A sports blog by and for Midwest Sports Fans
After going 4-0 during Wild Card Weekend, I feel back a bit this past weekend. I went 2-2, nailing the San Francisco and New York games while missing rather badly on the Patriots and Ravens victories (I thought Denver would keep it close and Baltimore would dominate…whoops!).
After an up and down regular season in which I needed a furious finish to end up over .500, I couldn’t have started the playoffs out with any more momentum. I nailed all four games last week, and I’m even going to give myself extra credit for making the Giants -3 my lock, since they delivered the most dominant win of the weekend.
Now it’s time to move onto the divisional round.
Well friends, I did not achieve my goal of a season-long winning percentage of over 50%. I finished the year at 115-113-8, a win percentage of 48.7%. My won/loss percentage though was over the .500 line, so at least I kept my head above water from that respect.
There were a few errors in the TV schedule info originally published with this post. The NFL pulled a few last-minute switcheroos with game times. It’s been updated. Also, the Steelers-Browns pick is in.
After two straight 11-5 weeks, which pulled my record over .500, I fell back to Earth a little bit last week, going just 8-8 and missing on my lock pick of Atlanta covering the 6.5 against New Orleans.
Still, ever since my one week hiatus in Week 13, I am 30-18, so I’m still feeling good and riding a nice wave of momentum.
Update: The late-arriving spreads are in…and now so are my picks for those games.
Three weeks ago, I was not feeling good. I was 78-87-7 on the season and so dejected that I let someone else do my picks for the week – a task I have faithfully completed here at MSF every week for the last three years.
But apparently the one week hiatus was exactly what I needed to get back on the right track.
Update: The late-arriving spreads have arrived! All picks are in.
So maybe I’m the Tim Tebow of picking games?
Obviously this is a ridiculous analogy, because the pious Tebow surely would never indulge in such hedonistic pursuits as gambling or, in my case, analyzing spreads and picking games for sport with no monetary investment.
But the evidence of my Tebowness as a handicapper is building.
Update: All spreads and picks are in!
Yes, I took a one week hiatus in Week 13. There were a couple of reasons for this.
First, I was crazy busy. It got late in the week, I realized I hadn’t done the picks column yet, and I panicked. I know that many of you read this column religiously every week, and I appreciate it more than I can express. If I couldn’t get to it, I wanted to make sure someone did; and I see Kurt’s weekly NFL picks pop up in my Facebook feed every week, so I figured why not him?
Update: All but one of the spreads are in now. Post updated with the late-addition spreads and my picks.
Damnit.
Another subpar week (4-7-2) has me at 72-78-7 for the season, a winning percentage of 45.9%. That just sucks. We all figured this season would be a bit unpredictable because of the lockout, and certainly it has been (the 49ers are 9-1!!!), but I never thought I’d struggle this much.
It’s time for a strong finish down the stretch, beginning with this week’s Thanksgiving Day games.
Well okay. After two straight weeks of being at least three games below .500, I can’t be too disappointed in an 8-7 week that featured such awful predictions as Carolina (-3) over Tennessee, the Lions (+2.5) over the Bears, and the Jets (-1) over the Patriots. Each of those games was a blowout in the direction opposite of what I picked.
So 8-7? I’ll take it. It brings me to 68-71-5 on the year, so I’ll hold out totally irrational hope that I can get back to .500 this week.
I wish I had better news to report to you about my Week 8 performance, but it appears that my return from the depths was short-lived.
Well that sucked.
After going 21-11 during Weeks 3 and 4 to surge well over .500, I’ve hit the skids with my worst ever two week stretch during the 3+ years that I’ve been picking NFL games against the spread. I am 8-16-2 since the byes started in Week 5, with an especially horrific 3-9-1 last week. That’s just terrible. So I’m now 44-42-4 on the season, a 48.9% winning clip (since I conservatively count pushes as losses).
Let’s turn the page and move onto better times here in Week 7, and I’ll tell you why I’m wholly confident moving forward despite these last two terrible weeks.
[Editor's note: Spreads for the Monday night games have been added and picks posted.]
For the third straight year, our weekly NFL coverage will include a Bettor’s Guide and a Viewer’s Guide to get you ready for that week’s action in the National. Football. LEAGUE.
In the Bettor’s Guide, normally posted on Tuesdays, we run down the point spreads and over-unders for each game, and I give my against-the-spread picks. The Viewer’s Guide, typically posted on Wednesdays, runs down the TV listings and announcer assignments for each game.
And for those of you wondering whether you should pay attention to my picks, I’ve been relatively successful the last two years since I started doing this post every week. In 2009, I was somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 games over .500 for the season. Last year, I went 131-103-8.
Longtime readers of MSF know that I never wager money on sporting events, but I do enjoy the challenge of picking games against Vegas spreads. My methodology is simple: I get the earliest spreads during the week and post my initial gut reaction. That’s it. And as my records show, it’s been a successful strategy.
It’s true what they say about preseason sports predictions being a lot like assholes. “Everyone’s got ‘em, and most of ‘em stink.” (Or something like that.) Yet here I am, sitting down to type out my bold predictions for the 2011 NFL season.
And I have to admit, I’m actually feeling rather emboldened by how my bold predictions for 2010 turned out.
Remember how Brett Favre returning was supposed to give the Vikings one more shot at glory? I correctly predicted they would not make the playoffs, and they didn’t.
Remember how last year was going to be the year for the Houston Texans, the one when they finally overtook Peyton and the Colts? I correctly predicted that a) they would beat Indianapolis in Week 1, but then that b) they’d let their fans down once again. How is that for specificity?
There were other hits (that Chris Johnson wouldn’t lead the league in rushing coming off of his 2,000 yard season) and a few misses (Dolphins and 49ers in the playoffs? What was I thinking…?) but all in all I’d say it was a pretty successful stab at predicting a wildly unpredictable league.
So here we go again: six bold predictions for the 2011 NFL season.
Thanks to the Pack and the Steelers, I got off to a great 2-0 start on Saturday. Unfortunately, the Seahawks (who I at least thought would give the Bears a game) and the Patriots (who I thought would steamroll the Jets) let me down on Sunday. So for the second straight week, I was 2-2, bringing me to 4-4 thus far in the playoffs and 135-107-8 for the season.
My faith in the Packers continues to pay off. I have picked them the last two weeks, with supreme confidence, and they have come through both times. This week, however, the Packers are not a road dog; they are a road favorite. Can I be so bold as to pick them again?
Below you will find my pick for the epic Bears-Packers NFC Championship Game as well as the Steelers-Jets matchup in the AFC Championship Game.
