Somewhere, Robin Yount weeps.

You can’t even begin to imagine how much I hope the allegations against you are untrue. I don’t want to believe that you used performance-enhancing drugs, but part of me just knows that it’s true.

Image source: Inquisitr

Until yesterday, if someone had told me that you were on the juice, I probably would’ve backhanded them across the face and laughed at them. Now, this once-unfathomable notion appears to be all too true.

Mr. Braun, you are already an icon in the city of Milwaukee. You and Aaron Rodgers have the state of Wisconsin in the palm of your hands. You are, no – were, an unblemished idol to all of us Cheeseheads, and we placed you high up on a pedestal.

If these allegations are true, you – as one of the MLB’s brightest young stars and the reigning NL MVP – now will have put a huge asterisk next to not only your spectacular 2011 campaign, but you will also have tainted a magical season for the entire Brewers club.

I remember when you first came up to the majors during the 2007 season like it was just yesterday. It was a season to remember, as you won yourself the NL Rookie of the Year award, and I’m still convinced that what you did during not only 2007, but every year up to this one was completely clean.

In fact, that’s what angers me the most about this whole thing. It’s not like you are Barry Bonds cranking out 70-homer seasons. No, you can hit for power and average because of your spectacular swing and amazing bat speed. I just can’t understand why the hell you would ever even consider touching performance-enhancing drugs. You are a natural at the game of baseball, but apparently that’s not good enough.

Back in 2009, Bud Selig put you in a group of young superstars that he felt were doing everything the right way, and I don’t think that there was anyone that would’ve disputed that. But you betrayed Commissioner Selig’s trust, you betrayed your teammates’ trust, you betrayed the fans’ trust, and you betrayed the game of baseball.

Unless it turns out that what your camp is claiming about a 2nd clean test is true, you will never be able to reach the legendary status that at one time you seemed destined to obtain.

With Prince Fielder almost certainly leaving the team, we the fans were counting on you to come up big in 2012 and take over as the undisputed leader of this ballclub. With Albert Pujols leaving St. Louis and many of the key pieces from last year’s division-winning team coming back, it looked like Milwaukee had a very realistic chance of returning to the postseason in 2012.

But with you, in all likelihood, missing the first 50 games of the season, the Brewers are in deep trouble.

I really like Ron Roenicke as a manager, but he’s going to have to pull a Houdini to get this team to stay pace with the Cardinals while you’re gone. We still have a good team, but the absence of both you and Fielder is an enormous kick to the groin.

I’m not going to sit here and pretend I will hate you for the rest of your career, because I won’t. I hope you stay in Milwaukee forever, because you are, quite simply, a phenom.

When Alex Rodriguez came out and admitted to taking steroids, you said that the best thing for him to do was to come completely clean. Well the same applies for you. If you did indeed take performance-enhancing drugs, come clean. Tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. The public will look much more kindly on you if you just tell us what really happened. Don’t be a Barry Bonds, Ryan. Try to salvage your reputation by doing the right thing and you will be forgiven by the city of Milwaukee.

Don’t sink to the level of Barry Bonds, Rafael Palmeiro, Roger Clemens, and Sammy Sosa. They represent all that’s wrong with the game of baseball, but you don’t have to be one of them. You still have a chance to be Ryan Braun, the greatest player to ever put on a Milwaukee Brewers uniform.

Sincerely,

A Crushed Brewers Fan

But just one day after rubbing some dirt on the injury, White was in the Louisiana Superdome competing at a high level in a game versus the New Orleans Saints, and he would go one to play the remainder of that season including the playoffs.

At the time Reggie credited his religious faith along with divine intervention for being able to return to the football field. A more secular view would have Reggie as an absolutely freakish physical specimen who was able to withstand a tremendously high pain threshold. In these parts here in Wisconsin, most took Reggie White at his word, attributing his staying on the field to a combination of the two possibilities.

Which leads us to the current saga of Albert Pujols, who has returned to the St. Louis Cardinals lineup (Cowboy Bob Orton wrap and all) just two weeks after sustaining a broken forearm – far ahead of all conceivable timetables. Two weeks from now we could be talking about how Ryan Braun wound up missing more time with his current sore calf.

Not surprisingly, Albert’s return has been met with skeptics. Recent entries by the fantasy sports site Rotoworld were filled with comments such as ‘Maybe the guy isn’t human after all’ and ‘We’ve run out of adjectives for the guy’.

Then came Jeff Passan’s piece on Yahoo Sports on Wednesday, a mainstream writer on a mainstream outlet. The article was titled ‘Skeptics View Pujols’ Return as Unnatural’

Passan explains in the piece that Albert’s return to the lineup is being held under the microscope in baseball’s post-PED era, with players such as Pujols and Jose Bautista as targets who now have to deal with unfounded speculation.

In this era, a baseball star simply cannot win. In 2004, Jack McDowell, then himself a writer for Yahoo, speculated about Mark Prior’s Achilles tendon injury, noting Prior’s slow recovery as a ‘tell-tale’ sign of a player whose muscles got too strong for his tendons. Days later Dr. Blackjack was forced to backpedal from that diagnosis.

Nancy Grace would even be hard-pressed to put MLB players under the coals like some so-called experts and mainstream media do.

The evolution of the social media world has changed the landscape greatly in just the two short years since the infamous Jerod Morris/Raul Ibanez firestorm. As Passan mentioned in his article, Twitter is now the vehicle for anyone to speculate anything about sports – or anything else. Two years ago it was Jerod’s piece that wound up getting Ibanez’s attention. Put Ibanez’s torrid start in 2011 v. 2009 and Raul would be speculated on social media well before Jerod’s long, thought-out piece.

Earlier this year Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler didn’t have to wait until the next morning or even the post-game talk shows to hear himself labeled as a ‘quitter’ after the NFC Championship Game; many of his own NFL brethren were doing that long before the game ended.

