But perhaps not as many as you think.

Patriots-Giants “Rematch”?

In total, of the 106 players on the active rosters for the Giants and Patriots in Super XLII, only 23 are with the same team today. So while many are calling this game a rematch, only about 22% of the players who will decide Super Bowl XLVI are returning players from the first Super Bowl meeting. For 83 players, this is a brand new Super Bowl and the 2008 game has little, if any, meaning to them.

Head coaches Bill Belichick and Tom Coughlin are still leading their teams.

QBs Tom Brady and Eli Manning are back facing each other in round 2 of their epic Super Bowl battle, which began in 2008 in Glendale, Arizona with the Giants and Manning upsetting the heavily favored and undefeated Patriots 17-14.

Giants RBs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw return for an encore as well, while Wes Welker revisits for New England. Welker caught 11 balls for 103 yards in the 2008 game; Jacobs and Bradshaw combined for 87 rushing yards.

Of the four players who scored touchdowns in their first Super Bowl meeting, only one, Plaxico Burress, is still in the NFL. Pats RB Laurence Maroney, WR Randy Moss, and the Giants WR David Tyree are all retired. Tyree’s famous helmet catch in that game, ironically, was his last catch ever as a player.

The tight ends have, notably, been replaced. The Patriots have the TD-machine duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez while the Giants new face is Jake Ballard.

The offensive line for the Giants has three of their five linemen still protecting Manning, while the Patriots have two from 2008 still keeping Brady upright.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Giants key to their win in 2008 was pressure from its defensive front four led by Michael Strahan. Less Strahan, the 2011 Giants still feature an explosive attack with Justin Tuck and Osi Umeniyora returning for another crack at Brady, plus Jason Pierre-Paul and his 16-1/2 regular season sacks.

The Patriots return run stopper Vince Wilfork but are not nearly the same line from 2008 without Richard Seymour or Ty Warren.

The linebackers for both teams are all new, with the exception of the Giants’ Mathias Kiwanuka. None of the Patriots’ secondary, starters or reserves, from the 2008 team is now with the team, while the Giants’ Aaron Ross and Corey Webster are holdovers from the 2008 champion Giants.

Both FG kickers are still booting for their teams with the Giants’ Lawrence Tynes and Patriots’ Stephen Gostkowski possibly providing a historic kick in Indianapolis.

Super Bowl 46 Keys To Victory

The keys to Patriots-Giants Part 2 will be:

1. Pressure on Tom Brady

Will Tom Brady have enough time in the pocket to make his reads and complete the short to medium routes, or if he will be hurried and forced from the pocket, disrupting his rhythm? Harassing Brady worked effectively in the first Super Bowl game and enabled the Giants to stay in the game.

The Giants defense improved late in the season and played with renewed intensity in their three playoff wins. However, the Giants did rank only 25^th in points allowed (25.0) and were 27^th in yards allowed with 6,022.

2. Can New England’s maligned defense slow Eli Manning?

New England’s defense, which ranked 31^st (Packers were 32^nd) out of all 32 teams in yards allowed, ranked a respectable 15^th in points per game allowed (21.4).

Eli Manning has four more seasons under his belt and is now the unquestioned leader of the Giants offense and a big-time threat with a diverse passing attack. All signs point to Manning having a big game versus the defensively challenged Patriots.

3. Turnovers

Turnovers are always a key to victory, and both teams excel at turning the ball over. New England has a +17 turnover ratio coming into the game while the Giants are a +7.

4. Coaches

Can Belichick devise a game plan to stop the Giants’ potent offense while figuring out a way to score more than the 14 points from the first meeting?

How will Coughlin alter course from his 2008 focus on rushing the ball and clock management?

Look for the Patriots not to blitz as much as they did in the first meeting, instead allowing an improving linebacker corps to drop back into coverage. The Giants will continue to apply pressure only from their front four and offensively will take more chances with their aerial attack.

Super Bowl 46 Prediction

All signs (except Vegas’ New England -3 line) point to a New York win in convincing fashion.

I just don’t see how New England will be able to keep scoring with a Giants defense that will stop drives periodically. It’s hard to see Manning and company being slowed down by the Patriots defense.

This, oddly enough, is exactly why I now get the feeling New England somehow pulls this game out and exacts revenge from their 2008 loss.

Super Bowl Prediction: New England Patriots 31 | New York Giants 28

Super Bowl 46 Poll

Now it’s your turn.

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Super Bowl 46: New York Giants v New England Patriots Game Info

• Super Bowl 46 Date: Sunday, February 5th
• Super Bowl 46 Time: 6:20 ET
• Super Bowl 46 TV: NBC
• Super Bowl 46 Announcers: Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth
• Super Bowl 46 Point Spread: Patriots -3
• Super Bowl 46 Over-Under: 55

The Bills were seeking revenge, but they didn’t get it as the Cowboys rolled over them in another lopsided big win. It was basically a repeat of the previous year, 1993, that the Cowboys won, 52-17.

Unfortunately, both Super Bowls were not close and provided very little drama.

The Bills-Cowboys Super Bowls were the only ones to have been a do-over from the year before.

There have been few Super Bowl re-matches. Besides Buffalo versus Dallas in Super Bowls XXVII and XXVIII, there really was only one other re-match that mattered, Dallas vs. Pittsburgh in 1979 in Super Bowl XIII.

Though this game was not a repeat of the previous year’s Super Bowl, it was still a rematch. Pittsburgh got the best of Dallas three years earlier in Super Bowl X, 21-17.

In 1979, both teams returned with many of their biggest contributors from years gone by. For the Steelers, there was Mean Joe Greene, Rocky Bleier, Lynn Swann, Franco Harris, and Terry Bradshaw; for the Cowboys, there was Roger Staubach, Randy White, Ed Too Tall Jones and Drew Pearson, just to name a few. Both head coaches, Chuck Noll and Tom Landry, were already icons of their time.

In another tight one, the Steelers nicked the Cowboys by four points again, 35-31. The game is most remembered for Hall Of Famer tight-end Jackie Smith’s touchdown drop in the endzone that could have tied the game and may have sent it to overtime (Smith was used as only a blocking tight end in his last season and didn’t catch any passes).

Dallas and Pittsburgh played one other time, 17 years later and Dallas finally got its revenge. The Triplets, Emmitt Smith, Troy Aikman and Michael Irvin, along with the rest of the Cowboys and head coach Barry Switzer tried to make-up for the Super Bowl losses and were able to put away the Steelers, 27-17.

The potential Giants versus Patriots rematch of 2012 would also bring back familiar names, starting with Tom Brady and Eli Manning. The Giants still have their duo of running backs and a few other players from the lines (defensive and offensive), as do the Patriots, but this would only be called a rematch because of the starting quarterbacks, head coaches, and what the Giants were able to do to the Patriots the first go-round, by taking away their undefeated season.

Image source: FTRSports.com

They did it in dramatic fashion with the famous play in which Manning avoided the sack and threw downfield to wide receiver David Tyree, who caught a first down on the go-ahead last drive by clasping the ball to his helmet while being defended in the most difficult of circumstances.

There have been other repeat Super Bowls, such as Miami versus Washington and San Francisco versus Cincinnati, but neither were played in years where the teams would have had players competing from both of their Super Bowl appearances.

