I’ll Tell You This: WRs on the Move, the MLB Playoffs, and Who is the Best QB in the NFL?

1. 49ers Barking Up the Right (Crab) Tree

Finally, early on Wednesday morning, the 49ers and first round draft pick Michael Crabtree agreed to a deal that will get the WR on the field. The deal was worth $32 million over 6 years with $17 million guaranteed and up to $8 million in additional incentives.

If Crabtree makes the Pro Bowl in two of his first five years, the contract is void after 5 years.

I’ll Tell You This:

I’ve been begging the 49ers for weeks to just get this deal done, and now they have.

The team is already 3-1 without Crabtree and have been my NFC dark-horse since the beginning of the season. Now with Crabtree inked and Gore coming back to the line-up soon, this team moves officially into my “Contender” category.

… Continue Reading

I’ll Tell You This: JRod was Wrong, Belichick Still a Sore Loser, and the Cubs Finally Get it Right in Suspending Milton Bradley

[Editor's note: Each week, Big MB's regales us with his post entitled I'll Tell You This, in which he tells us...whatever it is he wants to tell us. This week, he will no doubt be gloating that his Colts grabbed victory from the jaws of defeat last night in Miami -- proving him right and me wrong. In fact, maybe I just shouldn't even post this and blame it on an "internal server error"...?

Tempting, but nah. It's my fault for betting against the great Peyton Manning. Gloat away Big MB.]

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Here are my top 5 stories for this week kids. Hope you enjoy!!

1. JRod was WRONG! Colts win to go 2-0.

In what was a great Monday Night Football game, the Colts emerged victorious after poor clock management by the Dolphins was sealed by a last second interception in the end zone by the Colts that secured a 27-23 victory in Miami.

An 80-yard touchdown pass to Dallas Clark from Peyton Manning on the first play of the game would only be outdone by a screen pass that second-year man Pierre Garcon would take to the house to give the Colts their 27-23 lead.

Miami did look very impressive in their Wildcat offense, accumulating over 200 yards on the ground.

I’ll Tell You This: Folks as promised, for those of you who caught last week’s podcast with JRod and myself, I am happy to say:

JROD WAS WRONG!!!!

However, I will also say Indy got lucky this week. Miami dominated on the ground on both sides of the ball, and held the Colts to under 15 minutes of total time of possession.

The Colts have improved to 2-0, but still have much to work on. The run game must improve, and the defense must improve on all fronts if this team wants to become a true Super Bowl contender.

Oh, and I kept my promise from the podcast. Jerod received a call from yours truly, gloating over the Colts victory.

2. J-E-T-S…..Jets, Jets, Jets!!!

The Jets backed up the smack they had talked in the week leading up to their match-up with the mighty Patriots by keeping New England out of the end zone and allowing only 9 points from the NFL “juggernaut”.

After the game Jets’ rookie QB Mark Sanchez offered a respectful handshake to Patriots’ head coach Bill Belichick, but Belichick shrugged Sanchez off.

The Patriots fell to 1-1.

I’ll Tell You This: In all my years of watching football, I have never been a Jets fan, but I found myself rooting for the Jets as if they were my very own Colts.

Belichick once again proved that he has absolutely no sportsmanship. While he is one of the best winners in the NFL, he is obviously one of the worst losers in sports.

Here’s where I complain.

The Patriots should be 0-2, if it were not for that idiot kick returner for Buffalo (who in the best interest of his home not getting vandalized again, will remain unnamed). Had he just taken a knee instead of trying to be the hero, the Bills win the game.

The Patriots have now been exposed. They are not the team to beat this year and they are sore losers. They are overrated.

3. The Cubs Got It Right….Finally!!!

The Chicago Cubs suspended MLB bad-boy Milton Bradley for the remainder of the season this weekend for bad mouthing the organization and its fans.

Bradley was on record with a local Illinois newspaper as saying “You understand why they haven’t won in 100 years here” in reference to being scratched from the lineup.

I’ll Tell You This: Finally, some exciting news for Cubs fans.

Hopefully Bradley has played his last game in a Cubs uniform.

He has been nothing but a trash-talking, embarrassing, overrated, loud mouthed, disappointment to the Cubs and their fans.  His head is so big that one may think that his ego is on steroids.

And to think, the Cubs let Mark DeRosa go for the chance to snag Bradley. Maybe that’s why they haven’t won in 100 years. Who knows. There’s always next year.

4. Thunder and Lighting

The first two weeks of this young NFL season have been the most exciting start to a season that I can remember.

Headlining Week 2 were two outstanding performances by two different running backs.

Although it was in a losing effort, from the get-go Chris Johnson put on a clinic against the young Houston Texans. Johnson had two long TD runs, including a 91-yard run on 3rd and 11, as well as a long touchdown reception.

The thunder came from what may be the dark horse of the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers. Frank Gore busted out back-to-back 80-yard touchdown runs and netted over 200 yards on the ground in the 49ers’ manhandling of division rival Seattle.

I’ll Tell You This: This has already been one hell of a season.

Honorable mentions for big games this week also go to Andre Johnson and Matt Shaub of the Texans, Peyton Manning and Dallas Clark of the Colts, Philip Rivers of the Chargers, and Ray Lewis of the Ravens for his big 4th down play that secured a win for Baltimore.

I hope this continues. This season has already been so fun to watch. It almost makes me want to go out and spend the $300.00 for NFL Sunday Ticket. Almost.

5. The MSF Weekly NFL Podcast

Hosted by MSF writers Jerod Morris and yours truly, Myles Berry, MSF takes a weekly look at the NFL.

The podcast debuted this past Friday in AJ Kaufman’s preview of Monday Night Football and is also available on iTunes.

Features include: The Monday Night Argument, Myles and Jerod’s NFL Locks against the spread, and the general banter that comes when these two butt heads on the mic.

I’ll Tell You This: Make sure you check out this week’s upcoming podcast, in which Jerod will feast on a big helping of crow from the Monday Night game.

[Editor's Note: I will feast on nothing.]

Another exciting week of I’ll Tell You This is in the books kids! Stay tuned for this week’s podcast. We’ll see you next week!

BigMB on Twitter at www.twitter.com/mylesb3269

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* – Milton Bradley photo credit: Fantasy Haven

MNF Preview & Podcast: Colts-Dolphins Analysis and Prediction

Editor’s Note: AJ Kaufman’s weekly MNF coverage on MSF is sponsored by Sadler’s Smokehouse, a producer of premium pit smoked meats that are best described by Sadler’s slogan: Legendary since 1948.

Sadler’s premium meats are perfect for tailgating on Saturday, for grilling out at home on Sunday, or for when you are hosting a group of friends, or even just the family, on Monday night.

With a variety of delicious choices (beef, pork, ribs, turkey, brisket, and more) and availability at grocery stores throughout the U.S., Sadler’s meats are the tasty, convenient choice when you want to watch the big game and eat well while you’re doing it.

• Check out Sadler’s Monday Night Football Recipe of the Week: Shaved Pork Loin Quesadillas
• Each week, you can also listen to the MSF Monday Night Football Podcast, brought to you by Sadler’s. In this week’s edition, Jerod and Big MB debate whether Miami or Indianapolis will come out on top Monday night and whether or not it’s true that Colts fans are both fair-weather. 
• Follow the link to listen to the MSF Podcast on iTunes, or us the in-page player below to listen while you read.

Colts-Dolphins MNF Preview Podcast presented by Sadler’s

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Monday Night Football Preview

Indianapolis Colts (1-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-1)

• Colts-Dolphins Date: Monday, September 21
• Colts-Dolphins Time: 8:30
• Colts-Dolphins TV Network: ESPN
• Colts-Dolphins Announcers: Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, Jon Gruden
• Colts-Dolphins Point Spread: Colts -3.5
• Colts-Dolphins Over-Under: 42
• Colts-Dolphins Pick by JRod: The Colts will be without a proven #2 WR and have no running game to speak of. With the Dolphins coming off of a terrible loss, I think the Parcells-Sparano combo has them ready to play. I think the Dolphins actually win this game outright in front of their home fans on Monday night. They’ll certainly cover 3.5 points. Colts-Dolphins spread pick: Dolphins +3.5.
• StubHub: Colts-Dolphins tickets as low as $42!
• StubHub: Indianapolis Colts tickets
• StubHub: Miami Dolphins tickets
• StubHub: all NFL tickets

Colts-Dolphins Analysis

Most Colts fans I know are usually optmistic, often blindly so. After last week’s 14-12 triumph over the subpar Jags in Indianapolis, however, many were not.

Even those over-analyzing and looking for pros and cons, down to the season as a whole, relayed guarded optimism at best, significant concerns about injuries and the running game at worst.

The Colts could not convert on short fourth downs, similar to last year’s playoffs when it directly cost them the game at San Diego. Despite the win last Sunday, Indy lost the turnover battle badly and did little on the ground. In addition to the injury to the team’s number two receiver, Anthony Gonzalez, oft-injured Bob Sanders (and his $7 million dollar contract) remains unavailable this week, out indefinitely it seems.

Therefore, I simply am not as sanguine as most others about the next few weeks of Colts football.
 
Though Indianapolis held on versus the Jags, it was far from spectacular. Overall, Peyton Manning was very good, with more than 300 yards in the air.  Like in 2008 when he won his third MVP, he may have to carry this team on his shoulders if they are to achieve their 6th consecutive 12-win season. (And no, the team is not re-signing Marvin Harrison for obvious reasons not needing enumeration.)
 
The next step for the Colts is southward to Miami for a primetime special on Monday night.
 
Indianapolis can take solace in the fact that Miami’s “Wildcat” offense was listless in a 19-7 loss to Atlanta. Their focus is on shoring up the porous offensive line that will have to play better this week if they expect to have any chance of contending Monday night, much less throughout the season. The Dolphins lost three fumbles, threw an interception, and were nearly shutout. A late 4th-quarter touchdown made the game look closer than it actually was.
 
Miami had a plus-17 turnover differential last year. Was the Atlanta game an early sign that perhaps things won’t be the same in 2009?

Chad Pennington, who had just seven turnovers all of last year, had two last Sunday (an interception and a fumble).  Though he was 21 for 29, Pennington threw for just 176 yards, which gives him a pretty weak average of just over six yards per attempt.