It comes with the territory now for athletes and other figures in other professions: guilty before being proven innocent, then perhaps still labeled as guilty.

Lance Armstrong is a perfect Exhibit A in that regard. I don’t like commenting much about Lance because, to be honest, I don’t know much about cycling except that biking over 2,000 miles up and down mountains for three weeks straight has to be the most grueling thing imaginable.

But six years after his final Tour win, Lance still faces the music from those who continue to attempt to connect the PED dots throughout the French Pyrenees. Other cyclists have gotten busted. Floyd Landis got busted. French newspapers say he’s taken stuff. And now this year one of Armstrong’s former teammates called him out. As Tony Soprano would say, ‘The hustle never ends…’

Which leads us back to Pujols, who remains on pace to challenge baseball’s all-time career records in home runs (762, possibly around 800 by the time A-Rod gets through) and RBI’s (currently 2,297), and doing it playing his home games in unfavorable home run parks through his career. This is Pujols’ eleventh season in the majors. Making a rough guess that he may have been tested ten times per year since PED testing began in MLB, it’s conceivable that Albert has been tested close to a hundred times by now.

And he has come back clean all hundred times.

100-0 would be a pretty good record. But if Albert wants to play through 2020 he better be sure to finish his testing career at 200-something and 0. Because if Pujols fails just once, then he immediately gets thrown into the same discard pile as Sosa, McGwire, Palmeiro, Man-Ram, A-Rod, etc., etc., etc….

And Albert’s slate has to remain clear past retirement and beyond. A legacy could even be stained in the future by, let’s say, someone who was a briefly a teammate saying something in some piece many years from now.

It’s very unfair, but unfortunately it is the nature of the beast that has been created. The culture of performance-enhancing techniques in sports is not clearly marked in black and white either. Even coach Bob Knight referred to something as simple as Gatorade as a ‘performance enhancer’. The reference was over the top, but not totally crazy. In the court of public opinion amateur attorneys can twist things any way they can see fit.

A professional sports career is supposed to follow a distinct and logical curve. It begins in a player’s early 20′s, peaks somewhere in the late 20s, then settles in slightly below that peak during the early 30s before declining slowly until even the best performers are forced to give up the game in their late 30′s/early 40′s at the latest. Any deviation from that curve (See McGwire, Bonds, and Clemens late-career), and eyebrows are immediately raised.

Apparently now eyebrows are also raised simply by coming back earlier than anticipated after an injury, or perhaps simply being ‘injury-prone’ as the Blackjack-Prior case showed; there seems to be no escaping the inevitable ‘smell test’.

The good news is that Bud Selig and Major League Baseball no longer turn a blind eye like they did from the mid-90′s-early 2000′s when the problem was ridiculously obvious. The players are now regularly tested, and I’m personally one of those who gives all performers a clean slate and considers them innocent until proven otherwise, and not the other way around.

Albert Pujols and other superstars at least deserve the benefit of that doubt.

Even if you only follow sports peripherally – hell, even if you just follow pop culture – I’m sure you can appreciate the appropriate chuckle-to-yourself juxtaposition of these two books.

Immediately I knew that this image would provide the raw material from whence my first demotivational poster would emanate. So I hopped on over here and took a stab at making one. Here you go:

Anyone have any better/funnier ideas for what the title/description of this poster could be? I’ll go make and post the best ones I see in the comments.

And to whoever was a) is in charge of organizing the layout of books at this mystery bookstore; and, b) whoever saw this, took a picture of it, and posted it on the Internet: kudos to you. He’ll never say it publicly, but Al Gore created the Internet so we could all chuckle at things like this. Thanks for doing your part.

Oh, and Lance…quick piece of advice: just come clean dude.

Note: All speculation included below is entirely my opinion. In fairness, Lance has never been proven to have used PEDs or failed a test. That said, I stopped giving athletes the benefit of the doubt a long time ago. So, just to be clear, this advice is for Lance if he actually is guilty of doping, for which there is no definitive proof yet that he is.

If you did use performance enhancing drugs, which I think everyone but your most dedicated sycophants believes at this point, stop digging yourself into a deeper hole. I don’t know anyone who wouldn’t pretty much give you a pass if you came out and said the following:

All my life I’ve loved cycling and wanted to be the best at it. Unfortunately, cycling is a sport that has been overrun with performance enhancing drugs and blood transfusions; so much so that’s it nearly impossible to compete cleanly. Rather than be a leader, I became a follower, and it’s a decision that – while not without its benefits for myself and others – that I now regret. When I was diagnosed with cancer I saw my opportunity to be a champion flash before my eyes. I also saw an opportunity to inspire millions of people across the globe…but I had to become a champion to do it. So I gave into the pressure of my sport, the pressure of my own ambition, and the pressure of the people who ultimately became inspired by me. I couldn’t let myself or them down, and there was only one way to do that in the sport I’m in: to cheat. And I did. And it was wrong. And I’m sorry.

Obviously you would want it to be more eloquent than a paragraph I slapped together in 90 seconds, but you get the idea.

Image source: ATwistedSpoke.com

Be honest and contrite. Sports fans are not idiots. We’re people. We get it. Yes, our words can sometimes be insufferably self-righteous, but many of us probably would have done the exact same thing in your situation…and we know it. That allows us to empathize, which many of us would do especially in your case.

Mark McGwire didn’t overcome cancer or inspire millions to people in their quest to do the same. He just hit more home runs. Your story is a little more complicated and worthy of forgiveness…which I think you’d get if you respected your fans enough to request it.

You’ve done a lot of great things, both on and off the bike. Sure, your accomplishments will be sullied if/when it comes out with certainty that you cheated, but the damage will be exponentially greater if you prove to be a disingenuous liar and a douche bag too…two roads you seem to travel further down each day. You can mitigate the damage by being honest before you’re forced to in a final act of desperation. Learn from all of the athletes who have come before you.

