I’m sad because the baseball season over, and with it, the beauty of summer and fall slowly disappear
as well. I’m also melancholy because I love baseball. It’s my favorite sport,  and in my view, by far the best sport on earth, as I’ve argued ad nausea for years on this site  and others.

Let me iterate that the 2011 postseason confirmed my views of baseball’s superiority to the other
major sports even more so.

Consider that Major League Baseball attendance rose during a recession, brought in more revenue than ever, and put out some of the highest-quality play in the game’s history during the past 30 days.

Sadly though, the national media can somehow ignore everything and obsessively focus on “TV ratings.” ESPN’s Colin Cowherd — who mocks the AGE of baseball fans, of all things –  is by far the worst offender, but even local Omaha radio was guilty yesterday.

An hour before Game 7 as I drove back from Chicago, the host said, “Well, baseball should finally get the nation’s attention tonight. Hope they don’t stink it up.”

I can’t enumerate how lazy, dishonest, yet expected this type of remark is, other than to say football,  especially the Cornhusker State’s beloved college ball, regularly sees blow outs or duds in “big games” that were hyped up enormously.  Yet no one mocks football before or condescends afterwards, whereas the hypocrisy of baseball bashers is legendary.

And whether or not the east coast and sports media (one in the same, really) unfairly covered the World Series is immaterial. Ratings were high overall (beat primetime NFL games twice; Game 7 was seen by more homes in DFW than any Cowboys Super Bowl), and we had a proud, historic franchise with baseball’s best fans take the title over a likable team now owning improbable back to back AL pennants, representing America’s most patriotic state.

It was awesome theatre, and neither of my favorite teams was close to postseason play. Does not matter. It’s baseball. And nothing in sports beats October  baseball.  One month before the final pitch from Jason  Motte, all the thrills started on a historically consequential  night.

And, as even Jeff  Passan, noted Yahoo curmudgeon opined,who cares about ratings?

“Baseball needs to stop apologizing for its poor TV ratings. They are the furthest thing from a
smudge on the game and where it has moved in today’s sporting  world.”

ESPN Radio’s banal Mike and Mike, who audaciously talked April NFL  Draft the morning of Game 6 of World Series and Eagles football the morning of Game 7, might care about viewing numbers — but most do not. Mature people, “old” people, know what the best game is. I suppose, being over 30, I’m old now too; but on the other hand, everyone under 30 I know loved every pitch the past four weeks.

Why?

The product for the last month was simply marvelous. And again, this began on Sept. 28, a night that was arguably the single greatest in the sport’s regular season history.

As for those errors that baseball critics, and fans of long-gone teams (Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox in particular) will allude to, Tim McCarver aptly noted yesterday on radio that baseball’s “imperfections”  make it the perfect sport. So true.

As Jerod Morris and I recapped on the eve of the World Series, in round one we had 19 of a possible 20
games, with two teams winning Game 5 on the road versus the two “best” teams — in the biased media’s eyes. Like 2010, the two teams (Yankees/Phillies) that spent the most money were therefore the putative favorites, but the beauty of baseball is there are NO favorites.

Baseball is truly the antithesis of college football where, yes, the two “best” teams arguably meet for the title, but that sport is a farce because teams’ seasons are rendered meaningless if not ranked by pundits in the top 10 in August, or when they lose their first game. Computers decide their fate.

The LCS in both leagues went six, and though some say it was sloppy or “too high scoring” (same critics who get bored in low scoring games) on the NL side, both were awesome. These were the best playoffs since 2003 or 2004, and in the long view, considering the 2011 Fall Classic went the distance, likely better.

The National League title bout had division rivals who despise each other, and the Texas-Detroit series, in hindsight, was actually one of the best and most competitive in years. Somehow this was also ignored by critics, just as baseball being the only affordable and safe professional sport a regular family can still afford, also is. Attendance won’t plummet anytime soon, Mr. Cowherd.

I’ll close by echoing where Passan culminated, but in my own words:

Give me a five month moratorium on the elite media’s cacophony about Major League baseball’s “declining television ratings.” Following the most compelling World Series in a decade, the overriding theme was that nobody watched?

Quoting Passan directly: “And to those people, all I have to say is: Sorry, suckers. You’re missing something great.”

38 of a possible 41 games, three one run game 5s in a 24-hour period to close round one, walk off wins,
unknown heroes, three one-run World Series tilts…andGame 6. Heck, even Bob Costas raved about
it. The Great Curt Schilling said Midwest fans, Midwest players, and Cardinal Baseball is everything that’s good about America, sports-wise. I can’t disagree.

Sadly, some people prefer to hate and espouse ignorance. For the rest of us, 112 days until pitchers and catchers report!

Throughout 2011, I posted  monthly updates on these “predictions,” so as to capriciously praise or condemn myself. Today, on the 1st of October with the playoffs upon us, I offer the final “results.”

Underrated

Miguel Cabrera

The definition of a superstar. He totally lived up to my remarks, and more importantly, still didn’t get enough national love  in 2011.

The 28 year-old won the batting title with a robust .344 average, finished 2nd in walks, OPS and Top 10 in every other relevant offensive category.  As a bonus, in this era of Ryan Howard, Drew Stubbs, Curtis Granderson and Adam Dunn, only 89 strikeouts in 161 games.

That’s what makes a great ballplayer: consistently good all around. And still, few notice him amongst the Jose Bautistas, Paul Konerkos, Adrian Gonzalezes, Mark Teixeiras, Robinson Canos and Jacoby Ellsburys of the AL world who garner our attention. Already off to a hot start in the playoffs, Cabrera’s a legit MVP contender again. In fact, he’d get my vote.

{Grade on my prediction: A+ }

Paul Konerko

.300, 30+ HRs, 100 + RBIs. Period. Need more be said? (And that included a rough September where he struggled alongside the whole team’s concurrent collapse.)

Pauly continues to be under-appreciated, and though I dislike the ChiSox, I will keep praising Paul  — because there are people who actually think Ryan Howard is a better player, despite Konerko being better in nearly every category, and by a long shot in some.

Howard will never get 2000 hits, and 400 HRs is questionable. Konerko, just three years older than the Philly first baseman, has the former, and will achieve the latter in April 2012. And unlike Howard and most others, the White Sox first baseman somehow gets better with age.  He was in the AL Top 10 in nearly all major offensive categories.

{Grade: A}

Adam Dunn:

I often compare the media love for Ryan Howard to Adam Dunn, as I feel they’re similar players (same age, same style, etc), but if I’m to call out Ryan, Adam needs the same treatment.

You can’t spin this anymore now than you could at any juncture this season: he was a disaster! 

Adam hit .159 in 122 games this season, with just 11 homers and 42 RBIs. He would have probably led the league in strikeouts (177) but was benched most of the final six weeks. Dunn was a startling 6 for 94 versus left-handed pitching in 2011. Yes, that’s a .064 clip! {Grade: F}

Ryan Zimmerman and Shin Soo-Choo missed too much time for evaluation in 2011. Zimmerman hit near.300, and Choo, in half a season marred by various ailments, managed eight homers and 36 RBIs overall, with a .340 batting average in limited time post All Star break.

Overrated:

Ryan Howard:

The “centerpiece” of my article was the Phillies’ big first baseman, who’s been at the top of my list (and emails, texts and tweets) of overhyped ballplayers for years. I saw absolutely nothing in 2011 to change my mind; in fact, no matter what ESPN or the media says or ignores, I’m more confident in my views than ever.

There was a devastating critique of Howard’s absurd $25 million/year salary and declining stats in Yahoo Sports back in July, hitting every angle statistically and factually. While some commenters applauded, most ignored the content and chose to call the writer names and use profanity. It was classic to read his backers getting so flummoxed.

Then, in mid-August, Baseball Reference exposed his supporters’ one reasonable claim: RBIs. They showed that given Ryan’s unmatched opportunities with men on base, about 20 other guys (including JJ Hardy and Michael Morse) would’ve had as many or more RBIs than Howard (who had 95 then, and only knocked in 21 during the season’s final six weeks). He truly lives a blessed life, having nearly 20 at bats per season with the bases loaded.

