NFL Quarterback Power Rankings

No position in the NFL is more highly scrutinized, debated, and discussed than the quarterback. It’s impossible to build a consistent winner without one (and people who follow the Cleveland Browns would tell you that it’s impossible to find one period).

After this weekend’s Packers loss to the Bucs, Aaron Rodgers was a popular topic of conversation on Twitter. I made the comment that he has not shown me that he has the “it” that people always talk about when it comes to QBs. Some agreed and some disagreed, but it got me thinking about where Rodgers falls in relation to today’s crop of QBs.

Thus, I set out to rank the quarterbacks currently holding starting NFL gigs, taking into account their current age and skill level, future potential, past accomplishments, and the general confidence level I would have if that player was the QB of my team.

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Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice and Projections

Looking back at my Week 3 Start Em, Sit Em post as I begin Week 4’s, and it was a pretty solid week.

The definite hits: Derrick Mason (start), Brent Celek (start), Denver D (start), Carson Palmer (sit), Ben Watson (sit), Donnie Avery (sit).

The definite misses: Trent Edwards (start), Dallas D (sit).

The ones I predicted relatively well but touchdowns (or lack thereof) skewed value: Steve Slaton (start), Cedric Benson (sit).

All in all, a pretty solid week, and hopefully most of the 157 comments on that post led to sound fantasy decision making for everyone.

And now, it’s time to do it all over again.

As we pointed out in our recently posted NFL Week 4 TV schedule, odds, and picks post, the following teams all have byes this weekend: Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Philadelphia Eagles. Obviously keep that in mind when you’re setting your lineups.

And remember: I’m trying to avoid the obvious choices here and instead pinpoint guys that folks might be on the fence about. And as we do every week, I will do my absolute best to answer every question that comes through in the comment section.

[Editor's Note: At some point in the not-to-distant future, MSF will be holding special, "members-only" Sunday morning live chats to help you out with all of your last minute fantasy football decision making. We are going to be hosting these sessions at our new MSF community at Explodium.com.

I'll be writing a post at some point soon telling you about Explodium, but it's pretty badass. When you click on the link, you do have to sign up, but it's free...and trust me, the benefits are there well beyond our Sunday morning fantasy help.]

Now, onto the Week 4 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks:

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PHOTD: Philip Rivers Signs Contract Extension, Smiles With Gleeful Madness

While KVB is doling out legit gems like his rankings of the Big Ten football stadiums, and AJ is getting actual quotes (real journalism! Yes!) from the San Diego Padres scouting department on the greatness of Chris Carpenter, yours truly — the supposed “Managing Editor” of this Midwestern blogging disaster experiment — is doing things like writing this post, which will do nothing to make you a smarter or more well-informed sports fan.

But hopefully it will make you laugh.

Ladies and gentleman, I present to you the first edition of a new feature that may or may not ever return to the site. It is called PHOTD, which stands for Photo Hilarity of the Day, and I settled on that acronym because when you sounds the letters out together it sounds like someone from the East Coast saying “farted.” Yes, I’m immature like that.

And in honor of Philip Rivers getting his gargantuan new contract, I am posting the picture below, which made me laugh out loud when I happened upon it while browsing the Sports by Brooks morning Speed Read earlier today. Enjoy.

By the way, here are the details on that new Philip Rivers contract according to PFT (quoting ESPN’s Len Pasquarelli): 6 years, $92 million, with $38-39 guaranteed. So something tells me Sir Philip will have 38-39 million reasons not to care that we are mocking the hilarious picture above.

