Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens come into tonight’s game with a record of 10-3, which puts them in second place in the AFC behind the Texans (10-3), who are in first via a tiebreaker. They have the same record as the Steelers, but own first place in the AFC North because they defeated Pittsburgh in both of their meetings this season.

Baltimore is on a four game win streak, and in the last three they have not allowed more than ten points to either of the three teams. Given two of those teams were the Browns and the Colts, but the six points allowed to San Francisco was an impressive accomplishment.

The defense will have to step up to the occasion, as the Chargers have scored a combined 75 points in their last two games. Ray Lewis has practiced all week and is expected to play, after missing the last month due to a toe injury. The team has already won four in a row without him in on the field, so his return will only bolster the already strong Ravens defense.

On offense, the Ravens will have to focus on running the ball. The Chargers have the seventh ranked pass defense, and will certainly give Flacco and the receivers a tough time. It would be foolish not to base the offense off of Ray Rice and the run game, as Flacco seems to make mistakes when he is forced to pass the ball too often. Rice has 1,029 yards on the year with ten touchdowns, so he should be the focal point of the playcalling.

San Diego Chargers

The Chargers have won two straight games, over the Jaguars and the Bills, but it may be a little too late. After starting the season 4-1, the Chargers lost six games in a row, with the largest margin of victory being eleven points. They have had trouble closing out games, which was evident on the infamous Monday Night game on Halloween when Philip Rivers fumbled the snap which would have set up a chip-shot game winning field goal.

For the Chargers to even make the playoffs, they would have to win the rest of their games. This is no easy task, with their last three games being against the Ravens, Lions, and Raiders. On top of that, they would have to catch up to Denver, who is two games ahead of the Chargers with three games remaining. This will also be difficult as the Broncos have the Bills and the Chiefs in their last two games, after the showdown against the Pats’ today.

Ravens-Chargers Prediction

San Diego’s chances are slim, but since they are still alive, they have to play like it. This will be no easy task going up against Baltimore’s third ranked overall defense. They will have to take shots through air, and put trust in Philip Rivers, who has not thrown an interception in his last three games.

For the Chargers to even have a shot, they will have to take care of the ball. The Ravens have slipped up in games against Jacksonville and Seattle this year, but they will not let that happen again this late in the season.

Prediction: Baltimore 24 | San Diego 21

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Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers

• Ravens-Chargers Date: Sunday, December 18th at 8:20 PM on NBC
• Ravens-Chargers Announcers: Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth
• Ravens-Chargers Point Spread: Ravens -1.5
• Ravens-Chargers Over-Under Odds: 44

Here are some last minute tips for this week in fantasy football on guys like Philip Rivers, Rashard Mendenhall, Roy Helu, and others.

And once you’re done reading them, head on over to our Sunday live chat and get any last minute questions answered.

Fantasy Football Week 15: Big Names Who Could Disappoint

Philip Rivers

The Chargers are still technically alive for the playoffs, but their chances are very slim. It is another season of disappointment in San Diego, even though they are currently on a two-game winning streak.

Philip Rivers and his Chargers are going up against the Ravens, who are looking to hold their lead over the Steelers in the AFC North. The Ravens have the fourth ranked pass defense in the NFL, and have held their last three opponents to ten points or less. Rivers will have a tough time getting anything going, and should have a down week in a fantasy sense.

Rashard Mendenhall

Mendenhall has only gone over 100 yards once this season, and he will not do so for a second time on Monday night against the 49ers.

The 49ers have the league’s top ranked rush defense, at an average of 70.5 yards per game, and should hold strong against Mendenhall on Monday Night Football. He has scored his touchdowns in spurts this year, but the Steelers will have to find points through the air on Monday night.

Sam Hurd

For obvious reasons.

Torrey Smith

Smith has burst onto the scene this season as a rookie with the Ravens. He has six touchdowns on the year, but three came in Week 3 against St. Louis.

The Chargers have the seventh ranked pass defense, so the Ravens will have to try and win through the run game. Ray Rice should have a solid game, but Torrey Smith will not see much of the action.

Fantasy Football Week 15: Under-the-Radar Players to Consider

Roy Helu

Helu is a bright spot on the Redskins and has taken over the running back position in Washington. He has rushed for over 100 yards in three straight games, and he could easily reach that number today against the Giants.

New York has the 22nd ranked rush defense in the league, and Helu, being a threat both in the run and pass game, should be able to rack up a decent amount of points.

Eric Decker

Decker has seen a lack of receptions due to an increase in production by Demaryius Thomas, but he is still the Broncos’ leading receiver.

The Patriots have the worst pass defense in the entire league, so Tebow should be able to spread the ball around. John Fox will look to take advantage of the Pats’ secondary, and call more pass plays for Superman Tebow. Decker should be able to find the endzone at least once today.

Evan Moore

Moore has not been utilized as much as he should be by the Browns, but with Benjamin Watson on IR, Moore is now the main option at TE.

The Cardinals have the 23rd ranked pass defense, and with Seneca Wallace making his first start of the season, Moore should be the main option when, not if, the Browns are in the red zone.

For some of you, that means you have a team (or hopefully teams) on bye this week. If so, major kudos to you.

For others of you, Week 14 means that it’s the first week of the playoffs. If so, good luck, and hopefully the advice in this post will help you move on.

For others, Week 14 is the last week of your regular season. Maybe you’ve clinched a playoff spot or maybe you’re still scratching and clawing for one. Regardless, hopefully we can do you and your lineup some good with our picks in this week’s start em, sit em.

And for some of you this may be your first week without fantasy football – if your playoffs start this week and you did not make it; but if that’s the case, why would you be reading this?

Alas, if you’re here, you are looking for help in Week 14. And you’re in luck, because that is exactly what you’re about to get.

My apologies to those who came looking for Jon. I’m taking the start/sit reins today. I will do my very best to get you set up for success in this most pivotal of weeks.

Also, no looking back to Week 13, but not because it was a bad week. Frankly, I don’t know. I don’t even remember Jon’s picks. I assume some worked and some didn’t, like any week. But with the stakes now raised, there is no time for the rearview mirror. We look forward.

Here are your Week 14 start/sit picks:

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em QB: Matthew Stafford, DET (vs MIN)

Put this one in the no-brainer category.

Frankly, I feel a little bad making it the start em pick at QB, because it’s the equivalent of taking candy from a baby.  Nonetheless, it’s here, because if you own Matthew Stafford you absolutely must have him in your lineup this week.

And it all boils down to matchup.

If you watched the Broncos-Vikings game last week, you saw Broncos wide receivers running around wide open all day, providing easy pitch and catch opportunities for the not-so-renowned-as-a-thrower Tim Tebow. If Tebow, Demaryius Thomas, and Eric Decker could do that against Minnesota, what do you think Stafford, Megatron, Burleson, Titus Young, and Brandon Pettigrew will do?

Chances are they’ll pick up a few dumb penalties…and a lot of passing/receiving yards and touchdowns. Don’t be shocked if Stafford, at home in a must win game for the Lions, ends up as the top scoring player in fantasy football this week, even though I’m going to be a little conservative with my projection.

Matthew Stafford fantasy football Week 14 projection: 345 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start em QBs for Week 14:

• Rex Grossman faces a New England defense that made Dan Orlovsky startable last week. I would not start Grossman in a standard league, but he’s a solid two-QB league option this week; or a desperation fill-in with upside if your QB slot got hit by the injury bug.
• Philip Rivers looked like the old Philip Rivers Monday night, against a pretty good defense too. With his weapons healthy, and Buffalo on the schedule, Rivers is safe to deploy this week.
• Every week I scan for who is facing the Colts. This week it’s Joe Flacco. Play Joe Flacco. Even though the Ravens will likely run, run, run against Indianapolis, Flacco will throw enough to be useful. At the very least, he’s safe.

Sit Em QB: Michael Vick, PHI (at MIA)

Don’t do it. Don’t even think about it.

I know that Michael Vick owners are salivating at the thought of Vick returning this week and leading them to fantasy glory down the stretch, but in a one-QB league I wouldn’t even think about starting Vick unless I didn’t have another top 20 option. There are two good reasons:

1. Can you really trust Vick to stay healthy? No, you can’t. Really, you can’t trust him to stay healthy any week, but I’m especially leery about starting him without seeing him play a game since the rib injury.
2. Have you seen what the Dolphins are doing lately? They’ve won four out of five games, giving up a total of four touchdowns in that span.

With so many elite QBs outperforming Vick this season, and many marginal ones with good matchups, why would you risk your one QB spot on Vick?

Don’t do it.

Michael Vick fantasy football Week 14 projection: 200 passing yards, 55 rushing yards, 1 total TD, 1 turnover

Other sit em QBs for Week 14:

• Those of you who relied on Andy Dalton early in the season need to look elsewhere. He’s starting to hit a rookie wall…and this week that wall is Houston and its ball control offense and stingy D.
• I’m not necessarily telling you to sit Tim Tebow, because he always finds a way to put up at least serviceable fantasy numbers. That said, don’t expect a reprise of last week when he faces the Bears.
• Josh Freeman has been a major disappointment this year. I know that Philip Rivers torched Jacksonville Monday night, but the JAX defense has been pretty stingy overall this year. There is more reason to trust Jacksonville’s D than to trust Freeman.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em RBs

Start Em RB: Ryan Mathews, SD (vs BUF)

As with the Stafford selection, I feel like I may be insulting your intelligence a bit with this pick; however, because Mathews has been so up and down, and because people always ask about him in the comment sections and live chats, I feel compelled to make my Week 14 love for him official.

First, consider that Mathews is red hot. He has two straight 100-yard games, and on Monday night he torched Jacksonville for 112 yards on a mere 13 carries. He also got into the end zone, which he doesn’t always do.

Second, consider his Week 14 opponent, the Bills, who are very generous to opposing running backs. And with Philip Rivers and the Chargers’ passing game getting going, there will be plenty of space for Mathews to roam; and we know how much he loves space.

Ryan Mathews fantasy football Week 14 projection: 115 yards rushing, 1 TD, 15 yards receiving

For the record, Mathews is clearly the #1 option in San Diego now over Mike Tolbert, though Tolbert still has some value as a flex option because he he’ll catch a few passes and get some goalline carries. But there is no debate right now between the two. Mathews is the guy.

Other start em RBs for Week 14:

• These should go without saying, but just to be sure: Ray Rice (v IND); Rashard Mendenhall v (CLE); Maurice Jones-Drew (v TB); Michael Turner (at CAR) – they are all top 10 options because of their proven ability and matchup.
• Adrian Peterson is supposed to play this week, at least that’s what I’m hearing. DO NOT ASK ME IF YOU SHOULD START HIM. Yes, you should. If he plays, he starts, even if the opponent is San Francisco (it’s not, it’s Detroit). End of discussion.
• Reggie Bush has to keep starting; and frankly, you should feel good about it at this point. With the Dolphins set to face the porous Eagles’ run defense, you should actually feel great about it.
• Shonn Greene is getting ready for another December heat up. He scored three TDs last week and faces the Chiefs this week. I like it.
• Looking deeper, C.J. Spiller is a decent option. He had 22 touches two weeks ago and 17 touches last week, and he’s picked up a few chunks under 200 yards with a TD during that span. You saw what MJD did the Chargers in a losing effort last week. Spiller could do about 75% of that…which is still good.

Sit Em RB: LeGarrette Blount, TB (at JAX)

Coming off of two 100-yard games, Blount looked like a surefire, slam dunk start against Carolina in Week 13. The Panthers have been the most generous defense to opposing running backs this year. What did Blount do? He punched 19 yards out of 11 carries. Yuck.

When it gets to playoff time, fantasy football is a lot like real football: you have to go with guys you can trust. It’s great that Blount has the potential for highlight reel leaps and thunderous trucks in any given week. He also can lay super eggs like he did last week. I don’t like kind of variance in my fantasy lineup in must-win scenarios.

Plus, I don’t like Blount’s matchup this week. Forget about what the Chargers did to the Jags last week. Jacksonville was dealing with turmoil galore and just happened to run into a Philip Rivers-led buzzsaw that was finally healthy. San Diego would have put up 20+ on San Francisco Monday night. Make no mistake: Jacksonville has a good defense, and they’ve been pretty stingy to opposing backs all year.

With Tampa Bay being frighteningly inconsistent as a team this year, and Blount dealing with a few unexpected distractions, I’m leaving him on my bench.

LeGarrette Blount fantasy football Week 14 projection: 13 carries, 40 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit em RBs for Week 14:

• Every week you should go down the list of running backs and see who is facing San Francisco. This week it’s Beanie Wells. Sit him. Even with the 49ers likely to be without Patrick Willis, they’ll shut down Arizona’s run game. Furthermore, it’s reasonable to fear Wells getting hurt mid-game. Add it up, and I don’t trust him this week, despite his strong play of late.
• Cedric Benson owners have a tricky decision this week. Benson faces a very good Houston defense, but he has also proven that he can produce against good defenses even when he isn’t racking up yards (see his 41-yard, 2-TD day versus Baltimore). Benson is not an automatic sit because of how big a part of Cincy’s offense he is, but he’s only a borderline top-20 guy because of the matchup, so if you’re loaded at RB he’d be the guy to leave on the bench.
• Did you know the Falcons have the 5th-stingiest fantasy defense against the run? It’s true. That means that there could be fewer points to go around for Cam, DeAngelo, and JStew this week. Since Cam seems to be the one who gets most of the TDs, I’d consider leaving the other two on my bench unless desperate. (Remember: all that production the last two weeks has come against Indy and Tampa.)

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em WRs

Start Em WR: Jabar Gaffney, WAS (v NE)

Yes, I realize that by telling you to start Jabar Gaffney that I am essentially asking you to have faith in Rex Grossman; but I urge you not to look at it that way. Think about it more in terms of me telling you to not trust a Patriots secondary that gives up more average points per game to opposing wide receivers than any other defense in football.

You read that right. In fact, the Patriots give up 2.3 more fantasy points to opposing WRs than even the moribund Vikings do! Here, I’ll prove it.

Plus:

• Gaffney has 12 catches for 187 yards over the last two weeks, including one touchdown.
• Santana Moss has been back for the last two weeks, but he only has nine catches for 71 yards; so clearly he is a) the second option for Grossman and b) helping to draw attention away from Gaffney.
• Fred Davis is suspended, meaning more targets to go around; and surely a few of those targets will go Gaffney’s way.

Gaffney doesn’t score with enough regularity to trust him for TD production, so that makes him barely a top-20 option; but I think you can trust him to give you 6-8 catches and close to 100 yards. If you play three wide receivers, it’s nice to be able to bank on that from one of them.

Jabar Gaffney fantasy football Week 14 projection: 7 catches, 90 yards, .5 TDs (because I think he’ll catch one, but it’s probably more likely that he doesn’t…so don’t expect it.)

Other start em WRs for Week 14:

• I like Torrey Smith this week. He’s struggled the last two weeks, but Baltimore has faced the 49ers and Browns, two teams that have been pretty good against opposing receivers. This week Baltimore faces Indianapolis. Yes, I just chuckled devilishly too.
• Laurent Robinson was finally held out of the end zone last week, but he still amassed 70+ yards on four catches. With Miles Austin slated to return this week, you might be tempted to sit Robinson. I wouldn’t. Tony Romo trusts him, and the Giants are generous to opposing wide receivers. Of the two, give me the guy who has been playing the last two months and caught seven TDs in six games.
• I wouldn’t get down on Steve Smith despite his decreasing production the last month. Atlanta will force Carolina to pass, and the Panthers are without Brent Grimes in the secondary. I expect fireworks from the original Steve Smith.
• When he’s healthy, all Malcom Floyd does is produce. He’s healthy, the matchup is good, and I don’t care if he’s third fiddle in SD’s passing game. Start him.

Sit Em WR: Brandon Lloyd, STL (at SEA)

I’ve been high on Lloyd ever since he came over to St. Louis, and most of the time I’ve been right. Even though the Rams’ offense sucks, Lloyd has been able to carve out a niche as the lone consistent fantasy producer. I’m not sure how he’s done it, but he has.

Last week, however, Lloyd tallied only one catch against the mighty 49ers, and things aren’t looking too good this week. Not only is Sam Bradford dinged up, but his normal backup A.J. Feeley is hurt too. That means that…wait for it…Tim Brandstater could be starting at QB for St. Louis.

Combine the Rams’ woeful offense with this QB uncertainty, and then mix in Seattle’s underrated defense at home, and you have a recipe for a sit ‘em.

Brandon Lloyd fantasy football Week 14 projection: 2 receptions, 40 yards

Other sit em WRs for Week 14:

• Dwayne Bowe is on Revis Island this week, and he still has Tyler Palko tossing him the pigskin. Just didn’t want you to forget.
• I’m not telling you to sit them automatically, because both have been consistently productive this year, but just know that Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are facing the stingiest pass defense in the league. Granted, the Browns’ pass D numbers are skewed because teams just gash them with the run…but still, 12 weeks is a long time and receivers underperform against Cleveland on a weekly basis. If you have comparable options, go with them this week.
• The Redskins are stingier than you might think against opposing wide receivers. Play Gronk and Wes Welker for sure, but this is a week when Deion Branch doesn’t have a great deal of upside.
• Remember what I said above regarding my dislike for variance? Well, Julio Jones is the poster boy for wide receiver variance this year. Since Carolina is actually decent against the pass, Jones is another guy who is not an automatic sit…but who I’d have a hard time starting in a must-in situation because of how unpredictable he is.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em TEs

Start Em TE: Kellen Winslow, TB (at JAX)

See, I don’t completely hate the Buccaneers (though I did decide to use a picture of Kellen Winslow in a Browns uniform…just because) nor irrationally love Jacksonville.

Despite their defensive consistency this year (minus Week 13) Jacksonville hasn’t been great against opposing tight ends. They actually give up the third most fantasy points per week to them.

Combine this with my distrust in the Bucs’ running game, and the Bucs’ inconsistency at wide receiver this year, and Kellen Winslow seems like, at worst, a safe and reliable option this week. You could do worse from your tight end in a big spot.

Kellen Winslow fantasy football Week 14 projection: 6 receptions, 60 yards, .5 TDs (again, I’m splitting the difference here; because of the matchup I think he can get one, but he only has two on the year.)

