 assists.  Miami is shooting just 40 percent from the field, which is not a good sign against a Purdue defense ranked in the Top 15 for defensive efficiency.

The Boilers picked up solid wins over Iona and Temple in Puerto Rico before falling to Alabama in the championship, but the best news is that Robbie Hummel looks healthy after missing last season with a knee injury.  He is pacing the team with 19.3 points per game while hitting 46.7 percent from deep.  Sharpshooter Ryne Smith has been red hot for most of the season, and Lewis Jackson has been terrific at the point.

Look for Kelsey Barlow to lock down either Grant or Scott and for the Boilers to emerge victorious.

• Prediction: Purdue

Clemson at Iowa – 9:15 EST (ESPNU)

I won’t blame you if you don’t go out of your way to watch this one.  Clemson has losses to College of Charleston and Coastal Carolina, while Iowa just lost at home by 15 to Campbell.

The Tigers have four players averaging at least 9.8 points, led by guard Andre Young with 14.4 points per contest.  Clemson has been solid defensively, but they haven’t been impressive on offense, particularly in terms of getting to the free throw line.  Of course, they’re only making 64.5 percent once they get there, so maybe it’s by design.

Meanwhile, Iowa has eight players scoring at least 7.2 points per game, and as a team they are hitting over 39 percent from deep.  Like Clemson, they have struggled to get to the stripe, but they have really struggled defensively, and their opponents have routinely shot a high percentage from the field.

• Prediction: Clemson

#4 Duke at #2 Ohio State – 9:30 EST (ESPN)

This is easily the marquee matchup of the event’s first day.

The Blue Devils should have plenty of confidence coming off of their win in Maui.  Duke is hitting a ridiculous 45.9 percent from beyond the arc so far, led by Seth Curry at 57.1 percent and Andre Dawkins at 44.7.  They are two of the five Blue Devils scoring in double figures, but there hasn’t been a ton of production from others with the notable exception of Tyler Thornton’s two huge three-pointers to seal the win over Kansas.  Duke has been adept at getting to the free throw line, and they have been better than I expected on defense.

As for the Buckeyes, they have been outstanding on both ends of the floor, as evidenced by Pomeroy Ratings in the Top Five for both offensive and defensive efficiency. Jared Sullinger has picked up right where he left off with 18.8 points and 10.7 rebounds along with 63.3 percent shooting from the field.

Like most teams in college basketball, Duke will have a hard time containing him on the inside.  William Buford complements Sullinger outside where he’s averaging 17.7 points and hitting 50 percent from deep.  Throw in point guard Aaron Craft, who is one of my favorites guys to watch, and you have a really intriguing backcourt matchup between these two squads.

Ohio State has struggled with its long-range shooting, but its defense should be enough to disrupt Duke on offense.

• Prediction: Ohio State

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ACC/Big Ten Challenge Games on Wednesday, Nov 30th

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Indiana at North Carolina State – 7:15 EST (ESPN2)

While many predicted a rebuilding year for Mark Gottfried and the Wolfpack, they have played fairly well so far and came back from a healthy second half deficit to knock off Texas on a neutral floor.  After serving a three-game suspension to start the season, C.J. Leslie has been impressive with 16.7 points, 5.7 boards, 2.3 steals, and 2.3 blocks while hitting 63.0 percent from the field.  He leads six players scoring in double figures, including point guard Lorenzo Brown who is dishing out 6.5 assists per game as well.  While N.C. State has done a nice job taking care of the ball, they have struggled to hit and defend shots from beyond the arc.

The Hoosiers are off to their best start in years, thanks in large part to their hot shooting both inside and outside the arc.  Seven players are averaging at least 7.0 points, led by freshman phenom Cody Zeller with 14.8 points and 7.7 rebounds per contest. The biggest difference for IU has come on the defensive end where they have seen a sharp increase in their turnover rate.  They have also done a much better of job of not putting opponents on the line while getting there with much more regularity on offense.

This will be another solid road test for the Hoosiers but one they seem poised to pass based on their defense and outside shooting.

• Prediction: Indiana

Penn State at Boston College – 7:15 EST (ESPNU)

Unless you attended one of these schools or both of the other games are at commercial breaks, you probably aren’t tuning in for this one.

Both teams lost virtually everyone from last season’s rosters and are in full blown rebuilding mode this year.  Both teams have also been woefully inefficient offensively, with Boston College being the worse of the two on the defensive end.

With 19.1 points per game, Penn State guard Tim Frazier is the only Nittany Lion scoring in double figures, and he’s also pacing the team with 7.1 assists.  Freshman Patrick Heckmann leads BC with 13.8 points per game, but tons of questions remain on the roster, particularly once you get past their top four scorers.

Penn State’s offensive rebounding could be the difference in this one, but in the end, I simply can’t write any more about this game.

• Prediction: Penn State

Florida State at Michigan State – 7:30 EST (ESPN)

Like the previous matchup, these two teams are pretty similar.  The difference is that they both aren’t terrible, at least not on both ends of the floor.  These squads are built around defense and rebounding, while both struggle to put points on the board.

Seven Noles are scoring at least 7.0 points per game, but the team is shooting just 31.7 percent from beyond the arc.  The Spartans are actually worse, hitting just 23.8 percent of their triples.  They have also been unable to find a true point guard, which has led to an ugly turnover rate.  Draymond Green is averaging a double-double with 12.7 points and 11.2 rebounds, but his shooting has been poor and he’s trying to do too much on offense.

Aside from the battle on the glass, keep an eye on Florida State’s ability to get to the free throw line.  The Noles have a decent free throw rate, while Michigan State is putting opponents on the line with regularity.  Ultimately it’s hard to see Sparty solving their shooting woes against a team ranked 10th in effective field goal percentage defense.

I’m pretty sure it’s ok to plagiarize yourself, so as I said in my Run The Floor piece: In short, these two teams are mirror images of one another, which is ironic since watching either one play offense will make you want to break a mirror and start cutting yourself with the shattered pieces.  This one is a toss-up, so give me the home team!

• Prediction: Michigan State

Virginia Tech at Minnesota – 9:15 EST (ESPN2)

The Hokies gave Syracuse a scare in the NIT semi-finals before squeaking out a two-point win over Oklahoma State in the consolation game.  Their strength lies in the backcourt with Erick Green and Dorenzo Hudson leading the way with over 29 points per game between them.  Freshman wing Dorian Finney-Smith has impressed early in his career and is averaging 10.3 rebounds through six games.  On offense, the Hokies have struggled with turnovers but have done a nice job of getting to the stripe.

For Minnesota, the recent loss of forward Trevor Mbakwe is devastating in every possible way, as everything they did well on offense resulted from his relentlessness inside.  The Gophers are still searching for answers in the backcourt, but juco transfer Julian Welch played well in the Old Spice Classic.