Though his RBI and home run numbers remained relatively high, vital categories (and overall power categories like slugging, OPS and OBP) continue to fall precipitously, while Howard’s strikeouts remained 2nd in the National League (a hideous 172 in 152 games).

Ryan hit just THREE homers off a lefty in 170 at bats this season, and no clutch hits that anyone can recall.

Howard’s 2011 OPS — the most relevant category for a power guy — was an abysmal 19th in the NL. Despite his power numbers, he was also still a distant 19th in Slugging, while his On Base Percentage didn’t even crack the top 30 on the Senior Circuit. Very telling.

Unless you’re looking for a player on the back-end of his career; less durable than in the past; is quite replaceable; who doesn’t get on base enough; whiffs a lot; is slow; suspect with the glove, but will get you 30 HRs with 100 RBIs and a .250 average, he’s not your man.

And despite a homer in Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday — that his desperate fans and obsequious media treated with more excitement than George Washington crossing the Delaware — look for the decline to continue in 2012 and beyond — as his salary rises to nearly the top of baseball. What a bad joke.

(I won’t get into past postseason futility since I covered it last fall and, starting late in last night’s game, you’re seeing it again. In the 2011 playoffs, Howard’s had a cumulative 13 men on base in his first six at bats. Considering that, his six RBIs is understandable.)

{Grade on my prediction that Howard is overrated: A}

Carlos Pena:

The Cubs first baseman hit 28 bombs, but that’s around his career average. He still finished at his customary .225 and a putrid .133 off lefties; yet this overpaid 33-year old is a lifetime .239 hitter, so what do we expect? Losing player, losing teams. He doesn’t strikeout quite as much as Howard or Dunn (still had 161 in 153 games though), but that proves little. He’s still vastly overrated, and his signing didn’t help the Cubs one iota.

{Grade: A}

BJ Upton:

Upton rightly doesn’t get the love he once received, but still, when you think of the Rays, after Longoria, BJ’s name comes up. Why?  You like .240 hitters who strikeout WAY too much (5th in AL, 161 in 153 games), with mediocre power and bad attitudes? He had a nice September, and Tampa will need him in October, but until his average improves…

{Grade: A-}

Jeff Francoeur:

Jeff’s finished at .285/20/87, which is mighty impressive. He was part of the best defensive outfield in baseball this year — in terms of throwing out baserunners (second best in MLB history).

He’s not an old player (27), so KC expected him to produce, which is why they extended him through 2013 . Coupled with Gordon, Cabrera, Hosmer and the rest of the young studs, he’ll be part of a playoff team in KC soon.

{Grade: C-}

Mark Reynolds:

His average was .221, which is apparently impressive for a guy coming off a .198 season. “Only” 196 whiffs in 155 games for a guy who punched out over 200 times each of the past three seasons. Reynolds did have 37 homers and 86 RBIs; however, the Orioles were one of baseball’s biggest disappointments in 2011, so I’m really not sure what he brought to Baltimore.

{Grade: B+}

So I’m looking at very decent grades for 2011…

Agree/disagree? Bring facts, not conjecture nor ad hominem attacks. Thanks.

“Where still n 1st and I hope those crying birds injoy watching tha Crew in tha Playoffs!!! Aaaaahhhhh!!!”

I can’t be the only person who wouldn’t mind seeing the Brewers have to get through the Cardinals setting up a Morgan vs. Pujols confrontation.

Unfortunately, that won’t end in the same manner Gaby Sanchez’s displeasure with Morgan did. Take a moment and watch Morgan get victimized by the finest pro wrestling clothesline since John Bradshaw Layfield retired.

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals Preview

Roy Halladay’s first trip to the postseason was quite a memorable one, (he threw only the second no-hitter in playoff history in his first playoff start) though it ended in bitter disappointment. The two-time Cy Young Award winner, his teammates, and just about everyone else in Philadelphia expects the Phillies to win the World Series this time around.

Then again, the city of Boston thought the same thing

Led by their Four Aces, the Phillies cruised to their fifth straight NL East title, winning a franchise-record and major league-best 102 games.

The Cardinals needed an incredible collapse by Atlanta and help from Philadelphia to earn the wild card. St. Louis trailed the Braves by 10 1/2 games on Aug. 25, but went 23-8 the rest of the way and got in after Game 162 when the Phillies completed a three-game sweep of Atlanta.

The Cardinals (90-72) won six of nine against Philadelphia during the season, with two of those wins coming right after the Phillies wrapped up the division.

The health of Matt Holliday (hand) is a huge question mark. Holliday is one of the most underrated elite hitters in baseball and will be an integral part of the Cardinals attempt to solve The Philly Phour

During the Cardinals’ mad dash toward the top of the National League Wild Card standings in September, Lance Berkman played in 25 games, batted .374, had an OPS of .941, drew 14 walks, scored 16 runs and had seven extra-base hits.

Philadelphia’s Roy Halladay (19-6, 2.35 ERA, 220 K’s), Cliff Lee (17-8, 2.40 ERA, 238 K’s) and Cole Hamels (14-9, 2.79, 194 K’s) combined for a 50-23 record, 2.51 ERA and 652 strikeouts in 682 1/3 innings. They also compiled an arrangement of numbers no starting trio had assembled in the modern era of baseball.

Entering the 2011 season, five teams since 1901 had two starting pitchers throw at least 200 innings, average at least eight strikeouts per nine innings and finish the season with an ERA+ of at least 130. Halladay, Lee and Hamels all surpassed these thresholds in 2011.

The Phillies had the poorest September (16-14) of the eight postseason teams. That may have been related to the fact they were the first to clinch, on Sept. 18.

Of all their possible NLDS matchups, this could be least favorable to the Phillies. By personally eliminating the Braves, they arranged a date with the only team against which they had a noteworthy losing record (3-6).

But what does all this mean?

What I have seen over the past month is a Philly team that has become complacent. Throw in the declining skills of the entire offense (Hunter Pence discluded) and the Phillies, despite the fact they aren’t “supposed” to lose, really could be in trouble here.

The Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in the MLB right now. If they have Matt Holliday back, they become even more dangerous. Throw in the fact Pujols is back to playing like Albert Pujols and you can not count this team out.

I think Philadelphia wins Game 1, Carpenter, on the heels of a 2-hit shutout on Wednesday, beats Cliff Lee in Game 2 and that momentum will help carry St. Louis to victory. I also think Carpenter will be back for Game 5 on short rest and shut down his former rotation mate Halladay.

How can I say that? Easily. St. Louis is on a roll ever since their deal with the Blue Jays. Corey Patterson has been key off the bench, Edwin Jackson is as good as he’s ever been and Octavio Dotel and Marc Rzepczynski have taken a decent bullpen and made it elite. Not to mention the fact they both have two of baseball’s best names (yes, I know Philly has Antonio Bastardo).

The big key here is Carpenter. Lost in Wednesday’s craziness was a dominant effort by one of baseball’s most underrated pitchers. Right now, he’s pitching better than anyone not named Kershaw and with two potential starts, I see that as two definite losses for Broadstreet.

Baseball is a game of momentum and Philadelphia is not playing well enough to beat a St. Louis team that has never looked better.

NLDS Prediction: St. Louis in 5 games

Philadelphia Phillies v St. Louis Cardinals NLDS TV Schedule and Pitching Matchups

TV Schedule

• TV Network: TBS (Game 2 on TNT taking the spot of WCW Saturday Night)
• Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 1 at 5:07 p.m. ET @ Philadelphia
• Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 2 at 8:07 p.m. ET @ Philadelphia
• Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 4 time TBA ET @ St. Louis
• Game 4: Wednesday Oct. 5 time TBA @ St. Louis
• Game 5: Friday Oct. 7 time TBA @ Philadelphia

Pitching Matchups

• Game 1: Kyle Lohse (14-8, 3.39) vs. Roy Halladay (19-6, 2.35)
• Game 2: Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45) vs. Cliff Lee (17-8, 2.40)
• Game 3: Jamie Garcia (13-7, 3.56 vs. Cole Hamels (14-9, 2.79)
• Game 4 (probable): Edwin Jackson (12-9, 3.79) vs. Roy Oswalt (9-10, 3.69)
• Game 5 (probable): Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45) vs. Roy Halladay (19-6, 2.35)

Take a look at the screenshot below and tell me what you see:

Yes, incredibly, both Wild Card races in both leagues are tied on the final day of the regular season, which sets up an absolutely epic set of games to pay attention to tonight. The word “epic” gets overused a lot on the web; not here.

