Interestingly enough though, finding teams for this week’s stock watch was tough because so many teams appear to be locked into win-one, lose-one mode.

Bottoms Line: Stock Up

Davidson

After beating Chattanooga on Thursday, the Wildcats improved to 9-0 in the SoCon, and they are starting to at least generate some at-large buzz.  They are 15-4 overall with a win over Kansas in Kansas City, and losses to Duke and Vanderbilt certainly won’t kill them.  Even losing at UMass isn’t terrible, but they also lost at Charlotte who is outside of the RPI Top 100.  In the meantime, Davidson is just inside the Top 50, although future league games won’t help their strength of schedule.

The Wildcats have five players scoring at least 9.1 points per game, led by De’Mon Brooks (14.9 ppg, 6.3 rpg) and Jake Cohen (14.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg), both of whom play less than 25 minutes per contest.

While they are sure to be favored in all of their remaining conference games, they are also slated to play at home as part of the BracketBusters.  Depending on the opponent, it could give them another shot at a profile-enhancing win.

Drexel

After getting off to a painfully slow start where they lost four of their first six games, the Dragons have now won 14 of their last 15 and are within a game of George Mason for the CAA lead.  As was the case last season, Drexel is solid defensively and ranks 26th in adjusted defensive efficiency.  They shut down the three-point line and clean the defensive glass as well as anyone, but they actually rank first in the league in offensive efficiency during conference play.

Bruiser Flint has three players scoring at least 11.8 points per game, including Frantz Massenat (12.2 ppg, 4.1 apg, 3.4 rpg) who hits 47.4 percent from deep and Samme Givens (11.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 53.1 FG%) who is a terrific rebounder at 6-foot-5.

The schedule lays out relatively well for the Dragons, as the season finale against Old Dominion is their only game left against the top teams in the league.

Notre Dame

Even without Tim Abromaitis, the Irish have managed to get off to a 5-3 start in Big East play with road wins at Louisville and Seton Hall and last weekend’s home upset of Syracuse.  Given a few of their losses, Notre Dame is definitely fighting an uphill battle for at-large consideration, but they are working their way into the conversation.

The Irish are essentially using a six-man rotation, and they are getting solid play from Jack Cooley, Eric Atkins, and Jerian Grant.  Cooley has 39 points and 30 rebounds over the last three games, including two double-doubles.  Atkins’ scoring has been inconsistent, but he’s hitting over 40 percent from beyond the arc and has a solid assist rate.  Grant’s assist rate is even better, and he’s averaging 13.3 points over the last 10 games.  All three have strong free throw rates as well, with each hitting at least 71.8 percent from the line.

Notre Dame has three tough games up next with road trips to Connecticut and West Virginia and a home date with Marquette.

Oregon

If you can make heads or tails of the Pac-12, you are definitely smarter than me.  However, I do know that the Ducks have played well of late, winning five of their last six games including victories over Stanford and Arizona.

The mid-December addition of Devoe Joseph has been key, as the Minnesota transfer is leading the team with 14.6 points per game and hitting 43.2 percent from deep.  Oregon is also getting solid play from E.J. Singler, and they seem to have rebounded from the surprising departure of freshman Jabari Brown.

If you look at Oregon’s profile, they don’t have a horrible loss, which this year is a rarity.  The issue is that they don’t have a ton of marquee wins either, and the conference provides more chances for bad losses than signature wins.  That means they need to keep winning at home against Oregon State on Sunday followed by a road trip to Utah and Colorado.

Wisconsin

Despite a 1-3 start in Big Ten play, it’s no surprise the Badgers have bounced back to win five straight, including a pair of road wins against Purdue and Illinois.  While their offense seems improved, they still rank in the middle of the pack for efficiency in conference play.  However, their defense still ranks among the best and can keep them close in virtually every game.  In fact, they have held all but three opponents to 1.00 points per possession or less.

Jordan Taylor has continued to struggle with his shot, and a number of other players have stepped up periodically.  That said, they need one or two other guys to become more consistent contributors from game to game.

Starting with Tuesday’s trip to Penn State, the Badgers play five of their next seven away from home, so it will be interesting to see if they can sustain their level of play during that stretch.

Bottoms Line: Stock Down

Iona

At one point, I considered the Gaels to be an at-large contender, but following losses to Hofstra, Manhattan (albeit on a crazy last-second shot), and Siena, that is no longer the case.  They are currently just outside of the RPI Top 50 but they also have no Top 50 wins with their best victories both coming in overtime against Saint Joseph’s and Denver.

Iona boasts an elite-level point guard in Scott Machado (13.1 ppg, 10.2 apg, 5.1 rpg) and a terrific big man in Michael Glover (19.1 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 67.0 FG%), so talent isn’t an issue.  That said, there was some concern about how well Arizona transfer Momo Jones would fit into the mix.  And while he is averaging 15.3 points, his long-range shooting hasn’t been great, and it’s likely no coincidence that he attempted 20 shots in two of their five losses.  Even so, the offense has strong efficiency numbers, but there is room for improvement on the defensive end.  Outside of limiting opponents to a low free throw rate, the Gaels rank outside of the Top 100 in the other three key factors on KenPom.

A BracketBusters matchups could give them another shot at a strong victory depending on who they play, but more than likely they will need to win the MAAC Tournament to go dancing.

Marshall

After beating Central Florida at home, the Herd stood at 4-0 in Conference USA, but they have since dropped three straight games.  Losses to West Virginia and Southern Miss are forgivable, but the same can’t be said about Wednesday’s home loss to UAB.

Marshall ranks in the top five nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, but their shooting, particularly from three-point range and the foul line, has been really poor.  Guards DeAndre Kane and Damier Pitts are both scoring in double figures, but neither guy makes over 42.9 percent from the field or better than 33.1 percent from deep.

Wins over Cincinnati, Iona, and Belmont definitely help their at-large case, but they need to perform well in remaining games against Memphis (who they play twice), Central Florida, and Southern Miss.  The Herd also needs to avoid losing to any of the lesser teams left on their schedule.

Northwestern

A home win over Michigan State had people thinking maybe this would be the year for the Wildcats.  They have since followed that up with two losses by a combined 43 points, so their status is once again tenuous at best.

Northwestern takes more than 42 percent of their shots from beyond the arc, and since they don’t get to the line much and don’t grab many offensive rebounds, they really can’t survive off shooting nights.  So since they hit just 13-of-40 (32.5%) of their three-pointers in the last two games, it’s not necessarily surprising that they got crushed.  The Wildcats aren’t strong defensively either, so their ability to succeed during times when they struggle offensively is limited.

Northwestern plays three of their next four games at home, so they can ill afford to perform poorly over that stretch before the schedule gets a bit tougher down the stretch.

