Fortunately, we’ve never forgotten nor stopped developing our inside jokes, and our friendship – built on a firm foundation of constant laughter, random silliness, the White Sox, and yes, grab ass – endures to this day.

Kevin lives in Indiana and I live in Dallas, so we don’t see eachother as often, but we do talk on the phone regularly; and these conversations with Kevin always thoroughly entertain me. On the off chance that they entertain anyone else I decided to start a podcast series called Conversations with Kevin.

You should know that I have no plan for this right know other than simply to record some of our conversations and post them here. If it catches on, I’ll keep posting them. If it doesn’t, I’ll probably still keep posting them because it will give me an excuse to talk about the White Sox with Kevin during work hours.

And if you haven’t noticed, I’ve built my career around developing rationalizations to be able to talk, tweet, and blog about the White Sox during work hours. The job I always wanted and now I have it; I rule.

So anyway, here is Episode 1. It is appropriately titled “The Beginning”. I hope you enjoy it. Topic rundown below.

[Note: Podcast does contain naughty language like random f-bombs and "Chicago Cubs". You've been forewarned.]

Click play on the player below to listen:

How to subscribe to Conversations with Kevin:

• Subscribe to Conversations with Kevin on iTunes (coming soon)
• Join the Conversations with Kevin Email Digest to get an email whenever a new episode is posted (coming soon)
• Follow Conversations with Kevin on Twitter or via RSS to get random funny tweets and updates as soon as new episodes are posted.
• Download this quickcast in mp3 format for later: Right-click this link, then hit “save link as”

Music shoutouts:

• Credit for the intro song “Let Me Love You” goes to Austin Bridges, the former band of Davey Heritier, now the lead guitarist for KontraBand Musik.
• The outro song is a cut from “Dax McCarty’s Magic Elixer” by MSF favorite The Twin Cats.

And here is a rundown of the wide variety of topics we touch on in Episode 1:

• How difficult day trading is in with the current market conditions
• The leadership of Paul Konerko
• Why it would be bad if White Sox fans followed the team’s “all in” marketing slogan
• Plans for Jerod’s trip to the Midwest in September
• How this conversation should be used as the first episode of a new podcast called “Conversations with Kevin”
• Kevin’s role as mascot of Midwest Sports Fans – the Midwest Sports Fans.
• The possibility of getting a “Midwest Sports Van” to ride around in and solve sports mysteries (plus other things that rhyme with “fan”…)
• How Trey Parker and Matt Stone could make the world a better place
• The age-old question: was Aesop (the fable guy) actually a Keebler Elf?
• Kudos for Kevin successfully quitting smoking
• The amazing picture of Shaq and his diminutive girlfriend. And other stuff.

Paul Konerko – the ONLY player in the AL currently in the top 5 of all three Triple Crown categories – was NOT chosen as an All Star this year. There is not one person who doesn’t think, in the immortal words of Bob Knight, that such a snub is absolute fucking bullshit*.

Luckily, MLB does have a way to write egregious wrongs such as this.

So join me in what I am officially dubbing the “Paul In” campaign (#PaulIn on Twitter) to get Paul Konerko to the All Star Game: http://atmlb.com/k0dHWw.

I just voted 20-some times and plan to vote a lot more.

White Sox fans, fans of baseball in general, and anyone who cares about justice and right prevailing over wrong should be voting for Paul Konerko. Come on. Let’s get Paul in.

(BTW, in case you don’t get the connection, I chose “Paul In” to go with the White Sox season slogan of “All In.” Seems to fit in multitudes of ways. If you agree, let’s roll with it.)

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* – I don’t use such strong language on this site very often; so when I do, you can be sure it is for a good and meaningful reason.

The All-Star break is just two weeks away and when running a team, you want to see who is going into the break strong and who is just coasting in.  So without further ado, your hitting planner.

Catcher

Luckily for those of you who own one of the Detroit Tigers players Alex Avila or Victor Martinez, there are two things to look forward to this upcoming scoring period.  Hot bats and no more shuffled playing time between the two because the remainder of games against NL teams will be at home.

Mentioning teammates again, Mike Napoli is available to come back from the DL on Monday but reports have shown that he has not swung the bat.  His backup, Yorvit Torrealba isn’t full strength either as he has been battling fatigue but once he is in the lineup look for him to provide some scoring opportunities. 

Carlos Santana has been on fire lately after his terrible April, don’t be surprised if he winds up being ranked in the top three player for this month.

Stay away from Jorge Posada.

First Base

Paul Konerko isn’t the only hot first 1^st basemen belting homeruns game after game.  The Cubs’ Carlos Pena has locked in his power and is lighting up the fantasy board with his homerun and RBI numbers.  Even though his average is lower than desirable, you can’t ignore what he is doing at the plate.

Even though it seems like Jason Giambi is hitting the ball out of the park every time he steps up to the plate, the time has expired for him to get you any consistent fantasy points.  The remainder of the Rockies Interleague games are at home where no DH is needed and the team isn’t going to start him over Todd Helton by any stretch, who by the way, may need some time on the bench this week.

Already struggling against AL teams, Joey Votto is going up against two of the league’s better pitching teams at Tampa Bay and Cleveland.  Sit him.

Second Base

As a pleasant surprise for you and the Oakland A’s, Jemile Weeks looks to become the full-time starter at second base and his numbers thus far have been impressive.  While his power is a work in progress, he has the foot speed to leg out extra base hits and rack up some steals.  Don’t shy away from this young talent.  His brother Rickie Weeks could use a rest.

Just because Jeff Keppinger is a journeyman, doesn’t mean he can’t play the game.  After seeing no playing time up until late May, he has maintained a .323 average and looks like he could be a decent option at the position.

Continuing the week’s trend of lesser-known 2^nd basemen we bring you another over 30 player in Orlando Hudson.  Since coming off the DL, he has sparked the lowly Padre offense.  Take a long hard look at him because chances are he is going to keep this streak up.

Just for this month alone, Robinson Cano is back stuffing his stat-line with a batting average almost 100 points higher than last month.

Third Base

The word in Colorado is that Ty Wigginton will soon be replaced, but he is hitting as if that will never happen.  If you need a short term option at the corner he could very well be your guy. 

Chase Headley is only owned by 64% of managers out there but he is ranked as the 6^th best fantasy option at his position.  Chances are he’s available and you should grab him. 

Chipper Jones is still feeling the effects of his groin strain, be careful with him in your lineup.

One streaky player to notice is Danny Valencia, he is going to catch some good matchups this period against lefties (hitting 100 points higher) so he might bring some value. 

Evan Longoria should break out of his most recent slump as he is going up against a pretty weak staff in St. Louis.

Shortstop

The only reason J.J. Hardy isn’t the number one rated SS over the past week is because he doesn’t have the stolen base numbers that will put him over the top.  Now that he has stepped into the leadoff role, look for him to make getting on base a huge priority.

Another player receiving a lot of recognition as of late is Alcides Escobar.  He hits much better on the road and has torn it up against the NL this year.  What’s on the schedule for him?  A road trip that includes games at Colorado and San Diego, so expect some big things from him this week.

Jimmy Rollins looks like he could return to elite company at the position if his batting average can improve from the mediocre .261 mark.  He has more homeruns this month than he did for April and June combined.   

Stephen Drew is the first person who comes to mind when considering players to bench this week.  He is hitting horrible against all AL teams AND lefties he has faced this year.  Talk about a recipe for disaster.

If your league isn’t that deep in terms of teams, say 7-11 and you have Hanley Ramirez on your squad; it may be time to consider some changes.  He hasn’t been producing to the extent that you would want from him but his move to cleanup in the batting order may help with more production.

Outfield

Jose Bautista may have cooled off a bit from his blazing hot start but there aren’t enough negatives that warrant him to take a seat anywhere, keep him in the lineup.

With teammate Rick Ankiel out, Roger Bernadina is looking to put his stamp on the starting CF position.  He has shown a balanced offensive attack hitting for power and average and doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon.

There is no doubt that Chris Heisey has the potential to be a good player but his play is just too sporadic.  His 3 homerun game against the Yanks caught everyone’s attention in baseball but it would be wise not to jump the bandwagon just yet.

Here are a few players who have been receiving more playing time and we’ll tell you what they can bring to your team. 

• Will Venable finds ways to get on base and when he does he’s going to swipe some bags.
• Oriole OF Adam Jones has been a full-time starter but nobody seems to respect him as a fantasy player; yet.  The suggestion is to find a way to get him on your squad before he is gone.
• If there are any KC fans out there, then they would know that Alex Gordon has been shuffled in the lineup.  Moving from leadoff to cleanup will mean two things, a jump in RBIs but decrease runs scored.
• As much as we love Jason Heyward, it may be best to wait until he breaks out of his slump before you give him too much playing time.  Don’t worry, he’ll come out of it but this just isn’t the week.

I figured I might as well do occasional updates on these “predictions,” so as to capriciously praise or condemn myself.

Underrated

Miguel Cabrera

This machine keeps hitting. Top 10 in every meaningful offensive category. He’s underrated simply because he doesn’t get the attention that Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez and other superstars get. And this year, because of his offseason DUI, it seems the media is even more apathetic to his on-field exploits.

Grade so far on my prediction: PASS

Shin Soo-Choo:

How is it that two of my underrated guys got DUIs?

Anyway, despite Cleveland’s success, Choo is having a down season. No other way to rationalize it. He needs to step up if the Tribe want to maintain their April/May success.

Grade: FAIL

Paul Konerko:

Mashing as usual, especially lately. Top 5 in the big offensive categories. Rapidly closing in on 400 homers and 2000 hits. How many media guys would say he’s a better player than Ryan Howard? 10%? I don’t even think it’s a comparison, and the stats back ME up. Howard will never get 2000 hits and 400 HRs is questionable. Konerko somehow gets better with age.

Grade: PASS

Adam Dunn:

I often compare the media love for Ryan Howard to Adam Dunn, as I feel they’re equal players (same age, same style, Howard higher average, Dunn better power numbers, etc), but if I’m to call out Ryan, Adam needs the same treatment.

You can’t spin this anymore here in the second week of June: he’s been a disaster!

Hitting well under .200; just five homers and 23 RBIs in 54 games; leads the league in strikeouts, and a startling 1 for 42 versus left-handed pitching. When I was in Chicago over the weekend, callers on 670 The Score were not pleased with The Big Donkey’s performance.

Grade: FAIL

Ryan Zimmerman:

Has been out for two months.

Grade: N/A

Overrated

Ryan Howard:

The “centerpiece” of my article was the Phillies’ big first baseman, who’s been at the top of my list (and emails, texts and tweets) of overhyped ballplayers for years. I don’t see anything in 2011 to change my mind; in fact, I’m more confident in my views than ever.

