College Football Week 1 Locks

If you decide to go with my picks I have a few rules, and both are equally important:

• Rule #1 Don’t bet what you don’t have. You don’t want to spend grocery money on my picks no matter how hot I get. 
• Rule #2 No matter how much you like a game, bet the same amount on the all games I give you. Freaky things happen in college football.

This is the time of the year when you make your money. Vegas is not sure how certain teams are going to perform, how new players are going to react to certain situations, and who will be the new stars emerge across the country.

And for the record, I only play the big games, the games you will see on TV (which you can find out at the MSF college football TV schedule).  Thus, I will not be giving picks on North Texas vs. some other cream puff.

We have a theme this week, so let’s begin.

Game #1 I love; actually, I love all four of the gems I’m going to give you, but I like this game the most.

Follow the link or click the image below to get great deals on college football tickets at StubHub.

Boise St vs. Oregon

• Boise State-Oregon Point Spread: Boise State -3.5
• Boise State -Oregon Over-Under: 64

The oddsmakers have Boise State favored in this game by 3.5 with the over-under at a whopping 64. I don’t believe either team will have many stops in this game and I expect the over to be in full effect. With that being said, Boise State is at home, it’s the first BIG game of the NCAA year, and oh by the way it’s on a Thursday night.

Folks, for starters, Boise State does not lose many home games, I can probably count on one hand how many losses they have had at home over the past five years. Boise State also has the experience, with 90% of their players having started a game last year. Oregon can’t match that experience, which is HUGE in the beginning of the season.

What does this game mean for Boise State? Well, if they win tomorrow night you might as well pencil them in to BCS Bowl, and maybe even a national championship. For Oregon, this game means a lot, but nowhere near what it means to the Broncos. Oregon did not have this game circled on their schedule as they had Cal, Oregon State, and USC.

Go with the Boise State and give the points.

Georgia at Oklahoma State

• Georgia-Oklahoma State Point Spread: Oklahoma State -5

Game #2 is Georgia at Oklahoma State. Will Georgia be able to stop the high powered offense of the Cowboys? Oklahoma State has some key players like Zac Robinson and Dez Bryant, who just so happens to be my projected #1 wide receiver in the country.

Georgia, on the other hand, has some players, but when the game is close who are they going to turn to? No Matthew Stafford, and no Knowshon Moreno.

Like the previous game, this game means a lot to Oklahoma State. This will be on Saturday night, on ABC, and the country will be watching. Oklahoma State has added seats for this year, so this will be the largest amount of fans to attend an Oklahoma State football game.

Georgia, well they need to worry about the SEC, so this game again means a lot but nowhere near what it means to the Cowboys. Oh and by the way, when was the last time Georgia traveled outside of their time zone?

Give the 5 and count your cash.

Missouri at Illinois

• Illinois-Missouri point spread: Illinois -7

Game #3 has Illinois giving 7 to Mizzou. I will keep this one quick, short, and to the point.

Mizzou lost everyone, Illinois has not. Gone for the Tigers are Chase Daniels, Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman. Mizzou had a great run, but they don’t reload like the top teams in the country do.

Illinois, on the other hand, returns quarterback Juice Williams. He had a great year last year, but still flew under the radar. He will be throwing the rock all day to up-and-coming stud Arrelious Benn. This is a home game for the fighting Illini and they have returning starters.

Give the points as Mizzou can’t stay up with the Illini like Ron Zook can stay up on his skis.

Virginia Tech vs Alabama

• Alabama-Virginia Tech point spread: Alabama -6.5

Game #4 is Virginia Tech vs. Alabama. The line in this game is 6.5. When I first saw this I almost jumped out of my chair. My first thought was there wasn’t going to be 6.5 points scored the whole game, not that I am advocating the under over in this game, but it just seems like a lot to give Virginia Tech, team with more firepower than the Crimson Tide.

Alabama over it’s past two games has been destroyed, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Nick Saban is sweating tonight thinking about the game on Saturday. I like Tyrod Taylor, and I think he is a playmaker, something Alabama doesn’t have many of on the offensive side of the ball.

Take the Hookies and take the points.

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Keep your eye out for Rich’s next column here at MSF, and you can also follow his blog at http://www.nflandcollegefootball.com/.

* – Ron Zook skiing photo credit: Deadspin

It’s Time for Bedlam: Oklahoma-Oklahoma State Preview and Prediction

The next “Game of the Year” in the Big 12 is upon us, as Bob Stoops and the Oklahoma Sooners travel toStillwater to take on the 40-year old man (Mike Gundy) and the Oklahoma State Mothers…of Children in the latest installment of the Bedlam Series.