Since the Hokies have struggled to force turnovers, it seems unlikely they will be able to take advantage of Minnesota’s biggest weakness, and without Mbakwe the Gophers will struggle to exploit Va Tech’s weakness on the offensive glass.  Instead, they will end up shooting more from the perimeter, where the Hokies are at their best on defense.

• Prediction: Virginia Tech

Wake Forest at Nebraska – 9:15 EST (ESPNU)

On the surface, this would appear to be another matchup of two teams picked to finish in the bottom of each league.

OK, that’s actually what it is, but I do think Nebraska could surprise a few teams in the Big Ten.  They have a pair of talented guards in Bo Spencer and Dylan Talley, who are averaging a combined 28.4 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 7.2 assists, to go with Jorge Brian Diaz inside.  Outside of solid shooting, their offensive efficiency numbers aren’t impressive, as they struggle to get to the line or grab offensive boards.  The Huskers also don’t force many turnovers, but otherwise they’ve been solid defensively.

The Demon Deacons are coming off of a 8-24 season and just went 1-2 in the Old Spice Classic.  C.J. Harris and Travis McKie each score better than 19 points per game and pace the offense.  Outside of the 6-foot-7 McKie, Wake isn’t getting much from its frontcourt.  They are doing a woeful job on the offensive glass and an equally poor job on the defensive boards, while their opponents are routinely shooting a high percentage from the field.

Look for the Huskers to take advantage of Wake’s poor defense to pick up the victory.

• Prediction: Nebraska

#7 Wisconsin at #5 North Carolina – 9:30 (ESPN)

This will be an interesting contrast in styles to close things out. The Badgers play at one of the slower paces in all of college hoops, while North Carolina wants to get up and down the floor.

Wisconsin is the top team in terms of limiting opponents’ effective field goal percentage and offensive rebounding, while the Heels have struggled to defend the three-point shot over their last few games.  The Badgers have Jordan Taylor (11.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 5.8 apg) and a bunch of guys no one has heard of, while UNC’s roster is full of McDonald’s All-Americans and lottery picks, led by Harrison Barnes (17.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg), John Henson (15.8 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 3.0 bpg), and Tyler Zeller (13.5 ppg, 7.2 rpg).

After being outplayed by UNLV on Saturday night, I will be interested to see how North Carolina responds.  They forced shots and got dominated on the glass by the Rebels, and they were unable to prevent penetration on defense, which led to a number of kick-outs for three-pointers.  That could be bad news against a Wisconsin team hitting better than 47 percent from downtown.

The Badgers were tested by BYU on Saturday before going on a second half run to win by 17 points, but going into the Dean Dome and winning is a pretty tall order.  Their defense will keep it close, but they will need big shooting days from Ben Brust and Josh Gasser to spring the upset. Given UNC’s defense so far, that isn’t as far-fetched as it might seem.

• Prediction: North Carolina

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

Notre Dames’ 15-12 win against Pittsburgh last Sunday was anything but pretty, but it was a must-win game on the road if the Irish have any hope of playing in a major bowl game.

Purdue is coming off a whopping 59-0 victory over Southeast Missouri State, but the Boilermakers will be facing a much bigger test this Saturday.

Purdue-Notre Dame: The Offenses

Notre Dame: 48th ranked in the NCAA with 423.5 average yards per game. 

Notre Dame’s offense is considered to be its strongest asset. Though it has its moments when all cylinders are clicking, turnovers remain a constant cloud hanging over quarterback Tommy Rees.

Rees turned the ball over twice last week against Pitt. He has a lot of potential but his inexperience from only being a sophomore is costing the Irish. Luckily, he has one of the best wide receivers to throw to in Michael Floyd. And with a decent one-two punch in the running back position, Rees doesn’t have to take total control of the game.

Rees’s inexperience is what is slowing down this Irish offense, but a few road wins could be the jump start in confidence the Irish need. And he’ll need to avoid the turnovers to avoid seeing this:

Purdue: 20th ranked in the NCAA with 471 average yards per game.

The Boilermakers are faring pretty well in the offense category early on in the season, though it’s mainly due to an easy schedule. Tough times are up ahead though with Notre Dame this week, then Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State all scheduled in the future.

This is the Purdue offense’s first true test this season. Purdue is going to need their best performance from QB and third-year man Caleb TerBush. TerBush has only thrown one interception this season, though his pass attempts are significantly lower compared to Rees.

Contrary to the rankings, Purdue’s offense isn’t as explosive as Notre Dame, but rivalries usually bring out the best in the teams, so Purdue’s offense performing well against an average Notre Dame defense is not impossible.

Purdue-Notre Dame: The Defenses

Notre Dame: 39th ranked in the NCAA allowing an average of 339 yards per game.

One thing the Notre Dame defense does well is force turnovers. They are tied for first in the nation in the turnover category with Tulsa with 15. The majority (10) of those turnovers are fumbles.

It’s no surprise then that the Irish are ranked 26th in the nation in rushing yards allowed (93) per game. The passing defense isn’t even in the top 50 though, confirming what the turnover stat says: if you’re going to attack the Irish, it’s going to have be through the air.

Purdue: 35th ranked in the nation allowing an average of 321 yards per game.

Purdue also performs better against the run compared to the pass, allowing an average of 109 yards per game. Purdue is going to have to find a way to stop Michael Floyd or it’s going to be a long day for the passing defense.

Disrupting Notre Dame’s passing game isn’t too hard though. Rees’ inexperience and tendency to rely on Floyd too often opens up a gate for the Boilermakers to exploit, and they’re going to need to exploit that in order to have a chance to win.

Purdue-Notre Dame Prediction

Even though it’s on the road in front of a very tough crowd that will definitely pump up the home team, Notre Dame is going to come out this week with a victory. I think the Irish will come out of the nervous shell they’ve started this season in this week in West Lafayette,

Irish 27-Purdue 17

Purdue-Notre Game Info

• Purdue-Notre Dame Date: Saturday, October 1st
• Purdue-Notre Dame Kickoff Time: 8:00 ET
• Purdue-Notre Dame TV: ESPN
• Purdue Notre Dame Point Spread: Notre Dame -11.5

Rumors have steadily intensified over the last few days that Painter was the #1 choice of Missouri to replace the departed Mike Anderson as its head basketball coach. I laughed off the rumors at first, considering them absurd. Painter grew up in Indiana, played at Purdue, coached there under Gene Keady, and has rebuilt Purdue from rubble into one of the top teams in the Big Team. Why the heck would he leave?

Well I’m not laughing off the rumors anymore, and neither should Purdue fans. In fact, it’s time to get very, very worried if you don the old gold and black.

From Vahe Gregorian at STLToday.com:

Purdue coach Matt Painter will meet with Mizzou soon to gauge the school’s commitment to the basketball program, sources told the Post-Dispatch today.

A resolution to the Painter situation will likely be Wednesday. One source said it was better than a 50 percent chance that Painter would accept an offer.