Remove the “v” from the word on your wristband and it says “Liestrong”. Right now, that’s all you’ve been doing (assuming, you know, that you used). You can really show people how to live strong by being honest and owning up to any and all transgressions.

If you do that, I promise I won’t make any more ball jokes.

And if there aren’t any transgressions, and there really is some trumped up witch hunt to bring you down, then I guess I’ll owe you an apology one of these days. Needless to say, I’m not holding my breath. This would be the most smoke without a fire in world history.

[Editor's note: For other random but entertaining nonsense like the poster above, visit our friends at I-am-Bored.com.]

Big Mac issued a statement through the Associated Press early in the day, and then sat for a very compelling hour-long interview with Bob Costas earlier this evening on the MLB Network.

Here is the gist of McGwire’s story, if I can be so presumptuous as to summarize it in one sentence:

McGwire began using steroids to combat the well-chronicled rash of injuries that periodically derailed his career, but he believes that he derived no tangible baseball benefit from his PED use other than better health.

(Note: You can watch the first part of McGwire’s interview with Bob Costas here, and I’m sure they’ll be posting more of it later this evening and tomorrow.)

I don’t completely buy what he’s selling – I think he’s being disingenuous or at least delusional by not acknowledging that PEDs helped him hit for more power – but I do give him credit for at least facing some of the music.

As you’ll see in the video below, there are still plenty of McGwire contemporaries who have yet to do the same thing.

Video: Cheating Liars (originally created for Flash Sports Tonight)

Little did I know when KVB and I wrote this song some 4-5 years ago – before Roger Clemens’ name had ever been officially linked with steroid/PED use – that we’d still be talking about it in January of 2010.

And if Sosa or Bonds or Clemens, among others, decide to speak publicly about their steroid use like ARod and Big Mac have this year, we’ll all be talking about it then too.

At which point I can trot out this video again, and why not? Our ode to steroids in sports just gets more relevant by the year.

**********

* – Mark McGwire photo credit: Deadspin

However, something caught my eye that has become a pretty noticable trend.

My stats show me the keyword searches that have driven search engine referrals to the site. I’ve noticed that every time Albert Pujols has a big game, searches involving his name and “steroids” spike. After another two-homer outburst by El Hombre yesterday, here are the search numbers so far today:

• “albert pujols steroids” – 53
• “pujols steroids” – 41
• “pujols steroid” – 6
• “is albert pujols on steroids” – 4

And to the right is a snapshot from my Google Analytics tracking since I wrote this post about Pujols on May 15th. These are all search terms and the number of individual visits that have come to Midwest Sports Fans as a result.

I guess some people are wondering about Albert Pujols and steroids, huh?

And keep in mind, at last check my post about Pujols was only #7 on the first page of Google results for “albert pujols steroids”…so the posts above mine are driving significantly more traffic from these types of searches than I am.

And lest you think that the aforementioned post was speculative regarding Pujols being on steroids, I assure you it was not. In fact, I went out of my way to state that Pujols is one of the few remaining guys left that I believe to be clean. There is always doubt — a fact that we’ve all been over ad nauseum in recent weeks — but Pujols gets more benefit of the doubt than anyone in my mind.

A quick excerpt from that post, which was written a few weeks before the now infamous Raul Ibanez post:

I’ve given up hope on most current and former baseball players and stopped giving the vast majority of them any benefit of the doubt. And I don’t blame myself for not being able to withstand the force of pessimism…I blame Major League Baseball and the greed and vanity of the players.

However, one of the few guys that I remain steadfast in defending is Albert Pujols.

…

In fact, I’m done referring to PED’s as performance-enhancing drugs. From now, I’m calling them Pujols Emulation Drugs. Albert Pujols is the standard by which all other major league baseball players should be held, both on and off the field. Anyone caught using PEDs, like Manny for instance, is clearly just trying to reach Pujols’ level. But that’s the greatness of Albert Pujols: he didn’t need to use PEDs to get where he is (good Lord I hope…I really do).

I could go into all of the SEO reasons why this post ended up on the first page for an “albert pujols steroids” search, but I don’t want to bore you. Mainly it’s because those terms are in the <title> tag and the content matches up. It wasn’t necessarily my intention (not that I’m complaining, mind you) but I am glad that people searching for this information are finding that post.

Just as in the case of the Ibanez post, my discussion about Pujols was completely speculative, completely honest in terms of my thoughts and feelings, and highlighted a continuing problem in Major League Baseball that still requires addressing. The tone of the Pujols piece was more explicit in giving him the benefit of the doubt than the Ibanez article (something I’ve previously recognized as wishing I could do over) but I don’t really see a huge gulf of difference between them.

At the end of the day, Albert Pujols and Raul Ibanez sit atop my list of players that I believe in more than others. Everyone is playing with a cloud of suspicion right now, testing policy or not, and that’s just the reality. And while stories like ARod and Manny continue to frustrate me and many other baseball fans (though many have professed to just not caring anymore, which is fair…I’m just not there yet), I still try to focus more of my attention and appreciation on the guys who I think have always played the game the right way.

With that said, a list was recently published at the site RotoInfo that is supposedly the complete list of the 103 players who failed drug tests prior to the 2003 season. It is accompanied by the statement “Rumored steroid list (UNCONFIRMED)” and no other information is given but names. I find it absolutely amazing that my piece about Raul Ibanez — which accused no one — caused such a huge stir, while this list — which accuses 103 players specifically — has gone relatively under the radar in comparison. Again, I’m not complaining about the exposure generated by the Ibanez post, and I never have. The whole thing just still seems so random to me.

For the record, I don’t really have an opinion one way or the other about the RotoInfo list. I’ve seen other lists that have attempted to guess the identities of the 103 players and I simply lump this in with those. It’s just a speculative list — which I’m fine with — and there is no reason to consider it something more or less than any other list until we have some sort of confirmation. Tommy Craggs over at Deadspin wrote about the list yesterday and offers a more informed opinion about its potential validity than I can provide, as I am not all that familiar with the past work of RotoInfo.