After a decent April, he was awful in May (.208, 36 Ks), and not much better in June (.208 again so far). Though his RBIs remain relatively high (3rd in NL at 47), his homerun numbers (and overall power categories like slugging, OPS and OBP) continue to fall, while his strikeouts remain 2nd in the National League (72, on pace for nearly 200).  He has yet to homer off a lefty in 60 games this season. Howard’s OPS — the most relevant category for a power guy — is barely top 30. He walks as infrequently as any power hitter: just 59 times in 2010 and 26 times so far in 2011.

If you’re looking for a player on the back-end of his career, who doesn’t get on base much, whiffs a lot, is slow, suspect with the glove, but will get you 25-30 HRs with 100 RBIs and maybe a .260 average, he’s your man. I’m just stating obvious facts. His backers are getting desperate.

To reiterate, I’m hard-pressed to find a player in the league for whom there is a greater disconnect between perceived value and actual value.

Grade so far on my prediction that Howard is overrated: PASS

Carlos Pena:

The Cubs first baseman hit .258 with seven homeruns in May. I can’t really criticize that after a .159 April, but he’s still a putrid 3 for 43 off lefties (.070), and carrying a .217 overall average; yet this overpaid 33-year old is a lifetime .240 hitter, so what do we expect? He doesn’t strikeout quite as much as Howard or Dunn, but that proves little. He’s still overrated.

Grade: PASS

BJ Upton: Upton rightly doesn’t get the love he once received, but still, when you think of the Rays, after Longoria, BJ’s name comes up. Why?  You like .220 hitters with limited power and bad attitudes?

Grade: PASS

Jeff Francoeur:

Has expectedly cooled considerably after a surprisingly hot start. Jeff’s still at .272/9/38, but he’s around .240 since April ended. I don’t expect him to get hotter as the summer approaches either.

Grade: MIXED

Mark Reynolds:

Under .200 still. “Only” 61 whiffs in 58 games, but still, just nine homeruns, which is below his standards. In Arizona, he mashed 121 dingers over four seasons, so now I’m really not sure what he brings to Baltimore, but I could say the same about Pena, Dunn and many others right now.

Grade: PASS

So I’m looking at decent grades (80% or so) outside of two guys.

Agree/disagree? Bring facts, not conjecture nor ad hominem attacks. Thanks.

I figured I might as well do a monthly update on these “predictions,” so as to capriciously praise or condemn myself.

Underrated

Miguel Cabrera: One of baseball’s best — if not the best in the AL — who rarely gets included in those lists, is off to his usual strong start, near the top of the league in many meaningful categories. How many have noticed? Few. The man who just turned 28 should eclipse 1500 hits sometime in July. Amazing. (Grade so far on my prediction: PASS)

Shin-Soo Choo: I didn’t go out on a limb here as many view this guy in similar fashion. He’s finally coming around a bit after a slow start, but with his team hot (welcome back, Grady Sizemore!), the Korean has begun to hit. His RBI numbers are particularly strong, since he finally has some talent around him. (Prediction Grade: Mixed)

Ryan Zimmerman: A strong start through eight games before injury. Unfortunately, no specific timetable on his return. (Grade: N/A)

Paul Konerko: The veteran just continues to rake, as he’s near the top of the AL in nearly all meaningful categories, yet Pauly still doesn’t get all the recognition he’s earned. On pace for around 40 Hrs and 140 knocked in. Will probably get his 400th career long ball and 2000th hit in 2011. (Grade: PASS)

Adam Dunn: Like the White Sox, Dunn’s been a major disappointment so far. No explanations for now, but I expect him to heat up as the weather does. (Grade: Fail)

Overrated

Ryan Howard: The “centerpiece” of my article is the Phillies’ big first baseman, who’s been at the top of my list of overhyped ballplayers for years. Though his RBIs remain relatively high, his homerun numbers (and overall power categories like slugging, OPS and OBP) continue to fall, while his strikeouts remain near the top of the league. If you’re looking for a player on the back-end of his career, doesn’t walk, whiffs a lot, is slow, suspect with the glove, but will get you 25-30 HRs with 100 RBIs and a .275 average, he’s your man. Just not an elite player deserving of an elite contract and elite publicity from ESPN. Those are facts.

Basically, as I said in my article, I’m hard-pressed to find a player in the league for whom there is a greater disconnect between perceived value and actual value. Finally, I think people are beginning to agree with me. (Grade on my prediction: Mixed)

Carlos Pena: Quite a signing by the Cubs, eh? Yes, it’s only a month in, but Pena’s already proving, as I noted, to hardly be an everyday player. The punchouts remain high, the average still appallingly low (below .200 for second year in a row), and Carlos cannot hit lefties. He makes $10 million per year. An absolute joke. A tougher fan base would’ve already forced Mike Quade’s hand, but most Wrigley fans don’t care about winning, just carousing. (Grade for me: PASS)

BJ Upton: A sad story about  kid with potential who simply cannot realize it. Upton continues to hit very low average, limited power and high strikeouts. Though he’s hit a bit better this week, all in all, the aforementioned is a horrific combination. I wish BJ the best, but he’s just not producing. (Grade for me: PASS)

Jeff Francoeur: He was a stretch to include, yet I was willing to take the risk; so far, I’m way off. Despite struggles last season, “Frenchy” is tearing it up for an erstwhile surprising Royals squad. We’ll see how long he stays in KC as they go toward a youth movement, but he’s doing well so far (Grade: Fail)

Mark Reynolds: I’m not a GM, but I do know what kind of players I dislike, and Reynolds is the type. I don’t understand what teams see in him. While Mark has been so futile he’s made Ryan Howard (199 Ks in 2007 and 2008) and others prone to the punch-out vanish from the headlines, he’s “only” on pace for about 160 Ks in 2011. However, the Orioles’ third baseman is baseman is hitting under .200 AGAIN, and this time not even producing power. At least in Arizona he mashed 121 dingers over four seasons. The local media is so desperate for anything from the free agent acquisition that they’re writing full articles hailing games where he gets a hit! (Grade: PASS)

Stay tuned for another update at the end of May.

However, my pride in the mammoth visitor numbers we put up during the Big Game cannot compete with the pride I feel in seeing a member of the MSF team featured in one of the preeminent baseball preview magazines hitting newsstands everywhere as we zoom closer to pitchers and catchers reporting.

So, on behalf of the entire MSF team, I’d like to congratulate MSF’s own co-editor Ari Kaufman for earning the well-deserved honor of having his writing featured in the USA Today Baseball Preview Magazine. The article is entitled “Some players are overrated and others are underrated. We name names.” As usual, Ari provides strong opinions…and backs them up with numbers.

And for those of you familiar with Ari’s writing, it will not surprise you which side of the argument Ryan Howard is on.

The article is not available online via USA Today, but we did post it on MSF here. You can find it anywhere they sell sports magazines, from Barnes & Noble and Target to Wal-Mart and your local grocery store or CVS/Walgreens.

Here are high-res images of the article, shrunken down to fit the width of the post area. You should still be able to read it pretty easily.

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Here are the various regional covers:

Covers are regional, and there are eight in all:

1. C.C. Sabathia/David Wright (northeast)

2. Roy Halladay/Ryan Zimmerman (mid-Atlantic)

3. Jason Heyward/Evan Longoria/Hanley Ramirez (southeast)

4. Joey Votto (Ohio/Indiana/Michigan)

5. Paul Konerko/Justin Morneau (Chicago/Miwaukee/Minnesota)

6. Albert Pujols/Josh Hamilton (south central)

7. Andre Ethier/Jered Weaver/Mat Latos (southwest)

8. Tim Lincecum/Felix Hernandez (Bay Area/Rocky Mountains/Northwest)

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Baseball fans are a unique lot. They’re often obsessed with statistics, and they love lists. One particular interest, especially in the era of fantasy sports, is ranking current players either versus each other or those of the past.

With this in mind, as we steamroll toward the 2011 campaign, let’s take a look at the five most overrated and underrated position players in the game today, sticking with guys who have at least three seasons in the big leagues.

The Most Overrated Position Players in Baseball

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Overrated: Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia first baseman’s power numbers are his legit strength, but in 2010 those fell substantially — about 30 percent — as he turned 30. Hitting only 31 homers notwithstanding, Howard also appears to be declining in other areas: he’s been horrid his past three playoff series, especially power (zero RBI in nine 2010 games) and strikeouts (30 in his last 52 postseason at bats going back to his record-breaking strikeout run in the 2009 Fall Classic).

Howard’s average (.279 career) also remains suspect, and his walks are very low for power hitter (just 57 in 2010). Compared to the NL’s ‘elite’ first basemen like Pujols, Votto and others, Howard is subpar defensively. Late in games, he’s become a liability versus lefties.

Yet Ryan is still celebrated with numerous commercials, three all star game selections, and awards like 2005 ROY and 2006 MVP. Is he somehow living off 2006 and some excellent power numbers his first five seasons? Confirming, even in a down 2010 season — 17th in OPS — Howard still received numerous top 5 NL MVP votes, including one second place, meaning a writer voted him over Albert Pujols or Joey Votto.

Within all this, in order to keep their aging Howard-Utley-Rollins nucleus together, the Phillies gave him the second highest contract in the game: SEVEN years at roughly 25 million per. Imagine Howard at age 37?

I’m hard-pressed to find a player in the league for whom there is a greater disconnect between perceived value and actual value.

Overrated: Carlos Pena, 1B, Chicago Cubs

The quasi-journeyman is definitely a good story, but nearing age 33, he’s become a poor man’s Ryan Howard — on Ryan’s worst day. Pena’s has become so ineffective he now bats close to the bottom of Tampa’s order, and does not regularly play versus lefties.

Irrespective of his homers, as theoretical middle-of-the-order guy, his job is to drive in runs. Pena clearly failed at that in 2010, falling well short of 100 RBI. In fact, he didn’t even put the ball in play that much (158 Ks vs. 95 hits).

Despite having decent power and a reliable glove, Pena’s also a .241 career hitter in more than 1,000 games, who hit a league-worst .196 in 2010 (an incredulous .179 versus lefties), and carries a sub .200 average against lefties the past three years combined. To make matters worse, as you might have surmised, Pena strikes out a ton.

Overrated: Mark Reynolds, 3B, Baltimore Orioles

High punch-out guys with decent power and low averages are becoming a theme, and Mark Reynolds may be the prime example. Playing in the desert for a team that’s struggled the past few seasons probably obscures his historic futility at the plate. While the third baseman is a lifetime .240 hitter, he’s whiffed an astounding 767 times in 563 career big league games. The past three years his strikeout totals have been 204, 223 and 211. Reynolds has been so futile he’s made Ryan Howard (199 in 2007 and 2008) and others prone to the punch-out vanish from the headlines.

