Breaking Update: It was reported late last night that Beanie Wells has decided to skip his senior season at Ohio State and turn pro. Good decision Beanie.

Chris “Beanie” Wells is, without question, one of the best players in college football and easily one of the most complete running backs in America. It has seemed to be a foregone conclusion that Wells would forego his senior senior season and enter the NFL draft after this year.

Beanie Wells, however, says that is not necessarily the case.

As reported by Doug Lesmerises in the Plain-Dealer, Beanie Wells has regrets that could keep him going pro and compel him to stay in Columbus. From the Lesmerises story:

“It’s not really big enough for my satisfaction yet,” Wells said of his Ohio State legacy, speaking Thursday at length about his unmade NFL decision.

“I have so many more things I would like to accomplish. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen.

“I feel like I wanted to be the best running back to ever come through Ohio State, and I said before I feel like I haven’t done that.

“I personally feel like I haven’t done enough at Ohio State to move on to the next level.”

Despite Wells’ statement to the contrary, however, I think the safe money is on Wells leaving Ohio State to go pro. A few reasons why are even cited in the Plain-Dealer article:

1. Jim Tressel has already said that he thinks Beanie Wells should go pro.
2. Wells has 11 brothers and sisters, and helping to support his family is a pressing need.
3. Injuries, injuries, injuries.

This last was one, for me anyway, is the biggest reason why Wells will be going pro after this season. In the article, Wells says that he wants Ohio State fans to know that they have never seen him at his best because of injuries. I think injuries, or more specifically the fear of a big injury, is why Ohio State fans will have to watch Beanie Wells in the NFL next year.

For running backs, if you are going to be a 1st round draft pick, how do you not go pro? All staying in college would do is add another season of wear and tear to the short lifespan of a running back. Most NFL running backs experience a sharp decline after age 30. Beanie Wells needs to get into the NFL as quickly as he can and get an extra year before that 30-year old running back finish line. Plus, Beanie Wells is already developing a reputation for being injury prone. If he has another season slowed by injuries next year, it will only hurt his draft stock.

And what more could Wells do to show off his talents to the NFL? All he can do is provide more questions about himself. He needs to make the best decision for his professional future, which is going pro ASAP.

However, I think the Cleveland Browns organization should hope that Beanie Wells stays in school. Otherwise, the Browns will have to deal with the pressure of choosing Beanie Wells high in the draft; and the potential backlash for not doing so.

The Cleveland Browns will have a top 5 draft pick in this year’s NFL draft. I have already seen several mock drafts that have the Browns picking Beanie Wells. I have also had a few friends who are Browns fans ask me, “So, who do the Browns take? Wells or Laurinitis?” As if there are no other options.

With the way the Browns basically pissed all over their tremendous fan support in 2008 by going 1-7 at home and falling waaaay short of preseason expectations, I am sure that Randy Lerner and anyone associated with the Browns would love to find a way to build goodwill with the fans in the offseason. Choosing one of the hometown favorites like Beanie Wells would certainly do that. And the Browns need a running back with Jamal Lewis getting up there in age and losing a step or two or ten.

So then Beanie Wells should be the perfect choice for the Browns if he goes pro right?

Should the Browns take Beanie Wells if he is available when they pick in the 2009 draft?

• Yes
• No
• Yes, but only if they can trade out of the top-10 and still get him.

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I say no. History in the NFL has shown that you don’t choose running backs in the top 5 or top 10 unless they are just transcendent talents like Adrian Peterson or Barry Sanders or LaDainian Tomlinson. Just look at this year. Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, and Kevin Smith were all very productive runners. None was a top pick. How often have we seen late round or even undrafted runners became stars? It happens a lot.

However, a lot of running backs picked him in the draft have fizzled. One reason is that guys are often drafted based on their college production. But more production in college can also mean more wear and tear, especially for a bruising-style runner like Beanie Wells. Or, the production can be more a function of the team around a player. I am not saying that Beanie Wells is not tremendously talented — he is — but he also has a great offensive line, a good offensive scheme, and Ohio State plays in the Big Ten.

You could argue that Ohio State only played two bona fide top 25 teams this season: USC and Penn State. Chris Wells did not play against USC, and was pretty ineffective against Penn State, running 22 times for 55 yards. I realize that Wells had good games last season against Michigan and some of Ohio State’s other good opponents; but Wells is right when he says he has unfinished business, especially against the better teams on Ohio State’s schedule.

If I am a Browns fan, this concerns me. It actually reminds me of another running back from a big-time college program who ended up being a top-5 NFL pick: Cedric Benson

Let me say right off that I think Beanie Wells is better than Cedric Benson, and I think Wells be better in the NFL than Benson, and without all of the off-the-field crap Benson has brought to the table. But Cedric Benson was a guy during his college career that played much better against the lesser schools on Texas’ schedule than against the top teams the Longhorns played. This is one of the reason why Benson slid on many draft boards (though obviously not the Bears): he fattened up on the cupcakes, but did not have the skill or competitiveness to bring it when Texas needed it most. Luckily for Benson he played with a transcendent college QB in Vince Young who brought it every weekend.

I think Chris Wells has actually played better than Cedric Benson did against the best teams on the schedule, but there has been some inconsistency. And if you say the inconsistency is due to injury, that is even worse. No NFL team wants to draft a running back high who cannot stay healthy in college, where the players are slower and the hits are less severe. Additionally, Beanie Wells is a tough runner but lacks top-end speed. He can run away from some college defenses, but will not be able to do the same against NFL defenses. Running backs who are going to be drafted in the top-5 need to threaten a defense as an inside runner and as a home run threat. This is not who Beanie Wells is. He is certainly worthy of a first round pick, and I think could have many productive years and be a guy like Michael Turner circa 2008, but the Browns have way too many holes to be rolling the dice on a running back that high in the draft.

So for the Cleveland Browns, the best outcome might be Beanie Wells just staying in school. Despite Wells’ recent statements, this is pretty unlikely however. What is more likely is that Wells will come out and the Browns will have to deal with the pressure of needing a running back and having the hometown favorite available to them. Obviously if the Browns pass on Wells and he turns into the next Earl Campbell, Browns fans will never forgive the team for passing on Wells.

If the Browns are smart, however, they will use history as their guide and wait until rounds 2-3 to pick a running back. With a slew of good defensive lineman and linebackers likely to be available to the Browns, and harder to get later in the draft, this is a more valuable direction for the Browns to go in than running back. And hey, if they really want to appease the Buckeye faithful, they can always take James Laurinitis.

But let another NFL team choose Beanie Wells. His Ohio State fans can continue to watch him and root for him, just in a city other than Cleveland.

Update: Immediately after this item, I noticed that our friends over at Waiting For Next Year posted a similar article regarding the recent comments by Beanie Wells about his NFL future. It’s a good read and they have a great blog, so check out their story.)