Other start em TEs for Week 14:

• If you’re desperate, consider Kevin Boss. The Packers give up more points to opposing tight ends than anyone, and the Raiders have had constant issues with their wide receivers this year.
• Tony Gonzalez and Vernon Davis are big but inconsistent names who I think you should trust this week because of matchups.

Sit Em TE: Jermaine Gresham, CIN (v HOU)

It’s tough to put Gresham here, because he’s been playing much better lately; and he really should have two more touchdowns if controversial calls had gone his way. Still, the Texans’ defense locks down opposing tight ends like few others, so as tough as Gresham is to sit, it’s even tougher to trust him.

Jermaine Gresham fantasy football Week 14 projection: 4 receptions, 35 yards

Other sit em TEs for Week 14:

• Scott Chandler has actually been decently productive without scoring touchdowns over the last few weeks. However, his production has come against the Jets and Dolphins, two teams that are more generous to opposing tight ends than the Chargers are.
• Aaron Hernandez is far from a must-sit, but he is no longer 1b to Rob Gronkowski’s 1a in New England. Gronk is clearly #1, with Hernandez picking up the scraps as #2. That still usually means 4-5 catches and 45-50 yards per week, but the touchdowns just haven’t been there. Project accordingly.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em D/STs

Start Em D/ST: Seattle Seahawks (v STL)

The Seahawks have been a better fantasy defense than you might think this year, and they typically play better at home. Mix in a little Tim Brandstater (if Sam Bradford can’t go) and you have all the makings of a safe, potentially explosive fantasy defense for Week 14.

Seattle Seahawks D/ST fantasy football Week 14 projection: 10 or fewer points, several sacks, 2+ turnovers

Other start em D/STs for Week 14:

• The Broncos should get Von Miller back, and they get to face a Bears’ offense that is without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte.
• The New York Jets have fallen quite a way from the must-start-against-anyone status of a couple years back, but I do like them this week against the Kansas City Palkos.

Sit Em D/ST: Dallas Cowboys (v NYG)

The Cowboys have been too up and down for my tastes this year. While Demarcus Ware is always around to get some sacks, and Eli Manning could always revert back to 3-INT Eli, I think this game will be a shootout, and frankly I don’t really want any part of either defense.

Dallas Cowboys D/ST fantasy football Week 14 projection: 24 or more points, two sacks, 1 turnover

Other sit em D/STs for Week 14:

• Detroit’s defense might seem inviting against the 2-10 Vikings, but remember that Suh is out, Peterson is back, and Ponder-to-Harvin has become one of the most dangerous duos in the NFL.
• The Miami Dolphins have been playing pretty good defense lately; yet, even with that, and the fact that I’m telling you to sit Michael Vick this week, the presence of LeSean McCoy and Andy Reid still scares me enough to say that I wouldn’t want the Dolphins’ D starting for me in a must-win situation. The Eagles’ may suck, but they do have explosive capabilities that could, well, explode at any minute.

And that’s it! Another successful start/sit column in the books. Now it’s on to your questions. Have at the comment section, and we’ll be back all week to answer.

Also, since several of you have asked how you can help support MSF for the time we take, quite joyfully, to help you with your fantasy teams each week, I’ll just suggest checking out Daily Joust. You’ve seen me discussing them a lot this season, and they really do have a fun package of weekly fantasy games for you to play, from college to pro. Shoot, Keith Mullett thinks it’s “the best alternative to fantasy sports and gambling ever.“

Click here or on the image below, and if you become a paying member at Daily Joust we’ll end up getting a cut of the money. No pressure, just a suggestion that I’d make regardless of our affiliate status with them, and one that would help us out if you obliged.

Note: I used ESPN’s Points Against tool as a reference while writing this post.

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1. Kansas City took down the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field with an unbelievably high scoring game of 10-3.
2. The Colts scored 24 points against the Patriots!! Of course, they still lost.
3. The Dallas Cowboys lost in overtime to the Arizona Cardinals because of a “field goal/timeout/missed field goal” mishap.
4. The Giants played their hearts out against the undefeated Green Bay Packers. Who would have thought that game was going to be such a nail biter? Certainly not me or I wouldn’t have made such a foolish bet.

Anyways…Let’s take a look at your Monday Night entertainment!

Last week the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8) decided to shake things up. Not only did they fire head coach Jack Del Rio, but owner Wayne Weaver announced the agreement to sell the team to businessman Shahid Khan.

Not to be left out, the San Diego Chargers (4-7) have not denied rumors of Norv Turner getting sacked at the end of the season.

Each team has had their struggles, but let’s find out who is most likely to fight through them!

The Chargers

The struggling Chargers have had their longest losing streak since the end of 2002 and beginning of 2003 seasons. San Diego sits at the bottom of the AFC West and are three games behind division rivals Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders.

Philip Rivers just isn’t the Philip Rivers we expected to see. His inconsistency and developing inaccuracy have hurt the Chargers at crucial moments in games. Rivers has 17 interceptions after throwing only 13 last season.

Despite Rivers’ inefficiency, the team is ranked 6th in the league for total number of yards on offense (386), and wide receiver Malcom Floyd (out with a hip injury since October 31st) returns to the field, which should benefit the Chargers’ offensive game.

The Chargers’ defense has not contributed a lot the past six games. They only have 19 sacks this season, which is tied with the Colts and Buccaneers for second worst in the NFL. They have also allowed 131.9 rushing yards per game, ranking them 26th in league. The key to locking down the Jaguars unstable offense will be shutting down running back Maurice Jones-Drew, who has been responsible for the minimal amount of success Jacksonville has had.

The Jaguars

The Jaguars have had a lot happen in a short week, and refocusing their attention is going to be difficult.

After Del Rio was let go, the Jaguars named Mel Tucker interim coach. Tucker wasted no time taking over and fired receivers coach Johnny Cox, reassigned quarterbacks coach Mike Sheppard, and waived starting receiver Jason Hill. Jacksonville has also put three more players on injured reserve, giving them a league-high of 20 guys out for the season.

That’s a big dose of change for one week.

Jacksonville’s offense is ranked 31st for points scored per game (12.5) and gain a league low 250 total yards per game. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert has struggled to lead this offense. Gabbert has a completion percentage of 48.5, and while he has half the number of interceptions Rivers does, he also only has 6 touchdowns to brag about. In Gabbert’s defense, he has one player he can rely on, Maurice Jones-Drew, who has rushed for 1040 yards and scored 5 touchdowns.

The Jaguars defense has held their own despite the disappointing season. They are ranked 4th in the league for overall defense, only allowing 292.5 yards per game and a total of 23 sacks this season. Outside linebacker Daryl Smith has had 80 combined tackles and 2.5 sacks to assist the team.

However, the defense has gone through a lot of players. Backup cornerback Will Middleton will join fellow teammates Rashean Mathis and Derek Cox on IR. Jacksonville signed cornerback David Jones to help fill in the gap. Defensive end Math Roth is out with a concussion and Aaron Kampman is suffering from a hamstring injury. All in all, this Jaguars defense sounds a little black and blue.

My Chargers-Jaguars Prediction

When I started this post, I literally had no idea who I would pick to win. I kinda was thinking they’d both find a way to lose…were that possible.

I’d say it’s about time for the Chargers to step out of their funk, but I don’t think that’s going to happen for three reasons:

1. Rivers is consistently throwing interceptions, and that’s it.
2. Someone pressed the reboot button for the Jacksonville Jaguars. There is a new feeling amongst the team that will jolt them into action.
3. Someone pressed the chaos button for the San Diego Chargers. Jump starting rumors of the future of the team in the middle of the regular season doesn’t seem like the best idea for “team” focus.

Final Score prediction:

Jacksonville Jaguars: 20  | San Diego Chargers: 17

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San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars

• Chargers-Jaguars Date: Monday December 5th
• Chargers-Jaguars Kickoff Time: 8:30 pm
• Chargers-Jaguars TV Network: ESPN
• Chargers-Jaguars Announcers: Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, and Ron Jaworski
• Chargers-Jaguars Point Spread: Chargers -3
• Chargers-Jaguars Over-Under: 39.5

In my opinion though, the hardest thing is staying in the present.

What do I mean?

Well, not only do you have to keep track of all of your players -  every rookie, waiver wire guy, and breakout performer on both your regular teams and weekly fantasy football teams – but you also have to be able to forget about the past and the future.

Who cares if Fred Jackson was bad last week…how will he do THIS week?

I know LeGarrette Blount’s prognosis for the rest of the year looks bleak…but can he give me one more week of solid production?

Most importantly, you have to remember that nobody can be perfect; and no matter how much you know, sometimes the athletes just have bad days.  (Yes, Jerod…I’m talking to you.  I will take my Tim Tebow, Fred Jackson, and Julio Jones predictions with me on my way to a big time network.)

[Editor's note: FINE! GO! I presciently told some people to sit Vincent Jackson and DeMarco Murray with very solid reasoning last week...you think I'm worried about losing YOU and your successful picks? HA!]

In all seriousness though, making predictions is quite hard…especially when you know it’s impossible to hit every pick out of the park.  Fortunately, I was on the money last week, nailing almost 75% of my picks.

Once again, I have to thank Verizon for helping me get there.

As you know, Verizon has hooked me up with a pretty sweet deal.  As part of our agreement, they have given me a Droid Bionic, equipped with NFL Mobile.  No matter where I am, I have instant access (on unbelievable 4G LTE speeds) to every fantasy player on my team.

Once again, I can’t talk about this enough.  Every time a new piece of technology comes out, we all ask ourselves the same question: “Is this REALLY going to be worth it?”  Sometimes, the new creation is called the iPad…and it revolutionizes everything.  Other times, it’s the iPad 2…where a company basically changed a device’s color, put a sticker, and made you waste $600.  When I heard about 4G speeds, I didn’t think twice about it.  I figured it was all a scam, and a waste of money.  Boy was I wrong.  Every time I watch my wife pull out her old-school Blackberry, and simply try to pull up google, I laugh at her.  Then, I get annoyed.  In a world full of impatient people, 4G speeds have made me a happier person.

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Let me just repeat that again to make sure you noticed:

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As always, we begin this week’s post with a quick recap of last week’s picks.  (And also, don’t forget: the Raiders and Chargers play this Thursday Night, so make sure you set your rosters now!)

Last Week’s Picks: 16 for 22 (73 %)

• Hits: Matt Ryan, Tim Tebow, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ben Roethlisberger, Michael Turner, Fred Jackson, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Steve Johnson, Nate Washington, NE Wide Receivers, Jake Ballard, and Scott Chandler
• Misses: LeGarrette Blount, Beanie Wells, Roy Helu, Plaxico Burress (by a half-yard), Dustin Keller, and Vernon Davis.

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 10: Quarterback

Start Em QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick (@ Dallas)

Is Dallas’ defense better this year?  Yes.

Has it regressed in recent weeks?  Yes.

Is their passing defense still below average?  Yes.

Is Fitzpatrick coming off of a rough week and ready to showcase his Harvard pedigree?  Who knows.  I think he is.  And I think that he’s a must-start this week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick fantasy football Week 10 projection: 290 yards, 3 TDs.

Other start ‘em QBs for Week Ten:

• Mark Sanchez – Not that he’s good…but New England’s pass defense is BAD.
• Philip Rivers – Very favorable matchup against a reeling Oakland defense.  Hey, you would be reeling too if your coach just traded TWO #1 draft picks for Carson Palmer.
• Tony Romo – He’s been pretty good at home this year, and Buffalo’s pass defense is atrocious.

Sit Em QB: Jay Cutler (v Detroit)

I actually REALLY like Jay Cutler.

I think he’s a really good quarterback, and he’s incredibly underrated for reasons that are completely unrelated to his actual play on the field.  Unfortunately for him, his offensive line has been, let’s just say…below average this year.  And in Week Ten, he will be matched up against the Detroit defensive line that is coming off a bye.

Yikes.

Jay Cutler fantasy football Week 10 projection: 240 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs.  8 sacks.

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Ten:

• Andy Dalton – He’s good…but Pittsburgh’s pass defense is better.
• Eli Manning – As I’m sure Jerod will note, San Francisco MIGHT have the best defense in the league…Eli might not be ELI-TE this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I like Ryan Fitzpatrick this week, but I don’t want to take him out for Valentine’s Day dinner, get down on one knee, and give him a ring…as you seem to want to do. Fitzpatrick has actually thrown 3 TD passes in a game twice this year, but both came in the first two weeks of the season. The league has caught up to Buffalo since them. Fitzpatrick is a solid start at QB, but hold off the Washburnian marriage proposals.

I’m fine with sitting Cutler against Detroit. The Lions’ D-Line is at least 5X better and tougher than the Eagles’, so I can see this game going much, much differently.

As for Eli struggling against the 49ers, yes I think it will be tough for him. Still, I think Eli is a borderline top-10 QB this week because the way to beat San Fran is through the air – you do not run on them – and frankly, Eli deserves as much respect as any non-Aaron Rodgers QB in the league this year. So sit him at your peril.

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 10: Running Back

Start Em RB: DeAngelo Williams (v Tennessee)

Coming off a bye, Williams will be fresher than he’s been all year.  He’s also playing a Tennessee defense that is ranked 23rd in the league against the run.  With an increased emphasis on stopping Cam Newton, I expect the Panthers to respond by pounding it out on the ground just like old times.

I actually like Jonathan Stewart this week as well, but I expect DeAngelo Williams to have a big game.

DeAngelo Williams fantasy football Week 10 projection: 140 total yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week Ten:

• All starters in the Kansas City/Denver game
• Michael Turner – Atlanta really likes to pound the ball on the ground against the Saints in order to try and control the clock.  Expect Turner to have a great game.

Sit Em RB: Jahvid Best (at Chicago)

He’s a little banged up, and he’s been slipping a lot lately.  The fact is, if not for a few lucky home run plays the last few games he played, Best has been a huge disappointment.  Plus, he only has 3 TOTAL TDs this season – even with Megatron’s unbelievable dominance and all.

I don’t trust Best against Chicago this week at all, even if he somehow plays.  Expect the Lions to throw it…a lot…and be successful.

Jahvid Best fantasy football Week 10 projection: 45 total yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week Ten:

• Knowshon Moreno – HE’S NOT GOOD!!!
• Patriots’ RBs – The Jets will make NE completely one-dimensional this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Loyal MSF fantasy readers, I cannot in good faith endorse DeAngelo Williams as a start in all but the most desperate of circumstances. Just know if you start him that DAW has had one – one – useful fantasy week all season (Week 5 v New Orleans…thanks to one big run). So trust Washburn at your own peril on this one.

As for Jahvid Best, well I can’t let this go without some lampooning, now can I? Jon, you realize you’re telling us all to sit a guy that is widely expected not to start anyway, right?

Best is dealing with yet another concussion, a problem he’s had since college. It’s sad, because he’s a talented player, but I don’t think he’ll ever be able to reach his potential because of injury.

Regardless, Best is a guy to consider dropping, not just sitting, so don’t give Washburn any bonus points next week if he correctly predicted a fantasy football invalid to be worthless.

And finally…sit Knowshon Moreno??? Really? Was that before or after Willis McGahee almost single-handedly spurred the Broncos to victory last week while Moreno had 8 total yards?

Come on Jon. You’re better than these picks; and I only feel comfortable honestly calling you out because I know our readers like you and respect you and will demand more from you.

Besides, honesty and candidness is the MSF way.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 10: Wide Receiver

Start Em WR: Steve Breaston (Denver)

He’s quietly having a solid season, and Denver’s pass defense is very mediocre.

Look for Champ Bailey to cover Dwayne Bowe all day, and look for Breaston to run wild in the process.  This isn’t to say that Bailey will shut down Bowe; actually, I’m trying to point out that a mildly washed up Champ Bailey is Denver’s BEST defensive back, which is good news for KC WRs.

Steve Breaston fantasy football Week 10 projection: 5 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Ten:

• Josh Cribbs – He is having a randomly solid season as well…and he should put up some nice numbers against St. Louis.
• Pierre Garcon – This week might be Indy’s best chance for a W all season.  Look for “the waiter” to have a solid day against Jacksonville.

Sit Em WR: Deion Branch (@ NY Jets)

At this point, if you are still starting New England wide eeceivers not named Wes Welker, you are DEFINITELY not staying current.  However, just in case, don’t start Deion Branch.

Darrelle Revis does NOT do a great job of defending the slot, so he will probably be matched up with Branch all day.  I shouldn’t have to say anything else.

Deion Branch fantasy football Week 10 projection: No catches

Jerod’s thoughts:

I guess we don’t get any other potential sit ‘em WRs this week? Geez Jon; I know you’re distraught about the NBA lockout, but there is no reason to take it out on our loyal fantasy football readers.

Here you go folks…here are a few normally startable WRs that you may want to think twice about:

• AJ Green and the Bengals finally face a good defense, the Steelers. Be wary. The last elite defense Cincy faced was when San Fran shut Green down to the tune of 4 catches for 29 yards.
• You know I like Brandon Lloyd for the balance of the season, but I could see him struggling a bit this week in a low-scoring affair against Cleveland in which Joe Haden will surely be draped all over him.
• Mike Williams has six catches in each of his last three games for Tampa Bay, but he’s averaging less than 10 yards per catch over his last four. Last year’s TD machine isn’t producing TDs, and while I continue to profess patience with him, I’d be okay with you placing the burden of proof on him.

As for Jon’s picks, I think Breaston is a solid option at WR this week, and Deion Branch is a weekly wild card; but with Tom Brady and New England’s offense struggling, I too would sit Branch against the Jets and Revis.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 10: Tight Ends

Start Em TE: Jake Ballard, New York Giants (@ San Francisco)

San Francisco’s defense is VERY good, especially at shutting down opposing running games. Ballard should get a lot of touches in Week Ten as Eli will probably have to throw but still be under pressure much more than he was this past week. Plus, he is gaining trust with Big Play Ballard by the week.

Jake Ballard fantasy football Week 10 projection: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week Ten:

• Brandon Pettigrew – Chicago has a rough time defending TEs.

Sit Em TE: Dallas Clark (Jacksonville)

May he Rest In Peace.