Purdue

The Boilers have now dropped four of their last six games, and they are slowly sliding toward the bubble.  The team ranks eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency in Big Ten games, which is a departure from the ability they have shown on that end of the floor in recent years.  They have struggled to defend the three-point line but have also allowed opponents to shoot over 50 percent on two-pointers.

Offensively they have an extremely low turnover rate, but their shooting from the field and at the line ranks in the lower half of the league.  The Purdue offense is extremely reliant on Robbie Hummel and a banged up Lewis Jackson, neither of whom has been practicing fully.

The schedule doesn’t do them any favors with their next six contests featuring two games against Northwestern, home dates with Indiana and Michigan State, and road trips to Ohio State and Illinois.

Xavier

After starting out 4-1 in the Atlantic 10, it felt like the Musketeers were finally back on track, but following losses to Dayton and Saint Louis, some of the question marks about the team have resurfaced.  When looking at per possession stats, it’s very easy to tie Xavier’s success to their defensive effort.  In the eight games where they have allowed at least 1.02 points per possession, the Musketeers are 1-7.  In virtually every case, Xavier has allowed a lot of open looks and/or put their opponents on the line a lot.

Offensively, they have played a bit better of late, but they have to get more out of Kenny Frease.  The senior big man has just nine points over the last two games and has some pretty ugly efficiency numbers for the season.  Even if it’s not Frease, someone needs to assert themselves as a consistent contributor outside of Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons.

The Musketeers have three straight road games starting on Saturday, and they have games remaining against Temple, Dayton, and St. Louis as well.  They aren’t quite on the bubble yet, but a few more losses could change that in a hurry.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

Things are only going to get better as conference play heats up, but for now, here are the latest risers and fallers in the college basketball world, starting with someone hoops fans in the Hoosier state will be very familiar with.

The Bottoms Line: Stock Up

Georgia State

After losing their first three games of the season to Washington, Portland, and Florida Atlantic, the Panthers and first-year coach Ron Hunter have reeled off 11 straight wins. The first nine of those wins are pretty easy to dismiss given the competition (all 238th or lower in the Pomeroy Ratings), but Wednesday night’s victory at VCU was impressive.  They also beat Drexel in CAA play and are currently 3-0 in the league heading into a road trip to George Mason this weekend.

Hunter, the former IUPUI head man, has his team playing terrific defense and taking good care of the basketball.  The offense hasn’t been particularly efficient, but they do have three double-digit scorers and nine players averaging at least 10 minutes and 4.0 points.  Whether they can win the Colonial remains to be seen, but they have been one of the bigger surprises so far this season.

Image credit: Hyosub Shin via AJC.com

Michigan State

It’s not a stretch to say the Spartans are playing the best basketball in the Big Ten right now.  They have won 14 straight and sit atop the conference at 3-0 with wins over Indiana and Wisconsin.  After struggling mightily on offense during their first few games, Michigan State has really turned things around on that end of the floor, scoring at least 1.07 points per possession in eight of their last nine contests.

Keith Appling proved himself as a defender last season, and this year he’s added the offensive game to go with it.  He was sensational against IU with 25 points, seven assists, and six rebounds, and he was the offensive during key stretches against Wisconsin.  The Spartans continue to do a terrific job defensively as well as on the glass, which has been a staple of all the great Izzo teams.

New Mexico

Steve Alford’s club has now won 11 straight and picked up a couple key victories late in December on the road against New Mexico State and at home against Saint Louis.

Sophomore Tony Snell has really stepped up his game, averaging a team-high 13.9 points and hitting 44.8 percent from deep.  That gives them yet another threat to go with big man Drew Gordon and guard Kendall Williams.  Gordon has scored at least 10 points in seven straight games with five double-doubles, including efforts with 19- and 20-rebounds.  Williams is starting to show flashes of the ability that made him the MWC Freshman of the Year last season, and Aussie guard Hugh Greenwood is playing well in the backcourt.

The Mountain West race should be entertaining with UNLV, San Diego State, and the Lobos all battling it out.

Seton Hall

It was easy to dismiss Seton Hall’s 11-1 start after they got crushed by Syracuse, but the Pirates bounced back to beat West Virginia and UConn at home by a combined 31 points.

Senior Herb Pope is leading the way by averaging a double-double, and he seems fully recovered from the health issues that lingered with him throughout last season.  They are also getting terrific play at the point from Jordan Theodore who boasts one of the nation’s top assist rates and has already been to the free throw line 82 times.

Outside of the Syracuse game, their offensive and defensive efficiency numbers have been pretty consistent.  They’ve scored at least 1.05 ppp in eight of their last nine and have held 10 of their last 11 opponents to 0.97 ppp or less.  Don’t be surprised if they win their next five Big East games.

Temple

The Owls have been up and down so far this season, but they looked terrific in a 78-73 win over Duke this week.  It’s even more impressive when you consider they are without big man Micheal Eric, which leaves them just one player over 6-foot-6.  Projected started Scootie Randall hasn’t played all season either, but the team continues to be efficient on the offensive end, thanks in part to 38.9 percent shooting from beyond the arc.

The trio of Ramone Moore, Khalif Wyatt, and Juan Fernandez has been terrific on the perimeter, averaging a combined 44.3 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 10.7 assists.  The Owls haven’t been as effective defensively as Fran Dunphy’s recent teams, but they do enter Atlantic 10 play with plenty of momentum.  Like the MWC, it should be a fun conference race to track throughout the season.

The Bottoms Line: Stock Down

Harvard

A loss to Fordham would hurt any team, but the damage is magnified for the Crimson.  Entering that game, they were 12-1 with their lone loss coming on the road to UConn, which really couldn’t be held against them from a seeding standpoint.

Not the case with the Fordham loss.  So while I still believe Harvard is a virtual lock to win the Ivy League auto-bid, their best wins are against Florida State and Saint Joseph’s, neither of which is a lock for the tournament at this point.  And when the committee evaluates the Crimson, they aren’t going to find many quality wins, but they will see an ugly loss to Fordham.  The last set of bracket projections I looked at had them around an eight seed, but this loss drops them into double digits.

Northwestern

It would be a great story to see Northwestern finally make the tournament, but I just don’t see it happening.  While their neutral court wins over Seton Hall and LSU look much better now than when they happened, they have lost to every other decent team they’ve played.  Baylor and Ohio State beat them by a combined 61 points, and they lost on the road against Creighton.

But this week’s home failure against Illinois was a killer.  The Illini are decent but have struggled recently and played without starting guard Sam Maniscalco, which for a team with virtually no bench scoring should have been a huge blow.  So now the Wildcats are 1-2 in the league with their next five games on the road against Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota and at home versus Michigan State and Purdue.  Given the team’s struggles on defense, a 1-7 start in Big Ten play is not out of the question.

