A sports blog by and for Midwest Sports Fans
After going 4-0 during Wild Card Weekend, I feel back a bit this past weekend. I went 2-2, nailing the San Francisco and New York games while missing rather badly on the Patriots and Ravens victories (I thought Denver would keep it close and Baltimore would dominate…whoops!).
After an up and down regular season in which I needed a furious finish to end up over .500, I couldn’t have started the playoffs out with any more momentum. I nailed all four games last week, and I’m even going to give myself extra credit for making the Giants -3 my lock, since they delivered the most dominant win of the weekend.
Now it’s time to move onto the divisional round.
Well friends, I did not achieve my goal of a season-long winning percentage of over 50%. I finished the year at 115-113-8, a win percentage of 48.7%. My won/loss percentage though was over the .500 line, so at least I kept my head above water from that respect.
There were a few errors in the TV schedule info originally published with this post. The NFL pulled a few last-minute switcheroos with game times. It’s been updated. Also, the Steelers-Browns pick is in.
After two straight 11-5 weeks, which pulled my record over .500, I fell back to Earth a little bit last week, going just 8-8 and missing on my lock pick of Atlanta covering the 6.5 against New Orleans.
Still, ever since my one week hiatus in Week 13, I am 30-18, so I’m still feeling good and riding a nice wave of momentum.
Update: The late-arriving spreads have arrived! All picks are in.
So maybe I’m the Tim Tebow of picking games?
Obviously this is a ridiculous analogy, because the pious Tebow surely would never indulge in such hedonistic pursuits as gambling or, in my case, analyzing spreads and picking games for sport with no monetary investment.
But the evidence of my Tebowness as a handicapper is building.
Update: All spreads and picks are in!
Yes, I took a one week hiatus in Week 13. There were a couple of reasons for this.
First, I was crazy busy. It got late in the week, I realized I hadn’t done the picks column yet, and I panicked. I know that many of you read this column religiously every week, and I appreciate it more than I can express. If I couldn’t get to it, I wanted to make sure someone did; and I see Kurt’s weekly NFL picks pop up in my Facebook feed every week, so I figured why not him?
Update: All but one of the spreads are in now. Post updated with the late-addition spreads and my picks.
Damnit.
Another subpar week (4-7-2) has me at 72-78-7 for the season, a winning percentage of 45.9%. That just sucks. We all figured this season would be a bit unpredictable because of the lockout, and certainly it has been (the 49ers are 9-1!!!), but I never thought I’d struggle this much.
It’s time for a strong finish down the stretch, beginning with this week’s Thanksgiving Day games.
[Editor's note: Spreads for the Monday night games have been added and picks posted.]
For the third straight year, our weekly NFL coverage will include a Bettor’s Guide and a Viewer’s Guide to get you ready for that week’s action in the National. Football. LEAGUE.
In the Bettor’s Guide, normally posted on Tuesdays, we run down the point spreads and over-unders for each game, and I give my against-the-spread picks. The Viewer’s Guide, typically posted on Wednesdays, runs down the TV listings and announcer assignments for each game.
And for those of you wondering whether you should pay attention to my picks, I’ve been relatively successful the last two years since I started doing this post every week. In 2009, I was somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 games over .500 for the season. Last year, I went 131-103-8.
Longtime readers of MSF know that I never wager money on sporting events, but I do enjoy the challenge of picking games against Vegas spreads. My methodology is simple: I get the earliest spreads during the week and post my initial gut reaction. That’s it. And as my records show, it’s been a successful strategy.
Update 11/5: The final spread and pick has been posted.
Update 11/3: Two more spreads have been posted. Picks updated.
I have now officially hit a midseason lull.
You all know that my goal every week is to be above .500. I figure if I can consistently be above .500, and sprinkle in a few really good weeks, it will lead to strong overall record against the spread for the season.
That all went well through the first six weeks of the season as I stormed out to 18 games over .500 with nary a sub-.500 week in sight. But over the last two weeks I’ve gone 6-7 twice, making my overall record 62-46-5.
That’s still pretty good halfway through the season, but that strong start has raised my own expectations. I feel like I’m due for a breakout week in Week 9. Time to make it happen.
Update: The NFL Week 17 TV schedule, point spreads, and picks post is up.
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Update 12/19: All spreads and picks have been entered below except for the Jets-Falcons game, which still is not on the board.