Dallas Clark fantasy football Week 10 projection: 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD

Jerod’s Thoughts:

Hmm…well since Dallas Clark reportedly has a “significant leg injury” I suppose that’s a pretty good Sit ‘Em pick, though I hope you won’t take credit for that as a “hit” next week.

As for Ballard, I continue to like him, so I endorse that start ‘em pick, and I think Brandon Pettigrew could have success against the Bears like Brent Celek did last week.

As for the potential misses in Week 10, I continue to look at Jermichael Finley with skepticism because he just isn’t that involved in the Packers’ offense. He wouldn’t be in my top 12 TEs for this week, and I think you’d be well within your right to place a “prove it” tag on him.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 10: Defenses

[Editor's note: the rest of this post is written by Jerod.]

Start Em Defense: Miami Dolphins (v Washington)

The Dolphins have played better than their record, and their defense showed a lot in last week’s drubbing of the Chiefs. Kansas City isn’t a great team this year, but they can be explosive on offense. The Dolphins wouldn’t let them. This week they face a John Beck-led offense that could do nothing more than dump off to the running back last week against San Francisco.

Miami Dolphins fantasy Football Week 10 projection: 14 or fewer points, 3 or more sacks, 1 or more turnovers

Other Start em D/ST units for Week 10:

• I know that Philly’s D has let you down this year, but against John Skelton and the Cardinals it could be very worthwhile to start them this week.
• The Detroit Lions get to face the porous Bears’ O-Line. Please tell me you aren’t fooled by the Eagles going sackless against them Monday night; the Bears O-Line remains not very good.

Sit Em Defense: Cincinnati Bengals (v Pittsburgh)

I just have a bad feeling that the Steelers are going to exact revenge on Cincy for Sunday night’s loss to Baltimore. I think a major part of it is that I don’t totally trust the Bengals’ D yet. They are good, but are they great?

Big Ben, Mike Wallace, and Antonio Brown can take full advantage of a good-but-not-great D, and I have a feeling that is what will happen here.

Cincinnati Bengals fantasy football Week 10 projection: 21 or more points, 2 sacks, 1 turnover

• Houston’s D has been great this year, but I just have a feeling they will underperform your expectations against a desperate Tampa Bay team in Tampa.
• Stay away from the Saints’ and Falcons’ defenses in Week 10. I would not be surprised if 70+ points are scored in that game.

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There are your start em, sit em picks for Week 10 of the fantasy football season. You know the drill from here. Read ‘em, digest ‘em, and then ask about ‘em. The comment section awaits your lineup-specific questions below.

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• Verizon technology and NFL Mobile give you a superior football experience in the palm of your hand – it’s almost as good as being there live.  But now, even without NFL Mobile, you can experience the next level and actually get yourself into the game – thanks to Verizon Wireless!
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Six team byes have been scaled back down to four this week, so fewer players will be sitting out of your matchups, but it will still likely necessitate at least one or two touch decisions; decisions you shouldn’t take lightly, because while this may be the middle of the season for the players, our playoffs are right around the corner and crunch time is upon us.

Before I get to this week’s stock picks, I invite anyone to comment on this question because the answer eludes me: will Joe Flacco ever become an elite quarterback in the NFL?

His polarizing play has people worried, especially me, so let me know in the comments section.

Now we will let you know what is good in this week’s stock report.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Stock Report: Stocks Up

Matt Cassel

Lol isn’t usually a term acceptable for sports blogging, but that is the only word someone can come up with when trying to describe the Dolphins’ pass defense.  Even losing Jamaal Charles for the season, Cassel’s production hasn’t skyrocketed nor plummeted, and he puts up good enough numbers to fill in for Stafford if you need him.

Philip Rivers

I promise that Rivers will have high stock until, well, who knows.  There is no way that he can continue to play this poorly for the rest of the year.  He threw for over 350 yards last week even though some unlucky interceptions came forth, but one of these days he is going to impress…hopefully.

Beanie Wells

The only thing that seems to be stopping Wells from becoming a top flight fantasy running back are his injuries.  During games that the Cardinals are competitive in, he can score you 14 to 20+ points.  The only problem with playing Wells is that the 1-6 Cardinals are out of games so fast that the running game gets put on the back burner and his abilities can get lost in the fold.

Michael Bush

This is somewhat of an obvious decision with the loss of Darren McFadden for the week, but Bush has always been a decent play.  His size allows him to be a goal line threat any time the Raiders are inside the red zone.  Playing against Tim Tebow should allow for many opportunities in Oakland.

Brandon Jacobs

Who knows why Tom Coughlin doesn’t give his 6-3 250 running back the ball more often, but this week should show some change with Ahmad Bradshaw out.  Jacobs has only carried the ball 10 times in a game once this year, but this is the week his production should benefit and score you around 10 points. He’s a solid fill-in for owners stuck without All Day or MJD this week.

Julio Jones

Has Julio lived up to the hype that was created when the Falcons threw the kitchen sink at the Browns to snag the rookie this past April?  The jury is still out on that one, but this could be the week that we see the young man have a breakout game against a Colts team that is so bad that almost nobody can watch.

Antonio Brown

The proof is in the pudding and this man has been performing week in and week out.  Keep things clear with simple logic this week: the Ravens probably won’t be able to go into Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers on the road, and if Baltimore is going to shut someone down, it seems like Mike Wallace would be that guy.

Kellen Winslow

That first touchdown of the year can be tricky for tight ends but K2 got the job done.  The Bucs are going to have to keep up with the Saints if they want any success this week so plenty of targets could go to the veteran tight end.

Cardinals D/ST

30 point games have been the norm for Arizona, but playing against the Rams could be the perfect remedy.  Don’t think that the Rams can repeat their surprising Week 8 performance this week, so play the Cardinals’ defense with confidence.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Stock Report: Stocks Down

Matt Schaub

This week will tilt in the favor of Arian Foster when going against the Browns weak front seven.  Superstar in the making Joe Haden blanketing Kevin Walter or Jacoby Jones (filling in for a still-sore Andre Johnson) won’t bode well for the passing game, so pedestrian numbers are most likely to come for Schaub.

Joe Flacco

As much as I love FLACCO, his stock has to be down.  Two subpar games against poor defenses makes this game against the Steelers look like the matchup from hell.  Although it doesn’t look as if he is going to throw 3 interceptions with a few fumbles again, this game still just has problems written all over it.

Matt Hasselbeck

Most of his games have been productive this year, but it looks as if he might have hit the permanent wall.  Depending on the state of the Titans after this game, whether they win or lose we could see the end of Hasselbeck’s starting career and the beginning of the Jake Locker era.  The Cincinnati Bengals defense doesn’t play around with opposing quarterbacks so this could get ugly.

LeGarrette Blount

Blount has a low stock this week strictly because of circumstance.  The New Orleans Saints blitz the scoreboard no matter who they play against, so if the Bucs want to win, keeping up is the only option.  Blount doesn’t contribute much in the way of the passing game so don’t be surprised when he posts pedestrian numbers.

Ray Rice

We all know about the Pittsburgh run defense, so this matchup looks fairly predictable.  Actually the whole Ravens offense looks like they are in trouble this week.  Now we may get proven wrong, but until this unit as a whole steps up, the guys on defense are going to be the ones who win this team the majority of its games.

Brandon Marshall

Miami is hard to watch.  Regardless of the fact that Marshall is the best player on the field, he can’t like where this team is going.  Too many losses late can put a team’s focus in the dumps, and as history has shown, when Brandon Marshall doesn’t like the situation chances are he is going to do what it takes to get out of it.

Jordy Nelson

Aside from the big game every other week, Nelson just doesn’t seem to get enough looks on the offense.  2 catches for 104 yards and a touchdown is a productive week yes, but what happens when those 2 catches equal out to just 30 yards?  It’s big risk, big reward for Jordy owners, and this week’s matchup with the Chargers doesn’t grade out well.

San Diego D/ST

This is pretty much a no brainer here.  Look at the obvious reasons.  Aaron Rodgers is on the other side of the field and Phillip Rivers has had many recent struggles that give the opposing team a lot of opportunities to score. Play someone else.

As if Marty Schottenheimer showing up in the Kansas City owner’s box – in a Chiefs blazer that Hank Stram would had been proud of – wasn’t enough of a knife twisted in the backside, Philip Rivers’ Joe Pisarcik impersonation at the regulation could end up ultimately spelling doom for San Diego’s season.

Incidentally, Marty finally got his ring leading a team to a championship a couple weeks back.

Now with a season trending, or even spiraling downward, the Chargers face two crucial home games in a five day period. Unfortunately the only local excitement in recent days has been ticket holders turning a profit on Craigslist.

At least solace can be taken that the Green Bay version of ‘Occupy San Diego’ will at least be somewhat more tolerable than when Raider Nation descends the following Thursday night.

So what exactly has gone wrong in Charger-land over the first half of the season? (Well, besides the usual Norv Turner…) There is an entire laundry list of items…

Philip Rivers

Listening to various fantasy football shows and regular sportstalk radio, the headline question is the same: how has Rivers’ production fallen so drastically?

Two years ago I was comparing Rivers with Sunday opponent Aaron Rodgers, discussing their similar talent level. In fact, during that ’09 season Rivers actually had a slightly higher QB rating (104.4 to 103.2) than Rodgers, and in the period covering ’09 and ’10, Rivers threw 58 TD’s against only 22 INT’s.

But Rodgers and Rivers have now taken different paths.

Rodgers (ridiculous 125.7 rating) has promoted himself into a league of his own while Rivers (80.7) along with Tony Romo, have fallen into the ‘relegation zone’ of elite QB’s, soon to be replaced by Matthew Stafford and Cam Newton.

Everyone is chiming in on the issue, including LaDainian Tomlinson this week who suggested that Rivers might be having ‘distractions’. The stats do not lie about 11 INT’s in seven games, and there is speculation on possible upper-body (and/or finger) injuries, although Rivers has not been appearing on recent injury reports.

Running Game

Green Bay is an example of a team that can survive quite nicely without a stellar run game. The Packers ‘run game’ in essence is often Rodgers dump-offs to the backs or a short pattern to a receiver, or just Rodgers taking off himself.

The Chargers do not have such a luxury, and have now been waiting a season and a half for Ryan Matthews to develop into a LaDainian Tomlinson-like role, only to be frustrated by Matthews’ inability to stay healthy. Mike Tolbert has been the fallback for the heavy lifting, but he has been slowed by a hamstring. Unhearlded Curtis Brinkley (10 carries, 43 yards, TD) bad a breakthrough game in KC but suffered a concussion late in that contest.

Tolbert looks to be on target to return to the lineup this week, while Matthews looks somewhere between questionable and doubtful. Obviously the Chargers need at least one of the three backs to be ready or they may have to resort to getting Jacob Hester actual carries. Hester was actually decent his senior season at LSU, but college results don’t always translate into the next level (see a certain QB in Denver).

Receivers

At age 31, a variety of injuries have dropped Antonio Gates from the elite tier of NFL tight ends, a position that the San Diego organization must address in the 2012 NFL Draft. Although he still draws double-teams, Gates simply no longer creates the separation of years past. Vincent Jackson is billed as a top receiver, but he only has ten catches in his last four games. Malcolm Floyd is spotty, but is coming off his best outing (five catches/107 yards) of the season.

So it’s those three against Jennings/James Jones/Jordy Nelson/Donald Driver/Randall Cobb/Jermichael Finley on the Green Bay side. The Packers are on all cylinders compared to the Chargers sputtering attack.

O-Line

Think Tamba Hali got into Marcus McNeill’s head? McNeill ended up committing four false starts and six penalties overall while allowing one sack, a totally unacceptable performance.

The Chargers front line is also suffering from the loss of Pro-Bowler Kris Dielman (who does know one way of stopping Hali), who was last seen on the field trying to wobble around with a concussion in the Bolts’ loss to the New York Jets two weeks ago; he then later suffered a seizure on the team’s flight back home.

Both the Chargers medical staff and the NFL have taken heat in the aftermath, with the blame deserving on both fronts. Dielman was seen clearly staggering (now shown ad nauseum on ESPN) with officials watching. In boxing when a referee sees a participant in that kind of shape the fight gets stopped. But there also appeared to be a failure of the team’s medical staff in not following up and monitoring Dielman’s condition before the six hour flight home. The news surrounding the incident has been a distraction in a situation that could had easily turned tragic.

The Packers have also had to do some O-line shuffling this year, where the main job description is to keep Aaron Rodgers upright. Rodgers has only been sacked 16 times on the year, but the team can’t afford much more attrition up front considering two meetings with Ndamukong Suh and the Detroit Lions upcoming.

Defense

Think the secondary ain’t an issue with the Bolts?

First Antoine Cason gets benched after allowing three touchdowns to the thought-to-be washed up Plaxico Burress. Marcus Gilchrist didn’t fare much better in getting abused by the likes of Matt Cassel to Jonathan Baldwin.

The thought of the numbers Rodgers and his full arsenal might put up against the Chargers secondary are mind-numbing. Rodgers will have to be leery of going deep too often though with free safety Eric Weddle (five INT’s) lurking. He has been the Bolts defensive MVP.

The Chargers front-seven is another mess however, and the organization spent the week finding whatever goods they could find on the open free-agent market.

As for the Pack, Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson continue to do their things, though the loss of Nick Collins has allowed the opposition some passing yards, which is of some concern.

Coaching

Norv v. Mike McCarthy, can you say mismatch??

Packers-Chargers Prediction

One veteran writer in the 6-1-9 is already on record as saying ‘there isn’t an opportunity, there isn’t a chance‘, and summed up the Kansas City game by saying ‘lousy game, lousy outcome, lousy team, and lousy night’, then suggested that it might be a good ideal for the Chargers to forfeit the game to the Packers.

What will keep the Chargers in the hunt, and with the chance to right things with their usual December run, is the good fortune of being in a division with three other equally dysfunctional operations. The Raiders just burned first and second round draft picks for Carson Palmer (might as well been whatever was behind Door #3), while the Denver organization is torn with the thousand-pound Tim Tebow elephant in the room and the impending PR nightmare if the team ultimately decides to part ways. The Chiefs might actually be the least flawed of the AFC West teams, but at last check was still being coached by Todd Haley.

Meanwhile Wisconsin writers have mused about the possibility of the Pack getting through the regular season unscathed since the team was a mere 3-0. Green Bay has now won 13 straight dating back to last year and have not gone this far into a season with an unblemished record since 1962, when GB’s lone loss was an infamous ass-kicking at the hands of Detroit on Thanksgiving.

Green Bay will likely fall short in one game before the playoffs, but it won’t be this week. Much more formidable hurdles will remain in the second half such as Tampa, the Giants on the road, the two Lions games, or maybe even Christian Ponder and the suddenly much more respectable Vikings next Monday night.

But until then, look for the Pack’s stay in San Diego to be a breeze:

Packers 48 | Chargers 21

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Green Bay Packers at San Diego Chargers Game Info

• Packers-Chargers Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 6th at 4:15 ET on FOX
• Packers-Chargers Announcers: Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick
• Packers-Chargers Point Spread: Packers -5.5
• Packers-Chargers Over-Under Odds: 50.5

They are the stars of our latest photo story: “Bust Buddies”.

Note for my dad and others: if you are not up on your Internet memes, here is the definition of fffffuuuuuuu.

Update: If you enjoyed this photo story, you’ll probably enjoy the one posted next. It’s called “Sucks for Luck” and tackles the incessant Andrew Luck hype and the increasing probability of a very tough decision looming in Indianapolis.

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Rivers, coming off of three straight outstanding fantasy seasons (at least 4,000 yards and 28 TDs in each one), is mired in a slump of epic proportions that was appropriately punctuated on Monday night when he let a road win over Kansas City literally slip right through his fingers.

Johnson’s awful play has perhaps been even more egregious considering his contentious holdout before the season started. He eventually got his money, but the Titans haven’t gotten anything close to what they paid for. The Panthers undoubtedly feel the same regarding their own recently paid and underperforming running back, DeAngelo Williams. (Meanwhile, Matt Forte continues to be ground into a pulp at the bargain price of $555K.)

As you can see, this entire situation was so easy to lampoon that it only took me 13 frames.

All joking aside, I know many of you fantasy owners have questions about what you should do with Rivers, Johnson, and DAW. I’ll try to get a post up tonight or tomorrow with a few extended thoughts on the matter, including what to expect from these 2011 turds moving forward, but in a nutshell you just have to hang tight. You can’t play them, but you can’t drop them, but you probably can’t trade them either. You just have to wait it out and hope they start to put up something close to their track record.

I know. It sucks. Such is life in fantasy football. There are always highly drafted, highly paid players who tank. This season it’s these guys. Bastards!

First, thank you to everyone who understood my main point: that it’s simply too early to say whether or not Timmy will be good or bad yet.  In no way was I trying to say that Tebow will be better than Elway, Marino, and Manning; my point was how do we REALLY know after only five starts?

Second, while Tebow’s struggles have been magnified because Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, and Christian Ponder have looked so good thus far as rookies.   I think we can all agree that all three of those guys have MUCH better weapons around them than anything the Broncos have this season.

• Cam Newton has FOUR offensive weapons that are better than anyone on the Broncos: Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Greg Olsen.
• Andy Dalton has three: AJ Green, Cedric Benson, and a fantastic defense (seriously…Dalton threw for 160 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs this week…and his team won by TWENTY-TWO!!!! The only way Tebow and the Broncos are doing that anytime soon is if they play Vanderbilt).
• As for the Vikings, Christian Ponder has the best non-QB offensive player in the game on his team (Adrian Peterson) as well as a receiver (Percy Harvin) who is better than anyone in Denver now that Brandon Lloyd is gone.

Once you factor in the defenses (Denver’s is second to last in the league when it comes to scoring defense and worse than Cincinnati, Carolina, and Minnesota in every single category), it shouldn’t surprise anybody that both Tebow and Orton have struggled in 2011 so far with the Broncos.

I guess what’s so troubling to me is the unforgiving stance everyone is taking with Tebow.  Look at the following two stat lines and tell me which QB you would rather have.

• QB #1 – 57 of 118 for 891 yards.  48% completion. 7.55  yards per attempt. 7 TDs, 3 INTs.
• QB #2 – 64 for 137 for 638 yards.  47% completion. 4.65 yards per attempt. 4 TDs, 2 INTs.

