A sports blog by and for Midwest Sports Fans
By the time you read this, the Super Bowl will be over, and the sports world will finally be able to turn more of its attention to college hoops.
A terrific Kansas-Missouri game on Saturday night provided a springboard into “Rivalry Week,” which features a number of intriguing matchups.
Before that tips off though, here are this week’s power rankings.
It sounds a bit odd to say this, but last week was relatively tame in the college hoops world since “only” nine teams in the Top 25 lost. Even so, there are no new teams in this week’s edition of my power rankings, just some jostling of positions.
Saturday was arguably the best day of college basketball so far this season, as a pair of Top Five sqauds squared off, the top-ranked team went down, and a buzzer-beater ended a lengthy home winning streak just to name a few of the notable happenings.
And as usual, that led to plenty of shakeups in this week’s Top 25.
In episode #18 of The Bottoms Line College Basketball Podcast, host Andy Bottoms is once again joined by Rob Dauster and Troy Machir of Ballin’ Is a Habit to discuss all the latest news and events in college basketball.
After yet another week where nearly half of the Top 25 suffered at least one loss, the exercise of putting together my latest power rankings has proven to be challenging once again.
The middle of the list has proven to be a complete mess, but since road wins have been so tough to come by, there are some teams that actually stayed put or even moved up despite losing.
It continues to be an exciting, albeit unpredictable, season in college hoops. Twelve teams ranked in the Top 25 lost last week, with many of those defeats coming on the road. Consequently, putting together this week’s power rankings proved to be pretty challenging once I got past the first 12 teams.
It’s been a couple weeks since the last edition of my power ratings, and a whole lot has changed since then thanks to some surprising results from early conference play, meltdowns from Pitt and Xavier, and a couple more teams falling from the ranks of the unbeaten.
Since last week’s installment of the power rankings, Illinois, Marquette, and Xavier have fallen from the ranks of the unbeaten, leaving just six teams with an unblemished record. One of those teams, Murray State, makes their debut in the Bottoms Line College Basketball Power Rankings this week.
I’m a couple days late on the power rankings this week, but there is no truth to the rumor that I went on a five-day bender following IU’s win over Kentucky. In case you forgot what happened, here’s the video. And in case you want to see a complete moron preview the game, here’s another one.
Now that the college basketball season is about a month old, it’s time for the first installment of the Bottoms Line College Basketball Power Rankings.
Putting these together is my attempt at balancing how teams are playing as well as who they are playing (and ideally beating) to rank the top teams in the nation. So before you get bent out of shape and call me an idiot for having North Carolina at number four, make an argument that they aren’t among the four best teams in the country based on how they played against Kentucky.
That’s what I thought.
In episode #12 of The Bottoms Line College Hoops Talk Podcast, host Andy Bottoms is joined by Rob Dauster and Troy Machir of Ballin’ Is a Habit to discuss all the latest news and events in college basketball.
This week, they discuss: the unfortunate knee injuries to Tim Abromaitis and Trevor Mbakwe; the 3-team race in the MWC; a great week for the A-10; Harvard; struggling Big East teams; and a look at how UNC will respond to their first loss. Also, a look ahead to a few big games over the weekend.
On Monday, the college basketball season officially tips off. Just take a minute to let those words sink in.
Throughout the season, my goal is to highlight notable games so you can plan your weeknights and weekends accordingly. This week is fairly light until we get to Friday…when there are over 120 games to choose from, including the much anticipated Carrier Classic between Michigan State and North Carolina.
As I mentioned during my early look at the ACC back in June, there are plenty of storylines to follow heading into this season. That doesn’t even count conference expansion, which I have generally chosen not to acknowledge until teams actually move.
I will say that the impending additions of Syracuse and Pitt will provide additional depth to a league which has been pretty top-heavy in recent years. But none of that matters this season.
What does matter is that the ACC boasts a North Carolina team rated first in virtually every preseason poll to go with perennial contender Duke and a number of other intriguing teams competing for tournament berths.
Update: The predictions are in below.
Wow.
My heart is still racing from that incredible Kentucky-Ohio State game, and I didn’t even have a dog in the fight! That is what makes March Madness so incredible. Even when your team – for me it’s Indiana – doesn’t make the tournament, the games are still so dramatic that you are compelled to get into it as much as if your own team was playing.