Returning to pass protection, the Falcons, not known for being able to get after the quarterback consistently, registered four sacks.
 
The Dolphins only used Pat White for three “Wildcat” plays during week one’s game, and on one of those plays he overthrew Ted Ginn, who was wide open and may have had a touchdown on the play. Using White more would likely allow him to get into a rhythm. With the Wildcat offense being an epic failure in the Atlanta game, however, garnering just four yards, is this fad fading?
 
This all established, Ricky Williams looked very quick and agile on Sunday, dispelling preseason talk from ESPN that he had lost a step. Still, one has to question if it’s the best thing for the Dolphins to keep Ronnie Brown–arguably the Dolphins most explosive offensive player–out for long stretches of the game simply because Williams is running the ball well. The Dolphins’ run defense was also solid, holding Atlanta’s Michael Turner to just 65 yards. Miami was 10th in the league last season at stopping the run.
 
An additional positive to note about the defending AFC East champions is the apparent resurgence of 35 year-old Jason Taylor. After a great preseason, Taylor proved he’s legit in 2009, starting off the regular season the right way with a sack. If he can regain the form that made him a perennial Pro Bowler, then the Dolphins may not have to rely on their offense as much throughout the year…and judging how they looked Week One, that could be a good thing.

Colts-Dolphins Prediction

My semi-confident prediction is that these two teams, who combined for only 21 points in week one, will score more this week. 

But even with that potential for a low score, I think the Colts will find enough to cover the small spread.

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* – Ricky Williams photo credit: Jamie Squire/Getty Images via About.com

I’ll Tell You This: Drew Brees and Tom Brady Display Greatness During NFL Kickoff Weekend

[Editor's note: Each week, Big MB's regales us with his post entitled I'll Tell You This, in which he tells us...whatever it is he wants to tell us. Enjoy...and stay tuned for an upcoming appearance by Big MB on the soon-to-be resumed MSF podcast. Big MB and I will be debating this week's Monday night game between the Colts and my first NFL love, the Dolphins.]

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It’s what we have all been waiting for: NFL Kickoff 2009.

After going through football withdrawls, the draft, and preseason, our moment of Glory finally came. And it was good…real good.

In honor of Week 1 I have decided to make this week’s I’ll Tell You This an “NFL Kickoff Special”.

Enjoy.

1. The Boston TD Party

In the first of two Monday Night Football games, Tom Brady stepped onto the field for a regular season game for basically the first time in two years (not counting his less-than-a-quarter stint a year ago before getting hurt) against the Buffalo Bills.

The Bills came out motivated and the Patriot came out flat. With time dwindling down in the final minutes of the 4^th quarter, Brady threw a line drive touchdown to tight end Ben Watson to bring the Bills lead to just 5 with 2:06 to go in the game. Instead of an onside kick, the Patriots chose to kick off deep.

Instead of taking a knee, Leodis McKelvin of the Bills decided to bring the ball out. After breaking a tackle or two, he got hammered and dumped the ball on the ground. The Patriots recovered near the 30 yard line of the Bills, and just a few short plays later Brady hit Watson again, on what seemed to be the exact same play, for another touchdown.

With only 50 seconds remaining, the Bills could not answer, and the Patriots would move to 1-0 on a miracle, or perhaps a follie.

I’ll Tell You This: As you may know about me, I am a die-hard Colts fan, and it pains me to talk about anything that has to do with the success of the New England Patriots.

But as for the Bills’ return man, I have a simple message: you are an idiot.

If you take a knee, your offense will run at least 30 seconds off of the clock, New England will use all of their time outs, and the entire AFC will take a collective breath as they realize that the mighty Patriots are 0-1.

But no.

You had to try to be the hero. Enjoy the practice squad.

The only consolation I can take is that MAYBE, just maybe, the Patriots aren’t the juggernaut that everyone seems to think they will be again.

2. The AFC South

Obviously, I can’t give the Patriots face time without spending a little time on my Colts and their division.

Houston, who has been deemed by many to possibly win the AFC South, came out flat and never caught fire. In their 24-7 loss to the Jets, Steve Slaton was not effective, Matt Schaub was disappointing, and the Jets ran for 150 yards on 49 attempts while protecting their rookie starter, Mark Sanchez.

Tennessee faced off against the defending Super Bowl champs, the Steelers. After an overtime slugfest, Tennessee dropped their battle on an OT field goal by Pittsburgh as the Steelers were victorious 13-10.

In the only divisional match-up, Jacksonville played the Colts.

Manning and Co. would have a rough start with a redzone interception, followed by a mid-field fumble by Joseph Addai.

After failing to convert a 4th and 1 at midfield in the closing minutes of the game, holding a 14-12 lead, the Colts’ defense would take a stand and force Jacksonville into a turnover on downs to hold onto the victory, leaving the Colts as the only team to be 1-0 in possibly the toughest division in football.

I’ll Tell You This: I’m sorry, did I just report that the Colts’ defense won the game? I think I did. And, the Colts now hold their own destiny for the rest of the season in the AFC South.

The AFC, and perhaps the entire NFL, must be asking themselves this: If Manning and his offense can get on track, and they presumably will, how dominant can this team be with a stronger defense, which get even better when vaunted safety Bob Sanders returns?

3. What a “Brees”

Drew Brees torched the Detroit Lions on Sunday completing 26 of 34 passes for 358 yards and 6, yes count them six, touchdowns in the Saints’ 45-27 romp of the cellar dweller Lions.

I’ll Tell You This: Everyone in the league has done nothing but talk about Peyton Manning and Tom Brady for the past 5 or 6 years. Recently talk has swung to Eli Manning, Big Ben, and Aaron Rodgers, who, among others, have been anointed the next line of MVPs of the NFL.

But Drew Brees is the real deal and deserves to be mentioned with the former group, not the latter.

He may even be…possibly…the best quarterback in the NFL right now.

Only time will tell, but I would even hazard to guess that Tom Brady’s 50 TD record is in serious jeopardy. Get over it NFL, I know he is not the most marketable player in the league, but Drew Brees could very well be your best.

4. The Replacements

With Week 1 in the books, several injuries have taken center stage. The most prominent injury is that of Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher. After dislocating his wrist, Urlacher is now done for the season. The Bears immediately looked at signing former Buc Derrick Brooks, but decided on Tim Shaw instead.

The other injury that has swept headlines is the broken ribs of Donovan McNabb. After what seemed to be a late hit in the end zone, McNabb left the game to find out the he had cracked ribs. The Eagles have activated Michael Vick, but since he is unavailable until week three, they have pursued and signed QB Jeff Garcia, and have released WR Hank Baskett to make room on their roster.

I’ll Tell You This: In Chicago, the loss of Urlacher is devastating. Brooks could be a nice player, but he is older and will not run this defense the way the Urlacher did. Who is Tim Shaw again?

In Philly, the stage has now been set for a three-way QB controversy that may very well find itself headlining on Jerry Springer. It’s my guess that things will never be the same in Philly, and I don’t see this situation working itself out.

5. The Great White Hype

In my final story of the week, I am going to do something a little different. I’m going to rant. No story, just a rant. So……

I’ll Tell You This:

I am sick and tired of hearing how awesome two players are. One is in the NFL; the other is a NCAA football player.

First, let me address the player who has already been involved in Heisman talk, True Freshman QB from USC, Matt Barkley.

I watched the Ohio State game. It was a phenomenal game, and USC truly outplayed Ohio State in the 4th quarter to get the W. However, following the end of the game the announcer, as it seems all of Sports Media have been doing, began to talk about Barkley and what a great game he had, and how he was truly a candidate in the Heisman Race.

For the love of God, he completed less than 50% of his passes (15 for 31) for 195 yards and one interception. No Touchdowns. Wow. If this is what it takes to be a Heisman candidate then I hereby nominate myself, and I think that I could possibly contend with those numbers.

My other complaint is focused on Green Bay Packers QB, Aaron Rogers.

His stats from Sunday’s bout with Chicago? He completed 17-28 passes for 184 yards and 1 touchdown. Not that this is a bad performance, but it is FAR from what I would consider an MVP performance, especially given the performance by Drew Brees this week. With the hype surrounding Rodgers this season, I expected more. 

All in all, it was a phenomenal Kick Off, with a lot of exciting games and finishes, and perhaps even a few surprises. Feel free to comment and tell me what your favorite moment of NFL Kick Off weekend was. I’d love to hear it.

Until next week kids…

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You can follow Myles on twitter at www.twitter.com/mylesb3269

* – Tom Brady photo credit: More Than an Electrician

* – Drew Brees photo credit: The Campus Socialite

Fantasy Football: Week 2 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

Update: The Week 3 Start Em, Sit Em lineup advice and projections post is up.

I am nothing if not accountable, and I come to you a humbled man this week. I let you and myself down with start ‘em, sit ‘em advice that left much to be desired in Week 1.

Here is the Week 1 start ‘em, sit ‘em column if you’d like to review, but I’ll lay out the hits and misses right here for you. 

• Start ‘em hits: Vernon Davis…barely, in a PPR league…maybe? (5 catches, 40 yards)
• Start ‘em misses: David Garrard (122 yds, 0 TDs); Willie Parker (19 yds, 0 TDs); Braylon Edwards (1 rec, 13 yds, 0TDs); New England D/ST (24 points allowed, 1 turnover)
• Sit ‘em hits: Matt Schaub (166 yds, 0TDs); Chris Johnson & LenDale White (8.6 fantasy points combined); Miami D/ST (19 points allowed, 0 turnovers)
• Sit ‘em misses: Roy Williams (3 rec, 86 yds, 1 TD); Kellen Winslow (5 rec, 30 yds, 1 TD)

So, not a great start. 

In fact, the results of my Week 1 start ‘em, sit ‘em lineup advice reminds me a little bit of the Carolina Panthers…with me playing the role of Jake Delhomme: high hopes, big expectations…and then a depressing thud as interceptions get fired all over the field.

But, in my defense, in the “others” category for start ‘em I did nail all of the three QBs listed — Hasselbeck, Flacco, and Shaun Hill, plus I recommended Julius Jones. And I told you to sit Steve Slaton! That should count for something right?