Overrated: B.J. Upton, OF, Tampa Bay Rays

Here is a guy truly living off a 2008 postseason, where he was certainly remarkable. But the elder Upton has done nothing to impress since. In fact, his younger brother, Justin, is better in every area, yet happens to play in Arizona, which has become baseball’s warmer version of Siberia. These last two seasons Upton has hit only .241 and 237 with no power, yet somehow still had high strikeouts (over 150 in 2009 and 2010).

Overrated: Jeff Francoeur, OF, Kansas City Royals

While “Frenchy” is still just 27, he has a lot of wear due to beginning his major league career at age 21 in 2005. Since that rookie campaign (.300 with 14 homers in just 70 games), Jeff’s average has consistently been low. His power has been limited at best sans 2006, and he was an absolute liability at the plate in the 2010 postseason for Texas: 3 for 24 with just one RBI. Despite a strong arm in right, his speed is well below average.

Honorable Mention: Carlos Beltran, Pat Burrell, Russell Martin, Xavier Nady, Jhonny Peralta

The Most Underrated Position Players in Baseball

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Underrated: Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers

After bursting on the national scene during the Marlins 2003 title run at the tender age of 20, this Venezuelan now has a whopping 247 career HRs, 1400 hits, and perhaps most impressively, a .313 lifetime batting average. Cabrera, who seems more comfortable at first base than his original slot on the hot corner, will still be just 27 years old on opening day. He should have 1000 RBI by the close of the 2011 campaign.

With power to all fields, Cabrera is only getting better with age, augmenting his production with relatively little support around him. His stellar career statistics stand alongside a 2010 year that included a .330 average, 38 big flies, 126 RBI, a .420 on-base percentage, and well over a .1000 OPS, with fewer than 100 strikeouts.

Yet despite these eye-opening accomplishments, is he ever considered one of ‘the best in the game’ along with the likes of Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Josh Hamilton, Joe Mauer, and others when those perfunctory lists are compiled? Needless to add, Cabrera was denied the 2010 AL MVP, finishing second to Josh Hamilton.

Underrated: Adam Dunn, OF/DH, Chicago White Sox

Do people realize that the big man from Texas has crushed at least 38 long balls seven consecutive seasons? And while Dunn is often maligned for his defense, people still focus on his adventures in left field — a spot where he never should have been while in Cincinnati. Maybe DH is his future, but Adam is more than adequate right now at first base, and surely as good as the celebrated Ryan Howard defensively.

Born ten days before Howard in 1979, “The Big Donkey” also has over 100 more career dingers (354) and RBI (880) than the Philadelphia first baseman. But unlike Howard and others, Dunn’s lone all star selection came way back in 2002, and it seems like every offseason he’s tossed aside, looking for a team to offer him a long-term contract. His name somehow generates more criticism than praise, despite the fact that Adam Dunn’s is regarded as great teammate and his production clearly speaks for itself.

Dunn’s 2007-2010 numbers are equivalent to, or better, than Howard’s, while stuck on inferior teams. His 2010 numbers with Washington –second in the league in homers — were actually superior to Howard’s in every meaningful category but average.

So, when does Adam get his big contracts and accolades, or like Howard, at least Subway commercials and Entourage cameos?

Underrated: Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox

A .280 lifetime hitter — .312 with 39 dingers and 110 steaks last season — who’s won a world title, is brilliant defensively, closing in on 400 HRs and 2000 hits in just 12 seasons, is a potential Hall of Famer, right? His name is Paul Konerko. Does that change your mind? Talk about a guy playing in a big market that is overlooked. Mr. Konerko was fifth in AL MVP voting for 2010, but that’s about his highest individual “honor.”

Perhaps part of why Chicago’s first baseman doesn’t get the recognition he deserves is because he’s among the league’s streakier players. Paul has had entire halves of seasons where he’s been non-existent. Consistency from year-to-year has been an issue for him. Nonetheless, his career accomplishments are undeniable.

Underrated: Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Cleveland Indians

Choo is semi-quietly putting up great in what amounts to roughly four seasons. He’s already 29, so he’s in his prime, but most wouldn’t know the Cleveland right-fielder except for his military service “controversy” based out of his native Korea. {Despite escalating tensions with North Korea, Choo was exempted from his military obligation in South Korea following the country’s November gold medal in the Asian Games. The outfielder hit .571 with three homers and 11 RBIs in four contests.}

A strong defensive player, Choo is a .300 lifetime hitter with decent power on bad Indian teams. He was 9th in the AL in OPS, ahead of people like Alex Rodriguez, Evan Longoria, Joe Mauer, and MLB-wise, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Ryan Howard and David Wright.

Underrated: Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals

The man known as “Z-Pack” by the media will be only 26 years old for the 2011 season; but as a charter member of the Washington Nationals going back to when he was 20 in 2005, Zimmerman looks and acts like a veteran. His numbers are very consistent for young player: aside from an injury-plagued 2008, he’s hit 20 homers and knocked in 100 runs (or close) each season. Zimmerman is an awesome defensive third baseman and a team leader, who, on a big market team, would be known as well as David Wright or Mark Teixeira.

And can he get some love for apparently just being a mature, good all-around guy? “ziMS Foundation,” of which he’s the president, raises money in search of a cure for Multiple Sclerosis.

Honorable Mention: Dan Uggla, Michael Cuddyer, Billy Butler, Rajai Davis, Mike Napoli

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What do you think? Do you agree/disagree with the picks above? Who do you think are the most overrated and underrated players in baseball? Chime in below with your comments.

Busts always damage hopes of a championship, whether it’s: the usual suspects (guys like Jimmy Rollins, who always seem to let down their owners; the one-year wonder (guys like Ben Zobrist, who only seemed destined for great things; or the power hitter who goes into the huge slump (think Carlos Peña).

This year, there are several players who fantasy owners should stay away from.  These are just a few of them (click here for the complete list):

Catcher- John Buck, Florida Marlins

Buck’s 20 homers last year were second among catchers to only Brian McCann.  However, Buck should be nowhere near the top of fantasy catcher rankings this year.

A career .243 hitter, even after a breakout .281 last year, Buck has never been a reliable option for fantasy owners.  Now after a very good year by catcher standards, Buck should still not be trusted to be more than a backup in fantasy this year.

First Base- Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox

Konerko had a rebound year after in 2010 three subpar years by his own standards.  However, the White Sox first baseman will be 35 before next season begins.  Almost all of his offensive numbers were much higher than any of the last four years.

Even with the addition of Adam Dunn to the lineup, it is difficult to see an aging Konerko putting up numbers like he did last year.  Konerko will be one of the players that many people will reach for, but do not be fooled:  Konerko is not someone that should be taken in the early rounds.

Shortstop- Derek Jeter, New York Yankees

Yes, age can actually catch up to even the great Yankee captain.

Jeter showed little power last year and figures to keep declining.  He is going to hit decently, although his batting champion days are over.  Jeter is no longer a top shortstop for fantasy purposes.

If not for the reputation and opinion of Jeter by most people, he would not even make this list because he is already coming off one of his worst offensive seasons.  At age 37 by June, it is not time to once again believe that you can count on Jeter.

There are many other shortstops who will produce better numbers than Jeter this year.  Only go to the Yankee legend if you are in need of runs, where he should still be a big producer.

Outfield- Jayson Werth, Washington Nationals

Werth will not have an awful season, but there is no way he matches the numbers he has put up in recent years.  The Nationals’ new right fielder is coming from the second best offense in the National League to the now Dunn-less Nationals.

Werth no longer has the advantage of hitting behind the likes of Utley and Howard, who always seemed to be on base for Werth to knock in.  Werth’s RBI numbers and runs scored will definitely drop.  He is still worth a roster spot, but do not reach to get him as you might if he were in that Phillies lineup.

This is only a part of Ryan’s list of possible busts for the 2011 fantasy baseball season. Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see the complete list of fantasy baseball 2011 busts. Commenting is turned off here, but feel free to ask questions over at MSF Fantasy Sports.

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* – Derek Jeter photo credit: Halip/Getty via NY Daily News

For the average fantasy owner, the answers to those questions are simply pure guesswork and speculation.  However, for the dedicated Midwest Sports Fans subscriber (premium features coming soon!) we have better ways to give you answers.

The answers lie deep in the statistical backgrounds of players where statistics beneath the surface statistics become indicators of a season’s validity.  Here we can decipher if indeed a player’s breakout was a fluke, if a guy’s drop off was an aberration, or if the previous season was a sign for things to come.

So this brings us to our lucky/unlucky article where I’ll give you three [Editor's note: actually just one, click here to see the full article] of the luckiest hitters and pitchers in the MLB last season (players who most likely will not continue their level of production) and three of the unluckiest hitters and pitchers in the league (or players who are likely to see a bounce back season from the year before).  Are you as excited as I am?  Let’s go.

LUCKY HITTERS

Paul Konerko- Highest BABIP (.326) of his career last season pulled his average to new levels as well.  Added spike in HR/FB% also signifies a pullback from his monstrous 2010 lift off.

To see more, click here.

UNLUCKY HITTERS

Aramis Ramirez- Posted lowest BABIP since 1999 (when he only played in 18 games) of .245.  HR/FB% was also 2% below career norms. The average will return, and with a healthy Ramirez so will the power.  He’s not done yet.

To see more, click here.

LUCKY PITCHERS

Tim Hudson- I would dub him as the luckiest starting pitcher of 2010.  Was huge benefactor of career low BABIP (.250) and career high strand percentage (81.2%) in the same season.  This obviously won’t continue, and will send him back to fantasy irrelevancy, because of his lack of strikeout production.

To see more, click here.

UNLUCKY PITCHERS

Jonathan Paplebon- Was hurt by a 68% BABIP last year, the lowest of his career.  Still through all the fire maintained his job a kept his ERA below 4.  A return to normal levels plus the offensive firepower that now resides in Boston should equal a return to dominance for Paplebon.

Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see Derek’s complete analysis of the luckiest and unluckiest hitters and pitchers of 2010. Commenting is disabled here, but feel free to ask your questions there.

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* – Paul Konerko photo credit: Sun-Times

If you are a fan of the Chicago White Sox, as I am, then this is a tune to keep in mind once next Tuesday rolls around. Why? That is when the Good Guys host the Twin Cities Piranhas in a three game set that will decide the AL Central.

Let’s preview the series and see just how optimistic White Sox fans should reasonably be about their team rising to the occasion in the most important series of the season.