Pittsburgh

If you were on the fence about Pitt heading into Thursday’s game against DePaul (I wasn’t), their last-second loss to the Blue Demons places them firmly in full meltdown mode.  They have now lost four straight games and sit at 0-3 in the Big East, and the air of invnicibility at home is gone after three home losses.  Their best win is against La Salle, and at least a couple of their losses came against teams that won’t even be in the tournament discussion.

The Panthers are salvageable offensively, but they completely lack the trademark Pitt toughness on the defense end, allowing each of their three league foes to score at least 1.08 points per possession.  That’s not something you can easily fix at this point in the season, and the schedule only gets harder.

Texas A&M

The Aggies were projected to finish at or near the top of the Big 12, but right now they aren’t even in the tournament discussion.  Following Monday’s loss to Baylor, they are 9-4 with zero wins against anyone in Pomeroy’s Top 150.  Seven of their wins have come against teams ranked 281st or lower, and they’ve also lost at home to Rice.

A&M’s offense has been brutal, scoring less than a point per possession in eight of their last 11 games.  They are shooting less than 30 percent from three-point range, turn the ball over at a high rate, and rarely get to the line (although they don’t shoot well when they get there).  The defense has been decent, but the lack of quality competition has played a big role there as well.

Injuries have played a role in the team’s struggles, but now freshman point guard Jamal Branch has decided to transfer, which leaves the inefficient Dash Harris as the only real option at that position.  I just haven’t seen anything from them so far that suggests they will turn things around.

Xavier

It’s tough to recall another team with a more precipitous fall, and the Musketeers have now lost five of six games since the brawl with Cincinnati, their only win coming against a terrible Southern Illinois team.

Jeff Borzello of CBS talked to some coaches about what they think might be wrong, and the numbers back up many of the theories.  Xavier has allowed their last six opponents to score at least 1.02 ppp after holding their first eight foes to 0.98 or less.  On offense, they have scored 1.01 ppp in five of the last six games after doing so just twice in their first eight.

Maybe the fight caused them to be less aggressive on both ends.  Their free throw rate has dropped, they are forcing fewer turnovers, and they are allowing opponents to get more open shots to name a few things that support that claim.  All that being said, they still have the talent to win the A-10 if they can right the ship, but every loss makes that seem less and less likely.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

I’ll be releasing my own projections starting next week, but for now I thought it would be worthwhile to look at how Big Ten teams are shaping up with as many as nine of them in some of these mock brackets.

For the purposes of this exercise, I have narrowed down the projections to Andy Glockner of SI.com, Shawn Siegel of College Hoops Net, and Dave Ommen of Bracketville.  The latter two names both rank atop the bracket project matrix which has tracked success over the last few years, and Glockner is a great follow on Twitter and does a tremendous job of sharing his thought process as he brackets the teams each Sunday night.

One other thing to keep in mind is that while the committee uses RPI in the selection and seeding process, it can be a bit misleading at this point of the season.  You’ll currently find a number of teams from outside of the six major conferences with high RPI’s, fueled largely by their strength of schedule numbers.  Once they start playing teams in their own leagues, and once major conference teams start challenging themselves in conference play as well, things should start to shift.

In order of average seed, here are the nine Big Ten teams in the discussion:

Ohio State (Glockner/Ommen: 1, Siegel: 2)

Kentucky and Syracuse were unanimous top seeds, while Ohio State and North Carolina showed up on two of the three projections.

Siegel opted for Baylor over the Buckeyes, which is an argument you can certainly make.  The Bears have more wins against the RPI Top 100 and have a number of good wins against teams like Mississippi State, San Diego State, Saint Mary’s, and at BYU.  However, the Buckeyes have knocked off Duke and Florida, so their “best” wins are better.

Still, they have two losses, although neither can be considered “bad” since one game at Kansas without Jared Sullinger and the other came in a close game on the road against Indiana, who is 13th in the RPI.

Barring a collapse, it’s hard seeing the Buckeyes getting anything lower than a two seed come March.

Indiana (Glockner/Siegel/Ommen: 3)

With wins over Kentucky and Ohio State, you could argue that no team has two better wins than the Hoosiers.  If you want to nitpick though, seven of their 13 wins have come against teams outside of the RPI Top 200, so strength of schedule is one factor keeping them from getting a higher seed.

Their SoS should climb as they move through Big Ten play, and with UConn losing to Seton Hall, the opportunity to move up is certainly there.  Indiana’s lone loss came at Michigan State, so there’s no shame in that.

Michigan State (Glockner/Siegel/Ommen: 3)

These projections came out prior to Sparty’s road win over Wisconsin, so Tom Izzo’s squad has a good chance to improve their seed when the next set of projections come out.  Both of their losses came against teams in the RPI Top 15, one of which was on a aircraft carrier so who knows how much stock you can put in that.

MSU has now won 14 straight games and is playing as well as anyone in the nation’s top conference.  The only knock on them is that just two of their wins (Indiana, at Gonzaga) are against the RPI Top 50.  If they keep playing the way they are, a two-seed is definitely realistic.

Wisconsin (Glockner/Siegel: 5, Ommen: 6)

The Badgers are an interesting case.  They rank 60th in the RPI and are just 1-3 against the Top 50 and 5-4 against the Top 150.  Outside of an 11-point home win over UNLV, there really isn’t much else on their profile in terms of a marquee win.  Their next two games are on the road against Michigan and Purdue, so a split there would help stop their seeding freefall.

Michigan (Siegel: 4, Glockner/Ommen: 6)

The Wolverines are one of the teams I can’t quite figure out yet.  Their two best wins are against Memphis in Maui and at home against Minnesota, and at this point neither of those teams is safely in the field.  They currently sit at 31st in the RPI with seven of their 12 victories against teams outside of the Top 150.

Thursday’s game at Indiana is a chance to prove themselves, as is Sunday’s home date with Wisconsin.  At this point, I lean more toward Glockner and Ommen’s seed for Michigan.

Purdue (Siegel/Ommen: 7, Glockner: 10)

Purdue’s road win at Iowa looked better after the Hawkeyes knocked off Wisconsin, and I think their win over Miami (FL) will look better by the end of the year.  For now, the loss to Butler hurts, but that may change as well.

The Boilers also have wins over Iona, Temple, and Illinois, all of which are in the Top 32 of the RPI.  That said, they are 4-3 against the Top 100 with six of their 12 wins over sub-150 teams.  For seeding purposes, their losses to Alabama and Xavier may become important, because right now those teams are right around the same seed range.

Illinois (Siegel/Ommen: 8, Glockner: 9)

Since winning their first 10 games, the Illini have dropped three of five with their two wins over that span coming by four over Cornell and in double overtime against Minnesota.  A home win against Gonzaga is nice, but otherwise there isn’t much meat on their resume.  They are 3-3 against the RPI Top 100, but they also don’t really have a bad loss.  T

he schedule doesn’t do them any favors with just one game against Iowa and Penn State in Big Ten play.  A few more losses could send Illinois careening toward the bubble.