Besides, it’s not like the above picture is the only one out there of Philip Rivers with a funny expression on his face. Here are the runners-up for today’s PHOTD:

But hey, at least for the upstanding, non-nonsense, family-man QB of the Chargers (who I really, really like as a player, by the way) there isn’t a photo like this floating around…

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* – Philip Rivers screaming photo credit: Hugging Harold Reynolds

* – Philip Rivers weird lip face photo credit: Mouthpiece Sports

* – Philip Rivers wearing hat photo credit: ESPN via The Cubs Brickyard

* – Philip Rivers confused photo credit: The Sporting Blog

* – Eli Manning drunk photo credit: OddJack.com

ESPN’s Current Top 10 Fantasy Football Players: Over or Under

Yes, not long now before every fantasy football nut is tearing apart the Internet and those extremely overpriced magazines to help them decide who to draft, when, where, why and how!  This year I am at a disadvantage, as I am passing on my knowledge to all of you.  My competition in the Midwest Sports Fans Fantasy Football League will be able to gain insight into my strategies and opinions, which for the most part are nails, and use that against me. 

Oh well, it is what it is, and you will still see me in the Super Bowl.

[Editor's Note: Kurt's trash talk has been left in, unedited, because...well...we all need a good laugh every now and then.]

Onto ESPN’s current Fantasy Football Top 10 players based on their projected 2009 stats through their point scoring system, and whether or not I think each player will over- or under-perform the projections.

T-1.  Tom Brady, QB, Patriots (288 Points)  OVER!!!  Even though I think that New England will run more this year than any of their previous three years, you have to have faith in the quarterback with the most prolific statistical passing year ever, which was only two years ago.  Brady has more weapons now than he did then, including a better running game then ever before.  The Patriots will, however, run more for two reasons.  First, to keep the defense honest and avoid heavy blitzes intended to either make Brady a non-factor, or remove him all together from the game.  Secondly, to remove some pressure from the offensive line in having to protect the greatest quarterback ever 40 to 50 times a game.  If healthy, Brady will have another 300 plus point season.  He is my number 1 overall pick.

T-1.  Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (288 Points)  Rodgers tied with Brady?  Under, but not by much.  Compare Rodgers’ weapons with Brady’s… that’s right, you can’t.  There should be no tie here.  Although Rodgers finished second among QB’s last year with 286 ESPN fantasy football points, the Packers will have to establish the run this year to win games.  Establishing the run is not only a quarterback’s best friend, but the defense’s as well.  Ground and pound eats minutes off of the clock, allowing the defensive personnel time to recover in between possessions.  There are several other QB’s that I would take over Rodgers this year.

3.  Drew Brees, QB, Saints (287 Points)  Over, and over Rodgers in my opinion.  Brees was the #1 QB last year with 311 fantasy points.  I don’t see him beating last year’s numbers, but Brees has been an owner’s best friend since landing in N.O.  I do, however, have a somewhat bad feeling on Brees this year.  Look back on all of the previous fantasy gods who posted incredible numbers over the past few years.  Brady, Peyton Manning, Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Kurt Warner and on and on.  What do they all have in common?  After posting god-like statistical years, they came back and posted subpar years, if they played at all.  All of these players suffered from injuries or reduced effectivness the year following their epic years.  He should still be very, very good…but will Brees be added to the aforementioned list as a 2009 letdown?

4.  Peyton Manning, QB, Colts (277 Points) Under!  I may eat my words on this one, but there are too many intangibles that make me see it this way.  Manning finished sixth among QB’s last year with 253 points.  You cannot tell me that he will have a better year than last after losing Tony Dungy as his head coach and losing Marvin Harrison, his record setting wide receiver for over a decade.  Not to mention, the loss of Harrison will place more pressure on Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez.  Wayne often made double team attempts look stupid last year, but Gonzalez’s stats suffered when he was not burning slow safties out of the slot position.  And will Joseph Addai return to his 2007 form?  He must improve upon last year’s numbers to help Manning.  Peyton Manning is the smartest quarterback in the league, but is he smart enough to make up for all of these key losses?  Time will tell.

5.  Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings (272 Points)  Push.  Peterson, even with injuries, finished third among RBs last year with 237 points.  Their offense will be more productive this year regardless who is at QB. Farve, Jackson or Rosenfels will be able to produce in this offense, which will open up the door for A Pete.  I take Peterson after Brady and Brees.