Here are the particulars of the four big games being played today.

Boston at Baltimore

• Time: 7:00 ET
• TV: ESPN
• Pitching Matchup: Jon Lester v Alfredo Simon

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays

• Time: 7:00 ET
• TV: ESPN
• Pitching Matchup: TBA v David Price

Philadelphia at Atlanta

• Time: 7:00 ET
• TV: ESPN2
• Pitching Matchup: Joe Blanton v Tim Hudson

St. Louis at Houston

• Time: 8:00 ET
• TV: ESPN2
• Pitching Matchup: Chris Carpenter v Brett Myers

In terms of national coverage, all games are listed as being on ESPN or ESPN2, so I have to assume it will be regionally divvied up. Surely MLB Network will be following all four closely; that’s the channel that will be on at my house.

Now, you may be wondering what will happen if the standings remain tied at the end of today. Easy: there will be a play-in game to determine the Wild Card representative. And the schedule is already set for these games, should they occur:

AL Play-In Game*

• Location: Tampa Bay
• TV: ESPN
• Time: 4:07 ET

NL Play-In Game*

• Location: St. Louis
• TV: ESPN
• Time: 8:07 ET

* – if necessary (and first pitch times won’t change if there is only one play-in game and not two)

I have been relatively disengaged from baseball over the past few weeks with the beginning of football and the collapse of my thoroughly disappointing White Sox. Today will be nice a primer for the playoffs to get me re-amped up.

Remember all that talk about how there were no pennant races? Ha. At the time I suppose such talk was apt, but things can change quickly in baseball, as they did this year. What a day, and possibly two days, this will be.

Play ball!

In my view, Tim’s one of the few bright minds left at ESPN, so I was disappointed in his response when they asked him the cliché “Can anyone beat the Phillies” question, and he basically gave the cliché answer of “I don’t think so.”

When pressed to find a weakness in the team, he reached for “back end of the bullpen,” which is correct,
as though they’re the best team in the NL, they arguably have the worst bullpen of any potential playoff team, and the most suspect closer in Ryan Madson. They’ve imploded a few times lately, most recently in Miami Saturday night.

But Tim, there was an easy weakness you could’ve noted, but didn’t because I bet it didn’t fit
ESPN’s modus operandi: the Rollins-Utley-Howard nucleus is aging and declining, and this season it’s hugely evident.

All Kurkjian needed to say was that, while Chase Utley’s been hurt, he’s not the same player at age 33 that he was at 28 or even 31. The 32 year-old’s average is down 30 points, and he’s hit just 25 homers in his last 200 games, after averaging around 30 per 162 the five prior years.

As for Jimmy Rollins, the oft-injured 32 year-old is having another mediocre season. Take away his
excellent 2007 (and questionable MVP — Matt Holliday deserved it), and he’s a .268 lifetime hitter with 15 HR power. Not terrible for a leadoff man, but his On Base Percentage is awful for a table setter.

Ryan Howard is off limits for criticism, of course. I need not chronicle my laundry list of those examples, other than to link this, this and especially this (re postseason).

Kurkjian could’ve easily noted that every category for Ryan decreases by season as he ages and makes more money.

Since last August, Howard’s a .250 hitter with 30-35 HR power (not 45-50), who continues to strike out more than any player not named Drew Stubbs, Mark Reynolds, or Adam Dunn. His OPS is brutal–barely top 25 in the NL—well behind teammates Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino (the two most consistent hitters in Philly’s lineup for 2011)

And Tim knows that Ryan was a liability in last season’s playoffs by not knocking in a single run, and
standing with his bat on his shoulder in the most important at bat of the Phillies season — versus Brian Wilson with the winning runs on base in Game 6 of the NLCS. Howard whiffed, as he’s done at playoff-record place the past two postseasons: 30 in last 52 at bats!

If Tim didn’t know all this, he’s not as well-versed as I thought he was. Why do bloggers like me and others – with full-time jobs — know this, but he does not? And if he did know this, and decided not to relay it (His answer was “their offense is awesome”) then he just joins another in the long list of sports and news media types who puts agenda before honest journalism.

Even the Philly blogs are now questioning Ryan Howard. This one talks briefly about why he wasn’t an All Star in 2011, then gets into his declining stats, and notes, as of 6 weeks ago, “Philly Faithful are hoping for an enormous finish to the season out of their Silver Slugger, but if 2010’s injury plagued second half proves to be the trend expect nothing better than his non-all-star caliber first half.”

And he’s hit .240 in the 2nd half with a pitiful .320 OBP, 56 Ks in 43 games. No surprise.

I figured I might as well do monthly updates on these “predictions,” so as to capriciously praise or condemn myself.

Underrated

Miguel Cabrera

Here is a real superstar. Top 10 in the three major offensive categories, and as a bonus, only 72 strikeouts in 123 games. Cabrera is second in OPS, the most telling category in baseball, and second in On Base Percentage thanks to 80 walks (also 2nd in the AL).

That’s what makes a great ballplayer: consistently good all around. And still, few notice him amongst the Jose Bautistas, Paul Konerkos, Adrian Gonzalezes, Mark Teixeiras, Robinson Canos and Curtis Grandersons of the AL world who garner our attention. Cabrera’s a legit MVP contender again. {Grade so far on my prediction: PASS }

Paul Konerko: 

Pauly continues to be under-appreciated, even in his own city considering Carlos Quentin has reverted back to stellar 2009 form. I will keep praising Paul — even though I despise the ChiSox — because there are people who actually think Ryan Howard is a better player, despite Konerko being better in nearly every category, and by a long shot in most.

Howard will never get 2000 hits, and 400 HRs is questionable. Konerko, just three years older than the Philly first baseman, will likely roll past that first milestone this weekend, and the other next month. And unlike Howard and most others, the White Sox first baseman somehow gets better with age.  He’s now top 5 in all major offensive categories, sans average and RBIs, where he’s 6th. {Grade: PASS}

Adam Dunn:

I often compare the media love for Ryan Howard to Adam Dunn, as I feel they’re basically equal players (same age, same style, Howard higher average, Dunn better power numbers, etc), but if I’m to call out Ryan, Adam needs the same treatment.

You can’t spin this anymore now than you could a month ago: he’s been a disaster! 

Adam’s still hitting well under .200; just 11 homers and 40 RBIs in 102 games; leads the league in strikeouts (149), and a startling 3 for 80 versus left-handed pitching. Yes, that’s a .038 clip! {Grade: FAIL}

Ryan Zimmerman and Shin Soo-Choo have missed too much time for evaluation right now. Neither have been extremely productive, though Zimmerman is hitting .300; and Choo, fresh off the DL this week, shall be a necessary contributor if Cleveland wants a shot at the playoffs. He had five hits in three games during the Indians’ just-completed series win in Chicago.

Overrated:

Ryan Howard:

The “centerpiece” of my article was the Phillies’ big first baseman, who’s been at the top of my list (and emails, texts and tweets) of overhyped ballplayers for years. I’ve see absolutely nothing in 2011 to change my mind; in fact, no matter what ESPN or the media says, I’m more confident in my views than ever.

There was a devastating critique of Howard’s absurd $25 million/year salary and declining stats in Yahoo Sports last month. It hit every angle statistically and factually. While some commenters applauded, most called the writer names and used profanity. It was classic to read his backers getting so desperate.

Though his RBI and home run numbers remain relatively high, vital categories (and overall power categories like slugging, OPS and OBP) continue to fall, while his strikeouts remain 2nd in the National League (on pace for over 180 again).