Minnesota (Glockner: 11, Siegel/Ommen: 12)

The Gophers have performed better than most people expected following the loss of Trevor Mbakwe, but they are off to a 0-2 start in Big Ten play.  They are just 1-3 against the RPI Top 50, but they are 5-0 against teams ranked 51-100 (Bucknell, Fairfield, Indiana State, North Dakota State, and South Dakota State).

I’m not sure how realistic it is for many of those teams to remain in that range, which means the Gophers need to start picking up some quality wins to remain in the field.

Northwestern (Siegel/Ommen: 13, Glockner: First Four Out)

The good news is that the wins against LSU and Seton Hall look better now than they did earlier this year.  The bad news is they have been crushed by a combined 61 points in games against Baylor and Ohio State.  Eight of their 11 wins have come against teams outside of the RPI Top 150, which leaves them just 3-3 against everybody else.

Their next six games are critical with home games against Illinois, Michigan State, and Purdue and road trips to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

For the first time, both leagues have the same number of teams, so there are 12 games on this year’s slate.  (In the event of a 6-6 tie, the Big Ten will retain the Commissioner’s Cup in case you were wondering.  Spoiler alert: That shouldn’t be an issue.)

Here’s a look at the schedule for the two-day event.  I also wrote a preview for Run The Floor, which focuses more on advanced metrics and is a bit snarkier since the Managing Editor there is an ACC guy.

ACC/Big Ten Challenge Games on Tuesday, Nov 29th

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#15 Michigan at Virginia – 7:00 EST (ESPN2)

Expect this one to be played at a painfully slow pace, but the tip time is early enough that it shouldn’t put you to sleep. Virginia is among the most efficient teams on the defense end, while Michigan is just outside the Top 25 in offensive efficiency, so something has to give.

The Wolverines have played better competition thanks to their time in Maui, while the Cavaliers recently returned from the Paradise Jam where they rebounded to win two games after a disappointing loss to TCU in the tournament opener.  UVA big man Mike Scott could give Michigan some trouble inside, but both teams are largely perimeter-oriented in terms of their personnel.

Tim Hardaway Jr. will be the best player on the floor, but I also like the contributions Michigan is getting from veterans Zach Novak and Stu Douglass as well as freshman point guard Trey Burke.  Still, the Wolverines have struggled to defend the three-point shot, and Virginia excelled from long range last season.

The other red flag has been Michigan’s propensity to put their opponents on the free throw line, and their 13th-ranked free throw rate suggests the Cavaliers will be able to take advantage of that deficiency.  I expect a close game, with Virginia having the slight edge based on concerns about Michigan’s defense.

• Prediction: Virginia

Northwestern at Georgia Tech – 7:15 EST (ESPNU)

Both of these teams participated in the Charleston Classic with Northwestern winning the tournament and the Jackets finishing 1-2.  It’s worth noting they played one of those games without leading scorer Glen Rice Jr., who was wrapping up a three-game suspension.  At 17.7 points per game, Rice leads five Georgia Tech players averaging over 8.0 points, but they aren’t getting much outside of those five guys.

Defense has been the Yellow Jackets’ calling card so far, but they will be tested by the duo of John Shurna and Drew Crawford, who have combined to score better than 40 points per game so far.  Keep an eye on how freshman point guard Dave Sobolewski handles Georgia Tech’s defense, as that will go a long way toward deciding the outcome.

The other area to monitor is Northwestern’s ability to limit second shots.  The Jackets have posted a strong offensive rebounding percentage and could give the Wildcats trouble on the glass.

• Prediction: Northwestern

Illinois at Maryland – 7:30 EST (ESPN)

For a number of reasons, the Terps are forced to play mostly young and/or inexperienced players, which has them off to a 3-2 start.  They lost two of their three games in Puerto Rico, to Alabama by 20 and to Iona by 26.

Maryland Sophomore Terrell Stoglin is emerging as a star with 20.2 points per game.  His shooting percentages have dropped across the board, but he’s the clear focal point of the offense with nearly twice as many field goal attempts as any of his teammates.  Maryland’s efficiency numbers have been absolutely brutal on both ends of the floor, leaving little reason for optimism there.

The Illini are also young, so neither team has a clear advantage in that regard.  Junior guard D.J. Richardson is off to a good start with 13.5 points per game to go with 40.5 percent shooting from beyond the arc.  Inside, soph big man Meyers Leonard is posting 12.3 points, 6.8 boards, and an impressive 3.2 blocks per game.  In a game with two relatively inexperienced teams, Illinois’ defense and inside play should be the difference.

• Prediction: Illinois

Miami (FL) at Purdue – 9:00 EST (ESPN2)

Had injuries not ravaged the Miami frontcourt, this would be a tougher matchup for Purdue given the composition of their team.

As it stands, the Canes are 4-1 while relying heavily on their talented backcourt of Malcolm Grant and Durand Scott, who combine to average 30.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 5.2 assists.  Miami is shooting just 40 percent from the field, which is not a good sign against a Purdue defense ranked in the Top 15 for defensive efficiency.

The Boilers picked up solid wins over Iona and Temple in Puerto Rico before falling to Alabama in the championship, but the best news is that Robbie Hummel looks healthy after missing last season with a knee injury.  He is pacing the team with 19.3 points per game while hitting 46.7 percent from deep.  Sharpshooter Ryne Smith has been red hot for most of the season, and Lewis Jackson has been terrific at the point.

Look for Kelsey Barlow to lock down either Grant or Scott and for the Boilers to emerge victorious.

• Prediction: Purdue

Clemson at Iowa – 9:15 EST (ESPNU)

I won’t blame you if you don’t go out of your way to watch this one.  Clemson has losses to College of Charleston and Coastal Carolina, while Iowa just lost at home by 15 to Campbell.

The Tigers have four players averaging at least 9.8 points, led by guard Andre Young with 14.4 points per contest.  Clemson has been solid defensively, but they haven’t been impressive on offense, particularly in terms of getting to the free throw line.  Of course, they’re only making 64.5 percent once they get there, so maybe it’s by design.

Meanwhile, Iowa has eight players scoring at least 7.2 points per game, and as a team they are hitting over 39 percent from deep.  Like Clemson, they have struggled to get to the stripe, but they have really struggled defensively, and their opponents have routinely shot a high percentage from the field.

• Prediction: Clemson

#4 Duke at #2 Ohio State – 9:30 EST (ESPN)

This is easily the marquee matchup of the event’s first day.

The Blue Devils should have plenty of confidence coming off of their win in Maui.  Duke is hitting a ridiculous 45.9 percent from beyond the arc so far, led by Seth Curry at 57.1 percent and Andre Dawkins at 44.7.  They are two of the five Blue Devils scoring in double figures, but there hasn’t been a ton of production from others with the notable exception of Tyler Thornton’s two huge three-pointers to seal the win over Kansas.  Duke has been adept at getting to the free throw line, and they have been better than I expected on defense.