However, after seeing the RotoInfo list and other lists like it, I figured I would try to flip the steroid speculation on its head and focus on the guys I think are clean, rather than waste time worrying about the guys I think may have cheated over the years. I will state again that I firmly believe every player is legitimately under suspicion; not necessarily that they are currently using, as I think testing has to have had a positive impact, but that they might have used in the past during the height of the PED era. With that said, there are guys that I believe in a lot more than others. So even though I’ve somewhat become an icon for negative steroid speculation (fair or not), allow me to tread for a few moments in the much less volatile and Rosenthalless ground of positive steroid speculation.

Here is my own personal speculative list of guys currently playing that I think have always been clean and still are (but that, granted, I still wouldn’t be totally shocked to learn dabbled in PEDs at some point during their careers).

Note: This list is not meant to be exhaustive. It only takes into account players who have played at a consistently above average level for a number of years and that I feel I could make a legitimate statistical and empirical case for in defending. Feel free to argue or add to the list in the comments:

• Albert Pujols
• Raul Ibanez (as said in the post linked above, after looking at even more statistical evidence that I’d originally neglected, I believe in his numbers much more than when I initially wrote the post.)
• Mark Buehrle
• Derek Jeter
• Roy Halladay
• Justin Morneau
• David Wright
• Grady Sizmore
• Mariano Rivera
• Joe Nathan
• Johan Santana
• Ichiro Suzuki
• Jim Thome
• C.C. Sabathia
• Ken Griffey Jr.

If you want to know how I arrived at this list, here you go: I clicked on each of the rosters in my fantasy league and went down the list, just going with my gut reaction. I tried to stick with more veteran guys who were around during the early parts of this decade. There were plenty of guys that “almost made it” (although I won’t name them so I don’t get accused of implicitly accusing them) but the guys above are the ones that I didn’t hesitate to add.

I suppose there are two ways to look at this list. I was actually surprised to find that many guys that I feel relatively comfortable with, but it still looks pretty paltry in comparison to the total number of MLB players. The list is only about half a roster’s worth of players. Congratulations once again Major League Baseball. The rotten fruits of your greed never cease to find new and exciting ways to manifest themselves.

Bringing things full circle, Albert Pujols does, in my mind, stand out as the “last great hope” of baseball fans who want to see records held by guys we believe in. I still consider Roger Maris to be the single-season home run king and I still consider Hank Aaron (my favorite player as a kid, even though he was retired) to be all-time home run king. Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, etc., etc.; these guys are not worthy of such lofty status. If Albert Pujols ever achieves one or both of those marks, I believe he will be worthy.

(Good Lord I hope…I really do.)

* – Albert Pujols photo credit: AlbertPujolsFanClub.com

The NEW YORK TIMES IS REPORTING that Sammy Sosa tested positive for steroids in 2003. Here is your excerpt, none of which was written or speculated about by me, but rather comes directly from a New York Times report that is putting this information forward as confirmed fact:

Sammy Sosa, who joined with Mark McGwire in 1998 in a celebrated pursuit of baseball’s single-season home run record, is among the players who tested positive for a performance-enhancing drug in 2003, according to lawyers with knowledge of the drug-testing results from that year.

The disclosure that Sosa tested positive makes him the latest baseball star of the last two decades to be linked to performance-enhancers, a group that now includes McGwire, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez and Rafael Palmeiro.

…

The 2003 positive test could also create legal troubles for Sosa because he testified under oath before Congress at a public hearing in 2005 that he had “never taken illegal performance-enhancing drugs.”

If you would like a blogger’s reaction, hop on over to our good friend Josh Q. Public to see what he had to say about the report that Sammy Sosa testing positive for steroids. We’re laying off steroid talk around here for a while.

Needless to say, this is another sad, sad day for baseball fans everywhere. One more hero for whom speculation proved true and whose accomplishments will forever be tainted. Way to go players, the union, and Major League Baseball.

The fact that no one is surprised by this is YOUR fault and nobody else’s.

Update: One more thought. I know there are going to be a lot of I-told-you-so’s and jokes going around and all of that stuff, especially in light of everything that happened last week with the Raul Ibanez story. And I know that I’ve always been a Sosa and Cubs hater. But let me make one thing one clear:

I HATE this story. Hate it.

Yes, I suspected all along that Sosa was on steroids, and in fact I would have bet money that he was had I been forced to. (This, remember, is the complete of opposite of what I’ve maintained about Ibanez, who I believe is clean.) And even though the video below called Sosa out two years ago, way before any proof had been gleaned, I take zero satisfaction in a story like this.

It sucks, and it sucks bad.

The Summer of Big Mac and Sammy was such a great experience, such a great memory; and I can only imagine how special it much have been for Cardinals and Cubs fans. And perhaps everyone had already given up the purity of that memory before today, but even in that case this story is still a big, fat kick in the junk with a steel-toed boot for any baseball fan.

I know that we’re all cynical in this day and age, but in our hearts we all still have that innocent, pure baseball fan inside of us who watches the game with child-like wonder — the one who first fell in love with the game way back when.

This story is yet another insult to that part of me. And I’m fucking sick and tired of it.

**********

“Enjoy” the video, which sadly seems to become more relevant with each passing year, month, and day:

(And once again, for the record, this song is NOT purporting that Derek Jeter ever used PEDs. Listen to the words! “But not Yankees #2!” Not sure how many times I have to explain this to people…)

And generally I agree, and I believe my public comments since Wednesday show this.