I am now officially treading water.
After going .500 during Weeks 13 (9-7) and Week 14 (7-9) I currently sit at 7-8 heading into tonight’s Cardinals-49ers matchup on Monday Night Football (I have Arizona -3). So while I’m still 23 games over .500 for the year (111-88), I don’t like this feeling that I’m limping towards the finish line.
Of course, when one of the games I missed was taking the Steelers (-10) over the Browns, and then the Browns actually won, I guess I can’t be too upset. Josh Cribbs was right when he said that fans would pretty forgive everything if the team beat the Steelers.
I, however, do not have one game Super Bowls that I can count on. My goal is to get to at least 30 games .500 by the end of Week 17. That means I need a good showing this week.
Let’s roll through the Week 15 TV schedule, point spreads, and picks.
Update: The NFL Week 17 TV schedule, point spreads, and picks post is up.
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Well, things were not looking so good for me at about 4:15 today.
After my stellar comeback performance in Week 11, I “shot” out of the gates with a 4-6 record during the early games.
Fortunately, I had much better luck (and believe me, I understand how much luck is involved picking NFL games successfully) in the afternoon, nailing all four games plus the Sunday nighter.
This left me at a very respectable 9-6 for the week (87-64 overall) heading into Monday night.
For those of you planning to celebrate Thanksgiving weekend with some NFL wagering, hopefully I can lead you in the right direction again. There are plenty of division matchups this weekend, which are always difficult to predict, so we’ll see if I can keep up my .576 winning percentage.
Update: The NFL Week 17 TV schedule, point spreads, and picks post is up.
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After having my first sub-.500 spread picking week in Week 6, I was able to bounce back in Week 7.
Coming into tonight’s Monday Nighter between the Redskins and Eagles (I took the Eagles -7.5, which is looking good so far) I was sitting at 7-4 for the week and 56-41 overall. The overall total could be a game or two off, but pretty solid regardless.
[Update: 8-4 for the week and 57-41 overall thanks to the Eagles' 10-point W.]
Looking ahead to Week 8, we have another week with six teams on bye. However, unlike Week 7, the schedule is filled with solid games: Denver-Baltimore, Giants-Eagles, Dolphins-Jets, Falcons-Saints.
Oh yeah, and Vikings-Packers…the return of Brett Favre to Lambeau Field.
Update: The NFL Week 17 TV schedule, point spreads, and picks post is up.
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As I post this while getting ready for the Monday battle between Denver and San Diego, I am hoping the Chargers can prove me right and cover the 3.5 spread. If they do, it would allow me to sneak through a pretty forgettable Week 6 with a 7-6 record. (Update: Well, they didn’t, so I went 6-7. Awesome.)
Otherwise, I’ll have my first sub-.500 week of the season.
I’m still sitting a 49-36 heading into tonight’s game, so at worst I’ll be 12 games up, and I guess that’s no so bad. (Update: Current record: 49-37.)
But as we always do on Monday nights here at MSF, it’s time to look forward to next week. Hence, here we are with our usual look at next week’s TV schedule and point spreads, plus spread picks for each game.
And Myles and I will be here later in the week with the 4th and Short Podcast, where we discuss and pick the most compelling games on the schedule. So bookmark this page and come back, or be on the lookout Wednesday night/Thursday morning on the homepage.
Update: The NFL Week 17 TV schedule, point spreads, and picks post is up.
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Week 5 was not so stellar for me from a fantasy perspective, but on the bright side the Browns actually got a W and the Dolphins are up 10-7 on the Jets right now as I write this.
Plus, I dominated against the spread last week: 9-4 (with the updated Monday night result). That makes me 43-31 against the spread on the season, meaning I would have to totally pull a chiefsramsraiderstitansbucs two weeks in a row to fall below .500.
This week features a few very interesting games, most notably an undefeated showdown between the 4-0 Saints and 5-0 Giants. Unfortunately, it’s a 1:00 game. The Vikings and Ravens also matchup at 1:00.
In primetime, we get a pretty intriguing matchup between 3-1 Atlanta and 3-1 Chicago, and then it’s Broncos-Chargers on Monday night. The early spread for that game was very surprising, at least to me.
Who am I picking? Read on for the NFL Week Six picks, point spreads, and TV schedule.