Though neither QB is all that desirable, anyone in his or her right mind would take QB #1, who has thrown for more yards, a slightly higher completion rate, and scored more TDs as well.  This is all before taking into account the fact that QB #1 outrushed QB #2 by a margin of 302 to 43 in those games as well.

In this example I’m comparing Tim Tebow to Blaine Gabbert – a guy who was drafted higher than Tebow and who has, so far, gotten through the media scope almost completely unscathed.  In fact, articles have been written explaining why he deserves a free pass for his entire first year.

Once again, I don’t necessarily think Tebow WILL make it as an NFL QB…but shouldn’t we at least make him earn our judgments either way?  Let’s extend to him the same long rookie leash that we give everybody else.

Onto this week’s start em, sit em picks!

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Advice for Week 9

Last Week’s Picks: 21 for 35 (60 %)

Note: last week’s top-line picks were made by Jerod

• Hits: Eli Manning, Cam Newton, Matt Hasselbeck, Tim Tebow, Philip Rivers, Darren Sproles, Peyton Hillis, Montario Hardesty, Knowshon Moreno, DeAngelo Williams, DeMarco Murray, Brandon Lloyd, Antonio Brown, Michael Crabtree, Steve Breaston, Eric Decker, Demariyus Thomas, Reggie Wayne, Brent Celek, Fred Davis, Owen Daniels
• Misses: Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chris Johnson, Mark Ingram, Ryan Torain, Bernard Scott, Sidney Rice, Deion Branch, Jake Ballard, Vernon Davis, Dallas Clark, Heath Miller, Scott Chandler.

As a quick reminder, the following teams have a bye during week 9:

• Detroit
• Minnesota
• Carolina
• Jacksonville

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Quarterbacks

Start Em QB: Matt Ryan, Atlanta (v Indianapolis)

Ryan is currently ranked as the 14th overall fantasy QB, meaning in most leagues he should be a backup.  Fortunately for Matty Ice owners, the Falcons are traveling to Indy this week, where they will face one of the worst pass defenses in history.

Start Matt Ryan with no regrets in week 9.

Matt Ryan fantasy football Week 9 projection: 275 yards passing, 2 TDs

Less Obvious Start Em QB: Tim Tebow, Denver (v Oakland)

Don’t laugh.

The Raiders have the 24th ranked pass defense in the league this year and have gotten into several shootouts with teams already.  I understand the lack of weapons in the Denver passing game may scare you, but Tebow performed pretty well against Oakland last year (150 passing yards, 80 rushing yards, and 2 TDs).

If you have a top 8 QB, you shouldn’t be starting Tebow, but if Matt Stafford or Cam Newton is your starter and thus is on a bye, don’t sweat starting Timmy in week 9.

Tim Tebow fantasy football Week 9 projection: 140 yards passing, 60 yards rushing, 2 total TDs (and probably two total turnovers also)

Other start ‘em QBs for Week Nine:

• Tony Romo – This week, the Romo Coaster goes back up against the Seattle Seahawks…before throwing his fans and owners off a cliff in week ten against the Bills.
• Philip Rivers – The Chargers will probably be playing from behind, and the Packers’ secondary has been very average so far.

Sit Em QB: Joe Flacco, Baltimore (v Pittsburgh)

Don’t be fooled into thinking that since he lit up the Steelers in week one, he will do it again.  He won’t.

I said it a few weeks ago, but I’ll say it again. If you didn’t think Dick LeBeau was a genius before this year, just consider that for over a decade the Steelers have been impossible to run against yet in 2012, as soon as the NFL became a full-fledged passing league, he transformed the Steelers’ defense into the league’s #1 ranked passing defense, allowing opponents a paltry 5.1 yards per attempt.  Unbelievable.

Stay away from Flacco this week.

Joe Flacco fantasy football Week 9 projection: 175 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Nine:

• Ryan Fitzpatrick – Playing the Jets who are coming off a bye…yikes.
• Ben Roethlisberger – I think this week’s Steelers/Ravens game will be a true throwback affair.

Jerod’s thoughts

I love the Ryan pick, and I think he is a guy who owners need to keep an eye on as we move into the second half of the season. He hasn’t been a great fantasy quarterback so far this year, but with a lot of dome games and some favorable matchups coming up, he could be a top-10 QB from here on out, which is all that matters.

As for Tebow, he certainly has more potential value this week than he did last week against the Suh and the Lions, but I think there is a lot of risk there. I want to see him play a decent game from start to finish before I trust my one QB slot to him. What if he’s awful and gets pulled at halftime? Without the backing of his own coaching staff, and how poor he’s looked, I can’t justify starting him unless I’m desperate.

And yes, sit Flacco. He couldn’t get a pass in the end zone last week versus Arizona, and now has zero TD passes in three of his last four games (and in the other game he had just one).

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Running Backs

Start Em RB: Beanie Wells, Arizona (v St. Louis)

While I don’t necessarily love Beanie Wells’ prospects for the rest of the season due to his lingering injury issues, I really like him this week against the Rams.  St. Louis has proven to be vulnerable on the ground this season, and Beanie is coming off of a fantastic game against a very good defense in Baltimore.

Despite his lingering knee issues, look for Beanie to have one or two more good efforts before he tails off to end the year.

Beanie Wells fantasy football Week 9 projection: 95 yards rushing, 2 TDs

Other start ‘em RBs for Week Nine:

• Michael Turner – Against the Colts…okay this one is too obvious, so let’s just ignore it and move on.
• LeGarrette Blount – At this point, it’s still a little early to completely trust Blount, but I really like the Bucs’ running game this week against a suddenly reeling Saints team.  New Orleans just got lit up on the ground against St. Louis, and the Bucs will be looking to keep Dreww Brees off the field as much as possible.  Give Blount your complete trust this week.

Sit Em RB: Fred Jackson, Buffalo (v New York Jets)

I actually like Fred Jackson, who has yet to have a really bad day, a lot for the rest of the season.  However, now is as good a time as ever for that first clunker of 2011 with the Jets coming to town fresh off a bye.

Rex Ryan’s team hasn’t been as consistently good against the run this year as in years’ past, but it was a point of emphasis for their defense all week.  Look for Jackson and the entire Bills offense to have a tough time on Sunday.

Fred Jackson fantasy football Week 9 projection: 40 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week Nine:

• Redskins’ Running Backs – I think Ryan Torain and Roy Helu can be good backs, but I also think that with John Beck starting the 49ers defense, which is already good against the run, will be able to send an 8th man into the box. This is not good news for the Redskins in real life or fantasy.
• Ryan Mathews – Just trust me that when the Chargers are down 21-0 with 12 minutes left in the second quarter, or Mathews is dinged up again, you will wish you had left him on the bench.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Beanie Wells is a very inviting start this weekend, and I would not be surprised to see him finish as a top 5 overall player this week. Except that I would…because I also wouldn’t be surprised to see him scratched from the starting lineup at the last second or removed midway through the game because of an injury. Such is life with Beanie Wells. This is a week to definitely have him in your lineup, but just remember to take nothing for granted on Sunday morning.

And while I agree with your basic premise that Fred Jackson could struggle this week, he’s not sitting on any of my rosters. The Jets have not been their previously dominant selves against the run, and Jackson has earned every-week start status for his ability to run and be a receiver out of the backfield. How many true lead backs are there anymore in the NFL? FJax is one. You better have two or three elite 2011 options if you’re even thinking about sitting him.

And I agree on Blount. A great option for this week, and a solid buy low candidate if you’re looking to make a trade.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Wide Receivers

Start Em WR: Julio Jones, Atlanta (v Indianapolis)

At this point, you all know how I feel about Julio Jones.  I think he’s overrated.  I think AJ Green is 4x better than him.  I think Jones drops a lot of balls, and I think he’s a poor route-runner.

And that’s all well and good, but he’s still super-duper talented athletically…and he’s playing the Colts this week.  I expect at least two home run plays from him in yet another Colts blowout loss.

Julio Jones fantasy football Week 9 projection: 125 yards receiving, 2 TDs

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Nine: 

• Plaxico Burress – He’s already a great target in the end zone, and I have a sneaky suspicion that he and the Sanchize got even MORE acquainted over their bye week.  Even if they didn’t, they are still playing the porous Buffalo passing defense.  Good day for Plaxico.
• Antonio Brown – Ed Reed will be shading towards Mike Wallace all game, and while that won’t completely shut down the speedster, I think that Antonio Brown will rise to the occasion like he did last week and catch a lot of balls underneath, as well as pick up another TD or two.

Sit Em WR: Stevie Johnson, Buffalo (v New York Jets)

Revis Island.  Off a bye week.  Oh boy.

Stevie Johnson fantasy football Week 9 projection: 45 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week Nine:

• Nate Washington – Cincinnati has been surprisingly great against the pass, ranking fifth overall in passing defense.  Look for Washington to be bottled up, especially since the Titans lack a really reliable #2 option now that Chris Johnson has passed away.
• Patriots’ Wide Receivers not named Wes Welker – Uh oh…the Steelers just showed us that the Pats have absolutely no deep threat.  Needless to say, it’s not Welker’s, Hernandez’s, or Gronkowski’s fault.

Jerod’s thoughts:

At this point in the presentation, I can deduce two things: you think Atlanta is going to roughshod over Indianapolis (safe prediction) and you trust Rex Ryan and the Jets’ D to shut down a Buffalo offense that has been pretty good this year (a riskier but not outrageous bet). With that said, I agree with you on sitting Stevie Johnson, assuming someone has strong depth at WR. Stevie is not devoid of value, because he has a nose for the end zone, but Darrelle Revis has certainly locked down better receivers.

I also like Julio Jones this week. I don’t love him, because I think the Falcons have moved away from trying to force-feed him the ball. His targets will now come more in the flow of the offense, and if the Colts jump out to a big lead over Indy – a likely occurrence with Atlanta’s ability to run the ball – then they won’t need to take as many shots down the field. I think it’s a good matchup for Jones, but without the upside you seem to think.

One guy not mentioned that people need to keep their eye on is Michael Crabtree. He is healthy, and having Braylon Edwards opposite him will “take the top off the defense” as they say. Alex Smith looks at Crabtree first in the passing game. In PPR leagues especially, he will be golden for the rest of the year.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Tight Ends

Start Em TE: Jake Ballard, New York Giants (v New England)

After seeing Heath Miller step out of the time machine and look like a young Tony Gonzalez on Sunday, I’m willing to say that the Patriots have a VERY difficult time stopping opposing tight ends.  I fully expect Eli Manning to take note of that, and use Jake Ballard a lot, especially early on in Week 9.

Jake Ballard fantasy football Week 9 projection: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Nine:

• Dustin Keller – He’s having a solid year so far, and Sanchez loves him nearly as much as Plax in the red zone.
• Vernon Davis – He will have a nice bounce back week against a Washington defense that is actually pretty good.  Look for Alex Smith to check down quite a bit to the big tight end.

Sit Em TE: Scott Chandler, Buffalo (v New York Jets)

There’s no way he scores any more TDs this week against the Jets.

Scott Chandler fantasy football Week 9 projection: 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD

Jerod’s thoughts:

I’m now officially beginning to wonder if Rex Ryan wrote this article. You chose a Bill as your sit em RB, WR, and TE, and you mentioned the Bearded Wonder in your “other” section under the QBs. Jon, bro, we get it: you think the Jets’ defense is going to have a strong effort coming off the bye.

I love Ballard. Eli Manning always seems to turn his tight end into a fantasy relevant commodity as the season goes along. Same thing is happening here.

As for Chandler, he made me eat my disparaging words last week, but I agree with you that starting him would make me very nervous this week. He has value, because he’s always a TD threat, but it’s all or nothing with him. Just know that when you start him (and know that none of us can predict with any certainty when he will or will not find openings in the end zone).

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: D/ST

[Editor's Note: because we would not allow Jon to pick the Jets’ defense as his “start ‘em” defense/special teams unit, he decided to boycott this last section of the post. What a baby. So these picks are made by Jerod.]

Start ‘em D/ST: Oakland Raiders (v Denver)

Every year I try to target specific offenses that are so inept as to make even mediocre defenses valuable for one week. The Broncos made the Dolphins’ rag-tag defense very valuable two weeks ago, and an already strong fantasy defense in Detroit become out-of-this-world valuable last week.

This week, the Broncos and struggling QB Tim Tebow face Oakland. The Raiders are physical up front, which is the same formula the Lions used to pressure Tebow last week. Until the young QB proves he can avoid sacks and fumbles, I’m starting any D going up against the Broncos.

Also working in your favor if you nab the Raiders: Jacoby Ford. He’s a weekly threat to get you a bonus TD.

Oakland D/ST fantasy football Week 9 projection: 17 or fewer points allowed, 4+ sacks, 2+ turnovers, 1 TD

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week Nine:

• I like both the Pittsburgh and Baltimore defenses this week. I agree with Jon that this game will be an old school battle. (If by some chance you have to pick one or the other, go with Pittsburgh. Joe Flacco is playing far worse than Big Ben right now).
• I’d want to stay away from Washington offensive players this week against San Francisco, but the Washington defense isn’t a bad option. The 49ers have to travel cross-country and play an early game, which is rarely a good recipe for success for West Coast teams. And with San Fran already being more of a running team than an explosive passing team, it limits their potential to put up big scoring numbers, especially against a solid D like Washington’s.

Sit ‘em D/ST: Seattle Seahawks (v Dallas Cowboys)

I don’t know how many people have been employing the Seahawks D, but there was a groundswell of support for them a few weeks back because they are decent against the run. While that remains true, and the Seahawks have some decent matchups moving forward, I don’t like their chances against an angry, embarrassed Cowboys team that gets to lick its wounds at home this week.

The Cowboys’ offense isn’t nearly as good as everyone thought it would be coming into the season, but it’s much better than it showed last week. The poor Seahawks will feel the brunt of it this weekend.

Seattle D/ST fantasy football Week 9 projection: 27+ points, 2 or fewer sacks, 1 turnover

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week Nine:

• I wouldn’t want either the Giants or Patriots defenses going this week. That game just smells like one that gets into the 30s on both sides.
• The Jets’ D is not as obvious a start candidate as Jon would have you think it is, and I do not say this just to needle Jon. While I like the Jets’ D is general, they simply have not been a dominant unit this year, and the Bills have been a pretty consistent offense. I would not at all be surprised to see this game played in the 20s, which means the Jets would need a defensive TD or a bunch of sacks/turnovers to turn in a great day. It’s possible, but I don’t consider it likely.

 ###

Best of luck to everyone in Week 9.

Make sure you also take a look at Andy’s waiver wire wire pickups for Week 9, and then load up the comment queue with questions. We’ll be around all week to answer them, and of course we’ll be here on Sunday morning to help out with those difficult last minute start/sit questions.

Here is animated GIF of Rivers’ mumble. Let’s watch it and then see if we can use our lip reading and context clue skills to figure out what he said.

GIF source: Mocksession via Reddit

My first thought was that Rivers is a Modern Family fan and was having flashbacks to the “Moon Landing” episode in which Ed O’Neill’s Jay would have undoubtedly agreed that Cameron was the “worst gay ever” for allowing this to happen in the men’s locker room.

GIF source: Tumblr

But why would Rivers be thinking about Modern Family during the 4th quarter of a pivotal division game? Surely he wouldn’t be, so this probably is not a reasonable explanation.

Hmm, but maybe he was thinking about TV. Everyone’s favorite pop star Justin Bieber was the guest on The Tonight Show. Perhaps a teammate asked Rivers about his late night viewing plans and Rivers was letting said teammate know that he wouldn’t be watching the “worst Jay ever.”

GIF source: eborg3.com

Unlikely.

Maybe Rivers thinks that Yankees’ announcer Michael Kay is the “worst Kay ever”?

YOU SHOULDA BEEN GONE...Knowing how I...made you feel...AND I SHOULDA BEEN GONE...After all your...words of steel...

Okay, that’s definitely not it.

I feel like I’m getting further and further from the actual explanation. I’m focusing too much on the lip reading as opposed to context clues.

Hmm…perhaps something happened in the game that would have made Rivers say “worst play ever”?

GIF source: Mocksession via Reddit

Wait…this happened with under two minutes to play?

And the Chargers were already in field goal range?

And the Chiefs had no more timeouts?

So the Chargers and Phil Rivers were literally just preparing to center the ball for their kicker to boot a relatively easy field goal to get a tough road win and move to 5-2 and maintain sole possession of first place?

And instead Rivers fumbled, the Chiefs won in overtime, and now there is a three-way clustermuck at the top of the AFC West?

Ah, it all makes sense now.

“Worst day ever.”

Yes Philip, yes it was.

This is a question I’ve been thinking about a lot over the past several weeks, as I continue to be more and more impressed (and surprised) by how well Cam Newton is transitioning to the NFL in his first season.

Cam Newton’s Impressive Start

Frankly, I did not think that Newton was going to become a good NFL quarterback. I certainly did not think it would happen this quickly. But this is why I blog about the NFL in my underpants while typing with Cheetos-stained fingers and other people get paid to scout and draft players*.

* – Of course, plenty of people who do not blog about the NFL in their underpants with Cheetos-stained fingers, and who get paid to scout players, agreed with my assessment about Newton. This just goes to show how inexact a science scouting quarterbacks can be. Except for this guy.

As good as he’s been,nobody is ready to put Cam Newton into Canton yet. It takes more than 8 statistically strong games to classify someone as an elite QB, especially when six of those games have resulted in losses.

In fact, we’re going to learn a lot about Newton over these final 8 weeks while the Panthers essentially “play out the string” and Newton is forced to endure the first losing season of his football career. Leading your team in spite of adversity is one of the most important attributes for a successful NFL QB. We’ll see if Newton has that ability. So far he’s given us no reason to doubt him.

Certainly there is no reason to doubt Newton’s physical skills. He is passing for nearly 300 yards per game (299.1), completing 60.6% of his passes, and has thrown 11 touchdown passes against 9 interceptions. Those are solid numbers for any quarterback, let alone a rookie, and they are made even more impressive when his superlative running stats added to the discussion: 5.1 yards per carry and 7 rushing touchdowns.

And the numbers don’t tell the whole story.