Though both teams still have hurdles to clear this weekend, many people have a Patriots-Giants rematch already in the backs of their minds, with questions abounding.

Firstly, will it happen? Then, what will be the revenge factor for the Patriots?

Will the Giants be able to overcome the odds again and turn away the great head coach Bill Belichick as he tries to motivate and steer his team to overcome what happened four years ago?

Can this game be as memorable as the last one?

Seems unlikely, unless there’s overtime. In 45 games, no Super Bowl has experienced overtime.

Overtime is overdue.

Prediction (if it happens): Giants 34-Patriots 31.

**********

Howard Alperin is Managing Editor of AmericanizeSoccer.com

That’s right: just one.

Tom Brady?  Nope, not the sure-fire first ballot Hall of Famer.

Ray Rice?  Sort of, but that’s not the answer.

Joe Flacco?

Bill Belichick?

John Harbaugh?

No. No. No.

Actually, the most important person in deciding who will advance to represent the American Football Conference in Super Bowl XLVI is none other than the gentleman who holds the worst all-time record of any “non-interim” head coach in NFL history: Baltimore Offensive Coordinator Malcolm “call me Cam” Cameron.

Image credit: Rob Carr/Getty Images via B/R

Here’s the issue:

Baltimore is a balanced team that is working on all cylinders when, and only when, Ray Rice is working up a heavy lather.  They control the clock. Joe Flacco becomes efficient and effective. Their defense, which has a couple of aging stars, gets plenty of time on the sidelines resting up.

The problem is that, in a nutshell, Cam Cameron panics almost immediately when things don’t go according to plan.

Let’s look at the numbers.

In the Ravens’ 12 wins during the regular season, Baltimore had great balance and emphasized an effective running game.  They passed 386 times in these 12 games (32/game), while running 404 times (almost 34/game).  They passed on 48.9% of their plays.  On the flip side (you may want to sit down), they only ran 55 times (14/game) while throwing almost 40 times per game (158 total) in their four losses.

Even Andy Reid would blush at a 74% passing ratio.

Enter this week’s opponent, the Patriots.

We know two things about New England.  First, Tom Brady is one of the best quarterbacks ever to play the game.  His offense has been virtually unstoppable this season, averaging over 32 points per game.  They only scored less than 30 points four times all season, never less than 20.  So, you can insert your favorite Dan Patrick quote here and be reasonably comfortable that the Patriots will put some points on the board.

Next, while New England is abhorrent on defense with the 31^st ranked defense, their specific weakness is against the pass, as they give up almost 300 yards per game through the air.

This is clearly a dangerous combination.

You have a Baltimore offensive coordinator who panics, is going to have to score some points and may even fall behind, and they are playing against a team that is easy pickings through the air.  I can already see Cameron abandoning his gameplan after the Pats take the opening kickoff 80 yards in 7 minutes for an opening drive TD.

That combination of a deficit and the fool’s gold that is the Patriots’ secondary will be way too much for a guy with a quick gag reflex to avoid.

On behalf of Raven fans and Patriot haters throughout the land, let me scream at the top of my lungs: “Don’t do it, Cam!” 

Stay with the plan.  Baltimore can win this game.  If they are who we think they are (thank you Dennis Green), they can run the ball 35-40 times, hold the ball for 35 minutes, and have their defense make just enough plays to, er, contain the Patriots.

John Harbaugh should be preaching patience to his underling all week long. He should probably wire him with some sort of contraption to fry him with a mini-lobotomy any time he passes twice in a row.

Oh, and one more thing, Mr. Harbaugh: just to be on the safe side, take the ball if you win the toss.

Follow Brian Dilsheimer on Twitter @Dils_Ignite

Tonight your NFC North experts Drew Lange, Tyler Juranovich, Chris Callaway, and myself will talk about the upsets last week (even if we’d rather just forget a horrible loss) and preview this weekend’s upcoming Conference Championship games.

Here are the details:

• Date: Friday, January 20th
• Time: 4:30 CT (5:30 ET)
• Call-in number: (858) 365-5571 (also use this number to listen to the show anywhere right from your phone)
• Link: http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/nfc-north-report

Tentative Show schedule:

• Warm Welcome – We need it. It’s freezing here!
• Giants upset over Packers – Amanda and Chris share their final thoughts
• Other game analysis
• AFC Championship – Ravens vs Patriots
• NFC Championship – Giants vs 49ers
• Super Bowl Prediction
• Plus random shenanigans throughout

Oh and we WILL be having a discussion about Tyler’s piece on the Jay Cutler Era. Don’t worry Cheeseheads, it will be all right.

Amanda...during happier times

That is, how much of a distraction did the events involving the tragic loss of Offensive Coordinator Joe Philbin’s son play into preparing for the Divisional Playoff?

If there was, no one in the Packers organization is going to dare admit it, which would be well played. For anyone on the Green Bay payroll to suggest as such would serve as a disrespect to the Giants and even a trivialization of the tragedy.

The Packers did not just lose. They had their faces stomped on with a hob-nailed boot. As recently as a few days ago, writers were still debating whether the 2011 Packers should be ranked as the best team in franchise history.

First off, the team actually had to repeat as World Champions before even presenting such an argument. Also it is impossible to compare apples to oranges – or this year’s team to a 1960’s Lombardi era team.

But even before Sunday I was having a hard time convincing myself that a team that finished a dead-last 32^nd in total defense could be the franchise’s best team ever, 15-1 regular season record or not.

Credit the Giants for making that conversation mute for good.

It was figured that the worst case scenario was that the Giants would light up Green Bay’s D again, but that Aaron Rodgers and company would keep pace and the game would be a high-scoring shootout decided in the final minutes.

Except it didn’t turn out that way.

The Packers’ offense came out flat with their worst performance of the season at obviously the wrong time. Aaron Rodgers finished the game with a season-low 78.5 QB rating. Obviously his rusty receivers didn’t help his cause. Jermichael Finley (whose stock clearly dropped this year) dropped several passes, Randall Cobb nearly fumbled on a kickoff return, Greg Jennings DID fumble following a reception (despite Instant Replay not reversing the call). The Packers came away a -3 in turnover differential; the team made more than enough miscues to lose the game to a talented and well-coached opposition.

And then there was the failed on-side kick attempt early in the second quarter, which screamed of a team in desperation and sent a message that the brain-trust didn’t figure they could beat Big Blue straight up. The well-disciplined Giants held their water and recovered, and Green Bay was fortunate that it didn’t result in points.

There was not one moment following the opening kickoff that I felt good about Green Bay’s chances, but I held hope when it appeared they would head into the locker room down only 13-10. To be only down by three, and receiving second half kickoff, after playing terrible in the first half – there was plenty of reason for hope.

That was before (1) failing to tackle Ahmad Bradshaw before he got out of bounds, and then (2) the Hail Mary.

Hakeem Nicks had his defender boxed out, and in all there were three Giants players to the Packers two. As the ball was still in the air, I knew what the result was going to be. Never has a Hail Mary been converted so easily. That little two play sequence was not just on the defense (two of them currently appearing in State Farm spots) but the coaching staff as well – a psychological as well as physical dagger.