I know, I know — Mike Gundy is now 41 and his press conference rant is over a year old. Still, it does not make it any less funny. In fact, let’s take a quick trip down memory lane before we jump into the preview. But rather than listen to Mike Gundy rant about some “garbage” newspaper story, let’s watch him provide a weather report in the heart of a nasty storm.

And now, onto the serious stuff.

Here are the particulars for today’s Bedlam Series game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State:

Matchup: #3 Oklahoma Sooners (10-1) at #12 Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-2)

Where: Stillwater, Oklahoma

Time: 8:00 ET

TV: ABC

Announcer Pairing: Brent Musberger, Kirk Herbstreit, Lisa Salters

Point Spread: Oklahoma -7 ½

Over-Under: 72

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What’s at stake: This game will help determine who goes to the Big 12 Championship Game from the Big 12 South division.

Texas took care of Texas A&M on Thursday night, as expected. This means that if the favorites hold serve, with Oklahoma beating OSU and Texas Tech beating Baylor, then there will be a three-way tie in the Big 12 South. By tiebreaker rule, whichever team is tanked higher in the BCS Standings would then go on to play Missouri in the Big 12 Championship Game. This scenario is the only possible way that Oklahoma could play in the Big 12 Championship.

If Oklahoma loses today and Texas Tech beats Baylor, then Texas Tech will play in the Big 12 Championship based on its victory over Texas. If Texas Tech loses to Baylor and Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, Texas goes to the Big 12 Championship game because the Longhorns beat Oklahoma earlier this year.

So there’s just a little bit at stake tonight in Stillwater.

Let’s take a quick look at what some of the “experts” are predicting:

Dennis Dodd, Senior Writer at CBS Sportsline: Oklahoma State 31 | Oklahoma 23

“I had this vision Saturday night of Mike Gundy sitting on a trunk somewhere drawing up ball plays as he watched OU on TV out of the corner of his eye. People are just assuming that Oklahoma is going to cruise past the Cowboys. The reason it won’t is Kendall Hunter. Gundy will use its All-America-worthy back to control the clock. OSU’s defense is underrated. The fans will be out for blood.”

For the record, the other four prognosticators at CBS Sportsline all picked Oklahoma to win.

John Tamanaha, Official Prognosticator at NBCSports.com: Oklahoma 48 | Oklahoma State 31

“With Mike Gundy calling the shots, Zac Robinson hooking up with Dez Bryant, and Kendall Hunter running the rock, Oklahoma State is more than capable of getting into a shootout with Oklahoma, especially at home in Stillwater. But the Cowboys won’t be able to come up with enough stops to stay within striking distance in the fourth quarter.”

Stewart Mandel, College Football Oracle at SI.com: Oklahoma 48 | Oklahoma State 24

“Theoretically, the Sooners are walking into a “hostile” atmosphere — except there will be 15,000 empty seats due to OSU’s inane policy requiring fans to buy season tickets in order to attend this one.”

And, for the record, 83% of the fans who had voted by 10:15 ET this morning had picked Oklahoma.
Sounds reasonable to me.

Here is why I think Oklahoma will win:

1 – Karma is a bitch

Oklahoma State instituted an insane policy this year that no single-game tickets would be sold for the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State game, instead forcing people to buy season tickets. Now, it is estimated that there will be 10,000-15,000 empty seats – for one of the biggest games of the season! Mike Gundy wants to talk about something being garbage? That’s garbage. No way the cosmic forces of college football allow Oklahoma State to win under such circumstances.

2 – Bob Stoops is better than Mike Gundy

It’s that simple. Look no further that the two team’s respective performances against Texas Tech. Graham Harrell made Oklahoma State look foolish, and Mike Gundy may as well have let T. Boone Pickens call the offensive plays. We all know what Stoops and the Sooners did to Texas Tech. Mike Gundy may be a man, but Bob Stoops is the man in the Big 12.

3 – The BCS is a bitch

If Oklahoma wins and Texas Tech wins, as explained earlier, all hell breaks loose. As any college football fan knows, the evil and diabolical BCS demon is not happy unless it has created as much carnage and controversy as possible. Texas Tech and Oklahoma will both win today, forcing the three-way tie in the Big 12 South that will be determined by politics and BS. And nothing says BCS better than politics and BS.

My prediction: Oklahoma 49 | Oklahoma State 31

And now, if you are a betting man, I’d run out an bet every last dollar on Oklahoma State pulling off the upset. I’m as accurate with my predictions as Lee Corso is sane. Just remember that I picked Texas Tech over Oklahoma as you click away from his prediction as fast as humanly possible.