Whereas Tim Tebow’s numbers are not nearly as poor as you might think, and in fact compare favorably to several Hall of Famers’ stats through five starts, Tebow hasn’t looked at all like an NFL QB. Cam Newton, on the other hand, has. He’s played with poise throughout games, including late, and he’s shown that he can make all the throws. He also has shown the ability to hit guys for big plays down the field when they are a open, which is an absolute requisite skill for a quarterback in the NFL. When a QB has a chance to make a big play, it must be made more often than not; simple as that.

Newton has been far from perfect, and he has plenty of growing to do, but I don’t think anyone is anything but highly impressed with his first eight games as an NFL quarterback. Many may not have been as low on Newton as I was before the season, but I doubt anyone other than Cam himself expected this kind of success out of the gate.

And all of this leads me back to my original question: how many NFL teams would trade their QB right now for Cam Newton?

Hypothetically Speaking…

For our purposes, assume that everything is how it is (team records, contracts, rosters, coaches, etc) and that every NFL team is given the option of swapping its current QB right now for Newton. I admit that is 100% ridiculous because Carolina wouldn’t trade Cam Newton for anyone (except maybe Aaron Rodgers…), but humor me for the sake of discussion. The result of this hypothetical transaction would be Newton quarterbacking the team for the rest of this season, in place of their current QB, and then being their QB through the rest of his rookie contract.

There are a number of easy answers on both sides, teams that wouldn’t even think twice about saying yes or no:

• Automatic No: New England, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, New Orleans, New York Giants
• Automatic Yes: Miami, Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver, Washington, Seattle

I shouldn’t have to defend any of the automatic “no” choices. Each team has a Super Bowl-winning QB, and each team feels it is a contender this season. As tantalized as they may be by Newton, none of these teams would trade their guy for him. (And anyone who doesn’t think Eli deserves this kind of respect is, in my opinion, crazy.)

As for the automatic yeses, I can maybe-possibly see some saying that Tennessee and Jacksonville have “QBs of the future” in Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert, but both teams would have rather had Newton in the draft and surely would rather have him now. These and the others are absolute no-brainers to me.

Now let’s go one-by-one through the remaining teams and figure out a) if they would trade their current QB for Cam Newton, and b) if they should trade their current QB for Cam Newton, because I bet the answers won’t often be the same. Of course these are all just my opinions based on how I see each team’s situation.

As always, I encourage disagreement, discussion, and even constructive criticism. That’s what comment sections are for. And there is a poll at the end of this post so we can crowdsource some kind of consensus for the non-obvious teams.

Here goes…

Buffalo Bills – Ryan Fitzpatrick (current record: 5-2)

The Bills just locked Fitzpatrick up to a long-term contract that will pay him $24 million and keep him as the signal caller in Buffalo for at least the next 2-3 years. Considering the deal Arizona signed Kevin Kolb to in the offseason, Fitzpatrick certainly deserves this contract. He has passed for 1,739 yards this year and twice as many touchdowns as interceptions, and he’s led Buffalo to first place in the AFC East. There is perhaps concern that Fitzpatrick is playing over his head, as his current completion rate is 8 points higher than his career average, and his QB rating is 20 points higher than his career average, but Fitzpatrick also could just be showing the normal progression that a good young NFL quarterback will make.

Personally, I’m not sold on Fitzpatrick as a top-tier option for the future who can compete against the likes of Brady, Roethlisberger, and Peyton Manning If He Plays Again (his new name). Fitzpatrick is a solid guy who can transition you from one franchise QB to the next, but I don’t think he is the type of QB who will make you a winner year in, year out. Cam Newton may be. But with the Bills sitting in first place in the AFC East, and the good feelings of the contract still fresh, I don’t think they’d make the move even though I would.

• Would they? No
• Should they? Yes

New York Jets – Mark Sanchez (4-3)

This is one of the more intriguing ones.

Even though Mark Sanchez has really done nothing to show that he can or will become a top-tier NFL quarterback (54.7% completions, 41 TD:39 INT for career), he has ridden the coattails of a great defense and an above-average running game to two straight AFC title games. His coach continues to profess confidence in him, and I think would rather win with “his guy” Sanchez, or die trying, than admit he was wrong and bring in another QB…at least right now.

Simply put: I think most objective people would make this trade in a heartbeat, and maybe the Jets front office would force it to happen; but I think Rex Ryan is so dug in with Sanchez that he’d do everything to veto it and give Sanchez another chance to finish the job this year. (I’ll be curious to hear from Jets fans on this one…)

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes

Cincinnati Bengals – Andy Dalton (5-2)

Here is another one where short-term success might lead to myopic thinking.

The Bengals are, shockingly, sitting at 5-2 with their red-haired rookie QB and glue-handed rookie WR leading the offense. The Bengals’ defense has been great so far this season, but Dalton has been far from just a caretaker. He’s thrown 9 TDs and is completing 62.4% of his passes. Dalton’s sprint out of the gate has been nothing short of shocking.

But here is where I throw a little cold water on the fire: Cincinnati has beaten Cleveland, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Seattle. Buffalo is good, the other four teams are not. So do we really know how good Dalton is? I don’t think so. In his one start against a god defense this year, Week 3 versus San Francisco, he was putrid. We’ll know a lot more about Dalton after his four games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Like many teams, Cincy would have jumped at the chance to draft Cam Newton, but their first place positioning in the AFC North, and the fans’ growing attachment to Dalton, plus their history of personnel ineptitude, lead me to believe that the Bengals would forgo the chance to get Newton to hang onto Dalton. It would be a mistake.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes

As you can see, I have little faith in Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, or Andy Dalton, at least in relation to Cam Newton; but I also have little faith that any of their teams would trade them for Newton.

This next one though might be the most intriguing of all.

Baltimore Ravens – Joe Flacco (5-2)

Ever since Joe Flacco has taken over as QB in Baltimore, the Ravens’ offense has been as up-and-down as any offense in the NFL. Flacco has seven games in which he has tossed three or more touchdowns. He also 24 games in which he’s thrown zero touchdowns, including four playoff games (though he often gets credited with being a “winning” playoff QB). All the while, Baltimore has had a good-to-great defense and a solid running game.

Now in his fourth year, and with just one TD pass in his last four games, can the Ravens and team leaders like Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs really still have that much confidence in Flacco? I know they call him “Joe Cool” because he never seems rattled, but that’s mostly because he barely looks like he has a pulse at times. Cam Newton also never gets rattled, but he plays with an energy and smile that are both infectious. Yes, I’m one of those who believes that how you “look” and what your body language says means something when you’re the QB. Whatever Flacco may have over Newton in experience is negated by his comatose on-field appearance.

All of this is to say that I would, in a heartbeat, trade Flacco for Newton if I was the Ravens. After the last four games, and with Lewis especially running out of time, I think the Ravens would too.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes

Indianapolis Colts – Peyton Manning (0-8)

Of course the Colts would trade Curtis Painter straight up for Cam Newton. Duh. But what’s the fun in that? The real juicy question would be, right this very moment, would the Colts trade Peyton Manning If He Plays Again for Newton? And the answer is that none of us have enough information to answer. It would all come down to Manning’s health.

If there is even an iota of a chance that he can come back and play at 80-85% of his previous effectiveness, Indy would hold onto Peyton. But if they doubt he ever plays again, even if he wants to and is working like the dickens to get back, wouldn’t Indy have to trade for Cam as opposed to waiting around to see if they suck enough for Luck?

Ultimately, I think the uncertainty would tip the scales in favor of keeping Manning, and that’s the right call. It feels like there is something unfinished about Manning’s tenure in Indianapolis, and though I logically know that neck injuries can end careers, I’d still be shocked if Manning never suits up for Indy again. So I can’t see Indy pulling the trigger on this move. And with the team possibly positioning itself to draft Andrew Luck anyway, there would be no reason to trade Manning before they know as much as possible about his potential comeback.

I anticipate a lot of debate and perhaps disagreement about this one. In fact, I’m already starting to disagree with myself. I better just move along.

• Would they? No
• Should they? No

Houston Texans – Matt Schaub (5-3)

I don’t think for a second that Houston would even entertain this thought, not with Schaub and Kubiak finally on the cusp of making it to the playoffs. As good/bland as Schaub may be, good/bland isn’t necessarily an awful thing for a QB to be on a team that has a great running game, an elite WR, and a strong defense. This is the first time Houston has had all three working in the same season, and Schaub is the right guy to lead them. I wouldn’t mess with what they have going right now, not with the AFC South up for grabs this year and into the future, and I don’t think they would either.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No

San Diego Chargers – Philip Rivers (4-2)

Coming into this season it would have seemed laughable for Philip Rivers to be on this list, and perhaps it still is, but Rivers has thrown 7 TDs against 9 INTs this year, and it’s not like he has a Super Bowl title or many playoff skins on the wall to grant him immunity from at least entering this discussion.

Still, I doubt there is a chance the Chargers would seriously consider it. Rivers has a strong regular season track record over multiple seasons, and he has undoubtedly been hurt by Antonio Gates’ absence early this season. Just like I don’t think teams should overreact to a fast early season start and overrate their players (as may be the case right now in Buffalo and Cincy), I don’t think teams should underrate their players because of a slow start.

The irony of ironies, of course, is that the slow-starting Chargers are off to a fast 4-2 start during the season when their QB has more or less stunk. Go figure.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No

Philadelphia Eagles – Michael Vick (3-4)

Another one that is fascinating to think about. The Eagles went all-in on this season and are just now starting to dig themselves out of their early season hole. As tempting as it might be to get Newton, who is similar to Vick but with 6-7 years less mileage, I can’t see Andy Reid doing it. Vick is the better choice for this season and the Eagles are in it to win it in 2011.

That said, I think Newton is showing the ability to do a lot of the things Vick couldn’t or wouldn’t do early in his career. I’d love to see what Reid could do with a guy like Newton, who is not quite the runner Vick is but who is light years ahead of where Vick was as a passer in his rookie season. Just because the Eagles picked this year as the year to go for it all doesn’t mean they should necessarily mortgage a chance to improve themselves for the long term. And is Vick really playing so well that Newton couldn’t come close to replicating him, thus keeping the Eagles in contention this year? I don’t think so.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Dallas Cowboys – Tony Romo (3-4)

Whatever my answer is here it is sure to stir up some controversy, just because that’s how any discussions about Tony Romo are sure to go.

I’ve always been a Romo supporter, thinking that his critics didn’t give him enough credit for being one of the top 10 QBs in the league. While I still think Romo is an above average QB, I’m not as sold on him anymore as a potential champion. Sure, with the right supporting cast he could win a Super Bowl – hell, Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl – but I’m no longer sure that Romo can lead a franchise to a Super Bowl, and there is a big difference.

I don’t know if Cam Newton can lead a team to a Super Bowl either. It’s way to early to even consider such questions. But we did just see him lead his college team to a championship in the toughest conference in all of college football, all while rumors and innuendo and investigations were swirling around him constantly. Newton’s got it, whatever it is, and Tony Romo hasn’t proven that he does. So wouldn’t it be worth taking a chance on Newton if you’re convinced Romo probably can’t be the guy to lead a champion?

The answer to this one comes down to your belief in Romo. I no longer believe. Give me Cam. Unfortunately for Cowboys fans, Jerry Jones probably still believes in Romo. At the least, he believes in his own ego and won’t want to admit Romo can’t get it done. Hell, he wouldn’t even trade Martellus Bennett to Cincinnati for a second round pick. Why would he trade Romo for Newton?

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Detroit Lions – Matthew Stafford (6-2)

I considered putting the Lions in the automatic no category, but Mr. Glass didn’t deserve to be considered on par with Brady, Ben, Aaron Rogers, and Drew Brees. He hasn’t played a full season yet, and he hasn’t been so transcendent when he has played that Detroit wouldn’t at least consider the move.

I don’t think they’d do it though. Even with Stafford making way more money than Cam, he is the guy they have built around, and I don’t think the Lions would shake up the franchise that drastically when it is finally experiencing a true ascension.

As for me, I’d do it. Cam is showing that he knows how to utilize a top-fight receiver, and he he does not carry the same injury-prone reputation of Stafford. Add in the cost savings of Newton’s contract over Stafford’s, and I’d much rather have the rookie over the third year guy, even for the rest of the this year and certainly beyond.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Chicago Bears – Jay Cutler (4-3)

See the entry above about Joe Flacco, replace his name with “Jay Cutler” and replace “Ray Lewis” with “Brian Urlacher”. There is no reason for me to repeat myself.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes

Minnesota Vikings – Christian Ponder (2-6)

Ponder and the Vikings beat Newton and the Panthers this past weekend, with Ponder having his second straight impressive start. And while Vikings fans are slowly talking themselves into the Ponder Era, the reality is that the Vikings would have traded St. Paul to draft Newton last year, and as polished as Ponder seems to be both on and off the field, he doesn’t have 1/10th the physical potential of Newton. Minnesota probably should have been an automatic.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Josh Freeman (4-3)

Freeman was the up-and-coming superstar young quarterback coming into this season, but he has fallen back down to earth a bit through the first half of the year. His interceptions are way up, and he just doesn’t seem as comfortable or confident as he was last year, when he and rookie Mike Williams were as explosive as just about any QB-WR combo in the league.

Still, despite his struggles, I think Tampa Bay is committed to Freeman as the future of its franchise, and I know that Raheem Morris (who coached Freeman in college) believes in his young QB. Freeman is another guy who surprised me by having a smoother transition to the NFL than I thought he would. He has all of the physical tools to bust out of his current slump and still become a top-10 QB. I’d hold tight, and I think Tampa Bay would too.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No
  

Atlanta Falcons – Matt Ryan (4-3)

Like the Lions with Stafford, I don’t think Atlanta would consider making this move for more than a few seconds, but Ryan is not quite the slam dunk franchise QB that some make him out to be. He has not risen to the occasion in the Falcons’ biggest games, and he does not possess the accuracy that the top flight quarterbacks all have. He does “look” the part, he’s tough, and he’s a strong leader, which is why Atlanta is surely satisfied with Ryan and not looking to move on, nor should they be. As many questions as I have about Ryan, he’s shown enough to make me think that, unlike Romo, he could lead a franchise to a Super Bowl. With the investment Atlanta has already made in him, they’d hold tight, and I agree.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No
  

San Francisco 49ers – Alex Smith (6-1)

Another very, very intriguing one simply because of how this season has started. This one falls right in line with the Bills and Bengals, two teams doing far better than anyone expected thanks to solid play from their QB. Smith has not been asked to win games for the 49ers this year, he’s just been asked not to lose them with a great defense and solid running game by his side. And he hasn’t.

Still, this is Alex Smith. He has not done anything spectacular this year that Cam Newton couldn’t have done, even as a rookie. The issue would be whether Newton would have made mistakes that Smith wouldn’t have made to sabotage the 49ers in a game or two. That I don’t know. But I do know that, again, this is Alex Smith. As solid as he’s been, and as much of an impact as Jim Harbaugh has made on him, the difference in talent and swagger between he and Newton is obvious.

To me, the 6-1 record of the 49ers, and their incredible four game lead this early in this season, would make the team more likely to do such a deal. They’d have some cushion if Newton struggled to adapt to his new surroundings; though one thing we have learned about Newton is that he rarely if ever struggles to adapt. It may be his greatest strength of all.

• Would they? Yes (Well…maybe…probably)
  
• Should they? Yes
  

St. Louis Rams – Sam Bradford (1-6)

Following right along with my thoughts on Stafford and Ryan, I don’t think there is much of a chance that St. Louis would pull the plug on the Bradford Era already, especially considering Bradford was the NFL’s Rookie of the Year last year and just needs protection and a few good targets to showcase his pinpoint accuracy. But like Stafford and Ryan, Bradford hasn’t earned Automatic No status. So the Rams might think about it, especially considering the money, but I think they’d stick with Bradford, and I wouldn’t blame them. I still think he’s going to be a star.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No
  

Arizona Cardinals – Kevin Kolb (1-6)

I thought long and hard about putting Arizona in Automatic Yes territory, but would they really cut the cord on Kolb so soon after giving him a long-term deal? Of course they should, but we know how egos sometimes get in the way of sound decision making, so I just wonder if they would.

Ultimately, I think so. Larry Fitzgerald has to be watching Cam Newton resuscitate Steve Smith’s career and get horribly jealous. That’s what Kolb was supposed to do for Fitzy, but obviously he hasn’t come close. Not that Arizona should be surprised by this mind you, because Kolb is basically just doing exactly what he did in Philadelphia. What, should he have turned down the money?

I don’t think it would take Arizona very long to say yes here.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes

###

So, how many teams would trade their current QB for Cam Newton right now?

Okay, let’s tally up the “would they” column, as decided by me:

• No: Buffalo, New York Jets, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Houston, San Diego, Philadelphia, Dallas, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, St. Louis
• Yes: Baltimore, Chicago, Minnesota, San Francisco, Arizona

Combined with the automatics from up above, that means I think 14 teams would trade their current starting quarterback straight up for Cam Newton. That seems very low to me; and of course it would seem low to me because I personally project a lot of disconnect between what teams should do and what they would do were this a real rather than hypothetical situation.

If I tally it up in terms of my “should they” answers, it would look much different:

• No: Indianapolis, Houston, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, St. Louis
• Yes: Buffalo, New York Jets, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Dallas, Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota, San Francisco, Arizona

Based on what I would do in each team’s case, I think 20 teams’ QB situations would be improved immediately with Cam Newton. Maybe for a few there would be a short-term step back, but it would be worth it for the projected long-term steps forward.

But what I am really interested in here is your opinion.

Below is a poll that lists all of the teams I think are not obvious. Vote for all of the ones who you think should (not necessarily would) trade their current QB straight up for Cam Newton in our hypothetical fantasy. Then take to the comment section to state your peace or to agree/disagree with any of my assessments.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

I invite your thoughts below.

Leading the AFC West, the San Diego Chargers (4-2) will travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs (3-3). Kansas City looked buried at 0-3, but they have a huge opportunity tonight to get right back into the thick of the AFC West race.

Let’s take a look at the teams.