Then there was Rodgers getting sacked on fourth and five with the score still just 20-13 early in the fourth – and suddenly a punt into the end zone didn’t seem so bad compared to the Giants getting it at the 45, bleeding clock and eventually scoring a FG.

When the Pack turned it over yet again on the next series deep in their own territory, the culmination of mistakes officially became un-survivable.

But going back to the rust the team showed, and the possible distraction leading up to the game in light of the Philbin situation. There is one prior parallel we can go back on, the 2005 Indianapolis Colts.

Like this year’s Packers, the ’05 Colts won their first 13 games and clinched the #1 seed in the AFC, and the debate became would Tony Dungy’s team elect to chase a 16-0 record, or rest Peyton Manning and many of the team’s other starters.

Playing all of the regulars, the Colts lost at home in Week 15 to the San Diego Chargers, which broke up the perfect season and made Dungy’s decision to rest Manning and others somewhat easier.

But on December 22, 2005, the Colts organization and the rest of the NFL fraternity was shaken by the news that Tony Dungy’s 18-year old son had been found dead in a Tampa, FL apartment. Dungy immediately left the team and then-assistant Jim Caldwell assumed the team’s coaching duties for the Week 16 game in Seattle.

The Colts lost that game, then Dungy returned for the team’s Week 17 game at home v. Arizona, which the Colts won to finish 14-2. Peyton Manning only played sparingly in both games.

But then came Indy’s home divisional playoff game versus the sixth-seeded (and eventual Super Bowl champion) Pittsburgh Steelers, where the Colts fell behind 21-3 and a late rally fell short in a 21-18 loss. That was the game best remembered for the Jerome Bettis fumble and Ben Roethlisberger saving the ensuing return from going for a touchdown, and then Mike Vanderjagt becoming the convenient scapegoat after missing a potential game-tying field goal.

The similarities between the ’05 Colts and ’11 Packers are obvious. Both chased the possibility of a 16-0 record much of the season. Both endured a horrible tragedy involving a coaching staff member late in the year. Both teams were in position to rest starters in Weeks 16/17 (or in the Packers case Week 17). And both came up flat and were one and done at home against an opposition riding a wave of momentum – and it will not surprise me at all if the ’11 Giants follow the path of the ’05 Steelers/’07 Giants/’10 Packers and win it all.

How much does the blame go on rust and how much on the obvious distraction that put the game of football in its proper perspective?

Probably a combination of both, in both cases.

I don’t question Mike McCarthy’s decision to keep Aaron Rodgers on ice for Week 17. Matt Flynn deserved an audition, and it was also a classic damned if you do/damedn if you don’t dilemma. What if Rodgers plays two series and got hurt? The second-guessing would be ten-fold what it is now.

And Joe Philbin found a need to return to the press box for the Division Playoff, citing the fact that his team is his family too. I’m sure that it in a small way it also serves to begin the healing process, as painful as it may be. It would have been even more painful for Philbin to be at home helplessly watching on TV.

Fact is, last year’s Packers peaked at the right time, while this year’s squad slowly became flawed and their weaknesses more apparent towards the end of the campaign.  What looked like an odds-on bet to repeat for most of the season became anything but.

The good news is that the Packers window is far from closed. Aaron Rodgers is at the peak of his career. The team knows what needs to be addressed in the draft: offensive line, featured running back, defense, secondary in particular. And Nick Collins’ injury way back in Week 2 proved huge.

What concerns me more is the Pack’s recent playoff record at home, now losing four of their last six. Lambeau Field is supposed to be as intimidating as any venue, especially at playoff time. Before 2002 the franchise had never lost at home, now they have lost four of their last six. Remember Michael Vick in the snow? Randy Moss and the moon? And now the Giants twice. The only two wins have been versus Seattle, the Al Harris interception after the ’03 season, and the divisional playoff win four years later.

As has been seen with other recent contenders such as the Colts, Steelers, Patriots, etc., not everything breaks right – especially with 11 other teams in the playoffs.

The timing of the Philbin family tragedy did hurt, but this team still isn’t far off – there will be other chances.

So for the playoffs so far I am 6-2, coming on the heels of my 115-113-8 and regular season. Like the Giants, I finished the regular season with a fury to get over .500 and have carried that momentum into the playoffs. Can I do it for one more week leading up to the Super Bowl?

I haven’t looked at the spreads yet as I type this. I anticipate both games being difficult to predict.

The 49ers are at home, where they beat the Giants earlier this year in a very competitive game. But New York is playing much better now, and I don’t like the idea of a team have to beat another team twice. With no stats to back this up, it seems like playoff rematches go to the team that lost the first team (and this seems especially true with the Giants of the last decase).

As for the Ravens and Patriots, we know New England will put up points. Can Joe Flacco do enough to keep it close? Doubtful, but the pick will depend on just how many points the Pats are giving.

As always:

• All times are ET.
• Spreads are as of Monday morning.
• Announcer info via Fang’s Bites.
• If you want updated spread info, visit our friends at DocSports: NFL Playoffs Odds and Lines

Bettor’s Guide: NFL Playoffs Conference Championships

NFC: New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

AFC: Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

Picks – Point Spreads – Over-Unders – TV Schedule

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Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

• Ravens-Patriots Date: Sunday, January 22nd
• Ravens-Patriots Time: 3:00 ET
• Ravens-Patriots TV: CBS
• Ravens-Patriots Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms (with Steve Tasker)
• Ravens-Patriots Point Spread: Patriots -7.5
• Ravens-Patriots Over-Under: 50.5

Ravens-Patriots Spread Pick:

I didn’t follow the Ravens-Texans game all that closely through the first 3 quarters yesterday. Around the start of the 4th quarter I tweeted out that it sounded like Houston was outplaying Baltimore despite the score. Every tweet I received in reply agreed.

While Houston is a good team with a great running back, Baltimore should have been able to dispatch of a T.J. Yates-led team with far more ease if they are thinking about going into New England and winning. I just don’t see.

Baltimore’s defense is very good, but not the dominant unit it once was, and New England’s defense seems to be buoyed by the return to health of some key players; and we know how powerful Brady’s connection with his tight ends has become.

If this game was in Baltimore, where the Ravens always play with an extra bounce in their step, I’d consider taking the points. In New England, with Brady and the Pats looking as locked in as they do, I think I’d lay a couple of touchdowns, which makes a little more than one an easy decision.

• Ravens-Patriots spread pick: Patriots -7.5

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

• Giants-49ers Date: Sunday, January 22nd
• Giants-49ers Time: 6:30 ET
• Giants-49ers TV: FOX
• Giants-49ers Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman (with Pam Oliver and Chris Myers)
• Giants-49ers Point Spread: 49ers -2.5
• Giants-49ers Over-Under: 43

Giants-49ers Spread Pick:

My heart says San Francisco, and there was a certain “Team of Destiny” feeling to that improbable win over the Saints, but it is very hard to pick against the Giants seeing how they’ve played over the last month and remembering what they did back in January and February of 2008.

With so many key components of that improbable run back for this one – most notably the coach and QB and the dominant defensive line – the Giants have a Super Bowl look about them. Plus, New York almost beat San Francisco at Candlestick earlier this year. While San Fran has continued to play at a high level, the Giants now seem appreciably better, which could help bridge the gap that kept New York from winning last time.