Ryan has TWO homers off a lefty in 143 at bats this season, and no clutch hits that anyone can recall. (I won’t get into past postseason futility since I covered it last fall)

Howard’s OPS — the most relevant category for a power guy — is an abysmal 23rd in the NL. Despite his power numbers, he’s still a distant 20th in Slugging. His On Base Percentage barely cracks the top 50 on the Senior Circuit. Very telling.

Unless you’re looking for a player on the back-end of his career; less durable than in the past; is quite replaceable; who doesn’t get on base enough; whiffs a lot; is slow; suspect with the glove, but will get you 30-35 HRs with 100 RBIs and a .250 average, he’s not your man.

{Grade so far on my prediction that Howard is overrated: PASS}

Carlos Pena:

The Cubs first baseman has 23 bombs, but that’s around his career average. He’s still at his customary .225 and a putrid .141 off lefties; yet this overpaid 33-year old is a lifetime .239 hitter, so what do we expect? Losing player, losing teams. He doesn’t strikeout quite as much as Howard or Dunn, but that proves little. He’s still overrated. {Grade: PASS}

BJ Upton: Upton rightly doesn’t get the love he once received, but still, when you think of the Rays, after Longoria, BJ’s name comes up. Why?  You like .230 hitters who strikeout WAY too much (5th in AL), with mediocre power and bad attitudes? Until his average improves…{Grade: PASS}

Jeff Francoeur:

Has expectedly cooled considerably after a surprisingly hot start. Jeff’s still at .275/15/66, but he’s not an old player; KC expected him to produce, which is why they extended him through 2013 yesterday. That said, I don’t expect him to get hotter as the summer winds down. Twelve of his 15 dingers and 56 of his 66 RBIs were pre All Star Break. {Grade: MIXED}

Mark Reynolds:

His average has dropped back down to .214, which is apparently impressive for a guy coming off a .198 season. “Only” 142 whiffs in 120 games, but Reynolds is technically on pace for close to 40 homers and 100 RBIs. The Orioles aren’t winning at all, so I’m really not sure what he brings to Baltimore, but I could say the same about Pena, Dunn and many others right now. {Grade: PASS}

So I’m looking at decent grades (80% or so)…

Agree/disagree? Bring facts, not conjecture nor ad hominem attacks. Thanks.

I figured I might as well do occasional updates — especially here at midseason —  on these “predictions,” so as to capriciously praise or condemn myself.

Underrated

Miguel Cabrera:

Top 10 in the three major offensive categories, and as a bonus, only 51 strikeouts. That’s what makes a  great ballplayer. And still, few notice him amongst the Jose Bautistas, Paul Konerkos, Adrian Gonzalezes and Curtis Grandersons of the AL world who garner our attention. Cabrera’s a legit MVP contender again — though right now Bautista is the best hitter on earth. {Grade so far on my prediction: PASS }

Paul Konerko:

After his All-Star snubbing, need I even expound upon how underrated Pauly continues to be? Yes, because there are people who actually think Ryan Howard is a better player, despite Konerko being better in nearly every category, and by a long shot in most. Howard will never get 2000 hits, and 400 HRs is questionable. Konerko, just three years older than Howard, will roll past those milestones later this season. And unlike Howard and most others, the White Sox first baseman somehow gets better with age. {Grade: PASS}

Adam Dunn: 

I often compare the media love for Ryan Howard to Adam Dunn, as I feel they’re basically equal players (same age, same style, Howard higher average, Dunn better power numbers, etc), but if I’m to call out Ryan, Adam needs the same treatment.

You can’t spin this anymore now than you could a month ago: he’s been a disaster!  Another Ken Williams bust (see Rios, Alex too)

Adam’s still hitting well under .200; just nine homers and 34 RBIs in 78 games; leads the league in strikeouts (117), and a startling 2 for 64 versus left-handed pitching. Yes, that’s a .031 clip! {Grade: FAIL}

Ryan Zimmerman and Shin Soo-Choo have missed too much time for evaluation right now. Neither have been extremely productive.

Overrated:

Ryan Howard:

The “centerpiece” of my article, as many expected, was the Phillies’ big first baseman, who’s been at the top of my list (and emails, texts and tweets) of overhyped ballplayers for years. I don’t see anything in 2011 to change my mind; in fact, even if the media still think he’s “having a typically excellent year,” I’m more confident in my views than ever.

Though his RBIs remain relatively high, his homerun numbers (and overall power categories like slugging, OPS and OBP) continue to fall, while his strikeouts remain 3rd in the National League (98, therefore on pace for nearly 200).  He has yet to homer off a lefty in 110 at bats this season. Howard’s OPS — the most relevant category for a power guy — is an abysmal 25th in the NL.

The local Philly media naturally lauds Howard for “ceding the limelight,” but to me, unless you’re looking for a player on the back-end of his career, who doesn’t get on base much, whiffs a lot, is slow, suspect with the glove, but will get you 30 HRs with 100 RBIs and a .255 average, he’s not your man. I’m just stating obvious facts. His backers are getting desperate.

{Grade so far on my prediction that Howard is overrated: PASS}

Carlos Pena:  

The Cubs first baseman has 19 bombs, but he’s still at his customary .225 and a putrid .110 off lefties; yet this overpaid 33-year old is a lifetime .240 hitter, so what do we expect? He doesn’t strikeout quite as much as Howard or Dunn, but that proves little. He’s still overrated. I hope the Pirates don’t trade for him. {Grade: PASS}

BJ Upton: Upton rightly doesn’t get the love he once received, but still, when you think of the Rays, after Longoria, BJ’s name comes up. Why?  You like .239 hitters who strikeout too much, with mediocre power and bad attitudes? Until his average improves…{Grade: PASS}

Jeff Francoeur:

Has expectedly cooled considerably after a surprisingly hot start. Jeff’s still at .265/12/56, but he’s around .235 since April ended. I don’t expect him to get hotter as the summer approaches either. {Grade: MIXED}

Mark Reynolds:

His average has risen all the way to .227, which is apparently impressive for a guy coming off a .198 season. “Only” 96 whiffs in 87 games, but Reynolds is on pace for close to 40 homers and 100 RBIs. The Orioles aren’t winning, so I’m really not sure what he brings to Baltimore, but I could say the same about Pena, Dunn and many others right now. {Grade: PASS}

So I’m looking at decent grades (75-80% or so)…

Agree/disagree? Bring facts, not conjecture nor ad hominem attacks. Thanks.

I figured I might as well do a monthly update on these “predictions,” so as to capriciously praise or condemn myself.

Underrated

Miguel Cabrera: One of baseball’s best — if not the best in the AL — who rarely gets included in those lists, is off to his usual strong start, near the top of the league in many meaningful categories. How many have noticed? Few. The man who just turned 28 should eclipse 1500 hits sometime in July. Amazing. (Grade so far on my prediction: PASS)

Shin-Soo Choo: I didn’t go out on a limb here as many view this guy in similar fashion. He’s finally coming around a bit after a slow start, but with his team hot (welcome back, Grady Sizemore!), the Korean has begun to hit. His RBI numbers are particularly strong, since he finally has some talent around him. (Prediction Grade: Mixed)

Ryan Zimmerman: A strong start through eight games before injury. Unfortunately, no specific timetable on his return. (Grade: N/A)

Paul Konerko: The veteran just continues to rake, as he’s near the top of the AL in nearly all meaningful categories, yet Pauly still doesn’t get all the recognition he’s earned. On pace for around 40 Hrs and 140 knocked in. Will probably get his 400th career long ball and 2000th hit in 2011. (Grade: PASS)

Adam Dunn: Like the White Sox, Dunn’s been a major disappointment so far. No explanations for now, but I expect him to heat up as the weather does. (Grade: Fail)

Overrated

Ryan Howard: The “centerpiece” of my article is the Phillies’ big first baseman, who’s been at the top of my list of overhyped ballplayers for years. Though his RBIs remain relatively high, his homerun numbers (and overall power categories like slugging, OPS and OBP) continue to fall, while his strikeouts remain near the top of the league. If you’re looking for a player on the back-end of his career, doesn’t walk, whiffs a lot, is slow, suspect with the glove, but will get you 25-30 HRs with 100 RBIs and a .275 average, he’s your man. Just not an elite player deserving of an elite contract and elite publicity from ESPN. Those are facts.