It should not be too difficult to get college basketball fans excited about this matchup. Two of the bluest of the blue bloods (literally) will be facing off in Newark on Sunday. It’s Kentucky-North Carolina. What the hell else do I really have to say?
Note: This post is from 2009. To view our 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:
- March Madness 2010 Schedule, Sites, and Tickets
- MSF Bracket Challenge
- Mens NCAA Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule, Announcers, Spreads
- Midwest Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
- East Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
- South Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
- West Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
- History of Final Four in Indianapolis
- Women’s NCAA Tournament Schedule, Sites, Tickets
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This post will analyze the Michigan State-North Carolina NCAA Championship game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.
From the Maui Invitational to March Madness, it all comes down to Championship Monday. One of the participants in this year’s Mens NCAA Championship Game was excepted: North Carolina. The other, Michigan State, surprised a lot of people (but not me) by surpassing Louisville to even make it to Detroit for the Final Four. They then surprised even more people (including me) by knocking off UConn Saturday night.
Now, the Spartans and head coach Tom Izzo have an opportunity to bring even more joy to the city of Detroit by capturing the 2009 NCAA Championship. All that stands in their way is the most talented team in America and the team that has been more dominant than any other during the NCAA Tournament. Monday night’s game will be, undoubtedly, the most challenging yet for Izzo, Kalin Lucas, and the mighty Spartans.
But so was Saturday night’s game against UConn, and Michigan State was able to impose their will in an 82-73 victory.
And so was last weekend’s game against Louisville, but the Spartans took the Cardinals behind the woodshed in the second half and made all fans of Big Ten basketball proud in a 64-52 victory.
The question now is: can these magic Spartans pull another unexpected rabbit out of their hat with an upset over North Carolina?
I’m about to put my 12-2 record predicting all of the games since the Sweet 16 on the line. I went against Michigan State in their Final Four matchup with UConn. It will take a lot for me to pick against them again.
Unfortunately for all of the Big Ten and Spartan supporters who will be cheering on the guys in green Monday night, North Carolina has proven there are a lot of reasons to like their chances. Will it be enough to overcome the decidedly home court-like advantage that Michigan State will enjoy on Monday night? That’s what we’re here to find out. (Or, at least, predict.)
First, a few of the specifics for the 2009 NCAA Mens Basketball Championship game between Michigan State and North Carolina:
(FYI…the spread and over-under info are the initial lines from BetUs.com from Saturday night. You may want to check there for the most up-to-date info.)
And now, let’s head over to Game Predictor and see how Michigan State and North Carolina match up with respect to the same five statistical categories we have used to analyze every game thus far since the Sweet 16:
So the Tar Heels win three out of the five categories, with the teams being identical in terms of the field goal percentage they give up. For anyone who has been following these predictions, we know that Game Predictor will choose the Tar Heels. They are the higher seed and have the advantage in the stat categories. The question is, how strong will the prediction be? Let’s find out:
Now that we know how Game Predictor sees the game, with no real surprises, it’s time for a little analysis and prediction.
Before we get into the nitty-gritty, let’s discuss one thing that does not matter heading into Monday night’s MSU-UNC game:
Back in December, North Carolina beat Michigan State 98-63 at Ford Field in Detroit
A lot of people are going to point to the Michigan State-North Carolina game from earlier this season as a reason for why North Carolina can and should beat Michigan State on Monday. Why? Same teams + same season + same venue (should) = same result…right?
Not so fast, and here are the reasons:
Okay, now that we have that out of the way, let’s take a look at where each team has an advantage with three reasons why each team will win.
1 – Plain and simple, North Carolina at its best is better than Michigan State at its best.
Can anyone truly, honestly dispute this?
If both of these teams play their absolute best basketball of the season, North Carolina will win. But luckily for the Spartans, the game is not played in such a vacuum. Many people thought Michigan State and Kansas were an even match, and the Spartans came out on top. Most people gave Louisville and UConn the advantage over Michigan State, but the Spartans still came out on top.
Nearly everyone, again, will give North Carolina the advantage over Michigan State — so can the Spartans come out on top?
Well, they can…but they have to force the Tar Heels to play below their ability. And while this is certainly possible in a one game scenario, you would lose more money that you’d win betting against the team with superior ability.