6.  Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars (252 Points) Under.  There are questions surrounding MJD now that he has no Fred Taylor to spell him.  They formed a great 1-2 punch, and Jones-Drew has flourished in his role as a change-of-pace back.  Also, will David Garrard return to 2007 form?  If the box is stacked on MJD, he will not be successful.  Will he still be on special teams?  If so, the physical toll could hurt him offensively as the season goes along.  I would take several backs over MJD, starting with Michael Turner.

7.  Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals (250 Points)  Under.  Warner had 265 fantasy points last year.  At 38 years old, can he repeat that this year?  I think not.  At some point, Matt Lienhart will have to see the field become an actual NFL QB (he already has the salary and ego) and earn his ridiculous paycheck.  More importantly, can Warner stay healthy for a full season?  Will Arizona ever figure out how to run the ball?  Edgerrin James looked incredible on the ground in the playoffs, but that was to prove a point.  Without him on the roster, will they ever get more than .2 yards per carry out of touchdown monster Tim Hightower?  I avoid Kurt Warner in the first three rounds this year for these reasons.

8.  Matt Cassel, QB, Cheifs (247 points)  UNDER, UNDER, UNDER.  Have you lost your minds?  He scored 238 points last year with more weapons than a naval ship…more nukes than North Korea!  How can anyone possibly score more points on what has been a dismal Kansas City offense?  Cassell will make them better, and Dwayne Bowe’s stock goes way up with his addition, but New England’s offensive talent versus Kansas City’s talent, not to mention offensive line comparisons, is like comparing….well, never mind.  You get the picture.

T-9.  LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers (246 Points)  Push.  I take several players over LT, including the other two that ESPN had him tied with, just because they both have a greater upside than LT.  I do think he will benefit from Sproles getting more carries, as this combo could mirror the one-two punch that the Titans and Jaguars displayed last year.  LT only had 216 fantasy points last year, and even though his best years are behind him, if healthy, LT is still a top-5 running back.

T-9.  Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (246 Points)  Over.  Romo had 208 fantasy points last year while missing 4 games.  Romo lost a migraine when T.O. landed in Buffalo, and still his a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball.  Romo is in my top 10, and much higher than number 9.  Romo rebounds after the Terrell Owens brick!

T-9.  Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers (246 Points)  Push.  Rivers had 279 points last year, and benefited greatly from the Chargers’ inability to run the ball.  This will not be the case this year, and ESPN adjusted his numbers accordingly.  Rivers is still a no brainer though if available in the first round.

There was ESPN’s top 10 (11).  I am lost as to how Michael Turner and Jay Cutler were left off of this list.  And more importantly, how ESPN has David Garrard at #17.  There are at least 60 players I would take over Garrard.  I will say this about Garrard: he must produce this year to save his head coach’s job, now two years removed from his punting on long time starter Byron Leftwich.  Jack Del Rio may be sent packing if the Jags do not find themselves playing in late January. 

Getting back on track, Michael Turner is an absolute beast, and is arguably the best back in the NFL going into this season.  And Jay Cutler is going to play with such a large chip on his shoulder, he will only make those around him better, and has something he did not have in Denver: talented tight ends!

Want more info to follow heading into and throughout the season, I am now on facebook and twitter.

http://twitter.com/fraschettik

http://www.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/profootball.insight

Kurt Fraschetti

Senior Fantasy Football Writer-MidwestSportsFans.com

Colts-Chargers Wild Card Preview, Prediction, and Injury Updates

Wild Card weekend is upon us, with four games to try to satiate America’s insatiable appetite for the NFL. (Follow the think for a breakdown of the TV schedules, announcer lineups, and point spreads of each game this weekend.)

There is one clear marquee matchup this weekend though, and it will take place Saturday night at 8:00 in San Diego, California when the Indianapolis Colts take on the San Diego Chargers.