Basically, as I said in my article, I’m hard-pressed to find a player in the league for whom there is a greater disconnect between perceived value and actual value. Finally, I think people are beginning to agree with me. (Grade on my prediction: Mixed)

Carlos Pena: Quite a signing by the Cubs, eh? Yes, it’s only a month in, but Pena’s already proving, as I noted, to hardly be an everyday player. The punchouts remain high, the average still appallingly low (below .200 for second year in a row), and Carlos cannot hit lefties. He makes $10 million per year. An absolute joke. A tougher fan base would’ve already forced Mike Quade’s hand, but most Wrigley fans don’t care about winning, just carousing. (Grade for me: PASS)

BJ Upton: A sad story about  kid with potential who simply cannot realize it. Upton continues to hit very low average, limited power and high strikeouts. Though he’s hit a bit better this week, all in all, the aforementioned is a horrific combination. I wish BJ the best, but he’s just not producing. (Grade for me: PASS)

Jeff Francoeur: He was a stretch to include, yet I was willing to take the risk; so far, I’m way off. Despite struggles last season, “Frenchy” is tearing it up for an erstwhile surprising Royals squad. We’ll see how long he stays in KC as they go toward a youth movement, but he’s doing well so far (Grade: Fail)

Mark Reynolds: I’m not a GM, but I do know what kind of players I dislike, and Reynolds is the type. I don’t understand what teams see in him. While Mark has been so futile he’s made Ryan Howard (199 Ks in 2007 and 2008) and others prone to the punch-out vanish from the headlines, he’s “only” on pace for about 160 Ks in 2011. However, the Orioles’ third baseman is baseman is hitting under .200 AGAIN, and this time not even producing power. At least in Arizona he mashed 121 dingers over four seasons. The local media is so desperate for anything from the free agent acquisition that they’re writing full articles hailing games where he gets a hit! (Grade: PASS)

Stay tuned for another update at the end of May.

In this post, the final in our division-by-division MLB predictions, we analyze whether the Rangers can repeat, or whether the A’s, Angels, or Mariners can rise up and knock Texas down a rung.

Texas Rangers

The Rangers lost Cliff Lee and Vladimir Guerrero to free agency, and signed Adrian Beltre to play third base. Josh Hamilton, the 2010 AL MVP, will move to left field in an attempt to keep him fresh. Julio Borbon will start in center and Nelson Cruz will play right. David Murphy will get the fourth outfielder spot, with Craig Gentry also vying for a spot on the roster.

Mitch Moreland will start at first base, with Mike Napoli and Michael Young getting some time as well. Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus will fill the middle infield spots. Michael Young and Andres Blanco will be the utility infielders, with Young getting most of the DH at bats.

Catcher is a log jam in Texas, with four players capable of making it as the teams starter. Mike Napoli and Yorvit Torrealba appear to be the front runners, with Matt Treanor and Taylor Teagarden also in the mix. Somebody has to go, and one could be trade bait before spring training is over.

The Rangers could use another starter, but appear to have the rotation settled with C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis 1-2, then Brandon Webb whenever he gets healthy (at least that’s the hope), and Matt Harrison, Tommy Hunter and Derek Holland bringing up the rear (with Alexi Ogando filling in for the injured Hunter to start out). Neftali Feliz will be the closer after an impressive season last year.

Ron Washington will have this team playing well again, and another post season run could be on the way.

Prediction: The Rangers will win another 90 games this year, and that could be enough, but the Angels will give them a battle.

Oakland Athletics

The Oakland A’s surprised a lot of people last year, finishing the season at 81-81. Bob Green, in his fourth season as manager, will try and get his team to perform at the same level again this year. Josh Willingham, who signed in the off season, will be the starting left fielder. CoCo Crisp will play center and David DeJesus will play right field. Daric Barton will start at first base and be counted on to have better numbers this year. Hideki Matsui, who signed a one year contract, will take over as DH for Jack Cust, who signed with Seattle.

Mark Ellis, Cliff Pennington and Kevin Kouzmanoff will fill out the rest of the infield from second to third. Non-Roster invitee Andy LaRoche could find a spot behind Kouzmanoff as a backup with Ryan Sweeney, Conor Jackson and Chris Carter also fighting for spots. Kurt Suzuki, who missed over 20 games last season, will look to continue to put up good numbers. Landon Powell will be his backup, but will get few opportunities, as Suzuki will see almost all of the playing time behind the dish.

The starting rotation is filled with young arms: Dallas Braden will get the opening day nod, followed by Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill and Brandon McCarthy. Rich Harden (out until at least mid April) will be given a chance in the rotation after he recovers. Adam Rosales  (due back in early May) will be given a chance to win a backup infield position.

It’s going to take every player having an above average season to win 81 games again this year. I don’t see that happening. The rotation is too young, the lineup lacks power, and Matsui is in the final stages of his career.

Prediction: If the A’s win 80 games again I will be surprised; 70-75 wins would be a more realistic goal.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Mike Scioscia and the Angels had a very disappointing year last season, finishing at 80-82, ten games behind the Rangers. Vernon Wells came over from Toronto, will play leftfield, and be counted on to put up the numbers he’s been accustomed to. The emergence of Peter Bourjos in center will allow Torii Hunter to move to right and keep him fresh as the season goes on. Kendry Morales (likely not ready for Opening Day), Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis will fill the infield from first to third.

Bobby Abreu will be the primary DH, and may get a few starts in the outfield. Brandon Wood will be the utility infielder, and Reggie Willits the fourth outfielder. Catcher Jeff Mathis will get a chance to start with the departure of Mike Napoli. If he can’t produce, Hank Conger will take over if he can shore up his defense this spring.

The rotation looks good, consisting of Jared Weaver, Dan Haren, Ervin Santana, Joel Pineiro and Scott Kazmir. Fernando Rodney will get the closers job. Scott Downs (currently out), who also came over from Toronto, will eventually serve as the set up man. Francisco Rodriguez, Michael Kohn and Rich Thompson could be used as set up men or closers if Rodney or Downs falter or suffer an injury.

The players are there for Scioscia, and if the main nucleus of starters can stay healthy, the Angels will give the Rangers a battle for first in the West.

Prediction: If the bottom of the starting rotation (i.e. Kazmir) can post respectable numbers, they could win 90-95 games, which would put them in first place in the division. For the first time in years, a Wild Card team could come from somewhere other than the A.L. East.

Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners finished last in the West, with a record of 61-101, and are probably headed for another cellar finish this year. Eric Wedge, hired in the off season, will get a chance to try and turn things around in Seattle. The only bright spot for the Mariners last season was Felix Hernandez, the A.L. CY Young winner. He will be the team’s opening day starter, and lead the rotation which will also have Jason Vargas, Doug Fister and Erik Bedard. Michael Pineda, David Pauley, Luke French and Nate Robertson (out until May) will battle for the fifth spot in the rotation, and are insurance for oft-injured Bedard.

The infield will probably open with Justin Smoak, Brendan Ryan, Jack Wilson and Chone Figgins first to third. If Jack Wilson struggles at short, Ryan will move there, making room for top rookie of the year candidate Dustin Ackley to get some playing time.

Ichiro Suzuki will again bat leadoff and start in right field. Franklin Gutierrez will play center and either Michael Saunders or Milton Bradley will play left. Jack Cust, who signed in the off season, will be the DH. If Greg Halman could cut down on the strikeouts, he would be the team’s number four outfielder and possibly a starter. Gabe Gross and Adam Kennedy, both non-roster invitees, could make the roster with great springs but is unlikely. Miguel Olivo will be the starting catcher. Adam Moore and Josh Bard will use the spring to battle for the backup spot.

David Aardsma (possible April return) would be the closer, if not injured, so Brandon League will fill that role until Aardsma is ready. Manny Delcarmen, a non-roster invitee, could make the roster and help in the bullpen. The Mariners will be better this year, but any thoughts of playoffs should be ignored.