White Sox-Twins: The Preceding Weekend

As I write this on Saturday morning, the White Sox sit 5.0 games behind Minnesota in the standings, thanks to last night’s thrilling come-from-behind home victory over the Royals. Each team has two games left before their pivotal tilt begins

The White Sox send Edwin Jackson to the hill today at home versus Kyle Davies. Jackson has been outstanding since the White Sox acquired him, although his history versus Kansas City is a bit checkered. Davies’ history against the White Sox is similarly checkered. Still, I think everyone would be shocked if the White Sox didn’t win this battle.

On Sunday, Freddy Garcia takes the hill for Chicago against Sean O’Sullivan of Kansas City. I see no discernible advantage here, so this game is a toss-up.

The Twins are in Cleveland, where they were shut down last night. Today, Nick Blackburn takes on rookie Carlos Carrasco and on Sunday it’s Kevin Slowey against Mitch Talbot. Carrasco and Talbot are better than you think, while Slowey has struggled since returning from injury. Blackburn has poor overall numbers but has been very good over the last 3-4 weeks.

All in all, I expect both the White Sox and Twins to split their games this weekend, meaning the Twins will still have a 5.0 game lead on Tuesday. From a White Sox perspective, this needs to be the absolute worst case weekend scenario. Losing any more ground is simply out of the question with only three weeks left in the season.

Update 9/13: Well, this didn’t go quite as planned. The Twins both of their weekend games while the White Sox split with Kansas City. So the Sox sit 6.0 games out as their pivotal series with Minnesota begins.

White Sox-Twins Preview: Tuesday

• First pitch: 7:10 CT
• TV: CSN
• Pitching Matchup: Francisco Liriano (13-7, 3.24 ERA) vs John Danks (13-10, 3.54 ERA)

This is a terrific pitching matchup in a series full of them. Liriano and Danks, both lefties, have had remarkably similar seasons. Not only are their overall numbers very similar, but their numbers against their Tuesday opponent are also similar.

• Danks vs MIN this year: 5 G, 2-1, 34.0 IP, 4.24 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 25:9 K:BB
• Liriano vs CHI this year: 4 G, 2-0, 24.1 IP, 4.07 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 20:13 K:BB

Both guys have actually pitched better against their rival this year than over their careers. Danks and Liriano have 5.00+ ERAs and 1.50+ WHIPs career against Minnesota and Chicago, respectively. And while both pitchers come into this game on the heels of at least two straight quality starts (Liriano has three straight), both have thrown up two duds out of their last six outings.

So history, both recent and distant, tells us that this may not be the low-scoring pitchers’ duel that we otherwise might expect just looking at the names.

Looking deeper into the numbers, Danks’ and Liriano’s home/road split this year should make White Sox fans feel better:

• Danks at home this year: 3.34 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .218 BAA, 81:25 K:BB
• Liriano on road this year: 4.16 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, .266 BAA, 82:26 K:BB

Interestingly, while Liriano’s numbers match up with this career splits, Danks over his career has actually been about the same on the road as he is at home. Still, the fact that this game is in Chicago appears to be, from a pitching standpoint, a clear advantage for Chicago.

Which batters can we expect to step up?

For Minnesota, Michael Cuddyer absolutely owns Danks (1.369 OPS in 45 ABs). Joe Mauer hits .349 career against Danks but doesn’t hit him especially hard (.419 SLG). A positive for Chicago is that Justin Morneau has always hit well against Danks (1.222 OPS in 31 ABs) but remains out while dealing with the effects of a concussion.

Chicago’s players have about half the ABs against Liriano as the Twins’ players against Danks, but a couple guys jump out: Paul Konerko and Alexei Ramirez. Paulie has a 1.141 OPS and 2 HRs in 17 ABs against Liriano while Alexei has a 1.088 OPS in 17 ABs. Carlos Quentin, Alex Rios, and Mark Teahen, however, have been neutralized by Liriano.

White Sox-Twins Tuesday Prediction: Both teams have a couple of guys with especially strong numbers against the opposing pitcher, and both pitchers have struggled in this matchup. I expect a close game in which relief pitchers will likely play a big role during the last three innings. With the White Sox getting Matt Thornton and J.J. Putz back to go along with Chris Sale, this isn’t as scary a proposition as it was as recently as a week ago.

White Sox win it 6-5.

White Sox-Twins Preview: Wednesday

• First Pitch: 7:10 CT
• TV: WCIU
• Pitching Matchup: Brian Duensing (8-2, 2.02 ERA) vs Gavin Floyd (10-12, 3.91 ERA)

This is the game that terrifies me and that should terrify all White Sox fans.

Gavin Floyd’s terrific mid-summer run, which is his track record, helped propel the White Sox back into the AL Central race (almost exactly as I predicted, by the way) when they looked all but dead early in the season. Unfortunately, Floyd’s track record suggests that he’ll be just an average pitcher over the season’s final month (career 6-9, 4.22 ERA in 22 September starts).

As if on cue, Floyd has three starts giving up 5 earned runs or more since the calendar turned to August. Most frightening for White Sox fans is that two of those starts came against Minnesota and the third was his most recent outing against Detroit.

That’s not encouraging.

Duensing, on the other hand, is a guy who has pitched well in August and September. In 21 careers starts during the season’s final two months, Duensing is 9-2. He has a 2.81 August ERA and a 2.56 September ERA (though his WHIP is 1.36 and BAA is .280).

Against the White Sox Duensing is 3-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 9 career appearances, some of them out of the pen. Floyd has a 4.93 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in his career against Minnesota and is just 4-7.

(Stop me when you find something that leads you to believe the White Sox will win this game. Seriously. I’m trying really hard to find something.)

At home, Floyd is slightly better than he is on the road while Duensing is decidedly better at home (1.97 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) than on the road (3.66 ERA, 1.33 WHIP). Unfortunately, Duensing’s road numbers are better than Floyd’s career home numbers.

Ugh.

From a hitters’ perspective, Alexei Ramirez and Carlos Quentin are the only White Sox players who will be looking forward to this matchup. Alexei is 5-12 lifetime against Duensing with a .962 OPS. CQ is 5-9 against Duensing with 2 HR and a 1.822 OPS.

So Quentin needs to make sure he doesn’t get hurt between now and Wednesday because the White Sox will need his power to have a chance.

For the Twins, an entire phalanx of hitters will be looking forward to facing Floyd. Denard Span, Jason Kubel, and Joe Mauer all have OPS’ above 1.000 in 24, 35, and 34 ABs, respectively.

White Sox-Twins Wednesday Prediction: During June and July, Gavin Floyd was basically automatic. Every time he started you just knew the White Sox would have a great chance to win. While he hasn’t been terrible in August and September, his two recent outings against Minnesota, and his history against the Twins, are not encouraging.

Brian Duensing is one of the really good young pitchers that not too many people know about. White Sox fans and other AL Central aficionados do, but that’s about it. As September progresses, and over the next few years, that will probably change…and frankly, that sucks. The last thing the White Sox need is another annoyingly solid starter to haunt us for the next few years.

Even me, the most optimistic of all White Sox fans, cannot find a reason to predict victory on Wednesday. I hope I’m wrong.

Twins win 5-2.

White Sox-Twins Preview: Thursday

• First Pitch: 7:10 CT
• TV: CSN / MLB Network
• Pitching Matchup: Carl Pavano (16-11, 3.47 ERA) vs Mark Buehrle (12-10, 3.99 ERA)

I love Danks, Floyd, and Jackson. All are above average pitchers who typically give the White Sox a chance to win. But if you asked me who I’d want on the bump if my life depended on a White Sox W, I’d choose Mark Buehrle every time.

I’ve written before about Buehrle’s status as the ace of the White Sox and how underrated he is. A major reason for this is that while Buehrle’s overall career numbers are not overwhelming, he has usually stepped up big against two of the three teams that have been the White Sox main consistent rivals during Buehrle’s tenure: Minnesota and Detroit.

• vs Minnesota: 25-17 in 46 starts, 3.98 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
• vs Detroit: 16-8 in 29 starts, 3.01 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

(Cleveland fans, shut up. I know the Indians have killed Buehrle – 12-15 lifetime record – but that means nothing for the purposes of this discussion.)

This year, Buehrle has been predictably strong against Minnesota. He is 2-1 in three starts with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He’s only struck out eight Twins in 23 innings, but he’s also only walked three. Vintage Buehrle.

So if you’re a White Sox, you feel good about the man on the hill for you on Thursday.

Unfortunately, Twins fans will feel pretty good with their own mustachioed mound maestro: Carl Pavano. The Big Apple Pariah has resurrected his career with an outstanding season in Minnesota. And unlike many Minnesota pitchers, Pavano is better on the road (3.13 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) than at home (3.90 ERA, 1.24 WHIP).

He has not, however, been quite as good against the White Sox this season. His overall numbers are 2-1 in three starts with a 4.50 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and a .315 BAA. In his defense though, Pavano does have a sterling 13:1 K:BB rate against Chicago, and 15 of the 28 hits he’s given up to the White Sox, along with 6 of the 11 earned runs, came in his last start against the Good Guys. His other two starts against Chicago were both very good.

So we really can’t know what to expect from the White Sox offense against Pavano Thursday night. He could shut us down or we could tattoo him again. Both have already happened this year.

And that’s where I like the White Sox chances. Buehrle’s worst start against Minnesota this year was his first, back in April: 8 innings, 4 ER. He went 8 IP, 3 ER his next time out, then 7 IP, 0 ER after that. The trend is going in the right direction, which is the opposite for Pavano.

The hitters to watch for the White Sox in this matchup, based on the history, are Paul Konerko (.963 OPS in 27 ABs), A.J. Pierzynski (1.045 OPS in 22 ABs), and Alex Rios (.924 OPS in 22 ABs). This may be a good day to rest Quentin though. He’s 0-10 lifetime against Pavano.

Minnesota’s hitters have much more established track records against Buehrle, who they’ve seen so often over the past decade. Denard Span has fared the best, with a 1.037 OPS in 31 ABs. Delmon Young has also done well, with a .942 OPS in 30 ABs. Conversely, Joe Mauer (.647 OPS in 46 ABs) and Jason Kubel (.624 OPS in 14 ABs) have not fared as well.

White Sox-Twins Thursday Prediction: If the first two games go as I predicted them, and the remaining games this weekend go as I predicted, the White Sox will need this win to move to 4.0 games back. That is a seemingly insurmountable advantage with so few days left on the regular season calendar, but it at least keeps the White Sox in it.

And I do think Mark Buehrle wins this matchup. He may even do it without any help from the bullpen. Buehrle knows when he needs to put the White Sox on his back, and he usually does it, especially against Minnesota.