Umm…no.

We’re all about results here. Like fantasy football, it’s about touchdowns (or LOTS of yards) and I did not get into the endzone enough last week with my primary start ‘em, sit ‘em recommendations at each position. But what we love about sports is that there is always next week…so I am looking forward to Week 2.

I’m here to rebound, both for you and for myself, to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start. And no, I will not give into the temptation to pick obvious ones (start Adrian Peterson against Detroit!) just to pad my stats.

Let’s get right to it.

Fantasy Football

Week 2 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

Week 2 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Quarterbacks

Start ‘Em: Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears (vs Pittsburgh Steelers)

What, am I crazy? Start the guy who had 4 picks on national TV last week against the defending champs and their suffocating defense this week?

I say yes, and there is one primary reason why: no Troy Polamalu.

The lynchpin of the Steelers’ secondary is out with a sprained MCL, which will make Pittsburgh’s D more susceptible to the pass and less dangerous overall. Granted, the Bears’ WR corps leaves a lot to be desired, but I think the determination of Jay Cutler will overcome that.

Cutler may be a bit of a whiny douche, but he’s a very talented and prideful player. He also did not complete a pass to RB Matt Forte in Week 1, and only a single one to TE Greg Olsen, which I have to think will change after taking a look at the film.

The Bears are at home and will do everything to avoid going 0-2. I’m not sold on Cutler as a consistent fantasy starter throughout the season, but I do like him this week despite the matchup.

Others I like: Jason Campbell, Washington (vs St. Louis); Trent Edwards, Buffalo (vs Tampa Bay)

Sit ‘Em: Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts (@ Miami Dolphins)

Let me guess what you are probably thinking right now: this idiot is recommending Jay Cutler as a start against Pittsburgh and Peyton Manning as a guy you should sit? Is he insane?

Well, perhaps.

But I don’t think so in this particular case for this particular week.

Courtesy of Stats Inc. (via Yahoo Sports), Peyton Manning has thrown for 16 TDs and 18 INTs lifetime against the Dolphins. Now, clearly that stat line spans a decade and many different coaches and players for the Dolphins. But considering that Manning will be going into a hornet’s nest (on the road in Miami, home opener for Dolphins, Monday night, team coming off of a bad loss and looking for redemption, etc.) and will not have Anthony Gonzalez, I’m not all that optimistic about his chances.

The Colts offense is becoming a little worrisome. They could not establish a consistent ground attack in Week 1 against Jacksonville, which they need for Manning’s play-action to be effective. Miami, despite its struggles to contain Matt Ryan, did an effective job of limiting the Falcons’ powerful ground attack last Sunday (3.0 yards per carry for Michael Turner). 

I think an emotional Dolphins’ D bottles up Manning and the Colts offense, at least enough that he is limited to one TD pass and harassed into a turnover or two. If you have a decent backup for Manning, this might be a good week to use him.

Others I don’t like: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati (@ Green Bay)

Week 2 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Running Backs:

Start ‘Em: Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants (@ Dallas Cowboys)

I liked Ahmad Bradshaw before the season started because he was stepping into a big void of opportunity left by the departure of Derrick Ward. After one game the returns are pretty solid, and I think his matchup on Sunday night against the Cowboys is a good one.

First off, Bradshaw got 12 carries against the Redskins last week, so we can see that some touches will be there. He also carried for 60 yards, a 5.0 yard average, against a pretty good run defense. Plus, he added 3 receptions, to get his total touches up to 15. All in all, a solid first week effort for Bradshaw against a good defense.

With the injury to Danny Ware, the Giants have announced that Bradshaw will be handling kickoff return duties this week, which should net him a few more touches and some extra all-purpose yards against a Cowboys’ special teams unit that was been a pretty significant question mark this offseason.

Most importantly, Bradshaw and the Giants are going up against a defense that is pretty adept at rushing the passer but not quite so adept at stopping the run. Last week, despite being behind most of the game and losing, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers torched the Cowboys on the ground over 160 yards and a pretty hefty per carry average. Cadillac Williams ran for 97 yards on 13 carries and scored a TD, while Derrick Ward ran for 62 yards on 12 carries and also scored.

The Jacobs-Bradshaw combo is just as good and they have a better O-Line than Tampa. I actually like the Cowboys to win this game, but I think the Giants will be able to get some work done on the ground. We certainly know that they will be committed to doing so.

You already know you’re starting Brandon Jacobs, but I wouldn’t hesitate to throw Bradshaw in there as a flex. This a good matchup for him.

Others I like: Thomas Jones, New York Jets (vs New England); Mike Bell, New Orleans (@ Philadelphia…but check on Pierre Thomas throughout the week.)

Sit ‘Em: Julius Jones, Seattle (@ San Francisco)

Yes, Julius Jones had a good game last week, but there are a few things you need to remember:

1. He’s Julius Jones.
2. The Seahawks were playing the Rams last week.
3. The 49ers are coached by Mike Singletary.

If Seattle is going to win this game, they are going to have to do it through the air. I think San Francisco has a chance to have a pretty stout run defense this year, and they gave a glimpse of it last week by bottling up Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells in Arizona. Granted, Tim Hightower had 12 receptions out of the backfield against them, but Jones has never been a guy to catch a lot of passes out of the backfield.

Enjoy it when Julius plays teams like the Rams; otherwise, remember who he is and consider his track record. The 49ers are an up-and-coming team that will be fired up for their home opener. I think Matt Hasselbeck will have to win this one with his arm if the Seahawks are to come into San Fran and get a W.

Others I don’t like: Cedric Benson, Cincinnati (@ Green Bay); Steve Slaton, Houston (@ Tennessee); Kevin Smith, Detroit (@ Minnesota)

Week 2 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Wide Receivers:

Start ‘Em: Terrell Owens, Buffalo (vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

He only had two catches on three targets Monday night, and he’s coming off a toe injury that sidelined him most of the preseason. If you’re a little bit skittish about T.O. right now, you’re well within your right to be so.

But I wouldn’t be skittish about starting him this week against Tampa Bay. And the truth is, you probably spent a high draft pick on T.O. so you may not have any other choice but to start him. (Don’t worry, I’m not taking the easy way out in the WR Sit ‘Em to balance out recommending T.O.)

Trent Edwards and the Bills proved, somewhat surprisingly, that they can move the ball on offense with their performance against the Patriots. And remember that Bill Belichick’s defensive strategy is usually to try to take away the opposing team’s #1 threat. The Patriots did that by doubling and bottling up T.O.

Buffalo plays Tampa Bay last week, which got absolutely shredded by Tony Romo and his trio of WRs last week. I don’t think Buffalo will have that much success against the Bucs, but they’ll get some work done through the air.

And after only being targeted three times in Week 1, you know T.O. will be both motivated and vocal about the need to get him the rock.

His huge games will be fewer and further between this season, but I think this is one of them. 

Others I like: Desean Jackson, Philadelphia (vs New Orleans); Brandon Marshall, Denver (vs Cleveland); Percy Harvin, Minnesota (@ Deroit); 

Sit ‘Em: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (vs Oakland)

As with T.O., you probably have to start Dwayne Bowe because of where you drafted him. If you have no other options, keep Bowe in the lineup because you have to and he will get his fair share of targets.

But if you’re stacked at WR, this could be a week when Bowe hits your bench as he will be matched up with Nnamdi Asomugha, against whom Bowe has yet to catch a TD pass in his career. Last year, Bowe had 8 catches for 117 yards in two games against Oakland. As a rookie, he had 7 catches for 147 yards.

The weakness of the Oakland defense is their ability to stop the run, although they were more effective than expected in Week 1 against San Diego. And while Philip Rivers completed 24 passes for 252 yards on Monday night, look a little deeper: only 11 of the completions were to WRs, the rest went to RBs and TEs.

There is also flux at the QB position in Kansas City, as well as an entire team getting used to a new offensive system. Bowe had 4 catches and a TD last week with Brodie Croyle at QB, but only tallied 40 yards. Who will be starting this week? Matt Cassel? Croyle?

There are enough question marks surrounding Bowe this week that I’d be wary. He may still garner 5-6 fantasy points because he could accumulate a few catches and some yards, but don’t expect big numbers. 

Others I don’t like: Laveraneus Coles, Cincinnati (@ Green Bay); Donald Driver, Green Bay (vs Cincinnati); 

Week 2 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Tight Ends:

Start ‘Em: Robert Royal, Cleveland Browns (@ Denver)

If you watched the Browns-Vikings game on Sunday, you noticed a few things:

1. Brady Quinn often had time to throw, but there rarely appeared to be WRs open down the field.
2. Quinn and Braylon Edwards simply are not on the same page yet.
3. Quinn looked in the direction of TE Robert Royal a lot.

In fact, Quinn targeted Royal nine times on Sunday, resulting in four catches, 60 yards, a TD for Royal. With the Browns’ WR corps likely to continue to struggle, and with Quinn’s well-known deficiencies throwing the ball deep down the field, I think Quinn will again be looking at Royal early and often.

Denver did do a nice job of shutting down the Cincinnati tight ends last week, but the Bengals rarely involve their TE anyway so I don’t read too much into that.

The targets for Royal are not going to stop. If you are unsettled at tight end, he could be a solid play through at least the first few weeks of the season, until Brady Quinn can get more comfortable throwing the ball down the field to Braylon and the Browns’ other WRs.

Others I like: Brent Celek, Philadelphia (vs New Orleans); Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay (@ Buffalo); Kevin Boss, New York Giants (@ Dallas)

Sit ‘Em: Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans (@ Philadelphia)

Yes, Shockey caught 2 TD passes last week and is a part of the best offense in the league, so it’s hard to sit him. But his entire value from last week is wrapped up in those TD catches (he had only 4 catches for 31 yards), which are hard to predict and expect from week to week.

Add to that the fact that the Saints are playing a much better defense this week in Philadelphia, and one that is very familiar with Shockey from his days in New York, and I think we could see a reversion to the no-TD Shockey that we became accustomed to during his first season with New Orleans.

And what do you trust more: a 16-game schedule during which he caught no TDs, or one game against a team that’s lost 18 in a row in which he caught two?