San Diego Chargers

San Diego is coming off a loss to the New York Jets in week 7. Quarterback Philip Rivers needs to step up his game. He’s been easily flustered this year and has been more hesitant when the play doesn’t come through immediately. With only seven touchdowns and nine interceptions this season, Rivers needs to pull himself together. Kansas City is not a team against whom you want to make mistakes, as the Oakland Raiders learned last week.

Key for Rivers is to relax and let the plays come together instead of trying to force the play and making unnecessary mistakes. Having Antonio Gates back healthy should help in that regard. The Chargers offense is 8th in the league with total number of yards, but they are only 15th in number of points per game. The offense for this team is decent, but it could definitely be better, and has been in the not so recent past.

The Chargers are ranked 7th in the league for passing yards per game with 273.2. Running back Mike Tolbert has been listed questionable for the game due to a hand injury. Leading the team in receptions and second in rushing, this put pressure on other offensive players Ryan Matthews (running back) and Vincent Jackson (wide receiver). Jackson has dealt with nagging injuries all season, but practiced for his first full week. He was shut down last week against the Jets, but the matchup against the Chiefs should allow him to make some plays.

San Diego’s defense has suffered a multitude of injuries and is thinning out. Safety Bob Sanders and outside linebacker Larry English are both out for the season, while defensive end Luis Castillo remains out for an extended period of time, and outside linebacker Shaun Phillips is out for at least Monday’s game. Inside linebacker Donald Butler mentioned that the defense is still trying to build the chemistry needed to hold strong offenses.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs offense has struggled this season. Quarterback Matt Cassel has had eight touchdowns and a completion percentage of 63.5, but he has hurt the team with seven interceptions. Cassel has struggled when facing the Chargers and has only thrown for 200 yards once in the last five starts against San Diego. Luckily, Cassel will be playing at home and will have the home crowd to help him focus on the game.

The Chiefs are ranked 7th in league in rushing yards with 129.3. However, they are ranked a lowly 30th for their receiving yards. Running back Jackie Battle has led the Chiefs in rushing yards with 232 in 45 carries. Battle along with Thomas Jones will be the rushing players to watch. Jones and Battle have not been stopped when up against weak defenses KC has played lately. With the Chargers feeling some hurt on the defensive side of the ball, this will be a great opportunity for the Chiefs top ranked rushing tandem to shine.

Wide Receiver Dwayne Bowe has helped the offense by leading in receiving yards with 496 yards and four touchdowns. When facing the Chargers in week three, Bowe had 67 yard receiving and one touchdown. Steve Breaston should also play a big part in the game for the Chiefs on Monday. With all eyes focused on Bowe, the Chiefs are sure to make some big plays to Breaston to try to beat out rival Chargers.

Chiefs-Chargers Prediction

While the Chiefs have the home field advantage, I believe the Chargers will pull through and defeat Kansas City for the second time this season. I believe it will be a close game that will be dictated by the offenses, as both defenses have been plagued by injuries.

Overall, the Chargers offense will outplay the Chiefs, with Philip Rivers having the chance to pull it together against the average Chiefs defense, and the Chargers will pull farther ahead in the AFC West.

San Diego Chargers 28 | Kansas City Chiefs 21

**********

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs Game Info

• Chargers-Chiefs Date, Time, and TV: Monday, October 31st at 8:30 ET on ESPN
• Chargers-Chiefs Announcers: Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, and Ron Jaworski
• Chargers-Chiefs Point Spread: Chargers -3.5
• Chargers-Chiefs Over-Under Odds: 44

Did you miss me?

Jon has himself a busy schedule this week, so he texted me this morning and asked if I’d be up for reprising my role as the author of our weekly Start/Sit column here at MSF. I have to admit, as soon as I saw his text I was pretty pumped.

Doing these posts every week, week after week, can admittedly be a bit of a grind, as I learned over the last couple of years; so I was happy to let Jon take it over this year and focus my efforts in other areas. But I’ve missed the weekly challenge of poring over matchups and stats and trends to figure out which players to recommend to you as starts and sits.

So it’s good to be back in the saddle.

Anyway, It’s not like I’ve been totally absent. I still offer commentary on Jon’s posts, answer questions in the comment sections, and monitor the @FantasyMSF Twitter account. So I haven’t really given you a chance to miss me even if you wanted to. Now though, for the first time all year, I have to go on record with start and sit picks.

I’m ready. Let’s roll.

First up, let’s take a quick old school look back at how Jon did with his top-line start/sit picks last week:

• Start ‘em hits: Ben Roethlisberger, Dwayne Bowe, Fred Davis
• Start ‘em misses: Ryan Torain
• Sit ‘em hits: Vincent Jackson, Willis McGahee, Dustin Keller
• Sit ‘em misses: Cam Newton

Other suggestions he was slam-dunk correct on: sit Philip Rivers and Kevin Kolb; sit Larry Fitgerald and Brandon Lloyd

Other suggestions he was dead wrong on: start Matt Hasselbeck; sit Mark Sanchez; sit Jonathan Stewart; that Visanthe Shiancoe would be the “worst” tight end

Overall, a decent week for Jon. His top-line picks were solid, but some of his bolder “other” suggestions went awry. Jon has had a very strong track record this season though, so the bar is high for my relief appearance.

Here are my thoughts on who you should start and who you should sit in Week 8.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em
Lineup Advice and Projections

Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 8:

• Falcons
• Bears
• Packers
• Jets
• Raiders
• Buccaneers

Several startable QBs are out this week (Rodgers, Ryan, Freeman), as are some RBs that teams have come to count on (Turner, Forte, DMC), and some top flight WRs (R. White and the Packers crew, among many others). That means that not only do you need to bone up on your waiver wire knowledge, you need to be prepared to make the key start/sit decisions at the fringes of your roster that will be the difference between winning and losing.

Lucky for you, that’s why we’re here.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em Picks: Quarterbacks

Start ‘Em QB: Joe Flacco, Baltimore (v Arizona)

Know that I am currently writing this at 6:23 pm Central time on Monday evening. So the Monday night game between Baltimore and Jacksonville hasn’t even started. Thus, there is a chance that Flacco throws up one of his patented stinkers tonight against Jacksonville’s better-than-you-think pass defense (210 yards per game, 9 TDs heading into week 7).

Even if he does, I don’t care. You start him against Arizona and expect top 5 stats.

Here are some numbers:

• Cam Newton: 422 yards
• Rex Grossman: 291 yards
• Eli Manning: 321 yards
• Ben Roethlisberger: 361 yards

These are the yardage numbers that four of the Cardinals’ opponents have hung on their pass D this year. The two I left out were Minnesota and Seattle, because neither team had competent quarterbacking when they faced the Cardinals. Joe Flacco may not be a superstar, but he is certainly competent, and he has been a guy in the past who has put up huge numbers against inferior defenses. Consider his performance against St. Louis earlier this year, one of the few pass defenses that could be considered as bad as Arizona’s: 389 yards, 3 TDs for Flacco.

Flacco’s overall numbers are somewhat depressed by some tough matchups early in the season (Jets, Texans, Titans when they were actually trying), but don’t forget that this is a guy who has tossed at least 21 TD passes the last two seasons and who tends to get them in bunches when they come. This week will be one of those weeks when they come in bunches. Start Flacco.

Joe Flacco fantasy football Week 8 projection: 275 yards, 3 TDs

Other start ‘em QBs for Week Eight:

• Eli Manning isn’t sexy from a fantasy perspective, but you can win with him. And you can certainly win with him when he has tasty matchups like the one he has this week against Miami.
• You realize Cam Newton is a top 10 option at QB now, right? Okay, just checking. Make sure he’s in your lineup.

Sit ‘Em QB: Tim Tebow, Denver (v Detroit)

Yep, I’m going to throw some cold water on Tebowmania.

Despite finishing with respectable fantasy numbers in Week 7 (2 TDs, 200+ total yards), you really have to have watched the full game to put those numbers into context. Through 55 minutes, Tebow was hovering around negative fantasy points when you take into account his fumble, but then he led a furious five minute comeback that included most of his passing yards and both of his TDs.

A few things to keep in mind as you analyze Tebow’s chances against Detroit:

• Miami has given up 12 TD passes and picked off only two through six games, so the matchup was very favorable. Detroit, on the other hand, gives up barely 200 passing yards per game, has picked off opposing QBs ten times, and has allowed only 8 TD passes in 7 games. This matchup is not favorable.
• Miami only had eight sacks coming into Week 7 before amassing seven against on Tebow. Detroit has 17 sacks in 7 games thanks to a ferocious defensive line that makes indecisive quarterbacks pay. Tebow looked very indecisive in Week 7, which will not bode well at all for him against Suh, Avril, and Co.

I do like Tebow as a solid fantasy backup this season. He’ll be able to produce decent fantasy stats when the matchup is favorable. This one absolutely is not. In fact, it’s just about the worst matchup for Tebow at this stage in his career, especially with Willis McGahee being out and removing the Broncos’ only consistent rushing threat.

Stay far, far away…this week at least.

Tim Tebow fantasy football Week 8 projection: 125 yards passing, 45 yards rushing, 0 TDs, 2 INTs

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Eight:

• What the hell is wrong with Philip Rivers? I know Jon is as baffled as anyone. He thought Rivers would be the best fantasy QB this year, but Rivers has just 7 TDs through six games to go along with 9 INTs. He now has to face a Kansas City secondary that picked Oakland QBs off six times last week (I know it was Boller & Palmer, but still) and who Rivers hasn’t lit up historically (only 17 TDs in 12 career games). Plus the game is at Arrowhead, always a tough place to play. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I think if you have a reasonable alternative, it’s time make Rivers (and by extension Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson) prove that he’s the Rivers of old before you start him with confidence.
• Be wary of Ryan Fitzpatrick this week, despite what Cam Newton did against the Redskins last week. Washington has problems, but pass defense hasn’t been one of them. The ‘Skins, now desperate after another loss, have given up only five TD passes all season long. Fitzy doesn’t pose the running threat that Cam did, so Washington should have an easier job containing him.

Jon’s thoughts:

I really don’t have much to disagree with here…although I would say I am even higher on Eli Manning than Jerod is.  He should absolutely light up the Miami secondary.

One other guy I would definitely look at starting would be Matt Hasselbeck…he will be playing against the Colts.  All I really need to say here is, “62-7.”

One more under-the-radar guy I would look at is Andy Dalton.  The Seattle secondary is nearly as bad as Arizona’s, and at this point, it looks like the Red Rifle might just be good.  Plus, he has the Rookie of the Year Runner-Up (AJ Green) on his team.  You all know how much I love him…start the Red Rifle if your guy is on a bye.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em Picks: Running Backs

Start ‘Em RB: Chris Johnson, Tennessee (v Indianapolis)

Longtime readers know that when I do these start/sit posts, I try to never make my top-line picks obvious ones. Why would I tell you to start Adrian Peterson or Aaron Rodgers? That offers no one any value. So how crazy is it that in Week 8, former fantasy super-duperstar Chris Johnson warrants mention in the start ‘em category?

What’s even crazier is that some of you may think I’m crazy for trusting CJ268 (his actual rushing total this year) as my start ‘em RB!

But there is plenty of reason to expect the long-awaited CJ breakout this week, and it has everything to do with the matchup: Indianapolis. The Colts make every opposing running back look like Gale Sayers. Through seven games this year Indy is allowing 150.9 rushing yards per game and has allowed 9 touchdowns. If CJ can’t have a fantasy-relevant day against them then the Titans need to sue him for fraud immediately. I’m only half joking.

With that said, keep this in mind: just because Johnson torches Indy’s run D (which I expect), it doesn’t mean he’s “back”. It just means he has a pulse. On the bright side, there are some tasty matchups upcoming on the schedule (Carolina, Tampa Bay, Indy again, Buffalo, all in the bottom third in the league in run D), so feel free to enjoy a bit of optimism if the old CJ returns on Sunday.

Chris Johnson fantasy football Week 8 projection: 140 yards rushing, 2 TDs, 5 receptions, 45 yards

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 8:

• Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles are both definite starts this week, and in deeper leagues or on teams especially decimated by injury or bye weeks Pierre Thomas has some value as well. It all comes down to the matchup. New Orleans faces St. Louis in Week 8, the team with by far the worst run defense in the NFL. Last week the Saints faced the team with the second-worst run D in the NFL, Indiacrapolis, and all three of these guys put up solid fantasy numbers. Sure, it’d be great if there was one guy racking up all the fantasy goodness that Sean Payton and Drew Brees create, but come 6-team bye weeks like this one, just be thankful that the Saints will give opportunities to three running backs against a team like the Rams. 
• I can’t believe I’m doing this, but Ryan Torain is probably a top 20 back in Week 8. Despite two straight awful outings after his supposed breakout a few weeks back, Torain has a) a good matchup (Buffalo, 30th against the run) and b) the starting role with Tim Hightower injured and Roy Helu apparently not yet in good enough graces with Mike Shanahan to warrant the starting nod. We’ve seen Torain produce before in Shanahan’s system when given the chance, so you can start him with some measure of confidence…but don’t come blaming me if he ends up getting five carries and doing nothing. You and I both know we’re playing with fire talking about starting a Shanny RB, but the circumstances do seem to make the risk worth the potential reward in this case.
• I probably don’t need to tell you to start DeMarco Murray after his performance last week, but just in case you were worried that he only succeeded because of the matchup, his matchup is pretty good in Week 8 too. Philly gives up 123.8 rushing yards and a TD per game. With Felix Jones expected to still be out, Murray should get the lion’s share of the work. But take note: if you can, now isn’t a bad time to try to sell high on Murray’s inflated value.

Sit ‘Em RB: Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty, Cleveland (at San Francisco)

I don’t care who is healthy, who starts, or even if Cleveland signs Jim Brown for the week to come play. San Francisco has the best front 7 in football right now. Yes, I’m serious…watch them. Remember how we all used to look at Pittsburgh, and still do with Baltimore, and consider sitting even our studs against them? If you’re not thinking of San Fran in that light now, you’re mistaken. Just trust me. I’ve watched every minute of every one of their games this year. They are legit.

Plus, even when healthy Hillis has been far from a stud this year. Not only is he not nearly as effective this year as he was for much of last year, the Browns offense has regressed, leading to very few scoring opportunities for the backs. The ceiling for Cleveland’s RBs right now is quite likely what Montario Hardesty put up in Week 7: 122 total yards on 35 touches with no TDs. And that was against Seattle, a decent but not great run D. The 49ers are giving up just 74.7 rushing yards per game and have not allowed a running TD all season. Yikes.

Unless Cleveland signs the young Jim Brown to play on Sunday, sit whoever is carrying the ball for them. And against this 49ers run D, rested after the bye, even a young Jim Brown might have trouble finding holes.

Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty combined fantasy football projection for Week 8: 65 rushing yards, 40 receiving yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 8:

• Willis McGahee is out, which will lead some people to get excited about Knowshon Moreno, as will the matchup against Detroit’s less than stellar run D. I disagree. Granted, he’s not a terrible option if your lineup is decimated, but I’m waiting until he does something positive to trust him with a starting slot. Detroit will be able to stack the box against Tebow, which will make the going tough for Knowshon.
• That’s it. I’m off the DeAngelo Williams train. I’ve given him plenty of chances, and he always seems to repay me with flaming piles of turd like his 10-carry, 35-yard performance in Week 7, which was made even more frustrating by the fact that Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart ran wild against the Redskins. Make this guy have two straight solid weeks before you trust him. (And for the record, I’m not all that high on Jonathan Stewart either this week. Minnesota is good against the run.)
• Don’t get too excited about Bernard Scott, who will be filling in for the suspended Cedric Benson this week. Not only is Seattle decent against the run (105 yards per game, 5 TDs allowed) but Brian Leonard is there to siphon carries. Plus, offensive coordinator Jay Gruden clearly has confidence in Andy Dalton, AJ Green, et al, and he won’t hesitate to keep airing it out.

Jon’s thoughts:

I LOVE LOVE LOVE Ryan Torain this week.  Start him with confidence!

Also, let me pass along a quick story for all of you Knowshon Moreno lovers (I am one by the way…but this may make you wary of him as an NFL back).  Allegedly, the kid had never even played football until one day, his high school coach saw him playing tag with a bunch of kids and nobody could touch him.  He thought to himself, “Wow…that kid would make a great running back.”  The legend was born.  Anyway, Know (I have it on very good authority that this is what all of his friends call him) began torching people in high school, and even excelled in college because of his shear athletic ability.  However, he doesn’t really LOVE football like a lot of these guys, and he has never been a guy that people would describe as a “workout warrior.”  Now that he’s in the NFL, he can’t beat people just based off of his talent anymore.  Really, he’s a lot like Julio Jones.  Add all of this to the fact that the Broncos aren’t very good, and a 30-year-old with a blown apart knee has been BETTER than him all season…and I would stay away from Knowshon…maybe forever.

As for the Panthers’ running backs, I’m actually much higher on Jonathan Stewart (and not just because I own him in my league).  Minnesota is great against the run, so Williams will be neutralized.  However, Cam Newton LOVES throwing to Stewart out of the flat, and with Minnesota’s pass rush, I expect Newton to make a lot of quick, short throws to his tight ends and Stewart.  Stewart may not have a lot of yards on the ground, but I could see him approaching triple digits through the air.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em Picks: Wide Receivers

Start ‘Em WR: Brandon Lloyd, St. Louis (v New Orleans)

Regardless of whether Sam Bradford plays or not, I like Lloyd this week. In his first start with his new team last week, he compiled 6 receptions for 74 yards with A.J. Feeley at QB. That was in a blowout against Dallas. Clearly the potential for a blowout is there this week with the awful Rams going up against the juggernaut that just obliterated Indy to the tune of 62 points.

It is safe to assume that St. Louis will be passing a lot to try to keep with Brees and Co, and if they are, either St. Louis QB will surely continue to target their new toy. Plus, the Saints have given up 12 TD passes in 7 games, so they can be had through the air.

Lloyd proved last year that he’s a top flight wide receiver in Josh McDaniels’ system. He’s back with McD now, and I think he’s a possible top 10 WR from here on out, especially when you consider that St. Louis’ schedule eases up in the second half.