Prediction: The realistic outlook would be for the M’s to win 70-75 games, maybe giving them a run at getting out of the basement.

(All rosters are taken from mlb.com active rosters, depth charts and non-roster invitee lists as of 03-20-11)

This year, the Boys of Summer are beginning earlier than ever (the regular season will end mid-week instead of on a Sunday for the first time in eons, so who says baseball cannot adjust? They actually do moreso than any other sport), on Thursday the 31st with half a dozen games —  before we’re presented with a full weekend slate.

Here are ten nationally-televised matchups to keep an eye on prior to the July All-Star Break in Phoenix:

Giants-Dodgers (Thurs, 3/31): There are just two small things I miss about living in Los Angeles: In-N-Out Burger and Dodger Stadium. A 5pm battle in the late afternoon sun between historic rivals on Opening Day– one now being the defending champs — is simply delicious.

Padres-Cardinals (Sat, 4/2):  Many believe these teams will be down in 2011, but baseball is too hard to forecast like that. An inter-divisional matchup of two strong second place clubs from last year on this season’s first weekend is very enticing — especially since I will be in attendance!

Yankees-Red Sox (Sat, 4/9): The Yankees may struggle this season, while the Red Sox are considered the best team in baseball; but even though we midwesterners love to poke fun at this overhyped matchup, it’s still ‘special,’ particularly the first series each season.

Rangers-Yankees (Sun, 4/17): While the Rangers’ pennant-winning club of 2010 exorcised 40 seasons of frustration, it was extra awesome that they knocked off the hated Yankees along the way (since New York ended Texas’s season three times in the late 90s). This game will conclude the teams’ first matchup since the 4-2 ALCS win for Texas last October.

White Sox-Tigers (Sat, 4/23): Many expect the Twins to take a step back in 2011, and if they do, these two upper midwest rivals will duke it out for AL Central supremacy. Chicago and Detroit compete in six head-to-head series this season, but this will be the first round.

Padres-Cardinals Reds-Cardinals (Sun, 4/24): Though the Reds pulled away in September to win the NL Central with ease, Saint Louis still dominated the head-to-head series in 2010, including a huge sweep in August before the Cardinals fell apart down the stretch. And I don’t need to remind you about the unique brawl in Cincy during that key series, beginning with Brandon Phillips and Yadier Molina, ending with Chris Carpenter pinned against the backstop. No love here between these two rivals. This series will also be their first meeting of 2011.

Braves-Phillies (Sun, 5/8): The Braves first visit to Philly of 2011 culminates with a Sunday night telecast. (We can all be thankful to ESPN for finally putting the annoying Jon Miller/Joe Morgan broadcast team out to pasture last November.) These are arguably the two top teams in the NL East, and with the Phillies’ celebrated rotation, you have an 80 percent chance of seeing a top-tier pitcher in this one too.

Rangers-Phillies (Sat, 5/21): Interleague play returns with this unique matchup that was nearly your 2010 World Series. It will be interesting to see how the Rangers have fared through seven weeks at this juncture, as well as whether Philly’s Fabulous Four have lived up the hype, or floundered a bit like Miami’s “Heatles” so far.

Reds-Giants (Sat, 6/11): If the Reds perform to expectations, this could be a midseason matchup of two of the NL’s best, as Cincy embarks upon a west coast swing.

Yankees-Cubs (Sat, 6/18): Ten weeks in, one or both of these squads could be buried in 3rd or 4th place, but this is why Interleague Play exists: Yankees at Wrigley. If you want proof of baseball’s popularity, stop by Wrigley Field on Father’s Day Weekend.

*White Sox-Cubs (honorable mention,Sat, 7/2): A late Saturday afternoon start on 4th of July weekend at Wrigley for the cross-town showdown. Surely an epic scene, even if the game is often secondary.

Full season national broadcast lineup here.

The Philadelphia Phillies won the division last year with a league best 97 games, one better than the Tampa Bay Rays, and then made it to the NL Championship Series, losing to eventual World Series winner San Francisco.

This year the Phillies will look to make another run deep into the playoffs, and hope to go further, winning it all this time.

Philadelphia Phillies

The offseason signing of Cliff Lee — now in his second stint with the club — was a huge step in making that a reality. Roy Halladay will be the ace of a great staff, comprised of Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton. With Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson on the back end, the Phills have one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball.

Ryan Howard, Chase Utley (3-17, out indefinitely, tendinitis in left knee), Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco will be the opening day starters on the infield. If Utley isn’t ready by opening day, which is highly likely, Wilson Valdez will be the starting second baseman.

The outfield will have Shane Victorino and Ben Francisco. The right field job will be Francisco’s to lose, with Dominic Brown ( out indefinitely, broken hamate bone, possibly ready late April) and Ross Gload available if he falters. Carlos Ruiz will be the starting catcher, with Brian Schneider as the backup.

Charlie Manuel, as usual, will have this team ready. Health will be an issue, as with any team, but even more so if it occurs to Halladay, Lee, Howard, Utley, Victorino or Rollins. If the Phillies stay healthy, they could win over 100 games.

2011 Prediction: They will win the East without a problem, more than likely being the first team to clinch a playoff spot in the league.

Atlanta Braves
For the first time since 1990 season, the Atlanta Braves will have someone other than Bobby Cox managing the ball club. Fredi Gonzalez will take over for a Braves team that finished last season with a record of 91-71, good enough to make the playoffs as the NL Wild Card. Gonzalez spent the last three seasons as manager for the Florida Marlins. It will be up to him to continue to build on the momentum that Bobby Cox created last year.

The offense will look to produce more, and the signing of second baseman Dan Uggla will help to bolster the middle of the lineup. Jason Heyward will be in his second season and should put up better numbers. Rookie of the year candidate Freddie Freeman will get a chance at everyday duty at first base. Chipper Jones will be back at third base, confident that off season knee surgery will not slow him down. Catcher Brian McCann is solid offensively, and will look to produce like last year. Alex Gonzalez, Nate McLouth and Martin Prado will fill the remaining spots in the order, with Brooks Conrad, Diory Hernandez, Joe Mather, Jordan Schafer and back up catcher David Ross, using spring training to fill 2 bench spots.

Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson and Mike Minor fill the starting rotation. Brandon Beachy will fill in if any injuries occur, and will be used out of the bullpen to start the season. Craig Kimbrel will be given the chance as closer, but lefthander Jonny Venters may challenge him for that role.

The Braves made a great run last year, but there are clearly better teams in the National League.

2011 Prediction: The absence of Bobby Cox will cost them at least ten games, putting the Braves out of Wild Card contention, but still finishing second in the division and should win 80-85 games this year.

Florida Marlins
The Florida Marlins finished last season at 80-82, 17 games behind the Phillies. With Fredi Gonzalez going to Atlanta, Edwin Rodriguez will be given a shot as manager after coaching the Marlins AAA team in New Orleans the last three seasons. The Marlins are a young team, which is the main reason they moved Rodriguez up to the majors.

The starting rotation is led by Josh Johnson, with Ricky Nolasco, Javier Vazquez, Anibal Sanchez, and Chris Volstad following in some order. Alex Sanabia could win the fifth spot with a great spring, but more than likely will be sent to Triple A to start the season.

Hanley Ramirez, Gaby Sanchez, Wes Helms and Omar Infante will be the starters on the infield. Ozzie Martinez and Emilio Bonafacio will vie for the utility infield spot. Mike Stanton, Chris Coghlan and Logan Morrison will fill the outfield, with Scott Cousins more than likely getting the number four spot. Non-Roster invitee Dewayne Wise could also win a reserve spot.

Veteran John Buck, who had a great year for the Blue Jays, will be the starting catcher. If John Baker isn’t ready, which is likely as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, Brett Hayes will be the back up catcher. Baker could be also used off the bench as a left handed pinch hitter. Leo Nunez will get a chance a being the closer, but if he struggles, Clay Hensley will get an opportunity.

2011 Prediction: The Marlins are a young, scrappy bunch, and will play hard until the last out. I just don’t see them winning more than 80 games this year however, which will put them fighting the Braves for second in the NL East.