I hope I’m wrong; I hope Jim Harbaugh, Alex Smith and Co have enough magic to continue this amazing and unexpected ride, but the Giants have been here before and have an elite QB who has become easy to trust. I’d take New York if it was a pick ‘em, so give me the points.

• Giants-49ers spread pick: Giants +2.5

What are your picks? Chime in below.

So much for the Green Bay dynasty; as former GM Ron Wolf would say, the 2011 Packers proved to be just a fart in the wind.

Deal with it.

The silver lining is that I personally do not have to deal with torn allegiances next weekend. You see, I jumped on the San Francisco 49ers bandwagon during the Bill Walsh/Joe Montana era – yes, people tend to jump on bandwagons of franchises that get good. During the 1990’s/early 2000’s I watched with mixed emotions as the Packers/49ers met four times in the NFC playoffs, with the Niners only win coming in the 1998 Wild Card Game now also known as ‘The Catch II’ and also ‘Jerry Rice Fumbled’.

I was hoping that the Packers and Niners would renew their playoff history at Lambeau Field this Sunday night, but that is not the case. Instead, the venerable post-season version of Candlestick Park, dressed up with painted end zones and number markers outlined in red, makes an encore appearance following the Instant Classic win Saturday over the New Orleans Saints.

It has been too long since the Giants and 49ers last met in another memorable playoff encounter following the 2002 season.

The NFC Championship also features Eli Manning and Alex Smith, the number one overall picks of the 2004 and 2005 NFL Draft. Both QB’s have taken separate and somewhat bumpy roads to get to this game.

ELI MANNING

It is amazing to think that Eli actually just celebrated his 31^st birthday, as his career still seems to be on an upswing. He also is just two wins away from collecting a second Super Bowl trophy and one-upping his older, more-publicized brother.

To be honest, I have not been totally on the Eli Manning train based on the events leading up to the 2004 NFL Draft. As many remember, that was the draft of Eli, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger, and all three have all gone on to enormous success in the league.

Eli was projected to be the #1 overall pick by the San Diego Chargers until Eli (backed by Archie/Peyton) announced that he would not play for San Diego if selected. That led to an awkward scene where Eli was selected by the Chargers and posed with a Chargers jersey on the podium before being dealt to the New York Giants for Philip Rivers (and two draft picks) less than an hour later.

As a Chargers fan, I lost some respect for the Manning family during this process. Truth is, there were legitimate reasons for the Manning camp to go in that direction that are now validated. First, there is the Chargers front office, which was a mess then and is a mess now. Also, the Mannings weren’t nuts about potentially being both be in the same conference, where they would had faced each other more often and possibly in the playoffs.

Rivers has done well in his career, though to little fault of his own he has been unable to collect the Super Bowl hardware that Eli owns. By ending up in New York, Eli Manning put himself under much more scrutiny than he ever would have in the 6-1-9 area code – no doubt Eli threw himself into the fire of the New York fan base and media.

Eli was not the instant success his brother was in Indianapolis. In his rookie year Eli completed less than 50 percent of his passes. Eli did not have a QB rating over 80 or a completion percentage over 60 until the 2008 season, one year after leading the Giants to their Super Bowl 42 victory. 2011 has become the year where Eli has become Elite, passing for 4,933 yards – normally a mammoth total except in a year when Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Matthew Stafford all went over the 5,000 yard mark and Aaron Rodgers recorded a record QB rating of 122.5.

Safe to say Eli continues to trend upward while another New York-based QB continues to regress (my lips are sealed but his name is Mark Sanchez). And I have to admit to being wrong in holding Eli’s strategic maneuvering away from the Chargers in ’04 against him. In fact I admire the way Eli has rolled his own way and has taken a different path to stardom than his brother. The Giants are traditionally much more of a balanced offense than Peyton Manning’s Colts. It has taken time for Eli to be given the offensive weapons (Hakeem Nicks/Victor Cruz). In time the Giants became as feared offensively through the air as on the ground.

And now Eli owns two playoff wins in Lambeau Field, and this one cannot be blamed on Brett Favre.

ALEX SMITH

Long before Tim Tebow, Alex Smith was the master of running Urban Meyer’s offense in leading the University of Utah to an undefeated season in 2004, throwing 32 TD’s versus just four interceptions. Along with Aaron Rodgers, Smith was considered the best QB prospect in the 2005 draft. Alex eventually emerged as the safer pick as the #1 overall selection over the player who was just across the Bay at Cal-Berkeley. Rodgers was thought of as an unfinished prospect who may not develop more. In fact, Rodgers was just a few years removed from not being recruited AT ALL out of high school. Meanwhile Smith excelled in the pre-draft process with above-average speed (4.7) and scored 40 on the Wonderlic exam.

Alex Smith ultimately became the first pick of the ’05 Draft while Aaron Rodgers’ stock slipped to the point where the debate became whether he or Jason Campbell should be the second QB selected. Rodgers fell all the way to the Packers 25^th overall pick while Campbell was selected by the Washington Redskins at #26.

Until this season, Smith was linked more with infamous draft failures such as JaMarcus Russell and Ryan Leaf. In his third season (2007), Alex’s completion percentage regressed below the 50 percent level. Eventually Smith wound up battling Shaun Hill (2008-09) and Troy Smith (2010) for the starting job and was no longer being looked at as the Niners’ long-term answer.

It was not until Jim Harbaugh’s arrival this year when Smith finally found his comfort zone and the franchise in general turned its fortunes around with a 13-3 season and first playoff appearance in nine years. Still, Alex could not escape the comparisons to Aaron Rodgers and his MVP/record-breaking season in Green Bay.  Alex finished ninth this year in QB rating, above such names as Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers. However Smith finished with much less gaudy volume numbers, throwing only 445 times (to Eli Manning’s 589, for comparison).

Vindication came in the divisional playoff game versus New Orleans. Much of the game was not pretty, and Michael Crabtree dropping several passes didn’t help. But all that will be remembered from that game now is the final three minutes in the dwindling twilight at Candlestick, about the same time of day where Montana to Dwight Clark  struck three decades ago.

First came Alex’s bootleg to put San Fran up 29-28, and then the winning TD strike to Vernon Davis with :09 left, eerily similar to Steve Young to Terrell Owens to the same end zone 13 years earlier.

Ultimately, Alex Smith had proven himself clutch in a high-stress situation much like Joe Montana and Young had done a generation earlier.

So Alex Smith finally gets one over Aaron Rodgers; he will be playing this weekend – while Aaron will have to live on in endless State Farm spots.

But a fellow member of the #1 overall fraternity will be waiting on the opposing sideline this weekend.

And one will get to Super Bowl 46, but only one…

In today’s first game, Houston will attempt to reach the AFC Championship Game against New England…but they’ll have to beat Ray Lewis, Ray Rice, and the mighty Ravens in their home stadium where the defense typically balls so hard.

Here is all the basic info you need to know, what MSF’s writers have said about the game this week, and a poll so you can take your pick.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

• Texans-Ravens Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, January 15th at 1:00 ET on CBS
• Texans-Ravens Announcers: Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf
• Texans-Ravens Point Spread: Ravens -9
• Texans-Ravens Over-Under: 35.5

Steve’s Texans-Ravens Prediction

Click to view Steve’s complete Texans-Ravens Preview, posted earlier this morning.