I thought so.

With Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, and Robert Meachem all more dynamic downfield playmakers than Shockey, he is the fifth option when Drew Brees drops back to pass. Shockey fattened up against the porous Lions, but this week the law of averages pulls his fantasy numbers back to what we’ve come to expect from him.

Others I don’t like: Owen Daniels, Houston (@ Tennessee); Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler, Denver (vs Cleveland)

Week 2 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em Defense/Special Teams:

Start ‘Em: Green Bay Packers D/ST (vs Cincinnati)

How can you not like the Packers’ D right now? They stifled the Bears in Week 1 and goaded Jay Cutler into 4 interceptions. They also have players like Charles Woodson and Al Harris who are always threats to take one to the house.

The real key, however, is the Packers’ improvement in the front 7 and their ability to stop the run. In Week 1, the Pack held Bears phenom Matt Forte to 55 yards rushing and nada out of the backfield as a receiver.

Cincinnati comes into Green Bay with a far less accomplished and dynamic running back in Cedric Benson. They also have a passing game that struggled against Denver in Week 1 and still looks as if it needs time to get in sync with Carson Palmer back under center and no T.J. Houshmandzadeh on the outside.

I think Chad Ochocinco will get his on Sunday, but that’s about it. Green Bay is one of the emerging contenders in the NFC and they’ll play like it at home against the Bengals.

Others I like: New England Patriots (@ New York Jets); Washington Redskins (vs St. Louis)

Sit ‘Em: Philadelphia Eagles D/ST (vs New Orleans)

This one is all about the matchup.

Philadelphia has a very good defense, forced lots of turnovers last week against Carolina, and will be a solid start most weeks. This week, however, they face the Saints’ juggernaut. And until the Saints and Drew Brees provide a reason to doubt them, I’m sitting any defense that plays against them.

With Troy Polamalu out for Pittsburgh right now, there is no unit in the NFL that I trust more than the Saints’ offense. Sorry Philly.

Others I don’t like: New York Jets (vs New England); Baltimore Ravens (@ San Diego)

It’s early in the week, so obviously injuries could wreak havoc on these predictions, but I’ll update this post if anything pertinent happens. As always, feel free to submit any lineup questions you may have in the comment section and I’ll answer them as soon as I’m able.

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* – Jay Cutler photo credit: Bleacher Report

* – Jeremy Shockey photo credit: Ted Jackson / The Times-Picayune via Nola.com

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts Week 1 Preview

Guess what kids? It’s that time again! The NFL season kicked off tonight with the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Tennessee Titans.

Finally.

Life seems to have such a void without football, especially considering that all people like me have done for the last six or seven months is talk about football. Now…finally…we can stop just talking and watch.

The Indianapolis Colts kick off their season against division rival Jacksonville Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Indianapolis at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Changes have occurred throughout the roster and on the coaching staff, and these changes have been the focus of the Colts off-season. The exit of long time head coach Tony Dungy was the headliner, but the changes were felt all the way down to a change in punters from longtime Colt veteran Hunter Smith to rookie punter Pat McAffe. And there were plenty of other changes in between.

Jacksonville and Indy have what has become quite an intense rivalry, regardless of the year-by-year success of each team. The Colts hold the overall series advantage with a 12-4 head-to-head record, but in recent years they have struggled against Jacksonville’s running game.

Here’s all the info on the game according to MSF’s NFL Week 1 Preview and TV Schedule:

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)

• Jaguars-Colts Date: Sunday, September 13th
• Jaguars-Colts TV & Kickoff Time: 1:00 ET on CBS
• Jaguars-Colts Location: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis
• Jaguars-Colts Announcers: Kevin Harlan and Solomon Wilcots
• Jaguars-Colts Point Spread: IND -7
• Jaguars-Colts Over-Under: 44.5
• StubHub: Jaguars-Colts tickets at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis
• StubHub: Indianapolis Colts tickets
• StubHub: Jacksonville Jaguars tickets
• StubHub: Get Great Tickets on all NFL tickets

Like I said earlier, the Jags have dominated the Colts on the ground in recent years led by with their two-headed monster of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. The monster was cut in half this past off-season, however, when Taylor left Jacksonville and signed with the New England Patriots.

That being said, MJD is one of the league’s toughest backs, although this past preseason was somewhat unkind to Jones-Drew. The Philadelphia Eagles went Tonya Harding on MJD’s leg in their preseason bout. Luckily for Jones-Drew and the Jags, the injury wasn’t serious and turned out to be only a contusion. There’s a chance that it may still be somewhat tender come Sunday, but I expect MJD to be usual battering ram self.

The Jags also added one of the NFL’s premium route runners during the off-season: Torry Holt. Holt had a sub-par season last year with the Rams, but do not count him out. Look for David Garrard to hit Holt on third down every chance he can get, and Holt will convert.

Indy’s defense has also changed significantly. Safety standout Bob Sanders will most likely not play, and will be replaced by Melvin Bullitt, who subbed very well for Sanders most of last season. The biggest place the Colts have tried to bolster is in the middle as they drafted two defensive tackles and brought back the troubled Ed Johnson. Jacksonville will provide a great test to see if the Colts’ defense has truly moved past the “bend but don’t break” mantra they have held for so long.

New head coach Jim Caldwell didn’t get a lot of looks at his new defense as Marlin Jackson, Kelvin Hayden, as well as many of the other defensive starters did not play much in the preseason due to nagging injuries. Thus, there is a possibility that continuity — or, more specifically, a lack thereof — may perhaps be a bigger issue than any Colts fan or coach would like to admit.

I could sit and talk about Peyton Manning and the Colts offense for hours upon hours, but in order to be brief we’ll talk about the changes and the question marks.

Joseph Addai looks like he is back at 100%, and the addition of 2008 NCAA leading rusher Donald Brown will hopefully improve on what was quite a dismal 2008 rushing season. 

The departure of future Hall-of-Famer Marvin Harrison leaves a lot of question marks in the WR corps, with 3rd-year player Anthony Gonzalez expected to step into Marvin’s shoes. Rookie Austin Collie locked up the 3rd WR spot on the roster, and no doubt TE Dallas Clark will find himself in the slot.

The biggest advantage the Colts have on Sunday is that they are playing at home in the very impressive Lucas Oil Stadium. They will be in front of a sold-out crowd and one that has been deemed as one of the loudest crowds in the NFL.

The key to the game is for the Colts is either to handcuff MJD or establish an early lead and make David Garrard have to beat them through the air. If this is the case, Pro Bowlers Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis can “pin their ears back” and put pressure on the Jags QB.

The Jags must establish the run to be successful, as well as get pressure on the three-time MVP Peyton Manning. Zone coverages and blitz schemes will force Peyton into quick decisions and, if the Jags are  lucky, flush him out of the pocket. The Jags will likely take their chances letting the Colts beat them on the ground rather than giving way to Peyton and the Colts always dangerous aerial assault.

My Colts-Jaguars prediction is to take the Colts minus the points, with the final score of this game being somewhere in the realm of 27-13.

Jacksonville is not the team they used to be and with the emergence of the upstart Texans, the Jags may very well find themselves in the cellar of the AFC’s toughest division in 2009.

I do, however, anticipate this game to “feel” closer than the score shows. I expect a tough, hard-fought game throughout, with the Colts dominating the 4^th quarter to pull away and seal the victory late, led by one of the NFL’s best pass rushing tandems.

As usual Colts v Jaguars will be a great watch.

Thank God football has returned to us! Gone are the Sunday Honey-Do lists. Gone are the awkward Lifetime movies and Family Guy repeats.

The NFL is back boys and girls! Viva la Sunday!

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You can follow BigMB on twitter by going to www.twitter.com/mylesb3269

I’ll Tell You This: The Meaning of Bradford’s Injury, ND’s Win, and Why the Jets and Lions are Making a Mistake

[Editor's note: This is the second installment of Big MB's weekly post entitled I'll Tell You This, in which he tells us all what in the sports world -- to quote the great Peter Griffin -- is grinding his gears. Enjoy...and stay tuned for an upcoming appearance by Big MB on the soon-to-be resume MSF podcast.]

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1. Sam Bradford

This past Saturday, Oklahoma was upset in new the Dallas Cowboys stadium by BYU. What’s worse is that last year’s Heisman Trophy winning quarterback, Sam Bradford, injured his throwing shoulder on his way to the ground. Sooner Nation stopped breathing for a moment, however with recent reports it seems that the Sooner’s Slinger will only miss 2-4 weeks.

I’ll Tell You This: For all of you skeptics of Mark Sanchez and other athletes coming to pro sports early, and for all of you haters of high schoolers jumping to NBA, this is the case against you. Bradford decided to stick around one more year when he could have been the #1 pick last year. What if this was a career ending injury? Even though it’s not at this point, what if it severely affects Bradford’s play?  Bradford would possibly never get to live his dream of playing pro football. And worse, what would be his future profession after dumping all of his time into becoming an A-level quarterback?

2. Saving Weis?

Charlie Weis and all of South Bend (and those who support the Irish) may breathe just a little easier after Notre Dame pitched a shutout against Nevada. Jimmy Clausen finally looked like the quarterback that he has been hyped to be, completing 15 of 18 passes for 315 yards and 4 touchdowns.

I’ll Tell You This: No coach in sports is under as much pressure as Charlie Weis is right now. Notre Dame MUST win, and look good in doing so. However, this was Nevada. It’s the first week of the season. The team that should have won did. Next week brings bitter rival the Big Blue of Michigan. Someone shoot Charlie a text and let him know his job is still on the line.

3. Al Davis Strikes Again

Once again, Bill Bellicheck is a genius and Al Davis is a fool. This past weekend the New England Patriots traded DE Richard Seymour to the Oakland Raiders for a first round pick in 2011. Seymour is getting older and has seemingly started to lose a step, but is still an upgrade to a porous Raiders D-Line. However, the question remains: is he worth a first round pick?