New York Mets
Looking to turn things around in 2011, the Mets have plenty of talent with former All Stars Johan Santana (out indefinitely, torn left shoulder, possible midseason return), David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Jason Bay and Francisco Rodriguez.

Ike Davis will get a chance to improve on a nice rookie season, while veteran Luis Castillo was released on 3-19, as he continued to struggle, and will be replaced by Luis Hernandez.  Carlos Beltran will move to right field, giving Angel Pagan the center field position. Josh Thole will be counted on to be the everyday catcher, with Ronny Polino his back up.

The starting rotation will consist of Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Young and Chris Capuano. The Mets also signed Boof Bonser to a minor league deal,then invited him to camp, and he could wind up in the rotation or provide bullpen help. Jason Isringhausen is also a non-roster invitee who could make the team if he stays healthy through spring training.

The Mets have plenty of great players, but they continue to struggle. The front of the house issues will continue to be brought up, which will hurt the players as they get questioned about it throughout the season.

2011 Prediction: Distractions are never good, and the Mets will have another 70 to 75 win season.

Washington Nationals
The Nats  were one of the early surprises at the start of last season. They were playing near .500 ball as late as 60 games into the season, and were only five games behind division leader Atlanta on June 9th; unfortunately, they finished the year 69-93, 28 games behind the Phillies.

Manager Jim Riggleman will have to get his players to play above their capabilities to make any kind of run at the top heavy National League East, as the Phillies and Braves are clearly the best teams in the division.

The starting rotation is below average, with Livan Hernandez and Jason Marquis the top two starters. Jordan Zimmermann, Tom Gorzelanny and John Lannan will probably be the other three starters. Chad Gaudin, a non-roster invitee, could also make the rotation if he continues to impress this spring.

The Nationals will be without stud Stephen Strasburg for the season, as he recovers from a torn ulnar collateral ligament. Strasburg has started throwing, and a late return may be possible, but is unlikely.

Adam LaRoche, Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth will be counted on to produce; losing either one of them to injury would be a major problem offensively. Ivan Rodriguez will be the opening day catcher, with Wilson Ramos getting more opportunities this season as Pudge winds down a stellar career. Drew Storen will be given the closer duties.

Jim Riggleman will get his players to play hard, and Washington will be an exciting team, but the wins will be hard to come by.

2011 Prediction: I look for another 65-70 win season, putting the Nats last in the East again.

(Note: All rosters are taken from mlb.com active rosters, depth charts and non-roster invitee lists as of 03-20-11)

Charlie Sheen has become pop culture in the last couple weeks. He really did all the work for me in coming up with the ideal player to return with when he mentioned his three favorite sports personalities were Zeile, Reggie Jackson and Mark Cuban. He also mentioned he would like to be Brian Wilson for a few minutes (who wouldn’t want to become one with THE BEARD?), and that the Reds need more starting pitching; so he obviously isn’t that out of it.

That said, let’s take a look at the man who has beguiled Mr. Sheen so much.

Zeile broke into the majors in 1989 as a catcher and the Cardinals’ most anticipated prospect. St. Louis manager Joe Torre wanted to make room for catcher Tom Pagnozzi and believed Zeile would be a more productive hitter with a longer career if he moved from behind the plate. Zeile would spend the majority of his career at third base, where he wasn’t exactly good, and at first base, where he wasn’t much better.

Zeile lead his league in errors by a third baseman on four separate occasions, and had the lowest fielding percentage in the NL in 2002 (.942). And if that weren’t enough, he led all MLB players in errors for the decade of the 1990s. These are the types of things Eric Hinske and Mark Reynolds only wish they could achieve at “the hot corner.”

Despite his obvious defensive shortcomings, and the fact that his offensive output was really just average (his 1997 and 1999 offensive lines were pretty darn good, but not really the stuff of legend, especially considering it was the late 90s), Zeile got the reputation of being a good “team guy”, being “scrappy,” and having “veteran presence”. So he never had any trouble landing work; he just had trouble keeping it.

Zeile also has the proud distinction of having played for 11 major league teams over the course of his career, and he managed to hit at least one home run for each of these 11 teams. This gives Zeile the illustrious accolade as the only player in major league history to have hit a home run for over ten teams. This is the baseball equivalent of dating the entire third string of a college football team. It’s impressive, but not for the right reasons.

Zeile also has the claim to fame of being one of only 41 players ever to hit a home run in his final at-bat, which he did on October 3, 2004 as a New York Met against the Montreal Expos’ Claudio Vargas. Zeile’s home run actually made him the last person ever to hit a home run off a Montreal Expos pitcher, as the Expos moved to Washington the following season. So yes, he did manage to kiss the second string quarterback at a party.

Considering his 253 round trippers rank him currently 189th all-time — in between such players as John Olerud and Bret Boone (expect both of them to eventually make an appearance here) — it’s really amazing he managed these feats.

In 1999, Zeile was part of the historic Texas Rangers “Z-Unit” (no one has ever called them that). Along with, the newly retired, Gregg Zaun and Jeff Zimmerman, he was one of three players on the team whose last names began with “Z”. Not since the 1916 Chicago Cubs had this occurred, when Joe Tinker assembled the all-star cast of Heinie Zimmerman, Dutch Zwilling, and Rollie Zeider. My sources indicate that Cubs team somehow managed to miss the World Series. I will have to get fact checkers on that.

I find it interesting that one of the most underrated second basemen in the game today, Kelly Johnson, has Zeile as his number two batting comp through age 28 (according to baseballreference.com). Johnson could do a whole lot worse (like his number 4 comp Kelly Gruber. Ewww). That being said, Johnson would undoubtedly hope to be remembered for more than an excessive amount of trivia about playing for losing teams.

You have to wonder if Sheen too just has a love of strange baseball players that are almost forgotten. Maybe he just assumes Zeile’s bizarrely historic dingers were as a result of the ultimate PED: tiger blood.

If you have any suggestions for future Obscure Players, drop them in the comments.

“I wanted Lee but I don’t think he could have handled the pressure of pitching here…”

The “I wanted him” proclamation aside (lots of people want things, but rarely get them), it’s debatable whether his “couldn’t handle the pressure of pitching here” cliche has merit, but it’s undoubtedly used way too often.

Judging by Cliff Lee’s calm demeanor, relaxed mannerisms, and the way he’s absolutely dominated the Yankees every time he’s faced them in October, I think Mr. Lee “handles pressure” as well as anyone —  even if insulated NY Times’ sports curmudgeon George Vecsey (a man who’s likely not ventured outside the Tri-State area in decades) believes Lee wasn’t “cut out” for life in the big city.

Is the New York media really more intimidating than facing the Bombers at Yankee Stadium in October?  Or scarier the Philadelphia media, for what it’s worth? George King of the New York Post penned today that Lee actually enjoyed the “tough Phillie fans.” I agree.

Consider how many times Lee has now rejected the Yankees. This will probably be the last round, but New York has been oh so close to nabbing the lefty-they-cannot-beat twice in just the past five months, only to fail. I can certainly see how it’s irksome to Yankee fans.

And yes, pitchers like Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown, Ed Whitson, Javier Vazquez  and others, abruptly floundered in Gotham, but were their struggles only due to this so-called “big stage”? Johnson handled that obstacle pretty well in the 2001 World Series, winning MVP as Arizona shocked New York for the title. 

Maybe Cliff Lee just does not like New York? As Craig Calcaterra of NBC’s Hardball Talk astutely mused (emphasis added):

“It seems inevitable that certain Yankees fans and certain New York writers will rush to make what is a baseball personnel matter into a referendum on the player’s guts or character. To make it the presumption that New York is where everyone wants to be and, if it doesn’t work out that way, it was the player’s issues, not their own.  I can’t express to you how grating I find that to be.”

Indeed, like Los Angeles, Boston, Washington and San Francisco to name a few, the majority of folks who like New York City have already chosen to reside there.

Cliff Lee prefers deer hunting and “the good life” in Arkansas to the helter-skelter pace of  life he’s already witnessed in America’s biggest city. Such a self-centered group of fans– and I know dozens of them, many of whom are fuming while reading these words — won’t understand why most baseball fans are overjoyed that he spurned the Yankees.