An old adage of winning in the NCAA Tournament is that usually the teams with the most NBA-level talent end up going the furthest. North Carolina certainly has more players projected to make an impact at the next level than Michigan State. Again, this does not necessarily mean that North Carolina will win, but their chances of doing so are certainly better.
2 – Ty Lawson is the best player on the floor.
I realize that this somewhat piggybacks on the last one, but it’s an important distinction. Having a lot of talent is great, but if that talent does not function together as a unit, it does not matter. The reason why Michigan State has beaten Louisville and UConn is that Kalin Lucas has been an oustanding floor general and has guided the talent on the floor with him to play better team basketball than its opponents.
Ty Lawson is doing the exact same thing, and now we know why everyone was so concerned about his toe injury. This guy is magnificent.
And as good as Kalin Lucas is, Ty Lawson is still a notch above. I love Kalin, but he is not as consistent a shooter nor quite as effective a playmaker in the open court as Lawson. A quick comparison:
Look, I love Kalin Lucas. (In fact, I’ve now said that I love him in two consecutive paragraphs, but it’s just a basketball crush and nothing more, I promise.) And you can chalk up Lawson’s advantage in points and assists to the style of play North Carolina employs. Surprisingly, the more slight-of-frame Lucas actually get to the foul line more than Lawson, which proves the kid’s toughness and ability to get into the teeth of the defense. (As well as the fact that Michigan State has played in a few more close games.)
However, those shooting percentages are difficult to ignore. In a one game scenario, either of these guys could be hot or cold. The question is, who is more likely to be hot and who is more likely to be cold? The stats say Ty Lawson is more likely to a great shooting night.
I think the frontcourts for these two teams are very similar (assuming either Raymar Morgan or Goran Suton shows up), and that guard production will likely decide the outcome; if this is true, then it’s hard to choose against the Tar Heels and Lawson.
3 – The Tar Heels have been on a mission since this time last year.
After North Carolina got royally spanked by Kansas in the Final Four last year, the Tar Heels’ terrific trio of Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, and Tyler Hansbrough all decided to come back for another run. Without question, they had one primary goal in mind: win the national title.
Now, I realize that every top echelon team (Michigan State included) enters a season hoping to win a national title. But the Tar Heels entered th
e season expecting to win a national title, and knowing they had the talent to do it. Plus, they had the extra motivation of erasing last year’s Final Four embarrassment. They did that tonight by beating Villanova, and now they have one more step left to complete their season-long journey.
I think this is a big difference between these two teams.
North Carolina started the season as the #1 team in America in both polls, with no other team receiving a first place vote. Then they went out and dominated the majority of their competition and are peaking at just the right time. Michigan State started out at #6 and #7 in the two polls, had an up and down season, but they too are peaking at the right time. But I get a small sense to happy-to-be-here from Michigan State. I think their goal was to make it to Detroit entering the season. North Carolina’s goal was to win it in Detroit.
You will see below that I think the home court advantage is big for Michigan State, but I also think the confidence, belief, and season-long championship tunnel-vision of North Carolina is a big advantage for the Tar Heels. If North Carolina was going to lay an egg, I think they would have done it tonight in the Final Four; but they stared down the evil memory of last year and overcame it emphatically. Now freed from that pressure, there is only one more sprint to the only finish line they were targeting all season: the National Championship.
A supremely talented team that is on a mission, and peaking as they approach their mission’s achievement, is extremely dangerous. North Carolina heading into Monday night is extremely dangerous.
1 – Michigan State can work the offensive glass and control teams in transition
Watch North Carolina play and you are likely to wear our your neck going back and forth trying to keep up with the action. The Tar Heels push the ball and push the ball and push the ball some more. If you are going to beat North Carolina, you absolutely have to be able to play strong transition defense. Surprisingly though, you do not have to dominate the Tar Heels on the glass to win.
Case in point, in their four losses this year:
And earlier tonight, Villanova outrebounded North Carolina 50-46, but still lost 83-69. So clearly, rebounding by itself is not a key to beating North Carolina. But here is what is a key: getting solid offensive rebounding from your frontcourt players, while your backcourt guys are heading back to slow down the North Carolina transition. A deeper look at the Carolina losses this year:
And tonight, Villanova had 19 offensive rebounds, but 10 of them came from backcourt players Dwayne Anderson, Scottie Reynolds, Reggie Redding, and Corey Fisher. With those guys battling inside for offensive rebounds, North Carolina was able to get into transition and get open looks. The result was 83 points and 11-22
shooting from downtown.