Brandon Lloyd fantasy football Week 8 projection: 7 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Eight:

• After two very subpar weeks, Antonio Brown took advantage of a favorable matchup against Arizona to bust out with 7 catches and 102 yards. He has another favorable matchup against New England in Week 8. Seeing as how Bill Belichick likes to take out the other team’s #1 offensive option, the focus of the Patriots D will likely be Mike Wallace. That should provide opportunities for Brown to make a few big plays, which he’s proven he can make.
• Michael Crabtree is quickly becoming Alex Smith’s go-to guy. He had his best game of the season in Week 6 when he snared 9 passes for 77 yards. With Braylon Edwards expected to return and stretch the defense, Crabtree should have even more room to do his Cris Carter impression. Cleveland’s pass defense stats are pretty solid from a yardage perspective, but they have given up 8 passing TDs in 6 games. I have a suspicion Crabtree makes his first venture into the end zone in Week 8.
• I haven’t been very complimentary of Steve Breaston over the past few weeks, but he is starting to win me over with his consistency. Breaston has at least 50 yards in four straight games and scored two TDs against Indy in Game 5. He faces a San Diego defense in Week 8 that allowed three TD passes to the Jets’ #2 receiver, Plaxico Burress. Though Dwayne Bowe will always be the top red zone option for Matt Cassel, the QB is clearly gaining trust in Breaston, so it’s time I do too. (Take note: just because Breaston is listed doesn’t mean I consider him a slam dunk start, but as a guy that may be on your waiver wire he offers some value for those desperate with six teams on bye.)

Sit ‘Em WR: Deion Branch, New England (at Pittsburgh)

I had a really, really hard time coming up with a sit ‘em WR for this week. With six teams on bye, it’s hard to say that any top 40 WR is a sit, especially in leagues where three wide receivers start. But I didn’t want to tell you to sit someone obvious or from a crappy offense, so I’m going to step out on a limb with Branch.

I’ll give you my reasons for suggesting Branch as a sit candidate so you can see if you agree with my thinking or not:

• Pittsburgh is #1 in the NFL against the pass this year, giving up just 171.9 yards per game and only 8 TDs in 7 games.
• Branch is the fourth option in the New England passing attack behind Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and Rob Gronkowski.
• Despite his ballyhooed rapport with Tom Brady, Branch has one game with zero receptions this year, another with one reception, and another with three catches. Yes, he’s had at least 69 yards receiving in four of his six games, and he’s caught two TDs, but there is a lot of inconsistency here.
• In his career, Branch averages just over 5 catches and 61.5 yards per game and against Pittsburgh, which is decent, but he’s only hit paydirt once.

I would not be shocked at all if Branch ends up having a good or even great game on Sunday. Such is the nature of New England’s offense. But I think there are plenty of reasons to think this will be another of Branch’s off weeks, so if you’re blessed with four or five good options this week despite all the byes, consider those options strongly.

Deion Branch fantasy football Week 8 projection: 4 receptions, 45 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week Eight:

• Tim Tebow is my sit ‘em QB, so clearly I don’t have much confidence in the Denver passing game. Thus, stick Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas on your benches. If you have to play one of them, Thomas is the guy I’d want based on what I saw in Week 7. 
• Reggie Wayne is really struggling. He hasn’t eclipsed 77 yards or scored a touchdown since Week 1. Tennessee may or may not be a good matchup, it just depends on which Titans team shows up, but Pierre Garcon remains the Colts WR to start right now anyway, and I’m waiting until Wayne can string together a few solid weeks in a row before thinking of him as a must-start WR again.
• Sidney Rice had a stellar 8-catch, 109-yard performance in Week 3, but his numbers have gotten steadily worse in every week since. Seeing as how he is no longer playing with his Viking buddy Tarvaris Jackson, and how not every pass D is as friendly to opposing WRs as Arizona’s is, it’s not a surprise. As long as Charlie Whitehurst is playing QB and the opponent is halfway competent against the pass, sit all Seahawks WRs unless you’re desperate.

Jon’s thoughts:

How are you not starting Steve Smith?  After watching Greg Jennings run all over the field against the Vikings, I am supremely confident that Steve Smith (a guy who plays very similarly to Greg Jennings, but is even more explosive) will have a MASSIVE day.  Steve Smith has been carrying terrible quarterbacks for…well…for forever, and now that he has someone that is better than competent, he is better than ever.  Most people probably don’t realize this, but Smith is the #4 WR in fantasy this year…yet he STILL ISN’T OWNED IN EVERY LEAGUE IN YAHOO!!!  This is unacceptable.  Start Smith with confidence this week…he could very well have the best week of anyone not named Megatron.

Jerod’s rebuttal thoughts:

Excuse me, but where did I say I’m not starting Steve Smith? Of course you start Steve Smith. I don’t want to patronize our readers, so I assume they can make obvious decisions like that. Although your note about him not being owned in all Yahoo leagues is concerning and ridiculous, so I’m glad you pointed Smith’s greatness out for the few who are unaware. But believe me, Smith is starting on any team I have.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em Picks: Tight Ends

Start ‘Em TE: Jake Ballard, New York Giants (v Miami)

Do you realize that Jake Ballard has caught 11 balls for nearly 200 yards and two touchdowns over the Giants’ last three games? It’s true. Many were lamenting the fact that Kevin Boss left for Oakland, and the effect it would have on Eli Manning’s stats, but Manning seems to have found a nice rapport with the Boss-like Ballard.

Fortuitously, Ballard’s Week 8 matchup is solid. Miami is one of the worst defenses in the league in terms of points given up to opposing tight ends. Add it all up, and Ballard is an outstanding start candidate this week.

Jake Ballard fantasy football Week 8 projection: 4 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week Eight:

• The Browns are also very bad at containing opposing tight ends. That means Vernon Davis needs to be playing on all rosters who have him. 
• The Cowboys are another teams that has given up a decent amount of fantasy points to opposing tight ends this year. With Brent Celek coming off of his first good game of the year (4 catches, TD) he is a sneaky start if you’re desperate.
• By now, you shouldn’t need me to tell you to get Fred Davis in your lineups…do you? If so, get him in your lineups.

Sit ‘Em TE: Dallas Clark, Indianapolis (at Tennessee)

Clark did not record a catch on Sunday night after having his first Clark-like game of the season in Week 6 (6 catches, 53 yards). Tennessee is a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of holding down opposing tight ends, but this selection is more based on lack of faith in the Colts offense than any confidence in the Jekyll and Hide Titans.

Clark has only scored two TDs this year and has only one game with more than four catches or 46 yards. The safer bet this season has been to take the under on those numbers, which is just about the floor for being considered a solid start option in a standard fantasy league. Let someone else pretend Dallas Clark is still the Clark of old. Don’t you make that mistake.

Dallas Clark fantasy football Week 8 projection: 3 catches 35 yards, 0 TD

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week Eight:

• Heath Miller‘s production has been steadily increasing, but I’m a bit worried about him in Week 8. New England is pretty good against opposing tight ends, and Miller has to score TDs to have value, as his yardage totals rarely will get you excited.
• Scott Chandler has four TDs this season, which looks really good when you’re sorting your waiver wire in desperate need of a fill-in. Don’t be fooled. Chandler hasn’t scored since Week 3 and and he has a grand total of 1 yard receiving over the last two games.

Jon’s thoughts:

It’s very hard to find tight ends who are going to have bad games from week to week, however I would consider sitting Owen Daniels as well.  Jacksonville’s defense has been very good (even though the rest of their team is awful), and even though Houston has been very good this year, Schaub hasn’t necessarily been lighting anybody up through the air.  He’s been good, but not great every week, and he’s only thrown 12 touchdown passes.  With all of that said, there may not be a better option than Owen Daniels…but I think he will have a down week on Sunday.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em Picks: Defense/Special Teams

Start ‘Em D/ST: Detroit Lions (at Denver)

If you want a full explanation for why I’m recommending Detroit’s D this week, just scroll up and read what I wrote about Tim Tebow. I like him, I’m rooting for him, but this is just a great matchup for Detroit’s defense in terms of what they do well.

You beat Detroit on the ground, and the Broncos will struggle to run with McGahee out. That means Tebow will have to try to win the game through the air and, well, Ndamukong Suh and Co could have a lot of fun.

Detroit Lions D/ST fantasy football Week 8 projection: 13 or fewer points, 5+ sacks, 1 turnover

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week Eight:

• Houston’s defense continues to surprise me with how well it’s playing under new coordinator Wade Philliips. Jacksonville and rookie QB Blaine Gabbert, who will be coming off of a Monday night game, should be a tasty matchup.
• Cincinnati’s D will be a popular choice this week going up against Seattle, and it’s a good choice. Just be wary of those tricky Seahawks at home. They will often surprise teams that are traveling over a couple of time zones to play them in their very loud stadium. That said, Charlie Whitehurst is Charlie Whitehurst.

Sit ‘Em D/ST: Pittsburgh Steelers (v New England)

The Steelers’ defense is starting to play better as of late, but they are far from the dominating unit we’re used to. Wheras a Pittsburgh-New England game might once have been a battle of top defenses, it is now a meeting of two of the top passing attacks in football.

Between Tom Brady, Big Ben, Mike Wallace, Wes Welker, et al, this should be a fun game to watch…so long as you’re not starting either defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST fantasy football Week 8 projection: 27 or more points, 2 sacks, 1 turnover

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week Eight:

• Don’t get too excited about Kansas City’s defense after what they did to Oakland. Kyle Boller and Carson Palmer were predictably awful and the Chiefs took advantage, but I expect more out of Philip Rivers and a Chargers team smarting after a tough, embarrassing loss to the Jets. It may not be enough to make Rivers a sure-fire start (as I mentioned above), but I do think the balance of the Chargers’ offense should allow them to put up points against KC.
• Minnesota’s defense is still pretty good against the run, but they are getting torched through the air. And after what Cam Newton was able to do against a very good Washington defense last week, the whole “play any D going against a rookie QB” adage does not work when he’s involved. In fact, it’s becoming start to avoid defenses that are going up against the amazing Cam.

Jon’s thoughts:

I would start the NY Giants this week.  While it’s true that they are not the Giants’ defense of old, they have an unbelievably favorable matchup against the Dolphins…who barely scored 15 points against Denver last week.

Don’t be depressed by their lack of production so far…they could have a 3 or 4 turnover week in Week 8.

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There they are. My Week 8 start/sit picks are in the books and on the record. That was fun! My thanks to Jon for ceding his start/sit saddle this week and giving me the opportunity to give it another go.

Now hopefully all of these picks work out for everyone who visits this week.

As usual, we’ll be answering your questions all week. So drop them below, and then stay tuned to the site for the rest of the week as we post new fantasy content every day.

As soon as I opened up my big mouth and proclaimed that 2011 was going to be the most prolific fantasy year ever, scoring around the league plummets.  No worries.

At least I had a great week on the predictions front, as I was right on nearly 80% of my picks.

As always, here is a quick look back at last week before we move on to week 7.

Week Six Recap

• Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Best Player/Start Em/Other Guys I Liked - (Hits:  Top 12 for QBs/TEs and Top 30 for RBs/WRs)
• Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Worst Player/Sit Em/Other Guys I Didn’t Like - (Hits:  13th or worse for QBs/TEs and 31st or worse for RBs/WRs)
• Quick Note:  The following players got injured and have been removed from the grading scale for fairness:  Peyton Hillis, Julio Jones

Overall: 30 for 38 (79%)

Best Player Predictions: 4 for 4

• Hits: Tom Brady, Ray Rice, Calvin Johnson, Aaron Hernandez

• Misses: None

Start Em Predictions: 2 for 3

• Hits: Tony Romo, Dez Bryant

• Misses: Benjamin Watson

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 13 for 15

• Hits: Josh Freeman, Michael Vick, Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Adrian Peterson, Mike Wallace, Wes Welker, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, Jimmy Graham, Dallas Clark, Jason Witten
• Misses: Ben Roethlisberger, Curtis Painter

Worst Player Predictions: 3 for 4

• Hits: Miami QB, Mike Thomas, Scott Chandler
• Misses: Jahvid Best

Sit Em Predictions: 2 for 4

• Hits: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jermichael Finley
• Misses: Arian Foster (although I was VERY close…), Steve Johnson

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 6 for 8

• Hits: Matt Schaub, Alex Smith, Sam Bradford, Tim Hightower, Ted Ginn Jr., Randall Cobb
• Misses: Jonathan Stewart, Mark Ingram

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Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em Sit Em

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 7:

• Buffalo
• Cincinnati
• New England
• NY Giants
• Philadelphia
• San Francisco

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Quarterbacks

Projected Best Performer – Tony Romo

Dez Bryant and Miles Austin came back off of injury last week and played very well.  Unfortunately, none of them could get into the end zone against the Patriots’ defense.  Week seven should be a different story as the Cowboys host the hapless St. Louis Rams.  I feel VERY good about this pick – when you can seamlessly insert the word “hapless” into a sentence and nobody disagrees, you know you are in for a good week in fantasy.

Tony Romo Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 380 yards, 4 TDs

Start Em – Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben got off to a great start last week before Rashard Mendenhall got rolling.  Look for Big Ben to have a big day against the very average Arizona secondary.

Ben Roethlisberger Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 295 yards, 3 TDs

Other Start ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Seven:

• Jay Cutler – First of all, he just DOMINATES. Secondly, haven’t you been more and more impressed with him every week?  Tampa Bay is good, but not against the pass (27th in the league), and Cutler has clearly proven that he is an elite QB.  If Mike Martz really HAS solved their offensive line problems with the heavier protection packages, look for Cutler to dominate yet again.
• Matthew Stafford – Atlanta has the sixth worst passing defense in the league…and Calvin Johnson won’t be happy about getting shut out for the first game all year.  Big day for Stafford and Co.
• Drew Brees – He’s amazing…and playing the Colts.
• Matt Hasselbeck – As long as he stays healthy, he should put up some good numbers.  Plus, he’s playing the Texans who are in the bottom half of the league at defending the pass.

Projected Worst Performer – Blaine Gabbert

Rookie…who may not be that good…playing on MNF…against Baltimore.  Yikes.

Blaine Gabbert Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 140 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs

Sit Em – Cam Newton

Coming off of his first rough game of the year, Cam Newton would like to be playing someone soft on the defensive side of the ball.  Unfortunately, he will be facing the Redskins, who are sixth in the league against the pass.  Look for Cam to still get his points (running the ball and maybe scoring a TD or two), but not come anywhere close to the production he had in weeks one through five.

Cam Newton Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 230 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; 40 yards rushing.

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Seven:

• Mark Sanchez and Philip Rivers – San Diego and NY are ranked 1st and 4th against the pass respectively.  Don’t expect either team to really air it out in this one.
• Kevin Kolb – Isn’t it an amazing testament to Dick LeBeau that for years you couldn’t run on the Steelers, and as soon as the league turned pass-happy the Steelers became impossible to pass against?  So far, they are second in the league against the pass, allowing a paltry 5.9 yards per attempt.  Wow.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I agree that Tony Romo is a start this week against the Rams’ secondary, but it should be noted that I was VERY high on Romo last week against New England and he disappointed. I think there are some real confidence issues on the Dallas offense. Watch this game carefully. If Romo doesn’t have a big day with Dez and Miles, and Jason Garrett continues to be a conservative play caller, I’m going to start to worry about Romo’s fantasy potential for the rest of the season.

As for Gabbert, I think you’re over-shooting his potential. One TD against Baltimore? Only in extreme garbage time. (So I guess it’s possible…)

I don’t know if you opinions on Cutler and Cam will be popular, but I agree with them. Sound reasoning on both.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Running Backs

Projected Best Performer – Ray Rice

Monday Night Football against the Jaguars.  Don’t get your hopes up if you have a ten point lead going into Monday if the other guy has Ray Rice.

Ray Rice Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 190 total yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Ryan Torain

Torain got a lot of touches last week, and the Panthers are last in the league against the run.  Torain, and maybe even Roy Helu should have a very good game against the fighting Cam-Cams.

Ryan Torain Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 140 total yards, 1 TDs

Other Start ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Seven:

• Whoever is rushing for TB – Either way, he should have a good game against a poor Chicago front seven.
• Rashard Mendenhall – Back to back productive weeks for the Pittsburgh running game, and finally a good week for Mendenhall, who has been extremely disappointing this season.
• Michael Turner – Detroit’s outstanding defensive line is surprisingly lackluster against the run.  Plus, ATL is trying to get back to their old, conservative ways.  Big day for Michael Turner.

Projected Worst Performer – GB Running Backs

Green Bay’s running backs aren’t good…and Minnesota’s rush defense is really good…and it doesn’t matter because Aaron Rodgers and the Packers simply don’t need to run the ball.

Packers’ RBs Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 65 total yards

Sit Em – Willis McGahee

The Dolphins will be thinking one thing this week: “let’s see if Tim Tebow can beat us.”  They will be stacking the box to stuff the run, and they are already great against the run (third in the league).  This is especially staggering considering they have been so awful this year and have faced offenses that have been conserving leads late in games.  Look for McGahee and Moreno to have very quiet weeks as Miami and everyone else watches to see if Timmy can beat them.

Knowshon Moreno Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 45 total yards

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Seven:

• Adrian Peterson – Green Bay is great against the run…and might be up by 60 points in the first quarter.  Just think about it.
• Rams’ Running Backs – Dallas is #1 against the run…and could be playing with a lead for most of the game.
• Jonathan Stewart – Washington’s defense is solid all over, and Stewart will be left out of the mix this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

First off, just so we’re clear: DO NOT SIT ADRIAN PETERSON. Okay? Under no circumstances does this guy ever come out of your lineup. Is Green Bay a potentially troublesome matchup from a touch perspective? Sure. And are they good against the run? Yes, they’re pretty good. But this is ADRIAN PETERSON. Start him. Always.

Moving on now…

I would never tell anyone to sit Ray Rice, and you shouldn’t. But I am not nearly as bullish as Jon is considering the matchup. Jacksonville is many things, and most of them bad, but their defense is actually pretty good. Rice will find the going tougher than many might think.

As for Torain, I trusted him in Week 6 and he failed me. I still like him going forward, especially with the matchup this week, but just know that whenever you start a running back for Mike Shanahan you are taking on the risk of that running back getting benched for the hot hand. It’s just how it is. Still, Torain is probably a low-top 20 option this week.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer – Megatron

He will be mad after being shut out last week for the first time.  Plus, Atlanta is ATROCIOUS defending the pass (29th in the league for receiving defense).