I’ll Tell You This: There is not a soul on the earth that can honestly tell me that Al Davis made a good move, or ever will. Seymour is a “right now” type of guy, and Oakland is FAR from a “right now” type of team. There is no doubt that the Patriots will likely be picking top 5 in the 2011 draft, and that is something that no one in the entire NFL (save for New England) wants to see (and it’s possible that Al Davis won’t even live long enough to see). Al Davis needs to let go of this historic NFL franchise or they will never succeed. It’s definitely the black hole….a place where NFL players and winning go to die.

4. The Rookies

NFL rookies take the cake this year as both Matthew Stafford of the Detroit Lions and Mark Sanchez of the New York Jets will both get the starting nod at quarterback for their respective teams this season.

I’ll Tell You This: Although I think both guys are talented and will be good quarterbacks in the NFL, both teams are making mistakes starting them. Yes, some quarterbacks do well when thrown right into the mix (see Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts). However, in many cases it hurls what may have been a talented superstar into the cursed pool of the draft day flops (See Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington, and David Carr). And some never can turn it around afterwards. Both teams have respectable veteran starters in Daunte Culpepper (Detroit) and Kellen Clemens (NY).  I can only hope for the sake of these two QB’s that they follow Peyton’s path to success and not Ryan Leaf’s path to America’s Funniest Home Videos.

5. The Knockout Heard Round the World

Everyone has seen it. Most of us saw it every hour for 48 straight hours on every sport program on television. And while for a fan of MMA like myself it was somewhat exciting to watch, America was once again taken aback by another sports thug when Oregon standout running back LeGarrette Blount sucker punched Boise State’s Byron Hout after Hout spouted a little trash talk to Blount. Blount made things worse by almost going Ron Artest-style on a couple fans on his way to the locker room. It took 4 or 5 police officers and building security to keep him from broaching the stands.

I’ll Tell You This: Although it is very sad to see a player throw away his career for lack of ability to keep his attitude in control, I do find it funny that the game started with both teams meeting at midfield for a handshake in light of “Good Sportmanship Week.” What I also find funny is that Blount ran his mouth ALL week before the game and then after getting held in check and to career lows, couldn’t take what he had been dishing out. The senior received a one year suspension, thus ending his college career. What will he do with his time off? Maybe he should give the Winnepeg Blue Bombers a call. He can hang out with Pacman Jones. They would make a cute couple. Canada can have him too.

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You can follow BigMB on Twitter by going to www.twitter.com/mylesb3269.

Indianapolis Colts Preseason Wrap-Up and Season Outlook

This has not really been a typical Colts preseason so far. 

First, they have won only one game so far.  Second, we have not been able to cheer on Jim Sorgi while he gets what has been historically his largest amount of playing time.  Instead we got our first look at Curtis Painter, the Purdue grab who can play but is still a little rough around the edges.  I do think that he has some potential and he has landed in a situation that will allow him to grow and mature as an NFL quarterback.  Depending on what goes on with Sorgi, he could even be holding the clipboard this season as the number two quarterback.

Staying on offense, a little rework in the offseason (i.e. jettisoning Marvin Harrison) has seen Anthony Gonzalez move into the #2 receiver position, which opens up the battle for the #3 receiver slot that has not yet been determined. 

I think Gonzalez being entrenched as the #2 guy on the outside is just what he needs. He will get consistent playing time and his presence should relieve some of the coverage on Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark.  It essentially forces the opposing defense to pick it’s poison, which has always been a strength of the Colts’ offense.  Who are you going to loosen your coverage on? 

As we all know, just give Peyton an opening and he will get the open receiver the ball. 

The running back stable has, in my opinion, gotten better with the current youth movement.  I am buying into the hype that Donald Brown will take away some of Joseph Addai’s carries.  Depending on Addai’s health and his ability to put last year’s disappointment behind him, Brown may even become the starter at some point in 2009.

Moving over to the other side of the ball, to the defense, when you have Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis up front you are in pretty good shape.  So far in the preseason these two are looking really good.  My hope is that the correct complement to the outside pressure has been found in the middle, a spot that has been troublesome for the Colts in the past. Last year, most teams would run up the middle to avoid having to deal with dominant defensive ends.  The regular season will prove if they have found the correct mixture to stop teams come playoff time. 

The defensive backs are the same core that have been in place for at least three years now and are led by Bob Sanders, who is currently on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list along with kicker Adam Vinatieri.  While the DBs have caused me frustratrion in the pas,t I still believe that this group of defensive backs are a solid one and have the ability to work in a nickel and dime package as well as anyone in the league.

I would be surprised to see the Colts in the AFC title game against a team like the Patriots this season.  However, from what I can see, the only real liability this season is the coaching staff.  I am curious to see how they handle the team, which is the most glaring unknown as we head into 2009.

Colts 2009 Preview: Can Peyton and Co. Get to 12+ Wins for 7th Straight Season?

As the 2009 season quickly approaches, The Indianapolis Colts look toward yet another season. This time, however, there is a much different look and feel to what has become one of the most prolific teams in the NFL.

The coaching staff has experienced the most turnover, starting with the departure of head coach Tony Dungy, who was replaced by protégé and former assistant coach Jim Caldwell. Several other coaching changes also have been made in addition to Caldwell taking over.

Follow the links to StubHub for great deals on Indianapolis Colts tickets and all 2009 NFL tickets.

Longtime offensive coordinator Tom Moore retired as well, as did offensive line coach Howard Mudd, although both were brought back to the team before the start of training camp as “special advisors.” In addition, defensive coordinator Ron Meeks was replaced by Larry Coyer, who has been assigned the challenge of turning a mundane defense into at least a respectable one. And the most scrutinized position of late is that of new special teams coach Ray Rychlesky, who replaced Russ Purnell.

Other less notable coaching changes also have been made this offseason in an attempt to correct what was viewed by many as a subpar 2008 season despite a sixth straight 12+ win season, as well as a wildcard playoff berth, the first round ejection by 8-8 San Diego that capped the 2008 season.

As to players on the field, the draft brought much needed help at running back and on the defensive line.

The first round brought the Colts RB Donald Brown from Connecticut, who will hopefully boost a subpar running game and provide a sort of “Thunder and Lightning” combination between he and incumbent starter Joseph Addai.

Defensive tackles Fili Moala (Southern Cal) and Terrance Taylor (Michigan) were aquired in the second and fourth rounds, respectively. while receiver Austin Collie (BYU) was added in the fourth as well. Pat McAfee, a punter, was drafted to replace long time booter Hunter Smith who has found a new home in Washington with the Redskins.

Let’s break down each of the three units as the Colts get ready for the regular season, which is now less than two weeks away.

The Offense (The Good)

Of course any team with Peyton Manning will be successful offensively. The good news is that Manning’s knee is at full strength, and we won’t have to wait a hand full of games in the regular season to watch the timing get ironed out, as happened last year.

Joseph Addai has shown signs of returning to his former self in the preseason thus far, and rookie running back Donald Brown continues to impress. The question remains, however, will the offensive line be able to consistently open holes for these two feature backs to run through?

The line is healthier than last year, but there is a glaring issue in the worst possible spot: Peyton’s blind side. OT Tony Ugoh has been replaced as a starter by Charlie Johnson, due to the fact that no one on the coaching staff believes that Ugoh is working his hardest, nor living up to the potential his draft position and salary would suggest. However, Johnson has not been much better thus far, with the Colt’s O-line giving up a horrific three sacks in just the first possession alone of the first preseason game against the Vikings.

The most intriguing position on the Colts offense comes at wide receiver. With the departure of long time #1 receiver Marvin Harrison, the Colts are looking to fill a significant void of experience and production. Reggie Wayne will become the #1 WR (and basically was last year) while 3rd-year man Anthony Gonzalez will take over the #2 spot.

But who will be the #3 WR in the slot?

Dallas Clark, the Colts starting tight end, will no doubt be put into the slot with various personnel groupings. Through two weeks of the preseason, we have seen Pierre Garcon and rookie Austin Collie making great plays and looking to be solid contenders for the slot when the Colts go 3-wide. 

Tom Santi and Jacob Tamme look to have locked up the backup roles to starting TE Dallas Clark.

The Defense (The Bad)

Amidst all of the many questions that surround one of the NFL’s worst third down defenses is, what about Bob? It’s been a while since Bob Sanders has played an entire season, but when he is in the lineup we all know that his presence is invaluable as a stabilizing and inspirational force  in the Colts’ D.

The linebackers looks solid, anchored by Gary Brackett, Phillip Wheeler, and Clint Session, but still seems somewhat weak in certain coverage and run schemes and situation.

The defensive line seems to have improved, adding a couple of 300+ pounders, but the injury to Raheem Brock could make things a little more challenging. The pass rush, anchored by DE’s Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, seems as strong as ever; but, can the Colts stop the run?

Only time will tell if Larry Coyer can make a major difference replacing Ron Meeks as the leader of what was ranked as one of the worst run defenses in the league last year, as well as one of the worst defenses at getting off of the field on third down.

A lot of questions remain for the Colts on defense, and only time will tell how good the D can be in 2009.

Special Teams (The Ugly)

Where do I start with the special teams?

The Colts can boast that they have one of the most reliable placekickers in the league in Adam Vinatieri. However, the lack of touchbacks, the poor kick coverage, and poor kick returns that are often riddled with turnovers and bad decisions, have plagued the Colts for years and made both the offense and defense have to work much harder to attain victory.

They say that defense wins championships, but I personally believe that special teams plays just as important a role, if not slightly more. There must be change. There must be improvement. Need I say more? Ray Rychlesky, the pressure is on from Day 1.

2009 Outlook

This season’s schedule seems a little soft at first glance, but there could be teams that were weak last season that may be more of a challenge this year. The Colts will host the Jaguars, Seahawks, 49ers, Texans, Patriots, Titans, Broncos, and Jets, and will find themselves traveling to the Dolphins, Cardinals, Titans, Rams, Ravens, Texans, Jaguars, and Bills.

Will the Colts make it to 12 wins for a seventh consecutive season? Las Vegas thinks not. The over-under for the Colts is currently 10. My prediction is somewhere between 11 and 12 wins, but, of course, that’s why they play the games!

There has been a lot of change in Indianapolis this offseason, and the Colts have more competition in the AFC then ever before. Only time will tell if Peyton Manning will win his second Super Bowl, or perhaps a record 4th MVP. He’s Peyton, so anything is possible.