Purdue fans, all together now: *GULP*.

Before I go any further, let me state my personal, relatively uninformed opinion right off the bat: I will still be shocked if Painter leaves.

If he does go to Missouri, it will be strictly about the money – at least that’s how it seems – and I can’t imagine Purdue not ponying up as much or more money as Mizzou has to keep him. Purdue is notoriously frugal when it comes to paying coaches and funding athletics so I still think that this is a case of Painter seizing an opportunity to leverage Purdue into a deservedly bigger paycheck.

For the record, Painter is the 8th highest paid coach in the conference ($1.325 million), higher than only Fran McCaffery, Bill Carmody, and Ed Dechellis. Anyone with even a peripheral knowledge of Big Ten basketball knows that Painter outproduces that salary, relatively speaking, on an annual basis.

But Travis over at Hammer and Rails brought up some great points in a post published this morning entitled “Does Purdue have a Loser’s Mentality?” You might dismiss such a title as partisan, agenda-driven drivel if it were on an IU site, but this is one of the most passionate Purdue fans I know providing an astoundingly honest depiction of his own athletic department’s shortcomings. I encourage you to read the full article, but here is the most telling passage:

This is only speculation, but maybe Painter sees the mentality of the athletic department better than any of us. He is, after all, a competitor. He is a former player that came close to playing on a Final Four team. He wants to succeed at the highest levels, but he knows Purdue’s history better than most. If he feels that he can have more success elsewhere, he may bolt.

I never would have really thought this was the case – heck, I’m the Indiana fan who respects Purdue enough to have written this laudatory post – but Travis makes a pretty compelling case that Purdue’s athletic department needs an attitude adjustment if it wants to compete for championships. We can certainly assume that a guy like Painter wants to compete for championships, so perhaps there could be more than just money at play here. Again, it’s all just partially educated speculation at this point.

Rather than spend more time speculating myself, I’ll leave it to the informed professionals, namely the guys at the Purdue-affiliated Gold & Black Illustrated. As the guys at The Boiling Points noted, “If there is an informed voice in this whole thing on Purdue’s side, it’s [GBI].”

And here is what Brian Neubert of GBI had to say about the Painter-to-Missouri rumors earlier today:

What we’ve found is only more and more suggestions that Mizzou could be on the fast track to making a hire in the short term. A pair of different sources have said Tuesday could be the day. As far as we can tell, Painter is not only the leading candidate; he’s the only candidate. Do the math.

…

Purdue is Painter’s alma mater, but at no point in time in his career coaching in West Lafayette has he said or done anything to suggest he’s a lifer here for that simple reason.

Speculation might have it that this is all merely a shakedown – I know that term has sinister connotations, but I can’t think of a better one – of Purdue. But if that’s the case, it’s been an unbelievably elaborate and well-choreographed one.

Head over to read the entire article from The Boiling Points if you want to see who Neubert speculated might replace Painter if he does in fact leave.

Where does this leave Purdue fans and keenly interested rival observers like myself? In a big, muddy mess of rumor, innuendo, guesswork, and vague reports…so, pretty much where we are left with every story like this that we try to pick apart and discuss without many hard parts.

All we know is that Matt Painter is meeting with Missouri today, and there are legitimate signs that point to him taking the job being a reasonable possibility. We also know that Purdue’s purported #1 candidate to replace Painter, Cuonzo Martin, is now the head coach at Tennessee.

Add it all up and it means two things: 1) Purdue fans, if they weren’t already, need to take this very seriously and get in the ear of their athletic department to open up the coffers; and 2) Rock bottom for the 2010-11 season might not have come, as we all thought, at the hands of VCU in the Round of 32.

Stay tuned…

There are a number of answers that would be partially right, but none would be more right than this: I started MSF so that when I feel passionately about something in the sports world, I have a forum where I can express it and promote it and know that at least a few people will read it.

Well tonight is one of those nights where I feel pretty strongly about something, and although I’m sure there are other, perhaps better ways I could spend a Sunday evening, I’m going to spend mine angrily pounding the keys of my laptop to defend a man whose alma mater is my sworn enemy.

Tonight, the Tennessee Volunteers announced the hiring of Cuonzo Martin (Purdue, ’95) as their new head coach. He will replace the disgraced Bruce Pearl, who did a tremendous job in building the Vols’ program but who could not stay in the line with NCAA rules.

It is a brilliant, inspired, forward-thinking hire by Tennessee.

Cuonzo Martin will succeed. He succeeds at everything he does, everywhere he goes. He’s a winner. And not in the cliched Charlie Sheen way that we now throw that term around. Cuonzo Martin is a winner in the truest sense of the word.

And now he’s going to a fan base that apparently doesn’t want him – just read the comments here. That’s a damn shame.

First things first. Everyone reading this needs to understand something, and it is not insignificant: I am a dyed-in-the-wool Indiana fan and IU grad who would usually rather be waterboarded than give credit or praise to anything having to do with Purdue. I’ve come around to respecting Purdue a bit more recently, but my track record of gold and black venom speaks for itself.

Yet, in my 20+ years as a focused, attentive, knowledgeable, passionate fan of Big 10 basketball, there are very few players I have ever respected more than Cuonzo Martin.

‘Zo started out at Purdue as a freshman playing alongside Glenn Robinson during the 1991-92 season. He averaged 5.8 points per game in 20.8 minutes and was 0-1 from downtown. As a sophomore, Martin played 33 minutes per game and upped his points per page to 11.9 but still went 0% from downtown (0-6).

But as a junior and a senior, called on to fill the void left by the Big Dog, Cuonzo Martin stepped up and became one the best, most versatile, most clutch players in the Big Ten over those two years. He scored 16. 3 points as a junior, 18.4 points as a senior, and made a combined 179 of 390 3-point attempts, or 45.9%.

Update: thanks to @jerees for straightening me out. I was a season ticket holder then, I should have remembered!

Cuonzo’s freshman year, Glenn Robinson was academically ineligible. Thus, Martin played with the Big Dog his sophomore and junior year, and then took over as a senior.

And he did all of this on bad knees and in the most demanding (at the time) conference in America. Hmm, I wonder if that kind of experience might be invaluable for a coach in relating to players as they go through their 3-4 years of college development. From afterthought to Big Ten MVP; seems like Cuonzo can pretty much relate to everyone on the roster.

That’s just a small tip in the impressive iceberg that is the Cuonzo Martin story. But I’ll pause now to relay a few tweets from Clay Travis, who follows Tennessee sports as closely as anyone I’m aware of, and whose opinion I usually respect. Tonight? Not so much.

So Tennessee fired Bruce Pearl to hire Cuonzo Martin. That really happened. Biggest downgrade in college hiring since? Send nominations.

Pearl’s son. Seconded RT @SPearl22: All I can do is laugh and say good luck sir

Both of these tweets came within an hour of the Martin hire being announced. The second one is Travis retweeting Bruce Pearl’s son, and I think we can all understand why Pearl’s son would feel like criticizing the hire.