Look at the Oklahoma-UNC game. The Sooners tied the Tar Heels on the glass 27-27 overall and beat them 10-6 on the offensive end, with all of those offensive rebounds coming from frontcourt guys. The Sooners held the Tar Heels to 72 points, which is 11 less than the Heels scored in any other tournament game and 17 fewer than their season average. Unfortunately for Oklahoma, they simply could not hit a shot themselves (2-19 from downtown) and only scored 60.
If Michigan State shoots 2-19 from downtown, obviously they have no chance. They had a poor shooting night tonight and still went 6-19 from deep. But if they can follow Oklahoma’s blueprint for slowing down UNC’s pace, the Spartans can win a game played in the 70s.
Can they follow that blueprint?
Well, just look at tonight — because they did. Against a much bigger UConn team, the Spartans were outrebounded only 41-40 and won on the offensive side 16-15. Most importantly, neither Kalin Lucas nor Travis Walton contributed even one rebound to the excellent effort on the offensive glass. What they did do is get back and slow down AJ Price and the Huskies’ running game. UConn only shot 42.4% overall and 2-6 from downtown, both stats proving that they did not get many easy shots, most of which typically come out of transition.
2 – To beat North Carolina you must have guards who can score; Michigan State does
Let’s take a look at North Carolina’s three losses again:
I actually thought that this was a reason why Villanova would have a chance against North Carolina. And while Scottie Reynolds, Reggie Redding, and Corey Fisher combined for 45 points, they were a combined 16-46 from the field. Villanova’s shot selection on Saturday night was, in a word, atrocious.
Michigan State is a much more disciplined team offensively, and should use better shot judgment and be more patient to get open looks. And while I do not think you will see any of their players individually match the output that Vasquez, Rice, Sanders, Teague, and Douglas had in leading their teams to victory, Michigan State does have five players capable of scoring in double-digits and hitting outside shots on a nightly basis: Kalin Lucas, Chris Allen, Durrell Summers, Travis Walton, and Korie Lucious.
Kalin Lucas is the most consistent of the bunch, and he will have to score points on Monday night. He has scored at least 10 in the Spartans’ last four tournament games, including 21 Saturday against UConn. I think Lucas needs to score in the 15-20 range for the Spartans to win, but most importantly they must get balance from these five guys.
The biggest question mark about North Carolina throughout the season was their defense, but they have proven over the last couple of games that they can step it up and play solid D. By no means is it a foregone conclusion that Michigan State’s guards can score enough points to keep up with the Tar Heels, but they do have the talent to do it, which is why they have a chance Monday night.
Without significant point production from the backcourt, you simply do not beat North Carolina; the Spartan guards need to bring it Monday night, and they are capable.
3 – The home court advantage and close game experience
I think these are a big deal. A very big deal.
North Carolina is a team with incredible “spurtability” that likes to lay the hammer down on opponents — a lot like they did against the Spartans early in the year, and a lot like they did against Villanova Saturday. North Carolina jumped out on the Wildcats early, and ‘Nova was never able to get back into it. It looked to me like Villanova was playing as if everything was going against them, and the self-fulfilling prophecy proved true.
The Tar Heels average point differential on the season is 17.8 points (89.8-72.0), so they are used to imposing their will and putting teams away. There is no question in my mind that North Carolina will make some runs on Monday night. They are too good and too talented not to. But with Michigan State having a raucous Detroit crowd willing them on at every opportunity, the Tar Heels will be hard pressed to “knock out” the Spartans.
For a team that gets lots of easy victories, being in a knock-down, drag-out fight can sometimes be challenging. Certainly, North Carolina has won close games this year (79-76 over Virginia Tech, 69-65 over Miami, for example), but they have only played 10 games decided by 10 points or less, going 6-4 in these contests. Michigan State, on the other hand, has been grinding out games all season long. The Spartans average point differential is 9.0 (72.0-63.0) and they are 12-2 in games decided by 10 points or less.
The point differential is obviously a double-edged sword. North Carolina’s shows its potential for dominance, which is why they are about a touchdown favorite on Monday night, and I don’t think anyone would walk away from Monday night completely shocked if North Carolina puts on a dominating performance; we’ve just seen it too often from them in the tournament. However, if Michigan State can battle and keep it close, I like the Spartans’ chances. They are used to playing in closer games and have a great record when it comes to pulling them out.