Also, there are troubling signs for Pavano. He’s only struck out six hitters in his last 23 innings, although all three are quality starts (1-2 record). Plus, his last memory of facing the White Sox is getting hit around like a pinata.

A desperate White Sox team will come through a big victory on this night, and hopefully the momentum can carry the White Sox to a white hot finish to the season. They’ll need it to have a chance.

White Sox win 7-1.

White Sox-Twins: The Rest of September

Based on my predictions, the White Sox will be 4.0 games out heading into next Friday. A bounce here or there and obviously that number could swing in either direction by a game or two. We’ll see what happens.

But assuming 4.0 games is the deficit, will White Sox fans have any reasonable hope of a late season surge? Here are the remaining schedules for the two squads.

White Sox:

• vs DET (3)
• @ OAK (3)
• @ LAA (3)
• vs BOS (4)
• vs CLE (3)

Twins:

• vs OAK (3)
• vs CLE (3)
• @ DET (3)
• @ KC (3)
• vs TOR (4)

Not really much of an advantage either way. Both teams have 10 games at home and 6 on the road. Both play Oakland, Cleveland, and Detroit. Both get an AL East squad out of the race, and both go on the road to face teams that aren’t very good this year (KC and LAA).

Basically, the White Sox will need to catch fire and the Twins will need to collapse. Is it possible? Of course it is. Is it probable? Probably not.

But the joy of being a fan is knowing that as long as your team has a mathematical chance, something crazy could always happen. And we watch, and we hope, and we implore both our teams to rise to the occasion and the sports gods to smile down upon us with benevolence.

For the White Sox, being five games out with just 3+ weeks left is tantamount to hanging by a thread. But at least we’re hanging and have a reason to stay engaged during September. Now let’s just hope that we’re not hanging on in vain.

Last night’s comeback win over Kansas City was huge and certainly rekindled my excitement. And I like our chances at home against Minnesota next week. As Hawk would say, don’t stop now boys…

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* – AJ / JJ photo source: SBNation

* – Paulie/Buehrle photo source: RightWingHouse.com

* – Brian Duensing photo source: TwinkieTown.com

Well, Votto wasn’t the only player with Midwest ties who got bent over when the rosters were announced today. Paul Konerko and Alex Rios of the Chicago White Sox also have legitimate beef with Yankees manager Joe Girardi.

At least Konerko still has a shot to make the team; Rios, however, will see perhaps the greatest half season of his career go unrecognized. That’s BS.

First, take a look at the outstanding seasons being turned in by Konerko and Rios, the two players who have carried an otherwise underperforming White Sox offense.

• Konerko: .297/.386/.564, .950 OPS, 20 HR, 57 RBI, 45 R, 0 SB
• Rios: .307/.362/.516, .878 OPS, 13 HR, 45 RBI, 49 R, 22 SB, 5.3 UZR

Outstanding all around numbers for both, with Rios’ excellent defense in center being an underrated quality he’s brought to the White Sox this year.

Now, the question is which players Girardi selected should Konerko and Rios have made it over. I hate it when people say “So-and-so should be an All Star” but then don’t say who should be taken off the team.

In Konerko’s case, I say David Ortiz. Here are Big Papi’s numbers on the season:

• Ortiz: .263/.369/.566, .935 OPS, 17 HR, 54 RBI, 43 R, 0 SB

Update: An astute commenter point out that in my zeal to defend Paul Konerko from this terrible injustice I failed to realize that players vote for a portion of the reserves. David Ortiz was voted in by the players, so Joe Girardi did not screw him in this instance (more on this below). Still, it doesn’t change the fact that Konerko is more deserving of a spot in this year’s All Star game than Ortiz.

After a woeful start (.143, 1 HR in April) Ortiz caught fire in May (.363, 10 HR) before cooling off somewhat in June (.238, 6 HR). Ortiz also should be given credit for helping to keep the Red Sox afloat despite a rash of injuries.

However, Konerko leads Ortiz in every category but slugging percentage, with Ortiz holding a .002 advantage. Plus, as any White Sox fan knows, Konerko has not just been padding his stats with meaningless homeruns. Paulie has been hitting a lot of late-inning, game-deciding taters all year long…and I do mean all year long.

Unlike Ortiz, Konerko’s great numbers are not a product of one hot month. While he did struggle somewhat in May (.233, 3 HRs), Konerko was outstanding in both April (.297, 11 HRs) and June (.351, 6 HRs).

Just based on numbers alone, Konerko should be in over Ortiz. Add in the fact that Konerko has played very solid defense (just one error on the year) and has been more consistent, and there is simply no way Paulie should be on the outside looking in with Big Papi getting the nod.

You could actually make a pretty good case that Kevin Youkilis (.986 OPS, 16 HR, 53 RBI) should be in over Ortiz also. Things actually get pretty tight between Youkilis and Konerko, though I’d side with Konerko because of how clutch he has been this year. I’ll admit that I’m biased though; if you want to say Youkilis is more deserving, I won’t argue. It’s a toss up.

What is not a toss up, however, is that both are more deserving than Ortiz.

I guess Girardi thought he needed to bring a full-time DH. That is the only possible reason I can find for why Ortiz made the team.

Now let’s turn our attention to Alex Rios, who really got shafted. He deserves to be in the All Star game, yet he’s not even among the players up for the fan vote! That is outrageous.

Here are the numbers for Blue Jays OFs Vernon Wells and Jose Bautista, both of whom made the All Star team as reserves:

• Wells: .274/.328/.544, .872 OPS, 19 HR, 48 RBI, 45 R, 4 SB, -2.0 UZR
• Bautistia: .229/.356/.530, .887 OPS, 21 HR, 52 RBI, 50 BB, 3 SB, -1.7 UZR

And here are Rios’ numbers again for your convenience:

• Rios: .307/.362/.516, .878 OPS, 13 HR, 45 RBI, 49 R, 22 SB, 5.3 UZR

Wells and Bautista have the edge in power…but that’s it. Rios has killed them on the basepaths and is far superior as a defensive player. He also gets on base on more. I guess we are back in the mid-90s now and all that matters are HRs. Apparently Joe Girardi, like chicks, just digs the long ball.

What would have been so wrong with picking one of the two carbon copy Blue Jays OFs and balancing it with the much more well-rounded skill set of Rios? It certainly would have been the most sound baseball decision for Girardi.

In Girardi’s defense, perhaps his judgment is clouded after watching Rios underperform for so many years in the AL East. Still, that’s no excuse. This is 2010. Girardi should have picked Wells or Bautista and had Rios on the team.

Leaving Rios off the final vote, however, just compounds the error. And look at who Girardi left him off for: Delmon Young. Delmon Young!

Look, Young is quietly having a really nice season up in Minnesota this year. I know this because I have him on a few fantasy teams. I also know that it would take me all of about two seconds to say yes if someone offered me Alex Rios for him straight up.

Here are Young’s good ,but nowhere near great, numbers:

• Young: .295/.330/.484, .814 OPS, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 35 R, 3 SB, -2.3 UZR

Do I even need to explain why Rios is more deserving? I didn’t think so.

Finally, let’s look at one more way that Joe Girardi screwed Paulie and Rios: that time-honored tradition of All Star managers giving preferential treatment to their own players. Honestly, I really don’t have a problem with this, if it comes down to breaking a tie between two relatively even players.

However, just as with Charlie Manuel choosing Ryan Howard over Joey Votto, Joe Girardi adding Alex Rodriguez to the All Star team over Konerko, Youkilis, and even Michael Young, and Nick Swisher to the fan vote over Rios, is simply indefensible.

Here are the numbers for ARod and Swisher:

• ARod: .278/.351/.489, .840 OPS, 12 HR, 62 RBI, 43 R, 2 SB
• Swisher: .287/.370/.504, .873 OPS, 13 HR, 47 RBI, 49 R, 1 SB, -1.2 UZR

Konerko is better than ARod in everything but RBIs, and Girardi did not have to take ARod as a backup 3B because he has Adrian Beltre as a backup to starter Evan Longoria. Why not carry two backup 1B, considering the fact that Konerko is so clearly better? And if you want someone who can play third, then at least take Youkilis instead of ARod.

Oh wait, never mind, I forgot. Girardi needs to keep A Rod – the narcissistic delicate genius – happy and confident. I guess it just means screwing more deserving players in the process.

Whatever.

What really gets me steamed is the choice of Swisher. Rios is clearly having a better overall season and is virtually even with Swisher in terms of power. Yet, Girardi has effectively named Swisher to the All Star team because we know that the Yankee fan machine will vote Swisher in.

I know that none of this should really surprise me, and it doesn’t. Year after year there are deserving players not selected to the All Star team while managers play politics with the rosters. It is what it is.

I just wanted to write this post to let out my frustration, to make sure you know not to vote for Delmon Young or Nick Swisher, and to highlight yet another example of the White Sox getting screwed and being disrespected.

Paulie, Alex…you’re both All Stars in my book, and I assume in the book of most objective observers. Let’s just get to the World Series this year so that next year Ozzie can be the one screwing other teams over. The Yankees get to do that enough; they don’t need to do it with the All Star rosters too.

Update: As I mentioned above, a couple of commenters pointed out, correctly, that I am an idiot…and failed to mention that a portion of the reserves for both the AL and NL are chosen by the players. This is no defense for Charlie Manuel, who picked Ryan Howard over the clearly more deserving Joey Votto, but it does excuse Girardi from a portion of the vitriol I expressed in this post.

According to Bryan Hock of MLB.com, Girardi actually chosen seven All Star reserves, with five of them filling the requirement of one player per team. The two players he chose were ARod and CC Sabathia (who will not play and be replaced by Andy Pettitte).

The reasoning given for choosing ARod is that he is third in the AL in RBIs. Well, seeing as how Paul Konerko has eight more home runs and is slugging about .070 higher than ARod, I’m going to assume that his RBI total would be pretty close to 61 if he had table setters like ARod has in New York. Yes, it is important to be able to drive in runs, but RBI is a stat based so much on the lineup one is in that it is not a good one for comparing the relative strength of two players’ numbers.

The real reason Girardi chose ARod was because he’s his guy and he wants to keep him happy and he wants to thank him for helping Girardi win a World Series. And like I said, I’m fine with that…when it’s a tie-breaking situation. Paul Konerko and others in the AL are having much better seasons than ARod though and deserve to go this year.

So, in conclusion, I shouldn’t have jumped quite so hard on Girardi as I did, seeing as how he had less spots to play with than I’d implied, but the spirit of my feelings and argument remains.

Don’t stop…believing.