Why is this game the marquee matchup of the weekend?

1. These are the two hottest teams in the NFL. The Colts started 3-4 and then won 9 straight to finish 12-4 and capture the Wild Card. The Chargers started 4-8 and then reeled off four straight wins to finish 8-8 and win the AFC West. That’s 13 straight victories between the two, and proof that I have elementary math skills.
2. The game features superstars on both sides of the ball for each team. Peyton Manning is now a three-time MVP winner, while the Chargers have a former MVP of their own in LaDainian Tomlinson. Bob Sanders is a former NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Philip Rivers rubs some people the wrong way, but has had an outstanding season. Antonio Gates, Antonio Cromartie, Reggie Wayne, Dwight Freeney…yeah, there are stars all over the field.
3. The Colts and Chargers have a history of playing great, meaningful games against eachother in both the regular season and the playoffs. Earlier this season, the Colts beat the Chargers 23-20 in a game that helped turn the Colts season around. They have played three times in the last two seasons, and each game has been decided by four points or less.
4. It is possible that this could be Tony Dungy’s last game on an NFL sideline if the Colts fall short Saturday night.

There are plenty more reasons, but there is no need to state the obvious any more. Everyone knows that this will be the best game of the weekend, and I can’t wait to park myself on the couch and watch it Saturday night.

If you are looking for some solid analysis of the game, here are a few relevant links for you:

USA TODAY Colts-Chargers Preview and Prediction

Scouts, Inc Colts-Chargers Preview and Prediction

Stampede Blue – a great source for up-to-the-minute Colts news and notes

Now, let’s discuss for a minute one of the most important factors leading up to this game: injuries. The Colts have been hampered by injuries all season long, but are relatively healthy heading into this game. Oft-injured superstar SS Bob Sanders will play, as will RB Joseph Addai, although he only has one carry over the last three weeks. As of right now, only Gary Brackett is listed as out on the injury report. CB Keiwan Ratliff is questionable, but participated fully in the most recent practice.

On the San Diego side, the injury outlook is a little less clear and positive. Both Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson are questionable as of the most recent updates on the injury report. According to ProFootballTalk.com, they both have a 50-50 chance of playing. Obviously, the availability of stars like Tomlinson and Gates will have a huge impact on the game.

(Update: Just heard John Clayton say on ESPN that Tomlinson should be able to play, despite not practicing all week. Antonio Gates, however, is “more questionable.” Norv Turner was reportedly more pessimistic after the most recent practice and Gates will be a game-time decision.)

Now let’s get down to the nitty-gritty. It’s prediction time. I will come right out and say that I think the Colts are winning this game. Who do you think will win?

Who will win Saturday night's Wild Card Playoff game between the Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers?

• Indianapolis Colts
• San Diego Chargers

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Here are my reasons for liking the Colts on Saturday night:

1. The Colts’ superstars are healthier. Playoff games are won by stars, and with Tomlinson and Gates hindered, it is a huge advantage to a Colts team that has gotten healthy at just the right time.
2. Who do you have more confidence in: Tony Dungy or Norv Turner? I thought so.
3. Who do you have more confidence in: Peyton Manning or Philip Rivers? I thought so. (And let me just say, this is no disrespect to Philip Rivers, who is proving to be an outstanding quarterback. But Peyton Manning won the MVP for a reason, and he has proven more in the postseason than Rivers.)
4. The Chargers are 3-7 against teams outside the AFC West. And remember, the AFC West sucks. If the Chargers were in any other AFC division, they most likely would not even be in the playoffs.

However, this is not going to be any type of cake walk for the Colts, regardless of whether Gates and Tomlinson play. Peyton Manning has always struggled against the Chargers defense, and the gap between Manning and Rivers is actually closer than you might think. Plus, you have to give San Diego a slight bump because of the homefield advantage.