But from Travis, who I’ve always found to be rational, reasonable, and well-informed, I expected a little more than the shock-jock, knee-jerk, myopic reaction that he’s provided tonight. Let those ignorant tweets simmer as we get back to talking about ‘Zo, the real star of the show in this post.

This is not my first time blogging about Cuonzo Martin. I wrote about him in December of 2009. Here is the 4th paragraph of said article:

Cuonzo Martin is now in his second season as the head coach of the Missouri State Bears and already has them undefeated and ranked in the top 25.

For longtime Big Ten basketball fans, this really should not be a surprise.

The purpose of my article, however, was not to laud Martin for how good of a job he’d done in a short time as Missouri State’s head coach. It also wasn’t to laud him for his impressive college career. The purpose was to echo the sentiments of an article by Kansas City Star writer Sam Mellinger, who penned a terrific profile of Martin’s tough upbringing on St. Louis’ east side as well as his debilitating and near-fatal fight with cancer.

Unfortunately, newspapers don’t know their elbows from their assholes when it comes to the Internet, so the link to the article is no longer live; but here is what I excerpted from it, which will give you at least a flavor of the Martin story:

Cuonzo Martin bites a whistle in his mouth and holds a yellow apple in his hand as he stares down the opportunity of his professional life, right here in front of him. He is pacing, stalking, his feet never sticking to the hardwood basketball court at Missouri State more than a half-second or so.

He shouldn’t be here. Not statistically, not medically, and not realistically. Guys who see what he’s seen and lived what he’s lived just don’t become head coach of one of biggest surprise teams in Division I basketball.

But here he is anyway, spreading his personal gospel of motion offense and nasty defense and especially about being tough. That last point is a way of life for Martin. His Bears, 9-0 and No. 23 in the RPI, are catching on quicker than anybody expected.

“I’m from East St. Louis,” he says. “We scratch. We fight. We make it work.”

…..

Cuonzo Martin doesn’t like to say too much about the things he saw as a kid. Through conversations with family and friends, the sad cliché of growing up in the projects emerges. Gangs. Drugs. Prostitution. Guns.

“We did some things that other people probably got in trouble for,” says Marco Harris, Martin’s best friend growing up. “We just didn’t get caught. I think God had a different plan.”

Martin likes to say that people in his hometown look out for those trying to make good. It’s a rough place, and maybe this is a strange dynamic, but he thinks his hometown protected him, helping him make it.

…..

Martin carried his baby boy as he walked through the door of his Indianapolis home and collapsed. He remembers stretching his arms out to drop the boy on the couch, saving the impact. His wife rushed him to the hospital, where they ran tests and X-rays. He’ll never forget the doctor’s voice.

“I don’t know if you’re going to live or die,” he said. “This is very serious.”

Thankfully, Cuonzo Martin did live, but not without having to fight non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma, as this article from MissouriStateBears.com recounts:

Cuonzo Martin lost weight at an alarming rate while he was playing professionally in Italy. He had trouble breathing and after several exams he was told that he had bronchitis and was required to return home immediately.

Upon his return Martin met with a US doctor. The doctor in a business-like, matter of fact tone told Martin that he had cancer, “life threatening cancer.” At 26 years old and in the prime of his life, Cuonzo Martin who grew up in the middle of the societal cancers of East St. Louis now faced Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma. The tumor was located between his heart and lungs and it was an aggressive and growing mass.

He was treated with the most advanced and most volatile treatments available at that time. The chemotherapy left him near death. He could barely move and his will to live was reduced to one prayer, “God, please let me live long enough to see my 4 month old son turn 18 years old.”

That was the prayer of a dying man who had only one option, trust that God might listen and give him one last chance to make a difference for his son, Joshua. God listened and today just before practice I watched Cuonzo Martin with emotion filled eyes and slightly trembling hands describe the horror he once faced one day at a time.

Tennessee fans, and Clay Travis, in the coming weeks and months when you wonder why Cuonzo Martin has such a nuanced, refreshing, and positive outlook on life, remember this passage. Let’s just say that he can truly appreciate every opportunity he is given because for ‘Zo every day truly is an opportunity that at one time he did not think he’d have.

So when I see retweets like this from Travis and other Tennessee fans, you’ll forgive me if I think it’s a little ridiculous and a lot short-sighted:

@Josh_Ward What a joke this whole process has been.

Why rush hire in one week? Are coaches with one career NIT win really that hot of commodities?

Here’s the thing: Travis isn’t entirely off base when he wonders if Martin is really that hot of a commodity. And this tweet, where he describes Martin as a “bargain basement hire” isn’t entirely off base either.

Martin is something of a “bargain basement” hire when you compare him to Flavor of the Month – and, granted, NCAA Tournament proven – coaches like Shaka Smart of VCU, who Travis earlier in the day implored Tennessee to go after. (As for Brad Stevens…ha! Like he’d even think about a job at an unethical football school.)

So while I’ll grant that Travis makes some points in Tennessee perhaps rushing the process and perhaps going off the radar with its choice, neither means that they didn’t get the best man for the job.

And I suppose this – some 1600 words into the post – is where I should talk about Cuonzo Martin the coach - even though he always has been and always will be 10x better and more valuable to a program as a man than he is as a coach.

For those Tennessee fans like @yelojaketgirl who tweeted to me [sic] “he came outta nowhere!!! thats a terrible choice!!!” just look ‘Zo’s short but telling history as a head coach:

In his first year, the Bears obviously struggled to a 10th place finish; but look at the improvement. They won 24 games his second season and won the CIT championship. This year, they were the regular season champions of one of the 10-12 best basketball conferences in America, the Missouri Valley Conference. The Bears unfortunately stumbled in their conference tournament and were not deemed worthy of a bid by the Selection Committee, though I know more than a few smart basketball people who thought they deserved a look.

Combine Martin’s early success as a head coach with his pedigree – he learned under Gene Keady and Matt Painter, both of whom are better coaches than the departing Bruce Pearl that Vol fans seem to be already missing – and I ask you: what is there not to like or feel good about?

Oh, and as to Clay Travis’ tweet above about how Tennessee could be so foolish as to hire a coach with “one career NIT win”…

• Guess how many NCAA Tournaments Bob Knight went to in six years at his first job, Army, before he was hired at Indiana: none. (He went to the NIT four times, never reaching the finals)
• Guess how many NCAA Tournament appearances Mike Krzyzewksi had at Army, his first job, before being hired at Duke: none. Guess how many NIT wins Coach K had in his five years at Army: none.

Now, you may say that it’s unfair to compare Cuonzo Martin to two of the greatest coaches in the history of college basketball. I say why?

No one looks back and questions their hiring, despite neither doing a whole hell of a lot at their first jobs. And you could argue that Martin has actually done more in his first job than either Knight or Krzyzewski did in theirs.