And that’s where the crowd comes in.
I saw first hand how much a crowd can will a team to stay in a game when the Spartans played in Bloomington this year. Michigan State is one of the finalists for the NCAA title, and Indiana fielded perhaps 
the worst team in school history. Yet, somehow, the Hoosiers were able to make it only a 5-point game, losing 64-59, with Indiana outscoring the Spartans 32-30 in the second half. With such a great disparity in talent, the Hoosiers used grit, determination, will, and the energy of the home crowd to fight until the end.
There is no question that while North Carolina is the more talented and explosive team, that Michigan State is far closer to the Tar Heels than Indiana was to Michigan State. A little more talent and Indiana might have pulled off the upset. For Michigan State, we have seen their grit, determination, and will — and we know how crazy the Ford Field crowd will be for them Monday night. I think all of those factors will help the Spartans keep it close; and if they do, as the stats prove, I think the Spartans have an advantage in a close game.
Okay, so now that we’ve run down three reasons why each team will win, it’s time to hop onto one side of the fence and choose which of these two teams will actually be the victor, and the 2009 NCAA Mens Basketball Champion, on Monday night. However, it’s not quite as easy as just picking one or the other.
My gut says that Tom Izzo’s game-planning brilliance, the Spartans’ grit, Kalin Lucas’ leadership, and the support of the Detroit crowd will keep this game close. And in a close game I like the Spartans, as I just mentioned. However, my head says that North Carolina has such a fierce combination of talent and focus that they are simply unbeatable by any team in college basketball right now. Yet, my heart says Michigan State because of my affinity for their coach and my desire to see the Big Ten gain back some of the prestige that has been lost in recent seasons.
It would be easy to go with my head on this one and make the “safe” pick. However, I’m going with the Spartans, and unlike during the games on Saturday night (when I picked UConn and UNC to win) I can actually cheer with my pick on Monday.
But in the end, I’m not just picking the Spartans because I want to. I saved a very important “why they will win” reason for the end, and here it is:
I trust Tom Izzo more in big games than I trust Roy Williams.
Both are great coaches — Hall of Famers, in fact — and both have won championships before. And while both coaches have had successes and failures in big spots, there is just something visceral about Tom Izzo’s fiery, underdog, energetic style that I buy into more than Roy Williams’ style. Unlike the analysis above, I don’t have lots of stats to back my support for Izzo up, and you are well within your right to say I am biased on this one. But I picked against Izzo in the Michigan State-Connecticut game, and I’m not about to do it again on Monday.
Plus, I think an overzealous North Carolina fan may have unwittingly jinxed the Tar Heels.
I just went to the Wikipedia pages for both Tom Izzo and Roy Williams to examine their career records for something quantitative to back up by claim of trusting Izzo more in big games.
Here is a screen shot of what the section on Izzo’s career coaching record looked like:
And here is a screen shot of what the section on Williams’ career coaching record looked like:
Notice anything funny about the Roy Williams page? Someone already edited it to say “National Championship” for this season. (If you go to the page now, it very well could be edited, but that’s why I did the screen capture. Readers of this site know that I like to have fun with Photoshop from time to time, but I promise you that this is exactly how the pages looked.)
Hmm…it’s 1:
20 am Central Time on Sunday morning as I write this. Looks like somebody jumped the gun bit declaring a winner. And while it’s not the same as the New England Patriots copyrighting 19-0 before the Super Bowl, it’s still jinx-worthy in my book.
Add up North Carolina’s three reasons and the Game Predictor outcome, and then add up Michigan State’s three reasons plus Izzo over Williams, and the two teams are knotted at 4-4. Throw in the jinx and the tie is broken.
Prediction: Michigan State completes a storybook run to the National Championship by winning a close, hard-fought game on Monday night against the backdrop of a city that loves its Spartans, and certainly deserves some joy in the midst of its terrible economic woes.
I can’t wait for this one. It’s going to be one hell of a championship game.
Who do you think will win the 2009 NCAA Mens Basketball Championship game?
- Michigan State (59%, 356 Votes)
- North Carolina (41%, 249 Votes)
Total Voters: 605
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