If the Ravens win this game, it will be won by their defense. They have the third ranked defense in the NFL, right behind the Texans who are second. Their main focus will be to limit the production of Arian Foster. They held him to 49 yards on 15 carries last game, but that was with Schaub at quarterback. Now that Yates is back there, the Texans will want to run the ball even more.

Pressuring Yates is the second key for the Ravens’ defense. He is inexperienced, even though he looked very composed last week. The difference is that this game will be in Baltimore, where the Ravens are 8-0 this season. They may have trouble if they have to go on the road next week, if they win, but it is tough to doubt them at home.

• Ravens-Texans Prediction: Ravens 24 | Texans 23

Jerod’s Texans-Ravens Spread Pick

I am tempted to pick the Texans, because they run the ball so well and have a solid defense, but I just can’t do it.

T.J. Yates was fine managing the game against Cincinnati, but facing the Ravens’ defense in Baltimore is a whole different ballgame. The Ravens are rested, and while their defense isn’t what it once was, they can still get after the QB when motivated, at home, in a big game. Just ask San Francisco, which dealt with it on Thanksgiving night.

I think that’s the Ravens’ D we see on Sunday, and it won’t bode well for Yates. Offensively, Joe Flacco and Ray Rice will do enough to make this a relatively smooth victory.

• Texans-Ravens free pick: Ravens -9

Giants-Packers Poll

Who do you think will win?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

And don’t be shy. Defend your pick below in the comment section.

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New York’s furious late-season finish and dominance in the Wild Card Round against Atlanta is generating comparisons to the unlikely Super Bowl winner from a few year’s back. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s dominance over the last calendar year is being somewhat taken for granted, overshadowed by the Giants, Tebow Mania, Tom Brady’s ruthless record-setting, and the perfect football game.

Here is all the basic info you need to know, what MSF’s writers have said about the game this week, and a poll so you can take your pick.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers Game Info

• Saints-49ers Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, January 15th at 4:30 ET on FOX
• Saints-49ers Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman
• Saints-49ers Point Spread: Packers -9
• Saints-49ers Over-Under: 52.5

Chris’ Giants-Packers Prediction

Click to view Chris’ complete Packers-Giants preview, posted earlier this week.

If the Giants are going to have success this weekend, they are going to need to put pressure on Aaron Rodgers. They can’t just blitz the house, because Rodgers will prey on the single coverage in the secondary and light up the scoreboard. New York needs to rely on Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul and Chris Canty up front to not only apply pressure, but also keep Rodgers in the pocket so he can’t makes plays on the run.

On the other side of the ball, the Giants have to prevent turnovers at all costs. The Packers have a penchant for capitalizing on turnovers, but taking care of the ball on offense keeps the ball out of Rodgers’ hands. New York cannot waste possessions, as Green Bay can put up 40 on even the best defenses, and the Giants will need every possible chance to score.

• Giants-Packers Prediction: Packers 35 | Giants 30

Jerod’s Giants-Packers Spread Pick

My gut reaction to the spread is that it’s just too many points. Green Bay is excellent, and they will surely put up more than the two points Atlanta scored on New York – probably 15-20 times over – but I don’t think the Packers’ D has any answer for Eli and his three receivers, plus a now-healthy tandem of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs.

The game they played earlier in the year went down to the wire. Even though the venue is different this time around, I see no reason to think this one won’t go down to the wire too.

• Giants-Packers free pick: Giants +9

Giants-Packers Poll

Who do you think will win?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

And don’t be shy. Defend your pick below in the comment section.

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The early discourse on this game seemed to favor the Saints, but as the week has gone on more and more of the highly-paid and exposed mainstream media types have been coming around on Patrick Willis and the Niners.

Here is all the basic info you need to know, what MSF’s writers have said about the game this week, and a poll so you can take your pick.

New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers Game Info

• Saints-49ers Date, Time, and TV: Saturday, January 14th at 4:30 ET on FOX
• Saints-49ers Announcers: Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, and Tony Siragusa
• Saints-49ers Point Spread: Saints -3.5
• Saints-49ers Over-Under: 47.5

From Sunday: 4 Reasons Why The Saints-49ers Outcome Is Not The Foregone Conclusion Many Seem To Think It Is

Jerod’s Saints-49ers Spread Pick

I wrote about this game yesterday after listening to the ESPN talking heads discuss the Saints as if their ticket to the NFC Title Game has already been punched. It hasn’t.

They have to play away from their precious dome against a team that is 7-1 in their home park and features the best defense in the league. This game is anything but a sure thing, and the spread – the closest of all four games – is indicative of that.

Last year, the Saints won 25-22 in San Francisco on a last second field goal. A lot of the players have changed, of course, but I think this game will be similar. It will be a close, competitive matchup that someone will win by a field goal. Give me San Fran with the home field advantage and the points.

• 49ers-Saints spread pick: 49ers +3.5

Suley’s Saints-49ers Prediction

Click to read Suley’s entire Saints-49ers Preview.

The Saints are 0-4 all-time in road playoff games and with a loss will match the Cincinnati Bengals for the worst road playoff record in NFL history. The 49ers are 18-8 in home playoff games in franchise history. With a win they will match the Dallas Cowboys and Oakland Raiders for the second-most home playoff victories.

The 49ers defense is one of the best in the world and of a class the Saints have not come across this season. The Saints will have more success than most teams against San Francisco, but it won’t be enough.

A healthy Frank Gore and a stingy defense will be the difference maker as the 49ers play their way to the NFC Championship.

• 49ers-Saints Prediction: San Francisco 27 | New Orleans 20

Saints-49ers Poll

Who do you think will win?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

And don’t be shy. Defend your pick below in the comment section.

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Here is all the basic info you need to know, what MSF’s writers have said about the game this week, and a poll so you can take your pick.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots Game Info

• Broncos-Patriots Date, Time, and TV: Saturday, January 14th at 8:00 ET on CBS
• Broncos-Patriots Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms
• Broncos-Patriots Point Spread: Patriots -13.5
• Broncos-Patriots Over-Under: 51

Jerod’s Broncos-Patriots Spread Pick

That’s a big spread, a very big spread, especially to give a team that has not won a playoff game since the AFC Championship game in 2008 and that features an atrocious defense. I know that Tom Brady is really good, and Bill Belichick will surely cook something up on defense to confuse Tim Tebow, but with the confidence Tebow and the Broncos gained against Pittsburgh they are going to come into New England ready to deliver their best shot.

ALL of the pressure is on New England in this game. They’ll probably win it because of Brady, but this isn’t going to be any kind of cakewalk. Not anymore. And with that big of a spread, this is a no-brainer.

• Broncos-Patriots spread pick: Broncos +13.5

Steve’s Broncos-Patriots Prediction

Click to read Steve’s complete Broncos-Patriots Preview

The Pats’ already beat the Broncos this year 41-23, which came in Denver in Week 15. That ended the Broncos’ six game losing streak, but did not keep them out of the playoffs.

This time the game means much more, as it is for a berth in the AFC Championship game.

Tim Tebow will need to build off of his passing game from last week. He threw for 316 yards against a top-ten passing defense, and now he goes up against the Patriots’ 31st ranked pass defense. Even though the Evil Emperor Bill Belicheck hired former Broncos coach Josh McDaniels to be an offensive assistant/spy, the Broncos should be able to rack up a significant amount of yards through the air.