Cuonzo Martin at Missouri State, unlike Knight or Coach K at their first gigs, has a led a team to both a conference regular season championship and a post-season championship (CIT) in three years on the job. He’s done all of this mostly by changing attitudes and “coaching ‘em up” as we say; he hasn’t even had his own recruiting class go all the way through his program. And this is the guy that recruited JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore to Purdue – ever heard of them? So he can recruit too.

Update: Many of the commenters have mentioned how great Cuonzo Martin’s speech was when he received the MVC Coach of the Year. And it is. Here it is for those who have seen it:

And in case you needed one more bit of evidence that Cuonzo Martin is a good hire, how about the fact that the people who know ‘Zo best believe in him wholeheartedly. Consider this article about the uncertain future of Matt Painter from Travis over at Hammer and Rails tonight:

In this poker game I was like many in thinking that our safety blanket was Cuonzo Martin, another former player and assistant who just completed a successful season at Missouri State. It was assumed that he would take over if Painter departed. Of course, that was before the news broke that Martin was headed to Tennessee.

In that past 24 hours I have spoken with Bryan Gaskins, my editor at the Kokomo Tribune and a fellow Purdue alum. Last night he told me he had a bad feeling about the Painter situation, but that is far from anything definite. Seconds ago I receive and e-mail from him with the headline “WE’RE SCREWED” announcing that Martin was hired.

To me, this was a key piece taken off the table because everyone knew Martin was going to be the top target if Painter left.

Notice how easily Travis discusses Cuonzo as the supposed heir apparent to Painter, should Painter ever leave West Lafayette? Well I have news for you Tennessee fans: Purdue is at least 2X as good a job as Tennessee is. The Boilermakers, as I’ve detailed before, have perhaps the most underrated basketball program in America, which includes the most Big 10 titles of any school and a winning record against every Big 10 team. If Purdue was assuming Cuonzo as next in line for the throne – and believe me, Travis was not alone in this thought – then why the hell is he so objectionable for a school like Tennessee, that is and always will be football-first and less attractive a job than Purdue?

Here is the truth of the matter: Tennessee was reaching for the moon (Stevens), got a star (Cuonzo Martin), and they smartly decided that was good enough. You wonder why they acted so quickly, Clay Travis et al? Because if there is any truth to the Matt Painter-to-Missouri rumors, Purdue would snatch Cuonzo Martin up so fast it would make your head spin. And Purdue fans, who are both more intelligent and passionate basketball fans than Vols fans, would have been jumping for joy at the hire despite their disappointment over Painter leaving.

As it stands, I highly doubt Painter goes anywhere, and Tennessee just lucked into a smart, hungry, classy, tough young coach who can save its ass and rebuild its program in the wake of Bruce Pearl’s ignominious demise. Cuonzo Martin will succeed at Tennessee. He may not blow the doors off next year as he deals with the Pearl transition, but he’ll have Tennessee competing for SEC championships by his third year, just as he did at Missouri State.

But here’s the rub Tennessee: you treat your basketball job like it’s a destination – like Brad Stevens would leave Butler to run to Knoxville, or like Cuonzo Martin is somehow lucky you offered him a job.

Wake up.

Tennessee isn’t even on Brad Stevens’ radar, and you’re only getting a respected young coach like Cuonzo Martin because you acted quickly and didn’t wait around like the Clay Travises of the world wanted you too.

My prediction is that in 5-6 years, ‘Zo will have used his success in Knoxville as a stepping stone to a better job, probably in the Big Ten.

Sure, that might not happen. It’s no guarantee. Tennessee certainly has the money to keep top coaches if they want to, and the SEC is a premier conference that offers plenty of benefits to an ambitious coach like Martin.

But the point remains: Cuonzo Martin is not the lucky one tonight; Tennessee basketball is. Clearly – from the tweets and comments and message boards posts – it’s going to take a little while for that to sink in, but eventually it will. And then you’ll know why so many people from the Midwest applauded this hire from the moment it was announced.

Cuonzo Martin has already proven himself to be a very good young coach, but more importantly he’s proven himself to be an ever better man and an impeccable example for every player who will play for him at Tennessee. For an athletic department that has often lost its way over the last decade in choosing to cut corners and compromise ethics in the name of winning, you should be proud to hire a man who has never had nor taken the easy way out on his difficult, bumpy, cancerous road to success.

Tennessee fans, this may come as a shock to your elitist sensibilities, but you have proven tonight that you don’t deserve Cuonzo Martin. The least you could do is not wait until he’s winning to appreciate him.

**********

Update: In the minutes after I posted this, the following tweet came in from @rcjakesvoles:

@greggdoyelcbs @JerodMSF let’s not judge all Vol fans by @ClayTravisBGID . He’s gone shock jock. Martin best of guys we could get…by far

I am posting it because I want Tennessee fans to know that I have zero agenda here. I based my interpretation of the Tennessee fan reaction on the comments section of every article I read right after Zo’s hiring was announced, Clay Travis’ Twitter feed, and my own Twitter feed. If there are dissenting opinions of people who like the Cuonzo hiring, please post in the comment section below. And people who think I’m way off base with the post above, comment too.

We’re all about discussion here at MSF. Let’s have one.

———-

Update: I just received an email from a thoughtful Vols fan named Ryan, and I’d like to relay a portion of it here – because it contains a valid criticism of how I handled writing this article.

After expressing positivity at the Martin hiring, here is what the emailer said:

I do take issue with the end of your story.  For some reason, you choose to think that Clay Travis represents all Vol fans.  Vol fans are just like any other fans of any program.  When you replace someone who most people think is a top 15 coach, of course there’s going to be people that bitch about any coach that comes in.  Bruce was beloved in Knoxville.  He made his own bed in this situation, but that’s another subject.

But you wrote:

“Tennessee fans, this may come as a shock to your elitist sensibilities, but you have proven tonight that you don’t deserve Cuonzo Martin.”

After reading such a well written article, it’s kind of surprising that you would pop something like that in there.  What kind of research did you do to come to that conclusion?  Where did you read all of the negative rhetoric?  Is it because you read something that Clay Travis wrote?   Well then, by all means go ahead and judge a fanbase by one guy.

From what I’ve seen tonight, most people had similar reactions.  And that was “Who?”, followed by “what the hell?”, followed by “this could be pretty good” after getting info about Martin.  But again, please judge a fanbase by one or two people.

Otherwise, it was a great article.  I really look forward to seeing Martin come in and stamp his style on the program.  Despite what many people think, UT was not a rogue program.  We had a coach that stupidly decided to lie about a contact with juniors.  But it is what it is.  That is done and it’s on to Martin.  We welcome him as coach and hope he’s able to build on what Bruce started.