In my initial reaction to hearing Raul Ibanez’s comments, I did offer up a small but sincere apology for the simple fact that the Ibanez-steroids speculation had advanced to the degree it had. And while I believe that I was justified in what I wrote in the original post at the center of the firestorm, and that the true catalyst for this story blowing up was the mischaracterization of it by the Inquirer piece and other mainstream media observers, there are two important facts that I feel need to be understood and that have made me feel more “apologetic” — for the outcome as it relates specifically to Raul Ibanez, not the actual story, its content and speculation, or its intent — than many have advised me that I should be:

1. I personally do not think Raul Ibanez is on steroids, only that such speculation is warranted for every player in Major League Baseball.
2. I personally do not want to see Raul Ibanez ever test positive or be explicity implicated (which, remember, I did not do) in steroids. Under no circumstances will that make me feel one iota of vindication or satisfaction. None. The realist/pessimist in me cannot overlook that last 15 years of Major League Baseball and exonerate anyone in my own mind; however, the optimist in me sees Raul Ibanez as possessing as much potential as any current player to be a catalyst for restoring fans’ trust. And that is what I want to see happen, and that was actually at the foundation of the original hypothesis for my post, which you may recall was that Ibanez is not on steroids.

With that said, like most writers I know do with pieces they write, I look back on the original Raul Ibanez piece and see plenty of opportunities for it to be a stronger piece of writing. In the interest of full disclosure, honesty, and accountability, here they are:

1. Understanding now how many people skimmed or did not even read the article, I would more clearly and emphatically state what I said above in #1: that I personally do not think Raul Ibanez is on steroids, only that such speculation is warranted for every player in Major League Baseball.

I actually think I am pretty clear on this point, but I do somewhat believe that specifically with respect to how I constructed the article I could have been more clear about this fact for those who only read the title or gave the article a passing glance before passing judgment. This does not in any way mean, however, that I think the article in its current form is inappropriate. The truth is, I could look at any post I’ve made on Midwest Sports Fans, with or without external critiques, and find a way that I think makes it better. In that sense, the Ibanez post is like any other post you’d find scrolling through the archives.

2. In reference to the point above, I do not believe the title is 100% relfective of my own personal feelings on the Ibanez debate. It is in some ways more suggestive and speculative than the article itself when the full article is considered in totality. I could have been more respectful of the fact that titles often frame the mindset with which readers view the contents of an article. This could have helped to stem the tide of mischaracterization that I believe occurred with the article, especially for those who didn’t read it or only skimmed it. Again, I fully stand by the title as is, as I do with the article. But might I change it hindsight knowing what I know? I’d certainly consider it, but definitely wouldn’t feel obligated to do so in any way.

3. Rob Neyer, among others, pointed out one specific phrase I used in the article that I’d like to have back, mainly because it simply does not make sense within the context of the article. This point really has nothing to do with Raul Ibanez. It’s just a spot where I think I was lazy in making sure I was putting forth my best effort as a writer. In fact, every time I read it I hear nails-on-chalkboard in my head. Here is Neyer’s comment, from his Sweet Spot blog on ESPN.com, which I agree with 100%, and said so in his comment thread:

That’s not a particularly good piece of writing, because when you say you’re going to leave the speculation unstated and then spend three paragraphs essentially stating the speculation, you’ve written yourself into an uncomfortable corner. Aside from that single clause, though, has Morris — who’s 27, by the way — written anything here that’s unreasonable? Players cheated. Players have lied about cheating. The players fought for years against any efforts to limit or eliminate the cheating.

I’m sorry, players, but you just don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt.

I left that last part in there because it speaks to my higher point. The article, in some ways that I recognize and acknowledge, is not a particularly good piece of writing, and certainly not what I would consider my best work. (In fact, to be honest, strictly as a piece of writing I think it pales in comparison to the post I wrote today about Frank Thomas and the Chicago White Sox, which will unfortunately get 20,000+ less views and 300+ less comments.)

4. The last area that I would love to have a mulligan on is that I wish I had given myself longer than my usual window of 7:00 am – 9:00 am to research, develop, and write the post. Once 9:00 hits I typically move on to my non-sports blogging work out of necessity, but I do enjoy the daily morning challenge of finding a topic to write about so the content stays fresh on MSF. In this case, had I expected the article to be viewed by more people than the buddy in my fantasy league I referenced and 300-400 other people, I would have gone into far more depth researching it. That I can very honestly say.

So those of you who have criticized the article for not going as far as it could have gone in examining statistical reasons to explain Raul Ibanez’s start to this season, I acknowledge your critique. However, I will say in my own defense that many, many other articles have been written that speculated about individual steroid use without the following attributes that my article contained:

• An initial hypothesis of disproving steroid speculation about an individual.
• Objective statistical analysis of more than just topline numbers. I didn’t just cite Ibanez’s HR rate and SLG% and conclude that it was reasonable to suspect PEDs could possibly be an influence because Ibanez is an MLB player and all MLB players, regardless of if their numbers are up or down, are up for speculation. I tried to give specific analysis of the park factor idea that many have alluded to but that not many have specifically outlined with numbers. The truth is, I think the majority of the people who read through the entire article noticed this and have recognized this.

All that said, in the time since I wrote the article I have found a plethora of sources who have taken what I started (and some who had done it before I wrote my piece) and looked deeper into the possible statistical explanations for Ibanez’s numbers. In the interest of complete fairness to Ibanez, here are some of the most illustrative and objective analyses I’ve found, a few of which I mentioned in a previous post:

This first post, from We’re The Team to Beat, was written before my post was even a consideration in my own mind. Notice in the excerpt how the author acknowledges an ongoing debate regarding Ibanez and steroids (as does this post from the blog It’s All About the Money, Stupid, which was also published before I’d even considered tackling the topic for those of you who think I started this debate):

In one of the topics I’d be chatting in, people discussed Raul Ibanez so I mentioned the piece I wrote yesterday about steroids and good guys like Raul. Of course there are few who believe that Raul honestly did steroids so they kicked around a few other ideas. The most intriguing one I saw mentioned is the split in Raul’s stats between hitting with runners on and no one on base (credit to joboggi).