If the Broncos can take care of the ball and not turn it over, there is no reason why they could not win this game. The Patriots defense has not been good all year, and this will show in the game. The Pats’ have lost in the first round in the past two seasons, and I think it will be three. Why not?

• Broncos-Patriots Prediction: Denver 27 | Patriots 24

Broncos-Patriots Poll

Who do you think will win?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

And don’t be shy. Defend your pick below in the comment section.

**********

The Divisional Round often produces the most compelling and memorable moments of the NFL Playoffs. Favorites carrying the weight of the world, or underdogs with nothing to lose and not getting enough respect even after being just one of eight teams out of 32 left.

Jerod offered his spread picks for each game earlier in the week. Now here are my predictions for each game.

NEW ORLEANS (14-3) AT SAN FRANCISCO (13-3)

• 4:30 PM ET, SATURDAY

The seemingly unstoppable Saints have become everyone’s trending darlings within the past month, and the favorites of many to win the next two weeks on the road and advance to Super Bowl 46.

Not so fast.

At home, in the Superdome, the Saints are indeed unstoppable. But how many games has New Orleans won in its franchise history. Try zero, thought it’s not like the Saints had not gotten many chances in the playoffs until the past few years.

The Saints will be as far away from their comfort zone as possible on Saturday against a 49ers team that allowed only 87 points at home all season. The city of New Orleans has always been regarded as an eerie and spooky place, but that holds nothing compared to a late afternoon at Candlestick. Wind, a few transformers blowing, the stadium going dark, or maybe the 50+ year old facility seemingly shaking.

Or maybe the Saints just get freaked out by the city of San Francisco itself, which Ari Kaufman refers to as ‘opulent, ostentatious, arrogant, and sheltered.’ What!!?? I like my BART system. My man Ari has become a Howard Cosell for a new generation.

New Orleans had to deal with this last year and saw their season end against a Seattle team they should had been far superior than. Not to mention they somehow lost to both lowly Tampa Bay and St. Louis on the road this year. This time the road task is much tougher; it’s the best defense of the league that has to be solved.

I do dock the Niners for lack of playoff experience (nine years, but seems even longer) and Frank Gore has to have a much better game than he did during the second half of the season. The O-line has to also stop the Saints’ blitz and keep Alex Smith upright, which was a challenge during a meltdown at Baltimore.

But I’m going to go with the home dog here…

PICK EM PAL!!! Saints-49ers Prediction: San Francisco 27 | New Orleans 24

DENVER (9-8) AT NEW ENGLAND (13-3)

• 8:00 PM ET, SATURDAY

The numerologists had a field day after last Sunday. Tim Tebow 316 yards, 31.6 yards per completion, a 31.6 TV rating during the fourth quarter. Big Ben picked on third and 16. It was a great day for those on the Tebow bandwagon.

But one is only as good as his last game, and Tebow right now remains a double-edged sword – and we’ve already seen Broncos v. Pats, and that was at Mile High. And as far as the Patriots are concerned, I love their road to the Super Bowl, especially since they don’t have to worry about the already-imploded New York Jets.

Maybe you have heard the tale of the man who puts $80 dollars on the #8 horse in the eighth race, then sees the horse finish eighth. Denver’s run comes crashing to a halt and the debate on whether Tebow can take it to the next level can rage until training camp in July.

PICK EM PAL!!!  Patriots-Broncos Prediction: New England 31 | Denver 6

HOUSTON (11-6) AT BALTIMORE (12-4)

• 1:00 PM ET, SUNDAY

The Houston Texans are still a team that most NFL followers are NOT familiar with.  Except for a late-season game on the NFL Network in which they lost, Greg Gumbel/Dan Dierdorf is about as good as it gets for this team getting run.

As was mentioned during the telecast of last week’s Wild Card game, the Texans have been built via the draft, especially this past year. J.J. Watt first round, Brooks Reid second round, and taking a QB named T.J. Yates in Round 5, which turned out in come in real handy. Pro Bowler Brian Cushing was a product of the 2009 draft. Even after losing Mario Williams and Matt Schaub during the season and WR Andre Johnson hobbled, the Texans have remained relevant.

Meanwhile I’m not sold on the Ravens, who I consider as the AFC version of the Atlanta Falcons. QB Joe Flacco is good, like Matt Ryan is ‘good’, but can he be OMG great?? And the team as a whole had too many games that had me guessing whether this is really an elite team and a title contender.

True, this is one of the last kicks of the can for Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, but there is always one result in the postseason that no one figures on and shocks everyone, I’m going to peg this game as one of those. As Bum Phillips said in the day, Houston will be ‘knocking on that door’ again after Arian Foster and Ben Tate grounds-and-pounds the Texans to the AFC Championship Game.

PICK EM PAL!! Texans-Ravens Prediction: Houston 23 | Baltimore 17

NY GIANTS (10-7) AT GREEN BAY (15-1)

• 4:30 PM, SUNDAY

We can talk X’s and O’s all day, but sometimes an off-the-field event ends up throwing all analysis off-kilter. Unfortunately that is the case this week, as Packers Offensive Coordinator Joe Philbin is on an extended leave of absence following the tragic and sudden passing of his son. Needless to say, this has been a surreal week in the Packers organization leading up to a playoff game, with the situation rocking the franchise to its core. Even classy Giants HC Tom Coughlin reached out to offer his condolences to the Packers organization.

How this effects the Packers on the field Sunday is anyone’s guess, but no doubt this is a major distraction in a football sense.

Philbin is not expected to be with the team on Sunday, meaning HC Mike McCarthy has to put a contingency plan in place in regards to the offensive game plan. On the field, there are not a lot of players on either side that werearound four years ago when the Giants shocked Green Bay en route to an eventual NFL title.

What the Giants do have, however, is the very same Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs smash-mouth element, plus the receiving weapons that can put the shaky Packers secondary on it’s heels much like they did in the regular season meeting at the Meadowlands.

Yes, there are much more important things than football, but should the Packers lose don’t expect the team to use the events of this week as an excuse. In the end, I do expect Green Bay to pull one out for their grieving coach and get him back in the coaching booth next Sunday.

PICK EM PAL!!!  Packers-Giants Prediction: Green Bay 33, | NY Giants 27 (OT)

Now it’s time to move onto the divisional round.

This is my favorite weekend of NFL playoff football. There are four games, most of the borderline playoff teams like Cincy and Atlanta have been removed, and the best of the best are all in action. Of course the most anticipated game nationally is Denver-New England, and with good reason, but each game provides its own level of intrigue.

We will have previews of every game later in the week. To kick off our Divisional Round coverage here at MSF, below are the spreads, the TV schedule, and my picks for each of the four games on this week’s schedule.