Either way, here’s hoping on another fun ride and successful season for the Colts — one of the NFL’s best and most consistent team over the course of this decade.

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* – Bob Sanders / Marlin Jackson photo credit: NFL Gridiron Gab

ESPN’s Current Top 10 Fantasy Football Players: Over or Under

Yes, not long now before every fantasy football nut is tearing apart the Internet and those extremely overpriced magazines to help them decide who to draft, when, where, why and how!  This year I am at a disadvantage, as I am passing on my knowledge to all of you.  My competition in the Midwest Sports Fans Fantasy Football League will be able to gain insight into my strategies and opinions, which for the most part are nails, and use that against me. 

Oh well, it is what it is, and you will still see me in the Super Bowl.

[Editor's Note: Kurt's trash talk has been left in, unedited, because...well...we all need a good laugh every now and then.]

Onto ESPN’s current Fantasy Football Top 10 players based on their projected 2009 stats through their point scoring system, and whether or not I think each player will over- or under-perform the projections.

T-1.  Tom Brady, QB, Patriots (288 Points)  OVER!!!  Even though I think that New England will run more this year than any of their previous three years, you have to have faith in the quarterback with the most prolific statistical passing year ever, which was only two years ago.  Brady has more weapons now than he did then, including a better running game then ever before.  The Patriots will, however, run more for two reasons.  First, to keep the defense honest and avoid heavy blitzes intended to either make Brady a non-factor, or remove him all together from the game.  Secondly, to remove some pressure from the offensive line in having to protect the greatest quarterback ever 40 to 50 times a game.  If healthy, Brady will have another 300 plus point season.  He is my number 1 overall pick.

T-1.  Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (288 Points)  Rodgers tied with Brady?  Under, but not by much.  Compare Rodgers’ weapons with Brady’s… that’s right, you can’t.  There should be no tie here.  Although Rodgers finished second among QB’s last year with 286 ESPN fantasy football points, the Packers will have to establish the run this year to win games.  Establishing the run is not only a quarterback’s best friend, but the defense’s as well.  Ground and pound eats minutes off of the clock, allowing the defensive personnel time to recover in between possessions.  There are several other QB’s that I would take over Rodgers this year.

3.  Drew Brees, QB, Saints (287 Points)  Over, and over Rodgers in my opinion.  Brees was the #1 QB last year with 311 fantasy points.  I don’t see him beating last year’s numbers, but Brees has been an owner’s best friend since landing in N.O.  I do, however, have a somewhat bad feeling on Brees this year.  Look back on all of the previous fantasy gods who posted incredible numbers over the past few years.  Brady, Peyton Manning, Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Kurt Warner and on and on.  What do they all have in common?  After posting god-like statistical years, they came back and posted subpar years, if they played at all.  All of these players suffered from injuries or reduced effectivness the year following their epic years.  He should still be very, very good…but will Brees be added to the aforementioned list as a 2009 letdown?

4.  Peyton Manning, QB, Colts (277 Points) Under!  I may eat my words on this one, but there are too many intangibles that make me see it this way.  Manning finished sixth among QB’s last year with 253 points.  You cannot tell me that he will have a better year than last after losing Tony Dungy as his head coach and losing Marvin Harrison, his record setting wide receiver for over a decade.  Not to mention, the loss of Harrison will place more pressure on Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez.  Wayne often made double team attempts look stupid last year, but Gonzalez’s stats suffered when he was not burning slow safties out of the slot position.  And will Joseph Addai return to his 2007 form?  He must improve upon last year’s numbers to help Manning.  Peyton Manning is the smartest quarterback in the league, but is he smart enough to make up for all of these key losses?  Time will tell.

5.  Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings (272 Points)  Push.  Peterson, even with injuries, finished third among RBs last year with 237 points.  Their offense will be more productive this year regardless who is at QB. Farve, Jackson or Rosenfels will be able to produce in this offense, which will open up the door for A Pete.  I take Peterson after Brady and Brees.

6.  Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars (252 Points) Under.  There are questions surrounding MJD now that he has no Fred Taylor to spell him.  They formed a great 1-2 punch, and Jones-Drew has flourished in his role as a change-of-pace back.  Also, will David Garrard return to 2007 form?  If the box is stacked on MJD, he will not be successful.  Will he still be on special teams?  If so, the physical toll could hurt him offensively as the season goes along.  I would take several backs over MJD, starting with Michael Turner.

7.  Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals (250 Points)  Under.  Warner had 265 fantasy points last year.  At 38 years old, can he repeat that this year?  I think not.  At some point, Matt Lienhart will have to see the field become an actual NFL QB (he already has the salary and ego) and earn his ridiculous paycheck.  More importantly, can Warner stay healthy for a full season?  Will Arizona ever figure out how to run the ball?  Edgerrin James looked incredible on the ground in the playoffs, but that was to prove a point.  Without him on the roster, will they ever get more than .2 yards per carry out of touchdown monster Tim Hightower?  I avoid Kurt Warner in the first three rounds this year for these reasons.

8.  Matt Cassel, QB, Cheifs (247 points)  UNDER, UNDER, UNDER.  Have you lost your minds?  He scored 238 points last year with more weapons than a naval ship…more nukes than North Korea!  How can anyone possibly score more points on what has been a dismal Kansas City offense?  Cassell will make them better, and Dwayne Bowe’s stock goes way up with his addition, but New England’s offensive talent versus Kansas City’s talent, not to mention offensive line comparisons, is like comparing….well, never mind.  You get the picture.

T-9.  LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers (246 Points)  Push.  I take several players over LT, including the other two that ESPN had him tied with, just because they both have a greater upside than LT.  I do think he will benefit from Sproles getting more carries, as this combo could mirror the one-two punch that the Titans and Jaguars displayed last year.  LT only had 216 fantasy points last year, and even though his best years are behind him, if healthy, LT is still a top-5 running back.

T-9.  Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (246 Points)  Over.  Romo had 208 fantasy points last year while missing 4 games.  Romo lost a migraine when T.O. landed in Buffalo, and still his a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball.  Romo is in my top 10, and much higher than number 9.  Romo rebounds after the Terrell Owens brick!

T-9.  Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers (246 Points)  Push.  Rivers had 279 points last year, and benefited greatly from the Chargers’ inability to run the ball.  This will not be the case this year, and ESPN adjusted his numbers accordingly.  Rivers is still a no brainer though if available in the first round.

There was ESPN’s top 10 (11).  I am lost as to how Michael Turner and Jay Cutler were left off of this list.  And more importantly, how ESPN has David Garrard at #17.  There are at least 60 players I would take over Garrard.  I will say this about Garrard: he must produce this year to save his head coach’s job, now two years removed from his punting on long time starter Byron Leftwich.  Jack Del Rio may be sent packing if the Jags do not find themselves playing in late January. 

Getting back on track, Michael Turner is an absolute beast, and is arguably the best back in the NFL going into this season.  And Jay Cutler is going to play with such a large chip on his shoulder, he will only make those around him better, and has something he did not have in Denver: talented tight ends!

Want more info to follow heading into and throughout the season, I am now on facebook and twitter.

http://twitter.com/fraschettik

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Kurt Fraschetti

Senior Fantasy Football Writer-MidwestSportsFans.com

Breaking Down the Colts Part 1: Quarterbacks – Peyton Manning, Jim Sorgi, and Nate Davis?

The Colts had a great season last year. Not just great, it was amazing. They started out the season with a painful loss to the Chicago Bears, 29-13. That was the first time they lost their first game of the season since 2004, when they lost to the Patriots.

The Colts ended up starting out with a 3-4 record that year. That is just not how the Colts usually being a season. After that, however, the Colts shined. Bating the Patriots 18-15 was the start of their nine-game win streak. They improved to a 12-4 record and made the playoffs.

One of the anchors on CBS said that the Colts were the hottest team coming into the playoffs. Unfortunately, it didn’t look like it. They lost to the Chargers, 23-17 in overtime, when the Colts didn’t even have a chance to touch the ball in the extra session.

After that painful loss, Tony Dungy said that it was over for him in football (with the Colts at least) and he retired from the Colts and wrote a book called Uncommon. Fortunately, Colts had Jim Caldwell waiting in the wings, a man who has been with the staff for quite some time.

What can Caldwell do? Is he the man for the job? Can the Colts show the world they have a running game and they can be Super Bowl contenders? Let’s see what happens in 2009 and beyond.

I am going to break down the Colts. Every single player. Today, I start with the quarterbacks. Next time, I’ll go straight towards the running backs and fullbacks. Then, the time after that, it’s wide receivers. So you get the trend.

Let’s get started!

Indianapolis Colts Quarterbacks

Peyton Manning

2008 stats: 27 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 4,002 passing yards, and a 95.3 quarterback rating.

Peyton Manning started out horrible last year. After skipping training camp and missing the pre-season, Manning started out his first game of the season with a 81.8 rating. Even though he had no interceptions, the Bears dominated as Manning only completed 30-of-49 passes.

His next two games went worse. He had one touchdowns and two interceptions in both of those games. In the second game of the season, Manning had a 72.6 rating against the Vikings, with one touchdown and two picks. Manning had almost the same exact stats the next game against the Jaguars and had a 59.0 quarterback rating.

So, in his first three games of the season, Manning had three touchdowns and four interceptions with a 71.1 quarterback rating. After that horrible start, Manning improved to two touchdowns and only one interception against the Texans, including a 101.0 rating.

The next game, Manning proved himself once more against the Ravens with three touchdowns and, finally, no picks! He finished with an amazing 134.7 rating. Manning improved deeply and was becoming his usual superstar self again. The Colts kept winning and winning.

Manning’s best game came against the Jaguars. He had three touchdowns and no picks with a dominant 140.7 quarterback rating. The 364 passing yards showed the pass game was on, while the running game wasn’t. It was a 31-24 win, as Keiwan Ratliff picked off David Garrard for a touchdown.

Manning ended the regular season with a 23-0 win over the Titans. Manning had a 158.3 rating as he went seven-for-seven and one touchdown with no picks. The 95 passing yards all went in the first quarter, and Jim Sorgi took it from there.