As for the Buckeyes, they have been outstanding on both ends of the floor, as evidenced by Pomeroy Ratings in the Top Five for both offensive and defensive efficiency. Jared Sullinger has picked up right where he left off with 18.8 points and 10.7 rebounds along with 63.3 percent shooting from the field.

Like most teams in college basketball, Duke will have a hard time containing him on the inside.  William Buford complements Sullinger outside where he’s averaging 17.7 points and hitting 50 percent from deep.  Throw in point guard Aaron Craft, who is one of my favorites guys to watch, and you have a really intriguing backcourt matchup between these two squads.

Ohio State has struggled with its long-range shooting, but its defense should be enough to disrupt Duke on offense.

• Prediction: Ohio State

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ACC/Big Ten Challenge Games on Wednesday, Nov 30th

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Indiana at North Carolina State – 7:15 EST (ESPN2)

While many predicted a rebuilding year for Mark Gottfried and the Wolfpack, they have played fairly well so far and came back from a healthy second half deficit to knock off Texas on a neutral floor.  After serving a three-game suspension to start the season, C.J. Leslie has been impressive with 16.7 points, 5.7 boards, 2.3 steals, and 2.3 blocks while hitting 63.0 percent from the field.  He leads six players scoring in double figures, including point guard Lorenzo Brown who is dishing out 6.5 assists per game as well.  While N.C. State has done a nice job taking care of the ball, they have struggled to hit and defend shots from beyond the arc.

The Hoosiers are off to their best start in years, thanks in large part to their hot shooting both inside and outside the arc.  Seven players are averaging at least 7.0 points, led by freshman phenom Cody Zeller with 14.8 points and 7.7 rebounds per contest. The biggest difference for IU has come on the defensive end where they have seen a sharp increase in their turnover rate.  They have also done a much better of job of not putting opponents on the line while getting there with much more regularity on offense.

This will be another solid road test for the Hoosiers but one they seem poised to pass based on their defense and outside shooting.

• Prediction: Indiana

Penn State at Boston College – 7:15 EST (ESPNU)

Unless you attended one of these schools or both of the other games are at commercial breaks, you probably aren’t tuning in for this one.

Both teams lost virtually everyone from last season’s rosters and are in full blown rebuilding mode this year.  Both teams have also been woefully inefficient offensively, with Boston College being the worse of the two on the defensive end.

With 19.1 points per game, Penn State guard Tim Frazier is the only Nittany Lion scoring in double figures, and he’s also pacing the team with 7.1 assists.  Freshman Patrick Heckmann leads BC with 13.8 points per game, but tons of questions remain on the roster, particularly once you get past their top four scorers.

Penn State’s offensive rebounding could be the difference in this one, but in the end, I simply can’t write any more about this game.

• Prediction: Penn State

Florida State at Michigan State – 7:30 EST (ESPN)

Like the previous matchup, these two teams are pretty similar.  The difference is that they both aren’t terrible, at least not on both ends of the floor.  These squads are built around defense and rebounding, while both struggle to put points on the board.

Seven Noles are scoring at least 7.0 points per game, but the team is shooting just 31.7 percent from beyond the arc.  The Spartans are actually worse, hitting just 23.8 percent of their triples.  They have also been unable to find a true point guard, which has led to an ugly turnover rate.  Draymond Green is averaging a double-double with 12.7 points and 11.2 rebounds, but his shooting has been poor and he’s trying to do too much on offense.

Aside from the battle on the glass, keep an eye on Florida State’s ability to get to the free throw line.  The Noles have a decent free throw rate, while Michigan State is putting opponents on the line with regularity.  Ultimately it’s hard to see Sparty solving their shooting woes against a team ranked 10th in effective field goal percentage defense.

I’m pretty sure it’s ok to plagiarize yourself, so as I said in my Run The Floor piece: In short, these two teams are mirror images of one another, which is ironic since watching either one play offense will make you want to break a mirror and start cutting yourself with the shattered pieces.  This one is a toss-up, so give me the home team!

• Prediction: Michigan State

Virginia Tech at Minnesota – 9:15 EST (ESPN2)

The Hokies gave Syracuse a scare in the NIT semi-finals before squeaking out a two-point win over Oklahoma State in the consolation game.  Their strength lies in the backcourt with Erick Green and Dorenzo Hudson leading the way with over 29 points per game between them.  Freshman wing Dorian Finney-Smith has impressed early in his career and is averaging 10.3 rebounds through six games.  On offense, the Hokies have struggled with turnovers but have done a nice job of getting to the stripe.

For Minnesota, the recent loss of forward Trevor Mbakwe is devastating in every possible way, as everything they did well on offense resulted from his relentlessness inside.  The Gophers are still searching for answers in the backcourt, but juco transfer Julian Welch played well in the Old Spice Classic.

Since the Hokies have struggled to force turnovers, it seems unlikely they will be able to take advantage of Minnesota’s biggest weakness, and without Mbakwe the Gophers will struggle to exploit Va Tech’s weakness on the offensive glass.  Instead, they will end up shooting more from the perimeter, where the Hokies are at their best on defense.

• Prediction: Virginia Tech

Wake Forest at Nebraska – 9:15 EST (ESPNU)

On the surface, this would appear to be another matchup of two teams picked to finish in the bottom of each league.

OK, that’s actually what it is, but I do think Nebraska could surprise a few teams in the Big Ten.  They have a pair of talented guards in Bo Spencer and Dylan Talley, who are averaging a combined 28.4 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 7.2 assists, to go with Jorge Brian Diaz inside.  Outside of solid shooting, their offensive efficiency numbers aren’t impressive, as they struggle to get to the line or grab offensive boards.  The Huskers also don’t force many turnovers, but otherwise they’ve been solid defensively.

The Demon Deacons are coming off of a 8-24 season and just went 1-2 in the Old Spice Classic.  C.J. Harris and Travis McKie each score better than 19 points per game and pace the offense.  Outside of the 6-foot-7 McKie, Wake isn’t getting much from its frontcourt.  They are doing a woeful job on the offensive glass and an equally poor job on the defensive boards, while their opponents are routinely shooting a high percentage from the field.

Look for the Huskers to take advantage of Wake’s poor defense to pick up the victory.

• Prediction: Nebraska

#7 Wisconsin at #5 North Carolina – 9:30 (ESPN)

This will be an interesting contrast in styles to close things out. The Badgers play at one of the slower paces in all of college hoops, while North Carolina wants to get up and down the floor.