Hold on to that feeling.

These are the infamous words sung by Steve Perry in Journey’s classic “Don’t Stop Believing”, which just so happened to be the official song of the White Sox 2005 drive to the World Series title.

Clearly, the 2010 White Sox are listening.

Despite an awful start to the season that had even the GM saying that the team was “open for business”, the White Sox hung on (barely) until their annual June explosion (predicted here); and boy have they exploded.

Led by a sterling pitching performance from Mr. June himself Gavin Floyd, plus an 8th inning home run by Paul Konerko, the White Sox beat Atlanta again and in the process notched their 9th straight victory.

That brings the White Sox June record to 14-6 (37-34 overall) and has them within 2.5 games of 1st place Minnesota. That led to perhaps the greatest single tweet I’ve see all season, by White Sox beat writer for MLB.com Scott Merkin:

Minnesota takes on the Mets in NYC this weekend, and the White Sox host the Cubs. There’s a chance the White Sox could be in first Monday

I just love all aspects of this tweet, especially the implicit expectation that we will sweep the Cubs when they visit the South Side. I don’t want to get greedy, so I’ll be happy with two out of three, but we have won nine in a row…

Anyway, I’ve been listening to this on loop ever since Bobby got the final out of today’s game, so I’ll share:

This team still has a long way to go to conjure feelings of 2005, but I see no reason not to revel in what has been two absolutely fantastic weeks of baseball…especially after what we had to deal with for the season’s first two months.

This is the kind of team I expected to see coming into the season and it’s great to finally see it coming together.

Way to go Sox! Now let’s go bury the Cubs even further than they already are.

Unfortunately, that moment was the high point of the first two months of the 2010 baseball season.

The White Sox lost the next four games and have been fighting just to get their heads above water ever since. As things stand today, with the White Sox having completed their April and May slate of games, the South Siders are a pathetic 22-28, 8.0 games behind Minnesota in the AL Central.

Yet all hope is not lost for the 2010 season…at least not for me…at least not yet.

The White Sox undoubtedly need a monster June to position themselves to compete for a division title during the second half of the season, and there are plenty of legitimate statistical reasons to believe that such a month is possible.

Yes, somehow I see good things right around the corner for the Sox with one merciful flip of a calendar page that will happen after today. Let’s down them down.

1. The Schedule

The White Sox schedule was not awful over the first two months of the season, but it was difficult, with an opponents winning percentage of .512. April and May featured seven games against the Rays, five against the Twins, three against the Yankees, and eight against surprising Toronto. The Tigers, Rangers, and Angels were all also sprinkled in there as well.

Chicago also did not help matters by playing poorly against the easier teams on its schedule, most notably the damn Indians, who the Sox have given six of their 18 victories.

In June, however, the White Sox only see the “mighty” Indians three times and overall face a schedule with a current winning percentage of .469 (as of May 30th). Instead of the Rays, Yankees, and Blue Jays, the White Sox get the Cubs (6 times), Pirates (3), and Nationals (3). June also does include seemingly tougher sets with the Rangers, Braves, and Tigers, but overall it is much kinder.

All in all, just by schedule alone, one could reasonably expect the White Sox to play closer to .500 baseball during June. Sadly that would be an improvement, but hey, we’ll take any improvement we can get at this point.

2. The Speed

Much was made in the offseason of the White Sox getting faster and becoming less reliant on the long ball to score runs. This supposed return to the “small ball” principles of Ozzie’s first couple of years in Chicago did not seem to be paying dividends early in the season, but that started to turn around in May.

New leadoff hitter Juan Pierre, after a horrid start to the year in which he hit .193 in April and scored just 8 runs, rebounded in May to hit .286, steal 10 bases, and score 14 runs. While Pierre’s .339 OBP in May still left something to be desired, the improvement in production from the leadoff spot was imperative, as was the lineup’s ability to turn Pierre’s speed into runs.

Similarly, Alex Rios produced an across the board spike during May. The team’s clear MVP through the season’s first two months had a whopping 1.106 OPS during May while stealing 7 bases and scoring 22 runs.

It has been a long, long time since the White Sox enjoyed this much speed at the top of the order, and with the power of Paulie, CQ, and Andruw Jones so inconsistent, the ability to manufacture runs takes on increasing importance.

If the May turnaround at the top of the order continues into June, the much maligned White Sox offense should continue its improvement, led by the speedy Pierre and the speed/power combo of Rios that has him on pace for 33 HRs and 48 SBs.

3. The Splits

This is easily the most important of the three reasons, mainly because it is the most compelling and predictive of what we can expect from certain White Sox players in June based on their career averages.

Gavin Floyd

What led me to dig into this topic in the first place was wondering how far off Gavin Floyd’s current numbers were from where he usually sits at the end of May. I was considering dropping him in a fantasy league, but thought I should do a little more research first because he’s always seemed like a slow starter.

It’s a good thing I looked.

For his career, Floyd is 7-2 in 13 career June starts with a 3.12 ERA and a sizzling WHIP of 1.15. June is by far his best month of the season. Contrast that with his career April (8-8, 6.30 ERA) and May numbers (7-8, 5.47 ERA), and Floyd’s current 6.02 ERA and 1.54 WHIP don’t seem all that unusual.

If the rest of Floyd’s 2010 season go according to history, he should win 10-12 games and sport an ERA right around 4.00. But the White Sox need wins now to ensure that the team does not get broken up and that there is meaningful post-All Star break baseball on the South Side; that means June is do-or-die.

No White Sox player is as historically dominant in June as Gavin Floyd. He needs to keep that trend going.

Paul Konerko

Maybe I should have said that no White Sox pitcher is as historically dominant in June as Gavin Floyd, because ol’ Paulie usually rakes pretty well during the season’s third month as well.

Consider these June/career splits for Paul Konerko:

• BA: .296 / .277
• OPS: .911 / .845
• AB per HR: 14.8 / 18.4

Paul’s career averages are already very solid. During the month of June, they become very good to almost great.

We all know how streaky Konerko can be; heck, just look at his April/May splits this year (1.197 OPS in April, .712 in May). For the White Sox to experience the kind of June turnaround they need to become contenders, Paul Konerko’s June production must fall in line with his career norms. If so, he an Alex Rios could form one of the most underrated and productive 3-4 combos in the league and drive in a lot of runs together.

Mark Buehrle

Gavin Floyd isn’t the only pitcher and Paul Konerko isn’t the only White Sox veteran who loves the month of June. Mark Buehrle also seems to enjoy June more than any other month as well.

Consider the following:

• Mark Buehrle has started 50 June games during his career, tied with April for the fewest of any month; yet Buehrle has won 27 games in June, more than any other month,  and lost only 11 games, the fewest of any month.
• Buehrle’s 3.38 career June ERA is bested only by his 3.30 career ERA in May. His 1.18 June WHIP is better than any other month.
• Buehrle strikes out more batters per nine innings and walks fewer during June than in any other month.

While Buehrle’s splits are not anywhere near as extreme as Floyd’s, June has always been his best month. With a 4.38 ERA right now in 2010, Mark needs another strong June to rebound and get closer to his career ERA of 3.82.

AJ Pierzynski

Continuing with our batter-after-pitcher trend, AJ Pierzynski is another White Sox vet who loves June. He’ll need a productive one to get his current .211 batting average closer to last year’s surprising .300 clip, which came during what was one of his best seasons at the dish.

For his career, AJ is a .283 hitter but a .312 hitter in June. Both numbers presage improvement for AJ moving forward. Veteran baseball players usually revert to their career norms and AJ has proven to be much, much better than a .211 hitter.

The good news for the White Sox is that AJ doesn’t just slap more singles during June. He hits with more power as well. AJ’s career .424 slugging percentage improves to .481 in June. His on base percentage also improves, up to .350 from its norm of .324 as AJ has a slightly higher walk rate in June.

Freddy Garcia

How about another pitcher? Sure!

Freddy Garcia may have a tenuous grip on the 5th starter’s slot with Dan Hudson nipping at his heels in the minors, but the White Sox may want to delay any decisions until after June. Freddy has a career ERA of 4.12 and is sporting a 5.26 ERA so far this season, but history suggests that Freddy will pitch well in June, sputter for the next two months after that, and then pitch his best in September.

For his career, Garcia has a 3.79 ERA in June and a 1.23 WHIP with a record of 24-11. The White Sox would certainly welcome numbers even 80-85% of that from Garcia at the back end of the rotation.

The other months for Garcia are littered with 4+ ERAs and 1.3+ WHIPs, but he gets serious again in September, as White Sox fans know from 2005, and has a 26-11 record, 3.31 ERA, and and 1.17 WHIP in 51 career September starts (the most of any month).

If Garcia can pick it up in June, along with Floyd and Buehrle, his September prowess just may have some significance.

Alexei Ramirez and Others

Those five guys, all veterans with established track records, show clear historical preference for the month of June. Another guy who loves June, though whose experience is not quite as extensive, is Alexei Ramirez.

The Cuban Missile has a solid .316/.362/.505 June line and has hit 10 career June homers, the most of any month. Alexei also has solid July and August numbers, but June is clearly his preferred month, and usually the point at which he snaps out of his early season doldrums to become a productive member of the offense.

With a .254 average and only 4 HRs so far this season, Alexei could use another June turnaround, and there is no reason to think he won’t do it again.

There are also some other guys on the White Sox roster who have done well historically in June, though perhaps not as markedly as the guys mentioned above:

• John Danks‘ 3.09 ERA in June is his second best (3.03, April)
• Bobby Jenks‘ 2.31 ERA and 1.01 WHIP are his second best (1.21 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, August)
• June is Mark Teahen’s most productive month other than September.

Conclusion

What does all this mean? Not a whole hell of a lot in reality. It really just means that frustrated White Sox fans like me, KVB, and you (if you’re a White Sox fan, which I assume you are if you’re read this far) should wait at least one more month before burying the 2010 Pale Hose.

And I know what you’re probably thinking. So what if the White Sox have a great June? If all of these guys peak in June, how will they have enough in July, August, and September to keep up with Minnesota and Detroit anyway?

That’s a great point, to which I say simply: I don’t care.

The season’s last three months will be irrelevant if the White Sox do not have a huge June. If they can position themselves to compete by the beginning of July, anything is possible. If they stay 5-6 games under .500 come the All Star Break, you can start breaking out the shovels and eulogies for the 2010 White Sox.

The White Sox would need to go 17-10 in June to creep back over .500. If they can do this, they’ll be 39-38 heading into July, and you’d have to think somewhere in the neighborhood of 3-5 games out of first place. That isn’t a great position to be in, and the odds of winning the AL Central would still be against the White Sox, but it’d sure be a hell of a lot better than six games under and 8.0 back. At least the team would have a shot.