Manning ended the season with the stats shown above. Manning also won the NFL MVP award. Though Manning and the Colts lost to the Chargers, he put up some pretty decent numbers. He had 310 passing yards, along with a touchdown and no picks. The 90.4 rating came when Manning went 25-42 on his passes.

Peyton Manning looks to guide the Colts to a playoff spot next year. He needs to. He has to.

Let’s hope Manning wins another MVP and guides himself and the Colts to their fourth Super Bowl and wins it. Manning looks to earn his second Super Bowl ring while Tom Brady is worrying that Manning is only one ring behind. Can Manning do it?

Of course. He’s strong. He’s never missed a game. He only missed one play in his entire career while starting. He’s smart. Well, of course. Why else did he have 49 touchdowns in 2004? Good luck, Peyton Manning.

Jim Sorgi is probably one of my favorite backup quarterbacks. He has six touchdowns and one interception in his career. That is actually pretty good for a backup. He has a career 89.9 quarterback rating.

Sorgi disappointed the Colts in the 2007 regular season, when the Colts lost to the Titans, 17-14. It ended on a fourth down pass, when Sorgi threw to Devin Aromashodu, who is now on the Bears, who failed to make the catch because of the swarming defenders.

Sorgi has been a great player with the Colts as far as filling his role as a confidant to Peyton Manning and not taking up too much salary cap space. Even though he was horrible in the pre-season when he had no touchdowns and one interception, he is better in the regular season.

Right now, however, it looks like Sorgi might lose his job. According to Bryan Brackney at The Colts Corner, he said that the Colts were the only scouts to look at Nate Davis’s Pro Day.

What does that mean? The Colts are looking for a new backup and they also checked out Mark Sanchez, according to the Bryan Brackney article. I still think Jim Sorgi will still stay, as he can help mentor a young quarterback that the Colts bring in.

He was mostly the star of the 23-0 win against the Titans this year. He completed 73 percent of his passses, 22-for-30, and threw for 178 yards. His average passing yards a play was almost six (5.9). He also had a 87.9 quarterback rating. Still, while Sorgi can be a good backup for the Colts (since he rarely, if ever, will have to take a meaningful snap because of Manning’s durability), he is kind of horrible. Just saying: In Madden 2006, Jim Sorgi had a 65 overall rating along with some guy named Travis Brown.

Can Jim Sorgi be a potential starter with some team? At 28 years old, he does not have much of a ceiling despite good overall knowoedge of the game. I would love for him to stay with the Colts, just getting payed to do nothing while Manning is at work. Heck, that would be a good life.

So now you know them Colts’ quarterbacks. One is consistent, one is not as much. This is a good one-two punch of quarterbacks. What is going to happen? Will the Colts get Nate Davis? Yeah, probably. No chance they get Sanchez. Davis looks like he could be a great backup for the Colts.

We’ll see sometime soon. So this wraps up part one. Stay tuned for part two of running backs and fullbacks. This is Breaking Down the Colts. Thank you for reading and you have a nice day.

Play Cornhole and Tailgate like a Champion

As you may or may not have noticed, Midwest Sports Fans recently signed up a new sponsor: Big Time Game Boards. As many sponsors do, BTGB and its owner Kyle Whitling paid for a banner advertisement, which you can see over in the sidebar. And if BTGB was a company that produced something boring like internal audit software or Tim Duncan’s biography, I probably would have just left it that.

But you see, Big Time Game Boards actually produces a product that is exciting, that brings back very fond memories for me of my glorious college days in Bloomington, and that truly makes the world a better and more enjoyable place. So I’m dedicating a whole post to it.

So what is it that Big Time Game Boards does? (In case you couldn’t tell from the picture…)

Custom cornhole boards. Hell yeah.

Big Time Game Boards is an Ohio-based producer and seller of customized cornhole boards. Here is their official description from the website:

Big Time Game Boards was founded in 2003 by Kyle Whitling. The company was founded after tailgating at a Browns vs. Bengals game in Cincinnati. After one tailgate party where many beers were quaffed and many bags were thrown, the desire to supply the northeast ohio area with quality corn hole games was born. BTGB is one of the pioneers of custom logo and personalized corn hole sets. BTGB operates under Whitling Engineered Products, LLC.

Follow the link to learn more about the custom cornhole boards sold at Big Time Game Boards.

So you see, not only does Big Time Game Boards help Americans throughout the country tailgate like champions, but the company was born after a Browns game. This confluence of greatness was just too much pass up.

And really, don’t you think a game as great as cornhole deserves its own post on a blog for sports fans from the Midwest? Because to be honest, if you claim to be a Midwestern sports fan but have not played cornhole, we implore you to stop claiming the Midwest. You’re a fraud.

Hey, it is what it is.

For anyone unfamiliar with the great game of cornhole, here is handy YouTube video that includes footage of a tournament in Cincinnati and an explanation of cornhole rules to get you up to speed:

And, just for fun, here is another cornhole video of a game passing itself off as “Extreme Cornhole”. I am posting this video for two reasons. #1 – the stairwell they are throwing from looks frighteningly familiar to the one at the house I lived in my last two years of college; and #2 – they are obviously in need of a custom cornhole board. Anyway, here is the cornhole video:

And just in case you have never played cornhole, but are so inspired by the post that you are going to go to BTGB, buy a custom cornhole board, and then round up the neighbors for some good ‘ol drunken fun, here is a breakdown of the cornhole scoring rules, from BTGB:

6 Scoring
6.1 The score shall be taken after all bags have been thrown for a round.
6.2 Points shall be given as follows.
6.2.1 Three points for a bag that goes through the hole.
6.2.2 One point for a bag that is on the playing surface.
6.2.3 One point for a bag that is hanging into the hole.
6.2.4 One point for a bag that is hanging off the edge but not touching the ground.
6.2.5 Zero points for a bag that is on the playing surface, but also touching the ground.
6.2.6 Zero points for a bag that is hanging off the front edge and is resting on a bag that is on the ground, unless the bag on the ground can be removed without making the hanging bag fall to the ground, then one point is given.
6.3 Each team is given a round score according to section 6.2. The team with the highest round score, adds the difference of the two scores to their game score.
6.4 The team who wins the round is given honors to throw first in the next round.
6.5 If both teams have the same round score then the game score stays the same and honors stays with the team who had it the previous round.
6.6 The following is a possible scoring turn:
1st throw: Team A throws and it lands on the ramp, team B throws and it goes through the hole.
2nd throw: A goes through hole, B lands on ramp.
3rd throw: A lands on ramp knocking team B’s 2nd throw into hole, B lands on the ground. 4th throw: A lands on ramp, B lands on ramp knocking A’s 1st throw onto ground. A gets 5 pts and B gets 7 for the round, so B adds
7-5 = 2 pts to their game score and has honors for the next round.

Go to BTGB’s Playing the Game page for the complete rules to cornhole.

And finally, if you need a few more reasons to hop on over to BTGB and join the cornhole craze, here you go:

If you ever go to Ann Arbor, you can pad your cornhole victory totals by beating tools like these guys.

However, unlike at Michigan, if you travel to Columbus you might actually have some real competition from non-tools; namely Brutus.

But you’ll have to deal with the pressure of hot girls watching you. Did I mention that chicks dig cornhole? (Get your minds out of the gutters…I’m talking about the game, and you know it.)

And last but not least…

…because Peyton Manning lets himself go in the offseason and relaxes by playing cornhole. Don’t you think you should too?

KVB…the potshots at Michigan were for you buddy.

In all seriousness, cornhole is a great game. It’s perfect for college, for family gatherings, for tailgating, and even for wedding receptions…or hell, even at the wedding itself. What better way to test the bonds of matrimony than with a game of cornhole right there at the alter? Bride and groom against the best man and maid of honor. Or maybe guys versus girls would be better. I’ll let you decide.

But whatever you do, go check out Big Time Game Boards. Learn the game, find out where there are cornhole tournaments in Ohio, and customize a cool cornhole board for yourself or for a gift.

As Indianapolis Colts 2008 Season Ends, There Are Major Questions for 2009

Last night, the 2008 season of the Indianapolis Colts came to a grinding halt in San Diego as Philip Rivers, Darren Sproles, and the Charges upended the Colts in overtime 23-17.

The Colts have been amazingly consistent this decade, with this past season standing out because of its roller-coaster nature. Peyton Manning had to have knee surgery during the preseason, the team stumbled to a 3-4 start, they never found a consistent ground game, dealt with injuries all season long, and somehow racked up nine straight wins, another MVP for Manning, and cruised into the playoffs once again.

After going 3-13 in 1998, the Colts have had only one losing season in the last ten (2001, 6-10). And 2008 marked the team’s sixth straight season of tallying 12 or more wins. Tony Dungy, who took over the Colts from former head coach Jim Mora in 2002, has compiled an 85-28 record in Indianapolis; that’s a winning percentage of greater than 75%.

Wow.

As the 2008 season of the Indianapolis Colts ends, however, there are many questions heading into 2009. The answers to these questions will ultimately provide the answer to overriding question facing the Colts franchise: Can the Colts possibly continue their incredibly consistent year-in, year-out performance?

Let’s run down a few of the most pressing questions:

1 — Will Tony Dungy return as coach?

Tony Dungy has made no secret of the fact that he has considered retirement every year since the Colts won the Super Bowl. As the Colts playoff game against the Chargers approached this past week, speculation about a potential Tony Dungy retirement began swirling again. Dungy has said that we will take at least a week to unwind from the season and see how he feels. If he does decide to retire, the Colts have already named Jim Caldwell the head-coach-in-waiting.

There is no doubt that if Dungy decides to retire, his imprint will still define the Indianapolis Colts in 2009. I have read a few different places that the Colts may just be ready for Tony Dungy to retire, in hopes of avoiding a Favresque Will-He-or-Won’t-He scenario. I don’t really buy that. The Colts have a succession plan already in place, and will move in that direction should Dungy decide it is his time to go. But they will welcome him back with open arms as long as he wants to continue coaching. I hope that he does, and I know that Colts fans everywhere agree.

2 — What will happen with Marvin Harrison?