Having his lovely wife cursed at, spit on, and having been thrown at her by Yankee Stadium thugs during the ALCS  probably mattered to this mild-mannered southerner, though he was too mature to say it publicly.

Alas, the Yankee brass only understands money. No fan base, media, or front office lives in a bigger bubble, hence this incredibly arrogant tweet from an anonymous ‘official’ in the Bronx late Monday night.

“Anybody who would leave $50M on the table obviously doesn’t want to pitch in New York. Thank God we found out in time.”

Wow. That says it all. Well, almost: The most inane reaction to Lee’s signing, unsurprisingly came from noted ESPN blowhard Skip Bayless, who naturally compared Lee’s quiet, professional decision to Lebron’s narcissistic Decision.

So in the end, what is the ultimate effect of the past 36 hours, and the entire period since the Winter Meetings commenced in Orlando on December 6?

The Phils are big winners, of course,  along with the Red Sox, who signed two left-handed star bats that will now avoid seeing Lee in Pinstripes.

The Rays, who’ve actually been AL East champs twice since Boston last triumphed in 2007, are not that far off —  if they can keep Matt Garza as part of a great young staff. {Tampa was lucky the Cubs decided to pay overrated Carlos Pena (who hit under .200 last year) $10 million, while they fully expected to lose Carl Crawford.}

The biggest losers are in fact the Yanks, who are now literally “scared.” Perhaps the Rangers (if they don’t land Zack Greinke or a decent arm soon), but also the Angels, who continue to lose players without picking up any top-level free agents.

Until then, GM Brian Cashman will help New Yorkers learn a new word: Patience. As the Joel Sherman —  ye of little credibility after declaring a Yanks-Phils Fall Classic was inevitable before both teams choked in the LCS – scribed this morning: The Yankees have ‘survived’ worse. Please, Joel.

Mike Lupica has also chimed in with his advice to “Brainy Brian.”

{By the way, Yankee fans of a certain age, MLB Network is re-broadcasting Game 7 of the 1960 World Series in its entirety tonight. It’s been a rough few days. Welcome to the real world.}

To read yesterday’s Part One of the Cliff Lee signing (Philadelphia angle), click here.

Cliff Lee’s decision seemingly came out of nowhere, fooling 99% of the ‘expert’ writers, who not only missed this one all November and December, but mocked the only guy (SI’s Jon Heyman, now hopefully everyone’s source for accurate baseball info) who continuously advised us that a  ’mystery team’ was still involved in the sweepstakes. (More on Heyman the Hero later…)

The Philadelphia media and their passionate fans should be ecstatic , but as always, it infuriates them to accurately read — as it did when Philly first signed Lee in July 2009 — that this is another example of a rich club getting richer.

The Phillies have been the “Yankees (or Red Sox) of the NL” for a few years now, but every time I, or someone else, says this, we’re lambasted. Check comments under my Lee column from last, peruse my archive’s comment sections, or my twitter account for proof.

Today, in lieu of discussion, I was already called “the most negative person on the planet” by a friend in Philadelphia; in the past I’ve been deemed “racist,” “hater,” and much else for having the temerity to question Ryan Howard. And the furor Jerod Morris caused by fairly and factually observing Raul Ibanez’s power surge in 2009 is legendary for the overreaction it caused among Philadelphia fans and media.

All of these cop outs are easy for Philadelphia suburbanites who cheer on winning teams to mutter considering their team’s payroll and roster. But rather than agreeing that Philadelphia is just playing within the same rules as any other big market club and spending on talent, Philly fans become apoplectic at compliments?

Part of this aberrant mentality is a refusal to be grouped with New York, and instead maintain their proud “second city” status, despite Philly’s baseball (and football and hockey) team’s sustained success. Residents and fans of teams playing in the “Cradle of Democracy” sell out nearly all home games, and therefore have revenue to buy (yes, buy) the best players around.

Folks, please embrace the excellence capitalism offers; stop looking for pity from fans whose teams are miserable and unable to fork over the necessary dollars to acquire three frontline starters in the past year. You think fans of Cleveland and Pittsburgh want to hear excuses? You are blessed. 

But the self-pity pervades, even today, from beat writer Phil Sheridan:

In truth, Philadelphia struggled mightily at the plate last season as compared to prior campaigns. This continued into the playoffs, costing them a third consecutive pennant. The team’s best hitter last season, Jayson Werth, is gone. And the ‘best of the rest’ — Ibanez, Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley — are all aging hitters with varied levels of diminishing skills and/or nagging injuries.

Due a ridiculously emotional contract in April, the Phils are unfortunately now stuck with Howard — who couldn’t make much contact or knock in a run when it mattered most this past October  — for six more long years and well  over $100 million! Ibanez is already on the trading block. More on the weaknesses of the NL East champs are discussed here, though naturally the media avoids writing anything negative on precious Ryan Howard’s struggles.

And lastly, since I delved into many tangents today, the ethos of this essay should not only be about Philadelphia, but another strike against our irresponsible mainstream media, who, whether it’s sports or news, continuously shows its painful combination of laziness and arrogance.

Kudos to one ‘crusader’ though, as mentioned earlier:

Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman.  

Mocked by the envious elites at ESPN & elsewhere all week for noting Cliff Lee had a “mystery team,” he deserves an apology from the Peter Gammonses (ESPN for decades, now MLBN), Keith Laws (ESPN) and Buster Olneys (ESPN) of the world for their mean-spirited, unprofessional and incorrect tweets. I doubt that will occur, unless it’s ‘quantified.’ Those feckless bozos won’t be held accountable by their networks and will move on, likely doing this again next winter.

It truly would take some mental gymnastics to believe any others, like ESPN and Philly’s own Jayson Stark, saw this deal coming.

But ONLY Heyman was intrepid enough to go on record.

NOTE: Tomorrow I’ll explore the New York ‘angle’ of Lee’s choice.

But does Fox or any network ever note this? In 2009, they had to, but thus far in 2010? No, sir. Ninety percent through its recap of last night’s loss, the AP  makes fleeting mention of one Howard punchout, as well as his first inning double. Nothing further. “No current notes” says his Yahoo profile. A google search turns up little mention as well. In fact, the positives are somehow still reinforced where appropriate. 

Otherwise, you’ll see Howard winning awards, getting selected to All-Star teams he has not earned, being in every Subway and Boys/Girls Club commercial, guest-starring on the season finale of HBO’s Entourage (to rave reviews, naturally), every MLB promo video, and, most audaciously, representing all of Major League Baseball on the David Letterman Show doing the Top Ten reasons to watch the MLB Playoffs before a National TV audience (the MLB.com piece opens: “Confident. Smooth. Perfect timing — all are attributes of Ryan Howard’s swing“…please) Thursday night.

To make matters more Orwellian, as of 2011, Howard will also be the HIGHEST paid player in baseball after Alex Rodriguez, despite his stats placing him barely in the top 25 in baseball this past season; and more importantly, his power numbersare also down over 30% in 2010. 

Thankfully, the “new media,” led by twitter, prefers honest journalism and does not play favorites, calling out poor performances and acknowledging the obvious, even if it’s “their guy.”

Some I know, especially Philly fans, get mad at me for reporting these issues. Some even call me a “racist.” Of course. Just like any criticism of the president is now “racist,” eh? I’m talking about a baseball player here, not race. {Leave the identity politics to Joe Morgan, and the race-baiting to folks like Orlando Hudson and Jeff Passan .}

But folks, this kind of piece is one key job of a conscientious reporter/blogger. It is NOT an obsession. I have no specific interest in the Phillies nor their first baseman. In fact, I think Ryan seems like a charming person, and I’ve written that before. But I prefer to “expose” the lunacy, laziness and irresponsibility –  be it political, social, sports, etc. I did so on this very site back in April when Mr. Howard’s capricious deal of 25 million per season was signed.

Nothing here is really an opinion, just stats, examples and occurrences, all backed up with hyperlinks. If you still object, that’s on you for ignoring FACTS.