As always:

• All times are ET.
• Spreads are as of Monday morning.
• Announcer info via Fang’s Bites.
• If you want updated spread info, visit our friends at DocSports: NFL Playoffs Odds and Lines

Bettor’s Guide: NFL Playoffs Divisional Round

Picks – Point Spreads – Over-Unders

Lock of the Week – TV Schedule

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New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers

• Saints-49ers Date, Time, and TV: Saturday, January 14th at 4:30 ET on FOX
• Saints-49ers Announcers: Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, and Tony Siragusa
• Saints-49ers Point Spread: Saints -3.5
• Saints-49ers Over-Under: 47.5
• Saints-49ers Pick: I wrote about this game yesterday after listening to the ESPN talking heads discuss the Saints as if their ticket to the NFC Title Game has already been punched. It hasn’t. They have to play away from their precious dome against a team that is 7-1 in their home park and features the best defense in the league. This game is anything but a sure thing, and the spread – the closest of all four games – is indicative of that. Last year, the Saints won 25-22 in San Francisco on a last second field goal. A lot of the players have changed, of course, but I think this game will be similar. It will be a close, competitive matchup that someone will win by a field goal. Give me San Fran with the home field advantage and the points. 49ers-Saints free pick: 49ers +3.5

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

• Broncos-Patriots Date, Time, and TV: Saturday, January 14th at 8:00 ET on CBS
• Broncos-Patriots Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms
• Broncos-Patriots Point Spread: Patriots -13.5
• Broncos-Patriots Over-Under: 51
• Broncos-Patriots Pick: That’s a big spread, a very big spread, especially to give a team that has not won a playoff game since the AFC Championship game in 2008 and that features an atrocious defense. I know that Tom Brady is really good, and Bill Belichick will surely cook something up on defense to confuse Tim Tebow, but with the confidence Tebow and the Broncos gained against Pittsburgh they are going to come into New England ready to deliver their best shot. ALL of the pressure is on New England in this game. They’ll probably win it because of Brady, but this isn’t going to be any kind of cakewalk. Not anymore. And with that big of a spread, this is a no-brainer. Broncos-Patriots free pick: Broncos +13.5

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

• Texans-Ravens Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, January 15th at 1:00 ET on CBS
• Texans-Ravens Announcers: Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf
• Texans-Ravens Point Spread: Ravens -9
• Texans-Ravens Over-Under: 35.5
• Texans-Ravens Pick: I am tempted to pick the Texans, because they run the ball so well and have a solid defense, but I just can’t do it. T.J. Yates was fine managing the game against Cincinnati, but facing the Ravens’ defense in Baltimore is a whole different ballgame. The Ravens are rested, and while their defense isn’t what it once was, they can still get after the QB when motivated, at home, in a big game. Just ask San Francisco, which dealt with it on Thanksgiving night. I think that’s the Ravens’ D we see on Sunday, and it won’t bode well for Yates. Offensively, Joe Flacco and Ray Rice will do enough to make this a relatively smooth victory. Texans-Ravens free pick: Ravens -9

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

• Saints-49ers Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, January 15th at 4:30 ET on FOX
• Saints-49ers Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman
• Saints-49ers Point Spread: Packers -9
• Saints-49ers Over-Under: 52.5
• Saints-49ers Pick: My gut reaction to the spread is that it’s just too many points. Green Bay is excellent, and they will surely put up more than the two points Atlanta scored on New York – probably 15-20 times over – but I don’t think the Packers’ D has any answer for Eli and his three receivers, plus a now-healthy tandem of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. The game they played earlier in the year went down to the wire. Even though the venue is different this time around, I see no reason to think this one won’t go down to the wire too. Giants-Packers free pick: Giants +9

Lock of the Week: Divisional Round Edition

It’s really tough picking a lock this week. My first instinct is to go with the Broncos +13.5 simply because that is so many points, but I don’t know that I trust the Broncos’ defense enough to do that. If the Patriots hang 35-40 points on Denver, a very real possibility, they may be able to cover. I don’t think that’ll happen, but it does make me lean towards the Giants keeping it within nine points of Green Bay.

The Packers haven’t been overly impressive their last few times out. They’ve been very good, don’t get me wrong, but not great like they were as they were mowing down opponents left and right. Frankly, the Giants have been more impressive the last few weeks, which should lead to an excellent game in Green Bay. I’ll take the Giants as my lock again, this time getting 9 points against a Green Bay team they already came thisclose to beating.

(Side note: and if the battle-tested Giants win today, we may want to hold off on anointing the Packers too…)

I made the mistake of turning NFL Countdown on for background noise while I edited Brandon’s Charles Barkley SNL recap, and in between Tom Jackson’s hyperbole, the weird supposedly musical noises coming from Cris Carter, and Chris Berman’s grunt-speak, I was floored by just how simplistic and ignorant each of these so-called “experts” was sounding in discussing (if you can call it that) the Saints’ next game.

Keyshawn Johnson summed it up when he said, to paraphrase, “I don’t think the 49ers can score 28 points on the Saints’ defense, but the Saints can definitely put up 45 on the 49ers.”

Oh really, Keyshawn?

Well, just as you surely are capable of doing or saying something with an ounce of humility, I suppose highly unlikely events like the Saints putting up 45 on the great San Fran defense are, technically, possible. But you might want to do some actual research, actually take a look at some statistics, before spouting off such asinine nonsense.

Here are a few reasons 49ers fans should just chuckle to themselves confidently every time a media member starts discussing the Saints moving onto the NFC Championship Game as being inevitable.

Image source: Here

1. The Saints Are Magic At Home, But Mortal On The Road

If this game were in New Orleans, I’d jump right on the Saints bandwagon with everyone else. They are damn near unbeatable in the Superdome. The Saints are 9-0 at home this year, with victories by 17, 7, 55, 11, 25, 14, 29, 28, and 17.

So not only has no one beaten the Saints in New Orleans, but only one team has come within a touchdown of the Saints at home, the Texans back in Week 3. And three of those last four scores came against playoff teams.

But on the road, on typically slower surfaces without their rabid fans, the Saints have not been nearly as imposing.

The Saints lost three times on the road this year. One loss came against the Packers in Week 1, so there is no shame there. The other two losses came against Tampa Bay and St. Louis, so there is great shame there. While you can chalk those two terrible losses up to New Orleans just overlooking those two woeful teams, what’s to say they don’t overlook the 49ers too? They did it last year in the playoffs, and the Seahawks beastmoded them right back home.

Regardless of how Saints supporters will explain away those losses, and to be fair New Orleans has won its last three on the road and last nine overall, there is no question that the Drew Brees-led offense is far less potent on the road.

In nine home games this year, New Orleans has scored 374 points, 46.75 points per game. That is ridiculous. But in eight road games, New Orleans only scored 207 points, 25.88 points per game, and in none of those games did the Saints play the league’s #1 scoring defense, which resides in San Francisco.

Which leads me to important point #2:

2. The 49ers Are Also Magic At Home, Mortal On The Road

Why is no one talking about this?

Wait, let me rephrase that, because surely informed, insightful NFL analysts are somewhere. (Right?)

Why are none of the football buffoons shoved down our throats on Sunday morning talking about this?

Guess who else has been outstanding at home this year. That’s right: the San Francisco 49ers. No, San Fran is not undefeated at home, but they are 7-1 in Candlestick, winners of their last six, and the only game they lost was one in which they outplayed the Cowboys but allowed the game to get to overtime where they were done in by the immortal Jessie Holley.