Ryan, you’re right. In coming passionately to Cuonzo Martin’s defense I generalized the Tennessee basketball fanbase based on an overwhelming number of comments and tweets I saw. I was so excited to sit down and write in opposition of these opinions that I didn’t take quite enough time to seek out the other side of Vol Nation.

With that said, our goal here at MSF is always to start conversations, not end them. And I’m very glad that so many people have commented to take me to task for generalizing the Tennessee fan opinion on the Martin hire. I’m also glad that so many seem in favor of it or at least willing to give Martin a fair shot.

I was wrong to generalize, and I apologize for that, though in the end I wouldn’t change the article because it is honest and induced a worthwhile conversation between inquiring minds. That’s my goal as a blogger and we achieved it tonight. And we’ll continue to have an open, lively discourse in the comment section.
———-

Update: Final note for the evening before I head off to bed…I responded to every comment received before around midnight Central Time tonight. Then I just looked, and we had about 10 more. I’m sorry if I can respond to all comments tonight/tomorrow/in the future. If you look at my other responses, and at the updates to the this post, I think that you’ll see I’ve taken the words to Tennesssee fans to heart and that I appreciate them. I wish I didn’t have to sleep/work…but alas, I am just a blogger and hence my real world begins again on Monday.

Sincerely though: thank you to everyone who visited, read, commented, tweeted, and posted in message boards about this column. Any bit of attention is always appreciated here at MSF, and we’ve been happy to welcome Tennessee fans into our water cooler discussion tonight.

Hopefully you’ve all found it as enlightening as I have.

———-

Update: I promise I’ll stop adding updates at some point, but I am getting so many thoughtful emails from Tennessee fans that make great points and provide a more well-rounded view of this story than what my initial post provided. Here is one that, I think, does a nice job of rationalizing the initial negative knee-jerk reaction from Vol fans:

I would like to defend the Tennessee fan base for reacting so negatively to the news.

The typical Tennessee fan had not done much research, and most of them had never even heard of Cuonzo Martin until last night.  This was made worse by the fact that names like Jamie Dixon, Brad Stevens and Jay Wright had been floated by Knoxville’s sports media as possible candidates for the job.  Any Vol fan who reads your article on Martin, I’m certain, would change their tune toward the new coach.

However, you cannot blame them for being disappointed by Martin when earlier in the week the press had implied they might be getting Jamie Dixon. I believe and certainly hope you are right, and that within three years Martin will have Knoxville saying, “Bruce who?”  Until then, let’s have fun watching the Cuonzo work.

Well said. And I’ve seen a huge shift in the tone of the reaction just in the last 12 hours, which is great to see.

One of the most entertaining activities to engage in with a fresh, new bracket is to see all the possible matchups that could reasonably (or unreasonably) materialize. In this post, I run down 10 matchups that I really hope to see happen, and encourage you to share yours as well.

Duke v Michigan in Round of 32

If you watched the Fab 5 documentary on ESPN last night, which was absolutely fantastic, then you know exactly why I’m listing this here. A major theme during the early part of the movie was how much the young Michigan players hated Duke. Jalen Rose even went so far as to say that, at the time, he felt like Duke would only recruit black players who were “Uncle Toms”. Obviously that was 20 years ago, but I wonder if the current young Wolverines will be inspired at all by the words of the most legendary team in their school’s history. People forget how big of a rivalry this once was.

Regardless of the Fab 5 connection, this game is intriguing because of style. Both teams love to hoist up 3-pointers, which means that we could see a very entertaining game if both teams are shooting well. And if the Dookies struggle from downtown, and Tim Hardaway Jr and the Wolves are hitting, there is legit upset potential here. Michigan coach Jon Beilien has done it in March before.

San Diego State v Michigan in Elite 8

While we’re on the subject of the Fab 5, how about Steve Fisher versus the school he led to the 1989 championship and then to two more title games with Webber, Rose, et al? Sure, none of the current Wolverines nor Beilein, have any connection to that time at Michigan, but there would certainly be something fitting about Fisher having to go through Big Blue on his way back to the Final 4.

Plus, if Michigan were to make it to the Elite 8 as an 8 seed, it would mean some craziness happened on their portion of the bracket, which is always fun. The Wolves would have to go through Duke, Arizona, and Texas to get there, and despite how well they have been playing I’m not quite sure they are ready for that yet.

UCONN v Tennessee in Elite 8

And speaking of NCAA sanctions…how about a matchup between Bruce Pearl and Jim Calhoun, two coaches who ran afoul of the NCAA and paid a pretty heavy price for it. Calhoun was suspended for three games while Pearl had to sit out half of the Volunteers’ SEC schedule and still could face more punishment.

And if all of the subplots about NCAA rule breaking got annoying, you could always just turn down the volume and watch the great Kemba Walker go up against Tennessee’s Scotty Hopson. These two are among the most dynamic scorers in the nation, and their teams typically go how they go. If nothing else, watching them trade buckets would be entertaining.

Purdue v Notre Dame in Sweet 16

Purdue and Notre Dame have established themselves as the top two big conference teams in the state of Indiana, with Butler obviously right there nipping at both team’s heels after last year’s tourney run. (As for Indiana…the Cream & Crimson is a sleeping giant, but it needs to wake up and start winning, soon.) Should the Boilers and Irish meet in the Sweet 16, it would present an opportunity for one team to establish bragging rights that certainly cannot hurt when it comes to recruiting the fertile basketball grounds of the Hoosier State.

In addition to the Hoosier State connection, this game would be intriguing simply because these are two really good teams. Purdue has legit stars in E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, and the Irish have Ben Hansbrough, who has emerged as a star this year. Big Ten/Big East bragging rights would also be on the line.

Kansas v Illinois in the Round of 32

This is a pretty easy one. Bill Self built the Illini into a national contender before taking the Kansas job and handing the reins over to Bruce Weber. With Self’s recruits, Weber made a Sweet 16 and a title game appearance his first two years in Champaign. Since then, Weber has not gotten past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, and he is starting to the feel the heat. The Illini underachieved this year, despite a pretty talented roster.

As for Self, he’s done quite well for himself in Lawrence. The man can recruit like no other, and he consistently has the Jayhawks among the best teams in the nation. They have won the Big 12 for almost a decade straight, and this year they are looking to avenge last year’s disappointing loss to Northern Iowa. Yet again, Self has a team with title potential.

Illinois certainly has enough talent to compete with Kansas, and a win to move on to the Sweet 16 surely would buy Weber some goodwill with a frustrated fan base. To get it, he’d have to beat Self, whose shadow Weber has not been able to escape since he took over.

Ohio State v North Carolina in the Elite 8

If chalk holds in the East Region, the Buckeyes and Tar Heels will meet up in the Elite 8. From a basketball perspective, this would be a fun matchup featuring the nation’s two best freshman: Jared Sullinger and Harrison Barnes. Watching Sullinger bang down low with Tyler Zeller would be highly entertaining, as would seeing Barnes compete against Ohio State’s terrific wing trio of William Buford-David Lighty-Jon Diebler.