Wisconsin is the top team in terms of limiting opponents’ effective field goal percentage and offensive rebounding, while the Heels have struggled to defend the three-point shot over their last few games.  The Badgers have Jordan Taylor (11.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 5.8 apg) and a bunch of guys no one has heard of, while UNC’s roster is full of McDonald’s All-Americans and lottery picks, led by Harrison Barnes (17.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg), John Henson (15.8 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 3.0 bpg), and Tyler Zeller (13.5 ppg, 7.2 rpg).

After being outplayed by UNLV on Saturday night, I will be interested to see how North Carolina responds.  They forced shots and got dominated on the glass by the Rebels, and they were unable to prevent penetration on defense, which led to a number of kick-outs for three-pointers.  That could be bad news against a Wisconsin team hitting better than 47 percent from downtown.

The Badgers were tested by BYU on Saturday before going on a second half run to win by 17 points, but going into the Dean Dome and winning is a pretty tall order.  Their defense will keep it close, but they will need big shooting days from Ben Brust and Josh Gasser to spring the upset. Given UNC’s defense so far, that isn’t as far-fetched as it might seem.

• Prediction: North Carolina

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

This, after concerns once the field was laid out at Wrigley, and it was realized that the SAFER barriers in front of the indentation of the right field wall (as Pat Hughes would refer to it on Cubs broadcasts) would be mere inches away from the middle of the end line in the east end zone. The fact that the near sidelines were also precariously close to the right field stands was also too close for comfort.

Because of that, the east end zone will be secured for the offenses on Saturday. After each change of possession, the ball will be repositioned and both teams will be moving from right to left on your radio dial the entire game. The only plays that will start left to right will be kickoffs. Also the only way a touchdown will be scored in the outfield end zone that is all dressed up with no place to go will be either on a punt or turnover return, or a safety.

So what was billed as the first ‘Wrigleyville Football Classic’ will almost no doubt also prove to be the last. Technically, this will also serve as the first and last night game ever to be played at Wrigley, due to a 2:30 local start time.

All of this begs the question: How the world did the Chicago Bears survive playing at the not-so Friendly Confines (at least for football) through 1970?

The answer is not very well.

The layout for the Illinois-Northwestern game is from the Bartman third-base line to the right field fence, and would have featured PAT’s landing onto Sheffield Avenue. During the Bears tenure the field was laid out from the first base line to left field. There was also a temporary grandstand that was placed in right field which did allow attendance to reach 46,000.

However, as was the case with the Northwestern layout, there was not quite room for 120 yards for the Bears, as evidenced by these pictures (Note – goalposts were at the goal-line during this era)…

As you could tell, the left field end zone was obviously fewer than ten yards. Also notice the padding in front of the ivy. That was a result of Bronko Nagurski in the early days thundering past the goal line until his leather helmet met brick wall. The first base line also featured a corner far less than the regulation ten yards. Since the Bears moved, additional seating was added to the home plate area making the old Bears layout for Illinois/Northwestern more impractical.

In the pre-1970 NFL, quirky field dimensions were simply accepted as part of the ground rules. There were also several other baseball facilities that hosted NFL games with similar problems back in the day. As recently as 1994, the Green Bay Packers played part of their regular season schedule at Milwaukee County Stadium, the regulation ten-yard end zones were used, but a receiver could conceivably land in row three trying to catch a pass on the third base side of the stadium – which was more of a safety hazard to fans trying to hold onto a couple of cups filled with soda (or some other beverage) than the players themselves.

And there was also the time Sterling Sharpe thought he had passed the goal-line in a snowstorm when in fact he had only passed the five-yard line. The defender knocked the ball from him but miraculously bounced right back to him.

There was also a WLAF/NFL Europe team once called the Barcelona Dragons. Since their home stadium was fitted for soccer (110 yards) the venue featured end zones that were only 7-8 yards. That could had been an option for Illinois/Northwestern had they chosen.

By the 1960s the fact of Wrigley being without lights was also becoming a sticking point with the NFL. Teams in the Central Time Zone in those days traditionally started games at 1 PM, meaning that late-season games ended in the gloaming – as evidenced by watching the second half of this game played on November 30, 1969.

And obviously no lights meant the Bears could not play a late-afternoon game for television or be on Monday Night Football. Commissioner Pete Rozelle also lobbied the Bears to move their 1963 NFL Championship game from Wrigley to Soldier Field, so the game could start at 1 PM and the lights would be available had the game had gone into overtime. As it was, the ’63 title game was moved up to a noon local start.

Eventually, even Major League Baseball got fed up with Wrigley sans lights. After allowing the Cubs to host two afternoon NLCS games in 1984, the National League ruled that the Cubs would have to play post-season games in St. Louis had they qualified the following season. That finally got the ball rolling towards illumination, and the Cubs hosted their first night game in August 1988, 40+ years after every other MLB venue had installed lights.

Ironically, the Bears had a lot of pull in the league during the 1950s/1960s and persuaded the Green Bay Packers to eventually build the facility that became Lambeau Field. Through the 1956 season the Packers played their Green Bay games at what was basically a high school field, with expanded bleachers to accommodate 25,000 spectators.

The Packers used the high school as their locker room while the opposition often ended up dressing at the team hotel. It was not an ideal situation for either team, but at least the field was regulation and there were no brick walls.

The Wrigley Field gimmick is not a total failure. They did get ESPN GameDay to show up, an impressive feat for what’s otherwise a match-up of a couple of meddling Big Ten programs that makes the SEC at least semi-jealous. And in typical Wrigley fashion, they were able to upcharge tickets to a much higher price than if the teams simply met at Ryan Field.

And for those sitting in the Sheffield bleachers? Too bad suckers; they already have your money. You wanted something unique, and you got something unprecedented and a charade that will not be repeated.

Maybe the next time Illinois and Northwestern wants some attention they should take another page out of Bears history from an occasion where Wrigley was out of commission for an NFL playoff game due to a snowstorm, and move festivities to the United Center and play the first NCAA Arena Football game.

The previous six “battles” have been won by a total of 23 points.  For you math wizards that is about a field goal difference per game.

As an Indiana fan my analysis is admittedly biased from my Crimson colored glasses:)  Nonetheless, my expectations are as follows:

Indiana-Northwestern Game Info

• Indiana-Northwestern Date: Saturday, October 30th
• Indiana-Northwestern Kickoff Time: Noon
• Indiana-Northwestern TV: Big Ten Network
• Indiana-Northwestern Spread: Northwestern -3

Indiana-Northwestern General Analysis/Expectation

For those listening to the BIG 10 preview podcast you’ll recall I thought NU would play a roll in the outcome of the Big10 title.  While not winning the title I anticipated NU finishing in the upper tier below Iowa and OSU.  NU crashed and burned at home to Purdue, but nearly rebounded versus a top 10 MSU squad.

Meanwhile, IU has been primarily lifeless after the loss at home to UM.