Consider these eight numbers: 17, 24, 3, 10, 20, 7, 0, 3. These are the point totals San Francisco has given up at home this year. If you’re scoring at home, that’s 84 points in eight games, or 10.4 points per game. No, none of those teams featured an offense as great as the Saints, but that is canceled out by the point I’ve already made: that the Saints’ 21-point average decrease in scoring on the road did not include any games against teams with the defensive prowess of San Francisco.

As you might expect, the 49ers’ offense is also much better at home. Here are their offensive outputs at home this year: 33, 24, 48, 20, 27, 23, 26, 20. That’s 221 points at home, for a supposedly “bad”  offense. That equals out to 27.6 points per game. For perspective, check out how that compares to the Saints’ average output on the road. (It’s almost two full points higher.)

Am I saying that the 49ers will have the better offense next Sunday? No. These Saints are a remarkable unit with a great QB, a great architect, terrific skills players, and they are on a roll. But don’t expect the 45-point Saints on Sunday like Meshawn assumes.

If the Saints hit their road scoring average of 26 points, they will score more against the 49ers than anyone did in San Francisco all year. They are certainly capable, but as the numbers above prove, the 49ers are also capable of putting up points, especially against a defense that is far more generous than their own (21.2 points per game given up, on average; 24.5 in road games).

3. Who’s Got The A Psychological Edge Better Than The 49ers? No-BODY!

As soon as the Saints won last night, I fully expected the majority of the media and fans to give them a pass to the NFC Championship Game. Something tells that while Jim Harbaugh may seethe about this outwardly, he is probably ecstatic inside.

If the Lions had won, San Francisco would be facing the Giants-Falcons winner. The 49ers already beat the Giants at home, and the Falcons are not exactly an imposing playoff presence on the road. In either case, over-confidence combined with rust from the bye week could have been an issue for San Francisco.

Because New Orleans won, the 49ers get to face a team they surely won’t take lightly, and they will do so with the us-against-the-world, nobody-believes-in-us mentality that is so often a part of the formula for upsets in big games (for those of you who would consider this an upset). If you don’t think Jim Harbaugh will play this particular motivational card to perfection, you haven’t been following the 49ers this year.

Example: The 49ers absolutely were shat on by the NFL schedule-makers this year. They played five games in the Eastern time zone this season, once having to do it in back-to-back weeks and another time have to do it on a short week (Thanksgiving). This has typically been a nightmare scenario for west coast teams, especially when the games are early starts as four of these games were.

Yet San Francisco went 4-1 in these five games. Why? Because Jim Harbaugh is proving himself as a master motivator and prescient manager of his football team.

The first two of these games came in succession in Weeks 3 and 4, so Harbaugh had the team stay in Ohio in between games. The trip not only served as a bonding experience for the team, but also a tremendous confidence builder. Harbaugh played it perfectly.

Why should we expect anything different from him this week? Harbaugh has pushed all the right buttons this year, and he’s got an easy one to push this week. It’s not often that a talented, confident 13-3 team coming off a first round bye and playing at home can play the no-on-believes-in-us card. San Fran can, and it will help to ensure razor-sharp focus and winning energy, especially early in this game.

4. San Fran Ain’t Afraid Of No Saints

Sure, the 49ers’ defensive coaches will likely have insomnia this week as they break down film of the Saints’ offense; but the players only have to converse with the ghosts of 2010 to realize that they’ve got the Saints right where they want them.

Image credit: Marcio Jose Sanchez via SFGate.com

Last season, in Week 2, the Saints beat the 49ers 25-22 in Candlestick. Remember, this was in the midst of the 49ers terrible 0-5 start to the season. The 49ers tied it at 22-22 late, but Drew Brees engineered a quick, efficient drive to set up the game-winning field goal.

A few interesting stats from that game:

• San Fran outgained the Saints 417-287
• Drew Brees was about as good as he could be (28-38, 254 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) and the Saints still needed a last second field goal to win
• San Fran lost the turnover battle 4-0…this year, no team has a better turnover margin than the 49ers

What does this result from last year mean? Not a whole hell of a lot, as 16 months have passed since it happened, and Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles have made the Saints infinitely more dangerous now than they were then. But, a lot of the current 49ers played prominent roles in that game, and walked away from it thinking they gave the game away. It suggests that San Francisco will respect the Saints without fearing them, which is the perfect mindset to have heading into a playoff game.

Conclusion

With all of the above said, I’m not ready to pick this game yet. That will come later in the week. But I am certainly not giving the Saints an automatic pass to the next round like so many other NFL analysts seem willing to do. It’s just lazy, ignorant, prisoner-of-the-moment “analysis” that the four points above highlight.

We’ll have to wait until next Saturday afternoon to see what the ultimate outcome is, but in the meantime don’t listen to the talking heads. This game is far from a foregone conclusion. In fact, it just may be the best game of the Divisional Round.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

• Bengals-Texans Date, Time, and TV: Saturday, January 7th at 4:30 on NBC
• Bengals-Texans Announcers: Tom Hammond, Mike Mayock, and Alex Flanagan
• Bengals-Texans Point Spread: Texans -4 (up from -3 earlier in the week)
• Bengals-Texans Over-Under: 39
• Bengals-Texans Spread Pick: I know that the trendy pick here will be Cincinnati because they have the hot young studs in AJ Green and Andy Dalton while the Texans are a mess at QB and have dealt with injuries all year. I’m still picking the Texans though, mainly because they are at home. Houston fans have been waiting for this moment ever since pro football came back to the city. While I don’t think NFL fans can will a team to victory like fans can in college basketball, if there is any place in the NFL that could do it, it would be partisans in Reliant Stadium on Saturday afternoon. Houston still has an effective ground game, plus Andre Johnson back to keep defenses honest. The return of Wade Phillips will also help the defense, as it did in Week 17. And Cincinnati, as exciting as they are with their young talent, still has a lot of young talent in key positions. Their time will come, I think; it just won’t be this day. Bengals-Texans free pick: Texans -4 (No change in my pick, as Andy Dalton’s bout with the flu this week has me even more worried about how he will play.)
  
• MSF: Bengals-Texans Preview and Prediction

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

• Lions-Saints Date, Time, and TV: Saturday, January 7th at 8:00 on NBC
• Lions-Saints Announcers: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya
• Lions-Saints Point Spread: Saints -10.5 (same as earlier in the week)
• Lions-Saints Over-Under: 58.5
• Lions-Saints Spread Pick: TAKE THE OVER!!! That’s my pick. Though, I have to say, now that everyone is commenting on how attractive the over is, I’m starting to think this might be one of those games that defies expectation and becomes lower scoring than we think. … Ah hell, what am I saying, not a chance. Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford are going to be directing a spectacular fireworks show on Saturday, and it will make this the most entertaining game of the weekend. I just don’t think it will be particularly close. Atlanta always plays the Saints tough, yet New Orleans throttled them two weeks ago on MNF. Last week, the Saints throttled a Carolina team that had been playing much better football of late. If Detroit couldn’t be the Packers with Matt Flynn at QB and no Greg Jennings, what makes us think they can compete in New Orleans against Drew Brees and a healthy complement of weapons? Regardless though, congrats to the Lions for making it this far. Even with a loss Saturday, this season is an unequivocal victory for Detroit. Lions-Saints free pick: Saints -10.5

We should have a Saints-Lions preview up later on in the day.