The author goes on to cite some very compelling numbers showing that Ibanez is historically a much better hitter with men on base, a situation he finds himself in more often with Philly’s potent lineup surrounding him. Thus, an increase in his overall numbers, specifically his AVG/OBP/SLG line and RBI toal, should have been expected this season.

For more proof of just how much better a lineup Ibanez now hits in, consider today’s post from Tom Verducci entitled “Mariners’ offense historically bad…“. Here is the most telling excerpt:

Indeed, the Mariners are a fascinatingly bad offensive team, especially for a team that is playing .500 ball. It’s hard to construct a team in this era, in a league with the DH, that has this much trouble scoring runs. They are last in the majors in runs; yes, worse than the Giants and Padres.

Surely, with a player of Ibanez’s caliber still in the lineup, the Mariners would be better. But these two analyses are very telling of just how impressive Ibanez’s 3-year averages in Seattle were, and how much more protection and run-producing opportunities he has now that he is in Philly.

Update: I forgot about something while initially writing this post. Raul Ibanez has gone from the AL to the NL and that alone provides valid reason to expect his numbers to jump. A commenter on the original post pointed out what should have been obvious to me but wasn’t. I was able to find some numbers to back it up, including the ones below (from this NBCSports.com article) that show the disparity in stats between the leagues during Interleague Play:

Interleague comparison:

Statistic	AL	NL
BA	.275	.251
Runs	1,249	1,014
ERA	3.69	4.55

As a White Sox fan and a guy who always roots for the AL in the All-Star Game, these stats are both expected and exciting. The AL rules.

Another point I’ve cited before, though not in the original article, was made by Dan Levy on his On The DL Podcast. Levy mentions that many players have been implicated or suspected of steroid use because of huge statistical jumps during contract years. Ibanez signed a 3-year, $30 million contract with Philadelphia before this season started, so one line of thinking suggests that he should be less motivated to use PEDs.

Of course, there is a flip side to this line of thinking, and relates to Alex Rodriguez. ARod has said that part of his motivation to use steroids was to live up to the massive contract given to him by the Texas Rangers.

Thus, we have legitimate evidence on both sides of this argument, essentially making it a moot point.

But here is another analysis that is anything but moot.

Joe Posnanski, in an article that I have lauded several times since Wednesday, provides multiple examples of 50- to 55-game streches over Ibanez’s career during which Raul Ibanez has had stretches comparable to how he has started this season. The examples span Ibanez’s full career during his stops in Kansas City, Seattle, and now Philadelphia.

And as I acknowledged in my original article, such stretches are magnified when they begin a season:

Personally, I am withholding judgment until we see a full seasons’ worth of stats. Many players put together terrific runs of 150-250 ABs in the midst of otherwise normal or just slightly above average (based on their career numbers) seasons. Ibanez’s terrific 219 AB run since Opening Day is just magnified right now because it came at the start of the season.

Joe P.’s article simply lends more empirical credence to the idea that Ibanez has proven to be one of those players capable of incredible runs over short sample sizes, and that this should be considered when speculating about the reasons for his hot start.

I also found yet another great statistical explanation for Raul Ibanez putting up much better numbers with the Phillies than he did with the Mariners. The analysis, by Zach Fein of FeinSports.com, includes a discussion of the park factor idea in a manner that is actually more mathematically intricate and in-depth that my own more surface-based analysis of the numbers.

Here is an excerpt of Zach’s discussion of the expected influence of Ibanez changing home parks:

If we adjust his 2006-08 stats from Seattle accordingly, his previously good batting line is now great: .308/.376/.541, with 31 home runs and 116 RBI per year.

His current OBP of .380 is in line with his adjusted OBP, but the slugging percentage is where the major differences lies—an actual .671 versus the adjusted .539.

Why is the disparity so large? Ibanez has hit 20 home runs in just 80 fly balls, a HR/FB ratio of 25 percent. The league average falls around 10 or 11 percent; Ibanez’s was 10.7 and 10.9 percent each of the past two years, respectively.

From 2006 to 2008, Ibanez’s HR/FB percentage was 12.7 percent. Our estimate for his HR/FB percentage this year is about 14.6, which includes a 20 percent increase and a slight regression to the mean (15 percent, to be exact).

Which means that we would expect 11 or 12 home runs in 80 fly balls for Ibanez. (By the way, if we prorate 12 home runs in his 255 plate appearances to average of 681 in his last three years in Seattle, we’d get an average of 32 homers per year. We previously estimated 31 home runs in Philadelphia for Ibanez.)

If we then take away eight of his 20 homers—and add four doubles, assuming half of those eight are outs and half are doubles—his slugging percentage falls to .566 and his OPS to .946. And if those eight non-homers turned out to be all outs, his actual performance this year would actually be worse than what his adjusted stats estimated.

(By the way, my apologies to Zach for including such a large excerpt but I do feel a sense of responsibility to fully present relevant statistical analysis that could help explain Ibanez’s start. I definitely encourage everyone to hop over to Fein Sports and read the article in its entirety…a practice that I am now much more appreciative of than before for reasons that should be obvious.)

After the excerpt above, Zach goes into a detailed explanation of how Ibanez’s current 2009 numbers could also be influenced by random fluctuation, concluding with this definitive statement:

The stats show that aside from his insanely high HR/FB rate (20 home runs in 80 fly balls), Ibanez’s current stats are not too far off from his true talent level. Both his on-base percentage and home run percentage are within one fluctuation of his projection, something we’d see 68 percent of the time, and his batting average is within 1.3 SDs of his projection.

Steroids? Nope.

I know that I have also come across other statistical analyses, but I regret that I did not save the links. Please feel free to post them in the comment section should you know of other good statistical breakdowns of Ibanez’s numbers in 2009. The ones above were the ones that struck me as the most illustrative and persuasive, which is why I have included them here.

So what does this all mean?