After two consecutive loses I expect NU to come out like they still believe a quality bowl game is possible.  On the other hand, I anticipate IU sticking to their consistently uber-conservative approach and play as if content for another 0-8 or 1-7 Big10 finish.

Indiana-Northwestern on Offense

Generally IU will be unable to run the ball as they’ve been incapable all year (decade).  In defense of the Hoosiers, they’ve shifted the offensive line around because of injury and lost for the season is their #1 RB.  Most importantly their injured RB was been strong in blitz protection and, unfortunately, this has become painfully obvious for those watching games against OSU and ILL-INI.  If you need additional proof look at how QB Ben Chappell’s numbers have collapsed since the UM game.

If NU has watched film as ILL did, then they would be smart to understand while Chappell has a stable of WRs he consistently looks for Doss in “emergency” situations.  Two INT’s for TD’s last week can attest to this.

Furthermore, do not look for IU to stretch the field via a pass over 30 yards.  With a defense not capable of stopping a powder-puff squad Coach Bill Lynch believes it is best to “limit the big play on defense and control the ball on offense”. For those seeking statistical evidence correlating wins and time of possession you will not find it (for reference see IU’s 42 minutes versus UM’s 18 minutes of possession).

If NU is lucky, then IU will occasionally rotate their backup QB Dusty Kiel to run a version of the wildcat.  Oddly this does not align IU with ANY strength they posses.  Running the ball with a backup QB who has, at best, average speed only steals from the limited snaps their senior QB can toss the ball to NFL prospect Doss or ball hogging TE
Bolser (5 TDs).

Otherwise expect a generic approach with a handful of 10-20 yard “outs”, an occasional drag over the middle by Turner, a handful of screens to supplement the run, three/four spread option plays featuring Chappell who is NO THREAT TO RUN, and despite being a legitimate deep threat a hand off to Doss behind center after being put in motion.

Indiana-Northwestern on Defense

As mentioned earlier, IU has a conservative approach to defense typified by their traditional soft zone coverage in the secondary. While you will still see the same approach of IU corners providing ample room for WRs to navigate, you’ll notice IU rotated to their brand of a 3-4 defense.  Although IU has championed this 3-4, have no worries IU fails to capture the intent of the 3-4 via a slew of disguised and confusing blitz packages designed to cause confusion for any QB or o-lineman trying to read a defense.

NU’s QB comes in with a Big 10 best 75% completion rate.  Expect this not to change.  In fact despite the statistical oddity, your expectation is for his pass completion rate to improve.

If IU fans can take solace in a single theme from last weeks listless performance it is the D.  Despite the large amount of points given up versus ILL the IU defense appeared to have improved greatly over previous weeks (IU had 2 INTs returned for TD, two blocked punts with one in the red zone and another in the end zone, and a handful of defensive possessions beginning on the wrong side of the 50).

In fact if the defense IU played against UM or OSU showed up last Saturday IU would have given up 60, easily.  After last weeks defensive showing Hoosier fans should be excited about the improvement.  Nevertheless, IU has struggled mightily in the Bill Lynch era with dual threat QBs.

Indiana-Northwestern Special Teams

Hard to call ‘em special when IU nearly lost versus Arkansas State because of two kicks returned to the 50 and beyond. Moreover, two blocked punts last week cost me sleep.  Fortunately IU’s backup kicker has filled in marvelously.  So have no worry field goals when down by 20+ are under control.

One must ask the question, why fall victim to the cliche about field position?  Does field position matter if your defense is a sieve? Field position should mean nothing and you should be looking to stretch drives via 4th down conversions and playing a high risk/return style of defense with ambitions of creating 3 or 4 turnovers.  Judge the defensive effort not on how many points you’ve allowed (usually rarely contested), rather did you cause 4 turnovers?  IU can give up 35, but if it caused 4 turnovers they’re most likely in the game. Oppositely, if IU gives up 35 with no turnovers they’re down by 17 or
greater.  Yes, that simple.

In short, my special teams analysis is who cares?  The only special teams question IU fans should ask is– “can we recover an onside kick?”

Indiana-Northwestern Closing and Pick

For IU it’s their season.  They lose this then the remaining winnable games against Penn State and @Purdue are history. A loss here is 0-8 and a GIANT disappointment and regression from last season, unquestionably.  Too grim?

I am sticking to the history.  The home team wins defined on a 4th quarter drive or turnover.

IU 31 – NU 29

Moreover, jumping ahead of myself, if and only if IU wins and Iowa wins at home against MSU then upset (read: covering the spread) against Iowa at home next week is the play.

Go IU,
Wendell Willkie

The 2010 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament preview post is live.

——————–

We are now firmly in the heart of the conference schedule as the 2008-2009 college basketball season sprints towards the glory of March Madness. Earlier today, we offered up a quick preview of the 2009 NCAA Mens Basketball Tournament, and now we will get a little more granular and preview the 2009 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament.

I have to admit that doing this preview is a little bittersweet for me as an IU fan. This season’s Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament will most likely mark the first (and hopefully only) time that Indiana comes in as the #11 seed. As IU fans, we all understand that It is the price we have to pay for the era of the lying-cheating-bastard-who-shall-not-be-named, but it does not make it any easier to handle.

Still, there will be a twinge of excitement come March 12th when the Hoosiers tip off against whoever the #5 seed winds up being in this topsy-turvy season of Big Ten basketball. Maybe Devan Dumes and Matt Roth can get hot from the outside and the Hoosiers can pull off an upset. Not likely, I know. Still, the Hoosiers will have a definite home-court advantage playing in front of their fans in Indianapolis, and after last season’s heartbreaking loss to Minnesota on a wild last-second shot, the Big Ten Tournament owes us one.

Anyway, enough pipe-dreaming from me. Onto the particulars of the 2009 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament:

• Dates: March 12-15
• Location: Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana
• TV: Big Ten Network, ESPN, ESPN2, CBS Sports (see below)
• StubHub Tickets: Buy Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Tickets
• StubHub Tickets:2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

And let’s take a quick trip down memory lane and count down the past Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champions: 1998 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #4 seed Michigan defeated #3 seed Purdue 76-67
• Chicago, IL

1999 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #1 seed Michigan State defeated #11 seed Illinois 67-50
• Chicago, IL

2000 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #2 seed Michigan State defeated #4 seed Illinois 76-61
• Chicago, IL

2001 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #6 seed Iowa defeated #4 seed Indiana 63-61
• Chicago, IL

2002 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #2 seed Ohio State defeated #9 seed Iowa 81-64
• Indianapolis, IN

2003 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #2 seed Illinois defeated #8 seed Ohio State 72-59
• Chicago, IL

2004 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #2 seed Wisconsin defeated #1 seed Illinois 70-53
• Indianapolis, IN

2005 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #1 seed Illinois defeated #3 seed Wisconsin 54-43
• Chicago, IL

2006 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #2 seed Iowa defeated #1 seed Ohio State 67-60
• Indianapolis, IN

2007 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #1 seed Ohio State defeated #2 seed Wisconsin 66-49
• Chicago, IL

2008 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #1 seed Wisconsin defeated #10 seed Illinois 61-48
• Indianapolis, IN

2009 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #3 seed Purdue defeated #5 seed Ohio State 65-61
• Indianapolis, IN

Who will this year’s Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament? At this point, it looks like a major toss-up. Michigan State, Michigan, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota, and Penn State have looked capable of winning it at different points this season. And if history is any indicator, a dark horse may emerge once the balls get rolled out on March 12. Four times in the brief ten-year history of the Big Ten Tournament, a team seeded #8 or lower has played in the championship game. The lowest seeded team to ever win the Big Ten tournament, however, is #6 seed Iowa in 2001. So the smart money would go on one of the teams listed above.