Calvin Johnson Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 120 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Dwayne Bowe

He’s big, he’s strong, he’s rested, and he’s facing a terrible secondary.  Bowe won’t disappoint his owners in week 7.

Dwayne Bowe Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 130 receiving yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Seven:

• Mike Wallace – He’s a big play machine.
• Greg Jennings – He was left out of the shuffle a little bit last week.  Rodgers will get him involved again.
• Devin Hester – If the Bears run more 7 and 8 man protection schemes, they will have to utilize Hester more because he is one of their only receivers that is explosive enough to beat his man one on one.  Plus, he’s money in the return game.
• Pierre Garcon – His speed and size create matchup problems for the Saints.  Despite a huge drop, he killed them in the Super Bowl and he will do it again this week.

Projected Worst Performer – Mike Thomas

I almost feel bad for the guy.  His team is terrible, his QB is young (and possibly terrible), and he will be facing a tough Baltimore defense on national television.

Mike Thomas Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 4 catches for 30 yards.

Sit Em – Vincent Jackson

A little bit overrated…and facing Darrelle Revis.  Not a good combination.

Vincent Jackson Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 3 catches for 40 yards 

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Seven:

• Larry Fitzgerald – Dick LeBeau will make it his personal mission to ensure that Kolb won’t even have enough time to throw the ball up to Larry.
• Santonio Holmes – Rough week for Sanchez, the Jets’ offensive line, and in consequence, Mr. Holmes.
• Brandon Lloyd – Receivers don’t do much when they switch teams mid-season.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Yes, Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe should both off this week. Solid choices. However, I cannot tell people to sit Larry Fitzgerald. I know the matchup isn’t great and Kevin Kolb is a turd disguised as a franchise QB, but Fitzgerald remains one of the five most talented receivers in football. He can pop for two TDs any week. Play him.

I also am not a big fan of Brandon Lloyd for this week, but I do like him long-term. He is back with Josh McDaniels, and Sam Bradford has been yearning for a true #1 WR, a role that Lloyd can fill. Once Bradford gets healthy and the Rams’ schedule eases up, Lloyd could pay huge fantasy dividends. Buy low, and buy now.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer – Jimmy Graham

He might go for 400 yards against the Colts’ defense.

Jimmy Graham Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 110 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Fred Davis

Look for whoever is playing QB for Washington to check down often and look for Davis on safe, quick passes all day.

Fred Davis Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 8 catches for 95 receiving yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘Em Picks at TE for Week Seven:

• Tony Gonzalez – Matt Ryan will look Tony’s way against the Detroit Defensive Line.
• Greg Olsen – Cam Newton loves him, and he will be one of the only guys that has a good game against the ‘Skins.

Projected Worst Performer – Visanthe Shiancoe

Not a good matchup against Green Bay’s linebackers.

Visanthe Shiancoe Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 2 catches for 20 yards

Sit Em – Dustin Keller

Once again, it’s very hard to choose a TE that will play poorly when most of them seem to be playing so well, but I think Keller and the rest of the Jets’ offense will have a rough game against San Diego.

Dustin Keller Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 4 catches for 50 yards.

Jerod’s thoughts:

It’s very hard to quibble with any of these picks. Jimmy Graham has a ridiculous four straight games with 100 yards receiving or more. That is insane. And despite injuring his coach in Week 6, I’m sure Drew Brees will continue targeting him incessantly this week and beyond. He’s the clear #1 tight end in football right now.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em D/ST

[Editor's note: As always, the D/ST picks are written by Jerod, not Jon.]

Start Em D/ST: Dallas Cowboys

Do you realize the Cowboys D is owned in only 47% of Yahoo leagues? Wow. When was the last time anything associated with the Cowboys was underrated? Folks, you can forget about the porous unit from last year. Rob Ryan has done wonders with this year’s Cowboys. Anchored by the spectacular Demarcus Ware and the emerging Sean Lee, the 2011 Cowboys D is solid. They also have a great matchup in Week 7 against St. Louis. Pick up and start.

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 7:

• The New Orleans Saints defense hasn’t been great this year, but I like a blitz-happy D against the Colts’ Curtis Painter.
• Tim Tebow makes his first start of the season in Week 7. Considering his throwing deficiencies, the Dolphins aren’t a terrible option if the bye week has you desperate.

Sit Em D/ST: Minnesota Vikings

I recommended the Vikings D to a few people last week, thinking they’d have a field day against the Bears’ terrible O-line, but I was proven horribly wrong. So let me state the obvious to make amends: you don’t want to start the Vikings’ D against Aaron Rodgers and the Pack.

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 7:

• The Jets’ D has been shaky this year – don’t let their strong performance against Matt Moore and the Dolphins fool you. Facing Phil Rivers and the Chargers, who are coming off a bye and should have Antonio Gates back, could be trouble for Rex Ryan’s crew.

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That’s all we’ve got for you this week folks. Pose your questions in the comment section and we’ll be here all week to answer. Good luck in Week 7!

Don’t miss the rest of our Week 7 Fantasy Football coverage:

• Week 7 Waiver Wire Advice

Also, don’t forget that if your NFL fantasy team is struggling, or you’re just getting bored with the NFL, our friends over at Daily Joust over weekly college fantasy football games with real money prizes at stake. Check them out:

Andre Johnson is gone.  Ben Roethlisberger is banged up.  Miles Austin is on the mend.  Marques Colston is back, but when will he get on track?

With the bye weeks now here, the time has come when fantasy leagues are truly won and lost.  If you drafted well, and got a little lucky, you should be near the top of the standings.  But nobody can ever completely escape the injury bug.  Managing your lineup properly when byes and injuries attack is what separates the good owners from the great ones.

So let’s look at the Week Five games and decide who to start and who to sit this week.

As always, let’s briefly recap last week’s picks just to see how we did.

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Week Four Recap

Overall – 29 for 47 (62%)

Best Player Predictions: 2 for 4

• Hits: Megatron and Rob Gronkowski
• Misses: Matt Stafford and Adrian Peterson

Start Em Predictions: 2 for 4

• Hits: BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Greg Olsen
• Misses: Ben Roethlisberger and Plaxico Burress (Thanks a lot…Sanchez…)

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 12 for 16

• Hits: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Matt Hasselbeck, Fred Jackson, Michael Turner, Brandon Jacobs, AJ Green, Wes Welker, Roddy White, Jimmy Graham, Jermaine Gresham, and Tony Gonzalez
• Misses: Jay Cutler, Jahvid Best, Reggie Wayne, and Jermichael Finley.

Worst Player Predictions: 0 for 4

• Misses: Kyle Orton, Texans’ Running Backs (HUGE MISS…sorry guys), Sidney Rice, and Owen Daniels

Sit Em Predictions: 1 for 4

• Hits: Joe Flacco
• Misses: Ray Rice (Never will I ever doubt him again), Dwayne Bowe, and Vernon Davis

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 12 for 15

• Hits: Matt Cassel, Blaine Gabbert, Matt Schaub, Chad Henne, Daniel Thomas, James Starks, Cowboys’ Running Backs, Chad Ochocinco, Jeremy Maclin, Anquan Boldin, Heath Miller, and Kellen Winslow
• Misses: Denver Running Backs, Steve Smith 1.0, and Benjamin Watson

And now onto the Week 5 start em, sit em picks.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit Em Projections

One brief change this week:

As you know, Jerod did the Start/Sit column the last two years before handing the keys to me this year. He still edits the column before it’s posted though, and helps out in the comment section answering questions throughout the week. And while we agree on the majority of these picks, there are some spots where we differ, and we think it will add value to the column to have him chime in with alternate viewpoints when he has them.

So at the end of each position section, you’ll see a blockquote with Jerod’s quick-hit thoughts on the picks, especially any he strongly disagrees with. As always when it comes to our fantasy advice, MSF is an ego-free zone where helping readers put the best possible lineup together is the goal. This is just one more way we can work together to do that.

Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 5:

• Cleveland
• Dallas
• St. Louis
• Miami
• Washington
• Baltimore

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Quarterbacks 

Projected Best Performer – Michael Vick

Vick started to look like the Vick of last season on Sunday, and his team still got the loss.  Buffalo’s secondary leaves a lot to be desired, as they have been torched by several teams already this season.  Look for Vick to try and put the Eagles on his shoulders as they travel to Buffalo trying to save their season.  The Eagles may not win, but Vick should have a MONSTER day.

Michael Vick Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 380 passing yards, 3 TDs and 1INT; 85 rushing yards, 1 TD

Start Em – Philip Rivers

I almost feel like this is cheating, but Rivers is only ranked 14th among fantasy quarterbacks.  Look for him to start moving up the charts this week in Denver.

Philip Rivers Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 350 yards, 3 TDs

Other Guys I Like:

• Eli Manning – At home against Seattle.
• Drew Brees – On the road in Carolina.
• Curtis Painter – Played well in his debut, and will be doing his best against the Chiefs to make sure the Colts don’t finish with the worst record in the league.
• Mark Sanchez – The Pats’ defense is beyond banged up right now…and they weren’t all that good to begin with – especially against the pass.

Projected Worst Performer – Cam Newton

No, this is not one of those “He can’t really be this good!  He’s going to fail eventually!” picks… I have actually been very impressed by the youngster so far this year.  Unfortunately, the Saints’ defense will be unlike anything he has played so far.  The Packers were definitely a better defense, but they played very vanilla against him.  He has never faced a defense that will attack him like New Orleans will this Sunday.  I think Newton will go on to have a very good season, but not this week against New Orleans.

Cam Newton Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 180 passing yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs; 45 rushing yards, 2 fumbles

Sit Em – Tom Brady

Just hear me out.  Obviously, if you have Tom Brady, you probably don’t have a reliable backup.  That’s ok.  He could still get you 15 to 18 fantasy points this week.  However, if you are in a small league, and you were able to pick up someone like Matt Stafford as a backup, you should look very seriously at benching Brady this week, and it has everything to do with the Patriots’ Week 5 opponent and Brady’s checkered history against them.

The Jets have one of the best passing defenses in the league, and Darrelle Revis will be able to shut down Wes Welker better than anyone else in the league.  That leaves Brady with only Rob Gronkowski as a legitimate weapon all day, and the Jets will be licking their chops to rush Brady if New England only has five guys protecting him.

Plus, consider Brady’s last five starts against the Jets:

• 2010 Playoffs: 299 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
• 2010 Week 2: 248 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
• 2010 Week 13: 326 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INT
• 2009 Week 11: 310 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
• 2009 Week 2: 216 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

Based on the averages, Brady will still throw for 250 yards, and may even have a few TDs…and of course he has the potential to throw a 4 TD gem against anyone…but the Jets have also proven that more often than not they at least pull Brady back to the pack; thus, there could definitely be much better options than him for your lineup this week.

Tom Brady Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 250 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• Ben Roethlisberger – The Steelers are just bad, and he’s banged up.
• Donovan McNabb – I’m just trying to pad my stats for next week…
• Matt Ryan – They might lose by 50 points to Green Bay.
• Jay Cutler – Detroit’s defensive line will make him dance by the second quarter.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Everything here sounds reasonable, including Jon’s thoughts on Brady (who I’d still start though, personally), but I disagree on Matt Ryan. He and the Falcons offense are much better at home and in domes, and the Green Bay defense is giving up a lot through the air. I say start Ryan. He’s a top 10 QB this week.

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Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Running Backs

Projected Best Performer – Maurice Jones-Drew

Jacksonville is just awful, and they will ride Mo-Joe until he falls over in the second quarter during week 8.  I feel bad for the guy, having his prime ruined on lousy teams.  Fortunately, his fantasy owners will make good – especially this week against Cincinnati.

Maurice Jones-Drew Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 180 yards, 1 TD; 80 yards receiving

Start Em – Joseph Addai

He’s quietly had a pretty decent year, despite all of the upheaval in Indy.  The Colts’ offense should move a little more fluidly with Curtis Painter as well.  To top that off, Indy will be playing Kansas City in a game that the Colts foolishly think they need to win.  Colts’ fans will watch in horror as Indy ruins their chances at Andrew Luck.

Joseph Addai Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 135 yards, 1 TD; 45 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other Guys I Like

• Darren Sproles – He’s just so fast…and Carolina’s LBs are hurt.
• LeGarrette Blount – San Francisco is actually sneaky decent…Tampa Bay will be forced to grind it out more than normal.
• LaDainian Tomlinson – He might have 150 yards receiving against the Pats.
• Mike Tolbert – Playing Denver…enough said.

Projected Worst Performer – Rashard Mendenhall

He’s awful, and Tennessee is good.

Rashard Mendenhall Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 10 yards rushing

Sit Em – Michael Turner

Remember the last time Green Bay played Atlanta, on that fast turf, indoors, and jumped out to a huge lead, and rendered Michael Turner unusable against a defensive line that was already amazing at stuffing the run?  Oh.  Me neither…

Michael Turner Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 25 yards rushing; 15 yards receiving

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• Shonn Greene – Not a great matchup against NE.
• BJGE – Pats won’t have a good day on offense.
• James Starks – The Packers don’t run the ball…and they don’t need to.
• Matt Forte – Detroit’s defensive line will make him cry by the second quarter.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Joseph Addai has been surprisingly effective this season, and I like him as a flex option this week, perhaps even over Mendenhall (who I’m growing to hate), but I personally would not start him over Michael Turner. I know the Packers held him down in the playoffs last year, but in Week 12 of 2010 he had over 100 yards and a TD against Green Bay in the Georgia Dome, and Green Bay’s defense is not nearly as good this year. Hell, let me just say it: I like everyone in the Packers-Falcons game, and with Turner averaging 4.6 yards per carry this year, I can’t recommend sitting him.

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Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer – Megatron

I will continue to pick him every week until he becomes human.

Calvin Johnson Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 8 catches for 120 yards and 3 TDs.

Start Em – Deion Branch

If the Jets do what I think they will do, I think Branch will have a breakout game of sorts.  Look for Gronkowski and Welker to be neutralized, and Branch to have a pretty decent game.

Deion Branch Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 7 catches for 90 yards and 1 TD.

Other Guys I Like

• Reggie Wayne – Got a lot of targets last week with Painter, and should have a favorable matchup against anyone on KC.
• Hakeem Nicks – Huge game for him.
• AJ Green – He’s unbelievable…I keep telling you.
• Devery Henderson – Despite registering zero catches last week, Carolina won’t be able to stay in front of him and Henderson will bounce back.

Projected Worst Performer – David Nelson

Nnamdi Asomugha finally justifies the money that was spent on him this summer.

David Nelson Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 4 catches for 30 yards.

Sit Em – Pierre Garcon

Don’t chase TDs!  He only had two catches on Monday Night, and although they ended up being two giant home runs, he only caught the ball one-fourth of the time it was thrown to him.  Believe me, this is hard for me to say, because Pierre is my favorite player.  I may or may not have spent more than 100 bucks on a Super Bowl jersey with his name and number that ended up being a curse against the Saints.  Either way, don’t be fooled by his “big game” against Tampa.  He’s hit or miss…and this week is a miss.

Pierre Garcon Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 0 catches

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• Wes Welker – Bad game by his standards.
• Victor Cruz – Stop drinking the Cruz kool-aid…right now…at least for one more week.
• Steve Smith 1.0 – Tough game for Newton and the Panthers.
• Jacoby Jones – Don’t be fooled…he won’t have a break out game, no matter who is hurt on his team.

Jerod’s Thoughts:

So long as people make sure to still start Wes Welker – because you can’t sit him right now – I’m fine with him being in Jon’s dislike section. I also agree on Garcon. Don’t overreact to one big week and a couple of fluky touchdowns. As for Nelson, the question is who will Nnamdi cover? The Eagles play a lot of zone, which has been part of their secondary’s downfall since they have a lot of good cover corners. And I agree on Branch. I thought he’d bounce back last week, but I think it comes this week with one of Brady’s favorite all-time targets getting the 3rd or 4th best cover option on the Jets.

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Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer – Jermaine Gresham

He’s really good and the Jaguars are really bad.

Jermaine Gresham Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection: 7 catches for 120 yards and 1 TD.

Start Em – Brandon Pettigrew

I watched, first hand, two weeks ago as the Chicago Bears proved they couldn’t guard tight ends and Jermichael Finley went off.  Look for Pettigrew to have a big day in a huge Monday Night Football game that the city of Detroit deserves.

Brandon Pettigrew Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 5 catches for 130 yards and 1 TD

Other Guys I Like

• Greg Olsen – Cam Newton’s security blanket all game against the blitzing Saints.
• Dallas Clark – Let’s just hook everybody up the the Curtis Painter rejuvenation machine!
• Owen Daniels – He’s the guy that will get more looks with Andre Johnson being out.
• Scott Chandler – I know I always say not to chase TDs…but I think he grabs one or two this week.

Projected Worst Performer – Heath Miller

When Tight Ends lose it…they LOSE it…and Heath Miller has lost it.

Heath Miller Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 1 catch for 8 yard

Sit Em – Vernon Davis

Tampa Bay did a great job of locking down Dallas Clark, and they should have similar success against the 49ers.

Vernon Davis Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 4 catches for 40 yards

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• I originally picked Jimmy Graham, but as I thought about it, I started to have second thoughts.  Then, I read Jerod’s thoughts below, and completely agreed.  There really aren’t any of the big name tight ends that I dislike this week…so I am sticking to Davis and these other two guys.
• Jeff King – Rough day for Arizona
• Jeremy Shockey – One get enough looks against New Orleans.

Jerod’s thoughts:

First off, you can’t sit Jimmy Graham. Sorry Jon, but I disagree here strongly. He hasn’t caught fewer than four passes this year and he’s had over 100 yards the last two weeks. He’s also scored three times. The reality is that Graham, not Colston, not Meachem, not Moore, not Henderson, is Drew Brees’ #1 target right now. Also, I’d think long and hard before sitting Vernon Davis. Alex Smith gained a lot of confidence last week, and Davis remains the best receiving threat on the team. If you’re going to sit him, make sure it’s for someone the caliber of Gronkowski, Pettigrew, or Graham. Remember: talent usually wins out over time, and few tight ends are as talented as Vernon Davis.

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As always, feel free to ask your questions in the comment section and I will do my best to respond.  Or, you can send them to me on twitter anytime: @The_Dr_Twitch.