So the question is, can a team currently playing .440 baseball play .630 baseball for an entire month to get its head above water? The easy answer is probably not; the hopeful answer, however, is (you can put it on the board…) yes.  Luckily for those hoping, there is at least some statistical evidence, as laid out in this post, to suggest that it’s possible.

And wouldn’t you know it? I saved the most compelling piece of evidence for last.

If you total up the career June won/loss records of the White Sox current starting rotation, which has woefully underperformed expectations so far in 2010, you get 72-40. That is a .643 clip, which is better than the aforementioned .630 clip I cited as getting the White Sox over .500.

So before you think going 17-10 in June is improbable, remember that all the White Sox pitchers need to do is perform to their career norms, and if Paulie, AJ, and Alexei can produce at their usual June clips, the pitchers will get more run support, wins easier to come by, and the White Sox can start to make their move.

With that said, all we can do now is sit back, relax, and strap it down…and hope that June 2010 is as White Sox-friendly as past Junes have been. If so, the White Sox can make it a three team race again and have a fighting chance at their second AL Central crown in three years.

I still believe it can happen, and the numbers suggest that you should too…at least for one more month.

*********

* – Alex Rios photo credit: Jerry Lai/US Presswire via ESPN.com

* – Mark Buehrle / Paul Konerko photo credit: Jamie Squire/Getty Images via ESPN.com

* – Paul Konerko photo credit: Rumors and Rants

Well, last night Hawk took it to another level when Paul Konerko jacked three home runs in the White Sox series-opening victory over some random AA team that is in town for the weekend. During the second and third of Konerko jacks, the second being a grand salami, Hawk adds in a jubilant “Hell yeah!” to his normal home run call.

Unfortunately, MLB.com does not allow you to embed videos (or at least they don’t make it very easy or intuitive if they do) so I’ll just have to link you over there. But it’s worth it.

(Thanks to Jimmy Traina at Hot Clicks for linking to this since I had to miss the game last night.)

The White Sox only other sweep of the season came at the end of May when the Good Guys swept three on the road against the Kansas City Royals. And as KVB and I lament to eachother all of the time, the White Sox never seem to complete sweeps. It always seems like any time we take the first two or three games of a series there is a letdown in the final game. Either the regular lineup sleepwalks through the game, we get a terrible pitching performance, or Ozzie throws out one of his crazy lineups where Brian Anderson is hitting cleanup.

I’m exaggerating…but not by much.

Not yesterday though. Last night, the White Sox continued playing the solid brand of baseball that has propelled them to five straight wins and 12 wins in their last 17 games. Over that same time span, a fan base — and maybe even a team and an entire organization — has been reborn into one that expects, rather than hopes, to be playing baseball in October.

At least that’s how I feel. And hopefully the rest of the South Side is with me. (And if you’re not, I have a few words from Steve Perry I’d like to share with you. That’s right, I went there.)

Truthfully, what has transpired over the last couple of weeks has renewed my faith that the White Sox will ultimately come out on top in a very competitive AL Central. I have to admit that through the ups and downs of this season it has been hard to maintain that faith. Case in point: Ozzie saying that we are in trouble if we have to bring up Gordon Beckham…and then shortly thereafter Beckham gets brought up.

And yes, I realize that the majority of the recent success has come against the inferior National League (and then the even more inferior Indians), so I will grant you that the White Sox haven’t exactly been mowing down the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays; but, the Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers, and Reds are all at least decent teams (especially LA, with our without Manny) so I don’t think you can simply chalk up the White Sox success to playing subpar competition.

No, there are many reasons why the White Sox are winning and the majority of them have to do with the players themselves and the better brand of baseball they are playing.

Will they make the playoffs? I’m not going to make any proclamations and jinx them. (Full disclosure: in preparation for this post I researched Jim Fassel’s infamous playoff guarantee when he was coaching the Giants and had planned on altering it for purposes of my own guarantee here. Then I thought the better of it.) But what seemed like a rather ridiculous conversation a few weeks ago is starting to look more and more realistic.

So in honor of the White Sox 40th victory of the season, and because it is my lucky number (in honor of my favorite basketball player of all-time), here are 40 reasons, in no particular order, why the White Sox have a great shot to win the AL Central and make a return trip to the playoffs in 2009.

1 — Ozzie Guillen. The SI players poll may suggest that other players don’t want to play for him, but his own players do. And they have proven it every year outside of that awful and anomalous 2007. As long as Ozzie is the skipper, I’ll always believe in the White Sox. Paws up.

2 — We actually have a productive 1-2 punch at the top of the order! Most White Sox fans had forgotten what that feels like. 2005 hero Scotty Pods and Sexy Alexei have reminded us over the last 50 or so games. If Podsednik can come close to maintaining his .368 OBP, and if Alexei can continue to put his early season woes behind him (and improve upon his .398 SLG), the White Sox will have the run production and speed they need at the top of the lineup.

3 — We get THE Carlos Quentin back around the All Star Break. Remember him? Mr. Porcelain, but also the best player in the American League through the end of August last year? The White Sox offense has fortuitously been able to find its footing over the last month without him, but no one has forgotten how important Quentin is to the overall makeup of our team. Assuming Quentin can even be 80% of his normal self throughout the rest of the season, he will provide a huge presence that has been sorely lacking.

4 — Jose F*****g Contreras. I love this guy. He’s like a phoenix. Every time you think he’s finished he rises again to prove why he was such a hot commodity upon defecting here from Cuba. And there are few guys that I trust more in big spots than Contreras. He was AWFUL to start the year, but since heading down to the minors he has found his touch again and has given up only 9 runs over five starts that have covered a little over 37 innings.

5 — Mark Buehrle is Mark Buehrle. He’s not always pretty, and he’ll get knocked around every now and then, but the numbers are always there. This year he’s 7-2 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. He’s an ace. You have to have one to win division titles, and I’ll just say it: you’re wrong if you don’t think Mark Buehrle is an ace.

6 – Gavid Floyd has become the good Gavin again. Gavin’s season has followed an arc similar to Contreras’. He struggled mightily out of the gate, but look at his game log since May 22. Floyd has not gone less that six innings or given up more than three runs in any start. That’s eight quality starts in a row. Even more exciting is the fact that he hasn’t walked more than three batters in any of those starts either. This guy was the #4 overall pick in 2001 by the Phillies for a reason. We’ve seen why over the past 6 weeks.

7 – John Danks has become the good Danks again. Danks is another pitcher who had an up and down first 6 weeks of the season, but has turned it around. And he’s saved his best outings of the season for his two most important starts thus far: his two outings against the Cubs. Danks gave up one run over 14 innings against the Cubs. Yes, their offense sucks, but Danks has pitched four straight quality starts, going at least seven innings in all four, and the guy proved last year that he’s clutch.

8 – Is the quartet of Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, and Jose Contreras reminding anyone over the last month or so of another White Sox pitching staff of recent vintage? Eating innings, throwing quality starts almost every time out, and stepping up big in key spots…sounds a lot like the 2005 staff to me. Buehrle and Contreras are the holdovers, but Floyd and Danks have been every bit as good as Garland and Garcia. And remember, neither El Duque or Brandon McCarthy was that great in the fifth spot during the regular season that year. If the pitching continues on its current trend, and we know they are capable, this is a World Series-quality staff.

9 – Gordon Beckham is here and he’s every bit as good as advertised. Yeah, the kid struggled out of the gate, but look at his last seven games: 12-21 with a HR and 6 RBI. We all love Josh Fields and wish he had taken ahold of the hot corner when he had his chance, but Beckham is the future. And he is proving that he just may be the present as well.

10 – Did I mention Carlos Quentin is coming back at the All Star Break?

11 – Aaron Poreda is with the big club now and has not given up a run in his first five innings of work out of the bullpen. He has six Ks and only one BB and has given up only four hits. The Rays received a jolt from their phemon pitcher David Price last year. Could Poreda fill a similar role for the White Sox? He’s certainly had an auspicious beginning.

12 – Bobby Jenks is still one of the best closers in the game, and is as battle tested as anyone not named Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon. The big man has 18 saves on the season and has 28 Ks in 28 innings this year, a drastic improvement upon his sharply declining K rate from last year. He may not have the same gas he had back in 2005, but he is a much better pitcher now. And he’s already proven his stones on the biggest stage.

13 – Still, there are rumors that the White Sox might trade Bobby Jenks before the trade deadline. I do not want to this happen, nor do I think it will now that we’ve reemerged as a legitimate contender. Closers with Bobby’s stuff, talent, moxie, and proven experience do not grow on trees; and it’s rare to see a team get far in October without one. Regardless, on the off chance that we do trade Jenks, we’ve got a great bullpen filled with guys I would have confidence in to take over the role. (But Kenny…if you’re listening…don’t trade Bobby!)

14 – Matt Thornton has had a few rougher outings of late, but is still holding opponents to a .214 average and has struck out 39 batters in 31.2 innings.

15 – Octavio Dotel is walking way too many guys (21 in 30.2 innings) but has 39 strikeouts of his own through 30.2 innings and has successful closing experience in his past.

16 – D.J. Carrasco has come into his own as a very valuable asset in the bullpen. He’s logged 48.2 innings in 26 games and has an ERA under 3.00. He has given up seven runs over his last six outings though, so he needs to get himself back on track. But, as a former starter, he has the arm strength to be a bullpen savior on days when we need one.

17 – Scott Linebrink has not been great this year, but still has an ERA of 2.17 and averages more than a K per inning. He is not closer material — Thornton or Dotel would pick up that slack if Jenks is moved — but he remains a solid option as a setup man.

18 – Regardless of whether or not Kenny trades Bobby (don’t do it!!!), each of those four guys plus Poreda gives the White Sox an outstanding bullpen that I’d put up against any in the league. Still, I think Kenny will hang onto a proven closing commodity like Jenks, so each of the bullpen guys will get to stay in the roles they have been successful in and form one of the most unsung units in all of baseball.

19 – Ken Williams. He has to be listed as a reason why the White Sox can (and will!) make the playoffs. As White Sox fans we may not agree with all of his moves, but we have to give him this: he never stops being proactive to improve our chances. And I think his gameplan entering this season was brilliant. He put together a vet-laden team with a few new additions that, if everything fell right, had a good chance to make the playoffs. But he also has been restocking the farm system to the point where we can all feel pretty secure that when the Buehrle-Konerko-Dye era ends, the White Sox will be okay.