Either way, I’m sure it will be an exciting weekend — and the only chance for Indiana to crack this year’s field of 64. No, it isn’t likely. But you better believe Hoosier Nation will be out in droves on March 12th hoping their undermanned Hoosiers can pull off an unlikely first round upset.

There were spells during the game that it felt like Mizzou might actually get something going but then OU would make an adjustment and immediately shut things down. On the flip side I saw nothing that led me to believe Mizzou was trying different schemes or options to try and slow OU down. The most puzzling to me was how far off the line the corners were playing. They were giving OU receivers 5 to 8 yards of cushion the entire game. I mean come on, you’re down 38-7 at the half, what is there to lose by jamming some receivers and getting a little more physical?

Now, I will say that Oklahoma is very impressive; this squad is clicking on all cylinders right now. I keep hearing that Oklahoma will be an underdog to Florida in the Championship game. I don’t see it. Florida is a very good team as well but I honestly don’t see any college team beating the Sooners right now. You can’t tell me that OU’s defense is not good enough to hang with Florida. There’s no doubt Mizzou didn’t do themselves any favors by turning the ball over 3 times, but still, the OU D held the 6th ranked offense in the nation to only 21 points.

I do think this will be a great matchup between the Sooners and Gators but I have to give the edge to Oklahoma.

Meanwhile, Mizzou has accepted an invite to play in the Alamo bowl against Northwestern on Dec. 29th. Two teams with completely different expectations coming into the season, Missouri was a preseason National Championship favorite while Northwestern was just hoping to get into and win a bowl game.

These two teams have not faced each other since 1987 when the Tigers beat the Wildcats in Columbia 28-3. These teams have previously faced off 8 times and are split at 4 wins apiece.

Again, the strength of Mizzou is its explosive offense and its weakness is the 100th ranked defense. Mizzou has losses to three top 25 teams, getting beat by an average of 23 points. Northwestern has losses to two top 25 teams by an average of 26 points. Both teams faced Illinois this year with Mizzou winning by 10 and Northwestern winning by 17.

This should be a good ballgame. Mizzou has several seniors in which this will be their last hoorah, so I am sure they will want to go out on top and give Mizzou their first back to back 10-win seasons in school history.

Northwestern will be playing to reach that 10-win mark as well. Like Mizzou, Northwestern has 23 seniors that will be looking to go out on top. It has been 59 years since Northwestern has won a bowl game.

I have to give the edge to Mizzou on Offense and Northwestern on Defense. Should make for an interesting game. Go Tigers !!

coop92 is a contributing author to Midwest Sports Fans, as well as the editor at Midwest Sports Junkies. Check out his site for additional analysis of the St. Louis Cardinals, the BCS, and Missouri Tigers football.

Being the ACC man that I am, I ensure that I will maintain a fair and balanced approach to the game (because I don’t believe in the Big-Ten that much. We will discuss that come bowl season.)

The Cats show up 5-0 but let’s run down the opponent list – Syracuse, Duke, Southern Illinois, Ohio and Iowa. Had the Cats dropped any of those games no one would have been shocked, but they haven’t. They won all of those games. They have proved to be a consistently higher caliber but those aren’t great teams.

The Iowa win was big, but the Hawkeyes coughed the ball up 5 times, giving up their 14 point lead. One of those came on a Wildcat punt, right before the first half. Iowa mishandled the punt on the 33 yard line with a minute to go. Northwestern managed to get 7 on the board right before the half, and cut the deficit in half. You can’t underestimate that momentum change going into a locker room. If Iowa could have kept NW on the ropes until halftime, the home team may have had the confidence to finish the game. They didn’t. Iowa needs to put in a call to Rich Rodriguez for the memo he already received: you can’t win games when you don’t have the ball.

The Cats are certainly an opportunistic team, a balanced team with a quality quarterback in CJ Bacher and a running game that averages almost 5 yards per carry. Really, they can manage to win games. This isn’t Oklahoma we’re talking about. So the defense is the real question for the Cats. Can they hope to stop, or even slow Javon Ringer?

Off the top of your head you would say, “Have you seen Ringer? There’s no way.” That’s not an unreasonable claim. He is a horse, he has three 200 yard games. Those came, though, on an average of 40 plus carries and against ND, Florida Atlantic and Indiana.

The reality is the Wildcats could slow him down. Iowa did it last week. Ringer touched the ball 25 times and only went for 91 yards. The Spartans came away with the W, but if the Cats can limit the time of possession for MSU and play with a lead this week, then State will be forced to give the ball to QB Brian Hoyer rather than Ringer.

Then again, the Wildcats secondary has to stop Brian Hoyer, who, while he has only found the end zone 4 times this year, has thrown for almost 1200 yards this year. He can move the ball. He’s not Juice Williams or Terrelle Pryor but he’s a quality QB. If the Spartans can convert first downs and get in the red-zone you can be sure Ringer will do his best to find the end zone, he has 12 times this year.

On the other side of the ball, defense has had quite a bit to do with the 5-0 record of Northwestern. They haven’t given up more than 20 points this year and on average give up on 12 points a game. They did however allow 400 plus yards of offense for Iowa and I’m sure Hawkeyes fans agree, if Iowa held on to the football like they should have, the Wildcats would be sitting at 4-1.

Let’s cut to the chase. Northwestern has been tough to this point but if the Northwestern defense slips and Hoyer and Ringer get a lead then Dantonio’s Spartans won’t fall in Evanston. On the other hand, if Fitzgerald’s boys get on the board early, and scrap for some turnovers than the Wildcats could come out 6-0. It will be a battle, but I say look for mistakes, letting up big plays or turnovers are what will decide the game.

Personally, I’m siding with Ringer, any dude that is 5’9” and can carry a workload like his, has my respect. I say he brings his lunch pail to work gets 130 on almost 30 touches and breaks one for at least 40 yards. That breakout is the difference maker.  21-13, Spartans win.