Well, looking at Zach Fine’s conclusion, he was able to definitively state what I had hoped to state when I initially set out to write my article: that steroids need not be speculated about as an explanation for Raul Ibanez’s fast start because there is such overwhelming evidence to the contrary. And while I have always maintained that I think Ibanez is clean, and that there are reasonable explanations for his fast start, I will happily admit that I am even more strongly in possession of this thought and belief now.

The great posts referenced above are in many ways more detailed and expository than even my own original post, and I’ve always been open-minded to any analysis or argument that perfectly natural factors are influencing Raul Ibanez’s start.

Still, I guess you could say that I just don’t have the same overall level of trust in Major League Baseball that Zach Fine appears to have. Perhaps his trust extends only to Raul Ibanez and only because he examined it in such a methodical way. Either way, I envy Zach because he accomplished what I wanted to accomplish but ended up failing to do: find enough objective statistics and explanations to overcome my pervasive distrust of Major League Baseball and all of its players, who — in my own mind, and in the mind of others — have been colored with varying shades of reasonable suspicion and speculation.

What I came to realize while writing my original article about Raul Ibanez, and in studying the statistical analyses I’ve found since, is that there is no level of objective analysis that will lead me to completely trust a Major League Baseball player save for a line of urine cups sealed and certified with dates and some synonym for the word “clean” on them. It has nothing to do with Raul Ibanez specifically, and in fact he is one of the guys I believe in the most, even moreso thanks to intelligent analyses that Zach Fine’s.

I continue to withold judgment one way or the other on all players, including Ibanez, until definitive proof is presented of steroid use. Honestly, I hope that by adding the statistical evidence above to what I already presented Monday that many other baseball fans can be persuaded to believe in Raul Ibanez specifically.

I will always be honest and provide my opinion on the topics I cover here at Midwest Sports Fans, because that’s what I believe the duty of a blogger is, but just because I’m skeptical doesn’t mean that I want others to share my skepticism.

Because the skepticism sucks, to be honest with you.

The summer of Big Mac and Sammy was awesome when it happened because we all believed that what we were seeing was legitimate. Only in hindsight do we now look back on it with shameful eyes (even though, remember, that Sammy Sosa has never been explicitly linked to steroids…except by Rick Reilly, of course), and I’d give anything as a baseball fan to return to the innoncence I had then. Contrast your visceral feelings during that summer with your feelings when Barry Bonds hit 73 or when Bonds was chasing Hank. We all know how much of a difference there was with that experience, and in many ways it ruined it for so many of us who live and breathe baseball during the summer.

And, by the way, for those of you who think I am opportunistically jumping on this steroids issue now and making a big deal about it because of the exposure I’ve recently received from the Ibanez story, watch the video below. I wrote the lyrics to this song while hungover one day when I was visiting KVB in Miami. KVB, for the record, is the one who who gets all the credit for masterfully finding the pictures and editing them together. This was somewhere in the neighborhood of 3-4 years ago during January…though I can’t remember the exact date.

What I am trying to show is that steroids in baseball (and football too) had already eroded my trust by that point and pissed me off to the point that it was the first subject I wanted to tackle when we created Flash Sports Tonight. This is a subject about which I am passionate and that I take very seriously, so you’ll have to forgive me if I get a bit defensive when people attack my motives as being anything less than genuine.

Anyway, here is the video, which still sums up by anger and disillusionsment with Major League Baseball.

(And for the record, because we have had a problem this week with people making snap judgments without reading or listening to what is actually said, the video is NOT purporting that Derek Jeter was a steroid user. Listen to the lyrics: “…but not Yankees #2…”. And Kenny Rogers’ appearance has nothing to do with steroids, but rather with how the pine tar incident from the World Series was yet another example of a player cheating his peers to get ahead. I hope think that should be all the clarifications that are necessary.)

So, sadly, thanks to the many cheating liars who have shamed the game of baseball, I continue to fight the whispers of doubt in my own head that persist even for the guys I believe in the most, like Raul Ibanez and Derek Jeter — both of whom would be among the players whose implication in any type of PED use would shock me the most.

To conclude this post, I will excerpt from my own post from last night (in which I discussed how much I want to regain trust in Major League Baseball again), because it sums up my prevailing thoughts on what I hope to see happen moving forward:

…And though that evil little whisper of skepticism mercilessly refuses to purge itself from my ear, I’m still going to fight to be optimistic. And I’m still going to root for Raul Ibanez, as I have been all along, to someday prove to be one of the explicit justifications for that optimism and a foundational test case upon which that optimism can endure.

And to those of you who made it all the way here to the end, you have my utmost and most sincere appreciation.

Have a great weekend everybody.

Of course, breaking news in the sports world does wait until you are ready for write about it. Case in point this weekend, and the not-so-startling allegations that Alex Rodriguez tested positive for steroids in 2003. And just in case you were wondering whether or not this really is a big story, take a look at this screenshot from the front page of BallHype:

Never in my BallHype experience (which, granted, is only the last four or five months) have I ever seen a story break triple digits in either hypes or links. The SI.com ARod story broke triple digits in both.

Wow. I guess it’s important, huh? Just so MSF doesn’t stick out like a boner in church as the only sports website on earth not linking to the SI.com article, here you go.

I am assuming that no one needs me to summarize the story. In case you do, here it is: ARod tested positive for steroids in 2003 and refused to deny the allegations when confronted by SI writer Selena Roberts. Additionally, as has been reported everywhere, just last year ARod denied ever using steroids in an interview with Katie Couric. Here is the video of said denial on CBS’ Eye to Eye:

Ouch.

ARod’s reputation has already taken hits over the past few years for his poor clutch performances, the failure of the Yankees to succeed in the playoffs, his divorce and rumored flings with Madonna, and the recent revelations from Joe Torre’s book that teammates referred to him as “A-Fraud”.

Now we have every reason to believe that ARod was among the hundreds (and maybe thousands) of Major Leaguers caught up in steroid use in the 90s and early 00s. Plus, to make matters even worse for ARod, we have distinct visual evidence of him apparently lying though his teeth on national television.