20 – Let’s get back to the offense, because its resurgence is one of the main reasons why the White Sox have started playing better baseball. And the most important cog in the White Sox offensive machine is still Jermaine Dye. As usual, Jermaine is quietly putting up solid numbers (.294, 18 HR, 48 RBI) and providing a steadying and consistent presence in the middle of the lineup. This guy was a World Series MVP in 2005 and was damn close to being the league MVP in 2006. He’s not quite the same player now — age will do that to you — but he is still good enough to be the second best hitter on a team that makes a deep playoff run.

21 – Carlos Quentin, of course, will hopefully resume his role as the best hitter on the team when he returns. And did I mention that he’s coming back around the All Star Break? My apologies if I didn’t. Quentin is coming back around the All Star Break.

22 – Paul Konerko, like Jermaine Dye, is having a solid season in the heart of the order (.290, 13 HR, 49 RBI). Like Dye, Konerko is not as ferocious as he once was, but is still good enough. And like Dye, Konerko has proven himself in clutch situations. I know that the combo of Dye and Konerko may not be all that sexy or exciting, but there is something to be said for battle-tested veterans who are team leaders and the essence of the term “professional hitters.” Paulie is still getting the job done both at the plate and in the field, as is JD.

23 – Chris Getz sometimes gets lost in the shuffle with all of the hullabaloo about Gordon Beckham, but Getz is providing something that our lineup has sorely lacked over the last couple of years: speed. He, Scotty Pods, and Alexei all have 11 or more stolen bases. Finally the White Sox have some people who can put a little pressure on other teams with the running game.

24 – AJ Pierzynski will never wow you with his stats, and he’ll do things that make you scratch your head sometimes (like his putrid ground out on the first pitch with the bases loaded at the end of one of our games last week), but he’s scrappy and he’s a winner. AJ comes through in the clutch more than often than not, and is underrated behind the plate (except for his arm, which can’t really be rated low enough). You need a good catcher to win, and the White Sox have one in AJ.

25 – The White Sox also seem to have found a backup catcher. Ramon Castro has blasted two home runs in 21 ABs since joining the team a couple weeks ago and is a guy who has always had monstrous power. Playing half of his games at The Cell with the weather warming up may be just the opportunity he needs to show that he can be a 25-30 HR guy someday. We’ll gladly take production anywhere close to that from our backup.

(BTW…all stats for the last six or seven of these have been taken from the White Sox hompage.)

26 – A couple of curses ended last year and we don’t have to worry about them anymore. The Jim Thome Curse and The Curse of the Douche Bag.

27 – Detroit has only three starters worth a crap (Verlander, E. Jackson, Porcello) and one of them is a 20-year old rookie (Porcello). Yes, Porcello has been very good this year, but how is his arm going to be holding up in September? He supposedly has a great makeup, but he’s never been through the pressure of a pennant race. If the Tigers cannot some more starting pitching, they are going to fall back even further to the pack.

28 – Curtis Granderson (.339 OBP, 18 HR, 13 SB) and Miguel Cabrera (.331 BA, 16 HR, 47 RBI) are really good, and Brandon Inge has certainly rebounded this year (18 HR, 52 RBI) from his subpar 2008, but what do the Tigers have after that? Magglio is on the sharp downside of his career and just is not supplying power anymore. Look at the other names that have chewed up the most ABs for Detroit this season: Placido Polanco, Gerald Laird, Adam Everett, Josh Anderson. Call me crazy, but I’ll take our offense for the rest of the season…especially once Quentin gets back.

29 – By the way, Quentin is coming back at The All Star Break.

30 – Minnesota is the Chicago’s other main competitor in the AL Central, and they have as many holes as Detroit. I do think that Minnesota’s pitching is better than what the numbers show (i.e. Baker’s 4.99 ERA and Slowey’s 4.41 ERA despite better peripherals) but this is a team that needed Francisco Liriano to be be an ace. Detroit has its ace in Justin Verlander and we have ours in Mark Buehrle. Who is it for the Twins? Baker and Slowey and very good #2-#3 starters, but the Twins do not have a guy who has proven he can take the ball and throw a gem in a big spot when the team needs it. Argue if you wish Twinkie fans, but that’s how I see it.

31 – Offensively, Minnesota has been surprisingly balanced this season. Look at the their team stats and tell me you aren’t surprised to see five guys with double-digit homers on the 2nd of July. In addition to the usual suspects (Mauer and Morneau), Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and (*sob*) Joe Crede all have 11 or more dingers. Add in the speed of Denard Span and Carlos Gomez and the Twins have a more dynamic offense than usual that has been able to somewhat compensate for its struggling pitching. However, this is still a team that goes how Mauer and Morneau go, and you may be surprised to learn that both hit below their career averages against the White Sox. In 331 career ABs against Chicago, Morneau (a .284 lifetime hitter) hits only .275. He has a career OPS of .858 that drops to .840 when playing against Chicago. (For the record, his HR rate is almost identical.) As for Mauer, Mr. .400 blah blah blah, he is a .324 career hitter with an OPS of .881. Against the White Sox that drops to .313 and .858. Are Mauer and Morneau terrible against Chicago? No. Have they come up big at certain points against the White Sox in the past? Yes. But they sure as hell didn’t against John Danks in last year’s one-game playoff, and anytime you make those two hit worse than normal you have a great chance to beat Minnesota.

32 – Detroit and Chicago are big-market teams that will make moves at the deadline to improve their chances this year. Minnesota does not have the same luxury. That knocks the Twins down at least a peg in comparison to the Tigers and White Sox.

33 – Take a look at a quick comparison between the aces of the White Sox and the Tigers. In 15 career starts against Chicago, Justin Verlander is 3-9 with a 5.44 ERA. In 27 career starts against Detroit, Mark Buehrle is 14-8 with a 2.99 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. And, for the record, Buehrle is 23-13 lifetime against the Twins. So Peter Gammons and all of the other baseball analysts can go into the bathroom with a moist towelette and a mental image of Verlander’s incredible “stuff”, but the fact of the matter is that he doesn’t get the job done against his division rival. The underrated Buehrle, of course, does. So, in review: Minnesota has no ace, the Tigers do but he sucks against Chicago, and the White Sox ace (who many people erroneously don’t consider to be an ace) dominates the two best teams in his division. HUGE advantage White Sox.

34 – The White Sox schedule in the second half of September sets up beautifully for a late charge to pull away from the pack. From September 21-27 the White Sox play the Twins and Tigers three times each, all of which are in Chicago. These six games are sandwiched between three at home against Kansas City and then three on the road at Cleveland to end the season. And there is actually a good chance Cleveland will have just called off the season by then, giving the White Sox a three-game sweep by forfeit.

35 – Since the White Sox have no more games against the Rangers, I most likely will not be able to see them play live for the rest of the regular season. This is good because I think the White Sox have a .200 winning percentage in games I’ve attended over the years. When KVB and I go together it’s even worse than that. (Be thankful that we never moved to Chicago and got season tickets.) If the Sox make the playoffs, however, and especially if they go deep, I may not be able to stay away. My apologies in advance.

36 – I know, I know…I’ve left someone out who deserves mention: Jim Thome. Now that the White Sox are back playing in AL parks, Thome has returned to the lineup. He is by no means the masher he was in Cleveland or Philly, but the guy is still a productive hitter (.402 OBP, 13 HR, 42 RBI) and a tremendous leader in the clubhouse. It took me a while, but I’ve fully embraced him as a true Good Guy and he is another one of our battle-tested veterans who heats up with the weather.

37 – Time to address the elephant in the room: defense. This is the White Sox biggest weakness. Currently, there are only five teams in baseball with more fielding errors than the White Sox. And no one has had worse defense at the hot corner than Chicago (17 errors, .922 fielding percentage). With Joe Crede gone and the combo of Josh Fields-Gordon Beckham over there, that is to be expected. But on the bright side, this has no place to go but up. And considering that Gordon Beckham has only been playing third base for about a month, his struggles were anticipated. Most seem to think that he is a good enough athlete to become very good defensively at third. As the season goes along, I think we’ll see his production in the field improve.

38 – Another area on defense where the White Sox have struggled is at shortstop, where Alexei Ramirez recently drew the ire of Ozzie Guillen for lackluster and unfocused play. I definitely see this improving. Alexei has all of the tools to be not just a good shortstop, but a great one. And there is no way Ozzie will allow that position to be a consistent weakness.

39 – Getting back to pitching because I forgot someone: Clayton Richard. On the season he is 3-1 with a 4.48 ERA in 22 games (10 starts). Immediately after stepping into the rotation when Bartolo Colon went on the DL, Clayton strung together three straight excellent starts. I then picked him up on my fantasy team and he hasn’t thrown a quality start since. White Sox fans will be happy to know that I’ve dropped him again, which means that he will likely turn things back around. All kidding aside, Richard is nothing more than a 5th starter right now, but he is adequate. And when Colon comes back to the rotation (if he even does), he gives the White Sox a veteran presence who is still capable of putting up halfway decent numbers. The point is that while the White Sox don’t have a world beater in the 5th slot of the rotation, the guys they are throwing out there aren’t horrible. And with the offense picking things up, we can win with Richard or Colon on the bump. And who knows, maybe Poreda steps in there at some point and provides Porcello-like production. Either way, this slot will not keep up from winning the Central.

40 – And finally, reason #40 why the White Sox can, should, and I think will win the AL Central: the return of Carlos Quentin. Am I putting a lot on his shoulders? Yes. Is there a chance he comes back and gets injured again? Yes. But is his presence in the lineup necessary for this team long-term in 2009? I believe it absolutely is. The White Sox are proving they can without TCQ, but when you get one of the best players in the AL back after an extended absence it cannot be anything but a boon to your chances. And Carlos will have the entire second half of the season to get his timing back. Perhaps this year will be a reverse of last year in that Quentin will save his best for September in 2009. We missed him in September last year, but still found a way to claw our way to a playoff berth. With Quentin in September this year, I think the White Sox have a good chance of heading into the playoffs with momentum and their best all-around player hitting on all cylinders.

Say what you will about the 40 reasons listed above, but one thing is certain: those who stuck a fork in the White Sox a few weeks back did so prematurely. For some reason, people always seem to underestimate the managerial and leadership ability of Ozzie Guillen and the heart, character, and talent in the White Sox clubhouse. The good thing is that the only people who matter (Kenny, Ozzie, and the team) never doubted. Over the last three weeks we have seen why, and White Sox fans have every reason to believe that a return trip to the playoffs is not only possible but, at least in my opinion, very probable.

So sit back, relax, and strap it down, and let’s all enjoy what should be a great three-team race for the 2009 AL Central crown…one that will be made all the more exciting when the White Sox end up repeating as champions.

* – Scott Podsednik photo credit: MouthPieceSports.com