Mike Florio at Pro Football Talk posted an interesting item earlier today regarding Marvin Harrison’s exorbitant cap number for next season. Currently, that cap number is $13.4 million. If he was the Marvin Harrison of old, one of the best receivers in the NFL, that amount might be palatable. But for the declining version we saw this season, a shell of the dominant receiver Colts fans remember, there is no way the Colts can afford that much for Harrison. By cutting Marvin Harrison, as Florio points out, the Colts could free up $7 million in 2009.

More importantly, at least I think, is will Marvin Harrison even be a free man when the 2009 season comes around? Do not forget that there are still pending charges against Marvin Harrison for a shooting that took place in his hometown of Philadelphia in March of 2008. Colts fans always get mad when I bring this up, and many think this is a closed case simply because the DA’s office in Philly has not yet pushed forward, but make no mistake: this case is not over.

I am keeping an eye on this case, because sources close to the investigation say it could come to a head sometime during the first few months of 2009. Just as the New York GIants face uncertainty with the legal status of Plaxico Burress, the Colts face similar questions with Marvin Harrison; and in the end, these issues could actually make the Colts’ decision regarding Harrison’s cap number quite simple.

3 — What will the Colts do to get under the 2009 salary cap?

Another post by Mike Florio at PFT today goes into a little more detail regarding the effect of Peyton Manning’s monster contract on the Colts’ no-so-good salary cap status heading into 2009. Peyton Manning’s $21.2 million salary cap number for 2009 accounts for 17% of the team’s expected spending of $123 million; and makes Harrison’s cap number seem miniscule in comparison. (Of course, Peyton Manning is still highly productive and playing at an MVP level, while Harrison is nowhere close to being that valuable to the team.)

As Florio points out in the Marvin Harrison post, the Colts are projected to be $2.5 million over the expected $123 million cap for 2009. This is not unexpected, of course, as the Colts’ philosophy is to build their team around highly-paid superstars (Manning, Harrison, Wayne, Freeney, Sanders) and then fill in the gaps with younger players playing closer to the minimum. The drawback to this strategy is the expected reduction of depth, but the Colts proved this season that they were able to develop solid depth even with younger, lesser-paid backups.

Luckily for the Colts, most of their key players are signed through next season. Their free agents after the 2008 season, all unrestricted, are Matt Giordana, Keiwan Ratliff, Dominic Rhodes, Jeff Saturday, and Josh Thomas. You have to think that the Colts will want to resign Saturday, but for how much? He is getting up there in years and has been more prone to injury lately. Dominic Rhodes proved to be a very valuable backup to the oft-injured Joseph Addai. And Keiwan Ratliff and Matt Giordano provide good depth in the secondary.

Oh yeah, and the Colts have to sign their rookies too.

Thus, the Colts will be in dire need of the $7 million they can save by cutting Marvin Harrison, and may have to ask stars like Peyton Manning to take less money in 2009 for the best interest of the team. These monetary concerns, and how the Colts decide to deal with them, will define what the Colts look like in 2009.

4 – The running game

The Colts struggled all season to run the ball effectively. Part of this was due to injuries along the offensive line, as well as nagging injuries that seemed to hinder Joseph Addai all season long. The lack of a consistent running game made life that much more difficult for the Colts offense and Peyton Manning. Manning’s ability to overcome the inconsistent running attack was one reason why he won the MVP; but something tells me he would much rather have the luxury of a dependable running game in 2009.

Obviously, these are only a few of the many questions that the Colts must answer heading in 2009. But they are probably the most important. The first domino will be Tony Dungy, and then we’ll have to see how the rest of them fall from there.

Time to go watch the Dolphins. Have a great Sunday everyone.

Colts-Chargers Wild Card Preview, Prediction, and Injury Updates

Wild Card weekend is upon us, with four games to try to satiate America’s insatiable appetite for the NFL. (Follow the think for a breakdown of the TV schedules, announcer lineups, and point spreads of each game this weekend.)

There is one clear marquee matchup this weekend though, and it will take place Saturday night at 8:00 in San Diego, California when the Indianapolis Colts take on the San Diego Chargers.

Why is this game the marquee matchup of the weekend?

1. These are the two hottest teams in the NFL. The Colts started 3-4 and then won 9 straight to finish 12-4 and capture the Wild Card. The Chargers started 4-8 and then reeled off four straight wins to finish 8-8 and win the AFC West. That’s 13 straight victories between the two, and proof that I have elementary math skills.
2. The game features superstars on both sides of the ball for each team. Peyton Manning is now a three-time MVP winner, while the Chargers have a former MVP of their own in LaDainian Tomlinson. Bob Sanders is a former NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Philip Rivers rubs some people the wrong way, but has had an outstanding season. Antonio Gates, Antonio Cromartie, Reggie Wayne, Dwight Freeney…yeah, there are stars all over the field.
3. The Colts and Chargers have a history of playing great, meaningful games against eachother in both the regular season and the playoffs. Earlier this season, the Colts beat the Chargers 23-20 in a game that helped turn the Colts season around. They have played three times in the last two seasons, and each game has been decided by four points or less.
4. It is possible that this could be Tony Dungy’s last game on an NFL sideline if the Colts fall short Saturday night.

There are plenty more reasons, but there is no need to state the obvious any more. Everyone knows that this will be the best game of the weekend, and I can’t wait to park myself on the couch and watch it Saturday night.

If you are looking for some solid analysis of the game, here are a few relevant links for you:

USA TODAY Colts-Chargers Preview and Prediction

Scouts, Inc Colts-Chargers Preview and Prediction

Stampede Blue – a great source for up-to-the-minute Colts news and notes

Now, let’s discuss for a minute one of the most important factors leading up to this game: injuries. The Colts have been hampered by injuries all season long, but are relatively healthy heading into this game. Oft-injured superstar SS Bob Sanders will play, as will RB Joseph Addai, although he only has one carry over the last three weeks. As of right now, only Gary Brackett is listed as out on the injury report. CB Keiwan Ratliff is questionable, but participated fully in the most recent practice.

On the San Diego side, the injury outlook is a little less clear and positive. Both Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson are questionable as of the most recent updates on the injury report. According to ProFootballTalk.com, they both have a 50-50 chance of playing. Obviously, the availability of stars like Tomlinson and Gates will have a huge impact on the game.

(Update: Just heard John Clayton say on ESPN that Tomlinson should be able to play, despite not practicing all week. Antonio Gates, however, is “more questionable.” Norv Turner was reportedly more pessimistic after the most recent practice and Gates will be a game-time decision.)

Now let’s get down to the nitty-gritty. It’s prediction time. I will come right out and say that I think the Colts are winning this game. Who do you think will win?

Who will win Saturday night's Wild Card Playoff game between the Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers?

• San Diego Chargers
• Indianapolis Colts

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Here are my reasons for liking the Colts on Saturday night:

1. The Colts’ superstars are healthier. Playoff games are won by stars, and with Tomlinson and Gates hindered, it is a huge advantage to a Colts team that has gotten healthy at just the right time.
2. Who do you have more confidence in: Tony Dungy or Norv Turner? I thought so.
3. Who do you have more confidence in: Peyton Manning or Philip Rivers? I thought so. (And let me just say, this is no disrespect to Philip Rivers, who is proving to be an outstanding quarterback. But Peyton Manning won the MVP for a reason, and he has proven more in the postseason than Rivers.)
4. The Chargers are 3-7 against teams outside the AFC West. And remember, the AFC West sucks. If the Chargers were in any other AFC division, they most likely would not even be in the playoffs.

However, this is not going to be any type of cake walk for the Colts, regardless of whether Gates and Tomlinson play. Peyton Manning has always struggled against the Chargers defense, and the gap between Manning and Rivers is actually closer than you might think. Plus, you have to give San Diego a slight bump because of the homefield advantage.

Still, in close games, I always go with the coach and QB I trust more. And regardless of whether you think Manning or Rivers is playing better right now, I don’t think anyone can argue that Tony Dungy is a better coach, and specifically a better big-game coach, than Norv Turner. For that reason in particular, I’m taking the Colts.

Colts-Chargers Prediction:

Indianapolis Colts 31 | San Diego Chargers 30

(And this, of course, means that you should go run and put money on the Chargers. I would say that my success predicting games this year has been bad, but I don’t want to overstate my abilities.)

Enjoy the game everyone, and then get ready for the Dolphins to upset the Ravens on Sunday. It’s happening.

Peyton Manning Wins NFL MVP Award

Peyton Manning has been rewarded for leading the Indianapolis Colts to nine straight wins and a playoff berth after overcoming an early season knee injury, and the ensuing offensive struggles and injury woes experienced by the Colts this season.

Today, it was announced by The Associated Press that Peyton Manning won his third NFL MVP award, tying Brett Favre as the only three-time winners in NFL history.

And the voting was not even close.

The AP MVP voting is done by a nationwide ballot of 50 NFL sportswriters and broadcasters. Peyton Manning received 32 votes, which placed him miles ahead of runners-up Chad Pennington and Michael Turner, who each garnered 4 votes. Adrian Peterson and Steelers linebacker James Harrison each received three votes. Philip Rivers garnered two votes, while Titans rookie Chris Johnson and Arizona QB Kurt Warner each got one vote a piece.

According to the story at ESPN.com:

“It’s been the most rewarding regular season that I’ve been a part of in my 11 years, and I have to believe a lot of the other players and even coaches might feel the same way.”

Peyton Manning also won the MVP award in 2004 and in 2003, the year the was named co-MVP with Steve McNair.

For the season, Manning eclipsed 4,000 yards for the ninth time to go with a 27-12 TD:INT ratio and a 95.0 passer rating. During the team’s nine-game winning streak, after it fell to 3-4, Manning has been even better. He is 209-290 with 2,248 yards and a 17:3 TD:INT ratio.

Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts travel to San Diego on Saturday night for their wild-card weekend matchup with the San Diego Chargers. The two teams know each other well, and have a history of meeting for epic clashes in the playoffs. Sunday should be no different.

Congratulations to Peyton Manning. I did not throw in my two cents before the results were announced, but I most certainly would have given my MVP award to Manning. He put the Colts on his shoulders this season after overcoming quite a troubling preseason injury. Good for Peyton, and best of luck to the Colts this weekend.