It might be the understatement to the century to say that this is not good for perhaps the most talented player in the history of Major League Baseball.

Despite consistent explicit and implied references to ARod’s douchebaggery throughout the sports blogosphere and media over the past decade, his one saving grace has always been the belief by most that Alex Rodriguez arrived at his monstrous numbers “legitimately” without the aid of performance-enhancing drugs. He will not have that going for him any longer.

Additionally, baseball fans who have already been conditioned to question every significant statistical achievement will now have even less belief in the legitimacy of the statistics from the “Juiced Era” of Major League Baseball. As the guys at Flash Sports Tonight so aptly pointed out a few years ago with their sublime music video, they are all a bunch of cheating liars:

Amazingly, this video originally came out before any specific allegations had become public about Roger Clemens. They obviously nailed that one right on the head. But not even the clairvoyant writers of FST could predict that Alex Rodriguez would someday be implicated in the far-reaching steroids era of Major League Baseball.

Alex Rodriguez has now seen his name added to one of the most infamous and ignominious lists in the history of sports: the list of alleged and known steroid and HGH users in Major League Baseball. Here is the complete list so far, courtesy of BaseballsSteroidEra.com.

List of Alleged or Known Steroids and HGH Users in Major League Baseball

———-

Implicated Players

1. Mark McGwire
2. Manny Alexander
3. Chuck Finley
4. Barry Bonds
5. Marvin Bernard
6. Randy Velarde
7. Wilson Alvarez
8. Bret Boone
9. Ozzie Canseco
10. Juan Gonzalez
11. Dave Martinez
12. Ivan Rodriguez
13. Tony Saunders
14. Miguel Tejada
15. Lenny Dykstra
16. Roger Clemens


17. Andy Pettitte
18. Brian Roberts
19. Jay Gibbons
20. Gary Matthews Jr.
21. David Bell
22. Darren Holmes
23. Rick Ankiel
24. Troy Glaus
25. Scott Schoeneweis
26. Matt Williams
27. Jose Guillen
28. Ismael Valdez
29. Magglio Ordonez
30. Alex Rodriguez

Admitted Users

1. Ken Caminiti
2. Bobby Estalella
3. Jason Giambi
4. Jeremy Giambi
5. Armando Rios
6. Benito Santiago
7. Gary Sheffield
8. Jose Canseco
9. Tom House
10. Wally Joyner
11. Jim Leyritz
12. Paxton Crawford
13. Jason Grimsley
14. David Segui
15. John Rocker
16. Paul Byrd
17. Shane Monahan

MLB Positive Tests

1. Alex Sanchez
2. Jorge Piedra
3. Agustin Montero
4. Jamal Strong
5. Juan Rincon
6. Rafael Betancourt
7. Rafael Palmeiro
8. Ryan Franklin
9. Mike Morse
10. Carlos Almanzar
11. Felix Heredia
12. Matt Lawton
13. Yusaku Iriki
14. Guillermo Mota
15. Juan Salas
16. Dan Sefarini
17. Eliezer Alfonzo
18. Humberto Cota
19. Henry Owens
20. JC Romero
21. Sergio Mitre

Players Implicated in Mitchell Report

1. Ricky Bones
2. Alex Cabrera
3. Larry Bigbie
4. Jack Cust
5. Tim Laker
6. Todd Hundley
7. Hal Morris
8. Mark Carreon
9. Matt Franco
10. Rondell White
11. Chuck Knoblauch
12. Greg Zaun
13. David Justice
14. FP Santangelo
15. Glenallen Hill
16. Mo Vaughn
17. Denny Neagle
18. Ron Villone
19. Chris Donnels
20. Todd Williams
21. Phil Hiatt
22. Todd Pratt
23. Kevin Young
24. Mike Lansing
25. Cody McKay
26. Kent Mercker
27. Adam Piatt
28. Jason Christiansen
29. Mike Stanton
30. Stephen Randolph
31. Paul Lo Duca
32. Adam Riggs
33. Bart Miadich
34. Fernando Vina
35. Kevin Brown
36. Eric Gagne
37. Mike Bell
38. Matt Herges
39. Gary Bennett Jr.
40. Jim Parque
41. Brendan Donnelly
42. Chad Allen
43. Jeff Williams
44. Howie Clark
45. Nook Logan

Other

1. Termel Sledge
2. Derek Turnbow
3. Dave Hollis
4. Rico Brogna

Once again, this list is available and constantly updated over at BaseballsSteroidsEra.com, and I highly suggest that you visit their site to learn more about the latest allegations and history of PED use in baseball.

I guess at the end of the day I am really not surprised in the least that Alex Rodriguez tested positive for steroids. The ARod allegations have erased whatever benefit-of-the-doubt was left about certain players who we all thought might have been clean. About the only players I can think of who could have allegations of steroid use brought against them that would surprise me are Frank Thomas and Greg Maddux. But honestly, even if they were accused of steroid use I would probably just shrug my shoulders and not think much more about it.

Like Rasheed Wallace said: it is what it is, and it do what it do.

I still play fantasy baseball, I still watch every White Sox game that is on TV here in Dallas, and I still love the game. It pisses me off that these players thought that they could cheat and get away with it, and I do not understand why players do not just come forward and be up front about it. The lying and disrespect is what really pisses me off, and fans in general I think; but I think forgiveness will come pretty easily for players who just come clean.

We’ll see how Alex Rodriguez handles the latest allegations that have rocked the Major League Baseball world. Sadly, my expectation is that he will continue his history of douchebaggery and try to find some way to deny it and evade blame. I already don’t have much respect for ARod, other than obvious respect for his prodigious talent. I think he has an opportunity to earn some respect from the baseball world for being one of the few guys to take a stand-up and honest approach to dealing with steroid allegations.

I doubt he will though, which will cement his legacy as nothing more than most talented of the cheating liars who have tainted the integrity of America’s Pastime.