And from a non-basketball perspective, this game would present an opportunity for each basketball team to take the minds of its school’s fans off of turmoil in their respective football programs. North Carolina had the agent scandal and now Ohio State has the Jim Tressel saga, so both schools have dealt and are dealing with pretty significant controversy regarding lack of compliance with NCAA rules. But on this night, all that would matter is basketball, with a Final 4 berth on the line.

Butler v Kansas State in Sweet 16

This would be a rematch of last year’s Elite 8 matchup, which Butler won 63-56 to advance to the Final 4. The Bulldogs no longer have their 2010 star Gordon Heyward, but the Wildcats do still have their #1 option in guard Jacob Pullen. Both of these teams struggled out of the gates this year, but ended the season playing very good basketball. Each team still has enough talent and certainly enough experience to pull a few upsets, making this game somewhat reasonable to hope for, but still very unlikely.

Wisconsin v BYU in the Elite 8

Obviously any game with BYU is intriguing because of the Jimmer factor, but you may be wondering why I’d care about seeing the Cougars play boring ol’ Wisconsin. Simple: Jordan Taylor.

In games I watched this season, no two players were able to absolutely take over portions of games more than Taylor and Jimmer Fredette. Taylor single-handedly pulled Wisconsin back from the brink against Ohio State to hand the Buckeyes their first loss. He also put on one of the great shooting displays I’ve ever seen at Assembly when the Badgers whitewashed Indiana. Surely there would be some mano-a-mano moments between these two great shooters, and it would make for a great Elite 8 matchup.

UAB v Kentucky in the Round of 32

This is a game that only an IU fan could appreciate, and as soon as I remind you that Mike Davis is coaching UAB, the Hoosier fans will start to nod in agony.

Remember this?

Mike Davis’ infamous meltdown occurred during the 2002-2003 season, after the Hoosiers made their unexpected run to the title game. We were ranked in the top 10 at the time, and everybody expected yet another great season. But the loss to Kentucky, punctuated by Davis totally losing his cool, created bad momentum for the season. We finished a disappointing 21-13, 8-8 in the conference, and lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The next year we missed the tourney completely. Two years later, Davis was gone, replaced by He Who Shall Not Be Named, and now here we are missing the tournament for the third straight season after winning three Big Ten games.

And it can all be traced back to the infamous Mike Davis head slap.

Here’s hoping that if UAB can win its first round game over Clemson, and then beat West Virginia, that Coach Davis gives us some more entertaining theatrics against the Wildcats. I may not be able to watch though. Too painful.

And finally, just for shits and giggles…

Indiana State v Michigan State in National Championship Game

The likelihood of this happening is about the same as the likelihood of me ever fulfilling my dream of having a perfect bracket. The Sycamores are the 14th seed in the East and would have to go through Syracuse, North Carolina, Ohio State, and whoever comes out of the West region to make it to the title game. Michigan State is the 10 seed in the Southeast, and while they have a team loaded with Final 4 experience, the Spartans have been far too inconsistent this year to expect a deep March run.

But it sure would be fun, wouldn’t it? Not only would we get to relive Magic and Larry highlights, which are a joy for any basketball fan no matter how often you see them, but this would truly be an incredible Cinderella story combined with a coach in Tom Izzo adding yet another exciting tournament chapter to the storybook of his legendary career.

Think I’ve gone mad for suggesting this one? Well hey, they call it March Madness for a reason…

What potential March Madness matchups do you hope materialize?

After Wednesday, the Boilers will go as far as seniors E’Twaun Moore and JaJaun Johnson can take them in the Big 10 and NCAA Tournaments, but will then have to fill those gargantuan shoes next season. Indiana, on the other hand, loses only defensive specialist Jeremiah Rivers while adding McDonald’s All-American Cody Zeller to a lineup that will be more experienced and more talented than any IU team since Eric Gordon was wearing the Cream & Crimson. And with Tom Crean already lining up commitments from top in-state recruit after top in-state recruit for the 2012, 2013, and 2014 classes, the balance of power in the Basketball State seems to be shifting back towards Bloomington.

Crean and Purdue head coach Matt Painter recently discussed the relative states of their programs, and as expected MSF was there to capture the entire conversation. It is presented below, verbatim, in photo story format.

If the image above does not load properly, click here to view in a new window.

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Among many: he’s battled back from three – yes three – ACL tears in his knees; he gave a lot of his time in high school, and still does when he’s home, to our family’s little brother in the Big Brother/Big Sister program; he does well academically and will someday be an outstanding physical therapist; he’s a ridiculously awesome gamer (though we debate whether that’s a good use of his time or not…); he has impressive game with the ladies; and many more.

But I’m not sure I’ve ever been as proud of him as I was last night when he sent me a few pictures from his foray into the Land of Mediocrity: West Lafayette, Indiana.

As you know, I am a proud IU grad (class of ’04) who grew up in Bloomington attending every IU home game over a 7-8 year span. My brother Josh is currently a sophomore in Bloomington. I was worried for a while that he wouldn’t get to experience what Indiana basketball is all about, but based on the early returns from Tom Creans’ indefatigable recruiting efforts, it should be quite an enjoyable time to be an IU student and fan in Bloomington (more on that in a bit).

We lived in West Lafayette during my high school years (trust me, the initial discussion of that move was a very strange dinner conversation), so from time to time Josh heads north ’til he smells it and west ’til steps in it to visit his old friends who still live there. Last night was one of those times, and it just so happened to coincide with a Purdue home basketball game. Because the friends Josh is staying with are long-time Purdue sufferers (is there another kind?), he decided to tag along with them to Mackey Arena to watch a pretty damn good Purdue team and also to marvel at the banner-less rafters.

And, as any good IU fan should do, he proudly, fearlessly, and unabashedly wore his Cream and Crimson. They wouldn’t let him into the Paint Crew, but he got pics as close to it as he could. I share them with you now as a very proud older brother. I may not have done everything perfectly over the years in setting a good example, but I clearly got the important things right.

Josh, you da man.

I’m sure you endured some taunts from jealous Purdue fans who have reveled in IU’s recent misery because they cheer for a program with an Elite 8/Sweet 16 ceiling. Hey, I’d be jealous and frustrated and have an inferiority complex too.

But soon enough the balance of power on the court will have shifted back to the south side of the state. It already has off the court with recruiting, where IU once again owns its talent-rich home state, so the on-court shift is but a matter of time. Once that happens, we’ll see if any awkward engineering student in a plaid shirt has the cojones to wander into Assembly Hall. He’d probably get dizzy from disorientation seeing the phrase “National Champions” written everywhere.

The Boilers have had a nice run of dominance over us recently, no question; and it will probably continue this year. But thanks for giving Boiler fans a much-needed reminder that Indiana may be down right now, but we’re never out…and it won’t be too long before we’re completely  back.