Still, in close games, I always go with the coach and QB I trust more. And regardless of whether you think Manning or Rivers is playing better right now, I don’t think anyone can argue that Tony Dungy is a better coach, and specifically a better big-game coach, than Norv Turner. For that reason in particular, I’m taking the Colts.

Colts-Chargers Prediction:

Indianapolis Colts 31 | San Diego Chargers 30

(And this, of course, means that you should go run and put money on the Chargers. I would say that my success predicting games this year has been bad, but I don’t want to overstate my abilities.)

Enjoy the game everyone, and then get ready for the Dolphins to upset the Ravens on Sunday. It’s happening.

Sunday Night Football: Colts – Chargers Preview and Prediction

This post is from the regular season. Follow the link if you are looking for the Colts-Chargers Wild Card Playoff Game Preview, Prediction, and Injury Reports.

(Sunday morning update: Bob Sanders is out for Indianapolis, and did not make the trip to San Diego with the team.)

Over the last few years, few teams have given the Indianapolis Colts as many problems as the San Diego Chargers, who they face this weekend on Sunday Night Football. We all remember when the Chargers ended Indy’s win streak and quest for a perfect season two years ago, as well as two losses at their hands last year. Things should change this year.

The Colts have finally started putting it together of late. The running game has been efficient, and other than dropped passes, the Colts have moved the ball down the field through the air well. Peyton Manning has spread the ball around, and with Marvin Harrison finally showing signs of life, the Colts are running on all cylinders. Joseph Addai posted his first 100 yard rushing game since last year’s loss to the Patriots, and Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark continue to play well on the offensive side of the ball.

On defense, the Colts have only played marginally well, but have shown an ability to force turnovers when the game is on the line. They continue to give up nearly 140 rushing yards per game, but have held up fairly well in the red zone. This is all without their best defensive player.

Bob Sanders continues to miss games due to complications from off season knee surgery. In his place, Melvin Bullitt has started to make a name for himself; first with his special teams play, but lately as a great addition to the defense. The Colts defensive secondary has the most depth in the league, as they have been forced to play without their two starting cornerbacks and starting free safety for the last few games and are still in the top 10 in defending the pass. Dwight Freeney has helped this by returning to form with 7.0 sacks on the season, and Robert Mathis (5.0 sacks) will benefit from the fact that Freeney is playing better.

On the other side of the field for Sunday night’s game will be a very hungry Chargers team.

Led by Phillip Rivers, the Chargers have had to rely on their passing game more and more as LaDainian Tomlinson has struggled all season, rushing for only 686 yards and 5 touchdowns. Philip Rivers has thrown for 21 touchdowns (the same amount he had on the season last year), and has a 100.9 passer rating. Vincent Jackson has played well as their go-to receiver, while Chris Chambers has struggled to return to form after returning from injury.

Their defense has struggled after the early season loss of Shawne Merriman, who led their defense in sacks last year. Their lack of a pass rush without Merriman has allowed teams to throw for nearly 270 yards per game, worst in the league, and they have been only average against the run, allowing just more than 100 yards per game. This does not bode well for them going against a Colts team who is very good through the air and rushed the ball well with the return of Joseph Addai.

This is a must win game for the Chargers who are looking to turn their season around after a disappointing start to the year. They stand at 4-6 and second in their division. A win against the Colts would give them a lot of confidence going forward. The Colts need this game as well. The Titans are surprisingly running away with this division, and the Colts at 6-4 sit in the Wildcard spot right now. Expect both teams to play hard for this win, as both still have expectations for playing in January.

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My Sunday Night Football prediction: Tomlinson’s struggles on the ground are not because of any defenses he has played and will continue Sunday night. The Colts ability to force turnovers will keep the Chargers from putting six on the board more than once. Peyton Manning will have all day to throw and will have one of the biggest games of the year against a team the Colts are hungry to exact revenge on, even if it means hitting them while they’re down.

Colts 31, Chargers 16

[tags]san diego chargers, indianapolis colts, sunday night football, nfl[/tags]