Update: My brother just saw this post and texted me the following:

I wish I’d gotten a video of the entire crowd chanting “IU sucks” against me! And better photos. But I’m not trusting anyone with my phone over there.

Good call.

@JerodMSF Robbie Hummel: OUT FOR SEASON

As you know, I’m an IU fanatic. I hate Purdue, with every fiber of my being. Yet I still felt like someone had punched me in the stomach the second I read that.

And sorry Tyler, I cannot agree with you. The IU fan in me most certainly does not love this.

You’ll remember that Hummel also tore his ACL last year. He reportedly tore the same one in practice yesterday and now will miss the entire 2010-11 season.

There is nothing more I hate as a sports fan than when good athletes get injured, even when those athletes are on teams I hate. It just sucks. Hummel has done nothing but represent the Big Ten and college basketball well. As Mark Titus put it on Twitter, “Life isn’t fair sometimes.”

No, no it’s not.

Understand, I don’t necessarily feel bad for Purdue as a program. And by that I mean that injuries are part of sports. Scott May, Alan Henderson, Maurice Creek…I could go on and on listing great IU players who suffered injuries that derailed seasons. It happens. It sucks, but it happens. And it can happen to the teams you’re the most excited about, as when Henderson was hurt during IU’s 1992-93 season…my favorite sports team of all-time.

Who I feel bad for is Hummel, and to a certain extent E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, the trio that has helped Matt Painter rebuild Purdue and that were coming back together for one more run. As a college basketball fan I was curious to see just how good this team could be…while obviously hoping that they didn’t end up being as good as I feared they could be. (The one trump card I have over Purdue fans is the five banners! We can’t have Purdue getting one…)

But I certainly didn’t want them to not live up to expectations because of another season-ending injury to Hummel, and especially when you injure the same knee.

My younger brother did the same thing in high school, tearing the same ACL twice (and he actually tore the other one once too). The rehab sucks and it can really mess with you mentally to work that hard to return and then suffer the same injury again. After seeing my brother go through that, I wish it no one…obviously not even my worst enemy.

Best wishes to Robbie Hummel. Hopefully he makes a full recovery and can have a healthy NBA career. He can be a solid bench contributor to a good NBA team…so long as his knees to cooperate.

The most surprising part of Saturday’s 23-12 Irish victory? The competence shown on both sides of the ball.Maybe calling ND’s competence level on Saturday surprising is a bit of a stretch — and certainly disrespectful to head coach Brian Kelly. But however you choose to define it, the level of play on the field renewed the faith of many Irish fans and proved that Notre Dame could still field a competent and well-coached team. This was certainly a change from the previous two coaching regimes.

Of course there are still a number of question marks for this ND team, as there are with any team undergoing a major transition, but there were a lot of things to be happy about on Saturday:

Running Game – Yes, the Irish featured a high-quality rushing attack, slicing through the Purdue defense to the tune of 153 rushing yards. While the total may not seem high at first glance, ND’s featured backs Armando Allen and Cierre Wood averaged 5.2 and 8.3 yards per carry respectively. The holes were there and both backs were able to rip off big gains. Not bad for the supposedly pass-happy spread offense that scared many Irish fans in the offseason.

QB Pressure/Tackling – The Irish defense looked completely different from last year, especially along the front seven. While you can focus on any of a number of positives from the game, the renewed tackling skills and pressure from the line really stood out. The Irish ended the game with four sacks, and should have had a few more. And the sure tackling was a welcome change from last year’s debacle of a defense.

Discipline – When Purdue tried to draw the ND defense offside midway through the first half, all they managed to get was a false start penalty. At that very moment, everyone watching knew that at the very least, this Irish squad was more disciplined than they had been in years. The team ended Saturday with a total of two penalties.

Emotion — The Irish were ready to go right out of the gate, smacking Purdue in the face early, and getting points on the board. I’m starting to sound like a broken record, but again this was something Irish fans hadn’t seen in a few years.

Now for those question marks…

Missed assignments – Watching Irish quarterback Dayne Crist be simultaneously sacked by three Boilermaker lineman at once was a scary throwback to the 2007 Michigan game. Given the lack of depth for this team at QB, it will be vital that Crist stays healthy, which means it’s vital that the line hit their assignments every down. But at least it wasn’t through a lack of effort.

Worn down lines – As much as Purdue fans won’t want to admit it, the Irish basically let them stay in the game in the second half. I saw this as the ND team wearing down on both sides of the ball – especially on the lines. Unless some of the younger guys step up, lack of depth will be an issue, especially along the D line as the season goes on.

Perimeter defense – A bit too often Purdue players were able to turn the corner and get around the Irish containment. While it didn’t hurt them as much against the Boilermakers, a similar performance can sink the team against Michigan and Denard Robinson this week.

Quality of opponent — Perhaps the biggest question of the day was just how good is this Purdue team the Irish beat. If they’re a top-half Big Ten squad, then Saturday’s win is all the more impressive. But if this Boilermaker team is bottom of the barrel, then the Irish might be in trouble.

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* – Cierre Wood photo credit: The Subway Domer

If you’re a fan of Indiana football (the state, not the university), you have to enjoy this first week match-up between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Purdue Boilermakers.

Both teams come into this season with a lot of mystery to them. They both begin 2010 with a new quarterback and an inexperienced backfield, which makes analyzing and predicting that much harder; but it also will lead to some surprises…some bad and some good.

Purdue at Notre Dame TV, Kickoff Time, and Spread

• Purdue-Notre Dame Date: Saturday, September 4th
• Purdue-Notre Dame Time: 3:30 ET
• Purdue-Notre Dame TV: NBC
• Purdue-Notre Dame Spread: ND -11.5

Purdue at Notre Dame Preview

Purdue, after starting last season 1-5, finished 5-7, 4-4 in the Big Ten. The Boilermakers are led by quarterback and Miami transfer Robert Marve, whose main weapon is receiver Keith Smith. The Boilermakers’ success on offense will be determined by how well they balance their running and passing game. There’s defiantly a lot of pressure on the newcomer, Marve.

Purdue has a very young, athletic offense that has some big play potential, especially against a weak defensive team like the Irish.

Notre Dame comes into this season with a new coach, and, hopefully, a new defensive outlook. With a defense that let up almost 400 yards total offense last season, fans have been wishing for a better performance this season. The problem is that there is little proof that the Irish will be better on defense.

There are even more mysteries on the offense side of the ball.

Questions start right at the quarterback spot. Leading the Irish is junio Dayne Crist. An early rival game is a perfect chance to see how this kid will perform under some pressure.

Purdue at Notre Dame Prediction

First week rival games seem to show, early on, a little more from teams than starting the season against a non-rival team. Knowing this I am expecting to see a hard fought, close game.

Pick: Notre Dame wins a nail bitter 23-20.

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Notre Dame fans photo credit: Kanka’s Sports Page